ForecastInternational_AIM-9X Sidewinder_F659_CompleteSample.pdf

8/11/2019 ForecastInternational_AIM-9X Sidewinder_F659_CompleteSample.pdf

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The Market for

Air-to-Air Missiles

Product Code #F659

A Special Focused Market Segment Analysis by:


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Analysis 4

The Market for Air-to-Air Missiles

through 2017Table of Contents

Table of Contents .....................................................................................................................................................1

Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................................2

Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................3

Trends ..........................................................................................................................................................................6

Competitive Environment .......................................................................................................................................8

Market Statistics .....................................................................................................................................................16Table 1 - The Market for Air-to-Air Missiles

Unit Production by Headquarters/Company/Program 2008 - 2017 ...............................................22

Table 2 - The Market for Air-to-Air MissilesValue Statistics by Headquarters/Company/Program 2008 - 2017 ................................................26

Figure 1 - The Market for Air-to-Air MissilesUnit Production 2008-2017 (Bar Graph) ................................................................................30

Figure 2 - The Market for Air-to-Air Missiles

Value of Production 2008-2017 (Bar Graph)..........................................................................30

Table 3 - The Market for Air-to-Air Missiles

Unit Production % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2008 - 2017 ...................................31

Table 4 - The Market for Air-to-Air Missiles

Value Statistics % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2008 - 2017 ....................................33


Unit Production % Market Share by Headquarters 2008 - 2017 (Pie Chart) ..........................35


Value Statistics % Market Share by Headquarters 2008 - 2017 (Pie Chart)...........................35

Conclusion ...............................................................................................................................................................36

* * *


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Product Code F659 The Market for Air-to-Air Missiles

2008

PROGRAMS

The following reports are included in this section: (Note:a single report may cover several programs.)

AAM-3

AAM-4

AIM-9 Sidewinder

AIM-9X Sidewinder

AIM-120 AMRAAM

Aspide

ASRAAM

Astra

Chinese Air-to-Air MissilesIRIS-T

MAA-1 Piranha

Meteor

MICA

Russian Air-to-Air Missile

Shafrir II/Python III

Sky Sword I/II

V3A/B Kukri, V3C Darter


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Product Code F659 The Market for Air-to-Air Missiles

2008

Introduction

The Beginnings. Aircraft technology was little overa decade old when Gavrilo Princip, a member of the

terrorist group Black Hand, shot Grand Archduke FranzFerdinand in Saraevo. This June 28, 1914, assassination

provided an easy excuse for Austria to attack Serbia, aconflict that widened to become the First World War.

Although the Italians had used aircraft in combat in

Libya, dropping bombs on Turkish troops in 1911, no

single-seat fighter aircraft existed when the fightingstarted. In 1914, the eras generals saw these aircraft fit

for reconnaissance and surveillance missions, only

(many did not think them fit for this purpose).

When the war started, France had 132 frontline aircraft,

Germany 246, Russia 24, Austria 36, and the British

Royal Flying Corps 84 and the Royal Navy 71 aircraft.The low numbers were in part due to the many problems

that existed with early aircraft: low reliability, limited

range, fragility, limited payload, poor maneuverability,

flammability, and accidental explosions. Still, as the

war progressed and intensified, the importance of

aircraft steadily grew.

By October 1914, many pilots were experimenting with

placing machine guns on their two-seat reconnais-sance aircraft. The introduction of interrupter gear,

allowing a machine gun to fire through a spinning

propeller without hitting it, helped convince leaders of

the value of fighter aircraft.

All sides were expanding their air corps as fast as

possible by the end of 1915. In July 1916, the Battle ofthe Somme saw the RFC employing 27 squadrons with

421 aircraft. The RFC established air superiority overthe frontline and some 30 miles behind enemy lines. By

December of that year, the British government approved

the further expansion of the RFC to 106 frontline and 95reserve and training squadrons.

Total aircraft production during the First World War

exceeded 200,000 units.

FIRST WORLD WAR AIRCRAFT STATISTICS(1)

Nation Total Producti on Combat Aircraft 1914 Combat Aircraft 1918 Lost(2)

Austria 5,431 35 (others claim 86) 200-250 Not AvailableFrance 67,987 132-160 3,222 52,640Germany 48,537 246 2,709 27,637Italy 20,000 150 1,200 Not AvailableRussia 4,700 300-360

(3) 1,000

(4) Not Available

United Kingdom 58,144 110-155 4,000 35,973United States 15,000 55 740 Not Available

(1) Figures provided in part by www.theaerodrome.com.(2) Losses due to combat and crashes. Total includes aircraft damaged.(3) May include some non-combat aircraft.(4) Figure for 1917.

