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Rio Tinto Limited 120 Collins Street Melbourne 3000 Australia Postal Address: GPO Box 384D Melbourne 3001 Australia T +61 (0) 3 9283 3333 F +61 (0) 3 9283 3707 Registered in Australia Rio Tinto Limited 120 Collins Street Melbourne 3000 Australia ABN 96 004 458 404 ASX Market Announcements Office Australian Securities Exchange Exchange Centre 20 Bridge Street SYDNEY NSW 2000 4 March 2013 Dear Sir / Madam, Attached is a presentation given to analysts in Sydney today, 4 March 2013, by Rio Tinto’s head of economics and markets, Vivek Tulpulé. Yours faithfully, Tim Paine Joint Company Secretary For personal use only

For personal use only - ASX · Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match

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Page 1: For personal use only - ASX · Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match

Rio Tinto Limited 120 Collins Street Melbourne 3000 Australia Postal Address: GPO Box 384D Melbourne 3001 Australia T +61 (0) 3 9283 3333 F +61 (0) 3 9283 3707

Registered in Australia Rio Tinto Limited 120 Collins Street Melbourne 3000 Australia ABN 96 004 458 404

ASX Market Announcements Office Australian Securities Exchange Exchange Centre 20 Bridge Street SYDNEY NSW 2000

4 March 2013

Dear Sir / Madam, Attached is a presentation given to analysts in Sydney today, 4 March 2013, by Rio Tinto’s head of economics and markets, Vivek Tulpulé. Yours faithfully, Tim Paine Joint Company Secretary

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Page 2: For personal use only - ASX · Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match

Economic Outlook and Commodity PricesVivek Tulpulé

Head of Economics and Markets

4 March 2013

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Page 3: For personal use only - ASX · Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match

Cautionary statement

This presentation has been prepared by Rio Tinto plc and Rio Tinto Limited (“Rio Tinto”) and consisting of the slides for a presentation concerning Rio Tinto. By reviewing/attending this presentation you agree to be bound by the following conditions.

Forward-looking statementsThis presentation includes forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical facts included in thispresentation, including, without limitation, those regarding Rio Tinto’s financial position, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations (including development plans and objectives relating to Rio Tinto’s products, production forecasts and reserve and resource positions), are forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Rio Tinto, or industryresults, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding Rio Tinto’s present and future business strategies and the environment in which Rio Tinto will operate in the future. Among the important factors that could cause Rio Tinto’s actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, among others, levels of actual production during any period, levels of demand and market prices, the ability to produce and transport products profitably, the impact of foreign currency exchange rates on market prices and operating costs, operational problems, political uncertainty and economic conditions in relevant areas of the world, the actions of competitors, activities by governmental authorities such as changes in taxation or regulation and such other risk factors identified in Rio Tinto's most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") or Form 6-Ks furnished to the SEC. Forward-looking statements should, therefore, be construed in light of such risk factors and undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation.

Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match or exceed its historical published earnings per share.

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Page 4: For personal use only - ASX · Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match

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China cyclical momentum and reform process

OECD financial fragility

Loose monetary conditions - Quantitative Easing and potential unwinding

Macroeconomic influence on commodity prices will continue through 2013

Cost escalation and supply cycles For

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Page 5: For personal use only - ASX · Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match

Mixed performance in OECDModest US recovery while Eurozone and Japan still weak

European bond yield fall highlighting the reduced risk of Eurozone breakup

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Feb-

13

Ten year bond yields

Spain Italy

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12

US Eurozone Japan

Above 50 = Expansion

Below 50 = Contraction

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Page 6: For personal use only - ASX · Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match

Expectations for a strong first half in China and moderation in the second half

Inflation is benign but residential housing costs are a leading indicator of a pick-up in CPI

A sharp increase in bank credit and banker’s acceptances is supporting current pick up

Land sales have increased sharply with the pick up in residential sales and prices

Leading indicators have picked up pace; decline in flash February PMI likely due to CNY effects

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

J-10 J-10 J-11 J-11 J-12 J-12 J-13

RM

B B

illio

n

Total Social Financing, 3mma

New Banker's Acceptance Bills New Trust and Entrusted LoansNew Bank Loans

90

95

100

105

110

40

45

50

55

60

J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13

Leading Index & HSBC PMI

HSBC Economic Climate Leading Index-RHS

100101102103104105106107108

J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13

Inflation

CPI CPI Residence

‐50%

‐30%

‐10%

10%

30%

50%

J‐10 D‐10 J‐11 D‐11 J‐12 D‐12

Residential Land Sales Growth in133 Cities3mma YoY

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Page 7: For personal use only - ASX · Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match

Aluminium capacity additions and stocks continue to weigh on marketStrong growth in China alumina imports has been due to concerns over availability of imported bauxite

Outside of China financing deals will continue to tie up metal away from the physical market

Source: Goldman Sachs Source: GTIS

Greater semi’s exports from China risk market over supply (‘000tpy, Aluminium equivalent)

6

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Jul-2010 Jan-2011 Jul-2011 Jan-2012 Jul-2012

Alumina Bauxite (Kt AL2O3)

China bauxite and alumina imports(expressed as Kt AL2O3 equivalent)

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Page 8: For personal use only - ASX · Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match

Copper short term small surplus, but longer term supply response required in an increasingly challenged industry

Expectations of near term supply growth, but still a need for significant new supply in long term

LME stocks have been rising, particularly in Europe as warehouse owners attract material to earn rent

