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5/13/2016 1 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 CASSANDRA NELSON

Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

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Page 1: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

5/13/2016 1

Food Aid Consultative Group

Spring 2016

CA

SSA

ND

RA

NELSO

N

Page 2: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2

Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical and Operational Performance Support Program (TOPS)

Page 3: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

• Implementer-centered model: TOPS was designed to of direct benefit to the implementer community, directly responding to needs identified by the community with minimal mediation by Food for Peace. To a large degree, its implementation has reflected that. Do you think this same model is of value going forward?

• Supporting field-level implementation: TOPS has made great strides in expanding its reach from Washington DC to the country level through trainings, knowledge sharing meetings and other efforts. Do you think that further support would be valuable at the country level to support improved performance? If so, what form could this support take? Think structurally as well as in terms of capabilities or focus areas.

• Supporting emergency programs: Supporting FFP’s complex and multi-sectoral development programs has been a priority for the current TOPS mechanism. Would there be value in a future mechanism expanding more broadly into supporting improved implementation of emergency programs? If so, what focus areas would most benefit from this support?

5/17/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 3

Discussion Questions Exploring a potential TOPS follow-on mechanism

Page 4: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 4

Breakout Session: USDA International Food Aid Conference Brainstorm

Page 5: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 5

AGENDA

Arrivals and Registration

Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical and Operational Performance Support Program (TOPS)

Breakout Session: USDA International Food Aid Conference Brainstorm

Welcome and Agenda Overview

• Foreign Agricultural Service Director’s Remarks

• Food for Peace Director’s Remarks

• Farm Service Agency Director’s Remarks

Commodity Trends

Update on Global Impacts of El Niño + La Niña

Update on Local and Regional Procurement (LRP) Programs

Closing Remarks and Questions

Page 6: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 6

AGENDA

Arrivals and Registration

Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical and Operational Performance Support Program (TOPS)

Breakout Session: USDA International Food Aid Conference Brainstorm

Welcome and Agenda Overview

• Foreign Agricultural Service Director’s Remarks

• Food for Peace Director’s Remarks

• Farm Service Agency Director’s Remarks

Commodity Trends

Update on Global Impacts of El Niño + La Niña

Update on Local and Regional Procurement (LRP) Programs

Closing Remarks and Questions

Page 7: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

United States

Department of

Agriculture

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

United States Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

Opening Remarks

Jocelyn Brown, Deputy Administrator

Office of Capacity Building and Development

Page 8: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

United States

Department of

Agriculture

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

United States Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

Discussions

USDA International Food Assistance

Food for Progress

McGovern-Dole International School Feeding

Active Programs

Country Funding Levels

Learning Agenda

Q’s & A’s

Page 9: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

United States

Department of

Agriculture

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

United States Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

FAS Mission

The core mission of FAS

is to facilitate trade and

international cooperation,

which are critical to the

economic vitality of the

U.S. agricultural sector

and the Administration’s

priority of jobs and

opportunity.

Trade Promotion

Trade Policy

Trade Capacity Building

and Food Security

Pillars Mission

Page 10: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

United States

Department of

Agriculture

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

United States Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

Food For Progress (FFPr) Countries where Food for Progress projects are currently active

