Long-term EconomicForecast 2002

Volume 2 - State & Counties

David G. Lenze

August 2002

Florida

University of FloridaCharles E. Young, President

Warrington College of Business AdministrationJohn Kraft, Dean

Bureau of Economic and Business ResearchStanley K. Smith, DirectorGeorgia S. Baldwin, Database Manager

Forecasting ProgramCarol T. West, Program DirectorDavid G. Lenze, Associate Program Director

Information and Publication ServicesSusan S. Floyd, Program DirectorCarol L. GriffenDorothy A. Evans

Bureau of Economic and Business ResearchWarrington College of Business AdministrationUniversity of Florida221 Matherly HallP. O. Box 117145Gainesville, Florida 32611-7145info@bebr.ufl.eduhttp://www.BEBR.ufl.eduPhone (352) 392-0171 FAX (352) 392-4739

Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002Volume 2: State & CountiesISBN 0-930885-85-6

Table of Contents

The Economic Outlook to 2015 .................................................................................................................... 5The state outlook .................................................................................................................................... 5The long-term outlook ............................................................................................................................ 6County outlook ....................................................................................................................................... 6

Tables

Forecast tables for Florida, counties and planning districts .............................................................................. 9County rankings ........................................................................................................................................ 247

Appendices

Data appendix for counties and planning districts ....................................................................................... 259Statistical discrepancies ............................................................................................................................. 497Data dictionary ......................................................................................................................................... 498Notes ....................................................................................................................................................... 501Definitions of areas and regions ................................................................................................................. 502Map of Florida ......................................................................................................................................... 503

Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties 5

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The Economic Outlook to 2015David G. Lenze

Florida will post little growth in employment and sales in 2002. The mild recession of 2001 has beensucceeded by a mild recovery in the first half of 2002. Although the economy should strengthen in the secondhalf of the year, it won’t be until 2003 before the major economic aggregates resume their customary growth.Over the longer term, the pace of job creation will slacken as Florida’s population growth converges towardthe lower national rate. Gathering momentum in the national economy in 2010 and 2011 is choked off byhigher interest rates in 2012. An inflationary boom is averted at the cost of somewhat weaker than trendgrowth that year. This shows up as a mild “growth cycle” in Florida’s construction sector.

Figure 1. - Employment growth(change from previous year, in thousands of jobs)

The State Outlook

Florida did not lose any jobs in the recession of 2001when the data are examined on an annual average basis(Figure 1). The state actually managed to eke out a gainof 118 thousand jobs, very close to our forecast of 124thousand jobs. Just like the recovery from the 1990-91recession, the current recovery is not generating largenumbers of new jobs. We foresee a gain of only 120thousand jobs in 2002 and most of these will be formed inthe second half of the year. Growth accelerates next yearto 169 thousand jobs, a gain that is still far below jobgrowth in the mid to late 1990s when gains averaged 215thousand per year.

Florida’s unemployment rate converged on thenational rate in 2001. It averaged 0.3 percentage pointsless in the previous five years. We forecast that Floridawill continue to match the national unemployment rate in2002 and 2003. The U.S. rate rises to 6.0 percent in 2002and then falls to 5.7 percent in 2003. Preliminary monthlydata for 2002 seem to indicate that such a forecast mayperhaps be too pessimistic for Florida and that it is possiblethat a stronger state economy could bring itsunemployment rate a few tenths of a percentage pointbelow the national rate as early as this year.

Population growth slowed in 2001 and will slowfurther this year. The state will add 289 thousandresidents in 2002, the first time population growth hasfallen below 300 thousand in five years. Populationgrowth will be the same in 2003; the accelerating jobgrowth in that year will not draw more in-migrants tothe state until 2004.

The recession held real personal income growth toonly 2.6 percent in 2001. As the recovery gathers strength,income growth accelerates to 3.3 percent in 2002 and4.4 percent in 2003.

The robust housing sector continues to amazeobservers and will perhaps propel starts in 2002 abovethe last year’s already high level. We expect 169,500 unitsto be started. Eventually demographic reality mustreassert itself in the marketplace. The forecast assumesthis happens next year with starts plummeting to 144thousand in 2003.

