Foreign Policy & different leaders

8/7/2019 Foreign Policy & different leaders

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SUPER SATURDAY:

FIVE KEY FOREIGN POLICYCHALLENGES FOR THE NEW

PRESIDENT

by

Paige Johnson Tan, Ph.D.

Department of Public and International Affairs,UNCW


2/51

What Do You Think?

What do you

think are the topfive foreign

policy

challenges theUS faces?


3/51

President Obamas Foreign Policy

Hints during the campaign

as to how Obama looked at

the world:

Summer 2008 interview,

Obama praised Truman

foreign policy, particularly

Marshall and Kennan. Also praised first President

Bushs foreign policy.


4/51

Obamas Foreign Policy

Distilling from Obama elsewhere duringthe campaign:

Obama's sense of the world was moreoptimistic than his opponents. The dangers

are real but not all-encompassing. Obama spoke less of Islamic extremism in

general and more of Al Qaeda and itsaffiliated groups specifically.

Compared to the Cold War, threatsreduced.

Most people in the Muslim world, wantdevelopment and a better life, not jihad.So, work to build the positive, not justcombat the negative.


5/51

Obamas Foreign Policy

Other important tenets:

Importance of Americasreputation and values.

World needs US leadershipto solve problems.

Plans to talk more to foes(Iran, North Korea) andeveryone else too.

More bipartisanship athome in foreign policy.

America must stay calm, notoverreact.


6/51

Setting the Tone:

The Inaugural Address

Very domestic in focus.

Scaled down, not as soaringas some other Obamaspeeches.

Sense was: Were in forsome tough times, but if wepull together and work

hard, well pull through. Foreign policy content was

more limited, but stillimportant.


7/51

Setting the Tone:

The Inaugural Address

To all the other peoples and governments who arewatching today, from the grandest capitals to the smallvillage where my father was born, know that America is a

friend of each nation, and every man, woman and child whoseeks a future of peace and dignity.

Just another line later:

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism andcommunism not just with missiles and tanks, but with the

sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understoodthat our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle usto do as we please. Instead they knew that our powergrows through its prudent use; our security emanates fromthe justness of our cause, the force of our example, thetempering qualities of humility and restraint.


8/51

The World Obama Encounters

Not the world he expected from the campaign to

January 20th.

Probably expected to be the Get-us-out-of-Iraq,Repair-our-international-reputation president.

Instead, hes the Economy president.

Becomes one of the five top issues the presidentencounters, the first Ill discuss this morning.


9/51

Top Challenges: The Economy

Matters for foreign policy.

Resources (hard power)

Dents the supposed US modelof capitalism (and thus oursoft power)

Hit to the budget and USdollar over the long termunknown, threat that peoplewill stop buying our bonds atsome point.

Threat of protectionism anddeglobalization.


10/51

The International Economy: Big Picture

IMF forecasts a global contraction of .5% 1% in

2009, the first in 60 years.

Country GDP Growth

2008

(percentage)

GDP Growth

2009

(forecast)

(percentage)

GDP Growth

2010

(forecast)

(percentage)

US 1.1 -2.6 0.2

Japan -0.7 -5.8 -0.2

Europe 0.9 -3.2 0.1

World 3.2 -0.5-0.7 1.5-2.5

Developing 6.1 1.5-2.5 3.5-4.5


11/51

Not Stimulating Enough

IMF believes 2% of GDP stimulus required. G20

spending 1.5%.

Chief economist: better to do too much than to do too

little. Politicians need to reduce uncertainty or downwardspiral of consumer and producer decisions.

Europe and Japan not doing enough.

China and the US doing more.

US pressures on Europeans to do more on spending,

according to Luxembourg Finance Minister, not to our

liking. Czech PM thought Obamas spending was the

road to hell. (early example of not-Bush-still-problems).


12/51

International Action:

G20 Summit

To restore confidence, growth, and jobs

US$ 5 trillion expansion (already announced)

To repair the financial system, to repair lending Pledge to take action to build a stronger, more globally

consistent supervisory and regulatory framework for the

future financial sector.

Financial Stability Board, early warning ofmacroeconomic and financial risks. If notices problems in

risky behavior, will tell national authorities to regulate

more stringently.

Deal with toxic assets (not a lot of specificity)


13/51

International Action: G20

To strengthen financial regulation and rebuild trust Regulate hedge funds and credit rating agencies.

Tough new principles on bankers pay. Making riskydecisions, pay in shares to be held long term.

Act against tax havens, sanctions. The era of bankingsecrecy is over.

