Football Strategies for Betfair

The football strategies shown here can be used to trade different markets on Betfair or a similarbetting exchange. Football odds are very predictable in relation to goals and time. All thesefootball strategies rely on goals being scored, and time passing in the game. The footballstrategies shown here have been developed using Betfair football markets. You could useBetfair to just bet or lay in the football markets. These trading methods employ different stakingtechniques and insurance bets to give you trading options, depending on your reading of what ishappening in the game. All betting strategies carry risk. These trading strategies have beendeveloped to reduce risk. All of these trading strategies have been gathered from other sites! Football betting/trading on Betfair

The beauty of football betting on Betfair, apart from the obvious advantage of being able to laybets, is that there are so many more markets to bet on than traditional bookmakers. This isparticularly true of live TV matches, where you can find any bet you could possibly want such asasian handicap, corners odds, half-time/full-time, next goalscorer, over/under 2.5 goals, and soon. Also, if you enjoy in-play betting you have more flexibility with Betfair because you can betright up until the final whistle, unlike the mainstream bookies who usually suspend betting withabout ten minutes to go. However, when I do have the occasional bet on football, I don't do it forthe enjoyment, I do it solely to make money. In my four years as a full-time Betfair trader, Iidentified three main ways to profit from football betting and trading:

1. Trading the odds before a match starts

When I first started out on Betfair, my only goal was to build my bank up gradually, with theminimum of risk. By studying the odds available on Betfair and comparing them with thebookmakers' odds, I quickly spotted some excellent profit opportunities. A very useful site forodds comparisons is Oddschecker. This site compares odds from many bookmakers, as well asBetfair, and displays them on a single screen. It also tells you where the odds are shortening orlengthening, and with which bookmaker. The key to profiting from this tool is to find matcheswhere the odds on Betfair differ significantly from the average of all the bookmakers' prices. Forexample if you think that Betfair's odds are slightly too high, you can back that selection and aimto lay it back at a lower price and guarantee yourself a risk-free profit when Betfair's price, asexpected, moves in towards the average bookmakers' price.

Let's demonstrate by giving a real-life example to demonstrate this point. At the time of writing, Ibelieve I've found a good trading opportunity. The match is the upcoming FA Cup match in twodays time (at the time of writing) between Chelsea and Colchester. Looking at the bookies'prices, the odds on Chelsea currently range from 1.07 to 1.1. Betfair's price on Chelsea iscurrently available to back at 1.14. Now this to me seems very generous. You'd expect slightlybetter odds, but at the current price of 1.14, it's approximately double the odds of the currentlowest bookies' price of 1.07. Another useful tool is to look at the historical betting chart (click onthe selection - ie Chelsea in this case), to see what odds have previously been taken. Itcurrently shows that the majority of the money has been staked at 1.13 and 1.14, with somebets being placed down to 1.09. This suggests that the current price is likely to be the highestprice that Chelsea will be available at for the near future. I could try and get 1.15 but there'scurrently about £15,000 queued up. I would have to wait ages for it to be taken, and wouldprobably be lucky to get it matched at this price at all as there is currently just £1500 available toback at 1.14.

I decide to go ahead and back at 1.14 for £1000, with the target of laying it back at around 1.12

or possibly 1.11 if I'm lucky. Remember there's still a few days left before the match, so I'vedecided to leave a lay of £1030 at 1.11 in the system. If it doesn't reach this point, then I'll up itto 1.12, or higher if I really have to. The £1000 bet sounds like a large sum but remember that itis a trade, so whatever happens, I will definitely lay this back before the match starts in a fewdays. The worst case scenario is that Chelsea's price to lay drifts out to say 1.17 and I have tolay back the £1000 at this price, which simply won't happen in my view based on thebookmakers' odds, but would still only result in a loss of £30 if Chelsea won and £0 if any theydrew or lost.

The following morning, still a day before the match, I load up my Betfair page and see thatthankfully Chelsea's price has come in and is now 1.11 to back and 1.12 to lay. Unfortunatelynot much as been matched at 1.11 looking at the historical data, and my £1030 is in a queue ofaround £80,000 waiting to lay with just £3000 waiting to back at 1.12. This to me indicates thatwe're unlikely to go any lower than 1.11. In this case I decided not to be greedy and risk waitingpatiently for my 1.11 to be taken, which may never happen, and increased my offer to 1.12which was instantly matched. Before I did so I dropped my stake to £1018, for a nice even profitof around £18 whatever the outcome:

If Chelsea win, profit = (£1000 * 1.14) - (£1018 * 1.12) = £17.84If Draw / Colchester win = (-£1000) + (£1018) = £18.00