Real taxable sales barely registered an increase in2001, increasing less than $1 billion. Sales will increase$2.5 billion in 2002 but not until next year will the gainsresemble growth of the 1990s. Real taxable sales willgrow nearly $10 billion in 2003.

6 Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida

Figure 2. - Housing starts(thousands)

growing by $14.1 billion in 2011, real taxable sales growthslows to $12.5 billion in 2012 under the combinedinfluence of weaker income growth, fewer housing startsand higher interest rates. The slowdown is onlytemporary and real taxable sales growth accelerates ineach subsequent year.

County Outlook

A convenient way to briefly summarize theeconomic outlook for Florida’s sixty-seven counties is togroup them by their economic bases. Five common anddistinctive economic bases are tourism, retirement, miningand manufacturing, farming, and state government. Someof these economic groupings are also geographically similar.For instance, the mining and manufacturing counties (exceptfor Brevard County) are all in north Florida. Most, but notall of Florida’s counties, can be classified in one of thesecategories, some fit into more than one:

• The six counties with the largest shares of wagesearned in tourism-related industries are Monroe,Nassau, Orange, Osceola, St. Johns, and Walton(tourism-related industries are listed in Table19.75 of the Florida Statistical Abstract.)

• The ten counties with the largest shares ofretirees (i.e., residents age 65 or more) areCharlotte, Citrus, Flagler, Hernando, Highlands,Indian River, Martin, Pasco, Sarasota, and Sumter.

• The eight counties with the largest shares ofwages earned in mining and manufacturing

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The Long-Term Outlook

From now until 2015, the strongest job growth in thestate will occur in 2004—just over 200 thousand jobs.Growth slows over time as both population growth slowsand an aging population begins to retire. During 2011-15job growth averages only 107 thousand per year, a pacebelow that experienced in the recession of 2001. Florida’seconomy in 2011-15, however, remains healthy.

The vigorous job growth of 2004 leads to the biggestdrop in the unemployment rate—to 5 percent—from itsrecessionary peak. Unemployment hovers at 5 percentof the civilian labor force for the next several years assteady economic growth provides just enough jobs fornew entrants to the labor force. The national forecastused to drive the Florida forecast includes a mild growthcycle with a spurt of growth 2010-2011 followed by severalweaker years. The spurt of growth drives Florida’sunemployment to 4.1 percent briefly before it climbs backto 4.5 percent. This cycle is not strong enough to setrecord low unemployment rates as the surge in growth atthe end of the 1990s did.

The peak year for population growth occurs in 2005when the state adds 324 thousand residents. This peak isone year after the peak in job growth, reflecting the laggedrelationship that has historically existed betweenpopulation and job growth. After this peak, populationgrowth dwindles nearly every year until falling to 253thousand in 2015.

Real income growth averages nearly 4 percent peryear over the long run (2001-15). Particularly stronggrowth occurs in 2004 (4.7 percent) and in 2011 (4.5percent). Strong growth in the earlier year is part of therecovery from last year’s recession. Strong growth in2011 is due to the mild growth cycle in the nationalforecast.

In the long run, housing demand is fundamentally amatter of demographics. The forecasted slowdown inpopulation growth, therefore, ought to translate into aslowdown in housing starts as well. To be sure, thedemographic trend will be offset to some extent bydemand for second homes and a rising need to replaceold and obsolescent housing stock. However, instead ofa gradual reduction in housing starts over the long term,starts fluctuate between 142 and 149 thousand over theforecast horizon with a brief surge to 162 thousand in2011 (Figure 2). This surge is an artifact of the growthcycle built into the national forecast.

Real taxable sales will tend to track personal incomegrowth from 2004 onwards but will also respond to thecyclical pattern in housing starts and the cost of financingconsumer purchases on credit. Accordingly, after

Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties 7

Figure 3. - Employment growthrate from 2000

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are Bradford, Brevard, Dixie, Hamilton, Madison,Putnam, Taylor, and Wakulla counties.

• The eight counties with the largest shares of farmearnings are De Soto, Gilchrist, Glades, Hardee,Hendry, Highlands, Lafayette, and Okeechobee.

• The ten counties with the largest shares of stategovernment earnings are Baker, Bradford,Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Jackson, Leon, Liberty,Union, and Washington.