Increase funding from $250 billion to $750 billion at IMF($100 billion from Japan, $100 billion from Europe, $40billion from China), including $250 billion of quantitative

easing, gets money flowing. Commit to reform of vote weight in IMF and WB, heads

appointed through open, merit-based process (IMPORTANTAND MISSED)


14/51

International Action: G20 Summit

To promote global trade and investment and reject

protectionism.

No new trade barriers for 12 months. Agree to minimize impact from domestic policy actions

on trade and investment.

Calls on WTO to report on G20 trade barriers

Commitment to complete Doha


15/51

International Action: G20

To build and inclusive, green, and sustainablerecovery. Recognize human dimensions of the crisis.

MDGs affirmed, commit to maintaining aid despite

crisis. Selling of $6 billion of IMF gold to help

developing world (These are loans at concessionalrates, not aid).

Reaffirm commitment to control climate change,make a success of Copenhagen at the end of the

year. Analysis: No new stimulus (France, Germany),

didnt rule out more spending in future (US)And, Michelle Obama touched the queen, morewhat the media was interested in!!


16/51

Raising Barriers

Pledged to combat protectionism,but according to the World Bank,17 of 20 members of G20including the US have put in place47 new trade barriers since the

crisis hit. Russia used cars

Ecuador 600 items!

China ban Irish pork, someBelgian chocolates.

India Chinese toys and steel. EU export subsidies.

US bailout of automakers.

World Bank President: Manynations are falling for the siren

song of protectionist fixes.


17/51

The Economy: Europe

Exposure to Eastern Europe:Austrian banks lending in the east,80% of Austrias GDP!

Economic decline: Unemploymentin Spain 15% in 2009, 20% in2010. 2009 -3 to -5% GDP.

Ireland: 2009 -5% GDP,

unemployment 11% Necessity of bailout, inability to

agree, insufficient domesticstimulus, according to IMF.


18/51

The Economy:

Eastern Europe

Crisis caused by of over-borrowing, particularly over-borrowing in euros and Swiss francs.

As currencies have slid, burden has become impossible.

Potential for defaults especially strong in Hungary, Ukraine,

Latvia (GDP slide 12% this year, riots pictured above inJanuary).

Other issues: exports plummeting, remittances falling.

Cant recover as Asians did in1998 with exports due to globalnature of slump.

Other Europeans dont want to do the bailout, want IMF.


19/51

The Economy: China

Closing of half Chinas 9,000 toyfactories.

Threat of instability asgovernments pact with the people

based on delivering constantlyimproving standards of living overthe last thirty years.

Challenge to Chinas growth modelas well. Save at home, send goodsabroad. Chinese going to have to

buy more and save less. Changed place for China on the

world stage. $40 billion big timeinternational player.


20/51

Top Challenges: Afghanistan/Pakistan

Obama made the caseduring the campaign thatPresident Bush droppedthe ball in fighting terrorby switching the focusfrom Afghanistan to Iraq.

Pledged to raise thenumber of combat troops

in Afghanistan. Deal with narco-

trafficking, helping tofund Taliban.


21/51

Talking about Terror

Inaugural: And for those who seek to advance their

aims by inducing terror and slaughtering innocents,

we say to you now that our spirit is stronger andcannot be broken -- you cannot outlast us, and we

will defeat you.

Feb 2009 Joint Session speech: pledge to defeat

Al Qaeda and combat extremism.


22/51

Action on Afghanistan/Pakistan

Special Representatives for

AfPak: Holbrooke

Policy review, new troops

on the way.

60 Minutes Interview, calls

Afghanistan a tough nutto crack.


23/51

Get More Out of NATO

In keeping with Obamas desire to do morein Afghanistan and to work more withallies, the administration is pressing alliesto do more in Afghanistan.

VP Biden to Europe in February to deliverthis message.

Obama in France after G20. ToldEuropeans America appreciatedEuropeans fighting alongside us.

Still, war is seen presently as being

Americanized with increased number ofUS troops, unwillingness of allies to puttroops where they might actually have tofight.

Other countries that are fighting: Canada,Netherlands.


24/51

US Goals in Afghanistan

From the State Department website:

A stable, democratic, and economically successful

country.

An Afghan government committed to the protection ofwomen's rights, human rights, and religious tolerance.


25/51

US Tactics

Up number of troops (Iraq)

Up economic development

Outbid Taliban for allies (Iraq)

Press Karzai to crack down oncorruption, opium

Do not allow safe haven in Pakistan

Administration also talking abouttalking to Taliban.

Easier said than done.


26/51

Problems in Afghanistan

Is the Afghangovernment worthsaving?