I usually trade in sizes of at least £3000 or £4000 and make pretty consistent profits, but evenso you won't make a fortune from doing trades like this. However it is a nice, low-risk,supplementary income, and you will come across a few decent opportunities every week. Forexample, the following day I noticed that Real Madrid (v Arsenal) were available to back at 1.86(had been as high as 1.9), when a lot of bookies were as low as 1.62 and generally as high asjust 1.67. You would expect a slightly higher price on Betfair of around 1.75-1.80, but at 1.85 thiswas an excellent trading opportunity. In this case, I managed to get my entire stake matched at1.85 and layed it all back later in the day at 1.79 for a very nice profit.

The best time to find potential trades is a few days before the match starts when the market isstill fairly illiquid, and wait for the prices to correct themselves as the match draws close. Youshould always look to close out before the day of the match, as this is when the big moneyenters the market, which often results in price changes of both bookies and Betfair, and messesup the system. This method of trading is based on the assumption that the bookmakers priceswill remain relatively stable in the days leading up to the match, which they do in the majority ofmatches.

You could in theory apply these methods to other sports as well (I used a similar method totrade horse racing), but I like the football because there's always a lot of money staked on them,therefore it's always easy to close out a position.

2. Find a specialist market and research it thoroughly

A market which I've consistently made money from in the past is the bookings odds markets onlive premiership matches. The market is based on 2 points for a yellow card and 5 points for ared card. It offers three possible outcomes:

5 points and under6-8 points9 points and above

The selection I always looked to lay was the 5 points and under. In other words, I'm alwayslooking for matches where there will be at least three bookings in order to win the bet. As thismarket is generally only available for live matches you have to be very selective, and for thatreason I usually only found one or two solid opportunities per week. However, I'm constantly

amazed at how low the prices are for this selection, as I think the price available is often a lotmore generous than it's true probability. The average price you can lay this selection at varies,but my selections are usually around 3.5-4.5. On that basis if you use the same stake every bet(I generally staked £150 for each match), then on average you need to have a 75% successrate to make this system profitable. This may sound high, but if you do your homework then it'sremarkably easy to achieve this, and again make a nice little income. My record was seventeensuccessive winning lays stretching over about three months.

Look at any premiership match nowadays, and you'll see that very few matches have less thanthree bookings. This is because referees are now extremely fussy and just the smallest ofmistimed tackles often results in a booking. Also, there is a lot of diving and simulation in ourgame at the moment, which is now finally being clamped down on with an instant booking inmost cases. The prices offered on Betfair, in my opinion, don't reflect this and are still verygenerous.

Those matches that do finish with less than three bookings are often very easy to predict eitherbecause they have a soft referee in charge, or they're between two mid-table sides with nothingmuch to play for, or two well-disciplined sides with excellent disciplinary records, such asChelsea or Liverpool (two teams I like to avoid).

Two essential tools for identifying suitable matches are the fair play league table and the refereeleague table. These are good starting points for identifying ill-disciplined teams and card-happyrefs, but I like to analyse the two team selections as well. Most of my bets are therefore placedclose to the kick-off when the two line-ups are announced. Ideally I want to find matchesinvolving tough combative central midfielders who like to get stuck in, tricky wingers who candraw fouls, and no-nonsense central defenders. Two of my favourite teams who meet thiscriteria are Blackburn and Everton. Both have no-nonsense managers in Mark Hughes andDavid Moyes at the time of writing, and boast several hard-working, determined, tough-tacklingplayers in their team.

There are a few other teams, such as Arsenal and Bolton, who rarely let me down either, but it'simportant to take each match on it's merit. For example, Blackburn v Everton may look like abanker bet, but if, let's say, it's near the end of the season and both teams are comfortably inmid-table with nothing to play for, then neither side will be as committed. Therefore the odds ofgetting at least three bookings are seriously reduced. In my experience relegation scraps oftenproduce a lot of bookings, because both teams are so desperate for a positive result and fullycommit to tackles, often mistiming them.

In my experience the matches to avoid are those matches hyped up by the media that have ahistory of bad blood and aggression from previous encounters. This attracts a lot of casualpunters who don't normally bet on this market, who subsequently over-inflate the price tosomething silly like 7 or 8 or even higher.

To conclude, the ideal match to lay under 5 points would obviously be one refereed by one ofthe strictest refs and between two teams with a poor disciplinary record. It is important,however, to also look at the two line-ups and make sure that all the notoriously tough playersare playing, and both teams should have something to play for, so they're fully committed.