Throughout the First World War and the Second, the

main air-to-air weapon of a fighter was the machinegun. The most produced fighter of the war, the

Messerschmitt Bf109, usually carried 13mm machine

guns and 20mm cannons (the number depended on thevariant). The British Spitfire sported three .303-caliber

machine guns and two 20mm cannons, while the U.S.was outfitted with P-51 with six .50-caliber machine

guns. Air-to-air missiles did not appear until late in the

war.

Research into the development of various components,eventually incorporated into air-to-air missiles, had been

ongoing since the 1930s. Germany was first to developthe technology into the prototype stages.

By the midpoint of the war, Germany was facing

ever-increasing numbers of high-quality Allied aircraft,and needed a means to restore the Luftwaffes

superiority in the air. Long-range (for that time) guided

air-to-air projectiles seemed to be the answer; in 1943,Germany successfully completed its first airborne

launchings against an aerial target.

Ruhrstahl Allgemeine Gesellschaft (A.G.) developed

the X-4 missile. Sources disagree but the first launching

of this missile occurred in August 1945 from an Fw190

fighter.

The X-4 was wire-guided and powered by the BMW

109-448 rocket motor. The missiles guidance wires

unwound from two bobbins attached to the wing tips.

Continued


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Missile Forecast

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AIM-9X Sidewinder

Orientation

Description. A next-generation short-range air-to-airmissile.

Sponsor. The United States Department of Defense.The Sidewinder program is run by the Short-RangeMissile Joint Program Office, with the U.S. Navy andexecutive management in the hands of the Naval AirSystems Command, in cooperation with the NavalWeapons Center, China Lake, California. The programis assisted by the U.S. Air Force.

Status. Deliveries of low-rate initial production unitsto the U.S. Air Force commenced in 2002. Technicalproblems with the missiles control actuation systemcaused some schedule delays. Components delivered toRaytheon did not meet performance requirements,resulting in control surfaces that froze under certainloads or friction. Also, the fin locking mechanism,

which holds the control surfaces in place until a fewmoments after the missiles launch, had to beredesigned.

Total Produced. Approximately 2,135 AIM-9Xmissiles (including RDT&E units) had been completedby the end of 2006. Low-rate initial production wasapproved on September 22, 2000. The AIM-9Xachieved an Initial Operational Capability during 2003with full-scale production starting in 2004. Reportedly,

Raytheons line can manufacture around 800 missilesper year.

Appl ication. Short-range, near all-aspect air-to-airmissile with dogfight capability.

Price Range. The AIM-9X could cost between$160,000 and $200,000, although other estimates placethe probable unit price at about $300,000 a copy.

Contractors

Prime

Raytheon Missile Systems http://www.raytheon.com, 1151 E Hermans Rd, Tucson, AZ 85706 United States,Tel: + 1 (520) 794-3000, Fax: + 1 (520) 794-1315, Prime

Subcontractor

All iant Techsystems - MissionSystems Group, AlleganyBallistics Laboratory

http://www.atk.com, 210 State Rte 956, Rocket Center, WV 26726-0210 United States,Tel: + 1 (304) 726-5000, Fax: + 1 (304) 726-5183, Email: [email protected](Mk 36 Solid Fuel Rocket Motor)

Outlook In production

U.S. and foreign militaries are purchasing the AIM-9XSidewinder

Additional export orders are anticipated

Sales of U.S.-built combat aircraft are helping to generatedemand for the AIM-9X missile

U.S. could procure a ground-based surface-to-air versionof the AIM-9X and perhaps one for use from submergedsubmarines

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Units

Unit Production Forecast

2007-2016

Units 631 663 747 803 802 804 802 801 800 752

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


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Missile Forecast Page 3

AIM-9X Sidewinder

2 0 0 7 November 2007

examining preplanned product improvements (P3I) forthe AIM-9X. Areas for early P3I phases include thecomponents retained from the AIM-9M including therocket motor, fuze, and warhead. A ground-launchedversion of the AIM-9X could also be developed.

Raytheon is proposing an upgrade that would enable apilot to launch the missile based on cues from awingman or other friendly aircraft. The missile wouldfly to a predetermined point based on the cues receivedfrom another aircraft. The missile would acquire the

hostile aircraft and lock on to it as its flies to thatpredetermined point. This feature would allow fightersto engage hostile aircraft when they are attacking frombehind.

Another proposal calls for the development of an

encapsulated version that can be fired from submergedsubmarines. This missile would be used to engageanti-submarine warfare (ASW) helicopters and othermaritime aircraft.

