public programmes, and often incon- sistent policies concerning food, agri- culture, and natural resources.

The new food and agricultural policy programme at Resources for the Future is a modest attempt to address the inadequacies of policy analysis and, at the same time, to extend the compre- hensiveness of programmes in renew- able resources, energy, and environ- mental quality at RFF. We see three principal roles for the programme. First, we will analyse major emerging national public policy topics, particu- larly those with important natural resource implications. By ‘emerging topics’ we mean those likely to be of major significance in a five to ten year period. Although we will emphasize US domestic policies, the casting of the issues and analysis, in most instances, must necessarily be international and intersectoral.

Second, through small grants and fellowships for visiting scholars at RFF, we hope to stimulate in other institu- tions policy analysis and economic research needed as ‘building blocks’ for subsequent policy analysis.

And third, we plan to communicate the results of our analyses to policy makers at the national level in an effec- tive , timely manner, through conferences, seminars, and workshops. In so doing, we hope to stimulate both dialogue and improved understanding of food and agricultural policy issues among government officials, aca- demics, and the business community.

The RFF programme can help deve- lop a more comprehensive, farsighted food and agricultural policy framework and enlarge and improve policy analy- sis. But, we realize fully that our contribution can be marginal at best; the task is much larger than the capacity of the RFF programme. Indeed, it is one to challenge economists throughout the world, and we hope and expect to be joined by many both in this country and abroad.

Kenneth R. Farrell Director, Food and Agricultural

Policy Program Resources for the Future

Washington DC, USA

FOOD POLICY August 1982

Book reviews Security will not overcome poverty FOOD SECURITY FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

edited by Albert0 Vald&

Westview Press, Boulder, CO, 1981,

357 PP

Despite the progress that has been made in increasing global production of cereals and foodstuffs, per capita food consumption in many developing countries has shown little improve- ment, and malnutrition and hunger continue to afflict a substantial pro- portion of their inhabitants. There can be little doubt that food issues will con- tinue to be a matter for international concern during the 1980s indeed the Brandt Commission Report saw ‘no more important task before the world community than the elimination of hunger and malnutrition in all coun- tries’. The publication of this collection of essays on various aspects of the food security position in developing coun- tries, is therefore both apposite and timely.

The expression ‘food security’ can be given a wide variety of meanings and interpretations, reflecting different emphases and foci on the complex set of relationships which affect the supply and distribution of food between and within countries. In the Introduction, written by Albert0 ValdQ and Ammar Siamwalla, (an extended version of which was published in Food Policy)’ food security is conceived of as a problem of short run variability in consumption, having its origins in pro- duction and/or price fluctuations. The more fundamental issue of malnutri- tion resulting from poverty and mal- distribution is not analysed, being seen as a ‘long term problem whose dimen- sions and solutions lie beyond the question of food security’. This particu- lar definition of food security is used by most of the contributors, and provides the main theme of the volume. The papers are divided into two groups. The Chapters in Part 1 describe the

nature and magnitude of food insecur- ity in developing countries, while Part 2 presents various international and national policy proposals for reducing food insecurity.

ValdCs and Konandreas use national aggregate data to compute the average cross-country instability in per capita food consumption over the period 1961-76. Measuring instability as fluctuations around the long run trend, they find considerable inter-country differences, but show that in many LDCs a consumption shortfall in excess of 5% has occurred, on average, every fifth year. The paper by Barker, Gabler and Winkelmann discusses the rela- tionship between new crop technology, and production variability. Using a range of sample data on production performance subsequent to the intro- duction of new forms of technology, they find no evidence to support the view that the adoption of modem tech- nology leads to greater yield stability. Instability in the rice economies of the ASEAN region is examined by Siamwalla, and Goueli describes the Egyptian economy’s growing depen- dence on food imports.

Security and stability The two remaining papers in Part 1, by Lele and Chandler on East Africa and Garcia on Columbia, are of particular interest since they attempt to extend the analysis beyond broad aggregates, and stress that national food security is not necessarily synonymous with stability in total food supplies. Lele and Chandler are concerned specifically with the difficulties of developing effective policy to alleviate rural food insecurity. It is shown that official channels for food marketing and distribution handle only a small proportion of food transactions, and the authors argue that a greater recog- nition and understanding of the role played by the private trading system is a necessary precondition to policy aimed at improving the food security of the

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Book reviews

rural poor. Garcia’s paper on Columbia uses evidence on nutritional standards and income distribution patterns, to show that while fluctuations in total supply have been small, with imports being used to offset production short- falls, the effect has fallen dispropor- tionately on the nutritionally vulner- able sections of the population.

