Florida in 2016:Again the Nation’s Premier

Swing State

Dr. Susan A. MacManus @DrMacManusUniversity of South Florida, Tampa

Dept. of Govt. & Intl. AffairsAnthony Cilluffo, Georgia Pevy, David Bonanza Research Associates

Florida Court Clerks and ComptrollersOrlando, Florida

June 28, 2016SLIDESHOW FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY

Election Dynamics in 2016• Florida: key battleground state• 2 major statewide races: President and U.S. Senate• 3 major elections: Presidential Primary (March 15),

Regular Primary (Aug. 30), General Election (Nov. 8)• 2 major national party conventions (GOP July 18-21;

DEM Week of July 25)• Fundraising for campaigns at all levels• Interface with national parties and PACs• Constant barrage of political-related media• New district lines—U.S. Congress, state legislature

Federal & State Offices Up for ElectionFederal• President and Vice President• U.S. Senate (one seat)• U.S. House of Representatives (Congress); all 27 seatsState: Statewide• 4 Supreme Ct. Justices (Canady, Polston, Labarga, Perry)—nonpartisan

retention election (Yes or No); terms expire Jan. 2017State: Multi-County/District• Florida Senate (all 40)• Florida House of Representatives (all 120)• District Court of Appeals judges whose terms expire Jan. 2017;

nonpartisan retention election (Yes or No)• Circuit Court judges whose terms expire Jan 2017; (nonpartisan

competitive elections); August primary• State Attorney (19 Judicial Circuits; not 20th)• Public Defender (19 Judicial Circuits; not 20th)• County Court judges whose terms expire Jan. 2017; (nonpartisan

competitive elections); August primary

Local Offices Up for Election (can vary from county-to-county)

Board of County Commissioners

School Board (nonpartisan); primary in August

Elected School Superintendent (41 counties)

County Constitutional Offices • Sheriff• Tax Collector• Property Appraiser• Clerk of the Circuit Court• Supervisor of Elections (all counties but Miami-Dade)

Florida U.S. Senate Race – Competitive!

Democratic:

• Alan Grayson

• Pam Keith

• Patrick Murphy

Republican:

• Carlos Beruff

• Marco Rubio

Down-Ballot Impact

What’s Different in 2016?

Voter AttitudesTrust levelsFearsAnger

Tone of Candidates, AdsHeightened Activism/Protests

Direction of the Country

Presidential Job Approval

Congressional Job Approval

Americans Distrustful of Govt.

Americans Distrustful of Media

Americans Distrustful of Wall Street• Does Wall Street do more to…

• New York DEM (%) REP (%)

Help the economy 30 43

Hurt the economy 63 48

• Connecticut DEM (%) REP (%)

Help the economy 29 50

Hurt the economy 63 41

• Maryland DEM (%) REP (%)

Help the economy 33 50

Hurt the economy 55 39

Americans Wary of Global Involvement

Widespread Financial Insecurity—At Home and Nationally

• Two-thirds (66%) of Americans would struggle to pay an unexpected $1,000 bill

• Only 22% of Americans say the national economy has recovered

–66% of Americans describe their personal finances as “good”

• 62% have not received a pay increase in recent years

Income Disparities in Florida

Florida Economy Diversifying

Economy, Jobs and Terrorism Topping Voter’s Minds in Presidential Race

Issue % Extremely/Very Important

– The Economy 92

– Employment and Jobs 89

– Terrorism and Nat’l Security 87

– Education 86

– Healthcare and ACA 83

Gallup Poll, May 18-22, 2016, of 1,530 U.S. adults. Margin of error ±3%

Issue % Extremely/Very Important

– The Economy 92

– Employment and Jobs 89

– Terrorism and Nat’l Security 87

– Education 86

– Healthcare and ACA 83

Fear for Personal and Family Security

• “San Bernardino Terrorist Attack Shatters Southern California’s Illusion of Safety”

• “At Butler County School, A Day of Fear’”

• “‘We Need Healing,’ Pastor Says After Fatal Church Shooting During Hymns”

Terrorism Random Shootings

Orlando Massacre

Intersection:

Terrorism and Random Shootings

Q. Was it Terrorism? Lack of Gun Control?

A. Opinions divided; Partisan Polarization!

Pop Culture and Politics

Florida: Nation’s Premier Swing State

First Battleground Map: 2016 Gen. Election

Map of Main Battleground States: 2016 Gen. Election

Record Levels of Dislike Towards Candidates

Dislike is Motivating Voters

Right Now: US Look

What is a Swing State?