Despite relatively severe recent job losses, long-term employment growth will be fastest in counties witha large tourism base (Figure 3). Employment will grow41 percent from 2000 to 2015 in these counties. Thestrong job performance, however, does not begin until2003. Counties with a large retirement base also growrelatively fast over this period—32 percent. Unlike thetourist counties they did not lose jobs in last year’srecession. In fact, these counties performed far betterthan the other four groups.

Employment prospects are weakest for the miningand manufacturing counties. We forecast job growth ofonly 20 percent from 2000 to 2015. Job growth in farmingcounties (24 percent) will outpace that of the mining andmanufacturing counties over the long-term. However, thefarming counties, like the tourist counties, had relativelylarge job losses in the recent recession. Counties withlarge state government sectors will grow faster than thefarming counties, but not as fast as the statewide average.Statewide job growth will average 30 percent but only 26percent in counties with a large share of employment instate government.

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The Florida Long-Term Economic Forecast isbased on a set of econometric models estimated bythe Bureau of Economic and Business Research atthe University of Florida and a national forecastpurchased from DRI-WEFA. The employment totals forthe state and counties are consistent with the Agencyfor Workforce Innovation’s Florida Industry andOccupation Employment Projections 2000-2010.

Forecast tables

10 Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida

Long-term forecast for Florida1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 6,636.5 6,827.0 7,080.6 7,198.6 7,318.7 7,488.0change from previous year 222.1 190.5 253.6 118.1 120.1 169.4percent change (%) 3.5 2.9 3.7 1.7 1.7 2.3

Unemployment rate (%) 4.3 3.9 3.6 4.8 6.0 5.7

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 405,146 419,096 445,740 467,189 488,883 520,438change from previous year (millions of dollars) 27,473 13,950 26,644 21,449 21,694 31,555percent change (%) 7.3 3.4 6.4 4.8 4.6 6.5

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 392,568 400,463 416,441 427,233 441,332 460,942change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 22,110 7,895 15,978 10,791 14,100 19,609percent change (%) 6.0 2.0 4.0 2.6 3.3 4.4

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 25,628 25,538 25,915 26,051 26,444 27,150change from previous year (97 dollars) 949 -90 377 136 393 706percent change (%) 3.8 -0.4 1.5 0.5 1.5 2.7

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 209,861 228,405 244,258 247,600 248,168 261,979change from previous year (millions of dollars) 13,536 18,543 15,853 3,342 568 13,811percent change (%) 6.9 8.8 6.9 1.4 0.2 5.6

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 209,514 226,172 236,654 237,565 240,065 249,627change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 14,611 16,658 10,482 911 2,500 9,562percent change (%) 7.5 8.0 4.6 0.4 1.1 4.0

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 138.1 150.5 157.1 162.6 169.5 143.9Single-family 97.9 104.2 108.2 114.4 124.6 108.0Multifamily 40.2 46.3 48.9 48.1 44.9 35.8

Total housing stock 7,061.3 7,204.2 7,337.4 7,482.3 7,635.1 7,786.7Single-family and multifamily 6,186.4 6,325.6 6,459.6 6,600.8 6,742.0 6,883.2Mobile homes 874.9 878.5 877.8 881.4 893.0 903.4

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 110.9 120.2 125.3 133.7 127.6 115.5percent change (%) 11.3 8.4 4.2 6.7 -4.6 -9.5

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 124.3 126.4 151.9 214.0 139.8 136.6percent change (%) -7.0 1.7 20.2 40.9 -34.7 -2.3

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 115.9 133.1 126.3 115.6 121.1 118.1percent change (%) 14.4 14.9 -5.0 -8.5 4.7 -2.5

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 105.5 111.7 119.4 128.2 128.8 109.9percent change (%) 14.7 5.9 6.8 7.3 0.5 -14.7

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 15,317.9 15,680.8 16,069.4 16,399.7 16,689.0 16,977.9change from previous year 306.5 362.9 388.7 330.3 289.3 288.9percent change (%) 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.7

Households 6,074.9 6,218.8 6,372.7 6,510.8 6,662.7 6,778.5change from previous year 122.2 143.9 154.0 138.1 151.9 115.8percent change (%) 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.3 1.7

