Forecast of Aviation Demand · 2015-01-14 · FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND 2014 OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4‐3 Annual Passenger Enplanements Passenger enplanement projections were

OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4‐1

4ForecastofAviationDemand

Introduction ThedevelopmentofaviationactivityprojectionsfortheairportsincludedinOhio’saviationsystemisakeystepinassessingtheneedforandphasingoffuturedevelopmentrequirements.Projectionsareusefultoevaluatethefuturecapacityofthesystemaswellastoplanforfutureairsideandlandsidefacilities.Forthisanalysis,projectionsweredevelopedfora20‐yearperiod;2012servedasthebaseyearsincethiswasthemostrecentperiodforwhichacompletecalendaryearofhistoricdatawasavailable.

TheassumptionsandmethodologiesusedtoprepareaviationdemandprojectionsfortheairportsincludedintheOhioAirportsFocusStudyarediscussedinthefollowingsections:

GeneralApproachtoForecasting CommercialServiceActivityProjections

AnnualPassengerEnplanements AnnualAirlineOperations AirCargoTonnage

GeneralAviationActivityProjections BasedAircraftProjections

OperationalFleetMix GeneralAviationOperationsProjections

Local/ItinerantOperations Summary

General Approach to Forecasting ThegeneralapproachusedtodevelopaviationforecastsforOhio'sairportsystemwastoidentifyrelationshipsbetweenOhioairportactivitylevels,U.S.aviationactivitymetricspreparedbytheFAA,andOhio‐specificpopulationtrends.Actualtrendsindemand,experiencedonastatewidebasisandatindividualsystemairports,werealsoconsidered.Currentandhistoricairport‐specificdatapresentedinthischapterwerederivedfromFAAsourcessuchas5010FormsandtheTerminalAreaForecast,airportsponsors,andtheOhioDepartmentofTransportation(ODOT).

Projectionspresentedinthischapteraresegregatedintocommercialserviceandgeneralaviationsections.WhiletheprimaryintentoftheOhioAirportsFocusStudyistotargetgeneralaviationairportsandtheiractivity,anoverviewofprojectedcommercialserviceactivityisprovidedinthischapterforcontext.

Commercialserviceactivityprojectionsfocusonenplanements(passengersdepartingatanairport)andairlineoperations(arrivalsandtake‐offs).EnplanementforecastswerebasedonexistingprojectionsaspresentedintheFAATerminalAreaForecast(TAF).SincetheOhioAirportsFocusStudyhadthebenefitofcollectingup‐to‐date2012enplanementestimatesforeachairport,theFAAgrowthratespresentedintheTAFwereappliedtothecurrentoperationalestimate.CommercialairlineoperationsprojectionsweretakendirectlyfromtheFAATAF.AircargoactivityisalsoderivedfromcurrentFAAprojections.

Generalaviationactivity,measuredintermsoftotalannualaircraftoperations(takeoffsandlandings),issometimesrelatedtothenumberofaircraftbasedataparticularairport.Therefore,preparationofbasedaircraftprojectionsisanimportantelementintheOhioAirportsFocusStudy.

FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND 2014


Forthisstudy,basedaircraftwereprojectedusingtwomethodologies:top‐downandbottom‐up.Thetop‐downmethodologyexaminedtheprojectedgrowthrateofthenationalgeneralaviationactiveaircraftfleetaspresentedintheFAAAerospaceForecast,FiscalYears2013‐2033.Theactiveaircraftgrowthratewasappliedtoeachairportthroughtheendofthe20‐yearplanningperiod.Thebottom‐upmethodologytakesintoconsiderationboththeaforementionednationalgeneralaviationactiveaircraftgrowthrateaswellaseachairport’sassociatedcountypopulationprojectionfromtheU.S.Census.

TodevelopprojectionsofgeneralaviationaircraftoperationsforOhioairports,top‐downandbottom‐upmethodologieswerealsoused.Thetop‐downmethodologyappliesthegrowthrateoftheFAA’snationalGAhoursflownprojectiontoeachOhioairport’sbase‐yeargeneralaviationoperationsandextendsitthroughtheendoftheplanningperiod.Thismethodologyassumesthatgeneralaviationoperationsaredirectlycorrelatedtothenumberofhoursflownandthatiftheaveragehoursflownperoperationremainsconstant,operationsmustincreaseifhoursflownareprojectedtoincrease.Thebottom‐upmethodologyprojectsgeneralaviationoperationsbyapplyingthecurrentOPBA(operationsperbasedaircraft)foreachairporttothepreferredbasedaircraftprojection.

Commercial Service Activity Projections Commercialserviceactivityprojectionsweredevelopedforpassengerenplanements,annualoperations,andaircargotonnages.Calendaryear2012wasusedasthebaseyearfortheseprojections,withthemostrecentFAAforecasts(FAAAerospaceForecasts,FY2013‐2033)usedasbothareferenceandaprojectiontool.InformationfromtheFAA’sTerminalAreaForecast(TAF)wasalsousedinthisanalysis.

Airlineoperationsaretypicallydefinedbythefollowingfourcategories:

Majorairlineswithgrossoperatingrevenuesofmorethan$1billionduringanycalendaryear. Nationalairlinesthatgrossbetween$100millionand$1billionduringanycalendaryear. Regionalairlinesthatgrosslessthan$100millionduringanycalendaryear. Commuterairlines,whichareclassifiedbythetypeofaircraftusedratherthanthelevelof

operatingrevenue.Theterm“commuter”isnotassociatedwiththeU.S.DepartmentofTransportation(DOT)reportingsystemforcarrierearnings.Commuterairlinesoperateaircraftwithamaximumof60seatsandconductatleastfivescheduledroundtripsperweekbetweentwoormorepoints.

Operationsconductedbyanyoftheairlinetypeslistedaboveareconsideredcommercialserviceoperations.Forthisanalysis,allforoperationstypesarecombined.UnconstrainedprojectionsofcommercialactivitywerepreparedfortheOhioairportscurrentlyprovidingscheduledpassengerandaircargoservices.Theseairportsincludethefollowing:

Akron Akron‐Canton(CAK) Cleveland Cleveland‐HopkinsInternational(CLE) Columbus PortColumbusInternational(CMH) Columbus RickenbackerInternational(LCK) Dayton JamesM.CoxDaytonInternational(DAY) Toledo ToledoExpress(TOL) Youngstown/Warren Youngstown‐WarrenRegional(YNG)



Annual Passenger Enplanements PassengerenplanementprojectionsweredevelopedbyapplyingtheprojectedgrowthratesforeachairportasfoundintheTAFtotheFAA’smostrecent(2012)enplanementestimate.ThepassengerenplanementsprojectionsforOhio’ssevenairportsarediscussedinthefollowingsections.

TodevelopenplanementsprojectionsforthecommercialserviceairportsinOhio,theTAFairport‐specificprojectedgrowthratebetween2012andeachofthe5‐,10‐,and20‐yearmilestoneswereused.Thesegrowthrateswerethenappliedtobaseyear(2012)FAAenplanements.

Thespecificformulausedtodevelopthisprojectionforeachairportisasfollows:

TAF5‐YearEnplanementProjection(2012‐2017AAGR)*BaseYearFAAEnplanement=2017ProjectedEnplanements

Example:(1.00+0.044)5*(910,313)=1,127,250


Example:(1.00+0.038)10*(910,313)=1,326,620


Example:(1.00+0.036)20*(910,313)=1,837,470

Thisformulaisusedforallenplanementprojectionscontainedinthischapter.



Akron‐Canton Airport EnplanementsatAkron‐CantonAirportoverthelastdecadeincreasedfrom414,643in2002to921,767in2012,asshowninTable4‐1.Akron‐Cantonhasexperiencedstronggrowthoverthelastdecade,havinghadonlyoneyearinwhichenplanementsdeclined(2007).TheairportismarketedasanalternativetoCleveland‐HopkinsInternationalinNortheastOhioandhasbenefittedfromthegrowthinservicebyAirTranAirways/SouthwestAirlinesandFrontierAirlines.1

ToprojectenplanementsforAkron‐Canton,theairport’sprojectedTAFgrowthrateswereappliedtothebaseyearenplanements.Enplanementsareprojectedtoreachover1.86millionby2032(seeTable4‐1).Thisresultsinanaverageannualgrowthrateof3.6percent.

Table4‐1Akron‐CantonAirport

HistoricandProjectedEnplanementsHistoric Enplanements % Growth

2002 414,643

2003 536,589 29.4%

2004 652,477 21.6%

2005 706,664 8.3%

2006 720,827 2.0%

2007 683,007 ‐5.2%

2008 709,338 3.9%

2009 717,212 1.1%

2010 757,792 5.7%

2011 788,158 4.0%

2012 921,767 17%

AAGR 2002‐2012 8.3%

Projected Enplanements % Growth

2017 1,141,440 23.8%

2022 1,343,310 17.7%

2032 1,860,590 38.5%

AAGR 2012‐2032 3.6%

Source: FAA Terminal Area Forecast, Airport Website, CDM Smith

1 Frontier moved all operations from Akron‐Canton to Cleveland‐Hopkins International in September 2012



Cleveland‐Hopkins International Airport EnplanementsatCleveland‐HopkinsInternationalAirportdecreasedfromover5.2millionin2002toover4.3millionin2012.2012markstheairport’slowestpassengerenplanementstotalofthe10‐yeartimeperiod.Enplanementsattheairporthavefluctuatedsince2001butseveralspecificeventsareattributableforthisdrop,includingastheeconomicrecessionof2008/2009andthemergerofContinental/UnitedAirlines.

ToprojectenplanementsforCleveland‐HopkinsInternational,theairport’sprojectedTAFgrowthrateswereappliedtothe2012enplanements.Enplanementsatthisairportareprojectedtoreachover6.5millionby2032(seeTable4‐2).Thisrepresentsanaverageannualgrowthrateof2.1percent.

Table4‐2Cleveland‐HopkinsInternationalAirportHistoricandProjectedEnplanements

Year Enplanements % Growth

2002 5,223,503

2003 4,996,766 ‐4.3%

2004 5,268,160 5.4%

2005 5,553,860 5.4%

2006 5,436,824 ‐2.1%

2007 5,537,153 1.8%

2008 5,485,860 ‐0.9%

2009 4,731,869 ‐13.7%

2010 4,604,934 ‐2.7%

2011 4,465,468 ‐3.0%

2012 4,346,941 ‐2.7%

AAGR 2002‐2012 ‐1.8%


2017 4,895,630 12.6%

2022 5,393,460 10.2%

2032 6,546,130 21.4%

AAGR 2012‐2032 2.1%

Source: FAA, FAA Terminal Area Forecast, CDM Smith



Port Columbus International Airport EnplanementsatPortColumbusInternationalAirportdecreasedfromover3.2millionin2002tonearly3.2millionin2012.In2004,passengerenplanementsreacheditslowestpointforthe10‐yeartimeperiod,withjustunder3.02millionpassengerenplanements.PortColumbus’declinein2008and2009canbeattributedtoseveralfactors,includingtheglobaleconomicrecessionof2008/2009,risingfuelprices,andthebankruptcyofSkybusAirlines,whichoperateditshubattheairportuntil2008.

ToprojectenplanementsforPortColumbusInternational,theairport’sprojectedTAFgrowthrateswereappliedtothebaseyearenplanementsforeachplanningyear.Enplanementsatthisairportareprojectedtoreachover4.9millionby2032(seeTable4‐3).Thisrepresentsanaverageannualgrowthrateof2.2percent.

Table4‐3PortColumbusInternationalAirportHistoricandProjectedEnplanements


2002 3,204,770

2003 3,149,103 ‐1.7%

2004 3,021,583 ‐4.0%

2005 3,263,061 8.0%

2006 3,274,398 0.3%

2007 3,725,782 13.8%

2008 3,493,739 ‐6.2%

2009 3,102,363 ‐11.2%

2010 3,125,287 0.7%

2011 3,144,548 0.6%

2012 3,190,068 1.4%

AAGR 2002‐2012 ‐0.05%


2017 3,491,460 9.4%

2022 3,919,700 12.3%

2032 4,940,220 26.0%

AAGR 2012‐2032 2.2%

Source: CRAA, FAA Terminal Area Forecast, CDM Smith



Rickenbacker International Airport EnplanementsatRickenbackerInternationalAirportincreasedfrom756in2002to6,513in2012.In2004,passengerenplanementsreacheditshighmarkforthe10‐yeartimeperiod,withnearly93,000passengerenplanements.Atitspeak,RickenbackerInternationalwasservedbySoutheastAirlines,PanAmClipperConnection(Boston‐MaineAirways),andHootersAir.Eachoftheseairlinesceasedserviceattheairportforvariousreasonsin2004,2005,and2006,respectively.2DirectAirservedRickenbackeronaseasonalbasisfrom2008to2011,andVisionAirlinesbrieflyoperatedattheairportin2012.Currently,Allegiantisthesolepassengercarrierattheairport,whichbeganyear‐roundserviceinthefallof2012.3

ToprojectenplanementsforRickenbackerInternational,theairport’sprojectedTAFgrowthrateswereappliedtothebaseyearenplanementsforeachplanningyear.Enplanementsatthisairportareprojectedtoreachnearly7,650by2032(seeTable4‐4).Thisrepresentsanaverageannualgrowthrateof0.8percent.

Table4‐4RickenbackerInternationalAirportHistoricandProjectedEnplanementsYear Enplanements % Growth

2002 756

2003 5,485 625.5%

2004 92,738 1590.8%

2005 42,163 ‐54.5%

2006 6,491 ‐84.6%

2007 3,587 ‐44.7%

2008 5,318 48.3%

2009 5,494 3.3%

2010 4,692 ‐14.6%

2011 6,129 30.6%

2012 6,513 6.3%

AAGR 2002‐2012 24.0%


2017 6,780 4.1%

2022 7,060 4.1%

2032 7,650 8.4%

AAGR 2012‐2032 0.8%

Source: FAA Terminal Area Forecast, CDM Smith

2 http://www.aviationpros.com/news/10401439/hooters‐flights‐unlikely‐to‐return‐to‐rickenbacker‐columbus 3 http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2013/03/04/Airport‐positive‐despite‐airline‐cutting‐flights.html



James M. Cox Dayton International Airport EnplanementsatJamesM.CoxDaytonInternationalAirportincreasedfrom1.07millionin2002toover1.28millionin2012.In2004,passengerenplanementsreacheditshighpointforthe10‐yeartimeperiod,withover1.44millionpassengerenplanements.Withtheexceptionofafewyears,DaytonInternationalhasseensteadyservicegainsfromtheremaininglegacyairlines(American,Delta,United,USAirways)and,morerecently,fromlow‐costcarriers(AirTran/Southwest,Frontier).Thedeclineinenplanementsexperiencedin2009and2010canbeattributedtotheglobaleconomicrecessionof2008/2009andthesubsequentairlinecapacityreductions.

ToprojectenplanementsforJamesM.CoxDaytonInternational,theairport’sprojectedTAFgrowthrateswereappliedtothebaseyearenplanementsforeachplanningyear.Enplanementsatthisairportareprojectedtoreachover1.5millionby2032(seeTable4‐5).Thisrepresentsanaverageannualgrowthrateof0.9percent.