Country Key Bangladesh

Benin

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Dominican Republic

East Timor

El Salvador

Ethiopia

Ghana

Guatemala Haiti

Honduras

Jordan

Kenya

Liberia

Madagascar

Mali

Mauritania

Mozambique

Nicaragua Phillipines

Republic of Senegal

Tanzania

Uganda

Yemen

$35,700,000

$61,257,571

$43,880,000

$67,500,605

$16,530,000

$21,000,000

$55,714,621

$27,740,000

$20,476,692

$32,178,916

$42,650,000

$5,660,000

$57,620,573

$39,981,000

$45,000,000

$47,600,000

$20,510,000

$63,115,388

$53,881,614

$17,165,755

$73,240,000

$10,000,000

$22,996,581

$49,740,100

$12,860,000

Grand Total: $919,812,380

Page 11: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

United States

Department of

Agriculture

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

United States Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

McGovern-Dole Countries where Food for Progress projects are currently active

$48,292,000

$51,400,000

$26,000,000

$10,000,000

$26,000,000

$23,000,000

$36,000,000

$21,000,000

$36,000,000

$20,000,000

$29,200,000

$38,000,000

$20,500,000

$54,000,000

$26,000,000

$20,500,000

$34,500,000

$21,000,000

$101,000,000

$26,000,000

$28,000,000

$39,300,000

$26,958,000

$11,000,000

Country Key

Bangladesh Benin

Burkina Faso

Cambodia

Cameroon

Cote D'Ivoire

Ethiopia

Guatemala

Guinea Bissau

Haiti Honduras

Kenya

Kyrgyzstan

Lao

Liberia

Malawi

Mali

Mozambique

Nepal

Nicaragua

Republic of Congo

Republic of Senegal

Rwanda

Sierra Leone

Tanzania Grand Total: $783,819,000

Page 12: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

United States

Department of

Agriculture

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

United States Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

$0.00

$20,000,000.00

$40,000,000.00

$60,000,000.00

$80,000,000.00

$100,000,000.00

$120,000,000.00

$140,000,000.00

$160,000,000.00

$180,000,000.00

$200,000,000.00

Ban

glad

esh

Be

nin

Bu

rkin

a Fa

so

Cam

bo

dia

Cam

ero

on

Co

te D

’Ivo

ire

Do

min

ican

Rep

ub

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East

Afr

ica

(Ke

nya

, Tan

zan

ia, &

Mal

awi)

East

Tim

or

El S

alva

do

r

Eth

iop

ia

Gh

ana

Gu

ate

mal

a

Gu

ine

a B

issa

u

Hai

ti

Hai

ti/D

R

Ho

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ura

s

Jord

an

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nya

Kyr

gyzs

tan

Lao

Peo

ple

's D

emo

crat

ic R

ep

ub

lic

Lib

eria

Mad

agas

car

Mal

awi

Mal

i

Mau

rita

nia

Mo

zam

biq

ue

Nep

al

Nic

arag

ua

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Re

pu

blic

of

Co

ngo

Re

pu

blic

of

Sen

ega

l

Rw

and

a

Sie

rra

Leo

ne

Tan

zan

ia

Uga

nd

a

Yem

en

Active Funding by Country

McGovern-Dole

Food for Progress

Page 13: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

United States

Department of

Agriculture

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

United States Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

Africa

39%

Caribbean

16%

Central

America

16%

Asia

29%

Food for Progress Food Assistance

Commodities By Region, FY 2015

Africa

78%

Western

Hemisphere

22%

McGovern Dole Food Assistance

Commodities By Region, FY 2015

FY2015 Statistics

Fortified

Blended

Food

Grain

Other

Pulses

Rice

Veg Oil

Wheat

Products

McGovern-Dole Food Assistance

Commodity Mix, FY 2015

Grains

Other

Rice Veg Oil

Wheat

Products

Food for Progress Food Assistance

Commodity Mix, FY 2015

Page 14: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

United States

Department of

Agriculture

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

United States Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

Food for Progress and McGovern-Dole

Learning Agendas

Purpose

• Contribute to the global

knowledge base on

what works

• Improve evidence-

based decision making

• Improve program

design and impacts

• Prioritize USDA

research and evaluation

Development Process

• Intervention mapping

• Systematic reviews

• Researchers roundtable

• Researchers webinar

• Practitioners workshop

• Field visits

Page 15: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

United States

Department of

Agriculture

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

United States Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

McGovern Dole School Meals Learning Agenda

MGD Learning Agenda themes: 1) school meals program systems, 2) education

and literacy, 3) health, 4) nutrition, and 5) agriculture

Research questions include:

What are the most supportive policies affecting the success of school meal

programs, and what are the necessary conditions for these policies to be

implemented and to be effective?

What school meal modality (breakfast, lunch, snack, or a combination thereof) is

the most effective at improving immediate outcomes, such as attendance or

concentration, versus longer-term outcomes, such as cognitive development or

learning achievement?

