Food and Agriculture: A Vision for Illinois

Robert A. Easter, Ph.D.President, University of Illinois

Dean Emeritus – College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences

Illinois Agriculture circa 1915

www.ncfh.org/?pid=4&page=2

www.bae.ncsu

digital.library.okstate.edu/encyclopedia/entries/H/HO006.html

roselle.lib.il.us/about/digital-archive.php

Over the Horizon in 1915

Hybrid cornTractor powerAnhydrous fertilizerSoybeans as an oil and protein cropThe corn-soybean meal diet for pigs and poultryCapper-Volstead Act/CooperativesRural electricityFFA, Computers, GPS, Artificial Insemination/Flash-

Frozen Vegetables……..

The Questions Are ObviousWill there be enough food?Can the food system be made safe?What about water?Is our energy supply adequate and secure?How do agricultural systems adapt to a changing

climate?WHAT OPPORTUNITIES EXIST FOR ILLINOIS

AGRICULTURE

Can we produce enough food?

This is not a new question!

Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an

arithmetical ratio. A slight acquaintance with numbers will show the immensity of the first power in

comparison with the second

Thomas Malthus. 1798. An essay on the principle of population.

World Population Growth

Year Population, (millions)

1800 978

1900 1,650

1999 5,978

www.statistics.gov.uk

Food Production has increased at an incredible rate

Expansion of cultivated and grazed landsApplication of science to the discovery of new

technologiesTranslation of knowledge to practice through

educationEstablishment of market incentives and

supporting infrastructure

Have there been negative consequences?

Sure – and they continue to be recognized and addressed

1. Soil Loss2. Long-residual pesticides3. Depletion of geological

water4. Deforestation

1930’s Wind Erosion

1930’s Water Erosion

2008 Grass Waterways

Minimum Tillage Agriculture

What does the world look like today….

Population and Food

Year Population

2014 7.2 b

2050 9.1 b

Source: United Nations

Production in the developing countries will need to almost double…..

26%

Why?

Drivers of Food Demand

Population

Per capita income growth

Effects of Income GrowthVery low income people spend the first increments in purchasing power on food staples. As incomes rise further comes addition of fruits, vegetables, dairy products, animal protein, and edible oils.

And income growth is veryoften associated with urban migration……..

Projected World Population in Urban Centers, (Millions)

World Bank Development Indicators, 2000

Pop

ulat

ion

Percentage Change in Food Consumption 1990 to 2005

Type India China Brazil

Cereals 0 -20 120

Oil crops 70 140 10

Meat 20 140 70

Milk 20 200 20

Fish 20 130 -10

Fruits 30 250 -20

Vegetables 30 190 30

(FAO, 2007)

Increased Quality and Diversity of Diet

Lotus Hypermarket, Beijing, Sept 2005

Demand for meat will drive demand for feed grains.

Source: University of Illinois

Source: University of Illinois

How will Illinois Agriculture Participate in this Opportunity?

• As a source of feed grains?

• As a producer of value-added meat products?

I Am not Naïve to the ChallengesState and national policies

Lack of labor and cost of labor

Not-in-my-backyard attitude

From where will the grains and/or livestock products

originate?

Grains, oilseeds, pulses – where???

Interpretation: The darker the shading, the larger the percent of the land under that pixel that is in crops.Source: Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), University of Wisconsin.

Favorable climateFavorable soilsInfrastructureAccess to Technology and CapitalGovernment policies

And what will be the role of the millions at the bottom of the pyramid

How is technology made available to these farmers….

Technology – a personal example

Bob’s Technology Ken’s Technology

The Tools of Science Must Be Employed

One Solution—Make ‘Em BiggerGlobal Land Grab

There is a gold rush happening in Ethiopia, but it is not a hunt for the yellow metal. It is a quest for the green gold of fertile farmland. A nation more associated with periodic famine and acute childhood malnutrition than with agricultural bounty is leasing millions of hectares — an area the size of Belgium — to foreign companies, who want to grow and export food to places like Saudi Arabia, China, India and Europe.

Richard Schiffman, December 26, 2013, Gulf News.

                            

•

                                                                                                                                                                  

Officials want family-run farms to growMuch bigger. Is America the new model? Shijiazhuang

Economist: May 3, 2014

Bringing the Benefits of Technology to Small Holders

Energy a Changing Paradigm

America the Oil ExporterThe recent debate over sending U.S. oil abroad misses the point: The United States is already a budding export powerhouse.By ED MORSEJuly 09, 2014http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/07/america-the-oil-exporter-108707.html#ixzz37Ojz14pl

U.S. Energy Information Administration, July 25, 2013

There will continue to be growth in demand for alternatives to fossil-based energy…..

And… attention to efficiency of energy use

Tesla Motors Founder Martin Eberhard

Capturing Solar Energy

Biomass crops - Low Solar Pan- High

Source: University of Illinois Source: solarpanelsreviewsite.com

Electricity is dandy, but mobile, liquid fuel is

golden

Water – A personal story

Bob, About 1954

Same place – National News 2009

Water

Irrigation Was a Key Pillar of the Green Revolution

Geological water is being used at an unsustainable rate

Agricultural use is challenged by growing urban demands

Growing food with industrially-contaminated water is a human health hazard.

Water---Wise Use of a Precious Resource

The 2012 World Food Prize will be awarded to Dr. Daniel Hillel for his role in conceiving and implementing a radically new mode of bringing water to crops i n arid and dry land regions - known as “micro-irrigation.”

How about climate?

Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment (SoyFACE)

Professors Long and Ort, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign

Ten Years of Climate Change Research

“Overall these open-air investigations of the direct effects

of atmospheric and climatic change on soybean and

maize, the Midwest's two major crops, paint a pessimistic

picture for future productivity. However, the experiments

have also revealed significant variation within germplasm,

suggesting that targeted breeding could lessen the

impacts of climate change.”

Elizabeth Ainsworth et al., 2013

To a significant extent the Illinois economy for more than 100 years

has been built on agriculture• Crops and livestock – direct sales• Agricultural machinery – John Deere, CNH ….• Risk management – CBOT, CME …..• Agricultural Finance• Food industry – Kraft, Sara lee, OSI….• Grain traders – ADM…..

There is a foreboding sense that our global leadership role is at risk…..

Over the Horizon in 2015?

……………………

The future belongs to those who create it…..

FARM Illinois: A Partnership for Competitiveness and Sustainable Growth in Food, Agriculture, and Agribusiness

FARM Illinois is bringing together Illinois’ top agricultural, business, and economic leaders to develop

and advocate for the implementation of a comprehensive and integrated strategic plan for Illinois and the Chicago region to ensure the state is meeting

the 21st Century challenge of global food security.

The Founders

Christopher Kennedy, Chairman, Board of Trustees, University of Illinois

Terry Mazany, President and CEO, Chicago Community Trust

Renee Michaels, Vice President, Kinship Foundation

Michael Davidson, Senior Program Officer, Sustainable Development, The Chicago Community Trust

Christopher Magnuson, Executive Director of Operations, News & Communications, Illinois Farm Bureau

Committees

Production and Supply Chain

Transportation, Logistics, Physical and Financial Infrastructure

Sustainability and Community Economic Development

International Markets and Global Food Security

Global city--- a city generally considered to be a key node in the

global economic system

It is in our self interest that Chicago be the center of the global food and agricultural

system!