Table4‐5JamesM.CoxDaytonInternationalAirportHistoricandProjectedEnplanementsYear Enplanements % Growth

2002 1,076,388

2003 1,269,718 18.0%

2004 1,444,236 13.7%

2005 1,253,502 ‐13.2%

2006 1,275,069 1.7%

2007 1,392,789 9.2%

2008 1,440,170 3.4%

2009 1,302,298 ‐9.6%

2010 1,221,086 ‐6.2%

2011 1,259,396 3.1%

2012 1,288,541 2.3%

AAGR 2002‐2012 1.8%


2017 1,400,520 8.7%

2022 1,446,320 3.3%

2032 1,542,610 6.7%

AAGR 2012‐2032 0.9%




Toledo Express Airport EnplanementsatToledoExpressAirportdecreasedfrom325,452in2002to78,755in2012,representinganaverageannualgrowthrateof‐13.2percent.2002markstheairport’shighpointforpassengerenplanementsoverthe10‐yeartimeperiod,withjust325,452passengerenplanements.ThesteadydeclineinairlineserviceatToledoExpressoverthelastdecadecanbeattributedtoavarietyoffactors,includingairlineconsolidation/capacityreduction,aswellasstrongcompetitionfromnearbyDetroitMetropolitanWayneCountyAirport.USAirwaysandATAbothceasedoperationsattheairportbythestartof2005,whileDeltaAirLinessteadilyreducedservicebeforeceasingalloperationsin2011.4DirectAiralsoservedtheairportforseveralyearsbeforesuspendingoperationsin2012.5AllegiantAirandAmericanAirlinesEagleAirlinesaretheonlyremainingcarriersatToledoExpress.6

ToprojectenplanementsforToledoExpress,theairport’sprojectedTAFgrowthrateswereappliedtothebaseyearenplanementsforeachplanningyear.Enplanementsatthisairportareprojectedtoreach96,000by2032(seeTable4‐6).Thisrepresentsanaverageannualgrowthrateof1percent.

Table4‐6ToledoExpressAirport

HistoricandProjectedEnplanementsYear Enplanements % Growth

2002 325,452

2003 290,385 ‐10.8%

2004 313,781 8.1%

2005 258,391 ‐17.7%

2006 200,277 ‐22.5%

2007 170,027 ‐15.1%

2008 139,793 ‐17.8%

2009 97,731 ‐30.1%

2010 87,199 ‐10.8%

2011 78,423 ‐10.1%

2012 78,755 0.4%

AAGR 2002‐2012 ‐13.2%


2017 82,530 4.8%

2022 86,640 5.0%

2032 96,030 10.8%

AAGR 2012‐2032 1.0%


4 http://www.toledoblade.com/local/2005/01/11/Limo‐firm‐abruptly‐ends‐Express‐Airport‐service.html 5 http://www.toledoblade.com/local/2012/03/14/DirectAir‐suspends‐operations.html 6 http://travel.usatoday.com/flights/post/2011/02/delta‐air‐lines‐drops‐toledo/144259/1



Youngstown‐Warren Regional Airport EnplanementsatYoungstown‐WarrenRegionalAirportincreasedfrom13,466in2002to40,102in2012.In2003,passengerenplanementsreacheditslowestpointforthe10‐yeartimeperiod,withjust7,196passengerenplanements.NumerousairlineshaveservedYoungstown‐WarrenRegionalatvariouspointsthroughoutitshistoryandverylittleserviceexisteduntilthearrivalofAllegiantAirin2006.WithstrongloadfactorsAllegiantAirhasincreasedfrequenciesandaddeddestinationsoverthelast5years.Growthattheairporthaslargelybeenincrementalandhasmirroredtheeconomicgrowthoverthelast10yearsoftheMahoningValley.7FrontierAirlinesalsooperatecasino“junkets,”orcharterflights,outoftheairport,havingreplacedXtraAirwaysin2013.8

ToprojectenplanementsforYoungstown‐WarrenRegional,theairport’sprojectedTAFgrowthrateswereappliedtothebaseyearenplanementsforeachplanningyear.Enplanementsatthisairportareprojectedtoremainat40,000through2032(seeTable4‐7),withnogrowthprojectedbytheTAF.

Table4‐7Youngstown‐WarrenRegionalAirportHistoricandProjectedEnplanements


2002 13,466

2003 7,196 ‐46.6%

2004 20,647 186.9%

2005 8,175 ‐60.4%

2006 9,613 17.6%

2007 17,680 83.9%

2008 18,109 2.4%

2009 16,418 ‐9.3%

2010 24,279 47.9%

2011 34,957 44.0%

2012 40,102 14.7%

AAGR 2002‐2012 11.5%


2017 40,100 0.0%

2022 40,100 0.0%

2032 40,100 0.0%

AAGR 2012‐2032 0.0%


Total Statewide Enplanements Asummaryofeachairport’shistoricandprojectedenplanementsareshowninTable4‐8.ThehistorictotalsdepictedinTable8representwhatisfoundintheFAATAF,whiletheprojectedtotalswerecalculatedbyapplyingtheTAF’sprojectedenplanementgrowthratetobaseyearenplanements.

AsshowninTable4‐9,totalstatewideenplanementsdecreasedfrom10.2millionin2002to9.7million2012,representinganaverageannualgrowthof‐0.5percent.Theyearsinwhichstatewideenplanementsdeclinedcorrespondtotheglobaleconomicdownturnof2008/2009,whichhadnegativeimpactsonenplanementlevelsatseveraloftheindividualairports.Otherindicatorsofstatewidetrendsarediscussedinthepreviouschapter.Forcomparison,totalU.S.enplanements

7 http://www.vindy.com/news/2013/jul/31/allegiant‐adding‐new‐destination‐from‐ai/ 8 http://www.vindy.com/news/2013/feb/02/frontier‐starts‐flights‐from‐vienna‐airp/



grewbyanaverageannualrateof1.27percentoverthesameperiod.AccordingtotheFAATAFandprojectionsbyCDMSmith,enplanementsareprojectedtoincreasefrom9.7millionin2012to14.8millionin2032.Thisgrowthinenplanementsrepresentsanoverallstatewideaverageannualgrowthrateof2.1percent.Althoughmoreconservative,thisrateisconsideredtobeinlinewithnationalprojectionsofdomesticenplanementactivity,whichprojectenplanementstoincreaseatanaverageannualrateof2.4percentfrom2012to2032(accordingtoFAAAerospaceForecasts,FiscalYears2013‐2033).

Table4‐8ComparisonofHistoricandProjectedEnplanementsbyAirport

Historic Akron‐ Canton

Cleveland‐ Hopkins Int’l

Port Columbus

Int’l Rickenbacker

Int’l Dayton Int’l

Toledo Express

Youngstown‐ Warren Rgnl

2002 414,643 5,223,503 3,204,770 756 1,076,388 325,452 13,466

2003 536,589 4,996,766 3,149,103 5,485 1,269,718 290,385 7,196

2004 652,477 5,268,160 3,021,583 92,738 1,444,236 313,781 20,647

2005 706,664 5,553,860 3,263,061 42,163 1,253,502 258,391 8,175

2006 720,827 5,436,824 3,274,398 6,491 1,275,069 200,277 9,613

2007 683,007 5,537,153 3,725,782 3,587 1,392,789 170,027 17,680

2008 709,338 5,485,860 3,493,739 5,318 1,440,170 139,793 18,109

2009 717,212 4,731,869 3,102,363 5,494 1,302,298 97,731 16,418

2010 757,792 4,604,934 3,125,287 4,692 1,221,086 87,199 24,279

2011 788,158 4,465,468 3,144,548 6,129 1,259,396 78,423 34,957

2012 910,313 4,325,353 3,095,360 6,513 1,288,541 78,755 40,102

AAGR 2002‐2012 8.2% ‐1.9% ‐0.3% 24.0% 1.8% ‐13.2% 11.5%

Projected Akron‐ Canton


Port Columbus



Toledo Express


2017 1,127,250 4,871,320 3,387,810 6,780 1,400,520 82,530 40,100

2022 1,326,620 5,366,670 3,803,330 7,060 1,446,320 86,640 40,100

2032 1,837,470 6,513,620 4,793,550 7,650 1,542,610 96,030 40,100

AAGR 2012‐2032 3.6% 2.1% 2.2% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 0.0%




Table4‐9TotalStatewideEnplanementsbyYear

Historic Enplanements % Growth

2002 10,258,978

2003 10,255,242 0.0%

2004 10,813,622 5.4%

2005 11,085,816 2.5%

2006 10,923,499 ‐1.5%

2007 11,530,025 5.6%

2008 11,292,327 ‐2.1%

2009 9,973,385 ‐11.7%

2010 9,825,269 ‐1.5%

2011 9,777,079 ‐0.5%

2012 9,744,937 ‐0.3%

AAGR 2002‐2012 ‐0.5%


2017 10,916,310 12.0%

2022 12,076,740 10.6%

2032 14,831,030 22.8%

AAGR 2012‐2032 2.1%


Annual Airline Operations Commercialairlineoperationsrefertothosetakeoffsandlandingsperformedbyscheduledairlines,includingmajor,national,regional,andcommutercarriers.CommercialserviceairportsinOhioareservedbyavarietyofcarriers,withthreeoutofthesevenbeingservedstrictlybysmallercommuterairlines.

Thereisadirectcorrelationbetweenenplanementsandcommercialoperations,butthecorrelationisnotthesameforairportsservedbyamixofmajorandcommuterairlines.Majorcarrierstypicallyoperateequipmentwithseatingcapacitiesbetween110and300seats.CommuteroperatorsinOhiooperateaircraftwithseatingcapacitiesbetween30and70seats.Withthesevaryingseatingcapacities,operationalneedsaredeterminedbyenplanementsandaverageloadfactors.Additionally,theairlineindustry’sshiftawayfromsmaller,less‐profitableregionaljetstolargeraircraftisexpectedtoresultindecliningoperationsevenwithpotentialgainsinenplanements.

Statewideairlineaircraftoperationshavedecreasedhistoricallyfrom529,883operationsin2002to365,232operationsin2012,representinganaverageannualgrowthrateof‐3.65percentduringthetimeperiod.Akron‐Canton,RickenbackerInternational,andYoungstown‐WarrenRegionalweretheonlyairportsthatexperiencedgainsinairlineoperations.However,theseairportsrepresentthreeofthefoursmallestairportsbyannualairlineoperationsandthesegainswerenotlargeenoughtomakeupforthelossesexperiencedbythreemoreactiveairports.Table4‐10identifiesthesevencommercialserviceairportsinOhioandtheirhistoricandprojectedannualcommercialserviceairlineoperationsasfoundintheFAATAF.



Table4‐10ComparisonofHistoricandProjectedAirlineOperationsbyAirport

Historic Akron‐ Canton


Port Columbus



Toledo Express


2002 2,755 241,346 184,266 736 83,033 17,361 386

2003 7,146 233,011 172,067 736 84,422 12,268 286

2004 11,758 249,411 162,073 1,750 86,699 13,764 567

2005 15,006 247,348 157,373 4,921 85,890 13,215 51

2006 21,651 237,664 131,244 4,160 70,577 10,144 33

2007 21,597 233,449 124,251 4,482 60,051 9,724 39

2008 23,084 233,070 125,789 4,740 59,620 10,080 437

2009 21,981 195,093 113,506 4,785 53,057 9,143 346

2010 22,363 184,710 109,570 4,830 49,890 9,629 554

2011 12,464 181,601 111,766 4,862 49,402 9,032 615

2012 15,776 174,568 107,892` 17,848 46,674 1,769 705

AAGR 2002‐2012 19.07% ‐3.19% ‐5.21% 37.55% ‐5.60% ‐20.42% 6.21%

Projected Akron‐ Canton


Port Columbus



Toledo Express


2017 20,319 187,760 112,572 19,766 47,526 1,769 705

2022 26,852 200,821 120,571 21,900 45,564 1,769 705

2032 37,558 229,695 141,180 26,366 45,018 1,769 705

AAGR 2012‐2032 4.43% 1.38% 1.35% 1.97% ‐0.18% 0.00% 0.00%


ProjectionsofairlineoperationsatOhio’scommercialserviceairportswerealsotakendirectlyfromtheFAATAF.FAATAFdataindicatethatstatewideaircarrieroperationsfrom2012to2032areanticipatedtogrowatanaverageannualrateof1.4percent.Akron‐Cantonisprojectedtogrowthefastest,withanaverageannualgrowthrateof4.43percent.RickenbackerInternational,Cleveland‐HopkinsInternational,andPortColumbusInternationalareprojectedtohavethesecond,third,andfourthfastestgrowthrates.GrowthatToledoExpressandYoungstown‐WarrenRegionalareprojectedtobeflat,whileJamesM.CoxDaytonInternationalisprojectedtocontinuelosingairlineoperations,albeitataslowerratethanitexperiencedhistorically.Statewide,theaverageannualgrowthrateisprojectedtobe1.4percent,whichtakesOhio’scommercialserviceairlineoperationsfrom365,000in2012to482,000in2032.Table4‐11identifiesstatewidetotalsofhistoricandprojectedannualcommercialairlineoperations.



Table4‐11HistoricandProjectedAirlineOperations

StatewideTotalsbyYearHistoric Operations % Growth

2002 529,883

2003 509,936 ‐3.76%

2004 526,022 3.15%

2005 523,804 ‐0.42%

2006 475,473 ‐9.23%

2007 453,593 ‐4.60%

2008 456,820 0.71%

2009 397,911 ‐12.90%

2010 381,546 ‐4.11%

2011 369,742 ‐3.09%

2012 365,232 ‐1.22%

AAGR 2002‐2012 ‐3.65%

Projected Operations % Growth

2017 390,417 6.90%

2022 418,182 7.11%

2032 482,291 15.33%

AAGR 2012‐2032 1.40%


Annual Air Cargo Tonnage AsdiscussedintheprecedingTrendsChapter,aircargohasplayedamajorroleinOhio’saviationlegacy.However,duetoamultitudeofmarketforcesthestatehasexperiencedanoveralldeclineinaircargotonnageandhasseentheclosureofthreemajoraircargohubs(theUPS‐ownedEmery/MenloWorldwidehubatDaytonInternational,DHL’sWilmingtonAirParkhub,andBAXGlobal’shubatToledoExpress).Themajorityofscheduledaircargoistransportedprimarilybythreeairlinetypes:all‐cargocarriers,integratedexpresscarriers,andpassengerairlines.

Cleveland‐HopkinsInternationalandDaytonInternationaleachaccommodateaircargothroughbothintegratedexpresscarriersandthroughpassengerairlinescarryingfreightasbellycargo.FedExExpress,MountainAirCargo(acontractedfeederairlineforFedEx),andUPSeachservetheaircargoneedsoftheClevelandmarket.ToledoExpressaccommodatesscheduledaircargothroughonepassengerairlineandoneintegratedexpresscarrier(DHL/DHLcontractors).Rickenbackerisuniqueinthatitservesasanintermodalcargoportforfreighttransportedbyair,road,andrail;however,railfreightandairfreightarerarelyinterlined.AircargooperatorsthatserveRickenbackerincludeFedExExpress,MountainAirCargo,UPS,Cargolux,AirNetExpress,KalittaAir,andEvergreenInternationalAirlines.AllscheduledaircargoatbothAkron‐CantonandPortColumbusInternationalcomesintheformofbellycargoonpassengeraircraft.Typicallyanyairportwithscheduledpassengerservicewillalsohavesomelevelofbellycargo;however,duetothenatureofairlineservicesupportedbyYoungstown‐WarrenRegional(vacationairlines/casinocharters)thereisnomeasurableaircargotonnage.