The interrelationship between the production*onsumption, and balance of payments, dimensions of food in- security are considered in the paper by Josling who emphasizes that stabiliz- ation of consumption necessitates some kind of adjustment elsewhere, either in the national or international economy. This point is illustrated by considering the effect of the developed countries’ domestic policies on the degree of instability in the international wheat market. Reutlinger and Bigman use a hypothetical ‘India-type’ economy to simulate the benefits and costs of alternative stabilization stra- tegies. Their main conclusion is that adjustments through the foreign exchange accounts are more efficient than domestic stock adjustments.

International initiatives

The remaining papers discuss various international initiatives which would assist LDCs in shifting the burden of adjustment from consumption to the foreign exchange sector. Morrow examines the effect of an intemational- ly managed wheat reserve scheme on the variability in the world wheat price. Taking a range of possible price trigger bands and reserve stock levels he con- cludes that even if the type of agree- ment envisaged in the unsuccessful Wheat Trade Convention negotiations had been agreed, it would have had little impact on world price variability. Huddleston examines the relationships between food aid inflows and the supply gap between production and trend consumption during the 1970-76 period, and finds that in most LDCs food aid was insufficient to meet vari- able requirements, the primary con- siderations in food aid flows being supply availability in donor countries and their political objectives, rather than recipient countries’ food needs. This argument is extended by Johnson

who shows that production shortfalls in LDCs could be met by a modification in the distribution of the existing volume of food aid.

The final two papers consider the suggestion that LDCs could be assisted by increasing their access to financial resources, to purchase additional food imports in years of above average requirements. Huddleston and Konandreas develop a model inter- national insurance scheme which would provide funds to LDCs in years of excess import expenditure, and would also operate a reserve stock scheme aimed at offsetting inter- national price increases. Goreaux considers the modification of the IMF’s existing Compensatory Financing Facility to include excess food import costs. Using food import expenditure (rather than volume requirements) and allowing excess import costs to be off- set by above average export earnings, he shows that the cost to the IMF of operating such a scheme would be insignificant. (The scheme introduced

by the Fund in May 1981 closely resembles Goreux’s proposals.)

The papers in this volume highlight the problems that many developing countries face from instability in the supply of foodstuffs, and the inter- national policy initiatives for stabilizing availability that are examined are a necessary condition for achieving greater food security in the developing countries. But, as Mellor points out in the Foreword, food insecurity is fundamentally an issue of poverty and inequality within the Third World economies, and the guarantee of a more stable aggregate supply will not in itself be sufficient to ensure the allevia- tion of these problems.

Co/in Kirkpa trick Department of Economics

University of Manchester Manchester, UK

I‘Food insecurity in developing countries’, Food Policy, Vol5, No 4, November 1980, pp 25a272.

Focus on diet-related diseases

PREVENTATIVE NUTRITION AND SOCIETY

edited by Michael Turner

Academic Press, London, 1981, 351 pp, f 16.40

The opening chapter by James et al, on diet-related diseases in the UK cau- tiously reviews the evidence. They begin, rightly, by emphasizing the strength of the epidemiological evi- dence concerning the major changes in the pattern of cardiovascular disease (including ischaemic heart disease) in genetically heterogeneous populations in relation to diet. However, they con- clude by saying that ‘scientists well- versed in the critical appraisal of experimental data will require “proof’ of connections between diet and dis- ease. . .‘, which overlooks the fact that a scientific hypothesis can never be proved, and also contradicts their earlier statement. The epidemiological evidence is extraordinarily clear:

wherever the ratio of polyunsaturated to saturated fats in the diet is signifi- cantly higher than in the UK, the incidence of coronary heart disease is lower. In Japan, where the ratio of polyunsaturated to saturated fats in the diet is much higher, factors like smoking and hypertension, which are statistically significant in Western countries, are almost irrelevent.

Laing makes a brave attempt to arrive at some estimate of the cost of diet-related diseases. The ones incur- ring the greater costs to the community include coronary heart disease, dia- betes, cancer of the large intestine and dental caries. The figures quoted do not allow for production lost through sickness and do not ascribe a monetary value to preventable death. Laing con- cludes that there are potential benefits of a large order of magnitude from the prevention of diet-related diseases and a reasonable expectation, on the balance of evidence, that intervention will be effective to some degree. ‘The return from even marginally effective

264 FOOD POLICY August 1982