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Food Security Concerns and Agricultural Policy: Their Environmental Implications for Indian Punjab. R.S. Sidhu. Issues. What are the changes in crop pattern? What is the relationship between production and procurement? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Food Security Concerns and Food Security Concerns and Agricultural Policy:Agricultural Policy:
Their Environmental Their Environmental Implications for Indian Implications for Indian
PunjabPunjab
R.S. SidhuR.S. Sidhu
Issues
1. What are the changes in crop pattern?
2. What is the relationship between production and procurement?
3. What are the implications of high growth in foodgrain production w.r.t. ground water resources and soil?
Gross value of crop output at 2001-02 prices (Rs. crore)
Rice Wheat CottonOilseed
s PulsesSugarc
aneOther
cerealsAggreg
ate1967-68 2394 21036 10203 4571 7637 432 5872 52145
% 4.59 40.34 19.57 8.77 14.65 0.83 11.26 1001980-81
18757 48365 17490 2677 6675 353 4111 98428
% 19.06 49.14 17.77 2.72 6.78 0.36 4.18 1001990-91
37735 76602 29062 1150 7872 540 2272 155232
% 24.31 49.35 18.72 0.74 5.07 0.35 1.46 1002001-02
51133 98217 19569 930 2006 838 2696 175389
% 29.15 56.00 11.16 0.53 1.14 0.48 1.54 100CGR (%) 8.56 4.10 1.35 -4.58 -1.35 1.38 -3.17 3.53
Source: Singh and Sidhu, 2004
Crop 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2001-02
Rice 8.27 20.49 30.50 35.74
Wheat 48.77 48.72 49.48 49.09
Maize 11.75 6.62 2.84 2.37
Gram 7.59 4.47 0.91 0.86
Groundnut 3.69 1.44 0.17 0.05
Rapeseed & Mustard 2.19 2.18 1.12 0.70
Sugarcane 2.72 1.23 1.53 2.05
American Cotton 4.50 8.70 10.47 7.28
Cropping Pattern in Punjab (% of GCA)
Inputs use pattern in PunjabYear Area under
HYVFert.Use Irriga-
ted area (%)
Tube-wells(In
’000)
Tractors Cropp-ing
Intensity
(%)
Rice(000ha)
Wheat(000ha)
Total(000
Nutrient tons)
Per Ha NSA(nutrient kgs)
Total(In Thousands)
No./000 ha
70-71 130 1589 213 50 71 192 5.3 1.3 140
80-81 1095 2757 762 180 81 600 119 28.4 161
90-91 1906 3271 1220 290 93 800 289 68.5 178
02-03 2530 3375 1441 340 95 1150 451 106.8 185
Average use of inputs for wheat and rice in Punjab (Per ha)
Year/Crop Fertilizer use (kg of nutrients)
Chemical Use (Rs. at 1980-81 prices)
Wheat
1981-84 156.70 57.311998-2000 224.00 202.27Paddy
1981-84 180.50 113.691998-2000 182.80 267.75
Share of Punjab state in total procurement in India (in thousand tons)
Year Rice Wheat
Punjab India % share Punjab India % share
1981-82 to 1985-86 18145 41851 43.4 27650 46193 59.9
1986-87 to 1990-91 20426 48324 42.3 27051 42222 64.1
1991-92 to 1995-96 23928 61319 39.0 31208 51568 60.5
1996-97 to 2000-01 28373 80067 35.4 39922 73079 54.6
Source: Economic Survey, Government of India, various issues.
Changes in consumption expenditure (Rs/capita for 30 days at 1980-81 prices)
Punjab All India Items 1987-88 1999-00 1987-88 1999-2000Rural
Cereals 18.63 20.30 28.68 29.61
Pulses 5.02 6.18 4.35 5.08
Milk and Milk products 31.14 35.15 9.46 11.70
Meat, fish, egg 1.06 1.55 3.55 4.44
Vegetables 7.45 9.85 5.71 8.24
Fruits, fresh 2.66 2.60 1.78 1.89
All food 97.54 106.70 69.97 79.36
Urban
Cereals 18.13 20.76 25.66 29.01
Pulses 5.43 6.88 5.86 6.66
Milk and Milk products 29.39 35.70 16.54 20.38
Meat, fish, egg 1.92 2.57 6.14 7.36
Vegetables 10.07 11.35 9.10 12.06
Fruits, fresh 4.64 4.75 4.35 4.58
All food 103.37 116.39 96.98 112.90
Source: NSS data.