What community-level systems of governance and management are required for

the successful implementation and sustainability of school meal programs?

What is the effect of school based micronutrient supplementation and/or

fortification on long-term educational outcomes such cognition and knowledge

acquisition?

Page 16: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

United States

Department of

Agriculture

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

United States Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

FFPr Learning Agenda themes: 1) value chains, 2) market linkages, 3) quality

and standards, 4) risk and uncertainty, and 5) gender (cross-cutting)

Research questions include:

To what extent can informal and/or formal contracts be effective at reducing

risk among farmers, suppliers and traders?

How can technology better support farmers and traders in meeting required

quality standards in a collaborative and multi-beneficial manner?

To what extent does increasing market linkages promote economic growth

among buyers, sellers, and processors at various levels, such as companies,

SMEs, smallholders, the ultra-poor, and middlemen traders? What levels and

types of market linkages effectively expand the market overall?

What are the best methods to improve the post-harvest stage of the value

chain, in order to maintain quality and value of crops after the harvest?

Food for Progress Expanding Trade and Markets

Learning Agenda

Page 17: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

United States

Department of

Agriculture

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

United States Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

Facility Guarantee Program

Designed to boost sales of U.S. agricultural commodities in countries where demand may be limited to inadequate storage, processing, handling, or distribution capabilities.

Under the FGP, USDA provides credit guarantees to facilitate the financing of manufactured goods and U.S. services to improve or establish agriculture-related facilities in emerging markets.

Repayment terms may range up to 10 years, depending on details of the transaction and the emerging market.

Approved transactions must primarily benefit U.S. agricultural commodity exports, and must be reviewed for

potential environmental and social impacts.

Program will be made operational during fiscal year 2016.

For more information, contact Amy Slusher at [email protected].

Page 18: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

United States

Department of

Agriculture

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

United States Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

Questions?

Page 19: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

United States

Department of

Agriculture

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

United States Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

Food for Progress (FFPr)

The Food for Progress Program helps developing countries and emerging

democracies modernize and strengthen their agricultural sectors.

Food for Progress has two principal objectives: to improve agricultural

productivity and to expand trade of agricultural products.

Past Food for Progress projects have trained farmers in animal and plant health,

improved farming methods, developed road and utility systems, established

producer cooperatives, provided microcredit, and developed agricultural value

chains. Program participants have included private voluntary organizations,

foreign governments, universities, and intergovernmental organizations

Page 20: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

United States

Department of

Agriculture

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

United States Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

McGovern-Dole School Feeding

The McGovern–Dole International Food for Education and Child Nutrition

Program helps support education, child development and food security in low-

income, food-deficit countries around the globe.

The key objective of the McGovern-Dole Program is to reduce hunger and

improve literacy and primary education, especially for girls. By providing school

meals, teacher training and related support, McGovern-Dole projects help boost

school enrollment and academic performance.

McGovern-Dole projects are conducted by non-profit charitable organizations,

cooperatives, the United Nations World Food Program and other international

organizations. FAS announces a list of priority countries each year, based on

factors such as per-capita income and literacy and malnutrition rates.

Page 21: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 21

AGENDA

Arrivals and Registration

Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical and Operational Performance Support Program (TOPS)

