FOCUS URBAN DEVELOPMENT FASCINATION AND FEAR · FASCINATION AND FEAR Anyone who thinks about the cities of the future probably envisages dirty, noisy concrete jungles surrounded by

DRÄGER REVIEW 121 | 1/ 20206

FOCUS URBAN DEVELOPMENT

FASCINATION AND FEAR

Anyone who thinks about the cities of the future probably envisages dirty, noisy concrete jungles surrounded by

towering skyscrapers. They may be surprised.

TEXT TOBIAS HÜRTER

INCREDIBLE EXPANSES The metropolitan region of Tokyo is the biggest in the world. More than 37.4 million people live here – and the figure continues to rise. Yet how can such megacities be kept running?

7DRÄGER REVIEW 121 | 1/ 2020

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A nyone who has ever been to a typical North Ameri-can city will immediately recognize the principle: There is the business and financial district, with its skyscrapers and shop-ping malls. You could say that the rest is made up of suburbs where houses stand in rows – on equally sized plots, in equal-ly sized blocks. If this city continued to grow in the same man-ner, it would spill over into the surrounding region as a monot-onous urban mess. There would soon come a point in time when the dream of owning a home could turn into a nightmare – into an urban wasteland that looks similar from every angle, without real city living. Many cities are no longer that far away from this point in time. Things will no longer continue along the lines of “more of the same.” So how then? For many peo-

ple, the answer to this question is existential. For the first time, more than half of the global population now lives in cities. It is conceivable that this development will soon reach its natu-ral limit and the growth of cities will simply cease on its own. However, this is rather unlikely. The forces that drive the devel-opment are too powerful – especially the economic and cultur-al forces that are unleashed when people live together in tight spaces. It is precisely these forces that allowed the first cities to flourish: Uruk (in southern Mesopotamia), Jericho (in the Jor-dan Valley), Athens, and Rome; metropolises of trade, art, and education (see interview, page 16 f.). According to a UN study, as many as two-thirds of the global population will be living in cities by 2050; not just in more cities, but also bigger ones. Pro-ductivity per capita is higher here, as are the wages.

City dwellers travel shorter distances to work and to do their shopping. And they have better opportunities to share transport

8 DRÄGER REVIEW 121 | 1/ 2020

A CREATIVE APPROACH TO THE FUTURE Star architect Zaha Hadid (1950–2016) got together with

Patrik Schumacher to design the Wangjing SOHO complex, which was inaugurated in 2014 as the “welcome and

farewell” between Beijing city center and Capital Airport. In Asia, the design is reminiscent of the koi carp, which

represents prosperity, happiness, and health in China. The 3D computer design of the office complex with its

double-curvature surfaces has been copied many times as a model of a kind of architecture that offers organic form

and perfect function for the cities of the future


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DOES EVERYONE REALLY NEED TO HAVE THEIR OWN LAUNDRY

OR FITNESS ROOM?

and equipment (such as cars and washing machines). Accord-ingly, the carbon footprint of those living in Berlin and New York is much lower than the national average for their respec-tive countries. So there is plenty to suggest that the future of mankind will be an urban existence. But what form will it take? There are various scenarios, designs, and forecasts – from the flying taxi to the post-capitalist commune with a barter econ-omy. In many respects, such scenarios are plausible. Certain aspects may be correct, but by no means all. There are good rea-sons to believe that some forecasts will become reality. Here are theses for five of them.

I. POPULATION CONCENTRATION WILL CONTINUEWith even more people living in an ever tighter space, they will have to move closer together in the cities. Transport problems cannot be solved without the concentration of populations; too many people and goods would have to travel too far. Yet anyone who has ever packed too much into a small suitcase knows that the success of such concentration can go either way. Those who simply throw everything in as if they had as much space as they liked must exert massive pressure at some point and will end up with creased clothes. On the other hand, those who think carefully and neatly fold their clothes can generally close the lid with little effort. It is the same with urban concentration. If we continue to proceed as we have done until now, it will come as no surprise to us when the pressure on the transport networks and housing markets grows ever bigger – and the quality of life in the cities starts to get heavily creased. The extent to which big cities will be nice places to live in the future will depend on carefully conceived concepts. More people can live better with-in a tight space in a cleverly planned apartment block than in a sprawling colony of houses.

