Ti!

FOOD AND CULTU L:-.,MON OF TMW1ITE NATIONS

The Sta te . o .Food and .A..yriaulture 1958

CORR1G IJJ)UM

On page 3, line 5 .rea.d.: 1948/49 - 19,52/53 .instead oI 19S2-.

THE STATE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 1958

TH1-4, Sri ATF, OF FOOD

AND AGRICLTTLRE 1958

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONSRome, 1958

The statistical material in this publication hasbeen prepared from the information available to

FAO up to 30 June 1058

© FAO 1958

Printed in Italy

STABILIMENTO TIPOGRAFICO FAUSTO FAILLI - ROMA

CONTENTS

Foreword1

I. Summary

IL World Review and Outlook 9

TRENDS IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONGrowth of Production in Individual Countries 14Agricultural Production in 1.957/58 and Short-Terin Prospects 16

THE VOLUME OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL PROD U CTS 19Forest Products 24Agricultural Trade of Eastern Europe and the 'U.S.S.R.. 24

SPECIAL MEASURES TO E )(PAN]) AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS 27United States Operations 27Exports from European Countries 30

ORANCIES IN STOCK LEV ELS IN 1957/58 31

PRICE TRENDS IN INTERNATION AL MARKETS AND EARNINGS Elton{ AGRI-CULTURAL EXPORTS 33

Forest Products 37Earnings from Agricultural Exports 37

GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND THE DEMAND FOR AGRICULTURALPRODUCTS 41

Short-Term. Outlook 42

PRICES AND THE FARMER 42Price Levels in Different Countries 44

FARm INCOMES 46

CONSUMER PRICES 48

FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL PROBLEMS IN]) POLICIES IN 1957/58 51

North America 53Western Europe 56

Australia and New Zealand 58Latin America 58

Far East 59

Near East 62

Africa 63

-U.S.S.R. and Eastern European Countries 64

vii

FOREST POLICY 67

North America 67

Western Europe 67

viii

Latin America 67

Far East 67

Near East 68Africa 68U.S.S.R. and Eastern Europe 68

AGRICULTURAL REQUISITES 68Farm Machinery 68Fertilizers 70

COMMODITY SURVEY AND OUTLOOK 71

Wheat 71

Coarse Grains 72Rice 73Sugar 74Meat 74Eggs 75Dairy Products 76Fishery Products 77Fats and Oils 78Fresh Fruit 79Dried Fruit and Wine 80Cacao 80Coffee 81

Tea 81

Tobacco 82Cotton 83Wool 84Jut-e 84Hard Fibers 85Rubber 86Forest Products 87

IH. Food and Agricultural Developments in Africa South of the Sahara 90

INTRODUCTION 90Population 91Physical Factors 92The Agriculture of Africa South of the Sahara 94

POSTWAR TRENDS IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, TRAUE, AND PRICES 96

General Economic Trends 96Agricultural Production 97Trade in Agricultural Products 100

Main Commodities 1.05

Producer Prices and Incomes 114

Consumer Prices 116

F000 CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION 116Dietary Patterns 117

Food Habits; 118

Food Consumption Levels 119

Factors Influencing Food Consumption 121

Nutritional Status 123

Measures to Combat Malnutrition 125

ix

TECHNICAL PROGRESS IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION" 126Land Utilization 126Soil Fertility 128Farm Implements and Machinery 129Forestry Production 130Crop Production 130Livestock 133Fisheries 135The Organization of Agricultural Research 136Training and Education 137Extension Services 138

THE CHANGING INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK 139Land Tenure 139Agricultural Credit 141.

Co-operatives 142Marketing Organization and Price Policies 144

AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PLANS 148Over-all Plans of Economic Development 148Other Public and Semipublic Investments in Agricultural Develop-

ment 151Private Agricultural Investment 152Trends in the Supply of Capital for Agricultural Development . 153Agricultural Development Policies and Projects 154

MAIN PROBLEMS 157Low Productivity 158Nutritional Problems 159Export Problems 160The Organization of -Measures for Improvement 161

IV. The Growth of Forest Industries and their Impact on the World's Forests 103

INTRODUCTION 163The Food-Gatherer and Hunter 163The Farm Versus the Forest 166

The Need for Fuel 167Wood for Industry 168Avoidable Calamities 168The Rise of Forest Consciousness 169

THE GROWTH OE THE FOREST INDUSTRIES 170

Introduction 170The Sawmilling Industry 172The Pulp and Paper Industry 176The Plywood and Veneer Industry 178The Board Industries 180Conclusions 183

THE IMPACT OF THE FOREST INDUSTRIES 184The Industrialist as Timber Miner 188Industry Seeks a Sustained. Crop 189

The Forester's Battle for Recognition 190The Forest Owner 191

The Forest and the Community 193The Integration of Interests 195

Meeting Future Needs 196

Annex Tables 199

List of Figures

Per Caput Agricultural Production in Economically More and LessDeveloped Regions

Growth of World Agricultural Production and Share of DifferentRegions 12

Growth. of Agricultural Production and Share of Main Commodity Crroups 13Total Supplies of Selected Commodities in Western European Countries,

Showing Proportion Covered by Domestic Production, by Intra-European Trade, and by Imports from Outside the Region, 1934-38and 1953/54 - 1955/56 29

II-5(a). Volume of Gross Exports of Agricultural Products from I_Ass DevelopedRegions and Volume of Gross Imports of Foodstuffs 24

II-5(b). Volume of Gross Imports of Agricultural Products into More DevelopedRegions and Volime of GrOSS Exports of Foodstuffs 21

II-6. Growth of Certain :ley Stocks Of Agricultural Products in the World andin North America, 1952-58 33

II-7(a, b). Average Prices of Selected Agricultural Products in World Trade,Quarterly Data, 1954-57

II- S. Average Unit Values of Agricultural Products in World Trade in Rela-tion to Average Export Valu.es of Manufactured. Goods, QuarterlyData, 1954-57 37

11-9. Volume and Real Value of Agricultural Exports by Regions 40Index of Prices Received and Prices Paid by Farmers 43Average Peturns to Farmers for Selected Commodities in V. rious Coun-

tries, 1956/57 45Wheat (All Grades) : Average Receipts by Farmers in Selected Coun-

tries 1955/56 and 1956/57, and Average World Unit Values of Exports- and Imports, 1956/57 46Dominion Wool Prices 84:_Hard Fiber Prices, New York, 1955-58 86

T.II-1(a). Africa South of the Sahara : Mean Annual :Rainfall 93III-1(b). Africa South of the Sahara : Schematic Soil Map 93III-1(c). Africa South of the Sahara : Schematic Vegetation Map 94

Africa South of the Sahara: Trends in Agricultural Production and inPopulation Com.pared with the World as a Whole 98

Africa South of the Sahara : Indices of the Production of the Main Com-modities and Cominodity Groups 100

111-4. Africa South of the Sahara : Indices of the Volume of Exports of theMain Agricultural Products 101

Africa .South of the Sahara : Volume and Total Value of AgriculturalExports 102

Africa South of the Sahara : Main Staple Food Zones 117IV-1(a). Population of the World 164IV-1(b). Forests of the WorldIV-2(a). Wood Consumption by -Regions, 1955IV-2(b). Wood Consumption per 1,000 Capita, 1955 1.671V-3. Forest Area of the World 186

FOREWORD

This year's annual report on the state of food and agriculture gives specialattention to a comparison, of the situation in the economically more developed andTess developed parts of the world.

In 1957158 there was, for the first time, a check in the steady postwar expansionin the world agricultural output. White the immediate cause was unfavorable weatherin a number of important producing areas, it is shown that longer-term economicfactors were also in large measure responsible. Growing agricultural surpluses, mainlyin the more developed countries of the world, have red increasingly to policy measuresto restrain further expansion, and for some years these, have led to a considerableslowing down of the, tempo of agricultural developme,nt. By contrast, the rate of agri-cultural expansion in the less developed countries has generally be,en weil maintaine,d,apart from the vagaries of weather, particularly for the major part of their outputwhich, is destined for their own consumption. Production, for export has to SOMe ex-tent been afiected by the agricultural surpluses in the more industrialized parts of theworld. :Moreover, real earnings from agricultural exports have been reduced by thedownward drift of their prices on world markets, side by side with a continuing risein prices of manufactured goods.

The paradoxical situation has arisen that in the more developed countries, whe,resupplies are already abundant or overabundant, technical progress has made possiblea further rapid expansion of output if markets for larger supplies could be found.On the other hand, in the less developed countries, where de,mand is increasing rapidlywith the fast growth of population and rising standards of living, agricultural expan-sion is more difficult because of more primitive techniques, tack of investment capitaland often unsuitable systems of land tenure an,d other institutions. The report sug-gests that these 'disparities have often been increased by the, agricultural price policiesof the two groups of countries.

The implications of this situation for future agricultural development policiesand for international trade in agricultural products are discussed in Chaptér II ofthe report, the general survey. This chapter contains also the usual review of recentproduction developments in all parts of the world, of trends in agricultural trade, andprices, and of the outlook for the main agricultural comm,odities.

Chapter III of the report consists of a special regional study of food and agri-cultural developments in Africa South of the Sahara. The growing internationalinterest in this region has already been reflected in decisions to establish a UnitedNations Regional Economic Commission for Africa and also a Regional Office ofFAO. It is time, therefore, for FAO to begin to devote as much, attention to studiesof Africa as to those of the other economically less developed regions. The preliminaryreview included in the present report ranges over the whole field of postwar food andagricultural developments in this vast and diverse, region and therefore gives only thebriefest introductory sketch of many important problems. This course was chosen,however, in preference to a more detailed study of some specific question, as it wasfelt that a broad genera review would provide a background of basic data against

which future analyses of particular problems could be seen in better perspective. Itis aleo hoped that it may give rise to suggestions as to which, problems should begiven priority for special study in the future.

The second special chapter, Chapter IV, reviews the rapid postwar growth ofthe world's forest products industries and their impact 072 the world's forests. Ascountries become economically more developed their requirements of sawnwood, ply-wood and fibreboard, and especially of wood pulp and paper, increase immensely,and these industries are expanding and also becoming more and more widely dispers-ed throughout the world. The world's forests are adequate to meet these expandingdemands, thanks to more efficient and rational utilization of wood and to forestimprovem,ents, though in many areas extensive reafjorestation is necessary both for theproduction of timber and for protective purposes. Moreover, the growing attentiongiven to forest conservation and forest inflztences is lessening the danger of thatreckless exploitation which in the past has gravely depleted the forest and soil resourcesof so many countries of the world.

The special studies of developments in Africa and of the impact of the growthof forest industries on th,e world's forests ta/ce on a fatter significance if read againstthe background provided by the review of the world situation in Cha pter II. Takentogeth,er, the three parts of the report cover a wide field and put into perspectiveproblems which, though primarily agricultural, have much wider implications, inparticular on present efforts to raise standards of human well-being, especially in theeconomically less developed countries of the world.

2

B.R.SENDirector-General

Chapter II. World Review and Outlook

Agricultural Production. The year 1957/58saw the first check in the steady expansionof world agricultural production since the war,and the preliminary FAO index of world agri-cultural production (average 1952-53 1.00) fellback to 119 against 120 in the previous year.World per caput agricultural production de-clined from 109 in 1956/57 to 107 in 1957/58.The output of the world's fisheries and forestswas also slightly lower in l957/58 than theyear before.

Agricultural production continued to increasein the Near East and more slowly in Europe,the U.S.S.R. and Latin America. But in theFar East there was no increase over the recordlevel of 1956/57, while in Africa, Oceania, andespecially North America agricultural produc-tion in 1[957/58 was appreciably lower than theyear before.

In each case the weather vas an immediatecause of the setback. The monsoon rains cametoo late or a full rice crop in many countriesof Southeast Asia. There was a partial fail-ure of the cereal crop in North Africa and asevere drought in Australia after a rUll of goodseasons. In North America a pool grain cropin the Canadian Prairie Provinces coincidedwith a downturn in the pig and cattle cyclesin the United States and also with cutbacksin cotton and tobacco production under theSoil Bank program.

General Background. 'There are, however, anumber of underlying factors which in recentyears have slowed down the whole tempo ofagricultural expansion in the economically moredeveloped countries of the world and, to someextent, in the less developed countries as well.They are briefly considered below, before sum-marizing other main features of the currentfood and agricultural situation.

Chapter I - SUMMARY

3

In the economically more advanced countriesagricultural policies are increasingly dominatedby the problem of agricultural surpluses. Na-tional incomes and consumption levels per ca-pe, are already fairly high and the demandfor agricultural products rises only slowly, es-pecially in the food-importing countries ofWestern Europe where population shows rela-tively little increase. Moreover, much of anyincrease in demand at the retail level is ab-sorbed by more elaborate processing and dis-tribution services, and a .relatively small partis transferred back to thc, farm. Althoughrecent striking improvements in agriculturalmethods would make it relatively easy to stepup production, any such expansion must berestrained in view of mounting surpluses. Tb.eslow growth of demand naturally affects notonly farmers in th.e industrialized countriesthemselves, but also farmers elsei,vhere who aredependent on exports to these countries.

The situation is very different in the lessdeveloped countries. On the one hand, evensmall rises in income lead to relatively sharprises in the demand for food, which are super-imposed upon the increase due to the rapidgrowth of population. On the other hand,in many countries primitive methods of agri-culture, together with lack of capital andobsolete systems of land tenure and other insti-tutional difficulties, make it hard to expandproduction in line with the rapid growth ofdemand.

These disparities appear to have been inten-sified by the price policies of the two groupsof countries, arising from differences betweentheir social and economic structure. In manyof the more developed countries relativelyhigh farm prices have tended to stimulate pro-duction and to restrain consumption, while inmany of the less developed countries relativelylow ceilings on consumer prices appear oftento have liad the reverse effect.

These considerations, discussed more fully inthe section on agricultural policies, appear large-ly to explain some important recent trendsin th.e world food and agricultural situation.Fo example, in the more developed regions ofthe -world the average annual increase in out-put in the past four years was only one thirdof that in the four preceding years, while inthe less developed regions progress has been:fairly well maintained. Again, net exports offoodstuffs from the less to the more developedregions had, by 1956/57, fallen to about onethird of their prewar level. Food exports fromthe more developed regions, notably NorthAmerica and Oceania, on the other hand, haverisen sharply and 110 W not only provide alarger share of the Europea food supply,but are moving in rapidly increasing quantitiesto the less developed countries themselves.

Volante of International Trade. The rise inthe volume of world trade in agricultural prod-ucts which began in 1955, after several yearsof stability at about the prewar level,. contin-ued in the calendar year 1957. But the increaseof 3 percent over 1956 was a good deal lessthan in the two preceding years when it aver-aged 8 percent. As before, the :increased volumeof trade was largely, though by no means en-tirely, due to surplus disposal operations inthe 'United States and to a much lesser extentin Western Europe, the largest single itembeing the large increase in United States ship-ments of cotton under special terms. On theimport sitie, some 60 percent of the :increasedvolume of trade was accounted for by largerimports into Western Europe, mainly of rawmaterials and beverages, and some 30 percentby larger food imports into the Far East, partlyfor reserve stocks and partly for current con-sumption, in spite of the record rice crop har-vested in late 1956. Although there was some-weakening of demand, the volume of worldtrade in forest products in 1957 was maintain-ed at the previous year's level.

Following the record harvest of 11956 therewas a sharp rise in grain exports from theU.S.S.R. in 1957, mainly to Eastern Europetrade between the Communist group of coun-tries is not included in the FAO indices of thevolume of agricultural trade. There was also amarked rise in Soviet exports of forest products,including exports to countries outside Europe.

Special Measures to Expand Agricultural Exports.A review of surplus disposal operations in recent

years indicates that some 30-40 percent of'United States agricultural exports are currentlyshipped under special programs, while paymentsunder other government subsidies amount tosome 6 - 8 percent of the total value of UnitedStates agricultural exports outside the specialprograms. Directly or indirectly subsidized ex-ports of agricultural products from WesternEurope are also increasing, but because of thecomplexities of the various systems no esti-mate can be made of their extent. Othercountries also use various methods of expand-ing agricultural exports, including special creditsand multiple exchange rates ; again, no esti-mate of their total extent is possible, but theyappear to be on a smaller scale than those inthe United States and Western Europe.

Changes in Stock :Levels. In spite of measuresto restrain production and vigorous campaignsof surplus disposal, aggregate world stocks ofagricultural products at mid-1958 showed littlechange froxn a year earlier. They are nowestimated to be equivalent to about 10 percentof world agricultural production. About threequarters are located in North America.

Wheat stocks -fell by some 5 million tons(1.0 percent) during 1957/58, mainly because ofsmaller crops in North America, but are likelyto rise sharply in 1958159. Stocks of coarsegrains in North America rose by nearly a quar-ter to the record level of over 60 million tonsand are likely to rise further in 1958/59. Stocksof cotton in the United States, however, havebeen reduced by some 40 percent from peaklevels in rnid-1956. There was a renewed risein world stocks of butter in 1957/58 and afurther rise in stocks of coffee, after a temporarydecline in 1956/57.

Price Trends in International Markets. Theslow decline in the general level of agriculturalprices on world markets was reversed tempo-rarily in the first half of 1957, but was resumedlater in the year a,nd in early 1958. Never-theless, the FAO index of average export unitvalues of agricultural products for the year1957 as a whole (average 1952-53 100) at95 was three points higher than in the yearbefore. The halt was in a sense illusory,however, since prices of manufactured goodson world markets continued to rise. Theaverage purchasing power of agricultural ex-ports for manufactured goods therefore fellfor the third year in succession. In comparisonwith the base period 1952-53, the average pur-

chasing power of agricultural products has fal-len by about 10 percent, of which about onehalf represents lower agricultural prices andthe other hall the increase in average exportunit values of manufactures.

The average figures naturally conceal consid-erable differences between commodities. Thus,prices of, for example, cereals and butter tend-ed to fall continuously, while cocoa prices re-covered, though. prices of both coffee and cocoaremain niuch lower than in the boom year1954. Prices of forest products were maintain-ed in 1957 but began to fall in early 1958.:Details for individual commodities are givenin Annex Table 12.

Earnings from Agricultural Exports. Prelim-inary estimates suggest that the increase inthe volume of world agricultural exports slight-ly more than compensated for their fall inpurchasing power, so that total earnings fromagricultural exports (in real terms) were frac-tionally higher in 1957 than in 1956. The dif-ference was slight, however, and for some regions,including Latin America and the Far East,real earnings from agricultural exports wereappreciably lower than in 1956. Moreover, themain rise in export values occurred in NorthAmerica and thus essentially reflected the in-crease in exports under special terms. Therewas also a substantial rise in both the volumeand value of agricultural exports from theNear Eastern region.

General Economic Conditions and time Demandfor Agricultural Products. The recession in theUnited States and the slowing down of eco-nomic expansion in Western Europe led to someweakening of the demand for agricultural andforest products on international markets. Onthe other hand, the demand for domesticallyproduced foodstuffs, and in general for agricul-tural raw materials, has been generally wellmaintained in both industrial and less develop-ed countries.

The immediate outlook or 1958/59 in themore industrialized countries seems at best tobe no more than a maintenance of the levelof economic activity of early 1958, and thereare as yet no tangible signs of an economicrecovery, though an upturn in 1959 is widelyexpected. In the circumstances no strengthen-ing of the import demand for agricultural andforest products seems likely in the immediatefuture, but recent experience, together with themeasures being adopted in some countries for

5

maintaining consumer purchasing pOwer and forthe revival of economic activity, suggest thatthe over-all domestic demand for foodstuffs islikely to be maintained.

Farm Prices and Incomes. In most countries,especially in the more developed regions, 'farmprices were reasonably stable and in some casesshowed a small increase in 1957/58, largely be-cause of the influence of price support measuresor of temporary shortages of supplies. In manycountries, however, as in international markets,the p1-ices of the goods farmers buy increasedmore rapidly than those of farm products, sothat their purchasing power declined. Both ininternational and domestic markets, farmershave thus been unfavorably affected by continu-ing p1-ice increases in the economy as a whole.

'Up-to-date information on trends of farmincomes is available for rather few countries,and only for economically more developed coun-tries. Farmers appear to have suffered somefall in incomes in nearly all exporting countries,including the United States, though some im-provement occurred in early 1958. In mostimporting or self-sufficient countries, on theother hand, measures to support farm incomesappear to have been reasonably successful, andin a few instances, e.g., the United Kingdomand Western Germany, there was some increasein absolute terms, though not in comparisonwith incomes in other sectors of the economy.

Comparisons of average returns to farmersPm ton of some of the main farm products(Annex Table 13) bring out the wide variationfrom country to country under present supportsystems. They give some indication of thedifficulties which arise in reducing tariffs andother obstacles to international trade in agri-cultural products.

Consumer Prices. The upward trend of retailpm-ices continued in 1957, though there wereindications that the rise may have been some-what slower than in 1956. However, of 89countries for which indices of retail prices arcavailable, the index rose to a greater or lesserextent in 69, and only in 20 was there stabilityor some decline. In most countries food priceskept fairly closely in line with the movementof the general cost of living. Increases in retailfood p1-ices reflected partly higher farm p1-icesand partly the continuing rise in distributioncosts, while in some countries there was alsoreduction or abolition of consumer subsidies orthe removal of price controls.

Agricultural .Policies. In the econotnicallymore advanced countries there were relativelyfew major policy changes during .1957/58, thoughincreasing a,ttention is being given to a morefundamental approach to the problem of agri-cultural surpluses a,nd towards channeling pro-duction towards the commodities where some,further increase in demand seems likely. InAVestern Europe the problems arising from theestablishment of the Common Market and thenegotiations for a wider Free Trade Area havereceive:d much attention.

In many of the les developed countries,badly needed measures for agricultural expan-sion and general economic development havebeen hampered by shortages of investmentfunds, largely because of declining export earn-ings. Nevertheless, vigorous efforts are beingmade to keep pace with growing requirements,and in a number of cases greater priorities havebeen giVen to agricultural projects and th.eshare of agriculture in available investmentfunds increased. Several countries are establish-ing or considering the establishment of reservestocks as an insurance against future sh.ortagesand as a contribution to greater farm pricestability.

A number of changes llave been announceddu.ring the year in the agricultural policies ofthe Communist group of countries, especiallythe 'U.S.S.R., as part of the drive to catch upwith the unsatisfied demand for consumer goodsstemming from the long period of priority forheavy industry. In many instances, prices tofarmers have been raised and methods for thecollection and sale of agricultural productssintplified. In the U.S.S.R. the machine tractorstations are being disbanded and their equip-ment sold to collective farms, which will havegreater autonomy, both financially and in plan-ning their production.

Commodity Situation and Outlook. Short sum-maries of the current situation and short-termoutlook for each of the major agricultural prod-ucts are set out in the final section of Chap-ter II. These are already highly condensedand do not lend them.selves to further summary.

Chapter III. Food and AgriculturalDevelopments in Africa South ofthe Sahara

Almost all countries of Africa South of theSahara are largely agricultural and depend pri-marily on agricultural exports for foreign earn-

6

ings. Some three quarters of the population areengaged in agriculture, a higher proportionthan in any other major region. Populationgrowth has accelerated since the war, but isslower than in other developed regions, andits density is still generally low. With only 5percent of the world's population, the, regionis estimated to contain more than 15 percentof the total agricultural area. Agriculturalprod.uction, however, is only about 4 percentof the world total, though in trade the regionlooms larger and accounts for the major por-tion of world exports of oil palm produce,groundnuts, cacao and sisal.

The main food and agricultural problemas ofthe region are summarized in the concludingpart of the chapter and roughly fall underthree principal headings : low productivity, thepoor quality of diets, and the vulnerability ofexport revenues to fluctuations in world pric,es.

Production, Trade, and Prices. Agriculturalproduction has increased rema,rkably rapidlysince the war, but is still low in relation to pop-ulation and to available land and is largelysubsistence in character.

The volume of exports has grown even fast-er than production and most of the main prod-ucts, except for cocoa and oil palm produce,have shown a very sharp expansion. Exportvalues have fluctuated considerably, with se-rious effects as the exports of many territoriesconsist almost entirely of one or two products.Incomes received by producers, however, haveto some extent been protected by the pricestabilization sch.emes in many territories. Themuch smaller volume of agricultural importshas also increased rapidly-.

Fish. production is almost four times the pre-war :level, most of the increase coming fromAngola, the Union of South Africa, and SouthWest :Africa. Most of the large forested areais inaccessible, while commercial e,xploitationis limited by .its mixed character, but the smallproduction and exports of forest products areincreasing.

Food Consumption and Nutrition. Food pro-duction appears to have more than kept pacewith the postwar growth of population, anddietary surveys indicate that in general theintake of calories more or less corresponds tocalculated needs. In some areas, however, thereis still a severe shortage in the period immedi-ately preceding the harvest, while deficienciesof protein, especially animal protein, and of

ceEtain vitamins and ninerals are widesprea,d,as the starchy staple crops predominate veryhea,vily. Food habits and the idea that cattleare primarily a store of wealth also militateagainst dietary improvement in many areas.Among the rapidly growing urban populationsincreases in income are of overriding importancein better nutrition. The qualitative deficien-cies of diets, above all the lack of protein,cause much morbidity and mortality, contri-buting especially to the high rate of mortalityin children between one and fui years andreducing the productivity of the adult popu-lation.

Technical Progress. Although the popu a-tion is sparse by world standards, in manyareas it is already too great for the maintenanceof fertility under shifting cultivation, and thedevelopment of satisfactory systems of perma-nently settled agriculture is .imperative. A largepart of the forest cover has already been de-stroyed, with se,rious effects on soil and waterresources. The present low economic valueof the :forests is part cause of their destruction.

In spite of the rapid postwar expansion of.research services, much remains to be learnedabout the maintenance and increase of fertilityin tropical and subtropical soils. Crop improve-ments and plant protection have so far beenconcentrated largely on export crops and more.research is needed on local food crops, especiallythose which could improve dietary quality.Although many animal diseases can 110 NV becontrolled, the tsetse fly still excludes themore productive breeds of cattle from abouthadf of the region. Th.e development of suit-able systems of mixed farming for the Africancultivator is making slow progress. The prac-tical application of improved techniques also.1ags far behind the results of research and thegap will grow wider unless extension servicesare expanded.

The Changing institutional Framework. Main-ly under the influence, of the development ofcash crops, tribal systems of land tenure areevolving in many areas toward the individual-ization of land ownership, with government aida,nd. safeguards. The supply of agriculturalcredit seems inadequate and there is probablymuch scope for the experimental introductionof supervised credit and for a further develop-ment of co-operative credit. Agricultural co-operatives, mainly of the marketing andcredit types, have made good progress in many

7

parts of the region. A large number of publicor semipublic organizations have also been estab-lished, especially since the war, for the mar-keting of specified export crops. Guaranteedproducer prices are now -widespread, quality hasbeen improved by the introduction of gradingsystems and better methods of processing, whilemarketing has also been assisted by consider-able improvements in transport facilities. Con-cern with export marketing has, however,sometimes led to a comparative neglect oflocal food products.

_Agricultural Development .Plans. Since thewar, agriculture, :forestry, and fish.eries havebenefited from a marked expansion in publicdevelopment expenditure, both directly and alsoas a result of improvements in basic services.Apart from the large part played by metro-politan financial assistance, the high proportionof total funds devoted to basic services, parti-cularly transport, and to social projeets is

noteworthy. Recently an increased proportionhas been allocated to the directly productivesector, including agriculture. .There are signsof the emergence of a shortage of developmentcapital. In the earlier postwar years, the lackof equipment and technicians were generallythe chief limiting factors.

Chapter IV. The Growth of the ForestIndustries and their Impact on theWorld's Forests

Man's relationship to the forest has changedthrough the centuries, but under this influencethe forest area has almost continuously diminish-ed. The most serious encroachments occurredlong before time advent of modern forest indus-tries, through clearance of forested land foragriculture and the reckless exploitation of the:forests for fuel and wood for construction.Yet the major forest industries, particularlysawmilling (since the advent of the steamengine a century ago) and the pulp and papelindustry, have made serious incursions in theforest at various times and in particular areas.

Sawmilling, the oldest of th.e major forestindustries, remains the most important, fol-lowed, both in seniority and importance, bythe pulp and paper industry, the plywood in-dustry and board products manufacture. Gen-erally speaking, the younger the industry themore rapid its cuiTent growth mate, whichis leading to a change in the pattern of raw

material requirements from the forest, since theseveral industries differ in their ability to makeuse of particular dimensions and species of tim-ber. In recent years there has also been rapidprogress in broadening the raw material basisof these industries. The changing pattern oftotal timber needs carries important implica-tions both for the economic operation of theforest industries and, through a more rationalutilisation of the forest crop, for forestry.

In recent decades the pressure on foresti'esources, and the need of heavily capitalizedforest industries to assure their raw materialrequirements over a longer period, have helped topromote forest conservation and sound forestpractice. This favorable trend has been facil-itated by advances in forest science and by ris-ing forest consciousness, including a more wide-spread understanding of the multiple role ofthe. forest. A major problem is how to bringabout improved forestry practices 011 the partof the many millions of small forest 011711erS 011Wil0111 the forest industries must largely dependfor their future timber supplies.

8

So long as a recognition of the communityinterest in the forest, based on an informedpublic opinion, was lacking, the professional forester was naturally conserva,tive, striving tosafeguard the needs of posterity against insist-ent current demands on the forest. With therival interests in the forest, and notably the for-est industries, increasingly disposed to takea long-term view, the professional forester isable to pay more attention to ensuring that theneeds of users, whether in the shape of timber

amenities, or other non-crop values, are

Economic growth will bring a continued risein the demand for forest products, but thereneed be no d.oubt of the forests' ability to meetthis demand. Apart from the huge areas offorest still untapped and the new forest resourceswhich must be created in certain areas,there is today, even in. the countries most ad-vanced in forestry, a considerable gap betweenthe actual and potential yield of the forest. Howfar this gap can be diminished depends as muchon economic factors as on technical possibilities.

Chapter II - WORLD REVIEW KND OUTLOOK

TRENDS IN AGRICULTURALPRODUCTION

The year 1957/58 saw a check in the steadypostwar rise in world agriculturad production.According to preliminary estimates, total pro-du.ction continued to grow rapidly in the NearEast, where the weather was very favorable,and more slowly in Europe, the U.S.S.R., andLatin America,. In the Far East, however,there was a slight decline in the high levelof output reached in 1956/57, while in Africa,Oceania, and North America production in1957/58 was appreciably lower than the yearbefore (Table 114). .111 each case the declinewas due mainly to the weather, though. inNorth Arnerica other factors played an impor-tant part. There was a partial crop failurein North Africa, while Australia suffered badlyfrom drought after several favorable seasons.

TABLE II-1. INDEx NumBERs OF AGRICULTURAL PROD UCTION

9

In North A.merica, a pool grain crop in theCanadian Prairies Provinces coincided with a(10WiltUVII in the hog and cattle cycles in theUnited States and a consequent fall in meatproduction, and with, reductions in the outputof cotton and tobacco. The situation in eachregion is reviewed more fully in later paragraphs.

But while the weather was the immediatecause of the decline in world producti.on in1957/58 there had been for some years a slow-ing down in the rate of expansion, especiallyin the regions of the world with higher levelsof income and more advanced agricultures. Itis apparent from. Table II-1 th.at in the latterregions there has been little increase in outputsince 1953/54. The position is examined fur-ther in Table II-2, where the average annualincrease in production in the four years from1952/53-1953/54 to 1956/57-1957/58 are compar-ed with the corresponding rise in the four

'Including estimates for the U.S.S.R., Eastern Europa, and Mai usad China.

:RnoioN Prewaraverage 1953/51 1951/55 1955/56 1956/57 1957/98

(prelim.)

4verafir 1948149 - 1951153 =- 100

Western Europe 93 115 115 116 116 117

:North America, 73 107 104 109 114 109

Oceania 88 108 108 116 114 111

Three above regions 82 110 108 112 114 112

Latin AmericaFar East (excl. China)Near Ea tAfrica

82978378

108110119113

112113119119

116116192119

120119127123

122119131120

Four above mgion- 88 111 114 117 121 121

All above regionsWorld'

85 111110

1.11111

115115

118120

117119

preceding years. The ,comparisons are madebetween the average production in two succes-sive seasons in order to minimize the influenceof weather.

The growth of production in the agriculturallymore advanced :regions :is seen to have beenless than one third as fast in the last fouryears than in the four preceding years, thesharp fall in the rate of growth in WesternEurope from the high level of the earlier periodbeing particularly striking. The slower tempoin these regions must be attributed primarilyto the inhibiting effects of agricultural surpluses.in general, weather has not been less favorable,and technically there appears to have been noreason why the more rapid expansion of theearher years should not have conthrited.

in the economically less developed regionsthe rate of expansion has been more sustained.There has been a decline of SOBle 20 percentin the average rate of progress in the fourregions taken together, though Latin Ame,ricais an exception to the generally slower trend,but this is of an altogether different order ofmagnitude from the sharp change in the easeof the first group. As :inclioated elsewhere, therapid growth of domestic demand in the :lessdeveloped regions is the main factor which hasmade possible this contin.uing rapid expansion.Some countries, ho WeVeV, have liad to curtailtheir agricultural development programs forlack of investment funds, e.g., as a result of

TABLE TI-2. AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH OF AG RICULT URA L PRopuorroN AND OF POPULATION IN THEFOUR-YEAR PERIOD TO 1956/57-1957158 COMPARED WITH THE PRECEDING FOUR YEARS

10

the general fall in real prices on export markets.In other cases such factors as the inadequaciesof local systems of marketing, unrealistic pricepolicies, unsuitable methods of 'land tenure, orshortage of farm credit have tended to hamperagricultural progress.

Table II-2 shows also the average mate ofgrowth of the population of each region duringthe period under review. In the first four-year period to 1952/53-1953/54 the growth ofagricultural production exceeded the growth ofpopulation in each region of the world exceptOceania, where, however, the increase in pop-ulation seas particularly fast. In the most:recent four-year period production has alsolagged behind population in North America,as well as in the ttiree, "higher-income" regionstaken together. But production has contin-ued to grow faster than population in each ofthe economically less developed regions, and inthe world as a whole.

The combined influence of the growth ofpopulation and of agricultural production areshoW11 in Figure II-1, .whieli shows th.e postwartrend of per caput agricultaral production inthe more and in the less economically develop-ed regions, respectiv:ely. Two striking factsemerge fl'0111 this chart, and froin the similarfigures of total and per caput food productionin Table T1-3. The first is that in the lessdeveloped regions taken as a whole per caputproduction, both of food and of all agricultural

'Excluding estimates for Eastern filurope, the U.S.S.R., and Ifilialand

IIMOTON 1948/49-49/50to

1952/53-53/5,1,

1959/53-53/54to

195057-57/58

1948/19-4059to

1052/53-53154

1952153-53/54to

1956/57-57/58

Pe Tani

Western Europe 4.8 1.3 0.7 0.8North America 2.1 0.8 1.8 1.9Oceania 1.8 1.1 2.9 2.4

Average three above regions 3.2 1.0 1.1 L2

Latin America 2.9 3.1 2.4 2.4Far East (excl. China) 2.7 2.4 1.5 1.5Near East 5.9 3.0 2.2 2.1Africa, 4.3 2.3 1.9 1.8

Average four above regions 3.3 2.6 1.8 1.7

World' 3.1 2.4 1.5 1.5

Average annual Average annualincrease in agricultural production increase in population

FIGURE II-1, Per Caput Agricultural Production in Economically More and Less Developed Regions

Indices : 1948/49-1952/53 Average == 100

110

100

90

00°

products. WiliS no g roo,t or IL 1050/57 tend 1157/5s

than. before the War gains in Af..ica and theNear East have been offset by losses in percaput output in the Far East and Latin Amer-lea. The .second is that virtually the wholeincrease in world per caput production resultsfrom the increased output of North Americaand. 'Western 14:ur01)e, for the contributions ofthe Neai. East and Africa are still small inrelation to total world agricultural production.The predominant b ha re of North America andWestern Europe in the increase in. world percaput output would probably remain true ifEastern 14,.lrirope, the U.8.8.1.1., and MainlandChina were included in the estimates, butavailable data for these countries are too in-complete for reliable per caput estimates.

The above considerations do not mean thatthere has been no improvement since theprewar period in the available:, food supply inthe less developed regions of the wortd, rela-tivo to their populations. They do imiau.however, that any improvement has bee11 limit-ed, it has in fact largely resulted not from increased per eaput production, but from changesin the pattern of world trade in foodstuffs.

li

inp trticular the increased. food imports, andsmaller food exports of the Less developed re-gions of the world, compared with the prewarperiod_ These changes are discussed later inthe section on the volume of world trade inagricultural products.

The fact that oven today both per caputagricultura.i and food production in the lessdeveloped -regions appear to be little, if at all.greater titan before the war once more under-lines the continuing importance) of maintainingand increasing efforts towards a balanced andeconomic development of their agricultures.The setback in these regions during the willwas greater than in the more developed regionsas a whole (where losses in Europe and Oceaniaxvore offset by striking gains in NOrtil Anieriea),While OW 11101e rapid growth of population inthe loss developed regions necessitates a rela-tively faster growth or production if their gen-orally meager levels of consumption. are to beraised.

To end this review of production trends,attention may be drawn to two charts, whichillustrate some nta ill developments in worldagricultural production 8inCle I 934-38. The first

1934/38 1946/47 1948/49 1950/51 1952/53 1954/55 1956/57avert,ge

13=010Siamous Economically more developed regions (Western Europe, North America, Oceania).

Economicaliy less developee regions (Lath- Arsusrita, Far East, Near East, Africa)

TABLE II-3. INDEX NuMBERS OF VOLUME OF TOTAL AND PER CAPUT FOOD PRODUCTION

,Inctuding e31-Ainates for Eastora Europe, U.S.S.R., and Alaniland. china.

(Figure II-2) shows the growth, of world produc-tion and its distribution between the mainregions or groups of regions. It shows, clearlythe rise in production in North America dur-

FIGURE 11-2. Growth of World Agricultural

120

100

80

60

40

20

o

1934-38average

1946/47 1918/49 1950/51

12

World Agricultural Production, 1948/49-1952/53 Average 100

tire war, the rapid recovery in WesternEurope and Oceania from the, damage or neg-lect of tire wat years, and the flattening offof production in these three regions since 1952/53

Production and Share of Different Regions

1952/53 1954/55 1956/57 1957/58

41Worid

Eastern Europe, U.S.S.R., andMainland China (rough esti-mate)

Latin America, Fat- East, NearEast, and Africa

Western Europe and Oceania

North America

REGIoxAverage1934-38

V;

i 9.15

1919/50

A \repo goI 952/53

and1953/54

1956/57 1857/58(prelim.)

Average1934-38

Average1918/ 49

and1949/50

Average1952/53

and1953/54:

1956/57 1957/58(prelim.)

rage 948149 - 1952153 100

Western Europe 93 91 111 110 117 102 92 108 111 111

North America 71 98 108 115 112 85 100 103 103 90neeania 90 101 106 107 103 :108 106 100 93 87

Three above regions . . 05 109 115 114 93 97 106 107 105

Latin America 79 95 107 122 121 106 98 100 106 103r East (exel. China) . . 96 99 100 11.9 118 116 101 104 109 106

1Near East 84 M. 115 128 132 ] 102 94 108 112 113

Afrie 80 94 110 121 118 07 97 105 109 104

Four above regions . . . 88 06 109 121 121 108 100 105 100 106

All above regions 84 90 109 118 117 101 98 105 107 105World' 96 108 119 119 105 95 104 108 106

Total food prod Um' Per caput food production

120

FIGURE 11-3. Growth of Agricultural Production and Share of Main Commodity Groups

Average Total Agricultural Output 1948/49-1952/53 = 100

A. Economically More Developed Regions

ve rag e

+I Total agricultural productionRaw materials for industryand tobacco

Total food production

Livestock products for humanfood

Other food crops

Cereals and roots (excludingquantities used for feed andseed)

Total agricultural productionRaw materials for industry

Coffee, tea, tobacco.4 Total food production

Livestock products for humanfood

Other food crops

Cereals and roots (excludingquantities used for feed andseed)

1934-38 1946/47 1948/49 1950/51 1957/53 1954/55 1956/57 1957/58average

B. Economically Less Developed Regions

1934-38 1946/47 19/8/49 1950/51 1952/53 1954/55 1956/57 957/58

under the influence of mounting surpluses.shows vslo the continuing growth of prod.uctionin both the less developed regions of the world,and in the Communist groups of countries,where the demand for agricultural products isstill rapidly expanding, and the problems ofagricultural surpluses have not yet arisen toany significant extent, at least so far as theirdomestic markets are concerned. At presentthe economically more developed regions, theless developed regions, and the Com.munistgroups of countries, respectively, are each re-sponsible for roughly one third of the totalvolume of world agricultural production.

The second chart (Figure II-3) shows thechanging composition of production in the moreand the less developed regions, respectively, bybroad groups of commodities. The increasesince the prewar period in the net output ofbasic foods (cereals and roots) in the moredeveloped regions does not, of course, refie6tany increase in the consumption of these foods,but rather th.eir lessened dependence on importsfrom other regions, the increase in their exportsand in some cases also in the level of stocks.Since 1948/49, however, it is evident that themain expansion in the, more developed regionshas been in livestock products, which in anycase account for by far the largest part uftheir output, though latterly even this hastended to flatten out.

The much smaller share of livestock productsin the total output of the less developed regionsis evident from Figure II-3(b). In these regionsthe net output of cereals and roots for humanfood appears to have increased rather slowlysince 1954, though these commodities accountfor about one third of the total output. Thema,in expansion in recent years appears to have -

been in "other crops," including, e.g., sugar,oilseeds and fibers, both for domestic use andexport. To some extent livestock productionhas also expanded as the demand for livestockproducts increases with rising incomes. Thedata for these regions are of course subje,ctto a wider margin of error than those for theeconomically more advanced countries.

Growth of Production in IndividualCountries

While indices for regions and groups of re-gions are useful to obtain an overall view ofdevelopments or to reveal broad trends, theyinevitably conceal very large differences be-

14

tween individual countries. Even in regionswhere on the average production has grownrapidly some countries lag behind, e.g., fortechnical reasons, for lack of investment fundsor of markets, or because of war or civil dis-turbances. Other countries have been able tosurpass considerably the average rate of prog-ress. As an indication of the magnitude ofthe variations from country to country, thepercentage growth of production in selectedcountries in each region (generally those forwhich the basic data are most complete) isset out in Table 11-4. It may be added thatthe wide differences between countries reveal-ed in this table do not impair the validity ofthe analyses in the earlier paragraphs, whichare based on the aggregate production in eachregion or group of regions, and iin.)t on averagesfor individual countries.

Fish,eries Products

The stea,dy postwar expansion of the worldcatch of fish and shellfish, which reached arecord level of about 29 million tons in 1956,also a,ppears to have been checked in 1957,but final figures when available are likely tobe about the same as in 1956. There wereless abundant supplies of fish in some fisheries,notably the Norwegian winter herring fisheries,and economic factors, including rising costs,lower prices for some fishery products, andstiffer competition from fish-exporting coun-tries, also contributed. The decreases were,however, offset by an increase in the Japanesecatch..

Forest Products

In 1956 there were already indications thatthe, rapid postwar growth in the demand forforest products was slowing clown, and withit their production. This tendency became stillmore pronounced in 1957, though in some re-gions it developed only in the latter part ofthe year. At the same time IleW earlier plan-ned capacity, particularly for pulp and paperproduction, was put into operation. This fur-ther increased the imbalance between currentdemand and potential supplies. A substantialover-capacity in world forest industries thusemerged in 1957. The decline of some 30 mil-lion cubic meters in the estimated world pro-duction of roundwood in 1957 compared with1956, though only about 2 percent of the totaloutput, was the largest in any year since, the

Western, Europe (Regional average 16 perce,nt)

Sweden 5% (6%)Switzerland 4% (20%)United Kingdom . . 6% (59%)Norway 6% (26%)Spain 8% (1%)

North America (Regional average 12 percent)

United States 11% (48%) I Canada 14% (65%)

Oceania (Regional average 15 percent)

I New Zealand . . 11% (31%)I Australia 15% (28%)

Latin AmericaCubaColombia

(Regional average 18 percent)

Far East (Regional average 17

--I% (52%)9% (84%)

percent)

Malaya 1% (42%)Burma 2% (16%)South Korea 3% ( 6%)Pakistan 4% (13%)Thailand 6% (85%)

Den markNetherlandsFinlandIrelan.dFrancePorttwal

ChileUruguayi3razilArgentinaPeru

11% (35%)11% (40%)16% (37%)17% (13%)18% (23%)18% (34%)

II% (36%)14% (38%)16% (48%)18% (21%)19% (59%)

Near East (Regional average 24 percent)Egypt 19% (34%)

I Turkey 21% (70%)

Africa (Regional average 21 percent)

war, and reflected the general weakening indemand for new raw material supplies by forestindustries.

The main impact was felt in. North Americawhere the recession led to a reduced outputof nearly all forest products in 1957, exce,ptnewsprint, compared with the previous year,the decline ranging from some 3 percent forwoodpulp to about 10 percent for plywood andsawn SOftWOOd and nearly 20 percent for sawn

Ceylon 11% (58%)India 17% (21%)Taiwan 18% (30%)

Now, : Figures in parentheses show increases from 1931-38 to 1955/56-1950/57.1Former French Zone.

15

Over 20 percent

Germany, Western 21% (18%)Yugoslavia .

Italy22% (11%)24% (37%)

Belgium-Luxembourg

-

29% (55%)Austria' 32% (16%)Greece 39% (40%)

Mexico 41% (105%)

Indonesia . . 22% (19%)Philippines 24% (46%)japan 31% (27%)

Algeria 20% (15%)Union of S. Africa 25% (64%)

hardwood. Production was more sustained :inEurope, and although the output of sawn soft-wood :fell by some 5 percent, the productionof other commodities, including wood pulp,plywood, and sa.wn hardwood increased slightly.Preliminary estimates in.dicate that the outputof most forest products also increased slightlyin the U.S.S.R., the Far East, and Africa, butdeclined slightly in Latin America and Oceania(see Annex Tables).

TABLE II-4. PERCENTAGE INCREASE IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES1948/49-1952/53 TO 1955/56-1956/57

(based. on FAO indices of agricultural production.)

Tunisia 13% (20%)Madagascar 14% (30%)Morocco' . . 16% (44%)

Under 10 rercent 11-20 percent

Agricultural Production in 1957/58 andShort-Term Prospects

In the sections Nvhich :follow brief commentsare given on agricultural production in ..1957/58in each region of the \V() Id and on prospects:for 1958/59 so ar as the limited informationat present available permits. Short notes arealso included on the production a forest prod-ucts and fisheries. Statistics of the productiono the main agricultural, forestry, and fisheriesproducts in each region 'will be foand in theAnnex Tables.

N odic ilmerien. As mentioned earlier, themain 'factors contributing to the reduced levelof production in 1957/58 Were the poor cerealharvests in the :Prairie Provinces, where droughtduring the groNving season was followed bypersistent rains at the time of harvest ; a reduc-ed production of cotton and tobacco in theUnited States, largely as a result of the SoilBank operations, and a decline of so me 4 per-cent in tneat production (excluding poultry meat)in 1957, compared with 1956. Almost haif thedecline in the 'United States meat output oc-curred in the last quarter of the year, andresulted from a simultaneous downturn in thehog cycle and the cattle cycle. The main ef-fect was on the production of pork, but a recordfeed supply in 1057/58 and a favorable hog/feedprice ratio in the latter part of 1957 are :reflect-ed in expanded 'farrowing plans for the springpig crop in 1958. After several years of risingcattle numbers a decline set in during 1956/57and at the beginning of 1958 there res some:3 million (3 percent) less than at the begin-ning of 1956. The effect of the Soil .Bank andother measu res to bring current production moreclosely into line with effective demand arereviewed in the section on agricultural policies.

The inost recent forecast available (mid-June)puts the 'wheat crop in 1958 in the UnitedStates at some 34.5 million metric tons orabout 8.5 million :more than in 1957, owingto an increase of 19 percent in the area underwinter wheat and favorable weather during thewinter. The prospective area under wheat inCanada in 1958 .is about 2 percent less thanlast year, the smallest since the wartime reduc-tion program in 1943, but with favorableweather a normal crop may be expected. Afurther increase in stocks of wheat in NorthAmerica during 1958/59 is, therefore, likely.

For coarse grains, increased ateas under bothoats and barley are in prospect in Canada, but

16

in the 'United States an increase in the expect-ed area under maize is considerably exceededby a decline in the prospective area under bar-ley, oats, and sorghums. Record plantings ofsoybeans are expected, and some increase inthe area under rice, but the tobacco acreagewill again be slightly lower. In the UnitedStates red meat production may decline some-what in 1958, but poultry meat production willcontinue to expand, and total output may beslightly above 1957. In Canada, red meatproduction is likely to increase. In both coun-tries, milk production is likely to expand some-what and again to exceed commercial demand.

W estern Europe. :Harvests in 1957 were goodin most countries of Western Europe, with themain exception of fruit and \vine. Total grainproduction in northwestern Europe was onlyslightly above the preceding year, but the shareof wheat 'N11.-LS much :larger than in 1956, whenthe crop was reduced by spring frost. Onlyin the three northern cauntries (Finland, Nor-way, and Swe(len), where persistent heavy rainsdamaged time crop, was Rroduction much lessthan in 1956. The shift from oats to barleycot:Ahmed in most countries. In Southern Eu-rope, grain production WaS considerably higher,except in Italy. Yugoslavia had a record crop,the maize crop being the highest since 1938,when the arca was larger. As a result ofprevious high production and low p1-ices inmany countries, the potato area was smallerthan in the preceding year, and productionwas :further reduced by lower yields. Sugarbeets showed high yields in many ,countries,notably Western Germany where productionwas 20 percent above the 1951-55 average and16 percent above the 1956 level, in spite ofa somewhat smaller crop area. In. Italy, how-ever, the crop tu-ea and output were greatly:reduced following the 1956 surplus.

Although prices remained low, pig meatproduction continued to increase in many coun-tries because of the earlier expansion in pignumbers. Dentnark and the Netherlands, thetwo main exporting countries, have reducedthe number of breeding sows in anticipationof marketing difficulties, but production remain-ed high in the first part of 1958. Milk produc-tion also continued to rise in nearly ati coun-tries, and. 'in some the quantities sold off farmsrose even more quickly, sometimes because of'delivery subsidies. As liquid milk consump-tion has generally remained stationary or tend-

ed to decline, increased quantities of milk wereavailable for butter and cheese production. Inthe United Kingdom production of butter atolcheese reached a record level in 1957, whilein Western Germany butter production in No-vember, December, and January 1957/58 Nvas14, 23, and 29 percent gro- ater than in th.esame months of the previous year.

Eastern Europe. Harvests in 1957 were alsogood in most countries of Eastern Europe. Thecereal crop W3S the heaviest since the war,exceeding the low crop of 1956 by 8.1 milliontons (about 20 percent). Good weather andthe :increased incentives offered to farmers,both contributed to this result. Only in Czecho-slovakia (for the second year in succession)and Eastern Germany were the grain cropsless than good, and both countries have becomeheavily dependent on grain imports.

hogar beet yields were particularly high in1.057, ranging from one quarter (Bulgaria, Hun-gary, Poland) to one hall (Albania, Czecho-slovakia, an(1 Romania) more than in 1956.Eastern Germany wa,s the only exception, withyields little better than the average of theprevious five years. The potato crop WaS

rather lower than in 1956 in Czechoslovakia andPoland, but elsewhere appears to have beengood.

Milk output rose, notably in Poland and Bul-garia (some I() percent) and Eastern Germany(about 7 percent). Marketings of meat, in-cluding pork, were also higher, despite some-what limited supplies of feed grains from the1956 harvest. Except in Hungary, where re-covery from the setback in late 1956 is notyet complete, pi.g numbers are rising«Tuicklyin. Easte,srn ',Europe. Egg production, is also onthe increase. The heavy crops of coarse grainsand l'odder should provide the basis of a fur-ther expansion of livestock production in 1958.In Romania, however, where the number ofanimals was greatly reduced in 1956/57, therebuilding of herds will take some time.

.S ..R. Cereal production in 1957 wassome 20 percent lower than the record .h.arvestof 1956, wheat production falling by about 14percent and maize production by no less than40 percent. Drought in th.e newly opened-up:regions of Kazakhstan and Siberia, as well asin the Urals and the Volga 'region, was theprincipal factor. Good crops were harvestedin the traditional cereal areas of the Ukraineand the Kuban. The fall in deliveries to the

17

State., amounting to 37 million tons against54 millions in 1956, was considerably greaterthan the fall in production.

There was a sharp rise in the output of sugarbeet, mainly in the Ukraine, where the weather:was -favorable and the crop amen had been great-ly extended. The crop oh 39 million tons was20 percent more than in 1956 and 50 percentabove the 1.952-56 average. There was littlechange in cotton production. It WaS recentlyannounced that in coming years the textileindustry of the U.S.S.R. will be essentiallydeveloped through the production of syntheticfibers.

The large supply of feed grains from therecord 1956 .harvest, and the emphasis nowbeing placed on livestock production, werereflected in ami 8 percent increase in the outputof eggs and 12 percent of miik in 1957 compar-ed with 1956. Meat production is not yetknown, but State procurement is said to have:increased by 12 percent. The whole increaseconsisted of pork, and slaughterings of youngcattle were reduced to provide heavier animalsfor the coming year.

Oceania. Australia had a bad year becauseof droughts in the etrly part of the season,though rain early in 1958 prevented a drasticreduction in output. This was the first breakin the run of good seasons since the war. Ce-reals, milk, and W001. Were the products whichsuffered most. Output of cereals fell by aboutone third, and of wool and milk by about 7percent. Production of sugar, tobacco, fruit,and eggs was at or above the previous season's

Slaughterings :in the first part of theseason rose beca,use of the drought, but Weresharply reduced later leaving estimated meatproduction about the same as the year before.Preliminary estimates for New Zealand, :whereCOrlditiallS Were favorable, indicate that theoutput of milk increased by 71A percent andof wool by 1 percent ; meat production mayalso be slightly higher.

Latin ,4merica. Total agricultural productionrose only fractionally and food production fellslightly, -which in view of the rapid growth ofpopulation in the :region meant a substantialfall in per caput production. Cereal, productionfell by some 5 percent, a rise of 6 percent inmaize being outweighed by a heavy fail in theoutput of wheat. Most other food crops show-ed little change. Non-food crops did better,coffee production rising by nearly 20 percent,

with smaller increases for cotton and tobacco.:Livestock production as a whole was ratherstable. Th ere va s a small decline in the out-put of beef and mutton and a small increasein that of pork, milk, eggs, and wool.

In Argentina, area and output of wheat,barley, ye, and oats was reduced though therewore good crops of maize and oilseeds. Cattlenumbers fell :from 47 to 44 millions because ofa higher rate of slaughtering in 1956 and sometendency to plow pasture for the productionof flax, sunflower, and other crops, for whichprices are 110W more attracti ve, but wool out-put increased by 5 percent. In Uruguay too,there has been some shrinkage in pasto re andeattle numbers. rrhe woo[ clip, however, at90,000 tons, was 5 percent higher than theyear before. Brazil had a good year, with anincrease of nearly 30 percent in coffee produc-tion, and smaller gains fui camo, sugar, a,ndwheat. Crop production in Chile showed tittlechange, while production in Peru fell somewhatbeeause of drought and pests, notably for cot-ton and sugar. After some years of droughtin the highlands, prospects for 1958/59 are :morefavorable. Drought also reduced crops of maize,beaus, barley, and cotton in Colombia, buth ard ly affected the output of coffee. Produc-tion in Venezuela continued to rise. In spiteof political unrest in Cuba, tobacco productionrose by 12 percent and rice by 20 percent giv-ing the largest crop for many years. The sugarcrop is also good, but the government is attempt-ing to restrict production. Mexico had a goodseason in 1957/58, although overall output wasrather lower than the exceptional crops of theprevious year. Irrigated crops like NS'lleat andcotton showed l'Clliarkable increases (17 and 12percent, respectively) and sugar reached a re-cord output of over 1 million tons, but thisdid not fully offset the effects of drought onnon-irrigated crops such as maize and drybeans, and also to some extent on :fruits andvegetables.

For Ea8t. Agricultural production as a wholewas maintained in 1957/58 at the high levelof time previous year. There was a significantt.-eduction. in. the production of rice arid to alesser extent of barley, maize, millets and sor-ghums, offset by an. increase in Wheat andother food crops, and in industrial crops. -Pro-visional estimates put the fall both in riceproduction and in cereal production as a wholeat some 3 to 4 million tons (about 3 percent).

18

The countries AVOrSt hit were India, Burma,Thailand, Ceylon, and Cambodia. A poor cropin India, coinciding with an increased demand.,made it necessary to restrict movementsof grains, resunie procurement and increaseimports. -In Pakistan, :food shortages W(1110

1.;eported in some 1110118. japan, however,harvested the second largest rice crop onrecord.

There has been a considerable increase insugar production in the 1.;egion, and the gradualexpansiout of pulse and oilseed prodaction con-tinued. Root crops were higher than last year,though below t.h.e record level of 1955. Teaproduction 1..eached a postwar :record in 1957/58owin.g to a :favorable year in Ceylon and smallerincreases in other producing countries exceptPakista,n. Avh.ere drought datnaged part of thecrop.

In Mainland China it is stated that the tar-gets of the first five-year plan from 1952 to1957 have been subst.,anjally reached. On theagricultural side, grain production over theperiod is said to have risen :from 154.5 to185 million tons (some 20 percent), and cottonproduction from 1,305,000 to 1,640,000 tons(about 25 percent). A steady increase of othercrops was also reported, while th..e auca underirrigation 1:.ose by 60 percent to 37.3 millionhectares. Proposals for the second five-yearplan are discussed in the section out agricul-tural policies.

Near East. The continued expansion of pro-duction in 1.957/58 was 'based essentially outgrains. Inilses, and llbers ; other crops anal live-stock production showed either tittle changeor a decline. Grain, the main crop of theregion, t;eached the record output of 37 mil-lion tons, 1.1 percent more than in 1956. Over14 million tons \11C11.0 harvested in Turkey, sur-passing the 1953 record, and in Iraq and Syriaproduction was stun° 30 percent higher thanin 1956, itself a very good year. Smaller in-creases were recorded in -.Egypt and Israel,while in Iran and Jordan crops, thoughabove average, were somewhat smaller than1956.

The regional production of cotton at 860,000tons was some 5 percent higher than the yearbefore thanks to increases of nearly 20 percentin both :Egypt and Syria, partly offset, how-ever, by a smaller crop in 1.'urkey and a declineof nearly 40 percent in the Sudan. Exceptfor citrus in Egypt and grapes in Syria, 1957/58

WaS a bad year for fruit. The production of220,000 tons of dates in Iraq was 20 percentless than in 1956 and 50 percent less than in1955, while the crop in Iran at 105,000 tonswas nearly 25 percent smaller than Last year.

Prospects for 1958/59 production of majorcrops are unfavorable in Mally countries, espe-cially in the "Fertile Crescent." Wheat andparticularly barley crops are reportedly reduc-ed by almost one third because of a ch..), winterin Iraq, Jordan, and Syria and also in Cyprus,Israel, and Libya. 'Range pasture is also af-fected and export bans on cereals and livestockhave been imposed in Syria ami 'Iraq. Thelack of winter rain may also reduce under-ground water and .hence the acreage and outputof summer crops, especially vegetables. In ad-dition, most countries were heavily infested bylocusts, including Tifrkey. A lower rice acreageis reported in Egypt and a small cotton cropin the Sudan.

..4/rico. Agricultural production in Africa ap-to to have declined in 1957/58 from the high

level reached in the previous season. Althoughthe growth of production has recently tendedto slow down in the large part of the regionthat lies south of the Sahara, there was a furthersmall increase in production imì this arca in1957/58. But this was much_ more thtin offsetby substantial reductions in North Africa.The severe drought in Morocco in the previouswinter resulted in falls of 40 percent in wheatand as much as 70 percent in barley produc-tion from the 1956/57 levels. Algeria WM altiOaffected by drought, barley production declin-ing by 40 :percent.. These pool' cereal IAtirvestscoincided with small olive crops, :while in Tu-nisia, where cereal production increased, theolive oil output Wati halved and WaS the chieffactor in the overall decline in agriculturalproduction. J) eme W ati , oui the other hand, afurther substantial rise in the North Africanproducttion of citrus fruit.

South of the Sahara, cacao production, af-fected by bad weather in Ghana, Nigeria, and theIvory Coast, fell nearly 25 percent from the recordof the previous season and there were smallerreductions in oil palm products. Rice produc-tion again rose sharply, with a record harvest inMadagascar, while the production of groundnutsreached :new record levels in both French. WestAfrica and Nigeria. In time Union of SouthAfrica naize output fell slightly, but the steadyexpansion of most other commodities continued.

19

THE VOLUME OF INTERNATIONALTRADE IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

The rise in Jlie volume of Nvorld trade inagricultural products which began :in 1955 afterseveral years of stability at about the prewarlevel, continued in 1957 but at a slower ratethan in either of the two preceding )7ears.Mot.eorer, the index of :WOUld agricultu:ral it:a-l:torts rose :more than the corres:ponding indexof exports, :reflecting time arrival. in, early 1957of goods shipped in the tatter part of 1956.Most main groups of agricultural products sh.ar-ed in the increase in 1 957, but the 'largest riseoccurred Jili the raw materials group, :mainlybecause of surplus disposal operations for cotton.Overall trade in farest products, not includedin the general :index for agricultural products,showed :no change from 1 956 and I.emainedsome:what below th.e peak level of L955. Asthroughout ti-te postwar period, the :volume oftrade in agricultural products increased a gooddeal more slowly than the :volume of worldtrade as a whole (Table :L I-5).

Exports of agricultural products from LatinAmerica declined, and there \ aS no change inthe general level of :African exports, but withthese exceptions all :regions of the world export-ed more, agricultural products than in 1956(Table II-6). As imi the two previous years,however, by far the largest part of the inciensein world trade in 1957 resulted from :largerNorth. .American exports, dime mainly to surplusdisposal opcwathms. Exports of food and :feed-ingstuffs from North. America Were itu factrather smaller than. in 1956. The Western,Eut..opean de un for cereals :receded frtini the

level. of 1950. :when European crops Werebelow average; France, which in 1956/57 bcicamee xcepti ona Hy a wheat- i inpo rting co u Tory, is

likely to export over 2 million tons in 1957/58.l'here was also so me ftill in North. Americanexports of livestock products, though. these Werepartly offset by larger exports of oils and fats.But the rise in cotton exports, already mention-ed, more than outweighed the smaller ship-ments of foodstuffs from North America. Theheavy ball in Latin American exports occurredin coffee and textile fibers, and included wool andespecially cotton ; larger exports of sugar, oilsand fats, fruit, and meat, however, led to some-what increased shipments of food as a whille,,despite sonic decline in. cereals.

On the import side, some 60 percent of theincrease in world trade was accounted for by

TABLE II-5. INDic,Es OF THE VOLUME OF WORLD TRA.DE IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 1 BYMAIN COMMODITY GROUPS

COMMODITY 1931-38average

larger imports hito Western Europe of bever-ages and raw material ; imports of foodstuffswere slightly smaller than in 1956. Anoth.er30 percent represented increased imports intothe Far East of all main groups of products,but especially cereals (which .reached an ail-timerecord in spite of the good rice crops harvest-ed in late 1956), livestock products, and cotton.All other regions, however, with the exceptionof North America, increased their agriculturalimports.

Developments in 1957 thus reflected the twodominant factors .influencing present shifts inthe pattern of world trade in agricultural prod-ucts : the surplus situation in the more in-dustrialized countries, and the decline in netexports from the less developed regions as their0 MI requirements absorb more and more oftheir 0 production. nese underlying trendsare easily seen in the lower part of Table 11-6,showing the net trade position of e.ach region.

The situation in the less developed regionshas been considered in earlier issues of TheState of Food and Agriculture and only a briefresumé need be given to bring out the magni-tude of postwar developments. Under the pres-sure of rapidly growing requirements, o.utrun-ning the growth of produetion, gross food exportsof the less developed regions of the world havedeclined, and in addition considerable imports

1918-52average

20

Indices: 1952-53 ---- 100

1957(prelim.)

'Average of indices of world imports and worl I exports (excluding intra-trade within Co nmunist g oup of co mtries.qndex of world exports adjusted to 1953 53 base: comparable League of Nations es "mates included for 1931-38. -- 'Not includedin general agricultural index.

of foodstuffs into Asia and La,tin America havedeveloped from North. America and Australia.These consist primarily, but by no means ex-clusively, of cereals. Both the Far East andthe Near East, formerly substantial net export-ers, have had large net imports of foodstuffsin nearly every year since the war. Net foodexports from Latin America llave generallyranged from 20 to 40 percent below the prewaraverage. Africa has been aa exception, andin recent years net food exports from thatregion have been some 20 to 30 percent higherthan before the .war. Nevertheless, net exportsof food and feedingstuffs from the less develop-ed .regions of the world as a whole to the in-dustrialized countries had shrunk by 1956 and1957 to little more than one third of theirpie war volu me.

Net exports of non-food products, includingboth beverages (e.g., coffee) and fibers and otherraw materials, have been maintained, and illsome cases expanded. Their production ha,sincreased, and domestic consumption of thesecommodities has not yet begun to expand atthe rate that the requirements of the lessdeveloped .regions for foodstuffs has expanded.Non-food products thus account for an increas-ingly important share of the total agriculturalexports and foreign exchange earnings of theless developed regions. As a result, net agri-

rOTAL WORLD TRADE (agricultural andnon-agricultural)2 70 86 103 108 118 128 .134

Agricultural products 98 95 102 101 107 116 119

Foods and feedingstuffs 100 93 102 102 109 120 123

Beverages and tobacco 86.5 95 104 99 107 114 114

Agricultural raw materials 105 97.5 102 101 103 110 115

Forest products3 92 91 102 117 131 128 128

Cereals 101 93 97 92 96 118 114

Sugar 79 89 108 101 108 109 115

Oilseeds and vegetable oils 165 98 103 123 130 141 147

Fruit, fresh and dried 89 83 106 108 114 ' 106 119

Livestock products 96 94 104 106 115 123 125

1953 1951 1955 1950

TABLE II-6. REGIONAL IINDIOES OF THE VOLUME OF GROSS AND NET TRA.DE IN AGRICULTURAL, PRODUCTS

'Nut importer. 'Net ex-porter.

cultural exports of all kinds from these regionshave fallen by only 10 to 20 percent from theprewar volume, compared with the fall of some60 percent for foodstuffs alone.

Among the agriculturally more advanced re-gions, Oceania has substantially expanded itsnet exports in the same .period, a large shareof the increase going to Asian countries ratherthan to the traditional iinporters in WesternEurope. But the major expansion of exports

21

has, of course, come in North America, atfirst in response to wartime and postwar short-ages, and later under the pressure of its domesticsurpluses. Recent developments in surplus dis-posal are discussed more fully below. In theevent, the NOlth American region, which beforethe war Wati a small net importer of foodstuffsand a large, net importer of agricultural productsas a whole, has been a consistent net exporterof foodstuffs, and in 1956 and 1957 became also

REGlos 1934-38average

1948-52average 1983 1 984 1.955 1959 1057

(pi-cilio.)

Indias: 1951-53 -- 100

G7'088 Exports (All agricultural products)

Western EuropeNorth Ame ricaOceaniaLatin AmericaFar East (excl.. China).Near :EastAfrica

1066179

104156

8177

81.

10197

100978691

10393

103109100115102

1149094

103102106114

12591

105.1.09

111.102122

1241251.11.

116109100129

127135ne109112109129

G.10S8 hnports (All agriczdtural products)

Western Europe 114 95 104 106 112 121 124North America 81 100 99 86 93 96 95Oceania 67 99 104 122 128 11.8 128Latin America 58 91 102 104 101 97 105Far East (excl. China) 103 83 99 99 100 119 126Near East 52 99 99 95 111 122 132Africa 64 86 103 107 118 129 132

Net Exports (All agricultural products)North America (`) (') (1) (1) (1) 375 558Oceania 80 97 102 91. 103 Ill 115Latin America 114 102 III 103 111 120 110Far East (excl. China) 514 190 107 119 179 55 17Near East 108 79 130 116 95 79 SSAfrica SI 92 102 116 123 128 128

Net Imports (All agricultural products)

Western Europe 116 99 105 103 108 119 124North America 392 83 200 38 125 (2) (2)

Net Exports (Food and feedingstufis)

North America (1) 95 88 69 91 148 .140Oceania 87 94 107 94 106 117 110Latin America 183 120 .1. IS 129 132 140 148Far East (excl. China) 158 (1) (1 ) (1) (i ) (1)

(1)Near East 117 (1) (1) 117 (1) (1)(1)

Africa, 95 95 107 139 129 132 116

Net Imports (Food and feedingstulls)

Western Europe 128 106 102 96 104 129 123North America 15 (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2)Far East (excl. China) (2) 57 99 82 53 98 112Near East (2) 100 50 (2) 133 150 217

a net exporter of agricultural products as awhole (in terms uf volume weighted. at 1952-53prices).

In 1.956 and 1957 Western lEurope thus be-came for the first time the sole net-importingregion for agricultural products, th.ough forfoodstuffs alone the Far East and the NearEast are also net importers. Nevertheless, :forthe products which Western Europe itself pro-

FIGURE 11-4. Total Supplies of Selected Commodities in Western European Countries, ShowingProportion Covered by Domestic Production, by Intra-European Trade, and by Imports from Outside

the Region, 1934-38 Average and 1953/54-1955/56 Average

Total Supply, Prewar Average 100

Sugar

Cheese

Eggs

Fats and oils (excl.butter)

Bread grains

Coarse grains

Meat

Butter

Prewar average1953/54-1955/56

Prewar average1953/54-1955/56

Prewar average1953/54-1955/56

Prewar average1953/54-1955/56

Prewar average1953/54-1955/56

Prewar average1953/54-1955/56

Prewar average1953/54-1955/56

Prewar average1953/54-1955/56

4NOMMENECO

Imports from outside

otra-regional trade

duees the pressure of its own expanding pro-duction, stimulated by technical improvementsand by price and income supports, incre,asessteadily against a more slowly r.ising ceiling ofrequirements.

Long-term developments in the Western lEu-ropean market finor agricultural products areshown in Figure 11-4 which compares averagemutual supplies in 1934-38 and 1953/54 to

SOURCE : OEEC, Statistical Summary of Agricultural Production and Food Consumption in OEEC Countries. Paris, December 1957.

Production for domestic consumption

22

1955/56. For some commodities, no ably sugar,cheese, and eggs, there has been a substantialincrease in total consumption. :But in nearlyevery case the increased requirements havebeen met by a larger production 'within thecountry itself, or 'within the Western Europeanregion. Thus domestic production, and to alesser extent intra-Europea,n trade, llave gener-ally increased. For none of the commoditiesincluded in the chart has there been any ex-pansion in the volume of imports from outsidethe region, with the one exception of oils andfats.

The gro.wing pressure of surplus supplies inWestern Europe is most evident in the case oflivestock products. Thus among the main fea-tures of' the intra-European market in livestockproducts in 1957/58 were the growing depen-dence of the European exporting countries onthe West German market for eggs, poultrymeat, cheese, and butter ; the :increasing im-ports of meat, butter, and cheese into iftaly,where the demand for such :foods is risingand the disappearance of the British marketas an important outlet for eggs. Moreover,prices for eggs, bacon, and butter on the Britishmarket fell considerably, in the case of butterdue to increased competition from marginalexporting countries in Europe.1 Exports ofbutter from Sweden, Finland, Ireland, France,Austria, and Norway, which in 1955 and 1956amounted to about 8,000 and 38,000 tons, res-

'In 1957, Finland, Irelan.d, and. Sweden exported49,000 .tons of butter .to the United :Kingdom, ascompared with 11,000 tons in 1956 and 1,000 tonsin 1955.

TABLE II-7. INereEs oF NET TRADE BETWEI N LESS IDEVELOrED REGIONS AS A WHOLEAND MORE INDUSTRIALIZED REGIONS AS A WHOLE

23

pectil ely, increased to about 95,000 tons in1957, and largely offset a 21/, percent declinein butter exports from Denmark, causing atthe sa,me time a 17 percent decline in the valueof the Danish butter export. The total volumeof European butter exports exceeded that ofthe previous vean' by more than 30 percent.Imports into Western Germany (32 pereent),Italy (43 percent)2 Switzerland (11 percent)and the United Kingdom (2 percent) increased.

The overall situation of the less developed'regions of the world as a whole vis-k-vis themore advanced countries, so far as trade inagricuttural products is concerned, is sumo medup in Table 11-7. 011 the one hand this showsthe rapid fall in :net exports of -food from theless developed regions, the irregular growth_ ofnet exports of beverages and tobacco, and thesomewhat fluctuating course of trade in agri-cultural :raw materials. The indices of net im-ports into the more developed regions naturallybring out the obverse of these developments(see also Figure II-5).

There are at present no indications of anysubstantial change in these trends. It seemslikely that the pressure of supplies on themarkets of the more industrial countries willincrease, especially since the initial impact ofsurplus disposal operations may be diminish-ing. The growing demand for foodstuffs in theless developed regions may continue to providesome expansion of outlets for surplus productionin the more advanced regions, though the ab-

'In Ala ch. 1958 Italy, however, stopped all im-ports of butter to permit domestic Markets torecoVer.

.Latin America, Ear East, Near East, inni unica. 'Western Europe, North America, arel Oceania.

COMMODITY193 4 -3 8average

1918-52average 1953 1954 1955 1956

Tipliecs: 1952-53 100

Net Exports of Less .Developed Regions"

All agricultural products 131 1.04 110 108 117 115

Food and feedingstuffsBeverages and tobaccoRaw materials

4408791

1579597

1321041.10

1929599

19410411.1

16911499

Net Imports of More Developed Regions'

All agricultural productsFood and feedin.gstuffsBeverages and tobaccoRaw inaterials

138434

8889

1001409688

109125102113

105148

9896

110127106110

103106111

88

1957relim.)

107155112

84

9910611474

FIGURE II-5(a). Volume of Gross Exports ofAgricultural Products from Less Developed Regions

and Volume of Gross Imports of Foodstuffs

Total Exports 1948-52 Average 100

Gross exports,all agriculturalproducts

Raw materials

Beverages andtobacco

-4 Gross foodexports

Gross foodimports

sorptive capacity of these ne NV markets isheavily circumscribed by their lack of foreignexchange. To the extent that this difficultycan be overcome, however, the rather -wide-spread policy of establishing national reservestocks should, for SOTfle years, provide an ad-ditional source of demand, superhnposed uponthat already provided by rising populations andincomes.

Forest ProductsIn 1957 the volume of world trade in forest

products as a 'whole was maintained at the1956 level. Regional developments, however,showed considerable changes from 1956. InNorth America, exports of roundwood declin-ed by about 10 percent (in 1956 they had risenby close to 7 percent) ; exports of sawnwoodcontinuecl the decline already apparent 41 I 956.Trade in newsprint also showed a small de-crease in 1957 whereas exports of wood pulpslightly increased, largely because of largershipinents from North America to Europe andother overseas markets. In Europe, exports ofroundwood were about maintained, while tradein sawn softwood showed a small rise. INxportsof plywood also picked up somewhat after theheavy decline that had occurred in 1956. As

24

FIGURE II-5(b). Volume of Gross Imports ofAgricultural Products into More Developed Regions

and Volume of Gross Exports of Foodstuffs

Total Imports 1948-52 Average = 100

130

120

110

100 Raw materialsI'90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10 kiM=/

Gross food=,=====/ exportsaml ,lows...=1M11.

Beverages andtobacco

4 Gross foodimports

to pulp and 'paper, exports of wood pulp andnewsprint fell slightly, while exports of otherpapel and board rose by over 8 percent. Ex-ports of most forest products by the SovietUnion to Europe as well as to other regions,notably the Near East and Latin America, alsoincreased.

:In 1957 the volume of 'world trade in forestproducts is likely to show some decline fromthe levels recorded in 1957. Import require-ments of roundwood and sawnwood in NorthAmerica and Europe are clearly smaller thana year earlier. The demand f.'or 'wood pulpand pulp products win, in 1.958, probably bemore affected than in 1957 by the North Ami er-ican recession and the slowing (1011'11 ill Europe'seconomic expansion. The steady postwar ex-pansion of paper and board constunption mighttherefore come to a halt, at least temporarily.Further details are given later in the sectionon the Commodity Outlook.

Agricultural Trade of Eastern Europe andthe U.S.S.R.

The, indices of the volume of agriculturaltrade discussed above take imito account im-ports received from th.e Communist group ofcountries by the rest of the world, and also

1948-52 53 54 55 56 571934-381934-38 1948-52 53 54 55 56 57

exports to the Communist countries fron therest of the world. They do not cover tradebetween the Commutfist cnuntries themselves.Considerably more information_ is ROW becom-ing available of the international trade of thesecountries, notably :for the calendar year ti)56,or the crop year 1956/57, though comparable(1ata for previous years and for 11)57 are gen-erally lacking. Some recent developments aregiven below in considerably greater detail thanfor other countries as the information is stillnot easily found.

In 1956/57 the U.S.S.R. exported some 6.8million tons of cereals, including 3.9 tnil iontons of wheat. Of these quantities some 4.7million tons of cereals (69 percent) and 3.1million tons of wheat (nearly 80 percent) wereshipped to _Eastern Europe. This compareswith exports of only 1 million tons of wheatin 1955/56, and an average of some 600,000 tonsin 1934-38, and for the first time approachesthe average of over 4 million tons in thefive years before the First World War. Theincrease reflects 'both the good cereal harvestin 1956 in the Soviet "Union and the poor har-vest in that year in Eastern Europe. Totalimports of cereals into Eastern European coun-tries in 1956/57 amounted to 5.3 million tons,an increase of rather more than one milliontons over the previous year. Against this therewere exports of 0.7 million tons in 1956/57, com-pared with 0.6 million tons the year before.

Prospects for 1957/58 are different becauseof the good crops harvested in EaS tern :Europe(except Czechoslovakia) and the less satisfac-tory harvest of the Soviet Union. Neverthe-less, stocks accumulated in 1956 .made Tossibleexports against contract from the Soviet Unionof some 3.4 million tons of cereals by the be-ginning of 1958, including 2.9 million tons ofwheat.

Imports of l'ice into Eastern European coun-tries have considerably increased in recentyears. In 1956 the Soviet Union imported some640,000 tons, of which_ some 54,000 tons werere-exported. to "Eastern Germany and 32,000tons to Poland.

In spite of the recent expansion of sugarproduction, the U.S.S.R. has been a net im-porter in each of the last three years. Importsin 1957 amounted to 519,000 tons (excludingany quantities obtained froin Poland andCzechoslovakia), against 244,000 tons in 1956."Exports and re-exports in 1957 are believed tohave approached 200,000 tons, including ship-

25

merits to Finland., Iran, Afghanistan, a,nd China.The main imports came from Cuba, wh.ich sup-plied 344,000 tons in 1957 and 214,000 tonsin 1956. 'Data on sugar exports from "Eastern:Europe are incomplete ; exports from Czecho-slovakia in 1957, at 100,000 tons (exclud-ing sugar exported to the U.S.S..R.) Were slight-ly larger than_ the year before. Exports fromPoland at 98,000 tons increased from 61,000tons in 1956, but 1.etnained below the 1953-55average of 440,000 tons. Hungarian exports ofsugar declined sharply in 1957 to 10,000 tonsin 1957 against 40,000 tons in 1956.

For oilseeds the latest available data relateto 1956, when the "U.S.S.R. imported some180,000 tons of groundnuts, 548,000 tons ofsoybeans, 96,000 tons of vegetable oils, and17,000 tons of technical oils, mainly from Chinaand Eastern Europe. ..Eastern Germany \vasthe main Eastern European importer of butterin recent years (39,000 tons in 1956/57, as wellas 10,00(1 tons of cheese). Etv4tern Germanyalso imported 187,000 tons of eggs in the SaMeyear, mainly from Bulgaria and Poland, against200,000 tons in th.e preceding year. The U.S.S.R.is also increasing i.ts imports of Bulgarian eggswhich in 1956 reached some 103 million eggs.

The -U.S.S.R. imported some 183,000 headof cattle in 1956/57, mainly from Hungary, aswell as 85,000 tons of meat, with exports andre-exports of 24,000 tons. Considerable quan-tities of' meat Were also imported by EasternGermany (107,00(1 tons) and Czechoslovakia(39,000 tons). Data for imports in earlier yearsare incomplete. On the export side, however,:Polish exports of pig meat in 1956/57 at 66,000tons Were some 15 percent higher than time yearbefore, while exports from "Hungary at 18,000tons were about 20 percent less. The U.S.S.R.also imported some 126,000 tons of fish. in 1956;Eastern Germany imported some 137,000 tonsagainst 151,000 tons the year before.

Finally, trade in fruits has developed appre-ciably in recent years. Bulgaria, the largestexporter, disposed of some 86,000 tons of allvarieties in 1956 ; _Hungary in 1955 exportedsome 40,000 tons of apples. The principal im-porters in 1956 were Eastern Germany (74,000tons), and the U.S.S.R. (52,000 tons of apples,20,000 of peaches, 27,000 of grapes, 40,000of tangerines, 24,000 of oranges, and 22,000 oflemons).

The recent expansion of food imports, in-cluding some senuluxury types, imito the U.S.S.R.and "Eastern European countries appears to

reflect the growing demand for consumer goodsand the efforts of the authorities to raise liv-ing standards. It is largely a 110W develop-ment ; imports of fruit imito the U.S.S.R. be-fore the -war, for example, Wer0 almost negli-gible, shipments of citrus fruit averaging sume15,000 tons annually in 1934-38. :Flow far suchfood im.ports are likely to expand it is difficultto judge, though it may be presumed that, asfor most products, the Communist group ofcountries 'will attempt to meet their own re-quirements for products for -which their cli-mates are suitable.

The same trend is also evident for non-foodproducts. Thus in 1956 the U.S.S.R. import-ed 3,300 tons of coffee (600 tons in 1934-38),16,000 tons of tea (18,000 tons in 1934-38),and. 16,000 tons of cocoa (8,000 tons in 1934-38).Figures for intermediate years are generallylac.king. Appreciable quantities of these com-modities Were also imported in 1956 by East-ern Germany, Poland, and Hungary.

A considerable trade in textile fibers has 110W

developed in the area ; in 1956, the -U.S.S.R.exported some 310,000 tons of cotton againstimports of 51,000 tons, while in 1957 the ex-ports were 319,000 tons and the imports 109,000tons. Egypt is the principal supplier to theU.S.S.R., providing 38,000 tons in 1956 and82,000 tons in 1957. In the last two yearsEastern Euro-pean countries have bought morethan 80 percent of Soviet cotton exports ; theirtotal imports of cotton were as follows

TABLE 11-8, IMPORTS 01' COTTON INTO EASTERNEUROPEAN COUNTRIES

1955.

26

In the case of wool, the 'U.S.S.R. imported48,000 tons in 1.956, including 24,000 tons frontChina and Mongolia, and 10,000 tons from" Southeast Asia and the Aliddle East. " Thiscompares with average imports of 28,000 tonsin 1934-38. In addition, some 2,400 tons ofsilk'WOre imported from China and NorthernKorea.

Imports of 'rubber into the 'U.S.S.R. and lEast-ern Europe were .high in 1956, totaling some220,000 tons, but declined sharply to abouthalf that quantity in 1957. In 1958, importsare again rising and for the whole year mayeach some 180,000 tons. As there is a

re-export trade within the group there can be noexact estimate of supplies to each country. Forexample, the U.S.S.R. imported 141,000 tonsin 1956, including 105,000 tons from Malayaand. 19,000 from Indonesia, but some of thesequantities will have been re-exported. Grossimports into :Poland 'were 28,000 tons in 1956anct 31,000 in 1957, while the correspondingfigures for Czechoslovakia WC1'0 33,000 and 38,000tons, respectively.

'In 1957 Soviet exports of forest products, in-cluding shipments to countries outside Europe,showed a general rise, and the volume of sawn-WOOd and plywood exports reached new post-war heights. In early 1958 world import de-mand for most forest products, particularlythose forming the bulk of Soviet exports toWestern Europe), fell off sharply. The U.S.S.R.however, seems Si) far to have maintained itsvohtme of exports at the 1957 level, and pres-ent indications are that exports for the wholeyear may show a further rise rather than a fall.Several factors appear to contribute to this re-sult. The rapid growth of demand for con-sumer goods in the U.S.S..R. has led to risingimport needs, at least temporarily. The de-termination of the Soviet shippers to sell allquantities earmarked for export in 1958 :led tua, rather flexible Soviet price policy, and suces-sive reductions were made in export prices inthe spring of 1958. .At the same time severalleading industrial countries in Western Europeare looking urgently :ro, larger markets in theEast and particularly in the Soviet Union, asother outlets tend to contract. The effortsof the U.S.S.R. to maintain exports of forestproducts, which account for over one third ofSoviet exports to Western Europe, have thusmet with a favorable resp(inse.

CO UNTR

1956 1957

Total FrontT7.5.5.11. Total

PraiaU.S.8.11.

Albania .....Bulgaria 12

Tlwusammd lo 0M

2

11

Czechoslovakia . . 84 44 78 49

Clrermany, Eastern,

Hungary91

40

82

1(27) 38

76

31

Poland 86 63 121 69

Rorna,nia 43 30 29

SPECIAL MEASURES TO EXPANDAGRICULTURAL EXPORTS

There are essentially three ways uf dealingwith real or potential agricultural surpluses: byreducing production of contmodities in excesssupply ; by increasing consumption oil the homemarket ; and by special measures to increasethe volume of exports. :Examples of the firsttwo are discussed in later 8ections dealingwith agricultural policies and with individualcommodities. The folio Avin.g paragraphs brieflyreview .recent developments under the third,and on the -whole the most widespread, method,SU Ilietimes know,n a " surplus disposal. "

The largest and most widely known surplusdisposal operations are of course those of the

ited States, notably under :Public La NV 480it 11 (I the Mutual Security Act. Many 'Euro peancountries have also resorted to direct or indi-rert export subsidies to expand exports of, e.g.,grain, fruits, arid livestock products, often prin-cipally as a means of maintaining do niprice levels. Operations in th.ese two areas areconsidered in tu rn below. But there are otherexamples. Thus, in a nuniber of bilateral tradeagreements, notably .with the countries of theCommunist bloc, subsidies are indirectly in-cluded in the barter terms or in special creditarrangentents. In many countries, especiallyin Latin America, special exchange rates aregranted to encourage exports. Oth.er countriesgive special tax concessions on agricultural andother exports. 17.11c-we .is also the question oftrade .with countries with centrally plannedeconomies -where prices do not necessarilyreflect relative cost relationships; it is not clear-wheth.er or how ,far this trade involves subsidies,aS for example .in recent heavy reduction in

:Kitt prices of .wood from the U.S.S.R.t should be stressed, however, that surplus

disposal operations and direct subsidies on agri-cultural exports are very much less commonin less developed than in more developed coun-tries. Apart from the fact that surpluses occurprimarily in the more developed countries, forreasons discussed elsewhere, this could hardlybe otherwise since the less developed countriesseldom dispose of the financial resources forany extensive program of export subsidies.

United States Operations

It is difficult to build up a comprehensivepicture of -United States surplus disposal opera-

27

tions because of the number uf programs in-volved, and the -fact that operations undereach are reported in varying degrees of detail,e.g., tonnages and countries of destination arenot always reported, and often reported fordifferent periods and in different financial termse.g., at export values, or in torms of cost tuthe Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) orother agencies concerned. Officially the term

rplus disposal " is limited to exports underthe pro visions of special legislation, in particularthe Agricultural Trade'1.).evelopment and As-sistance Act of 1954 (PA,. 480) and under Sec-tion 402 of the Mutual Security Act.

P abric Law 480

Financial resources available under P. L. 480were extended by all amendment tu the la NVn 1957 \\ :

increased Title i authorizations (l'oreigncurrency sales) from 3,000 to 4,000 mil-lion dollars

increased Title authorizations (fa-mine relief) from SU)) to 900 million

The same amendment extended the period ofoperation of Titles I and II from June 1957 toJune 1958, provided th.at up to 25 percent ofthe :foreign currency received und.er Title Iagreements should be made available for :loansto private .firms (largely United States firmsand affiliates) to assist in the development imulexpansion of business in the foreign countryconcerned, and permitted barter transactionswith :Eastern :European cotaltries. .ft also per-mitted donations to the latter countries undersection 416 of the earlier Agricultural Act of1949. 'There are no special financial provisionsfor operations under Title III of P.L. 480, sofar as barter transactions are cunee-une-di, andany tosses appear as losses Oil CCC trans-actions.

At the time of writing a further extension ofP.L. 480 to 'Ilia° 1960 is before Congress, re-commending authorization of 1,500 .million dol-lars under Title I and about 400 million dol-lars under Title II in each of th.c two years ofthis furth.er extension.

Cumulative authorizations and shipments un-de-r 480 from its inception in July 1954 tothe end of 1957 were as follows :

Title PTitle Ir 2Title III

At CCC cost : the equivalent in export market values ofTltle I authorizations and shipments are $2,308.3 and$1,650 million respectively. 2Title I includes 247 mil-lion fitol Title H $47 million Sor freight. 3 At export mar-ket value. -- !Includes shipments under earlier authoriza-tions. The totals indica te only general orders of magni-tude as lit e Title III (b) transactions are eosted on a dif-ferent basis froto the other items.

TABLE 11-9. UNITED STATES AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS UN.DER SPECIAL PROGRAMSYEARS :ENDING 30 ,TUNE 1955, 1956, AND 1957

Percent of total U.S. exportsunder special programs41954/55

55/5656/5757/58

AuthorizationS ShipmentsMillion U.S. dollars

3 343.2 2 492.8390.7 277 . 9

hilton U. N. dollars at export market Va

Foreign currency sales andgrants

1954/5555/5656/5757/58

Barter agreements

1954/5555/5656/5757/58

Dollar loans and credits1954/55

55/5656/5757/58

Total under special programs

1954/5555/5656/5757/58

28

lfutu ,1 Security Act

During the same period July 1954 to DOCCIII-ber 1957 procurement authorizations under theMutual Security Act totaled 1,367 million dol-lars. In the three fiscal years July 1954 toJune 1957, for which illore complete data areavailable, procurement authorizations amount-ed to 1,047 million dollars and actual expendi-tures to 916 million dollars. Of the total ex-penditures, 328 million dollars (36 percent) werefor cotton, 316 million (34 percent) for wheat,78 million (9 percent) for coarse, grains, 64

Tobaccoleaf

Fatsand

offset

81134171

3(5

2

84139173

172427

Dairyprod-ucts

130205176

X

X

X

130205176

616973

Totalinclud-

ingan

other

7371 0561 5321 137

125299401

86

696169

9311 4162 0021. 300

30414232

underP.L.480

*205.697

1153903

125299401

86

*330996

1 554989

*112833

Of which

underunder Bxport-M.S.A. Import

Bank

SolyncEs I [efairtment of Ag^ iculture, /'/te Demand a nit Prier Situation, November 1056 and 1057; Foreign, Ail) iCalturalTrade Digest, June 1958; liS. Department of ounnuuce, Pore i Grants aml Credits, June 1957.

NOTE : 18n shipments at ex tort market values ; X Mutotes less than 0.5 million dollars ; * estimated.t Data on special programs is msed OIL 'reported shipments under Public Law 480, expenditures under the Mutual Security

Act, and disbursements under Ex.1 ort-Inif fort Bank and eel! credits. Because of differences in reporting periods, exports undertito special programs five not stpiely comparable with official export statistics. Data for total agriellffUral exports include esti-mated value oil dona [ions under Section .1[6 of the Agriettfialral .Act of 1916 (Sec. 302, Title HI, l'. L. 480) wIfich are not 'identifiedby name in the official trade reports. and nitral, barley it malt, oats and oatmeal, and grain sorghums. 3Lard,low soybeiins, 1111:41:0(1, flaxseed, gritundnuts find oils expressed therefrom. -- lExcludes °CC export sales and sales undertito International Wheat Agreement, unless exported. mider the special programs.

T-Yell OC VINAXCIN

AND yEARalorOmiflour

(grains'

lObO( e )

Cotton

domestic anddonations'

foreign1 216.0 1 216.0

barter transactions3., 873. 1 4896.

TOTAL' 5 823.0 44 883.3

226 43 4 222 15310 64 45 202 55288 105 132 323 35

98 23 X118 167 X 5139 121 2 127

10 5961.

64

334 60 4 281 15428 231 45 268 55655 226 134 514 :36

67 27 6 41 572 58 72 1568 63 72 46 10

*532352379234

696169

*532352379

696169

*1710

22

lion (7 percent) for oils and fats, and 54 mil-lion (6 percent) :for dairy products.

What the above operations under P.L. 480and the Mutual Security Act mean in relationto total United States agricultural exports isbrought out in T.able II-9, iii which all figureshave been recalculated flt eXpOrt marketvalues. This table, whic)ì includes also creditsfor purchases of cotton by the Export-ImportBank, covers the four fiscal years 1954/55 to1957/58, the figures ifor the last year being'United States forecasts.

T.hus in 1954/55 shipments under thes-e spe-cial programs accounted for 30 percent of all-United States agricultural exports; in the twosubsequent years this proportion 1.:ose to 41 per-cent and 42 percent respectively, but in 1957/58it is expected to fall back to about 32 percent.In 1956/57, the last year Tfor which completeinformation is to be had, some 60 to 70 percentof all shipments of wheat, coarse grains, rice,and dairy -products, nearly hall the expoit ofcotton, and in ore than one quarter of the ex-ports of oils and fats Were mmle utfiler Kpecial

programs. Rather over half th.e total value ofthe special program exports in the Sallie yearWaS accounted for by exports of cereals of allkinds, about one quarter was cotton, whiledairy products, fats and oils made up inost ofthe balance.

