Forecasting during the SOP1-2

Forecasting Forecast Sub-Group of the AOC/ST2

J-P Lafore , D. Parker (Leeds U.), C. Thorncroft (SUNY - US), Z. Mumba, A. Kamga, M.C. Dufresne (ACMAD),

A. Assam (ASECNA), E. Afiesimama (Nigerian Met S), A. Diongue (Senegelese Met S), A. Beljaars (ECMWF),

S. Milton (UK Met O), W. Thiaw (NOAA)

PLAN

1. Forcasting requirements

2. Organization• Workplan• Rosters• Briefing

3. Tools and methods• RETIM-Afrique Synergie, MSG• AOC-Web site

4. Nowcasting

5. Main issues to be solved

1. Forecasting requirements

1. Operational needs:– Provide the forecasts of key aspects AOC decisions – Help to plan IOPs and relevant observation strategies– Security (aircraft protection)– Answer to PIs and platforms needs

2. Contribute to the science:– Evaluate the skill of models– Predictability– Feed the scientific discussion at AOC based on a description

of the WAM system at all scales and for all its components

Review of the TT8 implementation plan:– Briefing schedule must be refined:– Lack of nowcasting requirements – Flights concerning MCSs: takeoff time, poor forecast

skill…

Dec Jan Feb Ma Apr May June July Aug Sept

SOP0

ForecastTraining Workshop

PreparatoryForecast Meeting

SOP1-2

ForecastTeam 1

ForecastTeam 2 Forecast

Team 3

1525

2. Organization: Planning

1. Preparatory Meeting:15-22 March– Participants: ACMAD, ASECNA, MF

2. Training Workshop:22May-2June– Priority on practicals– Funded by AMMA-EU

3. Forecasting Team at ACMAD:1st May-15Sep.– Funding not secured (~30k€)– ~12 African forecasters from ~10 countries– 3 periods: Rosters of 5 Forecasters for periods 1-3

6 Forecasters for period 2– + Forecasting resource persons from ACMAD– + Forecast Scientific Support

2. Organization: Schedule - Tasks

03

Day D

Daily Rosters of Forecasters

Shifts

06 09 12 15 18 21 0000

Period 2

BriefingD+1B107?

Briefing>D+1

B216?

ARPEGE

A-TropiqueUK

ECMWFGlobal NWP

Availability by RETIM-Afrique

B0On request

TASKSAnalysis D-1, DForecast D, D+1B1 preparation

Forecast D+2, D+4B2 preparationMonitor forecasts (D+1)Collaboration with airport/NowcastingDaily Weather reportEvaluation Report for D-2

Daily Rosters of Forecasters

Shifts

Period 1-3

BriefingB1

?

B0On request

3. Tools -Methods• Synergie Forecasting System (MF)

– 4 Stations at ACMAD– Fed with NWP products + MSG with the RETIM

link

• AOC-Web site:– VSAT internet link at ACMAD– Reports, quicklooks, NWP, diagnostics,

research models…– In construction: Medias-France, CNRM– MCS tracking: RDT from SAF-Nowcasting

• Synthetic analysis– Main features on a single synthetic map for

analysis and forecasts• WASA at 06, 18: West Afr. Synthetic Analysis• WASF at 06, 18: West Afr. Synthetic Forecast

3. Synthetic analysis: example

ITF

HL

TEJ

AEJ

Dry Air

ACMADForecasters

Team (2)

AirportASECNA

DMNNiger

AOC Niamey

IRD

Data flows and Web sites

ToulouseAOC-Web

CESBIO

Leeds U.

SUNY

IPSL

CEH

ftp

Etc…

RETIM-Afrique

BeninSuper Site

GourmaSuper Site

Dakar?SOP3

ResearchCenters

SpecificModels runs

AnalysisDiagnosticsIndexes…

NWPCenters

OperationalForecasts + Analysis

Minimum set ofFields

DiagnosticsIndexes

Rule

Save communication with Niger!

internet

AOC-Web

Others?

NCEP

Morocco

Météo-France

ECMWF

UK Met O

VSATinternet

Ouagadougou

AOC-Web Sitehttp://aoc.amma-international.org

PIs contribution

To provide

Quick Looks

Dec Jan Feb Ma Apr May June July Aug Sept

SOP0

ForecastTraining Workshop

PreparatoryForecast Meeting

SOP1-2

ForecastTeam 1

ForecastTeam 2 Forecast

Team 3

1525

Forecasting activities Plan

AOC-Web development Plan

Version 1 Version 3Version 2

1st Development 2nd Development

VSAT

TASKS New products integration: MEDIAS Strong collaboration with PIs and producersCoordination: JP LaforeEvaluation by producers and users

4. Nowcasting

A subgroup (ASECNA+CNRM) works on this issue

The main points are:1.Definition and setup of a procedure for

the nowcasting to guide flights• 3 persons team at Airport: on request

Forecaster + PI at ground +Air controler• Tools: MSG products• Communication issue with aircrafts?

2.Praticals will be elaborated to train forecasters at airport collaboration with pilots and aircraft PIs

On the use of Tracking algorithms in AMMA

MCS tracking from Meteosat IR 2 applications

1. Nowcasting trajectories + main characteristics: stage, speed, surface, duration…• See AMMA-SAT web site:• Will be put on AOC-Web

2. Climatologie of MCSs: Available on request

• Identification of different types of MCSs (4 classes)

• Documentation over 8 years: SOP preparation– Examples: Nbr of MCSs for a given period and location

Daily distribution of MCS passage…

5. Main issues to be solvedBudget

– Not secured for SOP (~30k€) current actionsNowcasting

– Communication issue – Define a procedure– Work on case studies

Collaboration between PI, pilots, Forecast groupBriefing Time?

– Discussed yesterday must be finalizedAOC-Web development MEDIAS + CNRM

– Collaboration with Pis provide Quick looks (AOC coordination)

provide specifics products– Coordination by JP Lafore– Mirror site at other site? (Ouaga., Dakar)

Still a lot of work!– Organize the Forecasters team– Finalize methodes practical– Prepare the Training Workshop (22 May – 2nd June)

2. Organization: Briefings

• Crucial issue to be discussed– Morning briefing B1 07UTC ( 8:00Loc)– Afternoon briefing B2 16UTC (17:00Loc)

• B1 implies the FT to start work around 2UTC

• B2 seems too late• B0 specific briefing at ACMAD early in the

morning• At what time is the briefing for periods

without aircrafts (late morning or early afternoon?)