1

FOOD AND FUEL

Global Perspectives in Food and Agriculture

Vienna, 15 March 2007

Alexander MüllerAssistant Director-General

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Ove

rvie

w

2

1. Ein kurzer Rückblick

Die Errungenschaften der modernen Landwirtschaft waren immens

Index der landwirtschaftlichen Bruttoproduktion1961/63 - 2001/03

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Gesamt Pro Kopf Gesamt Pro Kopf

Welt Entwicklungsländer

ProzentRü

ckb

lick

au

f d

as E

rrei

chte

Quelle: FAOSTAT

3

... bei einem drastischen Verfall der Weltmarktpreise

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

US

/t (

kon

sta

nte

We

chse

lku

rse

vo

n 1

99

0)

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inde

x, 1

990=

100 Palmöl ($/ton)

Sojabohnen ($/ton) Mais ($/ton) Reis ($/ton) Weizen ($/ton)

Landwirtschaft (Index) Nahrung (Index)

Quelle: Weltbank, “Pink Sheets”

1. Ein kurzer RückblickR

ück

bli

ck a

uf

das

Err

eich

te

4

World population: 1750 – 2050

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

To

tal p

op

ula

tio

n

(bill

ion

s)

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

An

nu

al in

cre

me

nts

(b

illio

ns)

Ass

um

pti

on

s

Further growth, but at drastically declining rates

Source: UN, 2003

5

Population growth: absolute increments

-100

102030405060708090

100

50-55

55-60

60-65

65-70

70-75

75-80

80-85

85-90

90-95

95-00

00-05

05-10

10-15

15-20

20-25

25-30

30-35

35-40

40-45

45-50

millions

Developed Developing World

Population growth is concentrated in developing countriesA

ssu

mp

tio

ns

6

Urban and Rural Population – 1950-2030

Source: UN, World Population Assessment 2002

Urbanization to accelerate

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Billion peopleUrban

Rural

expectedactual

Ass

um

pti

on

s

7

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

World

Industrial

EU-15

Ex-USSR

E. Europe

Developing

s.S. Africa

L-America

NENA

South Asia

East Asia

Percent

p.a.

1986-1998* 1998*-2015 2015-2030

GDP growth – per capita - by region

Source: World Bank, GEP 2003

1. The main determinantsA

ssu

mp

tio

ns

8

Distribution of income: today and in 2030

1997/99

Developed Countries

80%

Developing Countries

20%

2030 Developing Countries34%

Developed Countries66%

US$ 986 per personUS$ 13,416 per person

US$ 33,361 per person

US$ 3,408 per person

Increase by more than 200%

Ass

um

pti

on

s

Increase by more than 300%

9

Improvements in sight, but hardly enough to meet the target of the WFS

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1969/71 1999/01 2015 2030

Un

tere

rnä

hrt

e in

Mill

ion

en

Ostasien Südasien s.S-Afrika Latein Amerika

Naher Osten-Nordafrika Entwicklungsländer WFS-Ziel

Quelle: FAO 2003

MDG

1990/92

Fo

od

an

d n

utr

itio

n

10

Success and failure in fighting hunger

Source: FAO, SOFI, 2002

Fo

od

an

d n

utr

itio

n

11

Die wichtigsten regionalen Handelsströme für Getreide bis 2050

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

1961/63 1979/81 1999/01 2015 2030 2050

Millionen Tonnen

Transformationsländer Industrieländer Entwicklungsländer

Nettoimporte

Nettoexporte

Developing countries will remain big grain importersD

ie E

xpo

rtm

ärkt

e

12

Der Nahe Osten und Nordafrika werden auch künftig die größten Exportchancen bieten

Wo sind die Getreidemärkte der Zukunft?

-350

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

1961/63 1979/81 1999/01 2015 2030 2050

Millionen Tonnen

S-S Afrika Latein Amerika Naher Osten&Nordafrika Ostasien Südasien

Nettoimporte

Die

Exp

ort

mär

kte

14

Land in use versus suitable area for crop production

1066 1031

366

220

99

874

497

203 228 232 20786

387

265

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Latin Americaand

Caribbean

sub-SaharanAfrica

East Asia South Asia NearEast/North

Africa

Industrializedcountries

TransitionEconomies

mil

lio

n h

a

Suitable for rainfed cropproduction

Arable land use, 1997/99

T

he

reso

urc

e b

ase

15

Irrigation water withdrawal as a share of renewable water resources (%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

sub-

Sahar

an A

frica

Latin

Am

erica

Near E

ast/N

orth

Afri

ca

South

Asia

East A

sia

All dev

elopin

g co

untri

es

Today in 2030

4. What challenges for the resource base?

T

he

reso

urc

e b

ase

16

9Exajoule/a [1018 Joule]/a Millionen ha

Energiequelle: Potenzial und Verbrauch Jahr Welt OECD nicht-OECD Welt

Alle Quellen (TPES) 19732 253 157(62.3%) 95(37.7%)

20042 463 231(49.8%) 232(50.2%)