Although shipments under the special pro-grams covered in Table II-9 represent by farthe largest part of United States Governmentassistance to agricultural exports, it should notbe supposed that the balance of the exportsis entirely on a commercial basis. Two othermain forms of subsidy may be inentioned.3United States exports under the InternationalWheat Agreement are subsidized at the, rateof approximately 70 cents per bushel : in ef-

fect, them,fore, virtually al! -United States wheatexports are subsidized in one way or anoth.er.Secondly, the Commodity Credit Corporationsell commodities for export to private export-ers at less than the domestic price ; .its losseson such transactions are thus in effect a typeof export subsidy. The magnitude of expend-itures under these two headings is set out in

Table H-10 ; the total amounts in the years1955/56 and 1956/57 amounted to some 4-5

3In addition, one third of 'United States customsrevenues are set asirle for export prornotion underan Act of 1936, but in recent years the amountsspent for agricultural exports under this headingare insignificant.

29

percent of the total value of "United Statesagricultural exports in those years, and of sume6-8 percent of the total value of exports outsidethe special programs. No details are avail-able of the destination uf shipments under thesehead lugs.

TABLE H-10. UNITED STATES OrOVERNMENT SUB -SI DI ES ON AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS OUTSIDE THE

SPECIAL .PROGRAMS

(a) Less than 500,000 dollars.oro February 1958. 2Estimat ed1 on basis of first 10

iii 011t11S' ODeratiOBS. 311elrescoli ng tl afference be-tween the C(111 investment and tIn sales price and thus includ-ing an element of storage (lid other costs.

Rather complete details are published of thedestination by VOill1Ile and value of shipmentsunder P.L. 480, especially under Titles I and II(see Annex Table 10) but sintliar informationunder other programs appears to be less read-ily available. A reasonably clear picture of

the general distribution of shipments under thespecial programs may be obtained, however,from Table II-11, though the total figures inthe final column should be taken as indicativeonly, since periods covered and the methodof costing in the first three columns are notidentical. :It is evident, however, that thelargest shipments have been to Europe and theFar East, followed in turn by the Near 11.1;a,stand Latin America.

Under Title I of P. L. 480 the largest shipmentsof wheat have been to India (7-8 million tons),Yugoslavia (2.1 million tons), Brazil (0.06 mil-lion tons), Turkey (0.92 million tons) Japan(0.84 million tons). ItaAy has been the largestimporter of cotton under this Title (90,000 tons),folio.wed by Japan (69,000) Indonesia (43,000)

UBS I DIES 19:54/55

1955/56

1956/57

1957/58

lilien U.S. dol ars .

Payments on exportsunder InternationalWheat Agreement . . 91 75 67 145.5

Losses on CCC sales toprivate exporters, .

of which:Butter, etc.

50

()70

()159

(12)

287

(a)Meat andpoultry . () () (a) ()

Cotton, etc. () () (14) (14)Wheat tfildflour . . . (50) (70) (133) (73)

Total payments or losses 141 145 226

and Pakistan. All figures relate to total ship-ments to the end of 1957. Comprehensive datahave been published for a I commodities.

TA BLE IIÌ1. DESTINATION OF AGRICULTURALSI-I IPMENTS FROM THE UNITED STATES 'UNDER

SPECIAL PROG:RANIS

SOURCES : U.S. Depart omit of Agriculture, c'oin Iliodity Cre-dit Corporation, Iteport of Title I Oper:diuns (PL480) No. 57 and of Title II Operations (P.L. I80)No. 37; International 0000er0tion Administra-tion, Operations Report, (Th(to as of 30 ,lium 1957).

"Shipments : estdmated cost to ()CC. 'Shipments : atex-port market values. - "tlx.penditures. 4Includes about845 million shipped to Australia, (anuda, and the Union ofSouth Africa,.

Exports from European Countries

Since domestic prices of agricultural productsin most European countries, as in the UnitedStates, are generality higher than prices oilworld markets, export trade involves, of ne-cessity, recourse to export subsidies. The prob-lem has become more acute as the rapid de-velopment of agricultural technology, combined.with :price supports or direct subsidies to pro-ducers, gives tise to exportable surpluses evenin countries 11,here agricultural policy does notami at developing or maintaining exports.

An expert group at the Organization forEuropean Economic Co-operation (OEEC) is atpresent engaged in a study of the problema ofaids to exports. The group has not been ableto obtain figures for the volume of subsidizedexports and consid.ers that " an exhaustivestudy of the statistics would not yield valid

30

conclusions as to the real incidence of the meas-ures applied, except in certain limited cases. "According to the same experts, it seems equallyimpossible to estimate the valus of subsidizedtrade iii agricultural products ia Europe. Thevalue of the aids to export is dependent on thedifference at a given time between pm-ices inthe home market and- the price in interna-tional trade. Whether aid is intermittent orregular also depends on the size of the export-able surpluses for the year in question and thetime require,d for their disposal.

The different :forms that this export aidtakes in the various countries ranges from directgrants to exporters of bonuses or subsidies bygovernments, financing of all or part of lossesincurred on exports, etc., to a siimple reduction_of rail way ta,riffs for export goods. Althoughsome countries, e.g., Finland, resort mainly todirect State subsidies, .while non-governmentalbodies play a leading part in other countriessuch as A.ustria, :Ireland, Sweden, and S wit -zerland , individual cases are rarely clear-cut.Owing ti) the coimplexity and th.e intermin-gling of the variou8 forms of aid to exports, itis hard to decide ti) .what extent, or even at whatperiod, subsidies come from th.c producers' organ-ization alone, from direct government assist-aace, or from indirect aid based 011 CO mpensa-tion and equalization systems.

A list of the chief products, .which benefitfrom aids to exports in ti-he dIfferelit exportingEuro pean countries, is given below

Wheat iii Fraace, Italy, and SwedenMeat in Austria, Belgium, Finland,

France, Italy, Norway, Neth.er-lands (pig meat), United King-dom, Sweden, Western Germany

Butter in Austria, Finland, France, Ire-land, Netherlands, Norway, Swe-den, Switzerland

Cheese in the same countries as for but-ter, adding Italy and Belgium

Fruit in France, Greece, Italy, Spain,S witzerland.

This list includes, in fact, all exporting coun-tries except :Denmark ; even this country can,however, in extreme cases be considered to ap-ply aid to exports. The .Danisll bounty on

4Newly proposed measures to foster exports ofDanish agricultural products are discussed else-where in. this chapter.

Halton U.S. doll( r.

Western :Europe 1 044 '617 510 2 171 (47%)

Eastern Europe 15 15

Latin America 299 25 25 349 (8%)

Far East. 1 080 118 319 1 517 (33%)

Near MLA 323 25 62 410 (9%)Africa 10 1 11.

Destination notknown . 112 112 (2%)

TOTAL , 2 771 898 916 4585(100%)

Itimmx

1'. L.180

Titles Iaod(Iuly1934to

Decem-ber

1957)1

P. L.480TitleIII

(4nly1951,

te)Decem-

ber1957)2

mutualSecu-rityAct

(Iuly1954to

June1957)"

Tot a Iof

precedingcohiinns

dollar exports of cheese is in effect an exportsubsidy, as producers of some types of cheesereceive a benefit comparable with the moreclear subsidies paid in other countries to but-ter exporters.

The two main products where the high levelof production gave 680 to marketing difficultiesin 1957 were butter and pig meat. '.11hese diffi-eulties .likely to persist. The folloNN'ingexamples for butter may be quoted. Finlandexported 2.5,200 metric tons of butter in :1957.23 percent more thrtn in 11056 with a govern-ment subsidy amounting to 7,200 million mark-kaa (22.5 million U.S. dollars). Total 8utniidiesfor butter, cheese, eggs, milk powder, and pork1.eached the level of 12,500 million markkaa(40 milhon dollars) in 1957. Exportable sur-pluses are expected to continue to rise in 1958and the devaluation of the currency will prob-ably be uf small relief as international pricesare falling. Sweden, exported 2:3,800 metric;tons of butter in 1957, 10 percent more thanin 1956 at pices much below the level of do-mestic wholesale prices. Norywy exported 7,100metric tons of butter, 17 percent 1110F0 than in1956, at prices which were 7 percent lower thanin 1956. In Austria the bulk of the surplusmilk production has gone into butter, exportof which the government has subsidized-without effectively moving the surplus. In Jan-uary-November 1.957, 8,000 metric tons ofbutter were exported (28 percent of the marketproduotion). :Export prices during the firstnine months were 22,39 sehillings per kilogramcompared with a domestic wholesale price of31.42 schillings. During the first 11 months in:1957, butter exports from Ireland totaled 13,000metric tons, almost 18 times the amount ex-ported during all of 1956. Over 90 percent ofIrish butter exports in 1057 went to the UnitedKingdom under heavy subsidy. Trade statisticsindicate that 5,200 metric tons of butter wereexported during the third quarter of 1057 at anaverage f.o.b. price equivalent to 38.5 centsper pound. During this period the wholesale)price of creamery butter in Dublin was equiv-alent to 54.8 cents per pound. Similar OXRT11-

pte,s could be given of the subsidized export ofpig meat.

Other instances could also be quoted. Ex-ports of agricultural produce from Italy, forexample, increased by 801110 20 percent in 1.957in comparison with 1956, but this rise was duealmost entirely to the exceptionally large ex-ports of soft wheat, flour, and sugar below

31

cost prices. In the first half of 1957, soft wheatwas exported at 4,600 liro per quintal as com-pared with an average domestic price of about7,000 lire. Government support price for wheat,however, is to be reduced alter the 1958/59season. In 1956/57 more than 17,000 metric;tons of surplus sugar were exported at pricesconsiderably below the domestic level.

Tho list of cases could be extended and com-pleted by, e.g., a systematic comparison ofexport unit values and domestic, wholesale price-%The examples quoted, however, are enoughto indicate that the directly or itatireatysub6idized export of a,gricultural products in.Western Europe is very widespread, thoughthe scale of such operations is, of course, sub-stantially smaller than in the Unitc,,,d. States.

CHANGES IN STOCK LEVELS IN 1957/58

'iero WM no fundamelital change, in thestock situation in 1957/58. Stocks of sumecommodities, notably wheat and cotton, weresubstantially reduced in some casos, probablyonly temporarily, Stocks of other eommod-ities, notably coarse grains, substantiallycreased. Despite surplus disposal operations and111.CaS111.'08 designed to curtail surplus production,the; high level of stocks continues o overhangthe market (Table II-12).

At the end of 1957/58 stocks of wheat in thefour main exporting countries are likely to be,about 10 percent lower than a year earlier a6result of smaller crops in these countries andsurplus disposal operations. Even now, how-ever, wheat stocks are high and they are likelyto go up again in 1958/59 since present prospectsare for heavy whea,t crops in North America,while export outlets, oven at concessional terms,are likely to contract. Stocks of coarse grainsin North America, are expected to be at the rec-ord level of some 63 million tons at the end of1957/5'8, nearly one quarter higher than a yearearlier, mainly 'because of the record crop inthe 'United States. As production in both theUnited States and Canada, is likely to iliereasein 1958, yet a further addition to stocks in 1058/59 seems probable. Stocks of rice remainedat their recent fairly low level in 1957/58.

The major reduction of United States stocksof cotton achieved in 1056/57 as a result ofproduction controls and the largest volume, ofexports for 25 years continued in 1957/58, de-spite an appreciably lower level of exports. Stocksat the end of 1957/58 are likely to be some 1.3

TA.BLE I 2. ESTIMATED STOCKS OF MAJOR COMMODITIES, 1952-58

NOTE : Quantities shown include normal carry-over stocks.'Excluding Mainland China. - ,Rye, barley, oats, maize, sorghum. - .1.41aize and sorghum : 1 October. -,,United King-dom, Western Germany, Ireland, .Netherlands, Sweden. - 'Including seed in oil equivalent. - 'Carry-over of oils and soybeans1. October ; cottonseed : 1 August. 7Flue-eured types : 1 July. - 'Excluding U.S.S.R., Eastern Europe, and China andincluding in stocks estimated of cotton afloat. - ',Stocks include estimates of rubber afloat but exclude strategic stock pilesthese are probably in the region of 1.5 million tons. - "United States and Canadian mills and United States consumers. -

"Belgium-Luxembourg, Denmark, Western Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland, and United Kingdom. - "Austria, Norway,Sweden, and Yugoslavia. - "Belgium-Luxembourg, Western Germany, United Kingdom. - "Austria and Yugoslavia.

COMMODITY 111011t11

Stocks1852 1951 1951 1955 1955 1957 1.958(forecast)

if healMillimb nu t, le los

United States 1 July 7.0 16.5 25.4 28.2 28.1 24.7 23.8Canada. . . . , 1 Aug. 5.9 10.4 16.8 14.6 15.8 19.9 17.7Argentina 1 Dee. 0.1 2.0 1.6 2.4 1.5 2.2 1 . 2Australia I Dee. 0.5 1 . 8 2.6 2.6 2.4 1.2 0.5

Total 4 major exporters . 13.5 29.9 46.4 47.8 47.8 48.0 43,2["lance 1 Aug. L2 0.8 1 . 0 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.7Italy 1 Aug. ... 2.1 1.4 2.0 2.1 1.6

Rice (milled equivalent)Asian exporters' 31 Dee. 0.7 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1United States 31 ,Taly 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.6Mediterranean exporters . . 30 Sept. - - 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1

Total 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.2 1.7 1 .0 0.8Coarse Grains 2

United States illy 18.5 24.7 29.4 37.3 43.2 44.8 57 . 5Canada I Aug,. 3.6 5.1 5.6 3.7 4.6 6.9 6.0

Total 2 major expor e s . 22.1 29.8 35.0 41.0 47.8 51.7 63.5Butter

United States Dee. 0.01 0.03 0 A 7 0.07 0.01 0.04European countries' . 'Dec. ... 0.04 0.03 0.08 0.01) ...Oceania IDec. ... 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.06 ...

Total ... 0.27 0.16, 0.14 0.19Cheese

United States Dee. 0.10 0.11 0.09 0.09 0.28 0.28Dried Skim Milk

United States Dee. 0.02 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 ....Linseed Oil'

United States 1 July 0.41 0.37 0.28 0.16 0.10 0.22 0.06Argentina 1 1-.)ec. 0.30 0.23 0.08 0.03 - ... ...

Total 2 countries . . . . 0.71 0.60 0.36 0.19 0.10 ...Liquid Edible V egetable Oils

United States' 1 Oct. 0.24 0.58 0.56 0.33 0.28 0.28 0.36Sugar (raw value)

Cuba 31 Dec. 2.2 1 . 5 1.9 1.6 0.6 0.7World total 31 Aug. 10.7 10.2 12.0 11.5 10.5 9.8 ...

Co I f eeBrasil 30 J u n e 0.18 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.63 0.44 0.88

of which Government - - (0.22) (0.22) (0.52)United States 30 June 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.08 0.17 0.16 0.15

Total of above 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.28 0.80 0.60 1.03T obacco (farm weight)

United States 1 Oct.' L56 1.66 1.69 1.83 1.89 2.00 1.90Cotton (lint)

United States 0.60 1.22 2.11 2.43 3.14 2.45 1.86Other producers 1.58 1.52 1.29 1.40 0.63 1.06 1.17Importers 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.59 0.98 0.95 0.84

World total' 31 ,Tuly 2.90 3.44 4.08 4.42 4.75 4.40 3.87Natural Rubber

World total' 31 Dec. 0.73 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.74 0.76N ewsprint

North America', 31 Dec. 0.89 0.80 0.77 0.69 0.92 0.99Sawn Sol twood

European importers". 31 Dec. 5.74 6.19 5.56 6.12 5.27 5.65European exporters" 31 Dec. 4.31 3.63 4.05 4.50 4.06 3.79 ...North America 31 Dec. 14.25 ,I6.05 14.60 14.84 16.96 16.70S'awn Hardwoo(l

European importers" 31 Dec. 1.29 1.15 1.06 1.22 1.21 1.20European exporters" 31 Dec. 0.31 0,28 0.27 0.32 0.47 0.45North America 31 Dec. 7.90 7.9E) 9.54 7.86 8.74 8.66

million tons (40 percent) smaller than thepeak level two years ago. Elsewhere in theworld cotton stocks in producing countries havetended to rise, and in importing countries tofall, but in 1957/58 the total is likely to showlittle net change.

The t\vo most striking recent increases instock levels, apart from coarse grains, are inbutter and coffee. World butter stocks at theend of 1957 were over 35 percent higher tiran ayear earlier, and may rise further in 1958 un-less attempts to stimulate consumption and re-duce production achieve substantial success.Stocks of other dairy products do not give riseto such serious problems.

In the case of coffee, world stocks were heldat no more than a, necessary working leve!until 1955, but began to rise in 1956 and aft-er a temporary decline in 1957 are expectedto rise still higher in 1958 as production nowexceeds the effective demand at current pricelevels.

FIGURE 11-6. Growth of Certain Key Stocks ofAgricultural Products in the World and in

North America 1952-58

World Stocks 1952 100

1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958

r7-1 VVorld, excluding North America

/ North America

NOTE : Index based on stocks shown in 'fable II-12 only, and excludingforest products.

33

The movement of the aggregate volume ofall agricultural stocks included in Table IT-12(in terms of price-weighted indices) is shown inFigure 11-6. The estimated level of stocks inall regions at or about mid-1958 is not signifi-cantly different from a ye-a earlier, but thosein .North America (about three quarters of thetotal) seem likely to be fractionally lower,though by not more than 1 to 2 percent. Simi-larly, there has been a slight decline frOM 1 957in the level of stocks held by the United StatesCommodity Credit Corporation (Annex Table 11).Total stocks included in the table and chartare equivalent to rather over 110 percent of an-nual world agricultural production, excludingproduction in Eastern Europe, tire 'U.S.S.R.,and Mainland China. Stocks held in NorthAmerica are equivalent to rather more thanone third of the annual agricultural output ofthat region.

PRICE TRENDS IN INT.ERNATIONALMARKETS AND EARNINGS FROMAGRICULTURAL EXPORTS

In spite of the continuing fall in prices ofsome commodities, e.g., cereals and butter, theslow general decline in the level of agriculturalprices as a whole on world markets was haltedin the last quarter of 1956 and the first halfof 1957, largely as a reflection of the Suez crisis.The decline was resumed later in 1957 and con-tinued in early 1958. Nevertheless, prelimi-nary FAO indices of average export unit val-ues and average import unit values (prices) ofagricultural products as a whole were slightlyhigher for the calendar year 1957 than for 1956.

Indices of average export unit -values are setout in Table II-13 for agricultural products asa whole and for certain groups of agriculturalproducts, while the usual data on average unitimport values (in U.S. dollars per metric ton),together with indices of import unit values, areto be found in Annex Table 12. Price move-ments (average unit values) for selected com-modities are shown in Figure II-7.

The halt in the downward drift of agriculturalprices, however, was in a sense illusory, sincethe purchasing power on international marketsof agricultural products continued to fall be-cause of the continuing rise in average unitvalues of manufactured goods. Thus, froiti thelast quarter of 1956 to the last quarter of 1957the UN index of average export unit values ofmanufactured goods (a,djusted to the base

TABLE II-13. INDICES OF AVERAGE EXPORT UNIT V ALUES (PRICES) IN WORLD MA:RKETS

1952-53 = 100) rose from 102 in the last quarterof 1956 to 106 in the last quarter of 1957, whileaverage export unit valu.es of agricultural prod-ucts between these two quarters was virtuallyunchanged. In effect, therefore, their purchas-ing power for manufactured goods fell by 4points, from 92 to SS (1952-53 100).

In comparison with the base period (averageof the two years 1952 and 1953) the averagepurchasing power in 1957 of agriculturalexports as a whole for manufactured goodsappears to have fallen by about 10 percent(Table II-13). About hadf this decline is dueto lower agricultural prices and about half tothe rise in prices of manufactured goods. Thefall was heaviest for food and feedingstuffs,where prices fell by 9 percent and purchasingpower by 14 percent. For agricultural rawmaterials as a whole the correspondingfigures were 4 percent and 9 percent. For

34

Import unit values: not included in general index for all agricultural products. --- 2 UN index of average export un ¡tvalues adjusted to 1952-53 base.

the commodity group beverages and tobaccoaverage export unit values in terms of U.S.dollars in 1956 and 1957 were almost ex-actly at the 1952-53 level, though much_10Wer than the boom year of 1954 and thedecline in purchasing power in comparison withthe base period thus resulted entirely froin therise in non-agricultural prices (Figure II-8). Itmay be added that in spite o-f the almost con-tinuous fall in the purchasing power of agricul-tural products as a whole in the last four yearstisis is still substantially higher than during thedepression of the nineteen-thirties. In compar-ison with the index figures of 90 for 1957(1952-53 =- 100) the average for the five years1934-38 was exceptionally low at 64.

The averages for groups of commodities na-turally conceal larger and often divergentmovements for individual products. 'The follow-ing list, for example, sets out the average unit

(1) (2) (:i) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) 2 (l9)2 1-10

ndiees : 1952-53 = 100

1947 87 105 73 71 108 106 82 97 83 97 001948 97 114 76 88 126 110 93 118 93 101 961949. 90 102 72 88 101 106 98 113 81 95 911950 95 92 89 103 86 95 83 84 72 84 1121951 118 103 100 157 93 122 94 93 114 101 1171952 102 101 99 107 100 98 102 100 107 102 1011953 98 99 101 03 1100 102 98 100 93 98 1001954. 100 91 126 93 85 97 103 97 93 96 1041955 94 87 107 95 80 87 107 98 94 98 961956. 92 87 101. 91 77 91 104 99 95 101 911957 (piel.) 95 91 100 96 76 92 104 90 94 105 90

QUarterly Indices

1954 I 99 95 115 92 90 105 100 97 97 102II 104 94 135 95 87 102 99 93 97 107

102 92 138 90 82 97 103 96 96 106IV 97 88 123 93 81 89 111 102 96 101

1955 I 99 90 117 99 82 89 109 98 96 103IT 96 88 109 97 82 86 103 93 97 98III 92 87 100 92 80 87 105 96 98 94TV 92 86 102 92 77 87 111 103 99 93

1956 T 92 87 90 93 76 89 107 105 100 92II 91 88 96 92 77 92 105 94 101 90III 91 87 102 88 76 92 102 98 101 90IV 93 89 103 93 78 90 104 99 102 92

1957 T 96 91 102 100 77 93 106 88 104 93(Piel.) 96 91 100 100 76 94 100 86 105 91

III 95 92 99 95 76 91 107 93 105 90IV 93 91 101 91 76 89 102 92 106 88

YEAR Oil QUARTER

Allagricul-tural

products

Foodand

ftieding-stullS

Bever-agesand

tobacco

Agricul-tural'raw

materialsCereals

Edibleoil andoiliceds

Meat 1)airyproducts

Forestproducts

Manu-factured

goods

Termsof

trade

import value of some key agricultural productsin 1957 as a percentage of the average 1952-53in each case the real purchasing power formanufactured goods would be some 5 percent'lower than the figures shown. It should berecalled, however, that in many instances,e.g., wool, prices in the last quarter Of 1957,

300

200

150

100

90

80

FIGURE II-7(a). Average Prices of Selected Agricultural Products in World TradeQuarterly Data, 1954-57

Export Unit Values in U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton

es.

and still more in early 1958, were lower thanthe average for 1957 as a whole (see AnnexTable 12). It should also be borne in mindthat in some instances, e.g., rice, ,the changereflects an unusually high price level in thebase period, or vice versa as in the caseof tea.

'

.0'

... % ...."*.

S e e Vaa

%ii,

35

,,,mges ono

....o.0.

.0 .

^^

VVool

Tea

Butter

Cotton

Mutton and lamb

Sugar

Rice

o 0Wheat

II III IV

1954 1957

II III IV

1956

II III IV

1955

1500

1000

900

800

700

600

500

400

Jute

Wine

70

60

1500

1000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

90

80

70

60

50

FIGURE II-7(b). Average Prices of Selected Agricultural Products in World Trade

Quarterly Data, 1954-57

Export Unit Values in U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton

36

Tobacco

Coffee

Cacao

Rubber

Linseed oil

Oranges

Maize

Rice 71 Cocoa 83 Groundnuts 98 Sugar 111Wheat 76 Maize 88 Rubber 98 Tobacco 113Cotton 78 Bacon 95 Beef and veal 103 Tea 133Eggs 82 Coffee 97 Wool 105 Mutton and larnb 148Butter 83 Jute 106

IV IV IV IV

1954 1955 1956 1957

Average Unit Values of Certain Agricultural Products in 1.957 as a Percentage of 1952-53 Average

FIGURE 11-8. Average Unit Values of Agricultural Products in World Trade in Relation to AverageExport Values of Manufactured Goods - Quarterly Data, 1954-57

Average 1952-53 = 100

110

100

90

80

o

Forest Products

International prices of forest products haveremained remarkably stable since the Koreanboom, and in general this stability continuedduring the greater part of 1957. Prices ofroundwood, wood pulp and pulp products,however, began to fall in the late summer of1957. In Europe, where inte,rnational trade inroundwood is largest, prices of pulp wood andpitprops fell by smne 10 percent between theautumn of 1957 and the spring of 1958, butappeared to have been stabilized at the lowerlevel in the summer of 1958. A similar falloccurred in prices of mechanical wood pulpand the unbleached grades of chemical woodpulp. In the case of sawnwood, prices beganto decline as early as mid-1956 in the -UnitedStates, where by the spring of 1958 the fallliad amounted to some 12-17 percent, but inEurope there was little change in prices, exceptthat resulting from falling freight rates, untilthe spring of 1958. Following the weaker de-mand in early 1958, export prices from theU.S.S.R. were reduced by some 4-5 percent andFinnish shippers followed suit in late April.The market thus became more uncertain, a,n.d

0

Iestreoemooe

37

e eaflooeposeeo.000e

.0°0000.

oms. ate mo...ome.o

-

further price cuts occurred in mid-May whenSoviet shippers reduced their prices by a further4-7 percent. Other exporters then had toadapt their prices accordingly, including Swedishshippers who had previously maintained theirprices. No immediate recovery seems likelyin view of the continuing weakness of demand.

Earnings from Agricultural ExportsEarnings of foreign currency from agricultural

exports naturally depend on the volume ofexports as well as the price level, or rath.erthe price level in relation to the prices of thegoods which are imported in exchange, anda number of exporting countries in recent yearshave endeavored to compensate for less favor-able prices by larger exports. The volume ofexports has also been increased by surplusdisposal operations and in other ways. Howfar in any particular' case a larger volume ofexports results in larger earnings naturally de-pends on, e.g., the strength of the demandfor the commodity in question, and the com-petition met from other exporters or fromdomestic production in importing countries. Theover-all position is examined below.

1954 1955 1956 1957

.0 .° ° * Manufactured goods Agricultural exports

.17.12,0 Agricultural imports Real value of agricultural exports

T1B113 II-14. VOLUME AND REAL VALUE OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS 2 BY MAIN COMMODITY GROUPS1952-57

Because of the gradual decline during thepast four years of average export unit valuesof agricultural products, and still more in theirpurchasing power, the recent sharp rise in thevolume of agricultural exports has not, ofcourse, been accompanied by a correspondingincrease in earnings by agricultural exporters.Thus, for agricultural products as a whole theincrease of 20 percent in the volume of exportsin 1957 over 1952-53 resulted in an increaseof only 8 percent in earnings (in. real terms).For food and feedingstuffs, where the fall inprices was sharper, an increase of 25 percentin the volume of exports also produced a riseof only about 8 percent in real earnings Forthe two commodity groups beverages and to-bacco and raw materials, the fall in prices incomparison with 1952-53 has been smaller, andthe disparity between the growth of exportsand the growth of earnings correspondinglyreduced. But for the beverages group,- andespecially for coffee and cocoa, export earningsare, of course, far below the peak year 1954.

Comparisons of the growth of the volume ofexports with the growth in real export earn-ings are made in Table II-15 and Figure II-9for each region of the world, as well as forthe less and the more economically developedregions combined and for the world as a whole.It is seen that there is in nearly every case

"Total export earnings (f.o.b.) of all agricultun I exporters, deflated by UN index of average unit export values of manufae-¡Awed goods. -- 2Exeluding exports from Eastern Europe, the U.S.S.R., and Mainland China.

38

a consistent general pattern : a widening ofthe gap in recent years between the indicesof export volume and real export earnings dueto the lagging behind of the latter index. Thedisparity is particularly marked for Latin Amer-ica and Africa, where the fall in prices ofcoffee and cocoa from the high levels of 1954had a profound effect. An exception is theNear East, where rising prices of Turkishtobacco and Egyptian cotton have offset lowerprices for cereal exports. It may be addedthat since the indices cover mainly unprocessedfoodstuffs they are somewhat less completefor the more developed regions than for theless developed regions, since the former areexporting increasing quantities of, e.g., processedfruit and vegetables, which are not included.In particular, both the volume and value indicesof exports from North America, which alsoexclude exports under the "relief and charityprograms," would be somewhat higher if thecoverage liad been comprehensive.

Th.e figures in Table II-15, as all other tablesof the total and unit values of .internationaltrade, include sales for foreign currency andother surplus disposal shipments at the dollarequivalents of the values shown in the tradestatistics of the exporting and importing coun-tries. It is of interest that if the shipmentsunder special programs set out in Table H-9

COMMODITY 1932 1953 1931 1933 1936 1957(piel.)

Indices : 1952-33 100

All agricultural products

Volume 98 102 102 108 118 120Real value 98 102 106 104 107 108

Food and feedingstuff s

Volume 98 102 104 112 123 125Real value 97 103 98 99 107 108

:Beverages and tobacco

Volume 96 104 98 107 116 113Real value 96 108 127 115 116 108

Raw materials

Volume 99 101 101 103 112 116Real value 103 97 99 102 102 109

TABLE 11-15. VOLUME AND REAL VALUE OF AGRICULTURAL ExconTs

above were ex eluded, the indices of the realvalue of world agricultural exports in 1955,1956, and 1957 would be reduced to 97, 98,and 99, respectively, while those from the moredeveloped regions would fall to 82, 86, and 92in the same years. It thus appears that themore rapid growth of agricultural exports fromthe more developed countries in recent years,and indeed the expansion of agricultural ex-

39

ports as a vhole, has been largely the resultof surplus disposal operations, though i.t cannotof course be assumed th.at none of these ship-ments would llave been made if facilities forexports under special terms and other measuresto stimulate exports had not been available.The .relation of specia,1 program exports to total'United States agricultural exports was shownin Table II-0 itself.

REGioN 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957

All Regions (excl. Soviet bloc)hulices 1952-53 100

VolumeReal Value

9898

102102

102106

108104

118107

120108

More Developed Regions

Volume 102 98 98 104 122 128Real value 100 100 98 100 111 113

Less Developed Regions

Volume 95 105 105 111 116 114Real value . 96 104 111 107 105 104

Western Europe

Volume. 97 103 114 125 124 127Real value 98 102 111 118 116 115

iVorth America

Volume 107 93 90 91 125 135Real va,lue 106 94 90 88 112 114

Oceania

Volume 97 103 94 105 111 116Real value 92 109 97 100 101 108

Latin, America,

Volume 91 109 103 1.09 116 109Real ValUO 90 110 115 103 105 102

Far EastVolume 100 100 102 111 109 112Real value 103 97 99 110 102 99

Near East

Volume 85 115 106 102 100 109Real value 95 105 108 98 98 110

Africa

Volumo 98 102 114 122 129 129Real value 97 103 123 116 114 114

120

110

100

90

110

100

90

120

FIGURE 11-9. Volume and Real Value of Agricultural Exports by RegionsAverage 1952-53 =-- 100

LATIN AMER CA WESTERN EUROPE

100

90

120

110

100

90

120

o

100

90

Volume Real value

40

OPIZI.000401p01111

120

10

100

130

120

110

100

90

00

110

100

90

120

110

100

90

GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONSAND THE DEMAND FOR AGRICUL-TURAL PRODUCTS

In mid-1958 the world economic situationand outlook is dominated by the recession inthe United States and uncertainties as to futuredevelopments in that country. Economic prog-ress has also slowed down in most other in-dustrial countries and in some a decline hasset in, though in no case as sharply as in the'United States. Slackening business activity inthe industrial countries has inevitably affectedthe less developed ones and, indeed, allcountries substantially dependent on agricul-tural or other primary exports. The weakerdemand for their export products has accelerat-ed the falling trend of prices for most basiccommodities and reduced their earnings. Al-ready vulnerable through long-standing balance-of-payment difficulties, these countries haveliad to scale down their development plans andoften to reimpose or strengthen restrictions onimports. These measures are beginning toreact back on the industrialized countries,where the slowdown in economic activity orig-inated, and to increase their difficulties. Whilethe Communist group of countries is not greatlyaffected by changes in the level of businessactivity in th.e rest of the world, theyhave other difficulties, notably in the agricul-tural sector, as is discussed elsewhere in thisreport.

The recession in North America originatedfrom a reduction in private business invest-ment, a trend_ also apparent in other industri-alized countries. Until early 1958 most of thesecountries were following anti-inflationary poli-cies which necessitated restraints on both pri-vate and public investment. At the same time,less favorable business prospects and expecta-tions of lower prices led to a reduction of inven-tories. The smaller dema,nd for both invest-ment goods and stocks was reflected in reduc-ed industrial production. In the United Statesit had already fallen, by May 1958, by morethan in either of two preceding recessions in1948-49 and 1953-54. EVC11 ill countries whereindustrial production has not yet declined andwhere unemployment remains at a low :level,working hours have generally been shortened.Labor earnings have thus been reduced andaccustomed annual pay increases often foregone.The lower level or slower growth of consumers'incomes has so far had little or no influence

41

on purchases of food in the industrialized coun-tries and has mainly affected purchases of con-sumers' durables and private house building.

Anti-inflationary policies are 11.01V being rathergenerally modified. In the first half of 1958a number of countries, including the 'UnitedStates, the United Kingdom, Western Germany,the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, and Denmark,made credit easier and cheaper as a means ofstimulating private investment and, in somecountries, consumer purchases as well. Theextension of provisions for unemployment reliefin the United States will also tend to maintainconsumers' purchasing power. More potentmeasures, such as tax reductions or extensivepublic works, are also being put into operationin some countries.

The fall in prices on export markets ofagricultural products (discussed elsewhere) hascontributed to the improved terms of tradeof the importing countries, but the WOrtiell-

ing balance-of-payment position of exportingcountries is evident in sharp falls in the freemarket exchange rates of the currencies ofmany agricultural exporting countries. In thetwelve months ending February 1958 the Uru-guayan peso went down by 25 percent, theBrazilian cruzeiro by 33 percent, the Colombianpeso by 12 percent, and even the normallystable Peruvian sol by 6 percent. In the FarEast the deterioration in the terms of tradeis the most disturbing feature in addition toreduced export volumes. Burma, Ceylon, theFederation of Malaya, Pakistan, and the Phi-lippines ail lost substantial amounts of theirforeign exchange reserves due to price falls ofagricultural commodities, a situation which wasaggravated in Indonesia by political unrest.The worsening of the terms of trade forcedIndia to a reduction of planned capital expend-iture under the second Five-Yar Plan, andeven current industrial production liad to bereduced as industrial materials, too, becamesubject to import restrictions imposed for bal-ance-of-payment reasons.

In Oceania, Australia's earnings from salesof wool in the first nine months of the 1957/58season were down by more than 20 percentcompared with the previous season, and totalexport earnings in. 1957/58 are expected to bereduced by 1.5 to 18 percent, leaving just e.noughto cover the estimated import bill. New Zea-land expects its export earnings in 1.958 to belower than in 1957 by over 15 percent, neces-sitating substantial import restrictions.

Contrary to the fall in demand and priceson export markets, the demand for domesticallyproduced foodstuffs, and in general for agricul-tural raw materials, has been well maintainedin both industrial and less developed countries.Support pleasures have contributed to the gen-eral stability of domestic prices. Moreover,past experience suggests that in hard timesconsumers economize first on durable goods andonly later, and as a last resort, change to asimpler or smaller diet. The repercussions ofthe slackening of economic activity on agricul-ture have thus been largely concentrated sofar on some sectors of the export trade. Thearea affected may, of course, enlarge consider-ably if the recovery of the world economy doesnot come fairly soon.

Short-Term Outlook

So far as North America is concerned thereare as yet (June 1958) no signs of a pendingturn of the economic tide, and none of theprincipal economic indicators point to ami earlyrecovery. The only counteracting forces yetvisible are the efforts of governments to reversethe downward trend and these are likely tobe strengthened if monetary and fiscal meas-ures prove insufficient. Increased goverrunentexpenditures, e.g., for public works, increasedfinancial aid for private housing, and measuresto encourage private investment have alreadybeen provided for in the United States. SimilarIlleaSUreS are likely to be adopted in Canada.

In Western Europe some governments, includ-ing Norway, the Netherlands, and the UnitedKingdom, have started programs of publicworks or have reduced taxes to prevent theslowing down of business activity from harden-ing into a recession. But there are growingfears that this may happen if the North Amer-ican recession is long continued. Shrinkingforeign orders presage a further fall in exports,and the emergence of surplus supplies of, forexample, coal and steel has already affectedprices. If, as is likely, this reacts in turn onprices of other products, their present advan-tageous terms of trade would become less favor-able and balance-of-payment difficulties mayagain emerge.

While government measures may well pre-vent any further worsening of the situation,a real recovery must await a revival of inven-tory accumulations and business expansion.Further reductions in inventories in North Amer-

42

ica are perhaps unlikely, but the rebuildingof stocks will depend on a revival of businessconfidence. Private investment, however, maydecline even further. Studies of business plansin the United States indicate a decline of about17 percent in 1958 from the previous year'slevel and a further decline of about 8 percentin 1959. In Canada the fall in investment in1958 is of the order of 10 percent. In WesternEurope, too, expenditures on industrial plantsand equipment are tending to fall. The outlookfor 1958/59 in the industrial countries thusseems, at the best, to be the maintenance ofthe level of economic activity of early 1958.

The demand for domestically produced agri-cultural products in these countries should re-main fairly strong, as consumers' incomes arenot likely to be reduced to an extent thatwould materially affeet expenditures on foodand clothing. For agricultura,1 exporting coun-tries, however, the prospect of a delayed recov-ery may further reduce foreign demand andexport earnings and aggravate their precariousbalanceof-payment position. They may not,in 1958/59, be able to restore imports and invest-ment expenditures to their former levels. This,in turn, would be likely to slow down theexpansion of demand for agricultural productson their domestic markets.

It is generally expected, however, that theanti-recession measures of the industrializedcountries will stop the downward trend andthat some time in 1959, at the latest, a renew-ed expansion is probable. Given the underly-ing growth factors of a rapidly increasing worldpopulation and the universal drive toward in-creased industrialization and higher living stand-ards, recovery is generally considered unlikelyto be long delayed, and when it comes it maywell be rapid.

PRICES AND THE FARMER

Data on relations between prices paid andreceived by farmers are available for ratherfew countries, among which no underdevel-oped countries are included. In some of thesecountries there was a fairly strong movementagainst farmers in 1957 and early 1958, eitherbecause prices received fell or prices paid rose,or a combination of both. This was the casein, for example, Australia, Belgium, Calladaand Finland. In some other countries, includ-ing the TJAited States, Germany and Japan,the relation between prices received and paid

remained fairly constant. In none of thecountries for which there is information wasthere any definite improvement in the ratio(Figure II-10).

Canadian farmers experienced a price squeezepartly on prices paid and partly on pricesreceived. In the early months of 1957, pricespaid continued to rise as they had donethroughout 1956. In the second part of the year,however, prices paid by farmers becanie fairlystable, but prices recived started to fall, thoughthey turned upwards again in early 1958.Taking the year as a whole, the relationship

FIGURE il-10. Index of Prices Received andPrices Paid by Farmers

1952-53 100

120

110 -

100

90 -

130 -

120 -

110

100

90 -

CANADA80 -

130 -

120 -

110 -

100

loo

AUSTRALIA

AUSURIA

.... ..

........

.....

BELGIUM

SO LEVA?

SW ITZERLAND

1952-53 1956 1957 58 1952-53 1956 1957 58

Prices received

Prices paid

43

of prices paid to prices received was between5 and 10 percent less favorable to Canadianfarmers in 1957 than in 1956, and this trendcontinued into 1958.

By contrast, this relationship in the UnitedStoles was only very slightly 'less favorable tofarmers in 1957 than in 1956 and in the firstquarter of 1958 there were signs of improve-ment, though this may be tem.porary. Pricespaid by farmers were remarkably stable, therebeing no change in the index from March toOctober 1957. Prices received trended upwardsuntil August and then, after some :months ofweakness, rose again early in 1958. By IIVIarch,the relationship was about as favorable againas it had been in 1954 and 1955. It is notele-a how long farmers will continue to benefitfrom the recent movement of prices receivedin their favor. Some factors, such as the effect01 frost on the Florida citrus crop, are clearlyvery temporary, but others, such as the relativeshortage of livestock products, may last longer.

In Europe the most important factor in pricerelationships for farmers appears to have beenthe rise in prices paid. This may seem surpris-ing in view of current surplus difficulties, butis largely explained by support measures whichstabilize the prices farmers receive, while theprices they pay have been largely left to findtheir own level. Thus the squeeze on farmers,where it occurred, was mostly from prices paid,which in many countries continued their steadyupward movement, while prices received remain-ed fairly stable. Austria, Finland, the Nether-lands, and Norway, all experienced price move-ments which left farmers worse placed in thefirst quarter of 1958 than in the first quarterof 1956, though in some cases, e.g., the Nether-lands and Norway, there were some signs ofrecovery during 1957, mainly because the risein pm-ices paid slowed down. In Germany move-ments in prices were rather indefinite, butthe rise in milk prices late in 1957 restoredsome of the ground lost by farm prices.

Outside North America and Europe, there isinformation for only two countries, japan andAustralia. The data for Australia show a fairdegree of stability in the relationship of pricespaid and prices received during 1956 and thefirst six months of 1957, but indices are notyet available for late 1957 when the, fail in

wool and wheat prices occurred. Farm pricesin Japan continued to manifest the stabilitywhich has been a feature of that country inrecent years, though, as a result of a slight

.,----- E-------7.--.,... -

--

. ..,.... ..... ......

... ...... . / -WESTERN GERMANY

-... .,.. -

- ...

-

....

JAIN,

....... ....., -.. i

-NET, ERLANDS -

..... ..... .........__

UN/TER STATES

30

20

10

00

30

20

10

00

120

110

100

90

120

110

100

90

80

110

100

90

80

increase in prices paid, the relationship was alittle less favorable to farmers in 1957 thanin 1956, and this continued into the earlypart of 1958.

One notable feature about farm expenditureis that, in spite of the rise in unit costs, farmershave continued to use more by quantity ofthe goods and services needed to carry onproduction, with the exception of agriculturallabor. Further information is given in a latersection on farm requisites.

Price Levels in Different Countries

As noted above, the greater stability of farmprices in recent years than before the warlargely reflects the general adoption of pricesupports for a wide range of products. Butprice supports developed independently in eachcountry, usually in agricultural economies al-ready distorted by prewar tariffs and postwarinflation. It was probably inevitable thereforethat support prices in different countries shouldhave been established at widely different levels,if converted to a CO/11111On currency. The wide.range of prices for the same product fromcountry to country does not necessarily reflectdifferences in purchasing power. In large meas-ure the prices are the outcome of fixed officialexchange rates, which in many countriesdiffer appreciably from those which would beestablished on a free currency exchange. Never-theless, since these are the exchange ratesapplicable to most international transactions,the Wide range of prices in dollar equivalents(or other common currency) frequently neces-sitates tariffs, quotas, or other means of regulat-ing market supplies or prices, especially wherethe level of prices to the domestic producer isofficially guaranteed.

Because of these repercussions on internationaltrade, considerable interest attaches to the com-parisons of average returns to farmers in differ-ent countries for some main agricultural productsin Figures I1-11 and II-12, and in Annex Table13. In all cases these have 'been converted to1.1.S. dollars per metric ton at official exchangerates.

It should be noted that the figures used inthe tables and charts are not strictly prices,although referred to as such below. Theyrepresent as nearly as possible the averagereturn per ton to farmers for all grades market-ed, and include not only the actual price receiv-ed but also any additional receipts from sub-

44

sidies, bonuses or other agricultural support pay-ments. However, for these reasons they areprobably more adequate indicators of the realsituation, both as regards international tradea,nd a country's internal price structure, thanprice quotations for one particular grade.

The wide range of prices shown by thetabulations .is striking, even if some of theextremes are omitted. For example, in thecase of wheat only 13 of the 21 countriesfor which data are available had average re-turns within ± 15 percent of the median pricein 1956/57, while in 4 countries average returnsdiffered by over 30 percent. Yet wheat is oneof the commodities for which the price rangeis smallest. For milk, only 7 out of 18 coun-tries had average returns within 15 percent ofthe median price. For potatoes, where therange is rather wide, in only 8 countries outof 18 were average returns within 15 percentof the median price, while for 8 the differencewas greater than 30 percent.

Figure II-12 shows average returns to farm-ers for wheat in 1955/56 and 1956/57 in rela-tion to average import unit values c.i.f. In thelatter year, in only 2 countries (both exporters)out of 21 were average returns to farmers lowerthan the average world import unit value, whilein 11 countries they exceeded it by over 50percent. This group included two substantialexporting countries, while in one other largeexporting country average returns to farmersexceeded average world import unit values(c.i.f.) by nearly 20 percent. For most com-modities, however, most exporting countries felltoward the lower part of the price range,though, as noted above, there Wel:C strikingexceptions.

Although sorne countries appear to havegenerally high or generally low prices, thereis no great measure of consistency. For exam-ple, returns to farmers in the United StatesWere among the lowest for beef cattle andpigs, but were near the upper end of the scalefor milk and potatoes. Prices for wheat andmilk were particularly low in Australia, butabove average for eggs and particularly highfor potatoes. In the 'United Kingdom, pricesof wheat appear to have been relatively lowand of milk, eggs, and pigs relatively high.

It is notable that the price relationshipbetween commodities varied a good deal fromcountry to country. For instance, in Francethe price of eggs was about 9 times that ofwheat in 1954/55 ; thereafter the price of eggs

FIGURE 11-11. Average Returns to Farmers for Selected Commodities in Various Countries, 1956/57U.S. Dollars per 100 Kilograms

100

80 -

60 -50

40 -

30 -

8 -

6 ---

5

-e- - -0" "

fell and the price of wheat rose, so that by1956/57 eggs were only 7 times more costlytha,n wheat. In the -United Kingdom, on theother hand, although the price of eggs wasalso 9 times higher than wheat in 1954/55,the wheat price then fell and the egg pricerose, to become 10 times higher than wheat.

Many examples of similar discrepancies inprice movements within countries could easilybe found. The explanation for the,m lies inthe position of the individual country as animporter or exporter, its agricultural structureand the specific airns of the price support poli-cies, in particular whether the policy ahns atsupport for certain individual key commoditiesor for all commodities in general. For instance,in Italy great emphasis is laid on wheat prices,

Y =

-0- --c).

ker

A-- -0- -0- -0- . __©- -0--

45

A AustraliaBelgium

C Canada

DenmarkE Spain

F FranceGreece

Fl SwitzerlandI Italy1 Japan

United KingdomL NetherlandsM Poland

NorwayAustria

P PortugalR IrelandS SwedenT Turkey

United StatesFinland

W Western GermanyY YugoslaviaZ New Zealand

which were maintained at a high level despitegrowing domestic supplies and, eventually, theneed to dispose of subsidized exports. Thesame appears to be true of France, wherewheat prices stayed high while prices of othe,rcereals fell. In this conne,ction there appearto be some significant similarities betweenprice developments in the two major Europeanfood-importing countries, the 'United Kingdomand Western Germany. A major difference isthat in the latter country milk prices have beenrising steadily, while in the United Kingdomthere has been a downward trend since 1954/55.This may, however, merely reflect a movementtoward a more realistic price relationship formilk in both countries ; in the United Kingdomthe milk price was not only high by comparison

0 Importing countries 0-0 Eggsoo PigsGI Exporting countries O 0 Beef cattle

0-- VVheat

Potatoes0 0 Milk

O Sugar beets

20 -

10

Er/4 _

3 _

2

FIGURE 11-12. Wheat (All Grades) : Average Receipts by Farmers in Selected Countries, 1955/56 and1956/57, and Average World Unit Values of Exports and Imports, 1956/57

U.S. Dollars, per Metric Ton

Finland

Switzerland

Norway

Italy

Turkey

France

Greece

Spain

Yugoslavia

Germany, W.

Austria

Belgium

Japan

Poland

United Kingdom,.

Sweden

United States

Netherlands

Denmark

Australia'

Canada

-4-,

NOTE : Net exporting countries are in bold type'including receipts from deficiency payments. 'Data for 1954/55 and 1955/56.

with the world level but also high domestically,e.g., in 1953/54 tb.e *United Kingdom milk pricewas nearly 115 percent of that of wheat, whereasin Germany it was only just over 60 percent.In 1956/57 the relationship in the two countrieswas about 110 percent and SO percent, respec-tively. On the other hand, in both countriesbeef cattle prices have been rising, while wheatprices have shown a declining te,ndency. Thiswould be in line with the general developmentof the world agricultural situation. The figuresavailable, however, do not cover a long enoughperiod to show up significant long-term trends.

46

FARM INCOMES

Taking the more developed countries of theworld togetherthe only ones for which thereis adequate information about farm incomesthe decline in income in the last year has notbeen so drastic as might have been expectedfrom the difficulties in finding markets for agrowing volume of production. But there isa notable contrast between the countries whereproduction is mainly for domestic consumptionand those where a sizeable proportion goes forexport. In nearly all the exporting countries,

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

A Average world import unit value, c.i.f.

EMMIAverage receipts by farmers, 1955/56

Average world exports unit value, f.o.b. A

Average receipts by farmers, 1956/57

includ ng the Tinited States, farm incomes tend-ed to decline in spite of the extensive incomesupport measures built up over the last fewyears. In most importing or self-sufficientcountries, however, it appears that on thewhole government measures to support farmincomes were reasonably successful in Ger-many and the United Kingdom there waseven some rise at least as far as theabsolute level is concerned, though not bycomparison with incomes in other sectors of theeconomy. It is, of course, easier for a non-exporting country to maintain the level offarm income. But action taken by one countrytends to encroach upon the room for maneuverof other countries, and it is an open questionhow much longer income supports in generalcan continue to hold, since there are not manyunexplored possibilities left for further supportmeasures.

It is difficult to isolate any predominantcause for the movements in farm incomes, andthe effect of a change in prices on the prosperityof individual farmers varies a good deal accord-ing to the structure of agriculture in a parti-cular country. Experience in recent years hasbeen that total farm expenditure has risenfaster in percentage terms than total farmreceipts. Where expenditure is low in relationto receipts, however, the total increase of ex-penditure is often less than the total increaseuf receipts, and there has been some, increaseof net in.come. But where farm expenditureis high in relation to receipts, rises in costsmore easily offset expansion of gross income,and bring about stability or even reductionof net income at current prices, as has happen-ed in the United Kingdom in past years. Thisis another aspect of the difficulty, stressed inother parts of this report, of maintaining in-comes with.out increasing output.

Two other factors complicate the situation,namely changes in the number of farmerssharing the global net income, and changes inthe amount of non-farm income earned byfarmers. For example, in the United Statesboth factors combined to mitigate the effectof the long decline in global net farm incomeexperienced from 1951 to 1956.

Turning to the United States, gross agricul-tural incomes in constant (1947-49) dollars re-mained unchanged from 1956 to 1957 at 24,500million dollars, or 15 percent above the aver-age for 1947-49. For the last two or threeyears changes have been small in comparison

47

with the strong secular rise in evidence inearlier years. Farmers' realized net income in1957 was 11,500 million dollars, down a littleover 500 million dollars or 4 percent from1956. Even with marketings a little lower in1957 (30,000 million dollars) than in 1956(30,400 million dollars), realized gross farmincome remained unchanged at 34,400 millionowing to a substantial increase in governmentpayments to farmers. Farm production ex-penses, however, tended tu edge upward (from22,300 to 22,900 million dollars) causing theabove-mentioned decline in net income.

The income situation in 1958 depends onthe relative strength of several factors. Pricesreceived by farmers rose rapidly in the earlypart of 1958, but the average level in 1958may be much the same as in 1957. The volumeuf production and sales is likel3r to rise. Onthe other hand, expenses are continuing torise, but this may be offset by governmentpayments which are expected to be still largerin 1958 than in 1957. The chances are thatincome will be much the same or perhaps alittle higher in 1958 than in 1957.

In Ganada, agricultural income did not riseand was an important exception to the generaladvance in national income in 1957. Totalfarm cash income in the year is estimated at2,535 million dollars, about 5 percent less thanin 1956. Prices of goods purchased by farmers,.however, were again higher in 1957 and finalestimates will probably show that farmers' netincome was less than in 1956. Agriculturallabor income also showed a decline in the lastmonths of 1957 as compared with the sameperiod of 1956. On present indications, themain cause of the decline in incomes was afall in the volume of wheat production andin wheat prices, especially in the Prairie Pro-vinces. However, up to now, receipts havebeen calculated only on the basis of preliminaryaverage prices, which may be revised later.

The particular income situation of individualEuropean countries has depended on time na-tional pattern of agricultural production, thedegree of dependence on foreign markets, andthe harvest of the year. Sonie details forindividual countries are given below.

In Western Germany the volume of farmsales in 1957/58 was about 15 percent above1956/57. Receipts, including subsidies, roseconsiderably more. In spite of greater expensesthe cash balance (cash receipts minus currentexpenditure) was estimated to be 14 percent

above the preceding year. Preliminary estimat-es for the United Kingdom show that in 1957/58the previous falling trend of farm incomes wasreversed, net income rising by just under 10percent above 1956/57 in spite of a rise of 11million pounds sterling in expenses, which,however, was the smallest for many years.The most striking feature about the movementin farmers' net incomes in recent years is therise in support costs, which were 206 millionpounds in 1955/56, 240 million pounds in 1956/57,and 290 million pounds in 1957/58. This risehas occasioned concern to the government andhas led to a revision of support price levels.

In Denmark, however, where farmers' incomedepends largely on the development of exportmarkets, farmers' income has shrunk. Thevalue of total production in the agriculturalsector fell from about 7,200 million kroner toabout 6,900 million, although the volume ofproduction rose by nearly 10 percent. Thesales value of animal products declined by 2percent in 1957 as compared with 1950, whilethe voltune increased by 7 percent. There was,howe,ver, a partially compensating fall in ex-penses, and the net agricultural return (i.e.,including wages) fell only from 5.4 millionkroner to 5.2 million.

Farmers had a fairly favorable year in Franceas regards income,. Production was at a fairlyhigh level, except for wine ; prices of manyproducts tended to rise ; and farm stocks ofsome foodstuffs carried over from previousyears were reduced. Net income again rose,by 11 percent if receipts from liquidation ofstocks are taken into account, or by 2.5 percentif these are oinitted. The net product ofagriculture and forestry in Italy together rosefom 2,480,000 million lire in 1956 to 2,515,000million lire in 1957. FrOM the point of viewof the agricultura,1 industu only, there wa,s aslight increase in the volume of output, relativestability of prices, but a continuation of theprevious rising trend in expenses. This increaserepresents growing industrialization of agricul-ture, plus higher wage expenditure in spite ofa further decline in the number of a,gricultural'wage earners.

Both Australia and NOW Zealand have suf-fered from the attempts of other countries tomaintain farm incomes. In Australia, a fallof about S percent in the volume of productionIvas superimposed on adverse movements inexport prices, and net farm incomes fell bymore than 25 percent to the lowest level since

48

1948/49. In New Zealand, there was no suchfall in the volume of production; nevertheless,preliminary estimates show that the income ofthe agricultural industry has fallen by some10 percent, though the effect on farmers 1,vassomewhat mitigated by the distribution ofstabilization funds. The approaching exhaus-tion of the dairy fund, however, poses a difficultproblem.

Preliminary figures for Southern Rhodesiashow that the net income of European farmerswas about 9 percent lower in the year endingSeptember 1957 than in the previous year,which was a particularly favorable year.The volume and value of output showedvery little change, while total operatingexpenses continued their persistent rise, anincrea,se shared by all the major items, suchas wages, fertilizers, machinery expenses, andfeed.

In countries in the Soviet bloc, farm incomeson the whole seem to have risen. A change ingovernment policy resulted in increased mone-tary incentives being offered to agriculturalproducers and compulsory delivery quotas weredecreased during the past year. Consequently,there was a general increase in the value ofagricultural output reinforced by the effect of'good weather on the volume of production.

In Poland, the income of the agriculturalpopulation is reported to have risen by some,30 percent from its 1956 level of 32.6 millionzlotys, against a planned increase of about 22percent. Similarly, gross receipts of farmersin Hungary in 1957 were 14 percent abovethose of 1956, receipts from sales to the Statebeing 27 percent higher and from sales on thefree market 10 percent higher. Increased farmincomes are also reported from Eastern Ger-many, Romania, and Bulgaria.

CONSUMER PRICES

The upward trend of retail food prices con-tinued in 1957, although there were some in-dications that the efforts of governments tocontain such increases may have been rathermore successful than in 1956. Indices of themovements of retail food prices in 1957 areavailable for 89 countries. In 69, the indexrose to a greater or lesser extent, and in only20 was there stability or some decline. Nomore than six countries showed no rise inretail food prices in either 1956 or 1957. Whereprices fell in 1957 the decline was usually of

only 1 or 2 percent, though there were morepronounced falls in Viet-Nam (S percent),Denmark (5 percent), Ghana (4 percent) andthe Belgian Congo (3 percent). In only sevencountries in 1957, however (against 21 in 1956),was there a renewal of the rising trend of foodprices after stability or a decline in the previousyear.

Of the 62 countries where retail prices rosein both years, the rate of increase was slowerin 1957 than in 1956 in 20 cases (includingIndia, Taiwan, Southern Korea, Bolivia, Brazil,Paraguay, Cyprus, Iceland, and Sweden) andfaster in 25 countries (notably in Argentinawhere the index rose by 34 percent against 14percent in 1956, Colombia, Uruguay, Pakistan,Malaya, Egypt, French West Africa, and Spain).There was also a somewhat faster rise in retailfood prices than in 1956 in Canada, the UnitedStates, Ireland, Luxembourg, and the Nether-lands (Table II-16).

Food prices, on the whole, kept quite closelyin line with the movement of the general costof living. In 29 of the 84 countries for whichcomparable data are available, the cost of foodrose more, and in 37 countries less, than retailprices generally, but in most instances thedeviation was small, exceeding 2 percent inonly 12 countries. The faster increase in foodprices was pronounced in Argentina and Chile(9 percent divergence), Burma and Colombia(5 percent), Pakistan and Uruguay (4 percent).

49

Countries where food prices lagged substantiallybehind the general cost of living were : Braziland Denmark (7 percent), Ghana and Nicaragua(4 percent), New Zealand and Norway (3 percent).

From the analysis in Table II-16 there ap-pears to have been no striking differences inretail food price trends in the more and theless developed countries in that rather morethan three quarters of the countries in eacligroup showed a rise in prices during 1957.

In both groups of countries supply and de-mand factors were important. For example, theunfavorable effect of weather on supplies offruit and vegetables, and the smaller outputof beef and pork in the United States contribut-ed to the continuing rise of retail food pricesin North America, which amounted to 3 per-cent in the United States and 4 percent inCallada. In Japan, the smaller wheat andbarley crops appear to have contributed to arise of 4 percent in the retail food price indexfollowing two years of decline. Reduced sup-plies from smaller crops also affected pricelevels in, e.g., Malaya, Pakistan, and Colombia.

In Australia, Ne-w Zealand, and Denmark,where domestic prices are closely linked toexport prices, the effects of the acute surplussituation developing in the dairy sector duringthe past year were clearly visible. In all threecountries a continued upward trend of the costof food during the last six years was revers-ed, and in Denmark retail food prices dropped

TABLE II-16. MOVEMENT OF RETAIL POOD PRICE ÍNDICES IN 057 IN COMPARISON WITH I956IN MORE AND IN LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

ITEMTotal

numberof

countries

Of whichno risein 1956

Of whichalso arise in

1956

Rise in 1957 compared with 'risein 1956

Slowerthan

Ab outthe

Fasterthan

1950 same 1956

Number of countriesAll countries

Rise in 1957 69 7 69 20 17 25

No rise in 1957 20 6 14

Less developed countries

..Rise, in 1957 50 7 43 14 17 12

No rise in 1957 15 6 9

More developed countries

Rise in 1957 19 19 6 13

No rise in 1957 5

by as much as 5 percent. It is now:however,rather rare to encounter such a reaction to asurplus situation. In recent months a numberof Western European governments, faced withan oversupply of milk and milk products, andtrying to steer a course between the conflict-ing objectives of supporting farm. prices andincomes, and avoiding still higher consumerprices likely to reduce consumption, have chosendifferent solutions.

Reductions in consumer prices for butter andcheese in the Netherlands and for butter inSweden (where it a,pplies only during the periodof peak production) were decided on in thespring of 1958 in order to stimulate consump-tion and to reduce the riSIC of surpluses. InSweden the cost is largely to be carried byproducers, while in the Netherlands, -where con-sumption has in consequence increased sharply,the lower prices involve a State subsidy. InSwitzerland, too, increasing subsidies cushionthe impact on producers of lower consumer.prices, and additional funds may have to bevoted for this purpose. In Germany, on theother hand, higher prices, partly subsidized,have led to larger milk deliveries by farmersand some increase in distribution costs hasbeen allowed. Consumer subsidies, however,are to be abolished under a policy of "trueprices" adopted in late 1957, and the con-sumer will thus have to carry the whole pricein crease.

Similar "true price" policies were also adopt-ed in France in the autumn of 1957 and, toa limited extent, in Norway in March 1958.In France and Germany this policy involvedthe removal of a bread subsidy. In Norwayfood prices had been maintained fairly stableduring 1957 as a result of higher subsidy pay-ments, but in 1958 subsidies are to be reduc-ed from 800 million kroner to about 500 millionkroner. In all three countries the result is amore or less pronounced rise in the cost offood, and any subsequent downward adjust-ments of food prices as a result of decliningdemand would be difficult because of farmprice and income guarantees.

In contrast to higher-income countries largersupplies from domestic output or imports stillappear to be readily reflected in consumerprices in other parts of the world. For example,larger wheat crops in Portugal, Syria, Turkey,and Yugoslavia helped to slow down the risein food prices in 1957. Similarly, larger sup-plies from both domestic output and imports,

50

i nclu ding those under the surplus disposalprogram, led to a reversal of the upward pricetrend in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Vene-zuela, and to a continuation of the downwardtrend in food prices in Ecuador, Honduras,Nicaragua, and Panama. In Brazil, the risein food prices declined to 12 percent in 1957from 23 percent in 1956, and compared withan increase of 19 percent in the general costof living. This appears largely the result ofconsiderable imports of wheat and dairy productsunder the surplus disposal program, though thedecline in foreign exchange earnings and theslowing down of general economic developmentis likely to have reduced demand.

Factors influencing food demand, in particularthe magnitude of development spending andthe wage policy, and all measures directly af-fecting food prices, such as the discontinuationof consumer subsidies or the control of retailprices, play an important part in the courseof food prices. For example, the sharp risein food prices in 1957 in Argentina and Uruguayof 34 and 17 percent, respectively, was largelythe result of relaxations in food price controls,discontinuations or reductions in consumer sub-sidies and simultaneous wage adjustments, in-creasing the pressure, of demand at a timewhen supplies were restricted to some extentby efforts to expand exports.

Another important factor influencing retailfood prices, particularly in the MOIT develop-ed countries, is the continuing rise in distribu-tion margins, mainly as a result of higher costsand more elaborate processing and distributionservices. For example, in the United States,the only country where detailed estimates ofdistribution costs are regularly published, therewas a rise from 1956 to 1957 of 35 dollars inthe cost of the so-called "farm food marketbasket." Only 10 dollars, however, represent-ed the increased farm value of food, resultinglargely from the temporary shortages of fruit,vegetables, and meat, while 25 dollars represent-ed the increase in the farm/retail spread. It-would be valuable if similar statistics werecompiled regularly in other countries. In Swedenretail food stores announced in early 1958that they would reduce by 5 percent the retailprices of over 2,000 food items because ofcontinuous improvement in the efficiency ofthe wholesale and retail trade. But this. ap-pears to be an isolated case.

On the whole, there has been little regularityin food price developments in underdeveloped

countries in recent years. Their level dependsto a great extent on unpredictable factors,such as the size of the crop and, in deficitcountries, on foreign exchange earnings, as wellas on the adequacy and timing of anti-infla-tionary policies and measures. But the increas-ing reliance in underdeveloped countries onfood imports under the special arrangementsof the surplus disposal programs as a meansof counteracting emergency situations, as wellas to build up buffer stocks, and perhaps alsomore adequate and consistently applied foodprice policies, constitute stabilizing factors ofsteadily increasing importance.

In the more developed countries there arestrong underlying factors tending towardhigher food prices, especially the growingcomprehensiveness and complexity of farm priceand income supports, and the steadily mount-ing cost of food distribution. While produc-tivity in agriculture and in the distributivetrades has increased rapidly, these advancesdo not appear to have been passed on to theconsumer to any substantial e,xtent. The forcestending to drive prices up are still strong andit would seem premature to assume that aperiod of greater stability of consumer pricesin the more developed countries is yet in sight.

FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL PROB-LE1VIS AND POLICIES IN 1957158

The problems of food and agriculture andthe policies adopted to meet them in the moreindustrialized countries and in the economicallyless developed countries of the world, respec-tively, continued to diverge in 1957/58. In theeconomically more advanced countries the dif-ficulties were increasingly those of surplus. Inthe less developed countries, on the other hand,food shortages persisted and in some instancesbecame more acute despite efforts to expandproduction. Some countries had to increasetheir food imports and in some there was asharp rise in food prices. The reasons for thisdichotomy are increasingly recognized, but itmay be useful to review them briefly beforediscussing the main food and agriculturalproblems and policy developments in each re-gion of the world.

In the more industrialized countries, whereincomes and consumption levels are alreadyfairly high, further increases in income leadto relativel3r small increases in the demand forfood and other agricultural products. More-

51

over, much of the increase in demand whichdoes occur is absorbed by more elaborateprocessing or distribution services, and only arelatively small part is transferred back asincreased effective demand at the farm level.The relatively high cost of food to consumersas a result of widening marketing costs andprice supports may be presumed to limit thevolume of consumption and in some casesappears to have led to an actual decline. Onthe other hand, the i'mproved agriculturalmethods now widely adopted in these coun-tries, aided by the greater financial stabilityof agriculture as a result of price supports,have led to a marked increase in production,and one which could be readily stepped upfurther if markets were available. Starting inNorth America, problems of agricultural sur-plus are spreading to more and more of theeconomically developed countries.

The slow growth of demand in the industrial-ized countries and the technical possibilitiesof readily expanding their domestic productionof certain commodities naturally affect notonly the farmers in the countries themselves,but also those in other countries, at all stagesof economic development, who are dependenton agricultural exports to the industrializedcountries. The effect is all the more markedbecause of the slow growth of population insome of the traditional food-importing coun-tries. For some commodities indeed the marketfor imports in these countries is tending toshrink. This applies mainly to commoditieswhere production in the importing countriesthemselves is rising more rapidly than demand(e.g., pig meat and milk products), where highconsumer prices tend to limit demand (e.g.,milk and meat), where the market is encroach-ed on by substitutes (e.g., rayon and cottonmargarine and butter), or where consumptionlevels tend to decline above a certain incomelevel (e.g., bread grains and potatoes). How-ever, even for commodities which do not haveto meet competition from domestic production(either agricultural or synthetic) in the indus-trialized countries (e.g., coffee), the relativelyslow growth of demand means that anythingmore timan a limited increase in exportablesupplies may lead to a sharp fall in pricesin world markets, or an accumulation of surplusstocks.

By far the greater part of the agriculturalproduction in the less developed countries,however, is not for export but for consumption

within the country, and here the situation isgenerally very different. At the low incomeand consumption levels in these countries evensmall improvements in national incomes result-ing from their intensified development programslead to sharp rises in th.e per caput demandfor agricultural products. These are superim-posed upon the rising demand due to theirincreasingly rapid population growths, as deathrates decline with no decline in birth rates.But the often primitive' methods of agriculture,the lack of funds to finance more rapid agri-cultural expansion coupled with recent falls inexport prices, the sometimes archaic systemsof land tenure, and the inadequate marketingfacilities in many of these countries, all makeit difficult to step up the flow of supplies tomatch this two-fold growth of demand. Inmany cases the consumption level of the farm-ers themselves is so low that they tend toconsume more of their own produce once theirimmediate need for cash is met, rather thansell it 01.1 the unarket. Moreover, experiencehas taught the farmer that even in rapidlyexpanding markets a temporary or local excessof supplies can lead to a heavy fall in pricesif there is no effective system of price supportor no adequate public storage facilities. Allthese factors combine to imped.e an orderlyexpansion in the supplies marketed to matchthe rapid growth of demand, and the resultis frequent local or national food shortageswith rising or sharply fluctuating prices.

Typical of the growing realization in manyless developed countries of the importance ofa faster expansion of agricultural production,and especially the importance of the suppliesreaching urban markets to match the rapidgrowth of demand, was the statement of theIndian Minister of Industry, Shri ManubhaiShah to the ECAFE Conference at KualaLumpur in March 1.95S

"The one cardinal lesson which we .inthe region will have to remember is thatagricultural production cannot be relegat-ed to the second place. Agriculture willhave to be vitalized and a greater senseof ,urgency imparted to the need to maxi-mizo agricultural output."

The above paragraphs attempt to crystalizethe essential differences between the situationsin the more and in the less economically develop-ed groups of countries, but there are, of course,all gradations between countries where income

62

levels are highest and those where incomesare very low.

While the basic difficulties probably arisefrom the fact that agricultural production canbe expanded most rapidly in the countrieswhere the growth of demand is slowest, andvice versa, they have been increased by thesocial problems and policies of the two groupsof countries. In the industrialized countriesfarm incomes have tended to fall behind thosein other occupations. To correct this, govern-ments have sometimes maintained or evenincreased support prices after demand wassatisfied, or have used other methods of enhanc-ing farm incomes which have tended to stim-ulate further production. Sometimes thesepolicies have been continued from the periodof warthne and postwar shortage and havebecome so much a part of the agriculturalscene that they are difficult to change.

In less developed countries, on the otherhand, the more general tendency has been tocontrol farm prices at a rather low level inorder to protect urban consumers and as ameasure against inflation. Nor, as a rule, arethere adequate funds available to raise farmincomes substantially by subsidies or othermeans which do not affect price levels. Insome cases where prices in less developedcountries have been raised to stimulate pro-duction time results have been disappointing,perhaps because the increase h.as failed toreach the cultivator owing to the system ofland tenure or of deficiencies of the market-ing system. But there are other cases wherehigher incentive prices have resulted in a mark-ed production response, sometimes indeed toan embarrassing degree.

In practice, however, the agricultural priceand income policies of the two groups of coun-tries often appear to have increased the inher-ent difficulties of the situation. High pricesin the countries where supplies were overabun-dant have tended to stimulate production and'restrain consumption. Conversely, low pricesin countries where supplies were inadequatehave tended to discourage production and stim-ulate consumption. Yet, given the economicand social conditions in the two groups ofcountries, it is not easy to see how these fur-ther difficulties could have been avoided, atleast within a national framework.

The obvious and most attractive solution tothe paradox of excess supplies in the better-fed countries side by side with inadequate

supplies in the poorer countries, even in rela-tion to their low level of effective demand, is,of course, to export food from the one to theother. This has, in fact, been done on a sub-stantial scale, notably by the United States,where, as is well known, a number of methodsof overcoming the difficulties of payment havebeen devised. In this way the worst effectsof shortages, arising both from crop failuresand from expanded demand, have often beenavoided. Recent developments on this sirle arediscussed more fully in the section on interna-tional trade.

But, however valuable against emergencies, itis debatable whether this can be consideredmore than a partial solution of the problem.Commercial food imports on an adequate scalewould overstrain the currency resources of mostof the less developed countries to an extent thatwould badly hamper their general economicdevelopment. Shipments under special terms,whatever the safeguards, inevitably cause anx-ieties and difficulties to other exporters, whoas a rule are not strong enough economicallyto match the special terms offered elsewhere,and who fear that as a result of such salestheir own export outlets will fail to grow oreven contract. More fundamental still, fromthe point of view of the less developed countries,is the possible impact of such imports on theirOW11 agricultural development unless their do-mestic markets are reasonably well organized.

If, as is sometimes the case, farm prices ofcereals and other basic commodities are allow-ed to fall to unprofitable levels immediatelyafter the harvest or in years of heavy crops,farmers have little incentive to increase theirproductio'n for the market to meet the grow-ing urban demand, especially if prices are keptdown when any shortage occurs by importsunder special terms. There is then a dangerthat a bare minimum will be produced for themarket, that much of the country's agriculturewill remain at a primitive subsistence stage,and that the whole economic development willbe unbalanced.

If, however, some measure of domestic pricestability is maintained, e.g., by market opera-tions by public authorities to support pricesduring the post-harvest glut and to carry oversurpluses from good harvests against futureshortages, the transition from a subsistence toa market agriculture will be eased, and condi-'tions will be more favorable for an expand-ing production for the market to 'meet the

53

growing demand. In such circumstances a morebalanced development of agriculture and indus-try might be expected, and increased importswhen domestic supplies were inadequate wouldbe unlikely to discourage production for themarket.

The main developments in agricultural poli-cies in 1957/58 are reviewed below against thisbroadly sketched general background. In theeconomically more advanced countries of NorthAmerica and Western Europe there have beenrelatively few major policy changes during theyear, but increasingly serious consideration isbeing given to a more fundamental approachto the problem of agricultural surpluses. InWestern Europe the problems and reorganiza-tions arising in agriculture as a result of theestablishment of the Common Market and thenegotiations for a wider free trade area havealso been a major topic of interest, and onelikely to become increasingly important. Prelimi-nary discussions on similar integration schemeswere also held in Latin America, and are pro-posed on a somewhat informal basis and withmore lhnited objectives in the Far East.

On the whole, the more dramatic changesduring the year have occurred in the Coinmunistgroup of countries, notably in the U.S.S.R.,where increased efforts involving sharp changesin policy are being made to catch up withthe increased demand for food and other agri-cultural products stemming from the longperiod of priority to heavy industries.

In many ,underdeveloped countries of LatinAmerica, Southeast Asia, the Near East, andAfrica, badly needed measures for agriculturalexpansion and for general development havebeen hampered by shortages of public invest-ment funds and foreign currency, both largelystemming from the decline in real prices and earn-ings from primary exports. Nevertheless, vig-orous efforts are being made to maintain thetempo of agricultural development, and in nota few countries an increased share of the invest-ment funds available ar6 being devoted toagriculture.

North America

In view of the importance of the agriculturalsituation in North America to producers inother parts of the world, recent developmentsin this region are reviewed rather fully below,even though actual changes in policies in thepast year have been limited, apart from a major

extension and revision of the Canadian pricesupport system.

In the "United States, agricultural policies inrecent years have had two main objectiveson the one hand, to avoid a continuing excessof production over current consumption, whilereducing accumulated surpluses by intensifieddisposal operations and, on the other, to pre-vent any further decline in farm incomes. Itwas already evident in 1956/57 that these aimsWO l'C being achieved only .to a limited extent,more especially on the production side whereacreage restrictions and the Soil Bank provedineffective in restraining output.

Altogether 27.8 million acres (11.25 million hec-tares) 2.1.3 million (8.62 million hectares)in the Acreage and 6.5 million (2.63 millionhectares) in the Conservation Reserve weretaken out of production of the six basic cropsunder these programs in 1957. The totalacreage of all crops harvested, at 319 millionacres (129 million hectares),5 however, was halfa million acres (202,000 hectares) more thanthe year before because of increased plantingsof other crops, mainly coarse grains other thanmaize. Moreover, the acreage reductions oc-curred mainly in drought areas and on poorsoils, while the remaining crops were cultivat-ed more intensively. As a result, the total ofall crops harvested in 1957 was 6 percentabove the 1947-49 average and equaled therecord crops of 1948 and 1956. A comparisonof the a.creages and tonnages harvested of eachof the basic crops in 1956 and 1957 is givenbelow.

United States.: Acreages and Tonnages of AS'ix BasicCrops Harvested in 1957 in Comparison with 1956

While fairly substantial reductions were madein the output of tobacco, cotton, and rice, thefall in production of maize and wheat, the twocommodities for which surplus stocks arelargest, is seen to have been modest. The costof the whole program for the year amounted

,This area, however, is about 123 rnillion acres 'Funds a,vailable for the 1957/58 crop have beenraised by Congress to 750 million dollars.less than the 1946-55 average.

54

to over 700 millions dollar : some 614 milliondollars for acreage agreements and 108 millionfor conservation reserve contracts. The latterare estimated to cost another 60 million dollarsbefore their expiry. In 1958, in spite of in-creased participation in the Soil Bank program,necessitating the appropriation of additionalfunds,a total crop production is expected tobe still higher than in 1957 and to reach anew record level.

The lack of success of agricultural produc-tion policies was recognized in the President'sFarm Message in early 1958: "... key problemsremain unsolved. Rising production costs con-tinue to limit farm income ... acreage controlshave failed to bring agricultural productioninto line ... and unrealistic price support laws... result ... in loss of markets."

In these circumstances the Administrationsubmitted in January 1958 a new farm programto Congress proposing a number of majorchanges in farm legislation, including

The Conservation Reserve Program ofthe Soil Bank should be strengthened,and the Acreage Reserve Program ter-minated after the 1958 crop.Authority should be given to the Sec-retary of Agriculture to increase acre-age allotments for cotton, wheat, rice,groundnuts, and tobacco by up to 50percent above the levels determined byexisting formulas.Acreage allotment for maize should beeliminated.The automatic increase of price sup-ports as soon as surpluses are reducedprovided for in existing legiSlationtime so-called Escalator Clause shouldbe abolished.The range of mandatory price supports,now between 75 and 90 percent ofparity, should be widened to a rangeof from 60 to 90 percent. (It maybe recalled that the flexible price sup-port, as against the previous rigid 90percent support, was first fully imple-mented with the 1956 crop.)Price support for cotton should bebased on the average quality of the cropinstead of the low grade as prescribedin the present law.

Crop area .Produc-tion

. . . Percent change. . .

Wheat, - 12.3 - 5.7Maize - 3.9 - 1.5Cotton - 13.2 - 17.6Tobacco - 17.8 - 22.9Rice - 14.6 - 12.8Groundnuts - 12.3 - 6.3

The evident intention of these proposals wasto make possible further reductions in the levelof support prices (points 4, 5, and 6), to placeless reliance on acreage restrictions which canbe circumvented to a considerable extent bymore intensive cultivation (points 2 and 3),and to limit the rather ineffective expenditureson reducing the acreage under the six basiccrops (point 1). They thus tend toward thegradual re-establishment of a free domesticmarket for agricultural products, where supplyand demand would largely regulate prices andoutput. This approach implicitly assumes thatthose who could not farm profitably undersuch conditions would be absorbed in othersectors of the economy. These proposals areclearly controversial and their ultimate fate isuncertain at the time of writing.

Congress, itself unable to agree on an im-mediately acceptable farm policy, adopted astop-gap bill freezing support prices for thecurrent crop year at their 1957 level, i.e., tem-porarily withdrawing the discretionary powersfrom the Secretary of Agriculture to set supportlevels as low as 75 percent of parity, a discre-tion already exercised in the case of maize andmilk. The President, however, vetoed theIt may be, therefore, that no major change inpolicy will emerge for the time being.

The United States Congress too is lookingfor new ways to cope with a situation whichobviously needs to be remedied. A Subcom-mittee of the Joint Economic Comittee of bothhouses of Congress invited 60 experts fromuniversities, government and farm organiza-tions to submit proposals on a "Policy forCommercial Agriculture." 7 Following these stud-ies the Subcommittee concluded that four mainlines of attack on the complex farm problemwere necessary : (1) expanding outlets forfarm products as a result of increased industrialuses, new crops, greater exports and increas-ed domestic demand through better marketing(2) measures to assist the normal flow of farmpeople into other occupations (developing localnon-farm projects, education, industrial train-ing) ; (3) assisting farm families in makingadjustments (credit, better co-ordination of agen-cies now serving agriculture) ; (4) income pro-grams for commercial agriculture (production

'Joint Economic Committee, Policy for Com-mercial Agriculture, its 1?elations to Econontic Growthand Stability, Papers submitted to the Subcom-mittee on Agricultural Policy. Washington, 22Nov. 1957. -

55

control through the restriction of quantitiessold with negotiability of quotas, two-pricesystems for -wheat and cotton, subsidizeddomestic food consumption, direct incomesupport payments to farmers, etc).8 No stepshave been taken so far to translate thes& sug-gestions into legislation, but they suggest thatthe thinking of Congress differs considerablyfrom that of the Administration.

While there appears to be some trend inthe United States, or at least in the thinkingof the Administration, toward greater relianceon the mechanism of the free market in agri-culture, the recent tendency in Callada appearsto be toward a larger measure of support.The new Conservative goverrunent establishedin March 1958 a permanent price supportscheme for basic products enacted in the "Agri-cultural Stabilization Act." This supersededthe "Agricultural Price Support Act" of 1946,under which only ad hoc support had beenprovided for, the coverage and level of pricesupport being left largely to the discretion ofthe Administration. The new Act guaranteesfor a number of important agricultural products(cattle, pigs, sh.eep, butter, cheese, eggs, wooland also for wheat, oats, and barley grownoutside the Prairie Provinces) a minimum pricenot less than 80 percent of the average pricein the last ten years. The original proposalof the government was for a guaranteed mini-mum based on average prices during the pre-vious three years, which would have given lessstability to farmers but greater flexibility tothe system.

There is no formula for fixing the actuallevel of the guaranteed price in any year,though it is stipulated that "the Governor inCouncil shall be guided by the estimated aver-age cost of production of the commodity andby such other factors as the Governor in Councilconsiders to be relevant." If support levelswere maintained at a stable percentage of themoving average prices a continued downwardtrend of market prices would entail a contin-ued decline in support levels, and vice versa,thus leading to production adjustments. This,indeed, seems to have been the basic thoughtbehind the scheme as no provision is madefor regulating directly the level of production.However, as there is no upper lirnit to thepercentage of the moving average prices at

8Ibid. Report of the Subcommittee on A.gricul-tural Policy to the joint Economic Committee,Washington, 10 Feb. 1958.

which the su.pport price may be fixed, theeffect may in practice be considerably modified.Thus, the first su.pport prices established areat 84 percent of the ten-year moving averagefor pi.gs, 107 percent for butter and 110 per-cent for wool. The latter is to be implement-ed by a deficiency payment schente similar tothat in the United States. The reserve fundsavailable for farm price supports have beenincreased from 200 to 250 million Canadiandollars. In the current fiscal year actual ex-penditures are expected to increase by about5 million dollars.

Western Europe

Althongh the poblem is on a much smallerscale than in North America, agricultural poli-cies in many countries of Western Europe areincreasingly influenced by excess production,notably of milk and butter, and to a lesserextent of eggs, pig meat and wheat. The aimis not to reduce over-all production, but ratherto divert it toward commodities for whichmarket prospects are more favorable. At thesame time, efforts are being made to preventfarm incomes falling further behind those inother occupations, partly by measures of pricesupport, including the now common practiceof direct or indirect subsidies on marginalexports to maintain domestic price levels, butincreasingly by measures to encourage the ef-ficiency of agricultural production and to reducecosts per unit of output. In the less wealthycountries of the region, however, where thedefnand for foodstuffs is still rising appreciablywith rising incomes, policies aim at expaiadingproduction.

The United Kingdom affords a clear exampleof measures aimed at adjusting the pattern ofproduction more closely to demand, and of thedifficulty of doing so without lowering farmincomes. At the February 1958 price reviewthe government decided to reduce the guaran-teed prices of milk, pigs, and eggs, the produc-tion of which has been expanding at a substan-tial cost in imported feed., and the demandfor which is fully satisfied by the domesticoutput together with less expensive importedsupplies. On the other hand, beef productionwill be further encouraged by a higher guaran-teed price. The government, recognizing thatthese price' changes will create difficulties formany small farmers, has promised to find other

56

ways of helping them by direct grants outsidethe price system.

Exporting countries are having to modifytheir traditional policies as a result of increas-ing economic difficulties. In Denmark, in par-ticular, the yield oil agricultural investment isexpected to fall to 0.5 percent in the 1958 cropyear as a result of unfavorable prices and ris-ing costs, compared with 4.2 percent in 1956/57and a peak. of 9 percent in the period 1949-53.A government bill before Parliament at thetime of writing provides for the purchase ofbread grains at a fixed minimum price in 1959as well as for price equalization duties on im-ported feed grains at a sliding scale, geared tothe price of pig meat in order to keep thepresent feed/pig price ratio as constant aspossible. The Minister of Agriculture will beauthorized for the next three years to regulatethe sale of agricultural products at home andabroad, and to fix taxes On both d.omestic andexport sales at rates varying by product andmarkets. Assisted by a council from agricul-ture, commerce, and industry the Minister willco-ordinate exports of agricultural products.With the revenues from the new sales tax afund will be built up to foster agriculturalexports by a publicity campaign and by estab-lishing new marketing agencies abroad ; thefund is to be initiated by a government creditof 100 million kroner (14.5 million U.S. dollars).

Among the countries subsidizing exports ofsurplus butter, Austria has decided to buildfactories for dried milk, while Finland hasreduced subsidies on concentrated feedingstuffs,restricted feed imports, and established a stock-piling program. Crop production, particularlybread grains, is to be encouraged at theexpense of livestock production. Importing coun-tries too are concerned at what has been calledthe "white flood" of milk. In Western Ger-many a subsidy on milk delivered to dairieshas increased deliveries (largely at the expenseof farm consumption and animal feeding) tosuch an extent that the total subsidy of 400million deutsche mark will not suffice unlessit is restricted to higher quality milk. InBelgium the government has temporarily per-mitted the producer price to fall.

Considerations of farm incomes and costs,however, militate against such measures, andin the Nettuniands, in spite of the crisis in theinternational butter market, the governmenthas felt obliged to increase the guaranteedproducer price for milk. But it has also limit-

ed the amount of milk for whi.ch the price isguaranteed, as was done earlier in the UnitedKingdom for milk and in France for wheat.Higher farm prices for milk and butter havealso been established in France and Finland,though the latter country still niaintainssubsidy on butter to encourage consumption.

In France the third modernization plan aimsat a further 20 percent increase in agriculturaloutput between 1957 and 1961, and foreseesfurther mechanization at the rate of 100,000tractors per year. A new pricing policy isdesigned to limit further expansion of wheatproduction, in view of export difficulties, andto encourage beef and eggs through highersupport prices for as long as four years ahead.

In Italy a 11.01V program of expanding foragecrops to Support the growing livestock industryhas been announced by the Minister of Agri-culture. Price policies introduced last year alsoaim at securing a better balance between theoutput of soft wheat, in surplus supply, and ofdurum wheat of which there is still a deficit.A number of long-term programs are in opera-tion to increase agricultural productivity, e.g.,by subsidies for land reclamation.

These latter policies reflect the growing de-mand for livestock products in Franee andItaly. In countries at a lower level of nationalincome the gradual rise in purchasing powerand increased demand for these and other agri-cultural products is reflected in recent policies.Yugoslavia's new live-year plan calls for a largeincrease in livestock production, and in thatcountry as in Spain, Portugal, and Greece alarger sh.are of public investment is to be di-rected toward agriculture.

Measures to increase agricultural productivity,however, are most developed in the more in-dustrialized countries of Western Europe wherenational incomes and food consumption arealready high, and where further rises in incomelead to only a moderate increase in demand.This leads to difficulties since increased agri-cultural productivity usually implies a largeroutput as well, even in countries Where theagricultural labor force is declining rapidly.This is notably the case in Sweden wherethere are doubts about the possibility of keep-ing agricultural income,s at the desire,d level,in spite of active measures to rationalize thefarm structure and increase productive efficiency,since there is little room for any fuither ex-pansion of the domestic market. Nevertheless,policies to improve the competitive efficiency

57

of agriculture and to reduce costs are beingmaintained, e.g., in Western Germany and theUnited Kingdom, and indeed continue largelyof their own momentum. For, with little like-lihood of higher agricultural prices, there isother means of maintaining farm incomes inthe face of rising costs.

Although the inauguration of the EuropeanCommon Market at the beginning of 1958 andthe discussions around a free trade area hadno direct bearing on agricultural policies in1957/58, their expected influence is becomingincreasingly important.9 During 1958 the sixcountries of the Common Market will beginWOrking out common agricultural policies. Atleast during the first phase of the applicationof the Rome treaty these policies are likelyto be both protectionist and directed. Themarkets of th.e principal agricultural productsproduced in the area will probably be control-led by marketing organizations, while the var-ious protective tariffs now imposed by thesecountries will be progressively brought to oneuniform level for the area as a whole. Atthe end of the transition period, agriculturalproducts will move freely within the CommonMarket area, though for some of them this islikely to take place under the guidance ofa marketing organization. The co-ordinationof agricultural production policies which thisimplies seems likely to lead to an increasedoutput of certain commodities within the Com-mcni Market arca, and probably to a reduceddemand for imports of these products fromoutside.

The negotiations still in progress for a widerfree trade area, related to the Common Mar-ket area, have revealed a number of difficultproblems. The United Kingdom and someother industrial countries want to exclude agri-cultural and horticultural products froin thefree trading .arrangements. Denmark, on theother hand, is primarily interested in havingsuch products included and in having boththe Common Market area and the United King-dom as export outlets. Spain, Greece, Turkey,Ireland and some other countries would liketo have free inarkets in other countries for

'The likely impact of the European CommonMarket on agriculture is discussed in a special ar-ticle in the FAO Monthly Bulletin, of AgricultztralEconomics and Statistics, April 1958, and in Com-modity Series Bulletin No. 29, FAO, Rome, 1957.Reprints are available upon request.

th.eir agricultural products, but need protectionand possibly aid for their less developed in-dustries.

Australia and New ZealandThe near saturation of the market and S1OW

growth of demand for certain agricultural prod-ucts in the -United Kingdom and other tradi-tional importing countries of Western Europe,and the increasing competition for these outlets,is fraught with no less serious consequencesfor Australia and New Zealand than for theagricultural exporting countries of Western Eu-rope. In November 1957 NOW Zealand heldthe first of what will be annual confrontationmeetings with the 'United Kingdom. A NewZealand request for restricted quantities orhigher import duties on competing importsfrom non-Commonwealth countries was unsuc-cessful. Nevertheless, the institution of suchannual talks may well be an important devel-opment. The request of New Zealand to the'United Kingdom to apply anti-dumping dutiesto subsidized butter exports from certain coun-tries is discussed below. Meanthne, paymentdifficulties, arising from low agricultural exportprices, led to th.e reintroduction by New Zea-land of comprehensive import restrictions inJanuary 1958.

One problem facing New Zealand which maylead to lower farm incomes is the prospectiveexhaustion of the dairy products stabilizationfund. Under present arrangements the pay-ment price to farmers cannot fall by more than5 percent below that of the previous year. ASa result of the heavy payments necessitated bythe low international price of dairy products thereserve, which stood at some 25 million poundsat the beginning of .1956/57, will be virtuallyexhausted by the end of the 1957/58 season.

Both Australia and NOW Zealand are attempt-ing to meet their export difficulties by furtherincreasing their already high level of produc-tivity. For example, in Australia there has beendiscussion concerning a development bank, oneof whose functions would be to provide farmfinance. Both countries are also vigorouslyseeking new markets, particularly in Asia 'whereslowly rising incomes are leading to a markedincrease in the demand for agricultural products.This new trend is exemplified by a three-yeartrade agreement signed in the second half of1957 between Australia and Japan, now AILS-tralia's second largest export market, which

58

covered among other things wool, wheat, bar-ley, and sugar.

Latin America

Although the financial and economic difficul-ties of some countries of the region in 1957/58,resulting from the fall in prices of some ofthe main export commodities (coffee, meat,copper), reduced current rates of agri culturalinvestment, considerable attention was stillgiven to the improvement of agriculture. InMexico, however, where conditions were rela-tively prosperous, the funds available for farmcredit Were increased 18 percent to 104 millionhillars, while some 12 million dollars vere as-signed to price supports to producers and tosubsidies on basic commodities for consumers.In this country about one eighth of the totalfederal budget is now devoted to agricultural,livestock, and forestry development.

Chile has adopted a new agricultural pricepolicy in order to encourage production, whichhad sh.own very little progress for some yearsin spite of growing requirements. Prices ofNI,heat, rice, sunflowerseed, and some otherproducts have been decontrolled and, as a re-sult, .have risen to some 40 percent above theprevious year's level. Agricultural machinery,fertilizers, and other production requisites havebeen exempted from restrictions on bank credits.Mention may also be made of the establish-ment of a new Ministry of Development and:Production in Ecuador for the better co-ordina-tion of agricultural development projects, andof a new government decree in Colombia toaccelerate agricultural development which pro-vides among other things for progressive taxeson tmcultivated land. Colombia i.s also reor-ganizing its system of farm credit and takingsteps to increase the funds available for thispurpose from private banks. In Venezuela80111C 14 million 'U.S. dollars are being madeavailable for replanting and improving coffeeplantations and some 4 million dollars todevelop high-quality cacao production. Specialloans will be granted to coffee and cacao pro-ducers.

On the other hand, some progress has beenmade in Argentina in revising the price struc-ture which in the pa,st has hampered agricul-tu.ral production. The planted acreage andlivestock population increased rapidly when itwas hoped that there would be scope forlarger earnings in a free market. In fact, how-

ever, exports are still subject to an exchangerato of 18 pesos to the dollar, while purchasesof machinery and equipment have to be madeat the free rate, ranging from 34 to 47 pesosto the dollar in the past two years. Moreattractive picos for grains and oilseeds, how-ever, llave brought about a considerable shiftfrom pasture to crop cultivation, and manycattle ra,isers have disposed of their stock andare sowing flax, sunflower, and other crops.Nevertheless, in an attempt to correlate betterthe prices of the various agricultural productsand to enable producers to maintain their pur-chasing power on the same levels as otherproducing sections of the economy, the govern-anent announced early in 1958 the minimumproducers' prices of grains for the, 1958/59 crops,Nvhich, for the first ti.1110 in this country, havebeen calculated by the parity index system.