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties 11

Long-term forecast for Florida (continued)2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 7,689.4 7,868.4 8,029.3 8,179.7 8,333.6 8,486.7change from previous year 201.3 179.0 160.9 150.4 154.0 153.1percent change (%) 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8

Unemployment rate (%) 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.7

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 556,472 589,316 623,928 659,091 697,482 739,580change from previous year (millions of dollars) 36,034 32,844 34,612 35,163 38,391 42,098percent change (%) 6.9 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.8 6.0

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 482,650 500,520 519,262 537,352 557,100 578,639change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 21,708 17,870 18,742 18,090 19,748 21,539percent change (%) 4.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.9

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 27,910 28,412 28,962 29,481 30,091 30,788change from previous year (97 dollars) 760 502 550 519 610 697percent change (%) 2.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.3

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 278,857 293,921 308,450 323,131 339,381 357,794change from previous year (millions of dollars) 16,878 15,065 14,529 14,681 16,250 18,412percent change (%) 6.4 5.4 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.4

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 261,818 272,043 281,728 291,200 301,688 313,668change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 12,191 10,225 9,684 9,472 10,488 11,980percent change (%) 4.9 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.6 4.0

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 147.3 149.3 147.4 145.5 147.1 149.2Single-family 108.5 108.8 107.3 105.7 106.4 107.3Multifamily 38.8 40.5 40.1 39.8 40.7 41.9

Total housing stock 7,938.0 8,088.6 8,243.6 8,398.3 8,552.5 8,706.9Single-family and multifamily 7,024.4 7,165.6 7,310.1 7,454.5 7,599.0 7,743.5Mobile homes 913.6 922.9 933.5 943.8 953.5 963.4

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 119.4 122.9 124.6 126.9 131.8 137.8percent change (%) 3.4 2.9 1.4 1.8 3.9 4.5

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 140.2 143.6 145.8 149.2 153.3 157.6percent change (%) 2.7 2.4 1.5 2.3 2.8 2.8

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 121.7 126.2 129.7 134.5 141.4 149.3percent change (%) 3.1 3.7 2.8 3.7 5.1 5.6

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 114.1 117.0 117.5 118.2 122.2 127.3percent change (%) 3.8 2.5 0.4 0.6 3.4 4.2

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 17,292.9 17,616.4 17,928.9 18,227.2 18,514.0 18,794.4change from previous year 315.0 323.6 312.5 298.3 286.8 280.4percent change (%) 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5

Households 6,926.2 7,050.8 7,196.8 7,340.7 7,465.3 7,611.2change from previous year 147.7 124.7 146.0 143.9 124.7 145.9percent change (%) 2.2 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.7 2.0

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

12 Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida

Long-term forecast for Florida (continued)2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 8,653.2 8,796.6 8,892.5 8,999.2 9,120.6 9,223.9change from previous year 166.6 143.4 95.8 106.7 121.4 103.3percent change (%) 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.1

Unemployment rate (%) 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 785,792 840,015 893,824 950,037 1,011,539 1,077,410change from previous year (millions of dollars) 46,212 54,223 53,809 56,213 61,502 65,870percent change (%) 6.2 6.9 6.4 6.3 6.5 6.5

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 601,854 628,754 652,990 677,065 702,130 727,643change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 23,215 26,900 24,236 24,075 25,064 25,514percent change (%) 4.0 4.5 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.6

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 31,551 32,484 33,274 34,055 34,869 35,689change from previous year (97 dollars) 763 933 790 781 814 820percent change (%) 2.5 3.0 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 378,838 401,854 423,637 448,016 474,674 502,817change from previous year (millions of dollars) 21,044 23,017 21,783 24,378 26,658 28,143percent change (%) 5.9 6.1 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.9

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 327,228 341,413 353,918 367,522 381,624 395,838change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 13,559 14,185 12,505 13,604 14,102 14,214percent change (%) 4.3 4.3 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 156.1 162.0 153.7 146.1 142.9 142.0Single-family 111.1 114.5 108.4 101.6 97.8 96.7Multifamily 45.0 47.5 45.3 44.5 45.0 45.3

Total housing stock 8,861.1 9,013.4 9,165.4 9,317.0 9,468.8 9,620.6Single-family and multifamily 7,887.9 8,030.4 8,172.8 8,315.3 8,457.7 8,600.2Mobile homes 973.2 983.0 992.6 1,001.7 1,011.1 1,020.4