An important factor in the successful concentration of pop-ulations is the organization of shared spaces. Does everyone really have to have their own laundry or fitness room? It is per-haps more convenient, but then there is less space for every-body else, whereas everyone can benefit from using shared

spaces. The subject of shared spaces is also much discussed in the area of transport: squares, roads, and crossroads that pedes-trians, cyclists, and car drivers are equally entitled to use with-out regulating the flow of traffic with markings, signs, or traffic lights. You might expect such concepts to descend into chaos, but trials have gone remarkably well. However, such scenari-os require consideration and a willingness to reach an agree-ment among the road users – skills that ought to be better cul-tivated in big cities anyway.

Yet not only will spaces be more frequently shared in the future, but also vehicles and other technical equipment. Car and bike sharing are already on the increase. The next evolutionary step involves private car owners making their cars available to others in addition to the large companies. The Berlin-based com-pany Getaway already offers this service via a smartphone app. This is leading to private vehicles being used more efficiently, which can reduce the number of cars that need to be parked. And why stop at cars? Drills and other equipment can also be shared using the same principle.

II. MONITORING IS ON THE INCREASEA well-functioning city is like a finely tuned machine. You have to know its condition in order to be able to control it. It is there-fore conceivable that the cities of the future will have millions of sensors that not only monitor traffic flow and air quality, but also the consumption of water and electricity and the spread of pathogens. Garbage cans will send a notification when they need to be emptied. Traffic lights will adapt their phases to the traffic on the road. Streetlights will only emit as much light as needed at any given time. This is not just about efficiency, but also safety. An urban infrastructure is especially vulnera-ble to natural disasters, attacks, or technical faults. A burnt-out transformer can quickly cause chaos in a city. Sensors help to prevent or mitigate such incidents. Technical systems will play an important role. They will permit the exchange of data between vehicles and the surrounding infrastructure, while also increasing the flow of traffic and improving safety. It is




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very possible that city center traffic may only flow in the future with the help of such systems. One journalist described this sector as “red hot” in the Wall Street Journal a few months ago. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, has just founded a subsidiary called Sidewalk Infrastructure Partners in order to invest in urban infrastructure projects. However, all of this sensor technology and monitoring raises questions about pri-vacy. Citizens should be able to live free from surveillance in their own homes and walk outside their front door without somebody being able to track their movements against their will. The basic means of creating the transparent citizen by linking personal data from a wide range of sources requires effective data protection. This is sure to become a key issue of urban development.

III. BIG CITIES ARE BECOMING MORE PROVINCIALThe traditional structure of cities – a vibrant city center sur-rounded by quiet suburbs – no longer works in big cities. The distances people have to travel to work, shop, and socialize are becoming too great. Accordingly, smaller, closer centers, quar-ters, and neighborhoods will become more important. Mega- cities are evolving into metropolitan regions, which can already be found in many places. One fear is that cities will lose their face without a clear center. On the other hand, they will provide an ambience where small stores, bars, and neigh-borhoods can flourish. As such, they could mitigate the ano-nymity of the big cities and improve relations between people. Particularly in an ageing society, this form of decentralization is important, because older people are generally less mobile than the younger generation.

IV. CITIES ARE GETTING GREENERHong Kong is a good example of how indispensable green spaces are in cities. It is one of the most densely populated cities in the world. Wherever you happen to be, there is always a pub-lic park within walking distance. Green spaces are incredibly important for the well-being, stress relief, and health of the

city dwellers (see page 12 f.). Furthermore, plants improve the climate; they cool and humidify the air. The growing of useful crops in cities can secure the supply of fresh fruit and vegeta-bles for the residents without the need to transport such goods over long distances. There is a wide range of urban farming concepts where plants are integrated into façades or grown on roofs. The American biologist Dickson Despommier has designed 30-story buildings with the floor space of entire city blocks, in which edible food grows in fields stacked on top of one another.

