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Food Security Issues in the A rab Near East A Report of the United Nations Economic Commission for Western Asia

Edited by

A. A. EL-SHERBINI Joint EC WA /FA O Agriculture Division, Beirut, Lebanon

Published for the

UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR WESTERN ASIA by

PERGAMON PRESS OXFORD · NEW YORK · TORONTO · SYDNEY · PARIS · FRANKFURT

Pergamon Press Ltd., Headington Hill Hall, Oxford OX3 OBW, England Pergamon Press Inc., Maxwell House, Fairview Park, Elmsford, New York 10523, U.S.A. Pergamon of Canada, Suite 104, 150 Consumers Road, Willowdale, Ontario M2J 1P9, Canada Pergamon Press (Aust.) Pty. Ltd., P.O. Box 544, Potts Point, N.S.W. 2011, Australia Pergamon Press SARL, 24 rue des Ecoles, 75240 Paris, Cedex 05, France Pergamon Press GmbH, 6242 Kronberg-Taunus, Pferdstrasse 1, Federal Republic of Germany

Copyright © 1979 United Nations All Rights Reserved- No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means: electronic, electrostatic, magnetic tape, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without permission in writing from the copyright holders.

First edition 1979

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

Economic Commission for Western Asia Food security issues in the Arab Near East. 1. Food supply - Arab countries I. Title II. El-Sherbini, A A 338.Γ9Ί74927 HD9018.A55 79-40284 ISBN 0-08-023447-X

in order to make this volume available as economically and as rapidly as possible the author's typescript has been reproduced in its original form. This method un-fortunately has its typographical limitations but it is hoped that they in no way distract the reader.

U.K.

U.S.A.

CANADA

AUSTRALIA

FRANCE

FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY

Printed in Great Britain by Page Bros. (Norwich) Ltd.

List of Annexes

ANNEXES TO PART I:

Annex I, 1975 Pood balance sheets for selected countries in the Arab countries

Table 1 - Iraq

Table 2 - Jordan

Table 3 - Lebanon

Table 4 - Syrian Arab Republic

Table 5 - Yemen Arab Republic

Table 6 - Yemen People's Democratic Republic

Annex I I · Demand project ions and production estimates for s e l ec t ed countries in the Arab Near East

Table 1 - Basic assumptions for domestic demand project ions

Table 2 - Projection of aggregate domestic demand

Table 3 - Nutri t ion analys is (average per capita per day)

Table 4 - Perspectives of agricultural production, 1980

Table 5 - Perspectives of l i ves tock production, 1980

Table 6 - 1 9 7 5 Pood pos i t ion

Table 7 - 1980 Pood pos i t ion

Iraq

Jordan

Lebanon

Syrian Arab Republic

Yemen Arab Republic

Yemen People's Democratic Republic

ANNEXES TO PART I I :

Annex I · Table 1 - I n s t a b i l i t y of wheat production in East Jordan

Table 2 - Mean, standard deviation and coef f i c ient of var iat ion of r a i n f a l l in E. Jordan

Table 3 - Probabil i ty d i s tr ibut ion of l e v e l s of r a i n f a l l in different zones of E.Jordan

Table 4 - Co-variation of wheat production, y i e l d , area and t o t a l ra in fa l l in E.Jordan, 1961-75

45

46

50

53

56

59

62

65

66

74

81

88

95

102

173

174

176

177

V I 1

Vlll List of Annexes

Table 5 - Rainfall by months and wheat yields

A) East Jordan 178 B) Irbid D i s t r i c t 178 C) Amman " 179 D) Karak " 179 E) Balqa ·· 180 P) Ma· an ·' 180

Graph 1 - I n s t a b i l i t y of production 181

Graph 2 - Co-variation of production, area, 182 y i e l d and r a i n f a l l

Graph 3 - Regression of y i e l d on ra in fa l l 183

Formulae for forecast ing the y i e l d of wheat

- in East Jordan 184 - in Amman Di s t r i c t 185 - in Irbid " 186 - in Karak " 187

Annex I I . Table 1 - Production of rain-fed ordinary wheat 188 for t o t a l Syria and major producing Mohafazat, 1958-75

Table 2 - Rain-fed wheat in Syria , 1958-75: area 189 y i e l d , production, r a i n f a l l , r e l a t i v e humidity, days of ra in , temperature

Table 3 - Rain-fed wheat in Syria: means and 190 standard deviations of the variables by Mohafazat 1958-75

Table 4 - Regression of the y i e l d of rain-fed 191 wheat in Syria on c l imatic var iables : optimum regressions by Mohafazat

Table 5 - Wheat in Syria - contribution of c l i - 192 matic variables t o the f luctuat ions of the y i e l d s of rain-fed ordinary wheat

Table 6 - Meteorological s ta t ions 193

Table 7 - Yield and production of i rr iga ted or - 194 dinary wheat for t o t a l Syria and major producing Mohafazat 1958-75

Table 8A - Acreage under wheat in Syria, 1973-76 195

8P - Wheat Production in Syria, 1973-76 195

8Y - Wheat Yields in Syria , 1973-76 195

Table 9 - Population and supply: u t i l i z a t i o n of 196 wheat i n Syria, 1958-75

Table 10 - Average wheat y i e l d s by Mohafazat 197

Table 11 - Rainfall and wheat y i e l d s in Syria and 197 East Jordan

Lis t of Annexes

Graph 1 - I n s t a b i l i t y of product ion 198

Graph 2 - Yie lds and r a i n f a l l 199 Graph 3 - Co-var ia t ion of y i e l d , p r e c i p i t a t i o n 200

days of r a i n f a l l and r e l a t i v e humidity Graph 4 - Co-var i a t ion of t h e y i e l d s of r a i n - f e d 201

wheat i n Sy r i a and in East Jordan Graph 5 - Co-var i a t ion of r a i n f a l l in Syr i a and 202

i n East Jordan

ANNEXES TO PART I I I :

Annex I« Matrix1 s p e c i f i c a t i o n s 227 Annex I I , C l a s s i f i c a t i o n of Arab a g r i c u l t u r a l imports 229

according t o t h e i r v u l n e r a b i l i t y t o fore ign p o l i t i c a l p re s su res Table 1 - Scores of v u l n e r a b i l i t y of va r ious 231

imports of t h e Arab world Table 2 - L i s t of high r i s k commodities with 232

important a l t e r n a t i v e sources of supply

Annex I I I . Table 1 - Total a g r i c u l t u r a l and o i l t r a d e fo r 233

t h e Arab c o u n t r i e s , 1971-73 Table 2 - Strructure of Arab a g r i c u l t u r a l expor ts 234

and imports by commodity group, ave r -age 1971-73

Table 3 - Rate of growth of a g r i c u l t u r a l expor t s 235 and imports of Arab coun t r i e s between 1970-72 and 1973-75

Table 4 - Per c a p i t a net import of food and l i v e 236 animals i n s e l e c t e d c o u n t r i e s , average 1972-74

Table 5 - Import dependence i n c e r e a l s for s e l - 237 ec ted c o u n t r i e s , average 1973-75

Table 6 - Unit value of imports and expor ts of 238 s e l e c t e d commodities i n t h e Arab c o u n t r i e s , 1971-73

Table 7 - Unit value of a g r i c u l t u r a l expor t s and 239 imports for a l l Arab coun t r i e s 1971-73

Table 8 - A summary view of Arab dependence on 239 developed market economies, average 1971-73

Table 9 - Arab a g r i c u l t u r a l expor ts t o and im- 240 p o r t s from ou t s ide t h e r eg ion , 1971-73 average

Table 10 - Est imated per c a p i t a a v a i l a b i l i t y of 241 a r a b l e land 1974

Table 11 - Changes i n terms of t r a d e of s e l e c t e d 241 Arab coun t r i e s

ix

Foreword

Pood security is now assuming primary importance in the Arab region. Agricultural production has not kept pace with surging food demand. The latter is stimulated by a popula-tion explosion and by rising incomes, particularly in the oil-rich countries where per capita food imports presently are highest in the world, standing at nearly U.S.$400 in 1978.

These developments have prompted the Economic Commission for Western Asia (ECWA) to give considerable attention to various aspects of Arab food security issues. This is evidenced by the pivotal position which this subject occu-pies in the work programme of the Joint ECWA/PAO Agriculture Division. It is also manifested in the catalytic role of ECWA in organizing regional meetings on food security such as the one held in Kuwait in April 1977.

The publication of this volume on food security provides an opportunity for the consolidation of all work undertaken by ECWA for easy reference by all those concerned with Arab problems in general, and food security issues in particular.

M.S. Al-Attar Executive Secretary July 1978

XI

Introduction

Dr. Abdel-Aziz El-Sherbini Chief, Joint EC WA /FA O Agriculture Division

Organization of the book

1. As in other parts of the world, there is also growing concern about the food situation in countries of Western Asia. The governments of the Economic Commis-sion for VJestern Asia (ECWA) countries during the First Session of the Commission in 1974 stressed their apprehension about the worsening food position in the region and the complex problems thereby generated. Indeed, in a number of ECWA countries it has become increasingly difficult for governments to assure steady supplies of basic foodstuffs and in at least two countries emergency food aid has been necessary to maintain minimum safe levels of food intake for the masses of the population.

2. The same concern over the magnitude and complexity of food problems at the global level culminated in holding the 1974 United Nations World Food Conference, convened by the General Assembly of the United Nations 1/,and entrusting it with developing ways and means whereby the international community, as a whole, could take specific action to resolve the world food problem within the broader context of development and international co-operation. The Conference generated con-siderable interest and produced an impressive declaration on the eradication of hunger and malnutrition, supported by an important three-pronged programme of action, focusing on increasing and rationalizing food aid, establishing and main-taining adequate food reserve stocks and improving agricultural production in food deficit countries -/ · The world at large has accepted the challenge of the food crisis. The developing countries, in particular, in a major bid to mobilize their own resources and to tackle their food problem, took the initiative to start the implementation of plans to strengthen their agricultural base and to boost their

1/ General Assembly Resolution No. 3180 (XXVIIl).

_2/United Nations, Report of the World Food Conference, Rome, 5-16 November 1974» New York 19751 Ρ·64 (UN Publication No. 75.11.A.3). The action programme is spelled out in 20 Resolutions.

xiii

xiv Introduction food production· V The Thirteenth FAO Regional Conference for the Near East adopted, in October 1976, the Tunis Declaration which cal ls upon Member Nations of the region to give the highest pr ior i ty to food and agricultural development, par-t i cu la r ly to increasing food production and to take a l l necessary measures to th i s end.

3. The present food c r i s i s is not simply a cyclical phenomenon, nor has i t come about suddenly. It has wrought i t s way gradually and imperceptibly,since the exis-tence of huge surpluses with the large food exporters, unt i l the early seventies, obscured the fact that the supply-demand relationship had been vrorsening consis-tent ly over the past two decades. Food production has been barely keeping pace with population growth. However, the problem does not directly l i e with the dynamics of agricultural production, but in the widely differing growth rates of food demand between developed and developing countries. The unfortunate con-sequence has been maldistribution with one part of the world having too much food and the other part having too l i t t l e and with no acceptable mechanism to balance or improve the pattern or to solve the chronic s tate of hunger and malnutrition throughout the world.

4. Thus, developments on both sides of the supply-demand equation explain the world's food predicament. On the supply side, there appears to be serious dif-ficulty in increasing a l l four of the basic agricultural resources (land, water, energy and f e r t i l i z e r ) . Moreover, the crop resul ts of recent years have accentua-ted the crucial and unpredictable role of the weather. On the demand side, popula-t ion growth and r i s ing affluence are rapidly stimulating food consumption and threatening the ecological balance that underpins the process of food production. Efforts to produce more food, however, seem pointless as the majority of the poor cannot afford to buy more food. The l a t t e r underlines the urgency for gainful employment of many more people and a more just income distr ibution.

The ingredients of the present food c r i s i s

5. Prior to the present c r i s i s , there have been periodic drops in production, such as the shortfall in the U.S.S.R. grain crop in 1963 and again in 1965 and the 1965-66 drought in India that led to serious crop fa i lure . These drops produced tense situations at the time but no c r i s i s emerged and world grain prices regained relat ively stable.

6. Thus, the 1960's witnessed the experience of managing production shortfal ls without visible effect on grain prices. Coupled with the optimism of the Green Revolution, t h i s created a climate of general euphoria about the world food s i tua-t ion which lasted unt i l the early 1970fs. It should also be noted that world grain stocks reached an all-time high in 1962. The large producing countries, particu-lar ly the U.S. attempted to eliminate high food surpluses by reducing stocks through acreage res t r ic t ion . Consequently, in 1971 stocks had fallen to the i r low-est level in more than a decade. Unfortunately, serious crop fai lures followed shortly afterwards. In 1972 grain production fel l by 39 million metric tons, of which 13 million M.T. were the result of the shortfall in the U.S.S.R. The same situation was repeated in 1974 when droughts led to a decline in cereal output by

Y Action by the industrialized world, part icularly with regard to the immediate problem of food aid and the medium-range problem of reserve stocks, has proved a slow s ta r t e r . A real breakthrough on these fronts will require much more vigorous measures at the national as well as the international level . Action by the United States in t h i s f ield i s crucial for the world's hungry people, since that country is at least as dominant in the global supply of food as the OPEC countries are in the supply of o i l .

Introduction xv

40 million M.T. Apart from a decrease of 38,8 million M.T· in North America, the world's largest grain exporting region, production dropped by 28 million M.T. in the U.S.S.R. In contrast to the policies of the 1960's, the U.S.S.R, decided on these two occasions to make up the deficits through imports rather than by curbing domestic consumption. With dangerously low stocks in existence - barely one month's consumption - wheat prices rose from U.S.$60 to U.S.$200 a ton between 1972 and 1974, Given the present levels of grain stocks and the annual necessary require-ments, significant grain shortfalls in large developing countries or in developed countries, that are important producers and traders, cannot be readily met without leading to a food crisis.

7. The developments in the first half of the 1970!s explain the increasing re-liance on trade to supply the grain needs of a large number of countries. Hov/ever, there has been a concurrent unwillingness on the part of large exporting countries to maintain high-cost contingency reserves in large quantities and on a permanent basis. Thus, the solution to the food crisis must not be sought so much in de-creasing consumption by the rich as in increasing production by the poor. This would call for a serious reconsideration of agricultural production policies in developing countries as attempted in this study.

The food situation in 1975-76

8. In 1975 "the hopes for a sharp recovery in world cereal output and food produc-tion as a whole did not materialize. The 1975 world cereal crop was only margin-ally better than the potentially disastrous production results of 1974* However, 1975fs problem was largely concentrated in the U.S.S.R. where cereal output de-clined by 30 per cent or 58 million M.T., representing a full 5 Per cerrt °f world cereal production. Indeed, there was a very large improvement in the developing and developed market economies and China fortunately made considerable surpluses available for export, (in the ECWA countries, the outcome of the 1975 crop was a mixed result and, at best, it could be called average.) In 1975? f°r ^ e fourth year in succession, stocks remained close to minimum working levels and well below the minimum level considered necessary for food security (17 to 18 per cent of annual consumption). At the end of the year 19751 "^ne world was once again left very heavily dependent on the outcome of the 1976 crop.

9. Fortunately, 1976 harvests were good and grain crops recovered from the 1974-75 low levels, permitting some rebuilding of depleted stocks (up to 13-14 per cent of annual consumption). The news that American farmers might decide on important reductions of the area under cereals in view of the mounting carry-over stocks in that country, however, dimmed the high expectations for the next year's crop,

10. In fact there remained a good deal of uncertainty stemming not only from weather conditions, but also from the growing inter-dependence between cereals and livestock in developed market economies (and soon also in Eastern Europe) and from the increased reliance on trade to satisfy consumption needs. Any serious crop failure could have dramatic consequences for the masses of the population in importing developing countries.

The regional food problem

11. The above succinct analysis of the causes of the food problem at the global level provides the background for the regional food gap and related problems. In broad terms, it reflects the major trends and problems faced with regard to food in countries of Western Asia. During the past twenty years, the growth performance of food production in these countries centered around 2.5 P©r cent per annum, varying widely from country to country with extremes from -0,2 per cent per annum in the Yemen A.R. to 5·0 per cent per annum in Lebanon, as illustrated in Table 1.

xv i Introduction

12. During the past two decades food production in Western Asia did not match population growth (around 3.0 per cent per annum) and largely fell short of domestic food demand (4·5~5·0 Per cen^ per annum), depending on differing country situations. Population, the largest component of food demand, grew at very high rates, even when compared with world standards. The continued failure of produc-tion to keep pace with increases in population has slowly created and later on widened the food gap which has reached dangerous proportions, as reflected by intense balance of payments1 pressures in several countries. A number of countries of the region, which were small exporters for a number of basic food commodities, have turned into importers during the last decade.

13. These developments also badly affected the nutritional situation. Presently, the average energy supply per capita does not meet (by more than 10 per cent in several cases) the daily requirements, estimated at 2 450 kilocalories per day. It is the rural poor and lower income urban strata which have suffered most, to the extent that their physical growth and development have been impaired.

14· The extreme fluctuations in food production, coupled with heavy and increas-ing reliance on imports to satisfy food demand, and the uneven distribution and intake of food among the population provide the general setting in which the regional food problem has made its impact. Clearly and particularly when viewed in the wider context of world agriculture, the past course of events should be reversed. Any further failure of food production could result in more painful and dramatic experience in several countries of Western Asia. The required general attack on rural poverty in the region is constrained by many obstacles, but the relative abundance of capital for development in this oil-rich region ought to facilitate this enormous task. Y

15· In view of the above considerations the Joint ECWA/FAO Agriculture Division has given primary attention to food security issues in its overall work pro-gramme for the region. This is reflected in the various chapters which make ,up this volume and which represent a variety of situations focusing on the central issue of food security. They are reproduced with minor modifications in order to maintain their original identity and the specific problem areas to which they are addressed.

16. Part I considers short-term possibilities to increase food production in selected countries of the region. These are possibilities which do not involve structural changes in productive resources. They encompass technical and socio-economic measures which could have a favourable effect on agricultural production in the short-run. Crop insurance, simple agronomic practices, economic incentives and price policies are all illustrations of such short-term possibilities.

17· Part II focuses on food security planning. It is specifically concerned with the risks embodied in rainfed production. It attempts to challenge the present "helpless" attitude toward rainfall fluctuations by showing that there are possibilities for controlling the environment or at least adapting to the changing environment. This involves first the establishment of a warning system based on early knowledge of rainfall records in different ecological zones. Second, it discusses the development of stock-and-allocation models to hedge against

7 It is in order to draw attention to the very important diversity in country situations in Western Asia, particularly with regard to land and water avail-ability, agricultural labour - skilled and unskilled, capital resources, differing economic systems and, in general, the degree of development, that these basic differences between countries should continuously be kept in mind when reflecting on and evaluating possibilities to increase food pro-duction in the region.

Introduction XVI1

production shor t fa l ls · The analysis is based on empirical case studies drawn from Jordan and Syria.

18. Part I I I deals exclusively with Arab trade in agricultural commodities and i t s implications for regional food security. F i r s t , i t discusses the structure of Arab trade and related inherent weaknesses. Second, i t considers al ternat ive strategies linked to these weaknesses, with part icular emphasis on measures to promote intra-regional trade on the one hand, and approaches for the diversif ica-t ion of supply sources on the other.

19. These a re t h r e e important dimensions for reg ional food s e c u r i t y which t o my knowledge have not been considered with respect t o food s e c u r i t y in o the r regions of t he world. I t i s hoped t h a t t h i s volume w i l l provide enough s t imulus and i n t e r e s t t o pursue t h e subject more i n t e n s i v e l y . Apart from enhanced food s e c u r i t y , t h i s should provide a s i g n i f i c a n t s t r i d e i n t h e reach for i n t e r n a t i o n a l s t a b i l i t y and world s e c u r i t y .

TABLE 1: POPULATION, FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR FOOD IN SELECTED COUNTRIES OF WESTERN ASIA, 1952-72

Country

I raq Jordan Lebanon Syrian A.R. Yemen A.R. Yemen P.D.R.

Popula-t i o n

Food p r o -duct ion

a/

Domestic food demand b / e /

Percentage r a t e of growth per year e /

3.3 3.2 2,8 3.0 2.4 2.4

2.8

1.8

5.0

1.8

- 0 . 2

1,6

5-2

6,6

3.1

4.6

3-9 - 1 . 0

Die tary energy supply c / d/

K i l o c a l o r i e s per c a p i t a per day

2 160

2 430

2 28Ο

2 65Ο

2 O4O

2 070

Percentage of r e q u i r e -ments

90 99 92

107 84 86

Pro te in supply c / d /

Grammes per capita per day

60

65

63

75

61

57

Source: United Nations World Food Conference, Assessment of t h e world food s i t u a t i o n , present and f u t u r e , 5-I6 November 1974, ( E / C O N F . 6 5 / 3 ) , p p . 5 1 - 5 4 .

a/ Food component of crop and l i ve s tock product ion only ( i . e . excluding f i sh product ion)

b / Calcula ted on the b a s i s of growth of populat ion and per c a p i t a income, and es t imates of income e l a s t i c i t y of demand given by FAQ Commodity P ro j ec t i ons 1970-80, Rome, 1971

c / Tota l food, inc lud ing f i sh

d/ 1969-71 average é / Expotent ia l t r e n d 1952-72 f/ Revised s tandards of average requirements (phys io log ica l requirements p lus 10

per cent for waste at household l e v e l )

Parti SHORT-TERM POSSIBILITIES FOR INCREASING

FOOD PRODUCTION IN SELECTED ARAB COUNTRIES

Chapter 1

Present Food Position and Demand Perspectives

20· The purpose of this chapter is to assess the present 1975 food position in the six important producing countries of the ECWA region· To repeat, the 1975 produc-tion estimates should only be considered as normative or indicative of a typical year and they do not necessarily correspond to the actual 1975 data· Pood demand is then projected to 1980 and 1985 giving an order to magnitude of expected growth in both basic and affluence demand. Should present production levels remain relatively unchanged, the rise in present food deficits can be gauged in the light of projected food demand.

Present food position

21. Details of 1975 production estimates for the five selected commodities and for each individual country are given in Annex II, Table 6, Part I. However, a proper grasp of the present food position may be obtained by considering a frequency

distribution of the six producing countries according to the size of food deficits as shown in Table 2.

22. Several important observations can be made from this distribution table. Although it comprises the most important agricultural producers of the ECWA region, they are almost entirely a food deficit group. There is a surplus in two commodi-ties (vegetable oils, red meat) in only one country - Syrian A.R. The relatively large production of cottonseed oil in that country gives a comfortable surplus over the country's consumption requirements and a relative success in developing live-stock production over past years resulted in matching demand and even producing a small surplus of red meat.

23. The two most serious food deficit groups of countries occur with respect to rice and sugar, where the figure reaches one hundred per cent for most of the coun-tries concerned. These two commodities represent a real threat since they consti-tute important elements which compose food diets. The threat is aggrevated by ecological constraints which impose severe limitations on expanding the production of these commodities, let alone their introduction into the cropping pattern of these same countries.

24. It was also noted that the burden of food deficits is generally distributed in a manner which is disproportionate to the resource base and endowments of the coun-tries. Thus, countries like Jordan, Lebanon, Yemen A.R. and Yemen P.D.R. have more serious deficits than Iraq and Syrian A.R. which possess a stronger and more

1

2 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

developed resource base. The strategic roles played by the irrigated sectors in the latter two countries, as well as their extensive pastures and range, account for the relatively small deficits in wheat and red meat production (with regard to the latter commodity, as mentioned in paragraph 22 Syrian A.R, manages a surplus). The burden of food deficits is thus heavily inflicted on countries with lesser in-digenous means of meeting the costly import bill. The aggregate 1975 food posi-tion picture for the group of six countries is given in Table 3- Food deficits are valued at average going world prices in order to obtain an order of magnitude con-cerning the size of the aggregate import bill.

25. A striking observation from Table 3 is that both in absolute and relative terms the present deficit of refined sugar is extremely important. Moreover, imports of refined sugar represent half the import bill of the five commodities in the group of six countries and are a heavy drain on scarce foreign exchange re-sources in these countries. The 1975 sugar position in the group of six countries lends support to the primordial importance of boosting domestic production and effecting proper purchasing and stocking operations.

26. Taking into account other food imports, the total import bill for food and beverages in 1975 ?0T ^ e group of six countries was in the neighbourhood of 1.8 billion U.S. dollars. This constituted some 22 per cent of their combined imports and 7 per cent of their GDP· Noteworthy is the particular situation regarding Yemen A.R. where the total import bill for food and beverages is half the total import trade. In the group of six countries the import bill of deficits for the five commodities represents 42 per cent of the total food and beverage imports.

27. Assuming an average incremental capital-out put ratio of 3» the required investment to eliminate the present food deficit (say over a period of five years) would be around 5·5 billion (1975) U»S. dollars, or about 1 billion U.S. dollars annually. This would require a major improvement over the agricultural investment performance of the early 1970's (1970-1973), when actual annual capital outlay in agriculture, inclusive of irrigation, was of the order of U.S.$200 million in the group of six countries and also a doubling of effort over the 1974-1975 estimated performance of U.S.$400 million per year. Y However, capital may not be the limiting factor due to the substantial accumulation of oil wealth in the region. The real bottleneck is the implementation capacity of the countries concerned.

28. Clearly, the present food deficits correspond to existing nutritional levels. Any improvement in these levels would have a direct and positive effect on the magnitude of food deficits. The scope for upgrading the dietary position in the group of six countries may be roughly gauged by comparison with prevailing inter-national levels as shown in Table 4·

29. The nutritional implications of the information in Table 4 are revealing. Except for Yemen A.R. and Yemen P.D.R. the rest of the group of six countries manages per capita consumption levels which compare favourably with other develop-ing regions, (detailed data are given in Table 3, Annex II, Part I. Per capita annual cereal consumption is very high, even by world standards. Indeed, the main characteristic of the diet in the group of six is the heavy reliance on cereals, which provide more than 50 per cent of the daily energy supply. On the contrary, the per capita intake of livestock products, in casu red meat, is rather low and readily explains the small proportion of animal protein in the total protein supply. The latter is a cause for concern, even if total protein supply is above require-ments, as is the case in the group of six, ±/ The per capita consumption of vege-table oils rates relatively high due to the fact that vegetable oils are the basis for local cuisine. 1/ Calculated on the basis of information secured from national sources.

^/At present average daily nutritional requirements for Near East countries are estimated by FAO at 2 450 calories and 45-5 grammes of proteins.

Present Food Position 3

TABLE 2: DISTRIBUTION OF PRODUCING COUNTRIES BY SIZE OF 1975 FOOD DEFICITS (EXPRESSED AS PER CENT OF TOTAL CONSUMPTION)

^ f Surplus \ o r Def i -

Commodity^!

Wheat

Rice

Sugar

Vegetable o i l s

Red meat

Surplus

Syrian AR

Syrian AR

Less than 15#

Syrian AR I raq

Iraq Yemen AR

a/

16 t o 3<#

Yemen AR

31 t o 45#

I raq

Yemen PDR

46 t o 60fo

Jordan

Lebanon

Yemen PDR

Jordan

61 t o 80fo

Yemen AR Yem.FDR

Lebanon

Jordan

Lebanon

!>core than

Lebanon

Jordan Lebanon Syrian AR Yemen AR Yemen PDR

Iraq Jordan Syrian AR Yemen AR Yemen PDR

I raq

Source: ECWA - compiled on the basis of Annex IIf Part I.

BJ Yemen AR1 s agricultural economy is characterized by subsistence farming; the relatively large and important livestock sector, which is operated exclusively under extensive conditions, assures the country's self-sufficiency in meat (at a low level),

TABLE 3: 1975 FOOD POSITION. FOR GROUP OF SIX COUNTRIES

Commodity

Wheat g ra in Rice , mi l led Sugar, r e f ined Vegetable o i l s Red meat and o f f a l s

TOTAL

Consumption

3 651,0 406,4 700.0 243.Ο ! 337.8

Production ?housand K.T,

2 763.Ο 152.1 57.5

145*4 272.4

Def ic i t

880.0 254.3 642.5

97.6 65.4

Average world p r i ce - c . i . f . USS per t on

170 425 600 550

1 200

Import b i l l of d e f i c i t s Mi l . US$

151,0 108,1 385.5

53.7 78.5

776,8

Source: ECWA on the basis of information provided "by PAO, Food Information No.1, 1976 and PAO Monthly Bulletin of Agricultural Economics and Statistics« Vol· 21, No. 11, November 1975f and Annex II.Part I.

4 Food Secur i ty Issues in the Arab Near East

TABLE 4 : COMPARISON OF1 1975 PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION LEVELS IN THE GROUP OP SIX COUNTRIES WITH OTHER REGIONS (KILOGRAMMES PER AKUUM)

Commodity

TOTAL CEREALS

Viheat f l o u r C o a r s e g r a i n s ,

f l ou r Rice , mi l led Sugar, r e f ined Vegetable o i l s Red meat and

Offals

Group of Six

Yemen AR

22.6

107.2 1.1 7.8 1.2

6.9

Yem. PUR

48.6

20.9 17.3 17.9

3-5

10.3

Rest of Group

121.9

1.5 16.0

26.7

9-9

11.8

Developing Regions

Near East

95.8

42.3 15.9 19.5 6.1

1 1 . 7 ^

Asia and Par East

28.5

89.I 28.4 19.8 3.8

3.8*/

South America

41.5

21.5 28.4 39.2

6,0

Western J Europe^/

76.3

8.3 2.9

33.8 14.6

5 5 - 5 ^

Source: ECWAf on the bas i s of Annex I I , Table 3 f Part I , and PAO Agricultural Commodity Projections 1970-19Q0t Rome 1971 f Vol. 2, higfr a l t ernat ive .

a/ Original six members of the EEC

b/ Excluding offals, on average 20 per cent of carcass weight.

TABLE 5: PERSPECTIVES OP 1985 FOOD DEMAND IN GROUP OP SIX COUNTRIES (THOUSAND M.T.; PERCENTAGES)

Commodity

Wheat f l ou r p i c e , m i l l e d Sugar, re f ! nd. Vegetable o i l s Red meat and

Offals

1975 Consump-t i o n

3 Ο55.Ο ! 4Ο6.4 700.0 243.Ο

337.8

Average annual requirement s

Basic

126.6 17.7 29.1 IO.5

15.9

Aff lu-ence

-22 .8 11.8 14.3 8,3

21.9

High

IO3.8 29.5 43.4 18.8

37.8

1985 aggregate demand

Low

4 324.Ο 633.0

1 064.0

385.Ο

593 0

High

4 093.O 701,0

1 134.0 431.0

716,0

1975-85 growth ra te of per cap. iemand (% p . a . )

Low

0.2 1.2 0 .9 1.3

2.5

High

- 0 . 6 2.2 1.6 2.6 j

4 .5

Source: ECWA on the basis of Annex II, Table 2, Part I.

30. It will be recalled that the average daily energy in the group of six coun-tries falls short of requirements and markedly so in Yemen A.R, and Yemen P.D.R. Table 4 reflects the difference between the two Yemens and the rest of the group of six countries. In the two Yemens the nutritional status of the population is generally weak. In Yemen A.R. millets, sorghum and slaughtered livestock provide the bulk of energy supplies from domestic sources and represent almost 50 per cent of per capita daily energy supply. On the other hand, the per capita intake of commodities that are largely or exclusively imported (rice, sugar, vegetable oils

Present Food Position 5

and wheat) is very low. This reflects scarcity of foreign exchange available in the country and the limited purchasing power of the population. In Yemen P.D.R., the diet is more diversified and the very low per capita consumption level of cereals is explained by a substantial consumption of fish (exceeding 20 kg. per annum)· On the whole, however, per capita consumption levels in the group of six countries fall short of an acceptable average to provide a sufficient daily energy supply. The underlying reasons for this situation are the same as for Yemen A.R. and are enumerated above. Finally, it is noted that the rural part of Yemen P.D.R, is more dietary deficient than the urban part since the per capita consumption levels of all commodities, particularly red meat, in the latter are significantly higher than in the former. This may be explained by the fact that the rural sector is not able to sustain itself due to extremely low productivity and lack of sufficient government attention over the past years,

31· In the group of six countries surplus protein, of which the average diet is in short supply, would be an expensive source of additional energy. The scope for dietary improvement should focus first on the provision of an adequate number of calories and second on increased consumption of livestock products. For the poor-er sections of the population this would mean further increasing the already very high levels of wheat consumption and also increasing the intake of white meat, fish and pulses. In urban areas the consumption of rice, sugar, vegetable oils and, particularly, red meat and other livestock products, would increase. On the whole, an improved diet would xveight heavily on the import basket and inflate import bills. Thus, not only cereal consumption has to attain higher levels but commodi-ties which are mainly or exclusively imported have also to be procured in much larger quantities, Obviously, the most convenient and economical approach consists of feeding more wheat grain to the population. Thus for instance, an across-the-board increase of 5 kg. in wheat flour consumption per capita per annum in the group of six countries would add 48 calories per day, or 4 Ver cent of require-ments and 1.6 grammes of protein. This operation would require an additional 182 000 tons of wheat grain imports at a cost of U.S.$31 million only, On the other hand, an increase in red meat consumption from the present 10.7 kg. to 13 kg» per capita per annum would require an extra 72 000 tons of meat imports costing U,S,$86 million (sizeably more than present imports). The nutritional value would be an additional Ο.85 grammes of animal protein per capita per day, or 1.9 Per cen^ of daily protein requirements (and 13,7 calories). It is clear therefore, with regard to Yemen A.R. and Yemen P.D.R, that an immediate modest improvement in the level of food intake (e.g.5 kg, of wheat flour per capita per annum) would be dif-ficult , if not excluded, in view of the cost,

32. Better diets would necessitate supplementary financing, which in the case of Yemen A.R. and Yemen P.D.R,,where extra food intake is most urgently needed, may not be available for that purpose. In this connection, it is emphasized that food aid supplies ought to be tailored much more to the country's specific needs. For these two countries, already densely populated (per hectare of cropped land), with negligible unexploited resources and at the mercy of climatic hazards and natural disasters, a high level of food aid will remain essential during the coming years, even if it is of uncertain value for economic development. However, even in these countries, the real solution to the serious problems of nutrition residues, in the long run, is the increase of domestic food production.

Long-term demand perspectives

33· A convenient way to compose a picture of long-term food demand perspectives (Annex II, Table 2, Part I) for the group of six countries is to start from popula-tion figures and consumption requirements adjusted to reflect the income elasticity of demand for the commodities under consideration.

6 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

34· '"he total population of the group of six countries currently numbers 31-5 million but it is expected to rise by 43-5 million by 1985 (an annual compound rate of grovrth of 3,3 per cent per annum). The projected growth rates in the group of six countries range from 2.7 per cent per annum in Yemen P,D,R. to 3,44 per cent per annum in Iraq ( 1975-1980) and 3-5 per cent per annum in Jordan (198O-I985) With these parameters in mind, we can readily estimate the annual requirements to feed the .growing population. These basic requirements have nothing to do with eliminating malnutrition or improving diets, they simply maintain the status quo,

35- In addition to these basic requirements, it is also possible to estimate the annual incremental food requirements which attend the general improvement in in-come levels and which may be termed the 'affluence' requirements. In this per-spective, the annual growth rate of per capita food demand during the 1975-1985 period has been calculated for each of the five commodities. To find the average annual basic and affluence incremental requirements for the group of six countries during the 1975-1985 period, the relative shares of the growth in food demand due to population growth and to increases in per capita income are applied to the absolute increase in food demand over this period and are then averaged over 10 years, The results of all these estimates are given in Table 5*

36, 1985 aggregate demand under both alternatives reflects a substantial increase for each of the commodities. Under the low alternative, the additional demand is almost entirely due to rapid population growth (basic requirements). Under the high alternative, the relative share of affluence requirements in the average total annual requirements is substantial for all commodities, except wheat. It ranges between 33 per cent for sugar and 58 per cent for red meat. Moreover, under the high alternative, the considerable increase in per capita Protein Calorie Equival-ent (PCS) causes a distinct shift in the demand pattern for commodities of high value. This significant change in the demand structure of the group of six coun-tries would be from carbohydrates to animal protein.

37· Indeed, shortly after 198Ο the per capita demand in the group cf six countries should level off· The decline, however, will be more than made up for by a higher per capita rice demand, a consequence of rapidly increasing urbanization. By 1985 the demand for red meat and vegetables should increase by 98 per cent and 77 per cent respectively over 1975· It should reach1l6.4 kg. of red meat and 9-9 kg. of vegetable oils per capita per annum in the group of six countries. These remarkable increases are due, for half or more, to the drive for consumption to catch up with the expectations of a better and more varied diet as per capita income increases. The already relatively high per capita demand for sugar at present should further increase, but at a lesser rate than that of vegetable oils or rice. All in all, the 1985 demand picture under the high alternative should pose an unprecedented challenge to agricultural production in the group of six countries.

38. In this context, an aspect to be highlighted in Yemen A.R. is the shift away from coarse grains, the major staple, in favour of wheat grain (Table 2f Annex II, Part I) contrary to Yemen P.D.R. where coarse grains demand should increase slightly faster than wheat demand. In Yemen A.R. wheat demand (5.8 per cent per annum) should be significantly higher than demand for coarse grains (3.6 per cent per annum).

39·. It is also noteworthy that the nutritional situation was generally better in 1975 due to a more abundant and varied diet, particularly £n Syrian A.R. and Iraq, (Table 3, Annex II, Part I). In the latter two countries, the average diet should be nutritionally satisfactory in 1985. At the other end of the scale, the dietary situation in Yemen A.R. and Yemen P.D.R. should improve but will remain severely deficient for large sections of the population. In these two countrieS| human

Present Food Position 7

development p o t e n t i a l would hinge l a r g e l y on t h e improved physical condi t ion of b e t t e r - f e d people,

40 . The 1985 food demand pe r spec t ives are a larming, p a r t i c u l a r l y under t h e high var ian t income a l t e r n a t i v e . Should the 1975 production condi t ion l e v e l s remain r e l a t i v e l y unchanged, t he food p o s i t i o n would worsen dramat ica l ly as r e f l e c t e d by the sharp drop in s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y r a t i o s (SSR) demonstrated in Table 6,

4 L Table 6 c l e a r l y demonstrates t h a t the 1985 food pos i t i on under present p r o -duction condi t ions would leave the group of s i x coun t r i e s over ly dependent on the r e s t of the world for secur ing i t s supp l ies of key food commodities- The plunge of t h e SSR of red meat and vegetable o i l s x-jould d e f i n i t e l y be most pronounced,but more important would be t he absolute s h o r t f a l l in such s t r a t e g i c commodities as wheat and sugar . The wheat gra in d e f i c i t would affect a l l coun t r i e s of the group of s i x and reach over 2 mi l l ion tons The sugar gap would be c lose t o one mi l l i on t o n s . In 1975, p r i c e s for such an opera t ion for only these two commodities would have cost some U,S,C1 b i l l i o n . In years of genera l ized food c r i s e s , import p r i c e s may be p r o h i t i t i v e for severa l coun t r i e s of t h e group of s i x and t h i s could lead t o ou t r igh t food shor tages in some coun t r i e s -

42- Another outcome t o be contended with i s the s t agna t ion of food product ion which would lead t o an untenable soc ia l s i t u a t i o n , Tt would preclude any improve-ment in the s tandard of l i v i n g of the r u r a l popula t ions and thus fu r the r widen the ru ra l -u rban d i f f e r ences . The problem of food procurement may be magnified t o the extent t h a t the governments would not be able t o secure adequate amounts at the proper time at reasonable p r i c e s . The d i r e c t i o n and magnitude of t h e necessary changes in product ion in the medium-term for t h e group of s i x coun t r i e s i s obvious, Se l f - su f f i c i ency in wheat should be a r e l a t i v e l y easy t a r g e t but t o r a i s e the SSR of sugar t o between 30 and 50 would requ i re tremendous e f f o r t s on the par t of the producing coun t r i e s of the group. The SSR of red meat, vegetable o i l s and r i c e should be maintained at the present l e v e l s ,

TABLE 6: PERSPECTIVES OF 1985 POOR POSITION UNDER PRESENT PRODUCTION CONDITIONS (THOJSATO M.T.)

Commodity

Wheat gra in Rice , mi l led Sugar, r e f ined Vegetable o i l s Red meat and

Offals

1975 Î'ood p o s i t i o n

Consumption

3 651.Ο 406,4 700.0 243.Ο

337^8

Production

2 763.Ο 152,1 57.5

1/!5,4

272.4

SSR a/

75 37

8 60

81

1985 Perspect ives(r l igh)

Demand SSR a/

4 876.Ο 701.0

1 134-0 431.0

716.0

57 22 5

34

38

Source: ECWA on the bas is of Annex I I , Table 2 , Part I .

a/ SSR: product ion over consumption, expressed in percentages

Chapter 2

Production Plans and Projected Food Deficits

43. Obviously food production in the group of six countries will not remain un-changed. Governments are conscious of the common threat confronting them. Spiral-l ing food demand has not only economic implications, but also socio-poli t ical ramifications. So for these reasons and others, i t represents a great challenge to the countries of the ECWA region.

44· In t h i s chapter an attempt i s f i r s t made to arrive at an order of magnitude concerning government medium-term plans to extend food production. The 1980 pro-duction targets are subsequently confronted with the high variant projected demands in order to study the developments of food def ic i t s . The group of six countries i s then considered by the size of projected group defici ts and a comparison made with the resul ts previously obtained in Table 2, Also, the projected food deficit b i l l (measured in 1975 prices) i s contrasted with the estimate given in Table 3.

Medium-term production estimates and projected food defici ts

45. The 1976-1980 development plans of most governments were not finalized at the time th i s part of the study was undertaken. However, some indication of the order of magnitude and direction of these plans was obtained and has been used as a basis for the estimates given hereafter. The production estimates were confronted specifically with the 198Ο high variant projected food demand since the parameters of that variant reflected closely the assumptions embodied in government plans, The resul ts are given in Table 7«

46. The growth rates of medium-term demand for the five commodities concerned in the group of six countries are no doubt high. They range from 3·8 per cent per annum for wheat grain to 7·6 per cent per annum for red meat and about 5.6 per cent per annum for the other commodities, but the envisaged growth rates in the group of six countries are simply staggering. This i s part icularly the case for sugar (49 Per cent per annum), r ice (20.5 per cent per annum), and wheat (13·4 per cent per annum). Even annual increases of 7·9 and 5.1 per cent in the production of vegetable o i l s and red meat represent a complete break-away from the his tor ical trend.

47· Assuming attainment of the planned t a rge t s , the present wheat deficit in the group of six countries would turn into a surplus of around 0.8 million tons. There would also be some cause for optimism with regard to sugar and r i ce , for which the relat ive shortfal l would be reduced to 50 and 30 per cent of demand respectively·

9

10 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

However, in absolute terms the 1980 sugar gap still holds sufficient reason for a close watch to be kept on international market developments and properly managed purchasing and stocking operations. Vegetable oils and red meat would remain prob-lem commodities in the group of six countries. Deficits in these two commodities grow larger in both absolute and relative terms. The red meat deficit would double to reach almost 140 000 tons. The 1980 food position provides supporting evidence for the case of multi-national or regional cooperation in production and trade of such key commodities as red meat, vegetable oils, rice and sugar,

48. The import bill for the commodities concerned would still remain considerable even by taking an optimistic view. This would mainly be due to the heavily deficient sugar production and the worsening livestock position, A shortfall in production from the 1980 production plans or a tight world market may well push the import bill to over U.S.SO.8 billion at 1975 prices. Anyway, the import bill over the years to come is likely to increase fast due to inflationary pressures, Assuming an average of 7 per cent, the total import bill of 198Ο deficits would reach over U.S.SO.8 billion. Thus, in case of major production shortfalls, the cost of imports would easily be well over U.S.S 1 billion. Additional investment requirements to wipe out this deficit over the medium-term would be impressive but, as pointed out earlier, this may not be relevant in view of agriculture's re-strained absorptive capacity. Moreover, ecological constraints do not allow certain crops to be grown in some countries of the region.

49. Comparison of the 1980 food deficits to those of 1975 in the group of six countries shows that gains in reducing the relative size of the deficits are con-fined to Iraq and Syrian A.R. The scatter of the other countries (those with a poor agricultural resource base) remains clustered, with food deficits ranging from 61 per cent and more of the total consumption. Thus, the latter countries would still rely heavily on imports of key food commodities in 198Ο, despite efforts envisaged in their new production plans to anchor their position.

50. The 1980 relative size of food deficits in Yemen P.D.R. and Jordan would be virtually the same as at present, except for wheat improvement in Jordan, On the contrary, the situation in Yemen A.R, and Lebanon would be further aggravated. In both countries the position with regard to Vegetable oils and red meat would de-teriorate, while for other commodities the deficiencies would remain at the same grave levels of 1975- ^n Yemen A.R, the odds against agricultural development are many, and it may take more time to bring about a self-sustained food production process. In Lebanon the absence of a sound agricultural development strategy leads to chaotic development of food production. In addition, the country's implementa-tion capacity in the agricultural sector is in a poor state. However, it is emphasized that Lebanon has made remarkable achievements in fruit and vegetable production and in poultry development,

51t The most conspicious change shown in Table 8, compared with Table 2, is the general and impressive progress that would be achieved in the Syrian A.R. In addition to the present surpluses in vegetable oils and red meat, the country would be self-sufficient in sugar and would manage to export a relative surplus of wheat by 198Ο. The shortfall with regard to rice would be reduced to a small proportion of consumption compared to complete import dependence as at present. The under-lying reason for such developments is the tremendous payoff hoped for as a result of the planned development of irrigated agriculture. In Iraq, important progress would take place but at a more moderate rate. In relative terms 1980 deficits would shrink for all commodities,compared with 1975» except red meat where it would be difficult for production to catch up with demand. The 1980 situation with respect to each of the commodities in each of the countries of the group of six can be evaluated at once by observing Tables 7 and 8, Annex IIt Part I.

Production Plans and Projected Food Deficits

TABLE 7: PROJECTED 1980 POOD DEFICITS FOR GROUP OF SIX COUNTRIES (THOUSAND M.T.)

Commodity

Wheat, g ra in Rice , mi l led Sugar, r e f ined Vegetable o i l s Red meat and

Offals

TOTAL I

1975 Def ic i t

888.0 254.2 642.5

97.6

65.4

1980 Estimates

Projec ted d e -mand (high)

4 395.Ο 530.0 889.Ο 322.0

487.Ο

Production plans

5 181.0 386,8 423.4 212.9

348,9

Pro jec ted d e f i c i t

(+ 786.Ο) 143.2 465.6 109.1

138,1

Pro jec ted im-port b i l l in 1975 p r i c e s (Mil l ion USS)

(+ 133 600) I 60 900

279 400 60 000

165 700

566 000 j

TABLE 8: DISTRIBUTION OP PRODUCING COUNTRIES BY SIZE OP 1980 POOD DEPICITS (EXPRESSED AS # OP TOTAL CONSUMPTION)

H ^ ^ ^ . Def ic i t Commod^^^^

i t y ^ ^ * \ ^

Wheat

Rice

Sugar

Vegetable o i l s

Red meat

Surplus

Iraq. Syrian AR

Syr ian AR

Syrian AR

Syrian AR

Less j t h a n 15^

I raq

I6-30/0

Syrian AR

I raq pTemen AR

31-45/

Jordan

Yemen AR Yemen PDR

46-6056

Jordan Yemen PDR

61-80/

Yemen AR Yemen PDR

I r aq Lebanon

I r aq Lebanon Jordan

Kove than 8 1 /

Lebanon

Lebanon Jordan Yemen AR Yemen PDR

Jordan Yemen AR Yemen PDR

Lebanon

Source: (for Tables 7 and 8) ECWA on the "basis of Table 7, Annex IIf Part I.

11

Chapter 3

New Policy Orientation and Pressure Mechanisms

52. The expansion of food production inevitably requires new policy orientations as well as "built-in inducement pressure mechanisms. These aspects invariably involve propositions of a longer term than those envisaged in this study. A con-sideration of some of these propositions however is deemed a necessary step to providing a suitable vantage point for the remainder of the study. Thus, while this chapter focuses on certain structural aspects of agricultural production, the following chapters concentrate on strategic and tactical considerations.

New policy orientations

53. First and foremost the broad policy orientation which needs reconsideration is the perceived role of agriculture. Almost all economic development doctrines sinoe the 1950's have regarded agriculture as the handmaiden of industrial develop-ment, thereby shaping agricultural development policies for more than two decades. According to these doctrines, agriculture must make a positive contribution to overall economic development by accumulating and transferring to the non-agricultural sector invest able surpluses. The transfer has been carried out by various policy instruments ranging from direct requisition of crop quotas to intersectoral profit transfers resulting from agriculture^ deteriorating terms of trade. The range between these two extremes is spanned by an array of adminis-trative controls comprising price policies, acreage allotment, and control over the distribution of farm inputs. Obviously, agricultural investment has been re-strained under these conditions as can be noted from Table 9·

54· Although the agricultural sector recently has been given more prominence, the allocations for agricultural investment are incompatible with the sector^ impor-tance« Furthermore, the real crux of the problem lies with investment performance. Thus, other sectors of the economy record large and sometimes even impressive achievements reflecting an implementation ratio of 70 per cent or more. It remains beyond contention however, that over the past two decades food production has been a sector in which targets were never achieved. Actual investment invariably has been less than 50 per cent of planned agricultural investment. Agricultural plans are characterized by an almost complete »oversight* of projects which have a direct impact on increasing food production. Another factor is the complete lack of appropriate economic and other incentives, which would create an environment conducive to stimulating farmers to take action to make the essential investments to increase production themselves. In past plane there were no policies to encourage the large number of small farmers to develop in a manner which would give them optimal returns.

13

14 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

55· The above lends support to the conclusion that fit is the appalling gap be-tween plans and programmes on the one hand and farming actualities on the other hand which makes the future outlook so cloudy» 1/. Any increase in food production in the region ultimately hinges on intensifying particularly direct productive agricultural investment. This will at least require meeting present investment plan targets. More important is the fact that it may necessitate structural chan-ges in development strategy. The emergence of the »dual economy* and its twin evils of mass unemployment and mass migration into the cities will not be healed by time alone. These inter-connected problems require conscious counteraction if a process of mutual poisoning is to be avoided. The existence of the modern sector is hardly open to doubt but what needs questioning is the implicit assump-tion that the modern sector can be expanded to absorb virtually the entire popula-tion and that this can be done fairly quickly. It is underlined that in all countries of the region the overwhelming problems are with agriculture and the improvement of rural life, since the majority of poverty-stricken people live in rural areas. The traditional sector therefore, is to be made the object of special development efforts. This would mean the adoption of a regional (zonal) approach to development, the allocation of a large share of investable funds to the rural zones and the introduction of an intermediate technology that recognizes the economic boundaries and limitations of poverty 2/#

56. Another broad policy orientation meriting serious study is the role of food production within the general context of agricultural production. As shown in Table 10 there is close similarity between the rates of change of total agricul-tural output and food production. This suggests that food production has not been favoured in spite of the threat of food shortages.

57. It is possible that external factors such as pressures for foreign exchange, fibre production (cotton) and other commercial products to honour trade commit-ments have slowed down the emphasis on food production which, otherwise, would be predictable. For example, financing armaments and war material may have locked some countries into specialized production other than food. Noteworthy also is the major problem of spreading qat production in the Yemen, seriously restraining the expansion of food production.

58. Increasing food production also requires rationalization of existing policies; particular stress should be put on import-export policies. For instance, in recent years the Yemen exported 4 000-5 000 tons of seed cotton (containing about 5OO tons of cottonseed oil), whereas its imports of vegetable oils amounted to 4 5OO tons. Such irrational policies may be explained by shortages of ginning and crushing facilities. The elimination of these processing constraints should be given top priority in the development strategy in order to improve the country^ food position. A similar example is from Iraq, Lebanon and Syrian A.R. where the absence of a comprehensive sugarbeet production for development programmes, including processing facilities, hampers the expansion of the sugarbeet and sugar-cane crops.

59· Another illustration of possible policy rationalization involves the whole arena of consumption planning. Vegetable oil consumption provides a good example. Table 11 shows the relative importance of the consumption of olive oil in three countries of the region. World shadow prices of these and other substitute oils are given as background for estimating the order of foregone opportunity.

V P. L. Yates, Agricultural Adjustment in the Near East, FAO Near East Regional Office, Cairo, November 1973| p.46.

2/ E. F. Schumacher, Small is Beautiful, a study of economics as if people mattered, London, I973t pp. 136-159

New Policy Orientation and Pressure Mechanisms 15

TABLE 9: PLANNED PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURE AND OTHER SECTORS IN THE GROUPS OP SIX COUNTRIES

Iraq (millions of I.D.)

1961/62 - 1965/66 1965/66 - 1969/70 1969/7Ο - 1974/75

Jordan (millions of J.D.)

1964 - 197Ο 1973 - 1975

Lebanon (millions of L.L.]

1965 - 1969 1972 - 1977

Syrian A.R. (millions of L.S.)

1960/61 - 1964/65 1966 - 197Ο 1971 - 1975

Yemen A.R. (millions of Y.R.)

|l974 - 1976

Yemen P.D.R. (millions of S.Y.D.)

I1971/72 - 1973/74 [1975 - 1979

Total Planned Public

Investment

556.3 64Ο.Ο

1 145.0

I46.O 100.0

788 1 740

1 720 3 454 6 447

823

41.0 75.0

Share of ag-ricultural investment

20 23 31

37 23.7

17 22

51 27 39.0

17.0

25.7 36.7

Share of actual investment to total planned investment

Total if)

45.9 66.9 n.a.

n.a. n.a.

75.8 n.a.

65.1 77.3 n.a.

n.a.

n.a. n.a.

Agriculture (%)

22.7 32.4 n.a.

n.a. n.a.

63.7 n.a.

28.9 43.7 n.a.

n.a.

n.a. n.a.

n.a· » not available

Source: ECWA on the basis of estimates from national sources.

TABLE 10: AVERAGE ANNUAL CHANGES IN POOD AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCT IOT IN THE GROUP OF SIX COUNTRIES, 1961 - 1974 &

Country

Iraq Jordan Lebanon Syrian A.R. Yemen A.R. Yemen P.D.R.

Pood Production

4.2 -4.6 4.5 1.0 0.9 2.3

Agricultural Production

4.2 -4.2 4.6 1.0 1.0 2.0

a/ Experimental trend from PAO gross production index numbers. Source: ECWAf on the basis of PAO index numbers of gross agricultural production.

16 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

60» The foregone opportunity resulting from consuming high-value oils instead of exporting these oils and importing cheaper oils as substitutes is considerable. Taking a workable proportion of exporting one-third of the hi^i-value oils (thus leaving two-thirds for use in domestic consumption) would result in annual foreign exchange earnings (at U.S,$ 1 400 per ton) of the order of U.S.$2.9 million for Jordan; U.S.$3.4 million for Lebanon and U.S.$11.9 million for Syrian A.R. The amounts may seem to be relatively small for Lebanon and Jordan, nevertheless, they are significant when viewed in proper perspectives.

61. Another example along the same lines concerns the consumption of bread, at present of uniform quality in most countries of the region. The introduction of lower grades of wheat or partial mixing with coarse grains is a potential area for rationalization. Such changes would not affect the nutritional quality and would have the advantage of introducing variety in bread consumption. These may also result in a considerable reduction of heavy subsidies being paid by governments to keep bread prices low. The substitution of poultry and fish, and even pulses, for red meat also holds much scope for rationalization, particularly in view of the considerable price differences and the possibility to curb rapidly mounting import bills for red meat,

62· Undoubtedly, governments should play an important role. First, by introduc-ing a detailed policy of consumption planning and, second, by developing measures to attain objectives. This would require the full mobilization of mass media to induce or even force changes in local diets. It may necessitate crop requisition-ing and/or state marketing and making optimal use of the pricing system, e.g. discriminate pricing of food commodities.

Inducement pressure mechanisms

63. The reorientation of existing policies should be coupled with the development of adequate pressure mechanisms to expand food production. Despite the eminent threat of food crisis, agriculture is not sufficiently »pressurized1 to respond to the surging demand. One possible explanation is the overdependence on regular flows of concessionary supplies and various forms of food aid. In one country of the group studied, total concessionary wheat grants have averaged more than 35 per cent of domestic demand requirements in the last five years. These windfall and painless supplies are invariably taken for granted and constitute an important component in the formulation of future plans. Obviously when concessionary and free supplies are considered as regular sources, an inevitable downward bias is reflected in projected food gaps thereby artifically affecting the setting of pro-duction targets. Ultimately, the pressure mechanism loses its effectiveness. Alternatively, a country having an assurance of food aid should evolve its own policy of required food aid in line with its resource endowment and development possibilities. As pointed out earlier, a high level of food aid will remain essential in both least developed countries of the region, viz: Yemen A.R. and Yemen P.D.R. The shaping of a food aid policy integrated with development policy is a matter or urgent priority.

64. A broader scope for effective inducement pressure mechanisms concerns the identification of specific direct linkages between production and food consumption. An alarming trend has been the increasing dependency of rural people on outside sources for the provision of their food needs. Not only are they unable to meet urban food demand, but are also becoming less able to feed themselves. This is partly explained by the shift to cash crops and their greater integration with urban centres and partly the result of public socio-economic policies aimed at breaking up the structures of »dualistic1 societies.