Breakout Session: USDA International Food Aid Conference Brainstorm

Welcome and Agenda Overview

• Foreign Agricultural Service Director’s Remarks

• Food for Peace Director’s Remarks

• Farm Service Agency Director’s Remarks

Commodity Trends

Update on Global Impacts of El Niño + La Niña

Update on Local and Regional Procurement (LRP) Programs

Closing Remarks and Questions

Page 22: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 22

Food for Peace Director

Remarks

FY 2015 + 2016 Budget Overview

GAO/Hill Update

FFP Strategy

Development Programming Update

OFDA/FFP Coordination

World Humanitarian Summit

Page 23: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 23

U.S. Government FY 2015 Food Assistance Graphs

Africa

88%

Western

Hemisphere

1%

Near East

4%

South and

Central Asia

7%

U.S. GOVERNMENT FOOD ASSISTANCE

BY REGION FY 2015

Wheat/

Wheat

Products

33%

Grains and

Fortified/

Blended Food

Products

45%

Pulses

12%

Vegetable Oil

6%

Other

4%

U.S. GOVERNMENT COMMODITY MIX

FY 2015

Page 24: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 24

USAID FY 2015 Food Assistance by Metric Tons

Africa

84%

Near East

10%

South and

Central Asia

6%

Western

Hemisphere

0%

EMERGENCY FOOD ASSISTANCE

Africa

76%

South and

Central Asia

21%

Western

Hemisphere

3%

DEVELOPMENT FOOD ASSISTANCE

Page 25: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 25

USAID FY 2015 Cost Breakdown

Commodity

Value

29%

Ocean Freight

9%

Inland Freight

7%

ITSH

35%

202(e)

20%

USAID FY 2015 COST BREAKDOWN

Page 26: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

• $1.7 billion in Title II for emergency and development funding

• $921 million in International Disaster Assistance/Overseas

Contingency Operations funding

• $80 million in Community Development Funds

• 26% increase in resources over FY15

• Both Agriculture and State/Foreign Operations bills have levels higher

than the FY16 Administration Budget Request in order to help meet

pressing needs of El Niño and conflict in Syria.

• To date in FY16, USAID/FFP has programmed approximately 1.1

million MT of commodities (compared to 1.05 million MT in FY15)

5/17/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 26

USAID FY2016 Budget Overview

Page 27: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 27

AGENDA

Arrivals and Registration

Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical and Operational Performance Support Program (TOPS)

Breakout Session: USDA International Food Aid Conference Brainstorm

Welcome and Agenda Overview

• Foreign Agricultural Service Director’s Remarks

• Food for Peace Director’s Remarks

• Farm Service Agency Director’s Remarks

Commodity Trends

Update on Global Impacts of El Niño + La Niña

Update on Local and Regional Procurement (LRP) Programs

Closing Remarks and Questions

Page 28: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

USDA/USAID Business Management

Improvement (BMI) Project

FACG Update

May 13, 2016

Page 29: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

29 Copyright © Capgemini 2016. All Rights Reserved

In collaboration with

The Business Management

Improvement (BMI) Project

is a business process re-engineering project to

assist USDA (FSA, FAS) and USAID in reviewing

and updating processes used in the ordering,

procurement, delivery, receiving, and payment of

commodities in support of domestic and international

food aid programs.

Project Overview

Page 30: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

30 Copyright © Capgemini 2016. All Rights Reserved

In collaboration with

1 Validate Vision

2 Current State

(As-Is)

3 Future State

(To-Be)

4 Business

Case

5 Implement-ation Plan

BMI Project Overall Progress

Oct 2015 -

Feb 2016

Feb 2016-

May 2016

May 2016-

Sept 2016

Sept 2016-

Dec 2016

Dec 2016-

Feb 2016

Currently Conducting As-Is Assessment and Planning

the To-Be Phase

Page 31: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

31 Copyright © Capgemini 2016. All Rights Reserved

In collaboration with

BMI Project Stakeholders

-FAS, FSA, USAID

-WFP

-Freight Forwarders/Brokers

-PVOs

-Commodity Vendors

-Freight Vendors

-WFP

-USAID Pre-Positioned Warehouses

Stakeholder group includes a variety of organizations

including U.S. government agencies, vendors, WFP and

PVOs, and other supply chain stakeholders

-Pre-Positioned

Warehouse

-Stevedores

-Ports

Page 32: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

32 Copyright © Capgemini 2016. All Rights Reserved

In collaboration with

Outcomes from the Validate Vision Phase

Validate Vision

Identified Objectives for the

Future State

B. Create an Optimal Supply Chain

C. Increase Supply Chain Velocity

A. Achieve Perfect Order

Fulfillment

D. Build a Strong Foundation for a

High Performance Supply Chain

Validated objectives for future state, and

prioritized top processes 1

Held Workshop to Identify

Prioritized Processes

Page 33: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

33 Copyright © Capgemini 2016. All Rights Reserved

In collaboration with

Conducting a Current State Assessment

Conducting Workshops, Developing Process Maps and Narratives,

Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Assessing current state, identifying As-Is