Source: WoodMacKenzie

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000Ja

n 12

Feb

12M

ar 1

2

Apr 1

2M

ay 1

2Ju

n 12

Jul 1

2

Aug

12

Sep

12

Oct

12

Nov

12

Dec

12

Jan

13

Feb

13

Global Europe (rhs)

LME Copper inventories by location, t

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022

Possible Projects

Probable Projects

Highly Probable Projects

Base Case ProductionCapability

Primary Demand

Global copper production and primary demand Mt

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Page 9: For personal use only - ASX · Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match

Pigment consumption per capita 1995-2011Pigment production accounts for 90% of TiO2 use

Long run demand fundamentals are strong for TiO2

Approximate population in 2020 shown

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Page 10: For personal use only - ASX · Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match

Structural supply constraints remain a long term challenge for coalsAlternative to blast furnace technology unlikely at long run HCC prices below $200/t based on consensus prices

Chinese and Indian imports - price opportunism and structural supply deficits

Source: Salva, GTIS, Global Coal

Error bars are +/- 2 Stdevs

Source: Rio Tinto analysis. Assuming long run consensus prices.

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0

50

100

150

200

250

0

50

100

150

200

250

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Thermal Coal US$/t

Mt

ChinaIndiaNewc

0

50

100

150

200

250

DRI (Gas) + EAF with carbon DRI (Gas) + EAF withoutcarbon

HCC $/t FOB

Australia

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Page 11: For personal use only - ASX · Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match

Iron ore supply continues to be exposed to downside shocksIndian exports continue to be constrained.We expect a return to market, at much lower levels

Iron ore forward curve in backwardation

Source: Platts, SGX Source: Louis Dreyfus, Port Authorities, RT Analysis

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11 Jan‐12 Jan‐13

West coast

East coast

Indian exports share ofseaborne trade

Annualised (Mt) 

10

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Mar‐10 Dec‐10 Sep‐11 Jun‐12 Mar‐13 Dec‐13 Sep‐14

Forward Curve (1 Mar 2013)

Platts IODEX 62%Fe

US$/dmt. FOB WA, real 2013

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Page 12: For personal use only - ASX · Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match

Steep iron ore cost curve provides scope for price fly-ups2012 Industry cost curve($/wmt CFR)

Source: Rio Tinto

Note: Includes shipping and sustaining capital expenditure and is adjusted for inflation and FX

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

FMG Pilbara Vale

BHP Pilbara RTIO assets

Mtpa

$/wmt CFR 

Cumulative capacity

RT Pilbara

IOC

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Page 13: For personal use only - ASX · Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match

Forecast

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Global peaks: finished steel per capita intensitiesASEAN, Brazil, India and Africa unlikely to peak <2040

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Kg per person

China

Greece

Qatar

United Arab Emirates

South Korea

Austria

Ireland

FinlandSpain

Italy

Portugal

Canada

Denmark

Singapore

Hong KongTaiwan

Switzerland

Norway

Japan

Germany

SwedenBelgium-Luxembourg

Australia

FranceNetherlands

USA

UK

• Small open export orientated economies

• Europe

• RoW

• China

• ASEAN

• IndiaSize = population at peak

India and ASEAN economies expected to increase in steel intensity progressively but not peak before 2040.F

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Page 14: For personal use only - ASX · Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match

Detailed China bottom-up demand analysis – example for machinery sector

50-69 HP

25-49 HP

>100 HP

ClassAgriculture

Tractors

70-120 HP>120 HP

Source: Expert surveys, Rio Tinto analysis

Compact tractors

Utility tractors

High-power tractors

Harvester

Combined harvester

ClassConstruction

<15t

15-30t

>30t

<5t

6t

>6t1

5t

Excavator

Wheeled loader

20-30t31-50t51-100t

20-3031-50t

20-30t31-50t51-100t>100t

Mining vehicle

Coal shuttle cars

Shearer

Mining Class

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Steel 2012 (Mt)

CAGR 2012-2030

8.8Mt

6.5%

14.3Mt

-0.4%

21.2Mt

3.3%

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Page 15: For personal use only - ASX · Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match

Appendix

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Page 16: For personal use only - ASX · Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match

RuralNational

Stylised overview of Chinese commodity demand modelling framework

SectorsIntensity by building type kg/m2

IndustrialCommercial

ResidentialNew floor space m2

DemolitionReplacement factor by product % and life cycle

SectorsFloor space stock Sqm

ExportsPower Generation

SectorsIntensity by M&E class kg/productive capacity

AgricultureMining

ConstructionNew demand required to satisfy production

Mac

hine

ry a

nd

Equ

ipm

ent

Scrap and replacement Replacement factor by product %

SectorsStock of M&E by sector GDP

Bui

ldin

g an

d C

onst

ruct

ion

Volume factors Intensity factors

National level macro forecasts

City level forecasts • Population

• GDP • Consumer and Industry

trends

Top down and bottom up approach leads to consistent stories across commodities demand

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Page 17: For personal use only - ASX · Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match

Source: Expert surveys, Rio Tinto analysis

Axle▪ Axle housing Cockpit▪ Control unitEngine▪ Oil block▪ Oil filter housing▪ AC tubes▪ AC condenser▪ Motor components Hydraulics▪ Pump housing▪ Interface sealRadiatorTransmission▪ Gear box wear ring▪ Wet clutch friction plate▪ Synchronizer blocker

rings▪ Other parts Throughout▪ Cables▪ Gaskets▪ Nameplates ▪ Other electrical parts

Cu Al

Commodity

“While HP-driven components are concentrated in the engine and transmission, weight-driven components are found throughout the tractor”

- U.S. Advanced Automotive expert

Fe

Example of breakdown used to determine commodity intensity16

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