New Policy Orientation and Pressure Mechanisms 17

65· The food crisis now fosters a reversal of policies. A workable approach involves the creation of two distinct sectors: the connnercial and para-commercial'. The former would be basically responsible for producing marketable surpluses to feed the population of urban centres, particularly large cities. The effectiveness of the pressure mechanism would be dependant on direct linkages of specific pro-ducing and consuming centres.

66. The para-commercial sector would be mostly responsible for itself. It would consist of smaller groups based on autarchy and self-sufficiency at the village or zonal levels. Its market connections with urban centres and the commercial sectors would be severed, while maintaining some links with other components of the para-commercial sector. Thus different parcels of land would have compara-tive advantages in different components of the subsistence diet, e.g. uplands in the production of food grains, irrigated lands in vegetable production.

67. In sum, the above strategy would involve a two-way pressure mechanism: pressure from urban consumers on one segment of agricultural producers, and internal pressure within another segment of agricultural producers to feed them-selves. This strategy requires further investigation and further elaboration as it may provide a valuable alternative for the difficult structural problems facing the countries of the region and, particularly the least developed countries in which food prospects are alarming. "With an economic structure essentially based on traditional agriculture and lacking the human and financial resources needed for rapid development, these countries are faced with a difficult decision: either to produce as much and as fast as possible to satisfy the demand of the rapidly growing urban populations, concentrating on the most modern sector of agriculture, or to try to raise productivity in subsistence agriculture in order to improve the food situation for the great mass of the rural population.w f·/ The above strategy provides the necessary balance whereby progress in the advanced sector would have a stimulating effect on the traditional sector.

TABLE 11: EXAMPLES OF VEGETABLE OIL DEMAND AND WORLD PRICES HT SELECTED COUNTRIES OP THE REGION, 1975 (THOUSAND M.T., U.S.$ PER M.T.)

Country

Jordan Lebanon Syrian A.R.

1975 vegetable oil demand

Olive oil

6.4 7.2 25.5

Total

17.8 26.2 66.9

1975 average world prices

) 400-600 ) U.S.$/Ton

Olive o i l - 2 000 U.S.$/Ton Cottonseed o i l , palm o i l coconut o i l , soybean o i l

Linseed o i l , c a s t o r o i l , ) 700-800 groundnut o i l , palm ) U.S.$/Ton kernel o i l , e t c . )

Source: ECWA, on the bas i s of Annex I , Part I and the PAO Bul l e t in of Agri-cultural Economics and S t a t i s t i c s (various i s sues )

7 P.A. Yotopoulos, The World Pood C r i s i s : Opportunities for Restructuring Agriculturet a lecture del ivered at Carnegie-Mellon Univers i ty , U.S.A. November 1975.

2/ Agricultural Commodities: Trends in World Supply and Demand t o 1985, The OBCD Observer, No. 81 , May-June 1976, p .4 .

Chapter 4

Reconsideration of Production Decisions Under Rain-fed Conditions

68. Much of the scope for significant food production increase in the ECWA region rests in rain-fed agriculture. This is particularly true for such commodities as cereals (wheat and barley), pulses (lentils), and fruit and vegetables. A major constraint on attaining the production potential of the existing vast rain-fed area has been the psychological predisposition of individual farmers in making decisions under conditions of uncertainty. Due to their limited means, small farmers invariably exhibit conservative attitudes and are prone to take very limited risks.

69. Small farmers usually make three types of basic decisions under uncertainty. The first is what to plant: thus in Yemen A.R. the decision to plant wheat or barley vis-à-vis sorghum in the mountain plains and the southern uplands depends largely on farmers1 perceptions of rainfall conditions during the season (farmers can delay the planting of wheat or barley but not the planting of sorghum). Similarly, the decision to plant wheat versus barley in rain-fed areas of Jordan, Syrian A.R. and Iraq hinges largely on these perceptions.

70. A corollary decision is whether to sow the land or leave it fallow. The rela-tive intensity of early rainfalls plays a psychological role in affecting farmers1

perceptions and, subsequently, their decision on whether to sow or not. The third decision concerns fertilization: whether to fertilize or not as well as the rate of fertilization.

71. The purpose of this chapter is to give some order to magnitude of the cost of foregone opportunities resulting from ultra-conservative or wrong decisions. Although the illustrations are based on representative data from Jordan, they re-flect conditions similar to those found in other countries of the group studied. The illustrations set the stage for policy conclusions related to the reconsidera-tion of production strategies in rain-fed areas.

72. Farmers· decisions on which crops to plant are ultimately made on the basis of expected net profitability. Table 12 shows the estimated probability of different levels of rainfall in various zones in East Jordan. On the basis of these probabil-ities, the absolute or relative profitability of cultivating any crop in various zones can be calculated, since under dry-farming conditions the yield is highly correlated with the intensity of rainfall. Such calculations will also yield cut-off rates below which it is no longer profitable to cultivate a certain crop in a given zone.

19

20 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

73. The probability distribution of rainfall conditions provides an important basis for long-term production planning in that it allows for calculating the long-term benefits that would accrue from alternative uses of lands. An important example to be investigated concerns the use of arid and marginal lands as grazing lands or for cereal cropping.

74. The intensity of early rainfalls (October-December) has a considerable effect on the farmer's decision to sow or not to sow. Although statistical evidence is lacking, it is widely acknowledged that there are large year-to-year fluctuations in the wheat area sown. Presumably, these fluctuations reflect farmers1 percep-tions conditioned by early rainfalls. The season's overall intensity and distri-bution would provide the test for the soundness of early decisions. Thus, further rainfall developments may demonstrate that the decision not to sow was warranted; alternatively, it may prove that the decision was wrong. Table 13 shows the per cent cases of potential warranted and wrong decisions of sowing based on early rainfall conditions.

75· Very poor or poor early rainfall occurs in 33 per cent of cases, but only in 8.6 per cent cases the total rainfall is average or above. Another type of wrong decision would be in the cases where early rainfall is average (35 per cent cases) but where total rainfall actually turns out very poor or poor ( 8 per cent cases). Regarding the first type of wrong decision, it is pointed out that not all farmers would abstain from sowing. Exactly how many would it is impossible to predict. The cost to the farmer of not sowing on the basis of very poor or poor early rain-fall would be the difference between the value of probable production and the cost of the seeds and agricultural operations. It is emphasized here that in years of very poor and poor early rainfall but average or better total rainfall, yields are probably below average. However, production would be much below what could be expected because of the compounding negative effect of the decision of a number of farmers not to sow. In the case of average early rainfall but poor or very poor total rainfall, opposite forces would come into play: yields would probably be below average, but the fact that the large majority of farmers did sow would have a positive effect on the total output.

The decision to fertilize

76. Fertilization becomes meaningful only in secure areas that receive a minimum of 300 mm. rainfall. In the countries studied, the zones receiving 300-500 mm. rainfall (semi-arid) comprise the most important wheat growing areas. In Jordan this area totals around 1,7 million dunums and a two to three year rotation is generally followed. In an average year the size of the wheat area in this ecological region is around 700 000 dunums. An indication of the average fertilizer-response matrix in such areas is given in Table 14.

77. Given the assumptions in Table 14,total wheat production of this zone in an average rainfall year would be around 75 000 tons. As an indication, a shift in fertilization strategy whereby 70 per cent and 30 per cent of the zone receive average and hi^i fertilizers respectively would yield an incremental wheat output of the order of 15 400 tons or an increase of 21 per cent. However, this simple arithmetic does not take into account the cost of fertilization and the probabili-ties of the different rainfall variants.

78. One may add to the above assumption a recent government wheat reserve price of J.D.60 per ton and a domestic chemical compound fertilizer price of J.D. 100 per ton. Another assumption concerns the probabilities of the above three Rainfall variants; they are assumed to be .25, .50 and .25 respectively (cf. Table 12). Given this additional information, it is possible to compute the margin contribu-tion over fertilizer cost corresponding to each cell in the above matrix.

Production Decisions Under Rain-fed Conditions 21

A probability payoff matrix can then be obtained using the respective probabilities in conjunction with the relevant margin contributions. The results are g.ven in Table 15.

79. As demonstrated, fertilization gives higher pay-offs in all cases considered. However, differential pay-offs vary markedly. Average fertilization shows a slim margin in poor rainfall conditions. The margin could well be wiped out by higher labour costs associated with fertilization. In contrast, the margins differ significantly in average and good years, where hi^i fertilization gives around 60 per cent more contribution than in years with no fertilization.

Actual and foregone output

80. In a season characterized by poor early rainfall, some farmers will decide not to sow and others will not fertilize. Suppose that the area sown drops to 60 per cent and the proportion of the area not fertilized falls to 65 per cent, the results of these decisions can be summed up in the following simple statement:

ACTUAL (XJTFUT FOREGONE OUTPUT

Area sown 420 000 dunums (60$ of 700 000 dunums)

7OO 000 dunums

Area not fertilized (65$ of sown area)

273 000 ·■

Area with average fertili-zation 147 000 "

Output: of unfertilized area 21 84Ο tons

of fertilized area 17 640 "

Total output in initially perceived poor season, but actually turning out average season: 39 4§0 tons

Area which could have been sown

Area not fertilized(4($) 280 000

Area with average 350 000 fertilization(50$)

Area with hi^i 70 000 fertilization(lO^)

Combined output of all areas in an average season at the yield rates in Table 14: 74 900 tons

Source: calculated by ECWA on the basis of Table 14.

81. Thus, in a season which starts with poor early rainfall but turns out to be an average season by virtue of good subsequent rainfalls, the cost to the nation of foregone output would amount to 35 420 tons or a loss of 47 per cent of foregone output. In monetary terms, this amounts to a loss of U.S.$6 million, (at U.S.$170 per ton).

Policy implications

82. The foregoing analysis points to the crucial role of governments in guiding farmers1 decisions with regard to production under rainfed conditions. It underlines the urgent need for efficient production planning. This could be achieved through formulating and implementing comprehensive crop production develop-ment programmes, as well as a declared wheat policy. The basic policy issue is now to reduce the adverse effects of uncertainty. Even though dryland farmers may make a good profit through improved practices, they stand to lose their investment in any given year because of total crop failure due to drought. There-fore rise-prone dryland farmers require an additional financial incentive. Dry-land farmers should be able to obtain a value: cost ratio of 3 or 2 as a minimum,

22 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

TABLE 12: PROBABILITY OP RAINFALL LEVELS IN DIFFERENT ZONES IN EAST JORDAN

Level of rainfall Arid zone

(Average 150 mm) Marginal zone

(Average 300 mm) Semi-arid zone (Average 400 mm)

50 -100 -

150 -

200 -

25Ο -

300 -

35Ο -

400 -

5OO -

600 +

— 50 mm

99 mm

149 mm

199 mm

249 mm

299 mm

349 mm

399 mm

499 mm

599 mm

mm

.02

.14

.31

• 31

.19

.03

) .02

,14

.15

.26

.26

.14

.03

.02

.08

.15

.25

.25

.15

.10

TOTAL 100 100 100

TABLE 13: JOINT PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF EARLY RAINFALL AND TOTAL RAINFALL IN JORDAN

k Total Xrainf all

EarlyV. rainfalrs.

Very poor (0-19mm)

Poor ! (20-49mm)

Average (50-109mm)

Hi^i j (110-149mm)

Very higgi (150mm.+)

TOTAL

Very poor (0-99mm)

.063

.038

.008

:

.109

Poor (lOO-249mm)

.039

.072

.085 |

.017

.007

.220

Average (250-449mm)

1

! .017 'I

1

.055

.183

.107

.055

.417

High (450-599mm)

.002

.004

.062

.049

.057

.174

Very hi$i (600 + mm)

-

.002

.012

.026

.040

.080

TOTAL

.121

.171

.350

.199

.159

1.000

Source: (for Tables 12 and 13) ECWA A Pilot Study on Food Security Planning (A Case Study of Wheat in Jordan), prepared by J.B.Simaika, Consultant, Amman March 1977, pp.9-12.

Production Decisions Under Rain-fed Conditions 23

either through subsidizing crops or inputs (or both). Moreoverf in years of total crop failure, farmers have to be given a guarantee that they will not lose their investment or, at least, that the settlement of short-term loans will be postponed. The timely distribution of seeds and fertilizers in adequate quanti-ties and at reasonable prices is also important. The distribution of inputs is closely connected with the provision of short-term credit facilities which should allow farmers to meet costs of fertilizers, seeds, etc. Most appropriate is to tie the credit facilities to the provision of inputs. It should be added that great effort is needed to make credit facilities easily accessible to dryland farmers.

TABLE 14: FERTILIZER-RESPONSE MATRIX FOR WHEAT IN THE 300-500mm RAINFALL ZONE IN JORDAN (INDICATIVE YIELDS IN KGS. PER DUNUM)

τΓ^ΓΤϊΤ^-··^ Rainfall Fert il iza=>-^^^ tion rate ^ " " ^ - ^ ^ ^

None (40$ of zone)

Average - 10kg. compound (5<$ of zone)

Hi φ - 15kg. compound (10$ of zone)

Below average (25Ο mm)

50

80

120

Average (400mm)

80

120

150

Above average (5OO mm)

100

HO

200

Source: ECWA, on the basis of information obtained from national sources

TABLE 15: A PROBABILITY PAYOFF MATRIX OF CONTRIBUTIONS OVER FERTILIZER COST FOR WHEAT IN THE 300-500mm. RAIN-FALL ZONE IN JORDAN (j.D.PER DUNUM)

Π ^ - ^ ^ ^ Rainfall Fert il izat ion^^—-^^^

No fertilization

I Average fertilization

Hi$i fertilization

Below average (probability: Ο.25)

0 750

0 950

1 425

Average (probability:0.50)

2 400

3 100

3 750

Above average (probability:0.25)

1 500 I

1 850

2 625

Source: Calculated by ECWA on the basis of Tables 13 and 14.

Chapter 5

Agronomic Practices and the Adaptation of Technology

83. Apart from raising cropping intensity on good rain-fed lands, there are several limitations on horizontal expansion for increasing food production in the short-term. Hence y agronomic improvements and the adoption of new technology assume great importance. Thus, this chapter will attempt to pinpoint areas which require immediate and adequate support with a view to making a quick impact on food pro-duction. Weed control, early sowing and proper fertilizer application could sub-stantially raise yields and they are particularly attractive due to hi^i-benefit cost ratios in most cases. With regard to rain-fed agriculture, it is well known that the major constraint on yields is adequate moisture availability to growing plants. The problem of conserving soil moisture deserves higi priority, but so far little has been done. It is expected that the use of improved and refined soil moisture management practices will not make a significant contribution to higher yields during the coming five years.

84. Until the present, effort s to raise production through agronomic improvements and adoption of cultural practices have been concentrated mainly on state farms and production co-operatives. Despite generous allocations of inputs, only limited results have emerged mainly due to lack of adequate production incentives. So far no concrete steps have been contemplated for raising productivity on private farms, which,in the countries studied,constitute the large majority.

Level of mechanization and use of modern inputs

85. The level of mechanization adopted and the intensity of modern inputs used in agricultural production are determined by the availability of land, capital, skilled workers, entrepreneurship and the stage of economic development in the country. The scarcity of one or more of the production factors provides a base for selective approach to mechanization and the use of modern inputs. The selective approach aims at mechanizing only certain farming operations and promoting the use of specific kinds of modern inputs in the ligit of priorities set forth by policy makers. The scope for a selective approach is greater during the early stages of economic development since the whole range of farming activities needs to be modernized. Moreover, during the early and intermediate stages of economic devel-opment the selective approach should be used more widely in order to avoid pro-longed ultra-sectoral and inter-sectoral disequilibria and with a view to bringing about short-term adjustments consistent with long-term economic policies.

Äich of this chapter refers only to Iraq and Syrian A.R. ,but it is equally applicable to the other countries of the region.

25

26 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

86· Differences in resource endowment and the level of development achieved dictate the adoption of different policy measures "by the various countries of the region in "bringing about the necessary adjustment in resource allocation. For instance, in Jordan the limited per capita agricultural resources dictate the adoption of a policy of intensive land use. However, due to a shortage of capital and skilled workers, implementation of the recommended levels of modern inputs and advanced farming practices have been achieved on a limited scale only. As a result of increases in total population and per capita income, the food gap has markedly increased in recent years. To tackle this problem, it is necessary to adopt a policy aiming at a systematic and gradual application of the relative approach to mechanization and the use of modern inputs in agricultural production. The adequacy of existing institutions and infra-structural facilities would determine the capacity of the agricultural sector to absorb new technology.

87. Both Iraq and Syrian A.R. are endeavouring to achieve a high level of mechanization daring a relatively short period. Although both countries have great potential for agricultural development, the prevailing conditions are not conducive to promoting an accelerated high level of mechanization and intensive use of modern inputs.

88. The large capital investment made in non-agricultural sectors has encouraged an unprecedented rural exodus during the past years. This led to efforts to bring about full mechanization, reflected in the kind and number of farm machinery imported in the recent past. However, unless the absorptive capacity of the agri-cultural sector is improved, importing large numbers of farm machinery and other implements will not lead to full mechanization as such. The rate at which mechan-ization is introduced and the use of promoted modern inputs should be coordinated with improvement in the abosrptive capacity of the agricultural sector.

89. Yemen A.R· and Yemen P.D.R. are thriving on a low and near subsistence level of development. Both countries have limited natural resources and face an extreme shortage of skilled workers and capital. Clearly, a labour-intensive strategy making full use of available land and water resources should be pursued. The pay-off of a well-balanced programme could be very rewarding since almost no modern inputs are used at present. Initially, action should aim at greatly increasing the efficiency of agricultural operations without affecting employment (mechaniza-tion of selected sowing and harvesting operations) and boosting land productivity (use of selected modern inputs in pilot areas).

Hi^i-yi elding varieties

90. Efforts to introduce hi^i-yielding varieties in the group of six countries haw "been at best a mixed success. The promotion of hi -yielding varieties of wheat in Iraq and the Syrian A.R. started in the late sixties but was not contin-ued as planned« In both countries the use of improved wheat seeds never reached a take-off stage leading to widespread adoption. At present the use of improved seeds in both countries covers only a small proportion of the irrigated and higji rainfall areas, indicating an urgent need for a priority wheat promotion project using a package of inputs·

91 · The introduction of genetically hi^i-yielding varieties is a basic step to-wards increased efficiency of food production. Indeed, experience from all over the world reveals that it is not wise to introduce and intensify the use of inputs or improved practices if the local varieties are genetically poor and their po-tential response to improved inputs is low· This point is demonstrated by an example from Iraq as shown in Table 16.

Agronomie Practices 27

92. The major problem of intensified use of hi$i-yielding varieties concerns multiplication and particularly distribution. A renewed and vigorous effort is needed therefore, to propogate the growing of hi^i-yielding varieties wherever conditions permit· The action should be undertaken as part of a comprehensive crop production development programme.

Fertilizer use

93. A preliminary observation pertains to the fact that the role of chemical fertilizers has been well demonstrated in several experiments carried out in fields in the region, but the results of such experiments are not diffused be-cause of an apparent absence of generalized field demonstrations at the farmers1

level. At present fertilizers are mainly used on irrigated lands. Table 17 compares fertilizer use per unit of cropped irrigated area in Iraq and Syrian A.R.

94. As shown, chemical fertilizer use on irrigated land does meet the recommended rate of 120 kg. N per hectare. Increased application of nitrogen and phosphorous could double or even triple wheat yields on irrigated lands. Heavy dressings of nitrogen to sugarbeet result in high yields, but reduce sugar content. In Lebanon two to three times the recommended rates were applied to obtain yields as high as 50 tons per hectare. In Iraq and Syrian A.R. yields of up to 40 tons per hectare could be achieved through fertilizer application. Another good illustration of the contribution of chemical fertilizers to high yields is the 1967 trials con-ducted in three Mohofazats in Iraq where a compound HP fertilizer was added to the Amber Y rice varieties in farmers1 fields. Results showed more than a 50 P61* cent increase in yields as shown in Table 18.

95. In areas of good rainfall where the incidence of drought is smaller (at least an average of 500mm. rainfall), heavy fertilizer dressings can be safely recom-mended. Dressings of 150-180 kg. N and 100kg. P2°s

f Γθ81ι1^ΐη& in ne* yield gains over one metric ton per hectare, assure maximum -* profits, even at the pre-vailing high prices of fertilizer.

96. In the lower rainfall zone (300-500mm.), there is evidence from Syrian A.R. (Ezraa station, a dry area with 310mm. rainfall) that fertilizer dressings of 40 kg.N and 40 kg. P 0 per hectare yield average increases of 500 kg. of wheat per hectare. This ^ would, in an average year, mean an incremental output of 5OO 000 tons of grain. Even with a one-year crop failure in ten, such dressings would be profitable.

97· Moreover, due to the marked residual effect of P?0 on the region's soils, initial heavy dressings of P 0 could be reduced to -* about 30 kg. per hectare the cost of which is small. ^ Under a wheat-vetch (lentils) rotation, the most economic way would be to add 50 kg. PpO to the vetch forage only (in the absence of P20_ dressings, the yield of -> vetch forage is reduced to 25-30 per cent of -* normal yield) and let the wheat crop benefit from the residual effect. The application of 50 to 60 kg. of N to wheat would yield more than 50 per cent of the yield increase brou^it about by 150-l80kg. of N. Thus, in the low rainfall zone under a wheat-vetch forage rotation, given two crop failures in ten, a good margin of profit could still be secured.

1/ Amber is a local rice variety, not considered hi^i-yielding but favoured for its cooking quality. The high-yielding IR-8 variety, more responsive to fertilizers and hence, much superior in yield, failed to replace the local Amber variety because of consumer preference.

28 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

98. A final remark with regard to fertilizer use pertains to the necessity of launching hi$1 priority fertilizer promotion and demonstration programmes. Areas and crops with high potential (e.g. wheat and sugarbeet) need to be selected for the purpose of making a quick and tangible impact. Also, much more effort is required to promote the use of manure coming from intensive livestock operations.

Weed control

99· An extremely serious problem with regard to crop production efficiency in the region is weed infestation. The problem could be largely solved in the short-term. Chemical control methods are little used in the region and these may not be appropriate as they could have dangerous side-effects when not used properly. However, improved field management practices could solve the problem to a con-siderable extent.

100. Weed infestation of wheat and other cereals is often severe and reduces yields to 70 per cent of normal. Control is also extremely important for sugarbeet and groundnuts as weeds over large areas reduce yields to 20-25 per cent of normal levels. The practice of pre-sowing irrigation of the land has generally proved to be successful in controlling weeds. It is a simple but critical management practice that is necessary during seedbed preparation. It consists of land irrigation to help germinate the weed seeds in the upper soil surface and later destroy them by one run of a disc-harrow. Experience in Iraq reveals that pre-sowing irrigation, together with other management practices has a significant effect on reducing the weed population as can be seen from Table 19.

101. The use of herbicides is here given low priority, as it requires advanced skills which traditional farmers in the region do not possess. However, it may be successfully applied on large state farms (e.g. for oilseed crops).

102. The intensification of agricultural production on irrigated and good rain-fed lands will also have beneficial effects on reducing the weed population. Leaving a part of the land fallow for an entire season allows annual weeds to complete their life cycle and reproduce seeds that contaminate the land. A good example is the dramatic situation of the Mesopotamia!! Plain in Iraq, where the incidence of weeds has built up to a very hi$i rate, because half the available land is annually fallowed without any ploughing or harrowing. Generally, increased cropping intensity would lead to the introduction of annual fodder crops (e.g. berseem as a forage crop is being cut 4-5 times during the season), as well as more row crops such as sugarbeet, cotton and vegetables for which weeding will reduce the weed population and hence, increase yields.

Time of sowing, harvesting and other agronomic operations

103· Early sowing of rainfed wheat usually ensures higher yields than late sowing. However, farmers generally prefer the latter in order to avoid the risks of re-sowing. Autumn corn planting in Iraq has a marginal sowing period not exceeding 15 days ( 1—15 July)· Earlier sowing may lead to seed polination failure from high temperatures, whereas late sowing may delay seed maturity and make mechanical harvesting difficult due to the start of the rainy season. Soybeans planting is problematic with regard to establishing good germination due to salinity and climatic conditions. Planting has to take place before the third week of June in order to avoid the danger that seeds lose their viability. Also in Iraq, sugar-beet are at present planted either too early (September) resulting in a high bolting percentage, or too late (December—February) resulting in a 50 per cent yield reduction. Many farmers are aware of the proper sowing time but they are hindered by management and input distribution problems and by competition from wheat sowing, the harvesting of vegetables and cotton, and by water shortage due to absence of efficient irrigation supply systems. The harvesting of sugarbeet

Agronomie Practices 29

TABLE 16: RECENT RESULTS OF' YIELD PERFORMANCE FOR SELECTED FIELD CROPS GROWN AT TWO LEVELS OF TECHNOLOGY - GREATER MUSAYIB PROJECT, IRAQ

Crops and Varieties

Wheat

(a) Local variety (b; Mexipak

Sorghum grain

(a) Local variety (b) Bravis (hybrid)

Sorghum forage

(a) Local variety (b) NK 376 (hybrid)

Coarse grain

(a) Local (loltin) (b) ASC (hybrid)

Yield

Low level of technology

100 not estimated

100 not estimated

100 not estimated

100 not estimated

Index

High level of technology

337 600

357 1 185

200 650

416 1 333

Source: Crop Production Investigations in the Greater Musayib Project Area, FAO/UNDP Project, Ba#idadt 1973

TABLE 17: THE USE OF NITROGEN AND PHOSPHORUS FERTILIZERS PER UNIT OF IRRIGATED CROPPED AREA IN IRAQ AND SYRIAN A.R. 1968 - 1974 (KGS. OF N AND P2 05 PER HA.)

Year

1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974

Nitrogen

Iraq

2.8 3.6 4.5 5.3 5-9 6.6 11.1

Syrian A.R.

35-4 39.5 44.7 54.6 51.4 53.1 53.2

Phosphorous |

Iraq

1.1 1.0 1.7 1.7 2.5 2.9 6.7

Syrian A.R.

11.5 12.2 17.3 26.2 26.9 24.Ο 12.0

Source: Compiled from data of the Food and Agriculture Organization

TABLE 18: FERTILIZER EXPERIMENTS WITH AMBER RICE VARIETY IN IRAQ, 1967 (YIELD IN M.T. PER HA. )

Mohafazat

Diwaniya Hilla Kut

Number of demonst rat ions

17 34 19

Avera,

Fertilized

4 028 3 892 3 228

ge yield

Unfertilized I

2 744 I 2 668 2 152

Source: ECWA, on the basis of information obtained from national sources.

30 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

in May-June takes place under very hi^i temperatures and necessitates prompt and efficient factory deliveries to avoid serious losses which may be of the order of 2-3kg. per ton per day· These problems could be solved largely by the accelerated introduction of selective mechanization of farming operations which would ensure performing agricultural operations at the proper time.

104· The method of sowing is another point to be underlined. In some special cases, mechanized sowing (with seed drill) results in a direct yield gain because of superiority in performance when compared with manual operations. For instance, mechanized sowing experiments in Traq resulted in a 15 per cent higher yield of wheat, safflower and linseed. The superiority of the seed drill is attributed to the better uniformity of seed distribution at the proper sowing rate, the complete control of sowing depth and covering of the seeds, and the uniform distribution and depth placement of fertilizers. However, for mechanized sowing to be success-ful, it is essential that land preparation is done properly. On irrigated land there should be proper soil pulverization using a disc harrow and land smoothing using a land smoother or land plane. Mechanized sowing (or harvesting) can also increase the yield directly, particularly in the case of performing several agri-cultural operations at the proper time.

IO5. A final observation refers to the plant population and seeding rate in irrigated areas, where low seeding rates are used for cereals and grain crops and wide spacing for row crops. Lacking chemical fertilizers, farmers have observed that a low plant population per unit area will give individual plants a better chance for exploiting soil nutrients from a larger volume of the root zone. In the traditional thinking of farmers, the concept of yield per area unit of seeds sown has not yet penetrated. Farmers will evaluate success or failure by calcu-lating the number of wheat sacks harvested from broadcasting one sack of seeds.

106· The introduction of modern irrigated agriculture generates a new set of com-pletely different standards. At first the basic issue should be to maximize pro-duction per unit of land and, in a more advanced stage, per unit of water. All inputs and practices should be geared towards this target. The introduction of high-yielding varieties alone does not suffice; it needs to be supplemented by fertilizers application and proper management. For example, the recommended seed rate for the local Ajeeba wheat variety in Iraq is about 80 kg«/ha. The introduc-tion of Mexipak revealed that higher rates of seeding require the application of hi^ier doses of nitrogen fertilizers, as shown in Table 20.

TABLE 19: RECENT RESULTS FROM WEED CONTROL EXPERIMENTS IN WHEAT FIELDS AT THE GREATER MUSAYIB PROJECT, IRAQ

Treatment

Ho treatment or control Best available chemical herbicide Pre-sowing i rr igat ion of crops

Relative y i e l d from Mexipak (index)

100 150 175 J

TABLE 20: YIELD OF MEXIPAK WHEAT AS INFLUENCED BY SEEDING RATES AND NITROGEN APPLICATION, IRAQ, 1973 - 1974 (KGS. PER HA.)

Seeding rates

50 80

110 140 170

Nitrogen appl icat ion 0

2 371 2 631 2 958 2 983 2 738

120

3 435 3 948 4 252 4 879 4 509

200

3 858 4 646 4 805 | 5 516 ; 5 061

Source: (Tables 19 and 20) Table 16 op-cit»

Chapter 6

Possibilities for Increasing Livestock Production

107· Like other regions, livestock development in the group of six countries has invariably lagged "behind crop production. The technical and institutional con-straints on livestock development are particularly difficult and require long-term development strategies such as new "breeding programmes, range management and con-servation plans, and other strategies involving heavy capital outlays. Many of these and other considerations are beyond the scope of this study which focuses only on short-term possibilities for increasing food production. Prom both the technical and institutional viewpoints such possibilities relate primarily to intensive systems of production since extensive systems inherently involve long-term considerations.

Technical considerations

108. The prevailing intensive and semi-intensive livestock production systems are characterized by an overdependence upon imported feedstuffs, particularly in the form of concentrates. Concentrates often contribute 75-80 ΡΘΓ cent of ration (12 months per year) in dairying and in sheep production as much as 50 per cent of ration (four months per year). Except for cottonseed cake in Syrian A.R. only small quantities are produced by the countries of the region. In general, the region depends heavily on imported feedstuffs to supply the requirements of inten-sive production systems. The fact that 75-80 per cent of the total production costs are feed costs leaves the viability of the domestic livestock industry largely dependent on feed availability and prices on foreign markets. Obviously, this generalization does not apply to extensive production systems which depend largely on grazing and on certain crop residues.

109· Prices of imported concentrates have recently surged to prohibitive levels. In Lebanon and Jordan this had particularly negative effects on livestock opera-tions· For instance, 1975 concentrate prices averaged 60 fils per kg., whereas roughages remained at 32 fils per kg. At these prices and within the context of a typical ration (i.e. 10-12 kg. of concentrates and 3 kg. of roughages per cow per day), the medium-sized dairy farmer barely breaks even.V Therefore, unless efforts are directed towards increasing the supplies of domestically produced roughages, no worthwhile increase of reasonably priced milk and meat can occur.

7 R. D. Young, Perspectives on development of livestock production in Jordan, PAO Consultant report JOR/73/Ö08, March 1976

31

32 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

110. Hi^aest priority should be given to arrest the rapid decline in the supply of domestic roughages and to boost local feed production· For instancef one of the principal reasons for a shortage of roughage is the introduction of machine harvesting. Thus, before the introduction of grain harvest equipment in Jordan and Lebanon, there were large surpluses of top quality Tibben. These are now dis-appearing and roughages are in short supply on the market. Applied research on suitable methods to recover the straw from the harvesting machines is a higji priority. This case also provides an important justification for selective mechanization.

111. Regarding the development of domestic feed resources, two broad avenues are open. The first concerns forage crops suitable for harvesting as greenfeed. Greenfeed from a series of perennial forage crops (e.g. alfalfa) is chiefly to be earmarked to the large-scale dairy industry. Dairy cows require a continuous flow of greenfeed. Fodder conservation programmes of a relatively long-term nature are important if dairying integrated with vegetable production is to be a sig-nificant feature of agricultural development in the countries studied.

112. The second important avenue is the development of quick-growing forage crops suitable for hay production in irrigated and rainfed zones. This strategy is particularly important for intensive systems of sheep production. In the short run, there are some significant possibilities in good drylands as evidenced from the recent successful experience in the extreme north-east of Syrian A.R. To replace wheat-fallow, wheat-vetch rotation is being successfully propogated in that area (400-500 mm, average rainfall). In trials it was found that vetch forage yields in that region are very hi^i, with substantial yields in the lower rainfall areas. Under proper management, an average yield of 5-6 tons of vetch hay per ha., with a maximum of 10 tons per ha., is possible. Grown on a small scale in 1973/74f vetch hay production expanded to 23 000 ha. in 1974/75 (20 000 ha. on state farms and 3 000 ha. on private and cooperative farms). For 1975/76 it was planned to grow 100 000 ha. of vetch hay in the Gezirah, of which 70 tons on private and cooperative farms. In just two or three years a major breakthrough has been achieved in that zone. The forage legume represents a complete net benefit and the wheat crop remains unaffected.

113. Generalization of the wheat - vetch rotation in the Gezirah and other parts of Syrian A.R. with focus on private farms could cover an estimated potential of nearly one million ha. of good rainfed lands and affect very favourably wheat and livestock production. The same important potential exists in the vast rain-fed areas in norther Iraq and more limited possibilities exist in Jordan and Lebanon. In Lebanon, trials have been completed and varieties selected for propogation. Growing on a wheat - vetch rotation has started on a limited scale in the Northern Bikaa-Hermel-ElKaa area. A major breakthrough in forage production on good rain-fed lands would lead to an important net addition to the value added in agri-culture and import substitution. In addition, on the smaller family farms, net additions in income would be secured and the seasonal unemployment problem would disappear as mixed farming develops. On large state farms mechanization would reduce costs and raise labour efficiency.

114# The most significant promise for short-term development of forage crops suitable for hay production would be in irrigated areas. Ironically, production of forage annuals to be used as greenfeed (e.g. forage maize) has seldom developed as a large industry in the irrigated areas of the region. Typically, the sheep industry would have sharply fluctuating feed requirements from irrigated agri-culture. In the case of good winter and spring rains on the range, no greenfeed maize would be required by the sheep industry. Conversely, in poor rainfall years large quantities of greenfeed maize would be required.

Possibilities for Increasing Livestock Production 33

115. The obvious solution to this problem is to encourage the growing of irrigated forage crops which can be used either as greenfeed or hay· In good years such crops would be stored as hay and in adverse years they would be eaten as greenfeed. Such a strategy would enable farmers to develop a regular forage production programme. Technically there should be little difficulty in implemen-ting this strategy. However, in the short-term there is a severe problem of intercrop competition and economic substitution. The high priority accorded to sugar production and livestock development in general would lead to severe com-petition for available irrigated lands, particularly in autumn and winter, with traditional crops such as irrigated HYV wheat, rice in Iraq, cotton and vegetables. Moreover, very little has been achieved with regard to determining optimal crop-ping patterns for specific zones and locations.

116. However, during the late spring/early summer there is generally much irrigated land lying fallow coupled with the availability of some surplus irrigation water. Traditional forage crops recommended for sowing at this time of the year would be unsuitable for hay. Therefore, more suitable forage crops are needed to solve this particular problem which could lead to a whole new range of possibilities for increasing livestock production.

Feed storage and distribution

117· In several countries of the group studied, all hand feeding of sheep usually ceases in late winter since good feed would be generally available on the range. This is true only in good or normal rainfall seasons; but the situation is totally different in bad years. Typically there would be little or no feed on the range by late winter and farmers1 supplies of stored feed would be nearly exhausted. The situation is worsened due to the depletion of their cash reserves, the immaturity of their lambs and the drop in milk supply from ewes because of lack of feed.

118. When confronted with these problems, some farmers would purchase feed from merchants on costly credit and would subsequently settle their debts as soon as the lambs could be sold. Other farmers would sell their lambs early plus a sub-stantial proportion of their ewes in order to purchase sufficient feed to carry the balance of the flock on drought rations until the next rainy season. In all cases, the farmers suffer severe hardships and incur huge financial losses while sheep and feed merchants make above normal profits.

119. The first step in breaking this vicious circle is to obtain large-scale acceptance of forage crops suitable for hay. This cannot be achieved without some form of price guarantees coupled with binding contracts to supply and take delivery of hay crops. For instance, in Syrian A.R. an incentive price for vetch hay has been fixed and farmers1 supplies can be marketed through the government owned General Fodder Institution. Under prevailing farming and distributive structures no farmer would want to pay cash for forage crops in a good rainfall year. Conversely, when the rains fail to come at the proper time, feed would be relatively expensive.

120. Syrian A.R. experience illustrates developments which are easily trans-ferable to other countries of the region, particularly concerning comprehensive integrated development of feed storage and distribution with the livestock sector and, more specifically, sheep production. Feed storage and distribution take place through the monopoly of the General Fodder Institution, which controls a nationwide network of feed stores owned by various range and fattening coopera-tives as well as dairy cooperatives.

34 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

121· An alternative way to organize the feed market is through establishing feed cooperatives. They would purchase and store feed during times of plenty, to fill a need which will inevitably arise at a later date. The determination of feed prices should not be a serious problem. For instance, minimum prices for feed-stuffs can be calculated from the basic price of barley, as in Syrian A.R., where this system of feed pricing seems to work reasonably satisfactorily for all parties.

122. In assuming the role of existing feed merchants, feed cooperatives would need to plan and carry out two important programmes: feed storage and feed dis-tribution. Such programmes need careful consideration in order to protect the interests of smaller livestock producers. Peed storage has important technical and logistic aspects which have a direct bearing on livestock production. Particular attention should be given to the storage of roughages since its tech-nology in the countries studied has lagged significantly behind the storage of concentrates.

123· One storage problem is represented by forage crops which are unsuitable for hay production, they must either be eaten as greenfeed or made into silage. For mixed farming involving the integration of animal and crop production, forage for silage represents an important technology.

124. Silage facilities, however, are generally not suitable for the operation of a feed cooperative. Indeed, hay storage should be the main concern of these co-operatives. Primary consideration should be given to the replacement of tradi-tional methods of hay storage by more advanced technologies which do not involve capital expenditure; thus special hay processing plants would be excluded in this respect. One technology appropriate for large feed cooperatives is that of baling hay into high density bales with an inexpensive mobile pick-up baler or alterna-tively with a stationary baler.

125. Feed distribution is an integral part of a well-conceived feed development programme. Present distribution systems of subsidized feedstuffs have serious defects; they often operate against the best interests of the genuine livestock owner. Livestock numbers are frequently mis-stated to secure feedstuffs which are subsequently resold at black market prices. In administering feed distribution, the cooperatives need to evolve new distribution systems based on livestock re-gistration books. Also, subsidized feedstuffs could be distributed for a limited number of sheep per cooperative member,

Chapter 7

Market Imperfections and Price Distortions

126. This chapter gives a brief review of existing market imperfections and the extent of government intervention. This is followed by an analysis of food pricing policies and their relationship to farm-gate and input prices. Illustrations from the group of six countries are given throughout the analysis.

Market imperfections and administered prices

127. Producer prices in Yemen P.D.R. are set annually by the Agricultural Political Committee primarily on the basis of cost of production studies undertaken by special committees commissioned by the Ministry of Agriculture. Prices are uniform all over the country. Price fixing covers all cereals, fruits and vege-tables, oilseeds and oils. Price fixing also covers imported food commodities com-prising wheat, rice, sugar, tea and ghee all handled through State trade channels. Pood prices in that country are high compared to world markets, reflecting the low productivity of the agricultural sector and the higher costs of inputs and trans-portation. With regard to subsidies and taxes, it is noted that imported wheat and rice are subsidized, and that cereals carry a local tax of 3-4 per cent on gross farm production and a 15 per cent government tax on gross disposable production.

128. Government price policy in Iraq has been favouring urban consumers. However, the introduction of a farm-based price policy is receiving increased attention. The government is attempting to organize food production and distribution by setting prices at acceptable levels for urban consumers and remunerative levels for farmers.

129. Before 1970 government intervention on "the agricultural commodity markets was not significant and prices fluctuated sharply with changing supply-demand conditions. However, important price policy measures have been introduced in recent years. In 1973 a price support programme for agricultural commodities and farm inputs was introduced and a special fund was established for this purpose. In 1974 the Central Price Organization was established and given the authority to fix prices. The Organization analyses the price situation and submits proposals for price changes to the Higher Committee for Prices which, in turn, submits the case to the Council for Trade Regulations. The latter determines farm prices for wheat, barley and rice, taking into account the latest harvest estimates and cost of production. Prices are usually announced in May just before the harvest season.

130 A monopoly of foreign and domestic grain trading has been vested with the Iraqi Grain Board since 1973. By taking over grain trading, the government ended

35

36 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

the harmful practice of advance selling of grain by farmers· Except for domestic requirements, the output of wheat, rice and barley is delivered to buying points in each of the 16 Mohafazat. Due to significant improvements in trucking facili-ties, transport of the grains is no longer a major problem. In 1974f a dry year, the Grain Board purchased some 600 000 tons of wheat, about 50 Per cent of pro-duction and 34 000 tons of barley, only a fraction of the whole output as farmers kept large quantities for their own use, for seeds and for sale at production point. As of 1976, the Grain Board planned the centralized marketing of maize, sesame, linseed, lentils, millets, green gram, oats, cotton and cottonseed.

131· Basic food products and farm inputs in Iraq are heavily subsidized at a range varying from 30-75 Per cent of market prices. Subsidies are granted for improved seeds, fertilizers^ and compound feeds (30 per cent) for plant protection and the use of combine harvesters (50 per cent) and for other combine machinery use (75 Per cent). The granting of pecuniary aid to introduce or boost the pro-duction of certain crops is highly appreciated by farmers. Sugarbeet growers receive two Dinars per dunum of sugarbeet planted and also free fertilizers and seeds.

132. Government intervention in Jordan is of a more limited scope. Administered prices are set by a Joint Committee of the two Ministries - Agriculture^and Supply and Economy. The government-fixed farm price for wheat only serves as a guaran-teed minimum price. In effect, only a small proportion of total domestic supply is delivered to government stores at the guaranteed price. The bulk of output is sold directly by farmers through private marketing channels. The Ministry of Supply controls and determines the prices of main food it ems, including flour. Sugar prices are subsidized while rice and imported meat are not subsidized but are sold at prices reflecting State import prices.

1 33# Lebanon also provides an illustration of limited government intervention. On the basis of recommendations made by a committee representing various minis-tries, the Minister of National Economy fixes annually guaranteed minimum prices for major cereals; sugarbeet and sunflowerseed. Decisions made are on the basis of cost of production and prices in neighbouring countries. Prices are usually announced shortly before harvesting. The Cereals and Sugarbeet Office, in com-petition with private traders, buys the above crops from a number of centrally located buying points. Normally, about 50 per cent of the wheat crop is delivered to government stores. Foreign trade in cereals and sugar is handled exclusively through the Cereals and Sugarbeet Office, which also operates the grain silos and is in charge of the distribution of wheat flour.

134. In Syrian A.R. intervention is mainly through the Ministry of Supply and the Cereals and Flour Agency, and relates to marketing and pricing of food commodities. Pricing policy has generally favoured urban consumers. Recently the government has given increasing attention to incentive farm-gate pricing in order to beat the production of basic foodstuffs. Fixed prices often include a net profit margin as hi^i as 40 per cent over the average cost of production.

135. Prices are fixed by the Ministerial Committee for Economic Affairs, which acts upon a recommendation from a Joint Committee of ministerial representatives after detailed studies carried out by the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Supply. The basis for price-fixing is the cost of production, but the price levels in neighbouring countries are also taken into account. The use of incen-tive prices to promote crop production is well illustrated by vetch-hay produc-tion which was non-existent a few years ago. The incentive price of LS 200 per ton has been publicised in 1975? leaving a very profitable LS 35 per ton net gain. This price will be gradually decreased once farmers have become convinced of the necessity to use hay for fattening operations. In 1975 around 100 000 tons were bought. Shortly, an incentive price will be publicised for soybeans with a view to cutting down the increasing and costly imports of that commodity.

Market Imperfections and Price Distortions 37

TABLE 21: ANNUAL CHANGES IN FOOD AND NCN-FOOD PRICES (PER CENT PER ANNUM)

Irag

all items food

Jordan

all items food

Lebanon

all items food

Syrian A.R.

all items food

196O-I965

• · · • · ·

• · ·

• · ·

• · ·

1.3 2/

1965-1970

3.5 3.1

2.8 V 5.1

2.0 5/

4.2 4.7

1970-1971

3.6 4.2

4.2 6.2

1.6 2.6

4-9 3.8

1971-1972

5.2 5.2

8.2 11.1

4.9 8.7

0.8

1972-1973

4.9 4.9

10.5 18.9

6.0 9.7

20.0 22.1

1973-1974

8.3 11.3

20.0 34.8

11.0 16.7

15.4 15.1

a/ 1967-1970 y 1966-1970 0/ 1962-1965

TABLE 22: EXTENT OF PRICE FIXING AT THE FARM AND RETAIL LEVEL FOR BASIC COMMODITIES IN THE GROUP OF SIX COUNTRIES, 1975

Country

Iraq

Jordan

Lebanon

Syrian A.R.

Yemen A.R.

Yemen PDR

Farm prices

Wheat

fixed price

fixed price

fixed price

fixed price

free

fixed price

Rice

fixed price

-

—

fixed price

-

-

Oilseed crops

free

free

free except sunflower-fixed price

fixed price

free

fixed price

Sugar

free

-

free

fixed price

-

-

Livestock

free

free

free ( négociât ed price)

free

free

free

Consumer prices

Basic a/ commodities

fixed prices

fixed prices

fixed prices

fixed prices

free prices, except breaoj

fixed prices

Source: ECWA, on the basis of information obtained from national sources.

a/ Wheat, rice, bread, vegetable oils, sugar and red meat.

38 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

Food policies and price distortions

136. Food prices in the group of six countries have been increasing at a stag-gering rate. Generally, inflation has affected food prices more significantly than non-food prices, as can be seen from Table 21.

137. With regard to food price policy, the conflicting interests of low food prices for consumers and remunerative farm prices for producers is perhaps the most difficult problem facing governments. Because of low productivity in agriculture and relative inefficiency of marketing systems, governments have resorted to sub-sidization of consumer prices. In certain cases, subsidization went beyond toler-able limits and food products were diverted from human consumption to feeding live-stock (e.g. wheat, bread, apples). Also,in attempting to control prices, resources have often been spread too thinly. It is important to keep under control and closely watch only a restricted number of basic food products of common grade, such as bread, rice, pulses, sugar, vegetable oil, milk and eventually meat,but this should be only a temporary measure until such time as consumption of sub-stitute products (poultry, fish and pulses) has been boosted.

138. The use of incentive pricing policies to stimulate farm production is on a relatively limited scale in the countries studied. With the exception of cereals, incentive farm prices have a limited commodity coverage as illustrated by Table 22.

139· Guaranteed incentive pricing should improve and stabilize farm income. For cereals and oilseeds a two-tier system of price fixing should be considered. It involves the determination of a 'basic' support price before the growing season (to influence farmers' decisions to grow a certain crop) and the upward revision of the support price after harvest. The latter would represent a sort of scarcity subsidy in case of a poor crop.

14Ο· Another prerequisite to arrive at price stability is the availability of sufficient storage capacity to balance-out the violent fluctuations in output and to efficiently programme wheat imports and distribution. It is only in recent years that the building of initial or additional storage capacity has received top priority. A stable wheat market may also spur important changes in cereal mix as the relative importance of barley production could be boosted to meet the important feed demand.

141· The unplanned administration of farm prices has often led to serious price distortions in the countries studied. The problem of price distortions can be largely attributed to the tendency of government intervention being directed at specific products, at specific inputs and also to a failure to adjust prices in line with changing market conditions. Price distortions inhibit the efficient use of resources to the extent that farm prices do not reflect relative scarcities. Another aspect concerns intermarket price distortions. In general, farm prices for wheat and other commodities have remained well below world market prices (except in Yemen P.D.R. where per unit cost of production is excessively high). Moreover, domestic prices lag considerably behind changer in international wheat prices, whereas price increases in production inputs are refelcted immediately. This situation has a negative effect on farm production; it also depresses and limits on-farm investments.

142. There is also need for a policy on relative prices for commodities comprising the farm basket. Such a policy would attempt to maintain appropriate price re-lationships among cereals (food versus feed) and between cereals and other farm products. A relatively better price will have to be paid for sugarbeet, oilseeds,

Market Imperfections and Price Distortions 39

fodder and pulses vis-à-vis wheat. Also, the feed/meat price relationships will have to be watched closely to ensure sufficient profitability to various types of livestock enterprises.

143. Greater attention should also be given to input price policies. Farmers pay relatively high market prices for almost exclusively imported inputs, due mainly to above normal profit margins of distribution agents. Table 23 shows prices of ammonium-sulphate paid by farmers in selected countries in recent years.

144. Higk input prices are not conducive to the adoption of new technologies or improved farming practices. Small farmers are generally not able to benefit from modern inputs at prevailing hi^i prices. Short-term and medium-term credit is scarce and more often than not subject to conditions which small farmers cannot fulfill. They derive little benefit from low interest credit. There is generally a need for an allocative mechanism that promotes both equity and efficiency and so overcomes the important biases associated with the traditional forms of subsidy within prevailing institutional frameworks. One example is to introduce dis-criminatory pricing of irrigation water and to make water rights transferable so that an allocation of rights on grounds of equity need not prevent an efficient allocation of water. Whenever essential, subsidies to agricultural production should be directed to specific high priority programmes or enterprises in line with optimal use of resources.

TABLE 23: PRICES PAID BY FARMERS FOR AMMONIUM-SULPHATE IN SELECTED COUNTRIES, I97O - 74 (U.S.! PER 100 KG. OF PLANT NUTRIENT)

Country

Iraq Jordan Syrian A.R.

I Iran Italy

197Ο

28.0 25.2 29.9 35-2 27.0

1971

28.0 24.1 32.4 29.5 28.2

1972

31.0 25.2 35.6 29.5 29.7

1973

33.8 51.4 54.1 29.5 26.4

1974

21.8 5/ 92.0 64.3 36.3 37.9

Source: FAQ Production Yearbook, 1975f PP- 376-427

a/ net of a 30 per cent subsidy.

Summary and Conclusions of Part I

145. The major producing countries of the ECWA region are a food-def ic i t group with regard to a l l f ive commodities (wheat, r i c e , vegetable o i l s , sugar and red meat). The present food gap i s alarming; the region i s the n i c e s t per capita food importer in the world which const i tutes a grave problem with far-reaching implications. Present d e f i c i t s for sugar and r ice are extremely severe, but also the d e f i c i t s for wheat, o i l s eeds and red meat are of an order which in spec i f i c country s i tuat ions may enta i l dramatic consequences and the present c r i t i c a l s i t u a -t i on i s a compelling reason for the region to vigorously work towards the rapid expansion of domestic food production,

146. The long-term demand outlook poses an unprecedented challenge to food produc-t i o n in the region. Unless production e f for t s are pushed to t h e i r l i m i t s , import dependence may ul t imately reach intolerable l imi t s re f l ec t ing serious s o c i o -economic r i sks .

147. Of more immediate concern i s the medium-term (1980) food pos i t ion . Medium-term food production plans in the region are extremely ambitious, part icularly for sugar, r ice and wheat. The postulated targets for o i l s eeds and red meat are also very high. Granted such conditions of optimism, the precarious s i tuat ion may be only p a r t i a l l y redressed. The food problem in Syrian A.R. could be solved, while in Iraq problems would ease t o a large extent though not on a l l counts. In the other four countries , there would be merely a change in degree, food problems would remain of such magnitude as t o be cause for continuing concern. With regard to crops, the wheat problem could be solved at regional l e v e l , but country s i tuat ions would d i f f er large ly . Production of sugarbeet/cane and r ice would remain geogra-phica l ly concentrated as ecological constraints and resource a v a i l a b i l i t y do not allow t h e i r cu l t iva t ion in several countries studied. Objectively, i t can be sa fe ly s tated that i t would be a remarkable achievement in the medium-term i f any further widening of the regional food gap could be arrested and the process rever-sed for certain commodities, e .g . managing s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y for wheat. Of course, at the country l eve l s i tuat ions could d i f f er markedly.

148. Much of the emphasis on food and agricultural production in the region has been on long-term (structural and i n s t i t u t i o n a l change). This long-term focus was due to the neglect of the short-term growth potential of food production. The analysis conducted in Chapters 3-7 has c l ear ly demonstrated considerable opportunities for rapid increases in food production given the present resource use . Clearly, i t i s not advocated to abandon action that pursues long-term agr i -cultural development; on the contrary, i t should be continued more intens ive ly than

41

42 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

at present and be implemented paral le l with action to rea l ize the short-term growth potential s ince a balance needs to be struck between short-term and long-term act ion. Special e f for ts should be made and adequate resources should be a l located towards the rea l i za t ion of opportunities to increase food production in the short-term. As set out in the study there i s a blend of economic and techni -cal measures that could boost production in the short-term. General application of these measures may trans late i t s e l f into at l eas t obtaining 1980 plan target s . Some important measures to be considered are spel led out below:

1, Although not of a short-term nature, i t i s relevant to point out the need for great ly increased investment a l locat ions t o the agricultural sector . Indeed, the reconsideration of devel-opment strategy i s of utmost importance with a view to breaking up the growing 'dualism1 in the economy and within agriculture (between modern and t r a d i t i o n a l ) . Agriculture needs t o regain i t s l o s t v i a b i l i t y and innovative forces , part icular ly tradi t ional agriculture and with i t the rural areas. The necessary sh i f t in emphasis towards agricultural and rural development needs to be operated through greatly increased investment a l l oca t ions . This new focus would restore development opportunities in rural areas and have a pos i t ive e f fect on widening the absorp-t i v e capacity of that sector , presently ser ious ly restraining the investment.

2, The rainfed lands in the 300 mm. and above ra in fa l l zone offer considerable potent ia l for increased wheat production. A r e -consideration of farmers' production decis ions depends in essence on the reduction of the r i sks factor to minimum l e v e l s . To achieve potential production r e s u l t s , the role of the government i s cruc ia l . Apart from price f i x ing at remunera-t i v e l e v e l s , assured d is tr ibut ion of seeds , f e r t i l i z e r s and marketing o u t l e t s , the introduction of crop insurance to hedge against crop fa i lure s in poor years i s a pre-requis i te for successful development. Indeed, production increases depend t o a large extent on judicious use of f e r t i l i z e r s . Over a number of years a comfortable payoff i s assured but in years of t o t a l crop fa i lure the f inanc ia l ly weak farmers need t o be rescued.

3, The rainfed lands in the 300 mm. and above ra in fa l l zone also hold scope for a major breakthrough in forage (vetch-hay) pro-duction. The replacement of the wheat-fallow system with a wheat-vetch rotat ion would go a long way t o so lv ing the more severe problem confronting l ives tock production, namely feed a v a i l a b i l i t y . On irr igated lands, p o s s i b i l i t i e s for produc-t i o n of forage in l a t e spring/early summer t o be used as green-feed or hay merit serious consideration as they represent con-siderable potent ia l . Production of i rr igated perennial forage crops needs t o be further encouraged. The d i s tr ibut ion of pure-bred dairy cows could be t i e d t o planting a few dunums under a l f a l f a . Concurrent with the development of feed pro-duction, feed storage and dis tr ibut ion need to be developed. Reference i s made here to encouraging these developments in Syrian A.R. Developments in t h i s f i e l d could have a tangible impact on red meat/milk production-

Summary and Conclusions

Particularly on irrigated lands, significant yield improvements can be expected from improved practices, use of modern inputs and mechanization. With a view to avoiding disequilibria harming the well-functioning of the economy, a 'selective approach1 ought to be followed. The elaboration of compre-hensive integrated crop production development programmes which may yield a quick and powerful impact is considered to be a particularly important point. Such programmes are novel to the region and could be implemented for each crop under study. Attention is also drawn to the need for renewed efforts to promote the use of improved seeds and fertilizers. Simple improved practices are very rewarding and all means should be used to promote their general adoption (pre-sowing irrigation for weed control, row planting, weeding of row crops, time of sowing, seed rate, etc.). A hi^i priority and resourceful programme of demonstration in farmers1 fields could have a significant effect in promoting use of fertilizers, improved seeds and improved practices. In the past, too little attention has been given to demonstration programmes. Such a programme could be part of a crop production development programme.

In the future, a great role is to be assigned to marketing and pricing policies. There is a great scope for various actions in these fields, which have not been put to their full use in the past and thus did not make a maximum contri-bution towards increased food production. An important area for action concerns the building-up of efficient marketing systems for each of the commodities concerned. Unless strong marketing structures are established, the whole array of economic incentives does not have much chance to be implemented effec-tively. Contract farming is singled out as an important avenue for development of complete sectors, e.g. sugarbeet/cane, oil-seeds and livestock fattening operations.