A Similar situation has arisen in Uruguaywhere the subsidized wheat-growing programhas led to a considerable shift front pastureto wheat. Greater returns from sheep breed-ing and -wool exports and a ceiling On eattleprices has discouraged cattle improvement andle,d to extensive smuggling of cattle across theborder. As a result of the f.all in livestocknumbers and slaughterings, two uf the largestmeat-packing plants decided to close down atthe end of 1057, thus adding to the socialand economic difficulties of recent years.

The proposed COMM011 regional market, forLatin America was discussed at several interna-tional meetings, including the Conference of theOrganization of American State,s, held at BuenosAires in 1057. Later, a group of experts rep-resenting six Latin American countries gather-ed in Santiago, under the auspices of the United..N'a,tions Economic Commission for :Latin Amer-ica, to exchange more concrete views. Amongthe main points of agreement (not, however,government commitments) may be mentioned(1) the proposed common, niarket should beopen to all Latin American countries ; (2)

in principle it should cover all g,00ds produced.by the member countries, and provide for asystem, of progressive: tariff reduction, leadingultimately to a unified tariff system vis-A-visthe rest of the world ; (3) special treatmentshould be afforded to the less developed coun-tries ; (4) a multilateral payments systemwould be necessary, but member countriesshould be given the right to apply temporaryimport restrictions ; (5) credit facilities and.teehnicad aid would be necessary ; (6) a con-

59

sultatiVe minion and system or arbitration6hood be set up ; (7) protective measuresshould be provided for agriculture. Anothermeeting is Lo be held in Mexico and, thereafter,further meetings in other Latin Americancapitals. In view of the many i?ractical difficul-ties, some time is likely to elapse before offi-cial agreement is reached On concrete MeaSlireSfor the establishment of a eommon, market.However, governments seem to be willing toaccelerate the work required for an early achieve-ment of this undertaking.

Far EastAs a result of the rising trend both of pop-

ulation and of development expenditures, thedeinaud for cereals and other :foodstuffs increas-ed in 1957/58, while harvests were generallysmaller. ,Prices of foodstuffs rose appreciablyin a number of countries, and there 1: MS a Li

increase in both tire volume and value of agri-Natural imports. At the same time tho level-ing off or decline in, the volume of such exportsas sugar, tea, and rubber, together with thefall in export prices, reduced earnings of foreignexchange and intensified both currency andbudgetary, difficulties. BI3CallSe of the inade-quacy of investnient funds the tempo of eco-nomic, including agrieultural, development, inLb large part has had to be reduced.. A ,num-bey of countries, including India, Pakistan, andMainland China, are now giving more atten-tion tu agriculture, though in sonic cases thishas liad to be effected by a proportionatelylarger sealing down of programs itt othersectors.

New Or revised plans vere adopted in 1957in se-ven Southeast A.sian countries; Burma,Mainland China, Taiwan, Malaya, North Borneo,tire Philippines, and Sarawak. On the otherhand, due Lo the rapidity of economic growthtire original 1950-60 pro,gram in Japan wasabandone,,d, the targets for 1960 having beenalmost entirely reached by the end of 1950. In(..-%ylon the new plan is still being formulated.Adoption of a plan is still delayed in Indonesiaowing to civil disturbances, and in South Koreaand South Viet-Nam owing to budgetary diffi-culties. Some of the most comprehensive plans,the Indian Second Five-Year Plan and Pakis-tan's Five-Year Plan, are 'undergoing a periodof further review.

Under the downward revision of India's Sec-ond Five-Yea,r Plan, projeets directly- related

to increasing agricultural production arò placedin the category accorded highest priority.A second category of projects, including theexpansion of the community development pro-gram, is to be postponed. Two important:Enquiry Committees" have proposed somereorientation of India's agricultural policies,including provisions to counteract the insufficientuse hitherto made of newly provided irrigationwater by special credits for the change-overfrom dry to wet farming, and by reduction ofwater rates during the first years of use. Ithas also been proposed that, in communitydevelopment work, increased emphasis shouldbe given to better farming rather than towelfare activities, and that fertilizer factoriesshould receive highest priority in the attribu-tion of foreign credits.

Pakistan's revision of the Five-Year Plan -1955-60 continues to place the main em-phasis on agriculture, although some cuts werefound necessary in this sector as in others.The building up of an adequate food grainbuffer stock is considered a main goal offood policies in both India and Pakistan.

Japan's new long-term economic program,which started in April 1958, is to aim at fullemployment and the improvement of the bal-ance of payments. Agriculture is to contributeto this-goal by greater emphasis on the labor-intenvive cultivation of fruit and vegetables,by increased attention to livestock husbandry,by improvement of tea production and exports,as well as by limiting the need for cereal imports.The future annual rate of growth of farming,forestry, and fisheries is estimated at 3 percent.

In Taiwan, the targets of the first Four-YearPlan were achieved in the main by 1956. Asecond -Four-Year Plan, approved in March1957, expects the share of combined rice andsugar exports to be reduced from 68 to 58percent of total exports by increased exports oftea, fruit, cotton, tobacco, cassava, starches,groundnuts, etc.

As indicated in the section on agriculturalproduction, Madnland China also claims to haveachieved substantially the targets of its Five-Year Plan, which ended in 1957. Agriculturalincomes are stated to have risen by 30 percentduring the period of the plan, compared withan increase of 37 percent in industrial wages.

10 Report of the Food Grains Enquiry Committee,1957, Report on Com9nunity Development and Nation-al Extension, 1957.

60

Drafts for the second Plan, as discussed bythe National Planning Conference in December1957, suggest a simultaneous development ofindustry and agriculture on the basis of pri-ority to heavy industry. The percentage ofState investment devoted to agriculture, ac-cording to the vice-chairman of the PlanningCommission, will, however, be 10 percent,against S percent under the first Five-YearPlan. Industries serving the requirements ofagriculture, such as fertilizer and farm equip-ment plants, are to receive special attention.Agricultural improvements are likely to con-centrate on the country's vast mountainousareas and, as in India and Burma, on minor,rather than on major, irrigation schemes.

At the beginning of its first Five-Year Planin 1952, Mainland China's was still essentiallya peasant agriculture. By 1955, however, there.were stated to be 033,000 co-operative farmscovering 65 percent of farm families, thoughonly 6 percent were of the so-called "higher"type. In 1957 it was claimed that 96 percentof farm families were included in co-operativefarms, of which 60 percent were of the "higher"type, i.e., more or less completely collectivized.The pace of collectivization is also being step-ped up in North Korea, -where the numberof farm co-operatives rose from 12,000 in 1955to 16,000 at the beginning of 1957, while thepercentage of farm families covered rose from49 to 87 percent, nearly all of the "higher"type. In Northern Viet-Nam, collectivizationbegan only in late 1956, but as a half-way stage,"associations for mutual aid" were begun in1955 and at the end of 1956 were said tonumber 190,000 with 1.3 million members.

In countries in which prepared plans wereshelved, or are under revision, a good deal ofdevelopment work is proceeding. Thus in SouthViet-Nam, more than half of the target toresettle 100,000 farmers from lowTroducingoverpopulated coastal regions to fertile butsparsely populated areas was achieved by theend of 1957, and rice exports were resumed ona considerable scale. In Ceylon, the 1953 rub-ber subsidy scheme, under which replantingliad surpassed its original target by 1957, wasextended to 1960. A Five-Year Tea Scheme,for the replacement of old bushes by high-yielding plants, received government approvalin late 1957.

Slow progress in the implementation of plansis reported from Laos and Nepal, where firstpriority is given to transportation projects link-

ed with agricultural development. The reformof the agro-economic structure provided for inCambodia's Two-Year Plan (1056-57) has alsobeen delayed. A Twenty-Year Project for thedevelopment of the Mekong River, from whichCambodia, South Viet-Nam, Laos, and Thailandwill benefit, is nearing its first stage of realiza-tion. The four countries interested recentlydecided on fiv-e proposals on the basis of adetailed ECAFE study, which was developedfurther by a special United Nations mission.

In Thailand, where development is caniedout on a departmental basis without an over-allplan, the construction of the Greater ChaoPhya Dam, started in 1952, will be completedin 1958, bringing an additional 900,000 hectaresunder inigation. A survey of Thailand's phy-sical resources and economic potentialities isbeing carried out by a mission of the Interna-tional Bank for Reconstruction and Develop-ment.

In Burma, emphasis is shifting toward largerexports of primary products (rice, rubber, tim-ber) rather than to self-sufficiency. First pri-ority is given to the paddy expansion project,to immediate irrigation of paddy land and tothe repair of the Kabo Dam rather than tolong-range projects. Next to rubber replant-ing, the greatest emphasis is given in Malayato the transformation of irrigation schenies,most of which were designed for a one-eropsystem only.

Changes in consumer and prod.ucer pricepolicies were closely linked in food grain import-ing countries. In Japan, an Enquiry Commit-tee, set up to examine the existing food controlsystem, recommended closer inter-relation ofproducers' and consumers' prices in price fix-ing. Following some of its recommendations,the consumer price for domestic rice was in-creased, but the deficit incurred by the govern-ment's food account continued. Producers'prices for wheat and barley were raised, a stepnot recommended by the Committee. In India,the upward trend of food prices, which beganin 1955 and continued through lunch of 1957,called for measures counteracting food short-age many months before the Food G-rain En-quiry Committee had handed in its report.Special zones were created to restrict the un-regulated or speculative interstate movementof fOod grains, procurement of local surpluseswas reinstalled, the right to requisition foodgrain stocks at the average market price WMmade widely applicable, and restrictions on

61

bank advances against food grain stocks werereimposed in order to discourage speculativehoarding. The food problem was intensifiedin late 1957 by crop losses due to droughts inthe Northeast. In Pakistan, an increased pro-curement price for wheat was set for the firsttime for two succeeding crops and announcedtwo SCELSORS ahead. In Ceylon, a proposal thatpart of the guaranteed price for paddy shouldbe credited against the cultivator's purchasesof fertilizers and other equipment was abandon-ed because of sharp opposition from farmers.Even in rice-exporting Thailand, the srnallercrop necessitated measures to forestall a domes-tic food grain shortage, and rice exports wereplaced 'under quota during the second halfof 1957, but quotas were raised in early1958.

A new grain loan system was introduced inSouth Korea in late 1957, under which the fa,rm-er deposits his grain for storage at a local ware-house, at the same time agreeing on the monthof sale, and obtains a loan from the local branchof the Agricultural Bank against the warehousereceipt ; it i.s hoped this will moderate excessiveseasonal price movements. In the same field,the government's financial support to co-opera-tives and the foundation of the co-operative'sOW1.1 bank in Malaya, the creation of a centralNational Agricultural Credit Office in SouthViet-Nam, and the establishment of ami Agri-cultural Bank in Pakistan, may also be men-tioned.

-Under the important Paddy Lands Act inCeylon, which came into force on 1 February1958, many of the prerogatives of landlordsare transferred to the Commissioner of theAgrarian Services and to local Cultivation Coin.-mittees. These Committees, composed partlyof government officials and partly of electedmembers, have time right to appoint tenantsand to evict those who do not maintain asatisfactory standard of production. Threefourths of the elected members are to be chosenby cultivators (owners or tenants), and notmore than one fourth by non-cultivating owners.The tenant cultivator is given the right ofpermanent, transferable and inheritable occupa-tion of paddy land. The rent received by thelandoNvner is to be determined by the Commis-sioner and shall not exceed one fourth of thetotal yield of paddy. A Fragmentation Act,passed by the same government in December1957, prohibits the subdivision of tea and rub-ber estates of over 100 acres (40 hectares).

Near East

The relatively rapid rate of agricultural de-velopment of this region is in large measureattributable to revenues derived from oil pro-duction and transit and to various forms offoreign aid. Food production in inost countrieshas tended to outstrip the high rate of popula-tion increase. Per caput consumption seems tobe rising and there have not been generalsharp rises in food prices. Exportable surplusesof grains, cotton, coffee, dates, and otherproducts, however, have in some cases proveddifficult to market.

In agriculture, emphasis has been on largecapital works and much more attention is need-ed to the improvement of quality, the diversi-fication of production and the better use ofnewly irrigated lands, in addition to furtherdevelopment of land and water resources. In1957/58 there have been no marked changesin policy, but considerable progress has beenmade in carrying out specific projects. In anumber of countries longer-range investmentprograms are being developed, but no compre-hensive economic development plans have beenproduced. Greater government participationhas stimulated development activities by higherbudgetary allocations from local resources, agreater flow of foreign funds in grants andloans, and increasing revenues from oil.

Turkey's policy of massive investment isbeing pursued in spite of the strain on thecountry's finances. Public investment, whichamounted to 900 million Turkish lire in1952, or 27 percent of the total budget, increas-ed to 1,300 million Turkish lire (or 32percent of the budget) in 1957 and is to reach1,500 million Turkish lire, or one third ofthe budget, in 1958. With a view to strength-ening the financial position, a loan of 300million dollars from the United States has beenunder discussion, while as a result of the Com-modity Sales Agreement signed in January 1958under Public Law 480 the equivalent in Turkishcurrency of 46.8 million dollars is being madeavailable for local investment. :Private foreigninvestments are being accelerate,d, especiallyfrom Western Gerniany. In 1958 some 39percent of the investment budget is for agri-cultural development and the funds madeavailable are 11 percent greater than in 1957.Much of the other investment, e.g., in transportand communications, is of indirect benefit toagriculture. Price supports for wheat have

62

continued to focus a large part of productiveeffort on this commodity.

In the 'United Arab Republic agreements foreconomic and technical assistance were con-cluded with the Soviet Union and EasternEuropean countries. It is reported that theEgyptian region's Five-Year Industrialization:Program, which will largely be financed th.roughU.S.S.R. aid, may be completed in less thanthree years. Preliminary work on the HighAswhn dam continues and negotiations fortechnical and financial aid are being held withJapaii and other countries. In the strictlyagricultural sector agrarian reform is beingaccelerated, and price support policies continueto favor the production of wheat and cotton.In the Syrian region a Ten-Year DevelopmentProgram has been prepared calling for a totalexpenditure of 2,300 million Syrian pounds(some 640 million U.S. dollars). This compareswith 650 million Syrian pounds allocated inthe Extraordinary Budget for the Five-YearDevelopment expenditure commencing in 1955.Hydroelectric development, land reclamation,grain silos and other marketing facilities andtransport have a major share in the total pro-posed development program. The Develop-ment Board has initiated a series of agriculturaland industrial projects covered by the Syrian--U.S.S.R. agreement signed in 1957. The unionof Egypt and Syria, although unlikely to resultin immediate changes in the activities of eachcountry, may create different possibilities forfuture development. The unification of exist-ing organizations and plans is in progress anda new Ministry of Development has been estab-lished in each region, in addition to existingplanning bodies.

In Iraq, where oil revenues play a predomi-nant role in development financing, public in-vestment expenditures are rising considerably.Whereas oil revenues had not recovered fromthe Suez crisis and stood at 48.9 million Iraqidinar in 1957 as compared with 68.9 millionin the previous year, development activitiesare being pursued. Many projects for thedevelopment of water resources are in progress,notably, among those initiated in 1957/58, alarge drainage project in the Central Euphratesbasin. A sixth technical section has been setup in the Development Board for establishingand .financing rural welfare projects through-out the country.

In Iran, where oil revenues are also of majorimportance, the Plan Organization contemplates

an increase of 20 percent in its Seven-Year-Program by raising total expenditure from70,000 million rials to 84,000 million rials.Work has commenced on the very importantKhuzistan development project which is amongthe major multipurpose hydroelectric schemesenvisaged by the Plan, with an ultimate irri-gation capacity of over 1 million hectares,i.e., roughly an additional 50 percent of theexisting irrigated area in the country. In bothIran and Iraq interest is being displayed inthe need to intensify the utilization of irrigat-ed land to ensure increased yields and moreadequate return from the high investmentinvolved.

Development activities in Jordan progressedrather slowly in 1957 a,nd the unsettled poli-tical atmosphere has further a,ggravated short-ages of investment funds, Plans are beingprepared to reorganize the existing Develop-ment Board and introduce a new developmentprogram.

In the Sudan a new five-year developmentprogram covering the period 1958-63 is underpreparation and will call for a total expendi-ture of over 100 million Sudanese pounds.Expenditures allocated to various developmentprojects during the fiscal year 1957/58 amount-ed to 19 million Sudanese pounds, or doublethe amount allocated in the previous fiscalyear. These include on the agricultural sidean extension of the Gezira cotton area by200,000 acres (80,940 hectares) and otherschemes to increase production, including inten-sified agricultural research.

In Israel, considerable changes are beingproposed in the internal structure of theDevelopment Budget, but with only a small in-crease in total appropriations from 413 millionIsraeli pounds in 1957 to 436 million Israelipounds in 1958. Agriculture will take thelargest share at 107 million Israeli pounds. Acredit of 24.2 million dollars was obtained fromthe Export-Import Bank of Washington for theexpansion of irrigation and other facilities foragricultural development. In addition, a four-year plan for industrial expansion caffing foran investment of 500 million Israeli poundsis contemplated.

Africa

The main agricultural problems in AfricaSouth of the Sahara, together with the govern-ment programs and policies adopte,d to meet

63

them, are fully reviewed in Chapter III ofthis re,port. Recent developments in this partof the region will therefore be only brieflymentioned here.

A principal feature of 1957/58, as in otherregions, has been the continued need for gov-ernments to a,djust to smaller revenues, deriv-ed in large part from export taxes, as a resultof the generally lower world prices for agricul-tural and mineral exports. Most governmentsstill have reserves accumulated during the boomperiod, but some have nevertheless liad toannounce reductions in the pla,nned level ofdevelopment expenditure, as in the Federationof Rhodesia and Nya,saland, for instance, fol-lowing the sharp fall in the price of copper.Countries that rely heavily on overseas loansfor their development capital are also experienc-ing an increased tightness in its supply.

In spite of these difficulties, however; publicdevelopment activities are being maintained ata rapid tempo. While development programsin most areas are still directed primarilytoward the provision of transport and otherbasic facilities, most of'the more recent plans,as well as revisions to existing plans, havetended to devote an increased share of expend-iture to the directly productive sector andespecially to agriculture. A new round ofdevelopment plans was begun in the majorityof the British territories in 1955 and in mostof the rest of the region south of the Saharanew plans are at present in preparation orbeing put into operation. Further four-yearplans have been prepared in the French ter-ritories ; that of the Ivory Coast allocates asmuch as one third of total expenditure toagriculture, while the very large sums requiredfor its financing will be derived partly fromloans and current revenues as well as the met-ropolitan assistance which has been almostthe entire source of development finance inthe past. For the Portuguese territories, newplans are being prepared for the period 1959-64and in the Belgian Congo, although the currentone still has some time to run, a further ten-year plan, with increased emphasis on agricul-ture, is already in active preparation. InGhana, the 1956 deficit in the balance of pay-ments prompted the postponement of the in-troduction of a new development plan andinstead a two-year "consolidated" plan wasbegun in 1957. A second five-year plan cost-ing 100 million pounds ha,s recently beenprepared, including, in the agricultural field,

measures for the diversification of production.Information is still awaited on the proposed

expenditure of 580 million dollars over fiveyears by the European Economic Communityon the development of the overseas territoriesof member countries. During the year underreview some countries in the region have con-tinued to express their concern at the possibleeffects of the Common Market. A recent reac-tion to the formation of time Common Ma,rkethas been a decision to strengthen the economicsolidarity of the Portuguese territories and toeStablish a preferential .area not far short offull customs union.

The problems of the North African part ofthe region were accentuated by the poor hay-veSts of 1957/58, which once more emphasizedthe precariousness of agricultural productionin the highly variable rainfall conditions of thisarea. Urban unemployment, resulting partlyfrom migration from rural areas, remains severe.

Both Morocco and Tunisia are still goingthrough a difficult period of transition andadjustment, while in Algeria progress has beenretarded by the political disturbances, whichhave also affected the other two countries. Therate of investment has fallen off in the lastfew years in Morocco and Tunisia and capitalsupplies for development programs, formerlyvery largely from French sources, remain un-certain. In Morocco an interim public invest-ment program is being pursued and it is in-tended to begin the first national plan in 1960.In Tunisia a new development plan, consist-ing of two five-year phases, is in preparation,In the meantime, both countries have recentlystrengthened their development organizationsby the establishment of a development bankin Morocco and of a planning board in Tunisia.

U.S.S.R. and Eastern European Countries

In their agricultural policies these countriesmust be grouped with the underdevelopedcountries in the sense that emphasis is stillon rapid expansion of output. The long em-phasis on heavy industry in their economicdevelopment has left the supply of consumergoods, including foodstuffs and other agricul-tural products, far in arrears of demand. Am-bitious efforts are now being made to makeup the lee-way, notably in the U.S.S.R., andthese have involved sharp reversals of policy.In 1954, for example, began the large-scaleopening up of virgin land in Siberia, primarily

04

for grain production on State farms, in con-trast to the earlier policy of relying mainlyon higher yields from time area already culti-vated. In 1958 a major reorganization of timeagricultural structure was decided on ; the Statetractor and machine stations, formerly thelinchpin of Soviet agriculture, which not onlyprovided all machinery services to the collec-tive farms, but supervised their activities, areto be reduced to stations for machinery repairsand depots for tractor fuel. Apart from afew highly specialized machines, their tractorsand other equipment are to be sold to the col-lectivo farms.

Economic development in the U.S.S.R. upto 1960 had been set out in time Sixth Five-Year Plan. In September 1957, however, inconnexion with the general decentralization ofthe economic planning structure, it was an-nounced that a new plan was to be establishedfor the seven years 1959-65. The exact objec-tives are to be determined after July 1958.Their general trend on the agricultural side,however, appears to have been anticipated bythe establishment of considerably increasedtargets for livestock production, published inJune 1957 under the slogan "to exceed timeper caput production of the United Statesfor milk, meat, and butter."1 Broadly, time

U.S.S.R. plans to exceed the 1956 level of pro-duction by 40 percent for milk, and to trebleit for meat.

It is estimated that by 1958 milk productionshould reach 70 million tons (which wouldmean that the plan had already been fulfilled)by ami increase of 18 percent in the numberof cows and of 24 percent in average yields ofmilk. During 1955 and 1956 the number ofcows is said to have risen by 12 percent, andaverage yields by 14 percent.

Time targets for meat are expected to bereached in four to five years. From 1953 to1956 meat production rose by 33 percent, andtime new targets obviously mean a greatly ac-celerated rate of progress. Beef production isscheduled to rise from 2.2 to 6 or 7 milliontons by means of an increase of 40 percentin the number of cattle, by keeping calves tosome 18 months to 2 years before slaughter,

HFuller information may be found in two ar-ticles in the FAO Monthly Bulletin of AgriculturalEconomics ctnd Statistics : " Economic Trends inThe .Dairy Soviet Industry, " May 1958, and " ThePlace of Livestock Production in the AgriculturalPolicy of the U.S.S.R., " September 1958.

and especially by increased carcass weights asa result of more intensive feeding. The pro-duction of pig meat is planned to show aneven larger increase, from 2.6 to 11 milliontons, with a corresponding increase in thenumber of pigs. In addition, the output ofmutton (now some 600,000 tons) is to be rais-ed by some half million tons, and that of poultrymeat (now about 500,000 tons) tripled. Animportant aspect of the plan is the shift inbalance of livestock numbers, and still moreof production, from the individual holdings ofmembers of collective farms to the collectivefarms and State farms themselves.

An "appeal" issued by the authorities inMarch 1957 to workers on State farms indicatedthat the area of State farms should be grad-ually increased, both by bringing in unculti-vated land and by the transfer to State farmsfrom certain collective farms of land not fullyused. State farms are to become the mainsuppliers to towns of potatoes, vegetables, andmilk and are also to expand their meat pro-duction. Following this "appeal" nearly 850new State farms were established, while thecultivable area on State farms is stated tohave increased by 65 percent, their arca undercereals by 73 percent, their area under pota-toes and vegetables by 60 percent, and thenumber of their cattle by 82 percent, of pigsby 68 percent, and of sheep by nearly 100percent. Correspondingly, the cultivated areaof the collective farms, particularly the areaunder cereals, and also their numbers of live-stock appear to have fallen.

By the beginning of this year, however, theposition of the collective farms had been strength-ened by the decision to transfer to them themachinery of the machine and tractor stations,thus giving the collective farms full possessionof the means of production in the same -wayas the State farms. In some other ways alsothe structure of the collective farms is com-ing closer to that of the State farms : theamalgamation of smaller collective farms intolarger units is proceeding rapidly (in 1957 thenumber of collective farms was reduced in thisway from 85,000 to 78,000) ; collective farmshave been asked to review the size of the pri-vate holdings of their members and to reducethose of families who do not contribute enoughwork to the collective enterprise ; the aban-donment of compulsory deliveries from privateholdings, although apparently benefiting them,has to be compensated by an increase in the

65

deliveries required from the collectives as such.These measures will increase payments in cashto the members of collective farms but decreasetheir gains in kind, strengthening the trendtoward gradually transforming members of col-lective farms imito wage earners.

The sale of agricultural machinery by thecentral tractor stations to the collective farmsappears to be one of the most importantchanges in Soviet agriculture since the war.This reform was proposed as early as 1951, butwas then rejected by Stalin, and in 1953 thecentral tractor stations were in fact strength-ened by furnishing them with a permanent,rather than a seasonal, staff and by makingthem responsible for the general direction ofthe collective farms in their districts. Morerecently, however, their importance has tended-to decline.12

The main reasons put forward for endingthe tractor stations were as follows : the col-lective farms now had the means to buy andservice their OW11 machines, the separation ofthe tractor stations and the collective farmscaused duplication of work and muddleand was wasteful of money and personnel.The change will take several years, the ratedepending on the financial resources of the col-lective farms, which will have to meet threetypes of expense; (1) the purchase of the existingmachinery, valued at 20,000 million rubles,(2) the cost of operation, estimated at about thesame amount annually, and (3) futuro upkeep,replacements and extensions which may implyan annual outlay of some 15 to 20 millionrubles. In 1956 the total income of all collectivefarms was estimated at nearly 95,000 millionrubles, of which 16,700 million were set asidefor investment. The new measure has thusnecessitated a change in the existing collectiveregulations limiting investment to 20 percent ofincome. However, the collective farms willno longer have to pay for the services of thetractor stations and they can obtain creditsfrom the State Bank, both for the purchase

"The number of central tractor stations whichrose from 7,069 in 1940 to8,994 in 1954, fell somewhatto 8,742 in 1956. Again, from 1953 to 1956 therewas an increase of 76 percent in the number oftractors on State farms (90,000 to 158,000, but only11 percent in those of tho tractor stations (613,000to 681,000). This increase consisted entirely ofsmaller tractors of under 15 horsepower (111,000to 215,000), and the number of larger tractors (aver-age horsepower about 31) fell from 502,000 to466,000.

of machinery and for the planned expansionof livestock production.12

A further reform was announced on 20 June1958 under which the four types of sales to theState (payment in kind for the services of ma-chine and tractor stations, compulsory deliv-eries at low prices, selling under contract, andselling of surpluses at higher prices) are replac-ed by a single form of sale. The n.ew systemof payment is stated to imply no increase inthe over-all cost to the State for the acquisi-tion of agricultural products. It seems likely,however, to benefit collective farms with lowor middle incomes, whose sales at the higherprice levels have been small, at the expenseof those with higher incomes which had largersurpluses for sales at more favorable prices.

The countries of Easts-rn Europe generally fol-lowed the same policies in 1957 as in the twoprevious years, attempting to encourage increas-ed production, by making it possible for farm-ers to raise their incomes thereby. Latterlythe volume of compulsory deliveries has ten-ded to be lowered and prices raised. Amongsuch measures may be mentioned higher pay-ment in Czechoslovakia for early deliveries oflarge quantities of produce. Farmers were alsoencouraged by offers of credit and by increas-ed supplies of fertilizers and building mate-rials. In Hungary, Poland, and Romaniarevision of policies for compulsory and contrac-tual deliveries was followed in 1957 by meas-ures allowing greater choice to producers infilling remaining quotas and permitting themto pay arrears in cash rather than in kind.In Eastern Germany, the improved level offood supplies made possible the abolition ofrationing.

There was a renewed drive for collectiviza-tion in 1957 in all countries of Eastern Europeexcept Poland. Economic advantages in theform of lower compulsory deliveries and higherprices, of prior claims and lower charges forthe services of machine-tractor stations, moregenerous credits and investment grants andother preferential treatment were offered to co-operative as against private farms.

In Poland, and to a lesser extent in Hungary,land purchases by peasants from the State re-serves grew in importance in 1957, and peas-ant farming was renewed in areas where col-

'By 1 July 1958. 05 percent of the kolkhozes(colleCtive farn1s) had bough.t the necessary machin-ery : 400,000 tractors and 137,000 grain combines.

66

lective farms were dissolved. On the otherhand, an extension of co-operative farming wasparticularly marked in Czechoslovakia, where thenumber of co-operative farms rose from 8,000to 11,000 during the year and 1.2 million hec-tares were added to the area under co-opera-tive farming, now about 60 percent of all arableland. In Bulgaria collective farms coveredsome 86 percent of the arable area by the endof 1957 and, as in the U.S.S.R., there was amove to enlarge the size of units by amalga-mation ; the average area of co-operative farmsis 1101V nearly 1,200 hectares. In Romania thenumber of co-operative farms of various kindsrose from 9,000 to 14,000 during 1957, andState and co-operative farms now account forover half the arable land. In Eastern Ger-many, however, a campaign to increase co-operative fanning seems to have had smallerresults. In Hungary, where in October 1956some 2,300 co-operative farms out of a totalof 3,900 were broken, up, the number and areacovered by co-operative farms by the end of1957 had been restored to about half the levelof mid-1956. In contrast to the proposals toreduce the role of machine-tractor stations inthe U.S.S.R., their position was strengthenedin both Czechoslovakia and Eastern Germanyon the grounds that their role in the processof collectivization had not yet been completedin the countries of Eastern Europe.

In Poland the widespread disappearance ofcollective farms has meant the reorganizationof production on about 10 percent of the coun-try's agricultural area. Altogether some 8,000collective farms were liquidated, leaving only1,724; however, 257 such farnas were revivedor newly established in 1957. Peasant farm-ing now covers some 87 percent of the culti-vated area, while some 700,000 hectares of Statefarms are to be reallocated to small peasantholdings.

As part of its agricultural policy the govern-ment has encouraged the formation of "localassociations " which are self-governing bodies ofindividual farmers on a voluntary basis andmainly concerned with improving agriculturalproduction. Although still at an embryo stage,there are already about 10,000 with 300,000members and covering some 8,000 villages.About 50 machine-tractor stations were dis-banded in Poland in 1957 as part of a policyof rationalization ; State investment in thoseremaining, however, rose substantially, from20 million zlotys in 1956 to 125 million in 1957.

FOREST POLICY

In spite of the weaker demand for forestproducts in 1957/58, forest policies remainunchanged, since they are primarily of a long-term nature. Their most important feature isthe emphasis given to afforestation, implement-ed in some areas by governments themselves.Afforestation by private owners is also favoredby many factors : subsidies, loans and tech-nical advice to landowners by the State, Statebanks and private forest industries ; the attrac-tion of quick-growing species yielding high rev-e,nues, particularly where natural sources ofwood are lacking ; the relatively high price oftimber ; the convenience, compared with distantnatural forests, of easily accessible plantationssituated near forest industries ; the benefitsderived by agriculture from protection hedgesand wind belts. However, if the slower de-mand persists, afforestation policies may behamp:red.

In less developed countries, this extension offorest area is more than offset by the clearingof natural forests for agricultural purposes. Be-cause of the lack of technical personnel, properguidance and rational soil surveys, such clear-ings too often cause severe loss of soil andbecome great erosion hazards.

North AmericaThe results of a survey on long-term trends

of timber production and consumption in theUnited States has recently been published. Thedemand for wood products is expected to roughlydouble by the end of the century and it is shownthat the increased demand can be met, givena prompt acceleration of recent encouragingforestry trends. The Conservation Reserve Pro-gram of the Soil Bank may assist by encour-aging the afforestation of marginal lands.

Western EuropeAfforestation programs have continued to

develop throughout 1957/58, and even such for-ested countries as Norway now have programsof this kind, though in some countries the diffi-culty of finding convenient lands for afforesta-tion has sonaewhat slowed down the rato ofprogress. In the United Kingdom studies havebeen made for the better co-ordination of agri-cultural and forestry interests. An.other impor-tant item in Western Europe is the improve-ment of private forestry, since the largest

67

part of the forest area is privately owl ed. Im-portant progress was made in 1957/58, parti-cularly in northern countries, by strengtheningforestry co-operatives, or by increasing facilitiesfor the practical training of private owners.

Latin AmericaWhile progress in afforestation, particularly

for industrial purposes, has been important inLatin America (to the point that Chile has dif-ficulties in finding markets for the products ofits Pinus insignis plantations), progress in theprotection and development of natural and vir-gin forests has been slow. Although improve-ments have been made in the concentration andorganization of forest services (Chile, Paraguay,Ecuador, Colombia), and numerous countriesrevised their forest legislation in 1957/58, tech-nical personnel available is quite inadequate.Forest industries have developed, particularlyfor plywood and fibreboard, and further de-velopments for pulp and paper are contemplat-ed. But it is mere and more clear, especiallyfrom experience in the Amazon Basin, thatopening up new forest resources is dependenton the progress of general colonization, eventhough forest industries and exploitation maybe the main economic asset of new settlements.

Far EastThe most conspicuous development in afforest-

ation is provided by Mainland China, wherea Twelve-Year Plan was elaborated in 1956,aiming at "making China a green country."The afforestation of 92 million hectares is plan-ned, bringing the proportion of forested area:tothe area of the whole country frona 8 to 19 per-cent. Although the,'se figures are very high,they could be reached, taking account of theresults already obtained and the efforts beingmade to train technicians. Part of the afforest-ation work is done by the government itself,but a much larger part by the farmers.

In most other Far Eastern countries, the em-phasis has been more on the development offorest industries. New sawmills, pulp and pa-per and fibreboard factories have been set upor are contemplated, particularly in India, In-donesia, Burma, and the Philippines. Mechani-cal exploitation has also made some progress.Thailand has taken measures to regulate theexploitation of teak, one of its most inaportantexport items. However, in many countries,particularly the Philippines and Thailand, the

development, of forest policies is hampered bygrowing competition for land between agricul-ture and forestry, Little progress has beenmade toward solving the important problemsof uncontrolled clearing and shifting eultivation.

Near EastIn spite of adverso conditions some progress

in forest policy was made in 1957/5S. The de-velopm.ent of forests and forest industries i.s

included in the development plans of Iran,Iraq, and Turkey. Jordan has passed stronglegislation on goat grazing in the forests. Ethio-pia has organized a small forest service andconsideration is being given in Afghanistan tothe adoption of a forest policy. The emphasisin most Countries is on afforestation and moreparticularly on the planting of quick-growingspecies in conjunction with agriculture and thedevelopment of irrigation. Pop Lar growing is nowtraditional in many countries of the region, andtechnical improvements and the nee,d for moretimber give incentives to such plantations.

Africa

Afforestation, which has long been success-ful in South. Africa, is progressing particularlyin other African countries, :including Madagas-car and Tanganyika. Progress has also beenmade in the exploitation of natural forests, ex-ports of timber and, to some degree, the devel-opment of forest industries. The main prob-lean remains that of land use and competitionbetween primitive agriculture and forestry. Thesuccessful development of cash crops, such ascacao in Ghana, implies all too often indiscrim-inate clearing of forest lands, while pi..ogramsfor forest reservation are not yet complete, orare restricted to areas insufficient, even toensure soil protection.

U.S.S.R. and Easterrz Europe

In the U.S.S.R. the afforestation policy isclosely linked with agricultural development,and the opening of new landa for agriculturalpurposes normally me,ans planting new shelterbelts and afforesting eroded or poor lands. Theshift of forest exploitation from central and west-ern parts of the country to the large forestresources of Siberia and the Far 'East has heertaccentuated and facilitated by the increasinglycomplete mechanization of the lespromkhoze8.The entire separation of these exploitation

68

teams and of the leskhozes had, however, someinconveniences large arcas were left withoutcaro after cutting ancl regeneration lagged formany years. Leskhozes in other regions .haverecently been given the possibility of control-ling cutting operations ; they are given morepersonnel and are also being xnechanized.

AGRICULTURAL REQUISITES

Farm Machinery

There is little doubt that the increase ofmechanization has been a potent factor in thegrowth of agricultural production in the

postwarperiod. In como cases mechanization hasenabled new land to be brought into produc-tion ; in others it has enabled produetion to beincreased with the saute arca of land undercultivation or with a static or declining laborforce. :fa 13108t countries there have beennotable increases in per eaput productivitybaF.,,ed on increasing mechanization. It is, how-ever, difficult to pin down in quantitative termsthe extent of the growth in mechanization.

The most readily available and easily 00311-parable figures of farm machines relate to trac-tors. These figures show that the number oftractors in the world increased by nearly 50percent between 1949-52 and 1956. This in-crease was, however, very unevenly spread be-tween regions. For instanc,e, in North America,there was an increase of about 20 percent,while in Europe it was about 120 percent, inspite of the fact that tractor munbers were al-ready fairly high there.

Although all regions except North Americaare increasing the number of tractors very rap-idly, there are, of course, very large dispari-ties between the regions, as regards both totalnumbers and as-ea of arable laud per tractor.The region with the largest percentage oftractors and the smaller arca per tractor wasNorth America, both at the beginning andend of the, period. Furthermore, althoughsome of the underdeveloped regions have in-creased the inunber of tractors rapidly inpercentage terms, total numbers still remainvery small, espocially in relation to the agri-cultural area. In these regions mechanization,in terms of tractors, can scarcely be said yetto be having an impact on individual farms.

It must be borne in mind that the numberof .tractors by itself is not an altogether satis

TABLE II-17 WORLD TRACTOR NUMBERS, BY RECUONS

'As far as posible, the figures given hcre refer to agricultural tractors, but in some eases no clear separation from horticul-tura] tractors and tractors used for non-agricultural purposes can be made.

factory indicator of the progress of mechaniza-tion of agriculture. In the first phase of de-velopment, mechanization is a misnomer, sincedevelopment mainly consists of relatively sim-ple improvements to hand and animal equip-ment. Many of the more backward countriesare still in this stage, and are showing consid-erable benefits from it in increased agriculturaloutput. At the other extreme, when farmsare relatively fully equipped with tractors,mechanization takes the form of "automation",with the introduction of specialized machineryfor individual farm operations, such as com-bine harvesters, automatic hay balers, andmanure spreaders. At both these extremes theincrease in tractor numbers is relatively slow,while in between, when tractors are introducedas prime movers instead of draft animals, thereis a very rapid build-up of tractor numbers.It seems true to say that most Far and NearEastern countries and some Latin Americancountries are in the first phase ; many Europeancountries and some Latin American countriesare in the second phase ; while only a few coun-tries have reached the last phase of mechaniza,-tion. This is, of course, a very broad generali-zation and there are no doubt instances ofall three phases going on at the same time inone country.

In the Far East, mechanical equipment hasmostly contributed to increased production byenabling what was previously waste land tobe cleared and brought into beading. For exam-

69

pie, in the Gal Oya Development Project inCeylon 100,000 hectares of new land are beingbrought into production almost entirely bymechanical means. It may be noted in passingthat use of machinery in this way createsrather than destroys labor opportunities in agri-culture. It is also perhaps easier to use tra,ctorsfor large-scale operations rather than on farmswhere institutional obstacles, such as bad landtenure systems, lack of capital, and lack of" know-how " combine to make the introduc-tion of machinery very difficult.

In the Near East, the extent of utilizationof mechanical equipmentand the types of ma-chines being used are at present undergoinga rather marked change. In most countriesin this region, by far the greatest land areais and will continue to be fa,rmed undernatural rainfed conditions. The intensity andseasonal period of major precipitation issuch that dry-land farming can be greatlyexpanded if proper cultural practices andmachines are utilized. Unfortunately themajority of machines which were introducedduring the initial stages of in.echa,nizationin these countries had their origin in Eu-rope and Eastern America, where rainfall con-ditions and cultural methods are completelydifferent. In many cases, machines did notincrease either the quantity or efficiency ofa,gricultural production and often contributed tosoil erosion. More recently, surface-type til-lage equipment and special seeding machines,

REGION 1919-52 1056Percentage oftotal tractors

in 1956Increase from

1919-52 to 19513Arable land pertractor in 195G

Thou ands Per cnt Hect ares

Europe 1 055 2 316 25.1 120 65

North America 4 195 5 176 56.2 23 45

Latin America 144 273 3.0 90 400

Near East 32 66 0.7 106 1 520

Far East 19 39 0.4 105 11 000

Africa 97 173 1.9 78 1 435

Oceania 176 292 3.2 66 90

U.S.S.R 595 877 9.5 47 252

TOTAL 6 313 9 212 100 46 151

which have been developed specifically for dry-land cereal production, have been introducedan.d are rapidly gaining in popularity.

Striking progress has been made in agricul-tural mechanization in Latin America. In thatregion the production of grain and fodder cropsin the more important producing areas hasbeen almost completely mechanize,d. InArgentina and Brazil, mechanization hasreached such an extent that a farm machinerymanufacturing industry has been established tosupply the local demand.

In countries which have reached the last phaseof mechanization, the percentage increase innumber of tractors is outstripped by that forother machinery. In the United Kingdom, forexample, tractor numbers rose by only 7 per-cent between 1954 and 1956, while the numberof pick-up balers increased 89 percent and com-bine harvesters by 47 percent. At the sametime, simple tractor or horse-drawn machinesdecreased hay mowers by 11 percent, hayrakes by 17 percent, and grain binders by 5percent. In North America also the percentageincrease in tractor numbers has been relativelysmall, while per caput output has been increas-ing rapidly. In countries in this phase ofmechanization, the application of electricity toagricultural operations also begins to play apart in raising productivity. For example, inthe United States, in 1956, 93 percent of thefarms were supplied with electrical energy, andfor the period 1954 to 1956, the consumption

1952/53 1956/57 1952/53

70

of electricity on farms rose from 20,000 millionkilowatt-hours to 22,000 million, an increase of10 percent. In Europe also the use of electric-ity has contributed considerably to the in-crease in production as in the United Kingdom,where electrically-operated milking machinesincreased in numbers by 15 percent from 1954to 1956. It is perhaps significant of the rateof progress in mechanization in Japan thatelectricity consumed for agricultural purposesrose by 10 percent from 1953 to 1954.

Fertilizers

During the four-year period 1952/53 to 1956/57total consumption and production of ferti-lizer rose markedly. To a va,rying degree, allregions shared in the increased consumption offertilizers (Table II-18). It is, however, notice-able that the average intensity of fertilizerapplication on farm land in the developed coun-tries still remains very much greater than inthe underdoveloped countries. The averagerate of fertilizer consumption per thousand hec-tares of agricultural land is more than seventimes higher for the former than it is for th.elatter.

Consumption of nitrogen fertilizer rose mostand phosphorus fertilizer least. As a result,the N : P101 : K10 ratio, representing world nu-trient consumption, has changed from 1 : 1.25 : 1

to 1 : 1.1 : 0.9. In terms of tonnage, consump-tion of all three classes of fertilizer (N, P205,

TABLE II-18. CONSUMPTION OF NITROGENOUS, PHOSPHATIC, AND POTASH FERTILIZERS IN 1952/53 AND 1956/57AND PERCENTAGE INCREASE

1956/57

Thousand nctric tons

1952/53 1956/57

Percentage increase1956/57 over 1352/53

REGION

K20

Percent

SOUBOE : FAO, Annual Review of World Production and Consumption of Fertilizers, 1954 and-1957.'Canada and United States, including the U.S. Territorios of_Hawaii aud Puerto Rico. --vrotals of unroundcd regional figures.

658 3 504 2 862 3 555 45 32 24

277 2 237 1 649 1 808 7 2 10

153 163 65 107 134 6 65

324 466 250 552 45 44 121

37 103 7 48 32 178 546

153 197 30 62 115 29 102

490 653 19 40 73 33 108

092 7 324 4 883 6 172 35 20 26

Europe 2 108 3 067 2

North America 1 673 1 799 2

Latin America 138 322

Far East . 775 1 124

Near East 132 175

Africa 36 77

Oceania 21 36

World total' 4 883 6 600 6

P20 K,0

and K20) increased most in Europe and ovenon a percentage basis the increases, especiallyfor nitrogen, were noteworthy. Nearly all thecountries of Europe substantially increasedtheir use of fertilizer nutrients, the chief ex-ceptions being the Netherlands, where there wasno increase in consumption of phosphorus andpotassium fertilizers, Switzerland, where therewas no increase in the consumption of nitrogenand potassium fertilizers, and the United King-dom with no increase in phosphorus fertilizer.

In North America there were only slightgains in the use of nitrogen and potassium fer-tilizers and a slight decline in the consumptionof phosphorus fertilizer. On a percentage basisthis region shows the smallest gain of any inthe world, perhaps partly because there hadpreviously been phenomenal increases in theuse of all fertilizer nutrients in the UnitedStates, and partly because of the appearance ofagricultural surpluses.

Latin America showeci notable increases inthe use of nitrogen and, to a lesser ext:mt, inpotassium, the rise in nitrogen consumptionbeing largely due to Mexico. No significantincrease in the use of phosphorus was recordedeven though many of the soils of the regionare known to be deficient in this element. Withthe exception of a few countries, fertilizer con-sumption in Latin America continues at a veryloW level.

Time figures for the Far East appear optimis-tic, but are misleading. The increased consump-tion of nitrogen, and particularly of phospho-rus and potassium, is mainly due to Japanwhere in 1956/57 1.4 million metric tons ofplant nutrients were used. This tonnage isequivalent to 52 percent of the total regionalcon.sumption of nitrogen, 71 percent of phos-phorus, and 85 percent of potassium. At pres-ent Japan leads the world for intensity of fer-tilizer application (215 metric tons of fertilizernutrients per thousand hectares of agriculturalland). There was also a 50 percent increasein nitrogen consumption in India, but consump-tion of all elements remains extremely low anddoes not match the agronomic needs of thecountry.

Other countries in the Far East which haveshown some increases are ; South Korea, thePhilippines, and Taiwan in the use of nitrogen,and South Korea in the use of phosphorus.With the exception of Japan, Taiwan, andSouth Korea and a few other areas where fer-tilizers are generally used to a limited extent

71

for specific crops, fertilizer consumption re-mains at a low and unsatisfactory level.

In the Near East only three countries usefertilizers intensively, Israel, Egypt, and Le-banon ( I11, 76, and 48 metric tons of fertilizernutrients per thousand hectares of agriculturalland, respectively) and the recorded increasesin fertilizer application mainly reflect thechanges in these countries. Specifically, therehas been a very large increase in the use ofphosphorus in Egypt and of potassium in Israel.It is hoped that with the modernization andimprovement of agricultural production othercountries in this region will make greater useof fe,rtilizers.

In Africa, the most intensive fertilizer useis on the Islands of Mauritius and Reunionwhere SO and 52 metric tons, respectively, offertilizer nutrients are used per thousand hec-tares of agricultural land. The Union of SouthAfrica annually applies by far the largest ton-nage of fertilizer nutrients, but intensity islow (1.8 metric tons of fertilizer nutrients perthousand hectares of agricultural land) adthoughit is still the highest in continental Africa. Thecountries in Africa which materially increasedtheir use of fertilizer from 1952/53 to 1956/57are the Union of South Africa, Rhodesia, Nya-saland, and Algeria.

The soils of Australia and New Zealand areknown to be deficient in phosphorus and theuse of this element continues to rise although,on a percentage basis, the increases for nitro-gen and potassium are more spectacular. Upto date, however, the consumption of thesetwo elements is relatively low, partly due tothe prevailing view that with the well-develop-ed livestock industries, it is better economical-ly to obtain nitrogen from legumes than fromchemicals.

COMMODITY SURVEY AND OUTLOOKN

WheatWheat supplies in 1957/58, that is, produc-

tion during the year and stocks in the majorexporting countries at the beginning of theyear, were much the same as in 1956/57. Butthe volume of trade fell because importingcountries produced much more themselves thanin 1956/57 when crops were bad. Some export-ing countries produced much less, and in addi-

"Unless otherwise stated, theso remarks referto countries outside the Soviet bloc and China.

tion the United States reduced exports underspecial disposal programs. The net effect oflower production, partially offset by lower ex-ports, in the four major exporting countries hasbeen to reduce their carry-over stocks for 1958/59.Filling in the details of this picture, stocks ofthe four major exporting countries at the be-ginning of their respective trading seasons werepractically unchanged at nearly 48 million tonsdespite the large volume of trade in 1956/57,declines in the United States and Australiabeing offset by increases in Canada and Argen-tina (Table II-12).

World production in 1957/58, estimated at123 million tons, showed no change, but therewere significant shifts in the distribution ofproduction. Output in Western Europe, duemainly to more normal acreage in France anda large crop in Yugoslavia, increased 7.8 mil-lion tons, while it declined 10 million tons inthe four major exporting countries. In Canadalower yields reduced output by a thirdbut in the "United States output fell by onlyabout 5.5 percent despite an 18 percent reduc-tion in acreage. The Australian crop declinedfor the second successive year and resulted ina shortage of wheat for export during the cur-rent trading season. Harvests were larger inthe Near East, especially in Turkey, with anincrease of nearly 2 million tons.

TABLE II-19. WORLD WHEAT PRODUCTION - PRE-WAR, AND 1951-58

'Production for the years 1934-38 was low owing todroughts in 1934 and 1936. The 1937-41 averages forCanada and the United States were 10.4 and 23.4 milliontons, respectively. - 'japan, India, Pakistan, Brazil andMexico. --':'Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt, Iraq, Syria,Turkey. --- Ex-cluding the U.S.S.R., Mainland China, andEastern Europe.

72

'Including U.S.S.R., Eastern Europe, Mainland China.

As regards trade, in 1957/58 there was a de-cline from the unusually high levels of 1956/57.United States exports fell by over 4 milliontons and Australia exported only about half asmuch. Callada increased exports by nearly amillion torts and Argentine exports declined by25 percent. France re-entered the market,exporting 1.7 million tons in the first threequarters of the current year.

Preliminary indications for the 1958/59 cropare that in the world as a whole productionwill rise. The net effect of possible increasesin some regions, mainly North America andEurope, and decreases in others in 1958/59will be not only much more wheat availablefor export from surplus areas, but also less de-mand from the chief deficit countries, and a con-siderable increase in carry-over stocks in NorthAmerica in 1959. Prices fell early in 1958, asa result of the continued pressure of large stocks,the small European imports, and the expectedlarge harvests in North America and Europe in1958 ; c.i.f. prices in Europe (down 14-18 percent)were further reduced by the fall in freightcharges.

Coarse Grains

Supplies of coarse grains in 1957/58 weremuch larger than in 1956/57 ; stocks from theprevious season in North America were nearly8 million tons higher and world production roseby about 4 million tons to reach a record level.

Production in Callada declined 25 percentdue to lower yields, but in the United Statesoutput of sorghum expanded by 9 million tons,

COUNTRY Prewaraverage

1951/52-'955/56RYcrngp

1956/57 1957/58(prelim.)

JTillíon tons

Argentina 6.6 5.8 7.1 5.8Australia. 4.2 5.0 3.7 2.6Canada' 7.2 14.5 15.6 10.1United States' . 19.5 29.3 27.3 25.8

Total 4 countries . 37.5 54.6 53.7 44.3

Western Europe . . 31.1 34.3 32.0 39.8Importing countries

outside Europe2 . 12.4 13.7 15.9 16.5North Africa and

Near East3. . . . 7.6 12.0 12.8 14.9Others' 6.4 7.6 8.8 8.0

WORLD 95.0 122.2 123.2 123.5

TABLE II-20. WHEAT EXPORTS - PREWAR ANO1951-58

COUNTRY1934/35-1938/39average

1951/52-1955/56 1956/57

1957/58July-June

(prelim.)

Million tons

Argentina 3.3 2.3 2.7 2.0Australia 2.9 2.5 3.4 1.8Canada 4.8 8.5 7.7 8.1United States. 1.5 8.8 14.9 10.6

Total 4 countries . 12.5 22.1 28.7 22.5

Others' 5.6 4.4 3.5 5.5

WORLD 18.1 26.5 32.2 28.0

and barley and oats by 3.4 million tons, whilemaize output declined by 1.3 million tons dueto acreage reduction under the Soil BankScheme. In Argentina, on the contrary, produc-tion of small coarse grains fell, whereas a maizecrop of nearly 5 million tons (compared with 2.7million tons last year) was harvested; the maizecrop in the Union of South Africa was good.In the Near East larger supplies became avail-able for export, and there was a fall of 4.5 mil-lion tons in French output of barley and oats.

In 1957/58 European imports increased,-United States exports of maize expanded and,in addition, many prewar suppliers of maizefrom southeastern Europe re-entered the market.Nevertheless, United States carry-over stocks ofcoarse grains, which have been continuously ris-ing since 1952/53, were likely to have risen afurther 12 million tons to 57 million tons bythe end of the 1957/58 sew>ort. Canadian carry-over stocks due to last season's lower output,declined during the course of the currenttrading season by about 1 million tons.

Because of the heavy supplies, prices in 1957/1958 were at the lowest level since the SecondWorld War. In the early months of 1958 theywere 15-20 percent lower than the previous yearin North America, while c.i.f. prices in Europedeclined by 30-40 percent during the same per

TABLE II-21. WORLD PRODUCTION OF COA RSEGRAINS' - PREWAR AND 1951-58

'Barley, oats, maize, smghums, millets, and mixed grains.--2Produclion for the yeqrs 1934-38 was abnormally lowowing to the extreme droughts of 1934 and 1936. The 193741averages fer Callada an 1 the United States were 9.7and 80.0 million tons, respectively. - 'Jaman, India, Paki-stan, Brazil, Mexico. - Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt,Iraq, Syria, Turkey.

73

TABLE II-22. COARSE GRAIN EXPORTS' - PREWARAND 1951-57

'Barley, oats, maize, sorgl um. - ,Including, U.S.S.R.,Eastern Europe, and Mainland China.

riod. Lower prices are likely to continue asthere will be abundant' world supplies of coarsegrains in 1958/59. United States coarse grainacreage has contracted, but production is un-likely to decline significantly. In Canada, acre-age has expanded and an increase in outputis expected.

Rice

There were smaller crops in South and South-east Asia in 1957/58. The two leading export-ers, Burma and Thailand, suffered particularlyheavy losses, while in importing countries rain-fall was inadequate in Northeast India, andCeylon was afflicted by both drought and floods.Crops in the Asian temperate zone were,however, good, especially in Japan. .OutsideAsia, Egypt was the only important exporter toharvest substantially more rice than in 1956/57the United States and Italy produced less,mainly because of acreage restrictions, and inthe United States there is now much less ricefor export on special terms.

Quantities available for export in 1958 \villbe almost certainly smaller than in 1957, re-flecting poor crops and smaller carry-over stocksin exporting countries, but there is thought tobe a more marked reduction of lower thanhigher grade supplies. Although potential de-mand for rice is likely to be well maintainedthroughout 1958, governmental import programsmay be revised since alternative cereals areavailable in very large quantities and, to a

COUNTRY Prewaraverage

1951/52-1955/56average

1956/57 1957/58(prelim.)

ArgentinaAustraliaCanada'United States' . .

9.20.77.7

72.8

Million

5.21.7

13.5109.8

tons

5.42.2

15.9118.0

7.31.3

12.6129.1

Total 4 countries . 90.4 130.2 141.5 150.3

Western Europe . . 37.4 40.4 48.8 46.2Importing countries

outside Europe' . 28.6 34.5 36.4 35.5North Africa and

Near East4. . . . 8.7 11.4 14.1 13.6Others 25.0 32.8 31.3 30.1

WORLD 190.1 249.3 272.2 275.7

COUNTRY1934/35-1937/38average

1951/62-1955/SOaverage

1956/57

I illion tons

Argentina 7.3 1.7 2.0Australia 0.6 0.8Canada 0.5 2.6 2.1United States 1.1 4.8 5.9

Total 4 countries . . 8.9 9.7 10.8

Others' 5.5 3.5 5.5

WORLD 14.4 13.2 16.3

large extent, on special terms. In so far asimporting governments are successful in deflect-ing demand from rice to other cereals, therewill be further changes during 1958 in the pat-tern of world trade which has already shownstriking fluctuations recently. While some coun-tries llave maintained a steady intake, in par-ticular those which grow very little or no rice(for example, Hong Kong, Singapore and North-western Europe), imports into the four main im-porting countries have varied widely over thelast three years (Table II-23).

The reduction in japanese purchases coin-cided with the sharp expansion in imports ofthe other three countries, thereby reducing totalfluctuations in world trade. In this period thequantities exported by individual countries havegenerally fluctuated less, the main exceptionsbeing Cambodia and Viet-Nani. In 1958,however, exports from Burma and Thailand, aswell as from the United States, are likely tofall sharply.

Export prices kept remarkably steady (lur-ing 1957 and even by the middle of 1958 therise had been moderate. The basic Burmeseexport price for the smaller new crop was setat 37 pounds sterling per long ton (102 dollarsper metric ton).

The relative scarcity of rice this year is prob-ably a temporary phenomenon. When pro-d.uction recovers it is likely that markets willbe able to absorb the rice produced, sinceconsumption will continue to increase as aresult of the constant rise in world populationand incomes.

SugarIn_1957 world sugar consumption continued to

rise, though more slowly, reaching 34 million tons.

74

All regions except North and Latin Americashowed gains both in total and per caput con-sumption and, as in past years, the increaseshave been more marked in the low-consumptioncountries of Asia and Africa and in WesternEurope. The lower rate of increase in consump-tion was certainly due to the very high pricesprevailing early in 1957 ; the Cuban f.o.b. priceaveraged 6 cents per pound during the firstsix months of the year, but fell later andended the year at 3.85 cents per pound. Allquotas and limitations on exports under theInternational Sugar Agreement remained inoper-ative from 25 January to 19 November 1957.

Trade in 1957 was probably 1 million tonshigher than in 1956. Italy entered the marketand sold some 350,000 tons from surplus stocks.India shipped 150,000 tons, -while Brazilian ex-ports rose to 400,000 tons. There were sub-stantial increases in imports into France, Ger-many, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom,and the -U.S.S.R.

In the final reckoning, it is expected thatproduction in 1957/5815 will be 35.6 milliontons, 2 million tons higher than in 1956/57.Western Europe is expected to produce 7.1 mil-lion tons of sugar, 600,000 tons more than lastyear, mainly reflecting increases in WesternGermany and France. In Cuba, a presidentialdecree fixed production at 5.5 million Spanishtons (5,667,000 metric tons), while Mexico, Bra-zil, Peru, and Indonesia together will probablyproduce about 500,000 tons more than last year.As a result, international prices continued todecline in early 1958, but in the long run in-creased consumption mainly depends on a risein per caput income.

Meat

The expansion of world production was tem-porarily halted in, 1957, after five years of pro-nounced growth.

Total meat production, including poultry meat,was 50 percent above prewar and 27 percentabove 1950. In 1958 a slight further rise isexpected, mainly owing to larger productionin Europe. In North America, higher pig meatproduction will be offset by lower UnitedStates beef output. Total output in Oceanía isnot likely to change markedly, while in SouthAmerica there may be a slight decline.

"The sugar year runs October-September, andat the timo of writing only very preliminary indica-tions are available as to the final outcome of 1957/58.

TABLE II-23. GROSS IMPORTS OF RICE (MILLED)INTO SELECTED COUNTRIES 1955, 1950 AND 1957

COUNTRY 1955 1956 1957 1955 1956 1957

.Thousand metrictons index 1957 100

India 286 330 748 38 44 100

Indonesia 127 814 680 19 120 100

Japan 1 246 760 400 311 190 100

Pakistan 440 410 107 100

TOTAL 1 659 2 344 2 238 74 105 100

In Eastern Europe and the U.S.S.R., meatproduction is now much above the low levelsat the beginning of this decade, Poland andthe U.S.S.R. recording the greatest progress.

During 1957 world trade expanded anye-ciably and exports of all meats were nearly2.5 million tons (product weight), nearly 40percent more than the annual average in 1948-50.Exports from Denmark and Australia were muchlarger and imports into all the main consumingregions rose, United Kingdom im.ports being 5percent above the high 1956 level (see TableII-21). By contrast, in 1958 tracio is notlikely to change much. The major importingcountries (United Kingdom and Western Ger-many) have substantially increased domesticoutput of pig meat of which large exportablesupplies are available. On the other hand,with beef, where demand for imports into theUnited Kingdom and the United States is likely-to remain strong, there will probably not beextra supplies available for exports from theSouthern Hemisphere. Imports into continentalEurope may be less than in 1957, largelybecause of growing domestic output in WesternGermany. It is true that there will be an in-crease in trade in mutton and lamb, as a resultof larger supplies, but this is only a minor partof the total trade volume.

World market prices for beef and lamb werehigher in 1957, but pork and bacon prices wereabout 10 percent lower than in the previous

TABLE II-24. IMPORTS OF MEAT' INTO MAJORIMPORTING COUNTRIES, 1948-50 AND 1953-57

MAJOR IMPORTINGCOUNTRIES

1048-50

aver-age

1953 1954

Thousand metric tons

1955 1956 1957

°Beef and veal, mutton and lamb, pork,poultry, offal, game,horse meat and other meat, fresh, chilled or frozen ; preparedmeat ; bacon, hant and salted pork ; other dried, salted, orsmoked meat ; canned meat. Figures generally exclude un-rendered pig fat, meat extracts and sausage casings.

75

TABLE II-25. EXPORTS OF MEAT' FROM MAJOREXPORTING COUNTRIES, 1948-50 AND 1953-57

1\1A3 OR EX ,RTI N'tITNIT

Den mark .

FranceIrelandNetherlands .

Polen d12 ...Yugoslavia. .

CanadaUnited StatesArgentina .UruguayAustralia .

New Zealand.

ToTA:L. .. ..

1918-51)

raVe-age

153282746

*367

12564

44488

272354

1 644

1953

3592685

110103

45286

26$66

331347

1 837

1951 1955

Tho tuand metric tons

39669

107120

84240581

28576

277391

4157864

1518121.

45104393

9295409

975 2 065

1956

3654453

153973140

14657746

236431

2 219

1957

4384270

17096

*3749

147606*54295400

2 404

* If.stirnates.'See footnote to Table II-21. -- *Figures for th.o years

1953-57 include the meat equivalent of exported live pigsbut do not include poultry meat.

year and are likely to remain low in Europe thisyear ; by late autumn, however, productionand demand for pigs may be in better bal-ance. Lamb prices have fallen and will bemarkedly lower than in 1957. For beef, supplies,imports and prices are likely to remain muchthe same as last year.

In North America beef prices are expectedto average slightly higher than in 1957. Inthe United States pig meat prices will remainrelativel3r high until autumn, whereas in Can-ada they will be considerably lower in 1958than iztA year, following a .large increase inoutput.

Eggs

IArorld production again expanded in 1957,mainly due to considerable increases in outputof the United Kingdom, Western Germany,the Netherlands, and Canada. Exports ofshell eggs yore about 5 percent larger than in1956, reflecting larger shipments from theNetherlands, Belgium, Canada, and EasternEurope). United StItes exports Were reduced byone third, largely because of action to protectdomestic producers in some of the majorUnited States outlets. 'Western Germany againincreased haports in 1957, accounting for 55percent of the estimated world total, whileItaly ranked second. -United Kingdom importswe,re insignificant, home production being suf-ficient to meet practically all domestic require-ments.

Belgium - Luxem-bourg 55 19 17 15 22 31

France 16 21 34 48 45 65Germany, Western 75 61 73 91 191 169Italy 22 40 40 66 90 124Netherlands . . . 28 17 21 23 32 31

Spain 13 2 1 3 20 33

Sweden 17 17 32 16 16 32

United Kingdom . 1 198 1 307 1 209 1 352 1 408 1 479Canada 9 20 25 29 30 30United States . 106 144 139 133 119 178

Japan 2 1 2 3 26

TOTAL 1 541 1 648 1 592 1 778 1 976 2 198

The severe decline of egg prices early in 1957checked the expansion of laying flocks in severalcountries and it is unlikely that production in1958 will be much above last year. In theUnited Kingdom a reduction of about 3.5 per-cent in the guaranteed price in March 1958reflects the desire of the government to preventfurther substantial increases in production.Exportable supplies in Denmark and theNetherlands, which together account for threefifths of world egg exports, will not rise muchabove last year, and the increase in trade in1958 may therefore be small. It is expectedthat for the major part of the current yearprices will be above 1957 levels. HoWeyer,1958 hatchings were probably larger becauseof improved egg/feed price ratios, and produc-tion may expand again in the 1958/59 season.

Dairy ProductsIn 1957, in countries for which reliable data

are available, milk production rose by 2 percent.Most developed countries shared in the increase,,with a continuation of slowly declining or stat-ic cow numbers (the U.S.S.R. was the mainexception), increasing yields a,nd higher milkfat content, leading to a proportionately great-er increase in the output of full-fat products,notably butter.

International commercial trade continued toexpand in 1957 and in the first part of 1958(Table II-26).

The major development was the large ex-pansion of butter exports from a number ofcountries which, in earlier years, exported onlyvery small amounts. On the other hand, non-commercial United States exports declined

TABLE II-26. ESTIMATED EXPORTS OF DAIRYPRODUCTS,' 1954-57

'Number of countries covered : butter 11, cheese 13, con-densed ami evaporated milk 12, dried milk: 13. United. Statesbutter and cheese exports, for which total figures were notavailable for 1957, are ex-cluded for all years. Condensed andevaporated and dried milk exports, other than for reliefor charity by individuals or private agencies, are included forall years.

76

TABLE II - 27. BUTTER SUPPLIES INTHE -UNITED KINGDO1VI

ITEM 1951 1955 1956 1957

'Australia, Denmark, New Zeal; /id , Ntitherb uds.'Argentina, Austria, Firth nd, ar, try Dylan& Norway,Poland, Sweden, Union of South Africa. 'I ieludingminor quantities of imports from countries not listed.

steeply. The bulk of the increase in exports wasplaced on the United Kingdom, where not onlywere there average supplies from traditionalexporters, except for Australia, but also muchincreased domestic production. As a result,total supplies exceeded the previous year's verylarge volume.

Under the influence of large supplies and thecontinued existence of stocks in most exportingand importing countries, free market pricescontinued their long downward trend. In Feb-ruary 1958, New Zealand, with the supportof Denmark, asked the United Kingdom toimpose anti-dumping duties on imports froma number of European countries.

As from 20 May 1958, the United KingdomGovernment requested the Governments ofFinland, Sweden, and Ireland either to eliminatesubsidies on butter exports to the United King-dom or to keep these exports within agreedlimits ; otherwise the United Kingdom Govern-ment would impose countervailing dutiesunder the Dumping and Subsidies Act of 1957.Subsequently, Finland and Sweden agreed tolimit exports to the United Kingdom for 12months to 75 percent of average exports in1936-38 or 1955-57, whichever was the higher.Irish exports in the same 12 months will notexceed the 1957 volume.

The severe fall in world butter prices and theprobability that any increase in dairy suppliescould not be profitably sold abroad led to ef-forts in some countries to increase consumptionand to restrain the expansion in milk output.For example, in Denmark there were domesticsales of stored butter at lower prices than newlyproduced butter and in the United Kingdom

PRODTJCT 1951 1955 1956 19.57(prelim.)

Thousand 'metric fi as

Butter 423 452 459 502

Cheese 355 340 355 362

Condensed and eva-porated milk . . 373 423 437 430

Dried milk 238 282 326 328

ImportsT1 ousand metric tons

4 major suppliers' 270.5 295.0 334.9 304.1

9 smaller suppli-ers'. 14.1 12,4 23.3 65.9

Domestic production 23.2 15.0 25.5 34.6

Total supplies . . . 308.9 327.5 385.8 405.8

producer price guarantees were reduced. Ef-forts to increase consumption were intensifiedin the first half of 1958 in a number of Europeancountries. Generally, however, governmentsavoided reducing substantially either producer orconsumer prices which, except in some countrieswhere international trade plays an importantrole in the procurement or 'disposal of dairyproducts, remain insulated from world prices.

Cheese production increased during 1957 andprices fell : the London price of New Zealandcheese in March 1958 was one third lower tha,na year earlier. United States production of skimmilk powder was at a record Jowl last year, andCCC stocks at 31 1VIarch 1958 were higher thana year ago. United States special aid exportsof dried and canned milk rose markedly in 1957,particularly to Asia. Canadian production ofdried skim milk in 1957 was about 60 percentlarger than in 1956.

Recent events demonstrate clearly that indeveloped capitalist countries, as a whole, thedairy economy is getting out of balance. Va-rious incentives, particularly price support po-licies, backed by export subsidies or importlimitations, have resulted in a level of supplyin excess of demand at prices which would beprofitable to most farmers. Countries in whicha large part of dairy incomes is normally deriv-ed from export sales have been most affected,but there are indications of imbalance in othercountries also. Although remedial action, espe-cially for butter, has been taken in some export-ing countries, no permanent improvement canbe expected until there has been some checkto the recent rate of expa,nsion in production,or a sustained increase in consumption.

In the majority of the underdeveloped coun-tries, however, policies are necessarily still aimedat development of the milk industry. Further-more, it should be mentioned that a sharp in-crease in production of milk and dairy productsis taking place in some Eastern European coun-tries and, particularly, in the U.S.S.R.

Fishery Products

Fresh and Frozen FishTrade in fresh and frozen fish products was

well maintained in 1957. Among notable trendsin North America, production of frozen fish-sticks in the United States appears to haveleveled off in 1956 after a very rapid growth inconsumer acceptance in a few years. Imports

77

of ground fish fillets and blocks into the UnitedStates, mainly supplied by Canada, reached anew record in 1957 and continued high in 1958.Frozen tuna and, especially, albacore importsalso were higher than ever before. Prices inthe 'United States for fresh and frozen fisheryproducts during April 1958 were generallyslightly higher than those of a year earlier, andthe market for these products and for commod-ities of high unit value, such as precooked andotherwise prepared se,afood dishes, was regardedwith some confidence.

The best markets for Norwegian iced and fro-zen herring continued to be Western Germany,Eastern Germany, Czechoslovakia, Poland, theUnited Kingdom, and the U.S.S.R. In Iceland,output of frozen products, mainly or EasternEuropean markets, continued to increase withcorresponding declines in the production oficed fish for the United Kingdom.

Dried, Salted, and Smoked FishShipments of Norwegian salted cod to Portu-

gal, Spain, and Cuba were lower, though Bra-zil, by far the biggest buyer, took about asmuch in 1957 as in 1956. Due to lower produc-tion, Icelandic exports of salted cod, both toEuropean a,nd Latin American countries, weresmaller than in 1956, as were also those ofFrance and Denmark. Canada, however, main-tained its sales at the same level as in 1956,but prospects were not good in the first fewmonths of 1958. Total demand for dried,unsalted products prepared from cod a,nd similarspecies remained strong, slight declines in somemarkets being offset by increased purchases bythe West African countries.

Salted herring exports from the Netherlandswere slightly higher than in 1956, a,ithoughproduction was lower, while in Norway bothproduction and exports were smaller than inprevious years. The U.S.S.R., the principalmarket for this commodity, bought much lessin Norway, slightly less in Iceland, but almosttwice as much in the Netherlands.

Canned Fish

In North America, shortage of fish continuedto limit the pack of canned salmon, and salmonprices, therefore, remained strong ; however,costs are steadily rising in this fishery. Japanesesa,imon fishing and canning rose again and thepack probably attained a new postwar recordin 1957.

The well-developed United States market forcanned tuna continued to absorb substantialdomestic supplies. Imports, mostly from japanand Peru, also increased by over 15 percent,as did imports of frozen tuna for canning fromthe same countries, to over 63,000 tons.

In the United States output of canned Mainesardines was somewhat iower than in 1956 andproduction of canned pilchards in Californiaremained very low, due to the lack of fish.Consequeatiy, imports of canned sardines, main-ly from South Africa, l'0110 by nearly 30 percent.In the Union of South Africa, and in South WestAfrica, where strong local and foreign demandcontinued and inventories were low, prospectsfor the industry depended primarily on theabundance of fish. This appeared satisfactoryearly in 1958. Portuguese exports of cannedsardines declined for the second year in suc-cession. The United Kingdom, Italy, andFrance reduced imports of canned sardines,whereas Western Germany bought slightlymore than in 1956.

The Norwegian canning industry did not dotoo well in 1957 and exports of canned her-ring declined.

Fish illeaC

Production of fish meal, which continued tobe one of the most important fishery commod-ities, was probably below the 1956 level ofover 1.3 million tons. The decrease was main-ly due to there being fewer fish on certain ofthe principal fishing grounds. In the UnitedStates the 1957 menhaden catch was about 20perce,nt less than in 1956. The 1957/58 Norwegianwinter herring season was much worse thanthe rather poor season of the previous yearin the first three months of 1958 178,000 met-ric tons of herring, out of a catch of 342,000tons, went for fish meal production comparedwith 585,000 tons, out of a catch of 796,000tons, during the same period in 1957.

This decline in production in two of the mostimportant fish meal industries of the worldwas not offset by the continued expansion inother countries, e.g., Peru, Denmark, and An-gola. The disastrous winter herring season inNorway, which is the world's second largestproducer and the largest e,xporter of meal, willhave a significant bearing on world trade, andfish meal prices, which are now slightly :lowerthan they have been during the past few years,a,re not expected to weaken further to any ap-preciable extent.

78

Fats and Oils

As a whole, in 1957 there yore expandingproduction and peak levels of trade, whileprices generally declined from time beginning ofthe year (Table. II-28). World production, roseby 4 percent to nearly 27 million tons, thusmaintaining the slow increases in per caputsupprie3 for ail uses about 12 l(riograms as com-pared with less than 11 kilograms in 1948-52.World export.4 remained at the 1956 recordIevel of 7.3 million tons. The halt in the longupward movement in international trade large-ly reflects influences on the supply side, ratherthan in the demand situation. The Nige-rian groundnut crol) was very poor, copra sup-

TABLE II-28. FATS AND OILS : WORLD PRODUC-TION AND TRADE, AND INTERNATIONAL MARKETPRICES, BY 'TYPE' OF USE, 1950-54 AVERAGE

AND ANNUALLY 1955-58

Prices

Food and soapoils and fats"

:Drying and teeh-nical oils' . .

All fats and oils'

ITEM

Production

Principally usedfor :Food'. . . .

Food or soap'Non-food' . .

Total . .

Exports

Principally usedfor

Food'. . . .

Food or soap'Non-food' . .

Total .

1950-54

aver-age

5 1796 160

438

22 777

2 0442 985

710

5 739

114

115114

1955

Thousand metric tons

16 8346 8231 478

25 135

2 7523 257

828

6 837

93

8592

1956

25 870

3 0993 526

721

7 346

103

111104

1957(prel.)

26 784

2 9343 505

864

7 303

Index: 1952-54 100

101

102102

1958(fore-cast)

18 0007 0201 680

26 700

'Includes butter, la d, soybean, groundnut rapeseed, cot-tonseed, olive, sesame sunflower-seed, maize-germ, and tea-seed oils. 2Includ.es tallow and greases, whale (excludingenema), palm, palm-kernel, coconut, babassu, niger-seed,PoPPy-seed, shea nut, rice-bran, inowrah, murumuru andtucum-kernel oils. Includes linseed, castor, tung, oiticica,fish, hemp-seed, perilLi, stillingia, and safflower oils.'Includes series for Jan. ,groundnut, soybean, cottonseed, olive,coconut, palm-kernel, whale, and palm oils and tallow.'Includes series for linseed, castor, and tung oils. "Includ-ing fish oil.

17 139 17 8717 178 7 1891 553 1 724

plies for export, pahn kernel sales to the Nige-rian Marketing Board, and tallow supplies inthe United States were lower ; and as a result

.shipments fell. Moreover, exports of UnitedStates soybean oil under Public Law 480 drop-ped sharply in 1957. The decline was accen-tuated by government policies in some coun-tries with a low level of fat consumption, suchas India and China, where larger quantities offats were consumed locally and exports showeda sharp decline, although output was appa,rent-ly larger th.an in the previous year.

Western European demand remained strongin 1957, but imports rose by only 2 percent to4.6 million tons, in contrast to a higher rateof increase in previous years. Margarine pro-duction declined slightly afte,r several years ofrapid expansion, and larger quantities of butterwere consumed. In the United States total do-mestic use of fats and oils continued to rise,but imports, mainly for non-food use, remainedthe same as in 1956. Total non-food use wasa little higher, but use per caput continuedto fall.

The general level of fats and oils prices ininternational markets has shown no upwardtrend over the past decade, although therehave been wide fluctuations. Prices fell af-ter the Suez Canal was reopened, and at theend of the year the FAO index for all fatsand oils, excluding butter, after reaching itslowest point in October, stood at 102 (1952-54

100), compared with 112 in January 1957.After October 1957 some decrease in prices of" soft " oils was accompanied by higher lauricoil prices, because of the unsettled Indonesiansituation, reports of drought from the PhilipLpines and the removal of the processing tax oncopra in the United States. The subindex fordrying oil prices fell steadily during 1957, butturned upwards in 11/arch 1958 ; linseed oilprices recovered when it be,came evident thatworld supplies would be relatively small untilthe mid-1958 harvests.

Fats and oils demand is unlikely to bequickly affected by a moderate decline in eco-nomic activity, since the main uses are in foodand soap and no significant weakening has beenseen yet or is expected later this year, unlessthere is severe and widespread unemployment.In fact, in the United States, although importswere slightly lower in the early months of1957/58, use of food fats and oils Ivas higher,and total domestic use in 1957/58 is expectedto be 3 percent more than last season. United

79

States exports were relatively low in the periodOctober to March, but larger shipments of edi-ble oils and fats under Public Law 480 arethought to have taken place in the remainderof the year.

Fats and oils supplies will continue to belarge in 1958, particularly liquid edible oils, andUnited States production of animal fats andsoybeans is already forecast at near-recordlevels for the next marketing year. Technicaland drying oils will be affected by the continu-a,nce of the long-term technical changes in deter-gent and -paint manufacture, as well as by thechanges in industrial activity. 'However, sinceprices for most fats, oils, and oilseeds were rel-atively low early in 1958, and carry-over stocksin the United States and other major exportingcountries were small, any substantial furtherlowering of the general price level appears un-likely.

Fresh Fruit

International trade in apples and pears in1957/58 was characterized by an increase inimports into Europe, as a result of poor do-mestic crops. Mainly because of the declinesin Europe, total apple production decreased by24 percent, and world output of pears was15 percent lower. In view of the scarcity ofdomestic supplies, several European countriesrelaxed import restrictions and temporarilyreduced or abolished import duties. Fruitprices rose sharply during the second half of1957 and more than doubled in some countries.

World production of oranges in 1957/58 was14 million tons, about the same as in 1956/57.The recovery of orange trees from the 1956frost in Spain was rapid and production andtrade returned almost to former levels. Theincrease in Mediterranean and Brazilian pro-duction was counterbalanced by a decline inthe United States, where frost in Florida causeda loss of 780,000 tons of oranges a,nd tange-rines. World production of lemons was n.otgreatly different from last year's output (1.9million tons), but grapefruit production is ex-pected to decrease in line with the fall in theUnited States crop. Quick recovery of orangeand grapefruit production in Florida is unlike-ly and less than normal supplies are expect-ed in 1958/59. Given normal weather, however,production in the Mediterranean, South Africa,and South America will rise as new plantingsreach the bearing stage.

International trade in bananas expanded fur-ther in 1957. The downward trend in UnitedStates imports was checked while Canadian andEuropean imports reached a new record. Priceswere slightly higher than the year before.Extensive storm damage in some countries willprobably reduce output in 1958.

Dried Fruit and WineWorld production of raisins in 1957/58 was

about 520,000 tons, 10 percent less than theyear before. United States production contin-ued to decline and there was a poor crop inTurkey. auitput of currants was aiso reducedbecause of ,a small crop in Greece, the largestproducer. Exports of raisins and currants in1957/58 are expected to be approximately thesame- as the year before. No unsold stocksof dried vine fruit are likely to remain at theend of the 1957/58 season, the Turkish carry-overof raisins having been sold in late 1957, and theconsiderable carry-over of currants in Greeceused largely for distillation.

Prices for raisins have risen above last sea-son's level since September .1957. In the Unit-ed Kingdom, price prospects depend on theresult of the new Australian crop, ivhich isexpected to be abundant, while the situationin the United States and in continental Europeancountries is likely to remain unchanged untilautumn 1958, when the Northern Hemispherecrop comes on the market.

Date production in 1957 is not yet knownfor most of the producing countries, but worldoutput is not likely to be much changed. Worlddate exports, which have been slightly abovethe 1948-52 average during recent years, de-clined in 1957 and a further decline must beanticipated in 1958. Small 'crops and deplet-ed stocks in Iraq account for the major partof this decrease.

World wine production was about 50 mil-lion hectoliters lower (nearly 25 percent) in1957 than in 1956. Production fell by about38 million hectoliters in both France and Italy,and there were smaller declines in Spain, Al-geria, and Portugal, totaling about 10 millionhectoliters. German production recovered butstill remained below average. World exportsof wine were moderately loWer than in 1956and prices rose sharply in most countries dur-ing the second half of 1957. Because of theshortage of wine in France the price rose by95 percent for producers and 43 percent at theretail level between Ma,y and December 1957,

80

in spite of the whole production being releasedfor the market and there being no compulsor3rdistillation. The government further interven-ed to compel producers to sell one third of theirstocks of common wine at a fixed price beforeMay '1958. In Italy, the wholesa,le price indexrose from 78 in August 1957 (basis 1953 = 100)to 113 in January 1958. Similar pricedevelopments occurred in Algeria, Spain, andGreece where prices advanced in anticipationof greater demand for exports.

Cacao

After several years of steady expansion inproduction and a marked rise last season, the1957/58 crop was one of the poorest in ten years.Bad weather and disease reduced output in allthe main West African producing countries.Ghana and Nigeria are expected to produceonly 205,000 and 86,000 tons, respectively, com-pared with 268,000 and 137,000 tons last yearproduction in the French territories Nv ill bearound H0,000 tons, 30,000 tons below 1956/57and Sao Tomé, Sierra Leone and Spanish Gui-nea will also show declines. In Latin America,on the other hand, Brazil is the only countrywhere production is expected to decline, andthis decrease will probably be offset by slightincreases in all other countries of the region.The final figure of 'world production in 1957/58will perhaps be about 750,000 tons, 17 percentbelow the 1956/57 level.

As a result, prices rose in 1957, and at theend of the year the New York market pricereached 40 cents a pound (330 shillings perhundredweight in the London market), com-pared with 23 cents during January-March1957. In accordance with past experience, con-sumption was slow in adjusting to prices, andcontinued its upward trend to reach an esti-mated 890,000 tons last year. Grindings ofraw cacao have been higher in practically allparts of the world, in particular in WesternEurope. The biggest increases were in theUnited Kingdom, the Netherlands, and France,followed by the United States and Germany.International trade in cacao beans rose, and netimports during 1957 are provisionally estimat-ed at about 780,000 tons, the buik of theincrease coming from the Dominican Republic,the French Cameroons, Ghana, and Nigeria,which together exported some 65,000 tonsmore than in 1956. Ail Western Europeancountries, with the exception of Norway andSweden, imported more than in 1956, and the

U.S.S.R. and Eastern Europe seem also to haveincreased their purch.ases. On the other hand,United States imports fell by more than 20,000tons.

Prospects are difficult to judge. At the cur-rent level of prices a modest decline in consump-tion has started. The other two factors whichwill affect the outlook are the size of the Bra-zilian winter crop and the prospects for the1958/59 crops in Africa ; if these crops areaverage, world supplies may be slightly above800,000 tons, which would be below the high1956/57 level, but substantially more than lastseason.

Coffee

World production in 1957/58 in likely to ap-proach 3 minion tons, as a result of an estimat-ed 300,000-ton increase in the 1957 Brazilianharvest over the short 1956 crop (1,066,000tons), and higher output in some other LatinAmerican countries and in Africa. In Cen-tral America and -Mexico, production showedlittle change. World trade in 1957 lagged be-hind the increase in production and prices fell.

In anticipation of lower prices, imports in1957 were limited to requirements for imme-diate consumption and replenishment of stocks.Imports into the United States declined lessthan 2 percent to 1,251,000 tons. For the firsttime in the past decade, imports into Europedid not expand, the rise in Western Germany'snet imports (11 perce,nt) being offset by lowerimports into Belgium and France. Total worldimports may not have reached more than 2.2million tons, 2 percent less than in 1956. Com-mel'cial stocks were well maintained, and percaput consumption was probably lower in near-ly ail countries. In th.e United States, it isprovisionally estimated at 7.1 kilograms ascompared to 7.6 kilograms in 1956.

Export; from Brazil were only 859,000 tons,15 percent less than in 1956, and Colombianexports fell by 5 percent (from 304,000 tonsto 289,000 tons). African Robusta coffee, how-ever, was in active deinand throughout the year.

Prices in 1957 were influenced by two oppos-ing factors : the outlook for higher crops tend-ed to depress prices while the principal LatinAmerican producing countries took co-ordinat-ed action to maintain existing price levels.Between January and September 1957, pricesfor Brazilian and mild coffees declined by 12and 18 percent, respectively. The conclusion

81

in October 1957 of the Mexico Agreement whichprovided for the retention of 20 percent of ex-portable production in Bra,zil and 10 percentin the participating mild coffee producing coun-tries (Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexi-co, Costa Rica, Nicaragua) as well as for regula-tion of exports, had an immediate but short-lived effect in boosting prices. The CoffeeConference held in Rio de Janeiro in January1958 set up an International Coffe/3 Organiza-tion to promote world coffee consumption andsafeguard the world's coffe3 economy. How-ever, the failure to associate other, especiallyAfrican, producers with the regulation of ex-ports forced the member countries of the Mexi-co Agreement to accept further cuts in exportquotas, as well as the establishment of mini-mum export prices by Colombia. Nonetheless,Latin American coffee prices carne underrenewed pressure in February 1958, whileRobusta coffee was actively traded at prices 10to 15 percent higher than a year previously.

The outlook for 1958 is overshadowed by theforeseeable rise in world production, as a re-sult of exceptionally large crops in Brazilwhere the 1958 harvest is forecast at 1.5 mil-lion tons and in French West Africa, andsome further expansion in other countries. Lit-tle change can be expected in the a,ttitude ofbuyers. United States imports in the firstmonths of the curTent year were, in fact, com-paratively small. The Mexico Agreement coun-tries appear determined to continue price sup-pert measures in spite of the evident disad-vantages of heavy government financial obli-gations, the incentive to competing exportingcountries, and high and rapidly rising stocks.(The Brazilian Coffee Institute held 500,000tons at March 1958, and the total Braziliancarry-over amounted to more than 800,000 tonsby 30 June.)

Among remedial measures taken by coun-tries themselves are the establishment of sol-Tibia coffee industries in producing countries,and the intensification of trade relations withEastern European countries. Unless consump-tion resumes the upward trend of the pastdecade, there is little likelihood that prices willresist the pressure of rising supplies.

Tea

World production in 1957 probably reachedapproximately 700,000 tons, 3 percent abovethe preceding year. This was the net effect

of a reduction in North India and Pakistan,an increase in South india, Indonesia, andAfrica, and a record crop in Ceylon. Higherproduction was .not matched by higher exports.India, which had shipped unusually large (Van-tities during the Suez crisis, exported in 1957about 40,000 tons (17 percent) less than in1950. Pakistan exports fell to one third. Ex-ports from Ceylon, Indonesia and Africa, onthe other hand, yore %yell maintained.. Totalworld exports (including China's exports toother than Eastern bloc countries) are estimat-ed at areund 470,000 .tons, 9 percent below 1956.End-of-year stocks in producing countries wereestimated at 80,000 tons, as compared to 65,000tens a year earlier.

World imports were inflated to some extentby the late arrival of 1956 shipments aroundthe Cape. 'United Ki...._,:ngc..orn net iniports reacheda new record of 256,090 tons, 17 percentmore than in 1956. :fmports into the UnitedStates, Australia, Ireland, and soiné North Afri-can markets, were larger than in the previousyear, 'hut the Netherlands, the biggest continen-tal European Market, imported ices.

The inerease in United Kingdom imports wentalmost entirely into stocks, a,nd per caput con-sumption is estimated to have risen only veryslightly (from 4.45 kilograms in 1956 to 4.52kilograms in 1957). The improvement in im-ports into the United States and. Canada wasabsorbed by population growth. Per caputconsumption appears to have risen in someCommonwealth markets and other smaller con-suming countries ; and India and Pakistan alsoliad higher domestic consumption.

1:)rices at all auctions remained in generalslightly below the 1956 levels. High-qualityteas were scarce, and fetched exceptional prices-whereas plain tea from India, Pakistan, andCeylon often had to be sold at or near, pro-duction costs. In the last quarter of 1957,the Colombo dock strike and the uncertain po-litical situation in Indonesia led to a temporaryrise of prices in London, but they subsided inthe early months of 1958.

Output in 1958 may not reach last year'shigh level because, of the droughts in 1957in India, Paikistan, ami some East Africangrowing regions. The 1957 record crop in Cey-lon is unlikely to be exceeded, although thefloods at the end of 1957 apparently havedone little harm to the tea-growing regions.'United Kingdom stocks an important fac-tor influencing prices are not excessively

82

high for the time of the year (54,309 tons atthe end of March 1958). However, buying islikely to remain selectivo, and connuon teawill continue to meet strong competition fromIower-cost African growths.

In the less immediate future, two important,factors are rising costs of production and theshow growth of consumption in 1111pOltillg C0111.1.-tries. Stops to Cope with these two develop-meats include the formation by the Indian Gov-ernment of a Pronwtion Committee, to helpexpand internal consumption, and the estab-lishment of a replanting fund in Ceylon torehabilitate low-yielding ateas.

Tobacco

In 1957, the upward trend in world productionwas checked, mainly as -a result, of a reductionin the -United. States ; output in the Federationof Rhodesia and Nyasaland was aleo smaller.On the other hand, world production of orien-tal-type cigarette leaf lose sharply to a new:record level, The increase was :mainly inGreece and Yugoslavia, where plantings werelarger and yields higher. Consequently, whileexports of flue-cured tobacco will be lower,exports of oriental leaf are expected to rise. :POI'the 1.958 production season :now in. progress,output in Rhodesia recovered almost to titorecord 1956 level of 95,000 tons, but plantingintentions in the 'United States point to a fur-ther slight reduction in acreage.

Tobacco prices were generally 'higher in 1957.Prices for flue-cured leaf at -United States auc-tions were 7 percent above 1956 levels a,ndprices for Burley leal were substantially higherthan all previous years except the recordprices of 1956. Rhodesian auction prices wereconsiderably higher than in 1950. Export unitvalues in Greece remained the Sallie as in 1956,but prices for hig-h quality leal of the 1957crop were reported to be higher in both Greece,and Turkey.

The United States carry-over of leaf tobaccoat the beginning, of 1957/58 was 2 million tons,but sonte reduction. is likely following the smal-ler 1957 crop. Total Greek stocks of orientaltObaCCO 011 1 February 1958 were substantiallylower than a year earlier. In the 'United King-dom at the end of December 1957 working stocksamounted to 241,500 metric tons d.ry weight,the highest figure since the war.

The number of cigarettes smoked continuedto irise, but consumption of smoking tobacco

decreased again in a number of countries. Asregards cigars, in the Netherlands, Belgium,and Denmark the downward trend has beenreversed during recent years, but in other coun-tries consumption remained unchanged. Althoughthe outlook for a further expansion of cigaretteconsumption is good, requirements of raw leafmay increase more slowly, reflecting the shiftof demand toward filter cigarettes and newproduction techniques permitting the use ofwhat was previously waste.

Cotton16

World supplies, that is, production during theseason plus stocks at the beginning of the year,were lower in 1957/58 than in 1956/57. Produc-tion fell from 8.95 to 8.52 million tons, mainlybecause of the smaller United States crop, thoughoutput elsewhere rose slightly. Opening stockswere 5.01 million tons, 0.26 million tons lessth.an at the beginning of 1956/57. Consump-tion in 1957/58 was only a little lower than theprevious year, though this over-ali stability con-ceals a declining trend in the major importingcountries and the United States, and an in-crease in most cotton-growing countries (seeTable II-29).

TABLE 29. CoTToN WORLD' SUPPLY ANDDISAPPEARANCE

SOURCE : International Cotton Advisory Committee.lii.cluding the Soviet bloc and China.

"Including the Soviet bloc and China.

83

These various developments had two conse-quences. First, international trade declined in1957/58 in comparison with 1956/57, a trendaccentuated by balance-of-payment difficulties,partly mitigated by United States aid for cot-ton exports. Nevertheless, United States ex-ports fell from the abnormally high figure of1.68 million tons in 1956/57 to 1.24 milliontons in 1957/58 ; exports from other countrieswere somewhat high.er than the 1.45 million tonsin 1956/57, the main increases being from Mexicoand Egypt. Secondly, world stocks fell quitesubstantially to 4.45 million tons during 1957/58.The main decrease was in the United States,where there was a decline from 2.47 to 1.88million tons, CCC stocks especially falling to0.85 million tons at the end of May (mainly ofthe less desirable staples) well under half thevolume of 12 months earlier. Importing coun-tries also reduced their stocks, but there willbe some increase in other exporting countries,despite the growing market opportunities of-fered by the U. S. S. R. and Eastern Europeancountries.

The price of United States cotton in worldmarkets has continued to be 15 to 20 percentbelow the domestic level. In the first halfof 1957/58 prices of most American-type cottonswere stead3r or tended to rise ; at the same time,prices of Egyptian and Sudanese extra longstaple cottons continued to fall to nearer theirpre-Suez relationship with American-type cot-tons. Prices fell in the early months of 1958but recovered somewhat in April and Mayprices of United States medium staples werestill 2 to 3 percent higher than a yearearlier.

