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This is a presentation that discusses a few important issues related to inbound tourists to India. This is a part of a study related to forecasts of inbound tourists to India which I did during the beginning of the year 2010.
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Foreign Tourist Inflow to India
An Overview
May 21, 2010
Dripto Mukhopadhyay
A few Issues Highlighted in this presentation• Inflow from different regions of the world
• Predominance of a few regions
• Seasonality in tourist inflow
Estimated Total Foreign Tourist Arrival to India
during 1010
Year
Most likely
scenario
Optimistic
scenario
Pessimistic
scenario
2010 5532180 5854723 5224443
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
18000001996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
To
uri
st A
rriv
al
Fig 1: Tourist Arrival to India from Different Region
North America
East Eupora
SE Asia
C & S America
West Asia
East Asia
Australia
West Europe
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
Tou
rist
Arr
ival
s
Fig 2: Tourist Arrival to India- A Better view of Less Imp. Regions
East Eupora
SE Asia
C & S America
West Asia
East Asia
Australia
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
Shar
e
Fig 3: Region-Wise Share of Tourist Arrivals to India
North America
East Eupora
SE Asia
C & S America
West Asia
East Asia
Australia
West Europe
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
10.0
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
Sah
re
Fig 4: Share of Toruist Arrivals to India - Selected Regions
East Eupora
SE Asia
C & S America
West Asia
East Asia
Australia
A Few Observations
• Couple of regions, West Europe and North America are the major source regions.
• These two regions account for about 70% of the total inbound tourists to India
• West Europe is the region which contributes about 45 to 50% of the total tourists
• However, the gap between West Europe and North America in terms of number and share to total tourists is reducing over time consistently, though the gap is still significantly large.•
A Few Observations
• Amongst the lesser important region in terms of inbound tourists to India, South East Asia and East Asia are coming upSignificantly.
• A close look at the numbers suggest that a significant change in foreign tourist arrivals have taken place from 2002/03 onwards. This is true for almost every source region.
• Opening up of the economy and initiatives towards promoting Indian tourism are the major reasons
• Incredible India campaign has also played a significant positive role.
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
Incre
ase
in
'000
Fig: Contribution by Regions to Increase in Tourist
N. America
E. Eupora
SE Asia
C & S America
W. Asia
E. Asia
Australia
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60%
Gro
wth
Number of tourist
North America
East Eupora
SE Asia
C & S America
West Asia
East Asia
Australia
West Europe
A Few Observations
• If one looks at year to year change in number of number of tourists from different regions, an erratic movement can be identified. •
• This involves several internal as well as external reasons which includes macro-economic situations of the source regions coupled with internal factors such as terrorist activities as well as some policy issues.
•The direction of growth fro almost every source country is more or less similar though in varying degree.
•However, a few regions like C & S America, high growth, positive or negative, is more because of lower base number of tourists
Seasonality in arrivals of foreign tourists
• Foreign tourists arrivals in India is characterized with marked seasonal differences
• The data on inbound tourists arrivals to India are available for four quarters of the year, viz., 1) January to March,2) April to June, 3) July to September and 4) October to December
• For every region under study, it was observed that the quarter October to December received maximum number of inbound tourists followed by January to March. This trend has prevailed for through out the time span reported in this presentation.
• In case of a couple regions, West Europe, South East Asia and East Asia, number of tourist arrivals are almost similar during these two quarters.
• Perhaps the most important reason behind concentration of inbound tourists during these two quarters are the weather, especially for liesuretourism purpose.
• The only exception is West Asia, where July to September quarter is higher than other quarters significantly. Perhaps, this is dominated more by the business tourists compared to leisure tourists.
0
500000
1000000
1500000
20000001
99
5
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
No
. of
Tou
rist
s
Years
Quarterly Tourist Arrival to India -World
Jan- Mar
April-Jun.
Jul.-Sept.
Oct- Dec. 0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
No
. o
f T
ou
rist
s
Years
Quaterly Tourist Arrival to India -North America
Jan- Mar
April-Jun.
Jul.-Sept.
Oct- Dec.
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
No
. o
f T
ou
rist
s
Years
Quaterly Tourist Arrival to India -East Europe
Jan- Mar
April-Jun.
Jul.-Sept.
Oct- Dec.
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
No
. o
f T
ou
rist
s
Quaterly Tourist Arrival to India -South East Asia
Jan- Mar
April-Jun.
Jul.-Sept.
Oct- Dec.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
180001995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
No
. o
f T
ou
rist
sQuaterly Tourist Arrival to India -
Central and South America
Jan- Mar
April-Jun.
Jul.-Sept.
Oct- Dec.
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
No
. o
f T
ou
rist
s
Quaterly Tourist Arrival to India -West Asia
Jan- Mar
April-Jun.
Jul.-Sept.
Oct- Dec.
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
No
. o
f T
ou
rist
s
Quaterly Tourist Arrival to India -East Asia
Jan- Mar
April-Jun.
Jul.-Sept.
Oct- Dec.
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
No
. of
Tou
rist
s
Quarterly Tourist Arrival to India - Australia
Jan- Mar
April-Jun.
Jul.-Sept.
Oct- Dec.
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
No
. o
f T
ou
rist
s
Years
Quarterly Tourist Arrival to India -West Europe
Jan- Mar
April-Jun.
Jul.-Sept.
Oct- Dec.
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
To
uri
sts
Quarterly Tourist Arrival to India -Africa
Jan- Mar April-Jun. Jul.-Sept. Oct- Dec.
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
To
uri
sts
Quarterly Tourist Arrival to India -South Asia
Jan- Mar April-Jun. Jul.-Sept. Oct- Dec.
For Whom These Trends are Important
• Hotels and other accommodation related industries
• Logistics and transport operators
• People involved with cultural and in production process of other local products like handicrafts etc.
• Researchers to understand the tourism trajectory
• And, of course the planning professionals
What can be done from this data
• Likely foreign tourist arrivals can be projected using proper econometric forecasting technique/s
• Forecasting should take care of macro-economic conditions of the source countries as well as India
• While forecasting, seasonality aspects need to considered. Recently I forecasted annual inbound tourists to India for 2010 through 2015. Instead of a panel of quarterly data for several years or pulled quarterly data, annual tourist data from source regions proved to be a better option.
• Apart from non-availability of several select macro-economic data, huge variation across the quarters was also one of the major obstacles
What can be done from this data
• However, effort for forecasting tourist arrivals from sourceregions for particular quarters can be worth doing fromplanning point of view of severalstakeholders, especially, hospitality and transport operators
