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Forecasting optimized with Predictive Insights
Tuesday 10th december 2013 Vincent Beumer
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What we do…
About Magnus
Flexible
High quality
Entrepreneurial and a bit headstrong
With the right mentality and commitment
Who we are..
Magnus is founded in 1989
First partner of SAP Netherlands
First SAP R/3 implementation in the Netherlands
First big SAP BW implementation in the Netherlands
First SAP BPC NW implementation in the Netherlands
SAP service partner, validated expertise partner Receivables Management, Business Intelligence, Datawarehousing, Finance, PLM & EAM
Located in Naarden and Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
~70 specialists in the Netherlands
Magnus culture..
SAP Consulting Technology
Solutions
Managed Services
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Magnus Analytics
Non stop track record with SAP Analytics tools since 1999:
SAP Business Warehouse (BW)
SAP Business Planning & Simulation (SEM-BPS)
SAP Corporate Performance Management (CPM)
SAP Business Consolidation System (SEM-BCS)
SAP Integrated Planning (IP)
SAP BusinessObjects suite (Design Studio, Dashboard Design, WebIntelligence, Explorer, Analysis)
Non-stop track record with SAP BPC since 2009 (from 7.0 NW ramp-up until 10.0 on HANA) implementations in the Netherlands and Asia.
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What will we cover in this presentation?
Trends in Analytics, EPM and Predictive
Dashboarding, Mobile & InMemory
EPM, Budgetting & Forecasting
Predictive Analytics
Live demo’s from the Magnus Labs - No guts no glory
SAP Design Studio on HANA in the cloud
SAP Business Planning & Consolidation 10.0 NW
SAP Predictive Analysis (offline)
All our demo’s are metaphorically based on Formula 1 racing results
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How does your Deming Cycle work?
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Business Intelligence is all about “Checking” what you have done
Trends within this domain:
Big data Architectures & InMemory databases
Mobility
Data Integration (external data)
Demo SAP Design Studio on Amazon Cloud HANA
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HANA Studio – Analytic Views
Create the Analytic View as a ‘star-schema’, together with the Attribute Views
Create the logical join and define the output fields
Create the semantic layer by defining the attributes and measures
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Connecting HANA to SAP Design Studio
Make sure that the Analytic View has set ‘MultiDimensional Reporting’ to ‘true’ in its properties.
For a local connection between HANA and Design Studio, create an ODBC-connection
The ODBC-driver will be installed together with the installation of HANA Studio.
For a connection between SAP Business Objects and HANA, create an OLAP-connection
Also be sure that the networkports 30014, 30015, 50013 and 50014 are open!
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Design Studio – Components View
User interface elements, application content
Drag and drop into layout editor
Layout and behavior is edited in the properties view
Most components offer a set of specific events
Grouping
Analytic Components: Used to visualize data by assigning a data source
Basic Components: Variety of components with different functions
Container Components: Used to group and structure the content
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Design Studio – F1 SEASON 2013
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Planning what to “Do”
Faster More frequent (continuous)
Cheaper Add more
value
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CFOs' Top imperatives
Source: Gartner. John Van Decker. CFOs See the Importance of Business Analytics Improvement, Gartner Study Finds. June 2012.
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Dissatisfaction on the current process
90% of FP&A directors are still dissatisfied with the amount of time it takes to complete a budget and 82% dissatisfied with the time it takes to do a round of re-forecasting.