Diversity• Race/ethnicity• Age• Economic• Party AffiliationAbility to Pick Winning Candidate

Florida’s Close!!2010 Gov., 2012 Pres., 2014 Gov.

Results

Obama 50.0%Romney 49.1%

Scott 48.9% Sink 47.7%

Scott 48.2%Crist 47.1%

Turnout

Florida Picks Winners!

High Level of Party Competition

Party Registration Trend: FLA. 1972- Mar. 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Mar

ch 2

016

Per

cen

t

Florida Voter Registration by Party Affiliation: 1972 - 2016(Through March 2016 Presidential Preference Primary)

Republican Democrat Other

Race/Ethnicity

6.1

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.5

0.6

0.7

1.3

1.3

1.4

2.0

2.4

2.4

2.5

3.2

4.1

7.1

14.9

20.1

28.7

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

All other Hispanic or Latino

Paraguayan

Bolivian

Uruguayan

Costa Rican

Chilean

Panamanian

Salvadoran

Argentinean

Ecuadorian

Guatemalan

Peruvian

Venezuelan

Honduran

Nicaraguan

Dominican

Colombian

Mexican

Puerto Rican

Cuban

Percent

Ethnicity of Florida's Hispanics (2010)

Racial/Ethnic Vote: FL

Focus on Generations in 2016

Why Look at Generations?

• Generational differences, especially in racial and ethnic composition, political preferences, and news sources, have become a major focal point of today’s campaigns.

• Analyses of the two “super generations,” the Millennials and the Baby Boomers, have made it clear that successful campaigns need to micro-target voters differently across generations, sometimes even within the same party.

•

Living Generations: Major Life Events, Presidents

Generation Born Age (2016) Major Events Presidents*

Greatest Generation/

GI Generation

Before

1928

89+ World War II, The Great

Depression, The New Deal

Franklin Delano Roosevelt

The Silent Generation 1928-

1945

71-88 Postwar Happiness, Era of

Conformity, Korean War

Harry Truman and Dwight

Eisenhower

The Baby Boomers 1946-

1964

52-70 Civil Rights Movement, 60s

Youth Culture—Save the

World Activism, Drugs, Free

Love, Vietnam War

John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B.

Johnson, Richard Nixon,

Gerald Ford, and Jimmy

Carter

Generation X 1965-

1980

36-51 MTV, 24-hour news, latch-key

kids, transition to computers,

AIDS

Ronald Reagan, George

H.W. Bush, and Bill Clinton

Millennials/

Generation Y

After

1980

18 to

35**

9/11, Social Media, Iraq and

Afghanistan conflicts, Great

Recession, BP oil spill

George W. Bush and

Barack Obama

Reaching Younger Voters

Gender in 2016

Gender Gap: FL

Religion in Florida (Pew)70% Christian

24% Evangelical Protestants14% Mainline Protestants8% Historically Black Protestants

21% Catholic6% Non-Christian Faiths

3% Jewish<1% each--Muslin, Buddhist, Hindu, and other

24% Unaffiliated (“no religion,” secular)

Urban-Suburban-Rural Split

Media Market Definitions

Recap: Florida Presidential Preference Primary (March)

Republicans: Turnout and Vote Patterns by Media Market

•

47

33

47

5249

4844

37

4945 46

24

49

2523 25

22 24 2419

2427

18

10

18

1318 17

22

2924

2117

75 6 9 5

97 7

5 6 7

56 49 57 55 56 62 53 56 53 54 55

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Turn

ou

t Pe

rcen

t (%) fo

r Party

Pe

rce

nt (

%) o

f Vo

tes

Cas

t fo

r Par

ty

2016 Republican Primary Results and Turnout Rate:Florida's 10 Media Markets

(by Size of Media Market, Largest to Smallest)