The production outlook is very uncertain.United States acreage allotments remain at theminimum, and curtailment on account of SoilBank payments may well be substantially largerthan in 1957/58 ; at present, next season'scrop is not expected to exceed 2.3 million tons.On the other hand, a moderate increase is fore-cast in the production of other countries.Any increase in the -world crop is therefore likelyto be modest, and output may well remainbelow consumption - especially if the UnitedStates recession is halted, as this would exertan upward influence on cotton prices in worldmarkets. In the United States, the currentprogram of releases from CCC stocks for exportsis to be supplemented by a " payment-in-kindprogram, under which exporters are to receivepayment in the form of cotton from CCC stocks,

ITEB 1055/56 1956/57 1957/581958/59(esti-mate)

M illion metric tons

Stocks

United States. . . 2.43 3.14 2.45 1.86Elsewhere . . . . 2.36 2.13 2.56 2.59

Total 4.79 5.27 5.01 4.45

Production

United States. 3.19 2.82 2.36 2.25

Elsewhere . . 6.07 6.13 6.16 6.40

Total 9.28 8.95 8.52 8.65

Total supply . . 14.07 14.22 13.53 13.10

Consumption . 8.76 9.11 8.98

thus assisting in the liquidation of CCC inven-tories.

Wool"A decline in world consumption began in

mid-1957. Activity in the wool textile industrywas very sharply reduced in the United Statesand, to a lesser extent, in the United Kingdom,some European countries, and Japan. The fallin consumption was accentuated by increasinguse of man-made fibers, notably in the UnitedStates industry. Trade was restricted by thecredit stringency and in some countries, partic-ularly France and Japan, shortage of foreignexchange. World exports declined by about 6percent in the latter part of 1957, mainly re-flecting reduced shipments from South America.Since the beginning of the 1957/58 season, pricesof Dominion wools have shown an almost con-tinuous decline (Figure II-13). By the end of theseason (June), both merino and crossbred priceswere 20 percent below the average for the pre-vious season and stabilization schemes came intooperation in South Africa and New Zealand,while in South America export taxes werecancelled and in February concessions weremade in foreign exchange provisions affectingwool exports. In import markets the disposalof United States CCC stocks was completed bythe end of 1957 and release from the UnitedKingdom govern.ment stockpile was suspendedafter April.

World supply of wool is estimated to havebeen slightly smaller in 1957/58 than in 1956/57,with lower opening stocks and the clip being

"Including the Soviet bloc and China.

Pence perlb. (clean)

200

JF M t M j J

1955

FIGURE 11-13. Dominion Wool Prices 1

11111111111111111

ISMS

11111111111111111111111111MINIMI111111111111111111111111

1111

1.1111111111111111 SIN

1114111M1iii

Miar.NI 1110111111411

IIII II ID 0111111111111111111111111

Essissommins111111111111111111111111

MNBEMMIMEI. MEIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII MUM

o

SOURCE : New Zealand Wool Commission.

'Unweighted average of quotations for super, good, and average noble combing-fleece and skirtings (free and light burry) sold in the United King-dom and in the Dominions.

84

1.31 million. tons (clean basis) as against 1.33million tons in 1956/57. Drought reduced clipsin Eastern Australia and the Kar. oo, but clipswere larger in both Argentina and Uruguay asa result of the increase in flock numbers.Among importing countries, the United Statesclip declined but sheep numbers are increasing.A further increase is reported in U.S.S.R.production.

Immediate prospects are not unfavorablesince the recession in wool textile activity maybe short-lived. It represents mainly the work-ing down of stocks of manufactured goods andmay be completed during 1958/59, in whichcase demand for raw wool would revive.

Longer-term prospects for the consumptionof wool are good so long as standards of livingcontinue to advance. Per caput consumptionof apparel and textiles may increase more slowlyin regions where it is already high, but this shouldbe offset elsewhere. The supply of competi-tive man-made fibers seems likely to increase,but experience has shown that the displaCe-ment of wool on utility grounds has not pre-vented complete absorption of wool clips andthat substitution has become more importantonly at times and in countries where wool pricesare relatively high.

JuteSupplies available in 1957/58 were much the

same as in 1956/57, with only small changes instocks and productiom The crop is estimatedat about 1.2 million metric tons in Pakistanand 740,000 tons in India. In addition., Indiaproduced 220,000 tons of mesta (an allied fiber).Output in minor producting countries (Brazil,

SONOJ PMANJ ASOJO1958

IN18C BEM111111111111101

IIIIIIII

../03 Cello

ONIOJFf AM.) ASONOJFMAMJJA1956 1957

o

o

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

200

180

60

o

20

100

80

60

40

20

TABLE II 30. ESTIMATED JUTE CROPS ANDDISAPPEARANCE IN PAKISTAN AND INDIA

SOURCES ; Pakistan Jute Association and Indian Jute MillsAssociation.

Taiwan, Nepal, Burma) was practically- unchan-ged. Latest production figures are not yetavailable for China where production has risenconsiderably in recent years (Table II-30).

Although jute manufacturing generally hasbecome less remunerative, Pakistani mills in-creased their consumption by 20 percent in1957/58. Indian mills are estimated to beconsuming almost as much jute in 1957/58 asin the two preceding seasons, possibly as a resultof a recent minimum gunny price agreement.European mills, on the other hand, have liad toreduce activity more drastically and the declinein consumption begun in 1957 has continued.Nevertheless, 1957/58 prices avera,ged the sameor slightly higher than in 1956/57. Demandwas active, apparently not only for consump-tion but for stock, and total exports from Paki:stan were the same as in 1956/57, though exportsto overseas destin.ations fell by 4 percent.

If official objectives are realized, the 1958/59season will see a significant reduction in thePakistani jute crop acreage for only 1 mil-lion tons being licensed and an almost equallysignificant expansion in the Indian jute crop,where an increase of about 20 percent in out-put is projected. Actual production, however,

85

tends to be determined by the relative advan-tages of planting jute or rice. In 1957/58jute prices wele much the same as in 1956/57; inPakistan rice prices are somewhat lower thanin 1956/57, though they have risen slightly inIndia.

Thus, the immediate outlook is for not muchchange in acreage, but expectations of bumperharvests in both India and Pakistan at thebeginning of 1958/59 point to some increase inthe new crop. Both Pakistan and India havelonger-term plans for increased output. InPakistan the extra output will be less thannecessary for the planned increase in manu-facturing, and export availability of raw juteseems likely to dwindle. In India the increasein production is planned not only to meet aconsiderable increase in jute manufacturing,but also to reduce imports from Pakistan toresidual qualities. Growing domestic marketsmay be expected to absorb some of the addi-tional manufactured jute, but it may be diffi-cult to dispose of additional export suppliesat remunerative prices.

Hard Fibers

Hard fiber production reached a new recordof some 825,000 tons in 1957, but has tended tolevel off in the past two years. Abacá output,at about 140,000 tons, fell slightly due to areduction. in Philippine production ; output inNorth Borneo and Central America increased.SIsal production (over 500,000 tons) increasedslightly because of large): crops in Brazil andPortuguese Africa. Henequen production roseslightly to 120,000 tons, due to larger cuttingsin Mexico.

Sisal consumption was at a peak in 1957,while the supply of henequen tended to be ex-cessive, with the excess concentrated in hene-quen fiber stocks in Mexico. Demand for sisalwas smaller in the United States, but betterharvests in Europe and elsewhere increasedrequirements of farm twines, while other usesalso expanded. Only marginal quantities ofhenequen now enter world trade. Prices ofboth sisal and henequen continued their six-year-long decline. Demand for abacá, mainlyfor shipping ropes, continued strong in 1957and prices were on an average 20 percent higherthan in 1956 (Figure II-14).

There was already some weakening of demandfor abacé, in the latter part of 1957 and prices

ITEM 1955/56 1956/67 1957/58

.... Million metric tons ....Estimated crop

Pakistan 1.25Jute 1.27 1.18

India 0.74Jute 0.76 0.78Mesta 0.21 0.27 0.22

Total, India and Pak-istan 2.24 2.23 2.21

Estimated commercial dis-appearanceExports

Pakistani exportsoverseas 0.79 0.63 0.7

Mill consumptionIndia 1.19 1.18 1.13Pakistan . . . . 0.13 0.16 0.19

TOTAL 2.11 2.08 2.07

FIGURE II-14. Hard Fiber Prices, New York1955-58

U. S. centsper lb.

30

25 -

20 -

15 -

10 - ' Ps

/". 1..*.'"NI;

Natzmkt,

86

Rubber

Production of natural rubber (1.9 milliontons) in 1957 was substantially unchanged forthe second year running (see Table II-31).There was some improvement in Malaya, dueto increased output from estates, and also inCeylon. Estate production in Indonesia, how-ever, continued to decline, being scarcely offsetby a small increase in smallholders' output.Production elsewhere in Southeast Asia showedvirtually no change, but expansion outside theregion continued. After some stability in thefirst half of 1957, international prices fell stead-ily from August onwards, with a temporaryrecovery in December, and continued to fallin early 1958. Rubber requirements of theUnited States, the United Kingdom and theSoviet bloc were smaller but demand in othercountries was well maintained. Domestic Unit-ed Kingdom consumption fell only slightly in1957, but entrepot trade, particularly to theSoviet Union, declined sharply. United Statesand United Kindorn consumption of naturalrubber has been falling fairly steadily over thepast two years, while consumption of the syn-thetic product has been well maintained.

The short-term outlook is clouded by therecession in the United States automobile in-dustry and by rather ample tire stocks, butmore active buying by the Soviet Union andChina has been reported and, unless Europeanand Japanese industries suffer a recession, over-all requirements fol.' natural rubber should bemaintained in 1958.

In the long run, expansion in rubber require-ments seems fairly well assured, although in

TABLE II-31. NATURAL RUBBER PRODUCTLON,CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS

SOURCE : International Rubbel. Study Group.

ITEAT 1955 1956 1957

... 'Thousand Metric tons .. .Production

Indonesia 749 698 695Elsewhere 1 200 1 220 1 225

Total. 1 950 1 920 1 920

Consumption

United States . 645 571 548Elsewhere 1 270 1 365 1 350

1 915 1 936 1 900Closing stocks (com-

mercial) 765 740 760

1955 1956 1957 1958

Abaca, Philippine I (Davao)Sisal, Beano ISisal, Brazilian, 3-5-7Henequen, Mexican A

declined steadily in early 1958 under the in-fluence of the, industrial recession in the UnitedStates, the major importer. Moreover, a con-siderable tonnage of shipping in various partsof the world has been laid up and shipyardsin a number of countries have recently hadorders canceled. A further factor is the grow-ing use of synthetic fibers for cordage andfishing nets. It seems unlikely that any sharpdrop in demand for abacá would be equallymatched by adjustment in output. The de-mand for sisal and henequen is less directlyaffected by the industrial recession and in thelong run there are technological factors favoringexpanded consumption and new markets. Oper-ations on estates where production has becomeuneconomic, especially in Indonesia, are beingcurtailed, while production capacity in someother areas, notably Brazil, is becoming fairlyfully 'utilized. It is too soon to say, however,that the downward drift of prices is comingto an end. In the more immediate future, theamount of farm twine necessary for grain andhay harvests will be a major factor influencingspinners' demand, while the disposal of accu-mulated henequen stocks could adversely af-fect prices.

the past ten years synthetic rubber consumptionhas expanded faster than natural. An im-portant expansion in synthetic rubber is nowunder way in Western Europe ; whether therewill be enough natural rubber to maintainits sh.are of the m.arket in the future dependslargely on the possibility of increasing pro-ductivity. There has already been extensivereplanting with high-yielding trees in Malayaand Ceylon, and special schemes encouragethis development among small holders. Out-put in these countries may keep pace withthe rate of market expansion during the nextdecade. But Indonesia is likely to hang backpen.ding more extensive replanting under moresettled conditions.

Forest Products

Round'wood

In 1957, world roundwood production wasabout 1,560 million cubic meters, as againstsome 1,590 million cubic meters in 1956. Pro-duction of sawlogs, notably in North America,but also in Europe, declined and in NorthAmerica pulpwood fellings were also reduced.The relatively small increase recorded in round-wood production in the Soviet Union and Asiacould not offset the influence of European andNorth American developments on total worldproduction.

The demand for sawnwood in North Americahad gradually been reduced as a result of fall-ing building activity since 1955 in the UnitedStates, and led to smaller requirements fornew log supplies. This trend was further ac-centuated by the United States recession.Thus, North A.merican production of sawlogs,which in 1.956 had fallen by 7 million cubicmeters, declined further by close. to 20 millioncubic meters in 1957. Production of pulp-wood in North America, however, declined byonly about 1 percent from the 1956 level,since the effect of the recession on the pulpand paper industry was only partly felt in1957, though a marked increase in pulpwoodstocks was already noticeable at the end ofthat year.

In Europe also production of sawlogs againfell in 1957, in fact proportionally more thanshown by declining sawnwood output, as millstocks in many of the principal producingcountries were reduced in the course of the year.

87

As to pulpwood and other small-sized round-wood, production in 1057 did not show anysignificant change from 1956.

The vonune of :world trade in roundwoodin 1957, on the other hand, did not changemuch fiemo that of 1.956. Exports by NorthAmerica generally declined somewh.at, but ex-ports by Europe were maintained on the whole.The Soviet Union increased roundwood exportsslightly, and exports of hardwood logs fromAfrica showed a certain rise over the 1956level. Export prices were maintained duringmost of 1957, partly because of :falling freightrates which reduced the landed cost of import-ed roundwood. Toward the end of the year,a marked :weakening of pulpwood export pricesIvas, however, noticed in Europe.

For 1958, although the raw material requir-ed by certain forest industries for current pro-duction may be smaller than in 1957, particu-larly in Europe, a small increase in worldround wood production can be foreseen, sincemill stocks, depleted in 1956/57, h.ave to bereplenished. The key factor, however, is theUnited States recession, which., if it intensifies,could lead eventually to a further decline inroundwood production.

Sawn wood

In 1957, North American output droppedby 11 percent compared with 1956. In WesternEurope the fall was almost 4 percent and inLatin America close to 3 percent. In otherregions as a whole production again slightlyincreased, but not sufficiently to prevent afurther fall of some 10 million cubic meters,or over 3 percent, in total world productionof sawnwood.

In North America the reasons for the declinein sawnwood production were the same as forroundwood, namely the economic recession of1957 in the United States, superimposed on acontinued fall in building activity in theUnited States. Thus, United States demandfor sawnwood was depressed, and productionfollowed suit, being 7 percent lower in thefirst quarter of 1958 than it was a year earlier.

Until 1957, annual consumption of sawnwoodin Europe had slightly increased because ofthe steady growth of building and industrialactivity which offset the effects of more ra-tional utilization of wood and substitution ofother materials. In 1957, however, Europe'ssawnwood consumption remained at the 1956level. A small decline in the region's OW11

production was compensated by higher imports,and, to a certain degree, particula,rly in theexporting countries, by stock reductions. To-ward the end of 1957, a check to industrialexpansion and house-building activities becameapparent, and there Were even small declinesin some countries. These trends, together withthe probable effects of the United States reces-sion, still hardly felt in Europe, indicate thatEuropean requirements fui DOW su.pplies ofsawnwood in :1958 witi also be reduced.

In Africa and Asia, production of sawnwoodin 1957 rose somewhat from the 1956 level,while in Oceania, there was a small decline.

In 1957, the volume of world trade in sawn-wood showed little change from 1956. TheEuropea,n market remained rather activethroughout 1957, while in North America, thedeclining trend continued. In 1.958, however,the European market opened on a distinct noteof uncertainty. Importers, in the face of the lessfavorable general economic outlook, were un-willing to make major forward commitmentsor to replenish stocks. Consequently, the prin-cipal exporting countries, with the exceptionof the Soviet Union, sold considerably less inthe first half of 1958 than a yea,r earlier.

Sales by North America to Europe did notshow any marked change from 1957, despitethe potential surplus avaiiabilities and the ex-ceptionally low ocean freight ratos, which nor-mally should have made North American sawn-wood quite attractive to European importers.

There was some increase in activity on theEuropean sawnwood inarket toward the endof the spring of 1958, as a result of competitiveprice cutting by the U.S.S.R. and Finland.But even so the, present outlook for 1958 isfor lower consumer demand in Europe andprobably for reduced output. As demand pros-pects in North America also remain relativelyunfavorable, total world demand as well asoutput is likely to show a further decline in1958. Further developments, however, dependchiefly on the general state of industrial andeconomic activity in North America and Europeand the extent of repercussions on other regions.

Wood, Pulp

A sharp check to the postwar rate of growthin production by the pulp, paper and board,and fibreboard industries took place in 1957.World production of wood pulp increased in1957 by less than 1 percent compared withan increase of close to 7 percent in 1956 and

88

about 8 percent annually from 1947 to 1955.World pulp production nevertheless passed, forthe first time in history, the level of 50 milliontons. For many years, voracious world demandtended to keep a step ahead of supply, in spite ofthe remarkable expansionof production capacity.During the past year or two, however surpluscapacity has gradually emerged. In North Amer-ica, reduced demand in 1957 caused productionto decline about 3 percent as compared with 1956but new capacity, earlier planned, continuedto come into operation and operating ratiosfell. In Europe, output of wood pulp tose by4 percent compared with 1956 ; there was,however, a slackening in the rate of growthduring the second half of the year. In otherparts of the world, notably in Japan and inthe Soviet Union, the steady growth of pulpproduction se,ems to have continued uninter-rupted throughout 1957.

In the first hall' of 1958, however, the checkto expansion and eV011 cuts in production, bothin Europe and North America, became moremarked, and the level of total output wassomewhat lower than in corresponding periodsof 1957. In the principal pulp-exporting coun-tries, output fell, particularly of unbleachedgrades of chemical pulp and mechanical pulp,the hater because the world newsprint marketweakened after mid-1957. The general emer-gence of surplus capacity also led. to increasedprice competition.

The volume of world trade in pulp and itsproducts in 1957 showed little change from1956, with a 20 percent increase in UnitedStates exports and 80111e decline in Europeanand Canadian exports. The decline in thesecountries' exports of mechanical pulp and un-bleached grades of chemical pulp was particu-larly marked, and contrasts strongly with thesubstantial growth of North American oversea,sexports of chemical pulps. These have, in fact,trebled from 1953 to 1957 and risen to closeon 1 million tons.

The outlook for 1958 indicates continuationof production at the, same level as in 1957.NeNV capacity planned earlier is still cominginto operation and will increase the temporaryunbalance between world demand and produc-tion capacity.

1V ewsprint

In 1957 world prod.uction of newsprint roseby only some 300,000 tons to 12.3 million tons.

The decline in the rate of production increasein all regions is clearly illustrated by the fol-lowing figures. In North America the annualgrowth from 1947 to 1955 was 4.9 percent,.from 1955 to 1956, 5.8 percent and from 1956to 1957, 1.4 percent ; in Europe the correspond-ing percentages were 8.6, 9.7 and 1.5, respec-tively ; and in the test of the world 15.9, 14.0and 7.7 respectively.

Reduced demand in the United States ledto a gradual accumulation of stocks there to-ward the middle of 1957, when they reachedall-time record levels, both in actual volumeand in terms of days' supplies. The immediateeffect was a gradual curtailment of Canadianoutput, which for the whole ye,ar 1957 show-ed a small decline on 1956. United Statesproduction, on the other hand, fuither increas-ed, giving a small rise in total Noith Americanoutput for the year as a whole ; in the secondhalf of 1957 it was, however, already lowerthan in the two preceding six-month periods.In other regions of the world, newsprint outputgenerally showed minor increases over th.e 1956level, though in a few European countries(Austria, Western Germany, and Norway) smalldeclines were observed.

In 1957, while the expansion in world demandfor newsprint slowed down, capacity in thisindustry also continued to expand. Operat-ing ratios, therefore, had to be reduced, firstin North America, but later also in the otherprincipal producing and exporting countries, asthe effects of the North American eXCOS8 capa-city were felt more strongly. In Canada, theoperating ratio in the newsprint industry, whichhad for the past ten years been at or above100 percent, fell to 95 percent as an averagefor the whole of 1957 ; by the end of 1957it had fallen to 81 percent. Since then therehas been some recovery, but the ratio stillremains under 90 percent. In the UnitedStates, where the newsprint industry is lessdependent on exports, the operating ratio atthe beginning of 1958 had nevertheless fallenbelow 90 percent. In Northern Europe thenewsprint industry, after many years of highoperating ratios, also experienced lower ones,varying about 90 percent.

The changing situation in the world news-print market in 1957 also affected the outputof mechanical pulp and particularly the pro-duction of market pulp, which was heavilycurtailed toward the beginning of 1958 in the

89

principal exporting countries, notably Finlandand Norway.

The outlook for 1958 indicates some possi-bility of further reductions in operating ratiosas more new capacity comes into operation.Consumption in the United States, which ac-counts for about half of total world consump-tion, was at a lower rate in the first half of 1958than in 1957. The longer-term outlook, how-ever, is favorable ; although the 1957/58 down-turn on the market may put a brake on manyfurther immediate expansion projects, demandwill soon catch up with capacity as populationgrows and per caput consumption increases.

Other paper and board

In 1957, wOrld production of paper (otherthan newsprint) and board (paper and fibre-board) further rose, by over 1.1 million tons,to about 52.28 million tons. The decline inNorth America of 460,000 tons of pape,r and400,000 tons of board wa3 more than com-pensated by increases in Europe and Asia(respectively 1.24 and 0.52 million tons morepaper and board than in 1956). It is worthrioting that the decline in North Am.aricanproduction due to the United States re-cession was still much smaller, both in actualvolume and in percentage of total production,than the declines recorded in 1949 and 1952.In the former year, output in other regionshad not been affected at all by the declinein United States demand, while the post-Koreandepression hit all the principal producingregions and countries alike. The 1953/54 reces-sion in the United States, on the other hand,was short-lived and coincided with the begin-ning of the general eC0110Illie upswing in WesternEurope. Paper and board production in Eu-rope and other parts of the world was conse-quently not affected by the 1953/54 develop-ments in the United States. Today, the *UnitedStates recession, generally considered more se-rious than the previous postwar ones, togetherwith the falling off of Europe's economicexpansion, may affect the paper and boardindustry more in the COUrSe of 1958 when thefull impact of the changing economic situationbecomes more apparent. During the earlymonths of the year, however, consumption andproduction of paper and board in Europe Ivaswell maintained, contrary to expectations. Tradein these products also seemed to have beenrelatively little affected so far.

Chapter III - FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENTS

IN AFRICA SOL TH OF THE SAHARA

FAO has published several studies of foodand agricultural developments in the Far East,Latin America, and the Near East, but thischapter is its first review of the over-all situa-tion in Africa, the fOurth of the major econom-ically underdeveloped regions. The chapteris confined to Africa South of the Sahara, 1for although this region is far from homoge-neous it presents less diversity than the con-tinent taken as a whole. It is intended as apreliminary review of the whole field of postwarfood and agricultural developments in this vastregion and it is therefore not possible to includemore than. the briefest account of many im-portant problems. It is hoped, however, thatthis summary will bring out the main similari-ties and differences between the food and agri-cultural situation and problems of Africa Southof the Sahara and those of the other under-developed regions and will help to focus attentionon the many questions requiring further study.

Tia.e chapter includes a fairly full account ofthe main postwar developments in productionand trade in agricultural, fisheries, and forestryproducts. Food consumption and nutrition,where improvements are fundamental in rais-ing levels of living, are also analyzed in somedetail, as this is a field in which FAO alreadyhas a rela,tively long experience in the region.Problems and progress in land utilization, soil-fertility and the technical aspects of agricul-tural, fisheries, and forestry production arereviewed, together with the organization ofresearch and of the training and extension serv-ices required to translate technical advancesinto actual production. Institutional changes

For the purpose of the present study, AfricaSouth of the Sahara is defined as covering all coun-tries and teiTitories (including islands) that formpart of the continent of Africa, except Algeria,Egypt, the Federation of Ethi.opia and Eritrea,Libya, Morocco, the Somalilancls, Spanish WestAfr.ica, Sudan, and Tunisia,

90

are then outlined, including adjustments inland tenure systems, the development of co-oper-atives, the organiza,tion of marketing and thewidespread establishment of schemes for thestabilization of producer prices. An accountis also given of the organization and financ-ing of agricultural development, especially theeconomic development plans that have been animportant influence in the postwar period, andof some aspects of agricultural, fisheries, andforestry policies. A concluding section empha-sizes some of the major problems that emergein the course of the chapter.

Before embarking on this review it is necessaryto set out briefly certain background factorsand to indicate some of the main respects inwhich Africa South of the Sahara differs fromthe other economically underdeveloped regions,whose characteristics are more familiar to mostreaders of this report.

INTRODUCTION

The region contains as many as 32 differentcountries and territories or no less than 47 ifthe individual territories in .the Federation of'Rhodesia and Nyasaland, French_ EquatorialAfrica and French West Africa and the regionscomprising the Federation of Nigeria are count-ed separately.2 Ghana, Liberia, and the Unionof South Africa are independent countries.The Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasalandis self-governing, with two of i.ts componentterritories administered, however, by the 'UnitedKingdom. All the rest of the region is under

Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland : North-ern Rhodesia, Nyasaland, an.d Southern RhodesiaFrench Equatorial Africa : Chad, Gabon, MiddleCongo, and Ubangi-Shari ; French West AfricaDahomey, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, Niger,Senegal, Sudan, and Upper Volta ; Nigeria : East-ern., Northern, an.d Western Regions and SouthernCameroons.

the jurisdiction of either Belgium, France,Portugal, Spain or the 'United Kingdom ; theseareas differ greatly in their precise status, butfor convenience they will all be described inthe course of this study as the dependent oroverseas territories of the respective metropoli-tan countries.

As a result of this predominance of dependentterritories, a very large part of the trade of theregion is with the metropolitan countries.Grants and loans from metropolitan govern-ments 8,nd loans guaranteed by them are animportant source of finance for the develop-ment plans of SOMe territories, while there hasalso been a considerable flow of private capitalfrom the metropolitan countries, especially formining and latterly also industry. Agriculturaland other services are staffed largely by tech.-nicians from the metropolitan countries, whoseeducational facilities are also available for thetraining of African personnel. Some territoriesshare various common services, such as thenumerous interterritorial institutes for differentbranches of agricultural research.

Agricultural and other resources vary greatly.Some areas with considerable mineral resourcesare now a,mong the more developed parts ofthe region, for minerals have attracted capitaland stimulated the building of railways. Therapid development of the Union of South Africa,now economically the most developed countryin Africa, was initially founded on its mineralwealth, especially gold, diamonds, and coal.The Copper Belt of Northern Rhodesia and theKatanga, and Kasai areas in the Belgian Congoare other ver:y important centers of the mineralindustry. 1V1inerals also figure prominently inthe exports of Angola, French Guinea, Ghana,Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Southern Rho-desia, South West Africa and Swaziland, forinstance, while in some other areas there aremineral deposits which have as yet been littleexploited.

Known coal resources are relatively small andthe great bulk of the region's forest productionis therefore used as fuel. Coal milling is mainlyconcentrated in Southern Rhodesia and theUnion of South Africa, where an abundance oflow-cost coal has enabled the rapid developmentof both mineral and secondary industries. Else-where the lack of power supplies has been afactor limiting the growth of industry, but since

the war a number of large schemes have beenundertaken to harness the region's great hydro-electric potential, many of them also opening

91

up irrigation possibilities and some makingpossible the local production of fertilizers.

Some arcas in the center of the region aremore than 2,500 kilometers from the coast.Transport is everywhere a crucial problem andhas received top priority in most of the postwardevelopment programs. Natural deep-waterharbors are rare, sand bars and breakers gen-erally entailing the transfer of goods by lighteror surfboat. Navigable stretches of river areseparated by frequent rapids. The use of ani-mal transport is limited both by the tsetse flyand by water supplies, and head-loading re-mains a,n important means of transport, espe-cially of agricultural products. Railways stillserve only rather limited parts of the region,while in many areas roads are impassable inthe rainy season.

Comparable national income estimates areas yet available for only few parts of the region.The United Nations has recently comparedestimates of the per caput net national productat factor cost of 55 countries in terms of 'UnitedStates dollars3 and, while such internationalcomparisons have many limitations, these esti-mates give an approximate idea of the positionof Africa South of the Sahara in relation to therest of the world. It was estimated that inthe Union of South Africa th.e per caput netnational product averaged about 300 UnitedStates dollars per annum in 1952-54, in theFederation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland 100dollars, the Belgian Congo 70 dollars, Kenya60 dollars, and Uganda 50 dollars. The Unionof South. Africa fell into the same class as Austria,Ireland, Italy, and a number of countriesin Latin America, while the other areas werein the lowest income group, together with mostof the underdeveloped countries for which com-parable data were available. The range of 50to 70 dollars found for the Belgian Congo, Kenya,and Uganda was the sume as for Burma, India,Korea, and Pakistan.

Population

Demographic data remain very inadequate,in spite of recent improvements, and their lackis an important obstacle to realistic develop-ment planning.

3 Per Capita National .Product of Fifty-five Coun-tries : 1t52 P154, Statistical Papers, Series E, No. 4,United _Nations, Sales No. 1957.XV:11.2, New York,1957.

According to United Nations estimates, thetotal population of Africa South of the Saharaincreased from about 109 million in mid-1936to about 148 million in inid-1956, or by rathermore than one third in 20 years. Even inthis short period and bearing in mind theinaccuracy of the statistics, it is clear that therehas been an acceleration in the rate of growth,the calculated annual average rate rising from1.4 percent between 1936 and 1950 to 1.9 percentin the more recent period. Though substan-tially above the world average, this latter figureis much less than the high rates estimated forLatin America and the Near East and it seemsprobable that, with hnprovements in medicalservices, incomes, and nutrition, there will bea continued acceleration for some time.

A major feature of the region is the low popu-lation density in most areas, which is one ofthe reasons why accurate demographic a,nd alsoagricultural statistics are so difficult and costlyto obtain. It is estimated that in 1956 therewere on an average only just over seven personsto the square kilometer (including inland water),compared with an average of 20 for the worldas a whole, while among the main regions onlyOceania was more sparsely populated. Thus,in many territories labor shortage and the smallsize of the local market are yet further limita-tions on the development of industry. Apartfrom certain densely populated small islandsand also the industrial and mining areas ofthe Union of South Africa, the highest popu-lation densities are found in Nigeria (with anaverage of almost 100 per square kilometer inthe Eastern Region) and Ruanda-Urundi.

Urbanization is occurring rapidly in some partsof the region. Dakar (French West Africa) andLeopoldville (Belgian Congo), for example, nowhave populations of more than 300,000, comparedwith only about 90,000 aaid 46,000, respectively,before the war. In the Union of South Africathe urban population is estimated to have risenfrom 33 percent of the total in 1936 to 42 percentin 1951, the urbanized proportion of the indig-enous population increasing from 19 to 27 per-cent. In many cases there is a steady turnoverof pOpulation between urban and rural areas.The mines of the Union of South Africa, forinstance, draw their labor from a very widearea, including neighboring territories, mencoming without their families to work for aperiod before returning to their villages. Thisexodus of able-bodied males has affected agri-cultural production in some areas.

92

Data on agricultural population are veryscarce. Official estimates indicate that 77 per-cent of the population in Northern Rhodesia,92 percent in Nyasaland, and 84 percent ofthe indigenous population in the Belgian Congoare agricultural. FAO's approximate continen-tal estimates give a figure of 74 percent forAfrica in 1950, compared with 70 percent forAsia and 60 percent for South America.

1VIention must be made of the European popu-lation of the region, for alth.ough this constitutesonly about 2 percent of the total, in some areasEuropeans play ami important part in agricul-tural production as well as in mining and in-dustry. In the Union of South Africa 21 per-cent of the population is of European originEuropeans hold about 89 percent of the agri-cultural land and are responsible for the bulkof agricultural production, including most ofthe maize, which is the staple food of the Africanpopulation of the country. In South WestAfrica 12 percent of the population is European,in Southern Rhodesia 7 percent, and in NorthernRhodesia 2 percent ; in these territories alsothey produce the major part of agriculturaloutput, including much of the staple food ofthe indigenous population. While elsewhereEuropeans number less than some 1 to 2percent of the total population, in such terri-tories as Angola, the Belgian Congo, Kenya,Mozambique, Spanish Guinea, Swaziland, andTanganyika, for example, their agriculturalproduction is substantial. In most of WestAfrica, hoi,vever, their numbers are very small.The other immigrant populations that are im-portant in some arcas play little part in agricul-ture, except in the marketing of export produce(e.g., the Lebanese and Syrian traders in WestAfrica).

Physical Factors

The main physical factors that influence andset limitations on the agricultural productionof Africa South of the Sahara can be introducedonly briefly, though some of the more importantfactors will be discussed in more detail in laterparts of this chapter.

Except for the most southerly part of the re-gion, Africa South of the Sahara, lies within thetropics. Rainfall, in which there are great var-iations within the region, is the main limitingfactor for plant growth. At one extreme, onthe Sahara borders and in the Kalahari desert,the mean annual rainfall is less than 25

centimeters, while at the other extreme largeareas, mainly in West and Central Africa,receive an average of more than 150 centimeters,rising as high as 1,000 centimeters in a fewplaces (Figure III - 1 [a]).

In the drier parts of the region average rain-fall figures based on a period of years are mislead-ing, as there are sharp fluctuations from yearto year, both in the quantity of rainfall and inthe timing of the short rainy season. Cropproduction in these areas is therefore veryuncertain in the absence of irrigation and stor-age, and water supplies also limit the numberof livestock that can be maintained. Where, therainfall is adequate, drainage and flood controlare often necessary and sharp tropical downpourscause erosion when the soil has been denudedof adequate) cover. Here the tsetse fly, ratherthan water supply, is often the main obstacleto livestock production.

Except for limited areas, relatively little isknown about the behavior and management ofthe soils of Africa South of the Sahara. Thepredominant soil group is the combined Latosoland Red-Yellow Podzolic one. Latosols (mainly

FIGURE III-1 (a). Africa South of the SaharaMean Annual Rainfall

cm.

- 25

25 - 75

75 - 150

150 - 250

over 250

inches

- 10

10 - 30

30 - 60

60 - 100

over 100

93

Red and Reddish-Brown Lateritic soils) arecharacterized by being strongly weathered,highly leached, rich in clay, and are usuallyacid. They are generally less erosive thanother soils and they are potentially very pro-ductive, though requiring a very high standardof management. The Red-Yellow Podzolicsare low in mineral plant rood and, lilce the Lato-sols, are highly leached. The erosion hazardis greater than on the Latosols, but their po-tential also is high, although fertilizer applica-tions and other management practices are essen-tial for increased production. While the DarkGray and Black soils occupy a relatively smallarea, they are important to the agriculturaldevelopment of the region. The soils are char-acterized by a high clay content, poor structure,and inadequate natural drainage ; iniproveddrainage and irrigation methods, use of fertiliz-ers, and better tillage equipment are requiredfor these soils. In much of the southern partof the region there are Chestnut, Brown, and

FIGURE III-1 (b). Africa South of the SaharaSchematic Soil Map

6'

U.S.D.A./FAO Soil Survey.

Dark Gray and Black soils of the Tropics and Subtropics

Chestnut, Brown, and Reddish-Brown soils

Sierozems, Desert, and Red Desert soils

Latosols and Red-Yellow Podzolic soils

Soils of Mountains and Mountain Valleys (Complex)

In addition to the above soil groups, small but important areas of Allu-vial soils, not shown on the map, occur in various parts of the region.

Reddish-Brown soils. They all have a relati-vely good supply of organic matter and are mo-derately high in fertility, although fhey arenot usually productive without irrigation, whileconservation practices are also necessary toconserve moisture and prevent the soil fromblowing. The Sierozems, Desert, and Red Des-ert soils found in the driest part of the regionhave an excellent potential, though many prob-lems are involved in their utilization. Wateris the dominating limiting factor, although ero-sion can be a problem because of scanty surfacecover, wind, and occasional torrential rainstorms.The Alluvial soil areas are normally not exten-sive, but are intermixed within the oth.er greatsoil groups. They come from a wide varietyof materials and are mostly inherently fertile,the major management problem usually beingwater control. Their proper management can

FIGURE III-1 (c). Africa South of the SaharaSchematic Vegetation Map

Reproduced by kind permission of the author,J.P. Harroy, from his Afrique, turre qui meurt.

Rain forest

E 3 Seasonal forest

Tree savannah

Shrub savannah and thorny savannah

Eaa Desert and subdesert

Montane formations

Mediterranean vegetation

94

enhance the agricultural potential of any areain which they occur (Figue III -

Several different classifications have beenattempted of the vegeta,tion cover of AfricaSouth of the Sahara. A detailed discussion ofthis subject would not be appropriate here,but one of these classifications is shown inFigure III - 1(c) in order to indicate the posi-tion in the region of the main areas of forest,savannah, and desert. A comparison withFigure III - 1(a) clearly brings out the dominantinfluence of rainfall on vegetation conditionsand thus on agricultural production.

The Agriculture of Africa South of theSahara

Africa South of the Sahara contains about15 percent of the total land surface (includinginland water) of the earth and onfy about 5percent of the total population. Its share ofthe world's total of arable land and land undertree crops is also about 15 percent, of forestedland 17 percent, and of pasture 18 percent. Itis estimated that the region contains some 200million hectares of arable land and land undertree crops, 450 million hectares of pasture, and640 million hectares of forests.

Purely on the basis of these figures the regionwould appear to have a very great agriculturalpotential, but it is already clear from the phys-ical factors mentioned above that there aremany limitations on the rea,lization of thispotential. In addition, further limitations are'imposed by the primitive techniques of prod-uction at present practiced in mo.3t of theregion. Different forms of shifting cultivationare widespread ; not only are they destruc-tive of forest resources but they require veryextensive areas of latid and, with increasingpopulation pressure, are thus inadequate tomaintain the fertility of the so.il. In the climat-ic, soil, and social conditions of Africa Southof the Sahara, however, these methods cannotsimply be replaced by those found successfulin other regions. Much further study is neededof African agricultural techniques and of theways in which they are adapted to local con-ditions. A further obstacle to increased agri-cultural production is the tribal systems ofland tenure, ill adapted to the production ofsurpluses for sale and to improved techniques,that still prevail over most of the region. Theinadequacy of marketing and transport facili-

ties also hampers agricultural development inmany areas. Two thirds of the forests areinaccessible and less than half of the accessibleones are at present exploited ; their heteroge-neous nature is a major difficulty in commercialexploitation.

Thus Africa South of the Sahara producesonly about 4 percent of the world's total agri-cultural output4 and about 6 percent of totalremovals of roundwood, -while as much as ninetenths of the latter is used for fuel. About 5percent of the world total catch of fish comesfrom Africa South of the Sahara and two thirdsof this is concentrated in only three adjacentareas : Angola, South West Africa, and theUnion of South Africa. In world trade in agri-cultural products the region looms a little largerand is estimated to account for nearly 10 percentof its total value. In 1954-56 it was responsiblefor about 90 percent of world exports of palmkernels and oil, 70 percent of groundnuts andoil, 65 percent of palm oil and of cacao, and60 percent of sisal. Among forestry exports,only broadleaved lOgs, with 35 percent of thetotal, are important in world supplies.

Most territories are very largely agriculturaland depend on agricultural eXports for theirforeign earnings. Their economies are there-fore dominated by fluctuations in the worldprices of the above and other export commodi-ties, while in many cases their vulnerabilityto these fluctuations is increased as their exportsconsist almost entirely of only one or t-wo prod-ucts. The diversification of exports, support-ed by international and national measuresfor price stabilization, is thus of major impor-tance in the region. Furthermore, most of theoutput of the chief export crops comes fromsmall-scale indigenous producers. Groundnuts,cacao, and cotton in particular are mainly pro-duced by small indigenous units. At the otherextreme, the export production of bananas,citrus fruit, and sisal comes largely from Euro-pean plantations, while almost all of the region'swool is the product of European farmers in theUnion of South Africa. Most other exportsfall into an intermediate position ; the bulk oftheir production comes from African farmers,but there is also a substantial production byEuropeans in some areas, especially in Central,East, and Southern Africa.

4 Based on the price-weighted aggregates of theFAO regional and world production indices.

95

It is of interest that a large number of themain export crops, for example cacao, ground-nuts, rubber, and tobacco, have been introducedfrom other regions, in some cases comparativelyrecently. Even more striking, however, is thefact that maize, cassava, and sweet potatoes,which now form a very substantial part of thefood supplies of the region, were all introducedfrom America. The rapid spread of theseproducts suggests that African habits, and no-tably dietary patterns, are more susceptible tochange than is often supposed.

In spite of the importance of export cropsand the fact that technical and marketing im-provements have so far been chiefly concentratedon this sector, the great bulk of agriculturalproduction is for local consumption. Much ofit, possibly a larger proportion than in anyother region, is for subsistence. For this reasonand also because of the prevalence of mixedcropping and of irregular plots (especially in theforest zone), accurate statistics of the productionand consumption of local food crops are verydifficult to obtain. Another special difficultyis that the yield of cassava, a very importantfood crop in many parts of the region, variessubstantially according to how soon it is har-vested. A major postwar development, how-ever, has been a great improvement in thecollection of agricultural statistics through theapplication of modern sampling methods, thoughin most areas these statistics are still far fromadequate.

Local food crops are also receiving increasedattention through the relatively large numberof dietary surveys and general enquiries intoconsumption and budgets that are now beingconducted in many parts of the region. Mostly,these surveys reveal that local food productionis almost as lacking in diversity as is productionfor export. In most areas proteins (especiallyof animal origin) and also certain vitamins andminerals are found to be lacking in the diet,while the pre-harvest shortage or " hungryseason " is still a problem in many of the drierparts of the region. It is clear that some sharpreadjustments in production patterns are neededin order to provide more adequate diets. To-gether with the generally low levels of produc-tivity and consequently of income, this is themost disquieting aspect of the otherwise fairlyencouraging picture of recent food and agricul-tural developments that emerges from thefollowing review.

POSTWAR TRENDS IN AGRICUL-TURAL PRODUCTION, TRADE, ANDPRICES

The production and exports of agricultural,fishery, and forestry products appear to haveincreased very rapidly in Africa South of theSahara since the war. While the region is asubstantial net exporter of agricultural products,the smaller volume of agricultural imports hasalso increased at a similar rate. World pricesfor the major agricultural exports of the regionhave fluctuated sharply during the period underreview ; folloi,ving a rise to unprecedented levelsin 1951, they have been falling in the last fewyears and there have been sharp reductions inthe export earnings of many territories. Inmany cases, however, producers have been tosome extent protected from these fluctuationsby various sehemes for the stabilization of pro-ducer prices.

Before examining these trends in more detail,together with some of the basic characteristicsof the agricultural production and trade ofAfrica South of the Sahara, certain more generaltrends, including those in the growing non-agricultural sector, will first be outlined.

General Economic Trends 5

The postwar period has seen a rapid growthin economic activity in the region. The expan-sion has resulted chiefly from a strong demandin the industrialized countries for agriculturaland mineral exports, though this has tended toslacken in the last few years, and from the com-paratively high level of investment that hasbeen sustained, in part through public expend-iture on development plans.

Production has increased rapidly in all sectors,the output of most minerals rising even fasterthan agricultural production. The rather smalloutput of electric power has also shown a verysharp increase, while several large hydroelectricschemes are at present under construction.Although most of the expansion in manufactur-ing has been in the -Union of South Africa andthe Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland,there has also been significant growth, especiallyin the manufacture of construction materials

5 This summary is based mainly on data in Eco-nomic Developments in Africa 1955-1956, UnitedNations, Sales No. 1957.11.0.3, New York, 1957,and earlier documents in the same series, to whichreference should be made for fuller details of thegrowth of economic activity.

96

and textiles, in other areas where industrializa-tion is less well established. A further indicationof the progress of the money economy is thatthe total number of wage earners is increasingin most territories for which data are available.

While agricultural production in the Unionof South Africa is very substantial, agriculture,forestry, and fishing accounted for only 14 per-cent of the net domestic product in 1955/56.Private manufacturing and construction contrib-uted as much as 23 percent and mining, whichbefore the war was still the largest sector, onlyabout 13 percent. Mining is by far the biggestcontributor to the net domestic product ofNorthern Rhodesia, but in all other territoriesfor which data are available agriculture is stillthe largest single sector of the economy, thoughmining is important in the Belgian Congo, SierraLeone and some other areas. It is of interestthat in Ghana, transport and trade togetheralready account for a slightly larger proportionof the national income than agriculture, forestry,and fishing.

With the" notable exception of gold, worldprices for the region's agricultural and mineralexports have fluctuated considerably during thepostwar period. Most prices rose to excep-tional levels under the influence of the Koreanboom but have subsequently been falling moreor less steadily, so that the export revenues ofmany tenitories have recently declined. Asimports have in inost cases continued to growin volume a,nd value or have fallen more slowly,trade balances have tended to deteriorate.Among the larger territories, only Angola, theBelgian Congo, the Federation of Rhodesia andNyasaland, Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria, and Tanga-nyika regularly have favorable trade balances,but in some recent years several of these areasalso have shown a deficit. Government reve-nues, of which a large part comes from exportand import duties, have also declined from thehigh levels of the boom years ; in some terri-tories these revenues are an important sourceof development finance.

In recent years the proportion of recordedintra-regional trade has remained roughly con-stant at some 10 to 12 percent of the total valueof trade. Trade within the region is limited,as most territories export primary products andimport manufactured goods and also becauseof poor communications. A large part of thistrade consists of exports from the 'Union ofSouth Africa to the Federation of Rhodesiaand Nyasaland. Exports, mainly of manufac-

tured goods and food products, from the Unionof South Africa to this and other areas withinthe region, have increased quite rapidly, espe-cially in the earlier part of the postwar period.The rest of the region took about 20 percent ofthe total value of exports of the Union of SouthAfrica in 1956, as against 10 percent before thewar ; this country's imports from within theregion increased from 2 to 7 percent in the sameperiod.

The main postwar tendencies in the directionof exports from Africa South of the Sahara havebeen efforts to increase exports to the dollararea, coupled with dollar-saving by the metro-politan countries, who have tended to importfrom their overseas territories a larger share ofcommodities normally deriVed from dollarsources. Exports to the Metropolitan country in1955 were 60 percent of the total value in theFrench territories, 51 percent in the Belgian,47 percent in the British, 6 and 30 percent inthe Portuguese territories, though in some ofthese cases part is re-exported, sometimes afterfurther processing. In 1955, as much as 20percent of the total value of exports of thePortuguese territories went to the dollar areafor the other grotips of dePendent territories theproportion was of the order of 10 to 15 percent.The dollar arca accounted for 20 percent of theimports of the Belgian Congo and for 12 perceptof those of the Portuguese territories, but inother areas this proportion was much smaller.

With the incidence of exchange and importcontrol, the metropolitan countries have tendedto be more important sources of imports fortheir dependent territories than before the warin more recent years, however, the overall trendin their contribution to imports has been down-ward, though there have been sharp fluctuationsfrom year to year. In 1955, France suppliedas much as 65 percent of the imports of itsoverseas territories in Africa South of the Sahara,while at the other extreme Belgium suppliedonly 36 percent of those of the Belgian Congo,where, as mentioned above, there are substantialimports from the dollar area.

Of the remaining parts of the region, Liberiais in the dollar area and in 1955, 87 percent ofits export trade and 62 percent of its importtrade was with the United States. In the sameyear the United Kingdom accounted for about

6 Including also the exports of the Federation of:Rhodesia and Nyasaland and of Ghana to the Unit-ed Kingdom.

97

one third of both the imports and exports of theUnion of South Africa, though before the warthe proportion was as high as 43 percent forimports and 38 percent for exports. Aboutone quarter of the imports of the Union of SouthAfrica were from the dollar area in 1955, butless than 10 percent of its exports went to thisdestination.

A recent development which may influencethe trade patterns outlined above is the creationof the European Economic Community. TheBelgian and French territories are within theCommon Market as associated teriitories, butthe rest of the region will face the commontariff barrier of the six European countries.The other territories in Africa South of theSahara also fear increased competition in othermarkets from the Belgian and French terri-tories, where they expect production to be stimu-lated. It appears, however, that the effectsof the Common Market are likely to be exceed-ingly gradual, while, for the ma,in exportsfrom non-associated territories in Africa Southof the Sahara to the Common Market countries,the common tariff has been set relatively lowfor cacao and coffee and at nil for oilseeds.

Agricultural ProductionIn studying trends in agricultural production

in Africa South of the Sahara, the unreliabilityof much of the statistical material must alwaysbe borne in mind. The special difficulties ofestimating the production of commodities otherthan the few that are almost entirely exportedhave already been emphasized. Most prewarstatistics are particularly suspect and, whilesome will be quoted for comparison, the presentanalysis will be based mainly on the more recentyears, for which data are probably at least ade-quate for the evaluation of broad trends andorders of magnitude.

Agricultural production appears to have in-creased remarkably rapidly since the war inthe region taken as a whole. The estimatedaverage annual rate of increase of about 3 per-cent since 1948-52 exceeds that of all the othermajor regions except the Near East. The up-ward movement is estimated to have been par-ticularly sharp in 1952/53 and 1954/55, partlybecause of espeeially good harvests in the Unionof South Africa. In spite of an acceleration inpopulation growth, per caput agricultural pro-clUction appears now to be about 20 percentbetter than before the war, though it seems to

TABLE III-1 . AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA : INDICES OF VOLUME OF AGRICULTURAL, FISHERIES,AND FORESTRY PRODUCTION COMPARED WITH GROWTH OF POPULATION

have leveled off since 1955/56 with a slightslowing down in the rate of increase of totalproduction. The estimated expansion in thetotal catch of fish is even more striking than inagricultural production, while total removalsof roundwood from the region's forests, althoughstill very largely used for fuel, appear to haveincreased slightly in the last few years (TableIII-1 and Figure III-2).

Little information is available on trends intotal agricultural production in individual areas,but the official indices of the volume of agricul-tural production published for the Belgian Congoand the Union of South Africa tend to confirmthe high rate of increase indicated by the FAOindex for Africa South of the Sahara shownin Table III-1. In the Belgian Congo, cropproduction in 1956 was estimated at 148 per-cent of the 1947-49 average, indicating an annualincrease of about 5 percent. In the Union ofSouth Africa, which may account for as machas one fifth of the total agricultural produetionof the region, 8 the index in 1956/57 reached176 percent of the 1936-38 average, the annualincrease over the 1948-52 average being about5 percent.

The rapid growth of agricultura] productionin Africa South of the Sahara, though satisfac-tory, should not, however, be allowed to obscure

7 Livestock products are not included in this in-dex.

Based on the comparison of the price-weightedaggregates of the FAO production index for theUnion of South Africa with those for Africa Southof the Sahara.

98

its low level. While no precise measure ofagricultural productivity is possible, the price-weighted aggregates of the FAO productionindex suggest that the actual level of per caputproduction is less than three quarters of thealready very low -world average and onlyabout one third more than in the Far East.

FIGURE III-2. Africa South of the SaharaTrends in Agricultural Production and in Popu-lation Compared with the World as a Whole

Indices : 1948-52 Average 100

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

Average annualincrease

ITEM Average1934-38 1953/54 1954/55 1955/56 1956/57 (Prolirnin.)

1957/58Prewar to

1948-521948-52 to

1957/58

Indices: 1948-52 average 100 Percentage . . . .

TOTAL PRODUCTION

Agriculture 75 112 118 121 123 124 2.0 3.1Fisheries 244 153 158 162 176 37.1 499Forestry 6 103 108 108 107 41.2

Population 82 106 108 110 112 114 1.4 1.9

PER CAPUT PRODUCTION

Agriculture 91 106 109 110 110 109 0.6 1.2Fisheries 1 252 145 147 149 159 35.7 48.0Forestry 97 100 98 96 40.7

Total catch (whole fresh weight), calendar year. 2 1938. 3 1938 to 1948-52. 4 1948-52 to 1956. 'Total removalsof roundwood, calendar year.

1934-38 1948/49 1950/51 1952/53 1954/55 1956/57average

AfrIca South of Sahara : PopulationAfrica South of Sahara : Agricultural productionWorld : PopulationWorld : Agricultural Production

Subsistence Production. A principal chara,cter-istic of agricultural production in Africa Southof the Sahara is the very high proportion oftotal output that is not marketed but is con-sumed by the producers and their families.

It has been estimated° that in a sample ofnine of the larger territories,10 representingabout two thirds of the total population of theregion, subsistence agricultural production ac-counted around 1950 for some 65 to 75 percentof the total land area cultivated by the indige-nous population.11 The proportion was up-wards of 60 percent or so in all areas exceptGhana, where it was estimated to be as lowas 20 to 30 percent. It was also estimated thatabout 60 percent of the total adult male popu-lation of these territories was engaged in subsis-tence production. While comparable estimatesof the place occupied by subsistence agricultureare not ava,ilable for other parts of the world, itseems unlikely that these high figures are ex-ceeded elsewhere.12

The movement from subsistence to anexchange economy is the most basic aspect ofagricultural development in Africa South of theSahara, but data indicating the rate of this move-ment are very scarce. The only indication is givenby the statistics of production and sales pub-lished annually for the Belgian Congo. In thisterritory, total indigenous crop production andthe quantity sold are estimated to have increas-ed at about the same rate up to 1954, butin the two following years sales, especially ofmaize, rice, cassava, and peas and beans, appearto have risen much more sharply than productionand in 1956 the index of quantities sold stoodat 173 (1947-49 = 100), compared with 136

a Enlargement of the Exchange Economy in TropicalAfrica, United Nations, Sales No. 1954.II.C.4, NewYork, 1954.

10 Belgian Congo, French Equatorial Africa, FrenchWest Africa, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Southern Rho-desia, Tanganyika and Uganda.

1/ It appears that tho inclusion of the relativelysmall area cultivated by the non-indigenous popu-lation would not greatly lower this proportion.

la In India the National Sample Survey (1952)suggests that nearly half the economy in rural areasis non-monetized and perhaps a little moro thanone third of the economy as a whole. It is alsoestimated that for the main food grains (whichcover throe quarters of the cultivated area) some55 to 76 percent of the total tonnage, dependingon the crop, is not marketed (Indian Agriculture inBrief, Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Delhi,1956, p. 56).

99

for the index of indigenous crop production."The apparent stability in the earlier years of theproportion of production that is marketed, sug-gests that in the region as a whole, in most ofwhich the growth of urban markets is occurringless rapidly than in the Belgian Congo, therehas probably been rather little chane in theproportion of total a,gricultural production ac-counted for by" subsistence.

Production for Local Consumption and forExport. While in many areas research., market-ing improvements, etc., have been focused to alarge extent on export crops, it appears that therelative magnitude of agricultural resources de-voted to these creps is rather less than is oftenassumed. Export crops are estimated to ac-count for only about 15 percent of the total areacultivated by the indigenous population, orabout the same as crops sold on domestic mar-kets.14 In French Equatorial Africa, Ghana,and Uganda, however, the area of export cropswas estimated to exceed substantially that ofcrops marketed for domestic consumption,while in Ghana it was even greater than thesubsistence category. In a few other terri-tories, mostly small ones such as Gambia, Mauri-tius, the Seychelles, and Zanzibar, agriculturalcensus data indicate that export crops occupya greater area than crops for local consumption(i.e., subsistence plus crops marketed locally).In some of these cases, especially Mauritius,where sugar cane occupies about 85 percent ofthe arable land, the bulk of food supplies isimported.

In terms of value, the share of export cropsin the production of the region as a whole is,of course, much greater, though no precise esti-mate is possible. The total value of the higher-priced and generally higher-yielding exportcrops is likely to exceed greatly that of cropsmarketed locally, but it is prObably much lessthan the total value of subsistence and localmarketings together.

Similarly, it is difficult to assess trends in therelative production of crops for export and forlocal consumption, as statistics for the latter

"La situation &onomigue au Congo beige et auRuanda- Urundi en 1956, Minister() des colonies,Brussels, 1957, pp. 31-35, and earlier issues of thisreport.

" Enlargement of the Exchange Economy in Tropi-cal Africa, United Nations, Sales No. 1954.II.C.4,New York, 1954. Approximate calculations indi-cate that tho inclusion of non-indigenous produc-tion would make little difference.

FIGURE III-3. Africa South of the Sahara : Indicesof the Production of the Main Commodities and

Commodity Groups

1956/57-1957/58 Average as Percentage of 1948/49-1952/53Average'

NOTE: Figures on chart represent thousand metric tons, except forindustrial wood. For livestock products, increase estimated onbzsis of price-weighted aggregates.

For fish and industrial wood, 1956. 2Excluding fisheries and for-estry products.

category are so unreliable. Even the total pro-duction of some of the main exports is notaccurately known, for only in the case of cacao,coffee, palm kernels, and sisal is there now nosignificant local consumption. Generally speak-ing, in the absence, as in most of Africa Southof the Sahara, of severe population pressure onland resources, subsistence production may beassumed to increase at least as fast as popula-tion, except when there are occasional cropfailures. As is in.dicated in Figure 111-3, theavailable estimates suggest that some of thecommodities that are mainly exported (especiallyrubber and coffee) are tending to increase

100

somewhat faster than those which are largelyor partly consumed locally. It is probabletherefore that in the region as a whole the rela,tive importance of export products may begrowing, though only gradually in view of themuch greater volume of production for domesticconsumption.

Because of the great preponderance of pro-duction for local consumption, in most areas anincrease in the proportion of exports means somediversification of the production pattern. Onlyin the few cases mentioned above, where foodproduction is very small, might diversificationimply a contrary movement towards an increas-ed proportion of local food crops. More often,however, the diversification of production, whichoccupies much attention in agricultural policy-making in some parts of the region, is envisagedwithin rather than between the two sectors ofproduction for local consumption and for export.The general lack of diversity in the food pro-duced for local consumption is discussed in theconsideration of nutritional matters in anotherpart of this chapter, while the diversification ofexport production is best dealt with in connec-tion with the agricultural trade of the region.

Trade in Agricultural ProductsAgricultural Exports. The over-all volume of

agricultural exports appears to have grown atan even faster rate than the volume of produc-tion, a further indication that export productionis tending to increase faster than productionfor local consumption.

Much of the growth in the volume of exportswas concentrated in the years 1954-56, whenthere wa,s a very sharp upward movement.While production and exports roughly keptpace up to 1953, exports then grew muchfaster and by 1956 were 144 percent of the1948-52 average, compared with 123 percentfor production. Preliminary data indicate thatin 1957, however, the, previous year's very highlevel of exports was not quite maintained. Inthe world as a whole the volume of agri-cultural exports stayed more or less at theprewar level until 1954, since when there hasbeen a fairly rapid rise, but in no region hasit been as fast as in Africa South of theSahara, both in the more recent period and incomparison with the prewar level (Table 111-2).

Most of the main products have shared equallyin the recent upsurge in the volume of the re-gion's agricultural exports with the principal

All agricultura products2

RUBBER 120

TEA I 35

FISH 1,530

COFFEE1

442

INDUSTRIAL WOOD 10,700 rri

BANANAS

GROUNDNUTS 3,,312

SUGAR1

1, 891

SISAL1

3121

CITRUS FRUIT 217(

TOBACCO 1461

WOOL 147,

COTTON 2721

LIVESTOCK PROD(excl. WOOL)

RICE 2,925

OTHER CEREALS 18,900

ROOTSISTARCHY

51,769

PALM OIL 931

PALM KERNELS 826

COCOA 543

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260

FIGURE III-4. Africa South of the Sahara : Indicesof the Volume of Exports of the Main Agricultural

Prod ucts

1956 as Percentage of 1948-52 Average

PALM KERNELS ANO OIL(OIL EQUIVALENT) 375

COCOA 453 I

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260

Note : Figures cn chart represent thousand metric tons, except forbroadleaved logs.

101

exceptions of cacao and oil pabn products(Figure 111-4).

The total value (at current prices) of agricul-tural exports from Africa South of the Saharahas moved much less evenly, as is shown inTable 111-2 and Figure 111-5. This uneventrend has resulted mainly from the sharp fluc-tuations that have occurred in world prices.Table 111-3 Shows indices of the average unitvalues realized by the major agricultural exportsof Africa South of the Sahara. Average unitvalues rose by as much as 30 percent in 1951under the influence of the Korean boom, almostevery product sharing in this increase. In1952 and. 1953 they fell fairly sharply, recover-ing in 1954, however, to a level only about 4percent below the 1951 peak, almost entirelyas a result of a 60 percent rise in cacao prices.In 1955 average unit values fell by 14 per-cent, the most abrupt fall in any single post-war year, and there was a further large declinein 1956, decreasing prices for both cacao andcoffee being the main factor in these two years.In 1952 and 1953, however, the rise in volumewas sufficient to offset the decline in unit values,and in 1956 it was so great as to cause a slightrise in the total value as well, in Spite of thesubstantial drop in unit values (Figure III-5).

The figures quoted for total and unit valuesof agricultural exports are at current prices.While no precise calculation in " real " terms

TABLE 111-2. AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA: TRENDS IN AGRICULTUR,AL EXPORTS COMPARED WITH THEWORLD AS A WHOLE AND WITH THE VOLUME OF PRODUCTION

1 Crop year, beginning in the year stated. 2 Deflated by United Nations index of the average unit value of manufacturedproducts in world trade.

ITEM 1934-38Average 1953 1951 1955 1956 1957

(Prelim.)

Indices: 1948-52 average 100

Africa South of the SaharaVolume of agricultural production ' . . 75 112 118 121 123 124Volume of agricultural exports 81 114 123 129 144 143Total value of agricultural exports. . . 22 118 140 129 131Average unit value of agricultural exports 28 104 114 100 92" Real " average unit value of agricultural

exports 53 102 114 99 88

World

Volume of agricultural production ' . . 110 111 115 120 119Volume of agricultural exports 10.7 107 107 114 125 127Total value of agricultural exports . . . 33 106 107 108 115 120Average unit value of agricultural exports 31 99 100 95 92 95" Real " average unit value of agricultural

exports 2 60 97 101 93 88 88

OILSEED CAKES AND MEAL 388

13ROADLEAVED LOGS 2300 m3

RUBBER 114

COFFEE 471

TEA 26

GROUNDNUTS AND OIL(OIL EQUIVALENT) 565

ORANGES 200

SUGAR 1055

TOBACCO 81

BANANAS 306

SISAL 304

COTTON 255

W OOL 120(ACTUAL WEIGHT)

PALM OIL 377

TABLE 111-3. AFRICA SOUTFI OF TFIE SAHARA: INDICES OF AVERAGE EXPORT UNIT VALUES OF MAJORAGRICULTURAL EXPORTS

FIGURE Africa South of the Sahara: Volumeand Total Value of Agricultural Exports

Indices : 1948-52 Average 100

102

is possible, if the average unit value of agricul-tural exports is deflated by the United Nationsindex of the average unit value Of manufacturedproducts in world trade, as in Table III-2above, it is still about t-wo thirds greaterthan before the -war, although some groundhas been lost in the last few years as agriculturalexport prices have declined from the exceptionallevels reached earlier.

The Diversification of Agricultural Exports.Fluctuations in the world prices of agriculturalexports have profound effects on the economiesof most of the territories in the region. Attemptsto mitigate the effects of these fluctuations,especially at the national level, have been amajor feature of the postwar period. At theinternational level, much of the sugar exportedhas moved under either the International orBritish Commonwealth Sugar Agreements andit is noticeable from Table III-3 above thataverage unit values for this commodity havefluctuated rather less than for almost all others.Also, in the earlier postwar years, many of themajor exports of the British territories werepurchased by the United Kingdom Governmentunder long-term contract, which contributed anelement of stability at that time. At then.ational level, the many schemes for the stabi-lization of producer prices will be described inthe discussion of marketing organization laterin this chapter.

PRODUCT 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1950

Indices: 1918-52 average = 100

Sugar 84 102 99 88 97 112 114 106 105 104Oranges 82 81 92 92 107 128 101 107 95 104Bananas. 157 120 122 94 89 87 90 91 91 86

Palm kernels 76 90 103 82 118 108 105 95 84 85Palm oil 69 104 95 81 124 98 72 74 81 89Groundnuts 66 88 102 79 110 126 117 114 101 106

Coffee 47 52 64 107 128 135 142 160 120 114Cacao 57 111 78 87 115 112 107 173 140 97Tobacco 103 108 Ill 93 90 104 104 101 109 91

Cotton 64 83 86 81 125 121 92 90 91 87Sisal 62 86 86 82 134 106 58 51 46 46Wool 49 76 82 116 143 90 106 93 80 85

All agricultural products 63 90 89 91 118 110 104 114 100 92

150 _

140 - r-130 -120 -110 -100 -

90 _

80

70 -t

60 -

50 -

40 _

30 _

<

20 -I I I

1934-38 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957average

Volume

Total value

Producers' revenues are now protected, inmost territories, from the worst fluctuations inworld prices, but the export revenue of a terri-tory has no such protection, except to someextent in the case of sugar. The level of exportrevenues not only determines the quantify ofgoods it is possible to import but, with much ofgovernment revenue coming from export andimport taxes, the sums that can be devotedfrom current resources to development expend-iture.

In many territories the position is particularlyserious as exports consist of little more than oneor two major agricultural products. Table III-4shows the extent to which some territories aredependent on their principal a,gricultural exports,including all those where in recent years oneproduct has accounted for more than 40 percentof the total value of exports, or two products formore than 50 percent. While the extreme casesare found in territories that are relatively smallor are sparsely populated, many of those in thelower part of the table are fairly large (both insize and population), while the sheer number ofterritories whose exports show this lack of di-versity is also impressive. Among the largerterritories, while the exports of French WestAfrica and Nigeria cover a fairly wide range,

those of some of the individual territories andregions composing them are much less diverse.

It is clear from Table 111-3 above that, ex-cept in 1951 and 1952, world prices of the mainagricultural exports have tended to follow some:-what different patterns. A territory exportinga range of products may therefore be liableto less fluctuation in its total export earningsthan one depending heavily on a single mainexport and may sometimes be able partly tooffset the effect of a fall in the price of one prod-uct by increased earnings from others. Onthe other hand, when there is a sharp change indemand as in 1951 and 1952, all commodityprices tend to move together ; thus diversifi-cation alone cannot always safeguard exportearnings, but needs to be backed up by measuresto stabilize producer prices (including, wherepossible, schemes for the stabilization of worldprices) and by setting aside reserves from gov-ernment revenues in good years for expend-iture when these revenues are lower. Further-more, the encouragement of the most suitableexport crop is generally the quickest way ofbuilding up producers' and governments' in-comes, while the alternative of developing arange of crops may sometimes prove rather costlyas a form of insurance. If the introduction of

TABLE 111-4. AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA: COMPOSITION OF THE VALUE OFDOMESTIC EXPORTS OF CERTAIN TERRITORIES, 1952-56 AVERAGE

103

1 1953-56. 3 The second " agricultural" export is timber. 3 1952-54. In 1955, with the opening of the Lobatsi abat-toir, carcass meat accounted for 49 percent of the total value of exports. 4 1952-55. 6 1951-55. 1952-53.

TERRITORY Major agricultural commodity exportedMajor

agriculturalexport

Two majoragricultural

exports

Percentage of total value of exports

Mauritius Sugar and products 98 98

Gambia Groundnuts and oil 92 95Reunion Sugar and products 89 90Zanzibar. Cloves and products , 82 96Sao Tomé and Principe Cacao 74 83Seychelles Coconut products 72 89

Liberia 1 Rubber 71 75

Ghana. Cacao 68 275

Bechuanaland 3Basutoland 4Ruanda-UrundiUgandaFrench CameroonsSpanish Guinea 5AngolaMadagascarFrench TogolandSouthern Rhodesia 6NyasalandFrench Equatorial AfricaFrench West AfricaTanganyika

CattleWool ,CoffeeCottonCacaoCacaoCoffeeCoffeeCacaoTobaccoTobaccoCottonGroundnuts and oilSisal

6660555149454544434038373233

7077588765495251614264

2725952

a new export crop is to prove economicallysuccessful, a sound assessment of world marketprospects is also necessary. In addition, itusually takes a long time before the produc-tion of a new or hitherto minor crop can be de-veloped to a level at which it appreciably affectsthe degree of dominance of the present majorcrop.

Some governments are endeavoring, in spiteof these difficulties, to 'encourage the diversifica-tion of production for export. Because of therather long-term nature of diversification andbecause of the effects on export values of year-to-year changes in world prices, progress to-wards diversification is not easy to determine.Comparing the prewar period with 1952-56,however, Gambia's extreme dependence ongroundnuts appears to have fallen from 98 to92 percent of total exports, in French WestAfrica the proportion of groundnuts and oil inthe total value of exports fell from 46 to 32percent, in Nyasaland that of tobacco from 45to 33 percent, and in Uganda that of cottonfrom 79 to 51 percent. In the latter territory,however, the place occupied by the two mainexports together (cotton and coffee) increasedduring this period.

In some tenitories, on the other hand, exportsappear to have become less diverse since, thewar. Sometimes this has probably been advan-tageous, the relatively small prewar exportshaving been developed to their present higherlevel largely through a rapid expansion of themain crop. This appears to be the case inFrench Equatorial Africa, for instance, wherecotton increased from 16 to 37 percent of thetotal value of exports, and in Madagascar,where coffee increased from 27 to 44 percent.

Agricultural Imports and the Net Trade Po-sition. Africa South of the Sahara is a substan-tial net exporter of agricultural products, itsgross imports probably amounting to no morethan 01le fifth (by value) of its gross exports ofthese commodities. The volume of importsappears to have grown even faster than exports,having increased by more than 50 percent since1943-52 (Table III-5).

There are large net imports only of wheat andflour, rice and wine, though the imports of con-densed and evaporated milk are also beginningto assume important proportions. Smaller netimports include potatoes, some vegetable oils,prepared and canned meat a,nd cheese. Withthe notable exception of rice, gross and net

104

TABLE III-5. AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA:TRENDS IN GROSS IMPORTS OF AGRICULTTJRAL

PRODUCTS

ITEM

Aver-age

1934-3g

1953 1954 1955 1956

. _Indices: 1948-52 average = 100 ..

imports of most of these commodities havegrown rapidly (Table III-6).

With the worldwide shortage of rice after thewar, gross imports fell to less than a third oftheir average prewar level, but in 1955 and 1956they recovered sharply to approximately thesame as before the war, reflecting the generalimprovement in supplies. The main importersof rice are French West Africa, 'Mauritius, theUnion of South Africa, Reunion, and Zanzibar.

Gross imports of wheat and flour are nowmore than five times as high as before the -warthis, and also the substantial increases in im-ports of potatoes, prepared and canned meat,and dairy products, are to some extent an indi-cation of changes in African diets that are occur-ring with urbanization and rising incomes. Onlyabout one third of the imports of wheat andwheat flour go to the Union of South Africa.,with its large European population. In thiscountry imports of wheat and flour were un-necessary in 1957, as a result of two successiverecord harvests, but imports into almost allother territoxies are increasing steadily. Theincreases in potatoes, canned meat, and dairyproducts are also spread over most of the re-gion, though imports of prepared meat go mostlyto Ghana.

Already before the war Africa South of theSahara liad the largest net import of wine ofany underdeveloped region. These imports,i,vhich go largely to the French and Portugueseterritories, have increased with great rapidityand in 1956 the net import was seven times theprewar average.

Of the products for which the region is on anet export basis, there. is regularly a substantialgross import only of sugar. This rose fromabout 60,000 tons per year before the war to140,000 tons in 1948-52 and as much as 320,000tons in 1956. This very rapid increase also

Total volume. 65 128 137 149 153

Total value 21 134 133 144 144

Average unit value . 33 104 97 96 94

TABLE 111-6, AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA: GROSS AND NET IMPORTS OF CERTAIN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

1 - sign denotes net export. 2 Wheat equivalent.

reflects urbanization and rising incomes and isspread over most of the region except for thefew area§ where there is substantial local pro-duction. There has also been a fairly largegross iniport of maize hi the hnmediate postwaryears and from 1951 to 1953; in 1947 and againin 1953 the region was actually a net importer.This position has mainly been determined byharvests in the Union of South Africa and,following very large crops in that country from1952/53 onwards, net exports from the regionhave recovered to prewar proportions. Inmany territories in East and Central Africa themaize supply position fluctuates rather sharplyfrom year to year. Gross imports of tea, chieflyinto the Union of South Africa, have grownsteadily, but the region has been a net exportersince the war.

Main Commoditiesinformation on a commodity basis is already

published regularly by FAO for most of themore important agricultural products of AfricaSouth of the Sahara. The main commoditieswill therefore not be examined in detail here,though a brief summary is required in order tofill in the background of the overall trends inproduction and trade discussed above.

Local Food Crops. It is here that the limi-tations of the statistical data are greatest andlittle can be said about trends except that theavailable information indicates a fairly steady

105

increase in the production of all the main cropsthat are produced primarily for local consump-tion. As was pointed out above, the produc-tion of crops which are largely for subsistencemay generally be expected, 'under conditionsprevailing in the region, to increase at least asfast as population.

The statistics are probably adequate for abroad comparison of the relative orders of mag-nitude of the principal staple food crops.Table 111-7 compares estimates of the totalarea and production of these crops. As willbe shown in the discussion of food consumptionand nutrition later in this chapter, the starchystaple crops included in the table account fora very large part of the total calorie intake inthe region.

Millets and sorghums appear to occupy byfar the largest part of the area, with maize along way behind, while the chief cereals aregrown on an area more than three times asgreat as that of the starchy roots and plantains.In terms of production, however, cassavaaccounts for more than one third of the totaltonnage and the production of the high-yield-hie starchy roots and plantains is about threetimes that of the grain crops, a complete re-versal of the relative position of the two groupsin terms of acreage. A comparison of the ton-

"While the yields of the starchy roots are gene-rally higher than those of the cereals, it should beremembered that in certain areas two cereal cropscan be obtained in the year.

PRODUCT 1934-38

Aver-age

1945-52

Aver-age

1953 1954 1955 19561934-

35Aver-

age

1948-52

Aver-age

1953 1954 1955, .j956

Thousand ?zeta* i022,8

Wheat and wheat flour 2. .

Maize129

16491113

637201

63037

70842

67324

108608

462183

66267

620694

702883

6591150

Rice (milled) 313 166 206 220 329 310 294 143 155 192 265 262Sugar (tel gaol) 58 141 209 289 295 323 596 537 603 685 722 729Wine. 47 121 223 272 287 290 40 108 211 259 274 278

Potatoes 14 29 40 43 51 51 2 9 26 24 30 23Prepared rneat 3 5 8 7 7 7 1 3 3 4 4Canned meat 6 10 6 9 10 10 2 3 1 6 6

Condensed and evaporatedmilk 18 27 30 36 37 8 18 27 30 36 37

Cheese 3 4 4 5 5 3 4 2 4 5Tea 12 15 16 14 18 11 2 5 9 7

Gross imports Not imports 1

TABLE 111-7. AFRICA SOUTH OF TFIE SAHARA: ESTIMATED RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF THEMAIN STAPLE FOOD CROPS, 1948-52 AVERAGE

NOTE: In the FAO Yearbook of Food and Agricultural Statistics, Part 1, Production, regional totals are not yet estimated for milletsand sorghums, cassava or sweet potatoes and yams, while no data at all aro shown for cocoyams or plantains. The presentestimates for these crops should therefore be regarded as highly tentative and used only for the cmnparison of relative ordersof magnitude. The 1948-52 period was chosen as it includes the 1950 World Census of Agriculture.

nage of root crops and cereals is, of course,rather unrealistic, as the gross calorie yield perton of the latter is some three to five times thatof the former. On the basis of the approxi-mate gross production of calories, the starchyroots and plantains are reduced to about equalimportance with the grains ; cassava appearsto be the main provider of calories in the region,followed by the millets and sorghums groupand then maize.

While the above estimates are subject to awide margin of error,1° they are probably nearerthe truth than any estimates of year-to-yeartrends for the region as a whole or for mostindividual territories. For maize, the statis-ties or the Union of South Africa, by far thelargest producer in the region, are more reliablethan for most other areas, though here also theacreage figures generally exclude non- Europeanplantings. Maize production in the Union ofSouth Africa rose sharply in 1952/53 to a recordlevel of 3.3 million tons and again in 1953/54to 3.6 million tons, while subsequent harvestshave also been large, with a new record of 3.7million tons in 1956 ; prewar production aver-aged about 2 mibion tons. Increases appearto have been rapid in other producing territoriesalso, though there have been considerablefluctuations from year to year.

'Area figures are particularly doubtful becauseof the prevalence of mixed cropping.

106

Statistics of rice production are better thanfor most of the other local food crops. Table111-8 indicates that the region's rice productionis 11.0W ahnost double the prewar level. Manygoverments have encouraged the productionof rice, because of the difficulty of obtainingimports in the earlier postwar years and its mercasing popularity in African diets. Madagascar,the largest producer in the region, has had anannual export surplus of up to about 40,000tons of milled rice in the last few years.

Among the other main staple food crops, Ni-geria and French West Africa appear to be thelargest producers of millets and sorghums, withan average production of 2.7 and 2.3 milliontons, respectively, in 1948-52. The largest pro-ducers of cassava are Nigeria with more than10 million tons and the Belgian Congo withabout 6 million tons ; this crop has been spe-cially encouraged in some territories becauseof its value as a famine reserve. Nigeria isalso the largest producer of sweet potatoes andyams (chiefly the latter), of which productionis estimated to be about 10 million tons. Ac-cording to official statistics, the average 1948-52production of plantains in the main producingterritories was as follows : Uganda, 2.7 mil-lion tons ; Belgian Congo, 1.6 million tonsTanganyika, 1.4 million tons ; and 1.2 milliontons in both Ghana and Ruanda-Urundi.

Mention should also be made of the pulses

Caos' Aren Grossproduction

Gross caloricproduction A.rea Gross

productionGross calorie

production

Millionhectares

Millionmetric tons

Millionmillions Percentage of total

Maize 8.8 6.5 23.1 26 9 21Millets and sorghums . . . . 15.0 8.8 26.9 44 12 24Rice (paddy) 2.6 2.5 6.5 S 3 6

TOTAL 26.4 17.8 56.5 78 24 51

Cassava 3.3 27.4 29.9 10 37 27Sweet potatoes and yams . 2.4 16.9 15.5 7 23 14Cocoyams 0.6 2.0 1.8 2 3 1

Plantains. 1.2 10.5 7.9 3 14 7

TOTAL 7.5 56.8 55.1 22 76 49

TOTAL, main staple crops 33.9 74.6 111.6 100 100 100

TABLE 111-8. AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA: PRODUCTION OF RICE (PADDY)

that are an important source of protein in someareas, especially in the highland parts of theBelgian Congo, Ruanda-Urundi, and Uganda.Recorded production has generally increasedin recent years, but there is probably consider-able scope for further increases in many ter-ritories where production is at present insig-nificant. No information is available on trends inthe production of other nutritionally importantfood cropS, such as fruits and green vegetables.

European farmers in the Union of SouthAfrica and Kenya are the only substantial pro-ducers of wheat in the region, though the smallproduction in a few other territories is increasing.Production in the Union of South Africa reacheda record level of more than 800,000 tons in1956/57, while in Kenya the average harvestis somewhat over 100,000 tons.

Export Crops. For those crops which aremainly or partly exported, trends can be exam-ined in more detail, though only approximateestimates are available of the quantities consum-ed locally, and thus of total production, andthe present analysis will be based mainly onexport figures. Table III-9 shows recent trendsin the exports of the principal crops in the majorproducing territories and in the region as awhole.

Sugar is almost the sole export of Mauritiusand Reunion and in both territories productionand exports are now more than double theprewar level. The largest producer in the re-gion, however, is the Union of South Africa,where production reached the record level of850,000 tons in 1955/56 ; domestic consumptionincreased so rapidly that exports fell far below

1 Average of four years. - 2 1950. - 3 Average of two years.

107

their prewar level, but from 1954 they haveagain been at high levels. Mozambique andAngola also have small export surpluses, butelsewhere the relatively small output is mainlyconsumed locally.

Banana exports, mainly from West Africa,increased very sharply in 1953, but in the lastfew years have remained fairly stable, apartfrom a big rise in 1957. The Union of SouthAfrica accounts for almost all of the region'sexports of citrus fruits ; production and ex-ports have grown remarkably rapidly. Thiscountry is also an important exporter of dec-iduous and dried fruits and has a small exportof wine.

Africa South of the Sahara supplies a largepart of world exports of some vegetable oilsand oilseeds, its share having become moreimportant with the postwar reduction in ex-ports from the Far East. The production andexports of groundnuts have increased rapidlyin Nigeria, but in French West Africa, the othermajor producer, the prewar level of productionwas regained only in 1955. Production hasalso grown rapidly in the Belgian Congo, South-ern Rhodesia, Uganda and, especially, FrenchEquatorial Africa and the Union of South Africa.Oil palms are a wild crop of the forest zone ofWest and Central Africa and it is only in theBelgian Congo that a large part of the outputof oil palm products comes from plantations.Exports of palm oil rose sharply in the BelgianCongo aftor the war, and to a smaller extent,in Nigeria, but in the last few years the region'stotal export has changed little. Exports ofpalm kernels and palm-kernel oil from theseand other West African territories have shown

COUNTRY 1934-38Average

1948-52Average 1953/54 1954/55 1955/56 1956/57 1957/58

(Prelim.)

Million metric tons

Madagascar. 0.61 0.83 1.03 1.00 1.03 0.96 1.25French West Africa 0.40 0.52 0.51 0.56 0.67 0.68 0.:67Sierra Leone 0.19 10.26 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22Nigeria 20.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25Belgian Congo 0 .06 0.15 0.18 0.18 0.20 0.19 0.19Liberia. 30.15 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12Other 0.32 0.32 0.36 0.35 0.37 0.36

TOTAL 1.59 2.48 2.63 2.69 2.84 2.79 3.06

TABLE 111-9. AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA: VOLUME OF EXPORTS OF PRINCIPAL CROPSIN THE MAIN PRODUCING TERRITORIES AND IN THE REGION AS A WHOLE

108

ITENI 1934-38Average

1948-52Average 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957(Pi.)

Thousand metric tons

Sug4r (tel quel)Mauritius 261 431 477 502 475 539 585Union of South Africa 177 37 87 211 245 183 146Reunion 75 102 150 169 164 185 197Mozambique 70 60 69 52 86 98 ...Angola. 27 38 24 34 31 32 41Other 44 10 5 6 16 18

Total 654 678 812 974 1 017 1 055 1 120

BananasFrench West Africa 47 67 93 104 125 116 (108)Guinea. ... (48) (72) (83) (98) (91) (73)Ivory Coast ... (18) (21) (21) (27) (25) (35)Nigeria. 45 65 92 83 68 70 81French Cameroons 15 45 72 74 76 60 85Belgian Congo 1 12 25 17 30 39 36Other 12 13 20 23 15 21 21

Total 120 202 302 301 314 306 331

OrangesUnion of South Africa 84 114 147 188 185 198 222Other 9 3 4 3 2 2 2

Total 93 117 151 191 187 200 224

Groundnuts and Oil (oil equivalent)French West Africa 182 147 192 207 160 225. 251Senegal, Sudan, Mauritania . ... , .. (169) (184) (130) (178) (217)Nigeria 101 121 162 218 208 231 169Gambia 17 21 16 16 20 16 ...Union of South Africa 3 19 30 36 49 ...Other

Total32 33 38 35 37 44 ...

332 325 427 5(.6 461 565 536

Palm OilNigeria. . . 137 162 204 212 185 188 169Belgian Congo 60 127 132 137 149 151 155

-WestFrench Africa 21 11 16 14 18 18 12Dahomey. ... (10) (15) (13) (16) (16) (10)Other 25 28 21 25 19 20 21Total 243 328 373 388 370 377 357

Palm Kernels and Oil (oil equiv.)Nigeria. 150 168 184 212 198 206 186French West Africa 34 34 39 37 38 39 35Dahomey. . ... (18) (21) (22) (23) (22) (20)Guinea. ... (11) (12) (U) (10) (10) (9)Ivory CoastSierra Leone

...34

(4)33

(5)32

(3)31

(5)26

(6)26

(5)24Belgian Congo 35 53 54 58 63 60 69Other 49 47 44 38 42 45 36

Total 302 335 353 376 367 375 350

Oilseed Cakes and MealFrench West Africa ... 82 127 131 125 141 141Belgian Congo 1 29 40 55 61 82 89UgandaNigeria.

2 182

3510

6242

5040

6144 9-4Other ... 29 41 53 55 60

Total 17 160 253 343 331 388 395

TA BLE III-9. AFRICA SOUTFI OF THE SAHARA: VOLUME OF EXPORTS OF PRINCIPAL CROPSIN THE MAIN PRODUCING TERRITORIES AND IN THE REGION AS A WHOLE (concluded)

109

ITEM 1934-38Average

1943-52Average 1953 1951 1955 1955 1957

(Prelim.)

Thousand metric tonsCoffee

French West Africa s 62 56 95 95 131 112Ivory Coast .. (59) (50) (SS) (85) (119) (101)Madagascar. 21 32 36 42 48 52 48Angola 15 50 72 44 58 84 76Belgian Congo 17 32 34 34 43 51 67UgandaKenya k 27

1

3612

3615

3511

7620

63

Tanganyika. 15 15 1627

' 'Other 8 21 21

2031

1931

22

Total40

114 260 286 312 389 471 469Tea

Nyasaland 3 7 6 8 8 9 9Mozambique 2 4 5 5 6 6Kenya3

3 3 5 6 7 (

Uganda 1 1 2 2 2 10Other 1 1 1 1 2 2 2

Total 7 14 15 21 23 26 27Cacao

Ghana 266 241 241 218 209 238 272Nigeria. 91 108 106 100 90 119 137French West Africa (Ivory Coast) 47 53 72 53 75 76 66French Cameroons 25 48 61 50 56 46 51Spanish Guinea 12 16 17 18 17 20 ..French Togoland 9 4 s 12 14 4 3Sao Tomé and Principe . . .

Other10

285

117

7s

- 69

911

-

Total 462 483 523 466 476 523 568

TobaccoFederation of Rhodesia and

Nyasaland 16 49 53 60 56 75 63Other 4 4 4 8 8 7 7

Total 20 53 57 68 64 81 70

Cotton (lint)Uganda 60 59 60 71 56 68 61Belgian Congo 30 46 46 41 40 51 38Mozambique 5 27 38 38 33 23 .. .French Equatorial Africa . . . 7 27 25 33 33 38 31

Chad . ... (13) (22) (21) (24) (21)Ubangi-Shari ... ... (12) (12) (12) (14) (13)

Nigeria. 0 13 18 26 34 28 26Tanganyika, . 10 10 15 12 21 28 28Other 10 11 19 16 16 19

Total 131 193 221 237 233 255 231

SisalTanganyika . 90 136 174 170 177 189 184Kenya 32 38 36 34 35 37 41Angola. 6 21 31 31 41 38 40Mozambique 22 18 23 25 27 28 31Madagascar. 3 6 4 12 12 10 11Other 5 2 1 2 . .

Total 158 219 268 274 293 304 307

Rubber (natural)Liberia. 2 31 35 38 39 40 40Nigeria 2 14 22 21 30 38 41Belgian Congo 1 10 18 23 26 33 34Other 4 3 3 3 4 3 3

Total 9 58 78 85 100 114 118

only a relatively small increase over the prewarlevel. These trends contrast sharply with theconsiderable attention that has been paid tothe improvement of oil palms in many terri-tories. A number of other oilseeds, includingsesame, coconut products, castor beans, sun-flower seed and tung are important in certainareas. A significant postwar tendency hasbeen the increased local processing of oilseeds,especially of groundnuts in French West Africa.As a result, in addition to a substantial growthin oil exports, the region's exports of oilseedcakes and meal, negligible before the war, arenow around 400,000 tons annually.

Coffee has shown the most striking postwarexpansion of all the region's major eXports.The increase has been spread over a largenumber of territories, but has been especiallyrapid in the Ivory Coast, Madagascar, Angola,the Belgian Congo, Uganda and Kenya. Cacao,on the other hand, has expanded less than anyother major export. Production increased ver'ylittle above the prewar level until 1956, in partbecause of disease (chiefly Swollen Shoot Dis-ease in Ghana) and the low rate of plantingin the period of low world prices in the nineteenthirties. In Ghana (the world's largest producer)production has, in fact,.been less than before thewar in most postwar seasons and only in theIvory Coast and the French Cameroons hasthere been any substantial increase. The smallproduction of tea in East and Central Africahas risen sharply. Tobacco is produced insmall quantities for local consumption in manyterritories ; export production is mainly con-fined to European estates in the Federation ofRhodesia and Nyasaland, where there has beena very rapid expansion, stimulated by long-termcontracts with manufacturers in the -UnitedKingdom, Australia, and the Union of SouthAfrica.

Cotton is an important cash crop for the indi-genous population of several territories. Pro-duction and exports have increased rapidlyexcept in Uganda, the major exporter in theregion. Sisal production and exports are n6wdouble the prewar level, though most of theincrease occurred in the earlier part of thepostwar period ; further potential increases havebeen limited by low prices in recent years.Tanganyika, where there are large Europeanestates, is the world's major producer. Therehas been a remarkable expansion in the produc-tion of plantation rubber in Liberia, wherealthough the bulk of output is still from the

110

estates of the Firestone Company the share ofsmaller producers is also increasing, and alsoin the Belgian Congo and Nigeria.

,Livestocic Products. Cattle are relatively nu-merous in Africa South of the Sahara, espe-cially in relation to the human population insome areas (Table III-10). As will be seen inthe section on technical probleins and progresslater in this chapter, cattle are barred from largeareas by trypanosomiasis and problems of watersupply, so that they are fairly densely concen-trated in the more favorable places. Sheep,which can thrive in drier areas, appear to beslightly more numerous than cattle in the re-gion as a whole, their numbers being estimatedat about 75 million in 1956, though as many as37 million were concentrated in the Union ofSouth Africa, where they are mainly owned byEuropean farmers. Goat numbers were esti-mated at about 50 inillion in the same yearand pigs about 4 million. Estimates of poultrynumbers are available for very few territoriesthe largest numbers appear to be in FrenchWest Africa, the Union of South Africa andMadagascar, with some 13 to 16 million chickenseach.

In spite of these large numbers of livestock,the output of livestock products is very limitedand accounts or only about one quarter of the

TAI3LE III-10. AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARACATTLE NUNIBERS COMPARED WITH POPTJLATION

COUNTICY

Cattle Numbers

1948-52Average 1956 1956

. Millions ... Perperson

Union of South Africa, . 11.9 11.6 0.8French West Africa, . . 8.9 9.5 0.5Tanganyika 6.3 7.5 0.9

Kenya 5.5 6.8 1.1Nigeria 6.0 6.1 0.2Madagascar 5.7 6.1 1.2

French Equatorial Africa . 3.3 3.4 0.7Uganda 2.6 3.2 0.6Southern Rhodesia . 2.9 3.1 1.2

South West Africa . 1.5 1.7 3.4French Cameroons . 1.2 1.3 0.4Angola 1.3 1.2 0.3

Bechuanaland 1.0 1.2 4.0Northern Rhodesia . 0.9 1.0 0.4Ruanda-Urundi 1.0 0.9 0.2

TOTAL. 63.3 68.7 0.5

price-weighted aggregates of the FAO produc-tion index, a lower proportion than in any re-gion except, the Far East. The sh.are of live-stock products -would be even lower with theexclusion of the 'Union of South Africa, -wherethey generally 'account for about half of thegross value of agricultural output,. Europeanfarmers have also developed a livestock in.dus-try in Kenya, the Federation of Rhodesia andNyasaland and some other limited areas, butelse,where th.è output of livestock products isvery small, for reasons discussed :later in thischapter.

Data on the output of livestock products arehighly inadequate, most -village slaughteringsgoing unrecorded, though such data as are avail-able suggest a fairly steady increase in the re-gion's small production of meat, milk, and eggs.There has been a substantial postwar expansionin recorded intra-regional trade in cattle, im-ports into Ghana, Northern Rhodesia, and theUnion of South Africa increasing particularlysharply. Hides and skins are also an impor-tant export of a number of territories. TheUnion of South Africa, :where statistics are morecomplete, is probably responsible for a substan-tial proportion of the region's output of livestockproducts, for it contains about 50 percent ofthe total sheep population and about one sixth

COUNTRY 1938 1918-52Average

111

of the cattle. Although meat production inthis country is much greater than before thewar (except for mutton and lamb, because ofa sharp fall in sheep numbers), it has changedlittle in the last few years and price policieshave recently been altered iii an attempt tostimulate beef production. The Union of SouthAfrica is t,he world's fourth largest exporter ofwool. Mention should also be made of thevaluable karakul and mohair industries of the'Union Of South Afri.ca and South West Africa.

Fishery Products. Total reported fish pro-duction in 1956 was nearly four times as muchas in 1938 and almost twice the 194:8-52 average(Table III:11). A very large part of this rapidincrease has occurred in Angola, the Union ofSouth Africa and South West Africa, whichnow produce about two thirds of the total catchof the region.

The sudden expansion in these three areas isexplained by firm world demand for certainproducts, especially fish meal, and the accessi-bility of dense stocks, mainly pilchard and jackmackerel off the southwest coast. 'Until 1953production :increased rapidly in all three areas;the expansion has continued in Angola, wherethere was ami increase of over 30 percent in1956 alone, but in the other two areas produc-

TABLE . AFRICA, SOUTH OF TE SAHARA_ : 135TEHATE V) TOTAL CATCH OF Fisn

1953 1951 1955 1956

Dap sand metric ions

220358275

(853)

1 330

1957

1 Live weight, i. e., whole fresh weight. 2 Including Walvis Bay area. -- 3 Estimated catch of marine fisheries only.

261 200 421. 396354 362 287263 240 268

(878) (892) (976)

100 100 10051 54 61 7266 81

50 52 5537 42 94 54

342 '42 4224 25 3420 20 20 2018 13 13

84 89

1 370 1 410 1 530

AngolaUnion. of South. AfricaSouth West Africa 2

'1'01(11

26624

14227285

(92 ) (409 )

French :Equatorial Africa .

French West Africa!Belgian Congo :34

r.ranganyika. 16 26French Carne.roons 18Nigeria.