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 147.5 157.7 158.9 159.1 162.2 167.2percent change (%) 7.1 6.9 0.8 0.2 1.9 3.1

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 163.3 169.5 174.1 176.7 180.5 185.0percent change (%) 3.6 3.8 2.7 1.5 2.1 2.5

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 159.9 172.0 180.1 185.4 191.9 199.7percent change (%) 7.1 7.5 4.7 2.9 3.5 4.1

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 137.3 147.3 143.9 140.8 141.8 145.3percent change (%) 7.9 7.2 -2.3 -2.1 0.7 2.4

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 19,075.6 19,355.8 19,624.7 19,881.7 20,136.0 20,388.6change from previous year 281.2 280.3 268.9 257.0 254.3 252.6percent change (%) 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3

Households 7,762.2 7,907.9 8,051.0 8,175.9 8,317.0 8,459.6change from previous year 151.0 145.7 143.1 124.9 141.0 142.6percent change (%) 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties 13

Long-term forecast for Alachua County1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 114.7 117.2 121.1 122.2 123.1 125.2change from previous year 3.1 2.6 3.9 1.1 0.8 2.1percent change (%) 2.7 2.2 3.3 0.9 0.7 1.7

Unemployment rate (%) 2.5 2.1 1.9 2.6 3.0 3.0

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 4,938 5,063 5,347 5,629 5,922 6,300change from previous year (millions of dollars) 332 124 284 283 293 378percent change (%) 7.2 2.5 5.6 5.3 5.2 6.4

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 4,785 4,838 4,995 5,148 5,346 5,580change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 267 53 158 153 198 234percent change (%) 5.9 1.1 3.3 3.1 3.8 4.4

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 22,958 22,674 22,789 23,026 23,622 24,345change from previous year (97 dollars) 951 -284 115 237 596 723percent change (%) 4.3 -1.2 0.5 1.0 2.6 3.1

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 2,246 2,435 2,586 2,659 2,701 2,882change from previous year (millions of dollars) 7 189 151 73 42 181percent change (%) 0.3 8.4 6.2 2.8 1.6 6.7

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 2,242 2,411 2,505 2,551 2,613 2,746change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 19 169 94 46 62 133percent change (%) 0.9 7.5 3.9 1.8 2.4 5.1

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.0 1.5Single-family 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8Multifamily 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.7

Total housing stock 93.2 94.6 95.4 96.5 98.1 99.7Single-family and multifamily 81.8 83.0 84.4 86.0 87.5 89.0Mobile homes 11.4 11.6 10.9 10.5 10.6 10.7

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 120.4 196.6 166.0 148.5 149.4 130.9percent change (%) -12.8 63.3 -15.6 -10.5 0.6 -12.3

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 176.4 88.6 234.7 141.4 193.3 190.5percent change (%) 109.7 -49.8 164.9 -39.8 36.8 -1.5

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 80.9 177.7 119.5 118.6 120.9 111.4percent change (%) -31.3 119.7 -32.7 -0.8 1.9 -7.8

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 151.2 253.5 201.3 187.3 170.5 136.2percent change (%) -15.8 67.7 -20.6 -6.9 -9.0 -20.1

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 208.4 213.4 219.2 223.6 226.3 229.2change from previous year 3.1 4.9 5.8 4.4 2.7 2.9percent change (%) 1.5 2.4 2.7 2.0 1.2 1.3

Households 83.3 85.4 88.0 90.1 91.2 92.1change from previous year 1.5 2.1 2.6 2.1 1.1 1.0percent change (%) 1.8 2.6 3.0 2.3 1.2 1.0

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

14 Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida

Long-term forecast for Alachua County (continued)2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 128.0 130.6 133.1 135.4 137.7 139.8change from previous year 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1percent change (%) 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6

Unemployment rate (%) 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 6,706 7,097 7,524 7,960 8,409 8,896change from previous year (millions of dollars) 406 392 427 436 450 487percent change (%) 6.4 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.8

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 5,816 6,028 6,262 6,489 6,717 6,960change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 236 212 234 228 227 244percent change (%) 4.2 3.6 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.6

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 25,000 25,514 26,119 26,696 27,271 27,906change from previous year (97 dollars) 655 514 605 577 575 635percent change (%) 2.7 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.3

