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Forecasting Methods Application
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Alpha 0.01Beta 0.12Gamma 0.95
Year Game Attendees t
2007 1 34200 - 1 33288 1.032 39800 - 2 33709 1.183 38200 34840 3 34129 1.124 26900 35220 4 34550 0.785 35100 35300 5 34970 1.00
2008 1 36100 35480 6 35390 1.022 40200 35160 7 35811 1.123 39100 35380 8 36231 1.084 25300 35340 9 36652 0.695 36200 36600 10 37072 0.98
2009 1 35900 37400 11 37493 0.962 46500 37920 12 37913 1.233 43100 38520 13 38333 1.124 27900 39720 14 38754 0.725 39200 39640 15 39174 1.00
2010 1 41900 39800 16 39595 1.062 46100 40240 17 40015 1.153 43900 40500 18 40435 1.094 30100 40620 19 40856 0.745 40500 41040 20 41276 0.98
2011 1 42500 41100 21 41697 1.022 48200 41860 22 42117 1.143 44200 43320 23 42537 1.044 33900 24 42958 0.795 47800 25 43378 1.10
2012 1 469002 501003 459004 363005 49900
Deaseasonalized Attendees
Projected Deseasonalized
Attendees
Historical Seasonality
Factor
Level Trend Forecast Error
32868 42033292 421 1.02 3383733717 421 1.17 3928434148 422 1.09 3719434587 424 0.74 2568435008 424 1.01 3545935429 424 1.03 3638035835 422 1.18 4229636244 420 1.12 4051036623 415 0.78 2845737029 414 1.00 3715337421 411 1.02 3816637867 416 1.12 4254138299 417 1.08 4136738731 419 0.69 2689839159 420 0.98 3831939619 425 0.96 3808040020 422 1.22 4898240429 421 1.12 4542940860 422 0.72 2937841274 421 1.00 4128341681 419 1.05 4391242097 419 1.16 4863442497 417 1.09 4623942945 420 0.74 3157843418 427 0.98 42590
1.02 44774 -2126 4519506 4519506 2125.911.15 50711 611 373693 2446600 611.301.04 46588 688 473126 1788775 687.840.79 35510 -790 624042 1497592 789.961.10 49900 0 0 1198073 0.01
Seasonality Factor
Squared Error
Mean Squared
Error
Absolute Deviation
Bias
2125.91 4.53 4.53 -2126 -1.001368.61 1.22 2.88 -1515 -1.111141.69 1.50 2.42 -827 -0.721053.76 2.18 2.36 -1617 -1.53843.01 0.00 1.89 -1617 -1.92
Mean Average Deviation
Absolute Percentage
Error
Mean Average Percentage Error
Tracking Signal
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34840 3 SUMMARY OUTPUT35220 435300 5 Regression Statistics35480 6 Multiple R 0.976599834435160 7 R Square 0.953747236535380 8 Adjusted R Square 0.951312880535340 9 Standard Error 589.3856605236600 10 Observations 2137400 1137920 12 ANOVA38520 13 df SS39720 14 Regression 1 136096932.98739640 15 Residual 19 6600133.67965439800 16 Total 20 142697066.666740240 1740500 18 Coefficients Standard Error40620 19 Intercept 32867.930736 304.604389559141040 20 X Variable 1 420.41558442 21.239984861441100 2141860 2243320 23
MS F Significance F136096933 391.78626559 3.8454314E-014
347375.45682
t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%107.90366739 5.90087E-028 32230.3864215 33505.47505 32230.38642219.793591528 3.84543E-014 375.959785185 464.87138365 375.95978519
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Upper 95.0%33505.47505
464.87138365
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Alpha 0.89Beta 0.01
Year Game Attendees Level Trend Forecast Error Squared Error33595 378
2007 1 34200 34176 380 339732 39800 39246 427 345563 38200 38356 414 396734 26900 28154 308 387705 35100 34399 367 28462
2008 1 36100 35959 379 347662 40200 39792 414 363383 39100 39217 404 402064 25300 26813 276 396215 36200 35237 357 27089
2009 1 35900 35868 360 355942 46500 45414 452 362283 43100 43392 427 458664 27900 29582 285 438195 39200 38214 368 29867
2010 1 41900 41549 398 385822 46100 45661 435 419473 43900 44132 415 460964 30100 31627 286 445475 40500 39593 363 31913
