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5/13/2016 1
Food Aid Consultative Group
Spring 2016
CA
SSA
ND
RA
NELSO
N
5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2
Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical and Operational Performance Support Program (TOPS)
• Implementer-centered model: TOPS was designed to of direct benefit to the implementer community, directly responding to needs identified by the community with minimal mediation by Food for Peace. To a large degree, its implementation has reflected that. Do you think this same model is of value going forward?
• Supporting field-level implementation: TOPS has made great strides in expanding its reach from Washington DC to the country level through trainings, knowledge sharing meetings and other efforts. Do you think that further support would be valuable at the country level to support improved performance? If so, what form could this support take? Think structurally as well as in terms of capabilities or focus areas.
• Supporting emergency programs: Supporting FFP’s complex and multi-sectoral development programs has been a priority for the current TOPS mechanism. Would there be value in a future mechanism expanding more broadly into supporting improved implementation of emergency programs? If so, what focus areas would most benefit from this support?
•
5/17/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 3
Discussion Questions Exploring a potential TOPS follow-on mechanism
5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 4
Breakout Session: USDA International Food Aid Conference Brainstorm
5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 5
AGENDA
Arrivals and Registration
Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical and Operational Performance Support Program (TOPS)
Breakout Session: USDA International Food Aid Conference Brainstorm
Welcome and Agenda Overview
• Foreign Agricultural Service Director’s Remarks
• Food for Peace Director’s Remarks
• Farm Service Agency Director’s Remarks
Commodity Trends
Update on Global Impacts of El Niño + La Niña
Update on Local and Regional Procurement (LRP) Programs
Closing Remarks and Questions
5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 6
AGENDA
Arrivals and Registration
Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical and Operational Performance Support Program (TOPS)
Breakout Session: USDA International Food Aid Conference Brainstorm
Welcome and Agenda Overview
• Foreign Agricultural Service Director’s Remarks
• Food for Peace Director’s Remarks
• Farm Service Agency Director’s Remarks
Commodity Trends
Update on Global Impacts of El Niño + La Niña
Update on Local and Regional Procurement (LRP) Programs
Closing Remarks and Questions
United States
Department of
Agriculture
Foreign
Agricultural
Service
United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
Opening Remarks
Jocelyn Brown, Deputy Administrator
Office of Capacity Building and Development
United States
Department of
Agriculture
Foreign
Agricultural
Service
United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
Discussions
USDA International Food Assistance
Food for Progress
McGovern-Dole International School Feeding
Active Programs
Country Funding Levels
Learning Agenda
Q’s & A’s
United States
Department of
Agriculture
Foreign
Agricultural
Service
United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
FAS Mission
The core mission of FAS
is to facilitate trade and
international cooperation,
which are critical to the
economic vitality of the
U.S. agricultural sector
and the Administration’s
priority of jobs and
opportunity.