20302 691 285(41.2%) 406(58.8%)

20509 594-10389

Biomasse Aktueller Verbrauch 20042 4911 8 41

Theoretisches Potenzial >>2000 Globale Photosynthese: ~ 4000 EJ

Technisches Potenzial 19901 225 4812 17712

20501 400 8012 32012

Ökonomisches Potenzial 20501 158

Biotreibstoffe Ethanol7 (aktuell) 20043 0.84 0.34 0.51 9.524

Biodiesel7 (aktuell) 20033 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.474

Potenzial1 20501 5310

Verbrauch 2030 4.8(8.4)13 2.3(4.0)13 2.5(4.4)13

Ressourcen: Millionen ha

Agricultural land8 Genutzte Ackerflächen1997-99

1506 658 848 8504/5

Geeignete Ackerflächen 4188 14066 27826 (4730)

Ackerflächen für Biotreibstoffe

2004 14 =1% of land

2030 32.5 (57) =2% (3.4%) land

1.) Potential based on Schrattenholzer and Fischer, IIASA, 20002.) Based on IEA: Key energy statistics, 2006 (TPES), EIA (US) projections for 2030 are 684 EJ, 721 Q (BTU 1 British thermal unit (Btu) = 1,055.05585262 joules (J))3.) Derived from http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2005/Update49.htm, Earth Policy Institute4.) Assuming an average yield per hectare for ethanol of 4200 l (3000 l US maize, 5500 l Brazil cane, 6900 l France sugar beet) and of 3800 l/ha for biodiesel (average). Most recent yields are about 10% higher for cane and 20% higher for maize.5.) 850 million ha would be required to meet 2002 road transportation fuels needs (77 EJ) at current yields (l biofuel/ha), technology, and crop composition.6.) Area for developing and developed countries, not OECD and non OECD7.) Assuming an energy content of 34 MJ/l for biodiesel and 21.1 MJ/l for ethanol8.) Bruinsma (ed), World agriculture: towards 2015/2030, An FAO Perspective, 2003, total suitable land for rainfed agriculture9.) WEC/ IIASA Scenarios: 620 EJ for Scenario C1-C2, 1084 EJ for Scenario A1-A3, 23.8845 Mtoe = 1 EJ10.) IEA (2003), “Biofuels for Transport”, table 6.8.; road transportation in 2030 about 120 EJ; total transport: 132 EJ; EIA.11.) 15-60 EJ: most biomass fuels are not traded on world markets, estimates of consumption are highly uncertain. 12.) Based on regional estimates from Schrattenholzer and Fischer, IIASA, 200013) The IEA Energy Outlook 2006 assumes a 4% share in road transportation in 2030 in the reference case, 7% in the alternative scenario

Wie groß ist der Markt für Biomasse und Biotreibstoffe?D

as P

ote

nzi

al

17

Bioenergy potential per region: different scenarios, year 2050 Exajoules/yr

Source: Juergens and Mueller forthcoming 2007, based on data from WWI 2006)

77

121.5

176

183

198

0 100 200 300 400

Oceania

North America

CIS* & BalticStates

Latin America andthe Caribbean

Africa

[EJ/year]

18

Bioenergy potential per type of biomass: different scenarios, year 2050 Exajoules/yr

0 200 400 600 800

Organic Wastes

Dung

Agricultural Residues

Forest Residues

Energy Crops (marginal lands)

Energy Crops (current agri. lands)

Total

Total (more likely)

[Exajoules]

Source: Juergens and Mueller forthcoming 2007, based on data from Faaij 2006

19Daten: Nymex and EIA, J. Schmidhuber (2007)

Die

Bio

ener

gie

mär

kte

- P

reis

effe

kte

Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und Mindestpreiseffekt

Rohöl unterstützt Roh zucker Ölpreise über US$35/bbl "treiben" die Welt zucker preise an

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

31 January2000

31 January2001

31 January2002

31 January2003

31 January2004

31 January2005

31 January2006

31 January2007

US$/bbl

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Cts/lb

West Texas Intermediate Rohzuckerkontrakt Nr 11, NYBOT

20

Maismärkte im UmbruchIndex der internationalen Maispreise

(Basis: US yellow corn)

90

120

150

180

Jan Feb Mär Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez

Index %

2003 2004 2005 2006

Feb 2007: US$176/t

Weizenmärkte im UmbruchIndex der internationalen Weizenpreise

(Basis: US Hard Red Winter)

90

120

150

180

Jan Feb Mär Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez

Index %

2003 2004 2005 2006

Feb 2007: US$207/t

Mär

kte

im U

mb

ruch

Zyklische Effekte überlagern von strukturellen Umbruch

21

Parity prices: Petrol–Crude oil – EthanolVarious feedstocks and farming/production systems

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Petrol, US$/l

Cru

de

, U

S$

/bb

l

Gasoline-Crude US$ Cane Brazil, top producers

Cane, Brazil, average Cassava, Thaioil, 2 mio l/d

Cassava, Thailand, OTC joint venture Maize, US

Mixed feedstock Europe Palmoil, MPOB project

Th

e co

mp

etit

iven

ess

Competitiveness by feedstock

Josef Schmidhuber (2005)

BTL: Synfuel/Sunfuel

22

Wettbewerbsfähig als Heiz- und Brennstoffe?

