Food Security Concerns and Food Security Concerns and Agricultural Policy:Agricultural Policy:

Their Environmental Their Environmental Implications for Indian Implications for Indian

PunjabPunjab

Food Security Concerns and Food Security Concerns and Agricultural Policy:Agricultural Policy:

Their Environmental Their Environmental Implications for Indian Implications for Indian

PunjabPunjab

R.S. SidhuR.S. Sidhu

Issues

1. What are the changes in crop pattern?

2. What is the relationship between production and procurement?

3. What are the implications of high growth in foodgrain production w.r.t. ground water resources and soil?

Gross value of crop output at 2001-02 prices (Rs. crore)

  Rice Wheat CottonOilseed

s PulsesSugarc

aneOther

cerealsAggreg

ate

1967-68 2394 21036 10203 4571 7637 432 5872 52145

% 4.59 40.34 19.57 8.77 14.65 0.83 11.26 100

1980-81

18757 48365 17490 2677 6675 353 4111 98428

% 19.06 49.14 17.77 2.72 6.78 0.36 4.18 100

1990-91

37735 76602 29062 1150 7872 540 2272 155232

% 24.31 49.35 18.72 0.74 5.07 0.35 1.46 100

2001-02

51133 98217 19569 930 2006 838 2696 175389

% 29.15 56.00 11.16 0.53 1.14 0.48 1.54 100

CGR (%) 8.56 4.10 1.35 -4.58 -1.35 1.38 -3.17 3.53

Source: Singh and Sidhu, 2004

Crop 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2001-02

Rice 8.27 20.49 30.50 35.74

Wheat 48.77 48.72 49.48 49.09

Maize 11.75 6.62 2.84 2.37

Gram 7.59 4.47 0.91 0.86

Groundnut 3.69 1.44 0.17 0.05

Rapeseed & Mustard 2.19 2.18 1.12 0.70

Sugarcane 2.72 1.23 1.53 2.05

American Cotton 4.50 8.70 10.47 7.28

Cropping Pattern in Punjab (% of GCA)

Inputs use pattern in PunjabYear Area under

HYVFert.Use Irriga-

ted area (%)

Tube-wells(In

’000)

Tractors Cropp-ing

Intensity

(%)

Rice(000ha)

Wheat(000ha)

Total(000

Nutrient tons)

Per Ha NSA(nutrient kgs)

Total(In Thousands)

No./000 ha

70-71 130 1589 213 50 71 192 5.3 1.3 140

80-81 1095 2757 762 180 81 600 119 28.4 161

90-91 1906 3271 1220 290 93 800 289 68.5 178

02-03 2530 3375 1441 340 95 1150 451 106.8 185

Average use of inputs for wheat and rice in Punjab (Per ha)

Year/Crop Fertilizer use (kg of nutrients)

Chemical Use (Rs. at 1980-81 prices)

Wheat

1981-84 156.70 57.31

1998-2000 224.00 202.27

Paddy

1981-84 180.50 113.69

1998-2000 182.80 267.75

Share of Punjab state in total procurement in India (in thousand tons)

Year Rice     Wheat    

  Punjab India % share Punjab India % share

1981-82 to 1985-86 18145 41851 43.4 27650 46193 59.9

1986-87 to 1990-91 20426 48324 42.3 27051 42222 64.1

1991-92 to 1995-96 23928 61319 39.0 31208 51568 60.5

1996-97 to 2000-01 28373 80067 35.4 39922 73079 54.6

Source: Economic Survey, Government of India, various issues.

Changes in consumption expenditure (Rs/capita for 30 days at 1980-81 prices)

  Punjab   All India  

Items 1987-88 1999-00 1987-88 1999-2000

Rural    

Cereals 18.63 20.30 28.68 29.61

Pulses 5.02 6.18 4.35 5.08

Milk and Milk products 31.14 35.15 9.46 11.70

Meat, fish, egg 1.06 1.55 3.55 4.44

Vegetables 7.45 9.85 5.71 8.24

Fruits, fresh 2.66 2.60 1.78 1.89

All food 97.54 106.70 69.97 79.36

Urban    

Cereals 18.13 20.76 25.66 29.01

Pulses 5.43 6.88 5.86 6.66

Milk and Milk products 29.39 35.70 16.54 20.38

Meat, fish, egg 1.92 2.57 6.14 7.36

Vegetables 10.07 11.35 9.10 12.06

Fruits, fresh 4.64 4.75 4.35 4.58

All food 103.37 116.39 96.98 112.90

Source: NSS data.

