Forecasting Oceanic Events – Harmful Algal Blooms

This project is supported by the EC FP7 Programme, Space Theme,

Grant Agreement No.: 261860

Applied Simulations and Integrated Modelling for the Understanding of Toxic and Harmful Algal Blooms

Luz García and Manuel Ruiz Villarreal, Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Spainon behalf of the ASIMUTH consortium

ASIMUTH consortium

Consortium of public institutes (R&D and monitoring agencies) and SMEs from UK, Ireland, Spain and Portugal coordinated by Dr Julie Maguire, Daithi O'Murchu Marine Research Station, Gearhies, Bantry, Co. Cork, IRELAND

What do we plan to deliver?

The delivery of a 3-4 day Harmful Algal Bloom forecast for the aquaculture industry

situated along Europe’s Atlantic margin

A GMES-Copernicus downstream service to

the European Aquaculture Industry

Why are we developing a HAB alert system?

2007: 1.3 million tonnes20% of total fisheries productsValued at €3 billion per annum

Why are we developing a HAB alert system?

Tools used in the HAB alert system

Forecasting

1. Lagrangian models2. Eulerian models3. IBM

Ostreopsis cf. siamensis bloom: 21-23 September 2011 (Lagos, Algarve)

ASIMUTH Model example:Portugal, Algarve September 2011

Simulations with lagrangian tracers (offline)

Algarve 2011 – Model simulation

Hindcast + Nowcast + Forecast (fed by the results from the operational model)

Time to run model: two hours

Algarve 2011 – Closed beaches (impact)

News on a National newspaper

Delivery system: developing a HAB DDSS (HAB-Distributed Decision Support system)

In the HAB DDSS, modelling, satellite image analysis and in-situ data are delivered with the aim of producing short-term forecasts of harmful algal events along the European Atlantic coasts

Delivery system: IEO Viewer for data and model products

Model data distributed in a Thredds (opendap, WMS, WCS...)OGC standards, aiming at complying with INSPIRE Directive

11/04/13

Forecast of ocean conditions on shellfish harvesting areas in Galicia

11/04/13

Hindcast: Model results of chlorophyll displayed on shellfishing areas in Galician Rias in spring 2006

Bloom more intense to the south

Bloom dominated by the possibly toxic (ASP) Pseudonitzschia spp.

Delivery system

BARNAMAR smartphone App

Developed by Starlab Barcelona and the owner is the Ajuntament de Barcelona.

Applied Simulations and Integrated Modelling for the Understanding of Toxic and Harmful Algal Blooms

Past bulletins can be found at http://Asimuth.eu/HAB/bulletins.html

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Ireland: Current conditions and PredictionsReported current conditions up to 11 February 2013

Biotoxin report (long-line mussels and oysters only)AZA toxins: AZA toxins are still present in shellfish along the west coast. Low levels found in Flat/Native Oyster, slightly higher levels in Pacific Oysters and highest levels found in blue mussels.ASP toxins: No data available.DSP toxins: Not present at inshore shellfish sites.PSP toxins: Not present at inshore shellfish sites.

HABs report Pseudo-nitzschia levels are on the increase in Bantry Bay.Dinophysis: Low levels (40 cells/L) detected in the north.Alexandrium: Low levels (~400 ells/L ) detected in the north..Pseudo-nitzschia: Low levels (~5,000 cells/L ) detected in southwest.Karenia mikimotoi: Low levels detected (240 ells/L ) detected in southwest

Looking forward Toxins: AZA looks likely to depurate with increased feeding during Spring Bloom. This has started with diatom blooms most evident along the south coast.

Potential blooms: ASP events usually occur in March – April. The ASP toxin (domoic acid) producing diatoms Pseudo-nitzschia are monitored. In the last 4 weeks the diatoms Pseudo-nitzschia have increased in the southwest. Pseudo-nitzschia blooms normal occur after the Spring bloom.

Computer Model Physical forecasts: end forecast at

3 day current forecast SW coast, Bantry Bay

Computer Modelled Particle Transport (phytoplankton tracking) 3 day forecast

Ireland: Important TrendsAzaspiracid AZA toxins have been persistent in shellfish along the SW, west and NW coasts since late 2012. The toxin levels remain constant.

