FOOD SECURITYIN

PAKISTAN

What is Food Security?

sufficient,

Food security existswhen all people,

at all times,

have physical and economic access to

safe and nutritious foodto meet their dietary needs

and food preferencesfor an active and healthy life.

The Food Security Pillars

Availa

bility

Acce

ss

Utiliza

tion

Stability

Food Security

Availability IndicatorsFOOD

AVAILABILITYNET PRODUCTION

AGRICULTURE-BASEDFOOD

ANIMAL-BASEDFOOD

4 FOOD ITEMS

4 FOOD ITEMS

Kcal per capitaper day

FOOD CONSUMPTION

All FOOD ITEMS

All FOOD ITEMSOwn production

Import + Aid

Stocks

19481952

19561960

19641968

19721976

19791981

19831985

19871989

19911993

19951997

19992001

20032005

20072009

20110

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Wheat in the past 64 years

AREA (m ha) PRODUCTION (000 TONNES) YIELD (Kg / ha)

Harvest Years 1948-2012

Prod

uctio

n an

d Ar

ea

Yiel

d

1948

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

0 50 100 150 200

Population in million of Pakistan

1948

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

102

117

87

100

88 89

9390

87

76

116

123

105

110

120

108

124

131135

129

137

117

122

141

119122

135

130 129

136 136

125

137

154

128

140

131

151

133

125

129

145

140

137

147

129

146

139141

138

Wheat Production per capita

Y e a r

KG

Militancy & crimes

Access Indicators

ACCESS TO FOOD

INCOME PER CAPITA

ADULT LITERACY RATE

LANDLESS LABOUR

ROADS PER AREA

MARGINAL CULTIVATORS

UNDER 2.5 ACRE

International vs local prices of wheat

Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 July-11 Jan-120.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

500.0

International Wheat prices

USA: Gulf - Wheat (No. 2 Hard Red Winter) DELHI Pakistan

Jan-2006

Mar-2006

May-2006

July-2006

Sep-2006

Nov-2006

Jan-2007

Mar-2007

May-2007

July-2007

Sep-2007

Nov-2007

Jan-2008

Mar-2008

May-2008

July-2008

Sep-2008

Nov-2008

Jan-2009

Mar-2009

May-2009

July-2009

Sep-2009

Nov-2009

Jan-2010

Mar-2010

May-2010

July-2010

Sep-2010

Nov-2010

Jan-2011

Mar-2011

May-2011

Jul-2011

Sep-2011

Nov-2011

Jan-201210

15

20

25

30

35

40

Pakistan: Retail Prices (nominal) in major markets: Wheat Flour A. Qlt. 06/2006-02/2012

ISLAMABAD

RAWALPINDI

GUJRANWALA

SIALKOT

LAHORE

FAISALABAD

SARGODHA

MULTAN

BAHAWALPUR

KARACHI

Hyderabad

SUKKUR

LARKANA

PESHAWAR

BANNU

QUETTA

KHUZDAR

Terms of trade and key commodity prices

Jan 07

March 07

May 07

July

07

Sep 07

Nov 07

Jan 08

Mar 08

May 08

July

08

Sep 08

Nov 08

Jan 09

Mar 09

May 09

July

09

Sep 09

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10

July-

10

Sep-10

Nov-10

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

July-

11

Sep-11

nov-11

Jan-12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Pakistan: Terms of Trade and Petroleum prices

Wheat flour per Kg Terms of Trade PETROL DIESEL

Ja

n 0

4

Ma

r 0

4

Ma

y 0

4

Ju

ly 0

4

Se

p 0

4

No

v 0

4

Ja

n 0

5

Ma

r 0

5

Ma

y 0

5

Ju

ly 0

5

Se

p 0

5

No

v 0

5

Ja

n 0

6

Ma

rch

06

Ma

y 0

6

Ju

ly 0

6

Se

p 0

6

No

v 0

6

Ja

n 0

7

Ma

rch

07

Ma

y 0

7

Ju

ly 0

7

Se

p 0

7

No

v 0

7

Ja

n 0

8

Ma

r 0

8

Ma

y 0

8

Ju

ly 0

8

Se

p 0

8

No

v 0

8

Ja

n 0

9

Ma

r 0

9

Ma

y 0

9

Ju

ly 0

9

Se

p 0

9

No

v-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ma

r-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Ju

ly-1

0

Se

p-1

0

No

v-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ma

r-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Ju

ly-1

1

Se

p-1

1

no

v-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Term of Trade

Multan Karachi Peshawar Pakistan

Terms of trade: regional trends

International and National Wheat Prices

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

May

-02

Jul-0

2Se

p-02

Nov-0

2Ja

n-03

Mar

-03

May

-03

Jul-0

3Se

p-03

Nov-0

3Ja

n-04

Mar

-04

May

-04

Jul-0

4Se

p-04

Nov-0

4Ja

n-05

Mar

-05

May

-05

Jul-0

5Se

p-05

Nov-0

5Ja

n-06

Mar

-06

May

-06

Jul-0

6Se

p-06

Nov-0

6Ja

n-07

Mar

-07

May

-07

Jul-0

7Se

p-07

Nov-0

7Ja

n-08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-0

8Se

p-08

Nov-0

8Ja

n-09

Mar

-09

May

-09

July-

09Se

p-09

Nov-0

9

Pakistan Delhi

World price(F.O.B,Gulf) Support price

Soaring food prices have adversely affected access to food

Jan 11

Feb 11

Mar 11Apr 1

1

May 11

Jun 11Jul 1

1

Aug 11

Sep 11

Oct 11

Nov 11

Dec 11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12Jul-1

2

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00

450.00

500.00

International VS national prices of wheat

AUSTRAILIA USA AfghanistanPakistan India

2.3

3.6

0.6 0.3

10.8

3.3

3.7

9.1

1.3

0.6

0.6

64

2nd Round1st round

2.7

4.0

0.4

0.6

7.1

3.2

5.1

4.4

1.9

0.5

0.4

69.6

4.05.8

0.6 0.9

10.4

4.7

7.5

6.5 2.8

0.7 0.6

55.6

0

Household expenditure on food & non-food items (%age)