A major effort is also necessary to increase the transparency of the market. Market intelligence and information needs to be developed and improved. Collection analysis and dissemina-tion of information on prices and markets are crucial pre-requisites for an effective food price policy. This service needs to be institutionalized and should be given'adequate resources to operate.

Food price policy has a potent and prominent role to play in stimulating increases in production of food commodities. Until now the predominant emphasis has been on low food prices for urban consumers. This emphasis should be shifted gradually in favour of better producer prices. As argued previously, there is a case for higgler producer prices. Farm prices for all basic commodities should be fixed at incentive or at least remunerative levels. Incentive prices are important for pro-moting new crops, e.g. sugarbeet, forage, certain oilseeds. However, subsidization of farm prices (input prices) should not be pursued per se, as it leaves only marginal beneficial effects on the small farmers. There should be fresh thinking on new ways and means to give incentives and stimulate efforts to increase production. With regard to input prices, a rational-ization of the distribution process is in order with a view to curbing high profit margins of middlemen. A search for new allocative mechanisms for inputs is necessary.

4.

5.

6.

7.

A3

44 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

8. In future years more attention will have to be paid to price relationships, as this provides an opportunity for stimulating production of one crop versus another· The price adjustments will have to be effected carefully as they may also lead to distortions.

9. There is evidence that various forms of price distortions exist in the countries of the region. Price distortions are to be avoided as they impair the normal functioning and growth of the economy. There is also the necessity for pin-pointing new forms of allocative mechanisms and ways and means to stimulate crop production.

10· Finally, it is noted that the limited food production potential of several countries in the ECWA region and their inability to reach levels close to self-sufficiency points to a need for co-operation at the regional level. Specialization in food and agricultural production would be rewarding for all countries participating in such an undertaking.

11, There is also need to undertake studies with regard to food aid planning in the least developed countries, namely Yemen A.R. and Yemen P.D.R. The precarious food situation and very low levels of food intake, in addition to serious problems of financing of food imports, dictate such an approach.

Annexes to Part I

Annex I

1975 Food Balance Sheets for Selected Countries in the Arab Countries

The present set of food balance sheets for selected commodities in countries of Western Asia has been prepared as part of an a_d_ hoc study on possibilities for increasing food production of Key commodities in the short-term in Western Asia. It is hoped to improve the present set of data and to expand its coverage with a view to covering all ECWA countries and to include additional important commodities. A more accurate picture of the supply-utilization flows of the major food commodi-ties will stimulate in-depth analytical work permitting valuable policy recommenda-tions .

COVERAGE :

Ca] Time: 1975, taken as an average year

(b) Countries:- Iraq

Jordan

Lebanon

Syrian Arab Republic

Yemen Arab Republic

Yemen People's Democratic Republic

(c) Commodities:- All cereals (wheat, all coarse grains

and rice)

sugar

vegetable oils

red meat.

All data and assumptions underlying the food balance sheets were collected by staff members of the ECWA/FAO Joint Agriculture Division during extensive field visits which took place between April and July 1975. The data were processed and tabulated in August/September 1975.

Any comments and suggestions for improvement of the present set of food balance sheets would be welcomed.

45

Table 1. IRAQ:

FOOD BALANCE SHEET

Population 11,067,000

(Thousand

Commodity

CEREALS

Wheat

Wheat Flour

Rice Paddy

Paddy Hilled

Naize

Maize Heal

Millet and Sorghum

Production

0 Gross

4. n 4. 4. Imports

Input

Output

1340

315

1369

1164

1.6

228

212.3

140

131

20

4.2

4.7

4.2

-

9.5

-

metric tons unit

Supply

1655

1165.6

223

271

24.2

4.2

9.5

Gross

Exports

34

1 .9

- - - - -

3ss otherwise mentioned)

Domestic Utilization

Total

1621

11637

228

271

24.2

4.2

9.5

Feed

Seed

131

-

8.9

- 18.6

0.4

-

7.0

0.3

Manufact

Food

1393

- 212.3

-

4.7

-

1 .8

Year:

ured for

Indus-

trial

use

- - - - - - -

1975 (average)

Waste

Food

121

1163.7

6.8

271

0.5

4.2

0.4

Sorghum and Millet

Flour

Barley

Barley Wholeseed

SUGAR

Sugarbeet

Beet Raw Cent

Raw cent refined

Sugarcane

Cane Raw Cent

Raw Cent Refined

1.6

1.6

1 .6

21

83

65.8

83

10

639

67

17.9

-

83

10.8 155

153

170

87

10

9.2

-

706

17.9

83

165.8

323

87

10

9.2

706

17.9

83

165.8

87

10

9.2

567

- - - - - -

44

- - - - - -

63

83

165.

10

32

1 .6

17.9

323

9.2

/. ..

46 Annexes

IRAQ: FOOD BALANCE SHEET CContd.)

Domestic Utilization

Commodity

Production

Input Output

Gross „

Ί

Gross

_

, Supply

Imports

Exports

Manufacture for

Total

Feed

Seed

Food

Indus-

trial

use

Waste Food

OIL SEEDS

Groundnuts

Groundnuts Shelled

Groundnuts Shelled

Oil

Cotton

Cottonseed

Cottonseed Oil

Soybeans

Soybeans Oil

Palm Oil

Linseed

Linseed Oil

Sesameseed

Sesameseed Oil

RED MEAT

Cattle

-

Cattle Neat

Cattle Offals

- 3.3

29.5

- - 5.5

- 14

385^

385^

- 1 .

46

31 5,

- - 7,

1 .

14

6,

385

48,

7, .5

.3

,5

.9

.7

.1

.2

3.3

- - - - 2.8

100

- - - - - - -

3.3

1 .5

46

31 5.3

2.8

100

7.5

1 .9

14

6.7

385

48.1

7.2

1 .7

3.3

1 .5

46

31 5.3

2.8

100 5.8

1.9

6.7

385

48.1

7.2

3.3

1.5

29.5

0.3

5.5

14

385

46

1 .5

5.3

2.8

100

1 .9

6.7

48.1

7.2

Annexes 47

IRAQ:

FOOD BALANCE SHEET (Contd.]

Commodity

Production

Input

Output

Gross

_

_

Gross

_

Supply _

,

Imports

Exports

Domestic Utilization

Total

Feed

Seed

rianufacture for

Food

Indus-

trial

use

Waste

Food

REJD NEAT (Contd.)

Buffaloes-

Buffaloes Meat

Buffaloes Offals

Sheep-

Sheep Neat

Sheep Offals

Goats-

Goats Neat

Goats Offals

Camels-

Camels Heat

Camels Offals

Red meat imports

27.

27. 5^7

4.

27. 5^7

0.

3398

339c£7

54.

339c£7

8

962

962-7

13.

962-7

2

17.

17.S3-7 4.

17. S

9 -7

0.

-

.5

,1

,6

,4

,5

,5

.4

,7

- - - - - - - - - - - 16.2

27.

4.

0,

3398

54.

8

962

13.

2

17.

4.

0.

16, ,5

.1

,6

,4

.5

.5

,4

,7

.2

27.5

4.1

0.6

3398

54.4

8

962

13.5

2

17.5

4.4

0.7

16.2

27.5

3398

962

17.5

4.1

0.6

54.4

13.5

2

4.4

0.7

16.2

a/

Thousands of slaughtered heads.

48 Annexes

Annexes 49

TABLE 1a. IRAQ: Assumptions Underlying Production and Utilization Statistics

For the Year 1975 (Average]

Crops Seed Feed Waste rate per cent Kg/ha of supply

Main Derived Products Extraction rate Derived Product

per cent

Wheat

Rice paddy

Maize

Millet and

Barley

Sugarbeet

raw cent

Sugarcane

raw cent

Groundnuts

Seedcotton

Cottonseed

Linseed

Sesameseed

sorghum

shelled

80^

103

40

30

75a/

-

-

-

-

-

-

&

&

20

-

-

80

80

90

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

--

9J

3

3

4

5

-

-

5

-

-

-

-

--

b/ 85

66

90

90

85

13

92

12

92

45

67

32

18

34

48

Flour

Milled

Meal

Flour

Wholeseed

Raw cent

Refined

Raw cent

Refined

Oil

Cottonseed

Cottonlint

Oil

Oil

Oil

a/ although the recommended seed rate is 120 Kg/ha, only 70 to 80 Kg/ha is used (without fertilizer application], resulting in low plant population

_b/ waste is due to delay in harvesting (fall-out of grains and picking of birds] and storage loss, mainly due to open air shelters: 9 per cent of supply (of which 4 per cent storage loss], compared to 2 to 3 per cent in mechanized farming.

c/ per cent of production.

Livestock Take-0ff Carcass Weight

rate Domestic Imported per cent kg/animal

Offals

Per cent of carcass weight

Cattle

Buffaloes

Sheep

Goats

Camels

19

14

34

42

26

125

150

16

14

250

15

15

15

15

15

TABLE 2.

JORDAN:

FOOD BALANCE SHEET

Population 1,954,000

[Thousand metric tons unless otherwise specified)

Year:

1975 (average)

Domestic Utilization

CEREALS

Production

„

n

Manufacture for

Commodity

Gross

„

,

bross

,,,

,- ,

J

_

, Supply _

,

Total

Feed

Seed

Waste

Food

,

_ ,

, Imports

^

J Exports

Input

Output

,_

Indus-

Food

, . Ί

trial

use

Wheat

Wheat Flour

Wheat Bran

Coarse Grains

Maize

Barley

Rice Hilled

SUGAR

-

274

274 - - -

140

233

27

1 .5

28.5

-

157

35 -

38

9

22.4

297

268

27

39.5

37.5

22.4

297

268

27

39.5

37.5

22.4

16

-

27

37.7

-

32.1

3.6

-

274

0.3

1.4

29 5.2

-

4.0

- - 2

10^

4.3

1 .4

29

7.2

10

268

Ο.θ

1 .8

0.4

1 - 22

Sugar Refined

-

-

44

44

-

44

-

44

VEGETABLE OILS

Sesameseed

-

0.3

4.0

4.3

-

4.3

-

-

3

-

-

1.3

Sesameseed Oil

3

1.4

1.4

-

1.4

-

-

-

-

1.4

Olives

-

29

-

29

-

29

23

-

6

Olives Oil

23

5.2

2

7.2

0.8

6.4

-

-

6.4

Other Vegetable Oils

-

-

10^

10

-

10

-

-

-

-

-

10

50 Annexes

JORDAN:

FOOD BALANCE SHEET (Contd.)

Domestic Utilization

Commodity

Production

Input

Output

Gross

_

.

Gross

_ ^ .

_

, Supply _

,

Total

Imports

Exports

Manufacture for

Feed

Seed

Waste

Food

Indus-

trial

use

Food

RED NEAT

Cattle-

Beef and Veal

Cattle Offals

Sheep—

Mutton

Sheep Offals

n

. a/

Goats-

Goat Neat

Goat Offals

Camels-

Camel Heat

Camel Offals

9.75

11 .1

^

1.3

11 .1 5^ 0.3

241

391-7

5.1

391—7

1.0

133

322-7

4.2

322-7

0.8

1 .5

1.5-7

0.3

1.5^

0.1

1 .

- -

150

2.

-

189 - - - - -

,4

,2

11 ,

1 ,

0,

391 7,

1

322

4,

0,

1 ,

0,

0, .1

.3

.3

.3

.0

.2

.8

.5

.3

.1

11.15

1 .3

0.3

391 7.3

1 .0

322

4.2

0.8

1 .5

0.3

0.1

11 .15

391

322

1 .5

1.3

0.3

7.3

1 .0

4.2

0.8

0.3

0.1

a/

Thousands of slaughtered heads

b/

Of which 4,500 tons soyabeanoil, 4,500 tons palm oil and 1,000 tons other oils [cottonseed oil, etc.

Annexes 51

ΘΟ^

40

70

-

-9 5 . 5

95

-

5

2

5

2

52 Annexes

TABLE 2a. JORDAN: Assumptions Underlying Production and Utilization Statistics

For the Year 1975 [Average]

Seed Feed Waste Nain Derived Prodcts Crops rate per cent of Extraction rate Derived Product

kg/na supply per cent

Wheat ÖO^-7 5 85 Flour

Naize

Barley

Rice Milled

Sesameseed - 48 Oil

Olives - 22.5 Oil

a/ - desert area [150 to 250 mm of rainfall]: 40 to 50 kg/ha of local varieites or mixtures.

- eastern area [250 to 300 mm of rainfall]: 50 to 70 kg/ha of Horani Nawawi variety in the Irbid and Karak districts, F8 variety in the Amman and Balqa districts and the Saffra Na'an variety in the Ma'an district.

- western plain area [300 to 400 mm of rainfall]: 80 to 150 kg/ha; varieties and districts same as for eastern area.

- upland areas [400 mm and more of rainfall]: 150 kg/ha after a good rain, i.e. 50 mm or more; Horani in Irbid and Karak districts and F8 in Amman and Balqa districts.

- Ghor area [irrigated]: 100 to 150 kg/haj main varieties: Narimeh, Gaba and Deir Alia No.1.

Source: A.N. Stetieh and ΙΊ.Α. Smadi, Wheat in Jordan, Demand and Supply Estimations and Projections, Amman, July 1974, pp.9-15

Take-off Carcass Weight Offals Livestock rate Domestic Imported per cent of

per cent kg/animal carcass weight

Cattle 25 120 20

Sheep 37 13 20

Goats 38 13 20

Camels 15 200 20

Population 2,869,000

TABLE 3.

LEBANON:

FOOD BALANCE SHEET

(Thousand metric tons unless otherwise specified)

Year:

1975 (Average)

Commodity

Production

Input

Output

Gross

_

_

Gross

_ , _

_

, Supply _

,

Total

Imports

Exports

Domestic Utilization

Feed

Seed

Manufacture for

Food

Waste

Indus-

trial

use

Food

CEREALS

Wheat

Whe

at

Flo

ur

41

3.8

Rice Hilled

Maize

Barley

Millet and Sorghum

SUGAR

Sugarcane

Sugarbeet

Raw cent

Refined

VEGETABLE OILS

Sesameseed

Sesameseed Oil

6.5

Groundnuts

Groundnuts Shelled

2.2

Groundnuts Oil

2.5

55

314.5

- 5

7

0.8

370

23

24

97

100

3. 7

425

337.

24

102

107

4. 5

5

- 2

1

2

9.

-5

425

335.5

23

100

97.5

4.5

- - - 98

96.4

4.5

6.0

- - - 0.9

-

164

73

0.75

164

18

67.2

0.30

1.05

164

55

73

7.5

74.7

0.1

3

4.2

1.5

1 .2

6.7

3.0

3

6.8

3

4.2

4.5

4.2

0.3

1 .05

164

73

72.7

6.5

3

4.2

2.5

4.2

164

73

6.5

2.2

2.5

5.2

0.2

335.

23

2

1 .05

72.7

4.2

Annexes 53

LEBANON:

FOOD BALANCE SHEET (Contd.:

Domestic Utilization

Commodity

Production

Input

Output

Gross

_

_

Gross

_ _,_ _

Supply _

, Total

Imports

Exports

Feed

Seed

Planufacture for

Indus-

Food

trial

use

Waste

Food

VEGETABLE OILS (Contd.

Sunflowerseed

Sunflower Oil

Cottonseed

Cottonseed Oil

Olives

Olive Oil

Other Vegetable Oi

NEAT

Cattle-

Cattle Neat

Cattle Offals

Sheep-

Sheep Heat

Sheep Offals

r

, b/

Goats-

Goats Meat

Goats Offals

2.2

41.6

31

.is*7 - 89^

89^

513^

513*'

203^

203^7

2.2

0.7

- 7.5

43

7.1

-

19^

11 .6

2.4

95^

11.0

3.1

141^

3.6

0.6

- 0.

41 .

0.

- 0,

3.

70

1 .

-

420 3.

-

62 - -

,2

.6

.4

.3

,0

.3

.3

2.

0.

41.

7.

43 7,

3.

89

12.

2.

515

14.

3.

203

3.

0. .2

,9

.6

.9

.4

.0

.9

.4

.3

.1

.6

.6

0.2

2.2

0.9

41 .6

7.9

43

7.2

89

12.9

2.4

513

14.3

3.1

203

3.6

0.6

2.2

41 .6

31

89

513

203

0.9

7.9

11 7.2

3.0

12.9

2.4

14.3

3.1

3.6

0.6

a/

Includes soybean oil (1,400 t], maize oil (900 t) and other oils,

b/

Thousands of slaughtered heads.

54 Annexes

Annexes 55

TABLE 3a. LEBANON: Assumptions Underlying Production and Utilization Statistics

For the Year 1975 [Average)

Crops Seed Feed Waste rate per cent of Kg/ha supply

Nain Derived Products Extraction rate Derived Product

per cent

Wheat

Rice milled

Maize

Barley

Millet and

Sugarbeet

Olives—

sorg h um

1 5 0 ^

-

50

120

20

-

-

-

98

97

100

-

_

& <& 1

3

-

-

2

Sunflowerseed

Sesameseed

Groundnuts

Groundnuts shelled

Cottonseed

600

76 Flour

11 92

23

33

45

70

46

18

Raw centrifugal Refined

Oil

Oil

Oil

Shelled

Oil

Oil

a/ in certain areas (e.g. South Lebanon] the seed rate varies between 150 and 180 Kg/ha (picking by birds; sown by hand); recommended rate is 120 kg/ha.

b/ 3 per cent harvest loss and 1 per cent post-harvest loss, also on imported wheat.

c/ 1 per cent storage loss on imported milled rice.

d/ 80 per cent for oil; 20 per cent table olives.

Livestock Take-0ff Carcass Weight

rate Domestic Imported per cent kg/animal

Offals per cent of carcass weight

Cattle

Sheep

Goats

22

40

40

130

19

16.2

130

22

20

21.5

28

18

Table 4.

SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC:

FOOD BALANCE SHEET

Population 7,259,000

[Thousand metric tons unless otherwise specified)

Year:

1975 [average)

Domestic Utilization

Production

Gross

_

_

Gross

_ , .

_

Manufacture for

, ,

j_

r-Supply

Total

Feed

Seed

—-

Waste

Food

Commodities

Input Output

Imports

Exports

Indus-

Food

trial

use

CEREALS

Wheat

Wheat Flour

Rice Paddy

Paddy Hilled

COARSE GRAINS

Oats

Maize

Maize Meal

Millet and Sorghum

1158 2.

- -

5

Millet and Sorghum

Flour

Barley

SUGAR

Sugarbeet

Beet Raw Cent

Raw Cent Refined

OILSEEDS

Cotton

Cottonseed

Cottonseed Oil

- -

194

133.

404

234

1173

983

2.4

4

1 .6

2.2

15

4.5

18

3

398

194

23.3

3 123

404

250

40

296

71

- 52

- 3

- - - 27

-

110

46

- - -

1469

1054

2.4

53.6

2.2

18

4.5

18

3

425

-

133.3

169

404

250

40

131 - - - - - - - -

14

194 - - - - 3.6

1338

1054

2.4

53.6

2.2

18

4.5

18

3

411

194

133.3

169

-

250

36.4

- - - - 2.

12.

-

14 -

330 - - - - - -

,2

,1

150

1158

-

30

2.4

0.4

5

-

0.5

0.5

3

-

0.5

53

-

-

20

194

-

133.3

- 404

16

234

1054

53.6

4.5

169

34.6

56 Annexes

SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC:

FOOD BALANCE SHEET (Contd.)

Domestic Utilization

n

...

Production

Gross

_

_

Gross

Commodity

—

r-~F

r~z—r T

4- Supply _

Input Output Imports

Exports

Total

Feed

Seed

rianufacture for

Indus-

Food

trial

use

Waste

Food

Sesameseed

Sesameseed Oil

Sunflower

Sunflower Oil

Olives

Olives Oil

NEAT

Cattle

Cattle Meat

Cattle Offals

c,

a/

Sheep-

Sheep Heat

Sheep Offals

Goats

Goat Neat

Goat Offals

Camels-

Camel Neat

Camel Offals

8

3

113

49^

49^

8

3.8

3

1.2

142

24

81 6.1

1.2

2030

217C£/

21 70^

236^7

236^

39.1

7.8

273

3.5

0.7

12.2

12.

2-

3.1

12.

2-

0.5

3

- - - - 1 .

4

0.

-

250

- 8

- - - - -

11

3.8

3

1.2

142

5

25.5

85

2

6.3

1.2

22S0

39.1

7.8

281 3.5

0.7

12.2

3.1

0.5

- - - - - - 36 0.1

-

110

- 45

- - - - -

11 3.8

3

1 .2

142

25.5

49

6.2

-

2170

39.1

7.8

236

3.5

0.7

12.2

3.1

0.5

113

49

2170

236

14

12.2

3

3.8

1.2

15

25.5

6.2

1.2

39.1

7.8

3.5

0.7

3.1

0.5

a/

Thousands of slaughtered animals

Annexes 57

58 Annexes

TABLE 4a. SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC: Assumptions Underlying Production and Utiliza-tion Statistics for the Year 1975 (average)

Crops Seed Feed Waste rate per cent kg/ha of supply

Nain Extraction :

per cent

85

90

90

83

65

12

92

38 62

17

21

48

40

Derived Products rate

Derived Pn

Flour

Wholeseed

Meal

Flour

Hilled

Raw cent

Refined

Cottonlint Cottonseed

Oil

Oil

Oil

Oil

Wheat

Barley

Oats

Naize

Millet and

Rice paddy

Sugarbeet

Raw cent

Seedcotton

Cottonseed

Olives

Sesameseed

Sunflowerse

sorghum

;ed

100^

80

140

40

20

120

-

-

-

70

---

-

95

100

72

80

-

-

-

-

-

-

--

2.£' ^ 5

3

3

5

-

-

-

-

10

--

a/ on government farms and good farmers: 100 Kg/ha; Nexipak varieties 80 to 100 ~" kg/ha; on rainfed lands 120 to 150 kg/ha.

_b/ when harvested by combine, in most of the dry-farming area, 1 to 2 per cent; c irrigated lands mainly harvested by hand, when crushed in the field waste is 3 per cent and when crushed near the village waste may reach 10 per cent. Post-harvest losses are negligible, less than one per cent of supply.

c/ much more waste than for wheat; when harvested by hand whole hairs break and drop. In certain cases farmers do not sow the next year; they just plough in losses, eventually "salted". When the rains are good, this may yield up to 60 per cent of a good crop.

Lives

Cattle

Sheep

Goats

Camels

toe k T

P

ake-•Off rate er cent

16

39

40

-

Carcass Dornest

125

18

15

250

ic Weight Imported

kg/animal

125

18

-

250

Offals

Per cent of carcass weight

20

20

20

20

Population 6,668

Table 5: YEMEN ARAB REPUBLIC:

FOOD BALANCE SHEET

Thousands

(Thousand metric tons unless otherwise specified)

Year 1975 (average]

Domestic Utilization

Production

Manufacture for

Commodity

_

, Supply ,_

^

Total

Feed

Seed

Waste

Food

T

4.

n j.

x. Imports

Exports

_ _,

Input

Output

^

K

Indus-

Food

trial

use

CEREALS

Wheat

-

55

110

165

-

165

-

4.4 151.6

-

9

-

Wheat Flour

151.4

113.5

37

150.5 -

150.5

-

-

150.5

Coarse Grains

Millet and Sorghum

-

900

-

900

112

788

39

27.5 631.5

-

90

-Millet and

sorghum Flour

Barley

Barley Wholeseed

Maize

Maize Milled

Rice

Rice Milled

SUGAR

Sugar Refined

VEGETABLE OILS

Cotton

Cottonseed

Cottonseed Oil

631 .5

- 112

- 63

- - - 19

11

568

168

90

83

57

- - 23

12

2

568

568

-

568

168

19

149

8

12

112

-

17

90

90

-

90

83

10

73

-

1.7

63

-

8.3

57

-

57

-

57

7.3

7.3

-

7.3

-

7.3

52

52

-

52

-

52

23

4

19

-

-

-

19

-

12

-

12

-

1

11

-

-

2-

2

-

2

Annexes 59

YEMEN ARAB REPUBLIC:

FOOD BALANCE SHEET [Contd.;

Domestic Utilization

Commodity

Production

Input

Output

Gross

Gross

_ , .

T

, Supply _

, Total

Imports

Exports

Manufacture for

Feed

Seed

Waste

Food

Indus-

trial

use

Food

VEGETABLE OILS [Contd.)

Sesameseed

Sesameseed Oil

Other Vegetable

Oils

RED MEAT

Sheep-

Mutton and Lamb

Sheep Offals

r

4-

a/

Goats-

Goat Meat

Goat Offals

Cattle^

Beef and Veal

Cattle Offals

- 3

-

750^

750^

21 OO3 -

7

21OO^7

IOO3-7

100^

5

1 .5

-

750

7.5

1 .5

2100

21

4

100

10

2

5

1 .5 -

4.5

4.5

-

750

7.5

-

1.5

-

2100

21

4

100

10

2

5

1 .

4.

750

7.

1 .

2100

21

4

100

10

2 5

5

,5

,5

750

2100

100

2

1.5

4.5

7.5

1 .5

21 4

10

2

a/

Thousands of slaughtered heads.

60 Annexes

Annexes 61

Table 5a. YEMEN ARAB REPUBLIC: Assumptions Underlying Production and Utiliza-tion Statistics for the Year 1975 [average]

Crops Seed rate kg/ha

80

30

80

25

Feed per

Waste cent

of supply

-

-

8

5

16

10

10

10

Nain Derived Products Extraction rate Derived Product

per cent

Wheat

Maize

Barley

Millet and sorghum

Seedcotton

Cottonseed

Sesameseed

& &

75

90

80

90

38 62

16

50

Flour

Meal

Wholeseed

Flour

Cottonlint Cottonseed

Oil

Oil

a/ 5 per cent of production

Take-off Carcass Weight Offals rate Domestic Imported

per cent kg/animal Per cent of carcass weight Livestock

Cattle

Sheep

Goats

10

25

30

60

10

10

20

20

20

Tabl

e 6.

YEMEN

PEOPLE'S

DEMOCRATIC

REPUBLIC:

FOOD

BA

LANC

E SH

EET

[Thousand

metric

tons un

less

otherwise

specified)

Popu

lati

on 1,677,000

Year:

1974

/75

[ave

rage

)

Domestic

Utilization

Prod

ucti

on

n n

Manufacture for

uFOSS

brOSS

Commodity

x

, Su

pply _

.

Tota

l Feed

Seed

Waste

Food

T .

n 4- +. Imp

orts

^

J Ex

port

s Input

Output

Indus-

Food

trial

use

CERE

ALS

Wheat

21

33

54

4

50

-

1

46

3

-

Wheat

Flou

r 46

37

44

81

4

77

-7

7

Coar

se Grains

Barley

-

2.1

-

2.1 -

2.1

-

-

2.1

-

Barley Pearled

2.1

1.7

1.7 -

1.7

-

-

-

1.7

Mill

et and Sor

ghum

-

71

-

71

-

71

7.1

1.2

S

3.7

- 4

Mill

et and Sor

ghum

^

^ 53

_

53

.

53

-

53

Flou

r

Rice

Milled

31

31

4

27

-

27

SUGAR Sugar

Refined

-

-

31.5

31.6

1.5

30

-

-

-

30

VEGE

TABL

E OILS

Cotton

Cottonseed

16

Cottonseed Oil

5.2

Sesameseed

Sesameseed Oil

2.5

Other Vegetable Oils -

16

10.2

0.8

3.5

1 .25

-

- - - - - 2

16

10.2

0.8

3.5

1 .25

2

- 4

- - - -

16

6.2

0.8

3.5

1 .25

2

16

5.2

0.

2.5

-

1 1 .25

2

/...

62 Annexes

YEMEN PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC: FOOD BALANCE SHEET (Contd.)

Domestic Utilization

Commodity

Production

Input

Output

Gross _

_

Gross

_ , ,

T

, Supply _

,

Total

Imports

^

J Exports

Manufacture for

Feed Seed

Waste

Food

Food

Indus-

trial

use

RED MEAT

Sheep-

Mutton and Lamb

Sheep Offals

Goats

Goat Meat

Goat Offals

Cattle-

Beef and Veal

Cattle Offals

Camels-

Camel Meat

Camel Offals

389^7

38E£7

351*7

351^

11^

11^

13^

13*7

87

6.8

1 .4

351 2.8

0.6

11 1

0.2

13

3

0.6

302

- - - - - - - - - - -

389 6.8

1 .4

351 2.8

0.6

11 1

0.2

13

3

0.6

389

6.8

1.4

351 2.8

0.6

11 1

0.2

13

3

0.6

389

351

11

13

6.8

1 .4

2.8

0.6

1

0.2

3

0.6

a/ Thousands of slaughtered heads.

Annexes 63

64 Annexes

Table 6a. YEMEN PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC: Assumptions Underlying Production and Utilisation Statistics for the

Year 1975 [average)

Seed Feed Waste Hain Derived Products rate per cent Extraction rate Derived Product Kg/ha of supply per cent

Crops

Wheat

Barley

Millet and

Cottonseed

Sesameseed

sorghum

80

-

25

<£' &

10

14

5

6

83

80

90

16

50

Flour

Flour

Flour

Oil

Oil

a/ 5 per cent of production

Lives

Cattle

Sheep

Goats

Camels

ltO( zW Take-off

rate per cent

12

40

40

33

Carcass Weight Offals Domestic Imported

kg/animal Per cent of carcass weight

100

200

20

20

20

20

20

Annex II to Part I

Demand Projections and Production Estimates for Selected Countries in Arab Near East

For each of the six countries under study, the following tables are presented:

Table 1. - Basic assumptions for domestic demand projections

Table 2. - Projection of aggregate domestic demand under low and high alternatives, 1980 and 1985

Table 3. - Nutrition analysis, 1975, 1980 and 1985

Table 4. - Perspectives of agricultural production, 1980

Table 5. - Perspectives of livestock production, 1980

Table 6. - 1975 food position

Table 7. - 1980 food position

65

66 Annexes

TABLE 1

IRAQ: Basic Assumptions for Domestic Demand Projections

Total PCE (Millions of Iraqi Dinars)b)

Low High

PCE per capita (Iraqi Dinars]0^

Low High

Population (Thousands]

Commodities

Wheat flour h^ Coarse grains flour h) Hilled rice Sugar, refined Vegetable oils |

1975

Θ54 C }

77.2

11067 d ]

1980

1255 1375

95.5 104.6

13145

1975 per capita consumption s) (Kg. per year

105.15 2.14

24.48 30.01 10.68

Beef and veal, camel meat 7.34 Mutton and lamb, goat meat 7.03

1985

1679 2423

107.8 155.5

15578

Income elasticity "J

.30 - .34 i] .40 .30 .50

1 .00 J]

.90 J)

Growth Rates

1975-80 I 1980-85 (percent per year]

8.0 10.0

4.3 6.3

3.44d]

Maximum PCE (absolute

value]

94.8 ------

6.0 12.0

2.5 8.3

3.4d)

Type of demand function f)g]

LLI SL SL LI SL SL SL

a] FA0, Country Perspective Study of Agricultural Development for Iraq, Statistical Annex, Rome 1974

b] At 1970 constant prices c] Calculated from FAO, Country Perspective Study of Agricultural Development for

Iraq, Statistical Annex, Rome 1974 d] United Nations, World Population Prospects 1970-2000 (ESA/P/WP.53], New York

March 1975 e] See Annex I to Part I.

f] FAQ,Country Perspective Study of Agricultural Development for Iraq, Statistical Annex, Rome 1974

g] SL = semi-logarithmic, LI = log-inverse, LLI = log-log-inverse; see FAO Agricul tural Commodity Projections 1970-1980, Rome 1971, 2 volumes (vol.11, p.xxxvii],

h] Food demand only i] Barley flour j] Excluding offals

Annexes 67

TABLE 2.

IRAQ: Projection of Aggregate Domestic Demand (Thousand metric tons]

Commodity

Cereals Wheat flour Coarse grains flour Rice, milled

Sugar, refined

Vegetable Oils

Red Neat and Offals

Beef and veal, camel and buffalo meat

Hutton and goat meat

1975

1164 24 271

332

118

81

78

198Γ;

Low

1424 26 349

418

155

117

110

High

1415 25

361

427

162

126

118

1985

Low

1670 30 432

509

194

153

143

High

1471 I 25 I

488

544

225

194

179

TABLE 3.

IRAQ:

Nutrition Analysis a]

[Averages per capita per day)

Cereals

Wheat, flour

Coarse grain flour

Rice, milled

Sugar, refined;

Vegetable Oils

Red Neat and Offals

Beef

and veal, camel

and buffalo meat

Mutton and lamb, goat

meat

Total

1975

Grams

288.1

5.9

67.1

82.2

29.3

20.1

19.3

Calories

1008

20

242

318

259

39

46

1932

1980

Low

Grams

296.8

5.4

72.8

87.1

32.4

24.4

22.9

Calories

1039

19

262

337

286

47

55

High

Grams

295.0

5.3

75.2

88.9

33.7

26.2

24.6

Calories

1032

18

271

344

298

51

59

1985

Low

Grams

293.7

5.2

76.0

89.5

34.1

26.8

25.2

Calories

1028

18

274

346

302

52

61

High

Grams

258.6

4.5

85.9

95.6

39.5

34.2

31 .5

Calories

905

15

309

370

349

66

76

2092

a]

Content per 100 grams of product as purchased:

1975

1985

Wheat flour

Coarse grains (barley)

Rice, milled

Sugar, refined

Vegetable oils

Cattle, buffalo and

camel

Nutton and lamb

Calories

350

346

360

387

884

194

241

Proteins

11.7

9.0

6.7

- -

14.8

11.9

Fats

1.5

1 .4

0.7

-100.0

14.5

21.1

Proteins

33.7

0.5

4.5

-

3.0

2.3

Fats

4.3

0.1

0.5

29.3

2.9

4.1

Proteins

30.3

0.4

5.7

-

5.1

3.7

Fats

3.9

0.1

0.6

39.5

5.0

6.6

Total

44.0

41.2

45.1

55.6

68 Annexes

Annexes 69

TABLE 4.

IRAQ: Perspectives of Agricultural Production, 1980

Commodity

Production [Thousands of tons]

Wheat Coarse grains Maize Millet and sorghum Barley

Rice, paddy Sugarbeet Sugarcane Cotton Linseed Sesameseed Safflower Groundnuts Soybeans Sunflowerseed

Area [Thousands of hectares]

Wheat Coarse grains Naize Millet and sorghum Barley

Rice | Sugarbeet Sugarcane Cotton Linseed Sesameseed Safflower Groundnuts Soybeans Sunflowerseed

Yield (Tons per hectare]

Wheat Coarse grains Maize Millet and sorghum Barley

Rice Sugarbeet Sugarcane Cotton Linseed

1975 a ]

1 340 668.5 20 9.5

639 228 83 87 31 7.5 14 ---3.3

1 633 620 10 10 600 86 3.5 3.5 26 9.4

17.5

---4.5

0.8

2.0 0.9 1.1 2.7 24 25 1.2 0.8

1980 b ]

1 852 1 092

50 12

1 030 506 800 300 88 13 20 14 19 6 8

1 530 1 105

28 9

1 068 158 25 7 63 15 22 15 12.5 5.0

10.0

1.2

1.8 1.3 1.0 3.2 32 42.9 1.4 0.9

Annual growth rate 1975-80 (Percent]

6.7 10.3 20.0 4.8 10.0 27.5 57.0 28.0 21.5 11 .6 7.4 ---

19.4

-1.3 12.3 23.0 -2.1 12.2 12.9 41.0 14.9 19.4 9.8 4.7 ---

17.3

8.4

-2.1 7.6 -1.9 13.5 5.9

11.4 3.1 2.4

Annexes

TABLE 4. (Contd.)

Commodity

Sesameseed Safflower Groundnuts Soybeans Sunflowerseed

1975 3 )

0.8 ---

0. 7

1980 b )

0.9 0.9 1.5 1.2 0.8

Annual growth rate 1975-80 (Percent)

2.4 ---

2.7

a) See Annex i to Part I.

b) FAO, Perspective Study of Agricultural Development for Iraq, Central Policy Paper, Rome, 1974, Table 7

70

Annexes 71

TABLE 5.

IRAQ: Perspectives of Livestock Production, 1980

LIVESTOCK NUMBER [Thousands of heads)

1 9 7 5 M 1980b)

TAKE-OFF [Thousands of heads)

1975 I 1980

TAKE-OFF RATE (Percent)

1 9 7 5 h ! ί 1980 J

YIELD PER ANIMAL I [Carcass weight in kilograms)

! 1975^j 1980 J

Cattle

2 026

2 200

385 440

19 20

125 137.5

Buffaloes

196 216

27.5 30.2

14 14

150 172.5

Sheep

9 994

11 500

3 398 3 910

34 34

16 19

Goats

2 290

2 300

962 966

42 42

14 16

Camels

67 55

17.5 14.3

26 26

250 250

a) See Annex I to Part I.

b) Suggested by Animal Husbandry Department, Ministry of Agriculture and Agricul-ture Department, Ministry of Planning.

72 Annexes

TABLE 6.

IRAQ; 1975 Food Position

(Thousands of metric tons]

Commodity

Wheat (flour]

Grain equivalent

Coarse grains (flour]

Grain equivalent

Rice, milled

Sugar, refined

Vegetable oils

Red meat and offals

Consumption

1163.7

1454.6

23.7

27.5

271

332.2

118.2

159.2

Production

1072.0

1340.0

569.8

668.5

150.5

19.5

14.9

143.0

Balance

- 91 .7

-114.6

+546.1

+ 641

-120.5

-312.7

-103.3

- 16.2

Self-sufficiency

ratio

92

2400

56

6

13

90

TABLE 7.

IRAQ:

1980 Food Position

(Thousand metric tons)

Commodity

Wheat (flour)

Grain equivalent

Coarse grains

(flour)

Grain equivalent

Rice, milled

Sugar, refined

Vegetable Oils

Red meat and

offals

Consumption

(High) 1980

1415

1665

25

29

361

427

162

244

Production

1975

1072.0

1261.2

569.8

668.5

150.5

19.5

14.9

143.0

Balance

-343.0

-403.8

+544.8

+639.5

-210.5

-407.5

-147.1

101 .0

Self-sufficiency

ratio

76

2300

42 5

9

59

Consumption

(High) 1980

1415

1665

25

29

361

427

162

244

Production

1980

1574

1852

931

1092

334

129

40.1

183

Balance

+ 159

+ 187

+ 906

+ 1063

- 27

-298

121 .9

- 61

Self-

sufficiency

ratio

111

3700

93

30

25

75

Annexes 73

74 Annexes

TABLE 1.

JORDAN: Basic Assumption's for Domestic Demand Projections

Total PCE (Millions of Jordanian Dinars] c^

Low High

PCE per capita (Jordanian Dinars] c)

Low High

Population (Thousands]

Commodities

Wheat flour h^ Coarse grains flour "' Milled rice Sugar, refined Vegetable Oils Beef and veal, camel meat Mutton and lamb, goat meat

1975

247 b ]

126

1954

1975 per car consumption (Kg. per yec

137.15 .51

11 .26 22.52 9.11 1 .00 6.81

1980

331 363

144 158

2302

Dita e]

3Γ)

Ir elasi

1 1

1985

442 533

163 197

2710

-icome ;icity

.20 20 65 45 .65 .00 1]

.00 i)

Γ 4-K 4- 3 ) I Growth rates

1975-80 1980-85 (percent per year]

6.0 6.0 8.0 8.0

2.7 2.5 4.6 4.6

3.3d] 3.3d]

Maximum PCE (absolute value]

140 ------

Type of demand functionf)g)

LLI SL SL LI SL LL LL

a] Indicated by the Royal Scientific Society, Economic Research Department b] Estimated by the Royal Scientific Society, Economic Research Department c] At 1975 constant prices d] United Nations, World Population Prospects 1970-2000 (ESA/P/WP.53], New York

March, 1975 e] See Annex I to Part I. f] Ministry of Agriculture, the agricultural sector Five-Year Development Plan

1976-1980, Amman, 1975 g] LL = Double-log, SL = semi-logarithmic, LI = log-inverse, LLI = log-log-

inverse, see FAQ,Agricultural Commodity Projections 1970-1980, Rome, 1971, 2 volumes (vol.11, p.xxxvii].

h] Food demand only i] Excluding offals (elasticity 0.50]

Annexes 75

TABLE 2.

JORDAN: Projection of Aggregate Domestic Demand [Thousand metric tons)

Commodity

Cereals

Wheat flour Coarse grains flour Rice, milled

Sugar, refined

Vegetable Oils

Red Neat and Offals Beef and veal, camel meat Nutton and goat meat

1975

268 1

22

44

18

2 13

1980

Low

319 1

28

55

23

3 18

High

315 1

30

57

24

3 20

1985 |

Low

368 1

36

68

29

4 24

High I

342 ! 2

39

72

32

4 29

JORDAN:

Nutrition Analysis

(Averages per capita per day)

TABLE 3.

Cereals

Wheat flour

Coarse grain flour

Rice, milled

Sugar, refined

Vegetable Oils

Red Pleat and_ Offals

Beef and veal, camel meat

Mutton and goat meat

Total

1975

Grams

375.8

1 .4

30.8

61 .7

24.9

2.7

18.7

Calories

1315 5

111

239

220 5

45

1940

L

Grams

379.4

1 .4

33.5

65.3

27.1

3.1

21 .3

1980

DW Calories

1328

c

121

253

239 6

52

Hi

Grams

374.9

1 .5

35.4

67.6

28.6

3.4

23.4

?h

Calories

1312 5

127

262

252 7

57

Low

Grams

372.2

1 .5

36.0

68.3

29.1

3.5

24.1

Calories

1303 5

129

264

257 7

58

1985

High

Grams

345.6

1 .5

39.8

72.6

32.2

4.3

29.2

Calories

1210

5

143

281

284 8 I

71

2002

a)

Content per 100 grams of product as purchased:

1975

1985

Calories

Proteins

Fats

Wheat flour

Coarse grains [maize]

Rice, milled

Sugar, refined

Vegetable oils

Beef and veal

Nutton and lamb

350

360

360

387

884

194

241

11 .7

9.3

6.7

- -14.8

11 .9

1 .5

4.0

0.7 -

100.0

14.5

21 .1

Proteins

Fats

44.0

5.6

0.1

0.1

2.1

0.2

25.0

0.4

0.4

2.2

4.0

Proteins

40.4

0.1

2.7

-0.6

3.5

Fat

5.2

0.1

0.3

32.2

0.6

0.2

Total

48.8

35.3

47.4

44.5

76 Annexes

Annexes 77

TABLE 4.

JORDAN : Perspectives of Agricultural Production, 1980

Commodity

Production c^ (Thousands of metric tons)

Wheat Coarse grains

Barley Maize

Olives

Area (Thousands of hectares)

Wheat Barley Maize Olives

Yield (Tons per hectare)

Wheat Barley Maize Olives

1975 a }

140.0 30.0 28.5 1 .5

29.0

194.0 53.0 3.0 32.0

0.7 0.5 0.5 0.9

1980 b ]

219.0 47.9 35.5 12.4 53.4

137.0 50.7 20.7 32.0

1 .6 0.7 0.6 1 .7

Annual growth 1975-80 (Percent)

9.4 9.8 4.5 53.0 13.0

- 6.7 - 0.9 47.0 -

18.0 7.3 3.7 13.5

rate

See Annex I to Part I.

Ministry of Agriculture, Agricultural sector five-year plan for the period 1976-1980

It is also planned to establish the technical and economic viability of grow-ing 1 400 ha. soybeans, 1 400 ha. sunflower and 5 000 ha. of sugarbeet. However, research and demonstration on growing these crops is still necessary

78 Annexes

TABLE 5.

JORDAN: Perspectives of Livestock Production, 19E

LIVESTOCK NUMBER (Thousands of heads]

1975 *] 1980 b ]

TAKE-OFF (Thousands of heads]

1975 ^]

1980

TAKE-OFF RATE (Percent]

1975 *] 1980 b ]

YIELD PER ANIMAL (Carcass weight in Kilograms]

1975 a] 1980 CJ

Cattle

44.6

11 .15

25 25

120

Sheep

1056.7

391

37 37

13

Goats

847.4

322

38 38

13

Camels

10

1 .5

...

15 15

200 ...

3] See Annex I to Part I.

b] Red meat production is expected to reach 12.5 thousand tons in 1980, mainly through higher yields per animal (for cattle and sheep and goats], Ministry of Agriculture, Agricultural sector five-year plan for the 1976-1980 period

c] Estimated to remain constant

Annexes 79

TABLE 6.

JORDAN: 1975 Food Position [Thousands of metric tons]

Commodity

Wheat (flour)

Grain equivalent

Coarse Grains [flour)

Grain equivalent

Rice, milled

Sugar, refined

Vegetable oils

Red meat and offals

Consumption

268.0

315.2

1

1

22

44

17.8

15.3

Production

119.0

140.0

27.1

30.0

-

-

5.3

7.6

Balance

-149.0

-175.2

+ 26.1

+ 29.0

- 22

- 44

- 12.5

- 7.7

Self-sufficiency ratio

44

2700

0

0

30

50

TABLE 7.

JORDAN: 1980 Food Position

(Thousand metric tons]

Commodity

Wheat (flour)

Grain equivalent

Coarse grains

(flour)

Grain equivalent

Rice, milled

Sugar, refined

Vegetable Oils

Red meat and

1

offals

Consumption

(High) 1980

315

371 1

1

30

57

24

23

Production

1975

119.0

140.0

27.1

30.0

- -

5.3

7.6

Balance

-196

-231

+ 26.1

+ 29.0

- 30

- 57

- 18.7

- 15.4

Self-sufficiency

ratio

38

2700 0

0

22

33

Consumption

(High) 1980

315

371 1

1

30

57

24

23

Production

1980

188

221

92

102

- - 9.3

12.5

Balance

-127

-150

+ 91

+ 101

- 30

- 57

- 14.7

- 10.5

Self-sufficiency

ratio

60

9200'

0

0

39

54

80 Annexes

Annexes 81

TABLE 1.

LEBANON: Basic Assumptions for Domestic Demand Projections

JTotal PCE (Millions of Lebanese Pounds] b)

Low High

PCE per capita (Lebanese Pounds) b)

| Low High

Population (Thousands)

Commodities

Wheat flour h )

Coarse grains flour h) Hilled rice Sugar, refined Vegetable oils Beef and veal Mutton and lamb, goat meat

1975

c) 6790

2367

cl 2869

1980

9096 9977

2704 2969

3360

1975 per capita consumption d) (Kg. per year)

116.94 .56

8.02 25.34 9.13 5.33 7.53

1985

12160 14659

3074 3706

3965

Income , elasticity

- .10 .10 .21 .25 .59 .70 .80

Growth

1975-80 I (Percent

6.0 8.0

2.7 4.6

3.16 C ]

Maximum PCE (absolute value)

-------

rates a^

1980-85 per year)

6.0 8.0

2.6 4.5

3.26 C ]

Type of demand_.

function

LI SL SL SL SL SL SL

a) Assumed b) At 1972 constant prices calculated on the basis of 7 percentanual growth rate

over 1972 aggregate PCE, LL 5,543 millions; Central Directorate of Statistics, Statistical Abstract 1973 (in French), and Ministry of Planning, 1972-1977 Six-Year Development Plan, Beirut, 1972

c) United Nations, World Population Prospects 1970-2000 (ESA/P/WP.53), New York, March 1975

d) See Annex I to Part I.

e) Central Directorate of Statistics, Household Consumption Survey 1966, Beirut, adapted as suggested by Central Directorate of Statistics

f) Ministry of Planning, Agriculture Department g) SL = Semi-logarithmic, LI = log-inverse; see FAQ,Agricultural Commodity

Projections 1970-1980, Rome, 1971, 2 volumes (vol.11, p.xxxvii) h) Food demand only

82 Annexes

TABLE 2.

LEBANON: Projection of Aggregate Domestic Demand (Thousand metric tons)

Commodity

Cereals

Wheat flour Coarse grains flour Rice, milled

Sugar, refined

Vegetable Oils

Red Heat and Offals

Beef and veal 1 Hutton and goat meat

1975

336 2

23

73

26

37

15 22

1980

Low

388 2

28

88

33

48

20 28

High

385 2

28

90

35

51

21 30

1985

Low

452 2 33

107

42

61

25 36

High

446 2 35

111

46

68

28 40

LEBANON:

Nutrition Analysis

(Averages per capita per day]

TABLE 3.

Cereals

Wheat flour

Coarse grain

flour

Rice, milled

Sugar, refined

Vegetable Oils

Red Neat and Offals

Cattle

Sheep and goat

meat

Total

1975

Grams

320.4

1.5

22.0

69.4

25.0

35.2

14.6

20.6

Calories

1166 5

79

269

221

78

28

50

1818

1980

Low

Grams

316.4

1.6

22.6

71 .7

27.0

38.8

16.0

22.8

Calories

1152 5

81

278

238

86

31

55

High

Grams

314.0

1 .6

23.0

73.4

28.4

41 .3

16.9

24.4

Calories

1143 6

83

284

251

92

33

59

1985

Low

Grams

313.1

1 .6

23.2

74.0

28.9

42.2

17.3

24.9

Calories

1140 6

84

286

255

93

33

60

High

Grams

309.0

1 .6

24.0

77.2

31 .6

47.2

19.2

28.0

Calories

1125 6

87

299

279

104

37

67

1900

a)

Content per 100 grams of product as purchased:

1975

1985

Wheat

Coarse grains(

Rice, milled

Sugar

Vegetable oils

Beef and veal

Nutton

Calories

364

maize) 363

360

387

884

194

241

Proteins

11 .7

9.3

6.7

- -14.8

11 .9

Fats

1 .5

4.0

0.7

-100.0

14.5

21 .1

Proteins

Fats

Proteins

34.9

3.5

33.7

0.1

-

0.1

1.5

0.2

1.6

Total

25.0

2.2

2.1

2.5

4.4

41.2

35.2

2.8

3.3

41 .6

Fats

3.4

0.2

34.6

2.8

5.9

43.9

Annexes 83

84 Annexes

TABLE 4.

LEBANON: Perspectives of Agricultural Production, 1980

Commodity

Production (Thousand tons)

Wheat Coarse grain Sorghum Maize Barley

Olives Sesame seed Sunflower seed Groundnuts Sugarbeet

Area (Thousand hectares]

Wheat Coarse grains Sorghum Maize Barley

Olives Sesame Sunflower Groundnuts Sugarbeet

Yield (Tons per hectare)

Wheat Coarse grains Sorghum Maize Barley

Olives Sesame Sunflower Groundnuts Sugarbeet

1975 3 ]

55 12.8 0.8 5 7 43 0.1 2.2 4.2

164

40 12.1 1 .3 2.0 8.8

. . . 5.5 3.0 3.3

1 .4 1.0 0.6 2.5 0.8

... 0.4 1 .4

50.0

1980 b ]

100 13.5 1 7.5 5 50 0.5 6 5

300

75 9.7 1.7 3.0 5.0

. . . 7.5 3.3 6.0

1 .33 1 .4 0.6 2.5 1.0

0.8 1.5 50.0

Annual growth rates 1975-80 (percent)

12.7 1 .1 4.6 8.4

- 6.5 3.1 38 30.0 3.6 12.8

13.4 - 4.3

5.5 12.5

- 10.7

. . .

. . . 6.4 1.9

12.7

- 1 .0 7.0 --4.6

14.9 1 .4

a) See Annex I to Part I.

Suggested by Cereals and Sugarbeet Office and Ministry of Agriculture.

Annexes

TABLE 5.

LEBANON: Perspectives of Livestock Production, 1980

LIVESTOCK NUMBER (Thousands of heads]

1975 *\ 1980 b }

TAKE-OFF (Thousands of heads)

1975 °j 19Θ0 '

TAKE-OFF RATE (Percent]

1 9 7 5 h! 1980

YIELD PER ANINAL (Carcass weight in kilograms)

' 1975 Domestic . Imported

1980 Domestic Imported

Cattle

88 79

19 17

22 22

130 130 136.5 136.5

Sheep

238 238

95 95

40 40

19 22 19 22

Goats

352 299

141 126

40 42

16.2 20 . 16.2 20

a) See Annex I to Part I.

b) Animal Production Office and FAO/UNDP Project for Livestock Development in Lebanon

85

86 Annexes

TABLE 6.

LEBANON: 1975 Food Position (Thousands of metric tons

Wheat (flour)

Grain equivalent

Coarse grains (flour)

Grain equivalent

Rice (milled)

Sugar (refined)

Vegetable oils

Red Neat and offals

Consumption

335.5

441 .5

1 .6

2.0

23.0

72.7

26.2

36.9

Production

41 .8

55.0

10.2

12.0

-

16.6

12.1

8.0

Balance

-293.7

-386.5

+ 8.6

+ 10.0

- 23.0

- 56.1

- 14.1

- 28.9

Self-sufficiency ratio

13

638

0

23

46

22

TABLE 7.

LEBANON:

1980 Food Position

(Thousand metric tons)

Commodity

Wheat (flour)

Grain equivalent

Coarse grains (flour)

Grain equivalent

Rice (milled)

Sugar (refined)

Vegetable oils

Red meat and offals

Consumption

1980 High

385

507

2

2.3

28

90

35

51

Production

1975

41.8

55

10.2

12 -

16.6

12.1

8

Balance

-343.2

-452

+

8.2

+

9.7

- 28

- 73.4

- 22.9

- 43

Self-

sufficiency

ratio

11

510

0

18

35

16

Consumption

1980 High

385

507

2

2.3

28

90

35

1

51

Production

1980

75

100

12.2

13.5

-

30.4

13.0

7.6

I

Balance

-310

-407

+ 10.2

+ 11 .2

- 28

- 59.6

- 22

- 43.4

Self-

sufficiency

ratio

19

610 0

34

37

15

I

Annexes 87

88 Annexes

TABLE 1.

SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC: Basic Assumptions for Domestic Demand Projections

Total PCE [Millions of Syrian Pounds] a^

Low High

PCE per capita [Syrian Pounds] a]

Low High

Population [Thousands]

Commodities

Wheat flour e ]

r· ^τ e ) |Coarse grains flour Hilled rice Sugar, refined Vegetable oils Beef and veal, camel meat Mutton and lamb, goat meat

1975

5903

813

7259

1980

7427 7900

870 925

8536

1975 per capita consumption c) [Kg per year]

145.19 1.03 7.38

23.28 9.21 1 .51 7.03

1985

9523 11183

945 1109

10081

Income , elasticity

.20

.10 J

.40

.50

.40 1 .20 1 .20

Growth rates |

1975-80 (percent

4.7 6.0

1.4 2.6

3.24

Maximum PCE (absolute

value]

937.2

------

1980-85 per year]

5.1 7.2

1 .7 3.7

3.33

Type of demand . ,. « .. a]d) function

L L I f] , SL J

SL LI SL LL LL

a] Preparatory work for FAO Country Perspective Study of Agricultural Development for Iraq; at 1970 constant prices.

b] United Nations, World Population Prospects 1970-2000 (ESA/P/WP.53]; New York, March, 1975.

c^ See Annex I to Part I. d] LL = double-log, SL = semi-logarithmic, LI = log-inverse, LLI = log-log inverse;

see FAO Agricultural Commodity Projections 1970-1980, Rome, 1971, 2 volumes (vol.11, p. xxxvii].

e] Food demand only. f] Maize flour.

Annexes 89

TABLE 2.

SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC: Projection of Aggregate Domestic Demand (Thousand metric tons]

Commodity

Cereals

Wheat flour Coarse grains flour Rice, milled

Sugar, refined

Vegetable oils

Red meat and offals

Beef and veal, camel meat

Mutton and goat meat

1

1975

1054 7.5 53.6

169

66.9

11.0

51 .1

1980

Low

1252 9 65

205

Θ1

14

65

High

1257 9 66

211

83

15

70

1985

Low

1484 11 79

252

98

18

85

High

1458 11 84

268

104

22

103

TABLE 3.

a)

SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC:

Nutrition Analysis

(Averages per capita per day)

Cereals

Wheat flour

Coarse grain

flour

Rice, milled

Sugar, refined

Vegetable oils

Red meat and offals

Beef and veal,

camel

Hutton and goat

meat

Total

1975

Grams

397.8

2.8

20.2

63.8

25.2

4.1

19.3

Calories

1392

10

73

247

223 8

46

1999

1980

Low

Grams

401 .8

2.8

20.8

65.9

25.9

4.5

20.9

Calories

1406

10

75

255

229 9

50

High

Grams

403.3

2.9

21 .3

67.8

26.5

4.8

22.5

Calories

1411

10

77

262

235 9

54

1985

Low

Grams

403.3

2.9

21 .4

68.4

26.8

5.0

23.1

Calories

1412

10

77

265

236

10

56

High

Grams

396.3

2.9

22.7

72.9

28.4

6.0

28.0

Calories

1387

10

82

282

251

12

67

2091

a)

Content per 100 grams pf product as purchased:

Calories

Proteins

Wheat flour

Coarse grains flour

Rice, milled

Sugar, refined

Vegetable oils

Beef and veal

Mutton and lamb

Fats

1975

1985

350

340

360

387

884

194

241

11 .7

9.7

6.7

- -14.8

11 .9

1 .5

3.0

0.7

-100.0

14.5

21 .1

P roteins

46 0

1

0

2

5

.3

.4

.6

.3

Fats

6.0

0.1

0.1

25.2

0.6

4.1

Proteins

46.4

0.3

1 .5

-0.9

3.3

Total

51 .1

36.1

52.4

Fats

5.9

0.1

0.2

28.4

0.9

5.9

41 .3

90 Annexes

Annexes 91

TABLE 4.

SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC: Perspectives of Agricultural Production, 1980

Commodities

Production (Thousand tons)

Wheat Coarse grains Oats Maize Millet and sorghum Barley

Rice, pady Sugarbeet Seed cotton Sesameseed Sunflowerseed Olives Soybeans Groundnuts

Area (Thousand hectares)

Wheat Coarse grains Naize Millet and sorghum Barley

Rice, paddy Sugarbeet Seed cotton Sesameseed Sunflowerseed Olives Soybeans Groundnuts

Yield (Tons per hectare)

Wheat Coarse grains Maize Millet and sorghum Barley

Rice Sugarbeet Seed cotton Sesameseed Sunflowerseed Olives Soybeans Groundnuts

a) 1975

1,173.0 433.2 2.2 15 18 398

1 .6 194 250 8 3

142 -

1,410 698 11 27 660 0.8

223 . . .

. . . --

0.83 0.6 1 .4

°·7 0.6 2.0

1 .1 . . . . . . . . . -

1980 b }

Irrigated

970 259 -

255 5 -80

2310 474 34 12 . . . 50 33

224 67 64 3 -

75 176 28 5 -25 13

4.3 3.9 4.0 1.7 -

. . . 30.8 2.7 1.2 2.4

2.0 2.5

Non-Irrigated

1 ,909 858 --58 800 -79 14 18 3

. . . 2 6

1,027 443 -47 396 -6 26 27 4 -2 3

1.9 1 .9 -1.2 2.0 -

13.2 0.5 0.7 0.7

1 .0 2.0

Total

2,879 1 ,117

-255 63 800 80

2389 488 52 15 175 52 39

1,251 510 64 50 396 . . . 81 202 55 9

■ . ■

27 16

2.3 2.2 4.0 1.3 2.0

■ ■ .

29.5 2.4 0.9 1 .7

. . . 1 .9 2.4

Annual growth

1975-80 (percent)

19.7 20.5 -

78.0 28.5 15.0

+100.0 65.0 14.3 45.5 38.0 4.3 --

- 2.4 - 6.1 42.5 13.1 9.7

. . .

. . . - 2.0 . . . . . . . . .

--

22.5 29.2 23.0 13.2 27.1 ... . . . 16.9 ■ . .

. ■ .

. . . --

rate

a) See Annex I to Part I. b) Ministry ot Agriculture and Agrarian Reform.

92 Annexes

TABLE 5.

SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC: Perspectives of Livestock Production, 1980

LIVESTOCK NUNBER (Thousands of heads]

i 9 7 5 h ! 1980b)

TAKE-OFF (Thousands of heads]

19753]

1980

TAKE-OFF RATE (Percent)

1975a; 1980CJ

YIELD PER ANIMAL (Carcass weight in kilograms)

i 9 7 5 c ! 1980 J

Cattle

503 730

81 117

16 18.5

125 137.5

... —

Sheep

5198 6000

2030 2460

39 41

18 20

_.. —

Goats

683 893

273 375

40 42

15 16.5

Camels

8 -

■ ■ ■

-

. · ■

-

250

"

a) See Annex I to Part I. b) Ninistry of Agriculture, Proposed for 1976-1980 Five-Year Plan. c) Suggested by Ninistry of Agriculture, Animal Husbandry Department and Central

Bureau of Statistics, Agricultural Statistics Section.

Annexes 93

TABLE 6.

SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC: 1975 Food Position [Thousands of metric tons]

Commodity

Wheat [flour]

Grain equivalent

Coarse grains [flour]

Grain equivalent

Rice [milled]

Sugar [refined]

Vegetable oils

Red meat and offals

Consumption

1054.0

1239.5

7.5

8.6

53.6

169.0

66.9

62.1

Production

997.1

1173.0

388.6

433.2

1.6

21 .4

133.5

64.4

Balance

- 56.9

- 66.5

+ 381 .1

+424.6

- 52.0

-147.6

+ 36.6

+ 2.3

Self-sufficiency

ratio

95

5180 j

3

13

155

104

TABLE 7.

SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC:

Food Position

(Thousand metric tons]

Commodity

Wheat (flour]

Grain equivalent

Coarse grains (flour]

Grain equivalent

Rice (milled]

Sugar (refined]

Vegetable oils

Red meat and offals

Consumption

1980 (high]

1257

1479 9

10

66

211

83

85

Production

1975

997.1

1173.0

388.6

433.2

1 .6

21 .4

103.5

64.4

Balance

-259.9

-306.0

-379.6

-423.2

- 64.4

-189.6

+ 20.5

- 20.6

Self-

sufficiency

ratio

79

4300

2

10

125

76

Consumption

1980 (high]

1257

1479 9

10

66

211

83

85

Production

1980

2447

2879

1003

1117

52.8

264

138.5

85.7

Balance

+ 1190

+ 1400

+

99.4

+ 1107

-

13.2

+

53

+

55.5

+

0.7

Self-

sufficiency

ratio

195

11000

80

125

167

101

94 Annexes

Annexes 95

TABLE 1 .

ΥΕΠΕΝ ARAB REPUBLIC: Basic Assumptions for Domestic Demand Projections

Total PCE [Millions of Yemeni Riyals) b) c^

Low High

PCE per capita [Yemeni Riyals) c)

Low High

Population [Thousands)

Commodities

Wheat flour l }

Coarse grains flour Milled rice Sugar, refined Vegetable oils Beef and veal Mutton and lamb, goat meat

1975

3954

593

6668 d }

1980

5046 5291

652 684

7741

1975 per capita consumption e) [Kg per year)

22.57 107.22

1.09 7.79 1 .19 1.79 5.09

1985

6752 7738

750 860

9000

Income „ elasticity

.70

.30 1 .00 .90

1 .20 .96 .96

Growth rates

I

1975-80 I 1980-85 [percent per year)

5.0 6.0

1 .9 2.9

3.0 d ]

Maximum PCE [absolute value) tf

_

890 -----

6.0 8.0

2.8 4.7

3.0 d M

Type of demand

"unctiong)h)

LL LLI LL SL SL LL LL

a) Assumed. b) Applied observed growth rate of 5 percent per annum on 1972/1973 aggregate

PCE, YR 3586 millions; Central Planning Organization and Economic Commission for Western Asia, The National Accounts of the Yemen Arab Republic for the years 1969-1973, Sana'a, May 1974, p.73.

c) At 1972/73 constant prices. d) United Nations, World Population Prospects 1970-2000 [ESA/P/WP.53), New York

March 1975. e) See Annex j to Part I. f) Central Planning Organization. g) Taken from Statistical Annex to FAQ, Country Perspective Study for Agricultur-

al Development of the Sudan, Rome, 1973 h) LL = double-log, SL = semi-logarithmic; LLI - Log-log inverse; see FAO,

Agricultural Commodity Projections 1970-1980, Rome, 1971, 2 volumes [vol.11, p. xxxvii).

i) Food demand only.

96 Annexes

TABLE 2.

ΥΕΙΊΕΝ ARAB REPUBLIC: Projection of Aggregate Domestic Demand (Thousand metric tons]

Commodity

Cereals

Wheat flour Coarse grains flour Rice, milled

Sugar, refined

Vegetable oils

Red meat and offals

Beef and veal Mutton and lamb

1975

150.5 715.0 7.3

52.0

8.0

46.0

12.0 34.0

19Θ0

Low

187 851 9

65

10

58

15 43

High

193 859 10

68

11

61

16 45

1985

Low

239 1012 12

85

14

77

2Z 57

High

264 1021 14 !

94 j

15

88

23 65

TABLE 3.

B)

ΥΕΙΊΕΝ ARAB REPUBLIC:

Nutrition Analysis

(Averages per capita per day]

Cereals

Wheat, flour

Coarse grain flour

Rice, milled

Sugar, refined

[Vegetable oils

Red meat and offals

Beef and veal

Mutton and goat meat

Total

1975

Grams

61 .8

293.8

3.0

21.3

3.3

18.9

4.9

14.0

Calories

225

999

11

83

29

44

10

34

1391

1980

Low

Grams

66.1

301 .1

3.3

23.2

3.6

20.7

5.4

15.3

Calories

241

1024

12

90

32

47

10

37

High

Grams

68.3

303.9

3.4

24.1

3.8

21.6

5.6

16.0

Calories

249

1033

12

93

34

50

11

39

1985

Low

Grams

72.9

308.0

3.8

25.9

4.2

23.6

6.1

17.5

Calories

265

1047

14

100

37

54

12

42

High

Grams

80.2

310.8

4.3

28.5

4.7

26.9

7.0

19.9

Calories

292

1057

16

110

42

62

14

48

1579

Content per 100 grams of product as purchased:

Calories

Proteins

Fats

Wheat flour

Coarse grains flour

Rice, milled

Sugar

Vegetable oils

Beef and veal

Mu

tto

n an

d la

mb

364

340

360

387

884

194

241

11.7

9.7

6.7

- -14.8

11 .9

1 .5

3.0

0.7

-100.0

14.5

21 .1

Tot

al

1975

19

85

Proteins

6.7

28.5

0.2

-0.

7 1 .7

Fats

0.7

8.8

-

3.3

0.7

2.9

Proteins

8.7

30.1

0.3

-1 .0

2.4

Fats

0.9

9.3

-

4.7

1 .0

4.2

37

.8

16.4

4

2.6

2

0.2

Annexes 97

98 Annexes

TABLE 4.

YEMEN ARAB REPUBLIC: Perspectives of Agricultural Production, 1980

Commodity

Area (Thousand hectares)

Wheat

Coarse grains Sorghum and millet Maize Barley

Sesame

Cotton

Production (Thousand metric tons)

Wheat

Coarse grains Sorghum and millet Maize Barley

Sesameseed

Cotton

Yield (Tons per hectare)

Wheat

Coarse grains Sorghum and millet Naize Barley

Sesame

Cotton

1975a]

55

1 ,299 1,100

52hl

147b}

9

25

55

1,151 900

168b]

5

23

1 .0

0.8

1.1b]

0.5

0.9

1980a]

85

1,330 1,120

60pl

150C}

12

40

93

1 ,279 1,008

96c) 175C}

6

44

1.1

0.9 1.6 . 1.1C]

0.5

1 .1

Annual growth 1975-1980

9.1

0.4 2.9 0.4

5.9

9.8

11 .1

2.3 3.0 0.8

3.7

13.8

1 .9

2.4 --

-

4.1

rate

a) Central Planning Organization. b) See Annex I to Part I. c) Estimated,ECWA/FAO Joint Agriculture Division.

Annexes 99

TABLE 5.

ΥΕΙΊΕΝ ARAB REPUBLIC: Perspectives of Livestock Production3 , 1980

LIVESTOCK NUHBER (Thousand heads)

1 9 7 5 h l

1980b]

TAKE-OFF (Thousand heads) 197Bhl

1980b]

TAKE-OFF RATE (Percent)

1980b)

YIELD PER ANIHAL (Carcass weight in kilograms)

1975,. 1980b]

Cattle

1 ,000

100

10

60

Sheep

3,000

750

25

10

Goats

7,000

2,100

30

10

a) See Annex I to Part I.

b) Neat production is estimated to grow at 2.0 percent per year during the 1975-1980 period, A.A. El-Sherbini, Yemen: Production Notes, Hay 1975, p.6.

XOO Annexes

TABLE 6.

YEMEN ARAB REPUBLIC: 1975 Food Position (Thousands of metric tons)

Commodity

Wheat (flour)

Grain equivalent

Coarse grains (flour)

Grain equivalent

Rice (milled)

Sugar (refined)

Vegetable oils

Red meat and offals

Consumption

150.5

200.6

715

806.Θ

7.5

52.0

8.0

46

Production

41 .3

55.0

1,019.1

1,151 .0

-

-

6.2

46

Balance

-109.2

-145.6

+304.1

+344.2

- 7.5

- 52.0

- 1 .8

-

Self-sufficiency ratio

27

143

0

0

78

100

TABLE 7.

YEMEN ARAB REPUBLIC:

1980 Food Position

(Thousand metric tons]

Commodity

Wheat(flour]

Grain equivalent

Coarse grains (flour]

Grain equivalent

Rice (milled]

Sugar (refined]

Vegetable oils

Red meat and offals

Demand

1980

High

193

257

859

970

10

68

11

61

Production

1975 41

55

1019

1151

- - 6.2

46

Balance

-152

-202

+ 160

+ 181

- 10

- 68

-

4.8

- 15

Self-

sufficiency

ratio

21

119

0

0

56

75

Demand

1980

High

193

257

859

971

10

68

Ï1

61

Production

1980

70

93

1132

1279 - - 7.5

50.8

Balance

-123

-164

+ 273

+ 308

- 10

- 68

-

3.5

- 10.2

Self-

sufficiency

ratio

36

132

0

0

68

83

Annexes 101

102 Annexes

TABLE 1 .

YEMEN PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC: Basic Assumptions for Domestic and Demand projec-tjpns ai

TOTAL

Total disposable income . [Millions of Yemeni Dinars)

Low High

Disposable income per capita (Yemeni Dinars)0^

Low High

Population (thousands]

RURAL

Total disposable income (Millions of Yemeni Dinars]'3-'

Low High

Disposable income per capita (Yemeni Dinars)0)

Low High

Population (Thousands)

Commodities

[Wheat flour Sorghum and millet flour Milled rice Vegetable oils Red meat Sugar c)

1975

77.8

46.4

1677

62.5

43.9

1423

1980

94.7 96.0

49.3 50.0

1920

75.9 76.9

46.7 47.3

1626

1985

116.3 120.9

51 .9 55.0

2200

93.4 97.1

50.2 52.2

1860

1975 per capita consumption (Kg per year)

48.6 20.9 17.3 3.5 10.3 17.9

Income elasticity

0.25 0.60 0.36 0.72 1 .10 0.40

Growth rates

i 1975-80 I 1980-85 (percent per year)

4.0 4.3

1 .2 1 .5

2.7

4.0 4.2

1 .2 1 .5

2.68

4.2 4.7

1 .0 1 .9

2.2

4.2 4.8

1 .5 2.0

2.70

Maximum PCE (absolute value)

-----

I "

Type of demand

function

LL LL LL LL LL LI

. . /

Annexes 103

TABLE 1. (Contd.)

URBAN

Total disposable income (Millions of Yemeni Dinars)'3'1

Low High

Disposable income per capita (Yemeni dinars)°)

Low High

Population (Thousands)

Commodities

Wheat flour Sorghum and millet flour Rice, milled Vegetable oils Red meat Sugar c)

1975

15.3

603

254

1980

18.8 19.1

64.1 65.0

294

1985

22.9 23.8

67.5 70.0

340

1975 per capita consumption (Kg per year)

52.2 24.7 19.2 4.2

15.0 17.9

Growth rates

| 1975-80 | 1980-85

(Percent

4.2 4.5

1 .2 1.5

2.95

Income elasticity

0.12 0.30 0.18 0.36 0.71 0.40

per year)

4.0 4.5

1 .0 1 .5

2.95

Maximum PCE (absolute value)

------

Type of demand

function

LL LI LL LI LL LI

a) Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform, Countrywide Agro and Socio-Economic Study, volume one: main report, draft, prepared by Dar Al-Handasah, Beirut, Nay 1974.

b) At 1972 constant prices. c) FA0, Agricultural Commodity Projections 1970-1980, Rome, 1971.

104 Annexes

TABLE 2.

YENEN PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC: Projection of Aggregate Domestic Demand (Thousand metric tons)

Commodity

TOTAL COUNTRY

[Cereals

Wheat flour Coarse grains flour Rice, milled

Sugar

Vegetable oils

Red meat and offals

'RURAL

Cereals

Wheat flour Coarse grains flour Rice, milled

Sugar, refined

Vegetable oils

Red meat and offals

[URBAN

Cereals

Wheat flour Coarse grains flour Rice, milled

Sugar, refined

[Vegetable oils

|Red meat and offals

1975

82.5 36.0 29.5

30.0

6.1

18.5

69.2 29.7 24.6

5.0

14.7

13.3 6.3 4.9

1 .1

3.8

1980

Low

95 42 35

36

7

23

80 35 29

6

18

15 7 6

1

5

High

96 43 35

37

7

23

81 36 29

6

18

15 7 6

1

5

1985

Low

111 51 41

43

8

28

93 42 34

7

22

18 9 7

1

6

High

112 52 41

45

9

29

94 43 34

7

23

18 9 i

7

2

6

TABLE 3.

YEMEN PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC:

Nutrition Analysis a]

(Averages per capita per day]

TOTAL COUNTRY

Cereals

Wheat, flour

Coarse grain flour

Rice, milled

Sugar

(Vegetable oils

Red meat and offals

1

Total

RURAL

Cereals

Wheat, flour

Coarse grain flour

Rice, milled c]

Sugar, refined

Vegetable oils

|Red meat and offals

Tota

1975

Grams

134.8

58.9

48.2

49.0

9.9

] 30.1

133.2

57.3

47.4

49.0

I 9.6

i 28.2

1 J

Calories

490.7

198.5

173.5

189.6

87.5

67.8

1207.5

j 485

196

171

189.6

85

64

Π190.6

1980

L

Grams

135.6

60.0

49.9

51 .2

9.9

32.9

135.2

59.4

48.5

51 .2

10.0

30.2

ow

Calories

493.6

202.2

179.6

198.1

87.5

74.1

492

203

174

198.1

89

68

High

Grams

137.0

61 .4

49.9

52.9

9.9

32.9

135.7

59.9

48.7

52.9

10.1

30.6

Calories

498.7

206.9

179.6

204.7

87.5

74.1

494

205

175

204.7

90

69

1985

Low

Grams

138.4

63.5

51 .0

53.4

9.9

34.8

137.7

62.1

49.7

53.4

10.6

32.7

Calories

503.8

214.0

183.6

206.7

87.5

78.4

501

212

179

206.7

94

74

High

Grams

139.5

64.7

51 .0

56.2

11 .2

36.2

139.0

63.5

50.4

56.2

10.9

34.1

Calories

507.8

218.0

183.6

217.5

99.1

81 .6

1307.6

506

217

182

217.5

96

77

1295.5

,./..,

Annexes 105

TABLE 3. CContd.)

Wheat flour

Coarse grains flour

Rice, milled

Sugar, refined

Vegetable oils

Red meat

Total

1975

Proteins

14.5

5.7

3.2

3.6

27.0

Fats

1 .5

1 .8

0.3

9.6

5.3

18.5

1985

Proteins

15.2

6.8

3.4

4.4

29.8

Fats

1 .5

2.0

0.4

10.9

6.4

21 .2

URBAN

Cereals

Wheat, flour

Coarse grain flour

Rice, milled c)

Sugar, refined

Vegetable oils

Red meat and offals

Tota

1975

Grams

143.0

67.7

52.6

49.0

11.5

41 .9

1

1

Calories

521

232

189

189.6

102

94

1327.6

1980

Low

Grams

144.1

68.9

53.2

51 .2

11 .8

42.9

Calories

524

236

191

198.1

104

97

High

Grams

144.3

69.2

53.3

52.9

11 .8

43.3

Calories

525

237

192

204.7

104

98

1985

Low

Grams

145.0

70.0

53.6

53.4

12.0

44.5

Calories

528

239

193

206.7

106

100

Hii

Grams

145.6

70.8

53.9

56.2

12.1

45.7

fh Calories

530

242

194

217.5

107

103

1393.5

a)

Content of 100 grams of product:

Wheat flour

Coarse grains flour

Rice, milled

Vegetable oils

Sugar, refined

Red meat (2/3 mutton, 1/3 beef)

Calories

364

337

360

884

387

225. 3

Proteins

10.9

8.3

6.7

- -12.8

Fats

1 .1

2.5

0.7

100.0

-18.9

1975

Proteins

Fats

1985

Proteins

Fats

15.6

6.7

3.5

5.4

1.6

2.2

0.4

11 .5

7.9

15.9

7.{}

3.6

5.8

1 .6

2.3

0.4

12.1

b]

Includes beef and veal, mutton and lamb, camel meat.

c) Total country per capita.

31.2

23.6

32.3

25.0

Tot

al

106 Annexes

Annexes

TABLE 4.

ΥΕ1ΊΕΝ PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC: Perspectives of Agricultural Production9^, 1978/79

Commodity

Production (Thousand tons)

Wheat

Maize and millet

Sesame

Cotton

Area (Thousand hectares]

Wheat Maize and millet

Sesame

Cotton

Yield (Tons per hectare)

Wheat

Maize and millet

Sesame

Cotton

1974/75

20.8

70.5

3.5

16.0

11.7 45.4

4.1

13.0

1 .7

1.5

0.9

1 .2

1978/79

36.0

89, 5

4.0

25.0

18.2 50.2

4.3

20.3

2.0

1.8

1.0

1.2

Annual growth rate 1974/75 - 1978/79

14.7

6.15

3.4

11.8

11 .8 2.6

Q.7

11.7

3.4

4.0

7.5

-

a) State Planning Commission,Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development, 1974/75-1978/79, Aden, 1974, pp.19 and 22.

107

108 Annexes

TABLE 5.

ΥΕΠΕΝ PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC: Perspectives of Livestock Production3^, 1980

LIVESTOCK NUMBER (Thousand heads)

1975 1980

TAKE-OFF I (Thousand heads)

1975 1980

TAKE-OFF RATE (Percent)

1975 1980

YIELD PER ANIMAL 1 (Carcass weight in kg)

1975 1980

Cattle

91.7

11

12

100

Sheep

972.5

389

40

8

Goats

877.5

351

40

8

Camels

39.4

13

33

200

a) See Annex I to Part I. For 1980, it is assumed that prduction will increase at 2 percent per annum, as in Yemen Arab Republic.

Annexes 109

TABLE 6.

YEMEN PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC: 1975 Food Position (Thousand metric tons)

Commodity

Wheat (flour]

Grain equivalent

Coarse grains (flour)

Grain equivalent

Rice,(milled)

Sugar,(refined)

Vegetable oils

Red meat and offals

Consumption

82.5

97.1

36

40.2

29.5

30.0

6.1

18.5

Production

17.4

21 .0

65.6

73.1

-

-

3.4

8.6

Balance

- 65.1

- 76.1

+ 29.6

+ 32.9

- 29.5

- 30.0

- 2.7

- 9.9

Self-suffiency ratio

21

182

0

0

56

46

TABLE 7.

YEMEN PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC:

1980 Food Position

(Thousand metric tons]

Commodity

Wheat [flour]

Grain equivalent

Coarse grains (flour]

Grain equivalent

Rice (milled]

Sugar (refined]

Vegetable oils

Red meat and offals

Consumption

1980 (High]

96

116

43

48

35

35

7

23

Production

1975

17.4

21 .0

65.6

73.1

- -

3.4

8.6

Balance

- 78.6

- 95.0

+ 22.6

+ 25.1

- 35.0

- 35.0

-

3.6

- 14.4

Self-

sufficiency

ratio

18

153

0

0

49

37

Consumption

1980 (High]

96

116

43

48

35

35

7

23

Production

1978/79

30.0

36.0

80.6

89.5

- -

4.5

9.3

Balance

- 66.0

- 80.0

+ 37.6

+ 41 .5

- 35.0

- 35.0

-

2.5

13.7

Self-

sufficiency

ratio

31

187

0

0

64

40

110 Annexes

Part II DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS ANDSTOCK-AND-ALLOCATION FOOD POLICIES

Chapter 8

Case Study of Jordan

149· Wheat is the main cereal produced in Jordan for human consumption and wheat products constitute a staple food in the country with an average consumption of about 130 kg. per capita. Thus it is of primary importance to stabilize the supply of wheat and its equitable distribution in the country,

150. Over the last 15 years, the yearly production of wheat in East Jordan has been highly variable and the variations seem to be random (haphazard), a bumper harvest being followed indifferently by a poor, average or good harvest. Tn order to give an idea of the amplitude of the variations, Table 24 shows the production of wheat in two extreme harvest years - 1964 and 1973 - by districts and the total for East Jordan.

151. It mi^it be objected that such a comparison between the highest and the lowest production figures is not a fair representation of the situation and that a year-to-year comparison would be more to the point. In order to answer this objection, Table 1 and Graph 1 f Annex If Part II, gives the yearly production figures during the period 1961-75 by dieirict. It can thus be seen that for the total production of East Jordan (with an average of 135 800 M.T.)the variation between successive years amounts to more than 100 000 M.T. in 7 cases (or one-half of the cases). The standard deviation is 70 800 M.T. and the coefficient of variation is 52 per cent,

152. This higfr variability is due to a number of causes, some of which are out-side human control like climatic conditions while others may be due to misconcep-tions or miscalculations of the farmer. Although the climatic variables are in-dependent (e.g. the rainfall intensity during a given year is not correlated with the rainfall intensity of the previous year or years) and it is impossible to pre-dict what will be the value of these variables on the basis of past experience, the farmers seem to think otherwise and very often their decisions to sow or plant, to fertilize or not, etc. are based on unjustifiable premises.

153· Such cases of unjustified decisions are encountered often in Jordan:

- A poor return from one crop in a certain year is followed by a re-duction of the area under that particular crop the following year.

- Poor rainfall intensity in the early part of the agricultural year makes for a reduction of the area sown and/or a reduction of the use of fertilizers, etc.

Ill

112 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

- Poor climatic conditions during a couple of successive years are wrongly assumed to be necessarily followed by a year when the con-ditions would be good (on the basis of an intuitive principle of compensation).

154. The instability of production, not only may be the cause of wrong decisions on the part of the individual farmers, as mentioned above, but it might result at the national level in poor planning of agricultural development policies and food security for the country.

155· For the realization of food security it is essential:

a) To control the instability of production of a crop through the selection of the regions or zones where the production of that particular crop is on average good (or at least average) and where instability of production is not very high.

b) To devise a system to obtain the estimated production well in advance in order that planning authorities can formulate and implement adequate import (or export) policies.

c) To establish, on the basis of an adequate stock policy, a storage system well distributed over the country which would serve to stabilize the supply of in-stock and out-of-stock movements in years of surplus and deficit production respectively.

156. An attempt to take care of point a) has been made in the study on "Agricultural Zoning"!/ and in "Recommendations of the Symposium on the Develop-ment of Agriculture in Jordan" 2/. Also, a project to limit the area under wheat to those zones where average rainfall precipitation seems adequate and to shift the rest of the land under wheat to barley cultivation or to pastures is being studied. Point b) will be considered in what follows and point c) in the second part of this chapter.

157· The instability of production of food crops with years of excess production and others of severe shortages leading to famines in the most vulnerable regions of the world was at the base of many of the items discussed in the World Food Conference held in November 1974. It was then decided that "A Global Information and Early Warning System on Pood and Agriculture" be established in FAO.

158. Crop failure can have serious repercussions on the economy as well as on the food situation in the country and only through an early warning system can the authorities take appropriate measures in time to ensure the availability of sufficient food crops and their equitable distribution. On the other hand, timely information on bumper harvests will permit the formulation of policies of exports, prices, etc. Thus, information on production in fgood* as well as in »bad1 years is necessary. Therefore, the eystem to be established in the country is really an Early Forecast System, a system which would give, with a certain degree of confidence, an estimate of the production some time (a couple of months) before harvest.

y Report on Agricultural Zoning, 1974y Ministry of Agriculture, Amman

2/ General Report and Recommendations of the Symposium on the Development of Agriculture in Jordan 1974 (in Arabic), National Planning Council, Amman

Case Study of Jordan 113

159· To forecast production is not an easy task and it is naturally liable to errors. The magnitude of the error depends on the methodology used and on the variables taken into consideration. The forecast can be useful only if an order of magnitude of the probable error attached to it is known. This last condition together with the size of the probable error can differentiate between the dif-ferent methods of forecasting.

160. The most generally used methods for crop forecasting can be classified in the following groups:

1. Eye estimates of the area planted and observation of the state of health of the crop.

2. Sample surveys to estimate the area and objective measurements of the crop at a certain stage of its growth.

3. Statistical models in which production is correlated with a set of variables, the values of which can be made available some time before harvest.

161. The first group of methods imply the existence of a field organization, members of which would observe, estimate and report on:

- The area planted in absolute or relative terms (percentage of expected area)

- Condition of crop growth (colour, density, size, etc.)

- Degree of infections by insects and/or diseases.

The field personnel should keep the crop under watch during the growth period and report at least twice: once in the period between planting and the appearance of the heads and the second between crop maturing and harvesting. Naturally the observation and estimation errors made by the field personnel cannot be evaluated.

162. The second group of methods is more costly and can be carried only on a relatively small sample. Moreover, if the actual measurements of the size or weight of the crop are carried out before the crop is mature, which is normally the case, the measurements should be correlated to the size or weight of the crop at harvest time. To the sampling errors (which can be evaluated) must be added the error (or residual variation) due to the regression model. The total might be rather large.

163. The third group of methods is based on the assumption that production is highly correlated with a certain set of variables. It is obviously correlated with area and yield. It mi^it be correlated with the type of soil, the slope of the land, the climatic conditions: temperature, rainfall precipitation, etc. In order to construct an efficient model for crop forecasting, it is necessary to have at the start a long time-series of the different variables to be included in the model and in particular of those which are highly correlated with production. It is also necessary that those values of these variables corresponding to a particular year be known well in advance before harvest to enable the timely fore-cast of that year's production. In this group of methods the magnitude of the error is known in advance and confidence limits for the production, limits cor-responding to a given probability level, can be calculated.

164. A combination of different methods may improve the quality of the forecast. Thus, for example, area estimates can be obtained through eye estimation or sample surveys and the yield through a regression model correlating yield with

114 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

soil characteristics and climatic conditions. The system proposed hereafter for the forecast of wheat production in Jordan is based on i) an estimation of the wheat area which could be the one carried out by the Ministry of Agriculture through its field personnel or the one obtained through the yearly Agricultural Sample Survey carried out by the Department of Statistics; and on ii) a re-gression model relating wheat yield to successive monthly rainfall.

General meteorological analysis

165. Variations of the yields from year to year in the same area are generally due to weather conditions. However, other factors like the introduction of higher yielding varieties in a significant part of the area or the use of ferti-lizers, etc. may increase the yield. On the other hand, in different areas the variations may be due not only to weather conditions but also to differences between characteristics of the soil. If the relationship between yield and weather conditions is to be quantified, the variation due to these extraneous factors has to be eliminated or separated so that the remaining variation will be due only to weather conditions.

166. The main weather variables which have been taken into consideration in studies on yield forecasting are the following:

Rainfall intensity (in mm.) Number of days of rain Relative humidity Temperature (maximum, minimum and average) Number of days of sunshine.

167. Very important factors affecting yield and production, such as évapo-transpiration, total radiation, etc., we re not incorporated in the regression model used in the studies as no measurements were available corresponding to the areas on which data were collected on yield and production· This lack of infor-mation had to be accepted.

168. As weather conditions may influence yields over the whole growing season and in some cases even before sowing, the model would be more efficient if the growing season is sub-divided into phonological parts. However, if the area under study is large, these parts would differ from zone to zone within the area and only sub-division into calendar periods is feasible.

Analysis of the rainfall data in East Jordan

169. The rainfall data has been analysed in different ways in order to answer various queries like:

1. What pattern of rainfall is to be expected during a certain period (say 10 years) in the different agro-climatic zones, and in the arid zone in particular?

2. How far the decisions of farmers to sow or not to sow based on the observation of the intensity of early rainfalls can be justified and what is the cost of wrong decisions?

3. Does the variability of rainfall change according to the agro-climatic zones? Does it increase from north to south?

170. The yearly figures for rainfall from 32 meteorological stations in the eastern region of Jordan and covering a period of 17 years from 195^—59 0

Case Study of Jordan 115

1974-75 season 7 were analyzed and, as was to be expected, both the variation between stations and that between years were very highly significant as can be seen from Table 25.

171. Rainfall data covering a l l 62 stat ions in East Jordan (by months over the period from 1952-53 to 1974-75) were analyzed and classified according to the agro-climatic zones as given in'The Agricultural Atlas of Jordan'by the Ministry of Agriculture, 1973 and according to administrative sub-division. Table 2, Annex I , Part I I f gives the mean, standard deviation and coefficient of var ia-tion of rainfal l for each of the s ta t ions .

172. A study of the var iab i l i ty of rainfal l in time as measured by the coef-ficient of variation (100 x standard deviation/mean) according to the geographical position of the meteorological s tat ion shows that the var iab i l i ty increases from north to south. This can be easily seen from Table 26.

173. A similar study on the relationship between the var iab i l i ty and the inten-s i ty of rainfal l shows an inverse correlation. In fact , the coefficient of correlation between the mean and the coefficient of variation is equal to -.63» Table 27 i l l u s t r a t e s the s i tuat ion.

174. On the quite valid assumption that the frequency distr ibution of the inten-s i ty of ra infal l follows a Γ distr ibution and using the observed values of the mean and standard deviation to estimate the parameters of the dis tr ibut ion, a conceptual model for the probability distr ibution of rainfal l can be constructed. For each set of mean and standard deviations there is a corresponding table which could show in advance the probability that during a certain year the intensity of ra infal l l i e s between l imits fixed in advance. Such models or tables would answer the query 1 in paragraph 169.

175· F o r example, i f in a certain arid zone the observed mean value of rainfal l intensi ty i s 15Ο mm. and i t s standard deviation is 70 mm. the probability d i s -t r ibut ion would be:

Level of ra infa l l -50 50-99 100-199 150-199 200-249 250-299 300 + (in mm·) Probability .04 .22 .30 .22 .12 .06 .04 which means that over a period of 20 years one could expect that the intensity of ra infal l will be less than 100 mm. in five years, between 100-150 mm. in six years and higher than 25Ο mm. in two years. However, these are only expectations based on probabil i t ies and i t may happen that the actual occurrences differ from the expectations.

176. Table 3 , Annex I , Part I I f gives six different i l lus t ra t ions of such probability tables . They are based on the actual figures of meteorological stat ions situated in different zones: two in the arid zone, two in the marginal zone, one in the semi-arid zone and one in the semi-humid zone.

177. For the study of the relationship between early rainfal l and to ta l rainfal l the reference period i s as follows:

- Early rainfal l covers the period October-November-December of the agr i -agricultural year.

- Total ra infal l covers the to t a l period from October of the year N to May of the year N+1.

7 Data available to the Consultant before his v i s i t to Jordan

116 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

TABLE 24: WHEAT PRODUCTION (IN THOUSAND M.T.)

D i s t r i c t

I r h i d Balqa Aimman Karak Ma'an

Total East Jord I

1964

72.0 16.5 66.9 62.6

6.8

m 224.8

1973

18.8 4 .3

12.1 2.4

37.6

Ü +· 1964 Production K a t l ° 1973 Production

3.8 t imes 3.9 t imes 5.5 t imes

25.9 t imes

6.0 t imes

TABLE 25: ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE OF RAINFALL INTENSITY

Source of Variâ t ion

Between years Between s t a t i o n s I n t e r a c t i o n

Tota l

Sum of Squares

5 340 000 8 900 000 2 960 000

17 200 000

Degrees of Freedom

16 31

496

543

Mean Squares

333 750 354 840

5 970

F

56 *** ! 42 ***

TABLE 26: GEOGRAPHICAL VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL

Geographical p o s i t i o n

North North-Central South-Central South

S t a t i o n ' s code

4 1 , 43 , 44,and 51-71 45 , and 72-88 89-96 and 109 97-106

Average coe f f i c i en t of v a r i a t i o n (*)

29.2 ! 36.5 44.8 ! 5SM

TABLE 27: RELATION BETWEEN INTENSITY OF RAINFALL AND ITS COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION

I n t e n s i t y of Ra in fa l l (mm.)

Under 100 loo - 299 300 - 399 400 +

Coeff ic ient of v a r i a t i o n ($)

73 42 37 29

Case Study of Jordan 117

0 - 19 mm. 20 - 49 mm. 50 - 109 mm. 110 - 149 mm. 150 mm. +

0 - 9 9 mm 100 - 249 mm 250 - 449 mm 45Ο - 599 mm 6OO mm. -1-

178. The rainfall data utilized in the analysis related to the above mentioned meteorological stations and covered the period from October 1952 to May 1975· For this period, monthly figures of rainfall are available. Thus 1 38Ο pairs of values of early and total rainfalls were used in the analysis and the result showed the following:

Average early rainfall 90.1 mm. Standard deviation of early rainfall 59· 2 mm. Average total rainfall 327.2 mm. Standard deviation of total rainfall 187.0 mm. Coefficient of correlation .68

179· Using these five statistics as parameters in a two-dimensional probability distribution, we get the following conceptual distribution of the probability of very poor, poor, average, high and very high total rainfall for very poor, poor, average, high, and very high early rainfall. The terms very poor, poor, average, etc. were defined in the following way:

Early rainfall Total rainfall

very poor poor average hi^i very high

180. Referring to Table 13t Chapter 4» Part I, it can be seen that »very poor· early rainfall appears in 12 per cent of the cases and in only 2 per cent the total rainfall is 'average* or above average. Also, 'poor' early rainfall appears in 17 per cent of the cases and in only 6 per cent does the total rainfall reach an 1 average1 level or above.

Relation of meteorological variables to wheat production

181. As crop production is the result of the product of the harvested area under the crop and its yield per unit area, it is obvious that the variation in crop production from year to year depends on the variations in the harvested area and in the yield. These, in turn, depend on a number of different factors: economic (expected income), technical (use of improved seeds or fertilizers) and natural (meteorological variables).

182. The variation from year to year of these three dependent variables can be represented by the sum of:

1. a trend, generally a regular increase over time; in fact, such trends appear in the analysis of the data on world wheat production. Over the last 28 years (1948-1975) " ne harvested area shows an average yearly increase of 1.0 per cent, the yield per unit area an average yearly increase of 2.1 per cent and thus, an average yearly increase in wheat production of 3·1 per cent.

2. a random element, due in the first place to meteorological factors like those enumerated in paragraph 166 and maybe to other human factors like farmers' decisions to sow or not to sow, etc.

183. Data on Area, Yield and Production of Wheat in East Jordan were analyzed first for the trend over time. It was found that such a trend was not statistically significant and that the hypothesis of its existence was to be rejected. This means that there is no evidence that any of the three variables considered was increasing over time.

118 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

184. Before going into complicated multivariate analysis of the data, simple correlations between each couple of the relevant variables in Jordan (production, area, yield, total rainfall and temperature) were calculated. The correlation between temperature and the other variables was found to be statistically not significant and thus temperature was eliminated from the set of variables under study· On the other hand, the correlations between the other variables were very hi^ily significant. Table 28 shows the matrix of correlation coefficients between the four variables for East Jordan and also separately for each of the main wheat-producing districts: Trbid, Amman and Karak.

185. As these coefficients of correlation are based on 12 degrees of freedom, they would be significant at the . 95f ·99 send .999 levels (or significant, highly sig-nificant and very highly significant) if they were larger than .532, .661 and .78Ο respectively, and not significant if smaller than .532. This means that the probability that such coefficients of correlation appear, when in fact there is no correlation between the variables, is equal to 5 Pe r cent, 1 per cent and 1 per thousand respectively.

186. On this basis it is easily seen that:

1. The correlation between Production and Yield is very highly significant for East Jordan as a whole, Amman and Karak and highly significant for Irbid.

2. The correlation between Production and Area is very highly significant for East Jordan, highly significant for Amman and Karak and significant for Irbid.

3· The correlation between Production and Rainfall is very highly significant everywhere.

4. The correlation between Area and Yield is highly significant in East Jordan and Karak, significant for Amman and not significant for Irbid.

5· The correlation between Area and Rainfall is very highly sig^· nificant for East Jordan, highly significant for Amman and Karak but not significant for Irbid.

6. The correlation between Yield and Rainfall is very highly significant everywhere.

187. Another but less accurate way to study the correlation between the variables is through graphical representation. The more the variables move along parallel paths (increase and decrease together), the stronger is the correlation, the longer is the time series, and higher is the level of significance of the cor-relation. Table 4 and the corresponding Graph 2, Annex I, Part II, show the variations of Wheat Production, Area and Yield and Total Rainfall in East Jordan over the period 1961-75· It is clear that the different paths of these four variables are almost parallel.

188. Since these variations are almost parallel, the behaviour of the dependent variable can be predicted within certain limits when the behaviour of the independent variable is known. Thus, if a regression curve is fitted, the varia-tion of the independent variable around the regression line will be dampened down.

189. In order to illustrate this phenomenon, the standard deviation of each of the dependent variables is compared with the residual standard deviation after the separation of the variation due to the regression. Table 29 gives the means

Case Study of Jordan 119

of the variables and the different standard deviations (original and residual) for East Jordan.

19Ο. Given the high level of the correlation coefficients between these variables, the regression models which could be used to estimate the value of one of them, given the value of another,can be reduced to the most simple functional relation, namely the straight line y = a + ax. Using the data for East Jordan over the period 1961-75» su°h linear relations were calculated for each pair of the variables and they are given below:

1. Production (»000 N.T.) = -171.3 + 1.553 Area ('000 ha.) 2. Production » = - 29.8 + .2537 Yield (kg./ha.) 3. Production " = -113.6 + .6486 Rainfall (mm.) 4. Area (»000 ha.) = 135.1 + .0960 Yield (kg./ha.) 5. Area " = 90.0 + .2800 Rainfall (mm.) 6. Yield (kg./ha.) = -299 + 2.475 Rainfall (mm.)

191. These formulae, based on the period 196l-74t c a n he used to estimate the

value of Production, Area and Yield for 1975 o n "the assumption that the value of the dependent variable is known. The actual values of Production, Area, Yield and Rainfall in %1975 were 61.9 thousand M.T. , 140.1 thousand ha., 442 kg./ha. and 329 mm. respectively. Replacing these values in the right-hand side of the above equations, we get the respective estimations. Table 30 gives the actual value of the dependent variable and its estimated value accompanied by the standard devia-tion.

192. Graph 3f Annex I, Part II, shows the cloud of points representing the rela-tion between Yield and Rainfall in East Jordan, Irbid, Amman and Karak over the period 1961-75 an<* "the corresponding regression lines. It can be seen that the different regression lines are almost parallel with values of the slope varying from 2.1-2.5· The practical meaning of this slope is that, for the increase of one millimetre in the intensity of rainfall, the yield increases by 2.1-2.5 k£S· per ha. Also, the fact that the constant term is negative means that there is some kind of lower limit of the rainfall intensity under which the crop will be a complete failure. This lower limit varies in the different regions from 90 mm. to 120 mm.

193· Naturally, the estimation of the value of the dependent variable would be more precise i.e. its standard deviation will be still smaller if a simultaneous combination of the dependent variables is considered. However, the improvement would be almost negligible if the dependent variables are very high correlated.

Possibilities for stabilizing wheat production

194· The variability of wheat production in East Jordan (the coefficient of variation is of the order of 50 per cent) is due to the combination of a high variability of the harvested area and an extremely high variability of the yield per unit area. Generally, the area harvested is almost stable over time and more so the area sown. In East Jordan, this is not the case and the variability of the area (it is not known if the data refer to area sown or area harvested) as measured by the coefficient of variation, is of the order of 20 per cent. The variability of the yield (the coefficient of variation is 42 per cent) is mostly due to the variability of rainfall which has an average coefficient of variation of about 40 per cent and a large dispersion from 24 to 90 per cent.

195· The variation in wheat area in Sast Jordan may be due to the following decisions of the farmer, decisions based on intuition or experience:

120 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

TABLE 28: CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS BETWEEN PRODUCTION, AREA, YIELD AND TOTAL RAINFALL IN EAST JORDAN ( 1961-74)

Var i abl e s î ï T " — - ^ correlat ion

Production : Production : Production î Area : Area : Yield :

Area

Yield Area Rainfall Yield Rainfall Rainai 1

Total East Jordan

.985

.809

.944

.756

.783

.928

Irbid

.958

.582

.838

.352

.519

.802

Amman

. 9 7 2

. 7 4 6

. 9 2 8

. 5 8 8

.761

. 8 6 3

Karak

. 9 8 5 I

. 7 6 9 !

. 835 !

. 6 9 8

. 6 8 2 i

. 845

TABLE 29: MEAN, STANDARD DEVIATION AND RESIDUAL STANDARD DEVIATION

Mean Standard Deviation (S.D.) S.D. a f ter regression with area S.D. after regression with y i e l d S.D. af ter regression with ra in fa l l

Production »000 M.T.

135.8 70.8 43.3 12.6 24.2

Area »000 ha.

197.8 36.9

26.8 23.9

Yield | kg . /ha .

653 275

107

TABLE 30s COMPARISON OF ESTIMATED AND ACTUAL VALUES OF THE VARIABLES

Dependent variable

Production »000 M.T.

Production »000 M.T.

Production •000 M.T.

Area »000 ha.

Area »000 ha.

Yield kg . /ha .

Independent variable

Area

Yield

Rainfall

Yield

Rainfall

Rainfall

Actual value

61.9

61.9

61.9

140.1

140.1

442

Estimated value

12.4

82.3

93.2

177.5

179.4

491

Standard devia-t i o n of estima-ted value

43.3

12.6

24.2

26.8

23.9

107

Case Study of Jordan 121

- on the basis of very poor rainfall in October and November, the farmer might decide not to sow at all or to sow and await further developments;

- on the basis of poor rainfall up to January, having already sown he might decide not to fertilize;

- on the basis of partial or complete failure of the crop, he might decide not to harvest.

196. These decisions may or may not be justified from the point of view of the farmer but they definitely affect the total production of the country and are thus detrimental from the national point of view. To evaluate the effect and the cost of such decisions to the farmer as well as to the country, the following elements have been utilized:

1. The joint probability distribution of early rainfall and total rainfall as given in paragraph 179·

2. The cost of wheat production per ha. which varies from 14 to 30 J.D. (a Jordanian Dinar is approximately equal to U.S.S3) according to the agro-climatic zone and to the type of agricultural machinery used. The average cost is taken to be 20 J.D. of which at least 5 J.D. is the cost of the material inputs (seeds) etc.

3· The price received by the farmer: about 35 J«D· per M.T.

4. The expected yield as calculated from the regression formula of yield and total rainfall - paragraphs 192 and Graph 3, Annex I, Part II.

197· From 2 and 3 above, it is easily seen that wheat production is profitable to the farmer if the yield is of the order of 600 kg./ha. and would be a great loss if the yield was below 300 kg./ha. More precisely the cost/prof it ratio to the farmer, in the case where he does not sow on the basis of very poor or poor early rainfall, can be calculated in the following way:

Cost economised in not sowing 20 J.D. Σρ. y. Loss of profit = expected value of harvest = x 35 J«D·

th where p. is the i interval of total rain for very poor, or

poor early rainfall and y. is the corresponding expected yield.

The expected yield when early rain is very poor is equal to

.039 x 200 + .017 x 550 + «002 x 1000 β 158 k

.121

and the corresponding expected loss of profit is 158 x 35 - 5·530 J.D. Similarly, the expected yield when the early rain is poor is

.072 x 200 + .055 x 550 + «002 x 1000 ΟΩΩ . ** " * 299 kg.

.171 and the corresponding expected l o s s of profit i s 299 x 35 = IO.46O J.D. Both amounts are much smaller than the amount economised through not sowing.

198. On the other hand, the l o s s t o the country i s equal to the amount of wheat which was not produced and should be imported. This amount i s equal to 158 kg.

122 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East for each ha. which was not sown when early rain was very poor and is equal to 299 kg. for each ha. which was not sown when early rainfal l was poor.

199· In order to s tabi l ize wheat production in East Jordan, two l ines of action could be recommended. The f i r s t and most important is to limit rain-fed wheat cultivation to those areas where the average rainfal l intensity i s high enough to justify the growing of wheat in the area, i . e . where the expected yield i s at a level profitable to the farmer. The second i s to encourage the farmers in those areas to sow even when early rainfal l is poor, through some kind of guarantee of a decent income to the farmer (s tate subsidies or some kind of insurance system).

200. The selection of the rain-fed areas for wheat cult ivation can be based on the probability distr ibution of rainfall intensity as given in Table 3, Annex T, Part I I , and on the relationship between yield and rainfal l as expressed by the regres-sion formulae in paragraph 192. The expected yield of wheat is equal to Ep.y. where p. is the probability in the i^n interval of rainfal l intensity 1 χ

(Table 3»Annex I , Part I I) and y. i s the coressponding expected yield (from para-graph 192 and Graph 3» Annex I , Part I I ) .

201. The expected yield for each of the i l l u s t r a t ive cases in Table 3f Annex I , Part I I , has been calculated and is given below:

Area Expected Yield

Arid zone with average rainfal l 100 mm, 46 kg./ha. Arid zone with average rainfal l 150 mm. 133 kg./ha. Marginal zone with average rainfal l 200 mm. 241 kg./ha. Marginal zone with average rainfal l 300 mm. 472 kg./ha. Semi-arid zone with average rainfal l 400 mm. 757 kg./ha.

202. Prom the above i t i s clear that wheat cult ivation could not be recommended in areas where the average rainfal l is below 200 mm. Even then the yield, in areas where the average rainfal l intensity is 200 mm., i s not profitable and i t might be bet ter to raise the limit to areas where the rainfal l intensity is above 25Ο mm,

Elements and application of an early warning system

203. For the forecast of wheat production and the establishment of an early warning system, the two components of the production: area under crop and yield, have to be estimated at an early date. In general, the estimation of the area under wheat i s an integral part of the national system for the collection of agr i -cultural s t a t i s t i c s and the information is readily available early during the growing season. This just i f ied the emphasis put on the analysis of the effect of the meteorological variables on yield and the search for efficient methods to forecast i t s value.

204. Since the growth of wheat i s affected not only by the to t a l amount of pre-cipi tat ion but also by the distr ibution of rainfal l over the growing season, the analysis of the effect of rainfal l on yield has been carried out on the basis of multiple regression models where the dependent variables are the rainfal l intensity in different periods of the year. This should improve the quality of the analysis and resul ts and, moreover i t permits the forecasts to be carried out in steps: after the f i r s t period, then after the second period, e tc .

205· For yield forecasting, the rainy season which goes from October of one year to May of the following year was su.b-divided into periods in two different ways. The f i r s t was to sub-divide i t into 3 periods:

Case Study of Jordan 123

Early rainfal l covering the period October-November-December Mid-rainfall covering the period January-February Late rainfall covering the period March-April-May

The second was to sub-divide it into monthly periods; however the rainfal l during the month of October, which is almost negligible, was added to that of November and, similarly the rainfal l during the month of May was put together with that of the month of April.

206. For the study of the effect of ra infal l on yield according to the three periods of occurrence of the rainfal l (early, mid, l a t e ) , the detailed data on yield and monthly intensity of the rainfal l by sub-dis tr ic ts were u t i l i zed . Unfortunately, the time-series was a short one covering only the period 1971-741 however the data (48 sets) were sufficient to draw some valid inferences. The basic s t a t i s t i c s derived from the 48 sets of figures are given in Table 31.

207. The multiple regression analysis of the dependent variables Y (the yield) on the three independent variables: x (early r a in fa l l ) , x~ (mid-rainfall) and x ( la te ra infal l ) was done by steps. First the independent variables which had

the greatest effect on the yield, then the two most effective independent variables and last the three independent variables together. The resul ts of the analysis are shown in Table 32.

208. The improvement on the result obtained when the yield is simply correlated with to ta l rainfal l i s very s l ight . In fact , the l inear regression of the yield on to t a l rainfal l gives for the correlation ooefficient and the residual standard deviation the values .8201 and 183.4 respectively.

209· However, for forecast purposes i t i s useful to be able to determine within certain confidence l imits the expected yield as soon as possible. On the basis of the above resul ts i t seems that t h i s could be done early in March when the inten-s i ty of the rainfal l in the period October-February becomes known. In such a case the regression plane would be:

Y = 29Ο.5 + 2.625 x1 + 1.374 x2

210. The above analysis and resul ts covering the three rainfal l periods were based on the original data available to the Consultant before his v i s i t to Jordan and the computations were not repeated after his return. He then concentrated his work on the analysis by monthly periods and limited i t to the three main wheat producing d i s t r i c t s , Irbid, Amman and Karak, and to the to t a l for East Jordan, and covered the period 1961-74· Data on the year 1975 were kept aside and were used to tes t the method and evaluate the precision of the forecast.

211. The parameters in a forecasting model are generally estimated on the basis of long-time series of the independent and the dependent variables. These variables may be direct readings or observations or they could be a combination of a set of data t reated in a certain way. In the use of the model to forecast a certain event, the values of the dependent variables to be substituted in the model must come from the same source and should have been t rea ted in the same way as were t reated the original data in constructing the model. For t h i s reason, the type of data used and the way in which they were t reated for constructing the regression models are given hereafter.

212. The source of the data on wheat yield i s the Ministry of Agriculture, Depart-ment of Agricultural Economics and they are mostly based on wheat area and produc-t ion data published in the Agricultural Atlas of Jordan. The sources of the ra in-fa l l data are the readings of the meteorological s ta t ions . The data have been processed in the following way:

124 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

1. The meteorological stations correlated with the wheat growing areas in each district were identified.

2. Simple averages of the monthly rainfall for the years from 1961-75 were calculated over the relevant meteorological stations in the district.

3· Weighted averages, over the districts, of the monthly rainfall for the period for 1961-75 were calculated for East Jordan. The weights used in the average were sensibly proportional to the average wheat area in the districts: 10, 8, 5, 2, and 1 for Trbid, Amman, Karak, Balqa and Ma1an respectively.

213. The code numbers of the meteorological stations correlated with wheat pro-duction areas in the five districts of East Jordan are given below. For the identification of the stations and the mean intensity of the corresponding rain-fall see Table 2, Annex I, Part II.

Irbid : 43, 56, 59, 64, 66, 67, 68, 71, 74, 76 Amman : 77, 78, 79, 82, 85, 86, 87 Karak : 92, 94, 95, 97 Balqa : 45, 80, 81 Ma· an : 101, 102, 103

214. Tables 5A, 5B, 5C, 5D, 5E and 5F in Annex I, Part II, give the resulting basic data (yield and monthly rainfall) over the period 1961-75 separately for East Jordan and for each of the five districts into which it is sub-divided.

215. The multiple regression surfaces representing the yield as a function of the set of monthly rainfall was constructed by steps and analyzed in two different ways. The first was on the basis of the importance of the effect of the dependent variable (rainfall during a specific month) on the independent variable (yield) irrespective of the chronological order. The second was based on the chronological order of the dependent variable.

216. In the first case a straight line involving only one, and the most important, rainfall month (the most important in the sense that it reduced the variance of the yield more than the rainfall of any other month) was constructed. Then a two-dimensional plane involving the two most important months was constructed and so on. This technique is useful in the case where simple mathematical models based on a few dependent variables (not necessarily in a specific order) are to be utilized for the estimation or forecasting of the independent variable.

217. In the second case, the successive regression surfaces: straight line, two-dimensional plane, three-dimensional plane, etc. are constructed by introducing in succession the dependent variables in their chronological order: rainfall in November, then rainfall in December, followed by rainfall in January and so on. This technique permits the estimation or forecasting of the dependent variable successively at the end of different periods during the growing season. Thus, a first forecast of the yield could be done in February and then another in April or May, etc.

218. In Annex I, Part II four sets of formulae are given with results correspon-ding to the three main wheat producing districts Irbid, Amman and Karak and to East Jordan. In each set, three different groups of formulae are given together with the corresponding Multiple Correlation Coefficient R, the Yield forecast for the year 1975 and its Standard Deviation.

Case Study of Jordan 125

219. The first group is based on the successive Multiple Regression Surfaces of yield on the rainfall by months using the chronological order:

Y = a + a. N o 1

Y = a + a, N + a0 D o \ ά

y = a + a. N + a2 D + a. J + a. F + ÉL M + a/ A

where IT, D, J , Pf Mf and A are the values of the rainfal l intensity during the months of November, December, January, February, March and April respectively.

220. The second group is based on the successive Simple Regression l ines of yield on the cumulative rainfal l intensity also in chronological order:

Y = a + a, N o 1

Y = a + a, (N + D) o 1 v '

Y r r a + a , ( N + D + J + F + M + A) o 1 x '

221. The th i rd is the formula of the plane based on the two most effective rain-fa l l months. These were found to be the months of December and January in a l l the d i s t r i c t s and also in East Jordan;

Y = a + a „ D + a 0 J o 1 2

222. As an i l l u s t r a t ion , Table 33 gives the different types of forecasts for the yield in East Jordan in 1975 based on the knowledge of the yield and the monthly rainfal l intensi ty during the period 1961-74· The value of the forecast i s accompanied by i t s standard deviation and the month in which the forecast could have been carried out (an early forecast in February and a second one in May) and also, for comparison reasons, the actual value of the yield as observed in 1975 and i t s standard deviation.

223· The conclusions that can be drawn from the study of the r e su l t s , values of the yield forecast and i t s standard deviation are the following:

1. The successive regression surfaces in a l l cases reduce gradually the variance of the yield forecast to almost half i t s original value and consequently reduce the standard deviation of the yield to about txtfo-thirds of i t s original value.