V. TRAFFIC WILL TRAVEL IN THE AIR AND UNDERGROUNDIt feels as if we spend longer stuck in traffic with every year that passes. Figures confirm this: In German cities it is more than 100 hours each year on average. This misery cannot be solved alone by traffic restrictions, new roads, and the expansion of various forms of transport. People and goods will still need to get from A to B, especially in growing cities. The chaos cannot be tamed while traffic continues to trav-el almost exclusively along the ground. It will also have to shift vertically – either in the air or underground. Whether this takes the form of goods tunnels, like the one planned by the Swiss company Cargo Sous Terrain, or drones for parcel delivery, or even mini electric helicopters with silent rotors, like those being trialed by the German company Volocopter, it will take experience, testing, and errors to work out which technical systems are in the best position to relieve the bur-den of traffic on the ground. One thing is certain, however: There is no getting around the fact that the traffic bur-den must be eased.

For all the fascination and fear that the vision of future cit-ies generates within us, we should not forget one thing in par-ticular: Cities are man-made. How they look depends on wheth-er we are prepared to design them – and, of course, how we design them. After all, we are not there for the cities. Rather, they are there for us.

SMALLER AND CLOSER CENTERS COULD IMPROVE RELATIONS

BETWEEN PEOPLE


FUTURE NETWORKBigger, denser, smarter – above all, however, more connected. That is how the future

of our cities looks. How they work depends on our approach to energy, new forms of mobility, and intensive communication. All these aspects aff ect the structures of a city.

ENERGY

MOBILITY

URBAN STRUCTURE

RESOURCES Short journeys and smaller homes reduce the carbon footprint of city dwellers compared to those in rural areas.

MULTICENTRAL CITIESConurbations are getting ever bigger, but they produce new centers – like small cities within the big city.

URBANIZATIONMore than two-thirds of the global population will live in cities by 2050: around 6.7 billion people.

WATER MANAGEMENTSewer systems are being designed to cope with heavy rain events. The drinking water supply also needs new strategies.

URBAN GREEN SPACESUrban skyscraper farms and planted façades are emerging alongside parks and public green spaces.

SHARINGVehicle ownership in cities is declining. Instead, individual mobility is being shared with cars, bikes, and scooters.

UNDERGROUNDThe fi rst modern subway started running in 1863. Underground transport systems are now being heavily expanded.

AIRSPACEForms of transport such as electric fl ying taxis and delivery drones will use the urban airspace in the future.

AUTOMATIONAutonomous railroads are increasing passenger capacity; autonomous cars do not need parking spaces in the center.

SMART GRID / SMART HOMEIntelligently managed supply networks and household appliances permit the effi cient use of energy.

CAR2X COMMUNICATIONData exchange between vehicles and their surroundings makes complex traffi c manageable.

SENSOR TECHNOLOGYThe city monitors its status via digital sensors. This may include facial recognition.

CITIZEN INFORMATIONIn the event of incidents or major fi res, people are sent geographically precise alarms via apps.

COMMUNICATION

NEW LARGE-SCALE CONSUMERSThere was once heavy industry in city centers. Now data centers are large-scale energy consumers in urban areas.

FLEXIBLE ENERGYLocal power generation from re newable energy sources requires new, decentralized storage systems.


GROWING TALL There is room for plants and

shrubs to grow vertically. Since buildings are increasingly shooting

skyward, greenery is being planted on the walls and balconies.

It is not only pleasing to the eye, but also helps to improve the air quality

Maybe the heroes of the future will be Scots pine, magnolia, elm, and wine. These trees and shrubs very efficiently filter pollutants from the air. Cities need green lungs in the form of trees, shrubs, parks, and other green spaces to deplete pollutants, but also to give oxygen and shade. An air temperature of 30 degrees Celsius can be better tolerated beneath a mighty chestnut tree than in the blazing sun. Urban living spaces may be much sought-after, but they generally suffer more from the effects of climate change than rural regions.