3. Lower league matches

If you support a lower league team, or simply follow lower league football, you can potentiallyearn nice profits from Betfair by simply using your superior knowledge to generate profits. Mostodds compilers spend most of their time analysing and pricing up premiership matches,meaning less time is spent on lower league matches. Because Betfair's prices are closely linkedto bookmakers' prices, it's therefore possible to get very good value, as well as being given the

option to lay your side if they're not very good, like my team at the moment, Bristol City.

I have to admit I've never used this tactic myself as I can't bring myself to bet against my ownteam. However I know a good friend of mine, who also supports Bristol City, has made a lot ofmoney this season laying us to lose, particularly in the first half of the season. This is becauseright at the start of the season we were second favourites to get promoted, but it was patentlyobvious to any City fan attending the opening matches that we had a poor manager and a poorteam, and we were going to struggle this season. However, because we are a big-name club forthe division we are in, and we started this season as strong promotion candidates, mostbookies, and subsequently Betfair prices, still reflected this in their odds. Therefore shrewd Cityfans, like my mate, not only profited from laying us for a lot of matches, but also got verygenerous prices as well.

Hedge 1 - 1

This Hedging strategy relies on a decrease in the odds of the 1-1 score line in the Correct Scoremarket, after a goal is scored or two goals are scored to get the score to 1-1.Whether you are a seasoned trader or a beginner, this strategy offers quite a safe way oftrading. Providing you stake correctly, you could make good percentage profits on your initialstake if you are able to hedge using this strategy. The big advantage of this strategy is that it isa bet first hedge, rather than a lay first hedge.

Whenever you use a lay first hedge (odds increasing), your profit will always be less than youroriginal lay stake, but with a bet first hedge, (odds decreasing), your profit can be much biggerthan your original bet stake. This means that the potential profits from this hedge of the CorrectScore Market can be very good. If events go against you, a dutching strategy is provided toenable you to continue trading in the match. The big odds available for this exit strategy canmake this Hedging of the 1-1 score line strategy quite a safe way of trading football matches.

Basic Strategy

Before the kick-off, place a 1-1 bet in the Correct Score market.Place an Insurance bet.Whilst there are no goals, do nothing - you will break even.After a goal is scored, lay your original 1-1 bet score line to profit if the lay odds are lower than your original bet odds.

Examples of risks

A goal may be scored but the 1-1 odds may not shorten sufficiently to enable a successfulHedge. For example, the first goal may be scored very early in the game, or if the game islooking very one-sided, the market may judge that the losing side will not equalize to getthe score to 1-1. 2 quick goals scored by the same side can take the score to 2-0 or 0-2 before we havehad time to place our 1-1 lay or exit strategy bets whilst the score is 1-0 or 0-1.

This type of problem of course applies to other strategies. If you were trading the Draw in the Match Odds market, a quick goal by both sides taking the score to 1-1, would cause tradingproblems.

1 Loser Strategy

In a horse race, bookies may lay only a few runners, and have very small liabilities or noliabilities at all on the outsiders. If an outsider wins the race, they clean up with very little payout,or no payout at all. Another strategy is to lay several runners but make only one targeted runner

a loser. When you use this strategy, you are not laying the whole field, but just a few selections.This is not the same as laying a single selection in the hope that it loses. Using this strategy youcan lay several scores in the Correct Score market, or several players in the First Goal Scorermarket, and win on every lay except your first lay. If you were laying the Correct Score Market:

The only way these lays can lose is if you happen to pick the winning score line with yourfirst lay.Lay as many score lines as you like. The more you lay, the bigger your profit.Additionally, as with all other laying strategies that involve more than one lay, everylay you make reduces your liabilities.In this case your only liability will be on your first lay.As you make more lays, that liability is reduced, and the profit on every other layincreases.If the match ends with a score that you have not layed, you will have no payoutwhatsoever. You clean up, winning the total £ of all your lays.Remember, your only losing lay will be on the first score line that you lay. You will win onall the others.

It is exactly the same if you lay players in the First Goal Scorer Market:

You can target any player on the list not to score first.Lay that player, and lay some others players that you think will not score first.These other lays will reduce your liabilities on your targeted player. Your only losing lay will be on the first player that you lay. You will win on all the others.

You could also use this spreadsheet to lay a number of horses in a horse race, golfers in a golftournament, darts players in a darts competition etc.

Basic Strategy

In the Correct score market, (or any other market of your choice - horses, golf, tennistournament etc.):

Before the kick - off, decide which score line you will target to lose. You will be reducingyour liabilities on that selection by laying other scores.Lay that score line, and a few others.

