Forage and Hay Outlook€¦ · 17/10/2018 · Forage and Hay Outlook. The Southern Region covers a large area with wide climate, soil, terrain, forage species, and livestock system

Forage and Hay Outlook

Chris PrevattUniversity of Florida, Extension Economist

Range Cattle Research and Education Center2018 Southern Outlook Conference

September 26, 2018


The Southern Region covers a large area with wide climate, soil, terrain, forage species, and livestock system differences that influence the production and harvest of forage and hay crops.

Forage and Hay Outlook• U.S. Pasture and Range Conditions• Weather Outlook• U.S. Forage Supply• Value of Forage Production

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US RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITIONPercent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly

Avg. 2012-16 2017 2018

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

Livestock Marketing Information Center

G-NP-3009/24/18

Improving fall forage conditions

G-NP-3109/24/18

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WESTERN REGION RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITIONPercent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly

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GREAT PLAINS REGION RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION

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One-Month Precipitation Outlook,

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Three-Month Precipitation Outlook, December - February

Three-Month Temperature Outlook,

January - March

Three-Month Precipitation Outlook,

February - April

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03/26/18

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U.S. HAY & HAY PRODUCT EXPORTSAnnual

Other Hay Alfalfa Hay Alfalfa Cubes Alfalfa Meal & Pellets

Data Source: USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC


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ALFALFA HAY EXPORTSAnnual

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OTHER HAY EXPORTSAnnual

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Hay, Forage, and Feedstuff Prices

G-P-1208/31/18

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MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR

$ Per Ton

ALFALFA HAY – MONTHLY AVERAGE PRICEReceived by Farmers, U.S., Crop Year

Avg. 12/13-16/17 2017/18 2018/19

Data Source: USDA-NASS


G-P-1308/31/18

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MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR

$ Per Ton

OTHER HAY – MONTHLY AVERAGE PRICEReceived by Farmers, U.S., Crop Year

Avg. 12/13-16/17 2017/18 2018/19

Data Source: USDA-NASS


G-P-0709/24/18

250

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JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Ton

CENTRAL ILLINOIS SOYBEAN MEAL (48%) PRICESWeekly

Avg. 2012-16 2017 2018

Data Source: USDA-AMS


09/24/18

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JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Ton

DISTILLERS DRIED GRAIN PRICESChicago, Illinois, Weekly

Avg. 2012-16 2017 2018

Data Source: USDA-AMS


Corn Prices Impact The Value of Forage

CME Corn Futures• December 2018 – December 2020• $3.63 - $4.10, $/bushel

• Cheap corn keeps “Cost of Gain” low in the feedlot

• Cheap corn limits “Value of Gain” from grass for Stocker and Cow-Calf producers and the value of hay/haylage*

*Assuming that corn continues to be the benchmark to value feedstuffs

08/31/18

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$/cwt.

KANSAS FEEDLOT CLOSEOUTSFeeding Costs per Cwt., Steers

Avg. 2012/16 2017 2018

Data Source: KSU Focus on Feedlots, Compiled by LMIC


08/31/18

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

$/cwt.

KANSAS FEEDLOT CLOSEOUTSFeeding Costs per Cwt., Steers

Avg. 2012/16 2017 2018

Data Source: KSU Focus on Feedlots, Compiled by LMIC


The cost of gain information in the Focus on Feedlot survey is Total cost of gain and represents all costs associated with feeding cattle (excluding interest on cattle or feed).

Stocker Producers• Current Avg. “Value of Gain” of $0.50-$0.75/lb.

isn’t very appealing.

• Producers must either….• Find ways to lower their cost of gain (focus on

most productive forage sites, procure stockers with a higher level of performance, lower health risks, etc.)

• Get Lucky when they bet on the improving market prices and calf gains to enhance VOG

Green Grass Fever

Forage Cost of Gain

Projected 2018-2019 Forage Cost of Gain

• Wheat Pasture : $0.30 - $0.45/lb.• SE Cool-Season Annual Forages: $0.50 - $0.65/lb.• Summer Annuals: $0.30 - $0.40/lb.


What will ALL of This Mean Moving Forward…

Even with “good weather for growing and harvesting and all our technological advances” it continues to be cheaper to

let the cows harvest the grass.

Pasture and Range Conditions overall are expected to be about average.• Excellent• Good• Fair• Poor• Very Poor

Cow-Calf Producers Need to:

• Continue to wage war on forage and feeding costs (focus on mgt. & resources)

• Prepare for the next drought…

168 Samples, Avg. 8.11% CP

168 Samples, Avg. 51.39% CP

You can still go broke with good soil…- Chris Prevatt


Chris PrevattUniversity of Florida, Extension Economist

Range Cattle Research and Education Center2018 Southern Outlook Conference

September 26, 2018

Documents

Forage and Hay Outlook€¦ · 17/10/2018 · Forage and Hay Outlook. The Southern Region covers a large area with wide climate, soil, terrain, forage species, and livestock system