Trump Rubio Cruz Kasich Turnout

Democrats: Turnout and Vote Patterns by Media Market

•

61

73

62

69

63 63

58

58

49 49

64

36

26

36

29 34 34

38 38 42

48

33

39 34 38 39 37 38 36 43

31 44 37

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Turnout Percent (%

) for PartyPe

rcen

t (%

) of

Vot

es C

ast f

or P

arty

2016 Democratic Primary Results and Turnout Rate:Florida's 10 Media Markets

(by Size of Media Market, Largest to Smallest)

Clinton Sanders Turnout

Gender Patterns: Florida PPP• Gender DEM (%) REP (%)

Male 42 49

Female 58 51

• Marital Status

& Gender DEM (%)

Married Men 24

Married Women 30

Unmarried Men 16

Unmarried Women 30

Age Patterns: Florida PPP

• Age DEM (%) REP (%)

18-29 15 9

30-44 20 17

45-64 39 45

65 and Older 25 29

Race/Ethnicity: Florida PPP• Race/Ethnicity DEM (%) REP (%)

White 48 78

Black 27 3

Latino 20 16

Asian 2 1

Other 3 2

• Hispanics DEM (%) REP (%)

Cubans 3 9

Other Hispanics 13 6

Not Hispanic 83 85

Education and Income: Florida PPP• Education DEM (%) REP (%)

High School or less 19 17

Some College 33 31

College Graduate 32 35

Postgraduate 16 17

• Income DEM (%) REP (%)

Under $50,000 50 33

$50,000-$100,000 31 32

$100,000 or more 19 35

Religion and Ideology: Florida PPP• Religion DEM (%) REP (%)

Protestant 36 51

Catholic 22 29

Jewish 4 2

Another Religion 16 11

No Religion 21 8

• Ideology DEM (%) REP (%)

Liberal 54 3

Moderate 37 27

Conservative 9 70

Timing and Geography of Voters: Florida PPP

• Timing of Vote

Decision DEM (%) REP (%)

Within last week 17 28

Last month 15 23

Earlier 67 47

• Geography DEM (%) REP (%)

Urban 52 40

Suburban 42 49

Rural 5 11

58% 56%

43%

33%

43%

38%

29%

19% 20%

42% 41%

46%

59% 58%

44%

31% 32%36%

31%35%

26%25% 26%

18% 21%

77%74%

79%74%

77% 77% 75% 73%

83%

67%70%

74% 75%

72%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Pe

rce

nt

of V

ote

rs (%

)Florida Presidential Election Voter Turnout, 1960-2016

Presidential Preference Primary First Primary General Election

Turnout in Presidential Election Increases (Florida Data)

• Presidential 2008 75%• Presidential Preference Primary 42%• Governor 2010 (midterm) 49%

• Presidential 2012 72%

• Presidential Preference Primary 41%

• Governor 2014 (midterm) 50%

• Presidential 2016 ?• Presidential Preference Primary 46%

Sharpest Increase in Turnout in Presidential Elections

• Young Voters

• Minorities (African Americans; Hispanics)

• Unmarried Females

Issues Important to Base: GOTV (Turnout) Mechanisms

Democrats• Minimum Wage• Restoration of felon voting rights• Income Inequality• Medicaid expansion• Election processes • Gun control/Stand Your Ground• Police conduct/sentencing

disparities • Reproductive rights • Marijuana legalization• Cost of education• Environment• Social Services• Fracking

Republicans• Economy/economic development• Jobs• Immigration• Taxes/Tax Breaks & Incentives• Government spending• 2nd Amendment/Gun rights• Religious freedom• Common Core• Uber/Lyft• Law Enforcement Funding• School choice• Fraud in registration/voting/illegals

Florida Politics at Your Fingertips

USF-NIELSEN STATEWIDE SURVEY:FOCUS ON ISSUES AND POLICIES

sunshinestatesurvey.org

2016 Surveycoming in October

Looming Questions

• Unforeseen event(s)?

• Debate performances?

• Anti-establishment voter turnout?

• Cross-over vote?

• Third party candidate?

• Suburban white women vote?

• Violence and political protests?

Fla. Right Now: Dead Heat

Expectations Going Into 2016: Close, AGAIN!

Swing

State!