Trade Promotion
Trade Policy
Trade Capacity Building
and Food Security
Pillars Mission
United States
Department of
Agriculture
Foreign
Agricultural
Service
United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
Food For Progress (FFPr) Countries where Food for Progress projects are currently active
Country Key Bangladesh
Benin
Burkina Faso
Cameroon
Dominican Republic
East Timor
El Salvador
Ethiopia
Ghana
Guatemala Haiti
Honduras
Jordan
Kenya
Liberia
Madagascar
Mali
Mauritania
Mozambique
Nicaragua Phillipines
Republic of Senegal
Tanzania
Uganda
Yemen
$35,700,000
$61,257,571
$43,880,000
$67,500,605
$16,530,000
$21,000,000
$55,714,621
$27,740,000
$20,476,692
$32,178,916
$42,650,000
$5,660,000
$57,620,573
$39,981,000
$45,000,000
$47,600,000
$20,510,000
$63,115,388
$53,881,614
$17,165,755
$73,240,000
$10,000,000
$22,996,581
$49,740,100
$12,860,000
Grand Total: $919,812,380
United States
Department of
Agriculture
Foreign
Agricultural
Service
United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
McGovern-Dole Countries where Food for Progress projects are currently active
$48,292,000
$51,400,000
$26,000,000
$10,000,000
$26,000,000
$23,000,000
$36,000,000
$21,000,000
$36,000,000
$20,000,000
$29,200,000
$38,000,000
$20,500,000
$54,000,000
$26,000,000
$20,500,000
$34,500,000
$21,000,000
$101,000,000
$26,000,000
$28,000,000
$39,300,000
$26,958,000
$11,000,000
Country Key
Bangladesh Benin
Burkina Faso
Cambodia
Cameroon
Cote D'Ivoire
Ethiopia
Guatemala
Guinea Bissau
Haiti Honduras
Kenya
Kyrgyzstan
Lao
Liberia
Malawi
Mali
Mozambique
Nepal
Nicaragua
Republic of Congo
Republic of Senegal
Rwanda
Sierra Leone
Tanzania Grand Total: $783,819,000
United States
Department of
Agriculture
Foreign
Agricultural
Service
United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
$0.00
$20,000,000.00
$40,000,000.00
$60,000,000.00
$80,000,000.00
$100,000,000.00
$120,000,000.00
$140,000,000.00
$160,000,000.00
$180,000,000.00
$200,000,000.00
Ban
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Bu
rkin
a Fa
so
Cam
bo
dia
Cam
ero
on
Co
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’Ivo
ire
Do
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ican
Rep
ub
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East
Afr
ica
(Ke
nya
, Tan
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Mal
awi)
East
Tim
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El S
alva
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Eth
iop
ia
Gh
ana
Gu
ate
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a
Gu
ine
a B
issa
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Hai
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Hai
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R
Ho
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ura
s
Jord
an
Ke
nya
Kyr
gyzs
tan
Lao
Peo
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's D
emo
crat
ic R
ep
ub
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Lib
eria
Mad
agas
car
Mal
awi
Mal
i
Mau
rita
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Mo
zam
biq
ue
Nep
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arag
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Ph
ilip
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Re
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Rw
and
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Sie
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Tan
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Uga
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Yem
en
Active Funding by Country
McGovern-Dole
Food for Progress
United States
Department of
Agriculture
Foreign
Agricultural
Service
United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
Africa
39%
Caribbean
16%
Central
America
16%
Asia
29%
Food for Progress Food Assistance
Commodities By Region, FY 2015
Africa
78%
Western
Hemisphere
22%
McGovern Dole Food Assistance
Commodities By Region, FY 2015
FY2015 Statistics
Fortified
Blended
Food
Grain
Other
Pulses
Rice
Veg Oil
Wheat
Products
McGovern-Dole Food Assistance
Commodity Mix, FY 2015
Grains
Other
Rice Veg Oil
Wheat
Products
Food for Progress Food Assistance
Commodity Mix, FY 2015
United States
Department of
Agriculture
Foreign
Agricultural
Service
United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
Food for Progress and McGovern-Dole
Learning Agendas
Purpose
• Contribute to the global
knowledge base on
what works
• Improve evidence-
based decision making
• Improve program
design and impacts
• Prioritize USDA
research and evaluation
Development Process
• Intervention mapping
• Systematic reviews
• Researchers roundtable
• Researchers webinar
• Practitioners workshop
• Field visits
United States
Department of
Agriculture
Foreign
Agricultural
Service
United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
McGovern Dole School Meals Learning Agenda
MGD Learning Agenda themes: 1) school meals program systems, 2) education
and literacy, 3) health, 4) nutrition, and 5) agriculture
Research questions include:
What are the most supportive policies affecting the success of school meal
programs, and what are the necessary conditions for these policies to be
implemented and to be effective?