Uganda 16Ghana 20Kenya

ther

To T AL 380 870

1005067

503042

232019

76

tion has 110W leveled off and even declinedsomewhat. While this was to some extent dueto the imposition of catch quotas and limita-tions oil craft and processing facilities in theinterest of conservation, it now appears thatroduers in the 'Union of South Africa arefinding it difficult to reach the prescribed an-nual quota. Fish inca!, mainly for export, re-presents by far the largest usage and, \\lineworld markets remain firm, present trends maybe expected to continue, with the limits onproductive capacity rather than 01.1 demand,more especially since relatively low catchingcosts have placed these industries in a stronglYcompetitive position. Although there is someexport to other parts of Africa, including aquite substantial export of dried fish from Angolato the Belgian Congo, the bulk of the exporttrade (fish meal, canned and other preservedproducts) is directed to markets outside theregion.

In the rest of the region the situation is ma-terially different. These territiiries collectivelyabsarb virtually all their o w n 11811 prOdUCt1011(with considerable movement of supplies withinthe group) and also .import substantial quanti-ties from outside. These fisheries are predomi-nantly concerned with the supply of fresh fishfor local consumption and of simple forms ofcured fish for distribution beyond the immediatevicinity of fishing centers. Inland lakes amiriver systems provide an important source offish supplies and a great (leal of unrecordedsubsistence fishing is practiced, so that trendsare difficult to determine. -Where records areavailable, however, they indicate increasingprod

There are many problems to overcome in thepro vision of marketing and other facilities, equip-ment, technical training and research, but thegeneral pressure of demand, possibly increasedin some cases by the lack of alternative sourcesof animal protein, and the persistence of cur-rent efforts to improVe fishing, handling andprocessing, are expected to support the presenttrend towards heavier production. In this con-nection, the development of time dried fish tradeis of special importance. The vigor and flexi-bility of this trade is reflected in the very con-siderable movement of this sii.nply processedproduct throughout this group of countries,.with increasing imports especially from Angolaand Europe. Both the Belgian Congo and Ni-geria are 110W importing OVer 20,000 tons ofdried products annually, representing some

112

three times that .weight of fresh fish. There isalso a growing import of canned fish. .into thisgroup, notably Ghana (11,500 tons in 1955)and the Belgian Congo (6,000 tons in 1955).

Forest Products. In spite of the region's largeforested area, recorded .remo vals of round:woodare only about 85 million cubic meters annually(Table HI-12). Almost all is broadleaved wood,though the small coniferous removals from arti-ficial forests in Kenya and the -Union of SouthAfrica have increased since tlie war. Aboutnine tenths of the roundwood is used as fuel,though this proportion appears to be slowlyfalling. Recorded fuelwood re:movals have re-mained fairly steady at 70 to 75 million cubicmeters throughout the last decade, but muchfuelwood product ion also eseapes record.

There has been a rapid expansion in the snialloutput of industrial wood and of processedforest products. The expansion has not beenuniform and in 1955 French Equatorial Africa,Ghana and the Union of South. Africa account-ed for Ivell over half of industrial wood. re-movals. 'lime major increase iii sawnwood pro-duction has taken place in the Belgian Congo,Ghana and the Union of South Africa. The-Union of South Africa accounts for two thirdsof the region's plywood production and for al-most all of pulp, paper, fibreboard and particleboard.

The exploitation of time region's mixed trop-ical hardwood forests presents many problems.The first phases of commercial exploitation werehighly selective and in many of the niore ac-cessible arcas the classic groups of hardwoodspecies, mahogany, okolumé and limba, havebeen overexploited and output has had to berestricted. Since time war, however, many newspecies have won acce,ptance, especially intWesterniF,uropean. markets, but potentialities arestill only beginning to be realized.. It shouldbe mentioned that the forests alsii yield a largevariety of minor prod-acts apart from -WOOd.Wattle bark for tanning, produced on planta-tions, is a valuable export of Kenya and theUnion of South Africa.

In spite of the expansion in production sincethe war and in spite also of a great increase inexports of broadleaved logs, the region remain-ed up to 1953 a net importer of forest productsin terms of round'wood equivalent. Since ex-ports of forest products are mainly of logs,while imports consist largely of more valuable,processed goods, trade is .very largely extra-

1 Solid volume, without bark.

regional and in terms of value imports out-weigh exports, which were around 120 milliondollars in 1955, as against an import of about150 million dollars. The principal exPortersare, in order, French Equatorial Africa,Ghana, Nigeria, 'Union of South Africa and theBelgian Congo and the principal importers theUnion of South Africa (86 million dollars), theFederation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland (17

million dollars) and the Belgian Congo (8million dollars.

Exports of broadleaved logs, the main item,rose from 0.53 million cubic :meters in 1946 to2.35 million in 1955. All the leafting exporters(French Equatorial Africa, Ghana, Nigeria,French West Africa and the :Belgian Congo)raised their shipments considerablY in this pe-riod.. Though there. has 'been an even morespectacular expansion of broadleaved log ex-ports from Asian countries, in 1955 Africa Southof the Sahara still accounted for 35 percent oftotal world exports in this category. Exportsof processed broadleaved wood and sleepers haverisen less rapidly, except in Ghana, where sawn

TABLE 111-12. AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA : FORESTRY PRODUCTION

1113

hardwood exports have increased thirty-fold inthe last ten years and HOW aCCOlUlt for more thanhalf the region's total. Only ZI'reneli EquatorialAfrica, the Belgian Congo and Nigeria as yetexport plywood or veneers on a significant scale,while there is a sizeable shipment of fibreboardfrom the 'Union of South. Africa (Table III-13).

Several factors have contributed to the in-creased European market for West African hard-woods since the -war. With the chief supplierof softwoods, the U.S.S.R., unable to resumeshipments on the prewar scale, there was atendency to substitute hardwood whereVer prac-ticable and a few of these outlets were retained.when later softwood supplies eased, while pay-ment difficulties restricted European purchasesof North American hardwoods. The furnituretrade, the biggest single consumer of hardwood,has also been buoyant in the postwar period.

Forest products industries are still relativelyunderdeveloped over :most of the region. Pulpand papel' production is .virtually confined tothe Union of South Africa and even that countryimports all its newsprint and much of its other

PRODTICT 1916 1948-52Average 1953 1954 1955 1956

Removals of .1?oundwoodMillion cubic meters I

Broadleaved woodConiferous wood

78.60.9

77.41.1

79.81.4

83.11.4

83.31.5

81.51.5

Total

of which

79.5 78.5 81.2 84.5 84.8 83.0

Logs 2.6 4.7 6.3 6.6 7.0 7.3Pulpwood and pitprops. 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.8Other. 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.6

TOTAL industrial Wood . . 4.2 7.0 8.8 9.7 10.4 10.7Fuelwood 75.3 71.5 72.4 74.8 74.4 72.3

Titousead cubic meters

Output of Forest Products

Sawn wood 820 1,160 1,580 1,650 1,650 1,720P13,11700d 40 70 170 190 200 210

Thousa.Mt netric /OW

Pulp 8 18 39 50 64 85Paper and paperboard . 14 19 35 74 85 95Fibreboard 11 40 55 70 75

TABLE . -13. AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA : TRADE IN :FOREST PRODUCTS

1 Including sleepers.

paper. All countries consume paper, however,and few lack resources of fiber suitable for papesmaking. Technically, the problem of exploit-ing the region's mixed tropical hardwoods issoluble, but local markets are still too small tosustain orthodox mills of economic size. Thesemarkets will expand, however, while some met-ropolitan countries, faced with rising require-ments, are beginning to investigate the possi-bility of supplementing their pulp supplies bydeveloping production in African territories.As regards other forest product industries,further progress depends mainly on imprOvedextraction and processing techniques and onwinning markets for less-known species.

Producer Prices and IncomesVarious systems of control of producer prices

lia,ve become very widespread in Africa Southof the Sahara since the Ivar. The main types ofscheme in force are described lates in this chap-ter, in connection with the marketing organNa-Mons that administer most of them, and thepresent section is confined to a brief review Oftrends in the prices received by producers.

Table 111-14 assembles series of producerprices for some of time major export crops andalso for maize, which among local food cropsis the most frequently controlled. :Publishedseries are mainly of controlled prices and eventhe average prices shown in the table are allbased on SOMO fOr 111 of guarantee or support,except in the case of coffee in Kenya and ofcoffee and cacao in the Ivory Coast. In the lat-ter territory, however, stabilization schemes forthese crops were begun in 1955.

114

Maize prices were generally raised steadilyin the earlier postwar years, -when there N'asstill a shortage of grains on world markets, asan incentive to the expansion of production.These high guaranteed prices, combined withgood -weather, led in some cases to exportsurpluses which were difficult to dispose ofprofitably mice the 'world supply situation hadeased, so that after reaching a peak in theyears 1951-53 priees vere reduced quite sharp-ly :in some territories.

The producer prices for the main export cropsshould he compared with the movements intheir average export unit values shown in Ta-ble 111-3 above. While fluctuations in control-led producer prices have been much smallerthan those that have occurred on world markets,these prices have sometimes been changed quitesharply from one year to the :next. At one timerather abrupt upward revisions of producerprices were fairly frequent, to adjust to the risein world prices. :Producer prices for groundnuts,for example, were raised by as much as 70 per-cent in Nigeria in 1951. When world prices arefalling, as in the last few years, some producerprices have had to be substantially reduced,but the use of stabilization funds has causedthese reductions to be smaller than the falls inworld prices. The effect on producer priceshas also tended to be delayed Or spread overmore than one year.

It would be useful tO be able to mea,sure thelevel of these producer prices in " real " termsin comparison with the prewar period, in orderto obtain some idea of the evolution of the pur-chasing power of agricultural products. Com-parable prewar prices are, however, available

Prim Unit 1946 1948-52Average 1953 1951 1955 1956

Exports

Broadleaved logs 1 000 m3 530 1 170 1 630 1 860 2 350 2 300:Broadleaved sawnwood 1 1 000 m3 150 230 455 400 450 520

Veneers and plywood . . 1 000 m3 5 30 60 65 80 95Fibreboard

haports

1 000 metric tons 10 15 20 25

Coniferous sawnwood. . . . 1 000 standards 140 150 130 160 170 160Paper and paperboard. . 1 000 metric tons 126 101 82 217 235 230Fibreboard 1 000 metric tons 6 9 1:1 17 20

TABLE III-14. AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA : PRODUCER PRICES FOR SOME MAJOR. CROPS

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, prices cover the calendar year or the crop season beginning in the year stated.1 Guaranteed price. - 2 Average price. -- Buganda Province. - 4 Fixed mice. - 5 Minimurn price. -- 6 Shelled, at rail-

head, Kano area. - 7Unshelled. - 8 Grades I and II. - 9 Grade I, naked, ex-scale, port of shipment. -- 10 Payable at curingworks for African-grown robusta, unhulled (Kiboko) in first half of year. -- 11 Payable for good raw cotton, Meng° zone. - 12 De-cember. - 12 Naked, ex-scale, Abidjan.

in only a few cases. :Deflation to " real " termsis also difficult ; indices of the general cost ofliving, for example, rarely extend back as faras the prewar period, while, if they do cover solong a period, illey are generally not very. ac-curate. Most indices also refer only to the ur-ban cost of living.

Beaxing in mind these diffieulties, some ten-tative comparisons can be made for Kenya,Uganda, a,nd the Union of South Africa. InKenya the guaranteed price for maize in 1956was nearly seven times the average price in1938, as against an approximate trebling of thecost of living index for Nairobi. In Uganda,1956 producer price,s ranged from some 3 timesthe 1938 level in the case of maize to about 13times for coffee, while the cost of living indexfor Kampala was about 2.5 times as great asbefore the war. The 1956 maize price in theUnion of South Africa was about 3.5 times theprewar level, the cost of living having approxi-mately doubled in the same period.

Th.tis it appears that, in spite of recent de-clines in producer prices, the purchasing power

115

of the main agricultural products remains con-siderably greater th.an before the war. It mustbe remembered, ho \\TWA!, that the immediateprewar years vere a period of exceptionally de-pressed agricultural prices.

Some useful estimates are available of the" terms of trade " of prodlicers of cacao inGhana and of groundnuts, palm oil, palm ker-nels, and cacao in Nigeria, based on the pro-ducer prices of these, erops and an ind.ex ofthe -wholesale prices of imported goods.11 Cal-culated oil this basis the producer's terms oftrade appear to have fluctuated very sharplyin the postwar period. Generally speaking, theeffect of th.e sharp upward movement of mostproducer prices around 195] WaS offset by asimilarr.ise in the, prices of .imports. As thelatter prices then declined, while producerprices changed little, the terms of trade steadilyimproved. From about 1056, however, importpu-ices have again begun to rise, coinciding with

17 Seo Ullited Africa Company Limited, Matisticalum' Economic Review, No. 8, September i951,pp. 23-26, a,nd subsequent issta,,,s.

COMMODITY AND COUNTRY CUITetley aild. IIR11 1948 1919 1930 1931 1932 1933 1.954 1955 1916 1957

MAIZE

Kenya' sh /cwt. 12.7 14.6 17.9 22.1 23.7 23.6 22.6 22.6 23.8 23.8Southern :Rhodesia 1 . . sh./bag, ... 35.0 37.5 45.5 41.5 40.5 40.5 39.0 40.0 :38.0Uganda 2.2 cents/lb. 5 5 5 7 14 15 8 14 11 ...Union of S. Africa, 4 . . sh./bag 22.0 22.0 24.0 26.5 30.0 32.0 31.0 30.0 29.5 28.7

GROTjNDNuTs

Nigeria 5,0 4/long ton 19.2 21.2 21.2 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.5 36.4 33.4 ...Senegal 2,7 . fes.CFA/kg. 14.5 14.5 24.0 18.6 18.9 20.0 21.4 20.1 20.1 ...

COCOA

Ghana 5'8 qlong ton 121.3 84.0 1:30.7 149.3 130.7 134.4- 149.3 149.3 149.3 134.4Ivory Coast 2," . . . . fcs. CFA/kg. ... 63 ... ... 89 88 167 93 61 86Nigeria 59 qlong ton '120 100 120 170 170 170 200 200 150 150

COFFI1E

Kenya 2 sh./cwt. 161 350 373 416 436 509 425 471 518 ...Ivory Coast, 2," . . . . fcs. CFA/kg. ... 35 73 109 110 148 12129 1290 12106 ...Uganda 4,10 cents/lb. 19 21 25 40 50 70 100 75 76 ...

COTTON (unginned)

French Equat. Africa" . fes. CFA/kg. ... ... ... 25 25 25 24 24 24 26Uganda 4,11 cents/lb. 22 30 33 45 50 50 51 61 55 57

a reduction in most producer prices, so that theterms of trade have tended to deteriorate.

:Producer prices, together with the volume ofmarketings, determine the level of the grossincomes of agricultural producers. Productionchanges often have a very sharp effect on grossincomes, especially now that producer prices aregenerally fixed in advance and do not reflect,even partially, the level of the crop. In Nigeria,for example, total marketings of groundnuts fellfrom 320,000 tons :in 1948/49 to only 130,000tons in 1950/51 and., with the guaranteed pro-ducer price only slightly raised, the gross va-lue of the crop declined by more than half.In Ghana there have been sharp annual fluctua-tions in the level of the cacao crop and in sever-al years the effect on producers' gross receiptshas been accentuated by changes in pricesannounced before the size of the crop was known.

National inconie estimates are now preparedfor most of the larger territories in Africa Southof the Sahara and in most cases they includeseparate estimates of the income of the agri-cultural sector, with an imputed value for sub-sistence production. The la,rge volume of pro-duction that is for subsistence only i.s a majorproblem in calculating national incomes in mostterritories, both conceptually and because ofthe lack of data concerning its level. For mostareas national income data still cover only arather limited number of years and are somewhatout of date, so that it is not yet possible toevaluate general postwar trends in agriculturalincomes in the region as a whole. :Detailedanalysis of agricultural incomes in most indi-vidual territories is also not possible, as infor-mation is not published on tire composition ofthese incomes and on agricultural and non-agri-cultural population. The most complete agri-cultural income data that arc regularly pub-lished are for the 'Union of South Africa andfor European farmers in Southern Rhodesia.

Consumer Prices

While the detailed analysis of consumerprices lies outside the scope of this broad survey,studies of variations in these prices amongdifferent parts of a territory and at differentseasons are of considerable importance in deter-mining marketing policy. Because of the largevolume of o:utput which is not marketed, pro-duction changes have a very sharp effect ontire size of the, marketed surplus and it is there,-

116

fore likely that food prices are subject to large:fluctuations in many areas.

Indices of the cost of living and of retail foodprices are now published for a number of terri-tories, but most of them are limited to largetowns aild some to time cost of living of Europeansonly. In most territories for which data areava,ilable, movements in the index of retailfood prices (where African expenditure is in-cluded, food is a very large part of the generalindex) h.ave been very close to those in tire gen-eral cost of living. In Ghana, NorthernRhodesia, and Uganda, however, food priceshave recently increased more rapidly.

Increases in cost of living indices have var-ied rather widely. Between 1948 and 1956

the increase in the Belgian Congo and Mauri-tius was little more than 20 percent, in Ghanaover 30 percent, in the Federation of Rhodesiaand Nyasalapd and in the 'Union of South Africaabout 40 percent, and. in the three British EastAfrica territories of the order of 50 percent.The largest increases in this period were inFrench West Africa (nearly 80 percent) andFrench Equatorial Africa (about 140 percent).The rapid inflation in th.e French territories isattributed mainly to the large volume of devel-opment pxpenditure and to the introductionof minimum wages and other social provisions.Prices rose so rapidly in the earlier postwar yearsthat special measures, including reductions infreight rates, indirect taxes, and marketing mar-gins became necessary. As a result, consumerprices have been held fairly stable since about1952, though during .1957 there was a renewedsharp rise.

FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRI-TION

Having outlined the :main features of theagricultural production of Africa South of theSahara, it is necessary to examine the extentto which this production provides a satisfactorydiet, in quantity and quality, for the populationof the region. An account i.s first given of themain dietary patterns and: of the food habitswhich influence them. The existing data Onactual food consumption levels in differentareas are then briefly summarized, togeth.erwith the principal factors determining these "(v-eis of consumption. After an account of theextent and the effects of malnutrition in the

region, some of the more :important IlleaSLIMSbeing undertaken to improve this position areoutlined.

Dietary Patterns

As in the other economically underdevelopedregions, the diet of the majority of the popula-tion of Africa South of the Sahara is limitedessentially to the foods that inc produced lo-cally. While, as indicated above, food im-ports have grown rapidly, these are consumedmainly by urban dwellers or a irOW more pros-perous farmers and play a very small part inthe nutrition of the great MASS of the population.The diversity of diets is further reduced by- re-strictions imposed by soils and climatic diffi-culties on the range of crops that cau . be pro-duced locally.

Dietary patterns, therefore, correspond fairlyclosely to the conditions of climate and vege-tation shown in Figure HI-1 above. FigureIII-6 broadly distinguishes the principal dietaryzones of Africa South of the Sahara accordingto their staple foods.18 This map is, of course,highly schematic and (loes not show the man.yvariations in diet caused by local differences intopography (especially in East Africa,), climate,soils, and food habits, but .it is an. approximateindication of the position :for the bulk_ of thepopulation of the region. In addition, withinthe main zones shown on the map, there arespecial population groups, including pastoraltribes, fishermen, and urban dwellers, whosediets Will be described. separately.

In the sparsely populated drier parts of theregion (mainly savannah and seasonal forest), ina broad belt south of the Sahara desert and alsoaround the Kalahari desert, the staple :foodsare sorghum and millet which are well adaptedto the dry climate and prov.ide about 75 percentof the calories. Meals consist essentially of aball of millet or sorghum meal which is dippedin a sauce or seasoning. Maize, rice, cowpeas,groundnuts, and Bambara groundnuts are sub-sidiary foods, replaced by cassava and sweetpotatoes when the granaries are empty at theend of the short rainy season. Although live-stock is numerous in this Z011e, meat and milkare rare, while fruit and vegetables are not avail-

"The staple food is defined as the product which,over the .year Os U. whole, is the largest contributorto the total calorie supply. In most ateas the staplefood accounts for as much as GO to 80 percent oftotal calories.

117

FIGURE Africa South of the SaharaMain Staple Food Zones

E; Millets and sorghums

P.7.1 Maize

gD. Rice

Starchy roots and plantains

able throughout the dry season of fi:ve to sevenmonths.

In a large, part of the savannah zone of Eastand Southern Africa, millet has more or :lessbeen replaced by maize as the staple food. Thetwo crops are often found together and are alsoassociated with sorghum, rice, peas and beans,white,Mdlere the rainfall is better, the starchyroots are also of some importance. The ballof :millet, maize (in the form of meadie meal or"posho") or root crops are eaten with a sauceof fermented beans, peppers, baobab and hibiscusleaves, etc. The " hungry season " is shorterthan in the drier zone described above and incertain ii:Ti.gated areas th.ere are two harvests of'maize and rice in th.e year. Meat, milk, eggs,and fish are, rare and the consumption of greenvegetables, tomatoes, ,pawpaws, mangues, citrusfruit, etc., is small.

The tropical rain. forest .is the zone of thestarch.y roots and plantains. Although one ofthese crops .18 generally dominant, as, :170r exam-ple, cassava ill fl i u elm of the _Belgian Congo andof French Equatorial Africa, plantains in most

of:Uganda and parts of Ghana and the IVoryCoast, and yams in parts of the ivory Coastand Nigeria, a number of them are always as-sociated and are sometimes of equal importance.They are usually boiled and eaten with a sanceof groundnuts, spinach, hibiscus and cassavaleaves, and palm oil. Cassava flour (" fan ")is cooked and eaten as a paste (" luku. ") orfermented (" chikouangue ") with a sauce ofpahn oil and sometimes dried fish. Beeause oftrypanosomiasis, incat is even rarer than else-where and the small supply of animal proteincomes mainly from such small game as palmrats and from caterpillars and termites. Fishis hardly found except in the diets of riverainand coastal populations.

Generally speaking, going from the driesta.reas toward the tropical rain .forest there isa steady decrease in the importance of cerealsin the diet and they tend to be replaced by thestarchy roots and plantains. In Nigeria, forexample, at Zuru in the Northern Region anaverage intake of cereals of 806 grams per daywas found, compared with only 15 grams ofstarchy roots at Bida, further south in thesame region, cereals intake had fallen to 569grams per day and that of starchy roots hadrisen to 204 grains ; at Mbaneje, in the forestzone of the Eastern Region, the positions werecompletely reversed, with a daily intake ofonly 15 grams of cereals and 1,627 grams ofstarchy roots and plantains.19 In most of theforest zone starchy roots and plantains providea very high proportion of the total intake ofcalories. At Bongouanou, Ivory Coast, theyprovided as lunch as 8.1 percent of total calo-ries, and cereals anoth.er 4 percent."

In addition to the three main zones describedabove, rice is the staple food in certain areas,for example in Casamance (Senegal) and thewestern part of the forest zone of the IvoryCoast, Gambia, Sierra Leone, Liberia, the Nigervalley above Timbuctu (French Sudan), Kivu(Belgian Congo), parts of Tanganyika, and theeastern part of Madagascar. Apart from theseareas where it is the staple food, rice i.s popularalmost everywhere, in pa,rt because it is rela-tively easy to prepare.

19B. M. Nicol., " Nutrition of Nigerian PeasantFarmers," British journal of Nutrition, Vol. 3, No. 1,.Sept. 1949 ; id. The Clin ical and Nutritional Condi-tion of the Population of .11 baneje, near .fludn, Ogoja,1954.

2° Enquae nutrition-niveau de vie (Subdivision deBongouanou 1955-1956), Territoire de la COte-d'Ivoire, Service de statistique. Rapport n" 4, 1955.

118

The diets of the pastoral tribes, Fulani, Ma-sai, etc., cannot be placed in any of the above ca-tegories. Their diets were formerly based onlivestock products, especially curdled milk :mixedwith blood. They now tend to consume morecereals, obtained from neighboring agriculturalT?opulations in exc,h.ange for milk and meat.

In Africa South of the Sahara as a whole,fish :is the most important potential source ofanimal protein. The fishermen tend to havethe largest intake of protein in the region, butotherwise they generally eat only a tittle starchyroots and cereals and their diets are lacking invegetables and fr..itits.

Urban diets, influenced by contact with Euro-peans, have lost most of their traditional char-acter. The consumption of white bread isincreasing rapidly and is eVerl spreading fromthe towns to rural areas. Well supplied dailymarkets permit time purchase of meat, fish, andmitk, products :which are comparatively rarein most village markets. In the towns, how-CVOY, the quantity and quality of diets is deter-mined by purchasing power. Time more pros-perous officials and traders achieve :Europeanlevels of food consumption, but th.e lower-paidworkers, especially those newly arrived fromthe bush. or with large families to support,find themselves worse off than in their villages.

A final special class of diet is that of the em-ployees of mines and other 'large industries whoEve in compounds or camps and are fed bytheir employers. In most territories the com-position of their ration is prescribed by law.Generally it .is in conformity with their tradition-al .food habits and 18 nutritionally satisfactory,but sometimes the difficulty of obtaining orpreparing some traditional foods causes the useof processed products, such as milled rice ormaize meal, and leads to rather monotonousdiets. Nevertheless, the diets of these workersare generally superior in both quantity andquality to those which they obtain in their vil-lages.

Food Habits

Food consumption is governed by many weltestablished :rules and customs. Children aregenerally breast-len for as long as 18 monthsor t:wo venus artless another :pregnancy inter-venes. At time age of five or six months theyai.e given additional foods, such as millet or

maize gruel, mashed bananas or cassava bread.At weaning, milk i.s cwnpletely replaced bythese starchy foods and the diet becomes highlyunsatisfactory. All animal products tend to beexcluded from the diet, either because they areconsidered inappropriate" at this age or 'becausetaboos completely forbid their consumption.

In mot parts of Africa South of the Sahara,meat is rarely consumed, fui even where thereis no tsetse fly and cattle are numerous, the cattleowner attaches more :importance ti) their num-bers than to their value as a productive or mar-ketable reSource. Except for festivas and °etc-brations, cattle are eaten only when they dieof old age or disease. Chickens and eggs arereserved mainly for gifts. Moreover game isnow becoming comparatively scarce over mostof the region.

Milk is still traded in only very small quanti-ties. In the :north of Uganda it is so littleprized that certain pastoral tribes liVe on milletand root crops and give away the milk to theirherdsmen. Butter is often used as an oint-ment or cosmetic and seldom occurs in the diet.In the to:wns and a :few other areas, h.owevec,the properties of milk are better appreciated,but llore its high price puts it beyond the rangeof all but the most privileged classes.

Where fish are found locally they are gen-erally greatly appreciated. In addition, with afew important exceptions, including the .Bantuof the Uni011 of South Africa, the African isparticularly fortd of dried, smoked or salted:fish, even, an.el sarmetimes especially, when itstaste and smell are very strong. Unfortunate-ly, it is generally too expensive in relationto the ille0111.(3 of th.e average consumer.

While a great, variety of fruits and vegetablesare to be found in Africa South of the Sahara,many llave been neglected or their cultivationaffrandoned. In the forest zone, however, foodgathering, especially by children, adds to thevariety of the diet. There is a great need toencourage the cultivatim of a larger varietyof fruits and vegetables.

'While food taboos are tending gradually todisappear, they remain a powerful obstacle toprogress and education in many areas. Themost important, from the nutritional point ofview, cover the consumption of animal proteinby the vulnerable groups of the population.Almost everywhere most animal products areexcluded from the diet of pregnant W01:11011,

nursing mothers, and young children.

119

Food Consumption Levels

While a :Food balance sheet is regularly pub-lished only for the Union of South Africa,food consumption surveys have now been car-ried out in many parts of the :region.

'Table III-I 5 summarizes the results of a fewof these tillrVeyti, tal«-m from both the tropicalforest and the savannah rones, includin.g (thelast :four surveys shrewn in the table) some ofthe drier parts of the latter. The resultsshown are daily averages for the year as awhole. Many other dietary surveys have beencarried out or are :in progress in different, Trartsof the region, such as Basutoland, Gambia,Madagascar, Ruanda-Iltundi, Senegal, Tanga-nyika, Uganda, the Union of South Africa andUpper Volta. Those show-mi in the table arechosen mainly for the comparability of theirresults. While th.ey are ail fui' West Africa,it is believed, oil the basis of the broadconclusions of the surveys made in other areas,that they are fairly representative of conditionsin the region as a whole. Specific results ofsome of these other surveys will be cited forcomparison.

These results confirm the heavy preponder-ance of carboh.ydrates in th.e diet, carbohy-drates providing from 60 to 85 percent of thetotal calorie intake. Annual average caloriesupplies appear to be :fairly close to estimatedrequirements in all cases except for the chil-dren surveyed in Eastern Nigeria. It shouldbe pointed out, however, that these calorie re-quirements are calculated on the basis of thepresent state (weight, actiVity, etc.) of the pop-ulation and that they would probably begreater if a more adequate diet WCre availablefrom ami early age. To so me extent this under-estimation. of true calorie requirements may beoffset, especially for the children, by the factthat some of the calorie intake from food gather-ing Illay escape record.

Protein requirements are particularly difficultto estimate accurately, as they vary with thequality of the protein con.surned, which dependson its source. Nevertheless, it is clear from'.1.'altle III-1 5 that in many cases the requiremerntuf protein is far from being satisfied, the defi-ciency being much greater than the probablediscrepancy in. calculated requirements. AtAttitogort, :in French Togoland, protein. intakewas only about half of estimated require-ments, and among the children aged from four

TA

BL

E 1

11-1

5.A

FRIC

A S

oc-T

R o

F T

HE

SA

HA

RA

: IN

TA

KE

OP

CA

LO

RIE

S A

ND

NU

TR

IEN

TS

PER

DA

Y (

AN

NT

_TA

L A

VE

RA

GE

) C

OM

PAR

ED

WIT

FI E

STIM

AT

ED

RE

QU

IRE

ME

NT

S, S

EL

EC

TE

D D

IET

AR

Y S

UR

VE

YS

Sotin

cEs

:J.

Pri

ssé,

Une

enq

uille

alim

enta

ire

sur

les

popu

latio

ns d

a T

ogo,

Ins

t'tut

de

raeh

ereh

es d

a T

ogo,

LO

IC).

1957

.E

nytê

te n

utri

tion

- ni

veau

de

vie

(Sub

divi

sion

de

Bon

goua

nou

1955

-195

6), T

erri

toir

e de

la C

9te-

d'Iy

oire

, Rap

port

n. 4

, 195

5. B

.M.N

icol

, The

Clin

ical

and

Nut

ritio

nal C

ondi

tion

of th

e Po

pula

tion

of M

bane

je n

ear

Dud

a,O

goja

, 195

4. B

.11.

1.N

icol

, "N

utri

tion

of N

iger

ian

Peas

ant F

arm

ers,

"B

ritis

h, J

ourn

alN

utri

tion,

Vol

. 1, N

o. 1

, Sep

t.19

49.

The

Clin

ical

and

Nut

ritio

nC

ondi

tion

of ti

me

Popu

latio

n of

Jar

awaj

i nea

r T

rulg

o, B

ornu

, 195

4.M

ales

.=

Fem

ales

.C

liild

ren,

age

d 7-

12.

'Chi

ldre

n, a

ged

4-6.

AR

EA

Stap

le f

oods

Cal

orie

sPr

otei

nC

arbo

hydr

ates

Fats

Cal

eitu

uV

itam

in A

Thi

amin

efi

arm

eN

iaei

neA

slec

Ve

In-

take

Ren

t.A

ll3pe

r-In

--,

-; vA

ni-

To-

Cal

or-

7.; m

-, o

,F,,,

To-

In-

''', '

In-

,,,,,,

,In

-.:,

; ,-,

,_In

-n-

:-= w

m-

i,A

.S

cell-

tage

take

'-' ,-,

mal

tal

I

les

4,,,,

`P.

s'i3

tal

take

n'''

take

'''''''

take

'-''

talc

o. ,-

,ke

talc

o'--

-,

Tro

pica

l For

est

Num

ber

("ra

los

Num

°Ag

.M

illif

fam

s. I

. U.

Mill

igra

ms

Atti

togo

n(F

renc

hT

ogo-

land

)C

assa

va. m

aize

1 9

94.2

008

99 2

9.2

59.4

939

6 1

584

7930

801

950

6 00

0 4

300

1.3

1.2

0.5

1.5

8.5

1254

67

Bon

goua

nou

(Ivo

ry C

oast

)Y

ams

2 16

6 2

183

99 6

588

2644

51 7

8085

2074

7 1

054

4 38

0 4

391

1.7

1.2

0.9

1.6

13.9

11 3

4171

Mba

neje

(E

aste

rn N

iger

ia)'

Yam

s2

393

2 54

294

64.

5 65

2.6

450

1 80

075

3164

2...

110

00...

2.7

1.2

0.9

1.5

1612

216

60

Mba

neje

(E

aste

rn N

iger

ia)

2Y

ams

1 95

0 2

078

94 5

3.5

652.

4 36

0 1

940

7428

537

... 1

3000

.1.

6 1.

2 0.

7 1.

516

10 1

7760

Mba

neje

(E

aste

rn N

iger

ia)

3Y

ams

1 52

1 2

064

74 3

965

1.4

300

1 20

079

2137

3...

7 0

00...

1.3

0.9

0.5

1.0

96

144

30

Mba

neje

(E

aste

rn N

iger

ia)

4Y

ams

906

1 48

061

25

600.

9 18

373

281

1025

3...

3 2

000.

8 0.

6 0.

3 0.

9 5

690

30

Sovo

aaal

e,

Ale

aba

(Fre

nch

Tog

ola.

nd).

Mill

eai

ze,

rice

2 18

3 2

213

99 4

5.6

636.

3 43

2 1

728

7929

566

......

......

......

Bid

a. (

Nor

ther

n N

iger

ia)

1.M

illet

, roo

ts 2

639

2 7

5096

7595

348

6 1

944

7444

489

SOO

5 1

74 3

000

3.2

1.6

0.7

1.6

1917

9873

Saw

tale

(Fr

ench

Tog

olan

d)M

illet

1 79

7 1

953

92 5

461

......

......

......

..

....

Jara

waj

i(N

orth

ern

Nig

e-ri

a) 1

Sorg

hum

2 97

7 2

545

1171

07...

29

587

2 34

879

371

396

1 00

092

6 4

600

3.0

1.5

1.1

1.52

710

12.5

60

Jara

waj

i(N

orth

ern

Nig

e-ri

a)'

Sorg

hum

2 65

0 1

907

139

92...

2449

7 1

588

6033

1 13

0...

1 2

00 3

500

3.0

1.5

1.1

1.5

2110

16

36

Jara

waj

i (N

orth

ern

Nig

e-ri

a) 4

Sorg

hum

1 48

0 1

480

100

56...

22

242

868

5923

1 09

096

0 1

300

1.6

0.5

0.6

0.9

126

630

to s.ix at Mbaneje in Eastern Nigeria even less.In the cases shown in the table, the :intake ofanimal protein was generally very low. Thehighest proportions of animal protein were:found in the prosperous cacao-growing arca ofBongouanou (about 40 percent of total proteinintake), W,here much food is purchased, and atJarawaji., Northern Nigeria, where the popula-tion combines agricultural, pastoral, and fish-ing activities and consuMCS milk and fishdaily. It is significant, however, that even inthe latter area the bulk of the protein camefrom vegetable sources. An extreme case isfound among certain tribes in Uganda, whereanimal protein intake is nil, the fairly highprotein intake of 99 grams per day comingentirely from plant, sources, mainly peas andbeans. 21- With most of the protein comingfrom vegetable sources, it therefore varies ac-cording to the staple food. While it is highwhere pulses are the staple food, there is alsogreat variation as between cereals and the star-chy roots and plantain group, the former yield-ing more protein, in relation to their carbohy-drate content, than the latter.

The fats in the diet a,re also very largely ofvegetable origin (groundnuts, palm oil, sin%butter, according to the region). Consump-tion is low except in the greundnut-producingareas (up to 44 grains per day at Bida, Nigeria)and in the forest zone 'where palm oil is found.While the consumption of fats was never morethan about 30 grams per day in the forestareas shown in the table, at Evodoula, ',FrenchCalll'efOORS, it was found to be as high. as 54grains per d 22ay. At the other extreme, at(liso, Uganda, where neither of these SOUrCeS offats are available in quantity, the consumption offats was found to be as low as 7 grams per day.23

Compared with the theoretical requirementscalculated for other regions, calcium intake wasfound to be sufficient only where milk andfish are consumed (Jarawaji, Northern Nigeria).These requirements, however, depend On otherfactors, such as the calcium/phosphorus ratio andthe vitamin I) and phytie acid content of the diet.

As regards vitamins, the table shows a defi-ciency of vitamin 132 (riboflavine) in all the areas

" J. Gongora and T. Norris, WHO consultants[Personal communication]. 1957.

" R. Masseyeff and A. Cambon. Enquétes surl'alimentation au Cameroun, I : Evodoula. Institutde, recherches du Cameroun, Ministère de la Franced'Outre-Mer, Paris, 1953.

23 J. Gongora aral T. Norris. WHO consultants[Personal communication]. 1957.

121

for which data are available. Vitamin A ap-pears to be sufficient in the forest zone, wherepalm oil is available, but deficient in th.e drierareas. Vitamin C (ascorbic acid) also, whilegenerally sufficient 'in the :forest zone, 'was foundto be lacking in an arid area in 'Northern Ni-geria. T.he vitamin deficiencies, as well asthose of calcium and other minerals, are closelyassociated with the lack of green vegetablesand :fruit in the di.et. The deficiencies foundin these dietary surveys are generally confirmedby the results of clinical surveys.

Factors Influencing Food Consumption

While the subsistence fanner consumes onlywhat he produces or obtains by food-gather-ing and hunting, at the other extreme, employeesin the large towns llave to purchase all of theirfood supplies, except where these are furnishedby their employers. Table 111-16 shows datafrom some recent expenditure surveys, whichmake possible a study of the food expendituresand consumption patterns of the growing in-termediate group, consisting of fanners pro-ducing cash crops and purchasing some oftheir food, and their comparison with the po-sition in urban areas.

In the first three cases shown in the table,representing various degrees of urbanization,some 56-59 percent of total expenditures (in-cluding subsistence) was devoted to food anddrink, while in the three rural ce,nters this pro-portion was as high as 73-78 perce,nt. Theproportion of purchases in the total value offood consumed varied very 'widely. The highestpercentages 'ere, as might be expected, foundamong the wage-earners in Kumasi and thetraders in the Ivory Coast. It is interesting,.hoNVCVer, that the farmers in Nigeria purchaseda much higher percentage of their total foodthan those in the ivory Coast, indicating dif-ferent degrees of development of a marketeconomy. In Nigeria, cacao farmers in ruralsettlements purchased 72 percent of their food,compared with only 51 percent for cacao farm-ers living in market centers ; this anomaly isexplained by the fact that those in the lattergroup generally have larger farms.

In terms of calories, the proportion of foodpurchased was lower in all cases than the cor-responding proportion in money terms, indi-cating that fcmcl. purchases :relate palticularlyto the more expensive sources of calories, suchas aninial products. In fact, animal products

TABLE III-16. .A.FRECA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA : EXPENDITURE ON FOOD AND DRINK IN SI HJECTED AREAS

were found to be as much as 30-40 percent oftotal food expenditures (including subsistence)expressed in money values, though their propor-tion in the diet was very small.

The large differences in food expenditure asa percentage of total expenditure found be-tween towns and rural areas suggest that thelevel of income is an important influence onfood consumption, but few data are availablefor an examination of this relationship. InKumasi, for which the data are shown accordingto income classes, high income elasticities werefound for some products. For bread and ce-reals the income elasticity is estimated to be ashigh. as 1.6, compared with 0.5 for starchy roots,indicating a strong preference for the former inan area where the latter are actually the staple:foods. It is also 'very significant that the in-come elasticity for meat products was foundto be as much as 1.0.

In the towns another important 'influence onfood consumption is the size of the :family, anincrease more or less amounting to a reductionin per caput income. Available data indicatethat 'ami increase in. tlIC SiZe of family may causea sharp reduction in both the quantity and qual-ity of the diet.

A very important influence on. food consump-tion 'in many rural areas are SOILS011al variationsin the availability of food. Table

122

tionnems : Kumasi Suer, y of Population. aud Household Budgets, 1955, Accra, 1956 ; R. 0alletti, K. D. S. 'Baldwin and T. 0. Dina,.Nigeria uoroal'armers [Londotil. 1956, pp. 462 and 489 ; Eramac nutrition-niveau de vie (Subdivision de .Bongoltanou1955-1956). Rapports, 1.1. 3-5, Service de statistique, COte-d'Ivoire, 1955.

'Including^ subsistence valued at lo';' l marketI : Wage-cull'IWrA in Kumasi (Miami).II : Cacao Meiners in Nigeria, living in towns.III : Cacao farmers in Nigeria, living in market centers.IV : Cacao farmers in Nigeria, living in rural settlements.V : Cacao/coffee farmers in rural centers, Ivory Coast.VI : Traders in rural centers, Ivory Coast.

pares seasonal variations in total calorie supplies in relation to estimated requirements infour areas of Northern Nigeria. In Langai.,-where estimated requirements are approxi-mately covered by the annual average intake ofcalories, and in Bunga-Ningi, where they aresubstantially exceeded, seasonal variations arecomparatively small. In th.e other two areas,in contrast, the annual average calorie intakeis below estimated requirements as a result ofvery marked seasonal fluctu.ations. In the pe-riod immediately preceding the harvest the in-take in Southwest Borgu fell to less than twothirds of estimated requirements. This problemof the "hungry season" or preharvest shortageis :round mainly in the drier areas, where cropproduction is possible for only a very limitedperiod of the year. It is aggravated by inade-quate storage and, in some areas near the largercenters of population, e.g., Tanganza and S011th-AVOSI, Borgu, by the sale of too much of the :har-vest. Not only is the quantity of the dietreduced at this period, but its quality also fallsbecause of' the substitution of root crops, con-taining less protein, for cereals, while wild fruitand vegetables, sources of vitamins and mine-rals, are also scarce a,t this ame. In some areasconsiderable progress lia,s recently been made inovercoming this 'problem. In Gambia, for exam-ple, a survey made in 1945/46 found extreme-

ITEM IC II r IV VI

Perec ttage

Food e,xponditure in relation to total expen-diture 57 56 59 73 77 78

Food purchased in relation to totaconsumed

:Atone), value 100 70 51 72 28 83Calories 100 60 46 70 10 70

Animal products in relation to total foodconsumed

Mon e,y valtie :39 38 31Calories 2 4 8

TABLE III-17. NORTHERN REGION OF NIGERIA : SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN CALORIE INTAKE,COMPARED WITH ESTIMATED REQUIREMENTS, 1956/57

AREA.

13unga-Ningi

Tanganza

Langai

Southwest Borgu

AnnualI

2 250

2 550

2 060

ly Aarp seasonal variations, but more recentreports indicate that they have now been vir-tually eliminated. The problem hardly existsin the forest zone, where root crops can be har-vested throughout the year and can be storedin the ground, while the diet can always besupplemented by food-gathering.

While every family has its small granaries orstorage units, these are generally no defenceagainst the numerous pests and parasites ofstored food and it is probable that in some areasas much as one third of the harvest is lost dur-ing storage. The improvement of family andvillage storage i.s ami urgent need in many partsof the region, while in SO.MC areas the construc-tion of further bulk storage capacity is also nec-essary in order to eliminate temporary short-ages of food..

Nutritional StatusIn general, the inhabitants of Africa South

of the Sahara have enough to eat, though foodshortages occur in certain, areas during the" hungry season " preceding the harvest andduring long periods of dreught. The increasein food. production referred to earlier in thischapter has meant a slight but steady rise inper caput consumption during th.e last ten years.Available information suggests that averagedaily calorie supplies per caput in central andtropical Africa are now around 2,250, as againstan average of some 2,100 in 1949. These are,of course, rough estimates, but the conclusionthat an increase has occurred finds some supportfrom the results of recent dietary surveys.

Calorie intake

2 920

2 850

2 570

ji III

Calories per person 'per day

2 920 3 040 3 000

1 840

2 400

2 000

2 890

2 000

2 300

1 620

SOURCE : Annual Report, Nutrition Unit, Federal .2:Vedic:al Department, 1957'. N'geria, 1958.Males over :12 years.

I : Just after harvest.IT : Midway 'between harvests.III : Just before harvest.

Intake in relation to requirements

Annualaverage

Pereentafie

1 1 6

88

102

81

There is, however, abundant evidence tifqualitative defects in African diets .which ad-versely affect the health of the population. Upto 85 percent of total calories may be obtainedfrom cereals and starclly roots, which are poorsources of many of the nutrients needed byhuman beings. The most serious deficiency isthat of protein, ihisufficiency of certain vi-tamins and minerals, including vitatiiin A and.riboflavin, is also of importance in certain areas.

The relation between mortality in a given.age group and malnutrition is invariably com-plex, because, of numerous .factors besides nu-trition which influence health. The informa-tion about the incidence of malnutrition .whichany available mortality figures can providecannot therefore be regarded as more than sug-gestive. Since infants and young children areparticularly vulnerable to malnutrition, atten-tion May be drawn to the high mortality inthe first five years of life. Precise mortalityfigures for this age group are available for onlya few 'limited areas and are especially rare forrural populations. Data obtained either throughspecial demographic studies or through enquiriesconcerned with nutrition indicate that on theaverage about 30 percent of children born alivedie before the age of five. In the lower Sene-gal valley 21 and at Kiga in Uganda, 25 figuresindicating a mortality of about 25 percent and

" Mission socio-éconornique de la basso vallée duSénégal. Elude d6nographique, Service des statisti-ques, Dakar, 1957.

"J. Congora and T. .Norris, WHO consultants[Personal comtnunication]. 1957.

120 119

114 72

114 96

101 78

III

114

78

92

63

Estimatedcalorie

requirement

2 530

2 570

2 500

2 550

occasionally less have been reported. Excep-tionally high figures \\WO recorded amongRuanda tribes which have emigrated to Uganda(50 percent) 26 and in the diamond-mining arcasof Sierra Leone (03 percent). 27 In parts ofTanganyika parents expect one child out oftv() to die before the age of five is reached. 28

Infant mortality, that is, mortality under oneyear of a,ge, reflects the numerous hazards, ofwhich faulty nutrition is only one, which af-flict this period of life. Mortality in the agegroup 1-4 (over one year but under five) maybe more closely related to malnutrition, sinceit is this age group in 'which th.e incidence ofprotein malnutrition (kwashiorkor) is the hi-ghest. 29Iii 'rabio III-18 some figures are givensh.owing infant mortality in children froto 1.

to 4 years in certain areas in Africa South ofthe Sahara, with the corresponding figures forthe United Kingdom included for pnrposes ofcomparison. It must, however, be repeatedthat these .figures are no more than suggestive.

Protein mamut ilion tends to manifest itselfin most serious form during the period after-weaning. It is due primarily to the feedingof young children on diets which are poor inprotein of high biological value, at a time oflife when requirements for protein are high inrelation to body weight because of the demandsof rapid growth. :Protein malnutrition is oftenassociated with malnutrition due to deficiencyof other nutrients besides protein, and malaria,parasitic infestation, and seasonal diarrhea areamong th.e contributory factor s. The followingfigures are illustrative. In. Uganda a carefuland extensive survey revealed that some 10percent of 14,424 children under five examinedwere suffering from malnutrition, the percent-age varying from. 6.6 to 27.3 in different areasof the children betnveen one and three years ofage, 10.5 per cent showed manifestations ofkwashiorkor or protein 'Illahlarit101.1. 26J Tan-ganyika it was reported that 900 cases of malnu-

Gongora and T. Norris, WIER) consultants[Personal communication]. 1957.

" ;I. R. 'Rose, .Kwasitiorkor in the $outh-East Prov-ince of Sierra Leone, Methodist Mission Hospital,Segbwema, 1956.

'-sCecily Williams, Report On the Facilities for theTreatment of Children in Hospital Dispensaries andClinics and thc 'Training of Stuff in Child Care in,'Tanganyika Territory, Health .Departrtient, Tanga-nyika, 1956.

" M. Autret and M. Behar, Sindrome Policaren-eial Infantil (Kwashiorkor)and its Prevention in Cen-tral America. FAO Nutritional Studies No. 13,1954.

124

TABLE III-I8. AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARAINFANT MORTALITY AIN-D _MORTALITY iN THE AGEGROUP 1-4, SELECTED AREAS, wan Co:Li:RESPONDING

FIGURES FOR TICE UNITED KINGDOM

REGIONUmler1 year

(A)

1-1 yearS 1(B)

Itatio

SOLIRCES : Mission Socio-'e moo:ague de la basso vallée du.Sénégal, ktinh! lotographione, Service des statis-tiques, Unkne. 957 ; MiSSion démogrn phique deGuinne. faseieule. Services des slat isIkoLes deFA.-0. P. el. de hi Wain6e, 1956 ; Central StatisticsOffice, 1,4 ract of Statistics, 1556, H. M.Stationery 0111e, . London., 1956.

Over 1 venir but unid,',' iyears.

tuition 'were treated iii hospitals in 1954, andthat many inore cases were probably unnotic-ed." Protein malnutrition 'may not only leadto serious disease and death in young childrenthere is evidence that it may also leave sequelaewhich adversely influence health in later life,even when effective treatment has been givenduring the acute stage. This and other nutri-tional deficiencies affect both physical and mentaldevelopment.

:Beriberi., a disease due to lack of thiamine orvitamin 131, .is mame in Africa South of the Sahara.Scurvy, caused by a deficiency of vitamin C,is also tare, though mild scorbutic symptomshave been observe,d during seasonal droughts.Pellagra, associated with deficiency of niacine,occurs itt certain maize-consuming areas, forexample in Basutoland and parts of Tanganyika,.Deficiency of vitamin A is fairly widespread,leading to serious lesions of time eye and some-times to complete blindness. In Ruanda-Urun-di, signs of vitamin. A deficiency WCFC observedin 39 percent of a group of male children,31 andin the Khombole area in Senegal mild signs'WCre noted in 18 percent of a group of childrenexamined.32

" Annual Report 19,54, IDepartm.ent, of Health,Tanganyika, 1955.

-O. A. Roes, O. Debeir and Marian Trout, 'Vita-min A Deficiency in Ruanda-Urandi, Nutrition La-boratory, IRSAC, Bukavu, 1957.

A.. Raba, Enquilte elinique nutritionelle dans lari. gion de .Khombole (S&Mgal), ORANA, :Dakar, 1957.

Mortality per 1 000children born alive n /age

Lower Senegal Valley. 199 47 24

French Guinea (urban) 142 184 130

French Guinea (rural). 202 126 64

United Kingdom. . . 26 4 15

African d.iets in general are poor in calcium,when their content in this nutrient is comparedwith requirements sometimes recommended bynutrition workers for other regions. No evi-dence of ill health from, this cause has, however,been noted. :Rickets, associated with deficien-(y of vitamin 1), is rarely seen in Africa Southof the Sahara, because of the abundance ofsunlight. The special problem of goiter maybe briefly mentioned. A high incidence ofgoiter has been observed in certain areas inFrench Guinea and Basutoland and in I3bangi-Shari. The introduction of iodized salt to pro-vide :iodine for preventive purposes would_ per-haps be justifiable in such areas, but so far therehave been no successful attempts to introducethis measure.

Available information about the nutritionalstatus and deficiency diseases in Africa pointsto the need to diversify diets by increasing theproduction of foods of animal origin, legumesand vegetables, particularly green leafy vege-tables. ThC problem is, of course, not onlythat of increasing and diversifying food pro-duction. Ignorance of what constitutes a prop-er diet must be countered by snitable educa-tional measures, and general:improvement ofthe diet inevitably depends to a great extenton an increase in prosperity and purchasingp 0 WET.

Measures to Combat MalnutritionIn parts of Africa South of the Sahara consid-

erable attention has been given to nutritionfer 20 years or more ; these include the 'Unionof South. Africa, the British East African terri-tories, the :Belgian Congo and certain territoriesin French West Africa. Generally speaking,however, it is only since the :war that govern-ments have become awa,re of the importanceof nutrition. A :number of conferences havehelped to focus attention on the gra:vity of theproblem ; among these are the three Inter-African Conferences on Food and Nutrition or-ganized by the Commission for Technical Co-operation in Africa South of the Sahara (CCTA),the first of which was held in. Dschang in theFrench Cameroons in 1949. Special attentionwas given by these conferences to the lack of'personnel trained in nutrition.

FAO and WHO have sought to make goodthis deficiency by organizing nutrition trainingcourses in co-operation with the governmentsconcerned. To date soine training has been

.125

provided to about 100 workers, associated withalmost all countries and territories in AfricaSouth of th.e Sahara. In arcas including theBelgian Congo, French. Togoland, Senegal, theIvory Coast and Uganda the trainees have rein-forced the personnel of existing services ; else-:where, as in Ft.ench. Equatorial Africa, theFrench Cameroon's, Madagascar, and the :Portu-guese territories, they have helped to create newnutrition services. They have been concernedwith surveys of diet and state of nutrition, in-cluding investigations of protein malnutrition,often in association with international workers.

With respect to surveys, reference may bemade to the information on food habits and thevarious factors underlying them :which has beenprovided by anthropological studies and :nutri-tional studies in the French Cameroons, FrenchWest Africa, and the Union of South Africa,and to the surveys of miiilk. production and con-sumption carried out in certain territories, oftenwith assistance from FAO and UNICEF.

To develop satisfactory itmolicies and action:for the improvement of nutrition, more adequatedata on .food production and consumption areneeded. 'These include agricultural productionstatistics which can be used as t.h.e 'basis of foodbalance sheets. Dietary surveys and enquirieson family expenditure on food are of great valuein supplying the information needed for planningfood production. A good many :investigationsof this nature have been undertaken duringrecent years, but more are needed. With re-spect to the relation between diet and health andthe incidence of malnutrition and deficiencydisease, some relevant studies have been made,[nit here again more are required. It is parti-cularly .necessary to obtain more, data on theincidence of protein malnutrition in rural arcas,to supplenient the impressions gained of theseriousness and extent of this conditimt bydoctors in hospitals.

" National nutrition committees " can makea valuable contribution to the solution of nu-trition problems, in Africa as elsewhere, bothin developing a sound food policy and in imple-menting specific :nutrition programs. Commit-tees of this nature are active in some parts ofAfrica, for example in the Union of SouthAfrica and Northern Nigeria. The trainees re-ferred to abo:ve have helped to strengthen someexisting nutrition committees and to establishnew ones, as, for example, in Angola, the CapeVerde Islands, French Equatorial Africa, andthe French Cameroons. Nutrition committees

are now in process of establishment in Ghanaand French Togoland.

A Seminar on Nutrition is being arrangedjointly by FAO and WHO, in 11959, in theBelgian Congo, at :which the progress achievedwill be reviewed. The participants will bemainly the nutrition trainees and special at-tention will be given to the ptoblems and diffi-culties which they have encountered.

Apart 'from long-te,rm measures to improvefood production some more immediate steps toimpro ve n utritio re llave been taken. Supple-muentary. feeding programs have been organized..with UNICEF assistance in the Belgian Congo,French :Equatorial Africa, Kenya, Ruanda-Urundi, Uganda, and other territories, driedskim milk and other foods being distributedthrough schools and maternal and child health.centers. Programs of.l this tinture are nowbeing developed in six territories in FrenchWest Africa, in Gambia and in St. :Helena.Supplementary feeding helps to prevent mal-nutrition amon.g limited groups in the popula-tion and draws attention to the need :for increas-ing the supply of protein-rich foods. In thisconnection, reference .may be made to the possi-bility of using in human nutrition certain pro-cessed foods, such as the presscakes of ground-nut, sesame, and cottonseed, which are at pres-ent largely exported for animal feeding, andalso fish. meal. -Research is at present proceed-ing in the Belgian Congo, Nigeria, Senegal, andUganda on the processing, acceptability, digesti-bility, and biological value of groundnut press-cake, these investigations being supported bya grant made available by the Rockefeller Foun-dation and administered through a committeeof the American National Research. Council,with 'which FA() and -WE.0 are associated.

All programs to improve nutrition, both of an.immediate or long-term nature, should includeeducation in nutrition, the education of mothersin better ways of feeding their children beingparticularly important. Home economics serv-ices, -which are now being developed in a num-ber of territories, can contribute substantiallyto such education.

TECHNICAL PROGRESS IN AGRICUL-TURAL PRODUCTION

Some of the main physical obstacles and tech-nical problems in agricultural, fisheries, andforestry production have already been brieflyreferred to in the introduction to this chapter.

126

Considerable progress has been made in over-coming th.ese problems and has probably beenan important factor in the substantial increasesthat have occurred in the level of productionsince the war. Many technical problems re-main to be solved, however, 'while research andadvisory work is greatly hampered by the short-age of trained technicians. In addition, suchwork has so :far been chiefly concentrated onthe main export crops.

This section of the chapter summarizes :recentprogress in hand utilization, soil fertility andthe improvement of crop, livestock, fisheries,and :forestry .production. The organization ofresearch, extension and training facilities is alsoreviewed.

Land Utilization

The utilization of the basie :resources of soiland water presents certain special problems inAfrica South of time Sahara. As in other tropical..regions, water control and the maintenance ofan adequate vegetative cover are essential.Owing tc.) climatic factors, soil resources areeasily destroyed. and the maintenance or in-crease of fertility depends on managementpractices very different from those of temperateregions. .The preservation or reconstitution offorest cover is frequently essential for continuedcrop production and especially :for the mainte-nance of the .hydratiiic regime).

There is evidence that destruction of vegeta-tion and consequent erosion has continued :formany hundreds of years over large areas. Tra-ditional methods of land use, under the pressureuf .modern economic and social influences andespecially the growth of population, have greatlyaccelerated this process.

Shifting Cultivation. While the greatest singlefactor dominating changes in the vegetationen ver has been the use of fire to pro vide grazingin th.e more arid areas, shifting cultivation hasalso had serious effects in both humid tropical:forests and in drier bush country. Shiftingcultivation requires a long pe,riod to restorefertility and is thus satisfactory only when thereis no severe pressure of population on land re-sources. With the extension of settlement andan enforced stab:ilization of population, thefallow period is not long enough to restore the:fertility ofl the soil.

This problem is being tackled in two ways.In areas of stufficient rainfall attempts are being

made to settle the cultivators by the introduc-tion of suitable crop rotations based on alternatehusbandry and the ley, as, for example, inRhodesia, in East Africa and the savannah zonesof the Belgian Congo. On the poorer soils,attempts are being made to rationalize bush-fallowing, in the Belgian Congo by the " corri-dor " system, with the encouragement of theParasollière as the main agent of regeneration,and in Northern Rhodesia by controlling the" chitemene " system.

Settlement Schemes. In some areas of com-paratively high fertility, as in parts of the trop-ical forest of West Africa and around the GreatLakes in East Africa, a tradition of settled agri-culture has long been established. Here, how-ever, increasing pressure of population hasled to fragmentation of holdings, which haveoften fallen well below an economic minimum.Various measures for consolidation are beinggradually introduced, but this may not alwaysprovide) for surplus population and parallelsettlement or resettlement schemes are neces-sary, involving the taking in of new land forcultivation.

Extensive land-settlement schemes are beingcarried out by many governments, rangingfrom the colonization of reclaimed land, as inRuanda-Ururidi, Mozambique and 'Tanganyika,to the consolidation of fragmented holdings inKenya and resettlement within existing tribalareas as in the Federation of Rhodesia and Nya-saland. The gradual evolution of land tenuresystems and the development of a prosperousclass of farmers demands some form of organizedland use planning and settlement. The major-ity of such schemes are carried out on the basisof aerial survey together with soil and hydro-graphic reconnaissance. They provide a goodopportunity for introducing conservation meas-ures such as contour ridging, terracing, andother erosion control practices. Examples areto be seen along the, Nile-Congo watershed, inRuanda-Urundi and in the Federation of Rho-desia and Nyasaland, but the combination ofconservation measures with land planning isbeing generally applied in such schemes overthe whole region. Although much is being doneto evolve patterns of land settlement based onsound land-use planning, there is still room formany more pilot schemes aimed at a combina-tion of conservation measures, land planningand the application of improved productiontechniques.

127

Water Control. The great hydrological ba-sins, such as the Niger, Congo, and Zambezi,provide considerable reservoirs of untouchedfertility. A number of settlement schemesbased on flood control and irrigation workshave been undertaken or are planned. One of theearliest of these uvas the 0//ice du Niger inFrench West Africa, while one of the largestwill be the Zambezi Multi-Purpose Scheme inMozambique. On several of these rivers, hydro-electric schemes are planned or under construc-tion, while the valleys themselves contain largestretches of at present uninhabited, but poten-tially fertile, land. The development of thesebasins underlines the urgency of watershed man-agement. In areas of intense tropical rainfall,especially where the climax vegetation has beendestroyed or modified by fire, the watershed isparticularly vulnerable. While conservationmeasures are necessary to conserve soil and soilfertility, they are even more necessary to pre-serve water resources and protect the river basinareas from progressive deterioration.

Efficient watershed management affects alsothe regime of springs and streams in semiaridregions. The introduction of improved androtational grazing for the large livestock popu-lations of the tropical savannah belt dependslargely on the provision of increased wateringpoints, which in turn depend on the maintenanceof ground water recharge. The vegetationcover in semiarid areas, once destroyed, is muchmore difficult to restore than that of the humidtropics, and the co-ordination of land and waterdevelopment in these areas must, therefore,proceed on the basis of scientific resource sur-veys to enable the delicate balance betweennatural resources and their utilization to bemaintained. There is great variation withinthe region in the amount of data that havebeen gathered on soil and water resources.Surveys have mainly been undertaken in limitedareas and soil, vegetation, or hydrologicalmaps are usually on a scale of not less than1/200,000.

Irrigation farming is still in its initial stagesin Africa South of the Sahara, although over thegreater part of the region rainfall is inadequatefor sustained crop production. In particularin areas of unimodal rainfall, the long dry sea-son cannot be utilized for any form of crop pro-duction, and underemployment, poverty, andmalnutrition result. The river systenis havescarcely begun to be utilized for crop produc-tion and water storage for agriculture is still

largely confined to European settled areas.The development of hydroelectric power forindustry will provide large quantities of waterfor irrigation and considerable areas will thusbe opened up for land settlement. Serioushuman and physical obstacles remain to beOVOITOIlle, however. Whereas irrigation hasbeen practiced for centuries in the Near Emtand in Asia, it is practically unknown in Africasouth of the Sudan. Following hydrologicaland soil surveys, pilot projects would provide anucleus for training in irrigation practices andwould also enable the investigation of the reae-tion of soils to irrigation and of suitable croppingand cultivation patterns.

Soil FertilityIn spite of extensive research activities, which

have accumulated an important body of scien-tific data, it remains true that, from the pointof view of management and the maintenance and.incroase of fertility, much still remains to belearned regarding suitable practices for tropicaland subtropical soils. Soil science was devel-oped in the temperate regions and soil manage-ment practices cannot necessarily be transferredfrom temperate to tropical climates. Researchis being actively pursued on these problems,the solution of which is of the greatest impor-tance for the general improvement of yields,as a basis for land settlement schemes arid inpreventing a further deterioration in soil fertil-ity by exhaustion and erosion.

In alnaost every territory efforts are beingmudo to improve farm practices by the intro-duction of suitable rotations with leys and theuse of farmyard manure. Progress is, of course,slow and only a small number of farmers haveadopted such improved practices in limitedareas. Such measures, however, constitute animportant part of programs for the developmentof African agriculture, and the establishment ofsystems of mixed farming adapted to the region.

Here again suitable systems have to be evolv-ed which are acceptable to the African farmerand which will scientifically transform his pres-ent cultivation practices. Such a transforma-tion is not only limited by lack of knowledge ofsuitable soil management techniques and of theplant/soil/water relationship of these climaticregions, but by other factors as well. Forexample, no perennial herbage legume has yetbeen found which can be successfully introduc-ed into rotations in tropical Africa for the un-

128

provement of soil conditions. It is possiblethat grass leys receiving heavy dressings ofnitrogen and other plant nutrients will have tobe used for soil improvement. lquch work hasbeen done on the establishment of grass leys,but there is still controversy as to the benefitsin reformation of crumb structure claimed byadvocates of the grass break.

The building up or even the maintenance oforganic matter in cultivated soils always presentsdifficulties, especially in the tropics a,nd sub-tropics. For instance, in the southern Transvaaland other areas no distinct residual effect ofmanure can be shown, nor is the carbon contentof the soil increased by repeated dressings.In some areas this is readily explained by thequick consumption by termites of a,11 the cellu-lose in the manure and in others probably bythe rapid decomposition of organic matter thattakes place under conditions of high temperaturewith alternating - dry and moist spells. Theorganic-matter problem, difficult as it may be,still needs sonic solution through such measuresas the use of large quantities of farmyard ma-nure or compost, the incorporation of crop res-idues into the soil or the use of longer-termgrass leys.

The soil-conditioning effects of tree growthare utilized by the African farmer where bushfallowing is practiced and in the paysannatsindigènes in the forest zone of the Belgian Congowhere shifting cultivation has been rationalizedunder the " corridor " system. It is knownthat an adequate period of bush fallow has abeneficial effect ort future crop yields, but thereasons for this are not well understood. Ex-periments in the Belgian Congo have shownthat, although they declined later, yields ofmaize grown without added fertilizer actuallyincreased in the first two or three years afterbush fallowing to a level nearly double thatreached in the first year after clearing, while'yields were about two thirds of those obtainedwhen fertilizers were also added. Similar re-sults have been obtained with cotton. Theexplanation of this " fertility curve " is obscure,but it involves .important problems of soil con-ditioning and utilization in these area,s, thesolution of which must provide the scientificbasis for replacing bush fallow by other rotations.

Fertilizers are virtually not used outside areasof European settlement, because of the lowdensity of population, the fact that so muchproduction is for subsistence only and the highcost of fertilizers in relation to the price of agri-

cultural products. Although the use of ferti-lizers is gradually increasing, only in the Unionof South Africa, the Federation of Rhodesia andNyasaland, and in Kenya are any appreciableamounts yet applied.

Supplies of fertilizer are highly localized.Phosphate rock deposits have been developedin the northern Transvaal and aluminium-calcium phosphate is being mined in Senegal.Calcium phosphate is also mined in Senegal,as well as in French Togoland and in FrenchEquatorial Africa, while other deposits, la,rgelyor totally underveloped, occur in French WestAfrica and Southern Rhodesia. In Kenya andUganda rock phosph.ate is processed into sodaphosphate and a pilot plant in Uganda produceshigh-grade apatite containing 41 percent P205.At present no deposits of potassium are exploit-ed, although a large layer of potassium saltshas recently been discovered near Pointe-Noirein French Equatorial Africa. Only in theUnion of South Africa is there any manufactureof nitrogen fertilizers (about 10,000 tons nitro-gen), but the development of large-scale hydro-electric projects may be expected to provide fortheir production in other parts of the region.

Broadly speaking, phosphorus is the basisfor improved agricultural production over thewhole region., particularly for annual or short-lived crops. When the nee,d for phosphorus issatisfied, nitrogen must be supplied in largequantities, especially for certain crops such assugar calle, cotton., maize, groundnuts, andbananas. The addition of potassium gives in-creased yields of a number of crops such astobacco, maize, wheat, coconut palm, bananas,and cassava, especially on certain soils, and itis possible that with an increased use of phos-phorus and nitrogen, more potassium will beneeded.

In addition to these major33 elements, thereis evidence that deficiencies of secondary ele-ments (calcium, magnesium, sulphur) and of'in icroautrient elements (iron, zinc, manganese,copper, boron, and molybdenum) are also lower-ing crop yields. Research on secondary andmicronutrient element deficiencies has beenextensively carried out in the Union of SouthAfrica, where it has been shown that zinc de-

33 Elements essential to plant growth have beendivided for convenience into major, secondary, andmicronutrient or trace. This subdivision refers mere-ly to the relative quantities of the nutrient ele-ments taken up by plants and not to their relativeimportance, all of them being essential.

129

ficiency is very widespread for citrus, that ap-plications of manganese, magnesium, zinc, cop-per, and iron are needed for optimum productionof deciduous fruits in many arcas and that man-ganese deficiency is a widespread limitation formaize and other cereals. Work 011 secondaryelements and micronutrients is also being carriedout in many other territories on a variety ofcrops. Zinc deficiencies appear to be the mostwidespread, having been observed in the Feder-ation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland, the FrenchCameroons, French F,quatorial Africa, FrenchWest Africa, Gambia, Ghana, Kenya, Swazi-land, Tanganyika, Uganda, and Zanzibar, chief-ly with citrus but also with deciduous fruits,oil palm, pineapples, bananas, and groundnuts.Magnesium deficiencies also occur widely andare no doubt responsible for low yields in manyplaces, having been observed in Basutoland withmaize, in French Equatorial and French WestAfrica with oil palm, citrus, bananas, and ground-nuts, in Gambia with a variety of crops, inKenya and the Federation of Rhodesia audNyasaland with deciduous fruits, in Swazila,ndwith maize and tung, in 'Tanganyika with to-matoes and in Zanzibar with cacao. Importantdeficiencies of other secondary and micro-nutrient elements have also been recorded witha variety of crops.

Another factor which may have wide signifi-cance has emerged from comprehensive experi-ments with coffee conducted at the East Afri-can Agriculture and Forestry Research. Organi-zation. They llave shown that mulches are farmore important in raising coffee yields by im-proving the soil/water regime than the applica-tion of plant nutrients. The correction of thesenutrient deficiencies did not by itself make fora sustained high level of production.

Farm Implements and MachineryCrop production is essentially ba.sed on manual

labor in most parts of Africa South of the Saharaand crops are planted rather than sown. Asso-ciations of different crops frequently occupythe same field plots, thus favoring cultivationpractices which are more a form of gardeningthan field cropping. Cultivation in forest arcasunder the shadow protection of other vegeta-tion and with natural mulch developed parti-cularly as a woman's task in some areas andthe plow and animal draft power have notbeen used.

This situation is changing, however, and the

introduction of suitable types of farm tools andmachinery is essential for the expansion of thecultivated area and an intensification of pro-duction. In forest regions, planting, hoeingand inter-cultivating will probably remain thebackbone of crop production. Programs ofimprovement in these areas should concentrateon better hand-operated implements and theintroduction of single-animal draft and harnesswith the appropriate tillage, planting and inter-cultivating implements.

In many parts of the region power mechaniz-ation is rapidly increasing, although it stilltouches only a small fraction of the Africanfarmers and is mainly confined to export crops.As elsewhere the number of 'tractors is increasingfaster than the, supporting services of operation,maintenance and repair and, consequently, manydifficulties arise. In other regions experiencehas shown that large-scale mechanization pro-grams in order to be effective require the simul-taneous provision of in-service training and theorganizing of maintenance and supply services.In Africa South of the Sahara a number oflarge-scah schemes for mechanize,d productionllave failed in the postwar period. As in alltropical regions, continuing research is neededto adapt to local conditions types of machinerywhich have often been evolved under temperateclimates. Although many such trials llave beencarried out in the region, there is a wide fieldfor such research, particularly on the effect ofmechanized cultivation on soil structure andfertility, and close co-operation is needed be-tween machinery stations and research stationsworking on soils.

The introduction of farm machinery amongpeasant farmers of low productivity and with-out access to credit facilities depends in thefirst instance on government a.id. There areconsiderable possibilities for the establishmentof farm-machinery pools and government hireservices, as are already being developed in anumber of areas.

Forestry Production

The paramount importance of adequate for-est cover for the conservation of basic soil andwater resources has already been emphasizedin discussing land utilization.. One of the chiefreasons -for the ruthlessness of forest destructionis that the tropical forest consists largely ofspecies of little or no known commercial value,so that its clearance for crop production is an

130

economic necessity which can be reduced onlyby enhancing the economic value of the forestitself. In order to attain this objective, agreat deal of attention is being devoted to im-provement of the silvicultural, logging and woodutilization aspects of tropical forestry.

Current techniques for improvement iii silvi-culture fall into four main groups : (i) the re-moval of the old stand by sta,ges and its re-placement by a more or less even-aged crop re-united from advance growth or from inducednatural regeneration; (ii) the inducement of de-sirable regeneration by selective fellings ; (iii) theenrichment of the stand by the artificial intro-duction of valuable species, including exoticsand (iv) clearance and plantation, where prob-lems of cost of clearing can be solved in waysthat simultaneously mitigate shortage of agri-cultural land and enhance local food crop pro-duction. The increased use of contact arbori-cides is greatly assisting the work of the foresterin this field, but the silviculture of the tropicalrain forest is still largely of an experimentalnature and has benefited little from the tradi-tional practices of the temperate regions.

Technical progress in logging and in timberutilization has been given particular attention,as a result of the development of export mar-kets for tropical hardoods, and substantial ca-pital has been invested in their developmentalong modern lines. The three fields of re-search in silviculture, logging, and timber util-ization are closely interdependent, but improve-ment in the utilization of an increasing numberof species of local tropical woods must neces-sarily come first. Progress has been made pos-sible by the development of markets for fibre andparticle board and for pulp and paper, whichopens up utilization possibilities for a wide rangeof titnbcr and offers opportunities for the maxi-mum use of the produce of the forest.

Local industrial development based upontropical woods is, however, still in its infancy.The further development of forest industries isparticularly dependent on investment in trans-port and other basic services, while anoth.erstumbling block is the shortage of adequatelytrained personnel at all levels.

Crop ProductionAfter a brief account of some of the principal

plant pests and diseases in the region., shortnotes follow on the work that has been done,mainly in plant breeding and improved practices,on some of the more important crops.

Plant Protection. Many plant pests and dis-eases still take a very heavy toll in the region,especially where extensive areas of cash crops.h.ave been established under virtual monocul-ture. A few examples are quoted below.

Locust infestation covers a larger area thanany other insect pest in the region. Althougheffective protection has been established byinternational action against the Red and Afri-can igigratory Locusts in Central and SouthernAfrica, the Desert Locust, which inhabits thearid and semiarid zones, causes serious damageby periodic outbreaks on a large scale andextending for vast distances. The control ofthe :Desert Locust depends in the first instanceon international action., in which FAO has takenthe initiative. Knowledga of the ecology ofthe species is, however, incomplete and FAOis initiating a survey to determine the require-ment for outbreaks in order to provide thebasis for the scientific prevention of plagues,rather than large-scale defensive measuresafter outbreaks have occurred.

Attacks by weaver birds on grain crops alsocause severe losses, especially in East and Cen-tral Africa, and no effective control measureshave yet been devised.

A recent study34 assembles some striking esti-mates of the damage caused by plant diseasesin certain areas. In 1947/48 about 46 millioncacao trees were estimated to be affected bySwollen Shoot disease in Ghana, where theannual loss from this disease was believed to beabout 80,000 tons, while Black Pod was esti-mated to reduce yields by another 25-40,000 tons.These losses were more than 10 percent of thepresent world crop. The eutting-out campaign,the only possible control measure against Swol-len Shoot, caused further dislocation. In thelast few years, however, good progress has beenmade in West Africa in the control of Black Podand Capsid by spraying.

It was also estimated that in 1948 at leasthalf the mature clove trees on Zanzibar Islandhad died from Sudden Death disease during theprevious 10-12 years. Diseases and pests ofcotton have caused severe losses in Uganda andgive rise to serious difficulties in its establish-ment in some other areas.

With many plant diseases the main line ofattack is through the development of disease-

34 G. Watts Padwiek, Losses Caused by Plant Dis-eases in the Colonies, Phytopathological Papers,No. 1, Commonwealth Mycological Institute, Sep-tember 1956.

131

resistant crop varieties. Work in this fieldwill be dealt with in the following notes on indi-vidual crops.

Local Food Crops. In spite of the concentra-tion of research and advisory services on exportcrops, there has been some increase since thewar in breeding work 011 the local food cropswhich form the greater part of the agriculturalproduction of th.e region.

IVIillets and sorghums are of particular im-portance in large arcas of Africa South of theSahara, as owing to their short growing seasonand low water requirements they are virtuallythe only crop that can be grown in time semiaridareas, where food supplies depend on a rapidutilization of available water following the briefannual rains. Work is being done on time pro-duction of varieties with even shorter growingseasons, and lower water requirements and com-prehensive breeding -work has been started inEast Africa to produce varieties with good yieldscombined with good storing qualities. Thereis scope for the further development of thesecrops in some areas where maize is at presentTrown under marginal conditions.

Generally speaking, more research and exper-imental work has been done on maize and ricethan on the other local food crops. Maizeyields are generally very low and there is greatscope for improvement through the introductionof better varieties, notably hybrids, thoughwork in Kenya has indicated that caution isneeded in adopting them. The introductionof hybrid maize in Rhodesia, and the Union ofSouth Africa has already had a notable effecton production ; in 1953/54 in Southern Rho-desia, for example, the average yield of Euro-pean crops of hybrid maize was 8.9 bags peracre, compared with 5.2 bags for open-pollinatedvarieties. Maize Rust (Puccinia polysora) hasspread very rapidly since its introduction in1949 and caused substantial losses, particularlyin Dahomey, French Togoland, Ghana, andNigeria, but many resistant varieties have re-cently been developed.

Although rice yields in the region are usuallylow, potential levels, both for mechanized andnonmechanized production, are high, especiallyon irrigated land in rotation with cash cropssuch as cotton. The introduction of irrigationin connection with the development of largeriver basins should provide scope for ami exten-sion of irrigated rice production, while rice isalso a suitable, crop for the low-lying swamp

land along the sea coast, of which considerableareas exist in West Africa. In some territories,such as Liberia and Sierra Leone, most of therice is of the upland variety which contributesto soil erosion and the destruction of forest re-sou.rces, and efforts are being mad.e to developswamp rice production.

Rust has caused considerable difficulties inwheat production in some parts of the region.Successful cultivation is mainly confined tohighland arcas in Kenya and some othe,r terri-tories and to those parts of South Africa whererainfall is adequate (chiefly the winter rainfallarea). Research is proceeding in Kenya intoRust-resistant varieties, but because of the con-tinuous mutation of the pathogen no perma-nently resistant strains have yet been found.

Cassava furnishes heavy yields even on ratherpoor soils and can be easily propagated bycuttings. Since it can be left in the groundfor two or three years and is immune from mostpests and diseases, it is particularly importantas a famine reserve. Selection work in EastAfrica Iras resulted in the development of va-r.ieties and strains resistant, and in some casesimmune, to Mosaic disease. In the Ivory Coastan excellent collection of some 130 varietieshas been formed and a hybridization programstarted.

Pulses can make an important contributionto protein intake. Some are grown throughoutthe region and they are also being introducedinto crop rotations, but little has been done toimprove methods of cultivation or the speciesOr varieties which are grown. In order to im-prove diets, there is also a great need to developthe production of green-leaf vegetables, legumesand some roots and fruit-vegetables, whichare especially rich in certain vitamins. Manyof these thrive in tropical regions, but at pres-ent they are mainly produced near large con-suming centers.

E xport Crops. Cotton, groundnuts, and to-bacco are the most important annual crops thatare mainly or partly exported. Most of thecotton comes from the tropical belt and is of theAmerican upland type (Cossypium hirsutunt).There are great potentialities for expansion inthe tropical belt, where large areas have suita-ble soil and climatic conditions, provided pestsand diseases can be economically controlled.A considerable amount of research has beencarried out, concentrated on the breeding ofhigh-yielding and disease-resistant varieties, well

132

adapted to the different producing areas, whichvary greatly in ecological conditions. Specialattention has also been given to problems ofsoil fertility and rotations, but the average yieldsof the smallholders who produce most of thecrop continue to be very low in most areas.

Groundnuts also are almost entirely cultivatedby small farmers. They are an important foodcrop, as well as being exported in large quanti-ties from some territories. Attempts to organ-ize large-scale mechanized production have notproved generally successful. Extensive mono-culture of groundnuts has led to serious erosionproblems in Senegal and experimental work inthat territory has therefore concentrated on cul-tivation methods and the development of rota-tions with millet.

Tobacco is mainly important as a cash cropon European estates in Central Africa, but smallquantities are widely grown by African farmersfor local consumption. Southern Rhodesia inparticular has carried out considerable researchand has a special extension service for tobaccogrowers.

Most of the important cash crops of the regionare tree crops, however, produced in the areasof abundant rainfall. Some of these have lentthemselves especially to plantation-scale pro-duction in certain areas ; they also have a sta-bilizing effect on the holding of the small pro-ducer and make all important contribution toerosion control.. Africa is the native home of all commercialspecies of coffee and offers favorable soil andclimatic conditions for the production of bothambica and robusta types, the latter 110W ac-counting for about three quarters of the region'sprod.uction, while other species, such as Collealiberica and Co gm dewevrei, var. excelsa, arealso grown to a limited extent. Much valuableresearch has been conducted with regard tobreeding, fertilizing, shade, irrigation, insectpests and diseases and also processing, butmany problems still remain. Production hasrecently increased very rapidl3r and there aregrea,t possibilities for further expansion, parti-cularly of robusta, as large tracts of virgin landare still available for new plantings and thereis also scope for increasing the yields of existingplantations.

In sharp contrast to coffee, the production ofcacao in tropical Africa has not increased signi-ficantly during the last 20 years in spite of aconsiderable expansion of the planted area.This is due mainly to Swollen Shoot disease,

particularly in Ghana, to other diseases andinsect pests and also to the ageing of manyplantations. Excellent research work has beencarried out and considerable progress has beenmade, particularly in the production of improvedvarieties through the use of new breeding mate-rial imported from the Western 'Hemisphere andin the control of insect pests and diseases. Aswith coffee, there are substantial possibilitiesfor the expansion of production, as large areasoffer favorable soil and climatic conditions. Atthe same time, considerable efforts are neededto rehabilitate old plantations.

The oil palm is native to extensive areas intropical West Africa and most of the oil palmproducts produced in the region are derivedfrom wild stands, to the gradual improvementof which much attention has been devoted.:Due to pioneer work in the Belgian Congo andlater in the Ivory Coast and Nigeria, valuableplanting material obtained through artificialpollination of selected palms (particularly bycrossing dura X pisifera), yielding fruit withhigher oil content, is now available in increasingquantities.

Considering the large areas of Africa South ofthe Sahara in which ecological conditions arefavorable, rubber has not had the expansionthat might be expected. Much research hasbeen done in Liberia by the Firestone Companyon control measures for various diseases attack-ing seedlings (root rot, Helminthosporium, etc.).A special breeding project aims at producingstrains resistant to the South American leafblight (Dothidelta ?Ida), in view of the dangerof the introduction of this disease, while somevery high-yielding varieties have also been de-veloped.

Good progress in banana cultivation practices,fertilizing, pest and disease control, and in thepacking and shipping of the fruit has been madeduring recent years in some areas. There couldbe considerable expansion of commercial plant-ings, particularly in the humid forest zone ofWest and Central Africa, where very large areaswith suitable climate and soil are available.

Citrus fruit can be grown throughout tropicalAfrica where moisture conditions are favorable,but the major centers of commercial productionare at present located in the more marginalareas of the tropics and particularly in the re-gions of subtropical climate, often near the cli-matic limits of the species, as in Southern Africa.While tangerines, grapefruit, and pomelos cangive rather good results in West and Central

133

Africa, sweet oranges do not generally reachcommercial standards in tropical humid areas,especially as regards color, sugar and acidcontent.

Many other fruits, such as pineapple, avocado,mango, papaw, guava, etc., can be grown inmost parts of the humid forest regions. Mostof the existing plantations are still managed ina very primitive way and the introduction ofimproved varieties and of better cultural tech-niques could considerably increase production.

Livestock

More than half the land surface of the Africancontinent carries a type of natural vegetationof which grass is an essential feature and thedominant component of the climax vegetation.Under present circumstances, livestock produc-tion is the only means of utilizing the extensivesemiarid areas of the region. Since most of thedomestic livestock is maintained under rangeconditions, the distribution of the main speciescontributing to the grass cover is a matter ofconsiderable economic importance in determin-ing optimal systems for range management.The FAO map, The Grass Cover ef Africa,is intended to be a contribution to this basicsubject. Following the classification of thegrass cover into 16 major floristic types, it ishoped that the knowledge already available ofthe management of the types of grass coveroccurring in Southern Rhodesia, the Union ofSouth Africa, Kenya, and certain other terri-tories may be extended to all the 16 majortypes and their many subtypes.

The main factors in grassland managementin Africa are, of course, duration of the grazingseason, intensity of stocking, controlled and rota-tional grazing, use of burning in relation tò man-agement and, in a few cases, the relation be-tween the rangeland and adjacent limited areasof cropland on which cultivated fodder cropsma,y be grown. The cultivation of sown pasturesand fodder crops is practiced only in limitedparts of the region where climatic conditions arefavorable or irrigation water is available.

Livestock is kept throughout the region, butits range is interrupted by areas of tsetse infesta-tion and by the zones of humid tropical forests,although in these some specially adapted breedsof low productivity have been evolved in partsof West Africa. There is a sharp distinctionbetween the highly developed stock farming inareas of European settlement, especially in the

Union of South Africa, East Africa, and partsof the Belgian. Congo, and the animal husband-ry of the indigenous population. European-owned livestock provides a disproportionatelylarge part of the output of meat and otherlivestock products, because of its superior pro-ductivity and because in many areas the Afri-can tends to regard cattle as a store of wealthrather than a productive unit.

The first European farming settlements werelargely based on livestock. The great progressmade over the past 50 years in European animalhusbandry has been made possible largely byveterinary research and animal disease control,established in response to a disastrous outbreakof rinderpest at the turn of the century. The'Veterinary Research Institute at Onderstepoortin the Union of South Africa was a pioneer inthis field, and afterwards laboratories wereestablished throughout the region. Livestock°Algiers were faced not only with the com-mon diseases of Europe but many otherswhose cause and treatment were unknown andwhich resulted in great losses for many yearsuntil suitable methods of control were developed.Efficient vaccines 110W exist for rinderpest,bovine pleuro-pneumonia, anthrax, black quar-ter, bluetongue, horse sickness, anaplasmosis,enterotoxemia in sheep, Rift Valley fever, rabies.heartwater, Newcastle disease and fowl pox.Widespread vaccination has very largely broughtrinderpest under control, though local out-breaks still occur. There are still great diseasehazards, however, notably those systemic in-fections transmitted by arthropod intermediatehosts, although latterly some of the protozoaldiseases have proved vulnerable to chemo-therapy. Tick- bornediseases are being broughtunder control by regular clipping or spraying,which is compulsory in some territories. Atten-tion is now being directed more to the wastingdiseases such as tuberculosis, to infertility dis-eases, mastitis and the whole field of parasiticinfestations. Among the diseases for whichcontrol measures have not yet been evolvedmay be listed sweating sickness in calves, lumpy-skin disease in. cattle and virus abortion insheep.

Apart from the 'availability of water supplies,however, the greatest single factor affectinglivestock is the tsetse fly, which is the vectorof the organism causing sleeping sickness inman. and " nagana " or trypanosomiasis incattle. The area of fly infestation runs roughlyin a broad belt across the middle of Africa,

134

depending on certain densities of vegetation,and excludes cattle from approximately half ofthe region. Over the last 30 years there havebeen important extensions o-f infestation, espe-cially in Central Africa. In spite of much re-search, there is still no generally effective con-trol method ; bush clearance, game extermina-tion and aerial spraying all have their advocates.Pro-salt, giving temporary immunity, has beenfound especially useful for the protection ofcattle moving along stock routes that lie acrossfly belts. The main European livestock areasare marginal to this infestation but containSOIlle areas which must be kept constantly undercontrol to avoid its spread.

European livestock farming has developedon the basis of relatively large units, which incertain areas are now fenced to allow for properrange management. Water supplies have beengenerally improved and particularly in the lastten years attention has been directed to soilconservation measures. There is a generaitendency towards mixed farming, where soiland rainfall conditions are suitable, stimulatedin part by research on fodder crop production.Pasture research is also being pursued through-out the region and has assisted improvementof pastures and the carrying capacity of therange, especially in the Union of South. Africa.

Much experience in breeding and upgradinghas been accumulated, mainly 011 the basis ofindividual experiment. Foundation stock of awide range of livestock has been imported, toestablish both pure-bred herds and herds basedon indigenous breeds35 upgraded by crossingwith sires, of imported stock. Areas adaptedfor the successful raising of exotic breeds arelimited to temperate and highland zones andthere is now general agreement that foi. themore severe conditions of open range a policyof selection and breeding improved indigenousstock should be followed. In many areas im-proved herds, based on native or crossbredstock, well adapted to local conditions, have.110W been established. Economic productionunder these rigorous conditions requires furtherstudy from the point of Vi.eW of energetics,however. Artificial insemination has madesome progress among Kenya dairy herds, butelsewhere tropical conditions and communica-tions often limit its application.

For an account of these breeds, see Types and_Breeds of African Cattle, FAO Agricultural StudyNo. 37, Rome, 1957.

European livestock husbandry is mainly di-rected towards beef production, though thedairy industry is also expanding in. some areas,as marketing difficulties are overcome, Whilesheep and goats axe kept by African herdsmenover the witole SalleTian region and in manyarid and semiarid are,as of lEast Africa, themost notable development has been in woolproduction by the Europea farmers in theUnion of South Africa,

Turning to African eattle busbandry, abroa,d division is .found throughout the regionbetween, nomadic or seminomadie cattle people

cultivators who are also livestock owners.Nomadism in its purest furia is seen among theFulani of West, Africa or the Masai of EastAfrica, Ivito maintain la,rge herds of cattle whoseproductivity is greatly limited by considerationsof prestige and religious observance, Apart:from actual :nontadism, transhumance is alsoextensively practiced and large, numbes ofcattle ilLigrato annually towards Lake Chad,for exanuple, during the dry season. The no-mads occupy tucas of lower rainfall and, mulerpresent limitations of water supply and livestockmanage,ment, theirs is probably the only meth-od of utilizing these arcas until fundamentalchangos are made which w(Adel permit moreeflieietit methods,

Nomad (and transhumance) livestock ownersare usually expert graziers and have evolveda system of management well adapted to difficultconditions. Tito improved control of animaldiseases, discussed above, and greater politicalstability, :fralowing Ein..opeatt occupation, have,however, permitted large increases in cattleutunbers, while feeding, management, and breed-ing techniques have not kept pace with the im-provements in the disease position. W:rhile

the,re is probably no severe overstocking in theopen savannahi baci semiarid regions, seriousmismanagement is occurring locally in someterritorie,s. In Southern .11-todesia, for example,mismanagement has led to such serious erosionthat legal measures have been instituted toprovide kw resettlement and reallocation ofgrazing grounds.

The improvement of African livestock pro-duction depends as mucli on economic incen-tives as on the better utilization of natural re-SOUITOS. Improved management practices, suchas enclosure, culling and castration, at presentrun contrary to established methods, while theidea of breeding for sale is still quite foreignto many livestock owners, particularly the

135

nomads. Education for the nomad presentsconsiderable difficulties atril in many ways thesesocieties are still virtually closed. to outsideiittluence. Nevertheless, they have iiiheritedvaluable stores of skill m,mitl experience, togetherwith a genuine feeling for the welfare of theirlivestock. In order to in crease productivity,nomadism and transhumance must be graduallytransformed imito a form of ranching by the de-velopment of water supplies and the establish-ment of rotational grazing. While the, carryingcapacity of tl:te range can certainly be increasedi IL this vay, time most urgent need, however,is not to increase the total head of stock butto render it considerably more productivo.

The integration of livestock with Africansettled farming is making only slow progress inmost parts of the region, but it is essential :forimprovements iii cultural practices and themaintenance of :fertility, while increased agri-cultural production depends in. some measureon the adoption of animal-drawu implements.

many areas ami initial 4irnulus has been givenby tito allocation of animals to selected farmersby the government, 1171tile these 1,1..e generallyfor draft and eventual slaughtering for beef,sniall_scale dairy production, based on cl ual-

purpose breeds, .k also mi the increase. Th edevelopment of a successful. type, of mixedfarming col:1W have ami impo.rtant effect on thenutritimi of peasant 'farmers. It also pro cidesa poiitt at which the as yet separate economiesof the, nomad and the cultivator may be joinedto their mutual b(1.vaittage, the latter stockinghis holding with cattle purchased from the for-mer or purchasing store cattle from him fora limited fattening, period prior to slaughter.

FisheriesThe rapid increase in fish production sitien the

War has been associated with technical achieve-ments in many different fields of catching andprocessing.36 There is a sharp distinction, how-ever, between the industries of Angola, timeUnion of South Africa, and South West Africaand those of the rest of -the region. In the for-mer group, development has been based on thetechniques of large-scale production ciad thefactory organization associated with reduction,

"The processing of fishery products is dOilit Withlucro, together with technical progress in productiwi.For agricultural products, improvementS in proces-sing are discussed under marl:eting, as they areclosely related to the activities of the, various mar-keting organizations in the rogion.

canning, and freezing. In the latter, whilethere has been some conspicuous developmentof Modern fishing methods and processing in-stallations, associated with specialized trade incertain products, the main technical problemsare those concerned with the improvement of'numerous sma,11 individual undertakings infishing, fish culture and a cottage-industry scaleof processing.

In Angola, the Union of South Africa, andSouth West Africa, the postwar composition ofthe fishing fleets shows an increasing proportionof larger-powered craft engaged in medium-range deep-water trawling and seining. In thepostwar period some 500 powered craft, havebeen introduced in Angola, while in the Unionof South Africa, and South West Africa thenumber of trawlers and seiners of 50-100 feetand over has increased by at least 200. Corre-sponding improvements in fishing gears andmethods have accompanied this expansion.

In the rest of the region improvement restslargely on better fishing methods in coastal andinland fisheries and the extension of opera-tions to exploit resources further offshore.Improved techniques in inland fisheries havebeen demonstrated with considerable successin the Belgian Congo, Uganda, and some otherareas through the promotion of pond culture,the strikingly effective use of nylon gillnets, themechanization of small craft and the introduc-tion of modern trawlers in lake fisheries. Inthe marine fisheries, the mechanization of localcraft and the introduction of superior craft incoastal waters has already made good progressin Ghana and Senegal, while the use of largercraft, e.g., trawlers, has been successful inFrench Equatorial Africa, French West Africa,Liberia, and Sierra' Leone.

