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Focus on the FutureEnabling Growth….Or Just Keeping Up
HOUSTON
A MODERN/GLOBAL CITY
HOUSTONWhat makes It Tick?
• Energy
• Value of US $
• Trends in US Economy
• Medical Center
• International Trade
• Technology
HOUSTON WEATHERED THE
DOWNTURN SUPRISINGLY WELL
• Upstream Exploration fell off a cliff
• Downstream Expansion Surged due to low cost of feedstock
• Construction boom in East Harris County provided a 2-3 year cushion against the Upstream collapse
• That is mostly over now.
Houston EconomyAnnual Job Growth
www.metrostudy.com / www.builderonline.com
Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Greater Houston Partnership
+ 17,656 jobs over last
12 months /
March 2017
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$25
2000 2005 2010 2015
OIL PRICESWTI Spot Price, Monthly
2000-2017
Cushing OK, WTI Spot Price Monthly
A Contest Of Supply & DemandOPEC vs Free Market
Oil Entrepreneurs vs Cartel
Houston EconomyAnnual Job Growth by Sector
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
-200
-1200
1000
-4400
300
5800
-6200
14300
11400
9400
700
-10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
Manufacturing
Construction
Other Services
Mining and Logging
Financial Services
Professional and Business Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Government
Education and Health Svcs
Leisure and Hospitality
Information
ENERGY
Houston EconomyAnnual Job Growth by Sector
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
-200
-1200
1000
-4400
300
5800
-6200
14300
11400
9400
700
-10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
Manufacturing
Construction
Other Services
Mining and Logging
Financial Services
Professional and Business Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Government
Education and Health Svcs
Leisure and Hospitality
Information
ENERGY
Population Driven
Job Growth
Outlook for Growth
Robust Trend
Underscores the Need for Additional
Infrastructure
Ranking of ‘Cities of the Future’In the Americas
2017/18
Source:
Financial Times
fDi (Foreign Direct Investment) Rankings
Large Urban Zones of 4mm+
Factors On Which Ranking Based
• Economic Potential
• Business Friendliness
• Human Capital & Lifestyle
• Cost Effectiveness & Connectivity
Ranking of ‘Cities of the Future’In the Americas
2017/18
Source: Financial Times
fDi (Foreign Direct Investment) Rankings
Large Urban Zones of 4mm+
Ranking FactorsEconomic Potential
Business Friendliness
Human Capital & Lifestyle
Cost Effectiveness & Connectivity
Houston MSA-Population
9.1% 8.9% 8.4%9.5%
15.6%
13.6% 13.1%11.5%
6.5%
3.7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Age 0
to 5
Age 6
to 11
Age 12
to 17
Age 18
to 24
Age 25
to 34
Age 35
to 44
Age 45
to 54
Age 55
to 64
Age 65
to 74
75+
POPULATION BY AGE
Houston MSA
Harris County Median Age=32.1
Ft Bend County Median Age= 35
Houston MSA
20.6%
32.3%
18.8%21.4%
6.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
GenZ Millennial GenX Baby Boomer Traditionals
POPULATION BY GENERATION
Houston MSA
20.6%
32.3%
18.8%21.4%
6.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
GenZ Millennial GenX Baby Boomer Traditionals
POPULATION BY GENERATION
Houston MSA
Here they come!
Houston MSA
Houston MSA
HOUSTON HOUSING
“Takes a Licking and Keeps on Ticking”
Houston MLS
Annual Sales
Houston MSA
MLS Supply of Listings
Source: TRERC, HAR
Houston MLS Price Trend
$290,000
$230,000
Houston New Home Market HighlightsMSA Annual New Home Starts - Ranked
www.metrostudy.com / www.builderonline.com
Source: Metrostudy
Rank Market Annual Starts Annual Change % Change
1 Dallas/Ft.Worth 30,235 1,357 4.7%
2 Houston 25,789 -1,474 -5.4%
3 Atlanta 22,176 2,209 11.1%
4 Central Florida 21,491 2,548 13.5%
5 Phoenix/Tucson 20,528 1,025 5.3%
6 Denver/Colorado Springs 19,647 2,976 17.9%
7 Southern California 18,877 1,521 8.8%
8 Austin 15,368 2,713 21.4%
9 Northern California 13,610 -92 -0.7%
10 Charlotte 11,372 842 8.0%
11 Raleigh/Durham 11,242 805 7.7%
12 Salt Lake City 10,852 1,227 12.7%
13 San Antonio 10,511 815 8.4%
14 Philadelphia Region 10,249 406 4.1%
15 Suburban Maryland 9,674 -45 -0.5%
Houston New Home Market HighlightsAnnual New Home Starts and Closings
www.metrostudy.com / www.builderonline.com
25,789 Starts
26,777 Closings
Starts dropped 16% from cycle peak
But turned up 1Q-17
Affordability Requirements
• Lower Land Prices
• Flexible Development Regulations
• More density
• Simpler Floor Plans
Demand by Lot Size
Last 12 Months Starts
Demand by Lot Size
62% of all starts
On lots 55’ and Smaller
Price Distribution of Starts
on 50' Lots
0.0% 0.1%
12.4%
32.5%
25.0%25.9%
3.3%
0.8%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
12 Month Starts
Fort Bend County Housing
FBC Geographic
Development Pattern
FBC Existing Home Sales Trends
Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center, Texas A&M
Ft. Bend County Re-Sale Homes
Price Trends and Months of Inventory
Avg Price Stabilizing
at Low $300’s
Supply of Inventory
Rising Steadily,
But…..Still Tight Enough to
Support Moderately
Rising Prices
Housing Starts TrendsFort Bend County & Houston MSA
SF Demand Projection Thru 2020 = 6,600 – 7,400
Source: Metrostudy
Source: Metrostudy
Lot Width
Existing Lots vs Future (Planned)
Source: Metrostudy
Source: Metrostudy
FBC Population
1970
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,0005
2,0
00 13
2,9
62
22
5,4
21
1980 201020001990 2016
35
4,4
52
58
5,3
75 8
59
,27
4
Average Annual Population Growth
Historical & Projected
7,865
9,446
12,903
28,263
23,092
25,977
Random Thoughts
• Metro Rankings?
