Food and AgricultureIssues and Research Needs

Energy Climate Change Mitigation

Bruce A. McCarlDistinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University

mccarl@tamu.edu, http//ageco.tamu.edu/faculty/mccarl

Presented at Panel onResearch Priorities of the Food, Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Environment of 2050

February 2010

Climate Change Effects & AdaptationAnimal Disease

Climate Change the challenge

Warming

Associated with a lot more AtmosphericCO2

EmissionsRisingrapidly

The Arapahoe Glacier in Boulder County, Colorado, has shrunk dramatically since it was photographed in 1898. Measurements collected since 1960 suggest the glacier has thinned by at least 40 meters since then.It is the ultimate source of Boulder’s main water supply. 1898 2003

http://publicearth.com/places/glaciers/araphoe-glacier

Climate Change What is going on

Water at issue plus snow pack. 1898 2003

http://publicearth.com/places/glaciers/araphoe-glacier

Climate Change Evidence and projections

Big consequences for ag viability – 25% less acres 10% less animals

Climate Change Evidence and projections

Damage – Coastal

http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19526141.600-huge-sea-level-rises-are-coming--unless-we-act-now.html

If small glaciers and polar ice caps on the margins of Greenland and the Antarctic Peninsula melt, the projected rise in sea level will be around 0.5 m. Melting of the Greenland ice sheet would produce 7.2 m of sea-level riseMelting of the Antarctic ice sheet would produce 61.1 m of sea level rise.Collapse of the grounded interior reservoir of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would raise sea level by 5-6 m

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise#Greenland_contribution

http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/potential_impact_of_sea_level_rise_on_bangladesh

Climate change and future Research

Big decisions need to be made Info needed

Info typesSize and type of effects

Costs

Methods of Ag Adaptation effectiveness and type, benefits/costsdissemination methods and costs

Methods of MitigationEnergy only – ag effectsSequestration, Emission control, OffsetPolicy implementation

On to Bioenergy

Bioenergy – Why careScarcity and Fossil Fuel Cost

Onshore

Offshore

Global Conventional Oil Production May Peak SoonUS has as has Texas

Graph of Oil ProductionSource: Colin Campbell of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) Newsletter as in Wikapedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

Bioenergy – Why careScarcity and Fossil Fuel Cost

Lots of Oil But recovery cost will increaseSource: International Energy Agency Resources to Reserves Report http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/oil_gasSUM.pdf

Bioenergy – Why careSource of CO2 and greenhouse gasses – climate change

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/globalghg.html

Emissions shareUS EIA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.html

Most emissions from energy

0.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0700.0800.0

AL

AR

AZ

CA

CO

CT

DC

DE

FL

GA

HI

IA

ID

IL

IN

KS

KY

LA

MA

MD

ME

MI

MN

MO

MS

MT

NC

ND

NE

NH

NJ

NM

NV

NY

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VA

VT

WA

WI

WV

WY

2003 State by State Energy related CO2 emissions -- Texas wins

Bio Energy Research

Can it be an Alternative to fossil fuelsMethodsCostGHG implications

Market and Env implications of Ag bioenergy strategiesPotential supplyPrice effectsEnvironmental Effects

Policy Analysis and design

On to Animal disease

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks January 2006 to July 2006Source: http://www.oie.int/wahis

Countries Where an FMD Outbreak Occurred in 2009 Source: http://www.oie.int/wahis

Animal Disease why care?Recent outbreaks

Animal Disease why care?Recent outbreaks

History shows vulnerabilityUK FMD outbreak

6.25 million dead animals, loss in billions of $BSE in England

150 dead citizens, Fear and beef demandUS and Canadian BSE

Lost export marketsUS Avian Influenza events

Slaughtered animals in 10,000’s, Export market closuresAsian AI events

Animals and peopleSouth American FMD

Changed nature of beef trade

Animal Disease Research

How do we best protect – info needed

Disease VulnerabilityEstimationCategorization of effects

Strategy development and evaluation for AnticipationPreventionDetectionResponseRecovery

Policy Analysis (protect, treat, compensation, movement etc)