AIM-9X

Source: Raytheon

Program Review

Background. The United States began to considerdevelopment of an AIM-9 Sidewinder follow-on as farback as the late 1970s. The United States becameinvolved in the cooperative AIM-132 ASRAAMprogram, which involved various NATO Alliancemembers. Eventually, the U.S. pulled out of theAIM-132 ASRAAM program, deciding instead todevelop a new system on its own. This decisionresulted in the existing AIM-9X project, described as along-term evolutionary improvement to the Sidewinder,which turned into a true next-generation air-to-airmissile development effort.

Western Alliance Looks for New Advanced

Short-Range AAM

Desired improvements over the existing Sidewinderwere concentrated in three areas: developing a moreflexible seeker, increasing data processing capability,and making the airframe more agile for the in-close,tight fight. Designers hoped to contain costs byretaining the original Sidewinder rocket motor and

warhead, as well as the target detector device thatdetonates the warhead. It had been suggested that a6-inch rocket motor be used to provide a larger no-escape zone. However, the U.S. decided to stick withthe smaller standard 5-inch rocket motor since it isfaster and creates less drag.

The seeker development effort aims to increase the dis-tance at which the missile can acquire a target against ablue-sky background to about eight to 10 miles, fourmiles against ground clutter. Seeker technologies underconsideration included a pseudo imager or a full-imaging staring focal plane array. Both wouldincorporate large gimbal angles of about 90 degrees,which would produce a 180-degree field of regard.Advanced processing available in the new seeker alsowould improve infrared counter-countermeasurescapability.

A pseudo imager uses several simple detectors, whilethe original Sidewinder had only one. Additionaldetectors are able to procure enough data for animproved processor to create an image-like represent-


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Page 4 Missile Forecast

AIM-9X Sidewinder

November 2007

ation of the target, instead of a single hot spot. Thepseudo imager thus allows for greater discriminationand rejection of clutter. It operates in the infrared long-wave range, which helps the missile detect an aircraftfrom any angle, instead of relying on seeing engineheat.

The pseudo imager uses 12 to 200 detectors, comparedto more than 16,000 used in a staring focal plane array.This reduction translates to lower cost, a less complica-ted device, and smaller processing demands. However,the medium-wave frequency staring focal plan array hasbetter range and more sensitivity with a blue sky. Thetwo systems are about equal in discriminating againstground clutter, according to industry officials.

The new seeker may also have the capability of trackinginfrared and radar signatures. Although a focal planestaring array would provide greater infrared sensitivityand discrimination of flares or other decoys, the seeker

could also be outfitted with a passive mode for trackingradar emissions of an enemy aircraft or be used with theactive radar on the launch aircraft to illuminate andtrack the target. Processor technology improvementsdeveloped under the AIM-9R program also could beincorporated into this missile.

Competition. The AIM-9X competition attracted awide variety of U.S. and overseas defense firms. AnApril 1994 Request for Proposals (demonstration/val-idation phase) issued by the United States resulted inproposals from the U.S. Navy (Naval Air WarfareCenter, China Lake, California), U.S. Air Force,Hughes, Raytheon, BAe (based on its ASRAAM), Loral

Aeronutronics (teamed with BGT, which offered animaging infrared seeker based on TELL), and Rafael ofIsrael (with the Python IV). Two 18-monthdemonstration/validation contracts were issued toRaytheon and Hughes in December 1994.

Hughes Wins Contract for new ASRAAM

The final candidates were Hughes with an evolvedAIM-9M, Raytheon with its own evolved AIM-9Mproposal, Raytheon and Rafael using technology fromthe Python IV, and British Aerospace and Hughes withan improved version of the ASRAAM. In December1996, Hughes was selected as the winner of this

competition.

The AIM-9X development schedule allowed for 81months from the time of contract award to the deliveryof the first low-rate initial production (LRIP) Lot 1missile. Problems with the missiles control actuationsystems and fin locking mechanism caused some delaysin the programs schedule. A third LRIP lot was addedto allow additional time to complete development andoperational testing. The service declared the missile

operational in 2003, with the start of full-rate productionmoved to 2004.

Initial procurement estimates place AIM-9X levels at6,000 units (4,000 for the U.S. Air Force and 2,000 forthe Navy); although some estimate procurement could

top 10,000 units.Missile Models. There is only a single version of theAIM-9X in development, but additional models couldbe produced once the system enters service.

AIM-9X. Raytheons (originally Hughes) AIM-9X pro-posal incorporates technology developed under theBritish-led ASRAAM program. The companys missilewill use a mercury/cadmium/telluride focal plane arrayseeker small enough to fit in a 5-inch-diameter airframe.

Under a classified technology demonstration program,called Top Hat, Raytheons sensor showed increasedsensitivity compared to the current generation of infra-

red guidance systems. At present, infrared seekers useseveral detectors mounted on a scanning mechanism.