processes, challenges, and opportunities

across the in-kind food aid supply chain

Current State

(As-Is) 2

Page 34: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

34 Copyright © Capgemini 2016. All Rights Reserved

In collaboration with

Planning for the To-Be Phase

• Kickoff Call • Early June

• Series of Workshops • Weekly, June-August

• To-Be ASE DesignSession • August 23-25

• Documentation & Finalization • September

To-Be Activities

Developing redesigned processes through a

collaborative workshop series and culminating

in a three-day workshop to gain concurrence

on recommendations

Conduct As-Is

Future State

(To-Be) 3

Page 35: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 35

AGENDA

Arrivals and Registration

Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical and Operational Performance Support Program (TOPS)

Breakout Session: USDA International Food Aid Conference Brainstorm

Welcome and Agenda Overview

• Foreign Agricultural Service Director’s Remarks

• Food for Peace Director’s Remarks

• Farm Service Agency Director’s Remarks

Commodity Trends

Update on Global Impacts of El Niño + La Niña

Update on Local and Regional Procurement (LRP) Programs

Closing Remarks and Questions

Page 36: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

FSA-EPAS 36

COMMODITY MARKET OUTLOOK Food Aid Consultative Group

Spring 2016

Pete Riley

Director, Food Grains Analysis Group

Economic and Policy Analysis Staff

USDA/Farm Service Agency

Washington, DC 20250

202-720-7787

[email protected]

May 13, 2016

Page 37: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

FSA-EPAS

The Starting Point: A Low Price Environment FAO Indices through April 2016

37

Page 38: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

FSA-EPAS

Large Global Food Supplies in 2016

Overall Outlook Remains Favorable for End Users

• World supplies of major grains are huge and carryover stocks for

2016 very large.

• The oilseed outlook is tighter as demand gains outpace supply

increase.

• El Nino: impact was relatively minor globally, but severe in several

locations and for certain crops.

• Grain prices declining in 2016 but increases likely for soybeans,

pulses, and sugar.

• Huge production response might lead to lower pulse prices after

harvest.

• Global dairy market remains depressed (weak prices) in 2016 but

expected to improve gradually into 2017.

38

Data presented today based on USDA’s May 2016 forecasts,

the first for the 2016/17 year.

Page 39: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

FSA-EPAS

Sharp Downturn for U.S. Agriculture

• Another year of low income on

low crop prices and sticky

input costs.

• Livestock sector faring better

as lower crop prices mean

cheaper feed.

• Very competitive international

markets limit U.S. export gains.

• The domestic markets are

relatively mature, i.e. slow

growth.

• Big gains in biofuel have

stopped. $0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Net farm income for 2016

forecast down 55 percent from

2013 record Billion

39

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FSA-EPAS

The Global Economy is Weak Pick another word? Moribund, tepid, staid, dour, etc.

• The global economy is moving

slowly, with more ‘flashpoints’

than any time in recent

memory. *

• China’s slowdown and weak

commodity prices taking their

toll on emerging markets.

• Low incomes and large

supplies suggest low ag prices

continue and do not bode well

for most farmers.

• However, the dollar has been a

bit weaker in recent weeks and

oil prices have been rising.

40

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

But Oil Prices Are Starting to Increase

Crude $ per barrel, WTI weekly

*Source: Chief Financial Officer, Proctor and Gamble

Page 41: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

FSA-EPAS

Implications of Poor Macroeconomic Outlook

• Weak demand for food and agricultural commodities will limit

upward pressure on prices.

• Weak income will limit many countries’ ability to purchase food

commercially.

• In regions hard hit by El Nino, lack of money will constrain efforts to

recover from serious food shortfalls.

• Poor economic outlook means very low interest rates.