Lack of accuracy
Timeliness of output
Amount of work and time involved
Source: “The Corporate Executive Board: Increasing Budget and Forecast Process Productivity” 2013
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At an average company it takes
Source: Answerthink Consulting/The Hackett Group: “Corporate Strategic Planning Suffers from Inefficiencies” October 1999 - Published in April 2002
95 Days
4,5 Months
21 Days
Financial plan Annual Budget Forecast
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Add more value to your budget
Annual budgeting and planning is generally devious and leads to huge overhead, both in time and money
Financial analysts spend about 80% of their time on tasks that create little value and 20% to the actual analysis of the figures *
*Beyond Budgeting Round Table
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Get rid of your Excel hell
Source: Revising the Panko-Halverson Taxonomy of Spreadsheet Errors, Raymond R. Panko and Salvatore Aurigemma, accepted for publication in Decision Support Systems on February 22, 2010. http://panko.shidler.hawaii.edu/SSR/index.htm
90% 50%
88%
Use
Share
Decide
Contain errors
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But don’t lock your business users in a rigid system
Excel-interface is promised but not delivered
Lacks end-user flexibility
Strong dependence on IT
High implementation costs and TCO
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How to plan? Categories different types of planning
Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly
Sales & Operation planning
Sales planning
Investment/CAPEX
planning
Cost center planning
Profitability planning
Cashflow planning
R&D planning
Demand Planning
Production Planning
Costprice planning
Supply planning
Portfolio planning
Daily, Hourly
3-5 year Strategy
Monthly, weekly
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Connect processes and models
Strategy, tactics and operations do not align
Different priorities between the various functions: marketing, operations, sales and finance, leading to multiple versions of the truth
Differences are argued away
Leads to inaccurate prognoses due to lack of integration
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Silo’s in planning and not integrated within their own silo
Silo’s but integrated model
within the silo
Integrated Business planning
Dynamic Real-Time Forecasting
Maturity
Time
The road to Dynamic Real-Time Forecasting – Where are we now?
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What do we mean with an Integrated Model?
Centrally stored data and templates
The business user in control
Retaining Excel flexibility / functionality
Process support
Uniform process for planning
Authorizations and auditing
Status monitoring
Workflow
SAP BPC NW Demo
By implementing a flexible central solution, many risks are excluded and business users get enabled
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SAP BPC from end-user perspective
Front-end for end-user activities reporting
Planning (data entry)
Data Manager packages (copy, delete, upload data)
Monitoring of the planning process
Data input from external sources
Administrator tasks
Design and management of planning models and dimensions
Master data management
Managing users and permissions
Business rules of consolidation (eg currency conversion)
Activities and Business Process Flows
Now also report and plans through the web and mobile
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SAP BPC 10.0 compared to previous versions
New strongly improved EPM for Office client
One client for multiple SAP applications
Greatly improved Excel Add-in
Completely new web client and Mobile app
Administrator function moves to Web
(client independent)
Hierarchical view of master data
Improved Logic Script Editor
No .Net server needed anymore
Re-use BW Users (no link with Active Directory )
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SAP BPC 10.0 – EPM add-in Input of targets for 2014 based on last year
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What’s happening with Predictive Analytics?
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SAP Predictive Analysis
Statistical Analysis
Data Mining
Build predictive models and discover hidden insights
Many statistical analysis tools built in available
Use of R open-source statistical analysis language
In-memory data mining capabilities for handling large volume data analysis
SAP Predictive Analysis – an Introduction
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Season 2013 cumulative – The entire season of 2013
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One circuit – Alonso and Hamilton’s records 2007-2013
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Per Driver and Circuit – Run a time series analysis (R) with single exponential smoothing
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Per Driver and Circuit – Execute and show results
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Total results of both drivers for 2014
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Predicted results of both drivers for 2014 After 7 races: Hamilton 69 pts (difference with BPC: -15 points) Alonso 62 pts (difference with BPC: -30 points)
Add value to you forecast with predictive insights
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Predictive analytics road map
NOW
Variety of data sources
Simplified administration interface
Open source
Fully integrated data consumption
IN PROGRESS
Expanded data sources
In memory calculation for performance optimization
Collaboration predictive algorithms
Predictive model export
FUTURE
SAP BW support as a source of data
Additional predictive algorithms
Predictive analysis in HANA apps
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Finally:
It is about catching the right technology wave:
mobile, cloud, big data, dynamic realtime
forecasting, predictive analytics, but that only works if you try…
Questions? Please contact:
Vincent Beumer M +31 (0)6 5124 3452
@vincentbeumer
@MagnusTC
Magnus Gooimeer 5-39 ● 1411 DD Naarden +31 88 696 60 00 www.magnus.nl