Raytheon uses a 128x128 focal plane array operating inthe 3- to 5-micron infrared band linked to a trackersystem provided by Raytheon, Lewisville, Texas. Ray-theon was the principal subcontractor during the demon-stration program. Raytheon developed the optics andthe gimbal mechanism for the guidance unit and inte-grated the guidance system. The companys SantaBarbara Research Center provided the focal plane array.

The system is expected to provide the followingimprovements in performance: all-aspect attack, in-

creased range due to greater seeker sensitivity, betterperformance in high background clutter environments,and improved performance against infrared counter-measures due to the systems imaging capability.

Technical problems with the missiles control actuationsystem have caused some schedule delays. Componentsdelivered to Raytheon were not meeting performancerequirements, resulting in control surfaces that could notmove as required and would freeze under certain loadsor frictions. Also, the fin-locking mechanism, whichholds the control surfaces in place until a few momentsafter the missiles launch, had to be redesigned.

By August 1999, five tests of the AIM-9X had beencompleted. About 16 separation firings and 43 guidedshots were planned for the AIM-9X. The guided missiletests were completed by the end of 2001. Initial opera-tional tests and evaluations started in late 2001 andcontinued through most of 2002. More than 22 testfirings were to be conducted as part of this phase. LRIPwas approved in September 2000, with a full-rateproduction decision slated for 2004.


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AIM-9X Sidewinder

2 0 0 7 November 2007

Submarine-Launched AIM-9X. Raytheon is experi-menting with a submarine-launched version of theAIM-9X, a successful land-based launch having beencompleted on November 19, 2005. The test wasconducted for the Naval Sea Systems Command at theU.S. Armys McGregor Test Range in New Mexico.

This system could provide U.S. Navy submarines thecapability to defend themselves against anti-submarine

warfare (ASW) aircraft when operating in shallowwaters. The missile is intended for launch when thesubmarine is at periscope depth.

For this test, the missile was launched from a stationaryU.S. Army XM-85 Chaparral launcher. The AIM-9X

missile successfully acquired and destroyed a slowmoving helicopter drone target with a direct hit.

Full-scale development has not commenced.

Significant News

Raytheon to Offer Jammer Version of Sidewinder Raytheon is offering a jammer based on its AIM-9XSidewinder, called Quiet Eyes. This short-range air-to-air missile has already been sold to the U.S. military andforeign air forces. Raytheon wants to take advantage of the growing demand in the United States for aircraft infraredcountermeasures, a market that has traditionally been dominated by BAE Systems and Northrop Grumman. ITT isalso interested in this market, along with Lockheed Martin. (Flight International, 7/07)

Raytheon Vying for Indian Defense Contracts Raytheon, like other U.S. companies, is trying to win alarger share of Indias annual defense contract awards. The company had a large display at the Aero India Show andhas been trying to establish long-term partnerships with local firms.

Among the products that Raytheon displayed at Aero India were the AMRAAM and AIM-9M Sidewinder air-to-air,Maverick anti-armor, HARM anti-radiation, and the Patriot and SLAMRAAM air defense missiles. Also featured atthe show was the Paveway strike weapon. The potential sale of U.S. combat fighters to India could aid in the sale ofsome of these missile systems. (India Defence, 2/07)

Market Intelligence Service Subscribers: For additional news, go to the online E-Market Alert page located in the Intelligence Center atwww.forecastinternational.com and click on the links to the products you subscribe to.

Funding

Deliveries of the AIM-9X to the U.S. military started in mid-2002. The Pentagon slipped the AIM-9X InitialOperational Capability to 2003. The U.S. Department of Defense plans to procure around 10,000 missiles splitbetween the U.S. Air Force and Navy during an 18-year production run. The AIM-9X program could cost $3 billionto $4 billion with development accounting for some $650 million of this total.

U.S. FUNDING

FY08 FY08 FY05 FY05 FY06 FY06 FY07 FY07 (Req) (Req) QTY AMT QTY AMT QTY AMT QTY AMTProcurement US Navy 135 33.1 135 33.1 159 37.1 174 40.4

*USAF 248 52.4 196 44.4 183 43.7 172 52.7RDT&EProj-1 - 5.4 - 5.4 - 15.4 - 8.9

Proj-2 - 3.9 - 3.9 - 9.2 - 8.0Total 383 94.8 331 86.8 342 105.4 346 110.0

All $ are in millions.

Proj - 1PE#0207161F Tactical AIM Missiles Proj 4132 AIM-9 Product Improvement. Funding for AIM-9X.Proj - 2PE#0207161N Tactical Air Intercept Proj E0457 AIM-9X. USN line providing funding for AIM-9X.