Brief Contours of Agricultural Policy in India

India• Land reforms 1950s• Public Investments on Irrigation Development• Setting up of Agricultural Prices Commission and

Food Corporation of India for procurement of foodgrains, 1965

• Green Revolution, 1966-70• Land ceiling and distribution of surplus land, 1972• Integrated Rural Development Program, 1976-• National Bank for Agriculture and Rural

Development, 1982• Setting up of RRBs• Economic Reforms, 1991• Implementation of WTO agreement, 1995• Targeting of PDS, 1997• Doubling flow of Institutional Agricultural Credit,

2005• Encouraging Agro-processing, 2005• Expanding Micro Irrigation, 2005• Agricultural Market Reforms, 2005

Year Paddy Wheat Barley Maize GramMustard

Cotton (Am)

1980-81 113 130 105 105 165 250 304

1990-91 225 225 200 180 450 600 620

2000-01 540 610 500 445 1100 1200 1625

2004-05 590 640 540 525 1425 1700 1760

CGR (%)

1980-81 to 90-91 5.98 4.93 5.39 4.56 8.51 7.35 5.84

1990-91 to 2000-01 9.28 10.43 8.70 8.88 8.61 6.22 10.32

1999-00 to 2004-05

2.45 1.70 3.74 4.54 7.21 9.14 2.12

Coefficient of Variation (de-trended series) of farm harvest prices, 1970-71 to 2001-02

Wheat Rapeseed Gram Barley PaddyCotton

AmCotton Desi G'nut Maize

16.95 16.4 18.3 21.2 9.0 25.8 22.5 24.6 21.5

Growth and Variability in Output Prices

Input and Output Prices Index for Wheat and Paddy in Punjab

YearOutput Fertilizer Chemicals

Wheat

1981-82 100 100 100

1991-92 176 126.68 205.10

1998-99 366.9 192.16 317.9

Paddy

1981-82 100 100 100

1991-92 203.7 112.6 158.3

1998-99 378.5 180.6 339.6

Agricultural subsidies in Punjab(Rs 10 millions)

YearFertilizers Electricity Canal Irrigation

1985-86 266 94 11

1995-96 567 693 30

1999-2000 1061 1939 65

2003-04 1088 807* 37

* as per calculations of Punjab State Electricity Regulatory Commission.Source: Economic Survey of India and Punjab, various issues.

Realisation of cost and level of subsidy on power supply to

agriculture 1991-92

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

ACR(%)

10.44 9.39 13.81 22.27 23.83 16.34 0 0 0

Subsidy Rs. million

4664.2 6448.4 7706.5 7201.6 7226.2 9250.4 14701.9 16903.9 20161.8

Share of different crops/enterprises and other activities in the research budget

of the UniversityYear Researc

h Budget (Rs. Million)

Percentage of Research budget to

Wheat & rice

Cotton and S’cane

Other field crops

Horticultre

Livestock and fishery

Post harvesting

Marketing

Others

1980 41.5 16 15 12 12 16 5 1.2 23

1990 144.1 18 12 18 13 11 3 0.5 24

2000 547.1 19 10 12 12 12 4 0.7 30

2001 608.5 20 9 11 11 11 5 0.7 31

Growth and Variability in productivity of different crops in

Punjab Crop CGR 1965/66 to 2001-02 CV of de-trended yield

1970-71 to 2001-02

Paddy 2.72 9.08

Cotton 0.27 25.74

S’cane 1.66 15.65

Maize 1.39 13.33

Wheat 2.76 4.88

Gram 0.25 19.57

Rapeseed 2.57 13.15

Increase in proportionate area of the central zone under water table depth of

more than 10 meter

Year Central zone South west zone

5-10 mt >10 mt 5-10 mt >10 mt

1996 69 25 47 8

1998 49 42 43 12

2000 41 53 50 9

2004 10 90 52 10

In per cent

Per cent area under different water table depths in central zone

0

20

40

60

80

100

1973 1990 2000 2002 2004

<5 mt

5- 10 mt

>10 mt

Ground Water Status in Punjab

Rate of Exploitation (%)

Blocks (in per cent of total)

Sub-Mountainous

Central (Paddy zone)

South West(Cotton zone)

Punjab

Below 100 78 17 76 47

100-200 22 63 12 41

200-300 0 15 6 9

300-400 0 3 3 2

Above 400 0 2 3 1

Total Blocks 36 69 33 138

Rise/ fall in Water table

Sangrur 43

Patiala 33 Jalandhar

22

Amritsar 18

Kapurthala 17 Faridkot

13 Ludhiana 13 Ropar 08 Hoshiarpur-1 02 Gurdaspur

02 Hoshiarpur-2 05 Mansa 09

Ferozpur 17

Bathinda 21

Average water table depth (m) in different zones

Zones Measured Predicted

1993 2003 2013 2023

Sub-montane

17.6 18.5 19.4 20.3

Central 11.1 16.2 21.3 26.5

South-west

6.8 8.9 10.9 13.3

N, P, K Status of Punjab Soils, 1981 through 2002

(In per cent samples deficient)

Nutrient availability

Low Medium High

1981-90 1991-2002

1981-90 1991-2002

1981-90 1991-2002

N (OC) 78 66 22 32 0 2

P 48 62 29 23 23 15

K 8 9 45 51 46 40

Deficiency of Micro nutrients in Punjab Soils(% samples deficient)