Quelle: Eigene Berechnungen auf Basis von EIA, IEA, FAO Daten. J. Schmidhuber (2005)

Die

Bio

ener

gie

mär

kte

Heizkostenvergleich (nur Brennstoffkosten, 2004/05)

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

HeizölGas

hackschnitzelBrennholz(<15% H2O)

Brennholz(20% H2O)

PelletsMais US(trocken)

Weizen EU(15 % H2O)

RapsRapsöl

Fossile Energie Biomasse Biomasse-Getreide

US$/GJ

23

Reicht der Zollschutz für Ethanol?

tUS

tEU-40%tEU

Zölle, Preise und Produktionskosten für Ethanol

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6W

eiz

en

Ma

is

Zu

ck

err

üb

en

Zu

ck

err

oh

r

Ma

isEU BRA USA

€/l

P-kosten

CIF US

CIF EU

FOB BRA

MP US Ct/l

MP EU

tEUtUS

tEU-40%

Die

Bio

ener

gie

mär

kte

– P

reis

effe

kte

un

d R

isik

en

24

US ethanol-some market impacts

US ethanol production, use of maize and policy programmes

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1980 1986 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

millions (mt/m3)

Maize used in mmt Ethanol produced in million m3

Clean Air ActMTBE

RFS (8/05)

Th

e im

pac

ts o

n p

rice

s an

d m

arke

ts

25

Cross links: Impacts on international commodity prices

An additional 10 million tonnes of …

Sugar Maize Sugar andMaize

Soybeans and Maize

Sugar, Maize and

Soybeans

Correspondingenergy [biofuels]

0.195 EJ 0.087 EJ 0.282 EJ 0.167 EJ 0.349 EJ

Commodity … used for biofuelswould change international prices (percent) in the long-run by :

Sugar +9.8 +1.1 +11.3 +2.3 +13.8

Maize +0.4 +2.8 +3.4 +4.0 +4.2

Vegetable oils +0.3 +0.2 +0.2 +7.6 +7.8

Protein +0.4 -1.2 -1.2 -8.1 -7.6

Wheat +0.4 +0.6 +0.9 +1.8 +2.0

Rice +0.5 +1.0 +1.2 +1.1 +1.4

Beef +0.0 +0.2 +0.2 +0.4 +0.4

Poultry +0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -2.1 -2.0

Source: @2030 simulation results

Th

e im

pac

ts o

n p

rice

s an

d m

arke

ts

26

Bioenergy and Land Use Scenarios (2050) : IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001)

Scenario / Biomass Energy Requirement

Bioenergy

% Primary Energy Supply

Land for Biomass

EJ % Mha

Sørensen (1999) - bottom up assessment 178 74 -

IPCC (2001) - TAR - AIM - A1M 193 14 418

- TAR - A2 - ASF 71 27

- TAR - B1 - Image 95 13 268

- TAR - B2 - Message 105 12 288

- TAR - A1F1 (A1G) - Minicam 52 4 68

- TAR - A1T - Message 183 71 418

IPCC (1996) – Second Assessment Report 280

Average 145 31 292

Max 280 74 418

Min 52 4 68

27

Competition for Biomass

Source: Juergens (FAO) 2006, adapted from SEI/ESMAP 2005

28

Different Bioenergy Sources with different land requirements

Source: Faaij/FAO 2005

29

Land requirements for replacing 10% of petrolium based fuels in the respective region/country (based on average crop area and yield data for

2000-2004 and transport fuel consumption in 2004)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

EU Canada US Poland Brazil World (1) World (2)

Share of average crop area [%]

Source: based on data from WWI 2006

Notes: World 1/2: area relative to land used for cereals, oilseeds and sugar globally (World 1) and in five major biofuel producing regions (World 2).

30

Availability of land for bioenergy plantations in the EU and the

US

Source: Schlamadinger et al. 2002, p.63

Year of study / projection year

[Mha]Year of study / projection year

[Mha]

2005 0-19 1993 2-82010 13.5 2000 72010 15-20 2007 62020 20-25 2008 8-17

EU US

31

Land available for biomass production for energy in the EU

Source: EEA Report No 7/2006

32

Environmentally-compatible bioenergy potential from forests in the EU

Source: EEA Report No 7/2006

Notes: Calculations cover EU-25 Member States without Cyprus, Greece, Luxembourg and Malta

33

Determinants of Bioenergy Production

• Population growth and economic development• Energy prices• Food consumption: per capita calorie intake and composition

of diet• Land use patterns (feasibility of marginal/degraded lands)• Efficiency of food production: crop yields, livestock production• Forest productivity and sustainable harvest levels. • Competing demands for land: nature reserves,

endangered/protected ecosystems, recreation, amenity• Competing demands for wood and agriculture based bio-

materials.