Brief Contours of Agricultural Policy in India
India• Land reforms 1950s• Public Investments on Irrigation Development• Setting up of Agricultural Prices Commission and Food
Corporation of India for procurement of foodgrains, 1965
• Green Revolution, 1966-70• Land ceiling and distribution of surplus land, 1972• Integrated Rural Development Program, 1976-• National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development,
1982• Setting up of RRBs• Economic Reforms, 1991• Implementation of WTO agreement, 1995• Targeting of PDS, 1997• Doubling flow of Institutional Agricultural Credit, 2005• Encouraging Agro-processing, 2005• Expanding Micro Irrigation, 2005• Agricultural Market Reforms, 2005
Year Paddy Wheat Barley Maize GramMustard
Cotton (Am)
1980-81 113 130 105 105 165 250 3041990-91 225 225 200 180 450 600 6202000-01 540 610 500 445 1100 1200 16252004-05 590 640 540 525 1425 1700 1760CGR (%)1980-81 to 90-91 5.98 4.93 5.39 4.56 8.51 7.35 5.841990-91 to 2000-01 9.28 10.43 8.70 8.88 8.61 6.22 10.321999-00 to 2004-05
2.45 1.70 3.74 4.54 7.21 9.14 2.12
Coefficient of Variation (de-trended series) of farm harvest prices, 1970-71 to 2001-02
Wheat Rapeseed Gram Barley PaddyCotton
AmCotton Desi G'nut Maize
16.95 16.4 18.3 21.2 9.0 25.8 22.5 24.6 21.5
Growth and Variability in Output Prices
Input and Output Prices Index for Wheat and Paddy in Punjab
YearOutput Fertilizer Chemicals
Wheat
1981-82 100 100 100
1991-92 176 126.68 205.10
1998-99 366.9 192.16 317.9
Paddy
1981-82 100 100 100
1991-92 203.7 112.6 158.3
1998-99 378.5 180.6 339.6
Agricultural subsidies in Punjab(Rs 10 millions)
YearFertilizers Electricity Canal Irrigation
1985-86 266 94 11
1995-96 567 693 30
1999-2000 1061 1939 65
2003-04 1088 807* 37
* as per calculations of Punjab State Electricity Regulatory Commission.Source: Economic Survey of India and Punjab, various issues.
Realisation of cost and level of subsidy on power supply to
agriculture 1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
ACR(%)
10.44 9.39 13.81 22.27 23.83 16.34 0 0 0
Subsidy Rs. million
4664.2 6448.4 7706.5 7201.6 7226.2 9250.4 14701.9 16903.9 20161.8
Share of different crops/enterprises and other activities in the research budget
of the UniversityYear Researc
h Budget (Rs. Million)
Percentage of Research budget to
Wheat & rice
Cotton and S’cane
Other field crops
Horticultre
Livestock and fishery
Post harvesting
Marketing
Others
1980 41.5 16 15 12 12 16 5 1.2 23
1990 144.1 18 12 18 13 11 3 0.5 24
2000 547.1 19 10 12 12 12 4 0.7 30
2001 608.5 20 9 11 11 11 5 0.7 31
Growth and Variability in productivity of different crops in
Punjab Crop CGR 1965/66 to 2001-02 CV of de-trended yield
1970-71 to 2001-02
Paddy 2.72 9.08
Cotton 0.27 25.74
S’cane 1.66 15.65
Maize 1.39 13.33
Wheat 2.76 4.88
Gram 0.25 19.57
Rapeseed 2.57 13.15
Increase in proportionate area of the central zone under water table depth of
more than 10 meter
Year Central zone South west zone
5-10 mt >10 mt 5-10 mt >10 mt
1996 69 25 47 8
1998 49 42 43 12
2000 41 53 50 9
2004 10 90 52 10
In per cent
Per cent area under different water table depths in central zone
0
20
40
60
80
100
1973 1990 2000 2002 2004
<5 mt5- 10 mt>10 mt
Ground Water Status in PunjabRate of Exploitation (%)
Blocks (in per cent of total)
Sub-Mountainous
Central (Paddy zone)
South West(Cotton zone)
Punjab
Below 100 78 17 76 47
100-200 22 63 12 41
200-300 0 15 6 9
300-400 0 3 3 2
Above 400 0 2 3 1
Total Blocks 36 69 33 138
Rise/ fall in Water table
Sangrur 43 Patiala 33 Jalandhar
22 Amritsar 18 Kapurthala 17 Faridkot
13 Ludhiana 13 Ropar 08 Hoshiarpur-1 02 Gurdaspur
02 Hoshiarpur-2 05 Mansa 09 Ferozpur 17 Bathinda 21
Average water table depth (m) in different zones
Zones Measured Predicted1993 2003 2013 2023
Sub-montane
17.6 18.5 19.4 20.3
Central 11.1 16.2 21.3 26.5South-west
6.8 8.9 10.9 13.3
