FORECAST Modelling Workshop: Agendaweb.forestry.ubc.ca/ecomodels/book/FORECAST Workshop...FORECAST Workshop Day 1 Morning • The need for sustainable forest management (SFM) slide

FORECAST Modelling Workshop: FORECAST Modelling Workshop: AgendaAgenda

Day 1Day 1

•• Introduction to Introduction to

Modelling PhilosophyModelling Philosophy

•• Overview of FORECAST Overview of FORECAST

Structure and FunctionStructure and Function

•• Net Primary Production Net Primary Production

•• Nutrient Cycling / Nutrient Cycling /

DecompositionDecomposition

•• Boreal Mixedwood Boreal Mixedwood

ExampleExample

•• Intro to FORCEE and Intro to FORCEE and

HORIZONHORIZON

•• Intro to User Interface: Intro to User Interface:

FORECAST NavigatorFORECAST Navigator

Day 2Day 2

•• Site QualitySite Quality

•• Natural mortality & Natural mortality &

Individual stem rep.Individual stem rep.

•• Overview of Data Overview of Data

RequirementsRequirements

•• Developing Local Data Developing Local Data

SetsSets

•• Introduction to Data Introduction to Data

Editor Software and Editor Software and

Working with Data FilesWorking with Data Files

•• Using Output from Setup Using Output from Setup

Programs to Verify Programs to Verify

Integrity of Input DataIntegrity of Input Data

Day 3Day 3

•• Importance of Ecosystem Importance of Ecosystem

Starting Condition Starting Condition

•• Editing the Management Editing the Management

Options in Ecodata file Options in Ecodata file

•• Building an Ecostate fileBuilding an Ecostate file

•• Simulating alternative Simulating alternative

management strategies in management strategies in

FORECAST FORECAST

•• HandsHands--on Exampleson Examples

•• Future DevelopmentFuture Development

•• User SupportUser Support

•• Closing DiscussionClosing Discussion

FORECAST Workshop Day 1 FORECAST Workshop Day 1

MorningMorning

•• The need for sustainable forest management (SFM)The need for sustainable forest management (SFM)

slide presentationslide presentation

•• Introduction to FORECAST and the hybrid modelling approachIntroduction to FORECAST and the hybrid modelling approach

management options and outputmanagement options and output

model structure and functionmodel structure and function

•• Simulation Algorithms: Net Primary ProductionSimulation Algorithms: Net Primary Production

model driving functionmodel driving function

general canopy representationgeneral canopy representation

mixedwood canopy representationmixedwood canopy representation

AfternoonAfternoon

•• Simulations Algorithms: Nutrient Cycling / DecompositionSimulations Algorithms: Nutrient Cycling / Decomposition

•• Boreal Mixedwood example Boreal Mixedwood example

•• Introduction to FORCEE and HORIZONIntroduction to FORCEE and HORIZON

•• Introduction to FORECAST NAVIGATOR (user interface)Introduction to FORECAST NAVIGATOR (user interface)


MorningMorning




related modelsrelated models






AfternoonAfternoon





Hybrid Simulation of Forest GrowthHybrid Simulation of Forest Growth

Simulation based on both experience and knowledgeSimulation based on both experience and knowledge

Historical patterns of Historical patterns of

forest growthforest growth

Future growth of the forestFuture growth of the forest

Growth Growth

ProcessesProcesses

Future Future

ConditionsConditions

Will the historical pattern of growth Will the historical pattern of growth

reoccur ?reoccur ?

•• BelievabilityBelievability

•• TransparencyTransparency

ModellingModelling philosophyphilosophy::

FORECASTFORECAST

•• A management oriented, ecosystemA management oriented, ecosystem--level modelling frameworklevel modelling framework

•• SiteSite--specific, speciesspecific, species--specific, and ecosystem conditionspecific, and ecosystem condition--specificspecific

•• Uses the hybrid simulation approach:Uses the hybrid simulation approach:

empirical historical bioassay +empirical historical bioassay + process simulationprocess simulation