What school meal modality (breakfast, lunch, snack, or a combination thereof) is
the most effective at improving immediate outcomes, such as attendance or
concentration, versus longer-term outcomes, such as cognitive development or
learning achievement?
What community-level systems of governance and management are required for
the successful implementation and sustainability of school meal programs?
What is the effect of school based micronutrient supplementation and/or
fortification on long-term educational outcomes such cognition and knowledge
acquisition?
United States
Department of
Agriculture
Foreign
Agricultural
Service
United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
FFPr Learning Agenda themes: 1) value chains, 2) market linkages, 3) quality
and standards, 4) risk and uncertainty, and 5) gender (cross-cutting)
Research questions include:
To what extent can informal and/or formal contracts be effective at reducing
risk among farmers, suppliers and traders?
How can technology better support farmers and traders in meeting required
quality standards in a collaborative and multi-beneficial manner?
To what extent does increasing market linkages promote economic growth
among buyers, sellers, and processors at various levels, such as companies,
SMEs, smallholders, the ultra-poor, and middlemen traders? What levels and
types of market linkages effectively expand the market overall?
What are the best methods to improve the post-harvest stage of the value
chain, in order to maintain quality and value of crops after the harvest?
Food for Progress Expanding Trade and Markets
Learning Agenda
United States
Department of
Agriculture
Foreign
Agricultural
Service
United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
Facility Guarantee Program
Designed to boost sales of U.S. agricultural commodities in countries where demand may be limited to inadequate storage, processing, handling, or distribution capabilities.
Under the FGP, USDA provides credit guarantees to facilitate the financing of manufactured goods and U.S. services to improve or establish agriculture-related facilities in emerging markets.
Repayment terms may range up to 10 years, depending on details of the transaction and the emerging market.
Approved transactions must primarily benefit U.S. agricultural commodity exports, and must be reviewed for
potential environmental and social impacts.
Program will be made operational during fiscal year 2016.
For more information, contact Amy Slusher at [email protected].
United States
Department of
Agriculture
Foreign
Agricultural
Service
United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
Questions?
United States
Department of
Agriculture
Foreign
Agricultural
Service
United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
Food for Progress (FFPr)
The Food for Progress Program helps developing countries and emerging
democracies modernize and strengthen their agricultural sectors.
Food for Progress has two principal objectives: to improve agricultural
productivity and to expand trade of agricultural products.
Past Food for Progress projects have trained farmers in animal and plant health,
improved farming methods, developed road and utility systems, established
producer cooperatives, provided microcredit, and developed agricultural value
chains. Program participants have included private voluntary organizations,
foreign governments, universities, and intergovernmental organizations
United States
Department of
Agriculture
Foreign
Agricultural
Service
United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
McGovern-Dole School Feeding
The McGovern–Dole International Food for Education and Child Nutrition
Program helps support education, child development and food security in low-
income, food-deficit countries around the globe.
The key objective of the McGovern-Dole Program is to reduce hunger and
improve literacy and primary education, especially for girls. By providing school
meals, teacher training and related support, McGovern-Dole projects help boost
school enrollment and academic performance.
McGovern-Dole projects are conducted by non-profit charitable organizations,
cooperatives, the United Nations World Food Program and other international
organizations. FAS announces a list of priority countries each year, based on
factors such as per-capita income and literacy and malnutrition rates.