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 3,082 3,259 3,439 3,617 3,797 3,993change from previous year (millions of dollars) 200 177 180 179 179 197percent change (%) 6.9 5.8 5.5 5.2 5.0 5.2

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 2,894 3,017 3,141 3,260 3,375 3,501change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 148 123 124 119 115 126percent change (%) 5.4 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.7

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6Single-family 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9Multifamily 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Total housing stock 101.3 103.0 104.5 106.0 107.5 109.0Single-family and multifamily 90.5 92.1 93.5 94.9 96.3 97.8Mobile homes 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.2

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 137.6 144.6 148.2 153.6 160.0 167.1percent change (%) 5.1 5.1 2.5 3.7 4.2 4.4

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 195.4 200.9 204.3 210.1 216.1 221.9percent change (%) 2.6 2.8 1.7 2.8 2.9 2.7

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 115.2 120.8 125.0 130.6 137.6 145.4percent change (%) 3.4 4.9 3.4 4.5 5.3 5.7

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 147.1 156.1 159.0 164.0 169.9 176.5percent change (%) 8.0 6.1 1.9 3.2 3.6 3.9

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 232.6 236.3 239.7 243.1 246.3 249.4change from previous year 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1percent change (%) 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3

Households 93.6 94.7 96.2 97.7 98.8 100.4change from previous year 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.5percent change (%) 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.6

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties 15

Long-term forecast for Alachua County (continued)2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 142.0 143.8 145.1 146.3 147.7 148.9change from previous year 2.2 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2percent change (%) 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8

Unemployment rate (%) 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 9,418 10,033 10,607 11,212 11,869 12,574change from previous year (millions of dollars) 522 615 573 605 657 705percent change (%) 5.9 6.5 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.9

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 7,214 7,510 7,749 7,990 8,239 8,492change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 253 296 239 242 248 254percent change (%) 3.6 4.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 28,567 29,400 30,042 30,706 31,384 32,081change from previous year (97 dollars) 661 833 642 664 678 697percent change (%) 2.4 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 4,208 4,452 4,670 4,911 5,171 5,446change from previous year (millions of dollars) 214 244 218 241 260 275percent change (%) 5.4 5.8 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.3

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 3,634 3,782 3,901 4,028 4,157 4,287change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 134 148 119 127 129 130percent change (%) 3.8 4.1 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.1

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5Single-family 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9Multifamily 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6

Total housing stock 110.4 112.0 113.5 115.0 116.6 118.1Single-family and multifamily 99.2 100.7 102.1 103.6 105.1 106.6Mobile homes 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.5

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 176.7 187.0 190.1 192.6 198.1 206.2percent change (%) 5.8 5.8 1.7 1.3 2.9 4.1

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 228.6 236.5 244.4 249.4 255.6 263.2percent change (%) 3.0 3.4 3.4 2.0 2.5 2.9

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 155.1 165.8 172.8 177.8 184.2 192.5percent change (%) 6.7 6.9 4.2 2.9 3.6 4.5

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 187.0 197.5 194.4 193.0 197.1 205.2percent change (%) 6.0 5.6 -1.6 -0.7 2.1 4.1

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 252.5 255.4 257.9 260.2 262.5 264.7change from previous year 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2percent change (%) 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8

Households 102.0 103.6 105.1 106.1 107.5 109.0change from previous year 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.5percent change (%) 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.4

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

16 Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida

Long-term forecast for Baker County1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 5.3 5.3 5.6 5.3 5.8 5.9change from previous year 0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.3 0.4 0.1percent change (%) 3.0 1.0 4.7 -4.6 8.2 1.6

Unemployment rate (%) 3.8 3.3 2.9 4.5 5.0 5.7

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 381 395 425 430 470 497change from previous year (millions of dollars) 22 14 31 4 40 27percent change (%) 6.1 3.6 7.7 1.0 9.3 5.8

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 369 377 397 393 424 440change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 17 8 20 -4 31 16percent change (%) 4.8 2.2 5.3 -1.1 7.9 3.8

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 17,697 17,546 17,790 17,353 18,431 18,787change from previous year (97 dollars) 750 -151 244 -437 1,078 356percent change (%) 4.4 -0.9 1.4 -2.5 6.2 1.9