•• Modular structure designed to permit the addition or removal of Modular structure designed to permit the addition or removal of

complexity from a simulationcomplexity from a simulation

•• Major focus is the projection of stand development and the Major focus is the projection of stand development and the

assessment of biophysical indicators sustainability under assessment of biophysical indicators sustainability under

alternative stand management strategiesalternative stand management strategies

•• PhotosynthesisPhotosynthesis

•• Nutrient CyclingNutrient Cycling

•• MortalityMortality

•• Biomass accumulationBiomass accumulation

•• Carbon allocationCarbon allocation

•• Organic matter Organic matter

dynamicsdynamics

•• Competition for light Competition for light

and nutrientsand nutrients

•• Various soil processesVarious soil processes

•• Site quality changeSite quality change

General processes represented in General processes represented in

FORECASTFORECAST

•• Site preparationSite preparation

•• Planting / Regeneration*Planting / Regeneration*

•• Weed controlWeed control

•• Stocking controlStocking control

•• PruningPruning

•• Intermediate harvestsIntermediate harvests

•• Final harvestsFinal harvests

•• Utilization levelUtilization level

•• FertilizationFertilization

•• Nurse cropsNurse crops

•• Alternating SpeciesAlternating Species

•• Mixed speciesMixed species

•• Rotation lengthRotation length

•• Seedling size and qualitySeedling size and quality

•• Wildfire / broadcast burnWildfire / broadcast burn

•• Insect defoliationInsect defoliation

•• Wildlife browsingWildlife browsing

•• Organic waste recyclingOrganic waste recycling

•• Partial harvesting / shelterwood*Partial harvesting / shelterwood*

Management Management and other events which mayand other events which may

be simulated with FORECASTbe simulated with FORECAST

FORECAST:FORECAST: Applications & OutputApplications & Output

Potential ApplicationsPotential Applications

-- Exploring alternative standExploring alternative stand--level silvicultural systemslevel silvicultural systems

-- Support for analysis of SFM andSupport for analysis of SFM and CertificationCertification

Analysis of multiple rotationsAnalysis of multiple rotations

Examine management impacts on indicators of sustainabilityExamine management impacts on indicators of sustainability

Economic IndicatorsEconomic Indicators

Value of timberValue of timber

Management costsManagement costs

EmploymentEmployment

Carbon BudgetsCarbon Budgets

Energy BudgetsEnergy Budgets

Growth & YieldGrowth & Yield

Total VolumeTotal Volume

MerchMerch. Volume. Volume

height growthheight growth

Individual stem size Individual stem size

distributionsdistributions

etc.etc.

Biophysical IndicatorsBiophysical Indicators

Species composition Species composition

Site productivitySite productivity

Stand structureStand structure

Soil organic matterSoil organic matter

Snags & CWDSnags & CWD

nutrient statusnutrient status

OutputOutput

Review: Review: Flow of information through the modelFlow of information through the model

…………………………………………………… Contain data describing how trees / plants have grown Contain data describing how trees / plants have grown

the past the past (age series or chronosequence) (age series or chronosequence) for a range of for a range of

site qualitiessite qualities,, litter & humus decomposition, etc.litter & humus decomposition, etc.

Data filesData files

..……………………………………... Summarized information from setup programs defining ... Summarized information from setup programs defining

each specieeach specie’’s growth attributes and ecosystem s growth attributes and ecosystem

processes used in ecosystem simulation moduleprocesses used in ecosystem simulation module

Simulation RulesSimulation Rules

..………………………………... Projects future ecosystem condition based on ... Projects future ecosystem condition based on

simulation rules, Starting condition and Management simulation rules, Starting condition and Management

datadata

Ecosystem Ecosystem

Simulation ModuleSimulation Module

OutputOutput

Management Management

datadata

Starting Starting

conditioncondition

..……………………………………... Derive information about the rates of key ecosystem ... Derive information about the rates of key ecosystem

processes from the end products of processes (input processes from the end products of processes (input

data)data)

Setup ProgramsSetup Programs

Verification Verification

outputoutput

File structure of FORECASTFile structure of FORECAST

TREEDATATREEDATA PLANTDATAPLANTDATA BRYODATABRYODATA SOILDATASOILDATA

BRYOGROWBRYOGROWPLANTGROWPLANTGROWTREEGROWTREEGROW SOILSSOILS

InputInput

filesfiles

ProgramsPrograms

SETUP

SETUP

TREEPLOT PLANTPLOT

TREETRNDTREETRND BYROTRNDBYROTRNDPLANTTRNDPLANTTRND

BRYOPLOTBRYOPLOT SOILPLOTSOILPLOT

SOILTRNDSOILTRND

OutputOutput

filesfiles

ECOSYSTMECOSYSTM

ECODATAECODATA ECOSTATEECOSTATE INITSTATEINITSTATE

ECOSYSTEM

ECOSYSTEMSIMULATION

SIMULATION

ENDSTATEENDSTATE

GRAPHICALGRAPHICAL

OUTPUTOUTPUTTABULARTABULAR

OUTPUTOUTPUT

MGMTMGMT ECOSYSECOSYS ECONOMECONOM ENERGYENERGY CARBONCARBON

OUTPUT ASSESSMENT

OUTPUT ASSESSMENT

Input data files Setup programsGraphing utility

Tabular output utility

Data set file information

Select starting

ecosystem conditions

Define management

activities

Ecosystem simulation

module

Route ending ecosystem

condition to start of

next run

FORECAST:FORECAST: User InterfaceUser Interface

Setup programs: Setup programs: TREEGROW, TREEGROW,

PLANTGROW, BRYOGROWPLANTGROW, BRYOGROW

Primary functionsPrimary functions

Derive information from TREEDATA describing the following growthDerive information from TREEDATA describing the following growth processes: processes:

•• Photosynthetic efficiency of foliage under varying light conditiPhotosynthetic efficiency of foliage under varying light conditionsons

•• Biomass accumulation and allocation to biomass componentsBiomass accumulation and allocation to biomass components

•• Natural mortality Natural mortality (density dependent and independent)(density dependent and independent)

•• Height growthHeight growth

•• Size variation in individual stems Size variation in individual stems (trees only)(trees only)

•• Nutrient cycling Nutrient cycling (uptake requirements, internal cycling, N fixation.)(uptake requirements, internal cycling, N fixation.)

•• Ephemeral litter productionEphemeral litter production

•• Light interception Light interception

For each species and site quality included in TREEDATAFor each species and site quality included in TREEDATA

Setup programs: Setup programs: SOILSSOILS


Derive information from SOILDATA describing the following soil pDerive information from SOILDATA describing the following soil processes: rocesses:

•• Mass loss rates for litter types generated in plant setup prograMass loss rates for litter types generated in plant setup programsms

•• Patterns of change in nutrient concentration in litter types durPatterns of change in nutrient concentration in litter types during ing

decompositiondecomposition

•• Information regarding humus formation Information regarding humus formation

•• Humus chemistry and mass loss ratesHumus chemistry and mass loss rates

•• Rates of mineralization and immobilization for each litter typeRates of mineralization and immobilization for each litter type

•• CEC and AEC in mineral soil and soil organic matterCEC and AEC in mineral soil and soil organic matter

•• Rates of nutrient inputs from geochemical cycleRates of nutrient inputs from geochemical cycle

•• N fixation N fixation (non(non--symbiotic)symbiotic)

Defining stand management Defining stand management activitesactivites: : Ecodata fileEcodata file


Controls the timing and specifics of management activities and oControls the timing and specifics of management activities and or disturbance r disturbance

events to be simulated in ESMevents to be simulated in ESM

•• Site preparationSite preparation

•• Planting / Regeneration*Planting / Regeneration*

•• Weed controlWeed control

•• Stocking controlStocking control

•• PruningPruning

•• Intermediate harvestsIntermediate harvests

•• Final harvestsFinal harvests

•• Utilization levelUtilization level

•• FertilizationFertilization

•• Nurse cropsNurse crops

•• Alternating SpeciesAlternating Species

•• Mixed speciesMixed species

•• Rotation lengthRotation length

•• Seedling size and qualitySeedling size and quality

•• Wildfire / broadcast burnWildfire / broadcast burn

•• Insect defoliationInsect defoliation

•• Wildlife browsingWildlife browsing

•• Windthrow*Windthrow*

•• Organic waste recyclingOrganic waste recycling

•• Partial harvesting / shelterwood*Partial harvesting / shelterwood*

Ecosystem starting condition: Ecosystem starting condition: ECOSTATE fileECOSTATE file


Provide information about to starting condition to Ecosystem SimProvide information about to starting condition to Ecosystem Simulation Module ulation Module

•• Organic Matter on site (type, quantity, decomposition state)Organic Matter on site (type, quantity, decomposition state)

•• CWD and Snags (type, quantity, decomposition state)CWD and Snags (type, quantity, decomposition state)

•• Available soil nutrients in year 1Available soil nutrients in year 1

•• Permanent site attributes (moisture status, geochemical nutrientPermanent site attributes (moisture status, geochemical nutrient

inputs) inputs)

•• Tree, plant, and bryophyte populations (species, age, density, eTree, plant, and bryophyte populations (species, age, density, etc.)tc.)

Ecosystem simulation: Ecosystem simulation: Ecosystem Simulation Ecosystem Simulation

Module (ESM)Module (ESM)


Project future ecosystem condition by linking model components iProject future ecosystem condition by linking model components in a dynamic system n a dynamic system

•• Plant competition for light and nutrientsPlant competition for light and nutrients

•• Natural MortalityNatural Mortality

•• Individual stem size variationIndividual stem size variation

•• StandStand--level nutrient dynamicslevel nutrient dynamics

•• Site quality changesSite quality changes

•• Ecosystem response to management activities Ecosystem response to management activities

and disturbance eventsand disturbance events

•• Soil organic matter dynamicsSoil organic matter dynamics

•• CWD and SnagsCWD and Snags

NET NET

PRIMARYPRIMARY

PRODUCTIONPRODUCTION

ALLOCATIONALLOCATION

ROOTSROOTS STEMSSTEMS FOLIAGEFOLIAGE

PHOTOSYNTHETICPHOTOSYNTHETIC

EFFICIENCYEFFICIENCY

FOLIAGEFOLIAGE

NITROGENNITROGEN

CONTENTCONTENT

Core ecosystem Core ecosystem

processes represented processes represented

in FORECAST ESM in FORECAST ESM

1. Plant growth and 1. Plant growth and

carbon allocationcarbon allocation

AVAILABLEAVAILABLE

SOILSOIL

NUTRIENTSNUTRIENTS

3. Nutrient limitation3. Nutrient limitation

AVAILABLEAVAILABLE

SOILSOIL

MOISTUREMOISTURE

MaximumMaximum

potential foliagepotential foliage

biomass setbiomass set

by moistureby moisture

4. Moisture limitation4. Moisture limitation

5. Competition for 5. Competition for

resourcesresources

2. Light limitation 2. Light limitation

AVAILABLEAVAILABLE

LIGHTLIGHT


MorningMorning










AfternoonAfternoon





Simulation Algorithms: Simulation Algorithms: Net Primary ProductionNet Primary Production



TREEPLOT PLANTPLOT



SOILTRNDSOILTRND

ECOSYSTMECOSYSTM


ENDSTATEENDSTATE

1. Calculations in TREEGROW1. Calculations in TREEGROW

2. Calculations in ESM2. Calculations in ESM


1. Calculations in TREEGROW1. Calculations in TREEGROW

1.1 Derive Annual Total Net Primary Production (TNPP) from TREED1.1 Derive Annual Total Net Primary Production (TNPP) from TREEDATAATA

1.2 Estimate foliar N content associated with annual TNPP1.2 Estimate foliar N content associated with annual TNPP

1.3 Calculate foliar N efficiency1.3 Calculate foliar N efficiency

1.4 Simulate degree of self1.4 Simulate degree of self--shading of foliage shading of foliage

1.5 Calculate shade1.5 Calculate shade--corrected foliar N contentcorrected foliar N content

1.6 Calculate shade1.6 Calculate shade--corrected foliar N efficiency (model driving function)corrected foliar N efficiency (model driving function)


1.1 Derive Annual Total Net Primary Production (TNPP) from TREED1.1 Derive Annual Total Net Primary Production (TNPP) from TREEDATAATA

Ephemeral Ephemeral litterfalllitterfalltt = sum of the mass of all ephemeral tissues = sum of the mass of all ephemeral tissues

that are lost in time step tthat are lost in time step t

MortalityMortalitytt = the mass of individual trees that die in time step t= the mass of individual trees that die in time step t

•• Annual TNPP Calculated for Annual TNPP Calculated for

each species on each site each species on each site

qualityquality

TNPPTNPPtt = = BiomassBiomasstt + Ephemeral + Ephemeral litterfalllitterfalltt + + MortalityMortalitytt

wherewhere::BiomassBiomasstt = sum of the change in mass of all biomass = sum of the change in mass of all biomass

components of a particular species at time tcomponents of a particular species at time t

•• Annual total stand biomass Annual total stand biomass

interpolated from a series of interpolated from a series of

stands in a age sequence.stands in a age sequence.

Total Stand Biomass

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Stand Age

T ha -1

Poor

Med

Good


•• Foliage N concentration Foliage N concentration

provided for young and old provided for young and old

foliagefoliage

FNFNtt = = FoliageFoliage BiomassBiomasstt * Foliar N conc.* Foliar N conc.

•• Annual stand foliage biomass Annual stand foliage biomass

interpolated from a series of stands interpolated from a series of stands

in a age sequence.in a age sequence.

1.2 Estimate foliar N content associated with annual 1.2 Estimate foliar N content associated with annual TNPPTNPPtt

Stand Foliage Biomass

0

3

6

9

12

15

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Stand Age

T ha -1

Poor

Med

Good

TNPPTNPPtt+1+1 = = FNEFNEtt * * FNFNt t

Driving Function?Driving Function?

FNE varies as a function of foliage biomass

due to self-shading and is therefore

unsuitable as a driving function.

1.3 Calculate foliar N efficiency1.3 Calculate foliar N efficiency FNEFNEtt == TNPPTNPPtt // FNFNtt

Relationship between maximum N productivity and foliage Relationship between maximum N productivity and foliage

biomass: Interior Alaskabiomass: Interior Alaska ((Yarie Yarie 1997)1997)

0

50

100

150

200

0 1000 2000 3000 4000

Foliage Biomass (g/m2)

Maximum N Productivity

(g production / g foliar N)

AspenBirchPoplarSpruceAll


1.4 Simulate degree of self1.4 Simulate degree of self--shading of foliage in single species standsshading of foliage in single species stands

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100

Relative foliage biomass (% of max)

Relative shading (% of max)

ActualActual

CanopyCanopy

Simulated CanopySimulated Canopy

m height intervalsm height intervals11//44

Canopy Representation in TREEGROW Canopy Representation in TREEGROW


1.5 Calculate shade1.5 Calculate shade--corrected foliar N content (SCFN)corrected foliar N content (SCFN)

ActualActual

CanopyCanopy



0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100

Relative light (% of above canopy light)

Photosynthetic rate (% of max Psn)

Sun foliage

Shade foliage

PLSC’s for foliage

Where:Where:

FN FN ii = Total Foliar N in canopy layer i (kg ha= Total Foliar N in canopy layer i (kg ha--11))

PLSC PLSC ii = Photosynthetic light saturation curve = Photosynthetic light saturation curve

value for canopy layer ivalue for canopy layer i

SCFN = ShadeSCFN = Shade--corrected foliar nitrogen content corrected foliar nitrogen content

(kg ha(kg ha--11))

FN1 * PLSC1

FN2 * PLSC2

FNn * PLSCn

•••

SCFN PLSC *FN i

1

i =∑=

=

ni

i

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 20 40 60 80

Stand Age (Yr)

Foliar N content (Kg ha-1)

FN

SCFN

An Example of Total Foliar N (FN) vs. Shade-Corrected

Foliar N (SCFN) During Stand Development


1.6 Calculate shade1.6 Calculate shade--corrected foliar N efficiency corrected foliar N efficiency (SCFNE)(SCFNE)

SCFNESCFNEKg productionKg production

Kg SCFNKg SCFN

Stand AgeStand Age

Early peak due to high ratio of Early peak due to high ratio of

productive to respiring tissueproductive to respiring tissue

TNPPTNPPttSCFNSCFNtt

SCFNESCFNEtt ==

APGAPGtt+1+1 = = SCFNESCFNEt t * * SCFNSCFNtt

where:where:

APGAPGtt+1+1 = Annual potential growth for a given species in the = Annual potential growth for a given species in the

next time step (t+1)next time step (t+1)

Model Driving Function:Model Driving Function:


2. Calculations in Ecosystem Simulation Module2. Calculations in Ecosystem Simulation Module

2.1 Simulate light profile and shading to each canopy layer2.1 Simulate light profile and shading to each canopy layer

2.2 Adjust for mixedwood canopies using view angle approach2.2 Adjust for mixedwood canopies using view angle approach

2.3 Calculate SCFN for each species2.3 Calculate SCFN for each species

2.4 Calculate Annual Potential Growth for each species2.4 Calculate Annual Potential Growth for each species


2.2 Adjust for mixedwood canopies using view angle approach2.2 Adjust for mixedwood canopies using view angle approach

2.1 Calculate light profile and shading to each canopy layer2.1 Calculate light profile and shading to each canopy layer

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100

Relative foliage biomass (% of max)

Relative shading (% of max)

ActualActual

CanopyCanopy



A A AB B

A A A

B B

Mixed species canopy representation

1/4 m

0 100

Shading of B by A (%)

0 100

Shading of A by B (%)

0 100


1/4 m

0 100


Mixed species canopy representation

A A A

B B

0 100


1/4 m

0 100


A A A

B B

1/4 m

0 100


0 100


A A A

B B

Distance between

trees (A)

1. Calculate avg. distance between trees of

species A from stand density (stem ha-1)

Ht

difference

A-B

2. Calculate height difference between

species A & B

b

4. Calculate the view angle (b) for species

B: b = (180-2a)View Angle

3. Calculate angle (a) subtended between

tops of A & B trees and the horizontal

aa

Distance between trees (A)1/2

5. Calculate the relative shading (rs) at top

of B by A (%) : rs = (180-2a)/180 * 100

Use of view angle to determine the level of shading

at the top of B by A


2.3 Calculate SCFN for each species 2.3 Calculate SCFN for each species

•• Determine adjusted shading for each Determine adjusted shading for each

canopy layer for each speciescanopy layer for each species



0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100

Relative light (% of above canopy light)

Photosynthetic rate (% of max Psn)

Sun foliage

Shade foliage

PLSC’s for foliage

•• Calculate PLSC value for each canopy Calculate PLSC value for each canopy

layer for each species (sun or shade)layer for each species (sun or shade)

Where:Where:

FN FN ii = Total Foliar N in canopy layer i (kg ha= Total Foliar N in canopy layer i (kg ha--11))

PLSC PLSC ii = Photosynthetic light saturation curve = Photosynthetic light saturation curve

value for canopy layer ivalue for canopy layer i

SCFN = ShadeSCFN = Shade--corrected foliar nitrogen content corrected foliar nitrogen content

(kg ha(kg ha--11))

FN1 * PLSC1

FN2 * PLSC2

FNn * PLSCn

•••

SCFN PLSC *FN i

1

i =∑=

=

ni

i

•• Calculate SCFN for each speciesCalculate SCFN for each species


MorningMorning










AfternoonAfternoon





Simulation Algorithms: Simulation Algorithms: Nutrient cyclingNutrient cycling

and its control of net primary productionand its control of net primary production

2.4 Calculate Annual Potential Growth 2.4 Calculate Annual Potential Growth (APG)(APG) for each speciesfor each species

APGAPGtt+1+1 = = SCFNESCFNEt t * * SCFNSCFNttModel Driving Function:Model Driving Function:

•• Determine quantity of nutrients required to achieve Determine quantity of nutrients required to achieve APGAPGtt+1+1

•• Go to Go to Nutrient Cycling RoutineNutrient Cycling Routine to determine of required nutrients are available to determine of required nutrients are available

Nutrient Cycling in FORECAST

A. Based on a mass

balance approach

Plant

Biomass

Available

Soil

Nutrients

Litter and Soil Organic Matter

B. Nutrients exist in 3 main

ecosystem pools

Fire

Soil

Leaching

Loss

Loss

Upslope

Seepage

Mineral

Weathering

Input

Input

Precipitation

Inputs

Input

1. 1. Geochemical Geochemical

cyclecycle

C. Transfers between pools

Nutrient

Uptake

Internal

Cycling

Foliar

Leaching

Natural

Mortality

Litterfall

Herbivory

Decomposition

Biological

N Fixation2

Input

2. Biological cycle2. Biological cycle

Loss

Harvest

Site Prep

Loss

Fertilizer

Inputs Input

3. Management activities3. Management activities

Available Soil Nutrient PoolAvailable Soil Nutrient Pool

•• Permits available nutrients to be stored from Permits available nutrients to be stored from

one time step to the nextone time step to the next

•• Pool size regulated by dataPool size regulated by data--defined CEC and defined CEC and

AEC for mineral soil and soil organic matterAEC for mineral soil and soil organic matter

•• Ratio of Ratio of Cations Cations to Anions can be linked to to Anions can be linked to

site qualitysite quality

•• Excess nutrients leached from soil (includes Excess nutrients leached from soil (includes

denitrification denitrification for NOfor NO33--))

Simulation Algorithms: Simulation Algorithms: Nutrient CyclingNutrient Cycling



TREEPLOT PLANTPLOT



SOILTRNDSOILTRND

ECOSYSTMECOSYSTM


ENDSTATEENDSTATE

1. Calculations in SOILS1. Calculations in SOILS


Decomposition in FORECASTDecomposition in FORECAST

A. Each biomass

component is assigned

to a litter type

B. Litter cohorts simulated

based on:

1. Time to become humus

2

3

Rate of

Min. &

Immob.