5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 21
AGENDA
Arrivals and Registration
Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical and Operational Performance Support Program (TOPS)
Breakout Session: USDA International Food Aid Conference Brainstorm
Welcome and Agenda Overview
• Foreign Agricultural Service Director’s Remarks
• Food for Peace Director’s Remarks
• Farm Service Agency Director’s Remarks
Commodity Trends
Update on Global Impacts of El Niño + La Niña
Update on Local and Regional Procurement (LRP) Programs
Closing Remarks and Questions
5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 22
Food for Peace Director
Remarks
FY 2015 + 2016 Budget Overview
GAO/Hill Update
FFP Strategy
Development Programming Update
OFDA/FFP Coordination
World Humanitarian Summit
5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 23
U.S. Government FY 2015 Food Assistance Graphs
Africa
88%
Western
Hemisphere
1%
Near East
4%
South and
Central Asia
7%
U.S. GOVERNMENT FOOD ASSISTANCE
BY REGION FY 2015
Wheat/
Wheat
Products
33%
Grains and
Fortified/
Blended Food
Products
45%
Pulses
12%
Vegetable Oil
6%
Other
4%
U.S. GOVERNMENT COMMODITY MIX
FY 2015
5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 24
USAID FY 2015 Food Assistance by Metric Tons
Africa
84%
Near East
10%
South and
Central Asia
6%
Western
Hemisphere
0%
EMERGENCY FOOD ASSISTANCE
Africa
76%
South and
Central Asia
21%
Western
Hemisphere
3%
DEVELOPMENT FOOD ASSISTANCE
5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 25
USAID FY 2015 Cost Breakdown
Commodity
Value
29%
Ocean Freight
9%
Inland Freight
7%
ITSH
35%
202(e)
20%
USAID FY 2015 COST BREAKDOWN
• $1.7 billion in Title II for emergency and development funding
• $921 million in International Disaster Assistance/Overseas
Contingency Operations funding
• $80 million in Community Development Funds
• 26% increase in resources over FY15
• Both Agriculture and State/Foreign Operations bills have levels higher
than the FY16 Administration Budget Request in order to help meet
pressing needs of El Niño and conflict in Syria.
• To date in FY16, USAID/FFP has programmed approximately 1.1
million MT of commodities (compared to 1.05 million MT in FY15)
5/17/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 26
USAID FY2016 Budget Overview
5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 27
AGENDA
Arrivals and Registration
Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical and Operational Performance Support Program (TOPS)
Breakout Session: USDA International Food Aid Conference Brainstorm
Welcome and Agenda Overview
• Foreign Agricultural Service Director’s Remarks
• Food for Peace Director’s Remarks
• Farm Service Agency Director’s Remarks
Commodity Trends
Update on Global Impacts of El Niño + La Niña
Update on Local and Regional Procurement (LRP) Programs
Closing Remarks and Questions
USDA/USAID Business Management
Improvement (BMI) Project
FACG Update
May 13, 2016
29 Copyright © Capgemini 2016. All Rights Reserved
In collaboration with
The Business Management
Improvement (BMI) Project
is a business process re-engineering project to
assist USDA (FSA, FAS) and USAID in reviewing
and updating processes used in the ordering,
procurement, delivery, receiving, and payment of
commodities in support of domestic and international
food aid programs.
Project Overview
30 Copyright © Capgemini 2016. All Rights Reserved
In collaboration with
1 Validate Vision
2 Current State
(As-Is)
3 Future State
(To-Be)
4 Business
Case
5 Implement-ation Plan
BMI Project Overall Progress
Oct 2015 -
Feb 2016
Feb 2016-
May 2016
May 2016-
Sept 2016
Sept 2016-
Dec 2016
Dec 2016-
Feb 2016
Currently Conducting As-Is Assessment and Planning
the To-Be Phase
31 Copyright © Capgemini 2016. All Rights Reserved
In collaboration with
BMI Project Stakeholders
-FAS, FSA, USAID
-WFP
-Freight Forwarders/Brokers
-PVOs
-Commodity Vendors
-Freight Vendors
-WFP
-USAID Pre-Positioned Warehouses
Stakeholder group includes a variety of organizations
including U.S. government agencies, vendors, WFP and
PVOs, and other supply chain stakeholders
-Pre-Positioned
Warehouse
-Stevedores
-Ports
