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Food security and climate change
Weber Amaral, PhD ESALQ - USP
Outline
• Context
• Food security and climate change
• Design thinking – materiality and exercise of identifying opportunities
• Concluding remarks
8 Material are responsible for:
Risk mitigation
• Steel; • Aluminium; • Plastic; • Cement; • Glass; • Wood; • Primary crops; • Cattle.
• Resource scarcity and fluctuating commodity prices.
• Resource price volatility is the new norm.
> Resource depletion:
capacidade remanescente de suprimento
El len MacArthur Foundation and McKinsey & Company, 2014
> Recycling rates
taxas de reciclagem
El len MacArthur Foundation and McKinsey & Company, 2014
> Volatility of commodity prices
Oportunities:
GDP growth Policy readiness
Business and societal benefits
• Job creation; • Reduced energy consumption; • Reduced GHG emissions; • Increased resource security; • Innovation driver.
FAO Projections
• Progress has been made in reducing the proportion of the world’s undernourished population from an estimated 980 million in 1990–92 to about 850 million in 2010–12
• 2 billion people still suffer from micro-nutrient deficiencies today.
• Demand for agricultural products is estimated to increase by about 50% by 2030 as the global population increases
Global Food Security Complex - FAO
• the availability of sufficient quantities of food of appropriate quality, supplied through domestic production or imports;
• access by individuals to adequate resources (entitlements) for acquiring appropriate foods for a nutritious diet;
• utilization of food through adequate diet, clean water, sanitation, and health care to reach a state of nutritional well-being where all physiological needs are met; and
• stability, because to be food secure, a population, household or individual must have access to adequate food at all times.
Climate change impacts on food security 1) Climate change impacts on food security will be worst in countries already suffering high levels of hunger and will worsen over time.
2) The consequences for global undernutrition and malnutrition of doing nothing in response to climate change are potentially large and will increase over time.
3) Food inequalities will increase, from local to global levels, because the degree of climate change and the extent of its effects on people will differ from one part of the world to another, from one community to the next, and between rural and urban areas.
4) People and communities who are vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather now will become more vulnerable in the future and less resilient to climate shocks.
5) There is a commitment to climate change of 20 to 30 years into the future as a result of past emissions of greenhouse gases that necessitates immediate adaptation actions to address global food insecurity over the next two to three decades.
6) Extreme weather events are likely to become more frequent in the future and will increase risks and uncertainties within the global food system.
Wheeler & von Braun, 2013, Science
Food security and climate change: reducing risks
• Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on food security. • Climate impact studies must address food security aspects other
than crop yields. • Given the serious threats, action-oriented research is a priority. • Stakeholder-driven portfolios of options should be a focus for
research. • Combining adaptation and mitigation is a key challenge.
Campbell et al. 2016 Global Food Security
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Managing complex landscapes: Solving real problems
Insights
• Land use, LUC; iLUC
• Environmental frameworks and biodiversity conservation
• Food production – costs and externalities
• Water consumption
• Nutrients
• Pests and diseases
• Value chains
• Infrastructure and investments
Land availability: A) Land use changes Region dependent Stringency of environmental frameworks and levels of compliance B) Optimization of current land use
Yield and productivity potential - challenges • Market size • Levels of investment in applied research • Crop dependent – learning curve and new agricultural frontiers • Level of genetic improvement and the role of biotechnology Ex: application of synthetic biology for novel crops and traits ca. 10 years for full deployment An issue of concern: How to leverage existing crop productivity? Sugar cane – 88 ton/ha – (45 - 120 ton/ha) Eucalyptus – 44 m3/ha/year – (27 – 110 m3/ha/year) How? Precision farming and logistics New tools for monitoring productivity: nutrient efficiency and water
VERACEL Cia
How to reconcile feedstock production and conservation strategies?
Environmemtal framework and the Brazilian Forest Code
Several certification schemes being discussed for bioenergy
Eucalyptus plantation Atlantic forest
One of the main targets of this protocol is related with the anticipation of sugar cane burning regime from 2017 to 2014 in flat areas, and from 2031 to 2017 in slope areas*
* Are cons idered s loping areas, when the inclinaiton is more than 12% Source: Única 29
Mecanized areas Non-mecanized areas
% o
f ha
rves
ted
suga
rcan
e w
itho
ut b
urn
Environmentally friendly protocol of the sugarcane industry: the Green Protocol of the Secretary of Environment – São Paulo State - 1/2
The main resolutions and suitable areas for planting sugarcane are shown below: • Protect the areas with original native vegetation and the prohibition of the planting in the Amazonia, Pantanal e Bacia do Alto Paraguai biomes; • Sugarcane planting in areas where the use of water is minimum as possible (rain feed primarily); • A draft law project to recommend the growth of the planting based in the food safety without harming food production; • Look for new places to produce sugarcane, using pasture areas or those occupied by cattle raising.
Source: EMBRAPA 30
Sugarcane zoning and revision of the Forestry Code (1965)
Subtitles: -Suitable areas - Amazonia, Pantanal and Bacia do Alto Paraguai biomas
Pasture
Degraded Area of Permanent Preservation (APP)
Eucalypt
Restored APP
Environmental services Ecological tax (ICMS ecologico and Pro-ambiente) REDD and market instruments Alianca Brasileira para Mudancas Climaticas – several stakeholders
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Integration and systems efficiency Soybeans: 34 M ha Corn (2 crops): 16 M ha Sugarcane: 9.5 M ha Forestry – plantations: 9 M ha Rice: 2 M ha Total Ag. Area: 60 M ha 230 M ton of grains 16/17 Pastures: ca. 160 M ha
33
Carbon credits
9.5 M ha
72 thousand growers
280 mills & distilleries
(Operation & projects) Harvest
480 M tons
ETHANOL 27 billion liters
SUGAR 38 million tons
BAGASSE
Bioproducts
Ethanol
Food
Pharmacy Lysine
Derived
Sugar cane value chain
Some rules for discussion
• Groups – with one or more experts
• Don’t be afraid to express your ideas
• Feel free to suggest and share your thoughts
• From insights to solutions
• Write/draw on a white paper your solution
• 15´ minutes – ideation and protyping