In processing, the most outstanding advanc,,shave been in the development of fish meal ma-nufacture and canning. The number of reduc-tion plants and canneries has increased steadilyin Angola, the Union of South Africa, and SouthWest Africa, and modernization and refinementsof processing continue. The large number ofsmall fish-meal plants in Angola are to be gra-dually replaced by fewer plants of larger capa-city. On a lesser scale, canneries have beenestablished in French Equatorial Africa, FrenchWest Africa, and Sierra Leone. Freezing is ofvery small importance as yet and is confinedto specialized products for export and for verylimited local markets. It has been developedprincipally in the Union of South Africa, but

136

there are a number of small ventures elsewherewith good commercial prospects.

There has been little development so far oflocal research organization in support of theseactivities, with the conspicuous exception of the-Union of South Africa. In that country theFishery Industry Research Institute has beenparticularly active and was one of the firstin the world to produce edible fish flour witha high protein content. There has been littletechnical change in the processing of dried fishproducts and, in spite of their region-wide im-portance, there has been little systematic re-search in this field. Considerable wastage stilloccurs, due particularly to infestation but alsoto inefficiencies in preparation, handling, stor-age, and transport. The whole problem of thetreatment of fish products under tropical.conditions is one of great complexity involvingconsiderations of taste, appearance, and cost, thesubstitution of mechanical for natural processes,the diversification of products, standardizationand control measures, etc.

Technical progress in fisheries has also beenassisted by the growth of educational and re-search services in closely related fields, such asoceanography, biology, food technology, engi-neering, naval architecture, navigation, etc.

The Organization of AgriculturalResearch

Having outlined some of the main results ofagricultu.ral research in the preceding pages,it remains to discuss briefly the organization ofresearch services and, in particular, their post-war growth. There has been a rapid expansionof research facilities in the postwar years, buta wide field still remains to be covered, espe-cially in respect of local food crops, and bothfacilities and personnel are often inadequate.

There is a tendency to centralize the organi-zation of basic research on problems of wide ap-plication in the metropolitan countries and alsoon ami interterritorial basis. The British EastAfrican territories, the Federation of Rhodesiaand Nyasaland, and Nigeria, for example, havesince the war established central bodies respon-sible for basic agricultural research. Interter-ritorial institutes working on individual cropsor groups of crops are also a common featurein the region. In the British territories theEmpire Cotton Growing Corporation, establishedin 1921, 1,vas the earliest of these ; it opened anew main research station in Uganda in 1950.

Since the war interterritorial research instituteshave been set up in British West Africa for cacao,oil palrn, and rice, as well as for fisheries, try-panosomiasis, and social and economic research.In the French territories, the main interterrito-rial institutes are the Institut de recherches surles huiles et ofeagineux (IRHO), established in1942, and the Institut de recherches du coton etdes textiles exotiques (IRCT), which dates from1946. In the Portuguese territories the var-ious juntas established for the main exportcops conduct research at a number of stationsand substations.

In the Belgian Congo and Ruanda-Urundiagricultural research is carried out by the cen-tral Institut national pour l'aude agronomique duCongo beige (INEAC), which was set up in1933. There is a network of Stations d'adap-tation locale, each connected with a substationof INEAC and carrying out trials in local condi-tions, the synthesis of which is performed by theinstitute. By 1959 there will be 43 such stationsconcerned with variety trials and multiplication,experiments in fertilizer requirements, mechan-ization, livestock breeding, etc., directly aimedat their introduction among African farmers.

In most other territories the departments ofagriculture also carry out agricultural research,normally more of an applied nature. Generallythere is a number of substations in the differentagricultural zones which aim at gaining expe-rience with 1101V practices under local conditions,while departments of agriculture also operatesome stations concerned with individual crops.Most of these departmental research serviceshave been greatly expanded since the war. A

particularly fully developed organization is thatin the Union of South Africa, where researchhas recently been decentralized into six regionsand there are also specialized stations, of world-wide reputation, for veterinary, citrus, deciduousfruit, and tobacco research. In Liberia theDepartment of Agriculture's first research sta-tion was opened in 1953, in conjunction withthe United States International Co-operationAdministration.

In addition, some agricultural research is alsocarried out at universities with agriculturalfaculties, including those in the Belgian Congo,the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland,French West Africa, Ghana, Nigeria, Uganda,and the -Union of South Africa. Several ofthese universities and faculties date from thepostwar period.

An important postwar influence has been a

137

trend towards greater regional co-operation inresearch. This has been mainly under the aegisof the Commission for Technical Co-operationin Africa South of the Sahara (CCTA) and itsScientific Council (CSA), through such bodiesas the Inter-African Bureau for Soils and RuralEconomy (BIS), the Inter-African Bureau forEpizootic Diseases (IBED), etc., which providefor the exchange of information and the organ-ization of technical meetings. It is probablethat international co-operation in the exchangeof information and the establishment of prior-ities for research could usefully be extendedstill further. Much data of value, gathered inthe course of routine duties by local techniciansstill remains unpublished and thus unavailableto workers in other areas.

Training and Education

Research and other government services forfarmers are severely hampered by the lack oftrained personnel. Since the war there hasbeen SOMO increase in local training facilitiesfor agricultural technicians at the universitylevel and for auxiliary personnel for the staffingof government services. Some schools and or-ganized courses for the training of primary agri-cultural producers have also been established.

-University colleges with agricultural facultiesoffering training up to the degree level are listedabove. Normally they offer a general coursein agriculture without the possibility of spe-cialization. Their annual output of graduatesis likely to be very small for some time to come,partly because of the limited numbers graduat-ing from secondary schools but also because ofthe lack of appreciation for a career in agricul-ture.

Secondary agricultural schools training auxi-liary personnel for junior positions in govern-ment services for agriculture now exist in nearlyevery territory. They generally offer classroominstruction and practical work on a school farm,sometimes completed or preceded by an ap-prenticeship period at one or more agriculturalstations. Only a very limited number of thesecourses include specialized instruction in exten-sion methods. The duration of training variesfrom' about six months to three years andthe 'general education required for enrolmentfrom six to nine years. The annual enrolmentdepends on the personnel requirements of thedepartments of agriculture.

In some territories courses are available at

the university level for future farmers, thoughthese are mainly for Europeans in East and'Central Africa. Farm training institutes andagricultural schools have also been set up inmany territories to train farmers, often in con-nection with " Master Farmer " or similarschemes. They generally offer up to two years'training and emphasize practical work. Only alimited number have been successha, becausetoo often the social and land tenure structureprevents the graduates from satisfactorily ap-plying the knowledge they have gained. Thepercentage of future primary agricultural pro-ducers that benefit from this tra,ining is alsovery small. It would seem of considerable im-portance to investigate the possibilities of in-troducing systems of vocational teaching inagriculture which are better adapte,d to the needsand the social pattern of the peasant community,in order to reach a wider range of the rural po-pulation.. SOMO elementary and secondaryschools also include courses in rural scienceand many elementary schools haVe school gardenprograms.

In Africa South of the Sahara the educationof women is an additional special problem, thesolution of which is basic to improvements inlevels of living. Departments of agricultureshould be concerned in this, because of theimportance of women as agricultural producers,while nutrition education and h011IC CC011.0111iCSshould also be included in training programs.

Improved training facilities are also badlyneeded in forestry for personnel at all levels,from the forest worker, who at present is gen-erally an unskilled, temporary laborer with noincentive for seeking regular employment inforestry, to the professional forest officer withuniversity training. Liberia has recently de-veloped a forestry faculty at university leveland in other areas increasing numbers of stu-dents are being sent to universities abroad.The demand for a vast force of foresters, rangers,guards, and workers, with essentially practicalknowledge of forest protection, regeneration,maintenance, and the use of modern equipment,is to some extent being satisfied by an increasein local training centers.

Extension Services

The agricultural departments are generallyresponsible for extension work, which is carriedout by their field services, consisting of a net-work of agricultural stations with agricultural

138

officers in charge. These officers are assistedby agricultural assistants and overseers, cover-ing the teuitory more or less densely. Theagricultural stations and substations are usedfor the multiplication of seeds, livestock breed-ing, and local experimentation, Many of theagricultural assistants are also in charge ofnurseries from which the African farmer mayobtain improved planting material free ofcharge or by paying a token price ; this activityforms an important part of farm improvementschemes in many territories.

Field services of the agricultural departmentsin many territories now employ substantialstaff, with varying levels of technical training.A considerable proportion of the personnel is,however, often absorbed by duties such as themultiplication and distribution of seed and seed-lings, livestock regulatory duties, the collectionof statistical data, the implementation of set-tlement schemes, or the actual establishmentand sometimes maintenance during the earlyyears of tree crop plantations. The personnelavailable for actual agricultural extension workamong the African cultivators is therefore limit-ed. 'I7he number of farm families served byone local agent performing extension dutiesvaries from 2,500 to 10,000 or more. This degreeof coverage is unlikely to have much effect inareas where the high percentage of illiteracyand also the low density of population rendermass methods less effective.

In some territories local agricultural officersand their assistants report directly to the localadministrative officers instead of to the agri-cultural department or university, which prob-ably does not have a favorable influence onthe effectiveness of extension -work. In a fewareas, such as the Western Region of Nigeria,an effort is now being made to establish anagricultural extension service with purely edu-cational functions and a density of one fieldagent to about 1,000 farm families. Extensionwork is also carried out in a few territories bySOMC of the larger research institutes. Com-munity development services have been estab-lished in some areas, though this term maycover projects with widely different terms ofreference, not all of them including agriculturalprojects. Too often there is also a lack ofco-ordination between community developmentservices and the extension -work of agriculturaldepartments. Community development pro-grams offer particularly effective channels forthe spread of home economics imito rural areas,

including education in family nutrition, childcare and training, health and sanitation, andthe general improvement of living conditions.

The training of extension personnel is gen-erally concentrated on agricultural subjectmatter and only a few institutes offer some in-struction in actual extension methods. At-tempts to teach the African farmer improvedmethods are complicated by traditional a.tti-tudes, social custom a,nd the nature of tribalorganization, which create a resistance to change.It is evident th.at extension methods are boundto fail if they do not take these fa,ctors intoaccount and special training is necessary forthis purpose.

The application by the African farmer of the'results of research has lagged far behind theprogress of the research itself and this gap maywell become wider unless greater emphasis isplaced on extension work in the future. Thefield services of agricultural departments havebeen greatly expanded in the postwar period,but a further strengthening of these servicesand of their extension activities seems essentialif the benefits are to be reaped of the researchwork which has been carried out.

THE CHANGING INSTITUTIONALFRAMEWORK

In putting into practice the technical im-provements outlined above many obstacles anddeficiencies have to be faced in the institutionalframework of agriculture. The following sec-tion of this chapter discusses the main postwarprogress that has occurred in the adjustment ofland tenure systems, in the supply of agricul-tural credit, in the organization of co-operativesand in marketing, including the many schemesaiming at the reduction of fluctuations in pro-ducer prices.

Land Tenure

Traditional systems of tribal or lineage own-ership of land still persist in some measure inall parts of the region, though in many areasthey have been greatly modified as a result ofsocial and economic pressures. T.he essentialfeature of these systems is that membership ofthe tribe or group confers rights of cultivationand the right to the fruits of cultivation, whileownership consists of occupation by the grouprather than title to specific boundaries. Suchsystems depend on a static society and the use

139

of land for subsistence, any surplus productionbeing for the common use in ceremonies andfeasts or to support the chief and elders. Theyare also often obstacles to the introduction ofsoil conservation measures and other improvedpractices.

In areas where production for the markethas been highly developed there has been strongeconomic pressure for changes in these systems.Social influences have included the spread ofeducation and increased 'nobility of the popu-lation, the latter creating classes of strangersdesiring access to tribal land but with no ticsof allegiance to the chief. Where such develop-ments are occurring, custoMary systems of landtenure are in a transitional stage ami are gen-erally tending to evolve towards an individuali-zation of rights.

Changes have usually been in response tothese social and economic pressures and "'inchmore rarely as a result of deliberate officialpolicy. Governments have generally attempt-ed to assist and systematize such spontaneouschanges rather than to initiate them. In thepast, attempts by governments to regulate landholding systems llave been a frequent cause offriction. In parts of East, Central, and SouthernAfrica an additional pressure on traditionaltenure systems has been caused by Europeansettlement.

Traditional systems of land tenure are ahighly specialized and complex subject of study,to which considerable attention has been devot-ed in many areas. In the present review,there is space only for a brief examination ofa few examples of the main types of chango thatare taking place in these systems.37

Southern Rhodesia and the Union of SouthAfrica provide important examples of the Na-tive Reserve system. In Southern Rhodesia,some 49 percent of the total land area is alien-ated, while much of the remainder is adminis-tered as an African Reserve under the NativeLand. Husbandry Act of 1951. This is primarilya resettlement scheme to rehabilitate and .protectland from misuse and erosion and improve stand-ards of production, but it also aims at indivi-dualizing customary tenures by making provi-sion for the registration of the land rights ofindividual owners. Control is maintained over

37 For a recent full account of land policies andof modifications in indigenous tenures, see LordHalley, An African Survey, _Revised 1956, London,1957, pp. 685-815.

fragmentation and alienation and the aggrega-tion of uneconomic holdings into larger unitsis encouraged. No sale is allowed which wouldreduce the holding below a standard area andpurchase may be made only by those who alreadypossess farming rights. No individual mayacquire a holding larger than three times thestandard area.

In the Union of South Africa about 89 percentof the land is alienated. A sharp division existsbetween European settlement areas and the Na-tive Reserves, neither party being able to holdland in area delimited for the other. Most ofthe land in the Native Reserves is still heldunder customary tenure. The Tomlinson Com-mission has recently made a thorough investi-gation of the situation in the Native Reservesand among its many recommendations was aproposal that land should be gradually sold toindividual farmers, to whom title deeds wouldbe issued, " subject to the condition that suchlands and rights are used to good purpose. " 38

Land tenure problems have received consid-erable emphasis in East Africa, particularlythrough the investigations of the recent RoyalCommission.. This Commission also recommend-ed that, with certain safeguards, policy " shouldaun at the individualization of land ownershipand mobility in the transfer of land which,without ignoring existing property rights, willenable access to latid for economic use. " 39

In Kenya there are clearly demarcated Euro-pean areari and African Reserves. The evolu-tion of many tribes is towards individual tenure,and traditional systems are already muchweakened. Tribal tenure of restricted areaswith especially favorable climatic conditions hasalso led to much fragmentation of holdingswith increasing pressure of population. Underthe Swynnerton Plan 40 surveys andconsolidation of fragmented holdings have beencarried out, especially in the Kikuyu area. Theaim is to establish economic farming units ona family basis with a registered title of ownership,owners being free to sell land (to other Africans)and to mortgage their holdings. Enclosure ofarable and grazing ground is extending to other

38 Stonnzary of the Report of the Commission forthe Socio-Economic Development of ¿he Banta Areaswithin the U nion of South Africa, U. G. 01/1955Pretoria, 1955, p. 195.

" East Africa 1?oyal Commission 1953 29j5 Report,Cmd. 9475, H. M. Stationery Office, London, 1955,p. 428.

40 A Plan to Intensify ¿he Development' of AfricanAgriculture in Kenya, Nairobi, 1954.

140

tribes from the Kipsigi, a cattle tribe who inthe past 30 years have evolved imito settledfarmers with enclosed fields.

Provision of individual title, cannot be mimadoeffective without a land survey and the provi-sion of machinery for title registration, as underthe Swynnerton Plan. Such measures are par-ticularly necessary in Tanganyika, where manydifferent kinds of tenure exist and their evolu-tion is by no means uniform. As a result ofthe development of coffee production among theChagga in the Kilimanjaro district, individualproperty has developed side by side with thetraditional systems and outright sale of latidrights is practiced, though normally restrict-ed to fellow tribesinen. There is a virtual ab-sence of written records of African land trans:actions. Leasing of laud is rare, though thelending of land for the production of annual cropsoccurs in some areas. Unofficial payment inrespect of use of land by strangers is sometimesmade but a formal landlord/tenant relation is-found only on the large estates west of LakeVictoria.

In 1905, government action created the mailosystem of latid tenure in parts of Uganda, un-der which large aseas were allotted to the Kingof Buganda and to chiefs in the belief that an-cient rights and privileges were being confirmedin permanent form. In fact, these rights werethereby separated from the political functionsof the then officeholders, on whom they werethus conferred in perpetuity, creating a landedaristocracy that did not exist before. The ten-ancy rights of the peasant holders are perman-ent and inheritable, so long as they are exercised,a,nd the tenant can only be evicted by a courtorder, while rents are fixed by law in Buganda.Thus the rights of owners and tenants arefirmly defined and established, but stresses a,rearising with the economic changes following theintensive development of cash crops. The pro-gressive peasant is faced with difficulties, sinceif he wishes to develop his holding he cannotmortgage any part of it to obtain capital .and,if he leaves, all his improvements, includinghis house, revert to the landlord, although histree crops are subject to compensation. As aresult of fixed tenures, few mailo estates areat the free disposal of their owners for improve-ment or sale. Fixed tenures also raise prob-lems of soil fertility in an aren which was for-merly cultivated by extensive rotatory agri-culture with long periods of bush-fallowing.

In West Africa the spread of tree crop pro-

duction has caused changes in tenure systems.In Ghana the customary system, which WaSdirected towards food production, has beenprofoundly modified or has even disappearedin some areas. There has been a great increasein commercial transactions in land in responseto increasing land values of cacao farms andconstant litigation occurs over the rights ofowners and occupants aud, especially,over bound-aries and ownership. The remedy is probablyin a universal system of registration, accompa-nied by a cadastral survey.

Similar economic changes have influencedcustomary tenure in French West Africa, thoughto a smaller extent. Two classes of rights arerecognized : full ownership by immatricuktion,which subjects property to French law, andthe customary tenure systems. Immatricyda-am" is a legal registration of title and oficialpolicy has been to encourage the de,velopmentof individual ownership. At the same timecustomary rights in land are fully protectedby a decrea of 20 May 1955. The trend istowards the legalization of such transforma tionsas occur, but there has been so far a more limite,dimpact on traditional systems than in Ghana.The development of cash crops has providedan incentive towards individualization in FrenchGuinea and the Ivory Coast, while in the ground-nut-producing areas of Senegal a class of rent-paying tenants has arisen.

In the Belgian Congo emphasis is laid onimproving the efficiency of Affican agricultureand increasing productivity, rather than onthe establishment of individual proprietors,though policy is very flexible and the lattereventuality is not excluded.. In the paysannalsthe social advantages of group land tenure aremaintained, it being held that individual OW11-ership would not give any greater securitythan the right of each member of the tribe to apiece of land according to his needs. This rightis inalienable, so long as it is exercised, and theexploitation of such allocations of land is oftenenarely individual. There is thus a strengthen-ing of the communal element and the traditionalsystem is adapted towards a form Of group pro-duc'Lion, which, however, requires close adminis-trative arid technical supervision.

Other forms of group production have alsobee,n tried, with varying success, in differentparts 6f the region. An interesting example isprovided by the " partnership schemes " spon-sored by the Western Region of Nigeria Prouuc-tion Development Board, which supplies finance,

141

technical advice, and equipment in partnershipwith either a co-operative or a local community,the members of which make over their land for50 years. The larger plantation schemes ofthis board and similar organizations in otherterritories are of interest from the point ofview of land tenure, in that they represent at-tempts to secure the economic advantages ofplantation-scale production without the alien-ation of hindi to private concerns.

The above are some examples of recent de-velopments in the evolution of customary landtenures. While these examples are rather bias-ed towards the Mitish territories, for which.information on land tenure is particularlyabundant, it appears that the general trend inthe region is towards individual holdings towhich the owner has a clear legal title. Africancommunities are very largely in a transition-al stage between subsistence and commercialagriculture and legal ni easures are primarilydirected towards protecting them dtiring thisperiod of change. Sorne governments have madeconSiderable efforts to avoid a dangerously rapiddisintegration of the tribal land systern, in orderto prevent large tracts of land from being takenup by a few wealthy individuals as a result ofthe change-over to private ownership.

The establishment of unrestricted freeholdsmight ha-ve serious consequences if thesesafeguards are not preserved. In some areas ithas led to subdivision and fragmentation ofholdings. In particular, the lleW peasant pro-prietors are exposed to risks of unwise commer-cial transactions, in which their indebtednesswould be increased or the land pledged on usu-rious terms. The final result might well bethat smallholdings passed into the hands ofmoneylenders and speculators, creating a 11CW'class df landlords without any of the social obli-gations of tribal ownership, as well as a landlessproletariat. Thus the East Africa Royal Com-mission recommended that indebtedness andloss of land should be avoided by restricting themortgaging of land and the recovery uf debtthrough the sale Of land, together with measuresto limit the accumulation of large holdings.

Agricultural CreditThe above considerations emphasize the im-

portance of the establishment of sources ofcredit, to which the small farmer may haveaccess on reasonable terms, as a parallel meas-ure with the individualization of land tenures.

The savings of the average small .African farmerare very limited and he generally has little orno surplus to use for the improvement of hisfarm or for the introduction of better techniques.Furthermore, any savings that he is able toacquire will often be used for a variety of otherpurposes in preference to agricultural improve-ment.

Very little detailed information is available,however, on the supply of agricultural creditin Africa South of the Sahara, though institu-tional credit facilities for European farmers arefairly well documented. Land and AgriculturalBanks, generally provlding long-term hiansthe security of a mortgage, as well as shorter-term credit for specific improvements, have longbeen established in Kenya, the Federation ofRhodesia and Nyasaland, a,nd the Union ofSouth Africa, for example. In the latter countrythe Land and Agricultural Bank had loans of93.0 Million pounds outstanding at the end of1950, of which 68 million pounds Were channeledthrough co-operatives. In the Belgian Congothe Société de eréait au colonat el A l'industrieliad loans of more than 1,100 million Belgianfrancs outstanding in 1956, of which about onequarter was for European farmers and a furtherlarge proportion for graduates from farm train-ing schools. European farmers in the regionalso generally have access to private banks forloan capital.

A major difficulty in the provision of agricul-tural credit to African farmers is that, exceptin the few areas -where tenures have alreadybeen fully individualized, they are unable tooffer land as security. On the other hand, itshould not be assumed that the individualiza-tion of land holding will be the complete solu-tion of the problem. As was emphasized aboveconsiderable government initiative is requiredto ensure that the development of land ownership(loes not give rise to indiscriminate pledgingof land and to the widespread rural indebtednesswhich characterizes some other underdevelopedareas.

In order to obtain short-term credit to tidethem. over until their crops are sold, manyfarmers are obliged to pledge their crops in ad-vance to local dealers, often at very unfavorablerates. Detailed information is not available onthe volume or conditions of this type of credit,but it appears to be of considerable importancein arcas where cash crops have been developed,as, for instance, in Ghana, -where a large volumeof seasonal credit is made available to cacao

142

prodncers by merchants and licensed buyingagents.

Facilities for the provision of institutionalcredit to African farmers have been establishedor expanded in a number of territories since thewar. \Vhile few details are available of theiroperations, it appears that they generally reachonly a limited number of farmers and that themany problems involved in the supply of creditin the region have not yet been satisfactorilysolved. A considerable volume of credit hasalso been made available in some ten;itoriesthrough marketing and other co-operative so-cieties. Such sources of credit will be dealtwith below in the general discussion of the devel-opment of co-operatives, but here it may bementioned that they appear to be mainly con-fined to arcas where cash crops have already at-tained a relatively high degree of development.

A form of credit which is quite widespread inAfrica South df the Sahara is the provision bygovernments of credit in kind such as improvedseeds, livestock, farm implements, or the Con-struction of dwellings, particularly in connectionwith land settlement schemes, though this isnot always on a repayment basis. Services suchas land clearing and plowing are also sometimesprovided free of charge or are not paid for untilafter the harvest has been sold. This creditin kind can be regarded as a rather primitiveform of supervised credit.

There would appear to be much scope inAfrica South of the Sahara for the experimentalintroduction of systems of supervised credit,such as have been developed in some LatinAmerican countries since the war, as well asfor a further development of co-operativecredit. Under a supervised credit scheme thefarmer, instead of being a mere borrower, isbrought under a binad educational programaiming at improving his farming methods andtime standard of living of his family and the pro-vision of credit is thus combined with agricul-tural extension.

Co-operatives

The communal nature of African tribal so-ciety would seem favorable ground for time de-velopment of co-operatives. In fact, however,this is true in only a qualified way, for whileco-operatives liare multiplied and prosperedin many parts of the region, this is attributableto many other factors besides traditional pat-terns of communal or tribal organization.

The collapse in world prices in the 1930's sti-mulated interest in co-operatives as a methodof standardizing quality, steadying prices, andimproving marketing systems. These first stir-rings of interest in co-operatives, though scat-tered and unconnected, resulted 'before the warin the passage of special co-operative legisla-tion in Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Sierra Leone,Tanganyika, and Zanzibar. In the French ter-ritories there was a preference for what werecalled Sociétés indigènes de prévoyance, to whichthe governments of the various territories gavemuch active support and encouragement. Inthe Belgian Congo a co-operative law, modeledoil European lines, was enacted as early as 1921,but it (lid not apply to African farmers, whilein the Portuguese territories the developmentof co-operatives was not undertaken before theW a r .

Under the special export marketing arrange-ments set up in many territories during and af-ter the war, the co-operatives already in existencewere accorded a recognized place, which provedmost fortunate for their progress. In the post-war years the strong export demand for mostagricultural products has further encouraged theirgrowth and there has been a widespread devel-opment of co-operative organizations amongAfrican farmers.

Co-operatives, particularly the marketing andcredit types, are now most numerous in theBritish territories and in Ghana. With a mem-bership of 50,000 in Ghana and the WesternRegion of Nigeria their annual turnover ofcacao exceeds 50,000 tons, valued at 15 milliondollars or more. In Kenya, Tanganyika, andUganda, coffee marketed by co-operatives nowexceeds 26,000 tons. Its gross annual value isapproximately 25 million dollars, while themembership of the co-operatives in whose in-terests this large volume of business is transact-ed numbers at least 180,000. In Uganda morethan 20000 tons of cotton are marketed annuallyby co-operatives with 90000 members, w4ichorganize marketing and operate nine ginneries.More than 12,000 tons of maize, rice, and te-bacco were handled by the Tanganyika co-oper-ative marketing societies ami unions in 1956.

Postwar developments have shown .the im-portance of linking marketing with credit andin addition to their marketing activities, these,co-operatives usually extend credit facilities.In Ghana and Nigeria cacao farmers receiveannual loan facilities of nearly 3 million dollars.In Uganda the credit afforded by marketing

143

co-operatives is all short-term, amounting to alittle over 100,000 dollars in 1954. Most of theBritish territories have also developed purelycreciit co-operatives, but returns do not distin.-guish the proportion of their activities that wasfor agricultural purposes. Other types of so-ciety now to be found in fairly large numbersinclude consumers, craftsmen, bulk purchasing,and school co-operatives.

This progress has been accompanied by anevolution of the attitude of local administra-tions, which now actively support the develop-ment of co-operatives. During the last decadeall the British territories have established orexpanded departments or services to promoteand guide co-operative acfivities and to admin-ister the co-operative laws now in force.

In the French territories, policy regarding theestablishment of co-operatives has been verydifferent. In most territories Sociétés indigènesde prévoyance, de secours et de préts mutuels agri-coles were first established. These had a com-pulsory membership and were so much a mech-anism uf government controlled by officials,that they can scarcely be looked upon as th.eforerunners of voluntary co-operatives. Afterthe war they were -widely criticized and theoutcome was the passage of a law in 1947 de-creeing their replacement by agricultural co-oper-atives. In the following year an Inspecter ofCo-operative Societies was appointed, but theestablishment of co-operatives has come aboutonly gradually.

The law of 1947 was replaced in 1955 by legis-lation designed to be the charter of co-oper-atives in the French overseas territories. It isnow generally appreciated that a good basiclaw is the primary requisite for sound develop-ment of co-operatives. A second and equallyimportant requisite is specialized education, forsupervisory officials, for the employees of co-oper-atives, for the members and for the public atlarge, in the principles and practice of. co-oper-ation. The British authorities have alreadyprovided many training facilities and Frenchterritories are beginning to follow suit.

It is only in recent years that there has beenany systematic approach to the development ofco-operatives in the Belgian Congo and Ruanda-Uruncli. Before the war there were t-wo orthree fairly large African marketing associa-tions, but owing to the opposition of Europeantraders and farmers they did not seek authori-zation under the law of 1921. The first legalrecognition of African co-operatives was provid-

ed in 1049, with the passage of a decree pro-viding that there should be specialized staffto help in the formulation of by-laws prior toregistration, supervision in regard to manage-ment (principally accounts) and interest-free orlow-interest loans from government sources.This law was completely revised ami replaced.in 1956 by a very comprehensive new decree.In addition the authorities have been given spe-cific responsibility to ensure the sound develop-ment of co-operatives and a Co-operative Sec-tion Avas established in 1949.

Three years after the decree of 1949 therewere 40 African co-operatives registered there-under and there has been further steady pro-gress, in line With a program of developmentwhich the Co-operative Section announced in1950. It is intended that the improvement ofproduction under the system of paysan,nats in-digènes should be closely linked with the d.evel-opment of co-operatives. While no plans havebeen .made to open a central or .higher schoolsolely devoted to the teaching of co-operation,courses and lectures have been arranged in thesenior elementary schools and in training centersrun for demonstrators and administrative andagricultural assistants. There is, however, stillneed for greater training facilitieS and additionalmeasures are in hand.

In the Portuguese territories the approach toco-operatives is so far only tentative and ex-periments are in progress to show whether suchundertakings can be successfully carried out.

Mention must also be made of the importanceof' co-operative organizations among Europeanfarmers in the region. In the 'Union. of SouthAfrica, for example, each European farmer be-longs on the average to two co-operatives. Serv-ices provided on a co-operative basis includeseasonal credit, the handling of produce, thesupply of farm requisites, crop insurance againsthail and fire damage, repairs to farm machinery,assistance for soil conservation, the building ofstorage dams, milk recording, and a fodderbank.

Although there are great variations in therates of co-operative growth in different partsof Africa, South of the Sahara, there is a COMM011realization that co-operation in this region needsthe assistance of specially trained personnel.This would appear to be a field in which the in-ternational exchange of experience, both with-in the region and with other parts of the worldwith comparable conditions, is particularly val-

144

uable and FAO proposes to hold a Co-operativeTraining Center in Africa in 1959 in collabo-ration with ILO and CCTA.

Marketing Organization and Price Policies

In Africa South of the Sahara, where smallfarmers supply the bulk of agricultural produc-tion and where produce often has to be trans-ported great distances, marketing is a field inwhich considerable government initiative hasbeen necessary. The provision of marketingfacilities is also an essential step in assistingthe transition from subsistence farming to pro-duction for sale. As discussed above, much hasbeen done through the stimulation of the co-oper-ative moveme,nt. In addition, a large numberof public or semipublic organizations has beenestablished, especially since the war, for thecontrol of marketing of specific crops. Guar-anteed producer prices are now widespread.The quality of export crops has been improvedby the introduction of grading systems andbetter methods of pro cessing, while marketinghas also benefited front time considerable post-war improvements in transport facilities.

The marketing of the major export productsis now highly organized and relatively efficientin most parts of the region. In some casesthe concentration of government assistance onexports has led to a comparative n.eglect of themarketing of products for domestic consumptionand it is probably in this sector that the majoreffort is needed in the future.

Organized marketing of time main export cropsis most fully developed in the British WestAfrican territories and in Ghana. The WestAfrican. Central Cocoa, Board was set up in 1939and replaced in 1942 by time West African Pro-duce Control Board, covering palm oil andgroundnuts as well as cacao, and since the dis-solution of the latter in 1947, statutory Market-ing Boards covering various export productshave been constituted in the individual terri-tories. They have buying and selling mono-polies, fix producer prices and buying allowances,paying a fixed price throughout the season,and control grading and all aspects of marketing.Firms engaged in the produce trade, includingan increasing number of co-operatives and smallAfrican enterprises, are licensed by the boardsto operate as their buying agents, competingwithin the maximum buying allowance. Sim-ilar boards, with varying powers, control time

marketing of some of the principal exports inmost of the other British territories. In Easta.nd Central Africa the marketing of maize andsome other local food products is also some-times controlled.

There is also considerable government in-tervention in marketing in the Union of SouthAfrica, dating from the early 1930's. 'Presentpowers are based On the Marketing Act of 1937,under which boards have been established for al-most all the main products of European farmers,for local consumption as well as export, withthe major exception of wool, Ivhich is sold bypublic auction. The boards, on which producers'representatives are in the majority, can imposelevies to pay for the administration of the mar-keting scheme and sometimes for special pur-poses such as stabllization funds, promotionalactivities, and research. Some are the sole buyerand seller and SOITle fix producer and otherprices, subject to government approval.

In the Belgian territories there are controlledmarkets for coffee and cotton. Four 0//icesgrade the coffee crop and issue export licensesunder a system begun in 1939 ; export sales arenow made by two co-operatives, which includethe majority of the producers. For cotton therehave long been special funds for price stabiliza-tion and other benefits to producers ; the sys-tem was established in its present form in 1947,with the constitution of the Cdisse de ré.servecotonnière and the introduction of the principlethat the crop remains the property of the pro-ducer until it is actually exported, the processingfirms to which it is delivered working on hisbehalf at rates fixed by the government. These:b.rms are grouped into a single sales organiza-tion to export the crop.

Government marketing activities in the Frenchterritories consist mainly of quality control andprice stabilization, which will be described below.In February 1958, however, a single sales organ-ization was set up in Dakar (French WestAfrica) for the export of the groundnut cropsof Senegal and Sudan.

For the Portuguese territories there areJuntas de Esportapo for most of the importantexport crops, with headquarters in Lisbon andbranches in the producing territories. Theycontrol all sales for export, issuing licenses andprescribing grades.

Price Policies. As in other regions, whilethere were some attempts to stabilize producerprices before the war, the full development of

145

such policies has occurred in the postwar period,of which they have been one of the major fea-tures. Most price stabilization schemes inAfrica South of the Sahara are based on reservefunds accumulated through special taxe,s orotherwise withholding from producers partof the proceeds of export sales during periodsof high world prices.

Some of the statutory Marketing Boards inBritish territories were able to build up verylarge reserves when world prices vere high, byfixing producer prices substantially below thelevel of export receipts. Many of these reservesbecame so large that, in addition to the sumsset aside, for the support of producer prices inperiods of low world prices, substantial surpluseshave also been allocated to research and develop-ment. 41 In most territories, producers' re-ceipts have been further reduced by export taxes,usually on a sliding scale, rising very sharplywhen export prices are high.

The price policies of these boards have beenfrequently criticized. It is charged, for in-stance, that prices (notably for cacao in Ghanaand Nigeria) have been fixed too low to stimul-ate adequate increases in production and that,even if a self-balancing stabilization schememight have been justifiable, the syphoning offof large sums for development has amountedto severely discriminatory taxation of produc-ers. On the other hand it is claimed thatdisastrous inflation has been prevented in econ-omies dominated by ORO or only a few exportcrops and that the essentially windfall natureof the inflated export receipts of the boom yearsjustified their use for development expenditure,while other forms of taxation were difficult toadminister. Among the producers themselves,criticism has naturally tended to abate sincemany of the boards have had to begin pricesupport operations, drawing on their reservesto maintain or only slightly reduce producer

" The largest stabilization fund is that of theGhana Cocoa Marketing Board, amounting to 51 mil-lion pounds ; very substantial sums have also beenset aside or spent by this board for development.In Nigeria the policy of the four former boards forindividual commodities was to allocate) 70 percentof their an.nual surpluses to stabilization funds. In1954, when they were converted into regional boards,their combined reserves totaled 75.5 million pounds.The Cotton Price Assistance Fund in Uganda wasallowed to rise to 20 million pounds, after whichfurther surpluses were transferred to the AfricanDevelopment Fund. The Coffee -Price AssistanceFund in the same territory stood at over 15 millionpounds in 1954.

prices ilL the face of sharp falls on export mar-kets.

The opposite difficulties arising from the over-stimulation of production by high prices havealso been encountered in some parts of the region,especially with regard to maize, for which highguaranteed prices have been paid in most ofthe British territories in. Central and East Africa.tat(1 also in the -Union of South Africa, Com-bined with favorable weather, this has led tounexpected surpluses, which, partly because ofinsufficient storage aeeommodation, have had tobe hurriedly exported, citen at a heavy lossin drawing,s from stabilization funds and gov-ernment subsidies. In smne territories pro-ducer prices for maize have now been reducedor guarantees removed.

In the Union of South Africa guaranteed!prices, sometimes backed up by stabilizationfunds drawn fimo a special levy, are paid mainlyfor commodities such as maize and livestockproducts, vhich are primarily for domestic con-sumption. Wry rapid increases in the pro-duction of groundnuts and sunflower seed havebeen stimulated by inean.s of attractive guaran-teed prices. A recent development is the de-control of farin and retail prices for beef, inami effort to achieve a better balance of supplyand demand.

Various forms of price policy are employedin the French territorios for different commod-ities. There are maximum and minimum pricesfOr groundnuts, a guaranteed price for allpalm oil imported into Franco, fixed producenprices :for cotton and a guaranteed price forsisal, the latter two prices 'being maintained:front part of the proceeds of a tax on importsof textile manufactures into France. In ad.-dition, Caisses de stabilisation des prix have beenset up since -.I f)55 for the major export crops ofindividual territories, replacing any territorialprice stabilization echemos that previouslyc:x.isted. They are financed by export taxesand other levies from which stabilization :fundsare accumulated. As they were instituted at atime when most world prices Were already fallingand 'reme therefore immediately called on tosupport producer prices, they have also receiv-ed loans from the Fonds 'national de régularisa-tion des °ours des produits d' outre-mer. Someof these loans are now beginning to be paid backfollowing recent improvements in the prices ofcertain products.

In the Belgian Congo the " potential " pricethat can be paid to cotton producers is caleulat-

140

ed at the beginning of each season, by estimat-ing the price the crop is likely to realize ouworld markets and deducting processing andmarketing charges and, based on this, a provi-sional advance to producers is then announced.If, when all the crop has been exported, theprice realized is higher timan expected, moneyis paid imito tire Ca4sse de Hserve cotonniè.re OFdistributed to producers as a bonus ; in timecontrary case, drawings are made from the re-serves of the (-Jaime. This fund amounted to1,500 million Belgian francs in :1056 ; as in theBritish territories, part has been spent on devel-opment in time producing arcas. The 0flice desca/de indigènes Ruanda- Urundi aleo admin-isters a price stabilization fund.

The Improvement of Quality. Even in themore developed areas the quality of export pro-duce is a question of tire utmost, importance, asis indicated by the measures taken in the Unionof South Africa, where systems of grading andfacilities sueh as those for the precooling of cit-rus and other fruit are among the best in theNvorEd, Strict regulations are also laid down byassociations of European producers in otherterritories. In most parto of Africa South ofthe Salara, however, time improvement of qual-ity presents special problems, as in many casesthe products of small farmers ha-ve to competeon world markets with those of highly organizedlargc-scale entermises, with modern proce,ssingfacilities, in other regions,

Improvements in quality begin, of course, attimo production stage, with the use of betterplanting material, disease control, and othermeasures described earlier in this chapter. Bet-ter processing and the organization of grading,and control systems, the other two phases ofquality improvement, will be briefly discussed

PZI1111 oil is a good example of the importanceof processing methods, as it re,quires rapid andefficient, extraction to limit the rise in free fattyacid content which ehictly determines its qual-ity, while the Oil extraction ratos of primitiveand modern methods also differ considerably.In Nigeria, where, in contrast, to its chief COM-potitors on the world market, the bulk of exportsis derived front fruit collected from, naturalstands, substantial improvements in both thequality and quantity of production have beenmade through the introduction of mechanicalhand-presses and of small power-operated ex-traction plants_known as " pioneer oil mills. "

Similar, if less radical, improvements havetaken place in the processing of many othercommodities, in large part through the activi-ties of co-operatives and of the various market-ing organizations described above, which havedevoted considerable sums to the investiga-tion and introduction of more efficient methods.Notable progress has been made with the qualityof groundnuts through the introduction of asimple hand-decorticating machine.

Some processing that was formerly performedin the importing country IlOW takes place lo-cally, as in French_ West Africa, where in 195644 percent (oil equivalent) of groundnut ex-ports was in the form of oil, compared with anegligible proportion before the war.

Effective systems of inspection and gradingenable the payment of premiums for high-quality produce. Only in this way can pro-ducers be encouraged to take more care in pro-cessing or to invest in the necessary equipment.Exports of the major commodities are now sub-ject to official inspection in all territories, thoughin some cases this is only at the port and fraudstill appears to be widespread. In the Frenchterritories, produce control servi ces have beenset up under the postwar development plans.In recent years premiums for quality have beenintroduced or sharply increased in many terri-tories and some striking results have been achiev-ed. In Nigeria, for instance, the introductionof improved processing equipment was linkedwith the establishment in 1950 of a new " SpecialGrade " of pahn oil, for which a substantialpremium was paid by the Marketing Board.As a result the proportion of this grade in totalpurchases rose from 5 percent in 1950 to 53percent in 1953 and 73 percent in 1957.

Other Marketing Developments. Most of thedevelopments discussed above are concernedwith export products. In many territories rath-er little is known about the internal move-ment of food supplies, though surveys are nowin progress in a few areas. While it is probablytrue that in most of the region less attentionhas been paid to the marketing of products fordomestic consumption, it is also a fact thatexport marketing is better documented andmore is being done than is generally known insuch spheres as the construction of urban retailand wholesale markets and the hnprovement ofconditions under which food is sold. Manyco-operatives h.andle the marketing of localfood products, while there are now good

147

municipal markets in most of tho largertowns.

Even this brief sketch of marketing develop-ments cannot be concluded without some refer-ence to the provision of transport facilities,which is generally the main factor in openingup new areas for the production of cash cropsand is an essential part of th.c transition froma subsistence to a market economy. Productsoften have to be transported very long distancesfrom the producing area to the port or urbancenter and transport charges constitute a parti-cularly high proportion of the cost of both im-ports and exports in many territories. North-ern Rhodesia, is a striking example of theinfluence of transport ; agricultural productionis mainly concentrated in the vicinity of thesingle railway line and only products of highunit value, such as tobacco, can profitably beexported, because of the long haul to the sea.Transport deficiencies are also the cause ofmany shorter-term marketing preblems, suchas the excessive accumulation in the earlier post-war years of the well-known " pyramids " ofstored groundnuts at the railhead in NorthernNigeria.

The grea,t increase in the volume of trade inthe postwar period has severely taxed transportfacilities. At the same time, very substantialimprovements have been made in these facilities.Transport has re,ceived the major share of in-vestment under the postwar development plans,while it is significant that a large part of thedevelopment expenditure undertaken by theagricultural marketing organizations has beenfor roads in producing areas. There has beena very great increase in the number of 'bicyclesand small vehicles used in the movement oflocal food supplies ; often the purchase of atruck is one of the first relatively large invest-ments made by the more prosperous farmers.A further interesting development is the use ofair transport for meat in French EquatorialAfrica.

In many parts of the region the existing trans-port ne'twork is based primarily on the require-ments for moving export products and, withrising local demand, will need to be more adapt-ed to the complex needs of the movement offood supplies for internal consumption. In thisconnection it is of interest that a recent investi-gation in the Northern Region of Nigeria con-cluded that the posto,var building of feeder roadshad led to a sharp increase in the movement offoodstuffs and greatly reduced the danger of

localized shortages ; it had also resulted inhigher prices being offered to producers in themore remote areas, making it worthwhile forthem to produce surpluses for sale.42

AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENTPLANS

Earlier parts of this chapter have demonstrat-ed the large part that governments have playedin agricultural development in the postwarperiod. This section is mainly concerned withthe financial aspects of agricultural developmentand with the ways in which government devel-opment plans and projects have been organized.Long-term capital development plans have beenan important postwar influence in almost allparts of Africa South of the Sahara, as in theunderdeveloped regions generally, and the maincharacteristics of such plans will first be discus-sed. While these overall plans are usually theprincipal channel for public investment in agri-cultural, fisheries, and forestry development,other public and semipublic investment outsidethe development plans is also important insome area,s. This type of investment and alsothe rather limited data on private agriculturalinvestment will then be reviewed. After anaccount of recent trends and prospects for thesupply of development capital, some aspectsof the agricultural, fisheries, and forestry policiesexecuted through the programs of public andsemipublic investment will be briefly examined.

Over-all Plans of Economic Development

Since the war agriculture, fisheries, and for-estry have benefited, both directly and also asa result of improvements in transport and otherbasic services, from a marked expansion inpublic expenditure in th.e general field of eco-nomic and social development. Some govern-ments had accumulated reserves that they hadbeen unable to spend during the war and, be-cause of the generally higher world prices foragricultural and other raw material exportsduring the postwar period, most have also beenable, to set aside larger sums from currentrevenue for development expenditure. Loans andgrants from the metropolitan countries forthe development of their dependent territorieshave substantially increased, reflecting the wider

42 Movement of Local Foodstugs, Northern RegionNigeria, Ministry of Agriculture, Kaduna, 1958,p. 29.

148

recognition of the need to assist in raisinglevels of living in less developed areas and inproviding a sound economic and social founda-tion for accelerated political evolution. Espe-cially in the earlier postwar years, it was alsobelieved that African agriculture could make avery significant contribution to overcoming theworld food shortage and also the currency prob-lems of the metropolitan countries, givensufficient capital and technical aid. In mostof the region agriculture can mobilize relativelylittle private capital while, although it wasenvisaged that private sources would eventuallyprovide much. of the finance needed in othersectors, it was recognized that substantial publicinvestment in transport, power and similar basicservices was an essential prerequisite.

Once governments had accepted this broade,rrole in capital development, and in particularfollowing the widespread experience of planningduring the war, it vas natural that their invest-ment cante to be planned for longer than thenormal annual budgetary period. Thus long-term capital development plans were preparedsoon after the war in the, individual Belgian andBritish territories, in th.e French and Portu-guese territories within the framework of gen-eral plans including the metropolitan countryas well, and in Liberia. In the Union of SouthAfrica the large public investment in varioussectors has not been brought together into anoverall plan, though a Natural Resources De-velopment Council was established for theplanning and promotion of the development ofnatural resources.

As compared with those in other regions, themain feature of these development plans, apartfrom the part played by the metropolitan gov-ernments in financing them, has been the verysubstantial proportion of total funds devotedto the basic services, particularly transport,needed to lay the foundations of future agri-cultural and industrial progress and also tosocial projects, chiefly hospitals, schools, andhousing. In some -underdeveloped areas else-where there is very strong competition for de-velopment funds between agriculture and in-dustry and, in a number o-f cases, concentrationon rapid industrialization has caused a compa-rative neglect of agriculture. In Africa, incontrast, agriculture has usually receivedthe largest share of funds after infrastructureand social projects. Recently, in revising plansand preparing new ones, a somewhat increasedproportion has generally been allocated to the

productive sector, including agriculture, whilestill maintaining the main emphasis on basicservices. This trend has OCCIlfred not onlyas some of the most urgent gaps in the in/ra-structure gradually camc to be filled but alsopartly because of the need to increase productiv-ity 80 as to provide revenue to meet the debtand other recurrent charges on completed pro-jects of basic and social services.

The Organization of Development Plonniny,Most of the initial development plans were forten years, but it was found that so .long a plan-ning peiod necessitated frequent modificationsas a result of changing circumstances and un.foreseen difficulties. Costs rose more rapidlythan had been expected, recurrent chargesoil development inojeets also increased and weresometimos found to be more than a territorywould be able to tincet out of future revenue.These revenue's, often derived largely from ex-port taxes, themselves changed sharply withfluctuations in th.e world inices of primaryeommodities and it WaS not possible to predictfor such a long period how much eoulcl be madeavail able foi development expenditure. Changesin programs atul, delays in their implementa-tion were also caused, particularly at the be-ginning of the period under review, by theshortage of technicians and capital equipmentand by inadequate investigation and preparationof projects. In most cases, .therefore, with theprincipal exception of the Belgian territories,the original ten-year plans WOre soon modifiedo cover a shorter period, generally of four tosix years.

Not all of the development plans relate onlyto capital expenditure proper, a few includingthe additional recuiTent charges arising 'fromnew projects or even covering all f:.oritis of gov-ernment expenditure. Some of the earlier.plans wore little more than collections of pro-jects de,signed to spend a certain amount ofmoney. As experience has been gained andmore adequate surveys carried out, they haveincreasingly shown a moro or less integratedapproach to the economy as a whole. In Ni-geria, for example, the latest Federal ami Re-gional plans closely follow the recommendationsof the mission from the International Bank forReconstruction and Development 'which con-ducted a detailed economic survey of the terri-tory. While plans ha ve to be based on 'whatcan be done within the limits of the financiadand other resources expected to be available,

.49

most are now formulated in the light of somesuch broad assessment of needs, though statis-tical data are generally inadequate :for themto be based on detailed estimates of consuniption requirements. The plans for the Belgianand the French territories and also the Swyn-nerton Plan for African agriculture in Kenyaestablished actual targets ami forecasts for themain agricultural commodities.

Ad hoc, bodies, such as the Agricultural Pro-ductivity Committee in -Uganda, have sometimesbeen established to prepare individual plans orparts of them, but usually there is now a con-tinuing central body to co-ordinate both theirformulation and execution. Most often this isin one of the existing ministries, aided by aninterministerial committee, though the Frenchterritorios have separate planning ministries.The planning organization of tito dependentterritories is generally supplemented in time

metropolitan country, where plans are review.ed for the allocation of financial assistance.In addition, as will be discussed later, in manyof the British territories specialized semipublieboards .for agricultural and industrial develop-ment also play a part in planning, though theiractivities are usually outside the developmentplan proper.

,Development Plan Finance. There are strik-ing variations in the pattern of developmentplan finance in the, different parts of the region(Table III-19). In the Belgian Congo the plan isfinanced mainly from loans guaranteed by theBelgian Government,43 and the contribution ofbudget surpluses has so far been relatively small.'Pite financing of the plan foi! Ruanda-Urundiis through an interest-free loan from the metro-polita,a government, to be repaid over 25 years.In addition, about 1,700 million francs are tobe spent on health services, education and ruraldevelopment in time two territories by tito Fondsdu bien-être indigène, which, is financed by aninitial grant from Belgium and the proceeds ofthe colonial lottery. The original plan for theBelgian Congo devoted as xnuch. as 50 pereeatof total expenditure to transport, about 30percent to social services and 5.4 percent toagriculture, fisheries, and forestry, 17i.th an-other 1 percent for storage and preservation ofproducts ; in the latest revision the share of

Raised primarily in Belgium, but also in Swit-zerland, in the territory itself and from the :Inter-national Bank and the United States internationalCo-operation Administration.

TABLE 111-19. SOURCES OP FINANCE OF CURRENT DEVELOPMENT PLANS

SOuBcES : La situation economique du Congo beige et du Ruanda-Uricadi en 1956, Ministkre des colonies, Brussels, 1957 ; The ColonialTerritories 19,5C-1957, Cnind. 195, II. M. Stationery Office, London, 1957 ; High Commission Territories, EconomicDevelopment and Social Services, Cloud. 9580, London, H. M. Stationery Office, 1955 ; The Federation of Rlwdesia andNyasalaml Newsletter, Federal Information _Department, London ; Bulletin liebdonzadaire de statist lime, No. 511, INSEE,Paris, 22 February 1958 ; Bulletin, mensuel ele statistique d'Outre -Mer, Paris, July-October 1957 ; Wayne Chatfield Taylor,The Firestone Operations in Liberia, National Planning Association, Washington, I). C., 1956 ; Situation &onomiquedes colonies portugaises, Notes et etudes doeumentaires No. 1964, Paris, 1954.

1 Reserves and current revenue. 'Includes ex-penditure from Fomis the bien-are irulighte. 313asutoland, Bechuanalandand Swaziland 1945-60, Kenya 1954-57, Northern Rhodesia 1954-59, Nyasaland 1957-61, asid Sierra Leone 1956-59. Excludesexpenditure on central and joint schemes (e. g., programs of East Africa Hig,h Coinmission). 4 Federal government plan only ;excludes Kariba Scheme. 5 Including Reunion ; excluding time " general " section of the plan, which is financed entirely byFrance. 6 Total credits granted to individual territories under first asid second plans up to 30 June 1957 (Reunion, 31 Decem-ber 1956). 7 Loans from the Caisse centralc de la France, d'Outre- Mar, which is financed by metropolitan grants and loans.

Includes metropolitan contribution to capital of Banco de Fomento de Ultramar.

agriculture, fisheries, and forestry is raisedslightly and in the new plan now in preparationthere is to be a further increase. In the smallerand more densely populated territory of Ruanda-Urundi, transport receives about 24 percent andagriculture, fisheries, and forestry about 7 per-cent of total expenditure.

In the British territories, grants for develop-ment have been provided by the United King-dom government under a series of Colonial De-velopment and Welfare Acts and, apart fromprovision for research and other central andjoint schemes, are allocated to individual terri-tories. While tisis assistance is only a fractionof the total development plan expenditure insome of the richer territories, which are ableto use substantial loeal resources (reserves andcurrent revenue) and loan funds, it is almostthe only source of finance for the plans of someof the smaller ones. Loan capital for the de-velopment plans is mostly raised in London,where colonial loans have the status of trusteestock, though there is a growing tendency for

150

some loans to be wholly or partially issued lo-cally, and recently part, of the territories' sterlingbalances has sometimes been invested in thisway. In some territories loans from the re-serves of the statutory Marketing Boards havebeen of considerable importance, while therehave also been loans, mainly for the transportsector, from United States government sourcesand from the International Bank. The Feder-ation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland has obtainedloans from mining interests and private banksand also hopes to raise a loan on the UnitedStates market in 1958. On the expenditureside, the emphasis varies greatly among thedifferent British territories. In some territoriesa very large proportion of funds is allocated toagriculture, as much as 26 percent in Kenyaand 19 percent in Tanganyka under the currentplans. In general, transport (though less pre-dominantly than elsewhere), and social se,rvices,particularly education, are the major categories.There has been the same tendency for a gradualincrease in the share of agriculture.

COUNTRY OR GROUP Planningperiod Currency unit

T otalplannedex:pen-diture

pisloeiti traon-

grants

Loans from=fl-govern-

mentOo

therlans

Localresources 1

... Percentage of total planned expenditure ...Thousand

Belgian Congo 1949-58 million B. fcs. 249.5 3 ... ...Thousand

Ruanda-Urundi 1949-58 million B. fcs. 25.1 6 94

BritiSh territories 1955-60 4 Million i 450 9 36 55

Federation of Rhodesia andNyasaland 4 1957-01 Million i 84 49 51

Southern Rhodesia 1957-61 Million L 37 ...Ghana 1951-57 Million i 120 2 25 73

ThousandFrench territories 5 6 million Fr. fcs. ,401 65 734 1

Liberia. 1951-59 Million U.S. $ 73 ... , ...Portuguese territorios . . . . 1953-58 ,Million contos 85.8 3 51 46

In the French territories there is greater uni-formity in the financing of the plans of the indi-vidual territories, which are included in anoverall plan for the French -Union as a whole.Metropolitan grants, allocated annually, arechanneled through the Fonds d'investissementpour le (Mveloppement économique et social(FIDES). They finance all of the general sec-tion of the plan, a section -which is for the be-nefit of the metropolitan country as well asthe territories themselves," and a very largepart of the territorial sections. The proportionof the finance of the territorial sections forwhich the territories themselves are responsiblehas been successively reduced, while in practicetheir contributions to FIDES have not comefrom local resources but abnost entirely throughlow-interest loans from the Caisse centrale de laFrance d'Outre-Mer. This body is itself financ-ed by metropolitan grants and loans, so thatactually metropolitan assistance in one form oranother has covered nearly the whole, develop-ment plan expenditure.

The increasing emphasis on agricultural pro-duction has been paaticularly marked in thesuccessive plans for the French territories.Under the territorial sections of the first plan,about 50 percent of investment went to trans-port, 20 percent to social projects, and 12 per-cent to agriculture and water control. Up tothe end of 1956, 43 percent of authorized expend-iture in the second plan was for transport, 8percent for social projects and as much as 34percent for agriculture and water control. Athird four-year plan is now in preparation andthat recently proposed for the ivory Coastdevotes about 33 percent to agriculture, fisher-ies, and forestry, or more than the 30 percenteach for transport and social services. Thefinancing of the Ivory Coast's plan is likely toshow some new features, as it is proposed tofind half the funds from current revenue, whileloan funds may also be raised to provide forthe very large investment envisaged.

The loan finance for Liberia's developmentplan is from the United States Export-ImportBank and there is also considerable assistancefrom the United States International Co-opera-tion Administration. Current revenue is themain source of funds, however, about 20 percentbein.g set aside for development each year.

"Total expenditure under the general section ofthe first and second plans is about 90,000 millionfrancs.

151

The original program devoted 27 percent ofexpenditure to health projects, 22 percent tobasic education, 14 percent to road transport(with a further 20 percent for other engineeringand construction projects) and 13 percent toagricultural development.

Loans from the Portuguese government coverthe entire development plan expenditure in theCape Verde Islands and Portuguese Guinea,approximately 65 percent in Mozambique, 60percent in Sao Tomé and Principe and 40 per-cent in Angola. Apart from 160,000 contosgranted by Portugal towards the capital of theBanco de Fomento de Ultramar for Angola andMozambique, the remainder comes from localresources. Transport is the major itera ofexpenditure, receivin.g 35 percent of the totalfor the Portuguese territories as a whole, butthe share of agriculture, at 31 percent, is verylittle less.

Other Public and Semipublic Investmentin Agricultural Development

Although there is no formal development planin the 'Union of South Africa," public invest-ment has been very substantial, especially intransport and po wer. Loans for these se,ctorshave been obtained from the International 13ankfor Reconstruction and Development, whilepublic loan issues have also attracted muchforeign private capital. Agriculture is financedpredominantly from private savings, but herealso there has been considerable public expend-iture, mainly for research, extension, educa-tion, conservation works and irrigation. Thegovernment-financed Fisheries Development Cor-poration has made some direct investment aswell as advancing loan capital.

Elsewhere, public and semipublic investmentin agriculture, fisheries, and forestry outsidethe overall development plans is probably ofmost importan.ce in the British territories.Very large projects aro sometimes budgetedseparately from the development plan, anexample affecting agriculture being the KaribaScheme in the Federation of Rhodesia:and Ny-asaland. The Colonial Development Corporation

"A development plan for the African Areas wasrecently proposed by the Tomlinson Commission.Of a total expenditure of 104 million pounds over aten-year period, about 36 percent was to be foragricultural development, including soil reclamationand afforestation. While endorsing the generalaims of this plan, the government was, however,unwilling to budget for so long a period.

was established in 1948 to undertake, eitherdirectly, in partnership with or through loansto private enterprise or territorial governments,projects of agricultural or industrial productionwhich would eventually be commercially remu-nerative. Long-term Treasury loans are ad-vanced for individual projects up to a maximumoutstanding at any one time of 100 millionpounds." Of a total of 50.5 million poundsapproved for 42 continuing projects in Africa,South of the Sahara by the end of 1956, 12million pounds was for 12 agricultural, fisheries,or forestry projects (10 of them mana,geddirectly or through subsidiary companies) andanother 2.7 million pounds for 5 projects forthe processing of agricultural products.47 Some-what similar functions are carried out in indi-vidual territories by such bodies as the Came-roo:us Development Corporation, the GhanaAgricultural :Development Corporation, the Re-gional Production Development Boards in Ni-geria, the Tanganyika Agricultural Corporation,and the Uganda Development Corporation.Their financing is mainly from loans and grantsfrom the government and sometimes also fromthe reserves of the statutory Marketing Boards.In addition to loans and grants to these bodiesand to governments, the Marketing Boarclshave themselves directly financed agriculturaldevelopment projects and research in someterritories.

Similarly, in the Belgian territories the mar-keting organizations for coffee and cotton havemade substantial investments in roads and otherdevelopment projects for the benefit of producers.In the French tenitories also, the Caisses destabilisation des prix are empowered to investin this way. A number of semipublic bodies(sociétés d'économie mixte) are partly financedby loans from the Caisse centrale de la Fra,nced'Outre-Mer, referred to above. Those concern-ed with the production and export of agricul-tural commodities include the Compagnie géné-rale des oléagineux tropicaux and the Compagniefrancaise pour le développement des fibres. Inthe Portuguese territories, the semipublic juntasfor the marketing of the main agricultural ex-ports also provide funds for research and pro-duction and marketing improvements.

46 Recently raised to 150 million pounds, of whichup to 130 million may be borrowed from the Treas-ury.

47 Colonial Development Corporation, Report andAccounts for 1956, H. M. Stationery Office, London,1957.

152

Private Agricultural Investment

Private investment in agriculture is relativelylimited in Africa South of the Sahara, exceptin the areas where there are substantial num-bers of European farmers or large plantationsoperated by expatriate firms. The need toaugment the small African farmer's capacityto invest in improved methods is one of theMajor problems of the financing of agriculturaldevelopment. Government attempts to over-come it through the supply of credit were de-scribed earlier in this chapter. In some areas,especially the British territories in West Africa,much of what might have been saved by privateindividuals from enhanced export proceeds fortheir crops has been transferred, through exporttaxes and the policies of the Marketing Boards,into public and semipublic saving.

While estimates of the private capital invest-ed in African farming are limited to a fewstudies of small areas, eVell for European enter-prises the available data are complete only forthe Union of South Africa, where, however, thegreat majority of European farmers in AfricaSouth of the Sahara are concentrated. Netannual capital formation in European farmingin the Union of South Africa is now at a rate,in real terms, substantially higher than beforethe war, though there has recently been somedecline from earlier high levels. Most of theincreased investment has come from larger netincomes in agriculture, including price supportsfor some commodities. Government loansthrough credit institutions and under the SoilConservation Act have also increased and morecapital originating in other industries is now'being invested in agriculture. In recent yearsthe share of the agricultural industry in totalgross capital formation has averaged above13 percent.

Little is known about the quantity of capi-tal invested in the large plantations that area feature of some parts of the region. In theBelgian Congo the total investment in Europeanplantations is estimated at 8,700 million francsin 1953." The total investment of UnitedStates private capital in Liberia (apparentlyexcluding the very substantial investment intanker fleets) was estimated to be more than50 million dollars in 1956 and other foreign

4e d'estimation du capital investi an Congobeige," Bulletin de la Banque centrale du Congobeige et du Ruanda-Urundi, August 1955, p. 296.

investment .about 7-10 million dollars; 49 mostof this was in Firestone and a few smaller plan-tations of rubber and other tree crops.

Trends in the Supply of Capital forAgricultural Development

While some details are available of annualpublic expenditure on agriculture alone, it ismore useful to examine trends in overall devel-opment expenditure, since agriculture's shareof th.e total reflects not only the available supplyof capital but also the changes in emphasisthat h.ave occurred between the different sectorsof the economy.

United lKingdom grants were substantiallyincreased under the Colonial Development andWelfare Acts of 1050 and 1955. Credits grantedannually to the individual French territoriesfrom FIDES rose sharply in 1052 but they ha-vesince returned approximately to the level ofearlier years ;50 the reduction in 1053 was at-tributed to the transition between the first andsecond plans, but the high level of 1952 hasnot so far been regained.

It appears that the supply of loan capital,which is especially important in the 'BelgianCongo and in many of the British territories,ni ay now be dwindling. In the postwar period,the first colonial loans were permitted on the:London market in 1948 and the total rOSC veryrapidly up to 1950. A decline was to be e,xpect-ed once pent-up demand liad been satisfied,but since 1953 there have been further falls inthe total raised annually,5' probably because ofhigh interest rates and a tighter money supply-.As has already been mentioned, the Federationof Rhodesia and Nyasaland has found it neces-sary to seek a loan On the United States mark.et.Partly, however, the decline in loans raised inLondon may have been offset by the recentincrease in loans issued in th.e territories them-selves.

The part of development finan.ce most liableto fluctuation is that provided from the tel.Ti-tories' own current revenues. This has been,together with reserves accumulated from therevenue of previous years, the main source in

4.°Wayne Chatfield Taylor, g.'he Firestone Opera-tions in Liberia, National Planning Association,Washington, D. C., 1956, p. 16.

Bulletin mensuel de statistique d'ontre-mer, Paris,1947-57.

51 The Colonial Territories, 1-1.M. Stationery Office,London, 1947-48 to 1956-57.

153

many British territories and in Angola and Li-beria. With the high export prices of the Ko-rean boom years, government revenues weregenerally buoyant and it wa,s possible to revisemany of the development plans upwards, thoughin some cases this did little more that) meetincreased costs. In the last few years, on theother hand, prices of a nunfber of importantAfrican exports have been falling and changesin revenue expectations have more often causeddownward revisions in the development plans,as in the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasalamifor example, following the recent sharp declinein the piice of copper.

Thus there are signs of the emergence of ashortage of capital such as could not be saidto have existed in th.e earlier part of the post-war period, when it was generally possible toobtain funds for the execution of all projectsfor which equipment and personnel were avail-able and which were considered feasible in thelight of the expected burden which debt repay-ments and other recurrent ch.arges would placeon future revenues. At that time the shortageof equipment and technicians were the chieflimiting factors in most territories and largesums of m.oney were sometimes wasted on ina-dequately prepared projects. The present rela-tive shortage of capital is also accentuatedby the fact that many more projects are nowready for execution. This situation indicatesthe need for closer attention to priorities indevelopment planning, which may already havebeen partly reflected in the tendency notedabove to increase the sha,re of development fundsallocated to the directly productive sector.

The future prospects for capital supplies foragricultural and general development in AfricaSouth of the Sahara are difficult to assess.Most territories will continu.e for some time tohave lower revenues than during the boomperiod, so that not only will there be less capitalfrom this source for new projects but also lessmoney will be available to meet the debt andother recurrent charges on projects alreadycompleted. It is probable that the consequentincreased demand for loan capital will be onlypartly offset by the greater availability of suchfunds locally. The International Bank has sofar played little part in financing agriculturaldevelopment in the region, its loans havinggone mainly to the more developed territories,almost entirely for transport and power. Asfor private capital, there has recently been atendency for some European enterprises produc-

in.g rubber, tea, etc., to seek to transfer part oftheir interests from the Far East to Africa.The -Union of South Africa, however, hithertothe major importer of foreign private capital inthe region, has recently eXperienced a small netoutflow of funds. Western Germany remainsthe main potential source of capital, public andprivate, that has so far been relatively untapped.The Western German Government is a majorcontributor to the investment of 580 milliondollars over the next five years planned by theEuropean Economic Community in the over-seas territories of member countries (mainly inthe French . territories), but it is not yet knownhow much of this will be available for agriculture.

Agricultural Development Policies andProjects

Government activities in numerous fields,such, as agricultural research, education, exten-sion, soil conservation, irrigation, price stabi-lization, and the organization of marketing andother agricultural institutions, have alreadybeen described in earlier parts of this chapter.Except for price stabilization, which is largelya postwar development, these have been theprincipal government activities in connectionwith agriculture both in the prewar period andin more recent years. Some of the main policyaims pursued through these activities includethe promotion of particular cash crops, increas-ed production of food for dom.estic consumption,the introduction of mixed farming ami the di-versification of production. In some cases al-most all available resources, from research,education and extension to the supply of credit,have had to be concentrated on the combating,of a single problem of particular urgency, suchas soil erosion in some parts of Central Africaor Swollen Shoot disease of cacao in Ghana.

A full review of agricultural policies in AfricaSouth of the Sahara is not possible here. It wouldprobably reveal mainly the considerable increasein the scale and scope of government interven-tion since the war. Two specific aspects of post-war policies are, however, of special interest.One is the evolution of agricultural price policies,which, because of its close link with the market-ing organizations in the region, was treated inan earlier section of this chapter. The other,which remains to be discussed, concerns thegeneral approach to relatively large-scale pro-jects of agricultural production.

154

Large-Scale Projects of Agricultura' Production.Before the war most government-sponsored proj-ects for agricultural production were chieflyexperimental in purpose an.d almost the onlylarge-scale enterprises were the privately-ownedplantations. The scheme for the irrigationof the inland Niger delta in French Sudan,which was begun in this period, remains, how-ever, the largest irrigation project in operationin Africa South of the Sahara. Following someschemes initiated earlier, the Office du Niger-was set up in 1932, with the eventual aim ofirrigating nearly one million hectares to settlea population of some 300,000. Progress hasbeen much slower than expected and by 1955/563,236 families were established on an irrigatedarea of 44,500 hectares. About 45,000 tons ofrice (paddy) and some cotton were producedat varying levels of mechanization, yields andincomes being considerably higher than in therest of the territory. Financing has, since1952/53, been entirely by 'France, through the" general " section of the development plan.52

In the early postwar years the belief wassomewhat widespread that Africa had enor-mous agricultural potentialities, which neededonly the wholesale application of capital, andespecially machinery, for their rapid develop-ment. It was in this atmosphere that the EastAfrican Groundnut Scheme was conceived in1946 with the aim of overcoming the shortageof fats and oils caused by the reduction in ex-ports from the Far East. It was hoped to pro-duce, under mechanization, a crop of some600,000 tons of groundnuts by 1951, but actualresults never exceeded a few thousand tonsafter an expenditure of around 35 million pounds.From 1955, the land cleared by the OverseasFood Corporation has been in th.e hands of anew organization, the Tanganyika AgriculturalCorporation, which is conducting an AfricanTenant Farmers' Scheme and several promisingexperimental projects for the mechanized pro-duction of various crops.

This costly failure has already had a salutaryinfluence on the conception and execution ofmany subsequent projects. Generally it hascaused considerable modification of the beliefthat European or American agricultural meth-ods could easily be applied to African condi-tions. The need to proceed through the succes-

5'. Office du Niger, Notes et (Andes documentaires,No. 2240, Paris, 12 December 1956 ; Compte rendusuccinct de la campagne agricole 1955-1956, Archivesde l'Office du Niger, No. 18, 1956.

sive stages of investigation, experiment and pilotproject before beginning full-scale developmentis now usually recognized, even if not alwaysstrictly followed in practice.

Another important post-war influence was theestablishment in 1947 of the Cameroons Devel-opment Corporation to operate 100,000 hectares-of plantations, taken over by the governmentfrom their former German owners. Similarorganizations engaged in direct production nowplay a significant part in a number of the Britishterritories. Their activities cover a wide range,but a major function, especially of the RegionalProduction Development Boards in Nigeria, isplantation-scale production, for which the alien-ation of land to private concerns would beunacceptable. Some of these schemes are car-ried out in conjunction with private partners.In a number of territories such semipublicbodies also operate food production schemesnear the large centers of population.

The projects of the Colonial DevelopmentCorporation are broadly similar to those under-taken by the territorial organizations just de-scribed. Schemes managed directly or throughsubsidiary couapanies now include cattle ranchesin Bechuanaland, tobacco and tung estates inNyasaland, irrigation and forestry schemes inSwaziland and wattle estates in Tanganyika.A number of its earlier projects, most notablythat for poultry production in Gambia, had tobe abandoned after heavy losses, but a policyof retrenchment and caution has resulted in anet operating profit in each year from 1955.One of the early failures, the Niger AgriculturalProject at Mokwa, Northern Region of Nigeria,for the mechanized production of groundnutsand subsistence crops by peasant settlers onhitherto empty land, is of particular interest inthat its history has recently been analyzed ingreat detail. Again the chief mistake wasfound to be the lack of experiment and pilotoperations before beginning full-scale develop-ment.53

In the French territories, projects directly man-aged by public or semipublic bodies are lesscommon, but the Compagnie ge:ne'rale des oléagi-new; tropicaux has a scheme for the mechanizedproduction of groundnuts in the Casamancearea of Senegal. It was aimed to produce some70,000 tons by 1955, but initial results weredisappointing and from 1952 mechanization

53 K. D. S. Baldwin, The Niger Agricultural Proj-ect, Oxford, 1957.

155

has been confined to the preparation of the soil,other operations being performed by peasantsettlers. The same organization also operatesa project for completely mechanized productionof groundnuts at Niari in the Middle Congo,which has succeeded rather better. A furtherlarge scheme is that carried out at Richard Tollin Senegal by the Mission d'ame;.nagement duSénegat to investigate the possibilities of mech-anized rice production under irrigation.

The above are some of the chief large-scaleprojects of agricultural production that havebeen attempted in Africa South of the Saharasince the war. They are intended only as exam-ples and, in particular, some irrigation projectsat present in an early stage of implementationas part of wider hydroelectric schemes havebeen omitted. The large number of projectsand the rather high proportion of failures pointto the 'value of detailed analyses of these pro-jects in order to enable the lessons of previousschemes to be fully utilized in lle \V ones. Asyet available information is generally insuffi-cient, but a notable exception is the valuablestudy referred to above, which illustrates the,great complexity of the factors involved in the,planning and execution of agricultural devel-opment projects.

The, Improvement of Indigenous AgricutturalSystems. In part because of the disappointingresults of so many of these large-scale schemes,the focus is shifting more an.d more to the pos-sibilities of improvement within existing indi-genous systems of agriculture. This less specta-cular aim has always received a major share offunds for research, extension, etc., in most terri-tories, but it is now coming more to the fore-front as the main direction in which progresscan be achieved. It is increasingly recognizedthat in many areas African agricultural systemsare well adapted to the environment, althoughat a low level of productivity, and that it ismore suita,ble to make improvements withinthese systems than to attempt to replace themcompletely by different techniques.

The principal example of this approach isthe system of paysannats indigènes employedin the Belgian Congo and, to a smaller extent,in Ruanda-Urundi, S011le technical features ofwhich have already been described in otherparts of this chapter. The introduction of cashcrops and the production of sufficient food sup-plies had previously been stimulated by a system

of obligatory cultivation. The paysannat pol-icy was begun experimentally before the warand is now being intensively applied under thedevelopment plans. By the beginning of 1955,paysannats based on annual crops covered 5.2million hectares in the Belgian Congo andRuanda-.Urundi, and those based on perennialcrops a further 130,000 hectares.54 The policyis very flexible and individual paysannats areclosely adapted to local conditions, of whichvery detailed surveys are first made. The basicaim is to settle farmers on the best soils underskilled supervision and to replace shifting culti-vation by rotational systeins. Under the sec-ond ten-year plan now in preparation, agricul-tural systeins will be intensified by mechaniza-tion and the replacement of the long bush fallowby a short productive fallow and the use offertilizers. It is also intended eventually forthe members of each paysannat to be membersof a co-operative as well. A high degree ofmechanization is already proving successful ina number of pilot centers ; economic as wellas technical results appear promising, whileeven with many operations performed centrallythere is still scope, for individual initiative andbetter work to obtain yields and returns wellabove average.

A type of paysannat is also being developedin French 'Equatorial Africa. Pla,ns on similarlines for the stabilization of African farmershave recently been started in Angola and Mo-zambique.

in French West Africa good progress is beingachieved in some areas through the Sociétésmutueltes de. production ruralre (SMPR), a typeof co-operative -which has recently replacedsome of the former S'ociétés indivènes de pré-voyance. The detailed agricultural objectivesof the SMPR vary in different areas, but gen-erally the aim is to establish improved versionsof the traditional type of farm (fumes tradition-nettes antéliorées). Farms of about 3 hectaresmade available from communal land are allottedto individuals, to whom the S.MPR makes agift of the necessary 'equipment, etc. Afterthree years' supervision by a monitor of the agri-cultural department, which provides selectedseeds, etc., and approves a plan of productionwhich must be followed, if the farmer is satisfac-

" P. Staner, " Les paysannats indigènes du Congobelgo et du Ruanda-Urundi," Bulletin a,gricole duCongo beige, XLVI, No. 3, Bru.ssels, 1955, pp. 497-558.

156

tory, he becomes the owner of the equipmentand supervision ceases.

Other formulas :include the consolidation ofholdings and farm planning carried out inKenya under the Plan to Intensify the Develop-ment of African Agriculture (Swynnerton Plan),the promotion of' rotations and mixed farmingthrough the Master Farmers Schemes in Nyasa-land and Southern Rhodesia, etc., etc. Inaddition to such specific systems, in all terri-tories a large part of research and extensionwork is, of course, directe,d towards this generalaim of the iniprovement of traditional systemsof agriculture.

Fishery Policies. In fisheries also, policiesandi plans relate to a variety of objectives, re-flecting widely different levels of commercialdevelopment and different opportunities andrequirements for intensifying the exploitationof marine and inland resources. In Angola,the Union of South Africa, and South WestAfrica, fishery programs relate to highly com-mercialized industries which have been devel-oped by private enterprise and capital. Policieshiere are concerned with supervisory and regu-latory functions, .with biological and technolo-gical research and with the provision and main-tenance of COT1111101.1 services, e.g., harbors,markets, water supply, etc.

In much of the rest of the region the fisheriesare considered mainly in terms of their contri-bution to national food supplies, on nutritionalgrounds, and from the standpoint of the eco-nomic and social welfare of the fishing commu-nities. These policies obviously call for morecomprehensive programs involving financial aidand direct assistance in the application of im-proved fishing and marketing methods.

Limited financial means are reflected in thesmallness of the fishery services generally, whencompared -1,vith the breadth of their administra-tive responsibilities, in the lack of trained spe-cialists in certain fields, especially in economicand institutional matters, and in the provisionof desirable equipment and facilities, the 'latteralso being restricted by foreign exchange prob-lems.

There are, however, a few governments whichoccupy ami intermediate position, inasmuch asthey are concerned both with the developmentof traditional fisheries on general social and eco-nomic grounds and also with the specializedoperations of certain private commercial en-terprises which have successfully introduced

modern equipment, installations, and methods,greatly in advance of traditional practices, e.g.,in the Belgian Congo, French West Africa, a,ndFrench Equatorial Africa.

With regard to the administration of fisheryprograms in Africa, South of the Sahara, someproblems of co-ordination appear in th.e matterof price, tariff and other controls on fish prod-ucts, which sometimes operate to the disad-vantage of fishermen, both in domestic and ex-port markets. These and other difficulties asso-ciated with the marketing an.d consumption offish products reflect policies which, in general,are influenced by the apparent potential forincreased production rather than an evaluationof fishing costs in relation to prevailing demandand prices in accessible markets. This is un-derstandable in the early stages of fishery pro-grams, but the very success of these policiesalrea,dy manifest in some African fisheries maycall for corresponding adjustments in the struc-ture of the fish trade and, therefore, in the plan-ning and implementation of fishery programs.

Common interests in certain natural resourcesand markets may also call for more extensiveintergovernmental consultation with a view topromoting co-ordination of research and regu-lation and to incre,a,sing the flow and consump-tion of fish products regionally.

Forestry Policies. Integration of a forestpolicy into a general land use development planis of fundamental importance in the region,since much of the forest area is threatened bythoughtless destruction or ruthless exploitationunder climatic and soil conditions which oftenmake reforestation extremely difficult.

The general policy has been to carry outsurveys of the existing timber resources and,with an eye on future industrial developmentand marketing possibilities, to delimit and re-serve a minimum forest domain deemed suffi-cient to ensure the productive and protectivefunctions expected of it. Consideration i.s givenin the location of such reserves to the forest'sessential role in soil protection, in the mainte-nance of water supplies, and in preserving asequable a local climate as possible.

The areas of forest cover outside these reserveshave been opened to exploitation under asmuch control as the slender resources of ForestService staff permit. In some countries (nota-bly in Ghana, where the policy was to openland to cacao cultivation by a prior " salvageof all valuable timber species available) the

157

rate of clearing by farmers for the planting ofcacao and other tree crops has exceeded thatof those interested in the forest resources, withthe result that much of the export value whichcould have been drawn from forest arcas outsidethe reserves has been lost. What is moreserious still is th.at inroads are being made insome cases even into the zones reserved as theminimum area considered necessary to satisfythe country. An urgent need therefore existsfor educating public opinion in the essentialrole of forests in the long-term social, physical,and economic welfare of an area, and for step-ping up the training of a sufficient staff of forestpersonnel at all levels to safegua,rd and managethe forest estate that remains.

In a number of cases it has been recognizedthat exploitation should not be limited to areasoutside the reserves as long as these last. Con-tinued research is essential into methods forincreasing the economic value of the tropicalforest and this can best be ca,rried out withinthe reserves which are destined to form a per-manent forest estate. As far as their accessi-bility permits, therefore, they have not beenleft untouched and unproductive, but have beenplaced .under management designed to enablethem to produce their maximum yield when thetimber resources of the country are largely re-duced to the reserved area only.

MAIN PROBLEMS

A large number of problems and obstacles toagricultural development and nutritional im-provement have emerged in the course of thischapter. Some of these are peculiar to the re-gion or to some part of it, but more of themare common in some degree to all the less de-veloped parts of the world. The region is toodiverse and this study too preliminary to attemptto allocate priority to particular problems forfurther study and action or to propose solutionsfor them. It does seeni useful, however, toclose the chapter with a summary of the var-ious problems that have been re,ferred to atdifferent points in the discussion.

The steady postwar growth in production andtrade in agricultural, fisheries, and forestry prod-ucts is impressive, but satisfaction with thisgeneral situation must be tempered in three,principal respects. Firstly, the actual level ofproduction to which such a high rate of in-crease has applied is still extremely low inrelation to the population and the available

land, while the growth of population is itselfenforcing the development of more permanentand productive systems of agriculture. Second-ly, food consumption is inadequate, particu-larly from the point of view of its nutritionalquality. Thirdly, the export revenues of manyterritories are highly vulnerable to fluctuationsin world prices. Most of the main food andagricultural problems, economic, institutional,nutritional, social, and technical, fall underth.ese three heads.

Low Productivity

Improved productivity is, of course, the keyto increased incomes and to economic and socialdevelopment in general. Most territories in theregion are likely to remain mainly dependentfor a long time on their domestic agriculture notonly for feeding their own populations but forobtaining the revenues needed for further devel-opment. Improvements in the agriculturalsector are therefore crucial.

The present level of agricultural productionper head of the total population appears to belower than in any other main region except theFar East, where, in sharp contrast to most partsof Africa South of the Sahara, there is veryheavy population pressure. While comparableyield data are scarce, it seems that, generallyspeaking, yields of most crops and also of live-stock are very low in comparison with the restof the world and even with other underdevelopedareas. In some parts of the region Europeanfarmers obtain yields well above those in indi-genous agriculture, but even these are oftenlower than those prevailing in other regions.

Almost everywhere in Africa South of theSahara agricultural progress depends on stud-ying and overcoming various adverse factors,including difficulty in preventing erosion andmaintaining fertility, uncertain rainfall and theabundance of diseases and pests, particularlythe tsetse fly. In many areas the productivityof labor is reduced by unfavorable climate,diseases, and malnutrition. It seems hardlylikely that any sudden revolution in the overalllevel of productivity could occur, except per-haps through the substantial changes thatmight result from the successful control of thetsetse fly, which at present excludes the moreproductive breeds of livestock from very wideareas and limits the use of animal traction inagriculture, though as a factor in human dis-

158

ease its importance has recently been sharplyreduced.

Nevertheless, very considerable progress couldbe achie,ved and much has already been donein the breeding of improved plants and animals,in the control of pests and diseases, and in landutilization. But for these results of researchand for the application of improved techniquesto have a full and lasting effect on yields, manyfurther economic, social, and technical obstaclesremain to be overcome.

In most areas the most urgent technical prob-lems are probably the need for system' s of landand water utilization that are better adaptedto the building-up and maintenance of soil fertil-ity and can conserve water resources and applythem to the most fertile land. Although thepopulation of most of the region is sparse bynormal standards, in many area,s it is alreadytoo great for the maintenance of fertility underexisting extensive, methods and the develop-ment of suitable systems of permanently settledagriculture is imperative. A very large partof the forest cover of Africa South of the Saharahas already been destroyed through the systemsof shifting cultivation prevalent over wide areasof the region and through the opening up ofland for tree-crop production. Burning to pro-vide pasture has also been an important factor.The forest resources that have been destroyedhave usually been completely wasted, or usedfor fuel. Far more serious, however, is theeffect of this destruction on the water regimeand on the fertility and stability of the soil.It has been suggested that if soil and water re-sources, the two basic elements for the agri-cultural development of Africa South of theSahara, are to be maintained in a productivecondition, about 30 percent of the land surfacemust be kept under forest cover in the tropicaland subtropical zone and as much as 45 percentin the equatorial belt ivithin this zone. In manyareas these critical minima are being approachedand sometimes they have already been passed.

The need for soil conservation dominates theagricultural situation in some parts of East andSouth Africa, where erosion is particularly se-rious. Almost everywhere, however, there iseviden.ce that yields are tending to decline as,with the growth of population, the shiftin.g culti-vation cycle is reduced below the minimumperiod needed for regeneration. Changes inindigenous systems of land utilization are beingintroduced in atl territories, often through set-tlement schemes, but mostly they are still ex-

perimental and it is too early for an assessment oftheir success. One lesson has, h.owever, alreadyemerged fairly clearly. Postwar experience strong-ly suggests that the -wholesale application ofc. modern " methods is not appropriate and thatprogress must be attempted much more slowlyby building on and improving the existing indi-genous methods. Systems of permanent agri-.culture developed in other tropical arcas mayalso be found suitable in certain parts of theregion. in particular, much progress can prob-ably be looked for through the gradual devel-opment of appropriate systems of mixed farm-ing, the introduction of suitable rotations, andthe provision of better hand and animal-drawnhaplements.

Forestry and fisheries production also havetheir own technical problems. The present lowproductivity of the forests is an important causeof their ruthless destruction, and an enhance-ment of their economic value would thereforehave very far-reaching beneficial effects. Inthe economic exploitation of the region's timberresources the main obstacles are the inaccessi-bility of many of the forest areas and the mixed.aature of the tropical forest, which containsinany species whose commercial value is notknown. Outlets for the latter are, however,increasingly being found in the manufacture offibreboard and particle board, pulp and paper,products which can bear heavy transport costsmore readily than can bulky timber.

Outside the relatively highly developed seafisheries of the southern part of the region,fishing and processing techniques generally re-main primitive. Tropical conditions cause manymarketing problems and accentuate the effectsof inefficient preparation, handling, storage, andtransport.

Increased productivity in agriculture, fisheries,and forestry does not depend solely on technicalfactors, however. Ignorance and the generallack of training facilities are still formidableobstacles. Improvements in the methods ofthe individual small farmer are also severelyhampered by the lack of savings and the ina-dequacy of the supply of rural credit. Socialfactors hampering increased productivity in-clude tribal systems of land tenure and thecustom, in many areas, to regard livestock asa store of wealth or sign of prestige, so thatnumbers count instead of quality or produc-tivity.

Where production is mainly for subsistence,the concept of increased productivity has very

159

little meaning and it is very difficult for govern-ment policies for improvement to penetrateexcept in areas -where the production of cashcrops is already established. Little is yet knownwith certainty about the response of the Africanfarmer to price incentives, while it is also sur-prising, in view of the widespread prevalence ofthe problem in the less developed regions, howlittle systematic study has been made of thebest methods of easing the transition from sub-sistence to a market economy. Certainly, how-ever, in Africa South of the Sahara, the pro-vision of marketing facilities and, especially,transport are among the key factors in thistransition.

While in many other parts of the world theprovision of industrial and other alternativeemployment for surplus agricultural populationis a prerequisite for the raising of agriculturalproductivity, in most of Africa South of theSahara this does not appear to be so and agri-culture and industry often compete for labor.Except for the provision of enlarged urbanmarkets for foodstuffs, industrialization has notso far had wholly beneficial effects on agricul-tural production in the region. Much of theindustrial labor supply is based on temporarymigrant workers who return to their villagesafter a short period of work in mining or otherindustry, where they may frequently accumu-,late neither capital nor skill and in the mean-time leave their villages with inadequate laborfor agricultural production.

Nutritional Problems

The available data indicate that the increasein food and agricultural production has morethan kept up with the growth of population inthe postwar period. Dietary surveys also sug-gest that the intake of calories generally moreor less corresponds to calculated needs. Theseneeds are based, however, on the present stateof the population, which has usually been mal-nourished from birth and before. Thus, if bet-ter diets were available from ami early age it isvery probable that the calorie needs of the adultpopulation would be increased on account ofgreater weight, degree of activity and otherfactors.

In some areas even calorie needs as calculatedat pre,sent are not satisfied during the periodof shortage or "hungry season " that precedesthe harvest. While the magnitude of thisshortage appears to have been reduced in many

areas, recent surveys suggest that it is still awidespread problem. In particular, much fur-ther progress appears to be needed in the provi-sion of family and village storage facilities andalso in the development of earlier maturing va-rieties of crops, especially of millets and sor-ghums.

FrOM the nutritional point of view, 110WCVC17,it iS the pattern of food production and consump-tion, rather than its low level, which mosturgently needs changing. Even where calorieneeds appear to be satisfied, ahnost all availableinformation on diets indicates that their nutri-tional quality is unsatisfactory. A deficiencyof protein, especially animal protein, and ofcertain vitamins and minerals appears to bevery widespread. These deficiencies, above allprotein deficiency, are the cause of much morbid-ity and mortality in the region. They contri-bute especially to the very high rate of infantmortality between the a,ges of one and four andmust also cause reduced activity and produc-tivity in the adult worker.

Most research and most efforts to improveproduction and marketing have so far been di-rected mainly to the export crops. EVen wherework has Leen done on the local food crops, ithas been chiefly concerned with the starchystaples, improvements in the production of whichwere .initially required to prevent actual famine,and which now occupy too great a place in thediet. Livestock has received much attention,but this is a long-term question and more em-phasis could probably be given to shorter-termpossibilities of improvement in dietary qualitythrough increased production of such foods asfish, pulses, green vegetables, and fruits.

While the diversification of food productionis urgently needed, the problem is not one ofproduction alone. In many arcas nutritionalignorance and taboos forbidding the consump-tion of certain foods, especially of the all impor-tant animal products by the most vulnerablegroups of the population, have still to be over-come, even though the influence of these factorsis decreasing as a result of contacts with theoutside world. In most of the areas wherecattle are abundant it is proving very difficultto introduce the idea that the animals shouldprovide a regular source of food and a mar-ketable surplus. Nutritional education and homeeconomics work will clearly play a large part indietary improvements in Africa South of theSahara. In this connection, there is also muchscope for reductions in the time spent in food

160

preparation, e.g., pounding cereals and roots byprimitive methods.

-Urban diets present particular proble.ms,though here at least educational and home eco-nomics programs can be conducted more easilyand cheaply than in sparsely populated ruralareas. In the towns improvements in incomeare of overriding importance.

Export Problems

While commodities for export represent muchthe smaller part of the agricultural productionof Africa South of the Sahara, they are the mainsource of money incomes, foreign exchange, andgovernment revenues in most areas. In manyteiritories the sums that can be set aside fordevelopment expenditure depend mainly onagricultural export earnings. The main exportproblems concern both th.e level and time patternof production.

The sharp fluctuations in world prices towhich the main agricultural exports of the re-gion have been subject in the postwar periodillustrate the great vulnerability of these in-comes and revenues. In many territories post-war schemes for time control of producer priceshave given greater stability to the incomes ofthe many small producers in the region. Totalexport revenues and. thus th.e government rev-enues deriving from export taxes have, how-ever, fluctuated considerably. Short of in-ternational agreements for the stabilization ofworld prices, such as have often been contem-plated but rarely put into practice in the post-War period, these fluctuations seem bound tocontinue. To some extent their effects, espe-cially on the funds available for development,can be mitigated by setting aside reserves inyears of high prices for use wh.en revenues arelower.

Fluctuations in total export earnings couldalso probably be reduced if these earnings werederived from a wider range of commoditiesthan is at present the case in most territories.It has already been emphasized, however, thatthe diversification of production is both a dif-ficult and a rather long-term process and thatit is probably unwise, in the case of exports,to expect too much from it. In particular,the choice of a new or at present minor cropfor encouragement involves very careful judge-ment of future export possibilities, often,especially in the case of tree crops, a long while

in advance of the time when the crop will bein substantial production.

In the last few years, as the main postwarshortages have been overcome, world marketsfor the chief exports of Africa South of the Saharahave tended to become much more highly com-petitive. Thus the level of productivity ofthese crops, which determines their cost ofproduction and thus their competitive abilityis an increasingly important factor. In spite ofthe great volume of research devoted to exportcreips, the generally low yields referred to earlierapply to these crops also and much further workappears to be necessary on the breeding ofimproved varieties, the control of diseases, theuse o:E fertilizers, and the improvement of cul-tural methods. While the organization of exportmarketing is now fairly highly developed, itseems essential that efforts to improve quality,which also determines the competitive posi-tion of a product, should not be relaxed.

judging by the rates of increase achievedrecently for some of the major exports, thesecould be very substantially and rapidly in-creased, given sufficient encouragement in worldmarkets. Demand in the industrialized coun-tries for the main exports of tropical areas suchas Africa South ot the Sahara appears likelyto continue to increase steadily, in line withthe growth_ of economic activity and of incomesin those countries, and the main factor whichcould cause a break in this expansion would bethe development of successful synthetic substi-tutes. This problem is probably more acutefor industrial raw materials than for food prod-ucts, but recent experience with cacao is par-ticularly significant, indicating that if pricesrise too steeply manufacturers tend imme-diately to begin or intensify the search for asubstitute.

With only a few rather specialized exceptions,most territories in the region produce the greatbulk of their own food supplies. This is itselfa stabilizing influence oil their economies andtends to protect them from the most extremeeffects of fluctuations in export earnings. Itemphasizes once again the need for governmentsnot to neglect to encourage the production ofadequate domestic food supplies, particularlyin view of the, increasing rate of populationgro w th.