32 Copyright © Capgemini 2016. All Rights Reserved
In collaboration with
Outcomes from the Validate Vision Phase
Validate Vision
Identified Objectives for the
Future State
B. Create an Optimal Supply Chain
C. Increase Supply Chain Velocity
A. Achieve Perfect Order
Fulfillment
D. Build a Strong Foundation for a
High Performance Supply Chain
Validated objectives for future state, and
prioritized top processes 1
Held Workshop to Identify
Prioritized Processes
33 Copyright © Capgemini 2016. All Rights Reserved
In collaboration with
Conducting a Current State Assessment
Conducting Workshops, Developing Process Maps and Narratives,
Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Assessing current state, identifying As-Is
processes, challenges, and opportunities
across the in-kind food aid supply chain
Current State
(As-Is) 2
34 Copyright © Capgemini 2016. All Rights Reserved
In collaboration with
Planning for the To-Be Phase
• Kickoff Call • Early June
• Series of Workshops • Weekly, June-August
• To-Be ASE DesignSession • August 23-25
• Documentation & Finalization • September
To-Be Activities
Developing redesigned processes through a
collaborative workshop series and culminating
in a three-day workshop to gain concurrence
on recommendations
Conduct As-Is
Future State
(To-Be) 3
5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 35
AGENDA
Arrivals and Registration
Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical and Operational Performance Support Program (TOPS)
Breakout Session: USDA International Food Aid Conference Brainstorm
Welcome and Agenda Overview
• Foreign Agricultural Service Director’s Remarks
• Food for Peace Director’s Remarks
• Farm Service Agency Director’s Remarks
Commodity Trends
Update on Global Impacts of El Niño + La Niña
Update on Local and Regional Procurement (LRP) Programs
Closing Remarks and Questions
FSA-EPAS 36
COMMODITY MARKET OUTLOOK Food Aid Consultative Group
Spring 2016
Pete Riley
Director, Food Grains Analysis Group
Economic and Policy Analysis Staff
USDA/Farm Service Agency
Washington, DC 20250
202-720-7787
May 13, 2016
FSA-EPAS
The Starting Point: A Low Price Environment FAO Indices through April 2016
37
FSA-EPAS
Large Global Food Supplies in 2016
Overall Outlook Remains Favorable for End Users
• World supplies of major grains are huge and carryover stocks for
2016 very large.
• The oilseed outlook is tighter as demand gains outpace supply
increase.
• El Nino: impact was relatively minor globally, but severe in several
locations and for certain crops.
• Grain prices declining in 2016 but increases likely for soybeans,
pulses, and sugar.
• Huge production response might lead to lower pulse prices after
harvest.
• Global dairy market remains depressed (weak prices) in 2016 but
expected to improve gradually into 2017.
38
Data presented today based on USDA’s May 2016 forecasts,
the first for the 2016/17 year.
FSA-EPAS
Sharp Downturn for U.S. Agriculture
• Another year of low income on
low crop prices and sticky
input costs.
• Livestock sector faring better
as lower crop prices mean
cheaper feed.
• Very competitive international
markets limit U.S. export gains.
• The domestic markets are
relatively mature, i.e. slow
growth.
• Big gains in biofuel have
stopped. $0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
Net farm income for 2016
forecast down 55 percent from
2013 record Billion
39
FSA-EPAS
The Global Economy is Weak Pick another word? Moribund, tepid, staid, dour, etc.
• The global economy is moving
slowly, with more ‘flashpoints’
than any time in recent
memory. *
• China’s slowdown and weak
commodity prices taking their
toll on emerging markets.
• Low incomes and large
supplies suggest low ag prices
continue and do not bode well
for most farmers.
• However, the dollar has been a
bit weaker in recent weeks and
oil prices have been rising.
40
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
But Oil Prices Are Starting to Increase
Crude $ per barrel, WTI weekly
*Source: Chief Financial Officer, Proctor and Gamble
FSA-EPAS
Implications of Poor Macroeconomic Outlook
• Weak demand for food and agricultural commodities will limit
upward pressure on prices.
