VTT TECHNOLOGY STUDIES

Torsti LoikkanenResearch Manager

VTT Technology Studies (VTT-TS)http//www.vtt.fi/ttr/indexe.htm

Mutual Learning Workshop 2nd December 2005, IPTS, Seville

Foresight in Policy Making System –Finnish Perspectives

VTT TECHNOLOGY STUDIES

Outline

h Personal views on (mainly technology) foresight in Finlandh Role of learning – Nonaka´s SECI modelh Research profile of VTT Innovation Policy Studiesh Assessment of (technology) foresighth How to link past, current and future in innovation policy

studies?h How to link different phases of policy-making h Policy-making, policy-makers and foresight

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Views on foresight in Finland

h Tradition: practical applying of new concepts NSI, cluster analysis.. by NCST and policy-makers (e.g. national R&D cluster programs)

h Foresight tradition: Rome Club, TA/TF of Future Committee of Parliament, regional foresights, VTT & Tekes activities, ...

h Recent policy initiatives: National Platform (survey), Finsight by Tekes and Academy, VTT activities (internal, services) spurred also by globalization

h Industry (besides internal strategic foresight) engaged in public initiatives (e.g. Nordic hydrogen, several TRMs) also spurred by globalization

h Nordic initiatives : Survey, H2-TF, Foresight Platform, ICT... h Participation in EU level and global activities (e.g. NISTEP/Japan, US

institutes, GRA…)h Foresight, planning, implementation and evaluation & impact assessment

of policy-making still distinct procedures => linking of exercises and actors => increasing interest of policy-makers (also) in foresight?

h Convergence of future studies and technology foresight communities?

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WP 6Vision Seminar

WP 1Preliminary studies

WP

2 W

eb S

ite&

Info

rmat

ion

WP 3 Identifying Barriers & Carriers

WP 5Scenario Workshop

WP 7S & T Roadmap Seminar

WP 8Action Seminar

WP 9World Hydrogen

EnergyConference

WP 10Reporting

WP 11Nordic Conference

WP 12Evaluation

WP 4 System

s Analysis&

T

echnological Assessm

entObjectives h To develop socio-technical scenarios for a future

hydrogen society and explore roads to commercialisation in production, transport, storage and utilisation

h To contribute as decision support for companies, research institutes and public authorities to order to prioritise R&D and to develop effective framework policies.

h To maintain and develop scientific and industrial networks

Technology ForesightHydrogen Energy Foresight in the Nordic Countries

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Tacit

knowledge

Tacit

knowledge

Explicit

Explicit

Tacit knowledge Tacit knowledge

Explicit knowledge Explicit knowledge

Fieldbuilding

Linkingexplicitknowledge

Dialogue

Learning by doing

Socialization Externalization

Internalization Combination

• Työryhmät• Paneelit• Projektiryhmät• Johto- ja tukiryhmät• Tutkijaverkostot• Kansalaisfoorumit

• Pilotointi• T&K-työ• Strategiatyö• Painotukset• Priorisoinnit• Voimavarojen

kohdennus

• Asiantuntijahaastattelut• Aivoriihet• Työpajat• Mind Mapping• Internet-pohjaiset Delphi

ym. kyselyt

• Ennakointiraportit• Teknologialistat, päätöspuut• Patentti- & julkaisuanalyysit• Skenaariot• SWOT-analyysi• Teknologiakartat• Riski- ja elinkaarianalyysit

(SECI-malli, ks. Nonaka, 1994; Nonaka & Takeuchi, 1995)

SECI model

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Development of specific and integrated technologies (technology foresights, technology road maps)Development of economic and social environment of technological changeTechnology paradigms and development trendsTechnological change and industrial structures

Development of specific and integrated technologies (technology foresights, technology road maps)Development of economic and social environment of technological changeTechnology paradigms and development trendsTechnological change and industrial structures

Impact assessment of technological change (ex-ante / ex-post, constructive technology assessment)Co-evolution of technological, social and economic change; social shaping of technologyValue basis and ethical aspects of technological changeTechnology policy, institutions and regulation

Impact assessment of technological change (ex-ante / ex-post, constructive technology assessment)Co-evolution of technological, social and economic change; social shaping of technologyValue basis and ethical aspects of technological changeTechnology policy, institutions and regulation

Innovation processes and dynamics of innovation & innovation modelsR&D inputs and outputs of companiesR&D strategy and management in companies Impacts of globalisation

Innovation processes and dynamics of innovation & innovation modelsR&D inputs and outputs of companiesR&D strategy and management in companies Impacts of globalisation

SFINNO data basis: Maintenance, up-dating and complementingSFINNO based analyses on company, technology, industrial branch, and macro levels

SFINNO data basis: Maintenance, up-dating and complementingSFINNO based analyses on company, technology, industrial branch, and macro levels