2. Although Multiple Correlation Coefficient due to the regression of rainfal l by months is almost systematically higher than the corresponding simple coefficient of correlation based on cumula-t ive ra infa l l the reduction in the value of the standard deviation in the l a t t e r i s , in general, larger than in the former. This is due to the fact that the number of degrees of freedom on the basis of which the standard deviations are calculated is decreasing by one unity for every month included in the multiple regression formula while i t is kept constant for the successive formulae based on cumula-t ive ra in fa l l . This may not be the case if the time-series were much longer.

126 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

TABLE 31: MEANS, STANDARD DEVIATIONS AND COEFFICIENTS OF CORRELATION BETWEEN THE YIELD AND EARLY, MID, LATE AND TOTAL RAINFALL

Variables

Yield (kg . /ha . ) Early ra infa l l (mm.) Mid-rainfall (mm.) Late ra infa l l (mm.) Total ra infa l l (mm.)

Mean

761.5 94.9

161.4 107.2 363.8

Standard deviat ion

317.1 67.8

112.1 80.8

158.4

Coefficient of correlat ion of y i e l d with ra in fa l l

.6326

.5685

.2883

.8201

TABLE 32s MULTIPLE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT AND RESIDUAL STANDARD DEVIATION OF YIELD

Independent variables

X1 x1 and x 2

x 1 , x 2 and x

and the regression

Y = 177.9 + 2.202 x

L _ i

Multiple correlat ion coe f f i c i en t s

.6326

.7944

.8354

Residual standard deviation(R.S.D.)

248.2

196.7

180.2

super-plane corresponding to the las t case 1

+ I.589 x 9 + 1.102 x

_ii

Rates of R.S.D. j t o or ig inal S.D.

78 per cent

62 per cent

57 per cent

i s

TABLE 33: FORECASTING THE YIELD OF WHEAT IN EAST JORDAN IN 1975

Basis of forecast and month

Multiple regression on r a i n f a l l in November, December and January separately (February)

Linear regression on cululat ive ra in-f a l l in November + December + January

(February)

Multiple regression on ra in fa l l in December and January separately

(February)

Multiple regression on ra in fa l l by months from November t o April separately (May)

Linear regression on t o t a l ra infa l l (May)

Forecast Value S.D.

383

393

384

475

514

189

181

180

139

107

Actual y i e l d Value S.D.

424 275

Case Study of Jordan 127

3. The best periods for forecasting the Yield of Wheat on the basis of Rainfall in East Jordan are:

(i) a preliminary forecast immediately after the intensity of the rainfall in January is known, i.e. during the month of February;

(ii) a final forecast can then be calculated during the month of May when the monthly rainfall intensity over the whole rainy season (or almost) is available.

Essence of the Food Security Problem

224. Wheat being the staple food product in Jordan, on the of the main objectives of a Food Security Plan is to make available in time the quantities of wheat and wheat products necessary to cover the demand for these products in the different districts of the country. Thus, the supply must be readily available on the spot whenever the demand for the products is expressed.

225. A national system of Food Security can be based on:

1. Some policy measures to stabilize wheat production, i.e. to reduce the very high level of instability of wheat production as it exists now;

2. The establishment of an early warning or forecasting system which would give in advance some information on the expected level of production;

3. A reasonable long or medium-term policy of imports to cover the difference between the expected demand and the expected production;

4. A stock policy to cover the residual instability of production.

226. On 1 above: the problem of stabilizing wheat production, a section of this chapter has been devoted to this problem and some suggestions and recommendations were offered in paragraphs 199-202. Also, a section of this chapter was devoted to 2 and several sets of formulae for the forecast of wheat yields were offered; while 3 will be considered in this section and 4 in the following sections.

227· Wheat cultivation in East Jordan is rain~fed(less than 5 Per cent of the area is irrigated) and its production does not and cannot cover the demand in the near future even in the most favourable conditions. The wheat area is not to be increased, on the contrary, it is planned to reduce it and keep it limited to those regions where the yield is expected to be good or at least average. Also, it is not very probable that the yield will increase in a spectacular way. Thus, to satisfy the demand, imports of wheat and wheat flour must be planned in such a way as to cover at least the difference between demand and production. A larger volume of imports may be necessary if some kind of stock policy is to be intro-duced and implemented.

228. Presently, the sources of supply of wheat and wheat flour, apart from the local wheat production are:

- commercial imports - U.S. Public Loan PL 48Ο - grants and donations (UNRWA, HSMC, WFP, etc.)

128 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

and the total amount of wheat and wheat flour imported under these titles during the last 15 years is approximately equal to the total amount of wheat produced locally during the same period. More precisely, during the three years 19739 1974 and 1975 (*wo of which had crop failures) the total local production was 38 000 M.T., 227 000 M.T., and 62 000 M.T. respectively and the corresponding total import figures were 167 000 M.T., 135 000 M.T., and 207 000 M.T. sub-divided according to the above titles into: 201 000 M.T. purchased, 192 000 M.T. donated, and 116 000 M.T. received under PL 480.

229· This heavy dependence of Jordan for its wheat supply on donations and loans makes it doubly important to plan ahead a policy of imports and storage in order not to be faced with situât ions in which urgent action is to be taken at a very high cost. These donations, grants or loans have been readily available in the past due to the particular political and economical situation of Jordan and also to the troubled state of affairs in the Near East. However, nobody can give any assurance that this availability of donations, etc. will go on for a long time in the future especially now that the political situation seems to be changing and that the Near East problems are on their way to a solution.

23Ο. Commercial imports present two problems: a problem of logistics and a prob-lem of favourable (unfavourable) world market conditions and prices. These problems make it imperative to plan in advance import policies in order to avoid the risk of delays in delivery creating a severe famine situation and also to avoid the risk of paying too high a price for the product.

231. In fact, imports are generally ready to be delivered by the country of origin about one month after the order has been placed. To this delay is to be added the delay due to the availability or not of transport facilities and the time necessary for the transport itself from the country of origin to the appro-priate port in Jordan. Then come the problems of storage in the port, transport to the stricken areas and distribution.

232. World market prices are very sensitive to the world production and stock situation and they have suddenly increased (or decreased) on many occasions in the last few years. Differences of more than U.S.$ 20 per M.T. of wheat are quite common and, a last minute order for some 100 000 M.T. of wheat may cost the country an extra two million dollars or more.

233· On the assumption that wheat production in Jordan is not correlated with either the world wheat production or the production in North America (if it were, the probabilities given below will be larger), the probability that a certain deficit in wheat production in Jordan occurs simultaneously with a poor world wheat production or a poor North American wheat production has been calculated and is given in Table 34· World wheat production was defined as 'poor1 when the world deficit was above or equal to 5 Per cent of the expected production, expec-ted from the trend function. Similarly, North American production was defined as 'poor1 when the deficit was above or equal to 10 per cent of its expected production.

234· In order to formulate a medium-term policy of wheat and flour imports, it is necessary to evaluate the expected theoretical wheat production, and the demand for wheat and wheat products for each year of the plan. Moreover, according to the type of stock policy to be implemented, the amounts to be imported to build-up stocks are to be determined.

235· Data on either global or per capita demand for East Jordan and for the period under consideration ( 1961-74) are not available. For this reason a first assump-tion was made namely: that during the period the demand was satisfied and that the

Case Study of Jordan 129

total supply covering the period is practically equal to the total demand except for the difference in stocks between what existed in stock at the beginning of the period (19°Ί) and what was left over at its end (1974)· This difference can be safely ignored as it can only be very small in comparison with the total supply over the 14 years under consideration·

236. Another difficulty was the fact that supply, which consists mainly of pro-duction plus the difference between imports and exports, cannot be easily divided between East and West Jordan during the years 1961-66. Data on production sep-arately for the two regions are available for this period but not the data on imports. Thus, it was felt that data on the per capita basis could be more amen-able to analysis and, therefore, the data used in the study relates to the two regions for the period 1961-66 and to East Jordan for the period 1967-74.

237. The analysis of the per capita data of supply (or demand) shows that there is no significant trend and that the average yearly per capita demand (in grain equivalent) is approximately 150 kg. sub-divided into 135 kg. for human consump-tion, 8 kg· for seeds and some 7 kg. waste.

238. The assumption that the per capita increase in demand is of the order of 3.8 per cent yearly as shown in the figures given by the Planning Authority of the Ministry of Agriculture cannot be accepted. A more reasonable assumption, namely 1 per cent every two years, is given in the publication Demand and Supply Estimations and Projections of Wheat in Jordan. Another acceptable assumption is the one made for the projection of the population giving the yearly rate of increase as 3.1 per cent. Thus, for projections of the demand and supply of wheat, it will be assumed that the yearly rate of increase in demand is equal to .035 and, if food security is to be guaranteed, the rate of increase of supply should be also equal to .035·

239· The demand in the year 1976 has been estimated at 300 000 M.T. and the , demand in the subsequent years will, therefore, be equal to 300 000 M.T. (1.035) where t = 1, 2, 3f .···· corresponds to the order of the year under consideration. The average production in East Jordan in the period 1961-74 was 135 800 Μ·Τ. and it was proposed in the Report on Agricultural Development to increase it by 36 000 M.T. during a period of four years. This implies a yearly rate of increase of about 6 per cent which seems to be too optimistic. A rate of increase of 3-4 per cent is more realistic and will be used hereafter.

240. Now, since wheat production is much lower than demand of wheat in Jordan, the production has to be supplemented by a policy of imports. The quantity to be imported each year must be equal to the difference between the demand and the expected theoretical production irrespective of the climatic and other factors which affect the yield and hence the production. These quantities are shown in Table 35.

Range of stocking policy options

241. The policy and volume of wheat imports as presented above are not enough to solve the problem of food security in Jordan as they have been based on the theoretical mean production irrespective of the variations due to climatic and other factors. In order to offset the large year-to-year fluctuations in input which occur and will continue to occur in the fuibure (even if actions to stabilize production are taken) and also in order to maintain a steady expansion of consump-tion, a policy of keeping an adequate level of wheat stocks is necessary.

130 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East 242. In the past, the concept of storage and stock-keeping in Jordan (and also in other parts of the world) was based on the need to cover the period at the end of the agricultural year (some two months before the new crop is harvested) when the farmers1 and traders1 stocks are almost exhausted. Thus, the storage capacity was taken to be equivalent approximately to two months consumption.

243· In Jordan the stores were also meant to receive the imported wheat and wheat flour and keep i t unt i l i t was distributed for consumption. Since the imports did not arrive during one single period of the year, the stores were used ( re -plenished then emptied) twice during the year. For th i s reason the order of mag -nitude of the capacity needed was considered to be equal to one-half of the imports· The stocks were generally consumed within six months or at most within the year following the i r acquisition.

244· The present si tuation of storage capacity in Jordan i s 66 800 M.T. sub-divided as follows:

Silos capacity Other storage capacity Ministry of Supply UNHWA and HSMC Private sector

5 000 N.T.

7 800 » 14 000 » 40 600 »

Other storage f ac i l i t i e s under construction or to be constructed in the near future are:

Silos 40 000 M.T. Other stores 65 000 "

245· A stock policy which was recommended in the recent past consisted in the keeping, at the beginning of each year, a stock sufficient to cover the possible deficit in production during that year. This implies that after a bad (defici t ) year, the stock is to be reconstituted to i t s previous level ( i f not to a higher level to cover the natural increase in demand). This may not be very practicable especially if the deficit i s world-wide and becomes more so if there i s a run of deficit years.

246, The set of al ternative Stock Policies proposed hereafter may be called ' Stock-and-Rationing Policies' or 'Stock-and-Allocat ion-Policies' as they deal at the same time with both the cases of a surplus or a deficit in production or supply. In the case of a surplus, a part of the t o t a l i t y of the surplus i s to be added to the stocks]/ and in the case of a def ic i t , a part or the t o t a l i t y of the deficit i s to be made up from stocks.

247· Moreover, a stock policy has to be planned on a medium—term basis (a number of years < 10) and i t should present a certain guarantee of success. The succ of the policy means that during the specified period the stock will never be negative, i . e . there will always be enough quantity in stock to cover the com-mitted part of the def ic i t .

248. The possibi l i ty of implementing these stock-and-allocation-policies implies the existence of the following pre-requisi tes:

1. An agency with enough authority over the area of application of the policy to enforce i t especially during the years of surplus produc-t ion , i . e . the collection and putting into stock that part of sur-plus production envisaged in the scheme.

7 Since wheat and wheat products are perishable? old stock should be consumed and replaced by the current year 's production or imports.

Case Study of Jordan 131

2. Adequate transport f a c i l i t i e s to permit the distr ibution over the area of the part of the deficit taken out of stocks.

3. Adequate storage f a c i l i t i e s , the capacity of which should be large enough in order to cover a run of good (surplus) years.

249· Stock policies are decided upon by the authori t ies on the basis of economic, pol i t ica l and practical considerations and they vary according to the primary objective which may be:

1. To satisfy completely the demand in a l l circumstances which implies that there will be no rationing whatever be the supply.

2. To satisfy par t ia l ly the demand in the case of a deficit and permit more consumption in the case of a surplus.

3. To limit price variations due to a deficit or a surplus in the supply.

4. To build-up stocks or replenish them when they are almost exhausted.

There are different types of policies to satisfy the above primary objectives which are discussed hereunder.

25Ο. The f i r s t type take into account the fact that in good (surplus) years the actual consumption will generally be hi^ier than the expected ( theoretical) demand and thus i t will not be possible to put the t o t a l i t y of the surplus into stocks whilet in bad (defici t) years, the consumption will be below the expected demand and i t i s not necessary to make up a l l the deficit from stocks. Thus, in th i s type of policy the quantity to be put to stocks will be a fixed fraction (e.g. four-fifths) of the t o t a l surplus and also the quantity to be taken from stocks will be also a fixed fraction (e.g. three-quarters) of the to ta l def ic i t . These fractions can be equal or unequal and can take any value between 0 and 1. When the two fractions are equal to 1, the demand i s always fully sa t isf ied.

251. In the second type, one of the objectives i s to contain the price variations of the commodities within a pr ior i fixed l imi ts . I t i s assumed that i f the surplus or the deficit i s below a certain acceptable limit (e .g. 20 000 M.T.) the effect on the market prices or on the consumption could be ignored and, in such cases, there will be no action to be taken by the stock-and-allocation authority, i . e . no changes in the stocks. In the case where the deficit or the surplus i s above the acceptable l imi t , the following action i s to be taken:

1. Case of def ic i t : make up from stocks the difference between the t o t a l deficit and the fixed l imit .

2. Case of surplus: put to stocks the difference between the to t a l surplus and the fixed l imit .

This means that the difference between supply and demand will always be smaller or at most equal to t h i s a pr ior i fixed l imit .

252. The th i rd type of policies are especially adapted to si tuations in which stocks are to be constituted from scratch or when stocks are almost exhausted and i t i s necessary to replenish them. In t h i s type of policy, the part of the supply allocated for consumption, whether in surplus or deficit years, i s always kept at a level below the actual demand. This s i tuat ion i s equivalent t o : putting every year into stocks the t o t a l i t y of the production and dis tr ibut ing every year out

132 Food Secur i ty Issues in the Arab Near East of s tocks t h e quan t i ty f ixed in advance ( e . g . 140 kg. per c a p i t a i n s t ead of t h e requested 150 k g . ) .

253· The p r o b a b i l i t y of success of a s t ock -and -a l l oca t i on po l i cy depends on:

1. The parameters determining t h e behaviour of t h e supply and demand func t ions : r a t e of i n c r e a s e , measure of i n s t a b i l i t y of product ion, e t c .

2. The parameters in t he type of po l i cy t o be implemented: t h e two f r a c t i o n s in p o l i c i e s of t h e f i r s t t y p e , t h e f ixed l im i t in p o l i -c i e s of t he second type and t h e d i f fe rence between t h e amounts suppl ied and t h e demand in p o l i c i e s of t h e t h i r d t y p e .

3 . The s torage capac i ty and the i n i t i a l s tock .

254. The parameters in 1 above have been determined and were given in paragraphs 238, 239 and 24Ο. The parameters in 2 above are t o be decided upon by the au thor -i t i e s on the b a s i s of t h e cost of t he po l icy and t h e l eve l of confidence in i t s success . With regard t o 3 above, i t i s necessary t o point out t h a t the present s torage capaci ty i s too small for t h e p r o b a b i l i t y of success of any of t he medium-term stock p o l i c i e s given above t o be accep tab le . Given t h e high l eve l of i n s t a b i l i t y of product ion in Jordan and, in order t o secure t h e success of a s tock po l i cy , t he magnitude of t h e s torage capac i ty should be of t h e order of 300 000 M.T, The present i n i t i a l s tock i s almost n i l and t o bu i ld -up s t o c k s , d i f f e ren t so lu t ions can be of fered:

- import immediately enough q u a n t i t i e s of wheat and/or wheat f lou r t o f i l l up t h e s t o r e s ;

- import cont inuously amounts of wheat and wheat products above t h e necessary l eve l (as given in paragraph 240) and s t o r e them;

- bu i ld-up gradual ly t h e s tocks through a po l i cy of t h e t h i r d t y p e .

Evaluat ion of a l t e r n a t i v e s tocking p o l i c i e s

255· The s i t u a t i o n of wheat product ion and consumption i n Jordan i s not t h e best one t o i l l u s t r a t e t h e importance of s tock ing p o l i c i e s for food s e c u r i t y i n a country for the fol lowing reasons :

- Jordan produces only about one-half of t h e wheat necessary t o cover t h e needs of i t s popula t ion . An equal amount o r more has t o be imported;

- t h e amounts imported are not a l l purchased; t h e l a r g e s t par t of the imports i s rece ived by Jordan as donat ions , g ran t s or loans under PL 480. Moreover, t h e a u t h o r i t i e s mi^it f e a r t h a t , i f s tocks a re c o n s t i t u t e d wi th in the count ry , t h e donors might reduce t h e i r con-t r i b u t i o n or even s top i t completely.

- s ince Jordan must import wheat i n a l l c i rcumstances , i t could always increase t h e amounts imported ( e i t h e r through an increase of t h e amounts purchased or by convincing t h e donors t o inc rease t h e i r con-t r i b u t i o n ) t o such a l eve l as t o ensure food s e c u r i t y .

256. However, i t might s t i l l be usefu l t o see how t h e country could organize i t s supply system and a s tocking po l i cy t o provide food s e c u r i t y at t he lowest c o s t .

Case Study of Jordan 133

Naturally, it has to be assumed that the cost to the country includes not only the commercial imports but also the values of the donations, grants, etc. calculated at market prices.

257· In the evaluation of the different systems and policies, the cost to the country of the scheme proposed will be always accompanied by a certain measure of its probability of success. The schemes will be reviewed hereafter in the order of their complexity.

258. The simplest scheme,which could be called a 'hand-to-mouth1 policy,consists of waiting until the wheat has been harvested and the production evaluated before putting orders of imports to cover the difference between the demand and the pro-duction. This has the advantage of importing only the exact amount needed but it has many disadvantages of which the following are the most important:

1. The delays in the procurement of wheat and wheat products may be too long and this may produce a situation of scarcity or even famine in certain vulnerable areas of the country.

2. The need for imports being urgent, the country will have to pay the prevalent market prices even if they are too high.

259· The next scheme consists in importing at the beginning of each year (or at the most favourable price-wise period during the wheat growing season) the so-called necessary imports as shown in paragraph 240, i.e. an amount equal to the difference between the demand and the theoretical production. These amounts were calculated irrespective of the climatic and other factors which affect the yield and therefore, there may still be the need to supplement the imports if the yield is below normal. Table 36 shows the probability of a deficit of a given magnitude. A deficit below 20 000 is insignificant compared with the total demand and could be ignored.

26Ο. A scheme based on the early warning and yield forecast system proposed in the first part of this chapter consists of the following:

1. Procure at the most favourable period the so-called necessary imports (paragraph 240).

2. After the first yield forecast (in March) and only if the fore-casted yield is below average, supplement the previous imports by an amount equal to the area multiplied by the difference be-tween the average and the forecasted yield.

3. After the second yield forecast (in May) and if the new forecast is below the first forecast again supplement the previous imports by the appropriate amount.

However, there might still be a deficit due to the standard deviation of the fore-cast (residual variance). The probability of a deficit of a certain magnitude in the two stages: after the first forecast and after the second forecast is shown in Table 37·

261. To illustrate the two schemes in paragraphs 259 and 260, the case of the 1975 wheat production and imports is considered:

134 Food Secur i ty Issues in the Arab Near East

TABLE 3 4 : PROBABILITY OF A CONTEMPORANEOUS DEFICIT IN JORDAN'S WHEAT PRODUCTION AND IN THE WORLD OR NORTH AMERICAN WHEAT PRODUCTION

Size of de f i c i t in Jordan

50 OOO M.T. 40 000 M.T. 30 000 M.T. 20 000 M.T.

Def ic i t in World produc-t i o n greater or equal to

5/0

4 . 9 1 5 . 8 / 0 6 . 9 *

10.0 %

Def ic i t i n North American production greater or

equal t o 105»

4.3 1 5.1 i 6.0 % 8.8%

TABLE 35: PROJECTED DEMAND, PRODUCTION AND IMPORTS

Year

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981

Demand in !000 M.T.

300.0 310.5 321.4 332.6 344.3 356.2

Expected produc-t i o n in «000 M.T.

I45.O 150.1 155.3 160.8 166.4 172.2

Necessary imports in Ό00 M.T.

I55.O 160.4 166.1 171.8 177.9 184.1

TABLE 36: PROBABILITY OF A DEFICIT CF A GIVEN MAGNITUDE

Magnitude of de f i c i t

i n M.T. < 2 0 000 20-40 000 40-60 000 60-80 000 80-100 000 >100 000

Probabil i ty 10$

A d e f i c i t below 20 000 i s ins igni f icant compared with the t o t a l demand and could be ignored

TABLE 37: PROBABILITY OF A DEFICIT OF A CERTAIN MAGNITUDE IN TWO STAGES

Magnitude of de f i c i t in

M.T.

Probabi l i ty of a d e f i c i t af ter 1st forecast

Probabil i ty of a d e f i c i t a f ter 2nd forecast

20-40 000

1 $

15$

40-60 000

1($

60-80 000

6$

4>

80-100 000

3$

2J6

>100 000

2$

Case Study of Jordan 135

- The demand for 1975, es t imated on t h e b a s i s of a popula t ion of 1 940 000 and an average consumption per c a p i t a of 150 k g · , i s equal t o 291 000 M.T.

- As the average product ion during t h e per iod 1961-74 i s 135 30° M.T., t h e necessary imports for t h a t year a re equal t o t h e d i f -ference or 155 200 M.T.

- The ac tua l p roduct ion , due t o crop f a i l u r e was only 61 900 N . T . , showing a d e f i c i t of 73 900 M.T. The p r o b a b i l i t y of occurrence of a d e f i c i t of t h a t magnitude or l a r g e r i s equal t o 19 per cent (paragraph 259).

- On the b a s i s of a f i r s t forecas t in February, t h e average expected y i e l d i s 386.7 kg . /ha . (see formulae and r e s u l t s for 1975 i n Annex I t Part I I . Assuming a wheat a rea known and equal t o 150 000 ha. , t h e fo recas ted product ion would be equal t o 58 000 M.T. showing a probable d e f i c i t of 77 800 M.T. t o be covered by supplementary im-p o r t s thus b r ing ing the t o t a l imports t o 233 000 M.T.

- The second forecas t in May shows a h igher y i e l d (average y i e l d of 494.5 k g . / h a . ) than i n t h e f i r s t forecas t and thus no supplementary imports are necessary .

262. Prom the above i t can be seen t h a t t h e r e a l d e f i c i t t o be covered was 229 100 M.T., and according t o t h e f i r s t scheme, t h e imports would have been only 155 200 M.T. f while according t o t h e second scheme, t h e imports would have been 233 000 M.T., and f i n a l l y t he amounts t h a t were a c t u a l l y imported (paragraph 228) were 207 000 M.T.

263. The two schemes in paragraphs 259 and 260 are based on a y e a r - t o - y e a r eva lua-t i o n of t h e needs in wheat imports and, consequently t h e s torage capac i ty needs only t o be equal t o t h e volume of t h e imports and, maybe equal t o one-half of t he imports i f t hese a re obta ined i n severa l shipments. For more s o p h i s t i c a t e d schemes based on medium-term s tock ing p o l i c i e s l i k e those given in paragraphs 25Ο, 251 and 252, t h e s i t u a t i o n i s qu i t e d i f f e ren t and the s torage capac i ty must be l a rge enough t o cover t h e i n i t i a l s tock and the d i f fe ren t pos s ib l e add i t i ons in t he case of a run of good harves t y e a r s . A reasonable s torage capac i ty would be equal t o about 4-5 "times t h e s tandard dev ia t ion of product ion . This i s equal t o approximately 280 - 350 000 M.T.

264· P r e s e n t l y , t h e s to rage f a c i l i t i e s i n Jordan have a capac i ty of 67 000 M.T. and s i l o s and s t o r e s a re under cons t ruc t ion t o b r i n g t h e t o t a l capac i ty t o 172 000 M.T. In order t o s a t i s f y the above p r e - r e q u i s i t e s for a medium-term stock p o l i c y , more s i l o s and o the r s t o r e s are t o be cons t ruc ted t o t h e capac i ty of 40 000 M.T. and 80 000 M.T. r e s p e c t i v e l y .

265. The investment cost of these additional storage f a c i l i t i e s w i l l be 2 800 000 J.D. for the s i l o s and 1 760 000 J.D. for the conventional s t o r e s . The operational cost for the whole system would be of the order of 300 000 J.D.

266. In order t o i l l u s t r a t e the working out of the sophis t icated p o l i c i e s given in paragraphs 250f 251 and 252f the two consecutive years 1974 and 1975 w i l l be taken as representative of a surplus and a de f i c i t year. The basic principle in these stock p o l i c i e s i s that the theore t i ca l supply (average production plus imports) must be equal t o the demand and, on t h i s b a s i s , the necessary importe as shown in paragraph 240 mast be acquired at the appropriate time during the cor-responding year. Thus i f the production daring the year i s above average, the production plus the necessary imports w i l l be above the demand and the year w i l l be considered as a year with a surplus supply. S imi lar ly , i f the production i s

136 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

below average, the supply will be below the demand and there will be a deficit in the supply during that year. Table 38 gives the basic data for the two years 1974 and 1975.

267. In policies of the first type, a fraction of (99 700 M.T.) the surplus of actual production over the expected production in 1974 will be put to stocks and, in 1975 a fraction of (73 900 M.T.) the deficit will be taken out of stocks. A reasonable fraction of the order of three-quarters in both cases would have meant that in 1975 75 000 M.T. will be put to stocks leaving a supply a little above the demand, while in 1975 56 000 M.T. will be taken out of stocks to cover the major part of the demand and in this case the supply will be very little below the demand.

268. In policies of the second type, it is assumed that a surplus or a deficit below a certain limit will not affect very much the prices or the consumption. Assuming this limit to be 35 000 M.T. (about 12 per cent of the demand) the action here is: in 1974 put in stocks about 65 000 M.T. (99 700 M.T. -35 000 M.T.) and in 1975 take out of stocks about 39 000 M.T. (73 000 M.T. -35 000 M.T.). If the sur-plus or deficit were below 35 000 M.T. no action would have been taken by the authorities (no changes in stocks).

269. In policies of the third type,the quantities to be put into stocks are equal to the surplus plus a certain amount fixed in advance and in cases of deficit, the amount to be taken out of stocks and distributed is equal to the deficit minus the same fixed amount. If this fixed amount is 20 000 M.T., in 1974 "the amount to be put in stocks would be 80 000 M.T. approximately, and in 1975 "the amount to be taken out of stock would be 54 000 M.T. An alternative formulation of this policy is to add the fixed amount to the necessary yearly imports and then to satisfy completely the demand: putting in stocks the totality of the surplus and taking out of stocks the totality of the deficit.

270. Although the choice of a stocking policy by the authorities depends primarily on economic, political and practical considerations, it is also important to take into consideration the possibilities of success or failure of the proposed policy. In order to help in this respect, the paper "Probability of Success of a1Stock and Allocation1Policy" was prepared /.

271· As an illustration, the probability of success of the three policies given in paragraphs 267f 268 and 269 have been calculated under three assumptions con-cerning the initial stocks namely: no initial stocks, 100 000 M.T. and 200 000 M.T. and for a medium-term period of five years. The results are given in Table 39·

y "Probability of Success of a »Stock and Allocation1 Policy", by J. B. Simaika, ESS/MISC/74 - 1, FAO September 1974

Case Study of Jordan 137

TABLE 38: BASIC DATA FOR THE TWO YEARS 1974 AND 1975

Demand Expected average production Necessary imports Actual pro dut ion Surplus or deficit from expected production Actual imports Actual total supply-Actual surplus or deficit

1974 (in M.T.

283 5OO 135 800 147 700 226 900 91 100 135 000 361 900 78 400

1975 (in M.T.)

291 000 135 800 155 200 61 9OO -73 900 207 000 268 900 22 100 I

TABLE 39

Description of policy Possibility of success

Case of surplus

3/4 of surplus put in storage

Surplus or deficit ] No <

Surplus>35 000 M.T.

Put in storage surplus 35 000 M.T,

Case of deficit

3/4 of deficit taken out of stocks

Less than 35 000 M.T. action

Deficit>35 000 M.T.

Take out of stocks deficit 35 000 M.T.

In "both cases of surplus or deficit years, make available the demand minus 20 000 M.T. through appropriate move-ments of stocks

Initial stock 200 000 M.T.

.925

.956

.939

Initial stock 100 000 M.T.

.763

.806

.776

Initial stock = 0

.312

.432

.434

Summary and Conclusions of Chapter 8

272. Pood securi ty in Jordan can only be ensured i f action i s taken in a number of different d irec t ions . The major actions are:

1. To s t a b i l i z e production or at l eas t to reduce i t s v a r i a b i l i t y .

2. To es tab l i sh an early warning or y i e l d forecast system·

3. To es tab l i sh a national pol icy of imports to cover the difference between the demand and the average production;

4 . To es tab l i sh a stock-and-al location po l icy .

273· The coverage of the study was l imited to wheat and wheat production in the dry farming areas of East Jordan. The weather variables used for y i e l d forecast ing were l imited to the monthly ra infa l l in t ens i ty s ince some weather variables were found s t a t i s t i c a l l y non-signif icant while t ime-ser ies data for the other variables were not avai lable . The probabi l i s t i c approach was used throughout in the analysis of the data and in the presentation of the r e s u l t s . Most of the resu l t s were accompanied by the corresponding standard deviation.

274· For such a study, long t ime-ser ies covering a variety of variables are needed. Very few were readi ly avai lable and reasonably accurate and most others were e i ther not avai lable or of very poor qual i ty . The needed data include:

1. Data on area sown and area harvested, separately by d i s t r i c t s , or be t ter s t i l l , by s u b - d i s t r i c t s ;

2. Data on the wheat area and y i e l d s according to the agro-cl imatic zones and according t o the slope of the land by d i s t r i c t s ;

3 . Data on the weather variables: ra infa l l in tens i ty and i t s d i s -t r ibut ion in time; re la t ive humidity, s o i l moisture and/or évapo-transpirat ion; temperature (maximum, minimum, average) and number of days of sunshine, e t c ;

4. Data on population, per capita consumption, e l a s t i c i t y of demand, pr i ces , e t c .

139

140 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

275. Rainfall intensity in East Jordan shows a very high variability in time and space. The coefficient of variation of different meteorological stations varies from 24 per cent to 90 per cent. The intensity of rainfall decreases from north to south while the variability increases,thus showing an inverse correlation between the intensity of rainfall and its coefficient of variation.

276. Early rainfall (rainfall during the months of October, November and December) is highly correlated with total rainfall r » .68. However, poor or very poor early rainfall may correspond to average or high total rainfall. In fact, in about one-sixth of the cases of very poor early rainfall, the total rainfall was average or high and in about one-third of poor early rainfall the total rainfall was average or above average. Thus, decisions not to sow on the basis of poor early rainfall may prove wrong in the long run once every three times.

277· Wheat production shows no increasing trend through time but a very high random variability with a coefficient of variability of 52 per cent. This is due to the variability of the wheat area (sown and/or harvested) with a coefficient of variability of about 20 per cent and a very high variability of the yield with a coefficient of variability of about 30 per cent. This very high variability can be reduced and the wheat production in East Jordan somewhat stabilized by eliminating the variability of the area through its limitation to those rain-fed zones where the average intensity of rainfall is high enough (25Ο mm. +) and also through sowing wheat in those zones even when early rainfall is poor. The limita-tion of the area sown to the regions where the intensity of rainfall is above a certain limit will also reduce the variability in the yield.

278. Wheat yields are highly correlated with the intensity and distribution of rainfall. The coefficient of correlation between yield and total rainfall for East Jordan is .93 and the regression line is Y « -300 + 2.48 R. The trend of the regression line means that, for every increase of 1 mm. of rainfall there is a corresponding increase of 2.48 kg. per ha. in the yield. Also, the negative constant term implies that no wheat production is to be expected if the rainfall intensity is below a certain lower limit, 120 mm. in the present case. For the different districts in which East Jordan is sub-divided the two constants above may differ slightly. In fact, the rate of increase of yield varies from 2.1 to 2.5 kg./ha. for an increase of 1 mm. of rainfall and the lower limit of rainfall intensity necessary for any wheat production at all varies from 90 to 120 mm.

279· Cost/profit ratio analysis showed that, if the wheat yield was below 300 kg./ha. wheat cultivation was not profitable, at present, to the farmer and, on the basis of the above, wheat cultivation should be limited to areas where the average rainfall intensity is above 240 mm. This limit varies slightly from district to district: it is equal to 245 ™®·t 224 mm. and 233 mm. in Irbid, Amman and Karak respectively.

28Ο. For an Early Warning or Forecasting System, total rainfall may not be very useful since the warning or forecast should be made a few months before harvest. The multi-variate analysis of the data showed that the most important rainfall months affecting yield were December and January. On that basis, an early fore-cast could be made as soon as the rainfall intensity during the significant months is known. It might be simpler to use a simple regression line relating the yield to the rainfall during the period from October to January. Such a regression line for East Jordan is: Y = 122 + 2.39 (N+D+j). Here again, the rate of increase is 2.39 kg./ha. for each additional mm. of rainfall while the positive constant term takes into consideration the expected rainfall during the following months. Another more precise forecast could be made in May just before harvest when total rainfall intensity will be known.

Summary and Conclusions 141

281. The evaluation of the precis ion of these forecasts can be done through the comparison of the original standard de / ia t ion of the y i e l d and the residual standard deviation after f i t t i n g the .'egression l i n e s . For East Jordan, the average y i e l d was 653 kg . /ha . and i t s standard deviation was 275 kg. /ha . After f i t t i n g the f i r s t regression l ine (at the f i r s t forecast) the standard deviation i s reduced to 181 kg . /ha . These residual standard deviations are s t i l l very high and can only be reduced further i f the po l icy of s t a b i l i z i n g production through the l imi ta t ion of the cropping areas t o the regions where the average ra infa l l in tens i ty i s reasonably high.

282. Even i f wheat production i s sens ibly s t a b i l i z e d , the problem of wheat imports remains and w i l l have t o be solved. The wheat production in East Jordan i s far below the demand and w i l l remain so for quite a number of years . The difference between demand and the average production w i l l have t o be imported on a continuous b a s i s . The amounts to be imported yearly in the next f ive years w i l l be increasing from about 150 000 M.T. to about 180 000 M.T. irrespect ive of the type and s i ze of the harvests t o come, Moreover, i f a stock-and-al location pol icy i s t o be establ ished and implemented, additional imports of the order of 200 000 M T. to const i tute an i n i t i a l stock are to be made i f the po l icy i s t o have a hi^i probabil i ty of success .

283. The present storage f a c i l i t i e s together with the s i l o s and s tores under con-struct ion may be suf f ic ient for a hand-to-mouth pol icy where the amounts in the stores are only kept u n t i l they are dis tr ibuted and consumed during the year but not for an over-year stock pol icy where the produce i s kept over several year with in-and out-of-stock movements according to the l ev e l of production. For such a type of pol icy more s i l o s and conventional s tores t o the capacity of 40 000 M.T. and 80 000 M.T. respect ive ly are to be provided. The investment cost of these additional storage f a c i l i t i e s was estimated to be of the order of 2 800 000 J.D. for the s i l o s and 1 7 60 000 J.D. for the conventional s tores and the operational cost for the whole system was found to be of the order of 300 000 J.D.

284. The hand-to-mouth po l i cy , where the amount of wheat imports i s determined according to the re su l t s of the cropping season and the procurement of the produce i s done after the resu l t s of the harvest are made known to the relevant authori t ies t i e s , has many drawbacks. Delays in the procurement may be too long and t h i s may produce a s i tuat ion of severe food shortage. Also, the need for imports being urgent, the prices t o be paid may not be favourable ones and t h i s may cause a b ig l o s s to the country.

285. The stocking po l icy where the imports are based on the re su l t s of the early warning and forecast system i s an improvement e spec ia l ly as i t reduces the e f fect of procurement delays and gives far more time for the s e l e c t i o n of more favourable market condit ions. However, a l l forecasts are l i a b l e t o errors and, in particular for wheat production in East Jordan, the standard deviation of the early forecast of the y i e l d i s of the order of 180 kg . /ha . which may produce a s i tua t ion in which a de f i c i t from the forecast value of the order t o 40 000 M.T. or more i s not unusual (a probabil i ty of o n e - f i f t h ) .

286. The stocking pol icy where, at the beginning of each year and in addition to the necessary imports (difference between the demand and the average production), an amount of wheat and wheat products to cover the poss ible déficit (twice the standard deviation which in East Jordan i s of the order of 14Ο 000 M.T.) i s imported and stocked may be very cos t ly to the country e spec ia l l y i f the year 's production i s average or above.

287. The stock-and-al location p o l i c i e s of the f i r s t , second and th ird type pro-posed in the e a r l i e r part of t h i s chapter, may prove more adequate t o the s i t u a -t i o n in East Jordan. They assume:

Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

A period of five years during which the policy is not to be changed.

A storage capacity of the order of 300 000 M.T.

A policy of necessary imports based on the difference between demand and average production,

A type of overall rationing especially in the years of a deficit in production when only a large part (three-quarters of the deficit or the deficit -35 000 M.T.) is made up from stocks.

A reasonable initial stock to ensure the success of the policy. An initial stock of about 200 000 M.T. ensures a probability of success of the order of 95 per cen"t and an initial stock of about 100 000 M.T. ensures a probability of success of the order of 80 per cent.

Chapter 9

Case Study of Syria

288. Wheat i s the main cereal produced in Syria for human consumption and wheat products const i tute a s taple food in the country with a very h i^ i average consump-t i o n of about 160 kg. per capita . I t i s thus of primary importance t o s t a b i l i z e the supply of wheat and wheat products and t h e i r equitable d i s tr ibut ion in the country.

289. Over the la s t 18 years the yearly production of wheat, both rain-fed and i rr igated , in Syria has been h i ^ i l y variable (cf . Graph 1, Annex I I , Part I I ) and the variat ions seem t o be random, a bumper harvest being followed indi f ferent ly by a poor, average or good harvest . In order t o give an idea of the amplitude of the var ia t ions , Table 40 shows the production of rain-fed wheat in two years: 1966 a poor harvest year and 1972 a bumper harvest year for four major producing Mohafazat and Total Syria. Also the average rain-fed wheat production over the period 1958-75 i s given for comparison.

29Ο. This i n s t a b i l i t y of production can be measured by the standard deviation or in r e l a t i v e terms by the coef f ic ient of var iat ion (ra t io of the standard deviation to the mean). Prom Table 1, Annex I I , Part I I , i t can be seen that the coef f ic ient of var iat ion in the Mohafazat i s rather high, i t var ies from 40 per cent to 75 P e r

cent and the overal l coe f f i c i ent of var iat ion for Total Syria i s 40 per cent .

291. Since production i s the product of the area under the crop and the y i e l d per unit area, i t s v a r i a b i l i t y i s the resultant of the two v a r i a b i l i t i e s of area and y i e l d . In general, the v a r i a b i l i t y of area i s not very h i^ i and may include a trend. In the part icular case of rain-fed wheat in Syria, there i s no evidence of the existence of a trend (e i ther increasing or decreasing) and the v a r i a b i l i t y of the area i s quite reasonable: with an average of 1 219 thousand h a . , the standard deviation i s 179 thousand ha. and the coef f i c ient of variat ion i s 15 per cent. The main component in the v a r i a b i l i t y of ra in-fed wheat production in Syria i s due to the f luctuat ions of the y i e l d over the years . In f a c t , the regression analys is of production on y i e l d of ra in-fed wheat in Syria shows 88 per cent of the variance of the production i s due t o the v a r i a b i l i t y of the y i e l d .

General meteorological analys is

292. Variations of the y i e l d s from year t o year in the same area are generally due t o weather condit ions . However, other factors l i k e the introduction of higher y i e ld ing v a r i e t i e s in a s ign i f i cant part of the area or the use of f e r t i l i z e r s may

143

144 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

increase the yield. On the other hand, the variations may be due not only to the weather conditions but also to the differences between the characteristics of the soil. If the relation between yield and weather conditions is to be quantified, the variation due to these extraneous factors has to be eliminated or separated so that the remaining variation will be due only to weather conditions.

293. The climatic variables which were taken into consideration for the present study are:

- rainfall, precipitations in mm. - relative humidity in percentage - number of days of rainfall - average temperature.

294· The monthly figures from October of one year to May of the following year were used to represent the climatic variables for the wheat agricultural season. For precipitations and days of ra infa l l f the data corresponding to August and September (a negligible quantity) were included in the figure for October and similarly the data corresponding to June and July were included in the May figure.

295· Also, in order to reduce the number of independent climatic variables in some of the models, the data were aggregated into 3 periods:

1. up to germination - October-November-December 2. growing up to ear formation - January-February 3. maturation of the ears - March-April-May;

and for the forecasting of the crop production into 2 periods:

1. up to February 2. from March to May.

296. Table 3» Annex II, Part II shows the mean and standard deviations over the period 1958-75 of the wheat production variables: area, yield per unit area, and total production; and of the climatic variables: rainfall, precipitation, relative humidity, number of days of rainfall, and temperature by Mohafazat and for Total Syria.

297· From Table 3t Annex II, Part II, it can be easily seen that there exist very large differences between the mean value of the climatic variables between the different Mohafazat and it can be deduced that the differences between the yearly figures are also very hi^i. In fact, the analysis of variance shows that both the variation between Mohafazat and the variation between years is very highly sig-nificant for every one of the climatic variables.

298. The climatic variables used in the study are not independent. The total rainfall precipitation is very highly correlated with the average relative humidity and with the total number of days of rainfall. Also,the average relative humidity is very highly correlated with the total number of days of rainfall. On the contrary, the average temperature is not significantly correlated with any of the three other climatic variables and, in the very rare cases where it is slightly significant, the correlation is negative.

299. As an illustration, Table 41, gives the correlation coefficients between the different climatic variables for some major wheat producing Mohafazat and for Total Syria. This very high correlation between rainfall precipitation, relative humidity and number of days of rainfall makes the three variables almost inter-changeable and little gain is expected to be obtained by including in the regres-sion models all three variables. However, it is not always the same variable

Case Study of Syria 145

which is the most effective in the different Mohafazat. For t h i s reason, the models used in the analysis were based f i r s t on each of the 3 variables separately and then together.

300. The rainfal l precipitat ion in the Mohafazat has a large dispersion over the years with a coefficient of variation of the order of 35 per cent,quite comparable to the dispersion of the rain-fed wheat yields and much larger than that of the relat ive humidity (of the order of 6 per cent) or that of the number of days of rain (of the order of 15 per cent) . Thus, i t was fel t that i t s var iabi l i ty and effect on the yield deserved a deeper study.

301. The analysis of the re la t ion between early ra infa l l (October-Hovember-Decem-ber) and to ta l rainfal l by Mohafazat and for a l l the meteorological stations taken together shows that the correlation between early and mid-rainfall , between early and la te rainfal l and between roid-and la te ra infal l are significant only in a few cases while the correlation between early and to t a l ra infal l i s very highly sig^-nificant for almost a l l the Mohafazat.

302. For Total Syria, the coefficient of correlation of early and t o t a l ra infal l i s equal to .939· This i s i l lus t ra ted by the joint probability distr ibution shown in Table 42 where i t can be seen that poor early ra infal l appears in 20 per cent (one in five) of the cases and in 7 per cent (or about one in three of these cases) the precipitat ion improves and becomes average.

Relation of climatic variables to wheat yields

303· As crop production i s the result of the product of the harvested area under the crop and i t s yield per unit area, i t i s obvious that the variation in crop production from year to year depends on the variations in the harvested area and in the yield. These in turn depend on a number of different factors: economic (expected income), technical (use of improved seeds or f e r t i l i ze r s ) and natural (meteorological var iables) .

304. The variation from year to year of these variables can be represented by the sum of:

1. a trendf generally a regular increase over time; 2. a random element, due in the f i r s t place to meteorological factors

and maybe to other human factors l ike farmers1 decisions to sow or not to sow.

305. Data on area, yield and production of rain-fed wheat in Syria were analyzed f i r s t for the trend over time. It was found that such a trend was not s t a t i s -t i c a l l y significant and that the hypothesis of i t s existence was to be rejected. This means that there i s no evidence that any of the three variables considered was increasing over time.

306. The next step was to compute simple correlations between the yield and each of the climatic variables: ra infal l precipi ta t ion, re la t ive humidity, number of days of rain and temperature. Table 43 shows the correlation coefficients between the yield and the climatic variables for some of the major wheat producing Mohafazat and for Total Syria. Graph 3f Annex I I , Part I I shows the co-variation of yield, r a in fa l l , re la t ive humidity and number of days of ra infal l for Total Syria.

307. The s t a t i s t i c a l analysis shows tha t :

146 Food Secur i ty Issues in the Arab Near East

TABLE 40: RAIN-FED WHEAT PRODUCTION (IN THOUSAND M.T.)

Mohafazat

Masakeh Aleppo Hama Dira

Tota l Syr ia

1966

158 49 29 31

503

1972

595 231 198 93

1 547

Average 1958-75

304 116 61 60

790

Def ic i t i n 1966

146 67 32 29

287

Surplus i n 1972

291 115 166 64

757

Source: Data "based on na t i ona l sources Table 1, Annex I I , Par t I I , gives t h e y e a r l y product ion of r a i n - f e d wheat for 8 major producing Mohafazat and for Tota l Syr ia over the period 1958-75.

TABLE 4 1 : CORRELATION COEFFICIENT BETWEEN THE CLIMATIC VARIABLES (1958-75)

Mohafazat

Hasakeh Aleppo Hama Raqqa

Rainfa l l X

humidity

.812

.811

.775

.799

.895

Rainfa l l X

days of rain

.907

.828

.929

.806

.951

Humidity X

days of r a in

.911

.833

.808

.827

.911

Temperature X

r a i n f a l l

.357 - .191 - . 0 4 3 - . 3 8 8

- .235

Temperature X

humidity

- .171 - .231 - . 003 - .235

- . 2 1 8

Temperature X

days of r a i n

- . 1 4 3 - .116 - .010 - . 2 6 8

- .219

TABLE 42: JOINT DISTRIBUTION OF EARLY AND TOTAL RAINFALL

^ ^ ^ ^ ^ Total Rain-

E a r ^ ^ - ^ 1

Rainfall ^ " ^ ^

0 - 49 nmu 50 - 199 ran.

200 - 399 mm. ί 400 mm. -f

Total

0-199mm.

.127

.061

.188

200-399™·

.070

.297

.004

.371

400-699mm.

.210

.061

.271

700mm. +

.008

.079

.083

.170

Total

.197

.576

.144

.083

1.000

Case Study of Syria 147

- correlation between the yield and rainfall is very highly significant for Total Syria, hi^ily significant for Hasakeh, Dira and Raqqa and not significant for Aleppo and Hama;

- correlation between the yield and relative humidity is highly sig-nificant for Total Syria, Aleppo and Raqqa, significant for Hasakeh, Hama and Dira;

- correlation between the yield and the number of days of rain is very highly significant for Total Syria, highly significant for Hasakeh and Dira, significant for Raqqa and Hama and not significant for Aleppo;

- correlation between the yield and average temperature is negative, significant for Hasakeh and Dira and not significant for Aleppo, Hama, Raqqa and Total Syria.

3Ο8. Consequently, it can be seen that the dependence of the yield on climatic variables is not uniform in the different Mohafazat. This is due to the fact that the average values of the climatic variables in the different Mohafazat are widely dispersed and also on the fact that when the average of the climatic variable is high the dependence of the yield on that variable becomes weaker. For example, if the average rainfall is very hi$i, the dependence of the yield on rainfall is negligible and the correlation between the two variables is not significant. This is the case for Hama, Tartous and Lattakia where the average yearly rainfall is 598, 1 Ο56 and 1 035 0· repsectively. This observation is also valid for relative humidity and for the number of days of rainfall.

309· The next step was to undertake multiple regression analysis of the yield on different climatic variables separately and also on certain combinations of the variables· The analysis was done using, at times, the monthly data and, at others, aggregates over longer periods of time. The computer programme was pre-pared in two different ways: in the first, the most important independent variable was selected first, then the second in importance and so on while in the second way, the variables were analyzed successively in a pre-established order.

310· The main quantitative results of these different analytical operations are summarized in Tables 4 and 5, Annex II, Part II. In Table 4 only the significant results concerning the Mohafazat are shown, while Table 5 deals with the results concerning Total Syria as one unit. In the following paragraphs, the conclusions to be drawn from the analysis are presented.

311. Prom Table 4 it can be seen that the best set of variables for an efficient regression model is different for the different Mohafazat:

- for Hasakeh and Sweida, the best set of variables is the set of rainfall by months and six independent variables are required to get the optimal regression for Hasakeh and 4 variables for Sweida;

- for Aleppo, Hama and Damascus only the combination of rainfall intensity, relative humidity and days of rain over the 3 periods gives an efficient regression surface and the number of independent variables included is 6, 5 and 6 respectively;

- for Dira, Tartous and Lattakia, the best set of variables is the set of monthly average temperatures and the number of independent variables included in the regression surface is 6, 3 and 5 respec-t ively;

- for Idleb and Deir Ezzor, the most efficient set is based on the number of days of rain per month and the number of independent var-iables included in the model is 5 for both Mohafazat ;

148 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

- for Raqqa and Horns the set of relative humidity by months is the most efficient set of variables and the number of independent var-iables used is 4 and 5 respectively,

312. Prom Table 5f Annex IIf Part IIt it can be seen that the efficient models for Syria are the following:

1. Utilizing as independent variables the monthly data of rainfall and selecting those months which contribute most to the variance, namely December, February and March (IL·, IL,, IL.) the standard deviation of the yield, the original value of which is 249 kg./ha. ,is reduced to 154 kg./ha. The regression surface takes the form: Y = 120 + 3.36 R^ + 3.72 Rp + 1.62 R^ .

2. utilizing the monthly number of days of rain as independent variables and selecting those months which contribute most to the variance of the yield, namely January, February and April (D_ , IL, f D.), the standard deviation of the yield is reduced to 155 kg./ha. The regression formula in this case is: Y = -312 + 21.8 Dj + 65.Ο DF + 34.5 EA .

3. Using the same independent variables as in 1 above (monthly rain-fall) and taking the data in chronological order, the most efficient regression model goes up to March and reduces the standard deviation of the yield to 157 kg./ha. The corresponding regression formula is Y = 118 + 2.79 Rjy + 3.51 Rp - 1.60 Rj + 3.31 Rp + 2.54 \ .

Comparing t h i s model with the one given in 1 i t i s useful to note that the additional information on the months of November and January did not improve the e f fect iveness of the model.

4 . Using the data on average re la t ive humidity during the 3 periods: October-December, January-February, and March-May (H-j, Η2 and H3) and s e l e c t i n g the most e f f i c i e n t periods, the standard deviat ion of the y i e l d i s reduced t o 160 kg. /ha. The regression formula i s : Y « -2612 + 21.7 H2 + 29.7 H3 . Although t h i s model i s not as e f f i c i ent as the preceding ones, i t has the advantage that i t u t i l i z e s only two independent var iables .

5 . The simple regression l i n e of the y i e l d on t o t a l yearly ra in fa l l (Rp) reduces the standard deviation of the y i e l d t o 162 kg . /ha . This model uses only one independent variable and explains 60 per cent of the variance of the y i e l d . The corresponding regression formula i s : Y = - 5 + 1 . 7 1 5 Rrp .

Development of an early warning system

313. Crop failure can have serious repercussions on the economy as well as on the food situation in the country and only through an early warning system can the authorities take appropriate measures in time to ensure the availability of suf-ficient food crops and their equitable distribution. On the other hand, timely information on bumper harvests will permit the formulation of policies on exports, prices and others. Thus, information on production in 'good* as well as in fbadf

years is necessary. Therefore, the system to be established in the country is really an Early Forecast System, a system which would give, with a certain degree of confidence, an early estimate of production before harvest.

314. For the forecast of wheat production and the establishment of an early warning system, the two components of the production: area under the crop and the yield have to be estimated at an early date. In general, the estimation of the area under wheat is an integral part of the national system for the collection

Case Study of Syria 149

of agricultural statistics and the information is readily available early during the growing season. This justifies the emphasis put on analysis of the effect of the meteorological variables on yield and the search for efficient methods to forecast its value.

315. Since the growth of wheat is affected not only by the yearly values of the climatic variables but also by the distribution of these values over the growing season, the analysis of the effect of these variables on the yield has been carried out on the basis of multiple regression models where the independent climatic variables are taken in successive periods of the year. This should improve the quality of the analysis and results and, moreover it permits the forecasts io be carried out in steps: after the first period and then after the second period, etc.

316. The parameters in a forecasting model are generally estimated on the basis of long time-series of the independent and the dependent variables. These varia-bles may be direct readings or observations or they could be a combination of a set of data treated in a certain way. In the use of the model to forecast a certain event, the values of the independent variables to be substituted in the model must come from the same source and should have been treated in the same way as the original data were treated in constructing the model. For this reason the type of data used and the way in which they were treated for constructing the regression models are given hereafter.

317· Since the climatic variables affect differently the yield of rain-fed wheat in the Mohafazat, the forecasting models proposed hereafter will be based on different sets of variables. The following paragraphs give,for Total Syria and separately for each of the 8 major wheat producing Mbhaf azat ,two forecasting formulae to be used one in March when the weather conditions up to February are known and the second in May when also the weather conditions in March and April are available. The regression formulae will be accompanied by the corresponding value of R2 which would serve as a measure of the efficiency of the regression model. The climatic variables - Rainfall, relative Humidity (in percentage) and number of Days of rain are represented by the letters R, H and D respectively and the letter~subscripts (O, N, D. .....) are the initials of the month concerned while the cipher subscripts (lf 2, 3) represent the order of the time period (early, mid, late).

318. For Total Syria the early forecast formula (in March) for the yield, based on the monthly rainfall, is : Y *= 182 + 3.82 R^ + 3.78 R , and the correspon-ding R2 is equal to .632. The late forecast formula (in April) is: Y « 120 + 3.36 R^ + 3.72 R_ + 1.69 RM and the corresponding R2 is equal to .637.

319. For Hasakeh the early forecast formula (in March) for the yield,based on the monthly rainfall is: Y « 286 + 2.35 R~ + 5.06 R , and the corresponding R2 is equal to .554. ^ Ύ

The late forecast formula (in April) is: Y - 229 + 2.02 IL· + 4.83 Rp + 1.46 RM and the corresponding R2 is equal to .578.

320. For Aleppo the early forecast formula (in March) for the yield, based on the monthly rainfall is: Y » 423 + 1.22 R^ + 2.74 Rp -3.02 R + 1.69 R^ and the cor-responding R2 is equal to .357. While the late forecast (in May) is based on the monthly figures for the percentage relative humidity and the formula is: Y = -1077 + 8.93 Η^ + 14.36 H and the cor-responding R2 is equal to .451·

150 Food Secur i ty Issues in the Arab Near East

321. For Hama t h e e a r l y forecas t ( i n March) i s based on a combination of t h e 3 v a r i a b l e s - r a i n f a l l , r e l a t i v e humidity and number of days of r a i n f a l l - over t h e f i r s t and second per iods of t ime and t h e formula i s : Y = 575 + .187 R.1 + 38.3 D-| -46 .9 H -1 .10 R2 + 2.97 Ί) + 29.7 H and t h e c o r r e s -ponding R2 i s equal t o .423· While t h e l a t e fo recas t ( i n May) i s based on t h e percentage r e l a t i v e humidity and t h e formula i s : Y . -3094 + 25.2 H + 29.4 H with an R2 equal t o .476.

322. For Dira f o r e c a s t i n g i s based on t h e monthly f igu res of r a i n f a l l and t h e formula for t h e e a r l y forecas t ( i n March) fo r t h e y i e l d i s : Y = 208 + 1.04 RJJ + 7.71 R^ - . 7 7 Rj + 2.78 Ry with an R2 equal t o .473 .

While t h e l a t e formula ( i n May) i s : Y = -49 + 4.78 IL· + 4.98 R^ - . 8 3 Rj + 2.66 IL· + 4.67 RM + 3.56 RA with an IT equal t o .538 .