Attack from the left:end the war in IraqAND end the war inAfghanistan.

Can we achievethose bold goals?


27/51

Elections in Afghanistan

Coming August 20th

Concerns that the South inparticular wont vote.

Went against Taliban warnings

in 2004, but now faith in Karzaimuch reduced.

Fighting intense, regular securitycant be guaranteed for thecitizens, poll security cant be

guaranteed, developmentgoods not being delivered.

If the South doesnt vote,Pashtuns disenfanchised.


28/51

Problems with Pakistan

President Zardari domestic problems, battle with

Sharif, lawyers and courts.

Lawless frontier region (cut deals leaving extremists

in control)

US drone attacks have killed 543 people in

Pakistan, only 12 top Al Qaeda. Resentment.

Makes it difficult for the government of Pakistan,especially a democratic government, to cooperate

with us.


29/51

Top Challenges: Russia

China may be the greater long-term threat tothe United States, but Russia is the moreimmediate bugbear.

Russian oil and gas wealth + high gas prices +

Putins use of nationalism= has led to problemsfor the US.

Illustrations: Medvedevs March 2009 declaration that Russia

is going to engage in a massive re-arming.

2007 claims in the Arctic as extension of Russiascontinental shelf, planting the flag.

Near-flights seen as aggressive by US, UK.

Conflict with Georgia

Despite mugging for the camera at G20 summit,

Medvedev attacks US dollar as global reservecurrency.


30/51

Relations with Russia since the Fall of

the USSR: A Russian Perspective

US gloated over winning the Cold War.

Made Russia eat shit.

US seen as fostering economic policies that caused

pain and decline from Russias status as a

superpower.

Aid paltry.

Oil wealth allowed Russia to swagger again (Putincontract). Booming the last eight years with GDP

growth of 8% annually.


31/51

Policies Aggravating Russia

NATO expansion (Balticsand more? Georgia,Ukraine?)

Abrogation of ABM US attempts to make

bases in the Stanspermanent

Missile defense seeminglyaimed more at Russia thansupposed target Iran.

Kosovo independence.


32/51

Putins Contract Breaking?

We escaped it.

Now it is hitting. Drop oil prices, ruble hasdeclined, major job losses (unemploymentat 7.7%), rising prices of food.

Talking shrinkage of economy 2% this yearopenly, may hit 5-10%. Stockmarket off80%.

Russians cannot finance lifestyles built on

import of food, cars, and tech goods. Will Putin be more tempted to use the

nationalist card to keep his contract inplace? Still at about 65% approval.

Protests in Vladivostok.


33/51


34/51

Top Challenges: Climate Change

During the campaign, climatechange one of Obamas topthreats of the future.

Make US a leader on climatechange.

Grow numbers of green jobs.

Specifically on climate change,committed to reducing green

house gas emissions (1990levels by 2020, 80% down by2050), reverse climatechange.


35/51


36/51

Stern on Climate Plans

Spoke in March: US is back in theclimate change game. We are seizedby the importance and urgency of thetask.

Where to: Copenhagen Conference inDecember 2009, hope to get somethingto replace Kyoto.

Priorities for the US:

Be guided by science

Kyoto seemed tough but with littlebenefits, implication need to correctthat.


37/51

Stern, continued

The United States is committed to reaching a strong internationalagreement in Copenhagen based on both the ambitious actions thatwill be embodied in U.S. domestic law, and on the premise that theagreement will reflect the important national actions of all major

economies to contain their respective emissions. This agreement shouldencourage the most cost-effective reductions including reductionsfrom the use and management of forests . . .

We recognize that developing countries, including emerging marketslike China and India, have entirely legitimate development needs andcannot be asked to forfeit the aspirations of their people to a better

life and a higher standard of living. Even now, for example, nearly35% of Chinese live on less than $2 a day. And Indias per capitaincome and emissions are a fraction of those in OECD countries.

Developing countries too are going to have to make cuts, developedcant do this by themselves, while developing countries emissions grow.


38/51

Pushback/Problems

Attempt to limit carbon is going to hamstring

industry and cost jobs precisely at a time Americas

economy is already hurting.

Congressman Kevin Brady (R) cost us billions!!

Energy-intensive industries will just move abroad,

race to the bottom.

Presidents global warming initiatives not in draftsof Congressional Democrat budget plans.


39/51

Copenhagen

According to UN ClimateChief Yvo de Boer, whatCopenhagen has to deal withis:

How much are industrialcountries willing to reducetheir emissions? Cost toeconomy, especially hard attime of recession. Notimpossible. Industrial leadersasking for predictablepolicies at Davos.