• Weak income will limit many countries’ ability to purchase food
commercially.
• In regions hard hit by El Nino, lack of money will constrain efforts to
recover from serious food shortfalls.
• Poor economic outlook means very low interest rates.
• The commodity price crash in recent years burned many investors.
• However, some funds desperate for higher returns are starting to
move back into commodities, raising volatility.
41
FSA-EPAS
Soybean and Soy Meal Markets on Fire Recently
Cash prices for soybeans
up 20 percent since March 1
$7.00
$7.50
$8.00
$8.50
$9.00
$9.50
$10.00
$10.50
2015/16 Per bushel
What’s going on?
• Fund investments underlie the
dramatic rally.
• It started on higher palm oil
prices, and appreciation of
Brazil’s currency.
• Accelerated as flooding hit
Argentina’s soy crop at harvest.
• Even with some losses, South
American crop is still large, but
strong demand partly accounts for
the market response.
42
FSA-EPAS
South American Soybean Production Weather problems reduce 2015 crops now being harvested
Crop forecast lowered 4 percent this month
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
Argentina Mil MT
Crop forecast lowered 1 percent this month
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
Brazil Mil MT
43
FSA-EPAS
Global Production and Consumption up 2
Percent for Both Grains and Oilseeds in 2016
2.1
2.15
2.2
2.25
2.3
2.35
2.4
2.45
2.5
2.55
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
Total Grains
Prod Consumption
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
Total Oilseeds
Prod Cons
Mil. MT
44
Bil. MT
FSA-EPAS
Global Ending Stocks: Record Large
for Grains, Shrinking for Oilseeds
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Total Grains
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Total Oilseeds Mil MT
45
Mil. MT
FSA-EPAS
U.S. Farmers Will Cut Acreage
Only Modestly in 2016*
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
Planted area major crops • Corn plantings up nearly 6
million acres, as producers try
to offset low prices with high
volume.
• Rice and cotton area up,
declines for other grains and
soybeans indicated by
producers.
• Big gains for pulses in response
to soaring prices: lentils up 72
percent from 2015, dry edible
peas 25 percent, with large
increases in Canada as well.
46
Million acres
* Based on Prospective Plantings survey, March 2016
FSA-EPAS
Production Will Outpace Use for Corn,
Wheat, and Rice, But Not Soybeans
• Record corn crop in store will
lead to build in ending stocks to
over 2 billion bushels, the
highest since 1987.
• Wheat crop to shrink, but
stocks also projected at highest
since 1987.
• Rice stocks pegged at 30-year
high on biggest crop in 6 years.
• Soybean stocks to fall with
crop down 3 percent, use up 5
percent.
47
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Ending stocks
Corn
Soybeans
FSA-EPAS
U.S. Prices (metric ton equivalent)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 F
Wheat $286 $252 $220 $180 $151
Rice, LG $320 $340 $262 $243 $220
Soybeans $529 $478 $371 $325 $334
Soy Meal $516 $540 $406 $342 $353
Soy Oil $1,038 $842 $697 $661 $705
Corn $271 $176 $146 $142 $132
Sorghum $249 $168 $159 $128 $124
48
Prices received by farmers and wholesale
soymeal and oil prices
FSA-EPAS
U.S. Prices (metric ton equivalent)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 F
Dry Peas $346 $322 $265 $276 $276
Lentils $456 $437 $538 $672 $694
Large
Chickpeas $835 $681 $631 $683 $705
Small
Chickpeas $604 $500 $458 $529 $551
Peanuts $664 $549 $485 $423 $403
49
Prices received by farmers
FSA-EPAS
Perspective on the Current
Agricultural Downturn
• Farmers had expected lower prices but they had not
thought that “prices would drop as low as they did.”
