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Rio Tinto Limited 120 Collins Street Melbourne 3000 Australia Postal Address: GPO Box 384D Melbourne 3001 Australia T +61 (0) 3 9283 3333 F +61 (0) 3 9283 3707
Registered in Australia Rio Tinto Limited 120 Collins Street Melbourne 3000 Australia ABN 96 004 458 404
ASX Market Announcements Office Australian Securities Exchange Exchange Centre 20 Bridge Street SYDNEY NSW 2000
4 March 2013
Dear Sir / Madam, Attached is a presentation given to analysts in Sydney today, 4 March 2013, by Rio Tinto’s head of economics and markets, Vivek Tulpulé. Yours faithfully, Tim Paine Joint Company Secretary
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Economic Outlook and Commodity PricesVivek Tulpulé
Head of Economics and Markets
4 March 2013
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Cautionary statement
This presentation has been prepared by Rio Tinto plc and Rio Tinto Limited (“Rio Tinto”) and consisting of the slides for a presentation concerning Rio Tinto. By reviewing/attending this presentation you agree to be bound by the following conditions.
Forward-looking statementsThis presentation includes forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical facts included in thispresentation, including, without limitation, those regarding Rio Tinto’s financial position, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations (including development plans and objectives relating to Rio Tinto’s products, production forecasts and reserve and resource positions), are forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Rio Tinto, or industryresults, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.
Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding Rio Tinto’s present and future business strategies and the environment in which Rio Tinto will operate in the future. Among the important factors that could cause Rio Tinto’s actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, among others, levels of actual production during any period, levels of demand and market prices, the ability to produce and transport products profitably, the impact of foreign currency exchange rates on market prices and operating costs, operational problems, political uncertainty and economic conditions in relevant areas of the world, the actions of competitors, activities by governmental authorities such as changes in taxation or regulation and such other risk factors identified in Rio Tinto's most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") or Form 6-Ks furnished to the SEC. Forward-looking statements should, therefore, be construed in light of such risk factors and undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation.
Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match or exceed its historical published earnings per share.
2F
or p
erso
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3
China cyclical momentum and reform process
OECD financial fragility
Loose monetary conditions - Quantitative Easing and potential unwinding
Macroeconomic influence on commodity prices will continue through 2013
Cost escalation and supply cycles For
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Mixed performance in OECDModest US recovery while Eurozone and Japan still weak
European bond yield fall highlighting the reduced risk of Eurozone breakup
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
Jan-
12
Feb-
12
Mar
-12
Apr
-12
May
-12
Jun-
12
Jul-1
2
Aug
-12
Sep
-12
Oct
-12
Nov
-12
Dec
-12
Jan-
13
Feb-
13
Ten year bond yields
Spain Italy
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
US Eurozone Japan
Above 50 = Expansion
Below 50 = Contraction
4F
or p
erso
nal u
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nly
Expectations for a strong first half in China and moderation in the second half
Inflation is benign but residential housing costs are a leading indicator of a pick-up in CPI
A sharp increase in bank credit and banker’s acceptances is supporting current pick up
Land sales have increased sharply with the pick up in residential sales and prices
Leading indicators have picked up pace; decline in flash February PMI likely due to CNY effects
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
J-10 J-10 J-11 J-11 J-12 J-12 J-13
RM
B B
illio
n
Total Social Financing, 3mma
New Banker's Acceptance Bills New Trust and Entrusted LoansNew Bank Loans
90
95
100
105
110
40
45
50
55
60
J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13
Leading Index & HSBC PMI
HSBC Economic Climate Leading Index-RHS
100101102103104105106107108
J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13
Inflation
CPI CPI Residence
‐50%
‐30%
‐10%
10%
30%
50%
J‐10 D‐10 J‐11 D‐11 J‐12 D‐12
Residential Land Sales Growth in133 Cities3mma YoY
5F
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Aluminium capacity additions and stocks continue to weigh on marketStrong growth in China alumina imports has been due to concerns over availability of imported bauxite
Outside of China financing deals will continue to tie up metal away from the physical market
Source: Goldman Sachs Source: GTIS
Greater semi’s exports from China risk market over supply (‘000tpy, Aluminium equivalent)
6
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Jul-2010 Jan-2011 Jul-2011 Jan-2012 Jul-2012
Alumina Bauxite (Kt AL2O3)
China bauxite and alumina imports(expressed as Kt AL2O3 equivalent)
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Copper short term small surplus, but longer term supply response required in an increasingly challenged industry
Expectations of near term supply growth, but still a need for significant new supply in long term
LME stocks have been rising, particularly in Europe as warehouse owners attract material to earn rent
Source: WoodMacKenzie
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000Ja
n 12
Feb
12M
ar 1
2
Apr 1
2M
ay 1
2Ju
n 12
Jul 1
2
Aug
12
Sep
12
Oct
12
Nov
12
Dec
12
Jan
13
Feb
13
Global Europe (rhs)
LME Copper inventories by location, t
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022
Possible Projects
Probable Projects
Highly Probable Projects
Base Case ProductionCapability
Primary Demand
Global copper production and primary demand Mt
7F
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Pigment consumption per capita 1995-2011Pigment production accounts for 90% of TiO2 use
Long run demand fundamentals are strong for TiO2
Approximate population in 2020 shown
8F
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Structural supply constraints remain a long term challenge for coalsAlternative to blast furnace technology unlikely at long run HCC prices below $200/t based on consensus prices
Chinese and Indian imports - price opportunism and structural supply deficits
Source: Salva, GTIS, Global Coal
Error bars are +/- 2 Stdevs
Source: Rio Tinto analysis. Assuming long run consensus prices.