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AIM-9X Sidewinder

November 2007

Contracts/Orders & Options

On April 23, 2007, Raytheon Missile Systems, Tucson, Arizona, received a $59,452,101 modification to apreviously awarded firm-fixed-price contract (N00019-07-C-0008) exercising an option for the Lot 7 production ofAIM-9X tactical missiles for the U.S. Air Force (17) and U.S. Navy (1), and for the governments of Finland (100),

Singapore (40), and Switzerland (1 Lot (quantity classified)). In addition, this option provides for the procurement ofCaptive Air Training Missiles (CATMs) for Finland (40) and Singapore (20), as well as containers for the U.S. AirForce (15) and the governments of Finland (39), Switzerland (18), and Singapore (15). Work will be performed inTucson, Arizona (93 percent); and Andover, Massachusetts (7 percent); and is expected to be completed in April2009. This option combines purchases for the U.S. Air Force ($3,087,475; 5.2 percent), U.S. Navy ($172,475;0.3 percent), and the governments of Finland ($25,658,565; 43.2 percent), Singapore ($16,299,060; 27.4 percent),and Switzerland ($14,234,526; 23.9 percent) under the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program. The Naval AirSystems Command, Patuxent River, Maryland is the contracting agency.

On January 31, 2007, Raytheon Missile Systems, Tucson, Arizona, was awarded an $8,918,573 modification to apreviously awarded firm-fixed-price contract (N00019-07-C-0008) to provide technical support for the developmentof a Block II configuration AIM-9X missile. This contract combines purchases for the U.S. Navy ($2,575,000; 29percent) and the U.S. Air Force ($6,343,573; 71 percent). Work will be performed in Tucson, Arizona, and wascompleted in September 2007. The Naval Air Systems Command, Patuxent River, Maryland was the contracting

agency.

On December 18, 2006, Raytheon Missile Systems, Tucson, Arizona, received a $9,806,987 modification to apreviously awarded firm-fixed-price contract (N00019-07-C-0008) for FY07 technical support of Lot 7 AIM-9Xmissiles for the U.S. Navy and U.S. Air Force. Work will be performed in Tucson, Arizona, and was completed inNovember 2007. This contract combines purchases for the U.S. Navy ($5,525,175; 56 percent) and the U.S. AirForce ($4,281,812; 44 percent). The Naval Air Systems Command, Patuxent River, Maryland, is the contractingagency.

On December 8, 2006, Raytheon Missile Systems, Tucson, Arizona, was awarded a $67,659,959 firm-fixed-pricecontract for 222 Lot 7 Production AIM-9X Tactical Missiles for the U.S. Navy (126) and U.S. Air Force (96). Inaddition, this contract provides for the procurement of 153 Captive Air Training Missiles (CATMs) for the U.S.Navy (48), U.S. Air Force (87), and Switzerland (18), and 105 containers for the U.S. Navy (49), U.S. Air Force(51), and Switzerland (5). Work will be performed in Tucson, Arizona (93 percent) and Andover, Massachusetts

(7 percent) and is expected to be completed in April 2009. This contract combines purchases for the U.S. Air Force($32,573,982; 48 percent), U.S. Navy ($31,712,226; 47 percent), and Switzerland ($3,373,751; 5 percent) under theFMS program. The Naval Air Systems Command, Patuxent River, Maryland, is the contracting agency. ContractNumber N00019-07-C-0008

On April 28, 2006, Raytheon, Tucson, Arizona, received a $6,027,183 ceiling-priced modification to a previouslyawarded firm-fixed-price contract (N00019-04-C-0006) exercising an option for the lot 6 production of twoAIM-9X tactical missiles for the government of Denmark, 23 captive air training missiles for the Air Force, andthree special air training missiles for the Air Force. In addition, this option provides 13 containers for the Air Forceand one for the government of Denmark, spares for the Air Force (1) and the government of Denmark (2), and onewarhead for the government of Denmark. Work will be performed in Tucson, Arizona (92 percent); Rocket Center,West Virginia (5 percent); and Andover, Massachusetts (3 percent); and is expected to be completed in April 2008.This contract combines purchases for the Air Force ($4,950,195; 82.1 percent) and the government of Denmark($1,076,988; 17.9 percent) under the FMS Act. The Naval Air Systems Command, Patuxent River, Maryland, is the

contracting agency.

On February 22, 2006, Raytheon Missile Systems, Tucson, Arizona, was awarded a $35,677,998 ceiling-pricedmodification to a previously awarded firm-fixed-price contract (N00019-04-C-0006) exercising an option to procure127 AIM-9X Tactical Missiles, 22 Captive Air Training Missiles, and 41 containers for the government of Turkeyunder the FMS program. Work will be performed in Tucson, Arizona (84 percent); Rocket Center, West Virginia(13 percent); and Andover, Massachusetts (3 percent); and is expected to be completed in March 2008. The NavalAir Systems Command, Patuxent River, Maryland, is the contracting agency.