• They borrowed more money “to keep themselves
going…”
• “in the face of a continuing decline in prices of almost all
of their crops, they put out ample acreage in the spring…”
• “Fortunately, there is a brighter side to the picture…
prices for livestock are much higher” than for grain.
50
FSA-EPAS
Perspective on the Current
Agricultural Downturn
• Farmers had expected lower prices but they had not
thought that “prices would drop as low as they did.”
• They borrowed more money “to keep themselves
going…”
• “in the face of a continuing decline in prices of almost all
of their crops, they put out ample acreage in the spring…”
• “Fortunately, there is a brighter side to the picture…
prices for livestock are much higher” than for grain.
Source: Henry C. Wallace, The Secretary’s Report to the
President, Yearbook of Agriculture 1921
51
FSA-EPAS
Historical View of Ag Cycles Illustrated by the Price of Corn (per bushel)
1908-1971 1971-2016F
52
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
19
08
19
11
19
14
19
17
19
20
19
23
19
26
19
29
19
32
19
35
19
38
19
41
19
44
19
47
19
50
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
World War I
Post World War II
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
19
71
19
73
19
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97
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99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
USSR begins huge grain imports
Commodity boom, Growth in ethanol
5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 53
AGENDA
Arrivals and Registration
Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical and Operational Performance Support Program (TOPS)
Breakout Session: USDA International Food Aid Conference Brainstorm
Welcome and Agenda Overview
• Foreign Agricultural Service Director’s Remarks
• Food for Peace Director’s Remarks
• Farm Service Agency Director’s Remarks
Commodity Trends
Update on Global Impacts of El Niño + La Niña
Update on Local and Regional Procurement (LRP) Programs
Closing Remarks and Questions
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
May 13, 2016
FOOD SECURITY IMPLICATIONS
OF THE 2015/16 EL NIÑO
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
55
Key Messages
The 2015/16 El Niño is dissipating, but has already contributed to
widespread drought across many areas in Central America, the Caribbean,
East Africa, and Southern Africa.
In countries covered by FEWS NET ~44 million people will be in Crisis (IPC
Phase 3) or worse during FY16. This reflects a 50% increase compared to
FEWS NET’s estimates for FY15. This event comes on top of other ongoing
large-scale emergencies (Yemen, South Sudan, NE Nigeria and Syria).
It is most likely there will be a rapid transition to La Niña in the second half
of 2016, increasing the likelihood of drought in the Horn of Africa during
late 2016.
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
56
El Niño/La Niña
Anomalous oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Pacific that
influence climate around the world
Source: NOAA
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
57
El Niño impacts June – September 2015
Source: FEWS NET
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
58
Forecast El Niño impacts October 2015 – March 2016
Source: FEWS NET
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
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FOOD SECURITY IMPLICATIONS
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
60
Estimated FY16 emergency food assistance needs
FY16: ~44 million people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or
worse in FEWS NET countries
Assistance needs are +50% vs. FY15
Half of FEWS NET countries and ~40% of food
insecure households are directly impacted by El Niño
■ ■
■
■ Large-scale food security crises not related to El Nino
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
61
Primera and Postrera rainfall far below normal
2015 Postrera percent of normal cumulative rainfall,
July 1 – October 10
2015 Primera dryness ranking compared to
1981-2015 record
Source: FEWS NET/USGS Source: FEWS NET/USGS
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
62
Ethiopia Mar-Sep 2015 rainfall (CHIRPS) as a percent of normal
Source: FEWS NET/USGS
Projected food security outcomes, June to September 2016
Source: FEWS NET
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
63
East Africa Other areas of concern
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) percent of normal,
September 5-16, 2015
Source: FEWS NET/USGS
Oct-Dec 2015 rainfall (ARC2) as a percent of normal