323. For Id leb t h e f o r e c a s t s are based on t h e monthly f igu res of r a i n f a l l and the e a r l y forecas t formula ( i n March) fo r t h e y i e l d i s : Y = 178 + 3.72 R^ + 2.64 Rp -1 .25 Rj + 3.62 Rp with an R^ equal t o .628 . While t he l a t e forecas t formula ( i n May) i s : ~ Y = 36 + 2.80 Β^ + 2.16 Rp + 2.34 Rp + 4.76 RA wi th an R equal t o .756.

324. For Raqqa t h e f o r e c a s t s a re based on t h e monthly f i g u r e s of t h e percentage r e l a t i v e humidity and t h e e a r l y forecas t formula for t h e y i e l d ( i n January) i s : Y « -391 -25 .6 Η^ + 34.6 Η^ with an R2 equal t o .616. While the l a t e forecas t formula ( i n March) for t h e y i e l d i s : Y « «652 -27 .7 Hp + 32.0 Hp - 7 . 2 Hj + 16.1 Hp with an R2 equal t o .630.

325· For Horns t h e f o r e c a s t s a re based on t h e monthly f i gu re s of r a i n f a l l and t h e e a r l y forecas t formula for t h e y i e l d ( i n February) i s : Y = 316 + 5.59 RJJ + 4.64 Rp -3 .72 Rj wi th an R2 equal t o .373 While for t h e l a t e fo recas t fo r t h e y i e l d ( i n May) t h e formula i s : Y « 150 + 5.34 RJJ + 3.56 R^ -2 .27 Rj + 4.43 RA with an R2 equal t o .502.

326. For Sweida t h e f o r e c a s t s are based on t h e monthly f i gu re s of r a i n f a l l and t h e e a r l y forecas t formula for t h e y i e l d ( i n February) i s : Y » 133 + 3.51 R^ + 2.79 RT with an R2 equal t o .628 . D J

While t h e l a t e fo recas t formula for t h e y i e l d ( i n May) i s : Y = 179 + 3.55 Rp + 2.52 Rj -1 .49 Rp + 2.59 RA with an R2 equal t o .763 .

Trend i n i r r i g a t e d wheat product ion

327. The product ion of i r r i g a t e d ord inary wheat i n Syr i a during t h e 18 year per iod under cons ide ra t ion (1958-75) has been almost s t a t i o n a r y with what appears t o be random f l u c t u a t i o n s from year t o yea r . In f a c t , t h e r eg re s s ion ana lys i s of t h e da ta shows t h a t t h e a r ea under ord inary i r r i g a t e d wheat h a s , i f anything, a very s l i g h t decreas ing t r e n d and t h e y i e l d has a very s l i g h t i nc reas ing t r e n d . These t r e n d s , in opposi te d i r e c t i o n s , almost cancel each o the r l ead ing t o a wheat p r o -duct ion which f l u c t u a t e s randomly over t i m e . These f l u c t u a t i o n s can be seen in Graph 1 and Table 7 f Annex I I , Par t I I , which give t h e y i e l d and product ion of i r r i g a t e d wheat for Tota l Syr ia and t h e major producing Mohafazat.

328. I f , however, not only ord inary wheat i s considered but the t o t a l product ion of i r r i g a t e d wheat (o rd inary and Mexican), t hen t h e p i c t u r e i s s l i g h t l y changed:

Case Study of Syria - area under i r r igated wheat does not show any significant

trend over time; - yield has a highly significant increasing trend; - production has a significant increasing trend.

329. Taking the year 1957 as t = 0f 1958 as t = 1, e tc . the regression l ines for Area, Yield and Production over time are:

A (in thousand ha.) = 93.8 + 1.3 t Y (in kg./ha.) = 707 + 66.0 t P (in thousand M.T.) = 5Ο.4 + 10.5t

respectively. This means that the average yearly income in yield i s about 66 kg./ha. and the average yearly increase in production i s about 10 000 M.T.

33Ο. The increasing trend of i r r igated wheat production in Syria has become much more pronounced during the last four-year period 1973-76. The area under i r r igated wheat (both ordinary and Mexican)has been steadily increasing from 131 thousand ha. in 1972-73 to 193 thousand ha. in 1975-76 and the corresponding wheat production has steadily increased from 194 thousand M.T. in 1972-73 to 443 thousand M.T. in the year 1975-76.

331· The agricultural development plan for 1976-77 proposed to keep the area under i r r igated wheat at i t s 1975-76 level or about 190 thousand ha. and to increase the yield per ha. in such a way as to produce 565 thousand M.T. from irr igated wheat. I t does not seem l ikely that such plans would materialize.

Comparison with rain-fed production

332. The distr ibution of the acreage and production of wheat in Syria into i r r igated and rain-fed cult ivation during the 18 year period under study is shown in Table 44.

333· Although the i r r igated area was less than 8 per cent of the t o t a l area under wheat, i t contributed to more than 15 per cent of the t o t a l production. A bet ter picture of the si tuat ion in the more recent years i s obtained when the data are related to the variety of wheat; Tables 8At 8P and 8Y in Annex I I f Part I I , give the individual figures for the year 1972-73. 1973-74 and 1975-76 of the areas, production and yields of the 4 types of wheat cult ivation in Syria. A summary of those tables i s given in Table 45·

334· A study of the var iab i l i ty of the i r r igated wheat yields from year to year shows a variance almost as high as with rain-fed wheat yie lds . This can be seen in Graph 2, Annex I I , Part I I , and especially in Table 7t Annex I I , Part I I , where the coefficients of variation of the yield in the major i rr igated wheat producing Mohafazat vary from 27 per cent to 65 per cent, figures quite comparable with those of rain-fed wheat which vary from 38 per cent to 67 per cent.

335. A comparison of the wheat yields under the 4 types of cult ivation shows tha t :

- the yields of i r r igated Ordinary wheat are more than double the yields of rain-fed Ordinary wheat;

- the yields of rain-fed Mexican wheat are of the same order as the yields of i r r igated Ordinary wheat and thus more than double the yields of rain-fed Ordinary wheat;

- the yields of i r r igated Mexican wheat are about 40 per cent higher than the yields of i r r igated Ordinary wheat, 40 per cent higher than the yields of rain-fed Mexican wheat and more than 3 times the yields of rain-fed Ordinary wheat«

151

152 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

TABLE 43: CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS BETWEEN THE YIELD AND THE CLIMATIC VARIABLES (1958-75)

^ ^ C l i m a t i c Var-

Mohafazat"^-^

Hasakeh Aleppo Hama Dira Raqqa

Total Syria

Rainfall prec ip i ta t ion

.674

.406

.285

.629

.641

.774

Belat ive humidity

.490

.611

.469

.512

.631

.704

Days of rain

.639

.287

.481

.657

.524

.740

Average temperature

- .575 - . 1 7 4 I - . 1 9 3 I - .490 - .256

- .448

TABLE 44: AVERAGE AREA, PRODUCTION AND YIELD OF IRRIAGTED AND RAIN-FED WHEAT IN SYRIA (1958-75)

Irrigated Rain-fed

Total

Area

Average in »000 ha.

106 1 238

1 344

Percent

7.9 92.1

100.0

Production

Average in »000 ha.

150 819

969

Percent

15.5 84.5

100.0

Yield kg . /ha .

1 405 662

721 ;

TABLE 45*· AVERAGE AREA, PRODUCTION AND YIELD BY TYPE OF CULTIVATION (1973-76)

Irrigated Mexican Irrigated Ordinary Rain-fed Mexican Rain-fed Ordinary

Total

Area

Average in »000 ha.

110 56

130 1 278

1 574

Percent

7.0 3.6 8.2

81.2

100.0

Production

Average in Ό00 ha.

25Ο 91

209 83Ο

1 380

Percent

18.1 6.6

15.1 60.2

100.0

Yield kg . /ha .

2 273 1 625 1 603

65Ο

Case Study of Syria 153

Stabil izing effect of i r r igated production

336. Climatic variables do not contribute much to the fluctuations of the produc-t ion of i r r igated wheat· This may seem to imply that i r r igated wheat can play an important role in the s tabi l iza t ion of wheat production in Syria. However, t h i s i s not the case for several reasons of which:

1. Irr igated wheat contributes a small fraction to to ta l wheat production (an average of 15 per cent in the period 1958-75)·

2. The yield of i r r igated wheat i s highly correlated with the yield of rain-fed wheat, both move along roughly paral lel pathst poor harvests of i r r igated and rain-fed wheat occur simultaneously (cf. Graph 2, Annex I I , Part I I ) .

337. The existence of a s tabi l iz ing effect would imply that the fluctuations of the production from year to year are damped down to a reasonable magnitude. Now, since the ins tab i l i ty of production can be measured by the magnitude of the standard deviation or bet ter s t i l l , by the coefficient of variat ion, a way to establish the existence and extent of the s tabi l iz ing effect i s to compare the var iab i l i ty of the yield or production of rain-fed wheat with the corresponding var iab i l i ty for t o t a l wheat production. Only when the var iab i l i ty of the l a t t e r i s much smaller (significantly smaller) than the var iab i l i ty of the former, can one deduce the existence of a significant s tabi l iz ing effect.

338. Table 46 shows the var iab i l i ty of the yield per unit area and of the t o t a l production for rain-fed, i r r igated and t o t a l wheat production and serves as a base to ascertain the existence or non-existence of a significant s tabi l iz ing effect, (the data u t i l i zed cover the period 1958-75).

339· I* i s clearly seen that although the var iabi l i ty of the yield of i r r igated wheat i s somewhat smaller than the var iab i l i ty of the yield of rain-fed wheat (33 per cent compared to 38 per cent) , i t s s tabi l iz ing effect i s very slight as i t reduces the coefficient of variation of the yield from 38 per cent to 36 per cent. On the other hand, since the var iab i l i ty of production includes also a component due to the var iab i l i ty of the area under the crop and, since the var iab i l i ty of the area i s higher for i r r igated wheat than for rain-fed wheat (34 per cent com-pared to 15 per cent) , the coefficient of variation for i r r igated production is higher than the corresponding coefficient for rain-fed production and thus no s tabi l iz ing effect can be expected.

340· In order to s tabi l ize wheat production in Syria,a l ine of action which could be recommended is to limit rain-fed wheat cultivation to those areas where the average ra infal l intensity and other climatic variables are favourable to the growing of wheat in the area. Such an action has been proposed in the recent •Syrian Agricultural Development Plans1 and has been pa r t i a l ly implemented. The areas to be cultivated in wheat under rain-fed conditions were determined according to the newly established zoning system which i s based on the intensity and d i s t r i -bution of ra infal l precipi ta t ions.

341· Another possible action i s to reduce the var iab i l i ty of the area to be cul-t ivated in i r r igated wheat except for an increasing trend. This implies that in a rational medium-term planning policy the area under i r r igated wheat should be increased uniformly over the years and not have e r ra t i c ups and downs as was the case in the las t 20 years.

342· In order to achieve self-sufficiency in wheat production in Syria and,taking into consideration the resul ts of the yields (cf. paragraph 333) fit would seem recommendable to displace Ordinary wheat by Mexican wheat under rain-fed

154 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East cultivation but not necessarily under irrigated cultivation since the yield is more than doubled under rain-fed conditions and is only increased by about 40 per cent in irrigated cultivation. However, this recommendation is based on data covering only four years and further study might be necessary.

Food security strategy

343. Wheat being the staple food product in Syria, one of the main objectives of a food security plan is to make available in time the quantities of wheat and wheat products necessary to cover the demand for these products in the different Mohafa-zat of the country. Thus the supply must be readily available on the spot whenever the demand for the products is expressed.

344· A national system of food security can be based on:

1. Some policy measures to stabilize wheat production, i.e. to reduce the very high level of instability of wheat production as it now exists;

2. The establishment of an early warning or forecasting system which would give in advance some information on the expected level of production;

3. A reasonable medium-term policy of imports and/or exports to cover the difference between the expected demand and the expected production;

4. A stock policy to cover the residual instability of production.

345· On point 1 above: the problem of stabilizing wheat production, a section of this chapter has been devoted to this problem and some suggestions and re-commendations were offered in paragraphs 341 and 342. A section of this chapter was also devoted to point 2 and several sets of formulae for the forecast of wheat yields were offered. Points 3 and 4 will be considered in the following sections.

Past and present demand

346. The past and present demand for wheat and wheat products in Syria and its utilization for local human consumption and other purposes have been estimated by a number of agencies. Unfortunately, the conclusions at which they arrive show large variations. In what follows^the data and conclusions as published by the Pood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the data and conclusions of the 1975 Food Balance Sheets for Selected Commodities in Countries of the Arab Eear East given as Annex I to Part I, and finally the original data from the Syrian official sources and the conclusions which could be derived from an analysis of the data will be presented.

347. The FAO has been producing Food Balance Sheets for Syria for a long period of time. The time series given in its publication 'Provisional Food Balance Sheets (1972-74 Average)' covers the period 1961-74 and the results are based on the fol-lowing rates and conversion factors:

1. The seeding rate used was 100 kg. per ha. or about 12 per cent of the total production.

2. The losses due to waste, etc. were calculated at the rate of 5 per cent of total production.

3. The extraction rate of flour was taken as 85 per cent.

4. Arbitrary stock movements were introduced to stabilize human food consumption.

Case Study of Syria 155

On the basic rates given above, the average per capita consumption as food of wheat flour and other wheat products is 132 kg. with a standard deviation of 3.4kg· or in grain equivalent an average equal to 155 kg. of wheat and an S.D. = 4 kg. Thus the 95 Per cerrt confidence limits for per capita food consumption of wheat in grain equivalent will be from 147 kg. to 163 kg.

348. The Food Balance Sheets cover the year 1975 smd give projections of the demand for the years 198Ο and 19&5· The assumptions underlying the data on pro-duction and utilization are almost the same as in the FAO Food Balance Sheets:

1. The seeding rate is 100 kg./ha.

2. The rate of losses is only 2.5 per cent.

3. The extraction rate of flour is 85 per cent.

4· No stock movements were envisaged.

On these bases the per capita consumption as food was estimated for 1975 to be equal to 145 kg. of wheat flour or 171 kg. in grain equivalent. The projected demand for 198Ο and 1984 is assumed to be about 147 kg. of wheat flour or about 173 kg. of grain equivalent per capita, (a much larger figure than the upper confidence limit of the FAO estimate).

349. Table 9, Annex II t Part II gives for the period under study (1958-75):

- the total population - the total wheat production (irrigated and rain-fed) - the imports and exports of wheat and wheat products in

grain equivalent - the amounts utilized as seeds - the losses - the quantities available for food consumption.

350· In this table the data on population, wheat production, imports and exports of wheat and wheat products are the official published or unpublished figures. The seed rate utilized is the one agreed upon or 100 kg. per ha. The extraction rate used for the conversion of wheat flour into grain equivalent is 85 per cent. The losses and waste were calculated on the basis of 5 per cent of the total amount available, i.e. the total production plus the imports.

351 · Since official data on the stocks at the beginning and end of the agri-cultural year are not available, only the crude data on the amounts available for consumption are shown in the table, naturally, there appear to be large fluctua-tions from year to year which must have been corrected or damped down through stock movements. In particular, it can be assumed that the very large deficit in the years 195& and in 1973 was covered from the surpluses in the bumper harvests of the preceding years, 1956 and 1957 in the first case, and those of 1971 and 1972 in the second. On the other hand, the large amounts of wheat and wheat products imported in 1972, 1974f 1975 and 1976, years of bumper harvests, were aimed at building up stocks and it can be safely assumed that in the year 1976 the Government-owned silos and other conventional stores were almost full.

352. The total over the period 195&-75 of the gross supply of wheat for food con-sumption given as 16 618 thousand M.T. should be corrected for the change in stocks. A conservative estimate of this change between 195& and 1975 is an increase in stocks of the order of 500 thousand M.T. which should be subtracted from the above total in order to get the amount of wheat consumed as food by the population during the corresponding period of time. In such a case, the per capita food consumption of wheat in grain equivalent is equal to 158 kg. per annum (a figure well within the confidence limits given in paragraph 347).

156 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

353. In estimating the present demand of wheat, the following components are to be taken into consideration:

- the amount needed for food consumption "based on the population numbers and the per capita yearly consumption;

- the amount needed for seed, based on the area to be aown in wheat; - the amount of the losses, based on the total production and the

imports, if any.

354· For the estimation of the demand of wheat in the year 1978, the following estimates and assumptions were made:

- the population is estimated to be equal to 8 100 000 inhabitants; - two assumptions were formulated: a low one at 156 kg. and a higb

one at 16Ο kg. of wheat in grain equivalent for the per capita food consumption;

- the area to be sown in wheat is estimated to be equal to 1 550 thousand ha. and the seeding rate 100 kg./ha. ;

- the losses are estimated to be of the order 75 000 tons roughly 5 per cent of the gross supply.

355. On these bases the estimate of the demand of wheat for 1978 is equal to: Low assumption: 8 100 000 x .156 + 1 550 000 x .100 + 75 000 = 1 494 thousand M.T. Hi^i assumption·^ 100 000 x .160 + 1 55Ο 000 x .100 + 75 000 = 1 525 thousand M.T.

Projected demand

356. For the projection of the demand of wheat, the rates of increase or the changes over time of the different components of the demand: population, per capita consumption as food, area sown, seeding rate, losses; should be estimated.

357. The yearly rate of increase of the population for the next five years can be taken as constant and equal to 3*25 per cent. On the other hand, there is no evidence of the existence of a trend in the per capita food consumption of wheat flour in the past 18 years, however, a slight increase can be assumed in the per capita consumption in the near future. Thus, the global rate of increase in the demand of wheat for food can be taken to be equal to 3·50 per cent.

358. The area sown in wheat daring the last 5 years fluctuated around 1 600 000 ha. It is not expected that the magnitude of the total area will be changed. The changes proposed in the Agricultural Development Plan refer to:

- a change in the allocation of the area between rain-fed and irrigated (more of the rain-fed area will be irrigated)

- an increase of the utilization of high yielding varieties of wheat. However, this will not change much the amount of seeds needed for sowing purposes.

359. This re—allocation of the area under wheat between rain-fed and irrigated and between Ordinary and high-yielding varieties will make for an increase of the yield per unit area and consequently of the total production. The estimated rate of increase is about 6 per cent per annum. The estimated losses should also have the same rate of increase.

36Ο. On the above mentioned rates of increase (or change) of the components of demand of wheat in Syria, Table 47 shows the projected demand for the next five years on the two assumptions of low and hi^i food consumption.

361. A reasonable five-year agricultural development plan to ensure self-sufficiency in wheat product ion, which is in line with the declared official Govern-ment policy of allocation of areas to be sown in wheat and which quantifies the information given in paragraphs 358 and 359tis given in tabular form in Table 48.

Case Study of Syria 157

TABLE 46: COMPARISON OF THE VARIABILITY OF RAIN-FED IRRIGATED AND TOTAL WHEAT PRODUCTION

Yield ( k g . / h a . ) Mean Standard Deviat ion Coeff ic ient of

Var iâ t ion Product ion ( '000 M.T.)

Mean Standard Deviat ion Coeff ic ient of

Va r i a t i on

Ordinary Rain-fed wheat

654 249 .38

790 318

.40

Ordinary I r r i g a t e d wheat

1 292 428

.33

116 54

.47

[ Tota l wheat

722 I 262

.36

969 402

.41

| Year

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

TABLE 47:

P o p u l a t e ('000 inh)

8 100 8 383 8 677 8 981 9 295 9 620

PROJECTED DEMAND OF ( i n !000

Food oonsumption

Low High

1 264 1 308 1 354 1 401 1 450 1 501

1 296 1 341 1 388 1 437 1 487 1 539

WHEAT IN SYRIA (1978-83) M.T.)

Seeds

155 160 160 160 160 160

Waste

75 79 84 89 95

101

Tota l (

Low

1 494 1 547 1 598 1 650 1 705 1 761

iemand

High j

1 526 ! 1 580 1 632 1 686 1 742 1 800

7 The f i gu re s have been ad jus ted fo r t h e e l a s t i c i t y of demand u s i n g a comprehensive r a t e of inc rease equal t o 3.5 P e r cen t .

TABLE 48: FIVE-YEAR PLAN FOR SELF-SUFFICIENCY ΠΓ WHEAT PRODUCTION

Type of c u l -rt i va t ion Exp ' td . y i e l d

Year

1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83

Ordinary r a i n - f e d

700kg. /ha.

Ordinary i r r i g a t e d

l600kg. /ha .

HYV r a i n - f e d

1600kg./ha.

HYV i r r i g a t e d

2 200kg./ha.

Area ( i n »000 h a . )

1 200 1 100 1 000

900 800

50 40 30 20 10

150 210 270 330 390

200 25Ο 300 350 400

Tota l a rea

(«000 h a . )

1 600 1 600 1 600 1 600 1 600

Expected t o t a l product ion («000 M.T.)

1 600 1 720 1 840 1 960 2 080

158 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

362. Such a f ive-year plan would produce a surplus which i s expected to increase s teadi ly from 50 000 M.T. in 1979 "to 320 000 M.T, in 1983. These f igures are expected mean values assuming an average harvest and do not take into consideration the year-to-year f luctuat ions of production due to c l imatic and other var iables . Such surpluses could be e i ther exported ( in part icular to Jordan where they could cover the fnecessary imports1 needed to equi l ibrate t h e i r demand of wheat) or they could be used to build up stocks under a rational stock-and-al location po l icy .

A stock-and-al location pol icy

363· The expected volume of production for the years 1979-83 in Table 48 i s based on a planned a l loca t ion of the area and on the average y i e l d s of the d i f f e r -ent types of wheat cu l t iva t ion irrespect ive of the variat ions due to c l imatic and other factors . In order t o of fset the large year-to-year f luctuat ions in output which occur and w i l l continue to occur in the future (even i f act ions t o s t a b i l i z e production are taken) and also in order t o maintain a steady expansion of con-sumption, a po l icy of keeping an adequate l eve l of wheat stocks i s necessary.

364· ,In the past the concept of storage and stock-keeping in Syria (and also in other parts of the world) was based on the need t o cover the period at the end of the agricultural year (some two months before the new crop i s harvested) when the farmers1 and traders ' stocks are almost exhausted. Thust the storage capacity was taken to be equivalent approximately to two months consumption.

365. The same considérât ions for a stock-and-al locat ion pol icy referred to in Chapter 8 , paragraphs 245-253 are a lso relevant to the Syrian s i tua t ion . However, a d i s t inc t ion between rain-fed and irr igated agriculture warrants separate a t t e n -t i o n .

P o s s i b i l i t y of a pol icy based on rain-fed production

366. The types of stock-and-al locat ion p o l i c i e s enviaged here imply t h a t , except for the random element which produces the yearly f luctuat ions in the production, the two conceptual models for demand and supply should be at the same l ev e l at the s tart of the scheme and they should have prac t i ca l l y the same increasing trend. Now, s ince the rain-fed wheat production in Syria i s much below the l eve l of demand, i t should be supplemented throu^i what i s termed 'necessary imports' in order t o s a t i s f y the above condition. These 'necessary imports' could come from the production of i rr igated wheat or , i f the volume of that production i s not s u f f i c i e n t , from outside sources.

367. The volume of these necessary imports for a f ive-year stock-and-al locat ion scheme (1979-83) i s given in Table 49·

368. The parameters needed for the evaluation of the probabil i ty of success of a stock-and-al location pol icy have been estimated on the bas i s of the avi lable information and are as fo l lows:

1. The rate of increase of the global demand, a combination of the increase in demand for food consumption, the stationary s i tuat ion of the demand for seeds and the increase in the l o s s e s which i s proportional to production, has been taken as 3.345 Per cent .

2 . The standard deviation of the random element i n the production was estimated, taking into account the additional necessary imports, and i t s value i s equal t o 29 per cent of the demand ( e . g . equal t o 449 thousand M.T. for the year 1979).

Case Study of Syr ia 159

The present storage capacity of Government-owned s i l o s and s t o r e s , as shown in a publication of the Cereals Marketing Board of Syria, i s 810 thousand M.T. and the projected increase i s for an additional storage capacity of 600 thousand M.T.

The estimation of the volume of i n i t i a l stocks (stocks at the be-ginning of the agricultural year 1968-69) i s more d i f f i c u l t s ince the data avai lable on stocks at the beginning and end of agricultural years are not always compatible with the storage capacity ( e . g . an o f f i c i a l f igure on the stocks of wheat in Government-owned s tores at the end of the year 1975-76 was given as 1 048 thousand M.T.). For the purpose of t h i s study, three a l ternat ives w i l l be considered: an i n i t i a l stock of 400 thousand M.T., then one of 800 thousand M.T. and the t h i r d of 1 200 thousand M.T.

369· A scheme in which only the s o - c a l l e d necessary imports, t o complement the theoret ica l rain-fed production and bring i t to the l eve l of the demand, are taken from the irr igated production while the remaining part (difference between the t o t a l i rr igated production and the necessary imports) i s completely exported, w i l l have different probabi l i t i e s of success according to the volume of the stocks at the s tart of the scheme and, in part icular , w i l l depend on the type of stock-and-a l locat ion pol icy decided upon.

370. As an i l l u s t r a t i o n , the probabil i ty l e v e l s of success of such a f ive-year scheme for Syria are given in Table 50. Three values of the i n i t i a l stock are ut i l ized,namely 400 000 M.T., 800 000 M.T. and 120 000 M.T. The stock-and-a l loca t ion p o l i c i e s are quite simple and correspond to the f i r s t and second types described in the previous chapter (paras. 25Ο-251).

371· The probabi l i t i e s of success are not very high and i t becomes evident that a scheme based on the rain-fed production i s not very pract ical e spec ia l ly in a country which i s or can e a s i l y become s e l f - s u f f i c i e n t with respect to wheat produc-t i o n . I t i s not rational to decide in advance that a certain f ixed volume of the production i s to be exported and t h i s at the expense of the welfare of the people and with the p o s s i b i l i t y of creating serious food shortages.

372. Since Syria has almost attained s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y , except for year-to-year f luctuat ions in wheat production and since i t i s expected that the wheat produc-t i o n (and hence supply) in the near future w i l l increase at a higher rate than the rate of increase of demand, a stock-and-al locat ion pol icy w i l l soon have no object: the surplus of production over demand w i l l become larger and larger and completely cover the poss ible f luc tuat ions . In such a case , the old conventional type of stock pol icy in which the stock at the beginning of the year should be equal to the probable d e f i c i t i s to be recommended.

373. For t h i s type of stock po l i cy , the probable de f i c i t at the 90 per cent l ev e l of confidence i . e . the one which w i l l be surpassed only once in 10 times and which should be kept as stocks at the beginning of the year, can be calculated by the fol lowing formula: Probable Def ic i t (at 90 per cent l e v e l ) « 1.282 x standard deviation of production

- Surplus of expected production over demand

and i f the required l e v e l of confidence i s 95 per cent (a fa i lure only once in 20 times) the formula becomes: Probable Def ic i t (at 95 per cent l e v e l ) « 1.645 * standard deviation of production

- Surplus of expected production over demand

Now since the standard deviation of production (a f ter s t a b i l i z a t i o n and a l locat ion of the area to the different types of cu l t iva t ion) i s expected t o go down t o about

3.

4.

160 Food Securi ty Issues in the Arab Near East

TABLE 49: NECESSARY IMPORTS FOR A POLICY BASED ON RAIN-FED PRODUCTION (IN THOUSAND M.T.)

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

Demand V low assumption

1 547 1 598 1 650 1 705 1 761

_ Rain-fed -1

production

1 080 1 106 1 132 1 158 1 184

Necessary imports !

467 492 518 547 577

7 The demand f igures are those corresponding t o t h e low assumption in para.360 and Table 47.

_2/The product ion f igu res correspond t o t h e sum of t he product ion of r a i n - f e d Ordinary and r a i n - f e d HYV wheat as given in para . 361 and Table 48·

TABLE 50: PROBABILITY OP SUCCESS OP STOCK-AND-ALLOCATION POLICIES BASED ON RAIN-FED WHEAT PRODUCTION

Description of Policy

Case of surplus

Totality of surplus put in storage

3/4 of surplus put in storage

Surplus or deficit l€ No

Surplus>112 000 M.T.

Put in storage Surplus 112 000 M.T.

Surplus or deficit l€ No

Surplus>224 000 M.T.

Put in storage Surplus 224 000 M.T.

Case of deficit

Totality of deficit taken out of stocks

3/4 of deficit taken out of stocks

ÎSS than 112 000 M.T. act ion

Deficit>112 000 M.T.

Taken out of stocks ÎDèficit 112 000 M.T.

iss than 224 000 M.T. act ion

Deficit>224 000 M.T.

Take out of stocks Deficit 224 000 M.T.

Probability of Success

Initial stock 400 000 M.T.

• 515

.578

.553

.700

Initial stock 800 000 M.T.

.693

.785

.753

.869

Initial stock] 1 200 000M.T.

.820

.906

.880 |

.930 !

Case Study of Syria 161 35 per cent of the average production, the two formulae reduce t o : Probable Def ic i t (at 90 per cent l e v e l ) * Demand - .5513 expected production and Probable Def ic i t (at 95 per cent l e v e l ) Demand = - .42425 expected production.

374· Applying these formulae t o the projected f igures of demand and production given in paragraphs 360 and 361, the quant i t ies of wheat to be kept in stock at the beginning of each of the 5 years of the scheme are given in Table 51· Thus, under the condition expressed in paragraphs 36Ο and 361, a f ixed volume of stocks of the order of 650 000 M.T. would ensure that the demand for wheat w i l l be s a t i s f i e d completely 9 times out of 10 and that a f ixed volume of about 870 000 M#T# would ensure the success of the scheme 19 times out of 20.

Role of i rr igated wheat production

375· In order t o have a s t a b i l i z i n g e f f e c t , i rr igated production should be much l e s s variable than rain-fed production. In the past , t h i s was not true and t h i s fact can be explained as fo l lows: the v a r i a b i l i t y of wheat production contains a component due to the v a r i a b i l i t y of the wheat area and a component due t o the v a r i a b i l i t y of the y i e l d . Over the period 195&-75 the v a r i a b i l i t y of the area of i rr iga ted wheat was much larger than that of ra in-fed wheat while the v a r i a b i l i t y of the y i e l d of i rr igated wheat was s l i ^ i t l y lower than that of rain-fed wheat, as can be seen from the coef f ic ient of variat ions given in Table 52.

376. I f the area under i rr igated wheat i s kept more or l e s s constant, or a l terna-t i v e l y s tead i ly increasing, the v a r i a b i l i t y of the production, except for the increasing trend in the l a t t e r case , w i l l be roughly proportional t o that of the y i e l d and thus the coef f i c ient of variat ion w i l l decrease from 47 per cent to 33 per cent . However, even with that important improvement, the s t a b i l i z i n g ef fect on t o t a l production w i l l be rather s l i g h t .

377. The r e a l l y s igni f icant role of i r r iga t ion i s to increase production through the increase of the y i e l d per unit area. In f a c t , i rr iga t ion more than doubles the y i e l d of Ordinary wheat and increases the y i e l d of Mexican wheat by about 40 per cent . Thus, i t i s an important factor i n the effort made by Syria t o reach s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y in wheat production.

378. This role of i rr igated wheat to increase t o t a l production i s shared by the introduction and the general izat ion of the use of h i^ i y i e ld in g v a r i e t i e s of wheat. A comparison of the average y i e l d s of Mexican and Ordinary wheat shows t h a t , even without i r r i g a t i o n , i . e . under rain-fed condit ions , Mexican wheat y i e l d s reach the same l e v e l as that attained by i rr igated Ordinary wheat and thus i t seems much more economical t o u t i l i z e more and more the high y i e ld ing v a r i e t i e s of wheat under rain-fed conditions than to i rr iga te Ordinary wheat. Also, i f i r r iga t ion i s reserved for the high y i e ld ing v a r i e t i e s , the y i e l d s , and hence t o t a l production, are increased much more.

379· The statement in paragraph 378 i s based on the data of a very short time s e r i e s s ince the information on Mexican wheat was given separately only for the period 1973-76 and thus can only be indicat ive and no strong recommendation can be formulated before further study i s carried out. However, the v a r i a b i l i t y of the average y i e l d s of Mexican wheat between Mohafazat i s much smaller than the corres-ponding v a r i a b i l i t y for Ordinary wheat, as can be seen from Table 10, Annex I I , Part I I , which j u s t i f i e s the u t i l i z a t i o n of the data on the y i e l d s for development planning.

162 Food Secur i ty Issues in the Arab Near East

TABLE 5 1 : STOCKS TO BE AVAILABLE AT THE BEGIMING OF THE YEAR

! Year

! 1979 ! 1980

1981 1982

I 1983

Stocks (in »000 M.T.)

90% Confidence

665 65Ο 636 624 615

93% Confidence

868 I 869 87Ο 873 879

_ |

TABLE 5 2 : COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION OF THE AREA, YIELD AND PRODUCTION OF RAIN-FED AND IRRIGATED ORDINARY WHEAT

Type of cultivation

Rain-fed Irrigated

Area

15fo 34fo

Yield

38$ 33$

Product ion

4$ 47/0

Chapter 10

Development of a Sub-regional Model

Comparison of ra in fa l l and wheat production in Jordan and Syria

380# The dispersion of average yearly ra in fa l l over the d i s t r i c t s in Syria i s much larger than in East Jordan. Averages over the years for the different meteorology i ca l s ta t ions in East Jordan vary from 20 mm. of prec ip i tat ion at Mudawwara (Ma'an) to 615 mm. Aflun ( irbid) while in Syria the averages show a minimum value of 121 mm. of prec ip i ta t ion at Nabek (Damascus) and a maximum value of 1 192 mm. at Dreikeesh (Tartous). Thust in Syria prec ip i ta t ions are never as low as in East Jordan and they can be as high as the double of those in East Jordan.

381. Since rain-fed wheat cu l t iva t ion requires a reasonable amount of r a i n f a l l , roughly from 250-450 mm. well d is tr ibuted over the growing season, regions with extreme values of ra in fa l l prec ip i tat ion are not well adapted t o i t s cu l t iva t ion . Fortunately, t h i s i s generally taken into consideration by the farmers in the two countries: in East Jordan the d i s t r i c t s of Na'an and Balqa with too l i t t l e and too much ra in fa l l respect ive ly , contribute only about 10 per cent of the area under rain-fed wheat and 9 per c e n t of i t s production and s imi lar ly , in Syria the Mohafazat of Damascus and Deir Ezzor with too l i t t l e ra infa l l and the Mohafazat of Tartous and Lattakia with too much ra in fa l l contribute about 6 per cent of the t o t a l area under rain-fed wheat and only 8 per cent of the production.

382. The s i tua t ion i s well understood also by the planning author i t ies in both countries who are concerned over the u t i l i z a t i o n of the natural resources to t h e i r maximum potent ia l . Studies on the sub-divis ion of the country into agr i -cultural zones based on the c l imatic variables and, in part icular,on ra in fa l l prec ip i tat ion and also on the s o i l character i s t i c s have been carried out. The character i s t i cs of the different agricultural zones in Syria and Jordan are not exactly the same as can be seen from Table 53.

383· On the bas is of t h i s sub-divis ion into agro-cl imatic zones ,a r e - a l l o c a t i o n of the areas to be cu l t ivated in wheat has been proposed by the planning authori t ies in the two. countries:

1. In East Jordan the f i r s t zone covering about 230 000 ha. i s considered the ideal area of rain-fed wheat production. Also rain-fed wheat could well be produced in the part a) of the th i rd zone while i rr igated wheat i s to be produced in the Ohor area ( f i f t h zone).

163

164 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

In the Report of the Symposium on the Development of Agriculture in Jordan, 1974 (in Arabic), the proposed allocation of the land to be under wheat is as follows:

Average rainfall 250-300 mm. 300-400 mm. Over 400 mm.

Acreage 65Ο 000 ha. 604 000 ha. 71 000 ha.

2. In Syr ia t h e 1976-77 Agr i cu l tu ra l Development Plan proposes t he fol lowing a l l o c a t i o n of a reas (in thousand ha.) for wheat c u l t i v a t i o n s epa ra t e ly for r a i n - f e d and i r r i g a t e d and for Ordinary and Mexican (or o the r HYV's):

I r r i g a t e d F i r s t zone Second zone Th i rd zone

HYV's 157 244 Ordinary 32 809 545 49 which shows t h a t t h e regions s e l e c t e d by the two coun t r i e s for r a i n -fed wheat c u l t i v a t i o n are almost i d e n t i c a l and in conformity with t h e requirements of r a i n f a l l fo r wheat product ion .

384. S t a b i l i z a t i o n of r a i n - f e d wheat product ion in t he two coun t r i e s as a Sub-region (East Jordan-Syr ia) could only happen i f a poor ( d e f i c i t ) harves t i n one country i s counter-balanced by a good ( su rp lus ) harvest i n t he o the r dur ing t h e same year . This would imply s t rong negat ive c o r r e l a t i o n s between product ion , y i e l d and r a i n f a l l in t h e two c o u n t r i e s . Table 11 , Annex I I , Par t I I , gives t he da ta on r a i n f a l l and y i e l d for Syr ia and East Jordan over t h e per iod from 1961-74· Also, Graphs 4 and 5» Annex I I , Part I I , show the c o - v a r i a t i o n of y i e l d and r a i n -f a l l r e s p e c t i v e l y in Syr ia and East Jordan over t h e same per iod of t ime .

385. Prom t h e t a b l e and graphs mentioned above i t i s obvious t h a t t h e r e i s no negat ive c o r r e l a t i o n ; on t h e cont ra ry t h e r e appears t o be a s t rong p o s i t i v e co r -r e l a t i o n . This i s confirmed by t h e ana ly s i s of t he da ta : t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s of c o r r e l a t i o n of t he r a i n f a l l , y i e l d and product ion of r a i n - f e d wheat i n Syr ia and East Jordan are .528 , .581 and .468 r e s p e c t i v e l y and as t h e s e c o e f f i c i e n t s of c o r r e l a t i o n are based on 15 y e a r s , t h e p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n s between t h e two s e r i e s of r a i n f a l l , t h e two s e r i e s of y i e l d s and t h e two s e r i e s of product ion are a l l s i g n i f i c a n t at t h e 95 P e r c e n t l e v e l .

386. Another way of s tudying the s t a b i l i z i n g effect of aggregat ing t h e East Jordan ra i t t - fed wheat product ion t o t h a t of Syr ia i s through the degree* of reduc t ion of t he coef f ic ien t of v a r i a t i o n . The r e s u l t s of such a s tudy are shown in Table 54·

Present and pro jec ted sub-regional wheat demand

387. The present or t h e 1978 demand for wheat i n t he Sub-region i s t h e sum of t he demand in Syr ia and t h e demand in Eaet Jordan. The present demand for wheat i n Syr ia i s given i n paragraph 355 and i s ecjual t o : 1 494 000 M.T. under t h e low assumption and 1 526 000 M.T. under t h e h i ^ i assumption, while t h e 1978 demand for wheat i n Eaet Jordan was p ro jec ted i n Chapter 8 and given as 321 400 M.T. Thus, t he t o t a l sub-regional demand can be taken as 1 830 000 M.T., an average f igure between t h e two above assumptions.

388. The p ro jec ted demand for t h e Sub-region can be ca l cu l a t ed e i t h e r by t a k i n g sepa ra t e ly t h e d i f f e ren t components of t h e demand: food consumption, seeds and expected l o s s e s and s epa ra t e ly t h e two c o u n t r i e s , and p r o j e c t i n g each of t h e com-ponents s e p a r a t e l y on t h e b a s i s of t h e corresponding r a t e s of increase (as i n paragraph 359)» or a s i n g l e weighted average of t h e d i f fe ren t r a t e s of increase can be ca l c u l a t e d f i r s t and t hen appl ied t o t he demand in 1978.

Development of a Sub-regional Model 165

389· The different rates of increase are the following:

- the rate of increase of the population in Jordan i s 3.1 per cent and in Syria i s 3.25 per cent;

- the rate of increase of the per capita demand for wheat as food i s ·5 per cent in both countries;

- the rate of increase of the seeds i s n i l , s ince in both countries the pol icy i s t o keep the t o t a l area under wheat almost constant;

- the rate of increase of the l o s s e s i s simply equal to the rate of increase of production: 3-4 per cent in Jordan and 6 per cent in Syria.

390· Now, s ince the population of Jordan and Syria are 21 per cent and 79 per cent of the t o t a l population of the Sub-region, and the demand for seeds i s about 10 per cent of the t o t a l demand, a global rate of increase i s equal t o : .21 (3.1 + . 5 ) 0 - . 1 0 - .035) + .79 (3.25 + . 5 ) 0 - .10 - . 0 6 ) or equal t o 3.14 per cent.

391. On these bases , the projected demand for wheat in the Sub-region for the next f ive years i s equal t o :

Year 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

Demand 1 830 1 888 1 947 2 008 2 071 2 136 thousand M.T.

while the expected t o t a l production of the Sub-region during the same period, based on the data in paragraph 36Ο and Chapter 8, i s equal t o :

Year 1978 1979 1980 1981. 1982 1983

Production 1 635 1 761 1 886 2 012 2 138 2 264 thousand M.T.

From the above, i t can be seen that the Sub-region can a t ta in s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y (except for year-to-year f luctuat ions due t o c l imatic and other random variables) in the agricultural year 1980-81, and that from then onwards the Sub-region w i l l be , on average, producing more than i t s demand for wheat.

Development of a stock-and-al locat ion pol icy

392. As already mentioned in paragraph 366, the conceptual models for demand and supply of wheat in the Sub-region should be at the same l ev e l at the s tart of the scheme and they should have roughly the same rate of increase i f stock-and-a l locat ion p o l i c i e s of the type given in Chapter 8 are t o be success fu l ly imple-mented·

393. The expected wheat production in the Sub-region during the f ive-year period of a stock-and-al locat ion pol icy together with the corresponding projected demand for wheat i s given in Table 55.

394. If the stock-and-al locat ion po l icy for the Sub-region i s t o be based on the t o t a l production, then there w i l l be a need t o supplement the loca l production by •necessary imports» during the f i r s t two years of the scheme: 127 000 M.T. and 61 000 M#T. for the years 1978-79 and 1979-80 respec t ive ly , while in the la s t three years , the surpluses could be used t o bui ld up the s tocks .

395· Iff o n the other hand, the stock-and-al locat ion pol icy i s to be based only on the rain-fed production while the i rr igated production w i l l be serving t o cover the necessary imports and/or t o bui ld up the s tocks , then the necessary imports during the f ive-year period w i l l be equal t o : 657 000 M.T., 687 000 M.T., 718 000 M.T., 751 000 M.T. and 786 000 M.T. success ive ly . These necessary imports

166 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

TABLE 53: CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AGRICULTURAL ZONES IN SYRIA AND EAST JORDAN

Country-

East Jordan

Syr ia

F i r s t zone

Av. r a i n f a l l between 300 and 350 mm.

Av. r a i n f a l l over 35Ο mm· and r a i n f a l l i s over 300 mm. in 2 out of 3 years

Second zone

Av. r a i n f a l l between 200 and 300 mm.

Av. r a i n f a l l between 25Ο and 35Ο mm. and r a i n f a l l i s over 25Ο mm. in 2 out of 3 years

Third zone

Av. r a i n f a l l over 35Ο mm. a) slope 0-8$ b) s lope 9-2z$ c) s lope > 25$

Av. r a i n f a l l between 25Ο and 35Ο mm. and r a i n f a l l i s over 25Ο mm. in 1 t o 2 y r s . o u t of 3

Fourth zone

Av. r a i n f a l l l e s s than 200 mm.

Av. r a i n f a l l between 200 and 25Ο mm. and r a i n f a l l i s over 200 mm. in 1 year out of 2

F i f t h zone

Ghor a rea i r r i g a t e d

Land unsu i t4 able for r a i n - f e d farming

TABLE 54: COEFFICIENTS OF VARIATION OF WHEAT PRODUCTION (1961-1975)

East Jordan Syr ia Sub-region

Mean product ion in thousand M.T.

131 850 981

Standard dev ia t ion in thousand M.T.

71 316 354

Coeff ic ient of Var i a t i on |

54$ I 37$ ! 36/0

The coef f i c ien t of v a r i a t i o n of wheat product ion for t h e Sub-region i s very s l i g h t l y b e t t e r t han t h a t of Syr ia ( the main component)

TABLE 55: EXPECTED PRODUCTION AND PROJECTED DEMAND (IN THCUSAITO M.T.)

Year

1979 198Ο 1981 1982 1983

I r r i g a t e d product ion

Syr ia

520 614 708 802 896

E.Jordan

10 12 14 16 18

Tota l

530 626 722 818 914

Rain-fed product ion

Syr ia

1 080 1 106 1 132 1 158 1 184

E.Jordan

151 154 158 162 166

Tota l

1 231 1 260 1 290 1 320 1 350

Total pro--duct ion

1 761 1 886 2 012 2 138 2 264

Demand

1 888 1 947 2 008 2 071 2 136

Development of a Sub-regional Model 167

will be covered partly by the i rr igated production during the f i r s t two years of the scheme and fully from the th i rd year and onwards.

396. The parameters needed for the evaluation of the probability of success of a stock-and-al location policy based on rain-fed wheat production are the following:

- the rate of increase of demand i s 3· 14 per cent (paragraph 389); - the standard deviation of the random element in rain-fed production in

the Sub-region i s equal t o y ( 4 4 9 ) 2 + (71 ) 2 = 455 thousand M.T. (paragraphs 368 and Chapter 8;

- the present storage capacity in the Sub-region is equal to 810 000 M.T. in Syria and about I40 000 M.T. in East Jordan or a to t a l of approximately 95Ο 000 M.T, However,more s i los and other conventional stores are planned to be constructed in the near future in order to bring the to ta l storage capacity in the Sub-region to about 1 500 000 M.T. (paragraph 368 and Chapter 8) ;

- since the volume of the i n i t i a l stocks (stocks at the beginning of the agricultural year 1968-69) for the Sub-region i s not available, two al ternatives will be assumed: an i n i t i a l stock of 500 and 1 200 000 M.T.

397· The sub-regional five-year (1979-83) stock-and-allocation scheme proposed hereafter i s based on rain-fed production with defici ts supplied by i rr igated wheat production and, when necessary, foreign imports. This implies tha t :

- only the necessary imports (volume of which is given in paragraph 395) are to be added to the expected rain-fed production to bring i t to the level of the demand;

- during the f i r s t two years of the scheme, the difference between the necessary imports and the i r r igated wheat production (paragraph 394) i s to be procured from external sources;

- during the last three years of the scheme, the difference between the i rr igated wheat production and the necessary imports i s to be exported outside the Sub-region.

398. Considering the same stock-and-allocation policies as in paragraph 370, the probabil i t ies of success of the five years scheme are given in Table 56. The probabil i t ies of success of the sub-regional stock-and-allocation policies are very s l ight ly higher than those for Syria alone (paragraph 370). In fact , they would be almost the same if the i n i t i a l stock had not been increased by taking into consideration the stocks to be kept in East Jordan.

399· From the set of probabil i t ies given in Table 56, i t can be seen that with an i n i t i a l stock of one million M.T.:

- a five-year scheme satisfying completely the demand will succeed 3 times out of 4;

- a scheme in which the stock movements are only 3/4 of the surpluses or def ic i ts will succeed 6 times out of 7;

- a scheme in which surpluses and defici ts of a volume smaller than 227 5OO M.T. are allowed to occur without interference will succeed 14 times out of 15·

4OO. Here again, since the Sub-region could a t ta in self-sufficiency in a couple of years and t h a t , from then onwards, the average wheat production will be higher than the demand, a reasonable stock policy could be the simple one of keeping in

168 Food Secur i ty Issues in the Arab Near East

s tock at the beginning of each year a volume of wheat equal t o t h e probable d e f i c i t . The probable d e f i c i t could be c a l c u l a t e d in t h e same way as in p a r a -graphs 373 and 374 and t h e order of magnitude of such a d e f i c i t (and hence, s tocks t o be kept at t he beginning of each year) i s : 900 000 M#T. at the 90 per cent confidence l e v e l ; and 1 150 000 M.T. at the 95 per cent confidence l e v e l .

TABLE 5 6 : PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS OF SUB-REGIONAL STOCK-AND-ALLOCATICN POLICIES BASED ON RAIN-FED WHEAT PRODUCTION

Description of policy

Case of surplus

Totality of surplus put in storage

3/4 of surplus put in storage

Surplus or deficit 1 No

Surplus>113 75Ο M.T.

Put in storage Surplus 113 75Ο M.T.

Surplus or deficit 1 No

Surplus>227 500 M.T.

Put in storage Surplus 227 5OO M.T.

Case of deficit

Totality of deficit taken out of stocks

3/4 of deficit taken out of stocks

ess than 113 750 M.T. action

Deficit>113 750 M.T.

Take out of stocks Deficit 113 75Ο M.T.

ess than 227 500 M.T. act ion

Deficit>227 500 M.T.

Take out of stocks Deficit 227 5OO M.T.

Probability of success based on an initial stock of:

5OO 000 M.T.

.563

.638

.609

.752

1 000 000 M.T.

.764

.855

.825

.931

Summary and Conclusions of Chapters 9 and 10

401. Pood security can only he ensured if action is taken in a number of dif-ferent directions. The major actions are:

1. To stabilize production or at least to reduce its variability;

2. To establish an early warning or yield forecast system;

3· To establish a policy of imports and/or exports to cover the difference between the demand and the average production;

4. To establish a stock-and-allocation policy.

402. The coverage of the study was limited to wheat and wheat production (rain-fed and irrigated, Ordinary and hi^i yielding varieties) in Syria and in Syria and East Jordan as a Sub-region. The climatic variables used for yield fore-casting were: the monthly rainfall intensity, the monthly relative humidity, the monthly average temperatures and the number of days of rain by month. Data on other relevant variables like soil moisture f evapo-transpiration, etc. were not available. The analysis covered the period from 1957—5^ to 1974-75·

403· The probabilitic approach was used throughout in the analysis of the data and in the presentation of the results. Most of the results were accompanied by the corresponding standard deviation (S.D.) and/or coefficient of variation (C.V.). It is unfortunate that the quality of the basic data was not as high as is desirable for such a study and some of the results and conclusions may suffer from it.

404. Rain-fed wheat production in Syria does not show a significant increasing trend over time but only very high random fluctuations with a coefficient of variation equal to 40 per cent. These are due more to the hi^i variability of the yields which show a coefficient of variation of 38 per cent than to the variability of the area which has a coefficient of variation of only 15 per cent. This very high variability can be reduced and the rain-fed wheat production in Syria somewhat stabilized by the limitation of the dry-farming of wheat to those rain-fed zones where the average rainfall intensity lies between 250 and 500 mm. per year.

405. The intensity of rainfall shows a very high level of variability in time and in space. The coefficient of variation of the Mohafazat average rainfall is 67 per cent while the coefficient of variation over time within the Mohafazat varies

169

170 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

from 25-5Ο P e r cent. The var iabi l i ty of the other climatic variables used in t h i s study is not very high between Mohafazat (C.V. = 7 per cent, 23 per cent and 12 per cent for relat ive humidity, days of rain and temperature respectively) and i s even lower over time (e.g. for Total Syria the C#V!s are 5*6 per cent, 20 per cent and 4.6 per cent respectively).

406. The three climatic variables: ra infal l in tensi ty , re la t ive humidity and num-ber of days of ra infal l are very highly correlated in the Mohafazat and for Total Syria ( r varies from .78 to .95) which makes them almost inter-changeable and l i t t l e gain is to be expected by including them a l l in regression models. The average temperature i s not significantly correlated with the other three climatic variables and when a slight correlation exists i t i s always negative (increase in the temperature occurs jointly with a decrease in the other three variables) .

407. Early rainfal l ( ra infal l during the months of October-November-December) i s very highly correlated with to t a l rainfal l ( r = .94)· Poor early rainfal l appears in 20 per cent of the cases and the rainfal l improves l a t e r to result in an average to ta l rainfal l in 7 per cent of the cases. Thus, decisions not to sow on the basis of poor early rainfal l may prove wrong in the long run once every three times.

408. Rain-fed wheat yields (Y) for Total Syria are highly correlated with each of the three climatic variables: ra infal l intensity (R), re la t ive humidity (H) and number of days of rainfal l (D). The coefficients of correlation over the period 1958-75 are r = .774, .704 and .740 respectively. The corresponding regression l ines are: Y = -5 + I.715 H Y = -2483 + 49.8 H Y = -25O + 15.4 D However, the dependence of the yield on the climatic variables is not uniform in the different Mohafazat. It is weak in the Mohafazat where the average value of the climatic variable is high.

409· For an early warning and forecasting system, regression models based on different sets of climatic variables were evolved for each of the major rain-fed wheat producting Mohafazat. The efficiency of the models was assumed on the basis of the proportion of the variance of the yield (R^) explained by the inde-pendent variables in the regression or alternatively by the level of the residual standard deviation. Thus, for Total Syria, the most efficient model for an early forecast of the yield in March is: Y = 182 + 3.82 R^ + 3.78 Rp and for a la te forecast of the yield in April: Y = 120 + 3.36 R + 3.72 R + 1.69 Rfl where R_, R_, and RM are the rainfal l in tens i t ies during the months of December, February aria March respectively.

410. Irr igated ordinary wheat production has been increasing over the 18-year period of the study (1958-75). The average yearly increases in area, yield and production are: 1 300 ha . , 66 kg . /ha . , and 10 500 M.T. respectively. During the same period of time the area under i r r igated wheat was 7·9 per cent of the to t a l area and i t contributed 15.5 per cent to the t o t a l production.

411. In the las t four years (1973-76), the increasing trend has become more pronounced: the mean i r r igated area has increased to 10.6 per cent of the to ta l area and the percentage of the production from irr igated wheat has increased to 24.7 per cent. The increase in the production i s not only due to the increase in the i rr igated area but also to the introduction of high-yielding var ie t ies (Mexican e tc . ) of wheat.

Summary and Conclusions 171

412. Irrigated wheat production shows very large year-to-year fluctuations (C.V. = 47 per cent) . This is due partly to a very high var iabi l i ty of the i rr igated area (C.V. = 34 per cent) and partly to a very hi^ i var iabi l i ty of the yield (C.V. m 33 per cent) . While the var iabi l i ty of the area can be reduced or even eliminated completely by s tabi l iz ing the area to be i r r igated (except for an increasing t rend) , t h i s is not so for the var iab i l i ty of the yield which is due to non-identified factors.

413. The contribution of the climatic variables to the fluctuations of i r r igated wheat yields i s not significant and the regression models based on the climatic variables explain less than 1/5 of the variance. On the contrary, i r r igated wheat yields are highly correlated with rain-fed wheat yields (r = .694), a result which can only be explained by the existence of an unknown factor common to both i r r iga -ted and rain-fed wheat and which contributes significantly to the var iabi l i ty of the yie lds .

414· From the analysis of the data on rain-fed, i r r igated and to t a l wheat produc-t ion in Syria over the period 1958-75 ^ i s evident tha t , in the past , i r r iga -ted wheat production has had no s tabi l iz ing effect on to ta l production. On the contrary,instead of decreasing the coefficient of variat ion, the aggregation of i r r igated production to the rain-fed production has increased i t from 40 per cent to 41 per cent.

415. The present per capita demand of wheat for food consumption i s about 158 kg. and the to ta l demand including seeds, losses, e t c . , for Syria i s 1 510 000 M.T. and the combined yearly rate of increase is 3·34 per cent. The projected demand for the next five years i s therefore equal to 1 56Ο 000, 1 613 000, 1 667 000, 1 722 000, and 1 780 000 M.T.

416. A reasonable five-year agricultural development plan to ensure self-sufficiency in wheat production i s proposed. The plan i s based on a re-allocation of the to t a l area (assumed to be kept constant) under wheat between the four types of cultivation in the following way:

- Area under Ordinary rain-fed wheat to be decreased by 100 000 ha. per year - Area under Mexican rain-fed wheat to be increased by 60 000 ha. per year - Area under Ordinary i rr igated wheat to be decreased by 10 000 ha. per year - Area under Mexican i rr igated wheat to be increased by 50 000 ha. per year

This re-allocation of the area under wheat i s in l ine with the Syrian Government policy.

417· Taking into account the average yields of the four types of cultivation; namely 700 kg. /ha . , 1 600 kg./ha. and 2 200 kg. /ha . , such a plan would produce on average a surplus which is expected to increase steadily from 50 000 M.T. to 320 000 M.T. during the next five years.

418. A five-year stock-and-allocation scheme for Syria based on rain-fed wheat production in which only the so-called necessary imports, to complement the expected rain-fed production and bring i t to the level of the demand, were to be procured from the i r r igated production, was investigated for different types of pol ic ies . It was found that in a l l cases, in order to obtain a high level of con-fidence in the success of the scheme (more than 80 per cent) , the i n i t i a l stock to be kept at the s tar t of the scheme would be of the order of 1 200 000 M#T# The probability of success of the scheme varied from 82 per cent to 93 per cent according to the stringency (degree of rationing) of the policy.