9
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Thermal Coal US$/t
Mt
ChinaIndiaNewc
0
50
100
150
200
250
DRI (Gas) + EAF with carbon DRI (Gas) + EAF withoutcarbon
HCC $/t FOB
Australia
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Iron ore supply continues to be exposed to downside shocksIndian exports continue to be constrained.We expect a return to market, at much lower levels
Iron ore forward curve in backwardation
Source: Platts, SGX Source: Louis Dreyfus, Port Authorities, RT Analysis
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11 Jan‐12 Jan‐13
West coast
East coast
Indian exports share ofseaborne trade
Annualised (Mt)
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Mar‐10 Dec‐10 Sep‐11 Jun‐12 Mar‐13 Dec‐13 Sep‐14
Forward Curve (1 Mar 2013)
Platts IODEX 62%Fe
US$/dmt. FOB WA, real 2013
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Steep iron ore cost curve provides scope for price fly-ups2012 Industry cost curve($/wmt CFR)
Source: Rio Tinto
Note: Includes shipping and sustaining capital expenditure and is adjusted for inflation and FX
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
FMG Pilbara Vale
BHP Pilbara RTIO assets
Mtpa
$/wmt CFR
Cumulative capacity
RT Pilbara
IOC
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Forecast
12
Global peaks: finished steel per capita intensitiesASEAN, Brazil, India and Africa unlikely to peak <2040
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Kg per person
China
Greece
Qatar
United Arab Emirates
South Korea
Austria
Ireland
FinlandSpain
Italy
Portugal
Canada
Denmark
Singapore
Hong KongTaiwan
Switzerland
Norway
Japan
Germany
SwedenBelgium-Luxembourg
Australia
FranceNetherlands
USA
UK
• Small open export orientated economies
• Europe
• RoW
• China
• ASEAN
• IndiaSize = population at peak
India and ASEAN economies expected to increase in steel intensity progressively but not peak before 2040.F
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Detailed China bottom-up demand analysis – example for machinery sector
50-69 HP
25-49 HP
>100 HP
ClassAgriculture
Tractors
70-120 HP>120 HP
Source: Expert surveys, Rio Tinto analysis
Compact tractors
Utility tractors
High-power tractors
Harvester
Combined harvester
ClassConstruction
<15t
15-30t
>30t
<5t
6t
>6t1
5t
Excavator
Wheeled loader
20-30t31-50t51-100t
20-3031-50t
20-30t31-50t51-100t>100t
Mining vehicle
Coal shuttle cars
Shearer
Mining Class
13
Steel 2012 (Mt)
CAGR 2012-2030
8.8Mt
6.5%
14.3Mt
-0.4%
21.2Mt
3.3%
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Appendix
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RuralNational
Stylised overview of Chinese commodity demand modelling framework
SectorsIntensity by building type kg/m2
IndustrialCommercial
ResidentialNew floor space m2
DemolitionReplacement factor by product % and life cycle
SectorsFloor space stock Sqm
ExportsPower Generation
SectorsIntensity by M&E class kg/productive capacity
AgricultureMining
ConstructionNew demand required to satisfy production
Mac
hine
ry a
nd
Equ
ipm
ent
Scrap and replacement Replacement factor by product %
SectorsStock of M&E by sector GDP
Bui
ldin
g an
d C
onst
ruct
ion
Volume factors Intensity factors
National level macro forecasts
City level forecasts • Population
• GDP • Consumer and Industry
trends
Top down and bottom up approach leads to consistent stories across commodities demand
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Source: Expert surveys, Rio Tinto analysis
Axle▪ Axle housing Cockpit▪ Control unitEngine▪ Oil block▪ Oil filter housing▪ AC tubes▪ AC condenser▪ Motor components Hydraulics▪ Pump housing▪ Interface sealRadiatorTransmission▪ Gear box wear ring▪ Wet clutch friction plate▪ Synchronizer blocker
rings▪ Other parts Throughout▪ Cables▪ Gaskets▪ Nameplates ▪ Other electrical parts
Cu Al
Commodity
“While HP-driven components are concentrated in the engine and transmission, weight-driven components are found throughout the tractor”
- U.S. Advanced Automotive expert
Fe
Example of breakdown used to determine commodity intensity16
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