District Year Cu Fe Mn

Ludhiana 1970 0 0 2

2004 2 7 22

Sangrur 1990 4 7 0

2000 0 18 35

Amritsar 1984 0 0 0

2001 0 4 12

Patiala 1985 1 4 2

2002 0 5 3

Incidence of Diseases• In 1970s• Wheat-Yellow and

brown rust-Flag smut-Karnal bunt

• Rice:-Disease free

• Cotton:-Disease free

• Present Position• Wheat:-New HYVs became susceptible to

new races of brown rust-Flag smut minimized-Karnal bunt became wide spread-Other important diseases: head

scab, leaf blight• Rice:-Bacterial leaf blight major disease; -Other diseases: sheath blight,

sheath rot, false smut, kernel smut

• Cotton:-Leaf curl virus of cotton

Incidence of insect-pests• In 1970s• Rice:-Pest free crop

• Cotton:-Cotton white fly was a

minor pest-American cotton

bollworm reported in localized areas

• Present Position• Rice:-Yellow stem borer and leaf

folder are key pests-Others important are white

backed plant hopper and rice hispa

• Cotton:-Cotton white fly became

key pest-American cotton bollworm

became epidemic

Incidence of Weeds• In 1970s• Rice:-Echinocloa

(swank) was predominant

• Wheat:-Broad leaf weeds

and wild oats were predominant

• Present Position• Rice:-Echinocloa is predominant-New weeds: Ischeamum

ruzosum (kanaki), Ceasulia axillaris (ghrilla), Sphenochlea zylancia

• Wheat:-Phalaris minor is predominant

and has become resistant to Isoproturon through continuous use

-New weeds in some areas: Rumex spinosus (jangli palak), Medicago denticulata (Maina)

Share of Livestock in Agriculture

(Rs crore at 1980/81 prices)Year Agri. Livestock Agri+ Milk Prod. Exp. on milk and

milk products at 1985/86p (Rs/capita)

Livestock 000’ tons Rural Urban

1985-86 2036 944.8 2980.8 4035 39.36 37.15

(68.3) (31.7) (100) (33.17) (28.43)

1990-91 2303 1271.3 3574.3 5142 40.96 37.65

(64.4) (35.6) (100) (33.17) (29.86)

         

2001-02 2876 2026.7 4902.7 7930 39.69 45.2

(58.7) (41.3) (100) (34.62) (34)

The figures in parentheses in case of expenditure on milk and milk proucts represent percent of food expenditure.

Factors affecting Milk ProductionYear Milk

Prod. (000 tons)

Milk Processing Capacity (‘000 lit/day)

Coop. Milk collecting centers (No.)

Per Capita Income (Rs at 1979-81 wholesale prices)

Milk Prices (Rs/liter at 1980/81 consumer prices)

1980-81 3221 950 2593 22588 2.82

1990-91 5142 2090 5263 3416 3.74

2001-02 7930 5535 5812 5111 4.14

CGR (%) 4.57 9.11 3.08 3.11 2.40

Reg. Coeff. (Dependent: Milk prod.)

0.462 0.218 0.589 442.50

(8.46) (4.28) (3.60) (3.83)

Elasticity of Milk prod.

- 0.235 0.188 0.400 0.282

Share of Livestock in NSDP of Primary Sector in different regions/districts (%)

  1980-81 1990-91 2000-01

Sub-Mountain Zone  38.08 35.52  38.65

Gurdaspur 40.27 37.78 40.02

Hoshiarpur 36.24 32.63 35.31

Ropar 37.8 35.77 43.09

Central Zone  34.32 32.26  38.56

Amritsar 37.47 32.69 44.97

Kapurthala 32.8 25.44 34.76

Jalandhar 38.2 31.25 35.04

Ludhiana 34.02 37.61 44.9

Sangrur 31.6 29.33 32.79

Patiala 32.14 31.16 34.4

South Zone  23.65 20.93  25.4

Ferozpur 28.08 21.35 27.22

Faridkot 26.89 20.49 25.1

Bathinda 12.4 20.96 23.75

Determinants of Livestock GrowthDepend: Share of Livestock in NSDP (primary)  

Sub-Mountainous Zone

Central Zone

South Zone

Reg. Coeff. (linear)

Share of Livestock 38.65 38.56 25.4  

Economic Factors        

Av. Milk Yield 4.26 4.68 3.84  

Crop Productivity (Rs/ha) 19773 25153 24430 -0.88

Real PCI (Rs at1980/81p) 5430 6866 6086 0.954

Institutional and Infrastructural Factors      

Milk Soc/100 sq km area 19 13 6  

Villages/milk society 2.34 2.23 1.91 0.59

Animals/Vet. Hospital 3077 3555 4257  

Road Density 126 125 84  

Urbanisation (%) 26 34 27 0.27

Literacy (%) 78 71 58 0.25

Thank You