2011 1 42500 42231 386 399552 48200 47610 436 426173 44200 44606 401 480464 33900 35074 302 450085 47800 46487 413 35376
2012 1 46900 46900 0 02 50100 47313 -2787 77675153 45900 47726 1826 33341074 36300 48139 11839 1401603495 49900 48552 -1348 1817337
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Mean Squared Error Absolute Deviation Mean Average Deviation
0 0.0061106558 0.00611065583883758 2787.0262016989 1393.51615617733700541 1825.9537072581 1537.6620065376
37815493 11838.9336162151 4112.97990895730615862 1348.0864748279 3560.0012221312
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Absolute Percentage Error Mean Average Percentage Error Bias
1.30291169036184E-005 1.30291169036184E-005 05.5629265503 2.7814697897 -27873.978112652 3.1803507438 -961
32.6141421934 10.5387986062 108782.7015761019 8.9713541053 9530
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Tracking Signal
-1-2
-0.62502591662.64476249632.6769003553
1 34200 SUMMARY OUTPUT2 398003 38200 Regression Statistics4 26900 Multiple R 0.43496989095 35100 R Square 0.1891988066 36100 Adjusted R Square 0.15394658027 40200 Standard Error 5886.57400468 39100 Observations 259 25300
10 36200 ANOVA11 35900 df SS12 46500 Regression 1 185976069.230813 43100 Residual 23 796990330.769214 27900 Total 24 98296640015 3920016 41900 Coefficients Standard Error17 46100 Intercept 33595 2427.09663940118 43900 X Variable 1 378.23076923 163.264187772519 3010020 4050021 4250022 4820023 4420024 3390025 47800
MS F Significance F185976069.23 5.3670031206 0.029779567634651753.512
t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%13.841640854 1.21688E-012 28574.1680657 38615.831934 28574.1680662.3166793305 0.0297795676 40.4930646864 715.96847378 40.493064686
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Chart Title
Upper 95.0%38615.831934715.96847378
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Chart Title
Alpha 0.93Year Game Attendees Level Forecast Error Squared Error
348402007 1 34200 34244 34840
2 39800 39421 342443 38200 38283 394214 26900 27677 382835 35100 34593 27677
2008 1 36100 35997 345932 40200 39913 359973 39100 39156 399134 25300 26246 391565 36200 35520 26246
2009 1 35900 35874 355202 46500 45774 358743 43100 43283 457744 27900 28950 432835 39200 38500 28950
2010 1 41900 41668 385002 46100 45797 416683 43900 44030 457974 30100 31051 440305 40500 39855 31051
2011 1 42500 42319 398552 48200 47798 423193 44200 44446 477984 33900 34620 444465 47800 46900 34620
2012 1 46900 46900 0 02 50100 46900 -3200 102400083 45900 46900 1000 9999974 36300 46900 10600 1123599735 49900 46900 -3000 9000008
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Column C Column E
Mean Squared Error Absolute Deviation Mean Average Deviation
0 0.0012746537 0.00127465375120004 3200.0012746537 1600.00127465373746669 999.9987253463 1400.0004248846
30899995 10599.9987253463 370026519997 3000.0012746537 3560.0002549307
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Column C Column E
Absolute Percentage Error Mean Average Percentage Error Bias
2.71781167173798E-006 2.71781167173798E-006 06.3872280931 3.1936154055 -32002.1786464604 2.8552924238 -2200
29.2010984169 9.4417439221 84006.0120266025 8.7558004582 5400
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Column C Column E
Tracking Signal
-1-2
-1.57143082592.27026889231.5168520337
Year Game Attendees Level Forecast Error Squared Error2007 1 34200
2 398003 382004 269005 35100
2008 1 361002 402003 391004 253005 36200
2009 1 359002 465003 431004 279005 39200
2010 1 419002 461003 439004 301005 40500
2011 1 425002 482003 442004 339005 47800 43073.33