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AIM-9X Sidewinder

2 0 0 7 November 2007

On February 2, 2006, Raytheon Missile Systems, Tucson, Arizona, received a $14,874,018 ceiling-priced modifi-cation to a previously awarded firm-fixed-price contract (N00019-04-C-0006) for technical services in support ofthe software integration of the AIM-9X Missile capability on the F-16 Aircraft, including technical data and supportequipment for Turkey under the FMS program. Work will be performed in Tucson, Arizona (70 percent) and inEskisehir, Turkey (30 percent); and was completed in December 2007. The Naval Air Systems Command, PatuxentRiver, Maryland, is the contracting agency.

On December 8, 2005, Raytheon Systems, Tucson, Arizona, was awarded a $59,384,853 modification to apreviously awarded firm-fixed-price contract (N00019-04-C-0006) exercising an option for the FY06 procurementof 196 AIM-9X Tactical Missiles for the U.S. Air Force (103) and the U.S. Navy (93); 125 Captive Air TrainingMissiles for the U.S. Air Force (70), U.S. Navy (42), and the government of Switzerland (13), and 100 containersfor the U.S. Air Force (55), the U.S. Navy (38), and the government of Switzerland (7). This contract combinespurchases from the U.S. Air Force ($31,685,238; 53.4 percent), U.S. Navy ($24,946,605; 42 percent), and thegovernment of Switzerland ($2,753,010; 4.6 percent) under the FMS program. Work will be performed in Tucson,Arizona (84 percent), Rocket Center, West Virginia (13 percent), and Andover, Massachusetts (3 percent), and isexpected to be completed in March 2008. The Naval Air Systems Command, Patuxent River, Maryland, is thecontracting agency.

In March 2005, Raytheon was awarded an $8.99 million modification contract exercising an option for AIM-9Xmissiles for the U.S. Air Force (11) and Denmark (40). The contract also includes captive air training missiles for

the U.S. Air Force (1), sectionalization spares for Denmark (1) and South Korea (1), and containers for the U.S. AirForce (4) and Denmark (10). Work on this contract was completed in April 2007. Contract Number N00019-04-C-0006

In December 2004, Raytheon received a $6.9 million modification contract to develop a replacement for theDSU-37 Proximity Fuze and a datalink for the AIM-9X for the U.S. Air Force and Navy. Work on this contract wascompleted in September 2005. Contract Number N00019-04-C-0003

In November 2004, Raytheon was awarded a $158.2 million modification contract exercising an option to procureAIM-9X missiles for the U.S. Air Force (178), U.S. Navy (93), Poland (178), Denmark (60), South Korea (41), andSwitzerland (1 Lot quantity classified); captive air training missiles for the U.S. Air Force (70), U.S. Navy (42),Denmark (32), Poland (20), and Switzerland (3); and containers for the U.S. Air Force (69), U.S. Navy (39),Denmark (28), Switzerland (24), and South Korea (10). Work on this contract was completed in April 2006.Contract Number N00019-04-C-0006

In November 2004, Raytheon received a $6.1 million modification contract to provide engineering and logisticssustaining support for the AIM-9X Lot 5 (FY05) U.S. Navy and Air Force Follow-on Test and Evaluation Program.Work on this contract was completed in November 2005. Contract Number N00019-04-C-0006

In April 2004, Raytheon Missile Systems received an $82.4 million contract for Lot 4 production of 314 AIM-9Xmissiles: 64 for the U.S. Navy, 186 for the U.S. Air Force, and 64 for South Korea. Work on this contract wascompleted in April 2006. Contract Number N00019-04-C-0006

In November 2002, Raytheon Systems Company, Tucson, Arizona, was awarded a $96.2 million modificationcontract exercising an option to procure 599 AIM-9X Sidewinder low-rate initial production missiles (436 all-uprounds and 139 captive air training missiles). Work on this contract was completed by April 2005. ContractNumber N00019-97-C-0027

In November 2000, Raytheon Systems Company, Tucson, Arizona, received a $43.4 million modification contract

exercising an option for the AIM-9X low-rate initial production of 103 all-up rounds, 39 captive air trainingmissiles, and other associated components. Work was completed by April 2003. Contract NumberN00019-97-C-0027

Timetable

Month Year Major Development1970s U.S. considers Sidewinder follow-on1990-91 Cooperation AIM-132 ASRAAM program collapses