Example

There are normally 17 score lines including "Any Other Score" that we can lay. We could lay 4score lines (for example), but only one will make a loss for us.

We lay our first score line, which could be any one of the 17. Then we lay a 2nd score line, a3rd, and a 4th. We could carry on laying more score lines if we wish. These 2nd, 3rd, and 4thlays reduce our liabilities on our first lay, just as any normal series of lays would do, but if westake correctly:

If the winner does not come from the 4 scores that we have layed, we have 4 successfullays, and we clean up, with no payout.If the winner comes from score lines 2, 3, or 4, we make a profit.If our first score line wins, we make a loss, but our liabilities have been reduced by thesuccessful lays on score lines 2, 3 and 4.

2 Losers Strategy

This strategy can be used to lay 2 (or more) score lines to lose (or first goal scorers, horses

etc.). Once again, we do not lay the whole field, but a few score lines. The procedure is exactlythe same, but this time, 2 score lines are targeted to lose. Liabilities on score lines 1 and 2 willbe reduced by the additional lays on score lines 3 upwards. This strategy of targeting 2 scorelines, has 2 advantages, but one obvious drawback:

A large slice of liability is reduced on score line 1 by the stake on score line 2.A large slice of liability is reduced on score line 2 by the stake on score line 1. Thisstrategy is particularly effective if score lines 1 and 2 are at short odds.The downside is that we have 2 score lines running against us instead of 1.

Dutch All 3 Outcomes

Bet home team, away team, and draw for an equal profit. You could dutch all 3 outcomes of afootball match by betting on the draw, and then after the kick off, and some time has passed,whilst there is no score, bet both teams as the odds of the 2 teams increase. Alternatively, if oneteam is winning, you could bet the winning team, and then after some time has passed and theodds of the losing team and the draw have increased, bet the losing team and the draw for asmall profit. Both of those methods would take advantage of small increases in the odds, andprofits would be very small if you only waited for short periods of time between bets.

The strategy described below, takes advantage of much bigger changes in Betfair odds due to agoal or several goals being scored. Bigger changes in the odds offer bigger profits on asuccessful dutch.

Basic Strategy

In the Match Odds market, before the kick - off, bet both teams to win an equal amount.After a goal is scored, bet the draw to a guaranteed equal profit on all outcomes.

Insurance bets can be placed in the Correct Score market to cover the 0-0 score line oradditional draw score lines whist we wait for the odds to lengthen as time passes or more goalsare scored.

Examples of risks

A goal may be scored but the Draw odds may not lengthen sufficiently to enable us toDutch successfully. For example, the least fancied of the 2 teams may score first.An equalizing goal may be scored before you have time to complete your bet on theDraw.

Hedge The Draw

This hedging strategy relies on an increase in the odds of the draw in the Match Odds market,after a goal or several goals are scored. This basic strategy is very well known, and has beenmarketed quite aggressively via the Internet for some years.

Basic Strategy

In the Match Odds market, before the kick - off, lay the draw result.After a goal is scored, bet the draw to a guaranteed equal profit, whether the match resultis a draw or not a draw.

Insurance bets can be placed in the Correct Score market to cover the 0-0 score line oradditional draw score lines whist we wait for the odds to lengthen as time passes or more goalsare scored.

Examples of risks

A goal may be scored but the draw odds may not lengthen sufficiently for a successfulhedge. For example, the least fancied of the 2 teams may score first.An equalizing goal may be scored before you have time to complete your hedge.

Lay the Losing Team

This strategy relies on the losing team having to pull back at least a 2 goal deficit to win thegame. At one goal down, to win the game, the losing team needs to score twice without reply. Ifwe lay the losing team, and then bet the next winning score(s) line up for that team, the losingteam will need to score 3 goals without reply, before we have a losing trade. A draw result, or ifthe losing team doesn't go on to win the game, and we have a successful lay. If the losing teamscore goals, we have a winning bet.

Example

At 1-0, we immediately lay the losing team at £20 at odds of 10.0 before the odds lengthenfurther. The losing team will need to score twice to get the score to 1-2 before we have anunsuccessful lay. We bet the 1-2 score line £13.33 at odds of 15.0. The losing team will need toscore 3 goals to get the score to 1-3 or 2-3 before we have an unsuccessful lay.

Losing team loses. We have a successful £20 lay, less £13.33 losing bet = +£6.67 profit.Losing team wins 1-2. Win £13.33 x 14 = 186.62 less £20 x 9 = 180 lay for a +£ 6.62profit.

