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Food Security to 2040
What’s coming down the track?
John IngramFood Systems Programme Leader
Environmental Change InstituteUniversity of Oxford
Food security…
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.
(UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996, 2012)
… is universally applicable… is more than food production… is underpinned by food systems
Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD ACCESS
•Affordability•Allocation•Preference
•Nutritional Value•Social Value•Food Safety
FOOD AVAILABILITY
•Production•Distribution•Exchange
… ‘Outcomes’ of which underpin food security
“… exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.”
Example contributions
of FSAs to PBs
Producing food
Processing & Packaging
food
Distributing & Retailing
food
Consuming food
Climate change
N cycle
P cycle
Fresh water use
Biodiversity loss
Atmos.aerosols
Chemical pollution
Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries
Example contributions
of FSAs to PBs
Producing food
Processing & Packaging
food
Distributing & Retailing
food
Consuming food
Climate change
GHGs, albedo
Factory emissions
Emissions from transport and cold chain
GHGs from cooking
N cycle Eutrophicn, GHGs
Factory effluent NOx from transport
Waste
P cycle P reserves Detergents Waste
Fresh water use
Irrigation Washing, heating, cooling
Cleaning food Cooking, cleaning
Biodiversity loss
Deforestation, soils, fishing
Paper/cardMetal mining
Invasive spp Consumer choices
Atmos.aerosols
Dust Shipping Smoke from cooking
Chemical pollution
Pesticides Factory effluent Transport emissions
Cooking, cleaning
Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries
?
Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD ACCESS
FOOD AVAILABILITY• Production
How do changes in Climate and other Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security?
?
Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD ACCESS
• Affordability• Allocation• Preference
• Nutritional Value• Social Value• Food Safety
FOOD AVAILABILITY• Production• Distribution• Exchange
How do changes in Climate and other Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security?
Weather-induced price spikes affect affordability
Poor people tend to spend relatively more of their income on food, therefore suffer more when food prices go up
Cost of wheat is 5% of cost of loaf of bread in UK, but 90% cost of chapati in India
• Mycotoxins formed on plant products in the field or during storage
• Residues of pesticides in plant products affected by changes in managing increased pest pressure
• Marine biotoxins in seafood following production of phycotoxins by harmful algal blooms
• Pathogenic bacteria in foods during heat waves.
… and food safety.
Miraglia et al., Food and Chemical Toxicology, 2009
“Vitamin D deficiency:thought to affectat least half the UK’swhite population, up to 90% of themulti-ethnic populationand a quarter of children”
(Dec, 2012)
~ 2 billion people suffer from Vit A, Fe, I, Zn and other micronutrient deficiencies: “Hidden Hunger”
And food systems are also ‘failing’a further ~2.5 billion of us!
Ng, 2014; AINW, 2014; Public Health England, 2014; Xi et al, 2013
Global: 33% of all adults are overweight or obese.
Australia: 60% of all adults are overweight or obese.
England: 19% of Yr 6 children obese & 14% overweight.
Shanghai: Over 200,000 (14%) children are obese
Different, overlapping forms of malnutrition:the ‘new normal’
“Nearly every country in the world experiences some form of malnutrition, and no country can take good nutrition for granted.”
International Food Policy Research Institute, 2014.
Sufficient calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~ 2 billion
Sufficient calsSufficient nutrs
currently ~ 3 billion
Excess cals (incl. some with insufficient nutrs)
currently >2.5 billion
Insufficient calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~ 1 billion
Food security…
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.
‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activitiesprocessing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …
=> Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop
Productivity Diversity & Quality
Local, Regional & Global Production Activitiesfarming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, …=> Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm
Constraints on dietary choice and diversityaffordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, …
=> Consumption by Sub-populations
Sufficient calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~ 2 billion
Sufficient calsSufficient nutrs
currently ~ 3 billion
Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security
Excess cals (incl. some with insufficient nutrs)
currently >2.5 billion
CONSUMERS
PRODUCERS
Insufficient calsInsufficient nutrscurrently ~ 1 billion
FOOD CHAIN ACTORS
Soc
ial,
Pol
itica
l, B
usin
ess,
and
Bio
phys
ical
En
viro
nmen
ts
World population, 1950-2100, according to different projections and variants
World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision.
2013: 7.2 billion2025: 8.1 billion2050: 9.6 billion2100: 10.9 billion
Nearly 1 billion more in next 12 years!
Looking ahead ...
“unless trends are curbed, half the global adult population will be overweight in 15 years
time”
1
2250
- Too much - -- Too little --
Billions of people
----- Appropriate amount -----
(indicative; not to scale)
2 3 4 5 76 8 109
2040
2015
2025
kcal
/per
son/
day
cons
umpti
on
------ Too much ------ --- Too little ------- Appropriate amount --------------- Too much ------------ ----- Too little -------- Appropriate amount ---
Too much -- Too little ------ Appropriate ----
2000
The environmental consequences of meeting this demand with current food systems and consumption trends are dire
Impacts on non-communicable diseases (e.g. CVD, Type 2 Diabetes) will be massive
Calorie consumption
Annual UK NHS spend on diabetes alone increases from £10b to £17b over the next 25 years
Environmental Changewill clearly affect food security
But how will this interact withSocioeconomic Change?
DRIVERInteractions
SocioeconomicDRIVERSChanges in:
Demographics, Economics,Socio-political context,
Cultural contextScience & Technology
EnvironmentalDRIVERSChanges in:
Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means,
Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling,
Biodiversity, Sea level
‘Natural’DRIVERS
e.g. VolcanoesSolar cycles
Environmental feedbackse.g. water quality, GHGs, biodiversity
Socioeconomic feedbackse.g. nutrition, business, political stability
Food Utilisation
Food Access
Food Availability
Food Security
Need to consider drivers and feedbacks for food system ‘sustainability’ anlayses
Classic Concept Food System Concept
Social Nutritional
Environmental Environmental
Economic Enterprise
Sustainability Metrics for Food Systems
“Sustainable” “Environmental” (only)
‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activitiesprocessing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …
=> Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop
Productivity Diversity & Quality
Local, Regional & Global Production Activitiesfarming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, …=> Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm
PRODUCERS
FOOD CHAIN ACTORS
Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition SecurityHypothesis: % weighting put on sustainability metrics depends on ‘position’ in food
system and world view.
Constraints on dietary choice and diversityaffordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms,
…
=> Consumption by Sub-populations
CONSUMERS
Nutritional Environment Enterprise0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GoalProducers
Nutritional Environment Enterprise0
10
20
30
40
50
60
GoalValue Chain
Nutritional Environment Enterprise0
102030405060708090
GoalConsumers