InordertoprojectfutureaircargotonnagesinOhio’sairports,currentaircargocarrierswereexaminedtodeterminethetypeofaircargoactivityaccommodatedbyeachairport.ThetypeofactivityaccommodatedcorrespondstothespecificgrowthratesprojectedforaircargofoundintheFAAAerospaceForecast,FiscalYears2013‐2033.TheFAAprojectsaircargoactivityinRevenue‐Ton‐Miles,orRTMS,forall‐cargocarriers,passengercarriers,aswellasatotalcombiningboth.AccordingtotheFAA,growthindomesticpassengerairlinebellycargoisprojectedtobeflatthrough2033,whileslightgrowthisanticipatedinRTMSfordomesticall‐cargocarriers,which



includesbothall‐cargocarriersandintegratedexpresscarriers.Whencombined,theaveragegrowthrateforaircargoisestimatedat0.7percentannually.Thisgrowthratewasthenappliedtoeachairport’sbaseyeartonnageandextendedthroughtheendoftheplanningperiod.

TheprojectedtonnagesforeachairportarepresentedinTable4‐12below.Itisimportanttonotethatonlyairportswithexistingscheduledaircargotonnageswereprojected;airportswithoutexistingscheduledaircargoservicewereassumedtoremainatzero.

Table4‐12ProjectedAirCargoTonnages

Airport Name

Base Year Tonnage Projected Tonnage

2012 2017 2022 2032

Akron‐Canton 67 69 72 77

Cleveland‐Hopkins Int'l 84,910 87,924 91,044 97,622

Port Columbus Int’l 4,826 4,998 5,175 5,549

Rickenbacker Int’l 79,696 82,525 85,454 91,628

James M. Cox Dayton Int'l 8,597 8,902 9,218 9,884

Toledo Express* 10,000 10,355 10,722 11,497

Wilmington Air Park 0 0 0 0

Youngstown‐Warren Rgnl 0 0 0 0

Ohio Total 188,097 194,773 201,686 216,257

Source: ACI NA, Airport Websites, FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2013‐2033, CDM Smith *Estimate for Toledo Express based on air cargo service levels post‐BAX Global hub closure in 2011

General Aviation Activity Projections Generalaviationactivityrepresentsallfacetsofcivilaviation,exceptscheduledactivitybycertificatedaircarriers.ProjectionsofbasedaircraftandgeneralaviationoperationswerepreparedforthesystemairportsintheStateofOhio.Thesetermsaredefinedasfollows:

BasedAircraft–Thetotalnumberofgeneralaviationaircraftthatarestoredineitherhangarsortiedownsatanairport

Operations–Anoperationisdefinedasalandingoratakeoff;bothalandingandatakeoff,suchasatouch‐and‐go,accountsfortwooperations.

ItisimportanttonotethatgeneralaviationactivityoccursatalloftheairportsinOhio’ssystem.Therefore,projectionsofthesetwoactivityindicatorswerepreparedforall104Ohiosystemairports.

Based Aircraft Projections Projectionsofgeneralaviationbasedaircraftareusedindevelopinggeneralaviationoperationsprojectionsinlateranalyses.Twoprojectionmethodologieswereusedtoprojectbasedaircraftforeachsystemairport:

Thefirstmethodologywasabottom‐upapproach.Thisapproachusedtheprojectedpopulationtrendexperiencedbyeachairport’sassociatedcountytoforecastfuturebasedaircraft.

Thesecondmethodologyusedtoprojectbasedaircraftwasatop‐downmethodology.Thismethodologyprojectedbasedaircraftbyapplyingtheprojectednationalaverageannualgrowthrateofactiveaircraft(asfoundintheFAAAerospaceForecast,FiscalYears2013‐2033)toeachairport’scurrentbasedaircraftcountthrough2032.Eachairport'sshareofstatewide‐basedaircraftremainedconstanttoprojectbasedaircraftonanindividualairportbasis.



Eachofthesemethodologies,theirresultantprojections,andthepreferredbasedaircraftprojectionsarediscussedinthefollowingsections.

Bottom‐Up Methodology Inthebottom‐upgrowthratemethodology,theprojectedpopulationgrowthfrom2012to2032ateachsystemairport’sassociatedcountywasfirstcalculatedusingavailablecensusdata.Duetothewiderangesofprojectedchange,counties,andtheirassociatedairports,werecategorizedintofivegrowthratecategoriestoprojectfuturebasedaircraft.TheFAAAerospaceForecasts,FiscalYears2013‐2033isthebestavailablesourceforbenchmarkingfuturegrowthofbasedaircraftatthenationallevel.TheFAAanticipatesthatnationallytheactivegeneralaviationaircraftfleetwillincreaseatanaverageannualrateof0.5percentthrough2032.

ToprojectbasedaircraftforeachoftheairportsintheOhiosystem,increasesordecreasesfromthis0.5percentnationalaverageannualgrowthratewereused.Theproportionalincreaseordecreasewasdeterminedbytheprojectedpopulationgrowthofeachairport’sassociatedcounty.Airportsincountiesprojectedtoexperienceno(ornegative)populationgrowthareexpectedtoexperiencenogrowthinbasedaircraft.Forairportsincountiesprojectedtohaveuptoa0.25annualrateofpopulationgrowthduringthe2012to2032timeframe,basedaircraftwereexpectedtoincreaseatonehalfthenationalaverage,resultinginanadjustedannualgrowthrateof0.25percent.Forthoseairportsincountiesprojectedtoexperiencebetween0.25percentand0.5percentpopulationAAGR,thenationalgrowthrateof0.5percentwasapplied.Forthoseairportsincountiesprojectedtoexperiencebetween0.5percentand2.0percentpopulationAAGRduringthistimeframe,anadjustedannualgrowthrateof0.75percentwasused(1.5timesthenationalaverage).Airportsincountiesprojectedtohavegrowthgreaterthan2.0percentpopulationgrowthwereassignedagrowthratethreetimesthenationalaverage.Thistypeofprojectionisreferredtoasabottom‐upmethodologyasitlooksatactivityfromtheairport‐specificlevelandthentotalstheindividualprojectionstodevelopastatewidetotal.ThegrowthratesareshowinTable4‐13.

Table4‐13GeneralAviationBasedAircraftProjection

AdjustedActiveAircraftGrowthRateBasedonProjectedPopulationGrowthRate:Bottom‐UpMethodology

Airports in Range

Population Growth

Population Growth Rate Range Active Aircraft MultiplierLow High

23 Negative or None 0.00% 0.00% 0.0

21 Low 0.00% 0.25% 0.5

18 Med‐Low 0.25% 0.50% 1.0

39 Med‐High 0.50% 2.00% 1.5

3 High 2.00% 5.00% 3.0

Notes: Airports in Negative or None category Seneca County Cincinnati West Jefferson County Airpark Morgan County Middle Bass Island Moraine Air Park Put In Bay Cincinnati Municipal‐Lunken Field

North Bass Island Dayton‐Wright Brothers

Monroe County Carl R. Keller Field

Barnesville‐Bradfield Greater Portsmouth Regional

Harrison County Sandusky County Regional

Lima Allen County Toledo Express James M. Cox Dayton Int'l Van Wert County Fostoria Metropolitan Youngstown‐Warren Regional



Table4‐13GeneralAviationBasedAircraftProjection

AdjustedActiveAircraftGrowthRateBasedonProjectedPopulationGrowthRate:Bottom‐UpMethodology

Greene County‐Lewis A. Jackson Regional Airports in Low category Williams County Findlay Port Bucyrus‐Crawford County Lawrence County Airpark

Kent State University Richard Downing Wyandot County Hardin County Bluffton Willoughby Lost Nation Municipal

Akron Fulton International Lorain County Regional

Burke Lakefront Marion Municipal

Akron‐Canton Portage County Cuyahoga County Ohio University‐Snyder Field

Cleveland‐Hopkins Int'l Darke County Defiance Memorial

Airports in Med‐Low category Columbiana County Sidney Municipal Norwalk‐Huron County Piqua‐Hartzell Field

Henry County Fayette County Kelleys Island Municipal James A. Rhodes Willard Mansfield Lahm Regional

Cambridge Municipal Putnam County Pickaway County Memorial Harry Clever Field

Galion Municipal Springfield‐Beckley Municipal

Northeast Ohio Regional Madison County Airports in Med‐High category Holmes County Highland County Wood County Noble County Medina Municipal Clinton Field Vinton County Clermont County Wadsworth Municipal Grimes Field Ashland County Perry County Knox County Wilmington Air Park

Morrow County Rickenbacker International

Deshler Municipal Landing Strip Fairfield County Geauga County Middletown Regional/Hook Field

Alexander Salamon Ohio State University

Neil Armstrong Miami University Wayne County Ross County Port Columbus International Toledo Executive Lakefield Carroll County‐Tolson

Bellefontaine Regional Bolton Field Pike County Fulton County Gallia‐Meigs Regional Newark‐Heath Brown County Zanesville Municipal

Butler County Regional Airports in High category Delaware Municipal‐Jim Moore Field Union County Warren County/John Lane Field

Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast 2013‐2033, U.S. Census, CDM Smith



AsshowninTable4‐14,usingthebottom‐upmethodology,statewidebasedaircraftareprojectedtoincreasefrom4,687in2012to5,182in2032,astatewideaverageannualgrowthrateof0.503percentoverthe20‐yearperiod.ThisrateismarginallyhigherthantheFAA’sprojectedaverageannualrateof0.5percentoverthesametimeperiod.Thisreflectsconsistencywithnationalprojectionaverageswhilecorrelatinggrowthtolocaldemographictrends.

Top‐Down Methodology Table4‐15presentsprojectedstatewidebasedgeneralaviationaircraftforOhiousingthetop‐downmethodology.Aspreviouslydiscussed,theFAAAerospaceForecastprojectsthatnationalbasedaircraftareprojectedtoincreasebyanaverageannualgrowthrateof0.5percent.Byapplyingthisgrowthratetoeachairport'scurrentbasedaircrafttotalthroughtheendoftheplanningperiod,individualairportprojectionswereproduced(seeTable4‐15).