2012 1 46900 43073 -3827 146433782 50100 43073 -7027 493740443 45900 43073 -2827 79900444 36300 43073 6773 458780445 49900 43073 -6827 46603378
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Chart Title
Column C Column E
Mean Squared Error Absolute Deviation Mean Average Deviation
14643378 3826.6666666667 3826.666666666732008711 7026.6666666667 5426.666666666724002489 2826.6666666667 456029471378 6773.3333333333 5113.333333333332897778 6826.6666666667 5456
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Column C Column E
Absolute Percentage Error Mean Average Percentage Error Bias
8.1592039801 8.1592039801 -382714.0252827678 11.0922433739 -108536.1583151779 9.4476006419 -13680
18.6593204775 11.7505306008 -690713.6806947228 12.1365634252 -13733
Tracking Signal
-1-2-3
-1.3507170795-2.5171065494
Year Game Attendees Level Forecast Error Squared Error2007 1 34200
2 398003 382004 269005 35100
2008 1 361002 402003 391004 253005 36200
2009 1 359002 465003 431004 279005 39200
2010 1 419002 461003 439004 301005 40500
2011 1 425002 482003 442004 339005 47800 43320
2012 1 46900 43320 -3580 128164002 50100 43320 -6780 459684003 45900 43320 -2580 66564004 36300 43320 7020 492804005 49900 43320 -6580 43296400
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Column C Column E
Mean Squared Error Absolute Deviation Mean Average Deviation
12816400 3580 358029392400 6780 518021813733 2580 4313.333333333328680400 7020 499031603600 6580 5308
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Column C Column E
Absolute Percentage Error Mean Average Percentage Error Bias
7.6332622601 7.6332622601 -358013.5329341317 10.5830981959 -103605.6209150327 8.9290371415 -12940
19.3388429752 11.5314885999 -592013.1863727455 11.862465429 -12500
Tracking Signal
-1-2-3
-1.1863727455-2.3549359457
Year Game Attendees Level Forecast Error Squared Error2007 1 34200
2 398003 382004 269005 35100
2008 1 361002 402003 391004 253005 36200
2009 1 359002 465003 431004 279005 39200
2010 1 419002 461003 439004 301005 40500
2011 1 425002 482003 442004 339005 47800 38512
2012 1 46900 38512 -8388 703585442 50100 38512 -11588 1342817443 45900 38512 -7388 545825444 36300 38512 2212 48929445 49900 38512 -11388 129686544
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Chart Title
Column C Column E
Mean Squared Error Absolute Deviation Mean Average Deviation
70358544 8388 8388102320144 11588 998886407611 7388 9121.333333333366028944 2212 739478760464 11388 8192.8
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Column C Column E
Absolute Percentage Error Mean Average Percentage Error Bias
17.8848614072 17.8848614072 -838823.129740519 20.5073009631 -19976
16.0958605664 19.0368208309 -273646.0936639118 15.8010316011 -25152
22.8216432866 17.2051539382 -36540
Tracking Signal
-1-2-3
-3.4016770354-4.4600136705
Year Game Attendees Level Forecast Error Squared Error2007 1 34200
2 398003 382004 269005 35100
2008 1 361002 402003 391004 253005 36200
2009 1 359002 465003 431004 279005 39200
2010 1 419002 461003 439004 301005 40500
2011 1 425002 482003 442004 339005 47800 47800
2012 1 46900 47800 900 8100002 50100 47800 -2300 52900003 45900 47800 1900 36100004 36300 47800 11500 1322500005 49900 47800 -2100 4410000
Mean Squared Error Absolute Deviation Mean Average Deviation
810000 900 9003050000 2300 16003236667 1900 1700
35490000 11500 415029274000 2100 3740
Absolute Percentage Error Mean Average Percentage Error Bias
1.9189765458 1.9189765458 9004.5908183633 3.2548974546 -14004.1394335512 3.5497428201 500
31.6804407713 10.5824173079 120004.2084168337 9.3076172131 9900
Tracking Signal
1-0.875
0.29411764712.89156626512.6470588235