What are the reasons for this? Due to the fact that buildings are so close together and large areas of soil are sealed by con-crete, cities heat up more quickly and only slowly release this heat again. This results in urban heat islands and tropical nights when the temperature doesn’t drop below 20 degrees, even in Ger-many. Since July 2019, the town of Lingen in the district of Ems-land has held the record for the highest national temperature of 42.6 degrees. On a clinical thermometer that figure wouldn’t be far away from death. Cities are also more poorly equipped to deal with extreme climate phenomena such as heavy rain, because the rain doesn’t drain away as quickly due to the sealed surfaces. Instead, it accumulates in roads, tunnels, and basements as well as on ground floors. High buildings are also a climate risk. They can cause dangerous turbulence in stormy weather and block fresh air lanes. Cities also have higher air pollution due to the high amount of traffic and their proximity to nearby industrial facilities. Particularly critical to health are nitrogen dioxide, par-ticulate matter, and ozone, whose concentration is frequently over or only just under the tolerable limits and targets in many places. Noise is also a problem; it is rarely calm in the city.

Trees and other greenery help here. They cool down cities, filter pollutants from the air, and attenuate the noise. They also promote mental well-being. A study conducted by Dr. Kristine Engemann Jensen from Aarhus University in Denmark revealed in summer 2019 that children who have little contact with nature while grow-ing up have a 55 percent higher risk of developing psychiatric ill-nesses than those who grow up surrounded by nature. Engemann and her colleagues have also correlated the illness figures and the vegetation index in Denmark. It is with good reason that a grow-ing number of offices are being transformed into little ecosystems so that employees can benefit from the cheering effect of plants. One other thing is important: The green lungs of the city are also places where children can experience so much – watching animals, becoming acquainted with flowers, and finding out how it feels to play in green spaces. Where is our appreciation of nature supposed to come from if not from our own experience?

It is clear that the future of cities will depend very much on how strong their green lungs are. People and plants live in a multilayered community of fate. The carbon dioxide exhaled by humans is converted into oxygen and glucose by plants. A 100-year-old oak tree produces as much oxygen in a year as 11 people need to breathe in the same year. People can go with-out food for a few weeks, without water for three days, but with-out oxygen for just a couple of minutes. Maybe it is time to build more parks instead of parking spaces, plant more greenery on buildings and roofs, clear away the gravel from front gardens, and plant flowers for the animals and for us humans.

AIR ANALYSIS EVERY MINUTEThose who wish to improve something need to know the weak points. In the city of Lübeck, a study has been running over the past few months to measure five gases in the atmosphere (including nitrogen dioxide and carbon monoxide) at stationary measuring points and also mobile across the entire city. This is done on the daily rounds of a bulk garbage truck and a residual garbage truck. The measuring technology was installed by Dräger as part of the “EnergieCluster Digitales Lübeck” initiative. Both vehicles transmit the measured values by radio in real time to the municipal data center, where they are evaluated. “We are thus examining an extensive data network on air quality so that we can draw up an air pollution map for the city,” says Oliver Harnack, who is the technology and innovation manager in the Dräger Safety engineering division and also responsible for this project. “Since particulate matter is another air pollut- ant, we have also installed the necessary measuring equipment for this.” The first evaluation has already been produced. “We can see the familiar critical points – and how the air pollution increases near construction sites and in certain weather conditions. This is important data for urban and traffic planning,” says Harnack. “The process of improving air quality should be a more precise task with this data.”


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FEVERISH CITIES

Concrete jungles, sweltering heat, air pollution. Green spaces will also determine

whether cities will remain resilient and attractive places to live in the future –

it won’t be possible without plants.

TEXT DR. HILDEGARD KAULEN




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When the British physicist and complexity research-er Prof. Geoffrey West looks at a city, he doesn’t see its busy streets, stations, or pedestrian zones. Rather, he sees a living organism, which relentlessly devours resources in order to convert them into energy and creativity. It is a metabolism driv-en by containers, courier deliveries, telephone calls, e-mails, and many other things. Fundamental questions plague the scientist: Do all cities obey the same rules? And: Can their growth be expressed in a universally valid formula? Professor West has presented the answers to these questions in his book Scale: The Universal Laws of Life and Death in Organisms, Cities, and Companies. It propounds the core thesis that all organisms obey the same laws of scale, including cities. West also asserts that the universe constantly revolves around its energy balance: “Whether bacteria or companies, there is no life without the constant supply and conversion of energy.” In other words, just like trees or animals, cities follow a foresee-able and predictable growth path – and astonishingly become ever more efficient the bigger they get. Using his formula, West can even determine how much better a large settlement can manage its resources compared to a small settlement. When a city doubles in size, it does not need twice as much infrastruc-ture, such as filling stations or supply lines. Instead, a city of ten million people can get by on 85 percent of the urban hard-ware that two cities of five million people need. This is also due to the fact that a city is made up of many nodal points and