Gender in 2016

Direction of the Country

Presidential Job Approval

Congressional Job Approval

Age

Young v. Old Voters: FL

Horse Race Polls Under Attack

Pundit Prediction

• “There are plenty of subplots in the unfolding [2016] presidential election, but the gender fight is among the most interesting of them—and one that will be critical to the outcome.” Charlie Cook, political

analyst, National Journal, June 27, 2015

Women in 2016

• Women candidates are becoming more effective at combatting gender stereotypes.

• Virtually every major campaign now has female managers, strategists, pollsters, and consultants on board to ensure that female voters are targeted and mobilized.

• Women are everywhere in media campaign coverage —as anchors, reporters, commentators, columnists, and bloggers.

Top Candidate Quality: Florida PPP• Top Candidate

Quality DEM (%) REP (%)

Electability 12 10

Other Qualities-DEM

Experience 35

Honest 25

Cares 25

Other Qualities-REP

Shares my values 34

Can bring change 28

Tells it like it is 23

How do Florida PPP Voters Stand on the Democratic Candidates?

Candidate Attitudes--DEM Hillary Clinton

(%)

Bernie Sanders

(%)_____’s positions on

the issues are…

Too Liberal 11 27

Not Liberal Enough 17 16

About Right 68 50

Is _____ honest and

trustworthy?

Yes 63 75

No 35 20

Are _____’s policies… Realistic 80 48

Not Realistic 15 46

How do Florida PPP Voters Stand on the Republican Candidates?

Candidate Attitudes--REP Trump

(%)

Rubio

(%)

Cruz

(%)

If _____ wins the GOP

nomination, would you…

Not Vote for Him 25 24 23

Probably Vote for Him 16 28 31

Definitely Vote for Him 57 45 43

Is _____ honest and

trustworthy?

Yes 49 55 48

No 44 40 44

Overall Turnout: 50%

11

18

2123

5

10

3033

23

35

20

28

20

1

9

44

37

11

24

2527

23

5

11

44 43

15

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Mar

gin

of

Vic

tory

in M

edia

Mar

ket

Margin of Victory 2010 GOV, 2012 PRES, 2014 GOV

Media Markets(Blue) DEM Victory(Red) REP Victory

Record Levels of Dislike Towards Candidates

GOP Race to Date

Dem. Race to Date

Electoral Map: 2016 Gen. Election

Democrat-Specific Issues: Florida PPPIssue Positions Democrats

(%)The next president

should…

Continue Obama’s Policies 55

Be More Liberal 25

Be Less Liberal 14

Race relations in this

country have…

Gotten Better 19

Stayed the Same 32

Gotten Worse 46

Who do you trust to

handle race relations?

Only Clinton 25

Only Sanders 17

Both 46

Neither 7

Are you worried about the

U.S. Economy?

Very Worried 33

Somewhat Worried 32

Not Too Worried 25

Not at All Worried 9

The candidate’s gender

was…

The Most Important Factor 6

An Important Factor 16

Not a Factor 76

Republican-Specific Issues:Florida PPP

Issue Positions Republicans

(%)Illegal immigrants working in

the U.S. should be…

Offered Legal Status 54

Deported to Home Country 37

Do you support or oppose a

temporary ban on Muslims

entering the U.S.?

Support 64

Oppose 26

What are your feelings about

the federal government?

Enthusiastic 2

Satisfied 10

Dissatisfied 46

Angry 40

Do you feel betrayed by

Republican politicians?

Yes 60

No 37

If Trump and Clinton were

nominated, would you…

Be Satisfied 62

Consider a Third Party 29

Is it necessary to reduce Social

Security benefits?

Yes 30

No 67

Is U.S. support for Israel… Too Strong 8

Not Strong Enough 60

About Right 28

Top Issue and Candidate Quality:Issue Positions Democrats

(%)

Republicans

(%)Most Important Issue Economy/Jobs 35 35

Terrorism 15 22

Other Issues—DEM

Health Care

Income Inequality

25

21

Other Issues—REP

Government Spending

Immigration

26

12

Top Candidate Quality Electability 12 10

Other Qualities—DEM

Experience

Honest

Cares

35

25

25

Other Qualities—REP

Shares my Values

Can Bring Change

Tells it Like it is

34

28

23

The Next President

Should Be…

Experienced in Politics 77 40

Outside the

Establishment 18 52