#1TOP U.S. METRO FOR EXPORTS IN 2015Department of Commerce - September 2016
LOCAL GOVERNMENT GREEN POWER PURCHASERSDepartment of Commerce - September 2016
TOP DESTINATION CITY – SEVENTH CONSECUTIVE YEARDepartment of Commerce - September 2016
HOUSTON TOPS CENSUS LIST ON NEW METRO AREA RESIDENTS – ADDING 159,083 RESIDENTS FROM 2014 - 2015Department of Commerce - September 2016
2015 DEAL OF THE YEARDepartment of Commerce - September 2016
TOP CITIES FOR COMPETITIVENESS TO ATTRACT INVESTMENT IN CHEMICALS & PLASTICSDepartment of Commerce - September 2016
TOP CITIES FOR COMPETITIVENESS TO ATTRACT INVESTMENT IN ENERGYDepartment of Commerce - September 2016
TOP CITIES FOR COMPETITIVENESS TO ATTRACT INVESTMENT IN MACHINERY, EQUIPMENT & CONSTRUCTIONDepartment of Commerce - September 2016
TOP CITIES FOR COMPETITIVENESS TO ATTRACT INVESTMENT IN METALSDepartment of Commerce - September 2016
TOP CITIES FOR COMPETITIVENESS TO ATTRACT INVESTMENT IN TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICSDepartment of Commerce - September 2016
BEST METRO FOR BUILDING WEALTHDepartment of Commerce - September 2016
TOP DEALS AND HOT MARKETS – "MEGA MARKET OF THE YEAR"Department of Commerce - September 2016
HOUSTON TOPS CENSUS LIST ON NEW METRO AREA RESIDENTS – ADDING 156,371 RESIDENTS FROM 2013 - 2014Department of Commerce - September 2016
FASTEST GROWING COUNTY IN TEXAS BY 2050 – HARRIS COUNTYAustin Business Journal (as reported by the Houston Business Journal) – March 10, 2015
FASTEST GROWING CITIES IN 2014The Houston Chronicle (as reported by Forbes) – January 27, 2015
WalletHub – January 14, 2015
Atlas Van Lines' Migration Pattern Study – January 1, 2015
BEST PLACES TO FIND A NEW JOB – SUGAR LAND AND THE WOODLANDSGrow Texas (as reported by Houston Business Journal) – 2014
Houston Chronicle – October 22, 2014
The New York Times – October 20, 2014
Department of Commerce (as reported by Houston Business Journal) – September 2, 2014
Forbes – July 2, 2014
U.S. Commerce Department (as reported by Houston Business Journal) – June 20, 2014
Forbes – June 19, 2014
Top Destination City – Fifth Consecutive YearU-Haul International – April 10, 2014
CreditDonkey – February 19, 2014
Manufacturers' News – January 2014
MOST FAVORABLE METRO FOR STEM WORKERS [NATIONALLY]WalletHub – January 14, 2015
MOST LUXURY HOME SALES IN TEXASTexas Association of Realtors - January 5, 2015
Interstate and Cross-Border Household Moves [to Houston]Atlas Van Lines' Migration Pattern Study – January 1, 2015
LARGEST GOODS-PRODUCING ECONOMY IN THE U.SBureau of Economic Analysis - 2014
BEST PLACES TO FIND A NEW JOB – SUGAR LAND AND THE WOODLANDSGrow Texas (as reported by Houston Business Journal) – 2014
Top Market For Real Estate Investment And Development Expectations For 2015Houston Chronicle – October 22, 2014
Top Destination Cities For College GraduatesThe New York Times – October 20, 2014
U.S. Metro for Exports in 2013Department of Commerce (as reported by Houston Business Journal) – September 2, 2014
LARGEST LIFE - SCIENCES ACCELERATOR - TEXAS MEDICAL CENTERTexas Medical Center - August 2014
TOP U.S. METRO FOR EXPORTS IN 2014Department of Commerce - August 25, 2015
Most Competitive Metros in AmericaForbes – July 2, 2014
Fastest Growth in Foreign VisitorsU.S. Commerce Department (as reported by Houston Business Journal) – June 20, 2014
Best Cities for ManufacturingForbes – June 19, 2014
Top Destination City – Fifth Consecutive YearU-Haul International – April 10, 2014
Best Cities for Young EntrepreneursCreditDonkey – February 19, 2014
Best Cities for Young CouplesCreditDonkey - January 22, 2014
Top U.S. Manufacturing CitiesManufacturers' News – January 2014
#1 Cont’d
Random Thoughts
• Metro Rankings?
• Future of Automobiles…
Random Thoughts
• Metro Rankings?
• Future of Automobiles…• Cheaper Energy
• More Efficient Gasoline Vehicles
• Solar & other renewable sources
• Electric Autos
• Autonomous Vehicles & Housing Choices
• Water Desalination
• Artificial Intelligence
Random Thoughts
• Metro Rankings?
• Future of Automobiles…• Cheaper Energy
• More Efficient Gasoline Vehicles
• Solar & other renewable sources
• Electric Autos
• Autonomous Vehicles & Housing Choices
• Water Desalination
• Artificial Intelligence
Fort Bend County
How Far &
How High
Can We Go?