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
64
Southern Africa
October 2015 – February 2016 rainfall anomaly (CHIRPS)
percent of the 1982-2011 average
Source: FEWS NET/USGS
Ranking of Oct 2015 – Mar 2016 rainfall
vs. the previous 34 years
Source: FEWS NET/USGS
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
65
Peak needs in Southern Africa expected late 2016/early 2017
Projected food security outcomes, June to September 2016
Source: FEWS NET/USGS
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
66
ENSO Forecast
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
67
Forecast La Niña impacts October 2016 – May 2017
Source: FEWS NET
__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
68
For more information
To subscribe to FEWS NET’s reports, please visit www.fews.net
Peter Thomas
Decision Support Advisor
202-955-7537
5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 69
AGENDA
Arrivals and Registration
Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical and Operational Performance Support Program (TOPS)
Breakout Session: USDA International Food Aid Conference Brainstorm
Welcome and Agenda Overview
• Foreign Agricultural Service Director’s Remarks
• Food for Peace Director’s Remarks
• Farm Service Agency Director’s Remarks
Commodity Trends
Update on Global Impacts of El Niño + La Niña
Update on Local and Regional Procurement (LRP) Programs
Closing Remarks and Questions
5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 70
Local and Regional Procurement Programs (LRP)
LRP Fiscal Year 2015 Overview
LRP Fiscal Year 2015 Analysis & Findings
LRP Policy
Modality Decision Tool (MDT)
5/17/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 71
LRP Fiscal Year 2015 Overview
FY 15: $2.16 billion
Other
76% LRP
24%
Disaggregated by
Modality
72%
6%
9%
12%
1%
LRP Disaggregated by Region
Asia/Near
East
East
Africa/Horn
Central/
Southern
Africa
West Africa
}
5/17/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 72
LRP Fiscal Year 2015 Analysis & Findings
• Tools: Utilized 3 different methodologies
examining cost-efficiency.
–Direct Transfer Percentage
–Comparable Basket
–Cost Per Metric Ton
5/17/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 73
LRP Fiscal Year 2015 Analysis & Findings
5/17/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 74
FFPIB 16-01: Award Requirements for Source and
Origin of Local, Regional, and International
Procurement (LRP)
• FFP defines regional procurement as commodities
procured within the same continent as the
country in which they will be distributed.
• FFP requires reporting on both source and origin;
commodities of international origin will require
FFP Director approval.
• Commodities must be procured from countries
up to Lower Middle Income on the OECD DAC
List.
5/17/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 75
Modality Decision Tool
• FFP has created a “Modality Decision Tool” to
guide decision-making:
5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 76
AGENDA
Arrivals and Registration
Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical and Operational Performance Support Program (TOPS)
Breakout Session: USDA International Food Aid Conference Brainstorm
Welcome and Agenda Overview
• Foreign Agricultural Service Director’s Remarks
• Food for Peace Director’s Remarks
• Farm Service Agency Director’s Remarks
Commodity Trends
Update on Global Impacts of El Niño + La Niña
Update on Local and Regional Procurement (LRP) Programs
Closing Remarks and Questions
USDA Local and Regional Procurement Program
Presented by: Ingrid Ardjosoediro
Chief, Food for Education| Food Aid Division | Office of Capacity Building and Development |
Foreign Agricultural Service
USDA Pilot LRP Program Summary
Program Type
Development($19.8 million)
Emergency($32.0 million)
Update on the USDA LRP Program
• USDA is finalizing regulations and expects to publish the proposed rule in the Federal Register for public comments soon.
• Request for Proposals and deadlines will be posted on the FAS Website.
• Funding for FY 2016 is $5 M.
How will the USDA LRP Program prioritize funding?
• Development programs, although if a need arises emergency programs may be approved.
• McGovern-Dole International Food for Education and Child Nutrition Projects as established under section 3107 of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (7 U.S.C. 1736o–1).
• A majority of the projects will be funded in Africa and procure eligible commodities that are produced in Africa as provided by statute.
Thank you
CLOSING REMARKS AND QUESTIONS
5/13/2016 82 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016