Foresight Exchange Workshop

“How to integrate agriculture and environmental

stakes in foresights?”

Beijing , 16th October 2011

With the support of the following institutions:

Presentation n°8 (B. Hubert, Agropolis International)PARME Forward Thinking

Bernard Hubert, Agropolis International Chair, project coordinator

Foresight Exchange Workshop - Beijing – 16 October 2011

PARME Forward Thinking WorkshopPArtenariats et Recherche en MEditerran ée

A meeting of civilisations !

What are the major issues the region has to face from now to 2030 ?

What research priorities and what partnerships to challenge these issues ?

The Mediterranean Basin: � A bio-geographical entity … complex

� An historical and cultural whole…diversified

� A changing world, sensitive to global change: economics, policies, climate …

� Link peoples destinies: the Euro-Mediterranean !

Main trends

� Population increase but limited by demographic transition

� Concentration in urban and coastal areas

� In the South and East a secularization process which will go on despite state policies

� Social inequities between North and South and within North and South

� Agricultural and food security (and food safety) issues becomingmore and more critical (land tenure, concentration, urban development …)

� Crucial changes in the Mediterranean diet (quality and diversity)

� An increasing dependency of the Mediterranean area in energy andfood supply

� A strong domination of fossil resources for energy

� A tremendous increase in water demand for domestic, industrial and agricultural uses

Breakings and crises

� Any agricultural or food security crisis at the global level will impact the Mediterranean (price volatility, diseases, climate change, overfishing, insufficient stocks, urban bias …)

� The water resources situation is still very critical from now and at the scope of climate change

� A sanitary crisis is not improbable

� An economic crisis in the South Mediterranean could happen

� Technological progress in regard of energy or agriculture

Signals, levers et current transitions

� Current changes in « family » structure

� An increase in agricultural and fishing productivity

� Significant progress in survey, control and diagnosis systems:

networking around the Mediterranean on issues like human and animal health (BioHealth Med, REMSA)

� A better access, sharing and ‘mutualization’ of scientific and local knowledge

� New patterns of food transformation, commoditization and consumption

� Overcoming the dualism between monoculture (irrigated?) and integrated systems, more ecologically based, entrepreneurial and small farming

� Supply vs demand water policies

Some shared questions

A biogeographical dimension :

� crossroads of tropical, arid and temperate influences with additional Mediterranean specificities

� unique reservoir of diverse and dynamic genetic resources (animal and plant) as well as insects and pests

A recent trend in demographic development and concentrationof the population on the shoreline:

� adopting an urban lifestyle with consumption patterns based on exogenous models and imported products,

� leading to a growing divide between the shoreline and the upcountry

� new forms of poverty (both urban and rural),

� new web of landscapes and problems related to the management of residual land at risk (soil degradation, weak management of

Men and women, societies and territoriesI

Natural resourcesII

Preserving Mediterranean ecosystems, long-anthropised environments

� Long-lasting anthropised environments !

� Adaptive management of ecosystems (multi-use)

� Characterise ecological services of forest, rangelands, riparian, wetlands

� Design adapted production systems to local conditions

� Special issue on fire hazards

Water and soils at stake !

It is essential, therefore, to begin today to design new ways of water management, to ensure greater equity and efficiency of resource use and to monitor its impact on ecosystems, soils and societies at different levels of organisation.

� Mechanistic approaches to the soil/water/vegetation continuum

� Water cycle modelling at different spatial and temporal scales

� Effect of global changes on soil structure and capacity

� Soil biological activity � Land and plant management methods for the

optimisation of “green water”� Remediation of degraded soils� Knowledge of traditional soil conservation

systems� Trade-offs water/energy

Agriculture, food & healthIII

Designing of innovative production systems suited to global changes

� Characterisation and analysis of technical, spatial and organisational dynamics of Mediterranean production systems

� Improvement of the productivity of rainfed farming and rangelands, crop-livestock farming systems

� Optimisation of water efficiency in rainfed and irrigated cropping systems

� Development of participatory design approaches

� Multi-criteria evaluation tools for agricultural practices and cropping systems

� Understanding of how plants adapt to environmental constraints

� Taking advantage of spontaneous and domesticated biodiversity in Mediterranean agricultural and animal husbandry systems

New partnerships: building an interactive regional virtual laboratory in a globalised world

� Multilateral settings : develop collaborations in order to enhance systemic and integrative approaches

� Create regional and long term observation systems and design indicators (demography, biodiversity, water resources, land market …)

� Develop networks of Research/Training/development platforms (coastal areas, hydrological basins, typical products …)

� Monitoring of socio-demographic cohorts: genetics, food behaviours, lifestyles …

� Work in close partnership with the main stakeholders and develop concrete field actions (innovation centres …)

� Create a permanent setup of watch and foresight on current and future changes: to be able to anticipate and to take a resolutely exploratory approach in order to expand societies capacity for foresight and adaptive management