Upload
phamduong
View
228
Download
5
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
2015
KAZAKHSTAN FMCG TRENDS
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
2012
Th
e N
iels
en C
om
pan
y. C
on
fid
enti
al a
nd
pro
pri
etar
y.
2 2
CONTENTS
1 MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW
2 KAZAKHSTANI SHOPPER
3 FMCG SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
Regions Importance │ Channels Importance │ Key Players │
Top Categories
4 FOOD AND BEVERAGES
Confectionery │ Dairy │ Baby Care │ Beverages │Alcohol
5 NON FOOD
Personal Care │ Home Care
6 FMCG SLOWDOWN ANALYSIS
7 METHODOLOGY.
ECONOMIC UPDATE
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
2012
Th
e N
iels
en C
om
pan
y. C
on
fid
enti
al a
nd
pro
pri
etar
y.
4
2015 GDP GROWTH
GDP Growth Rate vs LY, %
26,4% 10,1% 16,2% 7,8%
XX% XX% XX%
XX%
XX%
XX%
XX%
XX%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Nominal Growth Physical Volume Deflator
XX%
XX%
XX%
XX%
XX%
2015 Forecast
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
2012
Th
e N
iels
en C
om
pan
y. C
on
fid
enti
al a
nd
pro
pri
etar
y.
5
Comment
KAZAKHSTAN GDP STRUCTURE
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
SERVICES GOODSXXXXXX XXXXXX
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
2012
Th
e N
iels
en C
om
pan
y. C
on
fid
enti
al a
nd
pro
pri
etar
y.
6
STRUCTURE OF FOREIGN TRADE TURNOVER
OTHER
MACHINERY &EQUIPMENT
ANIMAL & VEGETABLEPRODUCTS
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS
METALS
MINERAL PRODUCTS
OTHER
MINERAL PRODUCTS
METALS
ANIMAL & VEGETABLEPRODUCTS
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS
MACHINERY EQUIPMENT
EXPORT IMPORT
XX Category X
Category X
Category X
Category X
Category X
Category X
Category X
Category X
Category X
Category X
Category X
Category X
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
2012
Th
e N
iels
en C
om
pan
y. C
on
fid
enti
al a
nd
pro
pri
etar
y.
7
GOVERNMENT BUDGET SPENDING Spending Share, 2014 │ Change vs LY, %
SOCIAL CARE & SERVICES
EDUCATION HEALTH SERVICE
PUBLIC SECURITY
GOVERNMENT SERVICES
DEFENSE OTHER Category X
XX
XX XX
XX
XX XX
XX
Comment
Category X Category X
Category X
Category X
Category X
Category X
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
2012
Th
e N
iels
en C
om
pan
y. C
on
fid
enti
al a
nd
pro
pri
etar
y.
8
GOVERNMENT BUDGET REVENUE Income Share, 2014 │ Change vs LY, %
XX%
XX%
XX%
XX%
XX%
XX% XX%
Category X
SOURCE X
2014
XX% XX% XX%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Other Transferts Income TaxesSource X Source X
Category X
Category X
Category X
Category X
Category X
Category X
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
2012
Th
e N
iels
en C
om
pan
y. C
on
fid
enti
al a
nd
pro
pri
etar
y.
9
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
2012
Th
e N
iels
en C
om
pan
y. C
on
fid
enti
al a
nd
pro
pri
etar
y.
9
XXXXXX XXXX
~ $XX.
XXXXXX XXXX ~ $XX
XXXXXX XXXX ~ $XX
XXXXXX XXXX ~ $XX
XXXXXX XXXX ~ $XX
XXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXX
~ $XX.
XXXXXX XXXX ~ $XX
XXXXXX XXXX
~ $XX.
XXXXXX XXXX ~ $XX
XXXXXX XXXX ~ $XX
ANTI-CRISIS PROGRAM OF GOVERNMENT The overall package of measures is ~ $XX
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
2012
Th
e N
iels
en C
om
pan
y. C
on
fid
enti
al a
nd
pro
pri
etar
y.
10
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
2012
Th
e N
iels
en C
om
pan
y. C
on
fid
enti
al a
nd
pro
pri
etar
y.
10
The plan includes three main strategic directions:
DE-DOLLARIZATION PLAN OF THE ECONOMY FOR 2015-2016
• XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX • XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX • XXXXXX. • XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX • XXXXXXXXXXXX, • XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXX XXXX XXXX
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
2012
Th
e N
iels
en C
om
pan
y. C
on
fid
enti
al a
nd
pro
pri
etar
y.
11 11
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POPULATION, 2014
Urban population
POPULATION
XXXXXX
XX%
XX% XX%
XX%
XX% XX%
0 - 15 16 - 62 63+ 0 - 15 16 - 62 63+
XX%
URBAN POPULATION EMPLOYED PEOPLE
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
XXX XX%
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
2012
Th
e N
iels
en C
om
pan
y. C
on
fid
enti
al a
nd
pro
pri
etar
y.