Domoic acid and Pseudo-nitzschiaASP toxins and Pseudo-nitzschia cell numbers are likely to increase in the next few weeks.

HISTORIC TRENDS Shellfish Toxicity : ASP closures began in week 11 (March 2009), week 14 (April 2010), week 18 (May 2011) and week 15 (April 2012).

Bulletin on the status of harmful and toxic algae: week 8 (19-25 February 2013)

Computer modelled 3 day Forecast Water flow into & out of Bantry Bay

Bulletin on the status of harmful and toxic algae: week 8 (19-25 February 2013)

Shot Head cross section: Strong inward directed currents evident (64 % greater than average).

Mouth cross section: Predicted currents into the bay are 45 % Greater than average. At 30 m water will enter the bay with a flow > 60 m3/s.

SW coast computer modelled 3 day forecast (Phytoplankton Transport)

20 metres20 metres

Mouth of Bantry Bay:A computer model shows that particles released at 0 m, 20 m and bottom waters along the transect at the entrance to Bantry Bay show that most of the particles will be retained along the north coast. At the surface and 20 m, water will move into the bay.

Forecast ends at 28-02-2013-0000hrs SW of Mizen Head:Particles released at 0 m, 20 m and bottom waters along the transect show the majority of particles headed in a northerly direction. Forecast for particles to enter SW bays in the next couple of days.

Prediction:Waters toward the north shores will be stratified (colder less saline at the surface).

Water transported into the bay is unlikely to have Dinophysis at this time of year. In the absence of Dinophysis, results indicate that Dinophysis will not be advected into Bantry over the next few days.

Pseudo-nitzschia is present in the bay at the moment. Densities are likely to increase through in-situ growth . If present outside the mouth they will be transported into the bay.

SW of Mizen Head Mouth of Bantry Bay

Chlorophyll a and Karenia mikimotoi cell densities (NMP and modelled)

Daily Sea Surface Temperature

Temperature (°C) anomaly: Data taken from the Irish data buoy network where the anomaly is the weekly difference in SST compared to the long term mean (~ 10 yrs)

Celtic Sea (M5) offlineSouthwest coast (M3) offline Northwest coast (M4) offline

IFREMER’s modelled SST product (MyOcean)

Bulletin on the status of harmful and toxic algae Week 8: 19-25 February, 2013

Observations: The Spring bloom has begun, chlorophyll levels range between 2 – 7 mg/m3 . Elevated levels are evident at the mouths of large rivers e.g. Galway Bay (river Corrib) and Clare (mouth of river Shannon) and off the off Donegal coast.

Diatoms (Skeletonema spp. Lauderia / Detonula spp. )predominate samples with highest concentrations in the south and southwest.

No Karenia mikimotoi bloom reported.

Computer modelled Karenia mikimotoi

coming soon!

Potential benefits for aquaculture industry

1. Allow protective measures to be implemented on time

2. Change harvesting practices

3. Make informed decisions with desired outcomes

4. Determine what instruments should be developed to support management and policy decisions

5. Assist the growth of the aquaculture industry through the design of improved management systems that are sustainable

GEOSS Task SB-01 Oceans and Society: Blue PlanetStrategic Targets (monitoring, analysis and prediction) Ecosystems: Increased operational monitoring of major marine and coastal ecosystems on an annualbasis including properties such as extent, water temperature, salinity, pH and pCO2, phytoplanktonspecies composition and productivity and marine resource stocks, based on remote sensing andsampled in-situ observations using internationally agreed standards.Agriculture: Improved collaboration and coordination on the use and applications of Earthobservations for fisheries and aquaculture.

TAC = Thematic Assembly CentresMFC = Monitoring and Forecasting Centres

Air, sea & ground based systems &

instruments

OGC (Thredds, Geoserver)

Model products and in situ data (hydrography, HAB, biogeochemical data) gathered or generated by ASIMUTH with the possibility of distribution of some of them to GEO and data collaborators (Seadatanet, ICES, EuroGOOS, EMODNET, Copernicus)

ASIMUTH website: www.asimuth.eu

The main pages, brochure and fact sheet have been translated into French, Spanish and Portuguese