• The commodity price crash in recent years burned many investors.

• However, some funds desperate for higher returns are starting to

move back into commodities, raising volatility.

41

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FSA-EPAS

Soybean and Soy Meal Markets on Fire Recently

Cash prices for soybeans

up 20 percent since March 1

$7.00

$7.50

$8.00

$8.50

$9.00

$9.50

$10.00

$10.50

2015/16 Per bushel

What’s going on?

• Fund investments underlie the

dramatic rally.

• It started on higher palm oil

prices, and appreciation of

Brazil’s currency.

• Accelerated as flooding hit

Argentina’s soy crop at harvest.

• Even with some losses, South

American crop is still large, but

strong demand partly accounts for

the market response.

42

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FSA-EPAS

South American Soybean Production Weather problems reduce 2015 crops now being harvested

Crop forecast lowered 4 percent this month

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F

Argentina Mil MT

Crop forecast lowered 1 percent this month

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F

Brazil Mil MT

43

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FSA-EPAS

Global Production and Consumption up 2

Percent for Both Grains and Oilseeds in 2016

2.1

2.15

2.2

2.25

2.3

2.35

2.4

2.45

2.5

2.55

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F

Total Grains

Prod Consumption

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F

Total Oilseeds

Prod Cons

Mil. MT

44

Bil. MT

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FSA-EPAS

Global Ending Stocks: Record Large

for Grains, Shrinking for Oilseeds

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Total Grains

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Total Oilseeds Mil MT

45

Mil. MT

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FSA-EPAS

U.S. Farmers Will Cut Acreage

Only Modestly in 2016*

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F

Planted area major crops • Corn plantings up nearly 6

million acres, as producers try

to offset low prices with high

volume.

• Rice and cotton area up,

declines for other grains and

soybeans indicated by

producers.

• Big gains for pulses in response

to soaring prices: lentils up 72

percent from 2015, dry edible

peas 25 percent, with large

increases in Canada as well.

46

Million acres

* Based on Prospective Plantings survey, March 2016

Page 47: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

FSA-EPAS

Production Will Outpace Use for Corn,

Wheat, and Rice, But Not Soybeans

• Record corn crop in store will

lead to build in ending stocks to

over 2 billion bushels, the

highest since 1987.

• Wheat crop to shrink, but

stocks also projected at highest

since 1987.

• Rice stocks pegged at 30-year

high on biggest crop in 6 years.

• Soybean stocks to fall with

crop down 3 percent, use up 5

percent.

47

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Ending stocks

Corn

Soybeans

Page 48: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

FSA-EPAS

U.S. Prices (metric ton equivalent)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 F

Wheat $286 $252 $220 $180 $151

Rice, LG $320 $340 $262 $243 $220

Soybeans $529 $478 $371 $325 $334

Soy Meal $516 $540 $406 $342 $353

Soy Oil $1,038 $842 $697 $661 $705

Corn $271 $176 $146 $142 $132

Sorghum $249 $168 $159 $128 $124

48

Prices received by farmers and wholesale

soymeal and oil prices

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FSA-EPAS

U.S. Prices (metric ton equivalent)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 F

Dry Peas $346 $322 $265 $276 $276

Lentils $456 $437 $538 $672 $694

Large

Chickpeas $835 $681 $631 $683 $705

Small

Chickpeas $604 $500 $458 $529 $551

Peanuts $664 $549 $485 $423 $403

49

Prices received by farmers

Page 50: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

FSA-EPAS

Perspective on the Current

Agricultural Downturn

• Farmers had expected lower prices but they had not

thought that “prices would drop as low as they did.”

• They borrowed more money “to keep themselves

going…”

• “in the face of a continuing decline in prices of almost all

of their crops, they put out ample acreage in the spring…”

• “Fortunately, there is a brighter side to the picture…

prices for livestock are much higher” than for grain.

50

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FSA-EPAS

Perspective on the Current

Agricultural Downturn

• Farmers had expected lower prices but they had not

thought that “prices would drop as low as they did.”