How much are developingcountries like China and Indiawilling to limit growth of theiremissions? Left out of Kyoto.


40/51

Copenhagen, continued

How will financial help be offered to developing

countries for adaptation and mitigation? Costs to

reduce and costs to deal with impacts, rising seas.

How will this money be managed? Developingcountries dont want it to be entirely donor driven.

US negotiators keep in touch with Senate (at Kyoto

agreed to a treaty that could never get past theSenate).

180 countries negotiating in Copenhagen.


41/51

Europeans Proposal

OECD-wide emissions trading by 2015.

Limit warming to 2 degrees above pre-industrial

temperature.

EU estimate: transfer to developing countries E 54

billion (no time frame).

Want air and shipping included in any agreement.

Want developing countries to aim for 15-30%below business as usual by 2020.


42/51

Top Challenges: Iran

Obamas past policy on Iran.

Dem debate: meet with series offoreign leaders.

Refined this position as lead tough,principled diplomacy with theIranian leader at a time and placeof my choosing if and only if itadvances the interests of the UnitedStates.

Not talking doesnt make us looktoughit makes us look arrogant.

Vowed to prevent the Iranians fromacquiring a nuclear weapon. Use

sticks and carrots.


43/51

Iran: Multiple Challenges

Iran, it turns out, poses multiple challenges to the UnitedStates.

Obvious issue of nuclear weapons, missile technology

(Feb satellite launch). But, Irans finger in many other pies where US has

interests.

Supports Hezbollah in Lebanon, affecting Israel and

prospects for Middle East peace. Supports Hamas: ditto.

Allies and activity in Iraq and Afghanistan, too.


44/51

Happy Nowruz!!

Obama issued a March 2009 message to the Iranian

people on the occasion of Nowruz, the Persian new

year.

As with Nowruz, a new beginning in relations between

the US and Iran.

Praises Iranian culture (music, literature) have made the

world a better and more beautiful place. Poet Saadi: The children of Adam are limbs to each

other, having been created of one essence.


45/51

The Nowruz Message

We have serious differences that have grown over

time. My administration is committed to a

diplomacy that addresses the full range of issues

before us, and to pursuing constructive ties amongthe US, Iran, and the international community.

Mentions Islamic Republic taking rightful place in the

community of nations (not regime change) but with

that place comes responsibility (cant use

terror/arms).


46/51

Update

Joint action on Iran at London G20 Summit.

US-Russia statement: While we recognize that underthe NPT Iran has the right to a civilian nuclear program,Iran needs to restore confidence in its exclusively

peaceful nature. Meeting between Holbrooke and Iranian

representatives to talks on Afghanistan to whichObama administration had invited Iran. Mrs. Clintonwarmly responded to Iranian delegates statements on

aid for Afghanistan/crackdown on drug smuggling. Also, passed Iran an unsigned note asking for help with

three Americans.


47/51

The Iranian Response

Khamenei: Points out that HappyNowruz comes just a week afterUS extended economic sanctionson Iran.

Doesnt want to follow this welltalk but while pressuring you.Wants relations based on mutualrespect.

Says Obamas message

reverberates with the rhetoric ofthe Bush era.

Khameneis remarks also showIrans preoccupations.


48/51

More Khamenei

Problems with the US:

Freezing Iranian assets

Green light Saddams attack in 1980

8 years of support of Saddam during Iran-Iraq War Downing Iranian passenger plane

Demands our great and honorable nation be wipedout.

Obama extending hand to us, BUT. If an iron hand is covered with a velvet glove,

extending the hand is insignificant and worthless.


49/51

What Khamenei Wants

Appears to want US to do something real, in advance

of talks to show changed position toward Iran, let up

the pressure.

They say come and talk, come and establish relations,they change slogans. Well, where is the change?

Mentions unfreezing assets, lifting sanctions, giving up

negative propaganda, giving up unconditional support

for Israel.

Will judge the new US administration by its

performance.


50/51

Watch: Iran

Presidential elections coming in June.

Expect discussion of relations with the West and the

US in particular to play a role in the campaign

between Ahmadinejad and any opponent (s).

Government revenues down by half due to crash in

oil price, reducing the countrys room for maneuver.

People aware of prosperity outside and seemfatigued with isolation.


51/51

Challenges

Weve looked at: Economy, Afghanistan/Pakistan,

Russia, Iran, Climate Change.

Important challenges not here: Just no room in a

five top for all the hard work Obama has to do.

Iraq

Israel, the Palestinians, and Arab neighbors

China Much work to be done.

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Foreign Policy & different leaders