can take a decentralized approach to supplying its various dis-tricts. Let’s take energy as an example: Instead of depending on an ever longer pipeline from a remote power station, combined heat and power plants or solar installations with incorporated energy storage systems and intelligent management software ensure that entire streets are largely self-sufficient, without burdening the rest of the city. They can even feed surplus ener-gy into the grid. The savings in spite of the growth afford the urban planners a degree of freedom so that cities can accom-modate more residents in the future. Apart from the infra-structure, big cities have another advantage: As a living net-work of networks, the bigger they get, the more productive they become, because unlike transport or the supply of foodstuffs, there are virtually no limits on the exchange of material things (whether bright ideas or digital bits). “Social networks multiply one another. The more people I am in contact with, the more ideas can emerge as a result. This is the key to the success of urbanization and can be seen in income, the concentration of creative minds, and more,” says West. There is also a down-side, however, because the negative impact of millions of peo-ple living together in a tight space can also multiply – such as criminality and the spread of diseases. THE FORMER HYPE CONTINUES Historians and archaeologists can document the secret of the city’s success as a super-network in excavations. Professor Monica L. Smith from the University of California in Los Angeles has studied urban development, and sees clear parallels with today’s megacities: “Cities were the first Internet for our ances-tors – a place to communicate with other people and stay in contact.” If we celebrate cashless payments as an innovation nowadays, says Smith, we are drawing on ancient ideas from Mesopotamia and Central America. “Successful cities got by without cash for millennia and were still very successful.” And something else connects ancient Rome with medieval cities and megaregions like the Pearl River Delta in South China: the dimension of our very personal urban network. People general-ly do not want to live more than half an hour away from their place of work. In 1994, the Italian physicist Prof. Cesare Marchet-ti described this insight, which came to be known as the Mar-chetti Constant. By foot, this equates to a distance of 2.5 kilome-ters. Even though we have switched from sandals to horses, and later to trains and buses, and possibly even autonomous vehi-cles, the average journey time for commuters has remained the same across the millennia at around 30 minutes. The Marchetti Constant can be seen in the way both ancient and modern cities have expanded. Every new, faster mode of transport allows cit-ies to expand further into the surrounding region. As soon as a new suburb emerges, workers settle here in a 30-minute radius, thereby extending the urban network. Superfast 5G cellular net-works and possible passenger drones will do nothing to change this natural law of city life.

EVERYTHING FLOWS

Whether in ancient or modern times, cities are living networks

that obey universal laws.

TEXT STEFFAN HEUER

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COUNTRY CITY

70.4 % 29.6 %

53.3 % 46.7 %

31.6 % 68.4 %

100 YEARS: FROM THE COUNTRY TO THE CITY

CITIFICATIONUrbanization is a global megatrend of the 20th and 21st centuries. The extent of the growth varies across the regions of the world.

BRAZIL+51.11 %

GERMANY+9.4 %

JAPAN+2.73 %

AUSTRALIA+87.96 %

Global centers of changeA growing number of people are living in cities, far more than 50 percent since 2008.

As such, cities are becoming the focal points of demographic change.

NIGERIA+573.59%

CONGO+661.65 %

RUSSIA+3 %

CHINA+137.19 %

INDIA+200.88 %

CIRCLE SIZE IS EQUAL TO 25,000,000 URBAN DWELLERS

USA+55.81 %

2000 2050

URBAN EXPANSION IN KM2

POPULATION DENSITY (1,000 PEOPLE PER KM2)

AVERAGE POPULATION GROWTH PER YEAR (2000–2018):

DATA AS A FINGERPRINT OF A CITY: GEOGRAPHY, POPULATION, AND DENSITYEvery city is diff erent. This is clearly shown by these key fi gures for fi ve big cities from the countries featured above.