• They borrowed more money “to keep themselves

going…”

• “in the face of a continuing decline in prices of almost all

of their crops, they put out ample acreage in the spring…”

• “Fortunately, there is a brighter side to the picture…

prices for livestock are much higher” than for grain.

Source: Henry C. Wallace, The Secretary’s Report to the

President, Yearbook of Agriculture 1921

51

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FSA-EPAS

Historical View of Ag Cycles Illustrated by the Price of Corn (per bushel)

1908-1971 1971-2016F

52

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

19

08

19

11

19

14

19

17

19

20

19

23

19

26

19

29

19

32

19

35

19

38

19

41

19

44

19

47

19

50

19

53

19

56

19

59

19

62

19

65

19

68

19

71

World War I

Post World War II

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

19

71

19

73

19

75

19

77

19

79

19

81

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

USSR begins huge grain imports

Commodity boom, Growth in ethanol

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5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 53

AGENDA

Arrivals and Registration

Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical and Operational Performance Support Program (TOPS)

Breakout Session: USDA International Food Aid Conference Brainstorm

Welcome and Agenda Overview

• Foreign Agricultural Service Director’s Remarks

• Food for Peace Director’s Remarks

• Farm Service Agency Director’s Remarks

Commodity Trends

Update on Global Impacts of El Niño + La Niña

Update on Local and Regional Procurement (LRP) Programs

Closing Remarks and Questions

Page 54: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

Famine Early Warning Systems Network

May 13, 2016

FOOD SECURITY IMPLICATIONS

OF THE 2015/16 EL NIÑO

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__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

55

Key Messages

The 2015/16 El Niño is dissipating, but has already contributed to

widespread drought across many areas in Central America, the Caribbean,

East Africa, and Southern Africa.

In countries covered by FEWS NET ~44 million people will be in Crisis (IPC

Phase 3) or worse during FY16. This reflects a 50% increase compared to

FEWS NET’s estimates for FY15. This event comes on top of other ongoing

large-scale emergencies (Yemen, South Sudan, NE Nigeria and Syria).

It is most likely there will be a rapid transition to La Niña in the second half

of 2016, increasing the likelihood of drought in the Horn of Africa during

late 2016.

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__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

56

El Niño/La Niña

Anomalous oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Pacific that

influence climate around the world

Source: NOAA

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__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

57

El Niño impacts June – September 2015

Source: FEWS NET

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__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

58

Forecast El Niño impacts October 2015 – March 2016

Source: FEWS NET

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__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

59

FOOD SECURITY IMPLICATIONS

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__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

60

Estimated FY16 emergency food assistance needs

FY16: ~44 million people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or

worse in FEWS NET countries

Assistance needs are +50% vs. FY15

Half of FEWS NET countries and ~40% of food

insecure households are directly impacted by El Niño

■ ■

■ Large-scale food security crises not related to El Nino

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__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

61

Primera and Postrera rainfall far below normal

2015 Postrera percent of normal cumulative rainfall,

July 1 – October 10

2015 Primera dryness ranking compared to

1981-2015 record

Source: FEWS NET/USGS Source: FEWS NET/USGS

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__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

62

Ethiopia Mar-Sep 2015 rainfall (CHIRPS) as a percent of normal

Source: FEWS NET/USGS

Projected food security outcomes, June to September 2016

Source: FEWS NET

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__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

63

East Africa Other areas of concern

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) percent of normal,

September 5-16, 2015

Source: FEWS NET/USGS

Oct-Dec 2015 rainfall (ARC2) as a percent of normal

Source: FEWS NET/NOAA

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__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

64

Southern Africa

October 2015 – February 2016 rainfall anomaly (CHIRPS)

percent of the 1982-2011 average

Source: FEWS NET/USGS

Ranking of Oct 2015 – Mar 2016 rainfall

vs. the previous 34 years

Source: FEWS NET/USGS

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__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

65

Peak needs in Southern Africa expected late 2016/early 2017

Projected food security outcomes, June to September 2016

Source: FEWS NET/USGS

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__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