Table4‐14GeneralAviationBasedAircraftProjection:Bottom‐UpMethodology

Associated City Airport Name Population AAGR

2012‐2032 Active Aircraft

AAGR 2012‐2032 Adjusted CAGR 2012 2017 2022 2032

Akron Akron Fulton International 0.24% 0.50% 0.25% 117 118 120 123

Akron Akron‐Canton 0.24% 0.50% 0.25% 137 139 140 144

Ashland Ashland County 0.79% 0.50% 0.75% 41 43 44 48

Ashtabula Northeast Ohio Regional 0.32% 0.50% 0.50% 27 28 28 30

Athens/Albany Ohio University‐Snyder Field 0.17% 0.50% 0.25% 45 46 46 47

Barnesville Barnesville‐Bradfield ‐0.36% 0.50% 0.00% 9 9 9 9

Batavia Clermont County 1.16% 0.50% 0.75% 120 125 129 139

Bellefontaine Bellefontaine Regional 0.80% 0.50% 0.75% 25 26 27 29

Bluffton Bluffton 0.24% 0.50% 0.25% 24 24 25 25

Bowling Green Wood County 0.56% 0.50% 0.75% 43 45 46 50

Bryan Williams County 0.14% 0.50% 0.25% 26 26 27 27

Bucyrus Port Bucyrus‐Crawford County 0.07% 0.50% 0.25% 31 31 32 33

Cadiz Harrison County ‐0.09% 0.50% 0.00% 28 28 28 28

Caldwell Noble County 0.75% 0.50% 0.75% 8 8 9 9

Cambridge Cambridge Municipal 0.47% 0.50% 0.50% 20 21 21 22

Carrollton Carroll County‐Tolson 1.25% 0.50% 0.75% 30 31 32 35

Celina Lakefield 0.65% 0.50% 0.75% 13 13 14 15

Chesapeake/ Huntington, WV Lawrence County Airpark 0.17% 0.50% 0.25% 40 40 41 42

Chillicothe Ross County 0.68% 0.50% 0.75% 39 40 42 45

Cincinnati Cincinnati Municipal‐Lunken Field ‐0.52% 0.50% 0.00% 193 193 193 193

Circleville Pickaway County Memorial 0.34% 0.50% 0.50% 33 34 35 36

Cleveland Burke Lakefront 0.04% 0.50% 0.25% 35 35 36 37

Cleveland Cuyahoga County 0.04% 0.50% 0.25% 133 135 136 140

Cleveland Cleveland‐Hopkins Int'l 0.04% 0.50% 0.25% 29 29 30 30

Columbus Port Columbus International 0.58% 0.50% 0.75% 83 86 89 96

Columbus Rickenbacker International 0.58% 0.50% 0.75% 9 9 10 10

Columbus Ohio State University 0.58% 0.50% 0.75% 167 173 180 194

Columbus Bolton Field 0.58% 0.50% 0.75% 86 89 93 100

Coshocton Richard Downing 0.12% 0.50% 0.25% 27 27 28 28

Dayton James M. Cox Dayton Int'l ‐0.11% 0.50% 0.00% 31 31 31 31

Dayton Greene County‐Lewis A. Jackson Regional ‐0.16% 0.50% 0.00% 87 87 87 87

Dayton Moraine Air Park ‐0.11% 0.50% 0.00% 112 112 112 112

Dayton Dayton‐Wright Brothers ‐0.11% 0.50% 0.00% 102 102 102 102







Defiance Defiance Memorial 0.21% 0.50% 0.25% 23 23 24 24

Delaware Delaware Municipal‐Jim Moore Field 2.16% 0.50% 1.50% 83 89 96 112

Deshler Deshler Municipal Landing Strip 0.56% 0.50% 0.75% 6 6 6 7

East Liverpool Columbiana County 0.28% 0.50% 0.50% 29 30 30 32

Findlay Findlay 0.24% 0.50% 0.25% 25 25 26 26

Fostoria Fostoria Metropolitan ‐0.53% 0.50% 0.00% 22 22 22 22

Fremont Sandusky County Regional ‐0.39% 0.50% 0.00% 11 11 11 11

Galion Galion Municipal 0.42% 0.50% 0.50% 33 34 35 36

Gallipolis Gallia‐Meigs Regional 0.57% 0.50% 0.75% 57 59 61 66

Georgetown Brown County 1.36% 0.50% 0.75% 19 20 20 22

Hamilton Butler County Regional 0.96% 0.50% 0.75% 202 210 218 234

Harrison Cincinnati West ‐0.52% 0.50% 0.00% 32 32 32 32

Hillsboro Highland County 0.95% 0.50% 0.75% 21 22 23 24

Jackson James A. Rhodes 0.44% 0.50% 0.50% 23 24 24 25

Kelleys Island Kelleys Island Municipal 0.47% 0.50% 0.50% 5 5 5 6

Kent Kent State University 0.24% 0.50% 0.25% 41 42 42 43

Kenton Hardin County 0.21% 0.50% 0.25% 17 17 17 18

Lancaster Fairfield County 1.74% 0.50% 0.75% 87 90 94 101

Lebanon Warren County/John Lane Field 2.49% 0.50% 1.50% 119 128 138 160

Lima Lima Allen County ‐0.02% 0.50% 0.00% 40 40 40 40

London Madison County 0.43% 0.50% 0.50% 51 52 54 56

Lorain/Elyria Lorain County Regional 0.20% 0.50% 0.25% 83 84 85 87

Mansfield Mansfield Lahm Regional 0.42% 0.50% 0.50% 80 82 84 88

Marion Marion Municipal 0.16% 0.50% 0.25% 54 55 55 57

Marysville Union County 2.70% 0.50% 1.50% 71 76 82 95

McArthur Vinton County 0.81% 0.50% 0.75% 14 15 15 16

McConnelsville Morgan County ‐0.11% 0.50% 0.00% 8 8 8 8

Medina Medina Municipal 0.97% 0.50% 0.75% 83 86 89 96

Middle Bass Middle Bass Island ‐0.39% 0.50% 0.00% 1 1 1 1

Middlefield Geauga County 0.85% 0.50% 0.75% 42 44 45 49

Middletown Middletown Regional/Hook Field 0.96% 0.50% 0.75% 90 93 97 104

Millersburg Holmes County 0.80% 0.50% 0.75% 24 25 26 28

Mount Gilead Morrow County 0.56% 0.50% 0.75% 21 22 23 24







Mount Vernon Knox County 0.79% 0.50% 0.75% 96 100 103 111

Napoleon Henry County 0.40% 0.50% 0.50% 21 22 22 23

New Lexington Perry County 0.86% 0.50% 0.75% 9 9 10 10

New Philadelphia Harry Clever Field 0.34% 0.50% 0.50% 41 42 43 45

Newark Newark‐Heath 0.95% 0.50% 0.75% 68 71 73 79

North Bass Island North Bass Island ‐0.39% 0.50% 0.00% 0 0 0 0

Norwalk Norwalk‐Huron County 0.43% 0.50% 0.50% 25 26 26 28

Ottawa Putnam County 0.29% 0.50% 0.50% 22 23 23 24

Oxford Miami University 0.96% 0.50% 0.75% 8 8 9 9

Piqua Piqua‐Hartzell Field 0.26% 0.50% 0.50% 33 34 35 36

Port Clinton Carl R. Keller Field ‐0.39% 0.50% 0.00% 51 51 51 51

Portsmouth Greater Portsmouth Regional ‐0.01% 0.50% 0.00% 28 28 28 28

Put In Bay Put In Bay ‐0.39% 0.50% 0.00% 3 3 3 3

Ravenna Portage County 0.01% 0.50% 0.25% 58 59 59 61

Sidney Sidney Municipal 0.38% 0.50% 0.50% 41 42 43 45

Springfield Springfield‐Beckley Municipal 0.27% 0.50% 0.50% 39 40 41 43

Steubenville Jefferson County Airpark ‐1.12% 0.50% 0.00% 35 35 35 35

Tiffin Seneca County ‐0.53% 0.50% 0.00% 32 32 32 32

Toledo Toledo Executive 0.56% 0.50% 0.75% 51 53 55 59

Toledo Toledo Express ‐0.26% 0.50% 0.00% 48 48 48 48

Upper Sandusky Wyandot County 0.15% 0.50% 0.25% 12 12 12 13

Urbana Grimes Field 0.96% 0.50% 0.75% 32 33 34 37

Van Wert Van Wert County ‐0.11% 0.50% 0.00% 35 35 35 35

Versailles Darke County 0.02% 0.50% 0.25% 28 28 29 29

Wadsworth Wadsworth Municipal 0.97% 0.50% 0.75% 80 83 86 93

Wapakoneta Neil Armstrong 0.71% 0.50% 0.75% 30 31 32 35

Washington Court House Fayette County 0.27% 0.50% 0.50% 16 16 17 18

Wauseon Fulton County 0.80% 0.50% 0.75% 35 36 38 41

Waverly Pike County 0.57% 0.50% 0.75% 8 8 9 9

West Union Alexander Salamon 0.93% 0.50% 0.75% 12 12 13 14

Willard Willard 0.43% 0.50% 0.50% 1 1 1 1

Willoughby Willoughby Lost Nation Municipal 0.07% 0.50% 0.25% 75 76 77 79

Wilmington Clinton Field 1.39% 0.50% 0.75% 31 32 33 36







Wilmington Wilmington Air Park 1.39% 0.50% 0.75% 0 0 0 0

Woodsfield Monroe County ‐0.42% 0.50% 0.00% 14 14 14 14

Wooster Wayne County 0.97% 0.50% 0.75% 41 43 44 48

Youngstown/Warren Youngstown‐Warren Regional ‐0.17% 0.50% 0.00% 43 43 43 43

Zanesville Zanesville Municipal 0.53% 0.50% 0.75% 18 19 19 21

Ohio Total 0.35% 0.50% 0.50% 4,687 4,803 4,925 5,182




Table4‐15GeneralAviationBasedAircraftProjection:Top‐DownMethodology

Associated City Airport Name Active Aircraft

AAGR 2012‐2032 2012 2017 2022 2032

Akron Akron Fulton International 0.50% 117 120 123 129

Akron Akron‐Canton 0.50% 137 140 144 151

Ashland Ashland County 0.50% 41 42 43 45

Ashtabula Northeast Ohio Regional 0.50% 27 28 28 30

Athens/Albany Ohio University‐Snyder Field 0.50% 45 46 47 50

Barnesville Barnesville‐Bradfield 0.50% 9 9 9 10

Batavia Clermont County 0.50% 120 123 126 133

Bellefontaine Bellefontaine Regional 0.50% 25 26 26 28

Bluffton Bluffton 0.50% 24 25 25 27

Bowling Green Wood County 0.50% 43 44 45 47

Bryan Williams County 0.50% 26 27 27 29

Bucyrus Port Bucyrus‐Crawford County 0.50% 31 32 33 34

Cadiz Harrison County 0.50% 28 29 29 31

Caldwell Noble County 0.50% 8 8 8 9

Cambridge Cambridge Municipal 0.50% 20 21 21 22

Carrollton Carroll County‐Tolson 0.50% 30 31 32 33

Celina Lakefield 0.50% 13 13 14 14

Chesapeake/ Huntington, WV Lawrence County Airpark 0.50% 40 41 42 44

Chillicothe Ross County 0.50% 39 40 41 43

Cincinnati Cincinnati Municipal‐Lunken Field 0.50% 193 198 203 213

Circleville Pickaway County Memorial 0.50% 33 34 35 36

Cleveland Burke Lakefront 0.50% 35 36 37 39

Cleveland Cuyahoga County 0.50% 133 136 140 147

Cleveland Cleveland‐Hopkins Int'l 0.50% 29 30 30 32

Columbus Port Columbus International 0.50% 83 85 87 92

Columbus Rickenbacker International 0.50% 9 9 9 10

Columbus Ohio State University 0.50% 167 171 175 184

Columbus Bolton Field 0.50% 86 88 90 95

Coshocton Richard Downing 0.50% 27 28 28 30

Dayton James M. Cox Dayton Int'l 0.50% 31 32 33 34

Dayton Greene County‐Lewis A. Jackson Regional 0.50% 87 89 91 96

Dayton Moraine Air Park 0.50% 112 115 118 124

Dayton Dayton‐Wright Brothers 0.50% 102 105 107 113

Defiance Defiance Memorial 0.50% 23 24 24 25

Delaware Delaware Municipal‐Jim Moore Field 0.50% 83 85 87 92

Deshler Deshler Municipal Landing Strip 0.50% 6 6 6 7

East Liverpool Columbiana County 0.50% 29 30 30 32

Findlay Findlay 0.50% 25 26 26 28

Fostoria Fostoria Metropolitan 0.50% 22 23 23 24

Fremont Sandusky County Regional 0.50% 11 11 12 12

Galion Galion Municipal 0.50% 33 34 35 36

Gallipolis Gallia‐Meigs Regional 0.50% 57 58 60 63

Georgetown Brown County 0.50% 19 19 20 21

Hamilton Butler County Regional 0.50% 202 207 212 223

Harrison Cincinnati West 0.50% 32 33 34 35

Hillsboro Highland County 0.50% 21 22 22 23

Jackson James A. Rhodes 0.50% 23 24 24 25

Kelleys Island Kelleys Island Municipal 0.50% 5 5 5 6

Kent Kent State University 0.50% 41 42 43 45





AAGR 2012‐2032 2012 2017 2022 2032

Kenton Hardin County 0.50% 17 17 18 19

Lancaster Fairfield County 0.50% 87 89 91 96

Lebanon Warren County/John Lane Field 0.50% 119 122 125 131

Lima Lima Allen County 0.50% 40 41 42 44

London Madison County 0.50% 51 52 54 56

Lorain/Elyria Lorain County Regional 0.50% 83 85 87 92

Mansfield Mansfield Lahm Regional 0.50% 80 82 84 88

Marion Marion Municipal 0.50% 54 55 57 60

Marysville Union County 0.50% 71 73 75 78

McArthur Vinton County 0.50% 14 14 15 15

McConnelsville Morgan County 0.50% 8 8 8 9

Medina Medina Municipal 0.50% 83 85 87 92

Middle Bass Middle Bass Island 0.50% 1 1 1 1

Middlefield Geauga County 0.50% 42 43 44 46

Middletown Middletown Regional/Hook Field 0.50% 90 92 95 99

Millersburg Holmes County 0.50% 24 25 25 27

Mount Gilead Morrow County 0.50% 21 22 22 23

Mount Vernon Knox County 0.50% 96 98 101 106

Napoleon Henry County 0.50% 21 22 22 23

New Lexington Perry County 0.50% 9 9 9 10

New Philadelphia Harry Clever Field 0.50% 41 42 43 45

Newark Newark‐Heath 0.50% 68 70 71 75

North Bass Island North Bass Island 0.50% 0 0 0 0

Norwalk Norwalk‐Huron County 0.50% 25 26 26 28

Ottawa Putnam County 0.50% 22 23 23 24

Oxford Miami University 0.50% 8 8 8 9

Piqua Piqua‐Hartzell Field 0.50% 33 34 35 36

Port Clinton Carl R. Keller Field 0.50% 51 52 54 56

Portsmouth Greater Portsmouth Regional 0.50% 28 29 29 31

Put In Bay Put In Bay 0.50% 3 3 3 3

Ravenna Portage County 0.50% 58 59 61 64

Sidney Sidney Municipal 0.50% 41 42 43 45

Springfield Springfield‐Beckley Municipal 0.50% 39 40 41 43

Steubenville Jefferson County Airpark 0.50% 35 36 37 39

Tiffin Seneca County 0.50% 32 33 34 35

Toledo Toledo Executive 0.50% 51 52 54 56

Toledo Toledo Express 0.50% 48 49 50 53

Upper Sandusky Wyandot County 0.50% 12 12 13 13

Urbana Grimes Field 0.50% 32 33 34 35

Van Wert Van Wert County 0.50% 35 36 37 39

Versailles Darke County 0.50% 28 29 29 31

Wadsworth Wadsworth Municipal 0.50% 80 82 84 88

Wapakoneta Neil Armstrong 0.50% 30 31 32 33

Washington Court House Fayette County 0.50% 16 16 17 18

Wauseon Fulton County 0.50% 35 36 37 39

Waverly Pike County 0.50% 8 8 8 9

West Union Alexander Salamon 0.50% 12 12 13 13

Willard Willard 0.50% 1 1 1 1

Willoughby Willoughby Lost Nation Municipal 0.50% 75 77 79 83





AAGR 2012‐2032 2012 2017 2022 2032

Wilmington Clinton Field 0.50% 31 32 33 34

Wilmington Wilmington Air Park 0.50% 0 0 0 0

Woodsfield Monroe County 0.50% 14 14 15 15

Wooster Wayne County 0.50% 41 42 43 45

Youngstown/Warren Youngstown‐Warren Regional 0.50% 43 44 45 47

Zanesville Zanesville Municipal 0.50% 18 18 19 20

Ohio Total 0.50% 4,687 4,806 4,922 5,171

Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast 2013‐2033, CDM Smith

Preferred Based Aircraft Methodology TheresultsfromthetwobasedaircraftprojectionmethodologiesdevelopedinthisforecastarecomparedinTable4‐16.In2012,theOhioairportsexaminedaspartofthisanalysiswerehometo4,687basedaircraft.Thebottom‐upmethodologyproduceda2032statewideprojectionof5,182basedaircraft,anaverageannualgrowthrateof0.503percent.Thetop‐downmethodologyproduceda2032statewideprojectionof5,171basedaircraft,anaverageannualgrowthrateof0.50percent.Aftercomparingtheresultsandtheaverageannualgrowthratesofeachmethodology(Table4‐16),thebottom‐upgrowthratemethodologywaschosenasthepreferredmethodology.Thisrateisconsistentwithprojectedgrowthinnationalactiveaircraftwhilealsoadjustingforprojectedlocaldemographictrends.

Table4‐16GeneralAviationBasedAircraftProjections

ComparisonofMethodologies

Methodology AAGR 2012‐

2032 2012 2017 2022 2032

Bottom‐Up 0.503% 4,687 4,803 4,925 5,182

Top‐Down 0.50% 4,687 4,806 4,922 5,171


Based Aircraft Fleet Mix Anairport’sfleetmixisoneindicationofitsoperationalroleandfacilityneeds.Exhibit4‐1showsthe2012generalaviationfleetmixinOhio.Single‐engineaircraftaccountforthemajorityofallbasedaircraft,80percentofthestatewidetotal.Multi‐engineaircraftfollowwith10percent.Jetsandhelicoptersaccountforsevenandtwopercent,respectively.Othertypesofaircraft,includingultralight/light‐sportaircraft,gliders,blimps/dirigibles,andexperimentalaircraft,compriseonepercentofthestatetotal.



Exhibit4‐1CurrentBasedAircraftFleetMix–2012

Source: Airport Inventory & Data Survey 2012, CDM Smith

Astatewideforecastofthebasedaircraftfleetmixwasconductedbasedontotalstatewidebasedaircraftinthepreferredforecast,aswellasgrowthratesprovidedintheFAAAerospaceForecasts,FiscalYears2013‐2033.Forthisforecast,itwasassumedthatdifferenttypesofaircraftwouldgrowatdifferentrates.TheFAAprojectsthatjetaircraftwillgrowatamuchfasterratethansingle‐andmulti‐engineaircraft.Helicoptersarealsoprojectedtogrowatasubstantiallyhigherrate.Table4‐17presentstheprojectedbasedaircraftfleetmixinOhiothrough2032.Single‐engineaircraft,thelargestshareofthestatewidefleet,areprojectedtogrowatanannualrateof0.36percent,reaching4,040aircraftby2032.Multi‐engineaircraftareonlyprojectedtogrowatarateof0.1percentannually,toa2032totalof466aircraft.Jetsareprojectedtoexperiencethefastestgrowthattwopercentannually,whichresultsina2032totalof468aircraft.Helicoptersarealsoprojectedtogrowatarelativelyhighrateof1.7percentannually,resultingin140aircraftby2032.Allothertypesofaircraftareprojectedtogrowatthenationalaverageof1.13percentannually,whichtotals68aircraftby2032.