Rationale (strategy) and performance (efficiency, effectiveness) of innovation policyCo-operation of private and public partners, complementarity between public sector to private sectorConditions providing innovation policyInnovation environments and innovation systems

Rationale (strategy) and performance (efficiency, effectiveness) of innovation policyCo-operation of private and public partners, complementarity between public sector to private sectorConditions providing innovation policyInnovation environments and innovation systems

1. National regional innovation policyRegional innovation strategies and policiesNational entrepreneurship and employment programs2. International cross-border innovation policyERA plan of EU, regional innovation policy of EU, e.g. ESR and innovation activities

1. National regional innovation policyRegional innovation strategies and policiesNational entrepreneurship and employment programs2. International cross-border innovation policyERA plan of EU, regional innovation policy of EU, e.g. ESR and innovation activities

Foresight of technological development

Impact assessment ofregional innovation

policy

Innovations and industrial renewalEmergence, diffusion, embedding, promotion,

innovation environment

Anticipatory technology assessment

Impact assessment of national & EU innovation policy

VTT Innovation Policy Studies

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What (technology) foresight is about..

Foresight may ● improve understanding of impacts of technologies and edge conditions ● support dialogue and strategic choices of alternative technological

development paths ● promote networking of experts, different audiences, citizens● contribute for future oriented insights and conditions for consensus ● support prioritization of R&D activities and R&D resource allocation ● many foresighted technologies have realisedComplicated because.. ● technological change is inherently uncertain ● innovations relate to information asymmetries between present and future ● innovation process is not only influenced by future uncertainties but also

generates uncertainties (Metcalfe 1995)

● Not mechanistic tool giving answers for future challenges, rather a tool to manage with future uncertainties in a systematic and diverse manner

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What (technology) foresight is about..

● in Europe often intended to reach consensus about promising technologies, related priority setting and policy measures

● in Japan not for building consensus, direct influence on technology policy and priority setting rather limited (e.g. Shimoda 2003) –changingnow and in the future?

● context dependent – national, regional, economic, social, cultural ● history dependent - past innovation pattern and related policy are

indispensable elements for foresight of future innovation patterns ● regulation and socioeconomic problems matter, e.g. Kioto protocol

gives relatively precise framework conditions for future energy sources, ageing gives requirements to technology development, etc. ……hence, foresight may be somewhat “easier” in areas of regulation, standardization etc. than in areas of free market demand => towards (societal) demand oriented innovation policy

● social, ethical, sustainability, responsibility aspects in the future?

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Source: Blind et al. 2004

Types of regulations and their impacts on innovation

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Past, current and future in innovation research - towards integration?

… outlining the future development path on a basis of integrated analysis of the past, current and future...

t

... from past ...

…to foresight ...

… to present ...

Future oriented researchInnovation studies based on SFINNO database(”ex-post”)Impact assessment and evaluation studies (policies, programmes, institutions) on national and EU level

Embedding (”rooting”) of innovations and technologyassessmentImpact assessment and evaluation studies

Technology foresight (”ex-ante”)technology asessmentTechnology roadmapsTechnology barometer

EX POST POLICY EVALUATION

FUTURE ORIENTED POLICY STUDIES

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SHORT TERM MID TERM LONG TERM

ECO

NO

MIC

IMPA

CTS

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ormore years

h Award/participant characteristics

h R&D partneringh Acceleration of R&Dh Innovative Technology

Development- Patents- Publications- Competitive Advance- Prototype products &

processes

h Commercial Activity- New Products- New Processes- Licensing

h Attraction of Capitalh Strategic Alliancesh Company Growth

h Broad national economic benefits - Return on investment

- Public- Private- Social

- Inter Industry Diffusion

- Increased GDP & taxbase

- Societal impacts

Total Economic Benefits

Benefitsto Awardees

Complete Projects

Post-Project Period

Announce Competition

Announce Award

Impact assessment: what we measure when

Source: U.S. ATP

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Conclusions of Sevilla WS

hRTD policies will be broadened to other policies hParticipatory foresight

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Some conclusions

Challenges e.g.hDiscontinuity? “once in lifetime” exercises vs, permanent

“platforms”? hPast – current – future scheme in systemic policy making: foresight

of rationale / strategy, implementation, evaluation and impact assessment, performance improvement => towards common learning of actors

hMethodology: choices case by case according to goals and objectives of project/program; new combinations

Impacts and benefitsh indicators and measurement of (un)learning (cf. ESTO, ETEPS..)hFrom “bottom-up” culture towards more aware “top down” practicesPromotion of benchmarking hProblems largely common – benefits of benchmarkinghSufficient resources necessary condition for successful impacts (or

to see whether there are impacts!)hWhat are most beneficial collaboration forms between national and

European activities?

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KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY BAROMETER

Mika NaumanenTechnology Studies

VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland