Forecast 2012 Issue 2

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Forecast 2012 ISSUE 2


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Forecast

Tourism Forecasting Committee

2012 Issue 2


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Authors

Tourism Research Australia: Tim Quinn, Dr George Chen, Dr Ben Pang

Other Contributors

Tourism Forecasting Committee, Tourism Forecasting Committee Technical Committee, industry sources(various)

ISBN 978-1-922106-00-1

Tourism Research Australia

Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism

GPO Box 1564

Canberra ACT 2601

ABN 46 252 861 927

Email:[email protected]

Web: www.ret.gov.au/tra

Image: Hot air balloons, Victoria

Courtesy of Global Ballooning

Publication date: October 2012

This work is licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence. To theextent that copyright subsists in third party quotes and diagrams it remains with theoriginal owner and permission may be required to reuse the material.

This work should be attributed as Tourism Forecasting Committee, Forecast 2012 Issue 2, Tourism ResearchAustralia, Canberra.

Enquiries regarding the licence and any use of work by Tourism Research Australia are welcome [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.ret.gov.au/trahttp://www.ret.gov.au/trahttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/deed.enhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/deed.enhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/deed.enmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/deed.enhttp://www.ret.gov.au/tramailto:[email protected]


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Contents

Background ............................................................................................................................................ iv

Methodology ........................................................................................................................................... v

Executive summary ................................................................................................................................ 1

Drivers of tourism forecasts .................................................................................................................... 4

Comparison of 2011-12 tourism forecasts with actual visitation ..................................................... 7

The TFCs long-term forecasting performance....................................................................................... 8

Domestic and outbound tourism forecasts ............................................................................................. 9

Inbound tourism forecasts .................................................................................................................... 12

Tables

Table 1 TFC Forecast summary ...................................................................................................... 2

Table 2 Domestic tourism .............................................................................................................. 14

Table 3 Domestic visitor nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses and serviced apartments ............ 15

Table 4 Short-term resident departures by market, financial year ................................................. 16

Table 5 International visitor arrivals by market, financial year ....................................................... 17

Table 6 International visitor arrivals by purpose of visit, financial year .......................................... 18Table 7 International leisure visitor arrivals by market, financial year ........................................... 19

Table 8 International visitor nights by market, financial year ......................................................... 20

Table 9 International visitor nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses & serviced apartments

by market, financial year ................................................................................................... 21

Table 10 International leisure visitor nights by market, financial year ............................................. 22

Table 11 Total inbound tourism expenditure by market, financial year

(real, base = Quarter 2 2012, $ million) ............................................................................ 23

Table 12 Total leisure inbound tourism expenditure by market, financial year

(real, base = Quarter 2 2012, $ million) ............................................................................ 24

Figures

Figure 1 Domestic visitor nights total: forecast comparison.............................................................. 9

Figure 2 Outbound trips total: forecast comparison ........................................................................ 11

Figure 3 Inbound trips total: forecast comparison ........................................................................... 12


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Background

Tourism Forecasting Committee (TFC)

The TFC was established in 2004 following the implementation of the Tourism White Paper.

Like its predecessor, the Tourism Forecasting Council, the TFC is an independent body

charged with providing present and potential tourism investors, industry and government

with consensus forecasts of activity across international, domestic and outbound tourism

sectors. Tourism Research Australia (TRA) provides modelling, analytical, and secretariat

support for the TFC.

Chaired by Bernard Salt (KPMG), the TFC's membership draws on the combined expertise

of the private and public sectors in the tourism and financial industries. The TFC is

supported by a technical committee that also has a mixture of private and public sector

representation and relevant experience to inform decision making.

The Tourism Forecasting Committee

Bernard Salt (Chair) KPMG

Andrew McEvoy Tourism Australia

Daniel Gschwind Queensland Tourism Industry Council

John Lee Tourism & Transport Forum

Ivan Colhoun ANZ Bank

Jane Madden Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism

Felicia Mariani Australian Tourism Export Council

CEO, Tourism Queensland (tbc) Australian Standing Committee on Tourism

Tony Webber Webber Quantitative Consulting

Leo Jago Tourism Research Australia

The Tourism Forecasting Committee Technical Committee

Leo Jago (Chair) Tourism Research Australia

Adele Labine-Romain Tourism & Transport Forum

Ernst Krolke Airport Coordination Australia

Jeff Oughton Economic Consultant

Karen Wales Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels

Nell Anderson Tourism Australia

Robert Boyd Virgin Australia

Karen McGuigan Department of Immigration and Citizenship

Tim Quinn Tourism Research Australia

George Chen Tourism Research Australia

Ben Pang Tourism Research Australia


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MethodologyForecasting process

The TFC forecasts represent the most likely outcome given past trends, current informationand the impact of policy and industry changes. Therefore, it is important to note that the TFCproduces forecasts as distinct from targets where the latter are developed forthe purposesof business planning and performance management. The TFC forecasts for domestic,outbound and inbound travel volumes and expenditures are developed using an iterativeprocess.

The first iteration involves the TRA Forecasting Unit to estimate activity and expenditureusing a combination of econometric and time series models. These models provide forecastsbased on aviation capacity, price, income and seasonality as well as significant eventsaffecting source markets.

The second iteration involves a sub-committee (the TFC Technical Committee) made up ofsenior researchers and economists as well as independent advisors reviewing themodel-based forecasts and applying qualitative adjustments.

The final iteration involves industry and government experts (the TFC) adjusting theforecasts by consensus.

Methodological changes

TRA has undertaken a major methodological review of its National Visitor Survey (NVS) andInternational Visitor Survey (IVS). The review has resulted in changes to many tourismregion boundaries and the reweighting of individual categories (notably education andemployment). The revisions have led to the re-estimation of the historical data on totalexpenditure (IVS and NVS combined) and changes across inbound expenditure anddomestic expenditure. The methodological review has also resulted in significant upwardrevisions to the base of domestic volumes and expenditure.

Due to these methodological changes and in line with adjustment of historical data, from thisforecasting round and onwards, Total Domestic Economic Value (TDEV), Total Inbound

Economic Value (TIEV) and Total Tourism Consumption have been replaced by TotalDomestic Tourism Expenditure (TDTE), Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure (TITE) andTotal Tourism Expenditurerespectively.

The TDTE and TITE expenditure series, historical and forecast, are consistent in scope withTRAs: i) IVS total trip expenditure series which includes prepaid international airfare andpackage; and; ii) the NVS expenditure series total trip expenditure excluding motor vehicles.


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Forecasts purpose classification

The definition of 'holiday' travel for inbound and outbound forecasts series was updated inForecast 2012, Issue 1. Previously, travel reported as 'other', 'transit' or 'not stated' wasincluded as components of holiday. Based on detailed analysis, travel reported as 'other'and 'transit' is now combined with education and employment in a broader 'other' purposecategory. 'Not stated' travel is included in inbound and outbound totals only (i.e. it is notcategorised to a specific purpose category such as holiday or distributed across purposecategories). As a result, inbound and outbound historical estimates and forecasts for'holiday' (and leisure) in the following editions of the forecasts will appear lower, andequivalent figures for 'other' travel will appear higher than in previous forecast issues.

The definition of 'holiday' travel in the domestic forecast series has also been revisedit has

been extended to include nights spent away on long trips where the purpose of visit to eachstopover is not established. Previously, these visitor nights had been classified as 'other' butexamination has determined that this is predominantly holiday travel. As a result, historicalestimates and forecasts for 'holiday' in this edition of the forecasts will appear slightly higherand those for 'other' will appear slightly lower than in previous forecast issues.

Forecasts by inbound market

Forecast 2011, Issue 2 outlined the rationalisation for the number of inbound markets forwhich forecasts are produced. Reflecting this, Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland and Nordiccountries have been folded into 'Other Europe' and Taiwan into 'Other Asia' in this edition ofthe forecasts. This has enabled greater focus to be put into ensuring the robustness of

forecasts for the leading inbound markets.

Main data sources

Asia-Pacific Consensus Forecasts (2012) August Issue, Consensus Economics Inc

Australian Bureau of Statistics, various statistical publications

Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE)

- Domestic airline activity June 2012

- International airline activity June 2012

Commonwealth Treasury

- Budget Paper No. 1, Statement 2: Economic Outlook, various issues

- Mid- year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, various issues

Consensus Forecasts (2012) August Issue, Consensus Economics Inc

Deloitte Access Economics (2012) Tourism and Hotel Market Outlook, Q2, 2012, Canberra


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Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism (2009) National Long-Term Tourism

Strategy, Canberra

Ewing, R Gruen D and Hawkins J (2005) Forecasting the Macroeconomy,

Economic Roundup, Autumn issue, the Commonwealth Treasury, Canberra

Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts (2012), August Issue, Consensus Economics Inc

Hawkins J. (2005) Economic Forecasting: History and Procedures, Economic Roundup,

Autumn issue, the Commonwealth Treasury, Canberra

Tourism Forecasting Committee (TFC), Forecast, various issues, Tourism Research

Australia, Canberra

Tourism Research Australia (TRA)

- International Visitors in Australia: June 2012 Quarterly Results of the International

Visitor Survey

- Travel by Australians June 2012 Quarterly Results of the National Visitor Survey

- State of the Industry 2011

- Tourism Investment Monitor 2012


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Executive summaryThe world economy has continued to struggle on a slow track since the release of the lastforecast issue in April 2012. Unevenness in global economic activity remains. Growth inemerging economies such as China and India continues to occur at a faster rate thanadvanced economies. However, uncertainty about the sustainability of the economic growthremains as both economies have slowed down. There are encouraging signs that prospectsfor the US economy have improved, but concerns regarding the Euro zone debt crisis haveled to significant market volatility and declines in business and consumer confidence.

Reflecting the current uncertainty, economic growth forecasts have been revised downwardfor many economies worldwide for 2012 and 2013.

For Australia, the domestic economy remains solid compared with those of many developedcountries across the world but unevenness in economic activity remains. The resourcessector continues to grow while manufacturing and many service industries (includingtourism) struggle due to the continued global uncertainty and a high exchange rate.

Against this background, marginal changes have been made to the previous (April 2012) setof forecasts for inbound tourists and outbound departures in this updating round. However,forecasts for domestic tourism have been revised upward. Over the longer term, averageannual growth for domestic visitor nights (0.8 per cent) now fall marginally below populationgrowth, whereas previous forecasts (0.5 per cent) were almost half that of population growth.

Key messages (refer Table 1)

Total Domestic Tourism Expenditure (TDTE)1 and Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure(TITE) will grow at different speedsin the short term

With strong growth in domestic day travel and resilience in overnight travel, totaldomestic tourism expenditure (which captures expenditure from each of thesesegments) is forecast to increase by 1.8 per cent to $70 billion in 201213, and by afurther 1.2 per cent to $71 billion in 201314.

Total inbound tourism expenditure is expected to increase 2.8 per cent to $28 billion in

201213, and then by 4.0 per cent to $29 billion in 201314.

In the longer term, domestic expenditure is now expected to record average annualgrowth of 0.7 per cent to reach $74 billion by 202122. Inbound expenditure is forecastto grow at the faster average annual rate of 3.8 per cent, to reach $39 billion in2021-22.

1The measures of total tourism expenditure, total domestic expenditure and total inbound expenditure are presented in realterms in this publication. As a result, all historical estimates and forecasts to 202122 are shown in June 2012 dollars. To

enable comparison of growth rates, forecasts from Forecast 2012, Issue 1 have been adjusted to report on a financial year

basis.


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Total tourism expenditure is forecast to increase by 2.1 per cent to $97 billion in

2012-13, and then by a further 2.0 per cent to $99 billion in 201314.

In the longer term, total tourism expenditure is forecast to reach $112 billion in 202122underpinned by average annual growth of 1.6 per cent.

Table 1 TFC Forecast summary

Domestic visitor nights to grow moderatelyin the short and medium term

Domestic visitor nights are forecast to increase by 2.1 per cent to 290 million in2012-13, and then by a further 1.4 per cent to 294 million in 201314. This representsan upward revision from the growth previously forecast (0.7 per cent and 0.6 per centfor 201213 and 201314, respectively). The brighter short-term outlook is linked tostronger than previously expected growth in the business and visiting friends andrelatives (VFR) sectors.

The longer-term average annual rate of growth has also been revised up from0.5 per cent to 0.8 per cent. Domestic visitor nights are now forecast to reach308 million by 202122.

Inbound Change on Dom es tic Change on Outbound Change on TITEa Change on TDTEb Change on Expenditurec Change on

visitor previous visitor previous depart. previous (real) previous (real) previous (real) previous

arrivals year nights year year year year year

'000 per cent million per cent '000 per cent $billion per cent $billion per cent $billion per cent

2000-01 5 031 n.a. 291.6 n.a. 3 577 n.a. 28.6 n.a. 69.4 n.a. 98.0 n.a.

2001-02 4 768 - 5.2 288.7 - 1.0 3 368 - 5.9 27.7 - 3.4 66.4 - 4.2 94.1 - 4.02002-03 4 656 - 2.4 302.3 4.7 3 293 - 2.2 25.8 - 6.6 68.4 2.9 94.2 0.12003-04 5 057 8.6 295.9 - 2.1 3 937 19.5 25.7 - 0.4 64.9 - 5.0 90.7 - 3.7

2004-05 5 408 6.9 289.7 - 2.1 4 591 16.6 25.7 - 0.2 64.1 - 1.2 89.8 - 0.9

2005-06 5 484 1.4 280.4 - 3.2 4 835 5.3 26.7 4.0 65.8 2.6 92.5 3.0

2006-07 5 641 2.9 289.1 3.1 5 127 6.0 27.3 2.2 68.4 3.9 95.7 3.4

2007-08 5 629 - 0.2 285.5 - 1.3 5 699 11.2 28.6 4.9 69.3 1.3 97.9 2.3

2008-09 5 541 - 1.6 263.4 - 7.7 5 843 2.5 29.3 2.4 65.1 - 6.0 94.4 - 3.6

2009-10 5 692 2.7 264.3 0.3 6 770 15.9 26.8 - 8.6 65.7 0.9 92.5 - 2.0

2010-11 5 907 3.8 266.2 0.7 7 443 9.9 27.0 0.8 63.5 - 3.5 90.5 - 2.2

2011-12 5 981 1.2 284.0 6.7 8 037 8.0 26.8 - 0.9 68.6 8.2 95.4 5.5

2012-13 6 118 2.3 290.0 2.1 8 591 6.9 27.5 2.8 69.9 1.8 97.4 2.1

2013-14 6 344 3.7 294.0 1.4 9 025 5.1 28.6 4.0 70.7 1.2 99.3 2.0

2014-15 6 612 4.2 296.6 0.9 9 425 4.4 30.0 4.7 71.2 0.8 101.2 1.9

2015-16 6 864 3.8 299.0 0.8 9 777 3.7 31.2 4.2 71.8 0.7 103.0 1.7

2016-17 7 098 3.4 300.8 0.6 10 099 3.3 32.4 3.9 72.1 0.5 104.5 1.5

2017-18 7 322 3.1 302.4 0.5 10 414 3.1 33.6 3.7 72.4 0.4 106.0 1.4

2018-19 7 541 3.0 304.0 0.5 10 720 2.9 34.9 3.6 72.7 0.4 107.5 1.4

2019-20 7 761 2.9 305.5 0.5 11 016 2.8 36.1 3.6 73.0 0.4 109.1 1.4

2020-21 7 982 2.9 306.9 0.5 11 301 2.6 37.4 3.5 73.3 0.4 110.6 1.5

2021-22 8 208 2.8 308.4 0.5 11 591 2.6 38.7 3.5 73.5 0.3 112.2 1.4

Compound annual

growth rate (%)2001/02-2006/07 3.4 - 0.0 - 8.8 - -0.3 - 0.6 - 0.3 -

2006/07-2011/12 1.2 - -0.4 - 9.4 - -0.4 - 0.1 - -0.1 -

2011/12-2016/17 3.5 - 1.2 - 4.7 - 3.9 - 1.0 - 1.8 -

2016/17-2021/22 2.9 - 0.5 - 2.8 - 3.6 - 0.4 - 1.4 -

2001/02-2011/12 2.3 - -0.2 - 9.1 - -0.3 - 0.3 - 0.1 -

2011/12-2021/22 3.2 - 0.8 - 3.7 - 3.8 - 0.7 - 1.6 -Numbers s haded are forecasts.aTotal Inbound Tourism Expenditure (TIDE) including prepaid international airfare and package (real, Base = Q2 2012)

b Total Domestic Tourism Expenditure (TDTE) including the expenditure in domestic day trip and overnight trip (real base = Quarter 2 2012)c Expenditure refers to total expenditure made in Australia by international short term visitor arrivals and Australian resident tourists. It is the sum of real TITE and real TDTE (Q2

2012=100)


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Outbound resident departures to stay at high levelsin the near future

Australian resident outbound departures are forecast to grow by 6.9 per cent to8.6 million in 201213, and then by a further 5.1 per cent to 9.0 million in 201314. Thisgrowth is marginally higher than previously forecast largely due to higher than expected201112 departures (compared to the previous forecast).

The longer-term outlook for outbound travel is for growth of 3.7 per cent withdepartures reaching 11.6 million by 202122.

Inbound arrivals to grow moderately

Inbound visitor arrivals are forecast to increase by 2.3 per cent to reach 6.1 million in

201213, and then by a further 3.7 per cent to 6.3 million in 201314 (down from the3.0 per cent and 4.2 per cent growth previously expected in each year).

The downward revisions are largely due to the weaker than expected GDP growth in2011 and the lower expectations of economic growth in 2012 and 2013 in New Zealandand China.

Upward revisions in 201213 for both the United States (from 1.3 per cent to1.5 per cent) and Japan (from 0.4 per cent to 1.7 per cent) are a result of both higherthan expected 201112 arrival figures and an expected continued path to economicrecovery.

China (11.9 per cent then 9.3 per cent) and Indonesia (5.2 per cent then 7.9 per cent)are among the markets expected to experience strongest growth in 201213 and201314.

By purpose, business and other travel (which includes the fast growing employmentsegment) are projected to contribute most to visitor arrival growth in 201213 and201314.

Strong growth from Asia is expected to be particularly important to the performance ofthe inbound tourism sector in the short and longer term. Asia is expected to increase by4.5 per cent to 2.6 million in 201213, and by a further 5.5 per cent to 2.7 million in201314. In contrast, combined inbound arrivals from elsewhere in the world areexpected to increase by 0.7 per cent in 201213, and then by a further 2.4 per cent in201314 to reach 3.6 million in 201314. Asia's share of inbound arrivals is expected tohave increased from 42 per cent to 45 per cent by 202122.

The long-term outlook will approximate the previous forecast, with average annualgrowth expected to be 3.2 per cent, and inbound arrivals to reach 8.2 million by2021-22.


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Drivers of tourism forecastsThe global economy remainsfragile

The international macroeconomic environment for the TFC forecasts has not improved muchsince the Forecast 2012, Issue 1 released in April 2012. In fact, some regions have gonebackward and, in others, recovery has been delayed.

Latest forecasts from Consensus Economics expect the world economy to grow by2.6 per cent and 2.9 per cent in 2012 and 2013 respectively, slightly lower than expectedearlier this year. Moreover, top-line forecasts masked the unevenness in global economicactivity with the world economic growth being largely driven by emerging economies like

China and India, while most of the developed economies remain in the doldrums.In Europe, concerns about the Euro zone sovereign debt crisisespecially the fiscal debtlevels of economies such as Greece, Italy and Spainhave caused significant marketvolatility. These concerns have also impacted on the stronger performing Europeaneconomies, such as Germany and France, resulting in substantial growth markdowns for2012. The Euro zone economy is expected to remain relatively flat over the next two years,forecast to contract 0.5 per cent in 2012 before increasing a marginal 0.3 per cent in 2013.

The short-term economic outlook for the United Kingdom has continued to deteriorate;economic growth forecasts have been revised downward from the previously forecast0.6 per cent growth to contract by 0.2 per cent in 2012, and from 1.6 per cent to 1.4 per centin 2013. Fiscal consolidations in the UK and the Euro zone countries will tend to increasetaxes and reduce government spending and social benefits, resulting in a decline inconsumers discretionary expenditure on items such as tourism.

In the United States, however, there are encouraging signs that the short-term economicoutlook has improved since the last forecast round. This is evidenced by the stabilising ofhousing and job markets an improvement in consumer and business confidence.

In the Asia-Pacific region, there have been minor downward revisions to the growthexpected for the rapidly expanding larger developing economies of China and India, whileupward revisions have been made to Japan for 2012. In China, the moderation inexpectation of economic growth from 8.4 per cent to 7.9 per cent for 2012 can be attributedto the impact of the Euro zone debt crisis on its export-led industry sectors and managed

deceleration in investment growth to cool down the overheated housing market. A softeningin demand has reduced inflationary pressure, leaving the Peoples Bank of China somescope to further ease monetary policy in late 2012 and 2013 if required. This containment ofinflation also allows the Chinese government to introduce stimulatory measures to spureconomic growth in the years to come.

Reflecting the above-mentioned outlook, it is expected that most growth in inbound tourismdemand to Australia in 201213 and 201314 will continue to come from Asia and slowlypick up from North America. In contrast, near-term prospects for visitor arrivals from Europeremain pessimistic.


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Australia's economic prospects remain solid but downside risk has increased

Although the Australian economy is not immune from the downturns in the rest of the world,its economic prospects remain solid compared with those of many developed economies.According to Consensus Economics, Australian GDP is forecast to grow by a solid3.4 per cent in 2012 and 3.1 per cent in 2013 with the Australian dollar averaging US$1.03 in2012 and $US1.00 in 2013.

Assisting the recent robust economic performance of the Australian economy were twoconsecutive cash rate reductions by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in late 2011 andagain in May 2012. These are likely to have assisted lifting consumer and businessconfidence. The RBA move may have also partly led to the stronger-than-expectedeconomic growth in the first half of 2012 and an increase in discretionary spending, resulting

in higher than expected increases in domestic visitor nights in recent quarters.

However, it should be noted that Australias economy remains relatively uneven. Theresources sector continues to grow strongly providing benefit to Western Australia andQueensland. Meanwhile, manufacturing and many service industries are struggling underthe weight of global uncertainty, a high exchange rate and recent moves by households torein in spending.

Aviation capacity is increasing

The world air travel market has continued to rebound over the past two to three years fromthe sharp recession in 2008 and 2009. According to the International Air TransportAssociation (IATA), worldwide international and domestic passenger traffic grew 5.9 per centto a new high of 5.2 trillion kilometres in 2011. This has compared favourably to trend growthof 4 per cent to 5 per cent over the past 20 to 30 years (although the growth has sloweddown since early 2012 due to the persistent European economic woes and sappingconsumer confidence).

The first six months of 2012 saw international seat capacities grow 4.9 per cent comparedwith the same period in the previous year. The increase in aviation capacity was evident forcarriers from all regions with the strongest performance for airlines in the Middle East(12.9 per cent), Africa (9.7 per cent) and Latin America (8.2 per cent). Moderate growthoccurred for the Asia-Pacific region (4.5 per cent) and Europe (3.8 per cent).

In line with the global trend, international seat capacity to Australia increased almost4.0 per cent in 201112 with all major markets recording growth. The strongest growth wasprovided by Low Cost Carriers (LCC) from Asian markets. Despite increasing oil prices andpolitical unrest in the Middle East, the short-term outlook remains positive for air capacity toAustralia in 201213. Overall, capacity is expected to increase by 5.0 per cent to 20 millionseats in 201213, and then by a further 5.0 per cent to 21.1 million in 201314.

In 201213 and 201314, strongest growth is expected from the Middle East (21 per cent,then 18.0 per cent), China (15.1 per cent, then 11.1 per cent), Singapore (13.5 per cent, then5.1 per cent) and Malaysia (12.0 per cent, then 4.4 per cent). Modest growth is forecast forNew Zealand, the United States, Japan and South Korea.


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The United Kingdom is the only major market for which seat capacity is forecast to decline

over 201213 and 201314; largely due to British Airways increasing flights to Asian hubswhile reducing direct flights to Australia. On the domestic scene, aviation seat capacityrecorded a modest 1.7 per cent growth in 201112. Domestic aviation capacity is forecast torebound vigorously by 9.0 per cent in 201213. Contributing to the surge in 201213 are theincreased seat capacities by domestic airlines including Qantas and Virgin Australia and, tosome extent, due to Tiger Airways resuming flights.

Despite the increased passenger demand, most airlines in the world are struggling to makesignificant profits. In the medium to long term, any persistence in high world oil prices andcontinued economic weakness pose a downside risk to the financial performance of airlines.This has the effect of weakening international and domestic aviation capacity, andconsequently flows on to tourism. Under such circumstances, those airlines with limited

government support and/or capability to hedge against higher jet fuel costs on financialmarkets would be particularly exposed. These airlines could respond with higher fuelsurcharges and/or ticket prices. However, airlines that concentrate on very competitiveroutes could find it harder to pass on the costs to passengers through surcharges.

Accommodation: growth in supply flat with yields rising

Accommodation is an important part of the tourism supply chain. Increases in prices foraccommodation affect consumers travel decisions, and can lead to consumers choosingother activities over travel. However, competitive domestic accommodation prices often lead

to consumers choosing to travel within Australia rather than overseas.

Key supply and demand indicators for the year ending June 2012 (compared to the yearending June 2011) showed that the demand for tourist accommodation in Australiaincreased. The number of room nights occupied was up by 2.0 per cent to 54 million nights,and takings from accommodation were up by 5.5 per cent in nominal terms (or 3.2 per centin real terms) to $8.8 billion.

The supply of tourist accommodation in Australia remained relatively flat in the year endingJune 2012 (compared to the same period in 2011). The number of rooms available was upby 0.3 per cent (or 600 rooms) to 227,200. Combining the results for supply and demandsuggests that yields per room night available increased by 2.8 per cent to $100 (in real

terms).Looking ahead, Deloitte Access Economics Hotel Outlookexpects room occupancy rates toincrease from 65 per cent to 68 per cent by 2014. Further, analysis by TRA shows that roomstock is forecast to grow 2 per cent to 2016 in the ten major domestic markets, and0.7 per cent in regional areas, resulting in growth in stock of around 17,200 rooms.


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Comparison of 201112 tourism forecasts withactual visitationThe forecast for domestic travel: above projections

Domestic travel activity recorded strong growth in 201112; buoyed by the solid growth inbusiness and VFR travel. During the year, Australians took 75 million overnight trips (up5.8 per cent); spent 284 million visitor nights away (up 6.7 per cent); and grossed $69 billionin domestic expenditure (up 8.2 per cent).

The 6.7 per cent growth of domestic visitor nights in 201112 was well above the previouslyforecast 1.5 per cent growth. Contributing to this higher than expected growth was the stateof the economy (especially in the second half of the financial year), two consecutive interestrate reductions in late 2011 and a further cut in May 2012, as well as the continued lowunemployment rate.

The forecast for outbound travel: on track

Solid domestic economic growth and a higher exchange rate (between the Australian dollarand most international currencies) continued to appeal to Australians in 201112. Therewere more than 8 million outbound resident departures for the year, an increase of8.0 per cent on the previous year. Overall, the actual growth rate was marginally higher than

the forecast growth rate (7.8 per cent).

By purpose, business and holiday visits (2.0 per cent and 10.1 per cent growth) were veryclose to the forecast growth rates (2.1 per cent and 10.3 per cent), while VFR overshotexpectations (actual growth 7.6 per cent versus forecast 5.8 per cent). Other (excluding notstated) was less than expected (actual 3.6 per cent versus forecast 5.4 per cent).

By market, departures to New Zealand, the United States, Indonesia and Thailand wererelatively accurate. Departures to the United Kingdom were below forecast (actual2.1 per cent versus forecast 4.9 per cent).

The forecast for inbound travel: on track

In 201112, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia increased by 1.2 per cent to 6.0 million,which was marginally higher than the forecast 1.0 per cent growth.

Visitor arrivals from a number of countries including the United Kingdom, China, Germany,India and Ireland were broadly in line with forecasts, while arrivals from New Zealand,Japan, United States and South Korea were higher than forecast.


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The TFCs long-term forecasting performanceTRA has undertaken a comprehensive assessment of the performance of the TFC tourism

forecasts. This section provides both a summary of the tourism forecast performance as well

as a summary of the performance of TFC forecasts compared with the forecasts of another

Australian Government agency, The Treasury.

The review and analysis of TFCs forecasting performance is based on the available

historical forecast data (20052011) for the majority of key forecasts. This included:

International arrivals (Australian Bureau of Statistics, or ABS)

International nights (TRA)

Outbound departures (ABS)Domestic visitor nights (TRA)

Total Domestic Economic Value (TDEV) (TRA)

Total International Economic Value (TIEV) (TRA)

Analysis of the TFC forecasts shows that:

International Arrivals and Domestic Visitor Nights were, on average, forecast more

accurately than other indicators. International arrivals were usually overestimated

while Domestic Visitor Nights were usually underestimated.

The overestimation ofInternational Arrivalswas mainly due to the error in forecasting

the holiday sector and the variability in two source countries, namely the UnitedKingdom and Japan.The underestimation of Domestic Visitor Nights was largely due to theunderestimation in the holidaysector and overestimation of the business sector.The forecasting accuracy of TDEV and TIEV was affected by the conversion fromnominal to real values.When comparing the accuracy of TFC forecasts to Treasury forecasts, both sets offorecasts [of domestic indicators] appeared to be more accurate than that ofinternational indicators.The accuracy of the TFC forecasts was close to those of the Treasurymacroeconomic indicators in the short to medium term.

The accuracy of short and medium-term forecasts (6 to 12 months ahead) washigher than those of long-term forecasts (24 months or longer ahead).

The accuracy of forecasts usually depends on the frequency of updating the

forecasting models. The indicators of accuracy vary at intervals of 6, 12, 24 and

36 months (the more often new information is incorporated into the model, the better

the forecast value that will be achieved).


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9

Domestic and outbound tourism forecastsProspects for domestic tourism have improved

Over the last three financial years, domestic travel has shown signs of resilience in the face

of many challenges including the higher Australian dollar, lower consumer discretionary

spending and natural disasters, such as cyclones and floods. The domestic visitor nights in

201112 grew by 6.7 per cent, well above the previously forecast 1.5 per cent.

Contributing to the higher than expected growth of domestic visitor nights for 201112 were

the higher than expected GDP growth (especially in the second half of the financial year);

two consecutive interest rate reductions in late 2011 and a further cut in May 2012; as well

as the persistent low unemployment rate. The marketing activities by government tourismpromoting agencies at various levels may also have contributed to the solid growth of

domestic tourism.

It is anticipated that this momentum will continue in 201213 and the year that follows.

Domestic Visitor Nightsare forecast to increase by 2.1 per cent to 290 million in 201213,

and then by a further 1.4 per cent to 294 million in 201314. This compares to the previous

forecast of 0.7 per cent in 201213 and 0.6 per cent 201314 (refer Figure 1).

Figure 1: Domestic visitor nights forecast comparison

Source: Tourism Research Australia National Visitor Survey, 2012; Tourism Forecasting Committee Forecast 2012 Issue 2,Tourism Research Australia

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

Change(%)

Visitornights(m)

Chg (2012#1) Chg (2012#2) 2012#1 2012#2


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10

The brighter short-term outlook is linked to stronger growth in travel to visit friends and

relatives (VFR) than previously expected and some shift away from outbound travel.

The longer-term annual average rate of growth for domestic visitor nights is projected to

grow modestly at 0.8 per cent throughout the period to 202122. Domestic visitor nights are

now expected to reach 308 million by 202122. This rate of growth is marginally below the

ABS estimate for population growth.

While overall the short-term and, to a lesser extent, long-term prospects for domestic visitor

nights have improved, there is still expected to be variability between different areas of

Australia. These differences will be examined in the TFC regional forecasts to be released

within four weeks of this publication.

On the expenditure side, Total Domestic Tourism Expenditure (TDTE)2

is forecast toincrease by 1.8 per cent to $70 billion in 201213, then by a further 1.2 per cent increase to

$71 billion in 201314. In the longer term, domestic tourism expenditure is expected to

record annual average growth of 0.7 per cent and reach $74 billion by 202122.

Outbound departures expected to stay at high levels

Total outbound departures are forecast to continue to record solid growth in future years.While the forecast growth rate of outbound departures has been revised up to 6.9 per centand 5.1 per cent for 201213 and 201314 respectively, from the previously forecast6.6 per cent and 4.9 per cent in each year it does represent a slowing in growth

(refer Figure 2).

Driving the forecasts are the assumed solid consumer economy, sustained high value of theAustralian dollar and continued expansion in aviation capacity to many key leisure outboundmarkets. In the longer term, the annual average growth for outbound resident departures isnow expected to be 3.7 per cent with departures reaching 11.6 million by 202122.

2 The measures of Total Tourism Expenditure, TDTE and TITE are presented in real terms in

this publication. All historical estimates and forecasts to 202122 for these measures are

based on June 2012 dollars.


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11

Figure 2: Short-term resident departures forecast comparison

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Overseas Arrivals and Departures, July 2012 (ABS Cat No 3401.0); TourismForecasting Committee Forecast 2012, Issue 2, Tourism Research Australia

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

Change(%)

Trips('000)

Series3 Chg (2012#2) 2012#1 2012#2


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12

Inbound tourism forecastsInbound tourism forecast to grow modestly in short and medium term

The revised forecasts show that the expected rate of growth in visitor arrivals have beenrevised marginally downward, from 3.0 per cent to 2.3 per cent in 201213, and from4.2 per cent to 3.7 per cent for 2013-14. Driving the downward revision are the markdownsfor New Zealand and China. These were revised from the previous forecast for 201213 of1.9 per cent and 12.6 per cent to 0.6 per cent and 11.9 per cent, respectively. Europeremains the most significant risk and, while most Euro markets have not changedsignificantly, the cumulative change for the United Kingdom is of concern. When comparingrevisions between forecast rounds, the United Kingdom has been revised downward by

232,000 visitors, with arrivals not expected to return to 201011 levels (632,000) until2015-16 (refer Figure 3).

Figure 3: International visitor arrivals forecast comparison

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Overseas Arrivals and Departures, July 2012 (ABS Cat No 3401.0);Tourism Forecasting Committee Forecast 2012, Issue 2, Tourism Research Australia

These revisions are largely due to the compounding effect of weaker-than-expectedeconomic growth in 2011, and the mixed world economic picture where the positive outlookof Asia is somewhat overshadowed by the negative prospects of Euro zone economies.

However, such expectations are partially offset by the upward revisions of the forecastinbound arrivals from USA and Japan (USA up from 1.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent for 201213and Japan up from 0.4 per cent to 1.7 per cent for 201213) due to the higher than expected

historical data on total inbound visitor arrivals in 201112 and the continuing economicrecovery and improved consumer confidence in USA and Japan.

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2

4

6

8

10

12

Chan

ge(%)

Visitorarriva

ls(m)

Chg (2012#1) Chg (2012#2) 2012#1 2012#2


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13

By purpose, business (2.3 per cent) and holiday (2.2 per cent) travel are projected to

contribute most to the modest growth forecast in 201213 and for 201314. Other(4.7 per cent), holiday (3.7 per cent) and business (3.6 per cent) are expected to record solidgrowth.

On the expenditure side, Total Inbound Tourism Expenditure (TITE)3 is forecast to increaseby 2.8 per cent to $28 billion in 201213. In the longer term, compared to domesticexpenditure, inbound expenditure is forecast to grow at the faster annual average rate of3.8 per cent to total $39 billion in 202122.

While China has received a downgrade in its forecasts, the China market is expected toprovide around a fifth of total growth in total tourism expenditure (international anddomestic). Furthermore, strong growth from Asia is expected to dominate performance of the

inbound tourism sector in the short and medium term. Inbound arrivals from Asia areexpected to increase by 4.5 per cent to 2.6 million in 201213, and by a further 5.5 per centto 2.7 million in 201314. Markets expected to experience strongest growth in 201213 areChina (11.9 per cent), Indonesia (5.2 per cent), and India (5.0 per cent). By 202122, Asia'sshare of inbound arrivals is expected to increase from 42 per cent to 45 per cent. In contrast,combined inbound arrivals from elsewhere in the world are expected to remain relatively flat(0.7 per cent in 201213) then 2.4 per cent in 201314.

The outlook for inbound arrivals from Europe is mixed. Arrivals from the United Kingdom areforecast to decline by 1.3 per cent in 201213 before increasing 1.6 per cent in 201314.The arrivals from Other Europe are forecast to record a modest growth of 1.3 per cent in201213, and then by a further 2.0 per cent in 201314. The significant growth of inbound

arrivals forecast from Ireland in 201213 (7.0 per cent) and 201314 (4.6 per cent) is largelydue to high numbers in the employment category expected during the current economicdownturns.

In the longer term, annual average growth of 3.2 per cent in inbound arrivals is expected toreach 8.2 million by 202122. Growth is expected to be supported by a recovering globaleconomy; a depreciating Australian dollar; a softening in outbound demand providing supplyopportunities for inbound arrivals; and increased investment in marketing activities bygovernment tourism-promoting agencies.

3The measures of total tourism expenditure, TDTE and TITE are presented in real terms in thispublication. As a result, all historical estimates and forecasts to 202122 for these measures are

shown in June 2012 dollars.


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14

Table 2 Domestic tourismBusiness Holiday VFRa Other Visitor nights Total Overnight trip Day trip TDTEb TDTE

Total change change change Expenditure Expenditure (real) change

('000) per cent ('000) per cent ('000) per cent $million $million $million per cent

2000-01 43 789 148 927 85 003 13 909 291 628 73 820 152 765 52 188 17 179 69 367

2001-02 43 182 144 077 87 344 14 139 288 742 -1.0 75 048 1.7 142 304 -6.8 51 171 15 251 66 422 -4.2

2002-03 46 324 143 395 97 820 14 716 302 255 4.7 75 217 0.2 143 261 0.7 52 884 15 487 68 372 2.92003-04 41 767 140 202 101 585 12 318 295 872 -2.1 74 357 -1.1 137 899 -3.7 50 210 14 728 64 938 -5.0

2004-05 40 506 139 616 95 910 13 660 289 692 -2.1 72 178 -2.9 131 154 -4.9 49 884 14 252 64 136 -1.2

2005-06 41 356 136 270 88 889 13 879 280 394 -3.2 71 934 -0.3 131 602 0.3 50 798 15 002 65 799 2.6

2006-07 43 517 142 796 89 318 13 502 289 133 3.1 73 766 2.5 139 538 6.0 52 263 16 125 68 388 3.9

2007-08 42 158 143 736 86 582 13 015 285 491 -1.3 73 528 -0.3 140 745 0.9 53 202 16 103 69 305 1.3

2008-09 37 261 134 033 81 362 10 750 263 406 -7.7 68 536 -6.8 144 725 2.8 48 959 16 179 65 138 -6.0

2009-10 37 987 132 594 80 882 12 798 264 261 0.3 68 144 -0.6 155 075 7.2 48 853 16 882 65 735 0.9

2010-11 40 535 132 236 79 687 13 778 266 236 0.7 70 977 4.2 156 286 0.8 47 889 15 569 63 458 -3.5

2011-12 44 253 134 968 90 681 14 075 283 977 6.7 75 120 5.8 168 847 8.0 51 028 17 614 68 642 8.2

2012-13 45 360 137 512 92 964 14 181 290 016 2.1 76 748 2.2 170 419 0.9 52 100 17 792 69 892 1.8

2013-14 46 948 138 908 93 907 14 266 294 028 1.4 77 931 1.5 171 615 0.7 52 827 17 882 70 709 1.2

2014-15 48 041 139 369 94 861 14 323 296 593 0.9 78 769 1.1 172 629 0.6 53 285 17 961 71 246 0.8

2015-16 48 965 139 798 95 823 14 373 298 959 0.8 79 559 1.0 173 578 0.5 53 717 18 040 71 757 0.7

2016-17 49 313 140 227 96 795 14 417 300 753 0.6 80 205 0.8 174 441 0.5 53 988 18 104 72 093 0.5

2017-18 49 614 140 516 97 776 14 458 302 364 0.5 80 805 0.7 175 267 0.5 54 222 18 171 72 393 0.4

2018-19 49 916 140 805 98 766 14 495 303 982 0.5 81 410 0.7 176 098 0.5 54 455 18 231 72 686 0.4

2019-20 50 220 140 952 99 767 14 530 305 470 0.5 81 983 0.7 176 932 0.5 54 664 18 294 72 958 0.4

2020-21 50 476 141 100 100 779 14 564 306 918 0.5 82 551 0.7 177 774 0.5 54 903 18 381 73 284 0.4

2021-22 50 733 141 247 101 800 14 597 308 377 0.5 83 156 0.7 178 621 0.5 55 061 18 469 73 530 0.3

Compound annual

growth rate (%)

2001/02-2006/07 0.2 -0.2 0.4 -0.9 0.0 - -0.3 - -0.4 - 0.4 1.1 0.6 -

2006/07-2011/12 0.3 -1.1 0.3 0.8 -0.4 - 0.4 - 3.9 - -0.5 1.8 0.1 -

2011/12-2016/17 2.2 0.8 1.3 0.5 1.2 - 1.3 - 0.7 - 1.1 0.6 1.0 -

2016/17-2021/22 0.6 0.1 1.0 0.2 0.5 - 0.7 - 0.5 - 0.4 0.4 0.4 -

2001/02-2011/12 0.2 -0.7 0.4 0.0 -0.2 - 0.0 - 1.7 - 0.0 1.5 0.3 -

2011/12-2021/22 1.4 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.8 - 1.0 - 0.6 - 0.8 0.5 0.7 -a Visiting friends and relativesb Total Domestic Tourism Expenditure (TDTE) including the expenditure in domestic day trip and overnight trip (real base = Quarter 2 2012)

Overnight trips Day trips


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15

Table 3 Domestic visitor nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses and

serviced apartments

Business Holiday VFR a Other Total Total HMGSA b

change share

('000) per cent per cent

2000-01 23 026 41 709 9 125 2 972 76 832 n.a. 26.3

2001-02 23 809 41 400 8 896 2 836 76 941 0.1 26.6

2002-03 25 589 42 075 9 799 3 022 80 485 4.6 26.6

2003-04 24 001 41 824 11 227 2 893 79 945 -0.7 27.0

2004-05 23 183 44 547 10 021 3 200 80 951 1.3 27.9

2005-06 23 429 42 395 8 615 3 672 78 111 -3.5 27.9

2006-07 25 435 43 301 8 502 2 805 80 043 2.5 27.72007-08 24 308 45 680 9 061 3 082 82 131 2.6 28.8

2008-09 22 845 39 115 8 302 2 830 73 092 -11.0 27.7

2009-10 21 982 40 712 8 657 3 942 75 293 3.0 28.5

2010-11 24 357 37 982 8 469 3 920 74 728 -0.8 28.1

2011-12 24 810 39 105 9 701 3 280 76 896 2.9 27.1

2012-13 25 543 39 869 10 030 3 299 78 741 2.4 27.2

2013-14 26 445 40 434 10 151 3 354 80 384 2.1 27.3

2014-15 27 088 40 676 10 270 3 396 81 430 1.3 27.5

2015-16 27 657 40 867 10 383 3 437 82 344 1.1 27.5

2016-17 27 912 41 046 10 490 3 471 82 919 0.7 27.6

2017-18 28 147 41 187 10 603 3 508 83 445 0.6 27.6

2018-19 28 388 41 324 10 716 3 544 83 973 0.6 27.6

2019-20 28 624 41 418 10 831 3 579 84 451 0.6 27.6

2020-21 28 854 41 510 10 944 3 746 85 053 0.7 27.7

2021-22 29 049 41 613 11 068 3 680 85 409 0.4 27.7

Compound annual

growth rate (%)

2001/02-2006/07 1.3 0.9 -0.9 -0.2 0.8 - 0.8

2006/07-2011/12 -0.5 -2.0 2.7 3.2 -0.8 - -0.4

2011/12-2016/17 2.4 1.0 1.6 1.1 1.5 - 0.1

2016/17-2021/22 0.8 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.6 - 0.1

2001/02-2011/12 0.4 -0.6 0.9 1.5 0.0 - 0.2

2011/12-2021/22 1.6 0.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 - 0.2a Visiting friends and relativesb

Hotels, motels, guesthouses, and serviced apartments


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16

Table 4 Short-term resident departures by market, financial year

New United United Hong Other Other Total

Business VFR Holiday Other Total Zealand States Kingdom Indonesia Kong Singapore Thailand Malaysia Fiji China Asia Europe Other Total change

'000 '000 per cent

2000-01 724 919 1 584 228 3 577 575 373 323 295 157 154 158 135 70 101 371 410 456 3 577 n.a.

2001-02 674 827 1 468 214 3 368 592 276 308 271 142 163 163 110 113 121 363 374 371 3 368 -5.9

2002-03 655 861 1 385 214 3 293 615 288 309 194 115 119 150 98 129 118 377 385 396 3 293 -2.2

2003-04 779 1 028 1 744 232 3 937 739 342 351 271 140 148 154 126 161 150 454 436 462 3 937 19.52004-05 864 1 170 2 143 245 4 591 843 395 385 344 173 176 187 156 189 214 533 495 502 4 591 16.6

2005-06 907 1 217 2 272 258 4 835 836 438 409 242 191 205 246 164 200 240 566 547 550 4 835 5.3

2006-07 948 1 261 2 470 270 5 127 883 451 415 231 200 208 332 172 194 269 631 562 579 5 127 6.0

2007-08 983 1 344 2 891 283 5 699 913 492 430 328 215 224 403 186 224 287 720 627 650 5 699 11.2

2008-09 880 1 444 3 043 287 5 843 955 501 420 436 200 214 378 205 221 268 754 591 700 5 843 2.5

2009-10 923 1 642 3 721 289 6 770 1 064 635 456 653 211 246 432 239 286 306 853 644 745 6 770 15.9

2010-11 1 013 1 688 4 195 317 7 443 1 058 751 477 806 223 276 487 255 323 356 927 721 783 7 443 9.9

2011-12 1 033 1 816 4 619 328 8 037 1 117 820 487 911 229 287 600 257 339 381 1 022 780 807 8 037 8.0

2012-13 1 080 1 916 4 999 344 8 591 1 164 881 531 984 239 311 663 268 357 411 1 104 837 840 8 591 6.9

2013-14 1 123 2 010 5 269 360 9 025 1 206 937 525 1 048 246 327 706 282 373 440 1 175 887 872 9 025 5.1

2014-15 1 162 2 100 5 515 374 9 425 1 244 983 544 1 100 251 342 741 295 386 470 1 245 922 902 9 425 4.4

2015-16 1 200 2 176 5 730 388 9 777 1 278 1 023 561 1 143 257 357 769 306 399 496 1 305 954 930 9 777 3.7

2016-17 1 237 2 246 5 920 402 10 099 1 309 1 056 572 1 180 262 371 794 318 411 521 1 363 986 956 10 099 3.3

2017-18 1 272 2 313 6 107 417 10 414 1 339 1 088 583 1 217 268 386 817 329 423 546 1 422 1 014 983 10 414 3.1

2018-19 1 306 2 380 6 287 431 10 720 1 367 1 119 593 1 252 273 400 840 340 436 570 1 479 1 040 1 010 10 720 2.9

2019-20 1 339 2 441 6 464 446 11 016 1 395 1 148 602 1 287 279 415 862 350 449 594 1 536 1 063 1 035 11 016 2.8

2020-21 1 371 2 503 6 628 462 11 301 1 422 1 171 611 1 319 284 430 886 361 462 617 1 590 1 087 1 060 11 301 2.6

2021-22 1 404 2 566 6 794 478 11 591 1 448 1 195 620 1 352 290 446 908 373 476 641 1 646 1 110 1 086 11 591 2.6

Compound annual

growth rate (%)

2001/02-2006/07 7.0 8.8 11.0 4.7 8.8 8.3 10.3 6.1 -3.1 7.1 5.0 15.2 9.5 11.3 17.2 11.7 8.5 9.3 8.8 -

2006/07-2011/12 1.7 7.6 13.3 4.0 9.4 4.8 12.7 3.2 31.5 2.7 6.6 12.6 8.3 11.9 7.2 10.1 6.8 6.9 9.4 -

2011/12-2016/17 3.7 4.3 5.1 4.2 4.7 3.2 5.2 3.3 5.3 2.8 5.3 5.7 4.3 3.9 6.5 5.9 4.8 3.5 4.7 -

2016/17-2021/22 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.5 2.8 2.0 2.5 1.6 2.8 2.0 3.8 2.7 3.2 3.0 4.2 3.8 2.4 2.6 2.8 -

2001/02-2011/12 4.4 8.2 12.1 4.4 9.1 6.6 11.5 4.7 12.9 4.9 5.8 13.9 8.9 11.6 12.1 10.9 7.6 8.1 9.1 -2011/12-2021/22 3.1 3.5 3.9 3.8 3.7 2.6 3.8 2.5 4.0 2.4 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.5 5.4 4.9 3.6 3.0 3.7 -

Numbers shaded are forecasts.

The sum of purpose of visit categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for those not reporting a purpose of visit

Purpose of visit


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17

Table 5 International visitor arrivals by market, financial yearNew United United South Hong Middle Other Other South Other Total Total

Zealand Japan Kingdom States China S'pore Korea Malaysia Kong Germany India Indonesia Thailand East Asia France Ireland Europe Canada Africa World change

per cent

2000-01 828 724 605 502 143 293 165 148 154 148 46 98 78 57 206 54 50 356 96 56 223 5 031 n.a.

2001-02 788 659 627 424 172 296 181 154 149 137 47 95 80 56 174 52 51 303 93 56 175 4 768 -5.2

2002-03 793 659 644 424 177 262 196 142 141 134 41 87 76 50 149 46 47 297 87 48 158 4 656 -2.42003-04 926 688 686 430 217 253 216 175 132 141 54 91 79 56 180 57 54 306 93 55 167 5 057 8.6

2004-05 1 082 701 699 446 274 267 237 169 149 142 59 82 79 68 185 59 57 323 103 50 176 5 408 6.9

2005-06 1 091 674 709 453 292 252 243 153 159 150 79 82 75 73 190 66 60 333 106 55 190 5 484 1.4

2006-07 1 115 610 733 455 338 263 271 157 153 149 88 85 77 83 200 70 63 348 111 60 210 5 641 2.9

2007-08 1 121 521 686 455 375 267 236 166 147 155 108 93 84 93 207 78 69 358 121 66 224 5 629 -0.2

2008-09 1 106 404 659 452 358 278 193 195 150 159 120 96 77 105 230 89 67 363 121 64 255 5 541 -1.6

2009-10 1 123 364 653 489 394 290 196 214 154 163 130 118 83 111 237 97 59 370 125 61 259 5 692 2.7

2010-11 1 183 364 632 466 500 315 205 244 170 159 144 133 88 114 235 94 53 363 119 62 264 5 907 3.8

2011-12 1 191 344 597 464 583 320 199 243 169 152 152 142 81 114 251 96 62 362 119 63 276 5 981 1.2

2012-13 1 199 350 589 471 652 329 197 247 171 152 160 149 82 116 258 97 67 367 121 63 280 6 118 2.3

2013-14 1 222 361 599 483 713 340 201 257 176 155 173 161 86 122 270 101 70 374 125 65 289 6 344 3.7

2014-15 1 251 370 615 501 769 353 209 267 182 161 188 172 90 132 283 106 72 389 131 69 302 6 612 4.2

2015-16 1 282 376 633 519 815 363 217 276 188 166 202 183 94 142 296 111 74 403 136 73 313 6 864 3.8

2016-17 1 309 382 648 537 857 372 225 285 193 171 217 194 97 152 309 116 77 417 141 76 324 7 098 3.4

2017-18 1 334 387 662 554 894 381 232 293 198 176 232 204 100 162 321 121 79 431 145 79 335 7 322 3.1

2018-19 1 357 391 676 572 930 389 240 301 202 182 248 214 103 174 333 126 81 444 150 82 346 7 541 3.0

2019-20 1 378 395 689 590 967 398 247 309 207 187 265 225 106 185 345 131 82 458 154 85 357 7 761 2.9

2020-21 1 398 398 703 608 1 004 407 254 318 211 192 283 236 109 198 357 136 84 471 159 89 368 7 982 2.9

2021-22 1 418 402 717 627 1 039 416 262 326 216 197 301 247 113 211 369 141 86 485 163 92 379 8 208 2.8

2001/02-2006/07 7.2 -1.5 3.2 1.4 14.5 -2.3 8.4 0.4 0.6 1.7 13.2 -2.1 -0.7 8.2 2.9 6.1 4.6 2.8 3.5 1.6 3.7 3.4 -

2006/07-2011/12 1.3 -10.8 -4.0 0.4 11.5 3.9 -5.9 9.1 2.0 0.4 11.6 10.7 1.0 6.6 4.6 6.5 -0.4 0.8 1.5 0.8 5.6 1.2

2011/12-2016/17 1.9 2.1 1.6 2.9 8.0 3.1 2.4 3.2 2.7 2.5 7.4 6.5 3.6 5.9 4.2 4.0 4.3 2.9 3.3 3.9 3.3 3.5 -

2016/17-2021/22 1.6 1.0 2.1 3.2 3.9 2.2 3.1 2.8 2.3 2.8 6.8 5.0 3.1 6.8 3.6 3.9 2.3 3.1 3.1 3.8 3.2 2.9 -

2001/02-2011/12 4.2 -6.3 -0.5 0.9 13.0 0.8 1.0 4.7 1.3 1.0 12.4 4.1 0.1 7.4 3.7 6.3 2.1 1.8 2.5 1.2 4.6 2.3 -

2011/12-2021/22 1.8 1.6 1.8 3.1 6.0 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.5 2.7 7.1 5.7 3.3 6.4 3.9 3.9 3.3 3.0 3.2 3.9 3.2 3.2 -


'000

Compound annual growth rate (%)


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18

Table 6 International visitor arrivals by purpose of visit, financial yearBusiness VFRa Holiday Other b Total Total

change

'000 per cent

2000-01 611 1 021 2 693 513 5 031 n.a.

2001-02 564 855 2 296 477 4 768 -5.2

2002-03 556 865 2 361 473 4 656 -2.4

2003-04 636 986 2 603 558 5 057 8.6

2004-05 679 1 098 2 866 528 5 408 6.9

2005-06 766 1 109 2 895 621 5 484 1.4

2006-07 824 1 153 2 896 668 5 641 2.9

2007-08 849 1 201 2 754 714 5 629 -0.2

2008-09 766 1 283 2 604 771 5 541 -1.6

2009-10 785 1 392 2 608 780 5 692 2.7

2010-11 852 1 430 2 657 823 5 907 3.8

2011-12 882 1 467 2 642 841 5 981 1.2

2012-13 903 1 494 2 701 801 6 118 2.3

2013-14 935 1 541 2 800 839 6 344 3.7

2014-15 968 1 599 2 922 883 6 612 4.2

2015-16 998 1 656 3 032 928 6 864 3.8

2016-17 1 025 1 709 3 132 971 7 098 3.4

2017-18 1 052 1 760 3 226 1 015 7 322 3.1

2018-19 1 077 1 809 3 317 1 059 7 541 3.0

2019-20 1 103 1 857 3 407 1 105 7 761 2.9

2020-21 1 129 1 905 3 498 1 152 7 982 2.9

2021-22 1 155 1 953 3 590 1 201 8 208 2.8

Compound annual

growth rate (%)

2001/02-2006/07 7.9 6.2 4.7 7.0 3.4 -

2006/07-2011/12 1.4 4.9 -1.8 4.7 1.2 -

2011/12-2016/17 3.1 3.1 3.5 2.9 3.5 -

2016/17-2021/22 2.4 2.7 2.8 4.3 2.9 -

2001/02-2011/12 4.6 5.6 1.4 5.8 2.3 -

2011/12-2021/22 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.6 3.2 -

Numbers s haded are forecasts.a Visi ting friends and relativesb Other refers to education and employment visi tors who s tay in Australia for one year or less.

The sum of purpose of vis it categories does not add to the total as the total includes estimates for

those not reporting a purpose of vis it


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19

Table 7 International leisure visitor arrivals by market, financial yearNew United United South Hong Middle Other Other South Other Total Total


per cent

2000-01 608 623 512 331 76 221 120 113 114 118 24 60 51 41 138 34 41 251 73 37 128 3 713 n.a.

2001-02 516 436 496 254 90 186 120 107 100 103 24 52 45 37 106 31 39 207 67 35 100 3 151 -15.1

2002-03 529 534 522 249 93 171 140 100 94 103 20 50 40 33 90 29 37 207 63 30 92 3 226 2.4

2003-04 653 575 566 246 116 170 161 130 93 104 26 54 45 39 122 32 44 211 69 35 99 3 589 11.2

2004-05 774 605 603 288 149 184 183 122 106 110 31 48 43 47 130 40 48 236 79 32 105 3 964 10.4

2005-06 765 581 620 292 166 160 185 109 113 118 38 48 41 51 135 48 51 249 82 37 112 4 004 1.0

2006-07 782 516 642 285 199 161 205 108 104 115 42 49 41 55 134 50 53 259 83 41 125 4 049 1.1

2007-08 770 435 595 275 223 160 176 116 97 119 52 51 45 59 134 56 58 263 91 46 133 3 955 -2.3

2008-09 770 330 570 286 222 173 137 140 103 121 57 56 40 66 149 63 53 263 90 46 149 3 887 -1.7

2009-10 793 296 562 314 232 180 141 155 102 125 67 72 45 66 150 71 47 278 96 45 161 3 999 2.9

2010-11 824 290 533 289 308 191 153 178 115 122 74 81 47 69 142 69 39 268 89 43 164 4 087 2.2

2011-12 828 268 490 284 385 191 147 177 115 115 84 88 44 65 155 70 43 262 88 44 169 4 109 0.6

2012-13 828 271 481 289 444 194 145 180 116 116 90 93 44 65 159 71 44 263 89 44 169 4 195 2.1

2013-14 840 280 487 296 491 198 147 187 119 118 98 101 46 69 167 73 45 267 92 46 174 4 341 3.5

2014-15 859 287 501 309 530 204 153 193 122 122 106 108 48 75 176 77 46 278 96 49 181 4 521 4.1

2015-16 881 292 516 321 560 208 158 199 125 126 113 115 51 81 184 81 48 290 100 52 188 4 688 3.7

2016-17 901 297 528 333 585 211 164 204 128 129 121 121 53 87 192 84 50 301 103 55 195 4 842 3.3

2017-18 918 300 540 346 607 214 169 209 131 133 129 127 55 93 200 88 51 311 106 57 201 4 986 3.0

2018-19 935 304 551 358 626 217 174 214 133 137 137 133 57 100 207 92 52 322 110 60 208 5 125 2.8

2019-20 951 307 562 371 645 219 179 219 135 140 145 139 59 107 215 95 54 332 113 62 214 5 264 2.7

2020-21 966 309 573 384 664 222 184 224 137 144 154 145 60 115 222 99 55 343 116 65 221 5 403 2.6

2021-22 981 312 585 397 681 225 189 229 140 148 164 152 62 123 229 103 56 354 120 67 227 5 544 2.6

2001/02-2006/07 8.7 3.4 5.3 2.4 17.2 -2.9 11.3 0.2 0.8 2.3 12.0 -1.2 -1.9 8.0 4.7 10.2 6.2 4.5 4.5 3.1 4.6 5.1 -2006/07-2011/12 1.1 -12.3 -5.3 -0.1 14.2 3.5 -6.5 10.4 1.9 0.0 14.9 12.4 1.4 3.7 2.9 6.9 -4.3 0.2 1.0 1.2 6.3 0.3

2011/12-2016/17 1.7 2.1 1.5 3.3 8.7 2.0 2.2 2.8 2.2 2.4 7.7 6.6 3.9 5.9 4.4 3.9 3.1 2.8 3.3 4.5 2.9 3.3 -

2016/17-2021/22 1.7 1.0 2.1 3.6 3.1 1.3 2.9 2.3 1.7 2.7 6.2 4.7 3.4 7.2 3.6 4.0 2.4 3.3 3.0 4.3 3.1 2.7 -

2001/02-2011/12 4.8 -4.8 -0.1 1.1 15.7 0.2 2.0 5.2 1.4 1.1 13.4 5.4 -0.3 5.8 3.8 8.5 0.8 2.4 2.8 2.2 5.4 2.7 -

2011/12-2021/22 1.7 1.5 1.8 3.4 5.9 1.7 2.6 2.6 2.0 2.5 6.9 5.6 3.6 6.5 4.0 3.9 2.8 3.1 3.2 4.4 3.0 3.0 -


'000



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20

Table 8 International visitor nights by market, financial yearNew Japan Unit ed United China Singapore Sout h Malays ia Hong Germany India Indones ia Thailand Middle Other Franc e Ireland Ot her Canada Sout h Other Tot al Total

Zealand Kingdom States Korea Kong East Asia Europe Africa World change

per cent

2000-01 13.8 8.7 24.5 11.0 4.0 5.5 6.3 3.6 3.7 4.6 2.3 3.7 3.0 2.3 5.7 1.4 3.4 13.1 4.7 1.4 5.5 132 n.a.

2001-02 11.1 8.9 24.3 11.3 5.2 4.9 6.1 3.5 3.9 5.5 1.8 3.0 2.4 2.7 4.8 1.9 3.5 12.2 4.0 1.2 3.9 126 -4.7

2002-03 11.0 8.7 23.7 11.3 7.1 4.7 5.6 3.3 3.4 4.7 1.9 2.7 2.6 1.9 4.3 1.7 2.5 10.9 3.1 1.5 4.1 121 -4.2

2003-04 12.6 10.9 28.1 10.3 9.1 4.6 6.3 4.5 3.7 6.5 1.7 3.8 2.5 2.4 4.5 2.5 2.9 10.8 3.5 1.7 4.0 137 13.42004-05 14.0 10.7 23.2 9.6 10.9 4.5 7.2 4.5 3.3 5.7 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.2 5.3 1.9 3.5 11.5 4.1 1.5 4.1 136 -0.9

2005-06 15.8 11.7 23.7 10.4 11.9 4.9 10.2 5.0 4.5 6.7 3.5 2.8 3.0 3.0 6.8 2.3 3.6 12.6 4.1 1.7 5.2 153 12.8

2006-07 15.8 12.0 24.4 10.2 15.3 5.3 12.7 5.3 4.5 6.9 4.4 3.1 3.2 3.4 7.6 3.7 3.7 13.6 4.5 1.7 6.0 167 9.3

2007-08 15.6 10.4 22.2 9.7 15.9 5.3 11.5 5.6 4.5 7.1 5.7 3.3 3.2 4.1 9.7 3.6 3.8 14.4 4.8 1.5 7.4 170 1.4

2008-09 15.3 8.7 23.4 9.6 17.7 5.5 13.8 6.7 4.8 7.5 7.4 3.3 3.8 4.4 12.3 4.7 4.1 14.3 5.3 1.9 9.0 183 8.0

2009-10 14.3 7.9 23.8 10.7 22.5 6.1 14.6 6.6 5.5 7.4 8.0 4.5 3.9 4.8 13.4 5.3 4.1 14.4 4.4 1.8 8.5 192 5.0

2010-11 16.4 8.4 22.6 10.4 25.8 6.1 13.4 7.0 5.3 6.9 9.7 5.2 4.4 5.2 14.0 5.2 3.7 14.5 4.5 1.9 9.3 200 4.0

2011-12 16.7 9.0 21.7 10.8 26.9 6.3 13.3 6.9 5.9 7.3 8.9 4.5 4.2 4.7 17.6 5.8 5.1 16.0 4.6 2.0 9.8 208 3.8

2012-13 16.9 9.4 21.4 10.9 29.2 6.5 13.4 7.0 6.0 7.2 9.3 4.7 4.2 4.7 18.0 5.9 5.6 16.2 4.6 2.0 10.1 213 2.7

2013-14 17.2 9.7 21.7 11.2 31.6 6.8 13.6 7.3 6.2 7.4 10.1 5.1 4.4 5.0 18.8 6.1 5.9 16.6 4.8 2.1 10.6 222 4.2

2014-15 17.7 10.0 22.3 11.6 34.3 7.1 14.2 7.6 6.5 7.6 10.9 5.5 4.6 5.5 19.6 6.4 6.0 17.3 5.0 2.2 11.1 233 4.9

2015-16 18.1 10.2 22.9 12.1 36.9 7.4 14.8 7.9 6.7 7.9 11.8 5.9 4.7 6.0 20.5 6.6 6.2 18.0 5.2 2.3 11.6 244 4.6

2016-17 18.5 10.3 23.4 12.6 39.4 7.6 15.4 8.2 6.9 8.2 12.8 6.3 4.9 6.5 21.2 6.9 6.3 18.6 5.4 2.4 12.1 254 4.2

2017-18 18.8 10.5 23.9 13.0 41.8 7.8 16.0 8.5 7.1 8.4 13.7 6.8 5.0 7.0 22.0 7.2 6.4 19.3 5.6 2.5 12.6 264 4.0

2018-19 19.2 10.6 24.3 13.5 44.4 8.0 16.6 8.8 7.4 8.7 14.7 7.2 5.2 7.6 22.7 7.4 6.5 19.9 5.8 2.6 13.2 274 3.9

2019-20 19.5 10.7 24.8 13.9 47.1 8.3 17.2 9.1 7.6 8.9 15.8 7.6 5.3 8.2 23.4 7.7 6.6 20.6 5.9 2.7 13.7 285 3.8

2020-21 19.7 10.9 25.2 14.4 49.8 8.5 17.8 9.4 7.8 9.2 16.9 8.1 5.5 8.9 24.2 7.9 6.7 21.2 6.1 2.8 14.2 295 3.7

2021-22 20.0 11.0 25.6 14.9 52.6 8.7 18.4 9.7 8.1 9.4 18.1 8.6 5.6 9.6 24.9 8.2 6.8 21.9 6.3 2.9 14.8 306 3.7

2001/02-2006/07 7.4 6.0 0.0 -1.9 23.9 1.8 15.9 8.6 2.9 4.6 19.5 1.1 5.8 4.8 9.7 14.1 1.5 2.2 2.5 6.9 9.0 5.8 -

2006/07-2011/12 1.2 -5.6 -2.3 1.1 12.0 3.7 1.0 5.5 5.6 1.0 15.0 7.3 5.5 6.6 18.2 9.3 6.4 3.2 0.2 2.7 10.2 4.4

2011/12-2016/17 2.0 2.8 1.5 3.1 8.0 3.7 3.0 3.5 3.4 2.4 7.6 7.3 3.1 6.9 3.9 3.6 4.4 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.3 4.1 -

2016/17-2021/22 1.6 1.3 1.8 3.4 6.0 2.8 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.0 7.3 6.4 2.8 8.1 3.2 3.4 1.4 3.3 3.0 3.8 4.0 3.8 -

2001/02-2011/12 4.2 0.0 -1.1 -0.4 17.8 2.7 8.2 7.0 4.2 2.8 17.2 4.2 5.7 5.7 13.9 11.7 3.9 2.7 1.4 4.8 9.6 5.1 -

2011/12-2021/22 1.8 2.1 1.7 3.3 7.0 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.3 2.7 7.4 6.8 2.9 7.5 3.5 3.5 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.0 -


Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology.

million



29/34

21

Table 9 International visitor nights in hotels, motels, guesthouses & serviced apartments by market, financial yearNew Japan U ni ted Uni ted Chi na S ingapore S out h Mal ay si a H ong Ger many Indi a Indones ia Thai land Mi ddl e Ot her F ranc e Ir el and O ther Canada S out h O ther Tot al Tot al

Zealand Kingdom States Korea Kong East Asia Europe Africa World change

per cent

2000-01 2.1 3.1 3.0 3.1 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.6 22.2 n.a.

2001-02 2.5 2.8 3.8 2.7 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.5 22.4 1.2

2002-03 2.4 2.9 3.7 2.8 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.4 21.3 -5.1

2003-04 2.9 2.8 4.1 2.7 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.6 22.6 6.22004-05 3.5 2.7 4.2 2.7 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 2.2 0.6 0.3 0.5 25.3 12.2

2005-06 3.7 2.7 4.7 3.3 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.5 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.6 28.1 10.9

2006-07 4.0 2.3 4.8 3.1 1.8 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 2.8 0.9 0.3 0.7 29.3 4.1

2007-08 3.9 2.0 4.0 3.3 2.1 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 2.4 0.8 0.3 0.9 28.1 -3.8

2008-09 3.5 1.5 3.7 2.7 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.3 2.3 0.8 0.3 0.8 25.2 -10.2

2009-10 3.3 1.4 3.0 2.9 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.8 24.0 -4.9

2010-11 3.5 1.3 3.2 2.7 2.1 1.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.5 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.9 25.8 7.4

2011-12 3.3 1.2 2.6 2.8 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.4 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.8 24.5 -5.1

2012-13 3.3 1.2 2.6 2.8 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.4 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.8 25.1 2.5

2013-14 3.4 1.2 2.6 2.9 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.4 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.9 26.0 3.8

2014-15 3.5 1.3 2.7 3.0 3.3 1.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.4 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.9 27.2 4.3

2015-16 3.6 1.3 2.8 3.1 3.4 1.6 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.5 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.9 28.2 3.8

2016-17 3.6 1.4 2.9 3.2 3.6 1.6 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.5 2.3 0.8 0.2 1.0 29.2 3.5

2017-18 3.7 1.4 3.0 3.2 3.7 1.7 0.9 1.0 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.5 2.4 0.8 0.2 1.0 30.1 3.2

2018-19 3.8 1.4 3.1 3.3 3.9 1.7 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.5 2.5 0.8 0.3 1.1 31.0 3.1

2019-20 3.9 1.5 3.1 3.4 4.0 1.7 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.5 2.6 0.9 0.3 1.1 32.0 3.0

2020-21 3.9 1.5 3.2 3.5 4.1 1.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.5 2.6 0.9 0.3 1.2 32.9 3.0

2021-22 4.0 1.5 3.3 3.5 4.3 1.8 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.5 2.7 0.9 0.3 1.2 33.9 2.9

2001/02-2006/07 10.0 -3.9 4.8 2.4 18.0 3.0 15.3 5.7 0.0 -4.0 26.6 4.0 5.8 7.2 4.4 11.4 21.8 6.7 9.3 2.8 6.1 5.5 -

2006/07-2011/12 -4.2 -13.0 -11.5 -1.7 6.8 0.7 -9.8 6.1 1.4 -3.9 3.7 8.9 -6.3 2.8 3.3 -0.9 -6.0 -6.4 -5.5 -7.1 2.1 -3.5 -

2011/12-2016/17 2.3 3.2 2.3 2.2 7.7 2.8 2.5 3.1 2.0 2.1 6.5 5.6 2.8 6.1 3.4 3.4 4.7 3.1 3.5 4.4 4.4 3.6 -

2016/17-2021/22 1.8 2.3 2.7 2.4 3.5 1.9 3.0 2.5 1.7 2.6 6.9 4.3 2.2 6.7 2.9 3.5 2.2 3.5 3.2 4.4 4.3 3.0 -

2001/02-2011/12 2.7 -8.6 -3.7 0.3 12.3 1.9 2.0 5.9 0.7 -3.9 1 4.5 6.4 -0.4 5.0 3.8 5.1 7.0 -0.1 1.7 -2.3 4.1 0.9 -

2011/12-2021/22 2.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 5.6 2.4 2.7 2.8 1.9 2.4 6.7 5.0 2.5 6.4 3.1 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.4 4.4 4.3 3.3 -


Historical estimates for international visitor nights have changed due to a slight change in the methodology.

million



30/34

22

Table 10 International leisure visitor nights by market, financial yearNew United United South Hong Middle Other Other South Other Total Total


per cent

2000-01 9.6 6.4 21.2 6.6 1.4 2.4 3.3 1.6 1.2 3.4 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.7 2.9 1.0 2.8 8.6 3.1 1.0 3.1 84.1 n.a.

2001-02 6.8 4.6 17.1 5.4 1.7 2.0 2.5 1.5 1.3 3.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.7 2.0 0.8 2.4 8.1 2.6 0.9 2.1 69.3 -17.6

2002-03 7.1 5.4 18.4 5.0 1.6 1.9 2.5 1.4 1.3 3.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.8 0.8 1.9 6.9 1.9 1.0 1.8 67.2 -3.0

2003-04 8.2 5.6 20.7 4.3 2.3 1.9 3.1 1.7 1.2 4.3 0.5 1.0 0.6 1.6 1.8 0.8 2.1 6.8 2.1 1.1 2.0 73.9 10.02004-05 9.9 6.7 19.7 4.9 3.2 1.9 3.4 1.7 1.4 4.1 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.6 2.2 1.2 2.5 7.8 3.0 1.1 2.1 80.5 8.9

2005-06 9.8 6.5 20.1 5.2 3.5 1.9 4.5 1.5 1.7 4.8 1.2 0.8 0.9 2.0 3.1 1.4 2.5 8.9 2.9 1.0 2.4 86.6 7.6

2006-07 10.3 6.3 20.3 5.2 4.8 2.0 6.3 1.8 1.6 4.7 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.9 3.6 2.5 2.6 9.4 3.2 1.1 2.6 93.7 8.3

2007-08 9.7 5.8 18.5 4.8 3.7 1.7 5.7 1.8 1.7 5.1 1.8 1.0 1.1 2.0 4.5 2.5 2.8 9.9 3.3 1.1 2.9 91.5 -2.4

2008-09 9.7 5.2 19.7 5.2 4.3 1.9 5.8 2.2 1.9 5.5 2.1 1.0 1.0 2.1 6.1 3.1 3.1 9.6 3.5 1.4 3.8 98.0 7.2

2009-10 9.4 4.8 19.7 5.8 5.9 2.1 7.1 2.1 2.2 5.1 2.6 1.5 1.3 2.1 6.2 3.7 2.8 10.0 2.9 1.3 4.0 102.4 4.5

2010-11 10.2 5.1 17.7 5.7 7.7 2.3 7.1 2.5 2.1 5.0 3.3 1.6 1.5 2.3 6.6 3.4 1.9 9.7 3.1 1.3 4.8 104.9 2.4

2011-12 10.6 4.6 16.5 5.7 8.5 2.3 7.1 2.4 2.6 5.1 3.9 1.5 1.7 1.8 7.9 3.9 2.5 10.4 3.0 1.3 5.0 108.3 3.2

2012-13 10.6 4.7 16.1 5.9 9.7 2.3 7.0 2.5 2.6 5.1 4.1 1.6 1.7 1.8 8.1 3.9 2.5 10.4 3.0 1.3 5.0 110.0 1.5

2013-14 10.7 4.9 16.3 6.0 10.7 2.4 7.1 2.6 2.6 5.2 4.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 8.4 4.0 2.5 10.6 3.2 1.4 5.1 113.5 3.2

2014-15 10.9 5.1 16.7 6.3 11.6 2.5 7.4 2.7 2.6 5.4 4.8 1.8 1.8 2.1 8.8 4.2 2.6 11.1 3.3 1.5 5.4 118.5 4.3

2015-16 11.2 5.2 17.2 6.5 12.4 2.5 7.8 2.7 2.7 5.5 5.1 1.9 1.9 2.2 9.2 4.4 2.7 11.5 3.4 1.6 5.6 123.1 3.9

2016-17 11.4 5.3 17.5 6.8 13.0 2.6 8.1 2.8 2.7 5.7 5.4 2.0 2.0 2.4 9.6 4.5 2.8 12.0 3.6 1.6 5.8 127.4 3.5

2017-18 11.5 5.4 17.9 7.0 13.5 2.6 8.3 2.9 2.7 5.8 5.7 2.1 2.0 2.5 9.9 4.7 2.9 12.4 3.7 1.7 6.0 131.4 3.1

2018-19 11.7 5.5 18.2 7.3 14.0 2.6 8.6 3.0 2.7 6.0 6.0 2.2 2.1 2.7 10.2 4.9 2.9 12.9 3.8 1.8 6.2 135.3 3.0

2019-20 11.9 5.6 18.5 7.5 14.5 2.7 8.9 3.1 2.7 6.2 6.3 2.3 2.2 2.9 10.5 5.0 3.0 13.3 3.9 1.9 6.4 139.1 2.8

2020-21 12.0 5.6 18.9 7.8 14.9 2.7 9.2 3.1 2.8 6.3 6.6 2.4 2.2 3.1 10.8 5.2 3.0 13.7 4.1 2.0 6.6 143.0 2.8

2021-22 12.1 5.7 19.2 8.0 15.4 2.8 9.5 3.2 2.8 6.5 6.9 2.5 2.3 3.3 11.1 5.3 3.0 14.2 4.2 2.0 6.8 146.9 2.7

2001/02-2006/07 8.6 6.6 3.5 -0.7 23.1 0.2 20.2 3.6 3.8 4.8 22.0 3.4 6.5 2.1 12.5 26.6 1.5 3.1 3.9 6.0 4.6 6.2 -

2006/07-2011/12 0.6 -5.8 -4.1 2.0 12.1 2.4 2.4 6.5 9.8 1.6 20.5 9.5 11.9 -1.2 16.9 9.7 -0.8 1.9 -1.3 2.7 13.9 2.9

2011/12-2016/17 1.4 2.6 1.3 3.3 8.8 2.2 2.6 3.1 1.1 2.3 6.7 6.2 3.3 5.5 3.8 3.0 2.3 2.9 3.6 4.7 3.0 3.3 -

2016/17-2021/22 1.3 1.6 1.8 3.6 3.4 1.5 3.3 2.6 0.5 2.6 5.3 4.4 2.8 6.8 3.1 3.2 1.7 3.5 3.3 4.5 3.3 2.9 -

2001/02-2011/12 4.5 0.2 -0.4 0.6 17.4 1.3 10.9 5.0 6.8 3.2 21.2 6.4 9.2 0.5 14.7 17.8 0.3 2.5 1.3 4.3 9.1 4.6 -

2011/12-2021/22 1.4 2.1 1.6 3.4 6.0 1.9 3.0 2.8 0.8 2.5 6.0 5.3 3.1 6.1 3.4 3.1 2.0 3.2 3.4 4.6 3.1 3.1 -



million


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23

Table 11 Total inbound tourism expenditure by market, financial year(presented in real terms and 2012 Q2 as base period)

New United United South Hong Middle Other Other South Other Total Total


per cent

2000-01 1 958 4 077 4 349 3 812 1 016 1 224 1 015 682 861 1 141 457 630 383 340 968 300 529 2 783 780 285 1 040 28 629 n.a.

2001-02 1 849 3 300 4 617 3 910 1 239 1 265 985 719 1 001 1 196 345 578 425 406 879 328 427 2 498 726 271 695 27 656 -3.42002-03 1 934 3 054 4 667 3 111 1 327 1 176 1 030 653 739 1 076 285 501 426 296 804 317 407 2 483 647 312 587 25 831 -6.6

2003-04 2 023 2 992 4 680 2 840 1 518 898 1 034 790 693 1 134 215 538 430 395 846 356 505 2 289 583 428 552 25 736 -0.4

2004-05 2 287 2 994 4 275 2 694 1 883 898 1 163 708 637 1 041 342 424 420 266 760 312 562 2 210 675 381 756 25 686 -0.2

2005-06 2 409 3 136 4 227 2 878 1 845 896 1 388 710 717 1 022 395 429 375 307 826 360 667 2 175 715 339 888 26 702 4.0

2006-07 2 428 2 368 4 672 2 642 2 018 976 1 667 761 736 1 078 452 412 369 398 864 491 650 2 315 778 368 833 27 277 2.2

2007-08 2 509 2 004 4 220 2 750 2 454 1 146 1 455 925 739 1 152 729 513 419 631 1 033 529 659 2 529 852 433 921 28 601 4.9

2008-09 2 228 1 922 4 004 2 655 2 856 1 090 1 397 952 776 1 186 846 469 483 647 1 284 644 768 2 595 858 474 1 157 29 289 2.4

2009-10 2 130 1 505 3 378 2 271 3 063 1 091 1 251 1 011 755 1 063 791 513 441 573 1 303 612 599 2 315 712 312 1 092 26 783 -8.6

2010-11 2 211 1 451 3 092 2 187 3 554 1 212 1 276 1 032 832 905 945 628 507 438 1 295 556 521 2 166 688 342 1 157 26 995 0.8

2011-12 2 240 1 446 2 822 2 297 3 792 1 199 1 295 1 029 790 887 712 648 398 407 1 398 554 660 2 026 647 357 1 153 26 757 -0.9

2012-13 2 244 1 529 2 785 2 318 4 167 1 228 1 279 1 046 798 881 758 672 402 415 1 438 569 719 2 049 659 358 1 194 27 507 2.8

2013-14 2 275 1 543 2 828 2 364 4 535 1 280 1 300 1 091 832 896 837 724 423 440 1 506 590 755 2 096 687 370 1 241 28 613 4.0

2014-15 2 320 1 562 2 907 2 436 4 916 1 338 1 352 1 140 868 926 923 776 447 481 1 579 624 780 2 179 721 388 1 297 29 960 4.7

2015-16 2 368 1 568 2 981 2 512 5 268 1 386 1 405 1 187 902 954 999 828 468 521 1 650 652 798 2 261 750 406 1 349 31 215 4.2

2016-17 2 410 1 577 3 044 2 584 5 614 1 430 1 456 1 234 935 982 1 094 876 489 561 1 720 680 819 2 338 778 422 1 397 32 440 3.9

2017-18 2 445 1 584 3 106 2 655 5 955 1 473 1 506 1 280 967 1 009 1 193 925 509 604 1 789 709 838 2 416 803 438 1 445 33 649 3.7

2018-19 2 475 1 589 3 164 2 724 6 304 1 516 1 556 1 326 999 1 035 1 301 976 529 651 1 855 739 855 2 494 828 452 1 491 34 859 3.6

2019-20 2 502 1 595 3 221 2 793 6 669 1 559 1 603 1 373 1 032 1 060 1 417 1 027 550 701 1 920 770 872 2 571 855 467 1 541 36 098 3.6

2020-21 2 526 1 593 3 278 2 865 7 048 1 604 1 651 1 421 1 065 1 086 1 541 1 081 571 755 1 986 800 887 2 649 881 481 1 591 37 362 3.5

2021-22 2 550 1 592 3 336 2 938 7 434 1 650 1 700 1 471 1 100 1 113 1 676 1 138 593 813 2 053 830 903 2 728 909 496 1 642 38 666 3.5

2001/02-2006/07 5.6 -6.4 0.2 -7.5 10.3 -5.1 11.1 1.1 -6.0 -2.1 5.5 -6.5 -2.8 -0.4 -0.3 8.4 8.8 -1.5 1.4 6.3 3.7 -0.3 -

2006/07-2011/12 -1.6 -9.4 -9.6 -2.8 13.4 4.2 -4.9 6.2 1.4 -3.8 9.5 9.5 1.6 0.5 10.1 2.4 0.3 -2.6 -3.6 -0.7 6.7 -0.42011/12-2016/17 1.5 1.7 1.5 2.4 8.2 3.6 2.4 3.7 3.4 2.1 9.0 6.2 4.2 6.6 4.2 4.2 4.4 2.9 3.8 3.4 3.9 3.9 -

2016/17-2021/22 1.1 0.2 1.8 2.6 5.8 2.9 3.1 3.6 3.3 2.5 8.9 5.4 3.9 7.7 3.6 4.1 2.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.6 -

2001/02-2011/12 1.9 -7.9 -4.8 -5.2 11.8 -0.5 2.8 3.7 -2.3 -2.9 7.5 1.2 -0.7 0.0 4.8 5.4 4.5 -2.1 -1.1 2.8 5.2 -0.3 -

2011/12-2021/22 1.3 1.0 1.7 2.5 7.0 3.2 2.8 3.6 3.4 2.3 8.9 5.8 4.1 7.2 3.9 4.1 3.2 3.0 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.8 -

Numbers shaded are forecasts. `


$ million


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24

Table 12 Total leisure inbound tourism expenditure by market, financial year(presented in real terms and 2012 Q2 as base period)

New United United South Hong Middle Other Other South Other Total Total

Zealand Japan Kingdom States China S'pore Korea Malaysia Kong Germany India Indonesia Thailand East Asia France Ireland Europe Canada Africa W orld change

$ million per cent

2000-01 1 270 3 491 3 709 2 339 388 650 606 353 494 934 142 242 150 184 547 187 471 1 890 564 171 569 19 352 n.a.

2001-02 1 189 2 583 3 661 2 046 542 648 575 364 522 942 130 197 177 308 458 195 331 1 778 525 171 362 17 703 -8.52002-03 1 306 2 467 3 949 1 664 491 632 663 315 393 868 94 198 156 198 405 217 353 1 719 445 182 332 17 047 -3.7

2003-04 1 402 2 281 3 804 1 395 480 432 650 359 302 808 69 198 130 224 400 215 403 1 549 394 301 257 16 053 -5.8

2004-05 1 610 2 411 3 703 1 538 644 442 756 340 348 802 117 140 128 202 381 203 480 1 582 495 260 375 16 960 5.6

2005-06 1 626 2 355 3 628 1 557 722 391 813 281 367 798 119 147 127 205 411 249 509 1 522 508 188 413 16 936 -0.1

2006-07 1 637 1 787 4 025 1 509 753 437 1 032 330 341 818 122 140 122 236 411 337 537 1 689 554 225 394 17 435 2.9

2007-08 1 649 1 495 3 550 1 488 864 440 861 357 352 828 191 171 133 324 457 375 565 1 763 592 232 422 17 109 -1.9

2008-09 1 477 1 450 3 368 1 440 1 114 461 679 390 350 913 178 170 134 293 577 432 652 1 752 563 272 507 17 171 0.4

2009-10 1 414 1 059 2 769 1 222 951 452 642 421 324 771 173 183 118 215 503 429 472 1 632 494 196 496 14 940 -13.0

2010-11 1 371 993 2 432 1 089 1 162 496 714 451 390 669 199 235 160 169 484 363 320 1 481 443 187 531 14 340 -4.0

2011-12 1 412 968 2 106 1 183 1 448 467 695 424 360 648 225 261 123 143 499 364 381 1 293 411 216 492 14 120 -1.5

2012-13 1 405 971 2 056 1 200 1 666 471 686 430 364 649 238 275 124 142 510 368 388 1 294 416 217 492 14 361 1.7

2013-14 1 419 993 2 079 1 223 1 843 482 697 446 374 658 261 297 129 150 532 379 398 1 317 432 224 504 14 836 3.3

2014-15 1 444 1 008 2 136 1 269 1 987 496 725 461 385 679 283 317 136 162 561 401 416 1 375 453 236 524 15 454 4.2

2015-16 1 476 1 016 2 194 1 312 2 096 506 752 475 395 698 306 336 143 174 589 422 433 1 434 470 248 543 16 017 3.6

2016-17 1 503 1 020 2 240 1 355 2 190 514 779 488 404 717 329 352 150 186 616 443 448 1 491 486 259 560 16 531 3.2

2017-18 1 526 1 023 2 284 1 397 2 268 522 804 501 413 735 352 369 156 199 642 464 462 1 546 502 270 577 17 012 2.9

2018-19 1 547 1 025 2 326 1 441 2 339 529 830 513 420 753 376 385 162 212 666 484 475 1 602 517 280 594 17 475 2.7

2019-20 1 567 1 025 2 367 1 485 2 408 536 854 525 428 769 402 401 168 227 688 505 487 1 657 534 290 611 17 933 2.6

2020-21 1 586 1 025 2 409 1 530 2 475 543 879 537 435 787 429 417 173 242 711 526 499 1 712 550 299 627 18 392 2.6

2021-22 1 604 1 024 2 452 1 577 2 537 551 904 549 443 804 457 434 179 259 735 548 511 1 769 567 309 644 18 856 2.5

2001/02-2006/07 6.6 -7.1 1.9 -5.9 6.8 -7.6 12.4 -1.9 -8.2 -2.8 -1.2 -6.6 -7.1 -5.2 -2.1 11.6 10.1 -1.0 1.1 5.6 1.7 -0.3 -

2006/07-2011/12 -2.9 -11.5 -12.2 -4.7 14.0 1.3 -7.6 5.1 1.1 -4.6 13.0 13.3 0.1 -9.5 4.0 1.6 -6.6 -5.2 -5.8 -0.8 4.6 -4.12011/12-2016/17 1.3 1.1 1.2 2.7 8.6 1.9 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.1 7.9 6.2 4.0 5.4 4.3 4.0 3.3 2.9 3.4 3.7 2.6 3.2 -

2016/17-2021/22 1.3 0.1 1.8 3.1 3.0 1.4 3.0 2.4 1.8 2.3 6.8 4.2 3.7 6.8 3.6 4.3 2.6 3.5 3.1 3.6 2.8 2.7 -

2001/02-2011/12 1.7 -9.4 -5.4 -5.3 10.3 -3.2 1.9 1.5 -3.6 -3.7 5.6 2.9 -3.6 -7.4 0.9 6.5 1.4 -3.1 -2.4 2.4 3.1 -2.2 -

2011/12-2021/22 1.3 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.8 1.7 2.7 2.6 2.1 2.2 7.4 5.2 3.8 6.1 3.9 4.2 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.6 2.7 2.9 -




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Tourism Research Australia

Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism

GPO Box 1564

Canberra ACT 2601

ABN: 46 252 861 927

Contact us at [email protected]

Documents

Forecast 2012 Issue 2