The present low level of intraregional trademay offer some scope for a strengthening of theexport position of some, territories. Whiletransport difficulties and the composition of the

161

export and import trade militate against anysubstantial increase, except in the long term,in the volume of trade movements within theregion some increase is ce,rtainly possible ifexport opportunities in neighboring territories,especially those where urbanization is rapid, aregiven more consideration in production planning.Already in the postwar period there has beena substantial increase in exports of cattle toneighboring territories ; here the va,rying physi-cal conditions within the region, especially thepresence of the tsetse fly, have enforced adegree of spe,cialization. It also appears likelythat increased fish production would find sub-stantial outlets in intraregional trade if market-ing and transport problems can be overcome.Similarly, the economics of maize production ineastern and southern Africa would seem worthyof study, for recently a number of unexpectedexport surpluses have had to be sent at a lossto distant markets outside the region, only tobe followed by the need to import in the fol-lowing season, while in some territories muchuf the maize is grown on land marginal for itsproduction, with consequent low yields. It maywell be that an investigation of this and someother products might reveal a strong case forsome degree of intraregional specialization inproduction and for some co-ordination of pro-duction, trade, and storage policies.

The Organization of Measures forImprovement

It is hoped that, although extremely tenta-tive, the above summary of some of the princi-pal problems that seem to emerge from anexamination of the food and agricultural situa-tion of Africa South of the Sahara may help tosuggest some lines for :future study and action,either in specific areas or at the regional level.Emphasis of these problems at the close of thisstudy should not, however, be allowed to de-tract from the great strides that llave alreadybeen made in combating them. In general theyare the very problems to which governmentsllave given most attention in the period underreview.

The first and most basic stage of governmentassistance is in the organization of research.It is clear that there has been a substantialpostwar increase in research facilities, while, amajor development during this period has beenthe growth of international co-ordination andexchange in the research field, especially under

tch aegis of the Commission for Technical Co-operation in Africa South of the Sahara (CCTA)and its Scientific Council (CSA). In view ofthe growing shortage of trained technicians,increased co-operation of this nature could pro-bably have most beneficial effects and the bur-den of the necessary research could be to someextent sha,red. This would probably providemore opportunity for research into some of thefiekls that have so far been less explored, suchas basic soil, water, and general resource surveys,the study of the factors that have shaped theevolution of existing indigenous systems of agri-culture and their value in devising improvedsystems, and more research on the local foodcrops whose prodUction is so influential in de-termining human welfare in the region.

The improvements that are made possible byresearch must, however, be translated intopractice and in Africa South of the Sahara thisseems to be the more difficult part of the prob-lem. Even more than elsewhere, it appearsthat the actual application of improved methodslags behind the achievements of research. ItIvould appear to be essential for extension workto be regarded as a more specialized branch ofactivity than at present, taking more accountof the maay social and other nontechnicalobstacles to improvement.

Much has also been done in assisting adjust-ments in land tenure systems, in the organiza-tion of marketing facilities, and in encouragingthe growth of co-operatives. The question ofchanges in tribal systems of land holding isa particularly complex one and would seem afruitful field for the international exchange ofex.perience. Marketing organization has tend-ed to concentrate on export crops and there isstill much scope for improvement in respectof local food supplies, especially as internal move-ments of .food products will increase with

162

growing populations and greater urbanization.Among the many fields where co-operative or-ganization has been found advantageous, theprovision of credit to small farmers is one whichcould be developed much further, while theexperimental introduction of systems of supervis-ed credit might also prove valuable.

Much of the postwar improvement in the foodand agricultural situation has resulted, eitherdirectly or indirectly, from the plans and pro-grams of economic and social development thathave been executed in almost all territories.Such public investment is bound to remain oneof the main lines of progress for a long time tocome, especially in the provision of such all-important basic facilities as transport, whichhas so far been one of the main purposes of theseprograms.

It may be that the region is entering a periodwhen capital supplies, especially from loans andfrom current revenue resources, for the execu-tion of these plans are likely to be tighter. Thisemphasizes the need, not only for increased in-ternational attention to the mobilization ofcapital for underdeveloped regions but also forcloser examination of priorities in developmentplanning. There is an urgent need for improve-ment in the provision of the basic data requiredfor realistic planning, such as demographic,agricultural, and food consumption statistics,resource surveys and reliable assessments offuture world demand for exports. Above all,clear-cut agricultural policies, fully integratc,,dinto overall policies for economic development,are required. In Africa South of the Saharasuch policies should particularly take accountof the overriding nutritional needs of the pop-ulation and of the need to have a comprehen-sive land-use policy which does not allow thewasteful destruction of irreplaceable forest andsoil resources.

Chapter IV - THE GROWTH OF FOREST INDUSTRIESAND THEIR IMPACT ON THE WORLD'S FORESTS

INTRODUCTION

Tabloid educators have familiarized mostpeople with the fact that the timber from 50hectares of forest is consumed by a single Sun-day edition of a New York newspaper.' A fear-some picture is thus created in people's mindof modern pulp and paper industries jugger-nauts relentlessly rolling back the forest bound-aries and destroying man's forest heritage.Though this picture may contain a pal ticle oftruth, it is on the whole false and inaccurate.Man made war on th.e forests long before theadvent of modern forest industries. Wood-working industries in the modern sense date backless than a century with the introduction of thesteam engine into the saw-mill. Even todayit is not the giant modern forest industrieswhich are making the most serious inroads inthe forest ; indeed, in many parts of the worldlarge-scale industrial exploiters of the forestare today setting a shining example of forestcare and conservation.

Man's " pro-industrial " impacts on the forestbegan soon after the emergence of man ; theyhave proceeded through historical times, chang-ing their nature with man's ceaseless develop-ment.

Of course, the earth's forest cover variedconsiderably in prehistoric times. The forestvegetation and forest boundaries fluctuatedwith secular changes in climate and under theinfluence of such material agencies as storm,drift sand, snow, insect pests, fungus diseasesand fire caused by lightning and volcanic erup-tions. The margins of many woodlands mustalso have been affected by long-continued graz-ing of large herds of wild animals. It is be-lieved that in prehistoric times forests coveredmost of the world sa,ve the ice-capped polar

Assuming Canadian coniferous forest, clea,r-felled.On a sustained-yield basis about 5,000 hectareswould be required.

163

regions, barren mountains, the Sahara, Kalahari,Gobi deserts and open areas such as time Russiansteppes and the American prairies. That isto say, before the influence of man about halfof the land area of the world almost 60 millionsquare kilometers was covered with primevalforest ; but whereas in prehistoric times the for-est area fluctuated, shrinking in time glacialperiods and recovering when the climate ,be-came warmer, in historic times, under man'sinfluence, time forest area has almost continouslydiminished.

The areas deforested, as may be seen fromtime maps, correspond closely to the areas ofpopulation concentration, for while dense virginforest is essential to primitive human life it ishostile to civilization. As man multiplied, ashis social organization and culture changed,the forest boundary receded before him. Aglance at the successive phases of this historicalprocess will help to place the impact of modernforest industries in better perspective.

The Food-Gatherer and Hunter

Through time greater pa:1 of his history manhas obtained his food from time forest gameand seeds, fruit, berries, roots, etc. Still todaywild fruit, seeds, and game are time staple of manypeoples in remote areas.

Both for ea,rly man and for contemporaryprimitive tribes, however, time forest was andis more than a reservoir of food. The skinsof sable, fox, and bear provided clothing. Time

forest gave shelter from wind, rain, and sun,and protection from enemies. Wood as a ma-terial was used for a variety of purposes, includ-ing construction, but its main use was as fuelto give warmth and light, and to cook by. Andstill today, taking time world as a whole, morewood is consumed as fuel timan for all otherpurposes taken together.

FIG

UR

E IV

-1 (

a). P

opul

atio

n of

the

Wor

ld

C 2

90-2

91

dot =

100

,000

per

sons

Fro

m T

he O

xfor

d A

tlas.

By

perm

issi

on o

fT

he C

lare

ndon

Pre

ss, O

xfor

d.

FIG

UR

E IV

-1 (

b). F

ores

ts o

f the

Wor

ld

For

est r

eser

veC

om m

erci

al fo

rest

Def

ores

ted

area

s

Cou

rtes

y :

Dr.

E. G

lesi

nger

For primitive man the orest was the basisof his existence ; he had no apparent causeto destroy it. Yet recent research has shown2that the practice of reducing the forest area byfire and by tree-girdling must have been wide-spread long before shifting agriculture came intobeing. This may have been to facilitate hunt-ing or the digging of roots, or the object mayhave been to kill and dry wood for fuel. Some-times these inroads may have been self-healing,even facilitating the development of treevegetation. But often they must have resultedin pushing forward permanently the bound-aries of steppes, prairies, and sava,nnahs.

The Farm Versus the ForestA revolution in the human economy was

effected when man started to control his ownfood supply, through cultivation and stock-breeding. Both imply forethought, and thecapacity to create and utilize surpluses ; boththus permitted a rise in population. Agricul-ture does not imply permanent settlement, anymore than hunting implies noinadism, and earlyagriculture, in all parts of the world, was prob-ably shifting, giving way to settled apicul-ture only as land became scarce and techniquesimproved.

Much of the world's crop and pasture landhas been acquired without infringing on theforested areas, for example in the North Amer-ican prairies, the South American pampasand the Russian steppes, and this process willcontinue in some parts of the world. Butmost of the land under agriculture today hasbeen won by clearing the forest. It has beenestimated th.at about one third of the originalforest in the United States has been cleared,in Western and Central Europe, and also inIndia, about 80 percent, and an even. higherproportion in England and China. It is morethan likely that the forest has yielded moreground to agriculture than to any other demand.Farmers and herdsmen continue to win mostof their new land from the forest, and this pro-cess will undoubtedly continue, though withslackening speed in many regions.

In the temperate zones of the NorthernHemisphere the boundaries between farm andforest are at present almost stationary. inWestern Europe and the United States the

2 Erhard Rostlund, The Outlook for the World'sForests and their Chief Products. Now York, 1956.

166

forest has even regained some ground throughreforestation and afforestation. Forest clear-ance continues in parts of Canada and Eurasia,but this may be balanced by afforestation inother areas of the same regions. However,there is a steady pressure for more land for foodin both. Europe and North America, while moreground is needed for urban and industrial ex-pansion. It is the need to meet this demandwhile yet preserving beneficent forest influe,ncesand safeguarding future timber supplies thatis focusing attention increasingly on land usepolicies and increased productivity in agricul-ture.

In the temperate zones of South America,Africa, and Australasia the forest area, neverlarge as compared with the Northern Hemi-sphere, seems to be stabilizing, even increasingthrough the planting of exotic species.

Throughout the tropics, however, the forestcontinues to lose ground to agriculture, and itseems doubtful whether this trend will bechecked in the coining decades. The use offire to clear forest for crops and pasture prevailsin many tropical and subtropical countries. Athird of Southeast Asian agriculture is said tobe under shifting cultivation. In Africa someauthorities assert that the original tropical for-est area has already been reduced by two thirdsand that, unless determined efforts are made tochange the farming system, the whole of thetropical virgin forest may disappear withinour lifetime.

The problem of shifting aboriginal farmingis no simple one, however. Clearly a prodigalwaste of timber is involved. If erosion -followsclearance, if cropping is carried on too long, ifthe land is overgrazed, regeneration is hindered,the land becomes unproductive waste landrecoverable only at high cost. On the otheihand, most tropical soils are poor in nutrients,and many authorities believe that they can onlybe continuously cultivated by using the forestas an essential part of the cycle to restore fertil-ity to the soil.

Finally, there are many arid zones in the worldsome formerly forested where the re-

establishment of vegetation and some forestcover is a necessary precondition for a develop-ment of agricultural activity and indeed forany economic progress at all.

It may well be that in certain areas of theworld the further alienation of forested land foragriculture is necessary, inevitable, even desir-able. But it is of cardinal importance that

this process be planned and controlled in theframework of integrated land use policies if theinterests of future generations are not to besacrificed.

The Need for Fuel

From earliest times the inain use of wood asa material was as domestic fuel. The adventof the early civilizations, about five millenniaago, led to an enormous expansion in fuel-woodneeds. Urbanization and relatively complexforms of social organization had been madepossible by a variety of innovations ; the har-nessing of wind, water and animal power ; theinvention of the plow and the wheel ; the dis-covery of brick and pottery making and ofmetal working. Settled and more productiveagriculture, increasing division of labor, grow-ing contacts including trade betweencommunities, led to a ra,pid rise in populationwhich multiplied domestic fuel needs. Newcrafts demanding sustained high temperaturesbrought a rising demand for fuel wood and

FIGURE IV-2 (a). Wood Consumptíon byRegions (1955)

Million CubicMeters

167

cha,rcoal. Much of the deforestation in his-torical times, for example in the MediterraneanBasin, in the Indian subcontinent, and in China,has probably resulted from the incessant dep-redations of the forest for fuel. It should beremembered that right down to the eighteenthcentury, fuel wood a,nd charcoal were, for allpractical purposes, the only energy-giving com-bustibles to supplement wind, water, and mus-cle power. In many parts of the world th.eyremain so today.

In Europe the incursions on the forest areaaccelerated in the fifteenth century with theinvention of iron smelting and steel. Therising demand for implements of peace andwar drove back the forests from the iron areas.The new industry created tools which made iteasier to deplete the forests. The rapid pro-gress of other arts glass, pottery, brick, etc.

added to the demand for wood. For thefirst time forests were protected by law. Ironproduction in Europe moved from the denudedSouth and West to Sweden and the Urals wherewood wa,s plentiful.

FIGURE W-2 (b). Wood Consumption per1,000 Capita (1955)

Cubic metersPer 1,000 Capita

EUROPE U.S.S.R. NORTH LATIN AFRICA ASIA PACIFIC EUROPE U.S.S.R. N. LATIN AFRICA ASIA PACIFIC WORLDAMERICA AMERICA AREA AMER. AMER. AREA

Industrial wood Industrial wood

Fuel wood Fuel wood

The application or development of otherforms of energy coal, oil, and electiicitycame in time to save the remnants of Europe'sforests. These have substituted wood andcharcoal in most industrial processes as well asfor domestic purposes in many areas. ,In Eu-rope and North America wood has become arural fuel, when it is used at all.

But though the use of wood as fuel is declin-ing in Europe and North America, absolutolyand per caput, in Asia, Africa, Central andSouth America fuel is still the mo.A importantuse of wood. Moreover, there is every reasonto believe th.at recorded figures of fuel-woodremovals seriously understate total fuel-woodconsumption. Thus it iS reasonably certainthat \veil over half the wood used in the worldtoday is used as fuel.

Because the forests have been razed, millionsin Asia rely on COW dung and grass for fueltoday. But the majozity of the peoples ofAsia, Africa, and Latin America still rely onwood fo fuel, and must continue to do so untilnew sources of energy have been developed inthose arcas and until increased purchasing powerhas brought these new forms within their reach.The problem therefore is to ensure that fuel-wood cutting shall not be destructive, toprove fuel-wood utilization practices, andsome arcas to create) fuel-wood plantations.By these means it may be possible to avert thedire consequences that attend reckless devas-tation of the forests.

Wood for Industry

The brief account in the foregoing paragraphsof the pressure of agriculture on the forest andof the need for fuel might suggest that the de-mands on the forest for wood for constructionaland other industrial purposes have been rela-tiVely insignificant. But at various times andin particular arcas these demands have con-stituted the greatest drain on the forest, andthis is the case in all developed regions of theworld today.

Wood is the traditional building material.Though other materials have ousted it or di-minished its importance in wood-deficit coun-tries and in conurbations, wherever wood isplentiful it is still the dominant material. Andeven where wood is scarce, provided it is ob-tainable at all, it continues to play an importantrole. Wherever man has settled, he has needed

168

wood for construction, and this has frequentlyled to heavy overeating of the best timberin the surrounding areas.

Shipbuilding, too, has been a heavy woodconsumer in past times, though its importancehas diminished since the advent of steel ships.The fleets of the Greek and Phoenician mariners,and later of the Romans, contributed largelyto deforestation in the Mediterranean Basin.The mountains of Greece were nearly strippedof trees by the fifth century B.C., and thereaftership timber was sought ever farther afieldin the Altai mountains, in Italy, and in otherlands of the Western Mediterranean. When,after the Dark Ages, other maritime powersarose, the need for ship timber depleted theforests of the Pyrenees, Britain, the Low Coun-tries, and Germany. This may have been animportant factor also on the coasts of the Indianpeninsula and perhaps on the borders of thePa cific.

Wooden props for mining m.ust have beenused in very ancient times, and the demandfor mine timber contributed to deforestation inSouthwest Asia, in the Sierra Nevada and SierraMorena in Spain, in the Erz Mountains in Ger-many, and many other mining regions. Indeedit WM deforestation resulting from the needfor mine timber that led to the promulgationof some of the ea,rliest forest regulationsGermany, Austria, and Mexico.

The rapid expansion of coal milling in thelast two centuries has accelerated the demandfor pitprops. and many coal regions have cometo depend on imported props. But today minetimber is losing its importance as an outletfor wood, in relative, and probably also in ab-solute, terms. This is partly due to the adventof new sources of power, and partly due to theincreasing use of steel and concrete in place ofwood in mines.

Avoidable CalamitiesEnough has perhaps been said to show that

the most serious encroachments on the forestoccurred long before the advent of modern for-est industries. In the sections which followan attempt will be made to sketch the historyof the principal forest industries and to examinetheir impact on the world's forests. But firstit is 'necessary to mention some other ways inwhich the forests have been diminished or de-pleted through man's carelessness or igno-r ance.

Fires are an important cause of forest dam-age. Controlled burning has its place in sil-vicultural practice. Clearance through burn-ing, as has already been indicated, is an essentialfeature of shifting cultivation. Accidental fires,however, are a constant headache to the forester.It is estimated that around 7 million cubic me-ters of timber are burned annually in the UnitedStates, in spite of an annual expenditure ofsome 63 million dollars on fire prevention andcontrol. 3 But there have been times duringcolonization periods, for example when evenaccidental fires were regarded as a blessing.

Pest plagues of various kinds represent animportant drain on the forest. Indeed, thereare still many forests in the world where na-tural losses of all kinds fires, insects, anddiseases balance gross increment, the amountof new wood put on yearly, so that there is nonet growth. But nature is not always aloneto blame. Inadequato precautions against theintroduction of pests and diseases on plantingstock can be dangerous. For example, at thebeginning of this century the chestnut blightfungus was carried from Asia to the UnitedStates on nursery plants, with the result thatthe American chestnut (Castanea dentata) hasbeen practically wiped out. Similarly, the in-troduction of the European white pine blisterrust into the United States at about the sametime has threatened the whole existence of theeastern white pine (Pinus strobus) on whichthe sawmilling industry in the United Stateswas founded.

The Douglas fir, on the other hand, nativeto time Western United States, was introducedinto Europe in the eighteenth century. It gaveexcellent results and was widely planted. Thirtyyears ago, however, the Rhabdocline funguswas carried from the United States to Europe,where its virulence increased, though not allforms of the tree were molested. More recent-ly, a severe disease, Adelopus needle cast, hasattacked all forms, and the planting of Douglasfir has now been given up is some areas ofEurope, while in other areas it is planted onlyin mixtures.

Other examples could be quoted, but theseperhaps suffice to point out the danger of un-planned efforts, without an adequate research

3 Timber 1?esources for America's Future (U.S.Department of Agriculture, Forest Resource Re-port No. 14), pp. 189 and 198. Apart from thetimber actually burned, growth loss is estimatedat over 40 million cubic meters.

169

basis, to raise forest productivity. But thelessons of these and similar experiences havebeen learned, and ever greater success attendsman's efforts to combat natural calamities inthe forest and to avoid disasters of his OW11.making.

The Rise of Forest Consciousness

The history of man's relationship to time for-est makes sorry reading a tale of wantonmisuse and reckless exploitation through mostof recorded history. Regions of barren des-ert, areas subject to recurrent flooding, bea,rwitness to man's past failure to recognize theprotective role of the forest, while areas of Woodscarcity where forests formerly grew emphasizethe high price which has to be paid for pastdisregard of the needs of future generations.

From time to time lone voices were heardcalling attention to the danger, and here andthere sustained efforts were made to maintainor re-establish the tree cover, though few ofthese endured. In China, for example, underthe Chu dynasty three millennia ago" Mountain and Forest Service " was establishedand forest administration and managementreached a high degree of efficiency.4 In India,during the Brahmani and Buddist periods, re-ligious considerations helped to preserve theforests. 6 In Western and Central Europe,from the Middle Ages on, protective measureswere taken from time to time, either to safeguardtimber supplies for particular industries, or topreserve hunting grounds for the nobility. Butin modern times, effective forest policies com-bined with scientific silvicultural managementbegan to emerge only a century ago andthis in Europe, where growing wood scarcityin many countries compelled action. Even thenthe main emphasis was on timber as a crop,on the need to utilize the forest interest whilemaintaining the forest capital intact. Recogni-tion of the non-crop functions of the forest, ofits influence on flood control, erosion, watersupply, came much later. Today hardly anycountry lacks a forest service, though in manycountries the means, both in material and man-

1 D.Y, Lin, " China " in A TVorld Geography ofForest 1?esources, edited by Stephen Haden-Guest[and others], Ronald, New York, 1956 (AmericanGeographical Society, Special Publication No. 33),pp. 529-550.

M.D. Chaturvedi, " India " in A World Geogra-phy of Forest Resources, op. cit., pp. 455-482.

power, available to the service, and the statu-tory powers it enjoys, are still far from adequatefor it to discharge its functions effectively.

If for many decades foresters were conserva-tive, this was a natural consequence of thecircumstances in which forestry as a professiongrew np. Professional foresters became cone- rn-ed to check abuse of the forest ; they pridedthernselves on taking the long view, safegua,rd-ing the interests of future generations. Some-times they were at odds with those who lookedto the forest as a source of necessary raw ma-terial, and the foresters and the forest indus-tries frequently found themselves in opposition.In recent decades an en.couraging change hascome about. On the one hand, foresters haveseen more clearly the importance of meetingpresent needs while safeguarding future needs,and the great strides they have made in silvi-cultural practice have multiplied the tools avail-able to do this. On the other hand, forestindustries themselves are increasingly takingthe longer viel,v, and in many cases have be-come the foresters' best allies in promotingsound forestry practice. In the pages whichfollow, this favorable evolution will be tracedin more detail.

THE GROWTH OF THE FORESTINDUSTRIES

Introduction

Much of the so-called industrial wood takenannually from the world's forests does notenter into factories at all. In 1955, for exam-ple, world industrial wood output as reportedto FAO amounted to some 900 million cubicmeters. Of this, around SO percent underwentprocessing in the major forest industries O;the remainder entered into final use substantiallyin round-wood form as mining timber, poles,posts, for direct use on farms, etc. havingundergone only rudimentary fashioning, eitherin the forest or by the final consumer. In-cluded among the SO percent which did undergotransformation in the forest industries wereconsiderable amounts which were processed on

0More accurately, forest products' industries, sincein literal terms a forest industry is one carried outin the forest, e.g., charcoal burning. Throughoutthis article, however, the term forest industries isused as a convenient shorthand for forest productindustries as herein defined.

170

relatively primitive ahnost " pre-industriallines, such as hewn or handsawn sleepers

and hardwood bolts.It is customary to draw a distinction between

the primary and secondary forest industries,the former operating on roundwood as rawmaterial, and generating products either forfinal use or destined for further processing inthe secondary forest industries, while the lat-ter further process the semiprocessed goodsdelivered by the primary forest industries. Thisdichotomy is not an ideal one, but it has itsconveniences. It is not ideal because the struc-ture of the forest industries is somewhat morecomplex than it might suggest : wood process-ing is not only one-stage or two-stage, there area number of " tertiary " forest industries ; theline between primary and secondary industriesis not al-ways easy to draw. Strictly speaking,pulp manufacture should be regarded as a pri-mary industry and paper and paperboard man-ufacture a secondary one. But in practice aconsiderable proportion of paper manufactureis integrated with pulp production, so that inthis article pulp and paper manufacture areconsidered together as one of the major primaryin(' us tries .

It is the primary forest industries, operatingon roundwood, which have a direct impact onthe forest ; the extent and nature of that impactis determined in the first instance by the activ-ity of the secondary forest industries and inthe last analysis, of course, by the size and pat-tern of the demand for forest products for finalconsumption. In the following pages attentionis concentrated on the primary -forest industries,and in particular on the four main groups : thesawmilling industry ; the pulp and paper in-dustry ; plywood and veneer manufactureand the board industries fibreboard andparticle board. The order cited correspondsto the order in which these groups have developedin the course of time ; it also corresponds tothe present-day order of importance as measuredeither by roundwood consumed, gross valueof output, or direct employment afforded.

Some estimated comparative figures for theworld's prim.ary forest industries in 1955 aregiven in Table IV-1.

While no great accuracy can be claimed forthese estimates, it is believed that they re-flect reliably the orders of ma,gnitude involved.They show that sawmilling is still the mostimportant primary forest industry, employingtwo thirds of the labor force, accounting for

TABLE IV-I. WORLD'S PRIMARY FOREST INDUSTRIES COMPARED (1955)

'Duplication arising from the use of wood residues is disregarded, 2Estimatcd cost of establishing in 1955 the capacityexisting in 1955. 2IncRules all sleeper production. °Includes production of dissolving pulp for all purposes, includingtextiles.

more than two thirds of the roundwood equiv-alent of output, and furnishing half the grossoutput by value. In terms of capital invested,however, it ranks well behind the pulp andpaper industry, though the latter employs littlemore than a third as many personnel. Com-pared with these two giants, the plywood andboard industries play a minor role.

These contrasts stand out even more clearly-if we compare some of the ratios involved(see Table IV-2).

TA13LE IV-2. SELECTED RATIOS: WORLD'S PRIMARYFOREST INDUSTRIES (1955)

Any comments on these figures must neces-sarily be very broad generalizations, sincewithin each of the four industrial groups thereare very wide variations in size, operating ef-ficiency, type of product and investment perunit of capacity. There are thousands of smallsawmills producing a few hundred cubic metersof sawn goods annually, with rudimentaryequipment ; at the other extreme, there are

171

many highly mechanized sawmills with an an-nual capacity of over 50,000 cubic meters. Thereare paper mills in different parts of the worldwhere the procedures differ little from thoseby which the Chinese made paper two millen-nia ago ; on the other hand, there are giant,fully automatized pla,nts, with annual capacitiesin the order of 200-300,000 tons, where it ispossible to walk the plant for hours and encoun-ter but a handful of skilled machine-tenders.

Yet, with all these qualifications, it is evi-dent that the pulp and paper industry is muchmore capital-intensive than its sister primaryforest industries, and yields a higher gross valueper unit of raw material. The type of woodraw material used by each industry differs. Onthe whole, the sawmills and plywood millsrequire more valuable species and larger di-mensions ; the pulp mills and board plantsoperate on smaller-dimensioned woods, do notmake use of high-value woods, and to an in-creasing extent are utilizing wood residues fromother forest industries and even residues fromforest operations. Thus, in terms of valueadded to the raw material employed, the pulpand paper industry has a lead over other indus-tries even more pronounced than is shown inTable IV-2, while board products come second,before plywood and sawmilling.

The four industry groups listed in the fore-going tables do not exhaust the primary forestindustries. Omitted are such importa,nt in-dustries as charcoal, wood-wool manufacture,and wood distillation. And quite apart fromwood-transforming industries, there are im-portant forest-based industries concerned withthe extraction and 'refining of tanning mate-ria,ls, resins, lacs, oils, and the like. In round

FOREST INDUSTRIESRoundwood

equivalent ofoutput

Gross VaiLleof output Investment 2 Labor force

Mill. nt' (r) % min. dollars % Mill. dollars % Millions %

Sawmilling 3 510 68 13 000 49 7 500 22 3.0 66

Pulp and paper 4 190 27 11 600 44 25 000 73 1.2 26

Plywood 29 4 1 200 5 1 300 4 0.3 7

Board products 11 1 425 2 450 1 0.04 1

TOTAL 740 100 26 225 100 34 250 100 4.6 100

FOREST INDUSTRIES

Grossvalue ofoutputper unitof raw

material

Invest-meatper

porsOncm-

ployed

Invest-ment

per unitof raw

material

Employ-meat

per unitof raw

material

Sawmilling. . . .

Pulp and paperPlywood

Board products

Dollarsper

ni' (r)

25

61

41

39

Thou-sand

dollars

2.5

20.8

4.3

11.2

Dollarsper as'

15

132

45

41

Numberper 1,000m' (r)

5.9

6.3

10.4

3.6

figures, it may be estimated that the primarywood-transforming industries emplo3r a,round5 million, while the secondary forest indus-tries furniture, container, box, match,and other woodworking industries, togetherwith the paper-converting industries employabout the same number. These figures ex-clude, of course, those who work in the foreststhemselves on felling and extraction. Theirnumbers vary with the season, but on averageit is probable that employment in the forestis roughly of the order of 5 to 6 million. Fi-nally, an estimated 1 to 11/4 million are engageddirectly in forestry.

The hnportance of the four industry groupsdiscussed in this article varies from region toregion, as may be seen from Table IV-3.

TABLE IV-3. REGIONAL DISTRIBUTIONOF PRIMARY FOREST INDUSTRIES IN 1955

(Measured by wood consurnption in million ITI3roundwood equivalent)

SOURCE : FA.0, Yearbook of Poreq Produc's ShUshes, 1957.'Includes roundwood equivalent of wood residues.

The four developed regions North Amer-ica, the U.S.S.R., Europe, and the Pacificwhich contain 30 percent of the world popula-tion, account for 85 percent of the sawmillingand plywood industries and 95 percent of theother two major forest industries pulp andpaper and board as measured by industrialwood consumption.

The final column is not, of course, an indexof consumption of forest products, since it doesnot take into account trade in processed goodsit is rather an indication of industrialization.Even so, it is not complete, since it concerns

172

only forest industries based on wood. A signi-ficant proportion of the manufacture of bothpaper and board is based OD non-wood materials

agricultural residues, annual plants, etc. --and these are slightly more important in thedeveloping regions. Nevertheless, this columndoes afford an indication of the extent to whichthe several regions turn their forest crop toindustrial account. The striking thing is thatper caput industrial consumption of wood inthe advanced regions is 16 times that in the lessdeveloped regions.

In time world as a whole, ;just over two thirdsof the industrial wood is consumed by sawmills,rather more than a quarter by pulp and papermills, while plywood and board plants togetheraccount for little more than 5 percent. Thepattern varies from region to region, however.The pulp sector is most important in NorthAmerica and Europe (each 35 percent of thetotal) and least important in Latin America andAfrica (each 6 percent). It is evident that ingeneral the more advanced the region, in termsof industrialization and living standards, thegreater importance does the pulp sector or theforest industries assume.

The Scumnilling Industry

The sawmilling industry liad its genesis inthe application of a saw blade for cutting alog imito boards. At first the blade was hand-driven, and was sometimes fixed into a frameto avoid betiding. Two men were needed tooperate it, one on a platform above the log,and one in a pit dug beneath it. By this" pit sawing " method, considerable amountsof sawnwood were produced. The method isstill in use today ; in various parts of the worldimportant quantities of tropical hardwoodsare pit sawn, and some of this pit sawn hard-wood even reaches the export market.

Water power and wind power replaced man-power in operating the one-blade frame sawat ami e,arly stage. The water wheel was adapt-ed to power the saw in Germany as early astime beginning of the fourteenth. century. Forseveral centuries time frame-saw type of sawmill,powered by water wheels or by Dutch wind-mills, dominated the sawmilling industry ; in-deed, no fundamental change occurred untilthe steam engine began to find practical ap-plication in time first half of the nineteenthcentury.

REGIONSaw-Illin-ing

Pulpand,a_Ito

-,,...,-,,?,,,,"' "-""

Boardpro-

ducts'Total

in'per

caput

North America . 210 115 16 5.5 347 2.09Europe 95 53 6 5.0 159 0.39U.S.S.R. 120 10 3 0.2 133 0.66Paci I ic 10 1 0.3 ll 0.75

Subtotal. . . . 435 179 25 11.0 650 0.82

Asia 45 10 2 0.2 57 0.04Latin America . 25 1 1 0.1 27 0.13Africa . 5 1 0.2 6 0.03

Subtotal. . . . 75 11 4 0.5 90 0.05

WoRLD 510 190 29 11 740 0.27

The water mills were mostly sin-all affairs,of limited capacity and requiring little invest-ment. In North America their best outputis said to have been little more than one cubicmeter of sawnwood per day. Being dependenton water flow, their location was restrictedin cold regions they could operate only part ofthe year. The advent of the steam engine, bymaking possible much higher capacities andliberating the sawmill from its previous loca-tional bonds, revolutionized sawn-timber pro-duction. The beginning of the large-scale SaW-mill .industry may thus be said to date fromaround the middle of the nineteenth century.With the introduction of steam power, andlater with the application of the internal com-bustion engine and electric power, sawmillingrapidly 'developed technically.

The original frame saw frequently with sev-eral blades added in parallel (the gang saw)

has retained its importance in stationaryhigh-capacity sawmills operating on mediumor small-sized roundwood.

Early in the nineteenth century another typeof saw blade made its appearance, first in Amer-ica and later spreading to Europe and otherparts of the world : the circular saw ; thiswas followed by a third type, the band saw,which began to find general application towardthe end of the nineteenth century.

In large modern sawmills various combina-tions of these different types of saw are fre-quently met with ; the first cutting usuallydetermines whether the combination is knownas a frame SaW, circular saw, or band-saw mill.

Each type of saw has its own special charac-teristics, and hence its own main field of appli-cation. In softwood regions the frame saw isbecoming more and more common in stationarymills ; wherever resources of large-sized vir-gin timber are giving way to second growth andplantation timber, as in the United States, itfinds increasing application. Where small localmarkets are concerned, and in circumstanceswhere it is more economic to take a portablemill to the forest, transporting sawnwood in-stead of roundwood, circular saws are gainingon frame saws. The exploitation of hardwoodresources, and especially of tropical hardwoods,gives -wider application for band saws.

The long-term evolution of the United Statessawmilling industry, has been uneven. Withthe advent of steam power in the 1850's,sawnwood production rose rapidly, reachingits peak at the beginning of this century. There-

173

after, sawmill output fluctuated considerably,consumption being sensitive to cyclical changesin economic,, particularly building, activity.Since the last war, output has been relativelystable, though at a level lower than that achievedin the peak year 1007.

Clearly, sawnwood production has not, in thelast four decades, kept pace either with the risein industrial output or with the increase inpopulation. Even when account is taken ofthe increa3e in net imports imito the UnitedStates, it is evident that sawnwood consump-tion per caput has declined considerably. Thereare several reasons for this. Accessible re-sources of large-sized virgin timber have beenworked out, \011ie productivity both in loggingand in sawmilling has risen only slowly ; thishas meant that sawnwood prices have risenrelative to the prices of other structural ma-terials. In many end-uses cement, bricks-,stone, steel, and more latterly plywood, boards,aluminium, and pla3tics have taken the placeof sawnwood.

This substitution has not always been dueto price. Urbanization and the trend to multi-family dwellings has favored other materials.Even where sawnwood has been retained, eco-nomies (e.g., smaller dimensions) have beenrealize,c1 in its use.

Consumption of sawnwood in a number ofother end-uses has been similarl3r affected, SOMe-times by the same fa,ctors, sometimes byspecial :factors. With the slowdown in railwayexpansion, for example, the demand for sawnsleepers now comes predominantly from re-placement needs, negligible quantities being re-quired for new track. At the same time preserv-ative treataLmt3 lengthen sleeper life. Thuswooden sleeper consumption in the 'UnitedStates fell by two thirds within the last threedecades.

The development of sawmilling output inEurope since the beginning of this centuryholds certain similarities. Here, too, there werewide fluctuations between the wars, and thoughthe general trend has been upwards, both be-fore and after the second workl war, the rise,has not kept pace with either industrial outputor population. If anything, the trend towardsubstitution has been even more marked, espe-cially in the postwar yeacs. It has been esti-mated, for example, 7 that sawnwood consumedper dwelling unit fell from 9.1 to 7.6 cubic

Trends in the Utilization of Wood and its Productsin Housing (UN/FAO, Genova, 1957), p. 7,

TABLE IV-4. SAWNWOOD PRODUCTION TRENDS BY REGIONS

SOURCES : FAO, European Timber Statistics 1913-19,50, pub. 1953.FAO, World Forest Products Statistics 1946-19,55, pub. 1958.FAO, Yearbook of Forest Products Statistics, 1957.Streyffert, rtirldens barroleogstillyamfar, 1931.

meters between 1950 and 1955. Since, however,new residential construction rose during thisperiod from 1.35 to 2.18 million dwelling units,total sawnwood consumed in new housing rosefrom 12.2 to 16.7 million cubic meters.

Current trends suggest that both in Europeand the United States sawnwood consumptionper caput will fall steadily in the coming years,with aggregate consumption remaining steady inthe United States and rising slightly in Europe.In all other regions of the world, sawmillingoutput continues to rise, the major part of theconsiderable increase since the Second WorldWar having occurred in the U.S.S.R. While aslowdown in the rate of expansion in the U.S.S.R.is foreseeable, production may be expected tocontinue to rise in other regions. Thus, theupward trend in world sawnwood productionwill probably continue in the coming years,although it is likely to remain below the increasein industrial output and population.

Sawmilling capacity is heavily concentratedin Europe, North America, and the U.S.S.R.,the three regions which encompass the greatconiferous belt of the Northern Hemisphere,containing 88 percent by area and 91 percentby growing stock of all the world's coniferousforests in use. Table IV-4 shows that these re-gions account for 85 percent of current sawnwoodproduction.

In recent years there have some markedchanges in the regional pattern of sawnwoodproduction.

174

TABLE IV-5. REGIONAL DISTRIBUTIONOF SAWNWOOD PRODUCTION, 1948 AND 1956

Apart from the striking advance of theU.S.S.R., it will be observed that the shares ofAfrica and Asia have improved, while thePacific Area has more or less maintained itsposition. The shares of Europe, North 0,ndLatin America have accordingly contracted.

Communications largely govern the locationof industrial sawmills. Mills operating on im-ported roundwood are generally situated in oraround the main ports, or within easy reachof them by road, rail, or water. Mills manufac-turing for export are also normally concentrat-ed near ports offering adevato shipping fa3il-ities, but of course they must also have easyand cheap access to their raw material sup -

plies, which normally means adjacency tofloatable waterways. It is this last factor

REGION 1013 1923-27 1937-38 1940 1948 1950 1952 1954 1950

Million (s)

Europe 45.9 52.4 56.7 49.4 52.5 56.4 53.9 59.9 61.4U.S.S.R. 11.9 12.6 33.9 19.6 32.7 49.5 60.5 69.0 75.2North America . . . 112.8 103.0 72.7 94.0 103.7 107.1 106.1 103.9 108.4Pacific 2.9 3.6 4.0 4.5 4.8 4.7

Subtotal 170.6 168.0 163.3 165.9 192.4 217.0 225.0 237.6 249.7

Latin America 7.5 7.3 8.0 8.9 9.2 8.8Africa 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.9Asia 11.6 15.7 19.4 23.6 25.4 32.9

Subtotal 20.1 24.1 28.6 34.1 36.4 43.6

WORLD 190.0 186.0 216.5 245.6 259.1 274.0 293.3

ITEM 1948 1956

Million ne

Sawnwood production 216.4 I 293.3

Regional share Perceai

Europe 24.3 21.0U.S.S R 15.1 25.6North America, 47.9 37.0Pacific Area 1.6 1.6Latin America. 3.4 3.0Africa 0.5 0.6Asia 7.2 11.2

which has determined the location of exportsawmilling, with the creation of ports and thedevelopment of new communities as corollaries.Portable sawmills, of course, operate in the for-ests, but here too adequate communicationsto the consuming centers must be availableunless a strictly local market is to be served.

Coniferous species account for four fifths ofall sawnwood produced. Conifers grown incool temperate or subarctic climates growin more or less pure stands, with straight steinsclear of nodes and branches. The wood isstrong in relation to its weight, and can be read-ily sawn and planed. illost broadleaved speciesare more durable and decorative, but they sel-dom occur in pure stands and vary much morein form and diameter. Extraction and process-ing costs are thus higher. Hence, for con-structional purposes, coniferous timber is prefer-red in most end-uses wherever it is available.Though there are notable exceptions (e.g.,eucalyptuses and poplars) most broadleaved spe-cies grow slower than conifers, reaching sawlogdiameter less quickly. The larger the diameterthe less the processing cost per unit, since thesmaller the proportion of edges and slabs. Inareas where sawnwood requirements have pres-sed heavily on the forest resources availablethere has been a distinct tendency to reduce theminimum diameter of log sawn. Thus in Ger-many, for example, logs down to 10 centi-meters diameter are sawn today, as comparedwith 20 to 30 centimeters 20 years ago.

In the world as a whole it is estimated thaton average a cubic meter of roundwood yields0.6 cubic meter of sawnwood. The actual yield inparticular circumstances may vary from below0.4 to 0.8, depending 011 species, diameter,and sawmill efficiency.

A sawmill requires a considerable area offorest to assure, its supplies. It is estimated,for example, that in Scandinavia about 14hectares of coniferous forest are necessary tosupply enough roundwood of sawlog size toproduce annuall:i 1 standard (4.67 cubic meters)of sawn softwood. In other words, a medium-class Scandinavian sawmill, with an annualoutput of 20,000 standards, needs approxi-mately 300,000 hectares of forest to assure itssupplies. It will probably draw its suppliesfrom a much larger area, since the forest areasfeeding the sawmills overlap considerably. Inforests where the growing stock and yield ishigher, a smaller drainage area will suffice.Thus in the Douglas fir stands of the Unite,d

175

States West Coast or in favored Central Euro-pean fir stands the same output may be ob-tained from 30 to 60,000 hectares.

Mills of this size, or greater, account for thebulk of sawnwood output in Northern Europeand for nearly all the export production. Butmost mills are much smaller. The 2,500 saw-mills recorded in the industrial statistics of thethree northern countries Finland, Norway,and Sweden in 1954 had an average annualoutput of only 1,200 standards, or about 6,000cubic meters. In addition, there are manythousands of even smaller mills which are re-corded only in periodic special surveys, as wellas domestic saws which escape record.

A recent detailed survey of the lumber in-dustry in New York State 8 revealed the follow-ing distribution (1952/53).

The 118 mills in the last class, though only7 percent of the total, produced 58 percent ofthe total output.

This distribution is not only typical of thelong-established sawmilling industries. A sim-ilar pattern is evident, for example, in thefollowing figures for Brazil

The small sawmills undoubtedly serve apurpose, providing the cheapest means of meet-ing a local demand for sawnwood where long-distance transport of logs or sawnwood is im-practicable or too costly. They can exploitareas beyond the physical or economic reachof larger undertakings. At the same time,they present a major problem in that they arelargely beyond control, often beyond record,and not particularly receptive to propagandaaimed at ensuring that their incursions on the

8Primary Wood Use in New York, State Univer-sity College of Forestry, Syracuso, 1957.

Annua/ capacity Number of mills(Thousand m3 sawn)

Less than 1 2 1591 and less than 5 2 9235 and less than 10 24410 and less than 20 14420 and less than 50 1350 and over 1

Annual production Number of mills(m3 sawn)

Less than 118 817118 and less than 475 334475 and less than 1 180 1891 180 and less than 2 360 99Over 2 360 118

forest do not diminish the fOrest's long-termproductivity since such exhortations usuallycall for a sacrifice of immediate profit prospects.It is among the scores of thousands of small-scale sawmills operating in the world toda3rthat there is the greatest need for educationand extension services.

It was mentioned earlier that a large propor-tion, around 40 percent on average, of the rawmaterial entering the world's sawmills emergesfrom the process in the form of slabs, edgings,sawdust, and shavings. A few decades agomost of this wood material was wasted - indeed,its disposal presented a problem and oftenadded to sawmill costs. Today most of this ma-terial, and even the bark, can be utilizedcertainly in areas where forest industries areconcentrated. Provided the material can beeconomically collected, i.e., provided the saw-mill is largo enough or sufficient sawmill ca-pacity is concentrated in a given lecality, theslabs and edgings can be chipped for pulp orboard manufacture and even the shavings andsawdust can be turned to industrial account.The possibility of utilizing sawmill residues hasconsiderably modified the economics of sai,vmill-ing in the developed areas of the world, andhas in many instances encouraged the integra-tion of forest industries.

The Pulp and Paper IndustryThe first technical revolution in papermaking

occurred 1850 years ago when Tsai Lun, a highChinese court official concerned with suppliesfor the Imperial Court, invented a papel madefrom hemp fiber, rags, and old fishing nets.Before that the Chinese - the world's firstpapermakers - liad utilized the waste fromsilkworm cocoons, and the product was expensiveand highly prized. The Chinese people havemade and used paper ever since, and still havethe world's biggest hand-made paper industry,based on ra,gs, straw, and bamboo.

It took a thousand years for the invention ofpaper to spread westward, through the NearEast to the Mediterranean, a,nd via Spain toWestern Europe, reaching Russia, and the Amer-ican colonies around the year 1700. As thedemand for paper grew, available supplies ofrags and other materials were increasinglytaxed until the middle of the nineteenth cen-tury, when the raw material basis was immeas-urably expanded by the invention and successfulapplication of processes permitting the mechan-

176

ical and chemical pulping of wood. Wood soonbecame the principal raw material for paper andboard manufacture, and today 96 percent ofall pulp for papermaking is made from wood -about one third by mechanical operations andtwo thirds by chemical or combined processes.The object of time pulping operation - a moreor less complete separation of the fibers in theraw material - can be achieved in two funda-mentally different ways : either by overcomingthe binding forces b3tween the cellulose fibersby mechanical action, or by chemically dissolv-ing the substances acting as binders. In re-cent years a number of processes have beendeveloped which combine the chemical andmechanical pulping operations with the objectof increasing the yield by the chemical processesand of broadening the raw material field forthe production of mecha,nical pulp. Their im-portance is steadily increasing, and will conti-nue to increase. The many processes availabletoday are very different in their technicalcharacteristics and papermaking possibilities, andabove all, in the variety of the raw materialthey can operate upon. In fact, the prolifera-tion of processes is a measure of the technicaleffort devoted to expanding time industry'sraw material base and to raising the yieldfrom its raw material. Moreover, these effortsmust be sustained if the world's future require-ments of pulp are to be met ; this much is evi-dent from a brief consideration of pulp and pa-per production trends over the last decades.

In 1956 -world wood pulp production was sixtimes as high as in 1913 ; between 1947 and1956 it approximately doubled. It is still heavily

TABLE IV-6. WOODPULP PRODUCTION TRENDS,BY REGIONS

REGION 1913 1925-27 1937 1947 1956

Million, nutrir tons

North America. 3.4 6.6 10.5 17.4 29.8Europe

of which :4.6 6.3 11.4 6.9 13.4

Three northerncountries . . . (6.8) (4.9) (8.2)

R 0 21 0.22 1.0 0.75 2.6Asia ....... 0.90 0.33 2.7Latin America . . 0.03 0.10 0.34Africa . -- 0.01 0.12Pacific Area . . . -- 0.16 0.47

WORLD . 8.3 13.1 23.9 25.7 49.7

concentrated in North America and Europebut a trend toward decentralization in the lastdecade is evident.

The rapid rise in pulp requirements since thelast war has surpassed all expectations. Forexample, the Preparatory Conference on WorldPulp Problems, convened by FAO in Montrealin 1949, after reviewing the world's prospectiveneeds for pulp products, estimated that by 1955pulp needs would rise by 37 percent over 1948,an annual rate of increase of 41/2 percentin fact, production and consumption over thisperiod increased at an annual average rate of7 percent.

Similarly, the FAO/UN Survey " World Pulpand Paper Resources and Prospects " underesti-mated both p::.oduction and consumption. Theforecasts contained in this report indicated anincrease in wood pulp consumption from anaverage of 37.1 million tons in 1950-52 to 50.5million in 1960-62, corresponding to an annualgrowth of 3.1 percent. In 1956 (midpoint of thesurvey decade); world wood pulp consumptionreached 49.5 million tons, which is close to theten-year estimate. Thus consumption actual-13r increased at an annual rate of 6.6 percent,more than double the rate forecast.

Many other forecasts, pertaining to particularregions and prepared by official and privateagencies, have been made ; all have beensimilarly outstripped by realizations. These con-sistent underestimations have arisen less fromany shortcomings in methodology than from thedifficulty of appraising accurately the rate ofeconomic growth in a rapidly changing world.The consumption of pulp and its products isclosely linked with the progress of the economygenerally. Comparative figures of per caputpaper and board consumption and of per caputnational income, for example, show very highcorrelations, both as between countries and forgiven countries in the course of time. It seemsreasonable to assume that, given sustained eco-nomic growth, pulp requirements will continueto grow at a minimum rate somewhere between4 and 6 percent. 9

Even the minimum figure 4 percentwould imply a world pulp need of some 100 mil-lion tons by 1975. Thus the present pulpwoodremovals of about 210 million cubic meterswould have to be raised to over 400 million cubic

9In tho period 1920-37 pulp production in NorthAmerica and Europe increased at an annual averagerate of 4.5 and 7.6 percent, respectively.

177

meters, of which the main part would be neededin Europe and North America. This will compela more intensive use of broadleaved woods anda more efficient utilization of forest and indus-trial waste, .as well as a determined effort toraise fellings of traditional pulpwood. At thesame time, it will intensify the problems of theless advanced regions Asia, Africa, and LatinAmerica which today d.epend on the a,dvancedregions for a major part of their pulp productsand for a goodly proportion of the pulp to feedtheir domestic production of paper and board.Moreover, it is precisely in these regions thatdemand is growing most rapidly. Obviouslythere must be some doubt whether Europe andNorth America will be able to continue to supplyother regions of the world with their growingneeds, even were those regions able to spendincreasing amounts of foreign exchange on im-ports of pulp and paper. It is clear that therapidly increasing importance of the pulp sectorof the forest industries will not only influenceforest policy and timber utilization in the cen-ters where the industry is today establishedit will also furnish a stimulus to, and at the SaniCtime create the economic preconditions for, theopening up of forests in the less advanced re-gions of the world. For the most part thesecontain species other than those which havebeen traditionally used in the areas where pulpmanufacture has so far been concentrated. Ithas already been shown, however, that technicalprogress has ma,de it possible to use almostany fibrous material for pulp-making, and far-ther technical progress can be confidently ex-pected in the years to come. The main prob-lems to be encountered are thus economic rath-er, than technical ; they are perhaps best sum-med up by the following quotation :1°

" There is every reason to expect that, givenproperly executed technical and economicplans, these large unexploited resources canmake a' vital contribution to living in whatare at present underdeveloped countries.There must be a period of trial, a period ofgroping, patient capital, but if the meansavailable are wisely used, there can arise apulp and paper industry [in these regions]that will be of world hnportance.

It is natural that the wood pulp industryfirst developed, and is still largely concentrated,

10 Raw Materials for More Paper, FAO Forestryand Forest Products Study No. 6, Rome, April 1953.

in regions where ample supplies of the speciessuitable for the early pulping processes arefound. But a number of other factors con-tributed to this concentration. Capital require-ments are heavy, and for most processesth.e economies of size are considerable. Thusthe need for an assured and substantial market(in early days only available in the industrial-ized countries) within easy reach is paramount.The need for capital, for adequate power sup-plies and for considerable quantities of cheapchemicals all favored the concentration of thepulp industry in the early days of this century.If decentralization is now taking place, it isprimarily because nations in the less advancedregions of the world are faced with rising papel'needs for educational, cultural, and industrialpurposes so that markets are gradually develop-ing capable of supporting an economic-sizedmill. At the same time, the early steps in in-dustrialization bring into existence oth.er es-sential factors such as power and chemicals.

Even in the older producing regions the lastdecade has seen certain important shifts in thedistribution of the pulp industry. In the UnitedStates, for example, there has been a very rap-id development of the industry in the Southbased cm resources of Southern pine. The Southhas now more than half the total United Statescapacity, and the proportion is expected toincrease. It i.s noteworthy, too, that alreadyin 1952 14 percent of the industry's pulpwoodsupplies consisted of broadleaved species, andthis ratio is expected to increase to 25 percentby 1975. In Europe there has been an increasein pulp production on the continent, muchof it based on broadleaved species ; however,capacity has expanded equally rapidly in thethree northern countries where new forest in-ventories have revealed timber reserves greaterthan previous estimates indicated. In the'U.S.S.R., too, the current Five-Year Plan pro-vides for a more rapid increase in pulp produc-tion in the Par-Eastern territories than else-where, but this is believed to correspond togeneral plans for economic decentralization rath-er than to any basic shift in the raw materialbase of' the industry.

The considerable economies of size in pulpand paper production have already been men-tioned. In the leading exporting countries,for example, the economic size for an integratednewsprint mill is now normally reckoned to beof the order of 150,000 tons annually. However,very many smaller mills are operating, and

178

successfully. This is simply because the in-fluence of locational factors (material, power,chemicals, market proximity) is so strong thatit can frequently offset the economies of sizein production costs. In Northern Europe to-day there are some 200 pulp mills, with a,n aver-age annual production of around 40,000 tonsin .North America 1,300 with an average annualproduction of 20,000 tons.

A newsprint mill of the capacity quoted ea,r-lier 150,000 tons requires annually around450,000 cubic meters o-f pulpwood. To assureits supplies on a sustained yield basis (assuminghalf the annual crop can be used as pulpwood)it requires a forest area, under Northern Europeanconditions, of approximately 350,000 hectares.Where growth is more vigorous, and especiallywhere forest management is directed to pulpwoodproduction, a smaller catchment area will suf-fice. These figures show that the forest oper-ations concerned in the provisioning of evena modest-sized mill, say 20-30,000 tons annual-ly, are formidable. They become even morecomplex if the pulping operation is based onmaterial drawn from heterogeneous broadleavedforests.

Pulp and paper manufacture is big business.A medium-sized integrated mill to manufactureannually 30,000 tons of fine paper may requirea capital of around 20 million dollars. Secu-rity of raw material supplies is essential whensuch sums are concerned. Profit margins arenot sufficient to allow of recourse to timbermining methods, implying high profits and quickrecovery of capital. This is the principal reasonwhy the pulp industry has become an importantfactor in forest conservation.

The Plywood and Veneer Industry

The art of veneer-making is very old. In an-cient Egypt, thin slices of veneer were cutfrom selected hardwood logs and placed byskilled craftsmen as cover leaves on high-qual-ity furniture. This essentially artistic use ofveneer remained the only use until the middleof the nineteenth century. A hundred yearsago, however, the rotary veneer lathe vas in-vented and it was also found that veneerscould be glued together to form panels of highstrength and wide dimensions. With thesediscoveries the modern veneer and plywoodinduAry was born, and it has since, especiallyduring the past 30 years, experienced a trulyspectacular rise.

Compared with solid sawnwood, plywoodhas many advantages. It makes a valuablefacing material not only for furniture but alsoas wall panels and as a construction materialwith any width of surface. A decided advan-tage is that plywood inherently remains fiatunder service conditions thus avoiding one ofthe greatest problems in sawnwood structureswhich often react adversely to changes inatmospheric conditions. In addition, plywooddoes not split easily and can be pressed intocurves more easily than sawnwood. The twofollowing main groups of plywood are producedcommercially : hardwood plywood for use insheets for decorative purposes, panels, doors,table tops, and the like ; and softwood plywoodused mainly for construction purposes. In bothcases, plywood competes with sawnwood andmore recently has been subject to competitionfrom board products.

The high quality raw material requirementsof the veneer and plywood industry meanthat only a small part of the timber in th.ewoods can be used for this purpose, and large-diameter logs have tended to become increas-ingly scarce. In Europe, for instance, it is unlikelythat the output of veneer logs exceeds one fif-teenth of the sawlog output, and it may evenbe considerably lower. In the old-growth Doug-las fir forests on the west coast of America,however, as much as 50 percent of the standis capable of being used for this purpose.

As a result of their higher quality and theirrelative scarcity, veneer logs are expensive, whichhas kept the price of plywood at a high leveland limited its competitive power. Therefore,the industry continues to make great effortsto reduce production costs by lowering the qual-

ity requirements for veneer logs. Machineshave been developed with higher productivitycapable of using smaller logs, and automaticmachines to cut out defects from the sheetsand to insert patches, and machines for edge-gluing and end-gluing sheets togeth.er have beendeveloped. Also, various kinds of combinedboards made partly of veneer and partly ofsawnwood (blockboards) or even metal or plas-tic have been introduced. Due to the introduc-tion of laminated veneer products, the industryhas been able to compete even with metals incertain markets.

Output of plywood before the First WorldWar is estimated at about 300,000 cubic metersper year. By 1938 it liad risen to 3 million cubicmeters. In 1946 it had returned to this figureagain, and has almost quadrupled in the lastdecade, with no interruption in the steady up-ward trend.

Though by 1946 world output liad returnedto the prewar level, this was only because theconsiderable expansion in the United States,Canada, and other regions compensated for thesetbacks experienced in Europe, the U.S.S.R.,and Japan. Though production in all these re-gions has since expanded far beyond the pre-war level, North America retains its place asthe leading producer, accounting for well overhalf the world total.

The bulk of North American production is ofsoftwood plywood, based on Douglas fir ; it isa utility plywood capable of economic applica-tion for a wide variety of constructional pur-poses. European and Soviet production is nine-tenths hardwood plywood, mainly birch, rath-er more expensive, but of better appearance.The recent expansion of the Japanese industry

TABLE IV-7. REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF WORLD PLYWOOD PRODUCTION

lEstimated.

179

REGION

1938 1916 1955 1956 1957'

1000 ni' % 1000 7it' % 1000 lit' % 1000 7I0 % 1000 ni' %

Europe

U.S.S.R.

North America

Japan

Others

TOTAL

1 090

885

820

207

38

36

29

27

7

1

1

510

252

990

67

196

17

8

66

2

7

1

1

6

950

049

245

683

623

19

10

59

6

6

1

1

6

910

122

575

852

661

17

10

59

8

6

2

1

6

100

200

650

950

690

IS

10

58

8

6

3 040 100 3 015 100 10 550 100 11 120 100 11 590 100

and the new industry developing in the Philip-pines are based on Philippine lauan logs. Origin-ally the Japanese industry was concentratedon Hokkaido, using domestic r a IV material.With the rising demand for plywood both forreconstruction and for export, and the diminu-tion in availability of domestic veneer-sized logs,the industry has come to be based 80 percenton imported lauan and the center has shiftedto Honshu where it has the advantage of theshipping facilities at Tokyo, Osaka, and Na-goya,.

The most important factor in the location ofplywood mills is the availability of large-diame-ter logs of good form, whether indigenous orimported. Like the japanese industry, muchof the industry in Western Europe is based onimported tropical hardwoods. These mills havebeen fed by selective extraction in the forestsof Asia, Africa, and Central America, and thistype of exploitation has often been prejudicialto the forests of these regions. Frequently thespecies desired are very scattered, and theirextraction has required long hauls and muchmanual labor, involving such high costs deliver-ed port that only precious woods could paythe cost of extraction. The cream has thusbeen skimmed from the forest, with damage tothe remaining growing stock and with muchwaste left in the forest as inevitable corol-laries. In certain tropical countries, e.g., Nigeria,important domestic plyi,vood industries havearisen, but these have been mainly directed toexport, local consumption remaining low or neg-ligible. Indeed, the type of plywood producedhas been too expensive and not well adaptedto the local market.

But a further development of plywood manu-facture in the tropics, with exploitation onmore rational lines, is by no means out of thequestion. Many of these forests contain a widerange of species of little present commercialvalue, with many trees of good size and form.These, converted into plywood and subjected tothe vatious inexpensive treatments now avail-able, could provide a cheap .and durable build-ing material capable of satisfying local require-ments. Indeed, there are many areas whereplywood manufacture presents a more promis-ing line of development than the productionof either fibreboard or particle board.

The postwar expansion of the plywood indus-try has been largely bound up with the improve-ment of glues and the development of surfacetreatments which has inade it possible to use

180

the product on an increasing scale for exteriorpurposes and for such special purposes as con-crete formwork. Continuous technical improve-ment will be necessary- if plywood is to with-stand successfully the growing competition ofboard products, as the diminishing supply oflarge-diameter logs, at any rate in the temperateregions, means that the industry's raw materialcosts are likely to increase.

The Board IndustriesFibre board

Fibreboard has been defined as " a sheet ma-teHal manufaAured from fibres of wood orother ligno-cellulosic material with a primarybond deriving from the arrangement of thefibres and their inherent adhesive properties."Fibreboard is a pulp product and its manufac-ture involves the application of one or otherof several specially developed methods of pulp-ing, mainly mechanical. Though fibreboardproduction is often pursued in association withother forest industries, the process and theproduct are specialized, and it is regarded as aseparate industry.

There are two main groups of fibreboardnoncompressed and compressed, commonlymarketed as insulation board and hardboard,respectively.

Noncompressed fibreboards are usually driedwithout pressure ; they are thus light in weight,porous and low in bending strength. Theyhave their main application as in-between orfacing sheet for insulation or as surfacing ma-terial where strength is not essential.

Large-scale commercial production of insula-tion board started in the United States in 1914and developed rapidly in the early twenties.In 1938, the world's total production of thisproduct amounted to 700,000 tons of whichthe United States contributed about 550,000,the three Scandinavian countries another120,000, the remainder being produced by Can-ada, the United Kingdom, Australia, and theU.S.S.R. 'Utilization of treated insulation boardas exterior sheathing in residential building wasa leading application of fibreboard at thattime. In most parts of Europe the war hamper-ed deVelopment, but the industry continued toexpand in Sweden and to a lesser extent inFinland and Norway. Between 1938 and 1948capacity in Northern European countries morethan doubled. In the course of the followingyears production of insulation board expanded

all over the world and reached in 1956 1.6million tons of which the United States sharehad, however, dropped to about two thirdswhile the European share had risen to morethan 20 percent.

The production of compressed fibreboard canbe traced back to as early as 1898, when aplant to manufacture "hardboard" was estab-lished in the United Kingdom. The firstmajor hardboard plant, however, did not comeinto production until 1926 in the UnitedStates.

Hardboards are rigid, durable, and find theirmain field of application in construction work.The process of manufacture starts exactly asthat of insulation board, i.e., the raw materialis first chipped and then pulped. According tothe type of board that is to be manufactured,certain chemicals may be added to the pulp,e.g., to increase water resistance, bendingstrength, or resistance to insects or fungi. Afterthe sheet is formed, however, it is dried be-tween heated steel plates under pressure.

Production of compressed board expanded inthe nineteen-thirties, Europe and North Amer-ica being the most important producers in1938, each accounting for 40 percent of theworld output. Production continued to grow inthe following years, especially in Northern andContinental Europe. By 1954 world output ofcompressed board liad surpassed that of non-compressed board. In 1955 Scandinavia andNorth America accounted for nearly 30 per-cent each of world production, and other Euro-pean countries for a further 25 percent.

The rapid growth in both branches of theindustry during the postwar decade is shownby the following figures

TABLE IV-8. GROWTH IN WORLD FIBREBOARDPRODUCTION, 1938 TO 1956

YEAR

1938

1946

1948

1950

1952

1954

1956

Compressed Non-compressed

'17iousand metric 1071,9

Total

125 700 825

510 810 1 320

715 1 145 1 860

965 1 085 2 050

1 085 1 150 2 235

1 460 1 400 2 860

1 780 1 590 3 370

181

The pattern of world production of fibre-board and the evolution of that pattern havebeen very similar to that for pulp productionthe same heavy concentration of production inEurope and North America ; the same depend-ence in other regions on external sources ofsupply. There has, however, been a certaindecentralization in the decade, as may be seenfrom the following table

TABLE IV-9. REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF FIBRE-BOARD PRODUCTION, 1938, 1948 AND 1955

Plant capacity varies, averaging 50,000 tonsper year in North America, and around 15,000tons per year in other regions. There is consider-able dispersion around these averages, however.Most of the mills built recently in NorthernEurope have been large-capacity mills.

The. trend toward larger capacities rests. onthe economies of size and increasing competi-tion, particularly in the export market. A fibre-board mill requires considerable investinent,though less than for a pulp and paper mill ofcomparable output, and capital charges form;an important part of total production costs,a share which diminishes as mill size increases.The raw material requirements are somewhatless exacting, though in Northern Europe thefibieboard mills compete with the pulp millsfor the available raw material, both roundwoodand industrial residues. One half of Swedishfibreboard production, for example, is based onsawmill residues. The fibreboard process canmake use of a large variety of species, andof both forest waste and industrial residues.Thus in many parts of the world the industrycan obtain its raw material cheaper than canthe pulp and paper industry.

Technical progress in the fibreboard industryhas made possible a reduction in the real price

Percent

North America . . .

of which United77 69 53

States (73) (62) (46)Europa

of which Scandina-via

21

(14)

28

(19)

38

(20)Africa 2U.S.S.R. 2Asia 1 1

Latin America 1

Pacific Area 2 2 3

REGION 1938 1048 1955

of its products over the last 20 years, that isto say, during a period when the real price ofsa,wnwood and plywood has been rising. It isthis price advantage, coupled with an ever-increasing range of applications as use practiceaccumulates, that has led to rapidly rising con-sumption of fibreboard. This rise, and the stillexisting disparity in cOnsumption levels, is re-flected in the following figures

TABLE IV-10. ESTIMATE'D FIBREBOARD CONSUMP-TION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES, 1948 55

Those disparities point to the great opportu-nities for expanding fibreboard consumption,though it would be unrealistic to imagine thatthe high constunption levels prevailing inNorthern Europe can ever become universal.

The real significance of the fibreboard indus-try for the forests lies in its raw materialrequirements. It can make use of material un-suited for sawmilling and plywood manufac-ture. In this it resembles the pulp industry,though under normal circumstances a fibreboardplant can operate economically on a smallerscale than can a pulp and paper unit, thusrequiring a smaller annual flow of raw material.Hence the fibreboard industry, in associationwith the older forest industries, presents a totalpattern of wood requirements which favorsthe integral utilization of the forest crop, andthereby facilitates rational and economic exploi-tation of the forest. This is the basic reasonwhy, when nei,v areas of forest are being open-ed up for exploitation, there is today a greaterdisposition than ever to think in terms of acomplex of forest industries rather than of a

1182

single venture. On the one hand, integrationoffers the possibility of a variety of economiesin the production of the several forest products ;on the other, the problem of sound forest ex-ploitation and management is simplified.

Particle Board

Particle board is a sheet material manufac-tured from small pieces of wood or other ligno-cellulosic material (e.g., chips, flakes, splinters,strands, shavings, etc.) agglomerated by the useof an organic binder, together with one or moreof the following agents : heat, pressure, mois-ture, a catalyst, etc. The particle board industryis the youngest of the existing forest industries,but its growth in the last decade has been phe-nomenal. The first plant to produce particleboard commercially was built in Germany in1941 ; it operated on spruce chips using a phe-nolic resin as binder and liad a daily outputof 10 tons. Soon many species besides sprucewere found suitable, including birch, beech,alder, and pine. The first three-layer particleboard, with coarse wood particles forming themiddle layer and thin flat particles for thestronger outer layers, was marketed in Switzer-land in 1945. In 1947, the first plant basedon flax was put into operation in Belgium ; ofthe roughly 200 board plants today in existence,about 15 utilize fia,x straw. The greater partof the raw material for particle board manufac-ture still consists of waste or residues fromother forest product manufactures, such asslabs, edgings, cut-offs, planer shavings, etc.

Particle boards are extensively used as corestock for veneer and other overlaid furnitureand as panel material, for flooring and forfacing concrete forms.

Tire tremendous growth .rate of this new in-dustry is evident in the production figures ofTable IV-11.

Europe accounts today for over two thirdsof all particle board produced, a pre-eminenceit enjoys in no other forest product. Currentexpansion plans suggest that Europe will con-tinue to dominate the pattern of world produc-tion. Practically the whole of European pro-duction is concentrated in the countries of con-tinental Western Europe, Western Germanybeing the world's largest producer. Thus, theworld pattern of this industry is, and seemslikely to remain in the near future, quite un-like that of any other forest product, the mainconcentration being in the timber deficit coun-

COUNTRY 1948 1952/53 1954(55

Kilograms per head

Sweden 21.8 19.5 20.0Norway 9.1 17.7 19.9Finland. 6.4 12.8 17.1Canada 6.9 10.6 10.9Australia 7.8 7.7 8.6United States 3.2 8.1 9.3Israel 2.9 3.8 6.2Netherlands 2.4 4.0 5.8Denmark . 1.0 7.9-United Kingdom. 1.6 1.9 3.9Belgium 2.3 3.3 3.3Austria 1.4 2.4 3.3France 0.8 1.5 1.9Germany, Western. 0.5 1.5 0.9Italy 0.6 0.8 0.9Japan 0.1 0.1 0.2

TABLE IV-41. ESTIMATED WORLD OUTPUT OF PARTICLE BOARD, 1950-56

tries of Western Europe. Similarly, in Asiaand Africa the production of particle board isconcentrated in Japan and the 'Union of SouthAfrica respectively, i.e., in the industrial wooddeficit, but economically advanced, countries.

The main factors in the rapid growth of theparticle board industry have been the need tofind a substitute for solid wood where that hasbecome scarce or relatively expensive, and thewill of operators to turn to profitable accountresidues from their forest product operations.

Consumption figures suggest that particleboard to SOIlle extent compensates for differ-ences in fibreboard consumption levels. Infact, in many applications fibreboard and par-ticle board can be used alternatively at thepresent time. Hitherto, particle board has com-peted mainly with plywood and blockboard and,to a lesser extent, with solid timber. The longe,r-term future of the particle board industrywill largely depend on its price trend relationto the alternative materials and the successachieved in the search for new applications.While the industry must inevitably encountercertain growing pains in the course of the nextfew years, its long-term future seems assured.

Th.e capital requirements for establishing aparticle board plant are not very heavy and,since) capital charges do not figure so stronglyin the pattern of production costs, relativelysmall plants can be economically viable. Thisindustry is more versatile than any other for-est product industry as regards it3 wood rawmaterial re,quirements. Providing a marketexists for its products, or can be developed, a

183

particle board plant in association with otherforest product industries can lead to produc-tion economies throughout the combination.This in turn reacts on the economics of opera-tions in the forest. Herein lies the principalattraction of the particle board industry.

Conclusions

The preceding sections have shown how themajor forest industries have grown up in turn,the pulp, plywood, and fibreboard industriesbeing successively added to the older sawmill-ing industry, and the latest addition parti-cle board emerging only in the last decade.Generally speaking, the more recent the develop-ment of the industry, the more rapid has beenits growth rate, as shown by the figures inTb1.3 IV-12. An exception to this general ruleis the plywood industry, the average growthrate of which has ex...;eeded 10 percent throughthe lart three decades. It has been alreadynoted that this expansion is likely to slowclown in the future, partly as the result ofdiminishing supplies of suitable logs, partlyas a result of fiercer competition from boardproducts.

While Table IV-12 exhibits clearly the contrastsbetween the several forest industries, it doesnot allow of any really valid comparison be-tween the long- and short-term growth rates foreach industry, since the longer-te,rm period en-compa,sses both the war years and the post-war decade. However, it is evident that therehas been a vigorous growth in all the forest

REGION 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956Rxpectedcapacityend-1958

Thousand cubic meter

Europe 10 40 80 120 270 450 775 2 092

North America 10 15 30 80 120 180 240 750

Pacific Area 2 25

Union of South Africa. 5 15 25 50 75

Far East 2 5 8 12 45

Near East 6 25

Latin America 5 16 65

U.S.S.R 80

WORLD 20 55 110 207 411 668 1 101 3 157

TABLE IV-12. AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATESOF THE MAJOR FOREST INDUSTRIES

industries since 1948, the year in which theseindustries had in general recovered to the pre-war level. These developments are plainly re-lated to the somewhat faster rate of generaleconomic growth which the world has experienc-ed since the last war. It seems safe to assumethat as soon as the present recession is over-come the problems which several of the forestindustries are currently encountering will largelydisappear, and the resumption of economic expan-sion will bring with it continued growth in all theforest industries, though growth rates may wellfall somewhat below those recorded in the lastdecade. Their demands on the forest will thussteadily increase. Though industrial wood sup-plies can be stretched by better utilization ofindustrial roundwood and the further diversionof fuelwood to industrial uses, these means alonecannot furnish all the additional industrial rawmaterial that will be required in increasingamounts. A forest policy based on sustainedyield, on keeping the forest capital intact, isnot sufficient. Forest policy must plan -for anexpanding yield, for the building up of forestcapital. Considerable areas of forest not hither-to exploited will require to be brought intouse ; new forest resources will need to be creat-ed ; a dynamic approach will be required inthe management of existing forests.

The disparities in the growth rates of theseveral forest industries also imply a change inthe pattern of wood requirements. The pulpand board sectors are expanding much morerapidly than is sawmilling, and this trend willcertainly continue. Thus an ever-increasingproportion of industrial wood will be required

184

in species and dimensions suited to these sec-tors. Hence, while efforts will continue on thepart of industry to enlarge the raw materialbasis, thus utilizing more rationally the thnberavailable in the forests, complementary effortsare required from those concerned with forestmanagement to ensure that the crop of the fu-ture will be adapted to the changing pattern ofindustrial needs.

To SOBle extent the several forest industriesare competitive with each other. Of recentyears, however, there has been a growing recog-nition of identity of interest, of the fact thateach product has its special qualities and itsparticular role to play in meeting the needsof an expanding world economy. This is to someextent reflected in indeed it is one of thecauses of the current trend toward integra-tion of the forest industries. It is also mani-fest in the growing number of applicationsin which two or more forest products are com-bined.

Finally, it has been noted that the raw ma-terial requirements of the various forest indus-tries differ, and that they are to a large extentcomplementary. This has opened the way toa more rational utilization of the forest crop,and has had a favorable impact on the eco-nomics of forestry.

THE IMPACT OF THE FORESTINDUSTRIES

The forest industries of the world are heavilyconcentrated in the coniferous regions of theNorthern Hemisphere. For most forest prod-ucts, coniferous wood is the most suitableraw material, lending itself readily to mechan-ical and chemical transformation. Moreover, theconiferous stands are less heterogeneous as re-gards species, density, tree size and forrn, andare hence more suitable for large-scale logging.The nature of the forests, however, is not thesole factor which has led to this concentration.It is in these very regions that industrializationhas proceded most rapidly in the last two cen-turies, bringing with it both a rapidly risingdemand for forest products and the tools forlarge-scale exploitation of the forest. -Until theseconditions were satisfied, vast areas of conif-erous forest even in these regions remainedvirgin and intact. There is a marked positivecorrelation between purchasing power and con-sumption of industrial wood especially con-

INDUSTRY Period Medium orlong term

Shortterm

Percent

Sawmilling 1925-56 1.41948-56 3.8

Pulp 1926-56 4.21948-56 5.5

Plywood 1926-56 10.21948-56 12.7

Fibreboard 1938-56 7.61948-56 8.1

Particle board 1952-56 61

TAI3LE IV-13. THE WORLD'S FOREST RESOURCES AND TI-IEIR USE

SOURCES : FAO, World Forest Resour rs, 1955.FAO, Yearbook of Forest Products Statistics, 1957.

'Removals 1955 in forest area in use. - aConsmnption figures 1954-56 average, wherever possible. Reporting countries only.

sumption of papel products, as may be inferredfrom Table IV-13. While adequate supplies ofconiferous timber cannot be regarded as a con-dition of progress, there is no doubt that theyhave facilitated progress in these areas of theworld.

The figures of total forest area per caputgiven in Table IV-13 show that, in relation topopulation, the world's forests are not very even-ly distributed between the regions. The dif-ferences are less 'narked, however, if accountis taken only of forest area3 already underexploitation. While Europe still ranks low, theU.S.S.R., North America, and the Pacific Arcastand at the top of the scale ; Africa and LatinAmerica, with the major part of their forestresources still untapped, assume a more modestranking. The advantages of the advanced re-gions stand out most clearly, however, if atten-tion is concentrated on the area of coniferousforest under exploitation. Europe, on this cri-terion, stands at around the world averagethe -U.S.S.R. and North America stand wellabove, while Africa, Asia, and Latin America,trail far behind.

But forest area is an inadequate measure offorest wealth. It is the climatic factors goveln-ing growth and the intensity of management

185

that determine what volume of wood a givenarea can furnish, while the pattern of demand,utilization practice, and technical developmentinfluence the proportion of that volume whichis used industrially. Thus North America andEurope show the higheA removals of industrialwood per hectare in the world. Still morestriking is the sharp contrast between .NorthAmerica, Europe, the U.S.S.R., and the Pa,cif-ic Area on the one hand, and Africa, Asia, andLatin America on the other, in terms of indus-trial wood remoVals per caput. This parallelsvery closely the contra-A shown in the lasttwo columns for per caput consumption ofsawnwood, and paper and board, respectively.

The relatively high figures for industrial woodremovals per hectare in Europe, North America,the U.S.S.R., and the Pacific Area suggest thatit is in these regions that the forest industriesimpose the greatest strain on the availableforest resources. While this is true, generallyspeaking, it is necessary to examine a littlemore closely the capacity of the forests to meetindustrial needs, and the conditions under whichindustrial exploitation takes place.

It is customary to lay stress on the need forachieving a balance between the annual incre-ment (growth) less natural losses on the one

rorest a,rea Removals' Removals' Consu notionper 1 000 capita'

REGION Conif-All Forests crous Sawn- Paper and

forests in use forestsin use

r lloUd InT=11 Total Ilullvlolsot(iiialwood

paper_board

.... Hectares per caput .... Cubic metersthcctare Cubic inctcrslcaput Zutberi cs Tons

Europe 0.3 0.3 0.2 2.5 1.6 0.7 0.5 160 37

USSR 3.8 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.6 1.6 1.0 380 26

North America 4.1 1.4 1.1 1.9 1.6 2.2 1.9 580 176

Pacific Area 6.7 1.3 0.1 1.3 0.9 1.4 1.0 400 68

Latin America 5.2 0.5 0.06 2.5 0.4 1.0 0.2 54 8.8

Africa, 3.9 0.5 0.01 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.05 20 2.6

Asia 0.4 0.2 0.03 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.05 30 3.8

World 1.6 0.5 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 150 29

WORLD TOTALS

Million hectares 3 840 1 140 603 - - - - -Million cubic meters. . . - - 1 598 886 - - - -

1280

27

'10% 20% 30% 40%

hand, and total removals on the other, theunderlying idea being that the growing stockor forest capital should be maintained intact.Thus removals should be limited to net incre-ment (the forest income, so to speak), ensuringth.at the forest will be able to provide a sustain-ed yield in perpetuity. This principle of sus-tained yield has come to play a major role inthe formulation of national forest policies ; itreceived international recognition when, on 7December 1951, ihe Conference of FAO adoptedthe formal declaration defining the principlesof forest policy, where it is said that " produc-tion should be organized in quantity and qual-ity, with a view to obtaining at least a sustain-ed yield as soon as practicable."

Where the professional forester is in a posi-tion to influence the course of removals, this isthe long-term principle which governs the ad-vice he tenders or the controls he exercises.The application of this principle, however, isno easy matter. If the forests over which hepresides have ami ideal composition in regard tospecies and age class, his task is relativelysimple. But this is the exception rather than therule. He will press forward silvicultural meas-ures to raise net growth by reducing naturallosses and increasing gross increment. The meas-

50%

186

s

2557

ASIA PACIFIC

13.7%AREA

2.2%

120 405

878

WORLD

,

60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

ures he takes to raise growth will depend on thea,ge and species composition of the forest withwhich he is concerned. In a virgin forest, forexample, a large proportion of the trees will havereached maturity, so that gross increment is low,since most of the trees will have passed the ageat .which their annual accretion of wood startsto diminish. At the same time, destruction bysuppression, insects, diseases, and old age isrelatively high. Net growth may thus be nilor negligible. When the forest comes underexploitation, the mature and over-mature treeswill be felled first. Removals will exceed netgrowth, while net growth will progressively riseboth by reducing natural losses and facilitat-ing the growth of the remaining trees and natu-ral regeneration.

In a young plantation forest, on the otherhand, growth will be rapid, though much ofthis growth will be valueless since it occurs onyoung trees of small diameter, not yet suitablefor utilization. In such a forest the cuts willbe kept constantly below net growth until ma-turity is reached, and only intermediate cuts,such as im.provement cuts or thinaings, will becountenanced up to the time of final harvest.

In a forest of normal age-distribution, the cut\Vill on average be regulated to net growth unless

FIGURE

NORTHAMERICA

17.1%

IV-3. Forest Area of the

(Million hectares)

LATINAMERICA

23.2%

World

AFRICA

_L1I1 Coniferous forests

Broadleaved forests

63

463 193

EUROPE

3.5% U.S.S.R.

20.9%

798

it is desired to change the composition of theforest, e.g., to replace a broadleaved forest byconifers or by faster-growing broadleavedspecies.

There are other complications. lit has alreadybeen mentioned that tree growth varies withthe age of the tree. The age at which maximumgrowth takes place, and the level of that growth,vary from species to species. It is evidentthat the yield of the forest will be greatest ifthe final cut takes place at the age when averagegzowth is greatest.

But maximum volume yield is not the onlycriterion to be taken into account in determin-ing the age at which trees should be felled. Theprice obtainable per unit volume varies withthe age of the tree, older (larger diameter) woodgenerally commanding a higher unit price.

This brief, and far from complete, accountof the factors which have to be taken intoaccount in determining cutting policies from thestandpoint of the forester is perhaps sufficientto illustrate not only the complexity of theforester's task, but also the invalidity of attempt-ing to compare removals and net growth.Were all forests " going concerns," with normalage distribution, such a comparison might leadto useful conclusions. But the vast majorityof the world's forests now being exploited arenot of this type. More usually they are virginforests, young plantations, or natural forests inwhich cutting, either uncontrolled or planned,has already taken place. Even where netgrowth rates have been calculated, these ratesgive no real indication of the long-term capac-ity of the forests.

Some useful comparisons can perhaps bedrawn by recourse to another concept : that ofpotential productivity. In a recent publicationS.S. Patersonn showed that the yields obtainedfrom high-class stands of timber in different partsof the world, all managed under optimum con-ditions, fitted very accurately a " potentialproductivity " formula based essentially ontemperature, precipitation, and insolation. Hewent on to calculate, on the basis of availabledata concerning these three factors, potentialproductivity in different regions of the world,in other words the timber growth that couldpotentially be realized if optimum managementconditions were ever established.

In recent months the Paterson formula has" S.S. Paterson, The Forest Area of the World and

Its Potential Productivity (Royal University ofGöteborg, 1956).

187

been discussed in scientific circles, but thoughthe actual formula has been criticized, the util-ity of this approach has received wide recog-nition. At the same time, Paterson himselfhas accepted the need for certain amendmentsto the original formula. The calculations ofpotential productivity for the several regionsmay eventually require revision, but theynevertheless provide interesting, and probablyvalid, comparisons. Taking potential produc-tivity per hectare in Europeas 100, the other

The greater potential per hectare in the for-ests in use in the last four regions contrastssharply with that in the predominantly conif-erous regions of the Northern Hemisphere.

We llave already seen (Table IV-13) thatactual removals per hectare vary considerablyfrom region to region. In round figures, againtaking Europe as 100, the regions compare asfollows

Thus Europe, with a potential lower thanany region save North America and theU.S.S.R., is actually obtaining more round-wood per hectare than any other region butLatin America and more industrial roundwoodthan any other region but North America.Europe, in other words, comes closest to realiz-ing its forest potential even though, as will beseen later, it falls far short in most countries.This, of course, is simply a corollary of theintensity of management in European forests.The comparison does, however, shed light onthe lag between actual removals and potentialin the less advanced regions, and this becomeseven more apparent if actual removals are

Region Total removals Removalsof industrial

wood

Europe 100 100U.S.S R 10 35North America 75 100Pacific Area 50 55Latin America 100 25Africa 40 5

Asia 40 20

regions of the world rank as follows

U.S S R 50North America 90Pacific Area 240Latin America 240Africa 240Asia 190

related to potential productivity. Once again thecomparison is with Europe, though it will beunderstood that in taking Europe as 100 thereis no implication that potential productivity isfully .realized in that region

Actual removals perhectare in rolation to

Region

This table makes it clear that the impactof the forest industries on the forest is mostintense in Europe, North _America and theU.S.S.R. It is with these regions, therefore,that the following pages of this section will bemainly concerned. This impact has had, and con-tinues to have, a different significance for theindustrialist, the professional forester, theforest owner, and the community as a whole.Their interests and their reactions are dis-cussed in turn below.

The Industrialist as Timber Miner

Timber is a crop, no less than wheat orpotatoes. Though it is normally harvested an-nually, it is not an annual crop. A tre,e maytake 30 to 300 years to reach maturity, thoughcertain species, under suitable conditions, canattain merchantable size in 6 or 7 years. Onthe other hand, a virgin stand of old-growthtimber, as has already been pointed out, willrequire exploitation at a rate many times theannual growth at any rate in the initialstages of exploitation.

The forest industries in the past have all toooften exploited old-growth timber in a mannersuggestive of mineral exploitation. Hundredsof examples could be cited, but perhaps theclassic example is furnished by the sawmillboom that swept over the North American con-tinent in the last century. Like the colonistson their arrival in the New World, the pio-neers in their westward trek over the UnitedStates were confronted with apparently inex-haustible reserves of timber which presented an

188

obstacle to agriculture and to community de-velopment. Requirements of constructionaltimber for towns and settlements rose rapidly,and a profitable business in exporting sawn andsquared wood developed alongside. In rapidsuccession the heavily stocked pine resources ofthe Emt C3ast fell to the axe. Unrestrictedfellings, with no thought for the consequencesfor the forest and the community, were therule. The largest sawmill townS in the worldgrew up in the NortheaTt, only to move west-ward toward the Great Lakes as the originalresources were exhausted and the populationmigrated. With each move technological prog-ress made it possible to speed up the rate ofexploitation. In the wake of the westward move-ment lay a trail of ghost towns, with scoresof abandoned sawmills, surrounded by arcas ofcommercially valueless forest or fully clearedareas incapable of natural regeneration.

From the Lakes, the weight of the UnitedStates sawmill production moved to the pinedistricts of the South, and filially, in this cen-tury, to the gigantic Douglas fir stands on thePacific Coast. By now, however, exploitationwas becoming less uncontrolled and was moreoften accompanied or followed by regenerativemeasures. Today the West Coast produces halfof the United States sawnwood, while similarstands in British Columbia provide 60 percentof Canadian sawnwood output.

Typical o:f the effects of this ruthless depic-tion is the case of Minnesota, where between the1860's and the end of the century sawnwoodproduction multiplied twelvefold but fell back -to less than the original level in the course ofthe next 40 years.

The story of forest exploitation by essen-tially timber mining methods in the UnitedStates is gloomy enough. But there is ampleevidence of analagous destruction in otherregions. The fore3t3 of Northern Europe haveexperienced similar, though less destructive,sawmill booms, though fortunately less sawtinibe,r was taken out, and enough left to ensureregeneration. In Russia, too, tne sawmills haveexhausted or seriously run down the timberresources in the more heavily populated ateasof central and south Russia, and in recentyears the industry has staallly shifted northand east. Tho geographical shift parallels thatexperienced in tne United Statos, bat, comingmany decades after, :forest consciousness hasbeen built up and the shift is taking place ina planned and conteolied fa3hion.

potential productivityTotal Industrial

removals removals

Europe 100 100U.S.S R so 70North America 85 110Pacific Area 20 25Latin America 40 10

Africa 15 2

Asia 20 10

INTor are examples ia other regions lacking,even though the sawmill industry is far lessdeveloped. Over-exploitation of teak in Thai-land, and of Parana pine in Bvazil at anyrato in certain arcas are cases in point.

It is easy to blame the sawmiller for hisruthless quest for profit, heedless of the conse,-quences of his activity for tito forest, for thecomnumity, and for the needs of posterity. Butit nnat be understood that in the early daysof industrial development the art and SCiSTICOof forestry was in its infancy. The function-ing of the forest as a SOUITO of timber cropswas but little understood, and the protectiverole of the forest scarcely recognized at ail.Sawmilling was virtually the only forest indus-try, and interest concentrated on saw timbe,r.The mature tree felled for sa,wing may havetaken a hundred years or more to reach matu-rity ; this is not a span which comes into thereciconing of the business man. Moreover, itmust be remembered that investment in sa,w-miffing is not particularly heavy. Given favor-able prices, it can be recovered in one or twoyears. This facilitates the abandonment of themill once its eatchment arca has been clearedand the, establishment of new miffs closer tothe receding resources. With the portable saw-mill this process is accelerated.

Industry Seeks a Sustained Crop

Gradually the industrialist has come to 1..eal-ize the need for a sustained forest crop. Thisincreasing realization, which has accelerated inthe last deca,dc,,, is due to a variety- of factors.In the sawmill industry itself there has been atrend toward larger units of operation, and aparallel trend t(»vard a higher capital/laborratio. With higher capital investment, thereis a natural tendency to seek longer-term em-ployment of capital equipment. The advanceof forest science has been accompanied by amore widespread, and more alert, forest con-sciousness. Most important of all, perhaps,been the emergence of the wood-based pulpand papel' industry.

The pulp industry, operating on small-dimen-sioned timber, has been able to follow in the tracksof the sawmill industry, using the smaller tim-ber, and even the felled residues left in theforest. It has been able to use as raw materialthe second-growth forests which have grownup even in badly treated coniferous forest ateas.

189

Trees reach pulpwood size in a fraction of thetime necessary to grow SaW thllber. Indeed,certain species in suitable locations can be f.ell-ed for pulping ill `d..X tO ten years. It has thusbee11 eav to realizo that a continuous supplyof pulpwood from a given forest arca can bereadily organized given adequate attention togrowing and harvesting praptices. The timespan involved is Olio cqi,pable of ready compre-hension by the individual operator, atril can bepla,nued for,

Moreover, a pulp mili involves very heavyinvestment. There can be no question of aban-doning this capital with. impunity. It is phys-ically possible to transfer a pulp mill, but thisis a very costly business, and possible sites arelimited by the need to assure adequate suppliesof water, power and other important productionfactors. All these facts combine, to providethe pulp and paper industry with a much greaterincentive to establish a long-term raw materialpolicy than is the case for sawmiiiing.

Even so, the pulp papel' industry, too, haspassed through the mining stage, though thesephases have been shorter, and less violent intheir effects, than for sawmilling. Generallyspeaking, however for the reasons citedpulp and paper industrialists have been more,readily disposed to accept the foresters' long-held view that the forest should fun.ction not asa mine but as a crop, and to plan their actionsaccordingly. Moreover, this disposition hasincreasingly communicated itself to the sawmilland plywood industries. This is partly be-cause in re,eent decades there has been a pro-nounced move toward the integration of theseforest industries, physically and technicallyas welt as from the standpoint of ownership,and partly because a recognition of the comple-mentarity of the demands for raw materialwhich the,se industries make, on the, forest facil-itates the economical production of a crop whichcan meet the-ir nee,ds in quantity and quality-.

Thus, in the course of recent decades, thefore,st industries have in many parts of thoworld developed from destructive agents ofthe forest to more conservationist and creativeeleinents, both in the forests from Ivhich theydraw their resources and in national forestry as

This fact receives recognition, for

example, in imber Resources for America'sFuture (p, 305)

" Although industry holdings comprise only13 per cent of the commercial fore6ti, they

include some of the most accessible, produc-tive and well-managed forests...

Forest industry may be of even larger sig-nificance through demonstration, educationand assistance to other private forest land01,71.10PS who supply most of the raw materialfor wood-using plants. The forest induAriesalso are in a position to influence the cut-ting practices of the independent loggingoperators who cut timber on farm and otherprivate forest ownerships for delivery towood manufacturing plants.

This is typical of the testimonial which for-est industries are earning in several parts ofthe world today. However, it should be clearlyunderstood that if the industrialist is changinghis spots, this is partly because the diminishingareas of old-growth timber now available havecompelled him, in self-protection, to take alonger VieW ; this evolution has certainly beenhelped by the development of forestry scienceand, last but not least, by the steady formationof an informed public opinion and alert forestconsciousness. A few decades ago the far-sighted forest industrialist vas a rarity. He isstill by no means the general rule, but he is morecommonly met with each year that passes.

The Forester's Battle for Recognition

The preceding paragraphs may conjure up inthe reader's mind a halcyon picture of the in-dustrialist and the forester living and workingin harmony toward a common goal. Thisis a false picture. Conflicts still arise, and ifthey are less bitter than in the past this isbecause there is on both sides a better under-standing of, and an increased respect for, theother's point of view. It is not the industrialistalone whose outlook has changed under the im-pact of events and extended frontiers of knowl-edge.

Forestry rnay be defined as the scientificmanagement of forests for the continuous pro-duction of goods and services. As the practiceof forestry develops, the forests come to belooked upon less as a natural resource (differ-Mg from some others in that it is renewable)and more as a crop, dependent in a large meas-ure on man'S knowledge and skill. However,forestry is not concerned exclusively with grow-ing timber as a crop ; forests contribute in manyother ways to the well-being of mankind, and

190

proper forestry practices assure the maintenanceand enlargement of these benefits too.

Man is not a conservationist by nature.Throughout liistory, so long as the existingforest has appeared adequate to meet currentand immediately foreseeable demand., it hasbeen exploited for immediate revenue with littleaccount taken of it.3 future productivity. Onlywhen it became apparent that current practiceswere endangering the future supply of goodsand services, were labor and capital directedto forest conservation.

As indicated at the beginning of this chapter,efforts to conserve the forests are not new.Some are recorded over 3,000 years ago. Fromtime to time efforts have also been made tocreate new forest resources. But it was onlywith the advent of modern forest sciencestill scarcely a century old that these effortsbegan to take a permarumt and enduring shape.It was natural that modem n forest science de-veloped first in Central and Western Europe,where the disciplines of a variety of sciencescould be mobilized to solve the dilemma ofrising timber needs and vanishing forests. Itwas perhaps fortunate that in the early daysof forestry, methods of estimating the extentof forest resources and their potentialities werefar Jess precise than they are today. Thismeant that in many cases though by nomeans in all foresters overestimated thedangers of the forests being depleted. Thussometimes the public conscience was aroused intime to save the forests from disaster, and inrecent years inventories carried out by mod-ern methods have revealed greater resourcesthan had been suspected.12

The forester has fought ami uphill battle forrecognition. He learned early to plan for along period ahead, and became accustomed tothe idea that, save in special cases, he himselfwould not see the final result of his work.Since bis mission was to safeguard the needs ofposterity against a host of insistent current de-mands for land, fuel, timber, food, etc.he has been in many respects a lonely man, aman set apart from the community. His Jaw-enforcement functions, where he has been ableto pursue his aims .with the full backing of

12 This is true of a number of countries whichhave a long forestry tradition. It should be observ-ed however, that inventories in less developed areashave, in general, revealed forest resources less abun-dant than liad hitherto been believed.

the 'all', :have not a ded to his popularity, norhave they endeared him to those with claimson the forest, whether legitimate or illecriti-z,mate. ft i.s small wonder that his work hasbrought him in the past into constant conflictwith forest industries. He has been accusedand the modern forester would concede not al-together without l:tistice of elevating theforest to an end in :itself. It .has been saidthat he has overlooked the econonfic functionsof th.e :forest, the part that the timber cropshould play in the national eeonoilly. It hasbeen said that many Of the best-managed standsto lvhich the :forester points with pride are inact overstocked and tie up a considerablea:mount of national capital while yielding littleor no interest. It has been said also that for-estry pays too little attention to the :require-ments of industry, both as regards qu.antityand quality, and that the methods of ha,rvest-in.g 'advocated pay greater attention to bnilog-ical than to economic factors.