419· Another simple stocking policy based on to ta l wheat production (rain-fed and irr igated) in which a stock is kept at the beginning of each year to cover the

172 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East probable deficit of the year was also studied. Tt was found that the volume of such a stock is of the order of 65Ο 000 M.T. for a 90 per cent level of con-fidence in i t s success and of the order of 870 000 M.T. for a 95 P e r cent level of confidence.

420. The study of the combined wheat production in the Sub-region (Syria and East Jordan) shows that the Sub-region has not yet attained self-sufficiency in wheat production but that i t could do so in a few years especially if the plans for the re-allocation of the land to be cultivated under wheat are implemented and if more extensive use of high-yielding var ie t ies of wheat are carried out.

421. Aggregating the wheat production in East Jordan to the production in Syria will not result in the s tabi l iza t ion of wheat production in the Sub-region. This could have happened if the two productions were negatively correlated which is not the case. On the contrary, the y ie lds , productions and precipitations in the two countries show positive significant correlat ions.

422. The present demand for wheat in the Sub-region i s of the order of 1 83Ο 000 M.T.and the combined yearly rate of increase is 3· H per cent. Thus, the demand in 1983 will be about 2 136 000 M.T., a volume which could easi ly be covered by the expected production in the 1982-83 agricultural year and leave a surplus of the order of 100 thousand M.T.

423· A five-year stock-and-allocation scheme for the Sub-region based on rain-fed wheat and in which the so-called necessary imports are to be procured from the i r r igated production of Syria and complemented through external sources was studied. The resul ts are almost identical to those obtained in the corresponding study of Syria. On the basis of an i n i t i a l stock of the order of one million metric tons of wheat, the probability of success of the scheme varied from 16 per cent to 93 per cent according to the type of policy.

424. Since East Jordan produces less than one—half of i t s demand for wheat, a simple stock policy,based on the keeping, at the beginning of each year, of a stock equal to the probable deficit in the production of that year, will require a much larger stock than the one considered in the Syrian case. In fact , the volume of the stock of wheat to be kept i s of the order of 900 000 M#T. for a 90 per cent level of confidence and of the order of 1 150 000 M.T. for a 95 per cent level of confidence.

Annexes to Part II

Annex I

TABLE 1: INSTABILITY OF WHEAT PRODUCTION IN EAST JORDAN (THOUSAND M.T.)

^ T D i s t r i c t

pears ^ ^

1961 1962

! 1963 1964 1965 1966

1967 1968

1969 197Ο

1971 1972

1973 1974

1975

I r b i d

27.1

45.5 36.7 72.0

81.4 29.3 91.1 53.6 79.8 23.8 63.Ο 60.1 18.8

93.7 15.8

Balqa

11.6

9.3 7.0

16.5

11.7 17.6

9.2 8.2 7.0

3.5 11.4 13.9 4 .3

13.0

6.3

Amman

41^5 29.7

1 6.0 66.8

69.5 15.8 60.8

28,3 68.5 12.1 j 58.8

53.6 12.1

64.4 11.2

Karak

21,1

9.9 .4

62.6 55.Ο 81.1 25.2

11.3 27.4 5.3

14.7 20.7

2.4 45.4 20.1

Ma'an

4.7 2.1

-6.8

6.9 .6

9.9 10.1

18.3

.5

.6

12.7 -

10.4

8.5

Total East Jordan

106.1

95.5 5O.O

224.8

224.5 71.5

196.I

111.5 201.1

45.2

148.5 I6O.9

37.7 226.9

61.9

173

174 Annexes

TABLE 2: MEAN, STANDARD DEVIATION (S.D.) AND COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION (C.V.) OF RAINFALL IN 62 STATIONS OF EAST JORDAN

Station

A g r o -c l i m a t i c zone

MOO mm.

100-199 mm.

200-299 mm.

300-399 mm.

D i s t r i c t

I r b i d I r b i d Ma 'an Maf an Ma 'an Ma 'an Ma 'an

I r b i d I r b i d I r b i d Amman Amman Karak Ma1 an Ma1 an

I r b i d I r b i d I r b i d I r b i d I r b i d Amman Amman Karak Karak Karak Karak Karak Karak Ma 'an

I r b i d I r b i d I r b i d I r b i d I r b i d I r b i d Amman Amman B a l q a Karak Karak Karak Karak

Code

111 112 49

104 105 106 107

74 77

110 78 88

109 102 103

43 44 64 72 73 84 87 89 95 96

I 97 i 98

100 101

41 59 63 71 75* 76 86 83 45 91 92 93

I 94

Name

H5 H4 Aqaba Mudawwara Ma ' an J a f r J u r f E l D a r a w i s h

Mafraq Sukhnah Urn E l Q u t t e i n Z a r q a Muwaqqar Qat r a n e Wadi Musa Ras EnNaqab

Wadi K u f r i n j a D e i r A l i a Ramtha Midwar R ihab Amman J i z a Dhiban Mazar K h a n s i r a T a f i l e B u s e i r a Dana Shoubak

Wadi Z i q l a b Hawwara Nu ' a ime J e r a s h Rumman * A l l u k Madaba Amman Wadi S h u ' e i b Hemud Rabba Ain B i s a s Kerak

Mean

74.8 80.8 36.3 20.3 38.7 31.5 57.6

153.2 171.2 188.8 127.6 177.0 103.8 175.6 136.2

267.3 281.1 274.4 218.5

I235.2 277.4 203.2 261.6 299.6 27Ο.7 266.3 263.2 249.3 289.6

,351.8 345.3 344.0 347.7 285.7 374.3 315.8 361.8 355.0 , 3ΟΟ.5 329.Ο :

,331.0 j 339.6 I

|

S.D.

38.5 27.9 25.9 18.8 21.4 22.8 23.Ο

54.8 62.2 75.6 48.2 70.8 47.9 97.5 61.5

79.3 94.0 8^.7 89.3 75.5

102.6 78.9 99.7

119.3 157.8 172.6 129.4 137.2 125.4

96.8 103.8 118.6 103.4 106.2 151.5 121.6 139.2 124.3 157.8 126.6 141.0 145.4

C.V.

51.5 34.5 71.3 92.6 55.3 72.4 39.9

35.8 36.3 40.0 37.8 40.0 46.1 55.5 45.2

29.7 I 33.4 31.2 40.9 32.1 37.0 38.8 38.1 39^8 58.3 64.8 49.2 55.Ο 43.3

36.4 I 30.1 34.5 29.7 37.2 40.5 38.5 38.5 35.0 52.5 38.5 42.6 42.8

Annexes 175

TABLE 2: (Concluded)

Agro-c l ima t i c zone

400-499 mm.

500 mm.+

S t a t i o n

D i s t r i c t

I r b i d I r b i d I r b i d I r b i d I r b i d I r b i d I r b i d I r b i d I r b i d I r b i d Amman Amman Amman Balqa Balqa

I r b i d I r b i d I r b i d I r b i d I r b i d

Code

51 52 53 54 55 56 57* 58 61 62 79 82* 85 80* 81*

65 ! 66 67 68 70

Name

Um Qeis Kufr Sum Hart a Kharja Taiy iba Kuf r Yuba I rbed (school )* Irbed ( a g r . ) Deir Abi Sa 1 id Kufr Awan Jubeiha Wadi S i r* Na 'ur S we i l eh* Sa l t*

Ibbin I s h t a f e i n a Ajlun Kufrinja E l K i t t a

Mean

464.9 498.Ο 430.3 422.5 496.7 473.9 366.8 454.0 435.5 475.1 438.2 512.8 486.6 527.1 554.4

552.9 593.3 615.1 574.9 521.7

S.D.

IO9.6 I5O.2 120.6 124.6 I32.O 125.2 116.6 132.2 121.7 125.8 144.4 I87.4 161.6 174.9 177.4 I

153.2 158.9 182.5 140.0 153.3

c.v.

23.6 30.2 28.0 29.5 26.6 26.4 31.8 29.1 27.9 26.5 33.0 36.5 33.2 33.2 32.0

27.7 I 26.8 29.7 24.4 29.4

S t a t i o n s not corresponding t o t h e ag ro -c l ima t i c zone

176 Annexes

TABLE 3: PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF LEVELS OF RAINFALL IN DIFFERENT ZONES OF EAST JORDAN

Level of Rainfall

0 - 49 mm.

50-99 mm.

100 - 149 mm.

150 - 199 mm.

200 - 249 mm.

25Ο - 299 mm.

300 - 399 mm.

4OO - 499 mm.

hOO - 599 mm.

600 - 699 mm.

700 - 799 mm.

8OO mm. +

I

Arid Zone with an average of

100mm. (1)

.143

.424

.282

.109

.032

.008

.002

150mm. (2)

.036

.224

.303

.224

.122

.056

.031

.004

Marginal Zone with an average of

200mm. (3)

.009

.100

.213

.238

.187

.121

.103

.024

.005

300mm. (4)

.017

.067

.131

.169

.170

.255

.124

.047

.014

.006

Semi-Arid Z o n e ! with an average of

400mm. (5)

.007

.026

.063

.104

.276

.250

.155

.074

.030

.015

500mm. (6)

.014

.029

.141

.233

.236

.171

.099

.077

l

(l) For example the area around Qatrane (Karak District)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5) (6)

Mafraq (Irbid)

Jiza (Amman)

Madaba (Amman), Mazar and Hemud (Karak) Alluk and Kharga (irbid)

Wadi Sir (Amman) Alluk and Kharge (irbid)

Annexes 177

TABLE 4 : CO-VARIATICN OF WHEAT PRODUCTION, YIELD, AREA AND TOTAL RAINFALL IN EAST JORDAN, 1961-75

Year

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

! 1967 1968

1969 1970

1971 1972

1973 1974

1975

Production 'OOP M.T.

106.1

96.5

5O.O

224.8

224.5

71.5

196.1

111.5

201.1

45-2

148.5

I6O.9

37.7

226.9

61.9

Yield Kg./Ha.

506

434

320

971

1002

416

868

510

968

371

686

846

276

964

442

Area Ha.

209.7

222.5

156.6

231.5

224.0

172,0

226,0

218.4

207.7

121,4

216.5

190.2

136,5

235-5

140.1

Rainfall mm.

357

335 1 235

474

481

293

554 350

439

305

409

421

216

516

329

178 Annexes

TABLE 5A: RAINFALL BY MONTHS ANT) WHEAT YIELDS IN EAST JORDAN

Year

1960-61 1961-62 1962-63

! 1963-64 1964-65 1965-66 1966-67 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75

November

52.7 17.3 4.4 38.9 69.0 55.1 38.3 75.0 36.8 37.5 11.9 33.8 35.Ο 62.4 28.8

December

31.4 172.1 35.3 168.0 59.0 44.5 152.7 48.7 91.7 15.4 56.2 157.3 14.3 32.4 57.4

Rainfall in mm.

January

106.7 60.7 3Ο.5 79.8 217.0 35.3 134.1 139.6 124.5 9Ο.8 48.1 48.Ο 100.0 253.4 27.6

February

121.1 66.7 96.Ο 107.9 42.8 58.Ο 55.0 41.7 21.5 25.3 62.7 70.9 17.8 99.2 156.3

March

18.6 1.4

35.3 70.6 45.1 99.1 162.1 16.9 147.3 119.9 55.6 81.9 47.2 33.1 51.6

April

26.3 16.3 33.6 8.3 47.8 .8

11.7 27.8 17.1 15.9 174.8 28.9 2.1 35.0 6.9

Yield kg/ha.

506 434 320 971 1002 416 I 868 ! 510 968 371 686 846 276 964 424

TABLE 5B: RAINFALL BY MONTHS AND WHEAT YIELDS IN IRBID DISTRICT

Year

1960-61 1961-62 1962-63 1963-64

. I964-65 1965-66 1966-67

I 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1970-71

i 1971-72 i 1972-73 ! 1973-74 1974-75

Rainfall in mm.

November

67.8 17.6 8.7 59.0 95.1 66.9 42.3 78.3 35.2 55.0 9.0 40.1 31.4 70.8 23.6

December

42.9 218.5 61.1 100.9 58.9 56.8 191.Ο 65.7 116.2 20.9 63.3 135.1 15.1 36.8 51.5

January

IO9.9 72.4 51.3 78.4 151.9 38.9 15Ο.2 155.9 161.6 II6.O 65.5 63.4 104.4 251.4 28.5

February

104.1 78.0 111.9 125.3 55.5 64.3 68.1

35.5 27.8 34.0 93.6 78.7 20.4 93.9 154.9

March

23.8 2.6 49.0 87.4 39.5 IO5.4 181.4 17.6 126.8 143.6 51.3 63.7 67.0 42.5 60.9

April

32.0 19.6 47.5 9.1 48.3 2.0 18.5 27.4 13.3 18.2 168.3 29.9 3.8 37.1 10.0

Yield kg/ha.

354 479 436 861 1008 438 1094 683 1005 420 922 934 384 1030 424

Annexes 179

TABLE 5C: RAINFALL BY MONTHS AND WHEAT YIELDS IN AMMAN DISTRICT

Year

1960-61 1961-62 1962-63 1963-64 1964-65 1965-66 1966-67 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75

Rainfall in mm.

November

51.6 13.3 2.8 35.6 56.4 39.5 44.7 69.8

32.9 23.4 10.8 32.9 38.5 58.8 37.7

December

25.7 163.4 25.4 174.1 47.6 42.7 142.5 46.8 75.3 13.8 46.9 139.1 9.6 29.1 42.6

January

108.0 57.1 18.7 77.6 166.2 34.7 150.9 138.3 121.4 83.0 40.6 46.5 102.3 254.Ο 25.1

February

125.4 81.4 83.4 92.5 42.7 44.1 39.0 36.8 24.8 24.9 48.3 63.4 24.7 101.0 15Ο.6

March

14.0 .6

32.9 66.3 42.8 109.1 161.4 20.5 184.5 100.0 55.8 62.8 45.2 24.1 47.8

April

25.4 10.3 32.4 4.2 60.0 .0

2.1 15.1 17.0 16.3 I86.O 31.8 1.3 34.4 7.1

Yield kg/ha.

592 464 291 I 924 | 1045 314 802 377 1125 341 807 871 254 901 348

TABLE 5D: RAINFALL BY MONTHS AND WHEAT YIELDS IN KARAK DISTRICT

Year

1960-61 1961-62 1962-63 1963-64

[ 1964-65 1965-66

! 1966-67 1967-68 1968-69 I969-7O I97O-7I 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74

I 1974-75

November

21.1 21.5 .0

18.0 44.0 71.7 26.2 80.7 43.9 30.7 19.8 21.4 33.9 48.1 19.2

December

18.8 102.4 5.9

263.7 79.3 23.1 88.3 28.6 60.1 8.7 44.8 210.2 22.4 26.8 87.1

Rainfall in mm.

January

81.7 31*0 5.2 77.0 419.3 28.5 68.9 116.9 55.0 52.9 27.7 18.3 86.7 233.4 26.4

February

130.7 27.I 78.1 91.9 15.3 57.0 52.6 62.6 1.8 11.0 20.3 69.1 33.4 80.1 162.0

March

16.9 .0

11.0 38.I 54.3 70.1 129.1 10.0 106.2 108.7 67.6 145.4 8.3 26.8 35.1

April

13.0 19.9 15.0 14.5 35.4 .0

10.4 43.0 20.0 11.8 I46.O 19.1 .5

30.0 .5

Yield kg/ha.

56Ο 253 12

1279 1062 215 613 277 648 314 333 585 113 903 510

180 Annexes

TABLE 5E: RAINFALL BY MONTHS AND WHEAT YIELDS IN BALQA DISTRICT

Year

1960-61 1961-62 1962-63 1963-64 1964-65 1965-66

; 1966-67 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70

I 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75

November

79.7 15.9 2.7 22.4 79.6 41.8 28.6 83.5 40.6 36.2 14.7 51.8 43.6 94.2 52.Ο

December

34.8 198.8 34.4 220.0 5Ο.9 64.9 23Ο.4 40.0 145.6 18.8 96.1 221.1 9.8 49.0 69.7

Rainfall in ram.

January

175.8 93.2 51.6 111.2 231.3 40.8 193.8 I7O.O 161.6 124.3 52.2 72.4 137.8 341.4 39.3

February

189.7 80.3 137.0 152.3 70.4 84.5 64.8 36.9 35.6 31.8 98.6 78.5 21.8 174.0 191.Ο

March

19.7 3.2

48.1 115.3 61.6 113.1 198.Ο 19.7 233.5 142.Ο 71.7 83.9 76.Ο 41.8 79.3

April

37.0 13.3 19.4 4.2 44.5 .0

8.4 41.0 16.4 16.9

282.9 44.3 2.0

52.Ο 9.4

Yield kg/ha,

625 544 502 868 676 517 873 913 754 495 952 1229 542 1353 531

TABLE 5F: RAINFALL BY MONTHS AND WHEAT YIELDS IN FA»AN DISTRICT

Year

196O-6I 1961-62 1962-63 1963-64 1964-65 1965-66 1966-67 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 197Ο-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75

November

14.7 27.0 .0 2.9 12.5 5.7 27.7 39.1 41.6 13.0 4.5 4.8 31.6 14.8 10.8

Rainfall in mm.

December

17.3 72.0 6.2

207.6 65.3 2.9 16.8 10.6 28.7 • 1

37.0 133.0 12.6 10.4 61.5

January

53.0 56.5 .8

63.3 234.9 27.1 45.7 40.3 53.6 24.5 28.5 5.8 29.5 193.7 20.8

February

71.7 7.2 44.3 48.5 .0

59.0 44.4 48.Ο 1.7 .8 9.2 47.1 • 2

84.9 117.8

March

10.4 .0

14.2 10.7 40.0 72.2 67.3 10.6 87.9 53.2 3.6 96.5 1.2 24.5 15.9

April

21.1 19.4 25.3 10.3 14.0 .0

33.8 80.1 41.6 7.4 77.6 13.4

I -9 10.5 1.5

Yield kg/ha.

711 301 0

908 914 110 643 677 1157

73 I 33

I 715

I ° 797 ί 438

Production thousand M.T. Irbid, Balga, Amman^arak, Ma'an

O

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Production East Jordan

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182 Annexes

Production Area

220

210

200

190

180

170

160

150

^ 140

■σ 130 c I 120 o

*~ MO a o . •^ 100 o

I 90

80

70

60

50 I

40

30

20 I

10

0 I

h I 100

GRAPH 2 . Wheat i n E a s t J o r d a n : C o - v a r i a t i o n of P r o d u c t i o n , A r e a , Y i e l d and R a i n f a l l

σ

X - >-

1300

1200

1 100

1000

90

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80

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Annexes 183

184 Annexes

FORMULAE FOR FORECASTING THE YIELD OF WHEAT IN EAST JORDAN ON THE BASIS OP THE REGRESSION OF YIELD OF RAINFALL, 1961-74 V AND APPLICATION TO

FORECAST THE YIELD TIT 1975

Formulae for t he successive mul t ip le r egress ion of y i e l d on monthly r a i n -f a l l

Y=492+3.96N

Y=215+5.82N+2.62D

Y=158-.39N+2.74D+2.86J

Y=119-.34^+2.68D+2.86J+.65F

Y--82-.23N+2.21D+2.89J+2.12F+2.05M

Y=-279+2.44N+2.56D+2.53J+2.09F+2.39^ +2.47A

Appl ica t ion

Months of Rainfall

N

N,D

N,D,J

N,D,J,F

N,D,J,F,M

N,D,J,F,M,A

Multiple R

.299

.625

.797

.801

.862

.929

Forecast

Y

606

533

383

444

554

475

S.D.

273

233

189

198

178

139

Formulae for the success ive l i n e a r r eg re s s ion of y i e l d on cumulative monthly r a i n f a l l

Y=492+3.96N Y=330+2.74(N+D) Y=122+2.39(N+D+J) Y=33+2.17(N+D+J+F) Y=-13Ο+2.22(N+D+J+F+M) Y=-300+2.48(N+D+J+F+M+A)

3· Formula for t h e mul t ip le r eg res s ion of y i e l d on t h e r a i n f a l l in December and January

Y=149+2.75D+2.78J

Appl ica t ion

Months of ! Rainfall

IN

|N+D

IN+D+J

N+D+J+F

N+D+J+F+M

N+D+J+F+M+A

Linear r

.299

.577

.776

.764

.850

.928

Forecast

Y

606

567

393

619

584

514

S.D.

273

234

181

185

151

107

Appl ica t ion

Months of Rainfall

D,J

Multiple R

.797

Forecast

Y

384

S.D.

180

Y The Rainfa l l da ta are averages of a number of readings of meteorological s t a t i o n s as explained in paragraphs 213-214·

1 .

2.

Annexes 185

FORMULAE FOR FORECASTING THE YIELD OF WHEAT IN AMMAN DISTRICT ON THE BASIS OF THE REGRESSION OF YIELD OIT RAINFALL, 1961-74 Y AND APPLICATION TO FORE-

CAST THE YIELD IN 1975

1. Formulae for t h e success ive mul t ip le r eg ress ion of y i e l d on monthly r a i n f a l l

Y-525+3.43N

Y=328+4.43N+2.30D

Y=282-3.38N+2.48D+3.19J

Y=293-3.411T+2.50D+3.20J-,22F

Y= 58-2.38N+1.95E+2.82 J+2.04P+2.12M Y=-300+2.25N+2.48D+2.22J+2.78F+2.91M

+3.72A

Appl icat ion

Months of Rainfall

k N,D

;N,D,J

N,D,J,F

N,DtJtF,M

Ν,ϋ,σ,Ρ,Μ,Α

Multiple R

.216

.484

.65Ο

• 651

.713

.879

Forecast

Y

655

603

340

385

531

531

S.D.

312 Ί 292

266

280

274

199

2. Formulae for t h e success ive l i n e a r r eg res s ion of y i e l d on cumulative monthly r a i n f a l l

Y=525+3.43N Y=392+2.43(N+D) Y= 228+2.04(M)+J) Y+185+1.75(N+D+J+F) Y=11+1.93(N+D+J+F+M) Y=-264+2.5 2(N+D+J+F+M+A)

Appl ica t ion

Months of Rainfall

N

N+D

N+D+J

N+D+J+F

N+D+J+F+M

N+D+J+F+M+A

Linear r

.216

• 466

.602

.572

.688

.854

Forecast

Y

655

587

444

633

597

519

S.D.

312

283

255 262

232

166

3. Formula for t h e mul t ip l e r eg res s ion of y i e l d on t h e r a i n f a l l in December and January

Y=233+2.50D+2.42J

Appl ica t ion

Months of Rainfall

P,J

Multiple R

.635

Forecast

Y

401

S.D.

258

7 The Rainfa l l da ta are averages of a number of readings of meteorological s ta t ions as expla ined i n paragraphs 213-214.

186 Annexes

FORMULAE FOR FORECASTING THE YIELD OF WHEAT IN IRBID DISTRICT ON THE BASIS OF THE REGRESSION OF YIELD ON RAINFALL, 1961-74 Y AND APPLICATION TO FORE-

CAST THE YIELD IN 1975

1. Formulae for t h e successive mul t ip le r eg res s ion of y i e l d on monthly r a i n f a l l

Y=637+1.66N

Y=390+3.24N+2.03D

Y=236+.33N+2.96D+2·68J

Y=111+.32N+1.87D+2.90J+1.53F

Y=-24+.47N+1.69D+2.88J+2.18F+1.38M

Y = - 2 7 4 + 3 . 4 7 N + 2 . 4 6 D + 2 . 4 5 J + . 9 3 P + 1 . 9 9 M + 3 . 9 5 A |

Appl ica t ion t - - - J

Months of Rainfall

N

N,D

N,D,J

N,D,JfF

N,D,J,F,M

NfD,J,F,M,A

Multiple R

.154

.437

.643

.665

.705

.848

Forecast

Y

677

571

420

533

508

309

S.D.

294

280

25Ο

257

259

207

Formulae for t h e success ive l i n e a r r eg res s ion of y i e l d on cumulative monthly r a i n f a l l

Y=637+1.66N Y=441+2.08(N+D) Y=200+2.11(N+D+J) Y=55+2.10(N+D+J+F) Y=-24+1.91(N+D+J+F+M) Y=-278+2.36(N+D+J+F+M+A)

Appl ica t ion

Months of Rainfall

N

N+D

N+D+J

N+D+J+F

N+D+J+F+M

N+D+J+F+M+A

Linear r

.154

.423

.629

.639

.677

.810

Forecast

Y

677

597

419

597

588

500

S.D.

294 I 27Ο

232

229

219

174

3. Formula for t h e mul t ip le r eg ress ion of y i e l d on t h e r a i n f a l l in December and January

Y=249+1.92D+2.75J

Appl ica t ion

Months of [Rainfall

D,J

Multiple R

.642

Forecast

Y

424

S.D.

238

7 The Rainfa l l da ta are averages of a number of readings of meteorological s t a t i o n s as explained in paragraphs 213-214.

Annexes 187

FORMULAE FOR FORECASTING THE YIELD OF WHEAT IN KARAK DISTRICT ON THE BASIS OF THE REGRESSION OF YIELD ON RAINFALL, 1961-74 Y AND APPLICATION TO FORE-

CAST THE YIELD IN 1975

1. Formulae for t h e success ive mul t ip le r eg res s ion of y i e l d on monthly r a i n f a l l

Y=517-.15N Y=182+3.11N+3.18D

Y=116-.36N+3.06D+2.09J Y-29-.13N+2.92D+2.13J+1.68F Y=-62-.39N+2.59D+2.26J+2.28F+1.45M

Y=-82-.33N+2.59D+2.24J+2.35F+2.46M+.62A

2· Formulae for the successive linear regression of yield on cumulative monthly rainfall

Y=517-.15N

Y=172+3.18 (N+D)

Y=66+2.26(N+D+j)

Y=-45+2.25(N+D+J+F)

Y—161+2.21 (N+D+J+F+M) Y=-202+2. 15(N+D+J+F+M+A)

3 . Formula for t h e mul t ip le r eg res s ion of y i e l d on t h e r a i n f a l l in December and January

Y=103+3.09D+2.06J

Appl ica t ion

Months of Rainfall

N

N,D

N,D,J

N,D,JfF

NfD,JfF,M

N,D,J,F,MfA

Multiple R

-.010

.638

.867

.884

.900

.901

Forecast

Y

514

519

430

610

634

629

S.D.

384

309

209

207

205

218

Appl ica t ion

Months of Rainfall

N

N+D

N+D+J

N+D+J+F

N+D+J+F+M

N+D+J+F+M+A

Linear r

-.010

.638

.822

.853

.877

.863

Forecast

Y

514

517

366

618

568

510

S.D.

384

296

218

200 !

185 194

Appl ica t ion

Months of Rainfall

D,J

Multiple R

.867

Forecast

Y

426

S.D.

200

1/ The Rainfa l l da ta are averages of a number of readings of meteorological s t a t i o n s as explained in paragraphs 213-214.

188 Annexes

ANNEX

II TO PART II

TABLE

1: PRODUCTION OF RAIN-FED ORDINARY WHEAT (IN THOUSAND M.T.)

FOR TOTAL

SYRIA AND

MAJOR

PRODUCING

MOHAFAZAT, 1958-75

I Year

I .

Hasakeh

Aleppo

Hama

Dira

Idleb

Raqqa

Horns

Sweida

Syria

1958

I 488

238

?1

37

35

20

35

14 T

10

1959

547

325

61

35

9 31

63

23

11

1960

442

282

58

36

39

27

54

24

1961

603

238 112

54

47

39

23

40

20

1962

1 154

301

183

99

75

70

33

82

38

1963

1 031

392 I

177

140

42

69

63

41

8

1964

1 000

372 I

96

66 125

43

62

29

20

1965

974

400

j 102

59

93

71

91

50

30

1966

503

158

49

29

31

1T

13

24

15

1967

972

304

95

80 121

88

67

63

38

1968

518

243

37

49

41

22

38

22

21

1969

891

314

111

40

99

59

85

45

37

1970

554

230

155

31

32

36

49

44

25

1971

712

157

139

27

79

93

12

47

36

1972

1 547

595

231

198

93

81

61 131

36 |

1973

310

77

53

31

16

20

- 38

12 j

1974

1 015

417

156

69

50

70

54

64

19 I

1975

965

425

203

14

35

69

107

35

11

Average

790

304

116

61

60

51

48

44

24

Standard

] Deviation

318

121

58

46

36

26

30

29

11

Coefficient

of Variation

»40

.40

.50

»75

.59

,50

·64

·65

*45

TA

BL

E

2 -

RA

IN-F

ED

W

HEA

T

IN

SYR

IA,

19

58

-75

: A

RE

A,

YIE

LD

, PR

OD

UC

TIO

N,

RA

INF

AL

L,

RE

LA

TIV

E H

UM

IDIT

Y,

DA

YS

OF

RA

IN,

TEM

PER

ATU

RE

! I

Year

1958

1959

l 19

60

1961

1962

1963

19

64

1965

19

66

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

| 19

75

Average

I St andard

Deviation

I Coefficient

of Variation I

Area

Thousand Ha.

1 369

1 323

1 435

1 180

1 248

1 441

1 368

1 152

793

1 114

821

1 136

1 263

1 154

1 250

1 277

1 253

1 368

1 219

179

•15

Yield

Kg./Ha.

356

414

308

510

925

715

731

845

634

873

63Ο

784

439

617

1 238

243

810

705

654

249

.38

Production

Thousand M.T.

488

547

442

603

1 154

1 031

1 000

974

503

972

518

891

554

712

1 547

310

1 015

965

790

318

.40

Rainfall

mm.

280

283

248

290

420

5Ο3

408

419

301

533

481

617

284

367

495

205

425

358

384

113

.29

Relative

Humidity

i 63

60

58

59

65

64

63

61

61

67

68

69

62

63

67

56

65

62

63

3.5

.056

No. of Days

of Rain

48

43

40

48

55

65

60

61

56

77

74

81

53

60

68

40

62

61

59

12

.20

j !

Temperature

Oct. - May

110

104

110

111

110

114

100

105

109

102

105

109

114

106

96

103

101

109

107

5

.046

Annexes 189

190 Annexes TABLE 3: RAIN-FED WHEAT IN SYRIA: MEANS AND STANDARD DEVIATIONS(S.D.)OF THE VARIABLES BY MOHAFAZAT 1958-75

I I

Area

Yield

Production I

Rainfall

Relative

^

- _ .

I Temperature

I m,

J i I ,

/,

m,

J »,

m ί

..

...,.

„,

Days of Ram

r

M h f t

I Thousand ha· kg ./ha.

Thousand M.T.

mm.

Humidity %

°C

Mean I S.D.

Mean

S.D.

Mean

S.D.

Mean

S.D.

Mean

S.D.

Mean

S.D.

Mean

S.D.

Hasakeh 442 90

702

276

304

120

405

137 61

5 68 12

10.4

*6

Aleppo 219 42

517

216

116 58

354

108 67

5 60

9

9.8

.5

Hama

92 28

648

324

61 46

598

225 65

4 69 11

10.7

-5

Dira

79 20

752

381

60 36

297 82 63

4 42

6

10.7

.5

Idleb

62 13

830

363 51 26

518

147 65

4 67 11

10.5

-5

Raqqa

81 36

608

313 48 30

211 78 64

5 61 13

10.3

-6

Horns

80 24

528

279

44 29

307

100 65

3 53

8

10.6

.5

Sweida

43 I

11

589 I 259

24 10

355

106 60

4 47

9

8.2

·6

Damascus

24

8

649

389 17 10

199 62 55

3 45

9

10.7

-5

Tartous

24

4

819

341 19

9

1 056

283

66

3 78 12

12.6

·6

Lattakia

20

5

906

347 17

7 Π 035

255 69

3 85 13

12.9

.4

Deir Ezzor

8

6

794

535

7

6

136 66 56

4 42

9

11.8

.5

Total Syrian 219

179

654

249

790

318

TABLE 4: REGRESSION OF THE YIELD OF RAIN-FED

WHEAT IN SYR

IA ON CLIMATIC

VARIABLES:

OPTIMUM

REGRESSIONS^/ BY M

OHAFAZAT

r IEL]

Moh

afaz

at

Has

akeh

Ale

ppo

Ham

a

Dir

a

Idle

b

Raq

qa

Hor

ns

Sw

eida

Dam

ascu

s

Tar

tou

s

Lat

tak

ia

Dei

r E

zzor

To

tal

Sy

ria

Rai

nfa

ll

by

mon

ths

Y

No.

6 5 4 7 4 3 3 3

1

Des

igna

tion

FDM

M'N

O

DM

'OM

F

AD

FM

ANDM

» JM

F

DJA

F

DNF

M'M

D

DFM

R2

.685

.611

.756

.618

.763

.545

.508

.646

Rel

ativ

e H

umid

ity

by

mon

ths

No.

7 4 5 5 4 3 4

Des

ign

atio

n

AFD

JNO

M

DN

M'A

AN

M· O

M

AJD

MN

FNA

M»

M'M

J

M'F

A

R2

.545

.695

.626

.566

.508

.589

.571

Day

s of

R

ain

by

mon

ths

No.

4 6 5 5 3 4 5 3

Des

ign

atio

n

FM· J

M

DNFM

AJ

FNA

DO

DM1 O

AF

AMD

DMNM

»

DN

M'F

J

FJA

R2

.587

.585

.761

.611

.550

.768

.754

.640

Tem

pera

ture

by

m

onth

s

No.

5 6 4 3 5 2 6

Des

ign

atio

n

M» J

DM

F

AM

' OJN

M

M'F

DO

JDM

FDA

NJ

M» F

AD

M' M

FO

R2

.525

.671

.579

.518

.570

.533

.534

Rai

n,

Hum

idit

y,

Day

s!

earl

y,

mid

, la

te

Z/\

No. 3 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 2 2

Des

ign

atio

n

H3D

2R3

H3D

3R3D

1R1H

2 H

3H2H

1D1R

2 H

3D1R

3H1R

1 R

3D2D

3R1H

1

D3R

1R2D

2H1

R1D

3H3D

3H2D

2

WlW

2

H3H

2

H3H

2

R2

.558

.61

4

.529

.622

.633

.586

.630

.848

.538

,.61

6

Expl

anat

ory

Notes:

V 0, N, D, J, F, M, A, M' represent the months

October,

November,

December,

January,

February,

March,

April and May respectively.

3/ R ,H ,D re

pres

ent the rainfall, the relative

humidity and the number of days of rai

n respectively for the

peri

od October-November-December.

R9,H9,D9

repr

esen

t the rainfall, the relative

humidity and the number of days of rain

respectively for the

peri

od January-February.

R~,H

«,D«

re

pres

ent the rainfall, the relative

humidity and the number of days of rain

respectively for the

. pe

riod

March-April-May.

-2/ The opt

imum

re

gres

sion is the one tha

t reduces the variance of the yield

(and consequently, the residual

. st

anda

rd deviation) to its maximum

value

(i.e. maximises the value of R2)·

5/

Empt

y cells

mean

that,

even

using all the variables, the reduction of the variance is les

s than

one-half

ana

thus is of lit

tle

value.

Annexes 191

192 Annexes

TABLE 5: "WHEAT IN SYRIA - CONTRIBUTION OF CLIMATIC VARIABLES (C.V.) TO THE FLUCTUATIONS OF THE YIELDS OF RAM-FED ORDINARY V/HEAT

Average Yield = 654 Kg./Ha. Standard Deviat ion = 2 4 9 Kg./Ha.

C l i m a t i c V a r i a b l e s

RAINFALL

By months a c c o r d i n g t o i m p o r t a n c e By s u c c e s s i v e months By p e r i o d s ( e a r l y , m i d , and l a t e )

; T o t a l a t end of F e b r u a r y 1 Y e a r l y T o t a l

RELATIVE HUMIDITY

By months a c c o r d i n g t o i m p o r t a n c e By s u c c e s s i v e months Average a t end of F e b u r a r y Y e a r l y Average

DAYS OF RAIN

By months a c c o r d i n g t o i m p o r t a n c e By s u c c e s s i v e months T o t a l a t end of F e b r u a r y Y e a r l y T o t a l

AVERAGE TEMPERATURE

By months a c c o r d i n g t o i m p o r t a n c e By s u c c e s s i v e months Average a t end of F e b r u a r y Y e a r l y Average

[RAINFALL, HUMIDITY AND DAYS OF RAIN ( e a r l y , mid , l a t e )

A c c o r d i n g t o i m p o r t a n c e C h r o n o l o g i c s u c c e s s i o n R a i n f a l l t h e n Humid i ty t h e n Days

Number of C . V ' s u s e d

3 5 3 1 1

4 6 1 1

3 8 1 1

6

8 1 1

2 8 3

L

C o n t r i b u t i o n of C . V ' s t o V a r i a n c e : R 2 1/

.646

.636

.557

.420

.600

.571 • 463 .183 • 496

.6/}0

.611

.355 • 547

• 534 .478 . 0 8 4 .201

. 616 • 498 .553

R e s i d u a l S .D.

154 157 172 195 162

169 191 232 182

155 164 206 173

178 190 246 229

160 186 172

R e s i d u a l / ^ S .D. y S

/ S .D.

,62 .63 .69 .78 .65

.68

.77

.93 • 73

• 62 .66 .83 .69

.71 • 76 .98 .92 |

.64

.75

.69

Y The optimal value of R , i . e . t he one which minimises t he Residual Standard Devia t ion.

Annexes 193

TABLE 6: METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS

Mohafazat

Hasakeh

Aleppo

Hama

Dira

Idleb

Raqqa

Homs

Swaida

Damascus

Tartous

Lattakia

Deir Ezzor

(Relative Humidity, Days of Rain Rainfall ( Temperature

Code

30 31 4 32

8 42 21 22 11 7

19 20 10

3 23 12 6 44

36

16 17 18

33 35 34

37 9 15 13 14 43

25 41 27 40 26

24 1 5 2

28 39

Name I

Hasakeh. Kamishlie Malkiyeh Ras El Ein

Izaz Afreen El Bab Membe j Jarablus Ain El Arab

Hama Salamiyeh Missiaf

Izra

Idleb Harem Jisr El Shoghour Ma'rat El Nufman

Raqqa

Homs Rast an Palmyra

Swaida Shahba Salkhad

Damascus Douma Qatana Zabadani Nabek Kutaifeb

Tartous Banias Safita Dreikeesh Sheik Bader

Lattakia Hiffel Jableh El Kirdana

Deir Ezzor Mayadeen Abou Kama!

Code

30 31

22

19

3

23

36

18

34 37

25

27

28

I 2?

Name

Hasakeh Kamishlie

Aleppo

Membe j

Hama

Izra

Idleb

Raqqa Tel Abyad

Qattineh

Palmyra

Salkhad

Damascus

Tartous

Safita

Mina El Baida

Deir Ezzor

[ Abou Kama! |

194 Annexes

TA

BL

E

7:

YIE

LD

(K

G/H

A)

AN

D

PRO

DU

CT

ION

(I

N

HU

ND

RE

D

M.T

.)

OF

IR

RIG

AT

ED

O

RD

INA

RY

WH

EAT

FO

R T

OT

AL

SY

RIA

A

ND

M

AJO

R-P

RO

DU

CIN

G

MO

HA

FAZ

AT 1

95

8-7

5

j I

Tot

ed S

yria

j

Sei

r E

zzor

T

D

amas

cus

j R

aqqa

[

Ale

ppo

I H

ama

I Y

ear

Yie

ld

IPro

duct

n.

Yie

ld

j P

rodu

ctn]

Yie

ld

IPro

duct

n.

Yie

ld

Pro

duct

n.

Yie

ld

[Pro

duct

n.

Yie

ld

| Pro

duct

nJ

1958

805

Γ

742

I 76

1 17

9 83

9 22

9 75

Ο j

15

0 1

56Ο

39

1

133

102

1 19

59 8

55 8

49

700

203

11

11

396

700

119

871

100

2 60

0 15

6 19

60

981

1 11

4 1

101

404

1 00

5 21

2 1

200

318

845

82 9

01

100

1961 1 133

M 532

1 283

596 1 278

205

1 099

270 1 013

158

732

123

1962 1 298 2 197

850

516 1 155

234

800

236 1 99δ

518

1 517

232

1963

1357

1591

1101

533

871

181 1 440

144

1376

226

1355

205

1964

933

1 004

756

435

1 727

187 1 000 75

952

134

1 064

106

1965 1 129

692

950

267 1 264 95 4 051

215

948

137 2 158

61

1966 1 115

558

1 360

232 1 769

163 333

8 4 °3 64 1 154

43

1967

M 205

769

1 219

278 1 541

189

870 88

1 233

95

1 000

36

1968 1 193

835

p 295

407 1 330

133 1 112 97

684 49 1 000

36

1969 1 444

M 225 1 313

313 1 412

286 1 371

318

840

27 1 399

44

1970

913

704 1 Ο25

275

502 |

89 1 000

62

682

22 1 286

122

1971

M 367 1 342 1 253

376 2 339 |

343

900 78 1 140

205 1 348

107

1972

2508 2 611 2 000

520

548

374 3 078

277 2 924

474 2 376

219

1973

M 249

958

1 086

178

1 444 j

163 1 937

204 1 410

147

901

72

1974 1 811 1 072

1 375 89

2-558

326 1 392

129 1 421

152 2 347 I 137

1975

M 948 1 071

1 325 95 2 262 |

298 1 847

135 1 657

163 1 474

97

Average 1 292 1 159

1 153

328 1 386 |

228 1 382

162 1 220 |

155 1 430

115

Deviation

42δ

539 I 3 °6 154

579 '

91

!

9 °1 93

582 |

137

563

60

j ■ 1 1

j

1

j

1

Sfe vS

it2

*33

·47 i

·27 ·4τ

·42

! ·4 °

! ·65

!

·57 ·48

·88

·39

·52

ι I

ί I

I i

I I

ί I

I I

I

Annexes 195

TABLE 8A: ACREAGE UNDER WHEAT IN SYRIA, 1973-76 (IN THOUSAND HA.)

Year

1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76

Average

Percentage

Rain-fed Ordinary

1 277 1 253 1 368 1 216

1 278

81.2

Rain-fed Mexican

68 119 150 182

130

8.2

I r r i g a t e d Ordinary

77 59 55 34

56

3.6

I r r i g a t e d Mexican

54 106 119 159

110

7-0

Tota l

1 476 1 537 j 1 692 i 1 591

1 574

100.0

TABLE 8P: WHEAT PRODUCTION IN SYRIA, 1973-76 (IN THOUSAND HA.)

Year

1972-73 1973-74 1974-75

I 1975-76

Average

Percentage

Rain-fed Ordinary

310 1 015

965 1 032

83Ο

60.2

Rain-fed Mexican

89 251 181 314

209

15.1

I r r i g a t e d Ordinary

96 107 107 54

91

6.6

I r r i g a t e d Mexican

98 257 255 389

250

18.1

Total

593 1 630 , 1 508 1 790

1 380

100.0

Table 8Y: WHEAT YIELDS IN SYRIA, 1973-76

Year

1972-73 i 1973-74

1974-75 1975-76

Average

Rain-fed Ordinary

243 810 705 849

65Ο

Rain-fed Mexican

1 290 2 109 1 207 1 726

1 608

I r r i g a t e d Ordinary

1 249 1 811 1 948 1 609

1 625

I r r i g a t e d Mexican

1 815 2 425 2 143 2 455

2 273

Tota l

401 1 061

961 1 125

877

196 Annexes TABLE 9 - POPULATION AND SUPPLY:

UTILIZATION OF WHEAT IN SYRIA, 1958-75

Population

Production

|

Imports I

Exports I

Seeds |

Waste

Supply for

Supply pen

Thousand

In»- Thousand M.T. Thousand M.T.] Thousand

V.?

A Thousand F,T. Thousand M,T. food consump-

caput

Year

habitants

tion

Kg,/year

_l

Thousand N.T.

|

[1958

Ί 4 280

562

6

185

142

I 28

213

50

1959

4 410

632

72

-

155

I 35

514

117

1960

4 530

553

334

-

132

44

711

157

1961

4 680

756

244

-

142

50

808

173

1962

4 830

1 374

185 212

156

78

1 113

230

1963

4 990

1 190

6

182

148

60

806

162

1964

5 160

1 100

4

197

121

55

731

142

1965

5 330

1 043

57

25

84

55

936

176

1966

5 500

559

283

2

118

42

680

124

1967

5 680

1 049

152

-

89

60

1 052

185

1968

5 870

601

304

5

122

45

733

125

1969

6 060

1 014

128

-

134

57

951

157

197Ο

6 260

624

524

-

125

57

966

154

1971

6 46Ο

846

653

-

135

75

1 289

200

1972

6 680

1 808

338

278

148 102

1 618

242

1973

6 890

593

108

124

154

35

388

56

1974

7 120

1 63Ο

215

3

169

92

1 581

222

1975

7

350

1 50

8 27

0 -

159

91

1 52

8 20

8

tota

l 1

02

080

17

442

3 88

3 1

21

3 2

433

1 06

1 1

6 61

8

[Ave

rage

5

67

Ο

969

21

6 67

1

35

59

92

3 1

63

Sta

nd

ard

~

1

77

#Γ

Ί

23

21

394

Dev

iati

on

l

Annexes 19 7

TABLE 10: AVERAGE WHEAT YIELDS BY MOHAFAZAT

|\Type of Cul-

Mohaf az ax^\^

Hasakeh Aleppo Hama Dira Idleb Raqqa Horns Sweida Damascus Tartous Lattakia Deir Ezzor

Ordinary Rain-fed 1958-75

702 517 648 752 83Ο 608 528 589 649 819 906 794

Ordinary Irri-gated 1958-75

1 104 1 220 1 430 1 206 1 393 1 382 1 525

1 386

1 153

Mexican Rain-fed 1973-76

1 332 1 420 1 839

1 537 1 616 1 436

1 532 1 589

Mexican Irri-gated 1973-76

1 882 2 473 2 206

2 164 2 207 2 530

2 818

2 237

TABLE 11 - RAINFALL AND WHEAT YIELD IN SYRIA AND EAST JORDAN

Year

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

Average

Standard Deviation

Rainfall

Syria

29Ο

420

503

408

419

301

533

481

617

284

367

495

205

425

358

407

110

East Jordan

357

335

235

474

481

293

554

350

439

305

409

421

216

516

329

381

100

Wheat Yield [

Syria

510

925

715

731

845

634

873

63Ο

784

439

617

1 238

243

810

705

713

230

East Jordan

5Ο6

434

320

971

1 002

416

868

510

968

371

686

846

276

964

442

639

270

Wh

ea

t p

rod

uct

ion

'■ r

ain

-fe

d an

d to

tal,

th

ou

san

d M

.T.

OJ o o

-P> o o

en

o o

CD

o o

^1 o o

CD

o o

(D o o

o o o en

O

o o

CD o o

T Irri

ga

ted

whe

at

pro

du

ctio

n

-<

CD

O

en

00

ui σ>

o CD

CD

CD

e»

j

CD

-P>

CD

en

CD

C

D

CD

^

1

CD

C

D

CD

C

D

O

-NJ

^1

^1

■>i

en

—

- —

—

—

—

en

o en

o

en

O

O

o o

O

1 \

>χ

xJ

1 1

v^

> <^

\ <

^T

""-"

-*^ϋ^

""^*

^-^^

_ ^

•^Τ

-^^

^Ξ

ΓΤ

Γ-Ξ

Γ—

. >

—

— —■

*■

.-^"

^.^

. ^

^ ^

"^

^ ^

/ ^

^ .

/'

//

\ ""

=-"

~ζζ

__ΖΤ

"\

-^

^^

^Ξ

ΞΞ

^1 ^

" V

"

--ir

:—^_

Z___

_ X

j.

"^

—■

--

__

__

^-

' --

-jzz

^---

—

<.

-c^

r-'i

d^

~Y

~--

----

---—

—;

—

1 /

1 1 1 »-

H

-—.

B.

^-—

a ÖT

-σ

o Q.

C o o

1 | 1 1

Q 1 CD

Û

.

-σ

o CL

c o o 3

H

o Q

■o —

o C

L

o 5 ZJ

GRAPH le Wheat in Syria: Instability of Production

198 Annexes

Annexes 199

2500 h

2000 h

σ I

| 1500 1 σ en

ω

600

500

400

1000

500

E E

c 300 σ or

h- 200

100

Yield of irr igated wheat

Yield of ra in - fed wheat

Rainfall

\ / v I / \l V

I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1958 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75

Year

GRAPH 2o Wheat in Syria: Yields and Rainfall

200 Annexes

1100 —

1000 l·

900

600

500 700

600 h 400

£ 300 Q_

400

300

200

100

80 h-

n_ 60

70%

68%

^ 6 6 %

| 64% =J -<= 6 2% ω i 60%

h- £ 58% μ

5 6%

54%

Yield of ra in- fed wheat

Rainfall precipitation

Days of rainfall

Relative humidity

J I I I I L I I I I I 1958 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75

Year

GRAPH 3, Wheat i n Syr ia : Co-var ia t ion of Yield , P r e c i p i t a -t i o n , Days of Rainfa l l and Rela t ive Humidity

Annexes 201

Rain-fed wheat yield in Syria

— Wheat yeild in East Jordan

I I I J L _L I I I J_ 1961 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75

Year

GRAPH 4. Co-var ia t ion of the Yields of Rain-fed Wheat in Syria and in East Jordan

202 Annexes

Rainfall in Syria Rainfall in East Jordan

600

500

E E

- 400 o c σ er

300

200

J I L I 1 1 1961 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75

Year

GRAPH 5· Co-variation of Rainfall in Syria and in East Jordan

Part III

FOOD SECURITY ASPECTS OF ARAB TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES

Chapter 11

Structure of Arab Trade in Agricultural Commodities

425. Agricultural commodities occupy an important pos i t ion in Arab foreign trade· On the one hand they const i tute an important source of foreign exchange earnings, and on the other they re f l ec t a s igni f icant drain on these resources. Table 57 h ighl ights the re la t ive importance of agricultural trade in the Arab region·

426. The share of agricultural commodities in t o t a l Arab merchandise imports does not re f lec t any intra-regional differences among Asian and African Arab countries . It i s comparatively higher than the r e l a t i v e shares prevai l ing in North America, Africa, and Latin America where the range i s between 16 and 18 per cent , and s u b t l y higher than the 22-26 per c e n t / s h a r e observed in Western Europe, Asia and the U.S.S.R.

427. Similarly , the share of Arab agricultural exports in t o t a l merchandise exports i s h i^ier than in other regions. For instance, the comparative shares are 15 per cent in Western Europe and the U.S.S.R. , ,22 per cent in Asian developing countries , 34 per cent in Africa, and 44 per c e n t a l / i n Latin America. Furthermore, the com-parative shares are s i g n i f i c a n t l y more in the African Arab countries than in t h e i r Asian counterparts, due to the dominant pos i t ion of cotton exports in Egypt and Sudan on the one hand,and of frui t and vegetable North African exports on the other.

Trade concentration

428. An important aspect of regional trade in agricultural commodities i s the extent of i t s concentration among Arab countries . This i s c l ear ly shown in Table 58.

429» The bulk of the region1 s agricultural exports originate in the African Arab countries . Egypt alone accounts for one-third and Sudan and Morocco equally share another 35 P e r cent. Among the Asian Arah countries only the Syrian Arab Republic has an important share of the region's agricultural exports. The import trade i s shared more evenly between African Arab and Asian Arab countries . Egypt i s the largest importer, but also Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Iraq and Libya take each between 8 and 12 per cent of the agricultural import trade. Of a l l agr i -cultural imports into the region, about 50 per cent i s destined for the o i l expor-t i n g countries .

y Comparative data on non-Arab regions are obtained from Handbook of International Trade and Development S t a t i s t i c s , UNCTAD, Geneva, 1976.

•^Ibid

203

204 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

430. The high concentration of agricultural exports in few Arab countries and the more even distr ibution of agricultural imports among these countries has important implications. F i r s t , the shock of a decline in agricultural export earnings is not evenly distributed. Furthermore, the shock absorption is worsened by the concentration of agricultural exports in few basic commodities such as cotton. The dispersion of agricultural imports among many Arab countries relfects an even distr ibution of vulnerability to food shortages and the di f f icul t ies of devising a region-wide food import and distr ibution system.

Food products in agricultural trade

431. Food products occupy a dominant position in the agricultural imports of Arab countries. I t accounts for 93 per cent of t o t a l agricultural imports. Con-versely, i t plays a smaller role in agricultural exports as shown in Table 59.

432. The concentration of food products in Arab agricultural imports, and i t s lesser weight in agricultural exports should also bel inkedto the concept of trade concentration developed in the previous section. Thus, on the one hand there is high concentration of agricultural exports among few Arab countries coupled with low concentration of agricultural imports. On the other hand, there i s low food concentration in agricultural exports associated with high food concentra-t ion in agricultural imports.

433. The direct implication of these two important aspects of the structure of agricultural trade i s that the ultimate solution to regional food security problems does not rest on the diversion of present trade flows. The long-term action should focus on structural changes in the organization of regional agr i -cultural production to ensure complementarities based on specialization and comparât ive advant age s.

Direction of agricultural trade

434. The direction of agricultural trade i s another aspect of trade structure with direct bearing on regional food security. A very significant feature of trade direction i s the meagre role of intra-regional t rade . For instance, only 13 per cent of agricultural exports are directed to Arab countries. Similarly, an equivalent share i s accounted for by agricultural imports from within the region. By and large, intra-regional trade in agricultural commodities is re la-t ive ly th in .

435· The concept of concentration is also reflected in the direction of agr i -cultural t rade. Thus, Arab agricultural exports are heavily centred on developed markets and centrally planned economies respectively. Exports of food products are mainly directed to Western markets, whereas Eastern Europe receives an important share of Arab non-food products as given in Table 60.

436. There is similar concentration regarding the origin of Arab imports of agr i -cultural commodities. Thus, the developed market economies provide more than 50 per cent of the import food supplies directed to Arab countries as shown in Table 61.

437. As seen, there is heavy concentration on Western countries as sources of supply for major food products, part icular ly cereals, vegetable o i l s , and meat products. There is even an equivalent dependency on these supply sources for non-food products, part icularly tobacco, and agricultural inputs. Thus, Western markets have a strong grip on Arab agricultural trade both as market outlets and as supply sources.

St ruc tu re of Arab Trade in Agr i cu l t u r a l Commodities

TABLE 57: SHARE OP AGRICULTURAL COMODITIES IN TOTAL MERCHANDISE TRADE OP ARAB COUNTRIES, 1971-73 (EXCLUDING OIL)

205

Sub-region

Asian Arab coun t r i e s African Arab coun t r i e s Total Arab coun t r i e s

Share in t o t a l imports (%)

28 28 28

Share in t o t a l expor ts (%)

46 77 66

Source: based on Table 1, Annex I I I , Part I I I

TABLE 58: CONCENTRATION OP TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AMONG ARAB COUNTRIES, 1971-73 (VALUE TERMS)

Agr i cu l tu ra l

Asian Arab Syr ian A.R. Lebanon Others

African Arab Egypt Sudan Morocco Others

To ta l

expor ts (%)

9 4 3

32 18 17 17

16

84

100

Agr i cu l tu ra l imports ($)

Asian Arab

Saudi Arabia 11 I r aq 9 Others 26

African Arab Egypt 13 Alge r i a 12 Morocco 10 Others 19

46 I

54

100

Source: PAO t r a d e mat r ices for Arab c o u n t r i e s , 1971-73 (unpublished)

TABLE 59: RELATIVE SHARE OF FOOD PRODUCTS IN ARAB TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, 1971-73 (VALUE TERMS)

Commodity groups

Food p roduc t s , t o t a l Cereals F r u i t s and vege tab les Vegetable o i l s Others

Non-food p roduc t s , t o t a l T e x t i l e f i b r e s Wine Others

To ta l a g r i c u l t u r a l pro due

Exports

6 23 6

13

43 7

i 2

; t s

9 ( * )

48

5 2 !

100

Imports (%)

93 I

33 9 8

43 7

3 n e g l i g i b l e

4

100 I

Source: FAO t r a d e m a t r i c e s , Op.ci t

206 Food Secur i ty Issues in the Arab Near East

TABLE 60: DIRECTION OP ARAB AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS, 1971-73 (VALUE TERMS)

^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ Di rec t ion

Commodity ^ ^ ^

Agr i cu l t u r a l products Food products Non-food products

Arab coun t r i e s

(*)

13 26

2

Developing market economies (%)

8 4

13

Developed market econoroiea(^)

46 55 38

Cen t r a l l y planned economies(%)

32 I 15 48 I

TABLE 61 : ORIGIN OF ARAB AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS, 1971-73 (VALUE TERMS)

^ " ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ Or ig in —*^^

Commodity ^^*^-*^^^

Agr icu l tu ra l products Food products Cereals Non-food products

Arab coun t r i e s

(*)

13 13 4

10

Developing market economies(^)

22 22 10 24

Developed market economies(%)

54 54 79 58

Cent ra l ly planned economies(%)

11 11 6 8

TABLE 62: DISTRIBUTION OF ARAB COUNTRIES ACCORDING TO THEIR RELATIVE SHARES OF INTRA-REGIONAL TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, 1971-73

Re la t ive shares (%)

Exports

Imports

< 5

Egypt Morocco Alger ia

Alger ia Morocco I r aq Tunis ia Somalia Sudan

5 - 1 0

Egypt Yemen

1 1 - 2 5

Sudan Syr ia Tun i s ia Yemen

Libya Lebanon Syr i a Kuwait Bahrain

26 - 50

S. Arabia Jordan Qatar Mauri tania

51 - 75

Lebanon I r aq Libya

>75

Jordan | Somalia !