N, P, K Status of Punjab Soils, 1981 through 2002
(In per cent samples deficient)
Nutrient availability
Low Medium High
1981-90 1991-2002
1981-90 1991-2002
1981-90 1991-2002
N (OC) 78 66 22 32 0 2
P 48 62 29 23 23 15
K 8 9 45 51 46 40
Deficiency of Micro nutrients in Punjab Soils(% samples deficient)
District Year Cu Fe MnLudhiana 1970 0 0 2
2004 2 7 22Sangrur 1990 4 7 0
2000 0 18 35Amritsar 1984 0 0 0
2001 0 4 12Patiala 1985 1 4 2
2002 0 5 3
Incidence of Diseases• In 1970s• Wheat-Yellow and
brown rust-Flag smut-Karnal bunt
• Rice:-Disease free
• Cotton:-Disease free
• Present Position• Wheat:-New HYVs became susceptible to
new races of brown rust-Flag smut minimized-Karnal bunt became wide spread-Other important diseases: head
scab, leaf blight• Rice:-Bacterial leaf blight major disease; -Other diseases: sheath blight,
sheath rot, false smut, kernel smut
• Cotton:-Leaf curl virus of cotton
Incidence of insect-pests• In 1970s• Rice:-Pest free crop
• Cotton:-Cotton white fly was a
minor pest-American cotton
bollworm reported in localized areas
• Present Position• Rice:-Yellow stem borer and leaf
folder are key pests-Others important are white
backed plant hopper and rice hispa
• Cotton:-Cotton white fly became
key pest-American cotton bollworm
became epidemic
Incidence of Weeds• In 1970s• Rice:-Echinocloa
(swank) was predominant
• Wheat:-Broad leaf weeds
and wild oats were predominant
• Present Position• Rice:-Echinocloa is predominant-New weeds: Ischeamum ruzosum
(kanaki), Ceasulia axillaris (ghrilla), Sphenochlea zylancia
• Wheat:-Phalaris minor is predominant
and has become resistant to Isoproturon through continuous use
-New weeds in some areas: Rumex spinosus (jangli palak), Medicago denticulata (Maina)
Share of Livestock in Agriculture (Rs crore at 1980/81 prices)
Year Agri. Livestock Agri+ Milk Prod. Exp. on milk and milk products at 1985/86p (Rs/capita)
Livestock 000’ tons Rural Urban
1985-86 2036 944.8 2980.8 4035 39.36 37.15
(68.3) (31.7) (100) (33.17) (28.43)
1990-91 2303 1271.3 3574.3 5142 40.96 37.65
(64.4) (35.6) (100) (33.17) (29.86)
2001-02 2876 2026.7 4902.7 7930 39.69 45.2
(58.7) (41.3) (100) (34.62) (34)
The figures in parentheses in case of expenditure on milk and milk proucts represent percent of food expenditure.
Factors affecting Milk ProductionYear Milk
Prod. (000 tons)
Milk Processing Capacity (‘000 lit/day)
Coop. Milk collecting centers (No.)
Per Capita Income (Rs at 1979-81 wholesale prices)
Milk Prices (Rs/liter at 1980/81 consumer prices)
1980-81 3221 950 2593 22588 2.82
1990-91 5142 2090 5263 3416 3.74
2001-02 7930 5535 5812 5111 4.14
CGR (%) 4.57 9.11 3.08 3.11 2.40
Reg. Coeff. (Dependent: Milk prod.)
0.462 0.218 0.589 442.50
(8.46) (4.28) (3.60) (3.83)
Elasticity of Milk prod.
- 0.235 0.188 0.400 0.282
Share of Livestock in NSDP of Primary Sector in different regions/districts (%)
1980-81 1990-91 2000-01
Sub-Mountain Zone 38.08 35.52 38.65
Gurdaspur 40.27 37.78 40.02
Hoshiarpur 36.24 32.63 35.31
Ropar 37.8 35.77 43.09
Central Zone 34.32 32.26 38.56
Amritsar 37.47 32.69 44.97
Kapurthala 32.8 25.44 34.76
Jalandhar 38.2 31.25 35.04
Ludhiana 34.02 37.61 44.9
Sangrur 31.6 29.33 32.79
Patiala 32.14 31.16 34.4
South Zone 23.65 20.93 25.4
Ferozpur 28.08 21.35 27.22
Faridkot 26.89 20.49 25.1
Bathinda 12.4 20.96 23.75
Determinants of Livestock GrowthDepend: Share of Livestock in NSDP (primary)
Sub-Mountainous Zone
Central Zone
South Zone
Reg. Coeff. (linear)
Share of Livestock 38.65 38.56 25.4 Economic Factors Av. Milk Yield 4.26 4.68 3.84
Crop Productivity (Rs/ha) 19773 25153 24430 -0.88
Real PCI (Rs at1980/81p) 5430 6866 6086 0.954
Institutional and Infrastructural Factors
Milk Soc/100 sq km area 19 13 6
Villages/milk society 2.34 2.23 1.91 0.59
Animals/Vet. Hospital 3077 3555 4257 Road Density 126 125 84 Urbanisation (%) 26 34 27 0.27Literacy (%) 78 71 58 0.25
Thank You