12
AVERAGE NOMINAL INCOME PER CAPITA
Source: Agency of Statistics of Kazakhstan
XX XX
XX XX XX
XX XX
XX
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0%
1000%
2000%
3000%
4000%
5000%
6000%
7000%
8000%
2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 DEC'14
TENGE (Thous.) USD
Comment
CONTEMPORARY SHOPPER
Main Input
Fact X
Fact X
Fact X
Fact X
Fact X
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
2012
Th
e N
iels
en C
om
pan
y. C
on
fid
enti
al a
nd
pro
pri
etar
y.
15
XX
XX
XX XX
Source: Nielsen Shopper Trends Base: All shoppers (n=1000)
AGE OF A MAIN SHOPPER SHOPPER ROLES
SHOPPER PORTRAIT: “XXXXXXXXX”
XX XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
• Comment X
• Comment X
• Comment X
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
2012
Th
e N
iels
en C
om
pan
y. C
on
fid
enti
al a
nd
pro
pri
etar
y.
16
We have identified 6 Global Shopper Segments
Source: Nielsen Shopper Trends survey 2014
FMCG SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
2012
Th
e N
iels
en C
om
pan
y. C
on
fid
enti
al a
nd
pro
pri
etar
y.
18
FMCG MARKET DEVELOPMENT VALUE SHARE AND GROWTH RATES, MAT TY vs MAT LY | URBAN KAZAKHSTAN
Source: Nielsen retail audit data in cities with a population of more than 10 thousand people; based on data for 54 product categories
FMCG XX
XX%
XX%
XX%
XX% XX
XX XX
XX
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
2012
Th
e N
iels
en C
om
pan
y. C
on
fid
enti
al a
nd
pro
pri
etar
y.
19
FMCG MARKET DYNAMICS URBAN KAZAKHSTAN
Source: Nielsen retail audit data in cities with a population of more than 10 thousand people; based on data for 54 product categories
0%
7%
-7% -5%
-1% -1%
5%
11%
13%
9%
7%
11%
5%
1%
9%
21%
0%
2%
8% 7%
14%
20%
23%
21% 20%
26%
20%
14%
Volume Change Unit Value Change Nominal Growth
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
2012
Th
e N
iels
en C
om
pan
y. C
on
fid
enti
al a
nd
pro
pri
etar
y.
20
REGIONS IMPORTANCE VALUE SHARE AND CHANGE MAT TY vs MAT 2YAGO, % | URBAN KAZAKHSTAN
Source: Nielsen retail audit data in cities with a population of more than 10 thousand people; based on data for 54 product categories
WEST XX%
SOUTH XX%
EAST XX%
CENTER XX%
NORTH XX%
ALMATY XX%
ASTANA XX%
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
2012
Th
e N
iels
en C
om
pan
y. C
on
fid
enti
al a
nd
pro
pri
etar
y.
21
CHANNELS IMPORTANCE VALUE SHARE AND CHANGE MAT TY vs MAT 2YAGO, % | URBAN KAZAKHSTAN
Large Stores
(>100 sq. m.)
Medium and Small
Store (<100 sq. m.)
Drug Stores Kiosk and Pavilions
Open markets
Source: Nielsen retail audit data in cities with a population of more than 10 thousand people; based on data for 54 product categories
XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
2012
Th
e N
iels
en C
om
pan
y. C
on
fid
enti
al a
nd
pro
pri
etar
y.
22
TOP FMCG MANUFACTURERS VALUE SHARE, MAT TY| URBAN KAZAKHSTAN
Source: Nielsen retail audit data in cities with a population of more than 10 thousand people; based on data for 54 product categories
LACTALIS GROUP INC.
CARLSBERG GROUP
MARS INC.
PEPSICO
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO
PROCTER & GAMBLE
EFES BREWERIES INT.
COCA COLA CO.
PHILIP MORRIS INT.
JAPAN TOBACCO INT.Manufacturer X
Manufacturer X
Manufacturer X
Manufacturer X
Manufacturer X
Manufacturer X
Manufacturer X
Manufacturer X
Manufacturer X
Manufacturer X
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
2012
Th
e N
iels
en C
om
pan
y. C
on
fid
enti
al a
nd
pro
pri
etar
y.
23
TOP CATEGORIES IN FOOD AND BEVERAGES VALUE SHARE AND GROWTH RATES, MAT TY vs MAT LY | URBAN KAZAKHSTAN
Source: Nielsen retail audit data in cities with a population of more than 10 thousand people; based on data for 37 product categories
XX
C
ateg
ory
C
ateg
ory
C
ateg
ory
C
ateg
ory
C
ateg
ory
C
ateg
ory
C
ateg
ory
C
ateg
ory
C
ateg
ory
C
ateg
ory
XX
XX
XX XX
XX XX
XX XX XX
WINNING IN THE NEW ENVIRONMENT
KAZAKHSTAN FMCG 2015
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
2012
Th
e N
iels
en C
om
pan
y. C
on
fid
enti
al a
nd
pro
pri
etar
y.
25
KEY TRENDS TO WATCH IN 2015
ECONOMY DRIVES RETAIL SLOW DOWN
SAVINGS VS. LOYALTY
BACK TO MEDIUM& SMALL STORES