Source ( fo r Tables 60-62) : FAO t r a d e m a t r i c e s , Op.ci t

St ruc tu re of Arab Trade in Agr i cu l t u r a l Commodities 207

S t ruc tu r e of i n t r a - r e g i o n a l t r a d e

438. As shown above, i n t r a - r e g i o n a l t r a d e in a g r i c u l t u r a l commodities i s r e l a -t i v e l y t h i n and c o n s t i t u t e s only about 15 per cent of t h e e x t r a - r e g i o n a l t r a d e . However, t he r e l a t i v e shares of i n t r a - r e g i o n a l t r a d e deserve some a t t e n t i o n as demonstrated i n Table 62.

439· I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o note t h a t t he t h r e e coun t r i e s which account for more than two- th i rd s of Arab a g r i c u l t u r a l expor ts con t r ibu te only very marginal ly t o i n t r a - r e g i o n a l t r a d e . For s t r u c t u r a l and i n s t i t u t i o n a l r easons , t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l expor ts of Egypt, Morocco, and Alger ia a re fgeared1 to Western European and Eastern block markets. Generally, the Asian Arab countries are the stronger con-tributors to intra-regional agricultural exports. This is particularly true of countries in the fertile crescent such as Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq.

440. The distribution of Arab countries according to their relative shares of intra-regional agricultural imports is also illuminating. Half the countries obtain less than 11 per cent of their agricultural imports from the region. Furthermore, this group contains the more heavily populated countries such as Egypt, Morocco, Algeria, Sudan and Iraq. Only very few countries with a small population base are reasonably dependent for their agricultural imports on intra-regional sources.

Chapter 12

Structural Weaknesses in Arab Agricultural Trade

441. Arab trade in agricultural commodities protrays certain structural weak-nesses· Some weaknesses relate to trade balance, whereas others pertain to unit values and trends in these values. Further deficiencies are reflected in import and export efficiencies of individual Arab countries.

Arab agricultural trade balance

442· The capacity of agricultural exports to finance agricultural imports varies greatly among Arab countries· This is indicated in Table 63. For the Arab region as a whole, agricultural exports amount to 85 per cent of the value of agri-cultural imports· But most Arab countries diverge widely around this regional average· Only six countries are able to finance their agricultural imports from their exports of agricultural commodities. Obviously, this does not constitute a problem for the oil-rich countries, but it does point to agricultural weaknesses for countries like Jordan and Lebanon, and particularly for least developed coun-tries such as Yemen.

Trend in unit values

443· There are no clear-cut indications concerning the relative superiority of import-export unit values of traded agricultural commodities· Table 64 gives the distribution of imported and exported commodities according to the magnitude of their unit values.

444· Apart from olive oil and the heavily weighted long-staple cotton exports, Arab agricultural exports cluster in the below U.S.S 200/ton unit values, whereas Arab imports of agricultural commodities show a relatively heavy clurter in the above U.S.& 50θΑοη unit values. Obviously wheat is an important exception.

445· A more important observation concerns the trend in unit values of both imported and exported agricultural commodities as given in Table 65. As indicated, world market prices of major Arab agricultural imports have grown at significantly higher rates than those of agricultural exports represented by cotton. Should this trend continue, the region's agricultural trade balance would worsen and the capacity of agricultural exports to finance imports would deteriorate. Therefore structural changes in diversifying agricultural exports and intensifying intra-regional trade in agricultural commodities are needed to offset these structural weaknesses«

209

210 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

Absence of group dynamics

446. Arab trade in agricultural commodities is essentially carried out on a uni-lateral basis. Group action on either the import or export fronts is generally lacking. This seems a bit too ironic, particularly in the face of the great success of group action in selling oil as manifested by OPEC. Thus, Arab coun-tries do not obtain the best terms in procuring their agricultural imports or in marketing their agricultural surplus.

447· As shown in Fig. 1, most Arab countries have paid for their wheat and sugar imports a price (reflected in import unit values) higgler than the average world market price for the period 1971-73· The deviation is more pronounced in the case of sugar imports. Generally, the oil-rich countries are 'less efficient1 importers than other Arab countries as measured by the deviation yardstick.

448. A similar observation is noted with respect to cotton exports from Arab countries. The exceptionally hi^i score of Egyptian cctton exports is due to quality aspects and to the particular market segment in which it is sold.

449. These structural weaknesses raise important questions concerning the role of Arab group dynamics in strengthening the bargaining position of individual Arab countries both in export and import markets. Clearly, much would depend on market structures at both selling and buying ends. For instance, deviations from world market prices could be minimized by collective buying of essential commodities, particularly wheat which has an oligopolistic world market. It is only a small number of grain multinationals which control the major part of the world exports of grain. Only two of such companies control nearly half of the world exports. In such a situation, the price would ultimately depend on the bargaining power of buyers and sellers. Obviously, collective buying by Arab countries would provide a bargaining power which individual countries certainly do not have.

45Ο. Pooling of marketing would also reduce managerial costs. It is now custom-ary for most countries to import wheat on government account, for which most governments send buying missions to grain surplus countries. Maintaining a joint buying mission could easily reduce costs. It may be worthwhile exploring the possibilities of establishing joint marketing organizations preferably combining both marketing and stabilization aspects of the grain trade, with the mandate to deal in agricultural commodities both for reaping the economies of large-scale buying as well as stabilization of supply.

451· Related to the question of pooling of purchases from foreign sources, there are certain other matters which need to be highlighted. In the last three to four years it has come to light that some of the major grain companies have allegedly used various malpractices, e.g. short-weighting, mixing of foreign materials, and misgrading of wheat. It is alleged that such short-weighting was anything between 1.5 to 3 per cent for shipments destined to developing countries east of the Mediterranean.

452. It is not suggested that such malpractices are common occurrences. Besides, the U.S. government as well as the grain companies have been trying in the last two years to enforce fair play in such deals. However, it may be desirable for the Arab countries to conduct their own independent wei^iing and inspection of grains, either at the origin or at destination. Under an agreement to pool purchases, duplication would be reduced and weighing and inspection would be facilitated.

453. Another aspect of group dynamics relates to the establishment of regional or sub-regional stock reserves. Given the present world grain surplus, a good start could be made with grain stock reserves. A stock of 4-6 million tons, supplying between one-quarter and one-half of annual Arab net imports should be adequate.

Arab Agricultural Trade 211

However, with inc reas ing demand for c e r e a l s t h e s i z e of t h e s tock should be con-t i n u a l l y r ev i sed . Furthermore, c e r e a l s can be s to red without se r ious d e t e r i o r a -t i o n only for 2-3 y e a r s , al though t h i s l a r g e l y depends on t h e methods of s torage and the q u a l i t y of s to rage f a c i l i t i e s . There would be need for t u r n i n g over the stock by continuous s e l l i n g of o ld s tock and purchasing gra ins t o c o n s t i t u t e new s tocks .

TABLE 63: RATIO OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS TO AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS, 1971-73

Rat ios (fo)

< 2 5

50 - 60 100 - 140

> 200

"Distr ibut ion of coun t r i e s

Maur i tan ia , Libya, Saudi Arabia, I r a q , Qatar , Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain Lebanon, Alger ia T u n i s i a , Sy r i a , Morocco

Egypt, Somalia, Sudan

Yemen,

TABLE 64: DISTRIBUTION OF IMPORT-EXPORT UNIT VALUES, 1971-73 (U.S.S/ ton)

Unit value

<100 poo - 150 160 - 220 hoo - 800

>800

Arab expor ts

C i t r u s f r u i t s , wine Fresh vegetables

Olive o i l , co t ton

Arab imports

Wheat

Sugar, r i c e , o i l s e e d s Red meat, eggs Tea, cof fee , tobacco

Source : ( for Tables 63 and 64) FAO t r a d e m a t r i c e s , Op. c i t

TABLE 6 5 : TRENDS IN WORLD MARKET PRICES OF MAJOR ARAB AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS AND EXPORTS ( Ü . S . S / T O N )

Commodities

Imports Wheat Rice Sugar Beef

Exports Cotton

I960

63 128 69

736

655

1975

211 1/ 369 45Ο

3 480 y

1 214

Per cent annual inc rease

9.0 7.3

13-3 11.7

4.2

Source: Handbook of I n t e r n a t i o n a l Trade and Development S t a t i s t i c s , UNCTAD, Geneva, 1976

1/ 1974.

Per

cent

/IS

220 -|

200

180

160 J

140

A

120 -I

100 80

60

40 20

FIGU

RE 1 : DEVIATIONS OF UNIT

TRAD

E VALUES

FROM

WORLD

MARK

ET PR

ICES

(1

971-

73 = 100) IMPO

RTS

EXPO

RTS

Bahrain·

Jord

an

Soma

lia * ·Libya

% Mor

occo

•Iraq

Qatar

9 Ye

men

•Sau

di Arabia

* Sudan

• Egypt

Leba

non

WHEA

T

Kuwait

Algeria

Iraq ·

(Syria

* Tunisia

Bahr

ain«

« Yemen

n->*

-^

· Somalia

Qatar

»Lib

ya

* !,

* Sau

di Arabia

„ _Mauritania

. · Sud

an

Jord

an

• Lebanon

SUGAR

Egypt

Yeme

n .

*

Suda

n

• Sy

ria

♦ Ir

aq CO

TTON

Sour

ce:

Impo

rt

and

exp

ort

un

it

valu

es

bas

ed

on F

AO

tra

de

mat

rice

s,

Op

cit«

W

orld

m

arke

t p

rice

s fr

om

Han

dboo

k o

f In

tern

atio

nal

T

rade

, O

p ci

t«

->

212 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

Chapter 13

Magnitude of Food Security Problem

454. The time dimension is very important in gauging the magnitude of the food security problem in the Arab region. The present si tuation may not be as alarming as is generally believed, whereas the long-term outlook poses some r i sks . A brief consideration of both the short and long-term aspects is given here.

Short-term food security outlook

455· Arab countries vary greatly in the degree of the i r self-rel iance in meeting the i r domestic food demand. On a per capita bas is , only Somalia and Morocco have a surplus net food export. The rest of the Arab countries show a continuum of per capita net food imports ranging from U.S.S 3 for Sudan to U.S.S 171 for Kuwait. The continuum is shown in Fig.2.

456. As expected, per capita net food imports are directly related to the agr i -cultural resource endowments of each Arab country. Generally, per capita food imports are high for those countries with a small agricultural resource base. Another important factor i s the income effect. Thus, per capita food imports are significantly higher in the oil-producing Arab countries because of the joint effect of the limited agricultural resource base and the incidence of high income.

457· Contrary to general belief, per capita Arab net food imports are not s ig-nificantly out of l ine with those prevailing in other regions. For instance, in Western Europe they range from U.S.S 30 in Belgium to U.S.S 80-90 in VIest Germany and U.K. 7 . In Japan, the estimate stands at U.S.S 40. Thus, average per capita food imports in Arab countries are not significantly different from most developed and developing countries.

458· Another misconception which needs c lar i f ica t ion concerns the size of the Arab aggregate food import b i l l . In 1971-731 ^ η θ average food import b i l l was U.S.& 1 954 million 5 / . This represents only 4 per cent of the combined GDP of Arab countries. The picture , however, varies greatly for individual Arab countries as can be seen from Table 66.

y Calculated by ECWA for the period 1973-75 from FAO and UN Trade Yearbooks, 1975. 2/ FAO trade matrices, Op. ci t

213

214 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

^ FIGURE 2: PER CAPITA NET FOOT) IMPORTS OF ARAB COUNTRIES (1972-74)

• Kuwait

150

Libya φ « Bahrain

U 100

k 50 Average country per capita net food imports

* Saudi Arabia Jordan · # Lebanon

» Algeria » Iraq

Syria » Tunisia

» Egypt Sudan \ * Mauritania

" * Morocco 1 Somalia

-10.

Source: Based on Table 4j Annex III, Part III.

Magnitude of Food Security Problem 215

459· The capacity to finance the food import b i l l also represents no serious problem at the regional level . The region as a whole in 1974 imported nearly U#S.$ six b i l l ion worth of agricultural commodities, while i t s agricultural exports amount to U.S.$ four b i l l ions ]/. Thus, nearly two-thirds of the agr i -cultural imports were actually paid for by agricultural exports. The net agr i -cultural imports for the region as a whole were equivalent to less than 5 per cent of the t o t a l export earnings of the region. Even if t h i s figure doubled or trebled in the next decade because of increasing demand for food, 10 to 15 per cent of the to ta l export earnings of the Arab world would be required to finance food imports.

46Ο. In order of magnitude, Arab imports of s t rategic food commodities do not appear very alarming. For instance, in 1973-75 "kne Arab region with a to ta l pop-ulation of 142 million imported annually 10 million tons of cereals. By compari-son, one single country l ike Japan with 110 million people imported around 19 million tons. During the same period, three large Western European countries (West Germany, U.K. and I taly) showed a combined average annual import of 19 million tons of cereals.

Long-term outlook

461. The analysis of existing time series in food production and food demand r e -f lects a higher growth rate for the l a t t e r implying a growing food deficit for most Arab countries. The excess i s i l l u s t r a t ed in Pig. 3.

462. Certain countries are not shown in Fig. 3 because the growth rates of t he i r food production and domestic demand during the period 1961-74 are very much af-fected by unusual performance. For instance, Syria1s food production reflected poor performance in the s ix t i e s , whereas Lebanon showed good performance. Present conditions indicate that these tendencies may be reversed in the future.

463. The other countries demonstrate three clear c lus ters . The f i r s t includes Somalia, Morocco, and Sudan where the trend for food production i s to outstr ip food demand. The second cluster contains Tunisia, Egypt and Iraq where the excess of food demand over food production is growing at a moderate magnitude. The th i rd cluster encompasses Yemen, Mauritania and Jordan where the difference in demand and food production growth rates i s more alarming. Thus, at the country level the problem of food security appears to be of direct concern only to a specific seg-ment in the Arab region and varies significantly from one segment to another.

464· At the regional level , the long-term outlook does not seem to be very a lar -ming. Given postulated income and population growth ra tes , i t i s estimated that the to ta l regional deficit in cereals by the end of t h i s century will not exceed another 12 million tons. This estimate is based on a rather conservative pro-jection of an average annual increase in regional wheat production by 2 per cent. If assumptions behind t h i s estimate hold, good^ to ta l Arab imports of cereals would not exceed 25 million tons in the year 2000 %J. This certainly compares favourably with the current Japanese imports of cereals. 1/ Calculated by ECWA from UN Trade Yearbook, 1975. 2/Baldwin, K.D.S. (2977)"Potentialities for Food Production in the Middle East" in

Tuma Elias H. (ed . ) . Pood and Population in the Middle East, Ins t i tu te of Middle Eastern and North African Affairs, Washington, ρ·55ι 1975· According to Baldwin the imports of wheat will increase from 5.4 million in 1975 ^0 14·4 million in 2000 A.D. The increase for rice imports is estimated at 0.5 million. Baldwin's estimate includes Afghanistan and Iran, while i t does not include Algeria, Mauri-tania , Morocco, Somalia, Tunisia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and United Arab Emirates. If one assumes the same average regional rates of growth of output and

216 Food Secur i ty I ssues in the Arab Near East

TABLE 66: HAT 10 OF PER CAPITA FOOD IMPORTS TO PER CAPITA GNP BT ARAB COUNTRIES, 1971-73

Rat ios (/Î)

i κ 3

3 - 8

>8 1— .. _—__

Countr ies

Egypt, Kuwait, Libya, Alge r i a , I r a q , Qatar , Saudi Arabia Morocco, Sudan, Tun i s i a , Sy r i a , Lebanon, Yemen A,R.,Somalia Jordan, Maur i tania , Bahrain

Source: Based on FAO t r a d e m a t r i c e s , Op. c i t . , and World Bank a t l a s

FIGURE 3; EXCESS OF FOOD DEMAND OVER FOOD PRODUCTION GROWTH RATES, 1961-74. (PER CENT)

D-P

12

11 k

• Jordan

4 l·

3 h

2 h

1 L

• Mauritania

# Yemen

Algeria . Iraq

• Egypt

Tunisia

1 L # Sudan • Morocco

L · Somalia

Source: Based on information in "State of Food and Agriculture", 1975 FAO, Rome, pp. 105-106.

7 contd. from previous page -imports for these countries and subtracts the l i k e l y imports of Afghanistan and Iran, additional import requirements of wheat for the region work out at 9 mi l l ion tons and 0.5 mi l l ion for r i c e · I f the proportion between wheat and r ice in the t o t a l cereals were assumed to remain constant - a somewhat questionable assumption i f s t a l l - f e d l ives tock industry develops, requiring b ig quanti t ies of feed g r a i n s -then imports of t o t a l cereals w i l l increase by nearly 12 mil l ion tons . Thus, the region's net import of cereals should not exceed 25 mi l l ion tons in the year 2000.

Chapter 14

Intensification of Intra-Arab trade in Agricultural Commodities

465. As pointed out in paragraph 438, intra-Arab trade in agricultural commodities is re la t ively th in · I t constitutes only 13 per cent of t o t a l Arab trade in these commodities. The scope for intra-regional trade intensification should be con-sidered in both short and long-term contexts. Short-term adjustments refer to possible diversions of trade flows within the existing framework of production structures. Conversely, long-term intensification of intra-regional trade relates to structural changes in agricultural production favouring increased specialization and complementarities based on resource endowments and comparative advantages. This chapter focuses only on possible short-term trade diversions.

Scope for trade diversions

466. A significant proportion of Arab trade in agricultural commodities ref lects concurrent exports and imports of certain products. Some Arab countries export agricultural commodities to non-Arab destinations, while these same commodities are imported by another group of Arab countries from extra-regional sources. An indication of the magnitude of these concurrent flows can be assessed by focusing at tention, f i r s t on commodity groups where the Arab region has a net surplus position. This i s shown in Table 67.

467. The surplus commodity groups offer the natural opportunity for trade flow diversions. Arab exports to non-Arab countries are significantly in excess of Arab imports from extra-regional sources. Could Arab exports be diverted to accommodate fully Arab imports of these Commodity groups? For some items there are market constraints , whereas for others there are structural production con-s t r a in t s . The f i r s t i s i l lus t ra ted by wine, and the second by t e x t i l e f ibres. For instance, much of Arab cotton exports are of the long-staple variety which are tuned to the production f a c i l i t i e s in the industrialized countries. Marketing channels may also limit trade diversions of perishable commodities such as f rui ts and vegetables.

468. Similar considerations should be given to the deficit commodity groups. The 1971-73 picture for t h i s group of agricultural commodities i s given in Table 68.

469· As shown, the Arab region exports to non-Arab countries agricultural com-modities in which there i s heavy dependency on extra-regional sources of importa-t ion . This may seem a bi t too i ronic , but i t ref lects the absence of necessary Arab market integration, part icularly with reference to an adequate market news system and integrated trade channels.

217

218 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East Market constraints and trade diversions

470. The above analysis raises two important questions. F i r s t , whey do Arab countries import from non-Arab sources agricultural commodities for which the region has a significant surplus? Second, why do Arab countries export to other regions agricultural commodities for which the region has a serious deficit? One major consideration concerns differential trade unit values. The Arab region may be importing surplus commodities because of a lower import unit value, and con-versely may be exporting deficit commodities due to a higher export unit value.

471. These hypotheses relat ing to differential market prices may be considered in the light of the findings given in Table 69 which shows comparative unit values for selected surplus and deficit commodities.

472. An obvious weakness of Table 69 i s the high level of aggregation relfected in the selected commodity groups. Pulses include l e n t i l s , chick-peas, and Arab exports to and imports from other regions include different mixes of th i s and other commodity groups. Thus, the observed unit value differentials may be caused by varying commodity group mixes as well as by quality differences. This is clearly in addition to different market prices.

473· However, Table 69 gives orders of magnitude concerning the role of differen-t i a l prices in the intensification of intra-Arab trade in agricultural commodities, It shows that the hypothesis explaining concurrent trade flows in terms of dif-ferential unit values is not conclusive or tenable. The lower import unit values for the surplus groups are part icularly noted for fish products and t ex t i l e f ibres. This i s probably related to different product mixes and quality differences, e.g. imports of ordinary fish products and exports of shrimps; imports of short-staple t ex t i l e fibres and exports of long-staple seedcotton and yarn. The same observa-t ion applies to the deficit group where export unit value is part icularly higher for vegetable o i l s , e .g . , exports of olive oi l and imports of less expensive o i l s .

474· Thus, the explanation of concurrent trade flows i s most probably due to ins t i tu t ional factors and market imperfections such as the lack of an adequate market news system. Therefore, the implementation of a policy on trade flow di -versions geared at intensifying intra-Arab t rade, hinges largely on easing marketing constraints, and on evolving a market news sytem to increase general awareness of supply and demand conditions in the Arab region.

Magnitude of possible intensification

475· As seen, market prices and competition from extra-regional sources are not the only factors l imiting the scope of intra-Arab trade expansion. The i n s t i -tutional factors and the strength of market 'pul l 1 are important forces which should not be undermined. For instance, much of Arab exports of f rui ts and vege-tables are directed from North Africa to Western European markets. Marketing channels and physical distr ibution are closely ta i lored to service these markets. Product pol icies , price pol ic ies , and promotional policies have been h is tor ica l ly attuned to the needs of these markets.

476. Similarly, Arab imports of agricultural commodities from non-Arab sources are conditioned by deep-rooted import mechanisms which cannot be suddenly diverted to competing Arab supply sources. Apart from his tor ical trade t i e s with non-Arab sources, such imports would require adequate processing f a c i l i t i e s , storage and transport capacit ies, and sufficient after-sale servicing, part icular ly in the case of agricultural requis i tes .

Intens i f i ca t ion of Intra-Arab Trade 219

TABLE 67: CONCURRENT ARAB TRADE PLOWS FOR SURPLUS COMMODITIES, 1971-73 (THOUSAND U.S.S)

Surplus groups

Pulses Fruits and vegetables Oil seeds Oil seed cakes Fish products Wine Textile fibres

Imports

18 723 90 628 27 027 9 769 8 244 2 292 48 212

Exports

37 829 346 446 62 141 24 149 23 753 120 123 760 839

TABLE 68: CONCURRENT ARAB TRADE FLOWS FOR DEFICIT COMMODITIES, 1971-73 (THOUSAND U.S.$)

Deficit groups

Cereals Sugar refined Vegetable oils Coffee and tea Red meat Dairy products Tobacco Agricultural requisites

Import s

664 449 294 571 151 079 172 103 42 412 147 422 46 118 213 421

Exports

72 758 8 814 81 467 9 133 6 165 2 137 9 830

207 99Ο

TABLE 69: COMPARATIVE UNIT VALUES FOR SELECTED REGIONAL IMPORTS AND EXPORTS, 1971-73 (U.S.I PER TON)

Surplus group

Commodity

Pulses Fruits and vegetables Oil seeds Oil seed cakes Fish products Textile fibres

Imports

232

142 198 131 134 694

Exports

179

168 219 87 695

1 062

Deficit group

Commodity

Cereals Sugar (refined) Vegetable oils Coffee and tea Red meat Tobacco

Imports

95 188 362 947 878

1 184

Exports

117 79 728 882 961

1 043

Source ( for Tables 67, 68 and 69) Based on FAO trade matrices, Op.c i t .

220 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

477. A detailed examination of the effects of trade diversification requires suf-ficiently disaggregated information for individual commodities traded between dif-ferent countries of the region, together with information on marketing channels, trade routes and transport networks. It i s also important to know the pattern of demand for various products, as well as the i r production poss ib i l i t i es in different countries. For instance, the regional surplus is generally in long-staple cotton, but trade diversion would not be possible unless the t ex t i l e industry is big enough, or unt i l there i s a plan to expand the regional production of t e x t i l e s . However, the regional demand for t ex t i l e s largely consists of coarse cloth which generally does not require long-staple cotton. Therefore, any study of trade d i -version should take into account a number of factors both at micro and macro levels .

478. If i t is assumed that the entire Arab exports of agricultural products (including agricultural requisites and fish but excluding raw cotton), instead of being exported to destinations outside the region are absorbed within the region, then the share of Arab countries in the to ta l agricultural trade of the region would increase from 13 to 30 per cent. However, i t is unreal is t ic to assume tha t , at least in the short run, the region would be able to absorb a l l the surpluses of various commodities such as vegetables and f ru i t s . Therefore, i t i s assumed that for deficit commodities, a l l exports of Arab countries are redirected to Arab destinations, and for surplus commodities only that proportion which is enough to replace imports from non-Arab sources i s redirected while the rest continues to be exported to non-Arab countries. On these assumptions, the share of intra-regional trade in the to ta l agricultural trade of the region would increase from 13 "to £2 per cent. Thus, within the context of existing production structures, the mere redirection of trade would possibly increase the intra-regional trade by anything between 70 and 130 per cent.

Chapter 15

Diversification of Extra-regional Supply Sources

479· Intensification of intra-regional trade in agricultural commodities i s one possible strategy for enhancing Arab food security. Another paral lel approach concerns the diversification of foreign supply sources, part icularly for major food products.

Ins tabi l i ty of food production

480. An important factor favouring careful selection arid diversification of foreign supply sources i s the observed ins tab i l i ty of food production in most Arab countries. This is i l lus t ra ted by the ins tab i l i ty index of cereal production shown in Table 70.

481. Generally, the observed ins tab i l i ty is hi^ier in countries having an impor-tant rain-fed crop sector. This s tresses the importance of selecting foreign supply sources, characterized by re la t ive production s t ab i l i t y and sufficient diversif ication. Such a strategy should avoid a coincidence of a si tuation where a shortfall in Arab food production is coupled with shortage in world market supplies 1/.

482. As shown in Fig.4f fluctuations in wheat production of two neighbouring Arab countries are strongly correlated and are much steeper than the combined production of the largest three world producers. Although there i s no clear coincidence be-tween the two ser ies , Arab countries invariably face two threa t s : the f i r s t is the observed annual fluctuations in the production of major foreign producers. The second i s the poss ibi l i ty of much steeper fluctuations in world market supplies, result ing from sporadic but violent changes in the demands of large consumers such as the U.S.S.R. and China who occasionally enter the world market as com-peting buyers.

Diversification and pol i t ica l coercion

483. Apart from the r isk of coincidental production i n s t a b i l i t i e s , the strategy of diversifying supply sources may be needed to foresta l l po l i t ica l pressures

7 For instance, during the food c r i s i s of the early 1970fs, the U.S. government decided to stop commercial wheat shipments to Iran and the U.S.S.R. and also soy-bean shipments to Japan.

221

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222 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

Extra-regional Supply Sources 223

signalled "by traditional suppliers of major foodstuffs such as cereals. The degree of vulnerability is conceptually a direct function of the extent of supply concentration in the hands of countries having close political ties with Arab adversaries. Within this conceptual framework, it has been possible to rate the major deficit commodities according to the extent of risk involved Y. The fol-lowing ranking provides only general orders of magnitude:

High risk commodities Moderate risk commodities

Maize (unmilled) Meat, dried, salted smoked Oil seeds, nuts and kernels Barley (unmilled) Wheat and meslin (unmilled) Cereals, n.e.s. (unmilled) Animal oil and fat Tobacco manufactured

Fixed vegetable oil (soft)

484. Whether induced by production instability or by the threat of coercive pressures, the strategy of diversification may be implemented by two different approaches which are not necessarily mutually exclusive. The first is the creation of new supply sources through direct agricultural investment in develop-ing countries possessing vast under-utilized resources. This would be particularly true of African countries. Direct investment in agricultural development projects in such developing countries may be under 'tie-in1 arrangements for the purpose of creating captive supply sources to meet specific food demands of Arab countries.

485. The second approach involves a shift in the distribution of supply sources among established foreign producers of basic foodstuffs. The aim of such shifts would be twofold: to lessen the degree of concentration of imported foodstuffs among foreign supply sources on the one hand, and to give greater weight to supply sources that reflect lesser political risks on the other hand. As an indication of a broad diversification strategy, a scheme of alternative supply sources is given below:

Commodity Alternative supply sources

Wheat France, Argentina, Sweden, Netherlands, Germany F.R., Spain, Finland

Oil seeds Philippines, Sudan, France, Nigeria, Denmark, India

Animal fats and oils Denmark, Canada, France, Germany F.R., Peru, Belgium-Luxembourg, New Zealand, Norway, United Kingdom

Source: Table 2, Annex II, Part III.

486. An important impediment to a well-conceived diversification strategy is the relatively large share of concessional imports and food aid. For several Arab countries such as Egypt, Jordan, and Yemen, the food inflow from such sources constitutes an important share of total food imports. The bilateral relation-ships between donor and recipient countries often engender strong pressure mechanisms.

y An explanation of the methodology used for this purpose is given in Annex II, Part III.

224 Food Secur i ty Issues in the Arab Near East

487. The coercive na ture of concessional imports and food a id could be under-mined by evolving m u l t i l a t e r a l arrangements as a s u b s t i t u t e for on-going b i l a t e r a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s · The Arab s t a t e s as a group would seek concessional imports and food a id from prospec t ive donors through a process of c o l l e c t i v e ba rga in ing . Obviously, such a po l icy would go hand-in-hand with a d i v e r s i f i c a -t i o n s t r a t e g y involving commercial food imports .

TABLE 70: INSTABILITY INDEX OF CEREALS PRODUCTION IN SELECTED ARAB COUNTRIES 1952-72

i Asian Arab countries

Iraq Jordan Lebanon Syrian A.R. Yemen A.R. Yemen P.D.R.

Index

44 117 22 72 21 32

African Arab countries

Algeria Egypt Libya Somalia Sudan Tunisia Morocco

Index

51 10 93 111 32 38 49

S o u r c e : " I n s t a b i l i t y of Production and i t s Impact on Stock Requirements", FAO Monthly B u l l e t i n , Vol. 23, May 1974.

Summary and Conclusions of Part III

488. The structure of Arab trade in agricultural commodities i s c lo se ly l inked to the concept of regional food securi ty . Concentration i s the most important feature of that structure. F i r s t , there i s a r e l a t i v e l y high concentration of foodstuffs in regional agricultural trade, part icular ly in Arab imports of agricultural com-modities . Second, there i s s igni f icant concentration of imports in few extra-regional supply sources, and of agricultural exports on a small number of foreign markets. Intra-regional trade in agricultural commodities i s very th in and i s l e s s concentrated among Arab countries , in comparison with extra-regional trade. The concentration of food imports in few foreign supply sources and the re la t ive d i s -persal of import flows among many Arab countries represent the basic threat to Arab food securi ty .

489 . Certain structural weaknesses of Arab trade in agricultural commodities add to the food security threat , part icular ly with respect to the non-oil producing Arab countries . The capacity of agricultural exports to finance agricultural imports i s very l imited for most Arab countries . The incidence of a negative agr i -cultural trade balance i s spec ia l l y hard on the non-oil countries such as Yemen, Jordan and Lebanon. The long-term threat to o i l countries should not be overlooked and i s re lated t o the development of a l ternat ive energy sources and the rate of o i l resource deplet ion.

490 · Another weakness of exogeneous nature i s the adverse trend in the terms of agricultural trade for the Arab region. In the l a s t f i f t e e n years , world market prices for the region's major agricultural imports have r i sen more rapidly than those for the region's agricultural exports. Thus any future improvement in the agricultural trade balance should centre not only on increasing the physical volume of agricultural exports , but also on s igni f icant changes in the export mix to include more of the high-value commodities. S imilarly , the threat to food security i s not only re f lec ted in the r i s i n g volume of food imports, but also in the hi^i rate of food import price increases .

491. The most s igni f icant weakness of Arab trade in agricultural commodities i s i t s un i la tera l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c , Arab countries deal with foreign markets invariably in individual capac i t i e s . Col lect ive act ion at the regional or sub-regional l e v e l s i s v i r t u a l l y non-exis tent . The necessary i n s t i t u t i o n a l framework i s absent. In essence, most of the avai lable Pan-Arab i n s t i t u t i o n s are geared to research and studies rather than to c o l l e c t i v e transact ions . An example of t h i s l a t t e r would be the establishment of a 'regional grain board' t o handle a l l matters re lated t o Arab

225

226 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East grain imports including a l l aspects of the logis t ics of grain distr ibution among Arab countries. There is evidence that the cost of the foregone collective action is very h i^ i .

492. Arab trade in agricultural commodities sheds much light on the magnitude of the food security problem. In the short-run, the problem i s essential ly a'country' rather than a 'regional1 issue. Average country per capita food Arab imports i s not significantly out of l ine from other regional averages. The very high per capita country food imports are specifically related to the o i l - r ich Arab coun-t r i e s with no strong agricultural endowment base. The long-term threat to food security concerns only individual countries, part icularly the non-oil Arab s ta tes . But the region as a whole should not be alarmed by serious threats to regional food security, provided a suitable framework for collective action i s eventually evolved.

493· The most important boost to regional food security should emerge from basic changes in the structure of agricultural production. This would be manifested in the reallocation of regional agricultural resources in tune with the comparative advantages of Arab countries and would intensify regional self-reliance and compli-ment a r i t i e s based on specialization of agricultural production. These long-term propositions are beyond the scope of the present study. However, short and medium-term adjustments in the structure of Arab trade could make useful contributions to the enhancement of regional food security,

494· The f i r s t important adjustment concerns the intensif ication of Arab agr i -cultural trade through the diversion and redirection of trade flows. Collective action could minimize the volume of concurrent trade flows and significantly increase the share of intra-regional trade in t o t a l Arab agricultural t rade . I t i s estimated tha t , within the context of exist ing production structures, the mere redirection of trade could possibly increase the share of intra-regional trade from 13 to 30 per cent. This would be a significant achievement and would be largely dependent on the evolvement of an adequate market news system and related inst i tu t ional arrangement s ·

495· T n e second major adjustment re la tes to the diversification of external food supply sources· This strategy i s much needed as a safeguard against the instab-i l i t y of agricultural production and possible po l i t i ca l coercion. The implemen-ta t ion of the diversification strategy may be carried out ei ther by the creation of 'captive1 supply sources in some developing countries and/or shift ing the distr ibution of food imports in a manner that would lessen the i r concentration in risky and vulnerable sources. This would call for more significant ins t i tu t ional changes than those proposed under the intensif ication strategy.

496· Needless to say, po l i t i ca l s t ab i l i t y is a fundamental pre-requisi te for any food security action at the regional or sub-regional levels . The notion of 'Arab trade1 implies regional cohesion and a high degree of group dynamics which i s unfortunately lacking at present.

Annexes to Part III

Annex I Matrix9 Specifications

The agricultural trade matrices for Arab countries contain data on the fol-lowing items:

Imports ( i n M.T.) Imports ( i n thousand U.S.S) Unit value of imported commodities ( in U.S.S per M.T.) Exports ( i n M.T.) Exports ( i n thousand U.S.S) Unit value of exported commodities ( i n U.S.S per M.T.)

Intra-Arab trade in 52 s ing le commodities and 15 commodity groups are covered by the trade matrices. These 67 items are ordered in the computer print-out . The matrices give the de f in i t ion of individual commodities which are reproduced in the computer reference f i l e .

All Arab countries are covered with the exception of Oman, United Arab Emirates and Yemen P.D.R. t for which no information was avai lable in FAO Headquar-t e r s at the time of the compilation of the trade matrices. The trade matrices provide a lso data on trade for every Arab country in each commodity or group of commodities with 23 country groupings. The matrices l i s t a l l countries for which intra-Arab trade i s recorded and indicate the order in which they appear in the computer print-out . The de f in i t ion of the country groupings i s given in the computer reference f i l e .

The trade matrices show data on the above mentioned items for 1971 » 1972 and 1973 and for an average of these three years. It should be noted that o f f i c i a l data were missing for the fol lowing countries and years , and that only estimates have been recorded on the computer:

Country Years missing

Mauritania 1972 and 1973 Saudi Arabia 1971 Somalia 1973 Yemen 1971

The computer print-out cons i s t s of two s e t s of t a b l e s . The f i r s t table shows for a given Arab country i t s trade with other Arab countries individual ly and with the country groups indicated in the matrices. Nine consecutive pages have been

227

228 Food Security Issues in the Arab Near East

used to cover all commodities and groups of commodities for each given Arab country. In order to reduce the printed paper, only effective trading partners in the year concerned have been shown in the computer print-out.

The second table shows intra-Arab trade as well as trade of Arab countries with the outside world for given commodities or groups of commodities.

'Primary countries' correspond to countries for which data on imports or exports are shown in a given computer sheet. The 'secondary countries' are simply the trading partners of the primary countries. Since only eight primary countries can be covered in any single computer sheet, three consecutive pages are needed to list all Arab countries.

Annex II to Part III

Classification of Arab Agricultural Imports According to Their Vulnerability to Foreign Political Pressures

There is no doubt that in the case of political strife, the opposing countries generally try to disrupt the economies of their opponents. This is often done either through pursuading or pressurizing the other countries not to sell essen-tial commodities to the latter, or by blockading the main trade routes. To counteract these threats, it is important to diversify the sources of supply of essential commodities. The aim should be to move away from those countries that are likely to take sides with the adversaries and depend on such countries that would or could not be so pressurized.

To translate such a policy into action, it is important to establish for which commodities such threats are real, at the same time classifying the sources of supply into risky and less risky, and so on. This classification can, at best, be very crude and subjective, particularly when dealing with a group of countries with differing economic and political systems. The West may be more friendly with one country or the other, while the countries with a centrally planned economy could align their interests with other countries of the same grouping. Such attitudes change with time, making predictions hazardous. The present exercise has to be seen in this perspective and the list of vulnerable commodities and friendly countries may have to be constantly revised in view of the changing international political situation.

We start from the basic assumption that the supply of a given commodity con-trolled by a small number of countries is generally more vulnerable to political blackmail. We assume that if more than 50 per cent of the total exports is in the hands of three countries, then the supply of the commodity is subject to high risk. But again, it depends on whether these countries are friendly or not. For instance, if the three countries concerned are Arab countries, it is assumed that the supply of essential commodities will not be cut off. Similarly, if the sources of sup-plies are in the other developing countries, chances of cessation of supply are rather limited. There will be some developed countries which would not take sides and remain neutral and would continue the supply of essential commodities to the region. There may be other developed countries which would certainly take a dif-ferent side and the supply originating in these countries will stop.

On the basis of these assumptions, we assign scores to each commodity accor-ding to the country of origin and weight the respective scores by the proposition of supplies coming from each of the three countries. We also assign some scores if the share of Arab countries in total world imports is high:

230 Annexes

1· If three countries supply:

More than 50 Per cent of world exports Between 25 and 50 P^r cent of world exports Less than 25 per cent

Score 10 Score 5 Score 0

2· If the sources of supply are:

Arab countries Other developing countries Neutral developed countries Others

3. If Arab imports of a particular commodity are:

More than 10 per cent of the world demand Between 5 and 10 per cent of world demand Less than 1 per cent of world demand

4. If Arab countries' share of export of a particular commodity is:

More than 25 per cent of world exports Less than 10 per cent of world exports

Score 0 Score 1 Score 2 Score 3

Score 10 Score 5 Score 0

Score 10 Score 5

To illustrate the estimation of total scores two examples are given below, In the case of wheat (unmilled), the major suppliers are U.S.A., Canada and Aus-tralia. Their respective shares are 45·98, 21·64, and 13.01 per cent. Therefore, the scores on the first count (if the three suppliers are more than 50 Per cent) is 10· To this is added the sum of the weighted scores according to the countries of origin (i.e. 3(45.98)+ 2(21.64) + 2(13.01) = 207.24). Another 10 is added on count three because the Arab countries import more than 10 per cent of the world imports. The total is 227.24. Sugar represents another case. The three major suppliers are Brazil, Cuba and the Philippines. The proportions of total world exports coming from these three countries are 16.67, 13.26 and 9.22 per cent respectively. Thus the total sugar and honey supplied by the three largest exports falls between 26 and 50, "the score on the first count is only 5· The weighted score on the second count is only 39*15 (i.e. 1(16.67) + 1(13.26) + l(9.22). Since the share of the Arab imports is again more than 10 per cent of the world imports 10 was added. The total score for sugar and honey will there-fore be equal to 54.15·

Thus on the above assumptions wheat is much more vulnerable to political strife than sugar. Knowing the limitations of the methodology it is not sug-gested that wheat is more than three times as vulnerable as sugar· The scores of the other commodity groups (Standard International Trade Classification) are given in Table 1 to this Annex.

Annexes 231

TABLE 1: SCORES OF VULNERABILITY OF VARIOUS IMPORTS OF THE ARAB WORLD Y

Commodities

Live animals Meat, fresh, chilled Meat, dried, salted, smoked Meat, tinned, n.e.s. or prepared

Milk and cream Butter Cheese and curd Eggs Fish Fish etc., tinned, prepared Wheat (unmilled) Rice Barley (unmilled) Maize (unmilled) Cereals, n.e.s. (unmilled) Wheat etc., meal or flour Meal or flour other than wheat

i Cereal and preparation Fruits, fresh, nuts Dried fruits Fruits preserved and prepare Vegetables, fresh, simply preserved

Vegetables, preserved Sugar and honey

Scores

96 88 170

126 154 126 136 150 56 113 227 154 170 229 195 184

202 95 82 121

i 76

89 77 54

Commodities

Sugar préparât ion(non-chocolate)

Coffee Cocoa Chocolate and products Tea Spices Animal feeding stuff Margarine Food preparation n.e.s. Non-alcoholic beverages Alcoholic beverages Tobacco unmanufactured Tobacco manufactured Oil seeds, nuts and kernels Wool and animal hair Cotton Jute Vegetable fibre except cotton and jute

Crude fertilizer Animal oils and fats Fixed vegetable oil (soft) Fixed vegetable oil (non-soft) Processed animal and vege-table oil, etc.

Manufacture of fertilizer

Scores

118 50 54 125 99 51 129 156 120 133 148 129 160 221 151 118 106

99 49 200 159 58

157 114

1/ Commodities having scores more than the mean plus two standard deviations are termed as high risk products. Scores between one and two standard deviations are t reated as moderate risk commodities.

232 Annexes

TABLE 2: LIST OF HIGH RISK COMMODITIES WITH IMPORTANT ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF SUPPLY 1/

SITC No.

044

221

041

045

047

411

Commodities

Maize (unmilled)

Oil seeds , nuts and ke rne l s

Wheat and meslin (unmilled)

Cereals n . e . s . (unmilled)

Meal and Flour of c e r e a l s , except f lou r of wheat or of meslin

Animal f a t s and o i l

A l t e rna t ive sources of supply-

Thai land ( 4 . 8 3 ) , Netherlands ( 3 . 2 3 ) , Braz i l ( 2 . 2 8 ) , Yugoslavia (Ο.91) , Germany F.R. (Ο.62) , Belgium-Luxembourg ( 0 . 4 l ) t Indonesia ( 0 . 3 3 ) , Singapore ( 0 . 1 8 ) , Angola ( 0 . 1 2 ) .

Ph i l i pp ines (2,37)1 Sudan ( 2 . 2 6 ) , France ( l .62)J N ige r i a ( l . 6 l ) , Denmark (O.90) , India ( 0 . 8 2 ) , E th iop ia ( 0 . 7 7 ) , Sweden (Ο.66).

France (11 .47 ) , Argentine ( 3 . 1 6 ) , Sweden (1.22)J Netherlands (Ο.91) , Germany F.R. (Ο.84) , Belgium-Luxembourg ( 0 . 3 5 ) , Denmark ( 0 . 2 6 ) , Spain ( 0 . 2 6 ) , Finland ( 0 . 1 2 ) .

Netherlands ( 4 . 4 4 ) , France ( 3 . 9 6 ) , Germany F.R. ( 2 . 3 2 ) , Canada (1 .39) t Thai land ( 1 . 3 7 ) , Sweden ( 1 . 1 8 ) , Sudan ( 0 . 9 2 ) .

Canada ( 9 . 7 2 ) , Yugoslavia ( 4 . 6 9 ) , Belgium-Luxembourg (2.99)» France ( 2 . 7 3 ) , Netherlands ( 2 . 3 4 ) , United Kingdom ( 1 . 7 2 ) , Hong-Kong (1.19)J H a i t i (0 .99) i I t a l y ( 0 . 9 4 ) , Denmark (Ο.66).

Denmark ( 4 . 4 9 ) , Canada ( 4 . 2 2 ) , France ( 3 . 8 8 ) , Germany F.R. ( 3 . 6 9 ) , Peru ( 3 . 4 9 ) , Belgium-Luxembourg ( 2 . 2 8 ) , New Zealand ( 2 . 2 3 ) , Norway (2.OO), United Kingdom ( 1 . 3 5 ) .

Y The percentage share of the exporting countries, other than the three largest exporters, is given within brackets after the countries.

Annex III to Part III

TABLE 1:

Countries

Algeria Bahrain Egypt Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Libya Mauritania1/ Morocco Qatar Saudi Arabia SomaliaV Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen

Total Arab countries

Asian Arab countries

African Arab countries

TOTAL AGRICULTURE AND OIL TRADE FOR THE ARAB COUNTRIES, 1971-73 (THOUSAND U ,S.$)

Export

Total

1 312 102 69 381 910 398 574 793 45 715

3 137 920 369 703

3 208 478 106 550 669 740

-6 141 809

38 785 368 987 273 673 304 073 5 525

17 392 297

10 618 519^

6 773 778^

Agriculture

181 319 13 458

599 449 60 256 26 208 23 286 109 060

-99 508 566 516

-189 859 37 534 362 804 177 277 154 931 5 398

2 469 821

604 802^/

Ί 865 019^

Oil

1 026 233 517

56 767 494 130

180 2 885 857

1 151 3 166 345

-1 811 -

5 872 802 -3 705 57 672 89 000 -

13 656 170

9 312 309^

4 343 861-à

Import

Total !

1 608 123 255 558 910 809 768 640 269 800 829 891 916 996

1 182 284 74 Ο89 853 199 147 136

1 304 005 69 098 396 011 524 152 468 649 80 677

10 515 930

5 096 855

S 419 075^

Agriculture

328 401 48 569 359 620 212 570 90 320 182 305 254 645 259 784 18 575

288 009 30 517 354 309 25 472 98 608 176 538 131 004 40 654

2 855 853

1 390 427

1 465 426^/ I .

Oil

21 916 3 083 43 174 2 275 12 937 7 854 43 858 26 595 4 377 53 323

960 11 118 3 062 26 422 25 692 25 627 3 742

308 576

111 519

197 057^/

Source: UN Yearbook of International Trade S t a t i s t i c s , 1974 and 1975

V Average 1971-72 2/ Qatar i s excluded from the t o t a l s as data are not available 3/ Mauritania and Somalia are excluded from the to t a l s as data for

1973 are not available

234 Annexes

TABLE 2: STRUCTURE OF ARAB AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS AHO IMPORTS BY COMODITY GROUP, AVERAGE 1971-73 (VALUE-TERMS, EXPRESSED AS %)

Commodities

Food products Tota l

Cereals Sugar re f ined Pulses F r u i t s and vegetables Oi lseeds Vegetable o i l s Margarine Coffee, t e a , pepper Live animals Red meat

| Dairy products Non-food products Tota l

Oil seed cakes Wine Tobacco Tallow T e x t i l e f i b r e s

To ta l a g r i c u l t u r a l product

Exports

Asian Arab

52

9 1 5

22 1 1 0 4 4 1 4

48 2 0 4 0

42

s 100

African Arab

47

5 1 2

23 5 7 0 0 3 1 0

53 1 8 0 0

44

100

All Arab

48 6 1 2

23 4 6 0 1 3 1 1

52 1 7 1 0

43

100

Imports

Asian Arab

97

31 15

1 14

2 4 2 8 7 4 9

3 1 0 1 0 1

100

African Arab

90

35 15

1 4 1

12 0 9 5 1 7

10 1 0 3 2

"4

100

Tota l Arab

93

33 15

1 9 2 8 1 8 6 2 8

7 1 0 2 1 3

100

Source: FAO t r a d e mat r ices for t h e Arab c o u n t r i e s , 1971-73 O p , c i t .

Annexes 235

TABLE 3 : RATE OF GROWTH Y OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OP ARAB COUNTRIES BETWEEN 1970-72 AND 1973-75 (EXPRESSED IN % PER YEAR)

Countr ies

ASIAN ARAB F e r t i l e Crescent

I raq Jordan Lebanon Syr ian A.R.

Arabian Gulf Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE S«A« Peninsula Yemen A.R· Yemen D.P.R.

Import

52 23 22 31

26 22 38 8

27 41

50 20

Export

6 31 19 14

29 17 19 35 33 -

44 - 3

Countr ies

AFRICAN ARAB North Africa Alger ia Maur i tania Libya Morocco Tun i s i a N.E.Africa Egypt Somalia Sudan

Import

48 34 43 46 33

50 15 26

Export

10 2

14 14 21

16 18 9

Source: FA0 Trade Yearbook 1975» Rome. y Compound r a t e of growth

236 Annexes

TABLE 4 : PER CAPITA NET IMPORT CF FOOD AND LIVE ANIMALS IN SELECTED COUNTRIES, AVERAGE 1972-74 (IN U . S . $ )

Countries

ASIAN ARAB

Fertile Crescent

Iraq Jordan Lebanon Syrian A.R.

Gui f

Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qat ar Saudi Arabia

Per Capita

Import s

23 35 35 21

136 171

41

Countries

AFRICAN ARAB

North Africa

Algeria Libya Mauritania Morocco Tunisia

North East__ Afri ca

Egypt Somalia Sudan

Others

Belgium Germany F.R. India Italy Japan Norway Sweden United Kingdom

Per Capita

Imports

28 136

4 - 2 y 14

7 - 7 3

31 83 - 0.2 57 40 75 58 91

Source: ECWA/FAO. Calcula ted on t h e b a s i s of FAO (1976) Trade Yearbook 1975; UN (1976) Yearbook of I n t e r n a t i o n a l Trade S t a t i s t i c s 1975, V o l . 1 ; popula t ion f igures are based on es t imates given in UN Populat ion Div i s ion , Department of Economic Affa i rs (1975) Se lec ted World Demographic I nd i ca to r s by Countr ies 1950-2000 ESA/P/WP 55 (mimeo)

Y Minus (-) denotes surp lus

Annexes 237

TABLE 5 : IMPORT DEPENDENCE 1/ IN CEREALS FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES, AVERAGE 1973-75 (VALUE TERM)

Countries

ASIAN ARAB

Fertile Crescent

Iraq Jordan Lebanon Syrian A.R.

Gulf

Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia

S«A, Peninsula

Yemen A.R. Yemen P.D.R.

Per cent

23 58 81 11

100 100 90 100 55

11 60

Countries

AFRICAN ARAB

North Africa

Algeria Libya Mauritania Morocco Tunisia

North East Africa

Egypt Somalia Sudan

Others

Belgium Brazil Germany F.R. India Italy Japan Mexico Netherlands Norway United Kingdom

Per cent

60 76 76 22 23

26 15 2

64 7 20 4 30 53 16 76 42 32

Source: FAO Production Yearbook 1975t Vol. 29 y Import dependence i s defined as net imports divided by domestic product ion

p lus net imports

238 Annexes

TABLE 6 : UNIT VALUE OF IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OP SELECTED COMODITIES IN THE ARAB COUNTRIES, 1971-73 ( U . S . S PER M.T. )

Countries

ASIAN ARAB

Bahrain Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Qat ar Saudi Arabia Syrian A.R. Yemen A.R.

AFRICAN ARAB

Algeria Egypt Libya Mauritania ■ Morocco Somalia Sudan Tunisia

Average world unit price ]/

Import unit

wheat

215

94 120

71 152 124

126

77 115

100

113 90

94

value

sugar

299 191 194 212

153 215 215 I6O 238

194

226 212

169 228

194 161

155

Export unit value

cotton

279

724 897

1 343

900

989

Source: PAO t r a d e mat r ices 1971-73 Op«cit . 1/ Handbook of I n t e r n a t i o n a l Trade and Development S t a t i s t i c s , UNCTAD, 1976

Annexes 239

TABLE 7: UNIT VALUE OF AGRICULTURAL COUNTRIES 1971-73

5XP03TS AND IMPORTS FOR ALL ARAB

Commodities

Exports : Cotton C i t rus f r u i t s Fresh vegetables Wine Olive o i l

Imports: Wheat Sugar Vegetable o i l s Tea Rice Sheep Coffee Red meat Tobacco Oil seeds Eggs

Value (»000 $)

746 960 162 071 121 636 120 137 88 946

430 341 311 276 172 182 118 221 96 772 92 835 52 983 51 612 48 408 33 907 27 467

Quant i ty (M.T.)

700 484 1 134 247

755 051 879 173 108 749

5 062 249 1 650 218

474 521 109 140 457 812 180 916 71 507 58 760 40 868

171 060 44 391

Unit value (S/M.T.)

1 066 142 ! 161 136 817

85 188 362

1 083 211 513 740 878

1 184 198 618

Source: FAO t r a d e m a t r i c e s , O p . c i t .

TABLE 8: A SUMMARY VIEW OF ARAB DEPEITOEÎTCE Œ DEVELOPED MARKET ECONOMIES, AVERAGE 1971-73 (EXPRESSED AS %)

I " ' '

Commodity-Groups

Total agricultural products Food products Cereals Fruits and vegetables Meat products Vegetable o i l s Textile fibres Agricultural requisi tes

L . i ,

Exports Developed market economies

46.00 55.19 25.13 65.46 46.15 73.37 34.75 52.75

Centrally-planned economies

32.53 15.31 34.42 17.27 1.02 6.59

49.80 24.24

Imports Developed market economies

53.73 53.45 79.09 32.42 48.46 60.03 53.71 83.24

Centrally-planned economies

19.94 11.11 6.13 4.11

19.43 11.99 3.42 8.11

Source: FAO Trade matrices, Op.cit

240 Annexes

TABLE 9: ARAB AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS TO AND IMPORTS FROM OUTSIDE THE REGION, 1971-73 AVERAGE (THOUSAND U.S.&)

Commodities

Agr i cu l tu ra l products : Food products :

Cereals Sugar re f ined Pulses F r u i t s and vegetables Oil seeds Vegetable o i l s Margarine Coffee, t e a , pepper Live animals Red meat Dairy products and eggs

Non-food products : Cakes and o i l seeds Wine Tobacco Tallow T e x t i l e f i b r e s

Agr i cu l tu ra l r e q u i s i t e s : Fish:

Imports

j_830ν3?1 1 699 498

664 449 294 571

18 723 90 628 27 027

151 079 22 365

172 103 68 699 42 412

147 422

130 893 9 769 2 292

46 118 24 502 48 212

213 421

8 244

Exports

J_542 621

627.. 662 72 758

8 814 37 829

346 446 62 141 81 467

265 9 133

514 6 165 2 137

914 952

24 149 120 123

9 830 11

760 839 207 990

23 753

Exports as % of imports

84 37 11 3

202 382 229 54

1 5 1

14 1

699 247 524

21 0

1 578

97 288

Source: FAO trade matrices, Op,cit«

Annexes

TABLE 10: ESTIMATED PER CAPITA AVAILABILITY OP ARABLE LAND 1974 (IN HA.)

241

ASIAN ARAB

F e r t i l e C r e s c e n t

I r a q J o r d a n Lebanon S y r i a n A.R.

Gul f

B a h r a i n Kuwait Oman Q a t a r S a u d i A r a b i a UAE

S.A. P e n i n s u l a

Yemen A.R. Yemen P .D .R .

0 . 4 8 0 . 4 5 0 . 0 9 0 . 8 1

0 . 0 0 4 0 . 0 0 1 0 . 0 2 0 . 0 1 2 0 . 0 8 0 . 0 1 2

0 . 1 9 0 . 2 0

AFRICAN ARAB

No r t h A f r i c a

A l g e r i a L ibya Maur i tan ia Morocco T u n i s i a

N o r t h E a s t A f r i c a

Egypt S o m a l i a Sudan

O t h e r s

Be lg ium Denmark Germany F . R . I n d i a I t a l y J a p a n N e t h e r l a n d s U n i t e d Kingdom

0 . 3 9 1.10 0 . 8 0 0 . 4 2 0 . 3 4

0 . 0 7 4 0 . 4 0 0.57 I

0 . 0 8 0 . 5 2 0 . 1 2 0 . 2 7 | 0.17 I Ο.Ο45 0 . 0 5 9 | 0 . 1 2 6

Source: Estimates based on FAO Production Yearbook 1975

TABLE 11: CHANGES IN TERMS OP TRADE OP SELECTED ARAB COUNTRIES (1970 = 100)

C o u n t r y

A l g e r i a Egypt L i b y a M a u r i t a n i a Morocco S o m a l i a Sudan T u n i s i a

I r a q J o r d a n Kuwait Lebanon S a u d i A r a b i a S y r i a n A.R.

1971

112 97

124 97 93 99 99

100

122 93

122 92

120 112

1972

110 98

121 89 98

101 99

103

122 102 121 94

119 111

1973

126 100 103 78 95

109 117 111

147 91

146 129 141 121

1974

315 120 324

71 125 95

154 160

441 116 449 107 422 152

1975

301 105 313

67 141 94

125 161

421 131 429 | 117 413 136 |

Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development ( 1976) Handbook of International Trade and Development Statistics, Table 7.2, pp.441-459.