Litter HumusTime

0

M

I

Initial Mass

Remaining

100%

0Litter HumusTime

2. Mass loss data

Nutrient

Conc. in

Litter Cohort

Litter HumusTime

.

.

1

3. Nutrient concentration

data

C. Mineralization and

Immobilization

Nutrient

Content in

Litter Cohort

Litter HumusTime

Initial amount

in litter cohort

Mineralization

Microbial

Immobilization



2.1 Simulate annual transfer of nutrients between 3 main nutrien2.1 Simulate annual transfer of nutrients between 3 main nutrient poolst pools

2.2 Calculate uptake demand for each species2.2 Calculate uptake demand for each species

2.3 Determine accessibility of nutrients to each species2.3 Determine accessibility of nutrients to each species

2.4 Calculate actual soil uptake for each species 2.4 Calculate actual soil uptake for each species

2.5 Determine nutrient limited growth 2.5 Determine nutrient limited growth

2.6 Allocate new growth to biomass components2.6 Allocate new growth to biomass components


2.1 Simulate annual transfer 2.1 Simulate annual transfer

of nutrients between 3 of nutrients between 3

main nutrient poolsmain nutrient pools

Plant

Biomass

Available

Soil

Nutrients

Litter and Soil Organic Matter

1. Inputs from geochemical cycle1. Inputs from geochemical cycleUpslope

Seepage

Mineral

Weathering

Input

Input

Precipitation

Inputs

Input

Order of eventsOrder of events

Biological

N Fixation2

Input

Internal

Cycling

Foliar

Leaching

Fertilizer

Inputs Input

2. Internal cycling, foliar leaching, 2. Internal cycling, foliar leaching,

N fixation and fertilizer inputsN fixation and fertilizer inputs

Herbivory

Litterfall

3. Litterfall and herbivory3. Litterfall and herbivory

Decomposition

4. Decomposition4. Decomposition

Nutrient

Uptake

5. Plant uptake, growth and 5. Plant uptake, growth and

allocation allocation

Natural

Mortality

7. Natural mortality and soil 7. Natural mortality and soil

leachingleaching

Soil

Leaching

Loss

Loss

LossHarvest

Site Prep

Loss

Fire

6. Harvest, fire, site prep losses6. Harvest, fire, site prep losses


2.2 Calculate uptake demand for each species2.2 Calculate uptake demand for each species

UDUDii = annual uptake demand for species i (kg ha= annual uptake demand for species i (kg ha--11),),

APGAPGii = annual potential growth for species i (kg ha= annual potential growth for species i (kg ha--11),),

ECECii = average expected nutrient concentration for new biomass of sp= average expected nutrient concentration for new biomass of species ecies

i (%),i (%),

ICICii = annual net nutrient gain from internal cycling for species i = annual net nutrient gain from internal cycling for species i (kg ha(kg ha--11),),

CUCUii = annual direct canopy uptake from precipitation or throughfall= annual direct canopy uptake from precipitation or throughfall for for

species i (kg haspecies i (kg ha--11),),

L L ii= total annual foliar leaching from species i (kg ha= total annual foliar leaching from species i (kg ha--11).).

UDUDii = (= (APGAPGii xx ECECii) ) -- ((ICICii ++ CUCUii) + L) + Lii

where:where:


2.3 Determine accessibility of nutrients to each species2.3 Determine accessibility of nutrients to each species

NAPNAPii = TAN x = TAN x ROROii

ROROii == FRBFRBii//MFRBMFRBii

where:where:

NAPNAPii = quantity of available nutrients accessible to species i (kg h= quantity of available nutrients accessible to species i (kg haa--11),),

TAN = total size of the available nutrient pool in the current tTAN = total size of the available nutrient pool in the current time step ime step

(kg ha(kg ha--11),),

ROROii = root occupancy of soil by species i (%)= root occupancy of soil by species i (%)

FRBFRBii = the fine root biomass of species i for the current time step = the fine root biomass of species i for the current time step (kg (kg

haha--11),),

MFRBMFRBii = the maximum fine root biomass for species i on a given site = the maximum fine root biomass for species i on a given site

quality (kg haquality (kg ha--11).).


