Food situationin rural Malawi 2001-02

• Assessing the food situation:– Food self-sufficiency – months that households

have food to eat from their own production– Buying food – when households resorted to the

market to access food– Food security – when households had enough

food from own production OR buying

Food self-sufficiency for the family

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Number of month

% h

ouse

hold

s

2000 harvest

Food self-sufficiency for the family

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Number of month

% h

ouse

hold

s

2000 harvest 2001 harvest

Food self-sufficiency

Households buying food 2001-02

Food insecurity

• Moderate indicators

1. Eating nsima from green maize (chitibu)

2. Eating madeya/gaga

3. Eating only fruit

4. Eating only vegetables

5. Eating only sugar cane

• Extreme indicators

1. Eating nsima from maize cobs

2. Eating only wild roots and tubers

3. Eating only wild fruit, mushrooms, etc

4. Eating nothing for the whole day

Malawi 2001-02Malawi 2001- 2002

Food insecurity by monthbased on coping strategies

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

p

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

-02

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

% o

f h

ou

se

ho

lds

% food insecure % extremely food insecure

Southern region 2001-02South region 2001- 2002

Food insecurity by monthbased on coping strategies

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

p

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

-02

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

% o

f h

ou

se

ho

lds

% food insecure % extremely food insecure

Central region 2001-02Centre region 2001- 2002Food insecurity by month

based on coping strategies

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

p

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

-02

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

% o

f h

ou

se

ho

lds

% food insecure % extremely food insecure

Northern region 2001-02North region 2001- 2002

Food insecurity by monthbased on coping strategies

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

p

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

-02

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

% o

f h

ou

se

ho

lds

% food insecure % extremely food insecure

Food security and crops grown2001-02

• Grouping districts by staple foods grown:

Crop diversification enhances food security, growing maize only increases risk of

food crisis

Next season (2002-03)

• Will the food situation be better or worse than last season?

• When will the crisis begin?• How can we respond?

– The short term– The long term

Source: 2001-02 TIP Evaluation and MoAI/FEWS

Source: MoAI/FEWS

The maize deficit • 2001-02 maize deficit around 600,000 tonnes

• 2002-03 maize deficit will be around 780,000 tonnes

• The estate sector is too small to offset the deficit – and did not respond to price incentive in 2001-02

• Underproduction of maize will again put severe upward pressure on food prices

• High food prices will FI/EFI, undermining education, health and development programmes• The ‘hungry period’ will begin earlier than last year

• Food imports (food aid) may help – but not enough

Addressing underproduction- the medium term response (starting

now!)• A strategy is needed to strengthen weak

purchasing power of smallholder farmers• Meanwhile, free inputs can help production• Universal SP is value for money compared with

food imports (cost of SP about 1/4 cost of importing)

• Targeting 1/2 or 1/3 of farmers does not work and undermines community structures

• Near-universal is feasible (communities could agree to it) – South 89%, Centre 87%, North 60% but near-universal will not maximise production