Energey for cooking

Electricity

Housing (rent, repairs)

Water

Health

Education

Transportation (private purose)

Clothing and shoes

Ceremonies, entertqainment

Reimbursment debts

Other non-food expenses

Food Expenditure

Poor populations need to spend a large share of their income on food

• Purchasing power went down (2007-09)– Wheat prices in real terms increased by 54.6

percent – Wage rate in real terms increased by only 3.1

percent (shock modeling)

Nominal term (2007-2011)– Wheat price increased by 114 percent– Wage rate increased by only 41 percent

Type of consumption

Caloric Intake (Kcal/Day/Person)Quantity Consumed per

Year (Kg)

Baseline (2006) After (2009) Change (%)

Baseline (2006) After (2009)

Wheat National 811 735 -9.3 124 112

  Urban 709 631 -11.0 108 96

  Rural 880 806 -8.4 135 123

Rice National 124 100 -19.4 - -

  Urban 114 86 -24.6 - -

  Rural 131 109 -16.8 - -

Total food National 2372 2268 -4.4 - -

  Urban 2336 2226 -4.7 - -

  Rural 2397 2296 -4.2 - -

Note: The percentage change in caloric intake is applied to the quantity consumed

Wage labourers and petty traders are most food insecure

Wag

e lab

ourers

Petty t

rader

Small

farm

ers

Livest

ock

Medium fa

rmer

Skille

d worke

rs

Employe

e/small

business

%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

28%21% 16%

7%

45%48%

39%

41%

15% 15%7%

Extremely food insecure Borderline food insecure

Market vulnerability

Market price plays a vital role in the food security of the population

35-40% urban ………………………100% depend on market for food67% of rural…………………………100% depend on market for food

33% of rural engaged in agriculture but not all produce surplus cereals, only 10% are somehow produce more than requirement.

Hence, the price instability affect 90% of the households in the country

Absorption/utilization Indicators

FOOD ABSORPTION

INFANT MORTALITYRATE

IMMUNIZATIONCOVERAGE

FEMALE LITERACY RATE

HEALTH SERVICES& FACILITIES

SAFE DRINKINGWATER

25

Food Diversity- type of food consumed in one week time

Food Consumption Groups

Cereal_days_eaten

Pulses_days_eaten

Vegetable_days_eaten

Fruits_days_eaten

Protein_days_eaten

Sugar_sweet_days_eaten

Oil_ghee_days_eaten

Poor 6.2 0.9 4.0 0.3 0.1 4.4 4.5Borderline 7.0 3.0 4.0 0.5 0.5 6.5 6.6Reasonable 7.0 4.2 4.7 1.5 3.2 6.5 6.6Total 6.9 3.3 4.2 0.8 1.4 6.4 6.5

Food Consumption

2 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 84

Poor Borderline Acceptable

.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

Cereal days eaten Pulses days eaten Vegetable days eaten Fruits days eaten Meat days eaten Milk days eaten Sugar days eaten Oil days eaten

Oil

Sugar

Milk MeatFruits

vegetable

pulses

Cereals (Wheat, Rice, Maize)

Food Diversity

Food insecure populationFSA 2009 Table 5.2

Food Insecure Population in Pakistan

Province % Food insecur

e

KPK 56.2

Punjab 38.5

Sindh 44.3

Balochistan 61.2

FATA 67.7

Pak Administered Kashmir 46.9

Gilgit Baltistan 52.4

Islamabad 23.6

% Food insecure population

56.2

38.544.3

61.267.7

46.952.4

23.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

KPK Punjab Sindh Balochistan FATA PakAdministered

Kashmir

GilgitBaltistan

Islamabad

Pakistan = 48.6 percent

2010------- 51.6 Percent

32 31 29

13 13

21

26

34

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Extremely foodinsecure

Food Insecure Borderline Secure

Food insecurity with geographical focus

Y-09 Y-03

Chart-3.5 Coping Strategies FSA 2009

40

27

16

1 2 3 3 2

7

40

30

17

2 2 2 2 15

40

29

16

2 2 2 2 15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Rely

on le

sspr

efer

red

and

less

expe

nsive

Limit p

ortio

nsiz

e at

mea

ls

Rest

rict

cons

umpt

ionby

adu

lts in

orde

r for

Cons

ume

seed

sto

cks

held

for t

hene

xt s

easo

nSe

ll dom

estic

asse

ts(ra

dio,

furn

iture

,Se

ll dom

estic

asse

ts (f

arm

imple

men

ts,

sewi

ngM

ove

child

ren

from

priva

te to

publi

c sc

hool

Rem

ove

child

ren

from

scho

ol

Seek

alter

nativ

ejob

s

Urban Rural Total

How do people cope with food insecurity ?

Militancy & crimes

Year 2003

2003-2006 slow increase

2007Price increase of

food itemsContinue till now

2007Decline in terms of trade

Continue till now

2008Decline in incomePower shut downContinue till now2009

Conflict/warContinue till now