Table4‐17ProjectedBasedAircraftFleetMix

Base Year Projected

2012‐2032 AAGR Aircraft Type 2012 2017 2022 2032

Single‐Engine 3,761 3,825 3,892 4,040 0.36%

Multi‐Engine 457 457 460 466 0.10%

Jets 315 353 392 468 2.00%

Helicopters 100 110 120 140 1.70%

Others 54 58 61 68 1.16%

OHIO TOTAL 4,687 4,803 4,925 5,182 0.503%


Duetodifferentgrowthratesbeingappliedtodifferenttypesofaircraft,sharesofthestatewidetotalareexpectedtobedifferentin2032thantheywerein2012.Exhibit4‐2showsthepercentageoftotalOhiobasedaircraftforeachtypein2032.Single‐engineaircraftwhilestillthelargestportion;willdecreaseto78percentofthestatewidetotal.Multi‐engineaircraftwillalsodecreasetheirshare,fallingtoninepercentofthetotal.Jetaircraftareprojectedtojustexceedmulti‐engineaircraftbutalsoaccountingforninepercentofthetotalin2032.Thestatewideshareofhelicopters

3,761 (80%)

457 (10%)

315 (7%)

100 (2%)

54 (1%)

Single‐Engine

Multi‐Engine

Jets

Helicopters

Others



willincreasetoninepercentand,althoughincreasing,thestatewidepercentageforotheraircrafttypeswillremainataonepercentsharethroughouttheforecastperiod.

Exhibit4‐2ProjectedBasedAircraftFleetMix–2032


General Aviation Operations Projections Totalannualoperationaldemandcanconsistofseveraltypesofactivityincludingaircarrier,military,andgeneralaviation.Forthoseairportswithscheduledcommercialairservice,aircarrier(includingmajor/nationalandregional/commuteroperations)activitywasprojectedseparatelyinaprevioussection.Forthoseairportswithsignificantannualmilitaryoperations,themilitaryoperationsweresubtractedfromthetotaloperationalestimate,aswerecommercialoperations,toarriveatatotalannualgeneralaviationactivitylevelforeachsystemairport.

Onlythoseairportsthathaveairtrafficcontroltowershavedatabasedonrecordsofactualactivity.Airportswithoutatowerhaveprovidedestimatesofoperationalactivity.Therefore,annualoperationalestimatesweredevelopedthroughairport,FAA,andODOTdata.

Bottom‐Up: Operations per Based Aircraft Methodology Thebottom‐upmethodologyusingoperationsperbasedaircraft(OPBA)wasthefirstapproachusedtoprojectgeneralaviationoperationsforeachofthesystemairports.Usingthismethodology,eachairport’scurrent(baseyear2012)OPBAratioiscalculated.Theseratiosarethenappliedtothepreferredbasedaircraftprojectionthrough2032todeterminegeneralaviationoperations.Aspreviouslydiscussed,thepreferredbasedaircraftprojectionwasdeterminedtobethebottom‐upmethodology,whichtakesintoconsiderationprojectionsofbothcountypopulationandnationalaverageactiveaircraft.ThismethodologyassumesthattheOPBAratioremainsconstantthroughouttheplanningperiodandoperationsonlychangewhenthereisachangeinbasedaircraft.WhenappliedtoeachofOhio’ssystemairports,thismethodologyresultsinastatewidegeneralaviationoperationsincreasefrom2,723,518in2012to2,993,000in2032.Thisrepresentsanaveragegrowthrateof0.47percentannually.Table4‐18identifiestheprojectedgeneralaviationoperationsforeachofOhio’ssystemairportsusingthismethodology.

4,040(78%)

466(9%)

468(9%)

140(3%)

68 (1%)

Single‐Engine

Multi‐Engine

Jets

Helicopters

Others



Table4‐18GeneralAviationOperationsProjection:Bottom‐UpMethodology

Associated City Airport Name OPBA

(GA ops) AAGR

2012‐2032 2012 2017 2022 2032

Akron Akron Fulton International 255 0.25% 29,950 30,300 30,700 31,500

Akron Akron‐Canton 366 0.25% 69,137 70,000 70,900 72,700

Ashland Ashland County 256 0.75% 11,010 11,400 11,900 12,800

Ashtabula Northeast Ohio Regional 624 0.50% 16,886 17,300 17,700 18,600

Athens/Albany Ohio University‐Snyder Field 1,227 0.25% 55,400 56,100 56,800 58,200

Barnesville Barnesville‐Bradfield 1,122 0.00% 10,150 10,200 10,200 10,200

Batavia Clermont County 324 0.75% 38,650 40,100 41,600 44,800

Bellefontaine Bellefontaine Regional 666 0.75% 16,650 17,300 17,900 19,300

Bluffton Bluffton 2,998 0.25% 72,130 73,000 73,900 75,800

Bowling Green Wood County 634 0.75% 27,405 28,400 29,500 31,800

Bryan Williams County 462 0.25% 12,010 12,200 12,300 12,600

Bucyrus Port Bucyrus‐Crawford County 799 0.25% 24,871 25,200 25,500 26,100

Cadiz Harrison County 423 0.00% 11,900 11,900 11,900 11,900

Caldwell Noble County 731 0.75% 5,950 6,200 6,400 6,900

Cambridge Cambridge Municipal 207 0.50% 4,219 4,300 4,400 4,700

Carrollton Carroll County‐Tolson 1,150 0.75% 34,550 35,900 37,200 40,100

Celina Lakefield 1,246 0.75% 16,212 16,800 17,500 18,800

Chesapeake/Huntington, WV Lawrence County Airpark 1,044 0.25% 41,910 42,400 43,000 44,000

Chillicothe Ross County 1,118 0.75% 47,600 49,400 51,300 55,200

Cincinnati Cincinnati Municipal‐Lunken Field 337 0.00% 65,753 65,800 65,800 65,800

Circleville Pickaway County Memorial 1,044 0.50% 35,450 36,300 37,300 39,100

Cleveland Burke Lakefront 2,063 0.25% 72,950 73,900 74,800 76,700

Cleveland Cuyahoga County 259 0.25% 34,466 34,900 35,300 36,200

Cleveland Cleveland‐Hopkins Int'l 295 0.25% 8,779 8,900 9,000 9,200

Columbus Port Columbus International 280 0.75% 23,713 24,600 25,500 27,500

Columbus Rickenbacker International 916 0.75% 21,053 21,800 22,700 24,400

Columbus Ohio State University 407 0.75% 68,237 70,800 73,500 79,200

Columbus Bolton Field 269 0.75% 23,329 24,200 25,100 27,100

Coshocton Richard Downing 722 0.25% 19,550 19,800 20,000 20,500

Dayton James M. Cox Dayton Int'l 1,323 0.00% 41,626 41,600 41,600 41,600

Dayton Greene County‐Lewis A. Jackson Rgnl 447 0.00% 38,900 38,900 38,900 38,900

Dayton Moraine Air Park 171 0.00% 19,188 19,200 19,200 19,200

Dayton Dayton‐Wright Brothers 872 0.00% 89,045 89,000 89,000 89,000

Defiance Defiance Memorial 400 0.25% 9,230 9,300 9,500 9,700

Delaware Delaware Municipal‐Jim Moore Field 473 1.50% 39,300 42,300 45,600 52,800

Deshler Deshler Municipal Landing Strip 333 0.75% 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,300

East Liverpool Columbiana County 1,073 0.50% 31,156 31,900 32,700 34,400

Findlay Findlay 980 0.25% 25,000 25,300 25,600 26,300

Fostoria Fostoria Metropolitan 305 0.00% 6,700 6,700 6,700 6,700

Fremont Sandusky County Regional 509 0.00% 5,616 5,600 5,600 5,600

Galion Galion Municipal 188 0.50% 6,216 6,400 6,500 6,900

Gallipolis Gallia‐Meigs Regional 344 0.75% 19,800 20,500 21,300 23,000

Georgetown Brown County 432 0.75% 8,212 8,500 8,800 9,500

Hamilton Butler County Regional 305 0.75% 61,687 64,000 66,400 71,600

Harrison Cincinnati West 647 0.00% 20,712 20,700 20,700 20,700

Hillsboro Highland County 650 0.75% 14,000 14,500 15,100 16,200

Jackson James A. Rhodes 251 0.50% 6,053 6,200 6,400 6,700

Kelleys Island Kelleys Island Municipal 5,099 0.50% 25,495 26,100 26,800 28,200

Kent Kent State University 1,763 0.25% 72,500 73,400 74,300 76,200





(GA ops) AAGR

2012‐2032 2012 2017 2022 2032

Kenton Hardin County 384 0.25% 6,582 6,700 6,700 6,900

Lancaster Fairfield County 494 0.75% 43,066 44,700 46,400 50,000

Lebanon Warren County/John Lane Field 265 1.50% 31,525 33,900 36,600 42,400

Lima Lima Allen County 800 0.00% 32,500 32,500 32,500 32,500

London Madison County 815 0.50% 43,665 44,800 45,900 48,200

Lorain/Elyria Lorain County Regional 227 0.25% 18,823 19,100 19,300 19,800

Mansfield Mansfield Lahm Regional 185 0.50% 17,879 18,300 18,800 19,700

Marion Marion Municipal 787 0.25% 42,650 43,200 43,700 44,800

Marysville Union County 387 1.50% 30,560 32,900 35,400 41,100

McArthur Vinton County 354 0.75% 5,225 5,400 5,600 6,100

McConnelsville Morgan County 700 0.00% 5,625 5,600 5,600 5,600

Medina Medina Municipal 959 0.75% 79,685 82,700 85,800 92,400

Middle Bass Middle Bass Island 6,500 0.00% 6,500 6,500 6,500 6,500

Middlefield Geauga County 177 0.75% 7,450 7,700 8,000 8,600

Middletown Middletown Regional/Hook Field 444 0.75% 40,050 41,600 43,100 46,500

Millersburg Holmes County 515 0.75% 13,350 13,900 14,400 15,500

Mount Gilead Morrow County 1,072 0.75% 22,608 23,500 24,400 26,200

Mount Vernon Knox County 209 0.75% 20,150 20,900 21,700 23,400

Napoleon Henry County 744 0.50% 15,637 16,000 16,400 17,300

New Lexington Perry County 500 0.75% 4,550 4,700 4,900 5,300

New Philadelphia Harry Clever Field 399 0.50% 16,650 17,100 17,500 18,400

Newark Newark‐Heath 182 0.75% 12,457 12,900 13,400 14,500

North Bass Island North Bass Island 1,000 0.00% 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000

Norwalk Norwalk‐Huron County 400 0.50% 10,100 10,400 10,600 11,200

Ottawa Putnam County 541 0.50% 11,910 12,200 12,500 13,200

Oxford Miami University 519 0.75% 4,160 4,300 4,500 4,800

Piqua Piqua‐Hartzell Field 330 0.50% 10,900 11,200 11,500 12,000

Port Clinton Carl R. Keller Field 433 0.00% 22,150 22,200 22,200 22,200

Portsmouth Greater Portsmouth Regional 1,623 0.00% 45,830 45,800 45,800 45,800

Put In Bay Put In Bay 4,025 0.00% 12,075 12,100 12,100 12,100

Ravenna Portage County 162 0.25% 9,621 9,700 9,900 10,100

Sidney Sidney Municipal 499 0.50% 20,500 21,000 21,500 22,600

Springfield Springfield‐Beckley Municipal 235 0.50% 9,174 9,400 9,600 10,100

Steubenville Jefferson County Airpark 224 0.00% 7,898 7,900 7,900 7,900

Tiffin Seneca County 1,875 0.00% 60,165 60,200 60,200 60,200

Toledo Toledo Executive 1,775 0.75% 90,700 94,100 97,700 105,200

Toledo Toledo Express 479 0.00% 28,835 28,800 28,800 28,800

Upper Sandusky Wyandot County 617 0.25% 7,410 7,500 7,600 7,800

Urbana Grimes Field 721 0.75% 23,480 24,400 25,300 27,200

Van Wert Van Wert County 586 0.00% 20,516 20,500 20,500 20,500

Versailles Darke County 329 0.25% 9,238 9,400 9,500 9,700

Wadsworth Wadsworth Municipal 191 0.75% 15,325 15,900 16,500 17,800

Wapakoneta Neil Armstrong 980 0.75% 29,456 30,600 31,700 34,200

Washington Court House Fayette County 1,819 0.50% 29,405 30,100 30,900 32,500

Wauseon Fulton County 749 0.75% 26,223 27,200 28,200 30,400

Waverly Pike County 250 0.75% 2,012 2,100 2,200 2,300

West Union Alexander Salamon 433 0.75% 5,210 5,400 5,600 6,000

Willard Willard 2,700 0.50% 2,715 2,800 2,900 3,000

Willoughby Willoughby Lost Nation Municipal 601 0.25% 45,085 45,600 46,200 47,400





(GA ops) AAGR

2012‐2032 2012 2017 2022 2032

Wilmington Clinton Field 887 0.75% 27,860 28,900 30,000 32,300

Wilmington Wilmington Air Park 900 0.00% 900 900 900 900

Woodsfield Monroe County 193 0.00% 3,324 3,300 3,300 3,300

Wooster Wayne County 2,330 0.75% 96,520 100,200 104,000 112,000

Youngstown/ Warren Youngstown‐Warren Regional 458 0.00% 21,016 21,000 21,000 21,000

Zanesville Zanesville Municipal 1,826 0.75% 33,312 34,600 35,900 38,600

Ohio Total 0.47% 2,723,518 2,786,900 2,853,100 2,993,000

Source:FAA Aerospace Forecast 2013‐2033, U.S. Census, CDM Smith

Top‐Down: FAA GA Hours Flown Methodology ThismethodologyusestheFAA’sprojectedaverageannualgrowthrateofnationalgeneralaviationhoursflown(asfoundinFAAAerospaceForecasts,FY2013‐2033)andappliesthatgrowthratetoeachairport’s2012generalaviationoperations.Inthisprojectionmethodology,futuregeneralaviationoperationsareprojectedbasedontheassumptionthatgeneralaviationoperationsaredirectlycorrelatedtothenumberofhoursflownandthatiftheaveragehoursflownperoperationremainsconstant,totaloperationsmustincreaseiftotalhoursflownareprojectedtoincrease.TheFAA’sprojectedaverageannualgrowthrateofnationalgeneralaviationoperationsfrom2012to2032is1.45percent.WhenthisgrowthrateisappliedtoeachofOhio’ssystemairports,totalstatewidegeneralaviationoperationsincreasefrom2,723,518in2012to3,632,100in2032.Table4‐19identifiestheprojectedgeneralaviationoperationsforeachofOhio’ssystemairportsusingthismethodology.