Dec 1994-1995 AIM-9X demonstration/validation phase


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AIM-9X Sidewinder

November 2007

Month Year Major DevelopmentDec 1996 Hughes awarded engineering and manufacturing development contractOct 1997 Hughes acquired by Raytheon

1999 Technical problems cause delaysJun 1999 First successful guided testJul 1999 Missile experiences test failure

Sep 1999 Second successful guided testSep 2000 LRIP approvedMay 2002 Deliveries of LRIP units begun

2003 AIM-9X achieves Initial Operational Capability2004 Full-rate production of AIM-9X commences

Worldwide Distribution/Inventories

The first international customers for the AIM-9X Sidewinder were South Koreaand Switzerland. At least 10 othercountries have expressed interest in the AIM-9X missile. In 2007, the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF)announced it will arm its F/A-18E/F Super Hornets with the AIM-9X Sidewinder.

Another country said to be interested in the AIM-9X is Belgium. The Belgian Air Forcewould like to replace itsAIM-9Ms with a new air-to-air missile. Options include the AIM-9X, IRIS-T, and ASRAAM. This missile willarm the BAFs fleet of F-16AM fighters.

Earlier in 2006, Bulgariasaid it wanted to procure Western-built fighters and air-to-air missiles. Bulgaria is seeking20 new fighters to replace some of its aging Soviet-provided aircraft. Sofia is considering the Boeing F/A-18E/FHornet, the BAE Systems/Saab JAS39 Gripen, and the Lockheed Martin F-16C/D. The likely air-to-air missilearmaments for these fighters are the AIM-9 Sidewinder and AIM-120 AMRAAM.

Denmarkhas selected the AIM-9X to arm its F-16AM fighters. The candidates to meet this requirement were theAIM-9X and BGTs IRIS-T. Denmarks selection could influence other operators of F-16AMs to purchase the samemissile. Finland is procuring the AIM-9X as part of an upgrade package for its F/A-18 Hornets. In November2005, the U.S. offered Finland 150 AIM-9X missiles and other associated equipment as part of a $100 millioncontract.

In 2005, Greecesaid it could procure U.S.-built F-16 Block 52 fighters. Initially, 30 aircraft could be ordered with

an option for an additional 10. These aircraft would meet the Hellenic Air Forces immediate needs and notpreclude the purchase of an all-new fighter aircraft in 2009. These F-16s could be armed with the AIM-9XSidewinder.

In another first, the United States offered to sell IndiaF-16 or F/A-18 Hornet fighter aircraft in 2006. Along withthese aircraft, the U.S. would provide AIM-9 Sidewinder and AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles. In 2007, theU.S. offered South Korea 102 AIM-9X missiles to arm its F-15K fighters. If all options are exercised, the totalvalue of the agreement could be as high as $55 million.

Meanwhile, the Netherlands is examining potential replacements for its inventory of AIM-9 Sidewinders. TheDutch are already flight testing the IRIS-Ts seeker as a possible replacement for its Sidewinders. However, theAIM-9X and ASRAAM are also candidates for meeting this requirement. Also, Norwaywants to purchase newshort-range AAMs for its F-16AMs.

After years of delays, the U.S. has offered to sell F-16 fighters to Pakistan. Whether these aircraft would come

equipped with AIM-9X or AIM-9M missiles is uncertain. In 2006, the United States and Pakistan were negotiatinga new arms deal that could involve the sale of 36 new and perhaps 26 used F-16 fighters. The value of this contractcould be in the area of $5 billion.

In 2002, Polandwas offered 178 AIM-9X missiles as part of a deal involving the procurement of F-16C/D fighters.The total value of this arms package was placed at $1.1 billion.

The possible sale of F/A-18E/F Super Hornets to Malaysiapresents another market opportunity for the AIM-9X.Malaysia already operates earlier model Hornets. Besides Malaysia, Singaporehas said it would like to purchase


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AIM-9X Sidewinder

2 0 0 7 November 2007

the AIM-9X to arm its U.S.-built fighter aircraft. Thailandwants new combat aircraft with options, including U.S.-and Russian-built fighters.

In 2005, Romania, like many other Eastern European nations, announced interest in replacing its obsolete Russian-built combat aircraft. The Romanian Air Force expressed interest in procuring Western-designed fighters, an optionbeing the JAS 39 Gripen. Romania said it wants 48 new combat aircraft to replace its aging fleet of 80 MiG

fighters.In 2006, Sloveniaannounced plans to acquire new military helicopters and cargo aircraft. These aircraft are to be inservice by 2015. Slovenia may place an order for fighter aircraft in the future, but no specific timetable has beenannounced.