66

ENSO Forecast

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__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

67

Forecast La Niña impacts October 2016 – May 2017

Source: FEWS NET

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__________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK

68

For more information

To subscribe to FEWS NET’s reports, please visit www.fews.net

Peter Thomas

Decision Support Advisor

[email protected]

202-955-7537

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5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 69

AGENDA

Arrivals and Registration

Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical and Operational Performance Support Program (TOPS)

Breakout Session: USDA International Food Aid Conference Brainstorm

Welcome and Agenda Overview

• Foreign Agricultural Service Director’s Remarks

• Food for Peace Director’s Remarks

• Farm Service Agency Director’s Remarks

Commodity Trends

Update on Global Impacts of El Niño + La Niña

Update on Local and Regional Procurement (LRP) Programs

Closing Remarks and Questions

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5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 70

Local and Regional Procurement Programs (LRP)

LRP Fiscal Year 2015 Overview

LRP Fiscal Year 2015 Analysis & Findings

LRP Policy

Modality Decision Tool (MDT)

Page 71: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

5/17/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 71

LRP Fiscal Year 2015 Overview

FY 15: $2.16 billion

Other

76% LRP

24%

Disaggregated by

Modality

72%

6%

9%

12%

1%

LRP Disaggregated by Region

Asia/Near

East

East

Africa/Horn

Central/

Southern

Africa

West Africa

}

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5/17/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 72

LRP Fiscal Year 2015 Analysis & Findings

• Tools: Utilized 3 different methodologies

examining cost-efficiency.

–Direct Transfer Percentage

–Comparable Basket

–Cost Per Metric Ton

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5/17/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 73

LRP Fiscal Year 2015 Analysis & Findings

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5/17/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 74

FFPIB 16-01: Award Requirements for Source and

Origin of Local, Regional, and International

Procurement (LRP)

• FFP defines regional procurement as commodities

procured within the same continent as the

country in which they will be distributed.

• FFP requires reporting on both source and origin;

commodities of international origin will require

FFP Director approval.

• Commodities must be procured from countries

up to Lower Middle Income on the OECD DAC

List.

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5/17/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 75

Modality Decision Tool

• FFP has created a “Modality Decision Tool” to

guide decision-making:

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5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 76

AGENDA

Arrivals and Registration

Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical and Operational Performance Support Program (TOPS)

Breakout Session: USDA International Food Aid Conference Brainstorm

Welcome and Agenda Overview

• Foreign Agricultural Service Director’s Remarks

• Food for Peace Director’s Remarks

• Farm Service Agency Director’s Remarks

Commodity Trends

Update on Global Impacts of El Niño + La Niña

Update on Local and Regional Procurement (LRP) Programs

Closing Remarks and Questions

Page 77: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

USDA Local and Regional Procurement Program

Presented by: Ingrid Ardjosoediro

Chief, Food for Education| Food Aid Division | Office of Capacity Building and Development |

Foreign Agricultural Service

Page 78: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

USDA Pilot LRP Program Summary

Program Type

Development($19.8 million)

Emergency($32.0 million)

Page 79: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

Update on the USDA LRP Program

• USDA is finalizing regulations and expects to publish the proposed rule in the Federal Register for public comments soon.

• Request for Proposals and deadlines will be posted on the FAS Website.

• Funding for FY 2016 is $5 M.

Page 80: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

How will the USDA LRP Program prioritize funding?

• Development programs, although if a need arises emergency programs may be approved.

• McGovern-Dole International Food for Education and Child Nutrition Projects as established under section 3107 of the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 (7 U.S.C. 1736o–1).

• A majority of the projects will be funded in Africa and procure eligible commodities that are produced in Africa as provided by statute.

Page 81: Food Aid Consultative Group - FSN Network Spring 2016 PPT.pdf · 5/13/2016 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016 2 Breakout Session: USAID’s Follow-on Mechanism for the Technical

Thank you

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CLOSING REMARKS AND QUESTIONS

5/13/2016 82 Food Aid Consultative Group Spring 2016