Table4‐19GeneralAviationOperationsProjection:Top‐DownMethodology

Associated City Airport Name

FAA Hours Flown AAGR 2012‐2032 2012 2017 2022 2032

Akron Akron Fulton International 1.45% 29,950 32,200 34,600 39,900

Akron Akron‐Canton 1.45% 69,137 72,700 78,100 90,200

Ashland Ashland County 1.45% 11,010 11,300 12,100 14,000

Ashtabula Northeast Ohio Regional 1.45% 16,886 18,100 19,500 22,500

Athens/Albany Ohio University‐Snyder Field 1.45% 55,400 59,300 63,700 73,600

Barnesville Barnesville‐Bradfield 1.45% 10,150 10,900 11,700 13,500

Batavia Clermont County 1.45% 38,650 41,400 44,500 51,400

Bellefontaine Bellefontaine Regional 1.45% 16,650 17,900 19,200 22,200

Bluffton Bluffton 1.45% 72,130 77,300 83,100 96,000

Bowling Green Wood County 1.45% 27,405 29,300 31,500 36,400

Bryan Williams County 1.45% 12,010 12,900 13,900 16,000

Bucyrus Port Bucyrus‐Crawford County 1.45% 24,871 26,600 28,600 33,000

Cadiz Harrison County 1.45% 11,900 12,700 13,700 15,800

Caldwell Noble County 1.45% 5,950 6,300 6,800 7,800

Cambridge Cambridge Municipal 1.45% 4,219 4,500 4,800 5,500

Carrollton Carroll County‐Tolson 1.45% 34,550 37,100 39,800 46,000

Celina Lakefield 1.45% 16,212 17,400 18,700 21,600

Chesapeake/ Huntington, WV Lawrence County Airpark 1.45% 41,910 44,900 48,200 55,700

Chillicothe Ross County 1.45% 47,600 46,900 50,400 58,100

Cincinnati Cincinnati Municipal‐Lunken Field 1.45% 65,753 69,800 75,000 86,600

Circleville Pickaway County Memorial 1.45% 35,450 37,000 39,800 45,900

Cleveland Burke Lakefront 1.45% 72,950 77,600 83,400 96,300






Cleveland Cuyahoga County 1.45% 34,466 37,000 39,700 45,900

Cleveland Cleveland‐Hopkins Int'l 1.45% 8,779 9,200 9,900 11,400

Columbus Port Columbus International 1.45% 23,713 25,000 26,900 31,000

Columbus Rickenbacker International 1.45% 21,053 22,600 24,300 28,100

Columbus Ohio State University 1.45% 68,237 73,100 78,600 90,700

Columbus Bolton Field 1.45% 23,329 24,800 26,700 30,800

Coshocton Richard Downing 1.45% 19,550 21,000 22,500 26,000

Dayton James M. Cox Dayton Int'l 1.45% 41,626 44,100 47,400 54,700

Dayton Greene County‐Lewis A. Jackson Rgnl 1.45% 38,900 41,800 44,900 51,900

Dayton Moraine Air Park 1.45% 19,188 20,600 22,100 25,500

Dayton Dayton‐Wright Brothers 1.45% 89,045 95,600 102,700 118,600

Defiance Defiance Memorial 1.45% 9,230 9,900 10,600 12,300

Delaware Delaware Municipal‐Jim Moore Field 1.45% 39,300 42,200 45,400 52,400

Deshler Deshler Municipal Landing Strip 1.45% 2,000 2,100 2,300 2,700

East Liverpool Columbiana County 1.45% 31,156 33,500 36,000 41,500

Findlay Findlay 1.45% 25,000 26,300 28,300 32,700

Fostoria Fostoria Metropolitan 1.45% 6,700 7,200 7,700 8,900

Fremont Sandusky County Regional 1.45% 5,616 6,000 6,500 7,500

Galion Galion Municipal 1.45% 6,216 6,700 7,200 8,300

Gallipolis Gallia‐Meigs Regional 1.45% 19,800 21,300 22,900 26,400

Georgetown Brown County 1.45% 8,212 8,800 9,500 11,000

Hamilton Butler County Regional 1.45% 61,687 66,300 71,200 82,300

Harrison Cincinnati West 1.45% 20,712 22,300 23,900 27,600

Hillsboro Highland County 1.45% 14,000 15,000 16,200 18,700

Jackson James A. Rhodes 1.45% 6,053 6,500 7,000 8,100

Kelleys Island Kelleys Island Municipal 1.45% 25,495 27,400 29,400 34,000

Kent Kent State University 1.45% 72,500 77,900 83,700 96,700

Kenton Hardin County 1.45% 6,582 7,100 7,600 8,800

Lancaster Fairfield County 1.45% 43,066 46,300 49,700 57,400

Lebanon Warren County/John Lane Field 1.45% 31,525 33,900 36,400 42,000

Lima Lima Allen County 1.45% 32,500 34,900 37,500 43,300

London Madison County 1.45% 43,665 46,900 50,400 58,200

Lorain/Elyria Lorain County Regional 1.45% 18,823 20,200 21,700 25,100

Mansfield Mansfield Lahm Regional 1.45% 17,879 19,200 20,600 23,800

Marion Marion Municipal 1.45% 42,650 45,800 49,300 56,900

Marysville Union County 1.45% 30,560 32,800 35,300 40,800

McArthur Vinton County 1.45% 5,225 5,600 6,000 7,000

McConnelsville Morgan County 1.45% 5,625 6,000 6,500 7,500

Medina Medina Municipal 1.45% 79,685 85,600 92,000 106,300

Middle Bass Middle Bass Island 1.45% 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,700

Middlefield Geauga County 1.45% 7,450 8,000 8,600 9,900

Middletown Middletown Regional/Hook Field 1.45% 40,050 43,000 46,300 53,400

Millersburg Holmes County 1.45% 13,350 14,300 15,400 17,800

Mount Gilead Morrow County 1.45% 22,608 24,300 26,100 30,200

Mount Vernon Knox County 1.45% 20,150 21,700 23,300 26,900

Napoleon Henry County 1.45% 15,637 16,800 18,100 20,900

New Lexington Perry County 1.45% 4,550 4,900 5,300 6,100

New Philadelphia Harry Clever Field 1.45% 16,650 17,900 19,200 22,200






Newark Newark‐Heath 1.45% 12,457 13,400 14,400 16,600

North Bass Island North Bass Island 1.45% 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300

Norwalk Norwalk‐Huron County 1.45% 10,100 10,900 11,700 13,500

Ottawa Putnam County 1.45% 11,910 12,800 13,800 15,900

Oxford Miami University 1.45% 4,160 4,500 4,800 5,500

Piqua Piqua‐Hartzell Field 1.45% 10,900 11,700 12,600 14,500

Port Clinton Carl R. Keller Field 1.45% 22,150 23,800 25,600 29,500

Portsmouth Greater Portsmouth Regional 1.45% 45,830 49,300 52,900 61,100

Put In Bay Put In Bay 1.45% 12,075 13,000 13,900 16,100

Ravenna Portage County 1.45% 9,621 10,300 11,100 12,800

Sidney Sidney Municipal 1.45% 20,500 22,000 23,700 27,300

Springfield Springfield‐Beckley Municipal 1.45% 9,174 9,900 10,600 12,200

Steubenville Jefferson County Airpark 1.45% 7,898 8,500 9,100 10,500

Tiffin Seneca County 1.45% 60,165 64,700 69,500 80,200

Toledo Toledo Executive 1.45% 90,700 97,500 104,700 121,000

Toledo Toledo Express 1.45% 28,835 31,000 33,300 38,500

Upper Sandusky Wyandot County 1.45% 7,410 8,000 8,600 9,900

Urbana Grimes Field 1.45% 23,480 25,200 27,100 31,300

Van Wert Van Wert County 1.45% 20,516 22,000 23,700 27,400

Versailles Darke County 1.45% 9,238 9,900 10,700 12,300

Wadsworth Wadsworth Municipal 1.45% 15,325 16,500 17,700 20,400

Wapakoneta Neil Armstrong 1.45% 29,456 31,700 34,000 39,300

Washington Court House Fayette County 1.45% 29,405 31,600 34,000 39,200

Wauseon Fulton County 1.45% 26,223 28,200 30,300 35,000

Waverly Pike County 1.45% 2,012 2,200 2,300 2,700

West Union Alexander Salamon 1.45% 5,210 5,600 6,000 6,900

Willard Willard 1.45% 2,715 2,900 3,100 3,600

Willoughby Willoughby Lost Nation Municipal 1.45% 45,085 48,500 52,100 60,100

Wilmington Clinton Field 1.45% 27,860 29,900 32,200 37,200

Wilmington Wilmington Air Park 1.45% 900 1,000 1,000 1,200

Woodsfield Monroe County 1.45% 3,324 3,600 3,800 4,400

Wooster Wayne County 1.45% 96,520 103,700 111,500 128,700

Youngstown/Warren Youngstown‐Warren Regional 1.45% 21,016 22,600 24,300 28,000

Zanesville Zanesville Municipal 1.45% 33,312 35,800 38,500 44,400

Ohio Total 1.45% 2,723,518 2,926,600 3,145,100 3,632,100


Preferred General Aviation Operations Methodology TheresultsfromthetwogeneralaviationoperationsprojectionmethodologiesdevelopedinthisforecastarecomparedinTable4‐20.In2012,theOhioairportsexaminedaspartofthisanalysisaccommodatedover2.7milliongeneralaviationoperations.Thebottom‐up,orOPBA,methodologyproduceda2032statewideprojectionofapproximatelythreemilliongeneralaviationoperations,anaverageannualgrowthrateof0.47percent.Thetop‐downmethodologyproduceda2032statewideprojectionofover3.6milliongeneralaviationoperations,anaverageannualgrowthrateof1.45percent.Aftercomparingtheresultsandtheaverageannualgrowthratesofeachmethodology(Table4‐20),thebottom‐upgrowthratemethodologywaschosenasthepreferredmethodology.Thisrateismoreconservativethanprojectedgrowthinnationalhoursflownandalsotakesintoconsiderationtheactivitycharacteristicsofeachindividualairport.



Table4‐20GeneralAviationOperationsProjections:ComparisonofMethodologies

Methodology AAGR 2012‐2032 2012 2017 2022 2032

Bottom‐Up/OBPA ‐Preferred 0.47% 2,723,518 2,786,900 2,853,100 2,993,000

Top‐Down 1.45% 2,723,518 2,926,600 3,145,100 3,632,100


Local/Itinerant Split TheFAAdefineslocalgeneralaviationoperationsasthoseperformedbyaircraftthat:

Operateinthelocaltrafficpatternorwithinsightofanairport, Areknowntobedepartingfororarrivingfromflightinlocalpracticeareaswithina20‐mile

radiusoftheairport,or Areexecutingpracticeinstrumentapproaches

Allotheroperationsareconsidereditinerant.

EstimatesoflocalanditerantoperationswereobtainedfromairtrafficcontroltowersandtheAirportInventoryandDataSurvey.However,foravarietyofreasonsseveralairportsarethoughttohaveveryhighoperationsnumbers.Sinceitinerantoperationsareusedtodeterminegeneralaviationvisitorimpactsintheeconomicimpactportionofthisstudy,itwasimportanttohavearealisticestimateofitinerantoperations.Toavoidexaggeratinggeneralaviationvisitorimpacts,itinerantoperationsatairportswithoverlyhighestimateswereadjusteddownwardtomorerealisticlevels.ThiswasdonebycalculatingtheaverageOPBAofitinerantoperationsatallofOhio’stoweredgeneralaviationairportsandapplyingittothecurrentbasedaircraftestimateforeachairport.Thismethoddoesnotaltertotalgeneralaviationoperations;itonlyreducestheitinerantshareandincreasesthelocalshareproportionally.Inordertobeconsistent,thisadjustmentwasmadeforallnon‐toweredairportsthathaveanOPBAratiogreaterthan800andgreaterthan10basedaircraft.Itisrecommendedthatthenexttimetheseairportsundertakeanactivityforecast,suchasinamasterplan,adetailedassessmentofactivityshouldoccur.

Itisthenassumedthatthesplitbetweenlocalanditinerantoperationswillremainconstantforeachairportthroughoutthestudyperiod.Statewide,approximately65percentofallgeneralaviationoperationsareconsideredlocal,whiletheremaining35percentareitinerant.Table4‐21detailsthe2012local/itinerantsplitofgeneralaviationoperationsforeachsystemairport,whileTable4‐22detailstheprojectionoflocal/itinerantgeneralaviationoperations.



Table4‐21CurrentLocal/ItinerantSplitofGeneralAviationOperations

Associated City Airport Name 2012 Total

2012 Split

Local Itinerant Local Share

Itinerant Share

Akron Akron Fulton International 29,950 20,000 9,950 66.80% 33.20%

Akron Akron‐Canton 69,137 17,895 51,242 25.90% 74.10%

Ashland Ashland County 11,010 10,000 1,010 90.80% 9.20%

Ashtabula Northeast Ohio Regional 16,886 11,152 5,734 66.00% 34.00%

Athens/ Albany Ohio University‐Snyder Field 55,400 44,218 11,182 79.80% 20.20%

Barnesville Barnesville‐Bradfield 10,150 7,700 2,450 75.90% 24.10%

Batavia Clermont County 38,650 28,000 10,650 72.40% 27.60%

Bellefontaine Bellefontaine Regional 16,650 13,800 2,850 82.90% 17.10%

Bluffton Bluffton* 72,130 66,087 6,043 91.60% 8.40%

Bowling Green Wood County 27,405 20,000 7,405 73.00% 27.00%

Bryan Williams County 12,010 10,000 2,010 83.30% 16.70%

Bucyrus Port Bucyrus‐Crawford County 24,871 17,562 7,309 70.60% 29.40%

Cadiz Harrison County 11,900 9,690 2,210 81.40% 18.60%

Caldwell Noble County 5,950 4,200 1,750 70.60% 29.40%

Cambridge Cambridge Municipal 4,219 1,691 2,528 40.10% 59.90%

Carrollton Carroll County‐Tolson* 34,550 26,996 7,554 78.10% 21.90%

Celina Lakefield* 16,212 12,939 3,273 79.80% 20.20%

Chesapeake/ Huntington, WV Lawrence County Airpark 41,910 38,500 3,410 91.90% 8.10%