You may decide that the losing team has little chance of winning, so you would like to bias yourstaking in favour of the winning team. This spreadsheet has an Adjust feature built in that allowsyou to bias your staking to favour a win or lose result for your losing team.

Lay the Winning Team

This strategy involves both dutching and hedging. Insurance against a draw result or a win bythe "losing team", is provided by a lay of the winning team. The aim of this strategy, is to have awinning bet on the final score in the Correct Score market. To do that at any time in the game,we could Bet the current score, plus other scores as goals are scored. If we continually bet thecurrent winning score as goals were scored, we would of course soon bet an over-round bookand quite often make a loss on our trades. We can cut down on the number of bets required, ifwe only have to bet on one team. To keep the number of bets on different scores to a minimum,we can wait until late in the game before entering the market. To insure against a draw result orthe losing team scoring goals and going on to win the game, all we need is a very smallinsurance lay on the winning team.

Insurance Lay

If we lay the winning team, that lay would be successful if the result was a draw or a win for theteam that was losing when we placed our lay. By laying the winning team at very short odds, wecan avoid having to bet draw score lines such as 1-1, 2-2, and all possible scores for the teamthat was losing when we placed our lay. The cost of that lay can be very small. For example alay of £20 at odds of 1.04, carries a liability of only minus £0.80.

If we enter the market at a score of 1-0, and lay the winning team, we would have a successfullay if the losing team equalized or won the game. To hit the winning score for the winning team,we only need to bet the current score of 1-0, plus 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2, and Any Unquoted, butto bet all those possible scores probably wouldn't be profitable.

So, the idea is, to enter the market late in the game, especially at a 2 goal difference in thescore, such as 2-0 or 0-2, and net the current score and other scores as goals are scored, tomake sure we net the winning score result. If the match ends in a draw or a win for the losingteam, we have a successful lay on the winning team.

Strategy

Late in the game, in the Match Odds market, lay the winning team.In the Correct Score market, bet the current score line, plus the next 2 possible scores..As the game progresses, bet further score lines as necessary in the Correct Scoremarket..Make sure you bet the final score result.

Example

Russia - Sweden. Euro 2008. June 17th 2008. Russia won the game 2-0.Russia were leading 2-0 at 50 minutes.

Lay odds at 60 minutes for Russia were 1.09 in the Match Odds market.Lay Russia £30 at 1.09 for a liability of -£2.70.

In the Correct Score market, Bet the current score, 2-0, plus the next 2 possible scores 3-0 and2-1, for a win or lose profit of £7.71.

Lay Odds = 1.09Lay Stake = 30.00Winning Team= RussiaWin = 2.70Lose = 30.00

Stake To Return 32.70 OverallBetfair BET Correct Scores Win LoseScores ODDS Adjust Stakes Win Lose1-02-0 3.50 9.34 10.41 -22.29 7.71 7.713-0 5.00 6.54 10.41 -22.29 7.71 7.712-1 5.10 6.41 10.41 -22.29 7.71 7.713-13-2Any Unqoted

Total stakes 22.29

Above is a snapshot of the "Trade Winning Team" spreadsheet. Enter the lay odds of thewinning team, plus the lay stake. Enter the odds of the current score and the next 2 possiblescores for the winning team from the Correct Score market. In this case, with the score of 2-0,the current score is 2-0, and the next 2 possible scores for the winning team are 3-0 and 2-1.

Enter the odds, and the spreadsheet shows the stakes required in the Correct Score market, forthe current score and the next 2 possible scores. The potential overall win / lose Gross profit isshown for the whole trade across both Match Odds and Correct Score markets, in this case£7.71.

Timing of your entry into the market is important. If you enter the market late in the game, there

is less time for goals to be scored, but be aware that the odds of the current score and possiblythe next score up for the winning team will probably be shortening in the Correct Score market.

A problem with this strategy is that if you wait too long before entering the Match Odds andCorrect Score markets after a goal is scored, for example at a score of 2-0 or 0-2, the Matchodds may stabilize, whilst the Correct Score odds continue to shorten. The effect of that is yourpotential profit may be reduced, especially if more goals are scored. So, before entering themarket, use the spreadsheet to check for the potential profit.

An advantage of this strategy.

If you have layed the winning team and a goal is scored by the losing team before you haveplaced bets in the Correct Score market, the odds of the winning team should lengthen to somedegree. This offers an excellent opportunity to hedge out of the Match Odds market with a beton the winning team at higher odds than your lay. A hedge spreadsheet is provided to show thestakes required for a successful hedge in this situation.