2.4 Calculate actual soil uptake for each species2.4 Calculate actual soil uptake for each species

where:where:

AUAUii = annual actual nutrient uptake for species i (kg ha= annual actual nutrient uptake for species i (kg ha--11),),

UDUDii = annual uptake demand for species i (kg ha= annual uptake demand for species i (kg ha--11),),

NAPNAPii = quantity of available nutrients accessible to species i (kg h= quantity of available nutrients accessible to species i (kg haa--11),),

UDUDtotaltotal = annual total uptake demand for all species (kg ha= annual total uptake demand for all species (kg ha--11).).

AUAUii = min (= min (UDUDii, , NAPNAPii) )

AUAUii = min = min UDUDii

UDUDtotatota

ll

,, NAPNAPii

Case 1: Case 1: UDUDtotaltotal < Total available nutrients< Total available nutrients

Case 2: Case 2: UDUDtotaltotal > Total available nutrients> Total available nutrients


2.5 Determine nutrient limited growth for Species i2.5 Determine nutrient limited growth for Species i

2.6 Allocate new growth to biomass components2.6 Allocate new growth to biomass components

Nutrient limited Nutrient limited growthgrowthii = = APGAPGii * * AUAUii

UDUDii

•• New growth is allocated to biomass components New growth is allocated to biomass components

according to ratios calculated in TREEGROWaccording to ratios calculated in TREEGROW

•• Ratios are age specific and site quality specificRatios are age specific and site quality specific


MorningMorning










AfternoonAfternoon





480

500

520

540

560

580

600

620

640

660

680

30 Yrs 40 Yrs 60 Yrs 80 Yrs

Rotation Length

Harvested Stemwood Biomass (T ha-1)

Simulation Example: Boreal MixedwoodSimulation Example: Boreal Mixedwood

Mesic Mesic White Spruce & AspenWhite Spruce & Aspen

240240--Yr time periodYr time period

Testing the effect of rotation Testing the effect of rotation

length in monocultures on length in monocultures on

stemwoodstemwood biomass biomass

productionproduction

AspenAspen

•• Natural regenerationNatural regeneration

•• 10k stems ha10k stems ha--1 at yr 11 at yr 1

•• Cumulative BiomassCumulative Biomass

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

60 Yrs 80 Yrs 120 Yrs 240 Yrs

Rotation Length

Harvested Stemwood Biomass (T ha-1)

Simulation Results: Boreal MixedwoodSimulation Results: Boreal Mixedwood



Testing the effect of rotation Testing the effect of rotation

length in monocultures on length in monocultures on



SpruceSpruce

•• PlantedPlanted

•• 1600 stems ha1600 stems ha--1 at 1 at

yr 1yr 1

•• Cumulative BiomassCumulative Biomass

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 25 40 60 80

Year of Aspen Removal

Stemwood Biomass (T ha-1)

Aspen

Spruce

Simulation Results: Boreal MixedwoodSimulation Results: Boreal Mixedwood



Testing the effect of Testing the effect of 2 pass2 pass

mixedwood mixedwood silviculture silviculture on on



Spruce + AspenSpruce + Aspen

•• Spruce planted at 1600 Spruce planted at 1600

stems hastems ha--1 at yr 11 at yr 1

•• harvested at yr 120harvested at yr 120

•• Aspen regenerating Aspen regenerating

10k stems ha10k stems ha--1 at yr 1 1 at yr 1

•• Aspen harvested at Aspen harvested at

at different timesat different times

2 Pass Mixedwood simulation results. Aspen 2 Pass Mixedwood simulation results. Aspen

harvested at yr 40: harvested at yr 40: Light competitionLight competition

2 Pass Mixedwood simulation results. Aspen 2 Pass Mixedwood simulation results. Aspen

harvested at yr 40: harvested at yr 40: Available SoilAvailable Soil Nutrients Nutrients

Spruce Monoculture simulation results. 80Spruce Monoculture simulation results. 80--yr yr

rotations: rotations: Indicators of SustainabilityIndicators of Sustainability


MorningMorning










AfternoonAfternoon






MorningMorning










AfternoonAfternoon





Documents

FORECAST Modelling Workshop: Agendaweb.forestry.ubc.ca/ecomodels/book/FORECAST Workshop...FORECAST Workshop Day 1 Morning • The need for sustainable forest management (SFM) slide