Chillicothe Ross County* 47,600 37,780 9,820 79.40% 20.60%

Cincinnati Cincinnati Municipal‐Lunken Field 65,753 10,668 55,085 16.20% 83.80%

Circleville Pickaway County Memorial* 35,450 27,140 8,310 76.60% 23.40%

Cleveland Burke Lakefront 72,950 25,908 47,042 35.50% 64.50%

Cleveland Cuyahoga County 34,466 13,086 21,380 38.00% 62.00%

Cleveland Cleveland‐Hopkins Int'l 8,779 0 8,779 0.00% 100.00%

Columbus Port Columbus International 23,713 0 23,713 0.00% 100.00%

Columbus Rickenbacker International 21,053 4,550 16,503 21.60% 78.40%

Columbus Ohio State University 68,237 29,223 39,014 42.80% 57.20%

Columbus Bolton Field 23,329 10,300 13,029 44.20% 55.80%

Coshocton Richard Downing 19,550 15,000 4,550 76.70% 23.30%

Dayton James M. Cox Dayton Int'l 41,626 12,880 28,746 30.90% 69.10%

Dayton Greene County‐Lewis A. Jackson Rgnl 38,900 35,000 3,900 90.00% 10.00%

Dayton Moraine Air Park 19,188 7,000 12,188 36.50% 63.50%

Dayton Dayton‐Wright Brothers* 89,045 63,361 25,684 71.20% 28.80%

Defiance Defiance Memorial 9,230 5,200 4,030 56.30% 43.70%

Delaware Delaware Municipal‐Jim Moore Field 39,300 33,000 6,300 84.00% 16.00%

Deshler Deshler Municipal Landing Strip 2,000 1,200 800 60.00% 40.00%

East Liverpool Columbiana County 31,156 26,400 4,756 84.70% 15.30%

Findlay Findlay* 25,000 18,705 6,295 74.80% 25.20%

Fostoria Fostoria Metropolitan 6,700 2,500 4,200 37.30% 62.70%

Fremont Sandusky County Regional 5,616 2,000 3,616 35.60% 64.40%

Galion Galion Municipal 6,216 4,400 1,816 70.80% 29.20%

Gallipolis Gallia‐Meigs Regional 19,800 12,870 6,930 65.00% 35.00%

Georgetown Brown County 8,212 5,000 3,212 60.90% 39.10%

Hamilton Butler County Regional 61,687 16,537 45,150 26.80% 73.20%

Harrison Cincinnati West 20,712 19,527 1,185 94.30% 5.70%

Hillsboro Highland County 14,000 9,150 4,850 65.40% 34.60%

Jackson James A. Rhodes 6,053 4,500 1,553 74.30% 25.70%

Kelleys Island Kelleys Island Municipal Airport 25,495 7,300 18,195 28.60% 71.40%





2012 Split


Itinerant Share

Kent Kent State University* 72,500 62,176 10,324 85.80% 14.20%

Kenton Hardin County 6,582 4,500 2,082 68.40% 31.60%

Lancaster Fairfield County 43,066 39,700 3,366 92.20% 7.80%

Lebanon Warren County/John Lane Field 31,525 25,000 6,525 79.30% 20.70%

Lima Lima Allen County 32,500 22,428 10,072 69.00% 31.00%

London Madison County* 43,665 30,823 12,842 70.60% 29.40%

Lorain/Elyria Lorain County Regional 18,823 13,508 5,315 71.80% 28.20%

Mansfield Mansfield Lahm Regional 17,879 4,256 13,623 23.80% 76.20%

Marion Marion Municipal 42,650 22,000 20,650 51.60% 48.40%

Marysville Union County 30,560 19,000 11,560 62.20% 37.80%

McArthur Vinton County 5,225 2,750 2,475 52.60% 47.40%

McConnelsville Morgan County 5,625 3,900 1,725 69.30% 30.70%

Medina Medina Municipal* 79,685 58,785 20,900 73.80% 26.20%

Middle Bass Middle Bass Island 6,500 500 6,000 7.70% 92.30%

Middlefield Geauga County 7,450 6,400 1,050 85.90% 14.10%

Middletown Middletown Regional/Hook Field 40,050 17,800 22,250 44.40% 55.60%

Millersburg Holmes County 13,350 9,500 3,850 71.20% 28.80%

Mount Gilead Morrow County 22,608 20,000 2,608 88.50% 11.50%

Mount Vernon Knox County 20,150 12,600 7,550 62.50% 37.50%

Napoleon Henry County 15,637 15,000 637 95.90% 4.10%

New Lexington Perry County 4,550 4,000 550 87.90% 12.10%

New Philadelphia Harry Clever Field 16,650 14,000 2,650 84.10% 15.90%

Newark Newark‐Heath 12,457 6,195 6,262 49.70% 50.30%

North Bass Island North Bass Island 1,000 500 500 50.00% 50.00%

Norwalk Norwalk‐Huron County 10,100 6,000 4,100 59.40% 40.60%

Ottawa Putnam County 11,910 9,980 1,930 83.80% 16.20%

Oxford Miami University 4,160 3,650 510 87.70% 12.30%

Piqua Piqua‐Hartzell Field 10,900 4,700 6,200 43.10% 56.90%

Port Clinton Carl R. Keller Field 22,150 6,000 16,150 27.10% 72.90%

Portsmouth Greater Portsmouth Regional* 45,830 38,779 7,051 84.60% 15.40%

Put In Bay Put In Bay 12,075 1,575 10,500 13.00% 87.00%

Ravenna Portage County 9,621 3,325 6,296 34.60% 65.40%

Sidney Sidney Municipal* 20,500 14,700 5,800 71.70% 28.30%

Springfield Springfield‐Beckley Municipal 9,174 7,387 1,787 80.50% 19.50%

Steubenville Jefferson County Airpark 7,898 5,100 2,798 64.60% 35.40%

Tiffin Seneca County 60,165 52,107 8,058 86.60% 13.40%

Toledo Toledo Executive* 90,700 77,858 12,842 85.80% 14.20%

Toledo Toledo Express 28,835 8,078 20,757 28.00% 72.00%

Upper Sandusky Wyandot County 7,410 5,100 2,310 68.80% 31.20%

Urbana Grimes Field 23,480 10,710 12,770 45.60% 54.40%

Van Wert Van Wert County 20,516 16,000 4,516 78.00% 22.00%

Versailles Darke County 9,238 7,400 1,838 80.10% 19.90%

Wadsworth Wadsworth Municipal 15,325 3,300 12,025 21.50% 78.50%

Wapakoneta Neil Armstrong* 29,456 21,902 7,554 74.40% 25.60%

Washington Court House Fayette County* 29,405 25,376 4,029 86.30% 13.70%

Wauseon Fulton County 26,223 25,000 1,223 95.30% 4.70%

Waverly Pike County 2,012 800 1,212 39.80% 60.20%

West Union Alexander Salamon 5,210 3,000 2,210 57.60% 42.40%





2012 Split


Itinerant Share

Willard Willard 2,715 200 2,515 7.40% 92.60%

Willoughby Willoughby Lost Nation Municipal 45,085 24,762 20,323 54.90% 45.10%

Wilmington Clinton Field* 27,860 20,054 7,806 72.00% 28.00%

Wilmington Wilmington Air Park 900 0 900 0.00% 100.00%

Woodsfield Monroe County 3,324 1,500 1,824 45.10% 54.90%

Wooster Wayne County* 96,520 86,196 10,324 89.30% 10.70%

Youngstown/ Warren Youngstown‐Warren Regional 21,016 7,764 13,252 36.90% 63.10%

Zanesville Zanesville Municipal* 33,312 28,779 4,533 86.40% 13.60%

Ohio Total 2,723,518 1,763,016 960,502 64.70% 35.30%

Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast 2013‐2033, CDM Smith *Denotes itinerant/local operational split has been adjusted



Table4‐22ProjectedLocal/ItinerantGeneralAviationOperations


2017 2022 2032

Local Itinerant Local Itinerant Local Itinerant

Akron Akron Fulton International 20,200 10,100 20,500 10,200 21,000 10,500

Akron Akron‐Canton 18,100 51,900 18,400 52,500 18,800 53,900

Ashland Ashland County 10,400 1,000 10,800 1,100 11,600 1,200

Ashtabula Northeast Ohio Regional 11,400 5,900 11,700 6,000 12,300 6,300

Athens/ Albany Ohio University‐Snyder Field 44,800 11,300 45,300 11,500 46,500 11,700

Barnesville Barnesville‐Bradfield 7,700 2,500 7,700 2,500 7,700 2,500

Batavia Clermont County 29,100 11,000 30,100 11,500 32,500 12,300

Bellefontaine Bellefontaine Regional 14,300 3,000 14,800 3,100 16,000 3,300

Bluffton Bluffton* 48,100 24,900 48,700 25,200 49,900 25,900

Bowling Green Wood County 20,700 7,700 21,500 8,000 23,200 8,600

Bryan Williams County 10,200 2,000 10,200 2,100 10,500 2,100

Bucyrus Port Bucyrus‐Crawford County 17,800 7,400 18,000 7,500 18,400 7,700

Cadiz Harrison County 9,700 2,200 9,700 2,200 9,700 2,200

Caldwell Noble County 4,400 1,800 4,500 1,900 4,900 2,000

Cambridge Cambridge Municipal 1,700 2,600 1,800 2,600 1,900 2,800

Carrollton Carroll County‐Tolson* 14,800 21,100 15,300 21,900 16,500 23,600

Celina Lakefield* 12,400 4,400 13,000 4,500 13,900 4,900

Chesapeake/ Huntington, WV Lawrence County Airpark 39,000 3,400 39,500 3,500 40,400 3,600

Chillicothe Ross County* 34,200 15,200 35,600 15,700 38,300 16,900

Cincinnati Cincinnati Municipal‐Lunken Field 10,700 55,100 10,700 55,100 10,700 55,100

Circleville Pickaway County Memorial* 26,900 9,400 27,600 9,700 29,000 10,100

Cleveland Burke Lakefront 26,200 47,700 26,600 48,200 27,200 49,500

Cleveland Cuyahoga County 13,300 21,600 13,400 21,900 13,700 22,500

Cleveland Cleveland‐Hopkins Int'l 0 8,900 0 9,000 0 9,200

Columbus Port Columbus International 0 24,600 0 25,500 0 27,500

Columbus Rickenbacker International 4,700 17,100 4,900 17,800 5,300 19,100

Columbus Ohio State University 30,300 40,500 31,500 42,000 33,900 45,300

Columbus Bolton Field 10,700 13,500 11,100 14,000 12,000 15,100

Coshocton Richard Downing 15,200 4,600 15,300 4,700 15,700 4,800

Dayton James M. Cox Dayton Int'l 12,900 28,700 12,900 28,700 12,900 28,700

Dayton Greene County‐Lewis A. Jackson Rgnl 35,000 3,900 35,000 3,900 35,000 3,900

Dayton Moraine Air Park 7,000 12,200 7,000 12,200 7,000 12,200

Dayton Dayton‐Wright Brothers* 42,700 46,300 42,700 46,300 42,700 46,300





2017 2022 2032


Defiance Defiance Memorial 5,200 4,100 5,400 4,100 5,500 4,200

Delaware Delaware Municipal‐Jim Moore Field 35,500 6,800 38,300 7,300 44,300 8,500

Deshler Deshler Municipal Landing Strip 1,300 800 1,300 900 1,400 900

East Liverpool Columbiana County 27,000 4,900 27,700 5,000 29,100 5,300

Findlay Findlay* 12,100 13,200 12,300 13,300 12,600 13,700

Fostoria Fostoria Metropolitan 2,500 4,200 2,500 4,200 2,500 4,200

Fremont Sandusky County Regional 2,000 3,600 2,000 3,600 2,000 3,600

Galion Galion Municipal 4,500 1,900 4,600 1,900 4,900 2,000

Gallipolis Gallia‐Meigs Regional 13,300 7,200 13,800 7,500 15,000 8,100

Georgetown Brown County 5,200 3,300 5,400 3,400 5,800 3,700

Hamilton Butler County Regional 17,200 46,800 17,800 48,600 19,200 52,400

Harrison Cincinnati West 19,500 1,200 19,500 1,200 19,500 1,200

Hillsboro Highland County 9,500 5,000 9,900 5,200 10,600 5,600

Jackson James A. Rhodes 4,600 1,600 4,800 1,600 5,000 1,700

Kelleys Island Kelleys Island Municipal 7,500 18,600 7,700 19,100 8,100 20,100

Kent Kent State University* 60,100 13,300 60,900 13,400 62,400 13,800

Kenton Hardin County 4,600 2,100 4,600 2,100 4,700 2,200

Lancaster Fairfield County 41,200 3,500 42,800 3,600 46,100 3,900

Lebanon Warren County/John Lane Field 26,900 7,000 29,000 7,600 33,600 8,800

Lima Lima Allen County 20,000 12,500 20,000 12,500 20,000 12,500

London Madison County* 23,100 21,700 23,700 22,200 24,800 23,400

Lorain/Elyria Lorain County Regional 13,700 5,400 13,900 5,400 14,200 5,600

Mansfield Mansfield Lahm Regional 4,400 13,900 4,500 14,300 4,700 15,000

Marion Marion Municipal 22,300 20,900 22,500 21,200 23,100 21,700

Marysville Union County 20,500 12,400 22,000 13,400 25,600 15,500

McArthur Vinton County 2,800 2,600 2,900 2,700 3,200 2,900

McConnelsville Morgan County 3,900 1,700 3,900 1,700 3,900 1,700

Medina Medina Municipal* 57,200 25,500 59,300 26,500 63,900 28,500

Middle Bass Middle Bass Island 500 6,000 500 6,000 500 6,000

Middlefield Geauga County 6,600 1,100 6,900 1,100 7,400 1,200

Middletown Middletown Regional/Hook Field 18,500 23,100 19,200 23,900 20,700 25,800

Millersburg Holmes County 9,900 4,000 10,200 4,200 11,000 4,500

Mount Gilead Morrow County 20,800 2,700 21,600 2,800 23,200 3,000





2017 2022 2032


Mount Vernon Knox County 13,100 7,800 13,600 8,100 14,600 8,800

Napoleon Henry County 15,300 700 15,700 700 16,600 700

New Lexington Perry County 4,100 600 4,300 600 4,700 600

New Philadelphia Harry Clever Field 14,400 2,700 14,700 2,800 15,500 2,900

Newark Newark‐Heath 6,400 6,500 6,700 6,700 7,200 7,300

North Bass Island North Bass Island 500 500 500 500 500 500

Norwalk Norwalk‐Huron County 6,200 4,200 6,300 4,300 6,700 4,500

Ottawa Putnam County 10,200 2,000 10,500 2,000 11,100 2,100

Oxford Miami University 3,800 500 3,900 600 4,200 600

Piqua Piqua‐Hartzell Field 4,800 6,400 5,000 6,500 5,200 6,800

Port Clinton Carl R. Keller Field 6,000 16,200 6,000 16,200 6,000 16,200

Portsmouth Greater Portsmouth Regional* 27,000 18,800 27,000 18,800 27,000 18,800

Put In Bay Put In Bay 1,600 10,500 1,600 10,500 1,600 10,500

Ravenna Portage County 3,400 6,300 3,400 6,500 3,500 6,600

Sidney Sidney Municipal 15,100 5,900 15,400 6,100 16,200 6,400

Springfield Springfield‐Beckley Municipal 7,600 1,800 7,700 1,900 8,100 2,000

Steubenville Jefferson County Airpark 5,100 2,800 5,100 2,800 5,100 2,800

Tiffin Seneca County* 41,000 19,200 41,000 19,200 41,000 19,200

Toledo Toledo Executive* 60,200 33,900 62,500 35,200 67,300 37,900

Toledo Toledo Express 8,100 20,700 8,100 20,700 8,100 20,700

Upper Sandusky Wyandot County 5,200 2,300 5,200 2,400 5,400 2,400

Urbana Grimes Field 11,100 13,300 11,500 13,800 12,400 14,800

Van Wert Van Wert County 16,000 4,500 16,000 4,500 16,000 4,500

Versailles Darke County 7,500 1,900 7,600 1,900 7,800 1,900

Wadsworth Wadsworth Municipal 3,400 12,500 3,600 12,900 3,800 14,000

Wapakoneta Neil Armstrong* 20,780 9,800 21,520 10,200 23,220 11,000

Washington Court House Fayette County* 13,300 16,800 13,700 17,200 14,400 18,100

Wauseon Fulton County 25,900 1,300 26,900 1,300 29,000 1,400

Waverly Pike County 800 1,300 900 1,300 900 1,400

West Union Alexander Salamon 3,100 2,300 3,200 2,400 3,500 2,500

Willard Willard 200 2,600 200 2,700 200 2,800

Willoughby Willoughby Lost Nation Municipal 25,000 20,600 25,400 20,800 26,000 21,400

Wilmington Clinton Field* 20,200 8,700 21,000 9,000 22,600 9,700





2017 2022 2032


Wilmington Wilmington Air Park 0 900 0 900 0 900

Woodsfield Monroe County 1,500 1,800 1,500 1,800 1,500 1,800

Wooster Wayne County* 57,100 43,100 59,300 44,700 63,800 48,200

Youngstown/ Warren Youngstown‐Warren Regional 7,800 13,200 7,800 13,200 7,800 13,200

Zanesville Zanesville Municipal* 26,000 8,600 26,900 9,000 29,000 9,600

OHIO TOTAL 1,624,900 1,162,000 1,663,400 1,189,700 1,745,000 1,248,000

Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast 2013‐2033, CDM Smith *Denotes itinerant/local operational split has been adjusted



Jet Operations Theaccommodationofjetaircraftbygeneralaviationairportsisanimportantfactorindetermininganairport’sairportreferencecode(ARC)andservicerole.Theuseofanairportbybusinessjetssignifiesnotonlystrongdemandforairportservicesbutalsoeconomic/businessinterestinanareaorregion.Jetsareprimarilyutilizedbycorporations/businesspersonswhoplaceahighvalueontheirtimewhentraveling.Althoughgenerallymoreexpensivetooperateperperson(comparedtocommercialairlines),savingsarerealizedthroughreducedtraveltimesandmoredirectaccesstolocalities.

