Revised regional forecasts 2015
Forecasting the next 30 years of metro development
Ramsey CountyMarch 1, 2016 1
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Todays discussionWhy and how Met Council forecastsWhat data are
considered in the regional and local forecastsParticularly
interaction of land plans, market forces, transportation A view on
the future: Forecast resultsYour questions 2
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Why we forecastForecasts provide a reference as the Council and
local governments prepare plans addressing areas and populations to
be served, the levels, distribution, and staging of services (Minn.
Stat. 473.146) Regional systems are scaled and staged to
accommodate forecasts Local plans accommodate the same growth
forecasts 3
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Metropolitan Council
How we forecast: models Models represent real-world questions in
a simplified wayKey componentsSystem interactions Big-picture view
Allowing freedom to Test alternative scenarios 4
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Forecast models toolkit
A regional economic model for region-level employment and
populationA land use model for allocating future land use,
households and employment to the local levelTravel demand model
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Employment growth: +32%Source: 2010 employment counts from
Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development;
2020-2040 forecasts from Metropolitan Council (July 2015)6
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Population growth: +28%Source: 2010 data on population and
households from Census Bureau; 2020-2040 forecasts from
Metropolitan Council (July 2015) 7
Households growth by typeSource: 2010 data on population and
households from Census Bureau; 2020-2040 forecasts from
Metropolitan Council (2015) 8
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Need for a local land use modelTotals from the regional model
are allocated to local zonesComplete loop of transportation and
land use interactionLocal land use model provides distributions of
people and jobs to travel demand modelTravel demand model returns
future network conditions, accessibility measures
PopulationHouseholdsJobs
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Households, 204010
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Met Councils local land use model Key dynamics and components of
real estate market Where will we add 500,000 jobs and 370,000
households?Site selection of households and employers: what
locations best satisfy preferences, mediated by prices?Supply of
real estate: what locations are viable to developers?
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Local data informs the model
Housing by type
Rent for SF home
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Local data informs the model
Base year land supplyEmployment levelsSocio-economic
characteristicsHousing stockBuilding costs, land pricesAverage
rentsLand consumption ratesRegional systems and servicesPlanned
land use as a constraintAccessibility, by car and by transit
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Peak hour drive times to State Fair: 2030In the future: more
people, more jobsConcurrently, travel times can worsenCumulative
accessibility can increase or decrease
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Local plans provide the envelope for what development is
allowable, possible
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We also consider the urban form today as the starting template
for future growth
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Households Growth, 2010-2040
The region will gain 370,000 households over 30 years Expect
growth in all parts of the metro urban services area17
Current households + growth18
Growth in Ramsey County to 204019
Some aspects of the local forecasts are surprising but
consistent with larger demographic and market trends Long-term
demand for both locations and real estate types will continue
changing Long-term, the fastest growing market segments want
central locations, access to destinations, and a mix of housing
options20
Households growth: smaller, older
Source: 2010 data on population and households from Census
Bureau; 2020-2040 forecasts from Metropolitan Council (March
2015)21
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The next 370,000 housing unitsWith this demographic mix, most
housing to be added will be multifamily or attached housingThis is
an estimate of long-term demandWhat developers have supplied or
will supply could differ22
65 and over population: 201423
65 and over population: 204024
65 and over population: 201425
65 and over population: 204026
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1 person households: 2014
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1 person households: 2040
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With retirement and aging come big changes in how people spend
their day where they go, what they doFor community planners,
considerations include: recreation, arts and entertainment demand
in the communitytransportationemergency services and social
services. need for life cycle housing optionsAging: Planning
considerations29
Growth in all parts of the region2010-2040 forecasts from
Metropolitan Council (July 2015 update)30
Households Growth, 2010-2040
The region will gain 370,000 households over 30 years Expect
growth in all parts of the metro urban services area31
Engaging with local governmentsThe Council requires local land
use plans be consistent with the Councils forecastsCities can
achieve this consistency by adjusting land uses, development
intensity, or future development stagingAlso, the Council is
receptive to adjusting local forecasts, as needed Our objective:
Council and local planners working from the same numbers32
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Multiple opportunities to adjustLocal governments were invited
to comment on forecasts in 20154 cities forecasts revised following
system statements commentsInterim forecast revisions also possible
via plan updates or plan amendments 5 cities forecasts revised,
AugustFebruaryMore adjustments likely 33
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More informationwww.metrocouncil.org/forecasts/ 34
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Forecasting the next 30 years of metro development
Ramsey CountyMarch 1, 2016Todd Graham, Principal
[email protected] 35
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