In September 2005, Singaporeselected the Boeing F-15 over the Dassault Rafale. The initial order was expected tobe for 10-12 combat aircraft, although this figure could increase to 20 fighters in the future. This aircraftprocurement deal could be worth more than $1 billion. Along with the fighters, the United States is offering a $741million weapons package to Singapore. This arms package includes 200 AIM-120C AMRAAM and 200 AIM-9XSidewinder missiles.

In July 2006, Taiwan considered the purchase of combat fighters and attack helicopters from the United States.These potential purchases are part of Taiwans effort to enhance its defenses to counter the rising threat from China.

Taiwan may purchase 66 F-16 C/D Block 52 fighters for TWD130 billion ($4 billion). These aircraft would replaceolder F-5 fighters currently in service and strengthen Taiwans air defense capabilities. The armaments package thatcould accompany this fighter purchase could be significant. Additional air-to-air missiles, AIM-9 Sidewinder, andAIM-120 AMRAAMs, would be required.

Turkeyannounced plans to acquire the AIM-9X, with the U.S. offering 225 missiles in October 2004, valued atapproximately $96 million. A contract for some AIM-9X missiles was awarded in 2006.

User Countries. The United States was the initial operator of the AIM-9X Sidewinder, followed by SouthKorea, Switzerland, Poland, Denmark, Finland, Singapore, Turkey, and Australia.

Forecast Rationale

The Sidewinder is on its way to becoming the most

widely sold air-to-air missile in the world. This family,which secured its first aerial combat victory on July 10,1965, will be on duty with numerous air forces foranother 20 years.

Since entering service, the AIM-9 Sidewinder has cometo dominate the short-range air-to-air missile marketsegment. More than 40 years later, no missile has arisento challenge Raytheons dominance, and the Sidewind-ers newest version, the AIM-9X, is poised to continuethe success of its predecessors. The total production ofthe new AIM-9X model could easily be double that ofits nearest competitor.

The greatest advantage of the AIM-9X and its predeces-sors is being the standard armament on U.S.-builtcombat aircraft. U.S. companies will sell one-and-a-half times as many aircraft as Dassault and EurofighterGmbH, and three times more than Sukhoi and MiG. Inaddition, a sizable number of those U.S. combat aircraftalready in service around the world will receive updatesallowing carriage of the AIM-9X missile.

The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) could play a key

role in determining if Raytheon achieves its eventualAIM-9X sales goal. Pentagon and defense industryofficials are predicting that international sales of the JSFwill reach 2,000 to 3,000 units over the life of thisprogram. If true, then this, combined with export salesof other U.S.-built fighters, could help Raytheon capturea significant portion of the short-range air-to-air missilemarket.

In addition to U.S. fighters, a large number offoreign-built aircraft could be armed with the AIM-9X.Perhaps 50 percent of all JAS39 Gripens sold could bearmed with U.S. air-to-air missiles. The exportpotential of the AIM-9X would be further increased if

the missile could be offered in combination with theEurofighter Typhoon. This combination would improveRaytheons chances of winning more missile orders inEurope, where 1,500 to 2,000 short-range air-to-airmissiles could be purchased over the next 10 years.

By far, the United States will be the single largest pur-chaser of AIM-9X missiles, acquiring possibly 10,000or more. Yet Raytheon believes export sales could


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AIM-9X Sidewinder

November 2007

surpass 5,000 missiles. One source speculated that thenumber of AIM-9Xs purchased by overseas operatorscould exceed that bought by the United States.

Growing International Interest

So far, South Korea, Switzerland, Poland, Denmark,Finland, Singapore, Turkey, and Australia have selectedthis missile to arm their fighter aircraft. Other interestednations include Belgium, Canada, Greece, India,Malaysia, the Netherlands, and Taiwan. If the U.S.government shows a willingness to allow wide exports,international orders could add another 10 to 40 percentto the AIM-9Xs production total. By some estimates,

worldwide AIM-9X demand could top 50,000 units,although Raytheon believes about 5,000 missiles couldbe exported over the life of this program.

The short-range air-to-air missile market is oftenovershadowed by its medium-range counterparts. High

profile fighter aircraft competitions have obscured thefact that short-range missiles will generate close to halfthe air-to-air missile markets total value. The AIM-9Xwill routinely face off against MBDAs ASRAAM andBGTs IRIS-T over the next decade, but it should beable to win a respectable number of foreign productioncontracts.

Ten-Year Outlook

ESTIMATED CALENDAR YEAR UNIT PRODUCTION

Designation or Program High Confidence Good Confidence Speculative

Thru 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total

Raytheon Air-to-Air Missiles

AIM-9 X Sidewinder2,135 631 663 747 803 802 804 802 801 800 752 7,605

Total 2,135 631 663 747 803 802 804 802 801 800 752 7,605


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