In all thes-e charges there has been --- andperhaps still is in many cases -- an eler:1 tentof truth. Yet there is much that can be saidin extenuation. So long as forest mensurationwas subject to considerable error margins, solong as the range of silvicultural measures inthe forester's armory was limited, so long asthe public conscience was not a-wake, so long asthe forester stood -virtually alone against thosewho :would make war Oil the forest, the foresterhad ample justification for strict conservatism.

In recent decades, however, the situation hasgradually changed. This is partly due to themore general understanding of the role andfunction of the forest for which the foresterhimself can elaim much of the credit ; it is partlydue to the progress made in forest biology andtechnology, which has bah multiplied tic e toolsk1.1-, the forester's disposal and given hin increasedconfidence in their application ; and finally,i.t is also due in part to the grftwing maturityof the youngest branch. of :forest scienceforest ecoiwinics and the steady integrationof this branch -with. the other branches offorest science. Now that the rival interests inthe forest are increasingly disposed to take along-term :view of the forest, the forester himselfcan safely pay more attention tu the shorter-term needs of the forest, lie is today, as neverbefore, adapting his measures to ensure thatthe needs of the users, -whether in the shapeof timber crop, amenities, or other non-cropvalues, are met.

191

The Forest Owner

It must not be supposed that the forester'swrit is universal. Though in the course of thelast half-century he has gained in competence,stature, and influence, his power to shape eventsis limited by a number of :factors. Perhapsthe most important of those is :forest ownership.

Of the world's accessible forests, no less than80 percent is publicly owned.

The two regions of the world with the mostdiverse and highly developed forest industries

Europe and North America are also thetwo regions where the percentage of accessibleforest privately owned is greatest (see TableIV-14).

TABLE IV-14. 0 WNERSHIP OF ACCESSIBLE FORESTS

The 111010 fact of public O wnership in no senseconstitutes a guarantee that the forests are ade-quately serviced and that the professional .for-ester .has the means, in. personnel, expertness,funds, a,nd authority, to moderate the impactof :forest .industries. Indeed, the contrary isusually the case. The high percentage of forestpublicly owned in many of the countries in theless developed regions of the 'world reflects thewill of :those countries to ensure that these nat-ural resources be acknowledged as a nationalasset. For the most part, however, the forestservices are weak, thinly spread, and badlyequipped ; they are all too seldom capable ofassembling the basic data essential for theformulation of a ferest policy-, let alone ensuringthat such a policy is implemented. Whereindustrial exploitation is taking place, it ismainly being carried out by industrialists orlogging contractors holding concessions from

Europe 132 59 2 71 54720 720 o

North America. 333 171 162 49Latin America . 323 192 1 130 40Africa 252 244 3Asia 280 252 , 1 27 10Pacific Area . . 16 12 4 24

WORLD . . 2 056 1 650 4 402 19

REG ION

Totalacces-

i bleRm.:4a yea

Public-ly

owned(Stateand

com-munal)

Ownedby

institu-tions

Privateforests

Privateforests

asper-

cent-age ofacces-sible

forests

Hill/ an hectare. Percent

the public authorities, often on a long-termlease. The problems of extraction are frequent-ly formidable, and the public authorities,anxious to derive revenue from idle, unexploitedassets, are usually in no position to stipulatelogging methods and to insist on regenerationmeasures.

The situation in the public forests of Eurc.tpeand North America is better, but it was notalways so. 'Progress, however defined, bringswith it an incessant increase in public expendi-ture. It has been all too easy for govern-ments, central and local, to turn to the publicforest domain as a source 6f easy revenue, espe-cially Nvhen forest industries and logging con-tractors, check in hand, have emphasized th.eextent of idle, unproductive foreSt assets andh.ave indicated their readiness to take theirchecks elsewhere. The long-termo concessionof large areas of public forest to itninstry forunrestricted fellings .was a characteristic of the" IÏIiIIing era " of forest exploitation. It isstill the dominant method of timber sale inCanada, where 83 percent of the accessibleforest iS pUbliely Owned. .Flo \\WIC'', in thecourse of the last half-century, and particularlyin the last two decades, proper managementhas become a common condition of lease, anddevastation of the forest a much rarer conse-quence of exploitation.

Quite apart from the concession of leases onpublic forest land to industry, there has beenin many regions a strong tendency to sell publicforests to private owners. In Europe, through-out time nineteenth century the area of publicforest steadily diminished as tract after tractwas disposed of for agricultural or buildingpurposes. Often the timber was heavily cutor even completely cleared before the land wasreleased. In the 'United States it has beenpart of government policy to transfer certainlands to private ownership as rapidly as pos-sible. Thus of the 585 million hectares towhich the Federal Government acquired titlein the course of the growth of the United States,by 1953 no less than 71 percent or 420 mil-lion hectares had passed into private owner-ship through public and private hand sales,sales and grants to individuals, states, andcorporations. Much of this land was forested,and one effect has been the proliferation of for-est tracts too small for efficient management.Thus in 1953, 34 percent of all United Statescommercial forest land was held by farm-ers, and a further 27 percent by other pri-

192

vate, non-fore,st industry, owners. These fig-ures may be compared with the 13 percentowned by forest industries. Of the privately-owned forest roughly one third (i.e., aboutone fourth of all commercial forest land) washeld in lots of less than 100 acres. The averageholding of the close on 4 million owners in thissize group was 37 acres. A further 30 percentof the commercial forest area was held in lotsof from 100 to 5,000 acres by 630,000 forestowners.

Small forest holdings by private forest own-ers are characteristic of many other countriestoo. In Western Germany, 42 percent of the pri-vate forest area consists of holdings of less than10 hectares. In Austria, Finland, and Irelandholdings of less than 100 hectares account fortw(.) thirds or more of the private :forest area.The situation is very similar in most Europeancountries, always excepting those which haveadopted ii SOCialitit fit:rut of econoiny.

lit is the small private forest owner whopresents the professional. forester -with his great-est problem. In the publicly-owned forestsof Entupe and North. America managementpractices today are on the whole good. Theirdomains are not usually of the best, since theyoften contain the least accessible and poorestsites ; in many cases they have acquired devas-tated hindi for afforestation and reforestationpurposes. Much of the effort of state forestservices has to be devoted to rehabilitationmeasures and the building up of timber reserves.

13ut the small farm forest, even though itmay be favorably situated and relatively wellstocked, is not usually well managed. The verysize of the holding precludes scientific manage-ment, even if the farmer or small privateowner has the will, the expertness, and themeans to manage his woodlot scientifically.Normally, he looks on his woodlot partly as asubsidiary source of income, partly as a stockor raw material for his domestic use, and partlyas a capital reserve. When bills accumulate,when capital is needed for agricultural installa-tion, equipment, latid improvements, etc., thereis a great temptation to make, inroads intothe forest capital. On a small holding the con-cept of sustained yield is hard to grasp, whilethe sense of private property makes the needsof future generations weigh lightly againsturgent current needs. 'Though relatively smallinvestments normally suffice to ensure regen-eration Ot stand improvement, these investmentsare apt to rank far behind agricultural invest-

ment in priority, since the latter show quicker,more visible, returns. The temptation for thefarmer-forester is especially great when ex-panding timber industries, in quest of additionalraW material supplies, send stumpage pricessoaring ; the sale of standing timber seems aneasy way of earning money.

Education, extension work and the promotionof co-operatives all help to improve the manage-ment of small woodlots, and these activitiesare perhaps among the more important carriedout by forest services. It is a slow and thank-less task, since in few cases has public opinionevolved to the point where it is willing to endowthe forest service with the authority to imposesanctions. The carrot in the shape ofsubsidies, low-interest loans, free or cheapnursery stock, free technical advice, etc. maynot be more effective than the stick of licensingfellings, exacting penalties for bad practices,and th.e like ; but at the present time it is moreprevalent. Because so large a part of the nationalforest assets rests in the small, privately-ownedforest, this is a sphere which must receive increas-ing attention.

For many years private associations and publicforest services were alone in their efforts topromote better practice in private woodlands.But since the war the forest industries havealso taken a hand. This most encouragingdevelopment, very marked in the United States,springs from the recognition by the forestindustries of the fact that these woodlands willconstitute, for many generations yet, the mainsource of industrial :raw material. A far-sightedprocurement policy must therefore ensure thatforests in this category, too, be managed alongenlightened lines. Demonstration, education,and assistance) provided to private owners bythe forest industries is likely to increase.

The Forest and the Community

The community's interest in the forest needsno underlining. The timber crop is a matterof concern to the community as well as to theindustrialist. But it is the community whoseinterests are most vitally affected by the non-crop functions of the forest. If the recreationalvalues of the forest are destroyed or inipaired,it is the community that suffers. If the loss oftree cover leads to soil erosion, uncontrolledflooding, avalanches, lowered water tables, it isthe community that eventua,lly pays the penalty.

It has been noted earlier that no less than 80

193

percent of the world's accessible forest is publiclyowned by nations, states, provinces, and localcommunities. This is due only in part to aconviction that a resource provided by natureshould be owned and operated in the interestsof all rather than confer benefits on the fewin the main it has its roots in feudal tenure sys-tems, royal reservations, and the like. Butthe disposition to confirm, or make over to,public ownership of forests in States whichhave newly acquired independence or in Stateswhere the political and social order has changedrests also on a growing recognition of the inti-mate way in which the forests are boundup with agriculture and the life of the people.In the course of the last decade, statutes anddecrees in a number of countries have proclahnedpublic ownership of many forests whose title'NVaS uncertain.

In Europe and North America the long-termtrend has been in the other direction ; as earliernoted, public forests today account for half orless of the accessible forest in these regions.Every forester :in these regions will concedethat much remains to be done, even in the publicdomain, to ensure that these forests are man-aged in a manner entirely consonant with theshort- and long-term interests of the community.This is not only a 'natter of the resources inmen and money available to the forest services.It is also a matter of scientific knowledge, andtechniques ; more and more effort is beingdevoted to research and experiment, both silvi-ctiltural and in the field of utilization, and theeconomic aspects of timber growing, timberextraction and timber marketing have neverreceived so much attention as they are doingtoday. It is a matter, too, for closer co-oper-ation between foreStry, agriculture, economicministries, and planning authorities, to ensurethat the various land needs of the communityare harmonized in an integrated land-use policy,and here considerable progress has been madein recent years.

The major problem in these two regions,however, remains the private forests. Someof the difficulties have already been referred to,but it should be observed that already particu-larly in Europe the community has gone along way toward ensuring, whether by educa-tion and persuasion or by enforcement, thatthe present and future needs of the communityare not overlooked. The reasons are not farto seek. Europe has 'very little forest in rela-tion to population a mere 0.3 hectare per

head. It is highly developed economically,and has a high per caput requirement of for-est products. The natural growth capacityof the soil and climate is low lower thanthat in any other major :region save the U.S.S.R.'Yet, over a :relatively long period, the forestshave produced more \yowl per hectare than anyother region. Output per hectare has steadilyincreased, and there is every reason to supposethat this :increase will continuo.

This coukl only have been achieved .by thewidespread amplication of sound forest policiesand high standards of silviculture, and clearly,in view of what has been said above, these inu.sthave been applied to private as well as publicforests. It is therefore worth examining in alittle titore detail how this has come about.

:Forest regulations, implying a recognition ofcommunity :interest, date back many centuriesin Europe, long before forest science had evolvedto the point :where really scientific :forest poli-cies could: be devised and applied. Before theFrench. Rev:olution there existed in utiany COun-trios an astonishing volume of ineticulous ruloson forest practice and wood Me, including silvi-cultural methods. It is true that for the mostpart these laws, rules, ..bact orders went unob-served, and had very little impact on the woodsthemselves. What is important to note is thatparliaments and absolute monarchs recognizedthe community's interest in the forest. :Enforce-ment was difficult, partly because forest scienceWaS not su fficiently advanced, partly becausepublic understanding of the issues involvedhad not reached the point where a cli.matefavorable to enforce.ment WM created. Theimpact of the French Revolution and the eraof laissez-faire weakened the effect of such reg-ulations as existed, and time industrial revolu-tion, with its accompanying rise; in the demand:for timber, slackened the 'remaining :restrictionsand ushered in a period of destructive forestexploitation. But though many small fOreStSWere cleared or seriously overcut, the demanclsof the 11CAS, tintes Were fre(111.0.11tty re,SiSted. COM-mercial pressures often failed to overcome in-nate, conservative instincts. On both publ.icand private lands substantial planting programswere undertaken.

In isolated a:reas restrictions on fellings andcutting practices remained in force, but forthe most part they wilted a:way under economicpressures. However, in the course of the nine-teenth century the community interest graduallyreasserted itself, and private forest owners were

194

increasingly coaxed, cajoled, or compelled toimproVe their practice ; at the same time for-est science, gaining in precision as well as con-fidenee, vas 'better able to indicate what neededto be done and how it should de done.

The most common practice in guiding pri-vate forestry in Europe is to safeguard the for-est area by insistence on regeneration. ; badcutting practices may be liable to penaltiesin a few instances, as in Great Britain and somecantons of Switzerland, fellings of all or ofcertain categories of timber require specificofficial authorization. In some cases the lawis directed to the owner of cutting rightsmostly it is directed to the forest owner. Insome countries the -forest authority reserves theright to impose management plans in caseswhere poor practices persist.

Taxis and levic;s on the sales of timber orforest property are sometimes imposed as ameans of building up a fund to finance forestrytraining, forest research., afforestation, and re-forestation, provision af seeds and plants, -forestroads, etc. Loans, subsidies, tax exemptions,as well as technical advice and materials, allplay th.eir part in encouraging improvements inprivate forestry.

In the United States the community interestasserted itself somewhat later, and the " cutout and uno ve Illahods of industry Avereallowed to persist until late in the nineteenthcentury. In 1891 the President was autharizedto withdraw " any part of the public latid whollyor in part covered with timber or undergrowth.as :forest reserves, and the ne,w trend in UnitedStates public opinion about the basic functionof the forest datos from around this tinte.1911 the Federal Government was allo:wed topurchase private :lands for protection purposes,and in 1924 also for timber production. Thearea of commercial :forest now publicly ownedgives the :Forest Service, a vast field for propermanagement and great opportunities for provid-ing ami example for private forest owners.

Enforcement procedures play a minor role,in the United States. The main weaponis education, and this has beemt carried out ona very broad scale. Once public opinion is con-vinced, action is facilitated. Yet the task isimmense, as it must be with so large a propor-tion of commercial forest land in the hands (.4millions of small owners. Thus, in spite of theextension services built up by universities andFederal and state forest services, supplementedin a few instances by co-operative movements

among forest owners, the latest available figuresshow that 59 percent of the cut on farm wood-lands was only of low or medium productivity,as compared with 23 percent on industrial and20 percent oil public, -woodlands.

In the past the :forest meant different thingsto the industrialist, the forest °Want', the :fores-ter, and the community. Their 'respective in-terests often clashed. Today, under the in-fluence of economic pressures, growing knowl-edge, wider :understanding and a strengthenirtgsense of community. SOMO of these conflictshave disappeared, -while others have becomeblunted or have shown themselves capable ofadjustment. The professional forester long con-sidered himself the only true custodian of thecomniunity interest. Today he is a wiser amihappier man: -wiser, in the sense that he realizesthat his training does not of :itself enable or en-title him to judge the validity of all claims onthe forest ; :happier in the sense that the otlierinterests in the forest are beginning to sharewith him t.he burden of responsibility in mak-ing the best use of this renewable :resource.

The Integration of InterestsThe century-old history of ntodern forest in-

dustries has left heavy scars in the forests ofthose lands where they have assumed impor-tance. 1..'he inroads of the forest industrieswere preceded by other influences destructiveof the forests affriculture and the need forti Un ber for fuel, mines, rail-ways. All these in-fluences have operated during the last centuryalongside the growing forest industries. Thus,even were adequate statistics of forest area,standing stock, and yield available over theperiod dining whieh the :forest industries havedeveloped, i.t would be in:I:possible lo isolate andquantify the impact oh the latter. It i.s onlypossible to show in very general terms the na-ture of that impact by reference to scatteredexamples for which data exist or can be esti-mated and by referente to what is knownabout the state of the forests today.

The foregoing pages have stressed somemight say overstressed the neW spirit that isabroad today, and the reasons why one mayhope that lessons have been learned from theerrors of the past, asid that:the impact of the:forest 'industries on the forests .itt the future islikely to be more beneficent than destructive.But the emphasis is a deliberate one, and isaccorded not so much because a progressive

195

and enlightened attitude is fully typical of for-est industries today as because this representsa new and significant element in the total for-estry picture which is destined to play ati evermore important role. This i.s perhaps a boldassertion, but it is based on the fact that newattitudes discussed in these pages do not springfrom altruism or from any mysterious conversionhut front steadily accumulating economic pres-sures and a growing :recognition of long-termeconomic interest. These pressures are manifestin a variety of ways, and the moves towardintegration -- in its -widest sense are equallyvaried.

The acceleration in economic growth rates isbringing in its train rapidly rising needs forindustrial wood. These rising demands comeup against limitations in time amount of indus-trial timber available or in the amount -whichcan be economically extracted. The law ofincreasing costs focuses the attention of all onthe value of timber as a ra \V material and onth.e need to ensure its rational use. Full em-ployment policies have helped to improve the:rewards of labor and this, too, has liad its in-fluence on the price of timber, since 'roundwooddelivered to the mili has a ltigh labor content.

The response of the forest industries hasbeen to undertake a variety of actions design-ed to secure their raw material supplies andto make the best use of the supplies available.Technical progress has in some cases enabledthem to broaden their tan' material basis, mak-ing use of species, qualities, and dimensionshitherto disregarded. The pulp iiislustries, forexample, utilize increasing volumes of temper-ate hardwoods and resinous pines ; th.ey can ac-cept material 'which hitherto would have beenclassed as forest waste, useable only as :fuel..Industrial residu OS in Sa MIN and ply-woodMilis are collected and pulped in con:sic:hirablevolumes, and in some countries the price porunit velum.° of slabs and edgings is approach-ing that of ruin' pulpwood. With a growingshortage of quality veneer logs, the plywoodmilis accept smaller dimensions, peel to a smal-ler core, and by means of patching machinesproduce marketable plywood from material thathitherto would huye been rejected. The IlICWparticle board industry operates on forest and*ndustrial waste, as well as tin a wide varietyof rciundwood species. fact that the sever-al :forest industries can be :largely complemen-tary in th.eir raw material requirements hasled to integration, ensuring the optimum eco-

nomic utilization of the forest crop as a whole,including residues. To ensure raw material sup-plies, the industries have acquired forests them-selves, sought long-term concessions, and encour-aged better practice among private forest °WOOFS.

On the other sirle, public forest authoritiesas well as private forest owners acting in asso-ciation have, to ensure the best markets fortheir crops, established forest industries them-selves or acquired .interests in existing forestindustries. Both sides promote and supportresearch and experiment over a wide field: woodproperties, silvicultural methods, logging tech-niques, utilization practice, and industrial tech-niques.

Alongside the integration of forest industriesand the knitting together of forest and forestindustry interests, a certain improvement hascome about in the lot of the forest worker,with better accommodation, community devel-opments, added facilities for training, morestable conditions of employment.

Meeting Future NeedsTwo questions naturally arise. Are the

world's fore,sts capable of meeting the growingdemands which future economic growth willimpose upon Olean ? Can the forest industriesbe relied upon to play their part without jeop-ardizing the forest resources?

An indication of the extent to which indus-trial wood needs have grown in the course ofthe last four decades .is afforded by the figuresin Table IV-15.

The combined industrial wood requirementsof Europe and North America rose from 351 to551 million cubic meters, or by 57 percent,between 1913 and 1956. The rise has beenparticularly spectacular in the postwar decade,and even more pronounced in other regions. Thusbetween 1946 and 1956 world industrial woodneeds tose from. 5S9 to 917 million cubic meters.It is evident that, given sustained economicgrowth., a total world requirement of industrialwood of the order of 2,000 million cubic metersby the end of the present century is well withinthe bounds of possibility.

There can be no doubt of the capacity ofthe world's forests to furnish these require-ments. Even if we, leave out of reckoning the2,000 million odd hectares of forest presentlyclassified as inaccessible and the OSO mil lionhectares of accessible forests not yet und.er ex-ploitation, there is ample evidence to showthat the 1,100 million hectares of forests alread.yin use are potentially capable of satisfying thisdemand. It is of some .interest to compare forselected countries the actual gross increment inforcsts already under exploitation with the pro-ductivity that the climate and soil is potentiallycapa,ble of yielding given opthnum conditions.

Thus, even in Europe, where forests havelong been under proper management and themost intensive silviculture is practiced, the mar-gin for improved yield is considerable. It fol-lows that the margin in other 1.'egions is consid-erably higher.

It must not be supposed, however, tha,t thegap between the actual and the potential can

TABLE IV-15. RECORDED ROUNDWOOD REA OVALS, TOTAL AND INDUSTRIAL Wool), 1913-56

196

R.tatIONTotal removals Of which, italustrial wood

1913 1938 1916 1956 1913 1938 1916 1956

llillion cubic meters

Europe 261 303 299 303 116 170 154 195North America 273 261 353 416 235 210 281 356

Total 534 564 652 719 351 380 435 551

U.S.S.R. 186 328 80 220Latin America 176 179 22 29Africa,Asia

99202

102227

539

1086

Pacific Area 14 28 8 21

Total 1 329 1 583 589 917

TABLE IV-16. GROSS INCREMENT IN FORESTS INUSE COMPARED WITH POTENTIAL PRODUCTIVITYIN PRODUCTIVE FORESTS, IN SELECTED COUNTRIES

Somums : Increment : FAO, World Forest Resoa:rees, 1955.Productivity : S.S. Paterson, The Forest Area ofthe World a'ad its Potential Productivity, 1955.

1The increment and productivity figures are not fullycomparable because they do not always relate to the sanle area,.

be diminished with ease, still less that it canever be closed. Intensive forestry requires heavyinvestnient, both in labor and materials,and an adequate supply of professional skills.The cost of the additional inputs has to bebalanced against the market value of the sup-plementary yields they will generate. In otherwords, the problem of raising output from exist-ing forests is essentially a problem of foresteconomics. Herein lies the explanation for theincrea,sing attention given to this branch offorest science and for the intimate relationshipwhich is growing up between the silviculturist,the wood utilization technologist, and the for-est economist.

Remains the question of whether the forestindustries can raise their capacity to matchrising demand without leading to local over-taxing of the forest resources. Of this, too,there can be no doubt at any rate in thelong term and considering the world as a -vhole.The la,st decade has seen the most vigorous ex-pansion of the forest industries in history. Rap-idly as demand has risen, both the invest-

197

ment capital, and the necessary specializedequipment have been forthcoming to ensurethat capacity has not lagged far behind con-sumption. The process has not been entirelysmooth. When the upward curve in demandhas wavered, as it did in 1952 and as it is doingin some regions today, temporary excess capa-city has arisen. But in the future, as in thepast, this is likely to be swiftly absorbed. Amore disquieting :feature of the expansion isthat it is not taking place sufficiently rapidlyin those; regions -where, in relative terms, de-mand is rising most rapidly. Thus many coun-tries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America arestill " underconsumers " of forest products (inrelation to their national incomes) because theystill lack either sufficient indigenous capacity orthe means of importing all the :forest productsthey could absorb. Lack of capital is obviouslyone reason for this relative lag. 13ut another,and perhaps equally important reason, is thatthe introduction of modern forest industries incountries which are still underdeveloped indus-trially, where the raw material differs in many.respects from that traditionally used in theestablished centers, and where the conditions ofextraction are entirely new, poses a variety ofeconomic problems, and notably questions offorest economics, whose solution cannot behastened without running the risk of creatingunviable concerns. There will always remainthe danger that developing countries with ani-pie timber resources may, in order to attractindustries and valorize their forest assets, betempted to offer concessions on terms which arenot consonant with good stewardship of theforests. The " cut out and 1110170 011. " methodsof exploitation may thus be reproduced inother .regions of the world. But though thisis still a danger, it is perhaps a less seriousdanger than it would have been a short decade,ago. On the one hand, the investments neces-sary to establish modern forest industries com-pel entrepreneurs to envisage longer periods ofstable operation, with secure material supplies.On the other, the rise in forest consciousnessand in understanding of the multiple role ofthe forest, both by governMents and by theman in the street, is not confined to the world'sdeveloped regions.

Cuide metels with barkper hect are .PC1'Cant

Europe 2.5 4.6

Austria 3.3 5.4 61Czechoslovakia 3.7 5.2 71Denmark . 6.9 nearly

tooFinland 2.0 3.3 61France 3.0 5.9 51Italy 2.7 6.1 44Norway 2.5 4.6 54Polami 2.2 5.0 44Spain 0.4 3.4 12Sweden 2.8 3.7 76United Kingdom 3.2 7.5 43Yugoslavia . . 2.3 5.8 40

COUNTRY OR REGION i; rossincrement

Potentialproduc-tivity

Grossincrement

aspercentage

ofpotentialproduc-tivity,-

COMMODITY

WheatBarleyOatsMaizeRice (milled equivalent)

Sugar (centrifugal)

Citrus fruitApplesBananas

Vegetable oils and oilseeds (oil equiv-alent)

Animal fats

CoffeeCocoaTea

Tino1W)acco

Cotton (lint)Jute.Wool (greasy basis)Rubber (natural)

Milk (total)Meat 2Eggs

Index of all farm products

Forest Products

RoundwoodSawnwoodPly wood

Wood pulpNewsprintOther paper and board

ANA EX TABLES

ANNEX TABLE 1-A. ESTIMATED WORLD' PRODUCTION OF MAJOR COMMODITIES

'1 4693266.4

8.6

199

1943149 - 1952153 - 100

85 100 1 111 1 115 118 117

Million cubic meters

1 550 i 598274.0 285.5

9.3 11.0

Million metric tons

1 600290.0

11.4

'Excluding U.S.S.R., Eastern Europe, and China. - ,Beef and veal, mutton and lamb, pork. -- '1953.

1 570280.0

11.5

1934-38 1948-52 1954/55 1955/56 1956/57 1957/58

SiliCon MCI?* 107?-.5

95.0 113.5 118.7 123.4 123.3 122.428.5 36.0 44.8 46.4 52.5 49.737.5 42.5 42.3 45.7 43.8 40.894.1 119.6 123.1 129.8 136.1 137.670.2 74.8 82.2 87.6 92.1 88.2

20.0 26.4 31.4 32.0 33.5 35.6

11.1 15.1. 17.7 18.1 17.9 17:311.0 12.6 13.8 12.8 14.6 9.08.1 11.2 12.2 12.3 12.7 12.7

9.2 11.6 13.2 13.4 14.7 14.93.01 4.20 4.58 4.94 5.26 5.14

2.41 2.25 2.48 2.86 2.60 2.980.74 0.76 0.82 0.83 0.91 0.760.47 0.57 0.67 0.70 0.70 0.71

18.0 17.6 21.1 21.3 20.6 16.1.1.96 2.46 2.81 2.88 2.93 2.76

5.31 5.75 6.47 6.80 6.50 6.031.95 2.03 1.68 2.32 2.30 2.231.51 1.58 1.76 1.81 1.90 1.910.96 1.74 1.85 1.95 1.91 1.93

193.6 204.8 226.5 229.1 233.8 241.826.9 30.5 35.7 37.4 39.0 39.25.82 7.49 8.69 8.83 8.99 9.10

839.1 42.4 46.6 49.7 50.239.8 10.4 11.2 12.0 12.3

838.5 40.8 16.4 47.7 48.9

ANNEX TABLE 1-B. WORLD TRADE' IN MAJOR COMMODITIES

lIncluding imports into the rest of the world from the U.S.S.R., Eastern Europe, and. China, but excluding imports intothese countries. - 'Oranges and lemons only. - 'Excluding imports jeto Malaya and Singapore for re-export. - 'Beefand veal, mutton and lamb, pig meat. - 1953. - ,Excluding U.S. trade with its territories.

200

COMMODITY 1934-38 1948-52 1954 1955 1956 1957

Million metric tons

IMPORTS

Wheat and wheat flour 16.13 25.23 22.59 23.75 28.12 28.50Barley 2.70 3.58 5.47 4.79 7.07 6.51Oats 0.86 1.33 1.48 0.94 1.22 1.42Maize 9.88 4.79 4.91 5.15 6.05 6.69Rice (alined equivalent) 8.55 4.32 4.68 4.60 5.51 5.45

Sugar (raw equivalent)6 9.38 10.76 12.09 12.75 13.16 14.05

Citrus fruit 2 1.72 1.80 2.50 2.64 2.23 2.55Apples 0.67 0.50 0.61 0.73 0.80 1.04Bananas 2.43 2.34 3.00 3.03 3.03 3.27

Vegetable oils and oilseeds (oil equiv-alent) 4.66 3.67 4.49 4.66 5.02 5.17

Coffee 1.62 1.90 1.82 2.04 2.24 2.24Cocoa, 0.64 0.66 0.69 0.67 0.71 0.69Tea 0.40 0.42 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.53Wine 1.82 1.61 2.37 2.77 2.55 2.94Tobacco 0.49 0.49 0.55 0.59 0.58 0.58

Cotton (lint)2.77 2.14 2.52 2.30 2.59 2.83

Jute 0.73 0.77 0.84 0.92 0.89 0.82Wool (actual weight) 1.07 1.07 0.98 1.07 1.15 1.20Rubber (natural) 3 0.98 1.58 1.66 1.82 1.71 1.74

Meat (fresh, chilled, frozen)4 1.16 0.90 0.87 1.01 1.21 1.33Eggs (in the 0.33 0.27 0.36 0.38 0.39 0.42

EXPORTS

Roundwood '18.4Million, cubic

21.3

meters

27.0 26.9 26.5Sawnwood '28.7 39.1 35.7 32.3 32.3Plywood '0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2

Wood pulp 56.0

Million, metric

6.9

tons

7.6 7.8 7.6Newsprint 55.9 6.2 6.6 7.0 6.9Other paper and board '2.2 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.5

ANNEX TABLE 2-A. WESTERN EUROPE: PRODUCTION OF SELECTED COMMODITIES

201

'Beef and veal, pig meat, mutton and lamb. - 'Includes Eastern Europe. Figures refer to calendar year and prewarfigures to 1938.

Commoprry 1934-38 1948-52 1954/55 1955/56 1956/57 1957/58

.11111lion netric tom

WheatRyeBarleyOatsMaize

31.077.499.08

16.449.73

30.326.65

10.9314.847.15

35.707.65

13.7214.588.55

37.806.70

14.7414.789.71

32.047.14

19.0416.0010.11

38.207.22

17.5813.3811.99

Sugar (centrifuga]) 4.02 5.13 6.55 6.87 6.49 7.10PotatoesCitrus fruit

69.871.99

76.162.10

81.042.63

73.262.51

84.631.85

78.682.49

Apples 7.42 8.73 9.50 8.71 10.28 4.26Olive oil 0.81 0.86 0.86 0.69 0.91 0.99Animal fats 1.04 0.99 1.14 1.18 1.24 1.29Wine 14.13 13.09 15.33 16.08 15.59 11.40Tobacco 0.19 0.25 0.29 0.34 0.30 0.33

Milk (total) 77.02 77.00 89.42 88.56 90.62 96.38Meat' 8.56 7.51 10.24 10.52 10.73 11.19Eggs 1.95 2.10 2.65 2.70 2.76 2.81

L948149-19'203=100

Index of all farm products . . 93 100 1151

116 I 116 117

FOREST PRODUCTS 2 n etric Ions

Sawn softwood (mill. standards) . . 10.24 9.87 10.72 11.13 10.95 10.47Sawn hardwood (mill. m3) . . . 9.07 9.08 9.82 10.60 10.50 10.70Plywood (mill. m3) 1.09 1.27 2.02 2.13 1.91 2.10Fibreboard (hard and insulating) . 0.17 0.67 1.05 1.19 1.31 1,41Wood pulp (chemical) 6.67 5.94 7.62 8.33 8.63 8.98Wood pulp (mechanical) 3.95 3.45 4.38 4.65 4.94 5.14Newsprint 2.80 2.33 2.86 3.12 3.42 3.50Other paper and board 8.29 8.85 12.11 13.18 13.57 14.55

ANNEX TABL 2-B. WESTERN EUROPE : EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF SELECTED COMMODITIES

'Includes Eastern Europe. - 'Beef and veal, pig meat mutton auci lamb.

202

COA ODITY 1934-38 1948-52 1954 1955 1956 1957

Million metric toms

CROSS EXPORTS

Wheat and wheat flour 1.47 0.76 2.30 3.39 2.30 2.41.Sugar (raw equivalent) 0.84 1.35 1.65 1.81 1.54 1.45Citrus fruit 1.18 0.91 1.26 1_41 0.85 0.85Apples 0.19 0.31 0.41 0.66 0.53 0.72Wine 0.50 0.46 0.78 0.78 1.00 0.81Bacon, ham and sake(' pork . 0.26 0.14 0.27 0.29 0.28 0.291.11;,rgs (in the shell) 0.20 0.17 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.30Wool (actual weight) 0.23 0.11 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.11.

Million cu ic meters

Coniferous logs' 2.39 1.71 0.88 0.92 0.70 0.72Broadleaved logs' 0.50 0.45 0.67 0.94 0.66 0.65Pulpwood 3.03 3.53 4.11 5.74 5.22 5.02Pitprops 1 3.16 3.00 2.44 3.00 3.03 3.12Sawn softwood' 13.86 12.66 14.88 15.39 14.52 14.82

Miliion metric tons

Wood pulp' 4.55 3.51 4,39 4.70 4.97 4.82Newsprint' 0.92 0.87 1.02 1.12 1.29 1.27Other paper and board_ 1 1.20 1.51 2.24 2.46 2.47 2.68

GROSS IMPORTS

VVheat and 1.1»heat flour 11.95 14.42 12.88 13.21 15.78 13.90Barley 2.41 2.53 3.96 3.57 5.06 4.77Mai7e 8.46 4.03 4.25 4.51 5.01 4.80Rice (unified equiva ent) 1.31 0.37 0.42 0.59 0.59 0.48Sugar (raw equivalent) 3.46 4.23 3.78 4.06 4.40 5.37Vegetable oils and oilseeds (oil

equivalen t) 3.00 2.53 3.02 3.11 3.41 3.49Oranges 1.28 1.33 1.92 2.05 1.72 1.95Coffee 0.69 0.48 0.61 0.67 0.75 0.75Cocoa 0.36 0.33 0.40 0.39 0.39 0.40Tea 0.26 0.23 0.28 0.26 0.27 0.31VVine 1.68 1.39 2.00 2.39 2.10 2.50Tobacco 0.37 0.34 0.39 0.41 0.40 0.41Cotton (lint) 1.75 1.40 1.57 1.42 1.51 1.72Rubber (natural) 0.36 0.59 0.72 0.81 0.78 0.80Aleat (fresh, chttled, frozen) I . . 1.13 0.82 0.77 0.92 1.12 1.17Canned meat 0.08 0.18 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.14Bacon, ham and salted pork . . 0.39 0.22 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34Butter 0.58 0.39 0.32 0.39 0.44 0.45Cheese 0.23 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.30 0.30Eggs (in the ghell) 0.31 0.21 0.28 0.31 0.32 0.34

ANNEX TABLE 3-A. PRODUCTION OF MAIN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN EASTERN EUROPE, U.S.S.R., A.NDMAINLAND CHINA

SouRcE : :Based generally on the official statistics of the countries concerned.'Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Eastern Germany, Hungary, Poland, and Romania. - 2Wheat, rye, barley, oats, and maize.

- 'Thousand million eggs. - 'FAO estimate. FOE estimates for the U.S.S.R. are slightly higher. - ,1910. --- °PAO estimate .

ANNEX TABLE 3-B. EXPANSION OF TICE CULTIVATED AREA IN TILE U.S.S.R.

0110p

Siberia andKazakhstan.

SOuRCE : Based generally on U.S.S.R. official statistics..Main areas where new lands were brought under cultivation.

Total U.S.S.R. Percentage increase1953 to 1956

COmmonlry Prewar 1950-53 1951 1955 1956 1957

Million metric tons (lo less otherwise specified)

Easlern Europe

Wheat and rye 22.5 19.4 23.0 21.4 24.7All cereals'Potatoes

38.056.0

37.364.1

44.251.6

38.566.2

46.6

Sugar beet 21.5 23.5 24.0 19.7Milk 20.5 92.2 23.4 23.6Eggs' 10.0 10.5 11.3 12.7

U.S.S.R.

All cereals4 580.0 81.0 82.0 103.0 123.0 100.0Sugar beets 17.5 22.5 19.8 31.0 32.5 39.3Milk 533.6 35.9 38.2 43.1 49.1. 54.7Meat 54.7 5.2 6.3 6.4 6.6EggS3 512.2 13.8 17.2 18.5 19.5 21.4Cotton (raw) 2.2 3.8 4.2 4.0 4.5 4.4Flax (fiber) 0.64 0.17 0.18 0.31 0.43 0.36Wool 0.16 0.21 0.23 0.26 0.26

Mainland Chilta

Paddy "50.5 63.8 70.8 78.0 82.5W heat 22.6 17.0 23.3 22.9 24.8 . . .

All cereals 697.9 127.9 143.4 155.8 160.7 6160.0Cotton 60.7 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.4 61.3Soybeans 69.9 8.9 9.1 9.1 10.2

1953 1956 1953 1956 1957 Siberia andKazakhstan

TotalU.S.S.IEt.

Million hecta) es Percent

Total crop area 30.0 56.6 157.2 194.7 193.2 89 24Total grain 22.3 42.9 106.7 128.3 126.4 92 20

Wheat (13.5) (32.1) (48.3) (62.0) (69.5) 138 28Maize (for grain) -- (0.1) (3.5) (9.3) (6.1) -- 166

Potatoes and vegetables 1.2 1.4 10.3 11.6 11.9 17 13Industrial crops 1.4 1.5 11.5 13.1 12.4 7 14Forage crops 5.1 10.8 28.7 41.7 42.5 112 45

Potatoes

Vegetables

1-1- ggs

ANNEX TABLE 3-C. ESTIMATED UTILIZATION OF SOME AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN THE U.S.S.R.

Commonrry

Meat (live weight)

Milk

Year

1940195319561957

104019531956

194019531056

1940195319561957

1940195319561957

1940105319561957

Totalproduction

80.080.0

123.0100.0

3(96:5)

3(14.3)

7.50.4

10.7

33.636.549.154.7

12.216.110.521.4

204

Total

10.813.720.4

Quantities marketed

Statecollections

metric tons

38.3 ... ...35.8 31.1 4.661.2 54.1 7.1... 36.7 ...

12.9 8.5 4.412.1 5.4 6.715.7 9.2 6.5

6.1 3.0 3.15.1 2.5 2.66.0 3.8 3.1

4.2 2.0 2.25.4 3.4 2.06.2 4.2 2.0

4.8

6.510.617.320.5

2.72.63.3

Otherquantitiesmarketed'

4.33.1.3.1.

9.513.516.2

Productionremainingon farms2

42.044.062.0

3.34.04.5

22.822.828.7

Thousand million, eggs

SoUncE : Based generally on U.S.S.R. official statistics.'Principally free market but including also some sales to consumers' co-operatives. - quantities used for live-

stock feeding, seed, etc., and also sales on the rural free markets. - 3Probably biological yield.

Grain . . .........

ANNEX TABLE 4-A. NORTH AMERICA : PRODUCTION OF SELECTED COMMODITIES

205

COMMODITY 1934-38 1948-52 1954/55 1955/56 1956/57 1957/58

Sfili ion ctric tonsWheatOatsMai7e

33.8065.6053.20

44.4652.3082.36

35.1825.1978.24

38.8928.1182.84

42.9324.9788.47

35.8624.9287.19Rice (milled equivalent) 0.62 1.25 1.89 1.65 1.45 1.27

Potatoes 11.94 12.83 11.41 12.14 12.97 12.67Citrus fruit 3.62 6.41 7.32 7.47 7.56 6.51Vegetable oi s and oilseeds (oil equiv-

alent) 1.19 2.66 2.86 3.20 3.66 3.38Animal fats 1.30 2.37 2.57 2.78 2.93 2.80Tobacco 0.62 1.02 1.10 1.04 1.06 0.84Cotton. (lint) 2.76 3.09 2.97 3.19 2.89 2.38Milk (total) 54.44 59.59 63.20 63.78 64.93 66.07Meat 8.08 10.85 12.45 13.21 13.81 13.45Eggs 2.42 3.78 3.95 3.94 4.02 4.03

191109-1952153 - 100

I-n(1ex of all farm products . . . 73 100I

104 j 109 114I

109

3fUtiOn 71 etric tons

FOREST PRODUCTS

Sawn softwood (mill. standards) . 11.86 18.36 18.43 19.79 19.28 17.43Sawn softwood m3) . . 12.08 18.55 17.80 19.37 18.20 14.78Plywood (million rn3) 0.82 3.49 4.99 6.24 6.58 6.00Fibreboard (hard and ins luting) . 0.64 1.21 1.53 1.65 1.73 1.60Wood pulp (chemical) 5.20 13.70 17.02 19.16 20.64 20.08Wood pulp (mnechanical) 3.44 7.23 8.32 8.87 9.17 8.92Newsprint . 3.38 5.74 6.51 6.92 7.33 7.36Other paper and board 10.05 20.50 23.09 26.85 27.11 26.37

ANNEX TABLE 443. NonauT AM1E c. PORT A PORTS OF SE' CTED COMMODITIES

206

Exeluding imports from United Stat ts territories.- 'Oranges and lemons only.

Commoorr 1934-38 1948-52 1954 1955 1956 1957

Million, metric tons

GROSS EXPORTS

Wheat and wheat flour 6.15 18.63 13.36 13.74 22.07 20.33Barley 0.50 1.44 2.15 2.96 3.56 2.55Maize 0.80 2.31 1.96 2.77 3.02 4.52Rice (milled equivalent) 0.21 0.71 0.73 0.70 1.00 0.92Oranges 0.15 0.23 0.33 0.30 0.41 0.33Vegetable oils and oilseeds (oil

equivalent) 0.02 0.40 0.86 0.83 1.13 1.28Tobacco 0.20 0.22 0.22 0.27 0.25 0.24Cotton (lint) 1.29 1.04 0.94 0.56 1.03 1.57

Million cubic meters

Coniferous logs 0.33 0.60 0.71 0.72 0.54Broadleaved log 0.23 0.25 0.22 0.26 0.24Pulpwood 5.68 4.64 4.87 5.20 4.85Sawn softwood 8.41 11.15 12.59 10.80 10.40

Wood pulp 0.80 1_83

Million, metric

2.37

tons

2.72 2.63 2.65Newsprint 2.80 4.50 5.14 5.42 5.55 5.53

Ctaoss IMPORTS

Sugar (raw equivalent) 3.20 3.87 4.03 4.19 4.44 4.41Citrus fruit 2 0.11 0.19 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.29Bananas 1.35 1.48 1.62 1.59 1.56 1.61Vegetable oils and oilseeds (oil

equivalent) 0.90 0.55 0.52 0.53 0.53 0.52Coffee 0.81 1.27 1.07 1.23 1.32 1.30Cocoa 0.26 0.29 0.25 0.24 0.27 0.25Tea 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07Jute 0.07 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.09 0.06Sisal 0.15 0.19 0.17 0.18 0.16 0.16Wool (actual weight) 0.:10 0.29 0.15 0.17 0.16 0.15Rubber (natural) 0.52 0.81 0.65 0.70 0.64 0.60

ANNEX TABLE 5-A. LATIN AMERICA. : PRODUCTION OF SELECTED COMMODITIES

'Beef and veal, pig meat, mutton and lamb. - 'Figures refer to calendar year.

207

COMMODITY 1911-38 1943-52 1954/55 195 5/5 6 1056/57 1957/68

_Million metric tom

Wheat 8.62 7.96 11.75 9.58 11.48 9.87Maize . 18.00 15.12 17.34 19.04 18.38 19.54Rice (milled equivalent) 1.33 3.07 3.79 3.63 4.06 3.98Sugar (centr.ifugal) 6.89 12.33 12.80 12.84 14.26 14.98

Citrus fruit 3.28 3.80 4.07 4.23 4.49 4.30Bananas. 4.20 7.60 8.60 8.70 9.00 9.10Coffee 2.11 1.89 1.96 2.25 1.97 2.35Cocoa 0.24 0.25 0.32 0.29 0.31 0.30Tobacco 0.21 0.31 0.37 0.39 0.39 0.40

Cotton (lint) 0.59 0.86 1.12 1.27 1.15 1.18

Mflk (total) 12.22 14.68 17.19 18.15 19.01 19.62Meat' 5.03 6.10 6.21 6.55 7.19 7.07Eggs 0.48 0.58 0.75 0.78 0.80 0.82

1948149 - 1952153 - 100

Index of all farm products . . 82 100 112 I 116 120 122

FOREST PRODUCTS' marie tons

Sawnwood (million m3) 8.10 9.12 9.26 8.85 8.60Wood pulp 0.22 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34All paper and board 0.69 0.89 1.08 1.15 1.20

AN: X. TABLE 5-13, LATIN AMERICA : EXPORTS AND IMPoRTs OF SELECTED COMMODiTiES

208

1EN:eluding trade between the 'United states and its territories. ,,Beef and veal, mutton and lamb, pig ineaL

COMMODITY 1934-38 1048-52 1954 1955 1956 1957

Million 7' tetrie 1071S

GROSS EXPORTS

Wheat and wheat f.lour 3.44 2.00 3.38 4.23 3.02 2.99Maize 6.61 1.20 2.27 0.58 1.14 0.87Rice (milled equivalent 0.10 0.25 0.16 0.14 0.13 0.13Sugar (raw equivalent)' 3.17 6.23 5.60 6.87 6.90 7.54Bananas 2.04 1.91 2.32 2.36 2.30 2.70Linseed and linseed oil (oil equiva-

lent) 0.55 0.19 0.29 0.18 0.08 0.15Coffee 1.40 1.61. 1.35 1.57 1.70 1.58Cocoa 0.21 0.18 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.20Cotton (li.nt) 0.34 0.39 0.72 0.68 0.75 0.51Wool (actual weight) 0.19 0.19 0.16 0.17 0.19 0.16Meat (fresh, chilled, frozen.)2 0.59 0.34 0.27 0.31 0.54 0.50Canned rneat 0.12 0.12 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.12

Million cubic neters

Broadleaved logs 0.40 0.34 0.40 0.48 0.45Sawn sOftwood 1.25 1.19 1.60 1.08 1.70

).11 Mon metric tons

GROSS IMPORTS

Wheat and wheat :flour 1.74 2.91 3.49 3.73 3.37 3.08Rico (milled equivalent) 0.49 0.50 0.43 0.32 0.35 0.41Sugar (raw equivalent) 0.24 0.36 0.38 0.39 0.38 0.41Potatoes 0.18 0.23 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.22

ANNEX TABLE 6-A. FAR EAST (EXCLUDIING MAINLAND CHINA) : PRO.DUCTION OF SELECTED COMMODITIES

CommoinTr

WheatMillet and sorghumRice (milled equivalent)

Sugar (centrifugal)Sugar (non-centrifugal)

Starchy rootsPulses

Vegetable oi.ls and oilseeds (oilequiivalent)

TeaTobaccoCotton (lint)JuteRubber (natural)

MeatAlin( (total)

Index of all farm products . .

FOREST PRODUCTS

Sawn softwood (million ma) . .

:Plywood (million m3)Wood pulpNewsprintOther papel and board

llleef and veal, pig meat, mutton ant haul). - 2Figures refer to calendar yet r.

Afiltion metric tons

12.13 11.32 13.51 13.83 13.69 14.4314.94 13.34 18.21 15.37 15.66 15.5065.28 66.58 72.03 77.83 82.07 78.00

4.18 3.15 4.68 5.07 5.23 5.583.67 4.03 4.46 4.87 5.22 5.30

21.62 26.26 31.81 33.77 33.00 33.296.78 7.09 8.23 9.16 9.05 9.60

3.96 3.99 4.96 4.83 5.11 5.11

0.46 0.55 0.63 0.66 0.65 0.660.79 0.61 0.74 0.78 0.86 0.861.22 0.88 1.30 1.20 1.26 1.281.94 1.99 1.65 2.28 2.26 2.180.97 1.65 1.74 1.82 1.77 1.78

1.65 1.78 1.99 2.13 2.26 2.2623.23 25.24 26.71 26.72 26.35 26.76

1918149 - 1952153 - 100

97 1001

113 1 116 1 119 j 119

Aliltion nmtric tons

16.86 21.00 24.57 28.47 30.800.25 0.67 0.83 1.03 1.150.78 1.65 1.93 2.22 2.500.16 0.45 0.48 0.55 0.600.90 1.77 2.09 2.41 2.85

209

1931-38 1948-52 1954/55 1955/56 1956/57 1957/58

ANNEX TABLE 6-B. FAR EAST (EXCLUDING MAINLAND CHINA) : EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF SELECTEDCOMMODITIES

210

COMMODITY 1934-38 1948-52 1951 1955 1956 1957

Onoss ExpowtsMillion metric tons

Rice (milled equivalent) 8.95 3.05 3.08 3.54 3.49 3.97Sugar (raw equivalent) 3.28 1.02 1.85 1.91 2.07 2.27Vegetable oils and oilseeds (oil

equivalent) 1.78 1.36 1.33 1.57 1.57 1.52'Pea 0.36 0.39 0.47 0.40 0.47 0.44Cotton (lint) 0.68 0.27 0.19 0.28 0.25 0.18jute 0.78 0.84 0.89 0.98 0.87 0.80Rubber (natural) 1.14 2.01 2.02 2.14 2.07 2.10

Million et Lie meters

Broadleaved logs 0.76 2.20 2.50 2.98 2.65Sawn hardwood 0.56 0.89 1.08 1.11 1.05:Plywood 0.02 0.17 0.24 0.30 0.35

Gnoss IMPORTS Million metric tons

Wheat and wh.eat flour 1.03 4.95 4.15 4.31 5.66 7.64Rice (milled equivalent) 6.13 3.12 3.40 3.10 3.95 3.87Barley 0.05 0.69 0.82 0.61 1.21 1.16Maize . 0.21 0.20 0.24 0.44 0.48 0.62Sugar (raw equivalent) 1.67 1.15 2.62 2.30 2.06 1.93Vegetable oils and oilseeds (oil

equivalent) 0.45 0.32 0.47 0.55 0.53 0.59Cotton (lin ) 0.91 0.52 0.74 0.67 0.86 0.88Jute 0.04 0.27 0.25 0.29 0.23 0.14

'Wheat, barley, oats, maize, millet, sorghum, and ice. - 213eef ancl veal, pig meat. mutton and lamb,

ANNEX TABLE 7-B. NEAR EAST : EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF SELECTED COMMODITIES

ANNEX I ABLE 7-A NEAR EAST : PRODUCTION OF SELECTED COMMODITIES

211

"Including rye, oats, maize, millet curl sorghum. --- 'Ora igcs and lemons only.

1957

COMMODiTY 1934-38 1948-52 1954/55 1955/56 1956/57 1957/58

311111on metric ton3

Wheat 9.66 11.13 13.74 14.27 15.40 17.92'Barley 4.75 5.28 6.51 .6.02 6.81 7.90Rice (milled equivalent) 1.09 1.33 1.50 1.35 1.65 1.81

Total cereals' 20.84 23.93 28.75 29.39 31.43 35.19Sugar (centrifugal) 0.22 0.42 0.60 0.72 0.75 0.81Pulses 1.16 1.32 1.36 1.36 1.33 1.41

Citrus fruit 0.79 0.86 1.10 1.26 1.20 1.16Dates 0.87 0.85 1.08 1.11 1.03 0.97Bananas 0.10 0.13 0.17 0.20 0.20 0.19

Vegetable oils ami oilseeds (oilequivalent) 0.35 0.46 0.58 0.56 0.68 0.58

Tobacco 0.09 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.16Cotton (lint) 0.56 0.66 0.74 0.76 0.82 0.81

Milk (total) 11.30 12.15 12.27 13.39 13.66 13.93

Meat' 0.99 1.28 1.44 1.52 1.55 1.61

1948119 - 1952153 - 100

Index of all farm products . 83 I 100 119 122 127 131

ttillion metric tOnS

Gnoss Ext,onTs

Wheat 8,nd wheat flour 0.24 0.29 1.28 0.34, 0.42 0.44Barley 0.36 0.46 1.03 0.46 0.77 0.54Rice (milled equivalent) 0.15 0.27 0.13 0.25 0.28 0.35

Total cereals' 0.94 1.16 2.68 1.16 1.55 1.4S

Citrus fruit 0.30 0.20 0.37 0.32 0.37 0.37Tobacco 0.04 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.09Cotton (lint) 0.47 0.47 0.51 0.56 0.49 0.52

GROSS Imrowrs

Wheat and wheat flour . 0.30 1.42 0.85 1.23 1.77 2.39

Total cereals' 0.51 1.77 1.10 1.74 2.27 2.94

Sugar (raw equivalen t) 0.34 0.53 0.73 0.77 0.85 0.83

COMAIODITY 1934-38

'Beef and veal, pig meat, .mutton and lamb. - '''Figures refer to calendar year.

212

ANNEX TABLE 8-A. AFRICA : PRODUCTION OF SELECTED COMMODITIES

COMMODITY 1934-3S 1948-52 1954/55 1955/56 1956/57 1957/58

Wheat 2.50 2.97

Million,

4.11

metric tons

3.64 4.01 3.43Barley 2.09 2.56 3.14 2.33 3.03 1.56Maize 4.50 6.86 8.42 8.51 9.14 8.69Millet and sorghum 7.88 8.93 9.50 9.21 9.18 9.25Rice (milled equivalent) 1.11 1.74 1.91 2.01 1.95 2.16

Sugar (centrifll gal) 0.95 1.36 1.71 1.91 1.95 9.09

StarChy roots 35.38 45.14 51.13 52.02 52.10 52.14Pulses 0.56 0.87 1.25 1.19 0.95 0.93

Citrus fruit 0.38 0.76 0.98 1.07 1.07 1.17Bananas 0.25 0.25 0.37 0.35 0.36 0.36

Groundnuts (oil equivalent) . . . . 0.56 0.71 0.81 0.93 0.94 1.11Vegetable oils and oilseeds (oil

equivalent) 1.69 2.15 2.46 2.47 2.69 2.69

Coffee 0.12 0.25 0.36 0.43 0.45 0.45Cocoa 0.49 0.50 0.49 0.53 0.59 0.45Wine 2.14 1.72 2.51 2.07 2.49 2.10

Cotton (lint) 0.14 0.22 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27Sisal 0.15 0.23 0.29 0.30 0.31. 0.32

Milk (total) 5.21 5.68 7.18 7.27 7.38 7.49Meat' 1.17 1.41. 1.57 1.55 1.60 1.64

1948149 - 1952153 - 100

Index of all farm product 78J

100 119 1 119J

123 120

Million cubic meters

FOREST PRODUCTS2

Sawnwood 1.31 1.79 1.80 1.86 1.90

ANNEX TABLE 8-B. AFRICA : EXPORTS ANI) IMPORTS OF SELECTED COMMODITIES

213

COMMODITY 1934-38 1943-52 1954 1953 1956 1957

a-Ross ExpoRTsjlEilUon metric tons

Wheat and wheat flour 0.51 0.19 0.38 0.46 0.26 0.15Barley 0.21 0.55 0.64 0.46 0.49 0.12Maize 0.67 0.35 0.77 1.02 1.31 1.40Sugar (raw equivalent) 0.68 0.70 1.02 1.06 1.09 1.16Oranges 0.15 0.39 0.53 0.66 0.56 0.72Bananas 0.12 0.20 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.33Groundnuts and groundnut oil (oil

equivalent) 0.33 0.33 0.51 0.46 0.57 0.54Palm kernels and oil (oil equivalent)

and palm oil 0.55 0.66 0.76 0.74 0.75 0.71Coffee 0.11 0.26 0.31 0.40 0.47 0.47Cocoa 0.46 0.48 0.47 0.48 0.52 0.57Wine 1.41 1.12 1.59 1.90 1.53 1.85Tobacco 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.10 0.08Cotton (lint) 0.13 0.19 0.24 0.24 0.26 0.24Sisal 0.16 0.22 0.27 0.29 0.30 0.31

Million cubic meters

Broadleaved logs 1.18 I 1.87 1 2.36 2.32 2.40

jinUon metric tons

CROSS ImponTs

Wheat and wheat flour 0.26 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.95 0.87Rice (milled equivalent) 0.38 0.18 0.23 0.33 0.32 0.42Sugar (raw equivalent) 0.39 0.52 0.81 0.91 0.91 0.99

Index of all farm product'

FOREST PRODUCTS'

Sawnwood

"Beef and veal, pig meat, mutton and lamb. - 'Figures refer to calendar year.

ANNEX TABLE 9-B. OcEANIA : EXPORTS A.ND IMPORTS OF SELECTED Coinao11rIES

ANNEX TABLE 9-A. OCEANIA : PRODUCTION OF SELECTED COMMODITIES

1

4.19

214

108 1 116

Million cubic meters

4.76 1 4.83

114

4.69

2.661.530.92

11.541.96

4.65

COMMODITY 1934-38 1948-52 1951 1955 1956 1957

GROSS EXPORTS

Million metric tons

Wheat and wheat flour 2.82 3.13 1.99 2.55 3.58 2.65Barley 0.07 0.26 0.63 0.36 0.63 0.64Oats -- 0.19 0.03 0.11 0.20 0.10Sugar (raw equivalent) 0.56 0.47 0.80 0.81 0.88 1.31Copra and coconut oil (oil equiva-

lent) 0A3 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17Beef 0.15 0.13 0.17 0.25 0.24 0.28Mutton and lamb 0.27 0.30 0.34 0.33 0.31 0.30Butter 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.24 0.25 0.21Cheese 0.10 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10Wool (actual weight) 0.49 0.66 0.62 0.71 0.72 0.81

Gaoss ImronTs

Wheat and wIleat flour 0.06 0.21 0.26 0.28 0.31 0.33Sugar (raw equivalent) 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.13 0.11 0.12Rubber (natural) 0.01 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.05

Million metric tons

Wheat 4.38 5.30 4.70 5.39 3.73Sugar (centrifugal) 0.94 1.04 1.48 1.34 1.39Wool (greasy basis) 0.59 0.69 0.79 0.85 0.93Milk (total) 10.18 10.43 10.52 11.28 11.81Meat' 1.42 1.58 1.79 1.88 1.85

1948149 - 1952153 100

88 100

COMMODITY 1934-38 1918-52 1954/55 1955/56 1956/57 1957158

ANNEX TABLE 10. UNITED STATES COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION : QUANTITY AND VALUE OF INVESTMENT1

COMMODITY

1953 1954 1955 1950 1957 1958 1953 1954 1955 1950 1957 195S

Thousand neirie tons Million dollars

VVheat 12 890 24 208 28 156 29 073 24 453 24 174 1 095 2 155 2 633 2 791 2 411 2 409Rice 2 58 763 1 322 804 732 -- 6 '98 232 107 10413arley 95 622 2 044 1 987 1 774 2 698 5 31 107 92 87 114Oats 250 589 1 052 1 222 650 732 14 32 58 60 32 32Maize 11 373 20 568 22 255 29 192 34 801 37 211 835 1 296 1 437 1 926 2 289 2 414Grain sorghnrn 29 1 029 2 927 2 887 2 040 8 295 1 60 167 128 105 393Butter 58 165 149 34 16 45 86 245 212 44 21 60Cheese 35 164 176 130 87 74 31 146 156 111 73 62Dried milk 84 298 101 81 65 70 32 109 38 30 24 26Linseed 96 382 201 41 351 59 14 56 25 5 42 7Linseed oil 86 31 37 26 -- -- 55 13 14 9 -- --Cottonseed oil 288 469 170 5 -- 116 185 64 2 -- --Cotton linters . 178 279 318 141 20 -- 36 58 67 31 5 --Cotton, upland 482 1 674 1 817 2 839 2 056 973 339 1 268 1 439 2 268 1 580 642Wool 49 55 70 54 24 -- 70 81 103 82 35 --Tobacco 231 281 366 402 451 427 225 270 406 535 609 590Other commodities. 182 175 237 287 396 406

TOTAL 3 136 6 189 7 261 8 633 7 816 7 251

215

Percent

Change from previous year + 95 I + 971 + 171 + 191 + 7

SOURCE : Report of Financial Conditions and Operations, United States Department of Agriculture, Commodity Credit Corpora-tion, April 1054, 1955, 1950, 1957, and 1958.

'Stocks pledged for outstanding loans and stocks in price support inventory.

Quantity (30 April) Value (30 April)

ANNEX TABLE IL CCO SHIPMENTS UNDER TITLES I AND II OF P.L. 480 (EuxcLoDio POINSETTIA_ PROGRAM)BY REGIONS OF DESTINATION AND COMIHODITTES (FROM INCEPTION OP PROGRAM THROUGH 31 DECEMBER 1957)

Near EastTitleTitle TT

:ttcc.roNs

tVestern EuropeTitleTitle TT

Total :Europe . . .

Eastern Eurape - Title

Africa - Title ft

Total Near East. .

Far .EastTitle ITitle

Total Far East. . .

Latin Ante,rieaTitle T'litio TI

Total Latin America

WorldTitleTitle TT

Total W-orlel

We,,Wera EuropeTitleTitle

Total Europe . . .

.Eastern Europe - 1.'410 TI

Africa - Title II . .

Near EastTitle TTitle

Total Near East.

For .EastTitle TTitle IT

Total Far East.

Latin AmericaTitle TTitle IT

r.1.7otal Latin America

WorldTitle ITitle TI

Total World

'wheatand wheat

flour

377 94354 852

432 795

4 219

9 588

195 61422 325

217 939

447 49131 754

479 245

178 00814 354

192 362

1 199 056137 092

I 336 148

Coarsegrains

52 03614 01866 054

4 344

45 861

45 861.

40 79361

4() 854

1 6608 839

10 499

140 35027 262

167 612

Rice

171

171

467

2 83841

2 879

234 77822 233

257 011

4 8304 830

237 61627 742

265 358

Fruitandvege-tables

4 6281 1555 783

437

352

352

342

342

3771 377

5 3222 9698 291

DaRTp rm hu s

Thousand metric tons

Thousand dollars

4 35339 96344 316

4 950

434

8 5077 409

15 916

10 4809 258

19 738

5321 4541 986

23 87263 46887 340

Meat

18 655

18 655

14 819

14 819

8 253

8 253

41 727

41 727

Fatsandoils

179 362888

180 250

556

21 821

21 821

3 6274 1087 735

61 7471 317

63 064

266 5576 869

273 426

Cotton

229 5165 523

235 039

2 711

2 711

220 9384 474

225 412

21 4982 528

24 026

474 66312 525

487 188

Tobacco

61 271

61 271

396

396

41 257

41 257

753

753

103 677

103 677

Total

927 764116 570

I 044 334

14 973

10 022

292 91929 775

322 (194

1 (107 953)71 888

1 073) 847

264 19834 669

298 897

2 492 840277 927

2 770 767

3 173.3459.0

607.3135.0

-0.7

37.36.0

11.544.2

28.8- 501.01.9

229.26.2

39.9- 4 628.3653.0

3 632.3 742.3 0.7 43.3 55.7 28.8 502.9 235.4 39.9 5 281.3

32.2 42.3 1.6 2.2 6.3 - 1.0 - - 85.6

74.2 - - 0.7 74.9

1 677.1 512.6 10.2 1.9 7.3 17.7 62.4 2.8 0.2 2 292.2176.1 - 0.1 - 8.5 -- - - - 184.7

1 853.2 512.6 10.3 1.9 15.8 17.7 62.4 2.8 0.2 2 476.3)

4 330.7 513.61 018.1 0.5 16.4 6.8 11.7 226.4 25.6 6 149.8' 287.0 0.6 92.7 - 18.8 - 9.2 4.1 - 412.4

4 617.7 514.21 110.8 0.5 35.2 6.8 20.9 230.5 25.6 6 5(32.2

1 546.2 17.1 - - 0.5 - 164.3 20.3) 0.5 1 749.5117.3 90.4 20.7 6.9 3.3 --- 2.7 2.6 - 243.3)

1 663.5 107.5 20.7 6.9 3.8 - 167.0 23.5 0.5 1 993.4

10 727.31 650.61 028.3 39.7 35.7 53.3 739.4 479.3 66.2 14 819.81 145.8 268.3 115.8 15.1 81.8 - 14.8 12.9 - 1 654.5

11 873.1 i 3)18.91 144.1 54.8 117.5 53.3 754.2 492.2 66.2 16 474.3

SOURCE : U. S. Department of Agricultura, Commodity Credit Corporation, Report of Title I Operations (P. L. 480), No. 17;and Report of Title II Operations (P. L. 480), No. 37.

"Value represents estimated cost to CM

216

ANNEX TABLIi: 12. AVERAGE 'WORLD IMPORT UNIT V.ALUES IN U.S. DOLLARS, MAJOR COMMODITIES

00..221alaTY

WheatWheat flour:BarleyMniveRice (milled)

S.tigar (raw and re (Li:led)

A.pplesBananas'Oranges and t angerinesRaisins

CopraPalm kernelsSoybeansG rOlincinuts e e d )

Olive oilC00011114 oilPalm oil-Palm keniel oil . .

Soybean oilGi:onndnut oil . .

Beef and veal' . .

Mutt on and lamb"Bacon.Ch.eeseButter ..... . .

Eggs (in the shell) .

0 ilcake

CoffeeCocoaTeaWineTobacco (unmaintfac-

lured )

LinseedLinseed oil

Cotton (lint)juteWool (greasy) . .

Rubber- (natural) .

Food and feed. . .

Beverages and tobaccoRaw materialsAll agricultural prod-

ucts

1947-49

107

146

89

89

171

125

146

98165

282

232

161

142

203

1 189359281

400439471

350357747725

979803

105

613622

1 143263

1 252

244

558

832326

1 0054.58

106

7579

91

Average

1950- 1952- 1951-51 53 53

88 92112 121

76 8576 90139 184

134 129

125

100

129

256

230

170123

213

666377274383371

477

423320645593841

624

77

1 152709

1 055

168

1 928

175

374

1 07:3

2982 109915

9699123

104

1.31

98

128

257

101

172

127

248

623298244

325347449

439377718643

954720

86

1 268743

1 026

167

1 307

183

345

943236

1 603696

100100100

100

78112

65

73155

121

148

98

131

259

184

149

120225

566286214286320393

481

487650640978

6:33

87

4241 119

486143

I 380

137

212

866209

1 580623

90116

93

97

1956

78102

6974

1:15

121

153

105

163

306

165

143

111

233

834255245266338418

4245047:12

723925624

85

1 235634

.1 350

158

1 393

1160

323

783204

1 451741

90101

9.1

93

1951

U. S. (10 1(11.9»el metric ton

761046469

1130

143

170

103

178315

166

142

108

2-13

675268251271

346444

453558680636791

587

79

1 226621

1 365179

1 481

137

270

7:37

2511 689681

9210292

94

78

10467(i1)

138

120

136

10:3

1:32

278

163

142

104221

810251.

2:32

266306:381

446510651

7331 0:34

6:32

88

1 199

69:3

1 241

143

1 :31)1

154

293

790107

1 :363

872

8999

93

92

1950

77

96

7076

1:31

123

1.89

105194

291

_168

143

114242

876261.

240264362415

4434707:30

685

854:540

82

I 2:30

609

301154

1 :312

166

348

802214

1 402732

Indices: 1952-33 100

91

99

91

92

77101

69

77

135

120

169

104.

161

:310

168146

127

239

888251

253280:35:3

442

446515761

712904(347

84

1 262607

1 314

164

1 4:39

165323

788907

I 445656

1)1

10288

93

IV

79

106

70

751:36

129

105

109

198

:325

163

142107221

7652592562573:32

437

37852977(3

760881

66:3

86

255(30:3

1 561169

1 411

156

:313

75:5

2031 629675

9210491.

94

I II III IV

81

106

71

77

139

133

129

104171

:301

170173112

249

68:3

266254279359465

415589756692760506

86

1 257569

1 557164

1 404

16:3

:323

736240

1 666

716

0:3

103

93

95

78

106

65

7')

130

151

168105170

:313

1681.42

113

253

701.

268256279:354

4613

4-63

545669

637

778490

79

1 248547

1 218171

1 462

147

287

748262

I 775

67:3

9310094

1957

95

73

1025966

125

154,

214105

180324

171

140

110

241

671

262246258:334

444

45455:3

703618;;4

6:39

75

1 254

6421 167

181

1 552

119

7:35

2571 666683

9:3

10391

95

70101

58

63

129

130

197100

192:31(3

157

139

101

22()

635269244269328:395

475524595595777697

73

157

7701 404

197

1 487

123246

72725:3

1 622655

8710389

91

'Average e.y.port unit values. "Fresh, chilled and ftogen. 3 19 17 Ind 1948 excluding tri,c1e between India and Pakistan.

217

ANNEX TABLE 13. AVERAGE RETURNS RECEIVED BY FARMERS FOR SELECTED C08mI0DITIISS1953/54-1956/57

For notes, see end of table.

218

U. S. dollars per

WHEAT

TOO kilograms

RYE

Austria 19.23 '9.62 19.62 1962. 9.23 8.85 8.85 8.85

Belgium 9.39 9.35 8.92 9.36 5.24 5.88 5.44 6.42Denmark 26.68 26.42 26.81 26.72 25.12 26.30 26.15 25.89

Finland 13.43 13.66 14.53 16.27 13.29 13.66 14.33 16.70F Vallee 9.26 9.27 9.19 10.83 8.07 7.29 6.99 7.83Germany, Western 9.95 9.69 9.86 9.60 9.48 8.98 9.29 9.00(. 1,Tece 8.47 8.47 9.00 10.27 5.67 6.17 6.60 6.97IrelandItaly 311.50 311.59 311.62 311.52 48.75 44.01 48.76 49.36Netherlands 16.74 16.74 56.63 56.82 5.45 6.38 6.57 6.57Norway 11.29 11.87 12.55 11.83 11.24 10.87 11.81 10.87Poland 65.45 '6.30 "8.39 63.38 63.80 65.05Portugal 710.57 710.61 710.23 710.26 88.59 88.49 88.31 88.45Spain 9.33 9.31 9.81 9.98 6.57 6.57 6.62 6.62Sweden 109.47 108.49 107.99 1°8.24 8.93 7.14 7.27 7.21Switzerland 15.03 14.96 14.88 14.91 12.84 12.77 12.72 12.72Turkey . 1010.71 1010.71 1°10.71 1°10.71United KingdomYugoslavia

8.53 8.86117.46

8.45119.13

8.3211988

6.84, 6.97 6.42 6.42

Canada 4.67 4.67 4.04 3.66 3.66 4.05United States . 7.79 7.28 7.39 4.80 4.13 4.65Japan 9.55 9.62 9.26Australia 5.22 5.29

13ARLEv OATS

Austria 6.73 7.31 7.50 7.12BeIgnim 5.74 6.52 6.32 6.52 5.48 6.16 5.92 6.02Denmark '5.97 '6.86 26.64 26.33 "5.84 "7.04 "6.54 "6.02Finland 10.02 9.56 11.44 12.74 7.98 9.39 11.42 11.62France 8.28 7.27 7.13 5.60Germany, Western 9.64 9.90 10.05 9.93 7.74 7.40 8.12 7.79Greece 6.25 6.90 7.50 8.20 6.22 6.60 6.73 7.80Ireland 7.70 6.38 6.92 6.86 6.72 6.47 5.96 5.77Italy 8.29 6.46 9.03 9.22 7.22 6.19 9.03 8.16Netherlands 6.01 6.59 6.47 6.44 5.59 6.76 6.11 6.59Norway 9.61 9.13 9.81 9.07 8.19 7.90 8.59 7.82Poland . 3.28 3.50 4.30 4.24 4.32 4.78Portugal 7.13 6.89 7.34 8.38 6.40 6.36 7.10 8.63Spain - 8.29 5.43 7.29 9.93 7.74 5.07 6.81 9.29Sweden 5.64 7.10 6.77 6.28 4.99 6.64 6.96Switzerland 912.32 912.60 912.46 912.37TurkeyUnited Kingdom 7.68 7.97 7.27 7.77 6.06 6.55 6.17 6.91Yugoslavia "6.24 "8.01 "8.32 155.46 157.83 158.62Canaria 4.18 4.04 3.40 4.47 4.41 3.83United States 5.01 4.21 4.51 4.91 4.10 4.82

Japan )c 7.11 c 7.25 c 7.180 10.05 n 10.12 n 9.62

Australia 6.13 4.98 5.29 4.19

COUNTRY 1953/54 1954/55 1955/56 1956/57 1953/54 1954/53 195 5/5 6 195 6/5 7

ANNEx.TAtn,..o 13. AVERAGE RKTURNS RECEIVED BY FARMERS FOR SELECTED COMMODITIES1953/54-1956/57 (continued)

219

COUNTRY 1953/54 1954/55 1955/56 1956/57 1953/51 1951/55 1955/56 1956/57

AustriaBelgiumDenmark .

1.481.33

"1.04

SITGATI

1.391.35

1'0.97

U

BEETS

1.311.39

131

S. (10110 'S '151.

1.421.41

"1.41

100 kilo

2.49

150100

For.,

2.50

ToEs

3.61 2.10Finland 2.67 2.68 3.17 3.65 3.02 4.76 5.99 3.01France 1.45 1.30 1.42 1.20 2.52 3.10Germany, Westorn 1.70 1.50 1.57 1.50 2.62 2.62 3.40 2.86Greece 3.75 4.43 5.13 5.47Ireland 3.39 4.59 4.84 2.97Italy 1.32 1 : 1.39 4.37 3.35 3.44 4.29NetherlandsNorway 3.13 4.21 2.63PolandPortugal

2.00 2. 06. . .

2.114.35

1.714.17

2.334.03

2.213.83

Span 1.60 1.57 1.55 1.55 2.76 2.26 3.31 3.33Sweden 1.64 1.51 1.37 1.66 3.01 3.88 4.59 2.94Switzerland 1.82 1.80 1.87 1.82 4.97 4.85 4.85 4.67Turkey

Kingdorn 41.6S 41.65 1.77 1.74 3.33 3.38 4.90 3.13Yugoslavia "1.17 "1.50 "1.67 "3.01 "4.91 "1.27Canada 1.34 1.48 3.93 4.19United Sta-es 1.29 .33 161.39 4.74 3.90 4.67Japan 2.35 2.11 2.40Australia 6.33 14.21

Watnx, lynx PIGS (live weight)

Austria 47.46 51.27 50.15 50.42Belgium 6.24 5.92 5.92 6.10 46.42 53.20 43.10 41.26Denmark, 5.92 6.15 6.19 5.91 '760.29 1760.15 "65.16 '765.88Finland 8.59 8.84 11.04 11.81 1784.87 1784.92 "94.44 17102.66FranceGermany, Western "16.14 '16.57 217 '17.52 59.05 52.86 54.29 56.43Greece 30.56 41.33 41.66 42.56Ireland 49.36 45.95 47.77 47.43Italy 7.68 7.00 6.91 6.91 54.85 63.71 59.14 56.07Netherlands 5.65 6.10 6.33 7.47 48.17 .46.59 43.95 46.85Norway 7.28 7.90 8.66 9.70 49.42 49.56 44.10 45.22Poland 7.75 8.08 9.08 47.12 51.08 66.54Portugal 5.25 5.18 5.04 5.29 "38.26 "42.08 "46.71 "53.91Spain 6.95 6.71 7.02 7.93 38.76 40.67 46.17 53.178 weden 7.06 7.07 8.14 8.17 "62.24 '766.88 "75.77 1778.878witzerla.nd 8.33 8.26 8.43 8.82 71.19 77.02 74.69 72.35TurkeyUnited Kingdom 9.7.8 9.63 9.68 9.34 65.42 57.10 57.74 60.57Yugoslavia 2'5.97 "7.43 "17.89Canada 6.50 6.39 6.53 66.80 53.48 54.76United States . 8.50 8.58 8.84 47.62 33.07 31.75.Tapan 48.00 44.53 42.13Anstralia 5.42 5.54 33.20 42.30New Zealand 3.20 3.20

ANNEX TABLE 13. AVERAGE RETuitv,:rs RECEIVED BY FARMERS FOR SELEC1 110 Cosuiiourriics1953/54-1956/57 (concluded)

NorrE : tKIII,Iii;iti0/1 of what 's coinprised in time figures, SIlO section " 1?rices amd the llago 42- cminfflii barley. 11 - N:11Ced b0110y.

I Eli 11:1IS prierS. - )1,1 (1(.11\,1 from ii011115 estimated wholesale margin and the f.o.b.foi ex-aoris less trade margin. - '..\.rrrage of goterameot rud froo I ICI prices for SI (I; Nod. durum whoot. - 4.kver-

ogo f !mid pritO Ill 11-hich 1111.1.1diasos woreo troy( od h I ho Not ionni Vodorot .4111 .f. I 1,111,q.1.1,11 III,ele., 10 19 Pniti li 1.,r],1('1%-; 11:11e 110011 du-dun' i.d. - llecO MI Mont Illy OVer!.....:,; Vi'l'irit.11 lii .aint Of lit. I"; Iii 11,1s of ow; inoni Pori ogol. 1.noluding a premiumor 'Ill Si157 frolics por hoot oro. %%idol! 'no gcVcrilitivill' Viii hi prod 111,1.'1 011111' I 9.11 . - IC;11,11,in 71101.,4.

sl Vict ly - - \],,g,Ill %\.11,)[0:;111 111101;11k(11, lOi I vad. moruln. "Tli, 1111111 pile()is liso,1 ofter 1 110 Priti Of ci,11 1, IVI Ill' iliort.;141'd 10 pt.11S:11 t FI' itivrea,-,0:: 111Cltlillin

riNid 1.1]. lit):41:1101itti. tleliVeVy. - 111:4' tXl..listS - - bealIllIlil1. tlr I I. IllIllItlIS, -

Nvoilx10,. - "1.%)r(q1SS 11 I. lii II I III reelti; 1)1 lii VI I il iiiIilv:L IVag i I I I i lili-

VcI (, I i INlia 1)3 egg-c..,1i.'Ctilig ,.-01),.1,1t1V0 1 9 5115.-) o rid u9 5 5151; intIii.1 a subsidy of .11;5 nudrc-;11ivt.ly. from. Picaxily/Norniily at t,lie Paris i lili il lark.01., e,o/rriles). -I ii,os paid hy daftica.,..,i.onverhal at 50-55 g411111114 Per egg. - "LiNet Nveight. 011 1." inines - 21Calondar

220

Ausl ria

Bloc, CITTLIc

33.42

(live

35.46

U.S.weight excl.

35.42

Dollars

calves)

37.50

per 100 1alograpiq

EGGS

Belgittin 41.30 39.70 41.98 43.64 81.36 78.48 72.00 73.08Denmark 30.64 30.70 32.29 34.03 55.85 54.85 59.24 51.84rinlatol 1876.00 1872.66 1874.13 "85.05 "75.58 "77.61 "82.22 1987.83Venne, 32.24 37.94 2°76 .82 2082. 94 2°81 .42 2°77 . 14

ermait, Western 34.76 37.38 40.71) 40.48 75.83 78.00 84.36 77.62t :recce 24.46 28.20 34.31) 34.90 48.86 53.76 58.76 60.631 re la nil

38.44 41.92 43.08 47.12 82.68 77.73 83.45 83.51Nellierlonds 40.27 39.48 42.11 46.59 57.38 58.17 63.43 53.69

39.20 41.58 37.38 38.78 57.27 58.25 63.35 58.10I 1111 20.46 22.79 28.29 2248 .97 2250. 10 2254.20

Portug4 1 "51.02 2249.63 2"51.89 2357.802431.9:3 9133.56 2133.98 2134.68Spain 22.55 24.36 29.00 34.81 74.17 78.74 82.43 91.36Sx\ rdon 1773.45 1769.78 1178.67 1178.09 55.86 56.25 62.05 59.92SwilztI'lz10( 45.51. 46.68 47.85 47.85 98.26 98.49 103.63 101.53Turkcv 2250.21. 2254.99

II it (s) :Kingdom 32.07 35.83 35.27 37.20 83.52 81.87 83.36 85.05Yugiislavia 2577.32 2'82.00 2592.00Cnnada 35.36 36.07 35.67 57.86 61.00 61.31-United States 35.27 34.39 32.85 53.68 57.05 56.76

41.60 :35.47 38.40 47.52 49.28 52.80Ausl I'll 18.46 17.72 70.40 74.80NOW ZO:I land 82.13 82..13

COUNTRY 1953/54 1954/55 1955/56 1956/57 1953/51 1954/55 1955/56 1956/57

ANNEX TABLE 14. TOTAL CATCH (LIVE -WEIGHT) OF FISH, CRUSTACEANS , MOLLUSKS, ETC.,IN SELECTED COUNTRIES

MAJou PRoDunnas

Canada (inclu(ling NOW fOUTRI 1 and)China: MainlandIndiaJapanNorwayUn t ed Kingdom.United States (including Alaska) .

U.S 8,1f.

HET) ru P Ron ucEns

AngolaBraviBurmaChileChina : ',TaiwanDenmarkFiler( IslandsFrance (including Algeria).French Equa orial AfricaGermany, WesternIce:landIndonesiaItalyKol:ea, North .

Korea, South .Malaya, Federation of.Mi.n.occoNetherland .PakistanPeruPhilippinesPolandPort up,n,SpainSwedenTho i landT orb: yUnjo>) of South Africa'Viet-Nana

836.8"(1 500.0)

1 562.01 152.51 198 1

2 253.11 52 0

221

Thousand ,netric tons

1 010.6 1 025.8 963.7 1 091.93863.4 2 294.0 2 518.0 2 640.03770.6 828.5 839.0 1 012.3

3 329.1 4 544.6 4 912.8 4 762.61 584.5 2 068.2 1 813.4 2 201.31 108.8 1 070.2 1 100.4 1 050.42 451.7 2 706.4 2 738.9 2 935.91 761.0 2 258.0 2498.0 2617.0

96.2 142.0 261.2 290.4 420.5103.3 156.7 172.0 ...

... ... ... ... 100.032.9 88.4 143.5 214.3 188.389.5 94.8 152.2 180.3 193.297.1 270.3 359.4 425.3 463.063.0 93.9 89.4 105.6 116.3530.3 482.5 500.2 522.7 537.9

... ... ... ... 100.0776.5 560.5 678.0 776.9 770.8327.2 415.7 455.4 480.3 517.3472.0 436.5 628.5 621.5 636.9181.2 183.1 217.6 218.0 218.6925.2 "275.0 235.0 312.0 3(383.0)832.0 271.8 247.2 259.3 340.9

... 145.7 137.3 136.8 ...

43.7 108.9 105.5 96.3 110.2256.2 284.7 339.2 319.5 298.1

... '244.0 259.7 270.9 277.0

... 74.0 146.1 183.3 267.380.9 255.1 364.6 385.2 416.0... ... 106.4 113.0 127.4

247.2 310.1 438.7 424.7 472.2408.5 581.6 639.2 747.4 736.0129.2 189.9 201.1 219.5 197.4161.0 174.3 229.8 213.0 217.976.0 6105.1 119.4 111.5 139.565.9 357.9 617.1 602.0 555.2180.0 ... 130.0 ...

991.7

5 399.01 738.91 014.7

395.5

100.0

208.0533.3

514.5

753.8502.7

COUNTRY 193S 194S-52 1954 1955 1956 1957

282.8350.0

464.6752.4

ANNEX TABLE 14. TOTAL CATCH (LIVE -WEIGHT) OF FISH, CRUSTACEANS, MOLLUSKS, ETC.,IN SELECTED COUNTRIES (concluded)

222

1936 data, - "Average 1.949-52. - "Average 1950-52. - '1949 data. - "Plan target for 1956. - "Avet age 1951-52."Including South 'West Africa,. - "1948 data. - "Average 1948-51.

COUNTRY 1938 1948-52 1951 1955 1956 1957

Thousand 'metric tons

SELECTED SMALLER PRODUCERS

Aden ... 844.8 51.9 34.8 21.8Argentina 55.3 70.1 78.1 78.9 75.1 81.4Australia 33.5 38.2 53.7 52.2 49.9 55.313elgian Congo 0.9 34.2 65.7 80.6 ...Belgium 42.8 65.0 72.6 80.0 69.1 62.9Cameroons (French Admin.). . 18.0 922.0 37.2 42.0 43.5 53.6Ceylon ... 33.1 29.7 31.3 40.3 38.5Colombia 10.0 15.8 16.0 18.0 21.2 30.1Cuba 10.0 99.4 11.5 12.8 15.6Egypt 38.1 49.0 56.7 63.4 70.3Ethibpia, and Eritrea, Fed. of . ... ... 25.2 18.1 ...Finland 44.4 60.2 65.5 63.3 60.2 64.5Ghana ... . ... ... 20.0 20.0Greece 25.0 41.3 52.5 60.0 65.0 75.0Greenland 4.7 22.8 24.9 25.8 27.4 31.5Hawaii 7.0 7.2 9.3 7.0 7.5 4.9Hong-Kong ... 37.8 46.7 45.9 ...Ireland 12.8 19.4 21.5 23.6 30.5Israel 1.7 5.3 9.2 10.7 10.3Kenya ... ... 17.6 12.7 12.7Mat:tritius 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2Mexico 17.1 68.8 ... ... ...New Zealand 27.0 35.8 36.9 39.2Singapore 1.5 3.6 6.3 6.2St. Pierre and Miquelon 1.9 92.2 6.8 6.8 9.3Tangán.yika 16.0 25.9 50.0 52.4 55.0Tunisia 9.6 12.7 ... ... ...Uganda ... 16.2 24.4 25.0 34.3Uruguay 3.6 3.6 4.0 4.9 5.4 6.9Venezuela 21.7. 76.7 51.8 69.6 61.3 89.7Yugoslavia 16.8 24.7 23.0 22.6 28.4

Argentina

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Brazil

Burma :

Canada :

Ceylon

Chile

Colombia :

Costa Rica :

Cuba

Denmark :

Ecuador :

Egypt :

El Salvador :

Ethiopia

Finland

France :

Germany

Greece

Guatemala :

Haiti

Hong Kong :

Iceland

India

Indonesia

Iraq :

Ireland

Israel

Italy :

SALES A.ITS FOR FAO leUBLICATIONS

Editorial Sudamericana, S.A., Alsina 500, Buenos Aires.

H.A. Goddard Pty. Ltd., A.M.P. Bldg., 50 Miller Street, N. Sydney, N.S.W.

Wilhelm Frick Buchhandlung, Graben 27, Vienna 1.

Agence et Messageries de la Presse, 14-22 rue du Persil, Brussels.

Livraria Agir, Rua Mexico 98-B, Rio de Janeiro.

(Wholesale) Orient Longmans Private Ltd., 17 Chittaranjan Avenue, Calcutta 13, India.

The Ryerson Press, 299 Queen Street West, Toronto 2, Ontario. Periodica, 5090 AvenuePapineau, Montreal 34.

M. D. Gunasena and Co. Ltd., 217 Norris Road, Colombo 11.

Sala y Grijalbo Ltda., Bandera 140-F, Casilla 180D, Santiago.

"Agricultura Tropical," Carrera 13, No. 13-17, Bogotá. Librería Central, Calle 14, No. 6-88,Bogotá.

Trejos Hermanos, Apartado 1313, San José.

René de Smedt, La Casa Belga, O'Reilly 455, Havana.

Ejnar Munksgaard, Norregade 6, Copenhagen K.

"La Hacienda," Escobedo No. 1003 y P. Icaza, Casilla No. 3983, Guayaquil ; Librería MuñozHnos. y Cía., Apartado 522, Quito.

Librairie de la Renaissance d'Egypte, 9 Sh. Adly Pasha, Cairo.

Manuel Navas y Cía., la Avenida Sur 35, San Salvador.

International Press Agency, P. 0. Box 120, Addis Ababa.

Akateeminen Kirjakauppa, 2 Keskuskatu, Helsinki.

Les Editions A. Pedone, 13 rue Soufflot, Paris 5e.

Paul Parey, Lindenstrasse 44-47, Berlin SW 68.

"Eleftheroudakis," Constitution Square, Athens.

Sociedad Económico Financiera, Edificio Briz, Despacho 207, 6a Av., 14.33, Zona 1, Guatemala.

Max Bouchereau, Librairie "A la Caravelle," B. P. 111B, Port-au-Prince,

Swindon Book Co., 25 Nathan Road, Kowloon.

Halldor Jonsson, Mjostraeti 2, Reykjavik ; Jonsson and Juliusson, Garbastraeti 2, Reykjavik.

(Wholesale) Orient Longmans Private Ltd., 17 Chittaranjan Avenue, Calcutta 13 ; Nicol Road,Ballard Estate, Bombay 1; 36A Mount Road, Madras 2 ; Kanson House, 24/1 Asaf Ali Road,Post Box 386, New Delhi ; Gunfoundry Road, Hyderabad 1; (Retail) Oxford Book and Sta-tionery Co., Scindia House, New Delhi ; 17 Park Street, Calcutta.

Pembangunan Ltd., 84, Gunung Sahari, Djakarta.

Mackenzie's Bookshop, Baghdad.

The Controller, Stationery Office, Dublin.

Blumstein's Bookstores Ltd., P. O. Box 4101, Tel Aviv.

Libreria lnternazionale U. Hoepli, Galleria Piazza Colonna, Rome ; A.E.I.O.U., Via Meravigli16, Milan.

Japan

Lebanon :

Malaya :

Mexico :

Netherlands :

New Zealand

Norway

Pakistan :

Panama :

Paraguay :

Peru :

Philippines :

Poland :

Portugal :

Spain :

Sweden :

Switzerland

Syria

Taiwan :

Thailand :

Tunisia :

Turkey

Union of S. Africa :

United Kingdom

U. S. A. :

Uruguay :

Venezuela

Yugoslavia ;

Other Countries :

SALES.-%GE!TS FOR 'AO PUBLICATIONS

Maruzen Company Ltd., 6 Tori-Nichome, Nihonbashi, Tokyo.

Librairie Universelle, Avenue des Français, Beirut.

Caxton Stationers Ltd., 13 Market Street, Kuala Lumpur.

Manuel Gómez Pezuela e Hijo, Donceles 12, México, D. F..

N. V. Martinus Nijhoff, Lange Voorhout 9, The Hague.

Whitcombe and Tombs Ltd., Auckland, Wellington, Hamilton, Christchurch, Dunedin,Invercargill, Timaru.

Johan Grundt Tanum Forlag, Kr. Augustsgt. 7a, Oslo.

East : Orient Longmans Private Ltd., 17 Nazimuddin Road, DaccaWest : W. F. Jeffrey Ltd., Mehorsons Estate. Wood Street, Karachi 2.

Agencia Internacionil de Publicaciones, J. Menéndez, Plaza de Arango No. 3, Panamá.

Agencia de Librerías de Salvador Nizza, Calle Pto. Franco No. 39-43, Asunción.

Librerfa Internacional del Perú, S. A., Casilla 1417, Lima.

The Modern Book Company. 518-520 Rizal Avenue. Manila,

Ars Polona, Krakowskie Przedmiescie 7, Warsaw.

Uvraria Bertrand S.A.R.L., Rua Garrett 73-75, Lisbon.

Librería Mundi-Prensa, Lagasca 38, Madrid ; José Bosch Librero, Ronda Universidad 11,Barcelona ; Librería General, Independencia 8, Saragossa.

C. E. Fritze, Fredsgatan 2, Stockholm 16 ; Gumperts A. B. Gateborg ; Lindstahls Bokhandel,Odengatan 22, Stockholm.

Libralrie Payot, S. A,, Lausanne and Geneva ; Hans Raunhardt, Kirchgasse 17, Zurich 1.

Librairie Universelle, Avenue Fouad 1", B. P. 336, Damascus.

The World Book Company Ltd., 99 Chungking South Road, Section 1, Taipei.

Requests for FAO publications should be addressed to FAO Regional Office for Asia andthe Far East, Maliwan Mansion, Bangkok.

Victor Boukhors. 4 rue Nocard, Tunis.

Librairie Hachette, 469 Istikial Caddesi, Beyoglu, Istanbul.

Van Schaik's Book Store, Pty. Ltd., P. 0. Box 724, Pretoria.

H. M. Stationery Office, P. 0. Box 569, London S.E. 1.,

Columbia University Press, international Documents Service, 2960 Broadway, New York 27, N. Y.

Hector d'Elia, Oficina de Representación de Editoriales, Plaza Cagancha 1342, Montevideo,

Suma, S. A., Sabana Grande 102, "El Recreo," Caracas.

Drzavno Preduzece, Jugoslovenska Knjiga, Terazije 27/11, Belgrade ; Cankarjeva Zalozba.

P. 0. B. 41, Ljubljana,

Requests from countries where sales agents have not yet been appointed may be sent toDistribution and Sales Section, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,Viale delle Tcrme di Caracalla, Rome, Italy,

FAO publications are priced in U. S. dollars and pounds ster/ing. Payment co FAO sales agents

may be made in local currencies.

Price : U.5.$2.50 or 12s. 6d.