INHABITANTS FOR 2000 | 2018 | 2030 (FORECAST)

0.3%

2.75

0.3%

3.75

3.4%

18.15

0.9%

6.85

1.2%

29.65

ANCIENT MEGACITYRome has experienced thousands of years of history. Archaeological discoveries and scripts provide an insight into the city’s past. At the time of Emperor Augustus, for example, a building boom got so out of hand that the authorities had to intervene – decreeing that everything had to be built in line with strict regulations and have a limited number of fl oors


6,000 YEARS OF INNOVATION

Archaeologist Monica L. Smith examines the question of what has drawn people to cities since the dawn of time.

INTERVIEW STEFFAN HEUER

The connection with other people is a key experience of city life. How exactly did networking look thousands of years ago? Almost the same as it does today. Cities were more or less the first Internet for our ancestors – a way of communicating with many people, exploring new forms of work and leisure, and staying in contact with others. Cities were places where people could experiment with their identity and reinvent themselves. There was also business networking. When we talk about a cashless society today, it is by no means new. On the contrary, we are simply seeing a return to city life before the invention of coins. Once upon a time, there were plenty of cities that were unfamiliar with cash and nonetheless worked well thanks to barter trade and had healthy economic systems with detailed accounting.

By 2050, almost three-quarters of the global population will live in cities. Do archaeological discoveries provide us with any indication that we will have soon reached a limit in terms of urbanization?The only really limiting factor is agricultural productivity. Our agriculture is increasingly being mechanized, leading to a very small number of people producing ever greater quantities of food. There will always be people who do not want to live in the city. As such, urbanization will probably level off at around 85 or 90 percent. And yet this model is capable of surviving, because things such as water supply, food, and risk management can be solved much more efficiently in a city.

How will new technologies change the essence of a city?Essentially, cities will not change. Even in a smart city, technology runs in the background to allow people to contact one another. Somebody has to program the entire technology and decide on the radius in which a delivery robot operates. It ultimately always boils down to the interpersonal contact. Even if I book a self- driving taxi, I will still generally be going somewhere to meet another person.

Professor Smith, what exactly connects ancient and modern cities?Plenty! Starting with the look of them. There have always been large public squares, administrative buildings, and living spaces. Cities have an infrastructure that connects everything: roads, canals, ducts, and pipes. Then there are the social aspects: All cities have only become metropolises as a result of immigration.

Do cities follow a similar growth path?Cities always emerge for two reasons: either because the location is especially attractive, is conducive to good trade, or provides access to an important production factor, or because it has been founded by decree and a ruler wanted to create a new capital. Such settlements have been less successful, because they generally have no natural advantages. Once the ruler died, the residents simply moved away.

What other factors are needed for a city to flourish?Before the phenomenon of the “city” there were only a handful of places where many people could gather in a tight space. These were generally ritual centers such as Stone- henge in England or Göbekli Tepe in Turkey. People gathered there for a feast or something similar. It was also about meeting other people, finding a few exotic souvenirs, or a partner that someone would otherwise have never met. However, such sites were only intended to be temporary meeting places. Real cities created a place where a permanent festival atmosphere was present for the first time, with all the opportunities that go along with it: making things, trading things, and falling in love. People who move to cities have always hoped for a better and more exciting life.

Do humans possess an innate urge to create cities? Yes, I think so. All of the key elements needed for urbanization were part of our cognitive repertoire very early on. We were able to communicate with one another through language, move into new regions, and constantly invent new tools. Our species is defined by continuous innovation. Then there is the architecture that made places inhabitable for many people in the first place – whether high-rise apartments, factories, or railroad stations. We are constantly tailoring our environment to our needs. When the city was invented, these forms of settlement became so attractive and interesting that it is no longer possible to imagine our world without them.

MONICA L. SMITH is a professor of anthropology. She researches and teaches at the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at the University of California in Los Angeles. Her book, Cities. The First 6,000 Years, was published in 2019.PH

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Documents

FOCUS URBAN DEVELOPMENT FASCINATION AND FEAR · FASCINATION AND FEAR Anyone who thinks about the cities of the future probably envisages dirty, noisy concrete jungles surrounded by