Food Security and Climate Change Mitigation

Peter Holmgren, FAO3 November 2009

On status of UNFCCC negotiations

• Agriculture Adaptation: Few references in text• Agriculture Mitigation: Contact Group in Bangkok to

produce text -> non-paper. • Text on REDD has progressed well. A Copenhagen outcome

is likely. • It is likely that references to agriculture in a Copenhagen

outcome will be limited. • A work programme on agriculture is proposed for post-

Copenhagen. • References to food security, in the overarching section

entitled a “Shared vision” may be retained.

Two Goals of Our Time

1. Food Security– 1 billion hungry– Overall food production to increase 70% by 2050– Adaptation to Climate Change critical

2. Climate Change Mitigation– ”2 degree goal” requires major emission cuts– Agriculture and Land use = 30% of emissions..– ..and needs to be part of the solution

Two goals, one solution?

• ”Sustainable agriculture, land use, forestry, fisheries and food production”

• Can we address two goals with one approach?

• We have to articulate more clearly that there are actions with synergies and actions with trade-offs

Action Can help Food Security

Can help meet CC mitigation goal

Increase productivity (yields per area) under environmental constraints (sustainable, low-C land management)

Yes (yes)

Reduce expansion of agriculture and sustainable forest management

Yes

Effective water use Yes (yes)

Reduce losses in / more efficient agricultural practises

Yes Yes

Reduce losses in food processing and handling

Yes Yes

Improve agricultural markets and incentives

Yes Yes

Carbon sequestration in vegetation and soil (yes) Yes

CH4

N2O1.8

LUCForestry2.3

Emissions today

4.1 = 30.9% of all emissions

Forestry2.3

Agriculture1.1

Mitigation potential(at 100 $/t)

3.4 Annual storage 0.9

Returns59.1

Carbon Capture / Balance

NPP60 part of

Terrestrial System impact [GtC/yr]

Net impact today ~ 0.9

The Green Sectors can have a significant future positive impact!

Reference levels: Total anthropogenic emissions = 13.4 Fossil fuel combustion = 7.6

On Mitigation options

• Integrate into overall agriculture development– Dealing with Food security, Poverty– AND Mitigation

• FAO report to be released shortly– Draft in Barcelona, Final in Copenhagen

Options for Implementing Agricultural Mitigation in Developing Countries Post-Copenhagen

Issues

• Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV)• Knowledge base

– technical options across geography and agriculture systems– policy / finance options (short term vs. long-term)

• Managing synergies and trade-offs– location and scale specific– changes to meet food security, changes to mitigate

• How bring income/payments to local stakeholders?• Pilots are needed

But solutions also depend on

• demographic changes– population– urbanization

• economic growth• structural changes in agriculture• consumption patterns

Next Steps

• Achieve greater recognition that agriculture can be part of the solution to climate change

• Anchoring Agriculture in Copenhagen Outcome

– and Climate Change in the World Food Summit

• Secure adequate, predictable and sustainable financing

Two Goals

Food SecurityClimate Change Mitigation

We must reach both.