Unfortunately,nosystemsexistforaccuratelycountingjetoperations,evenattoweredairports.ThebestoptionforestimatingjetoperationscomesintheformofIFRdata,whichareflightplansfiledbypilotsoperatingunderinstrumentflightrules.IFRdatacontainsflightinformationsuchasorigin,destination,aircrafttype,N‐number,date,andtime.Thisdataisrecordedandismadecommerciallyavailablethroughanonlinedatabase.Flightplansaremorecommonlyfiledbypilotsoperatinglarger,moreexpensiveaircraftonlongeritinerantflights;therefore,IFRdataforjetsandturbopropaircraftareconsideredmorereliablethanthatofpistonaircraft.However,forprivacyreasonsmanybusinessaircraftoperatorsareincreasinglyopting‐outofpubliclyfilingtheirflightplans,whichdegradesthereliabilityofthedata.ThejetoperationsfoundinIFRdatacanbeconsideredabaseline,orminimum,numberofjetoperationsforeachsystemairportwhereastheactualnumberwouldbehigher.

InordertoestimatejetoperationsatsystemairportsavarietyofinventorydatawereconsideredinadditiontoIFRdata.Otherpertinentdataconsideredincludesjetfuelvolumesold,basedjets,runwaylength,andairportreferencecode(ARC).Eachofthesedatasetsprovidesinsightintoanairport’spropensityforaccommodatingjetoperations.Sinceitisdifficulttoestimateexactnumbersofjetoperations,rangeswereestablishedatintervalssignificanttoairportfacilityplanningprocess.Thethreerangesinclude:less‐than300jetoperations(<300),between300and700jetoperations(300‐700),orgreater‐than700jetoperations(>700).

TotaljetoperationsreportedintheIFRdatabasefora12monthperiodendinginOctober2012wereanalyzedandusedasabaselineforjetoperations.Basedjetsateachairportbecametheotherprimaryfactorintheformulaforestimatingjetoperations.Thelowrangeformulaincorporatesairportswithnobasedjetsandlessthan50IFRjetoperations;themediumrangeformulaincludesairportswithonebasedjetandanynumberofIFRjetoperations;andthehighrangeformulaincludesairportswithatleasttwobasedjetsandatleast50IFRjetoperations.TheestimatedjetoperationsrangesaswellasthedeterminingcriteriaforeachairportareshowninTable4‐23below.



Table4‐23EstimatedJetOperationsRanges

Associated City Airport IFR Jet Ops

IFR Total Ops

Jet A Gallons Sold

Based Jets

Jet Ops Range

Akron Akron‐Canton 2,531 5,168 NA 38 >700

Akron Akron Fulton International 367 1,621 250,000 9 >700

Ashland Ashland County 4 225 10,459 0 <300

Ashtabula Northeast Ohio Regional 92 348 26,200 2 >700

Athens/Albany Ohio University‐Snyder Field 49 650 63,500 1 300‐700

Barnesville Barnesville‐Bradfield 0 12 250 0 <300

Batavia Clermont County 8 1,750 30,000 1 300‐700

Bellefontaine Bellefontaine Regional 28 234 14,100 0 <300

Bluffton Bluffton 0 161 43,375 0 <300

Bowling Green Wood County 54 686 10,755 0 300‐700

Bryan Williams County 243 482 20,000 1 300‐700

Bucyrus Port Bucyrus‐Crawford County 0 116 6,000 0 <300

Cadiz Harrison County 0 51 NA 0 <300

Caldwell Noble County 0 1 NA 0 <300

Cambridge Cambridge Municipal 21 121 25,660 0 <300

Carrollton Carroll County‐Tolson 21 182 10,000 0 <300

Celina Lakefield 14 168 2,685 0 <300

Chesapeake/Huntington, WV Lawrence County Airpark 0 130 NA 0 <300

Chillicothe Ross County 50 278 500,000 1 300‐700

Cincinnati Cincinnati Municipal‐Lunken Field 4,320 10,200 5,122,455 50 >700

Circleville Pickaway County Memorial 6 115 24,000 0 <300

Cleveland Cleveland‐Hopkins Int'l 2,805 4,190 NA 18 >700

Cleveland Cuyahoga County 1,720 3,781 802,000 56 >700

Cleveland Burke Lakefront 1,606 3,936 1,296,943 8 >700

Columbus Port Columbus International 5,334 9,010 2,121,614 35 >700

Columbus Ohio State University 2,395 6,831 765,730 12 >700

Columbus Bolton Field 338 1,330 134,810 3 >700

Columbus Rickenbacker International 233 663 302,211 2 >700

Coshocton Richard Downing 7 116 NA 0 <300

Dayton James M. Cox Dayton Int'l 1,095 3,072 19,352,421 5 >700

Dayton Dayton‐Wright Brothers 617 3,075 210,730 7 >700

Dayton Greene County‐Lewis A. Jackson Rgnl 10 764 7,480 0 <300

Dayton Moraine Air Park 0 108 NA 0 <300

Defiance Defiance Memorial 4 356 10,178 0 <300

Delaware Delaware Municipal‐Jim Moore Field 85 645 66,510 1 300‐700

Deshler Deshler Municipal Landing Strip 0 0 NA 0 <300

East Liverpool Columbiana County 2 87 NA 0 <300

Findlay Findlay 200 636 154,439 3 >700

Fostoria Fostoria Metropolitan 28 93 20,200 2 300‐700

Fremont Sandusky County Regional 79 263 31,000 0 300‐700

Galion Galion Municipal 0 64 NA 0 <300

Gallipolis Gallia‐Meigs Regional 12 123 NA 0 <300

Georgetown Brown County 0 25 NA 0 <300

Hamilton Butler County Regional 454 2,216 292,890 6 >700

Harrison Cincinnati West 0 411 NA 0 <300

Hillsboro Highland County 0 23 NA 0 <300

Jackson James A. Rhodes 42 89 10,520 0 <300

Kelleys Island Kelleys Island Municipal 0 19 NA 0 <300





IFR Total Ops

Jet A Gallons Sold

Based Jets

Jet Ops Range

Kent Kent State University 19 482 5,126 0 <300

Kenton Hardin County 0 33 4,600 0 <300

Lancaster Fairfield County 52 675 13,654 0 300‐700

Lebanon Warren County/John Lane Field 8 784 39,226 4 300‐700

Lima Lima Allen County 104 376 72,000 1 300‐700

London Madison County 2 182 9,722 0 <300

Lorain/Elyria Lorain County Regional 246 1,293 127,197 1 300‐700

Mansfield Mansfield Lahm Regional 313 1,229 140,000 2 >700

Marion Marion Municipal 104 294 24,557 2 >700

Marysville Union County 32 499 25,943 0 <300

McArthur Vinton County 0 8 NA 0 <300

McConnelsville Morgan County 0 6 3,000 0 <300

Medina Medina Municipal 4 634 NA 0 <300

Middle Bass Middle Bass Island 0 0 NA 0 <300

Middlefield Geauga County 0 53 NA 0 <300

Middletown Middletown Regional/Hook Field 102 818 176,000 2 >700

Millersburg Holmes County 61 118 21,100 1 300‐700

Mount Gilead Morrow County 0 56 NA 0 <300

Mount Vernon Knox County 46 407 60,000 1 300‐700

Napoleon Henry County 17 95 5,300 0 <300

New Lexington Perry County 2 21 NA 0 <300

New Philadelphia Harry Clever Field 24 331 20,000 0 <300

Newark Newark‐Heath 262 610 99,540 2 >700

North Bass Island North Bass Island 0 0 NA 0 <300

Norwalk Norwalk‐Huron County 10 126 1,500 0 <300

Ottawa Putnam County 0 250 45,000 0 <300

Oxford Miami University 84 487 20,000 0 300‐700

Piqua Piqua‐Hartzell Field 5 769 32,750 0 <300

Port Clinton Carl R. Keller Field 145 754 44,400 0 300‐700

Portsmouth Greater Portsmouth Regional 88 602 16,000 1 300‐700

Put In Bay Put In Bay 0 160 NA 0 <300

Ravenna Portage County 0 0 NA 1 <300*

Sidney Sidney Municipal 180 484 33,992 3 >700

Springfield Springfield‐Beckley Municipal 412 982 79,379 1 >700*

Steubenville Jefferson County Airpark 16 206 33,950 0 <300

Tiffin Seneca County 8 301 68,000 1 300‐700

Toledo Toledo Express 1,338 3,836 1,843,912 7 >700

Toledo Toledo Executive 59 535 91,000 1 300‐700

Upper Sandusky Wyandot County 0 23 NA 0 <300

Urbana Grimes Field 26 449 22,557 0 <300

Van Wert Van Wert County 0 184 2,250 0 <300

Versailles Darke County 67 171 54,179 1 300‐700

Wadsworth Wadsworth Municipal 2 255 NA 0 <300

Wapakoneta Neil Armstrong 1 281 124,000 5 >700*

Washington Court House Fayette County 8 175 5,000 0 <300

Wauseon Fulton County 0 101 24,970 0 <300

Waverly Pike County 6 38 5,000 0 <300

West Union Alexander Salamon 0 22 NA 0 <300





IFR Total Ops

Jet A Gallons Sold

Based Jets

Jet Ops Range

Willard Willard 0 26 NA 0 <300

Willoughby Willoughby Lost Nation Municipal 218 988 NA 3 >700

Wilmington Wilmington Air Park 108 138 831,521 0 >700*

Wilmington Clinton Field 0 128 NA 0 <300

Woodsfield Monroe County 1 27 NA 1 300‐700

Wooster Wayne County 584 1,005 102,000 5 >700

Youngstown/Warren Youngstown‐Warren Regional 799 2,773 485,632 6 >700

Zanesville Zanesville Municipal 93 445 108,401 2 >700

Source: GCR Airport IQ, CDM Smith *Denotes jet ops category not determined by formula; predetermined based on knowledge of airport

Itisimportanttonotethatseveralairportswereexcludedfromthejetoperationsrangeformulacalculationsduetoanticipatedmisclassificationbasedonspecificattributesofthoseairports.TheseairportsincludePortageCounty,Springfield‐BeckleyMunicipal,NeilArmstrong,andWilmingtonAirPark.PortageCountywasalsoplacedinthe“<300”rangeduetoitslackofIFRjetoperations.Springfield‐BeckleyMunicipalwasupgradedtothe“>700”rangeduetoitshighnumberofIFRjetoperationsand9,000+footrunway.NeilArmstrongwasplacedinthe“>700”rangeasaresultofbeinghometofivebasedjets.WilmingtonAirParkwasalsoupgradedduetoitsD‐IVARCandhistoryofaccommodatingwide‐bodyaircraft.

Whilethisanalysispresentsestimatedjetoperationsforexistingconditions,thelevelsofjetoperationsrangesareexpectedtoremainthesamethroughtheendoftheplanningperiod.Amoredetailedindividualmasterplananalysiswouldberequiredforanyforecastofanairportmovingupordownbetweenranges.

Summary Onastatewidebasis,totalannualcommercialenplanementsatstudyairportsareprojectedtoincreasefrom9,744,937in2012to14,831,030by2032.Airlineoperationsareprojectedtoincreasefrom376,257in2012to482,291in2032.IncreasesincommercialactivityareprojectedtooccuratallOhiocommercialserviceairportsexceptforJamesM.CoxDaytonInternationalandToledoExpress.StatewidegrowthinaircargotonnageisprojectedbytheFAAtoexpandatanaverageannualrateof0.7percentfrom188,000tonsin2012to216,000tonsin2012.Basedgeneralaviationaircraftforallsystemairportsareprojectedtogrowfroma2012levelof4,687to5,182in2032.Totalannualgeneralaviationoperationsforallsystemairportsareprojectedtogrowfromtheir2012levelof2,723,518to2,993,000in2032.Table4‐24presentsasummaryofthestatewidetotalsforeachaviationdemandprojectiontype,includingcommercialairlineenplanements,commercialairlineoperations,basedaircraft,andgeneralaviationoperations.



Table4‐24ForecastSummary

Projection Type 2012 2017 2022 2032

Commercial Service Enplanements 9,744,937 10,916,310 12,076,740 14,831,030

Commercial Airline Operations 376,257 390,417 418,182 482,291

Statewide Total Air Cargo Tons 188,097 194,772 201,686 216,257

Based Aircraft (bottom‐up) 4,687 4,803 4,925 5,182

General Aviation Operations (bottom‐up) 2,723,518 2,786,900 2,853,100 2,993,000

Source: CDM Smith

Theprojectionsdevelopedinthischapterwillbeusedintheevaluationoftheexistingairportsystem'sabilitytoaccommodatefuturedemand.Theprojectionsprovidedinthischapterareconsideredplanningestimatesandarebasedoninformationgatheredfromallavailablesources.Theseprojectionsweregeneratedtoasystemplanning,ratherthanamasterplanning,levelofdetail.Comprehensiveairportdevelopmentplanswillcontinuetoprovideguidanceforactualairportdevelopment;individualairportplansaredevelopedfromanexaminationofeachairport'slocalconditionsandoperatingenvironment.

Documents

Forecast of Aviation Demand · 2015-01-14 · FORECAST OF AVIATION DEMAND 2014 OHIO AIRPORTS FOCUS STUDY 4‐3 Annual Passenger Enplanements Passenger enplanement projections were