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 91 100 104 110 114 116change from previous year (millions of dollars) 1 8 5 6 4 2percent change (%) 1.6 9.2 4.8 5.3 3.3 1.8

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 91 99 101 106 110 110change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 2 8 3 4 4 0percent change (%) 2.2 8.3 2.6 4.3 4.1 0.3

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Single-family 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Multifamily 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total housing stock 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.9 8.0Single-family and multifamily 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3Mobile homes 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 48.6 128.7 176.0 312.6 187.7 147.2percent change (%) 11.9 164.8 36.7 77.6 -40.0 -21.6

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 5.2 152.8 44.6 115.3 106.9 109.1percent change (%) -70.0 2,831.2 -70.8 158.7 -7.3 2.0

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 37.6 120.4 346.8 717.9 245.3 192.6percent change (%) 165.0 220.4 188.1 107.0 -65.8 -21.5

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 95.2 112.8 176.2 210.2 220.5 150.0percent change (%) 9.4 18.5 56.2 19.3 4.9 -31.9

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 20.9 21.5 22.3 22.6 23.0 23.4change from previous year 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.4percent change (%) 0.3 3.0 3.9 1.4 1.6 1.9

Households 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4change from previous year 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1percent change (%) 2.7 3.1 3.7 1.8 1.4 1.8

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties 17

Long-term forecast for Baker County (continued)2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.3change from previous year 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1percent change (%) 2.0 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1

Unemployment rate (%) 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.5

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 526 552 580 610 643 678change from previous year (millions of dollars) 29 27 28 30 33 36percent change (%) 5.8 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.5

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 456 469 483 497 513 531change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 16 13 14 14 16 17percent change (%) 3.6 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 19,123 19,357 19,629 19,932 20,307 20,728change from previous year (97 dollars) 336 234 272 303 375 421percent change (%) 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.1

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 122 126 129 133 139 144change from previous year (millions of dollars) 6 4 3 4 5 6percent change (%) 5.4 3.4 2.7 3.1 3.8 4.1

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 114 117 118 120 123 126change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 4 2 2 2 3 3percent change (%) 3.8 1.9 1.4 1.7 2.4 2.7

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Single-family 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Multifamily 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total housing stock 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.8Single-family and multifamily 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8Mobile homes 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 131.3 111.3 112.3 112.1 113.2 114.3percent change (%) -10.8 -15.2 0.9 -0.2 1.0 1.0

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 111.1 113.1 114.9 116.7 118.3 120.0percent change (%) 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 137.5 79.5 82.4 84.6 87.2 90.3percent change (%) -28.6 -42.2 3.7 2.6 3.1 3.6

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 145.0 131.7 130.7 127.1 126.6 125.8percent change (%) -3.3 -9.2 -0.8 -2.8 -0.4 -0.6

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 23.8 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.3 25.6change from previous year 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3percent change (%) 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3

Households 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.2change from previous year 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1percent change (%) 2.0 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.7

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

18 Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida

Long-term forecast for Baker County (continued)2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7change from previous year 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0percent change (%) 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7

Unemployment rate (%) 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 717 760 804 851 902 957change from previous year (millions of dollars) 39 43 44 47 52 55percent change (%) 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 6.1 6.1

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 549 569 587 606 626 647change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 19 20 19 19 20 20percent change (%) 3.5 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 21,199 21,704 22,184 22,678 23,211 23,768change from previous year (97 dollars) 471 505 480 494 533 557percent change (%) 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 152 159 164 170 178 186change from previous year (millions of dollars) 7 7 5 6 8 8percent change (%) 5.1 4.9 3.0 3.7 4.7 4.6

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 131 135 137 139 143 146change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 4 4 2 2 4 3percent change (%) 3.5 3.2 1.3 1.8 2.6 2.4

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Single-family 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Multifamily 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total housing stock 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.6Single-family and multifamily 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4Mobile homes 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 116.2 118.8 120.0 120.1 119.8 119.7percent change (%) 1.7 2.2 1.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 121.6 123.1 124.4 125.7 126.9 128.1percent change (%) 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 93.1 96.4 99.5 102.4 105.2 107.7percent change (%) 3.1 3.6 3.3 2.9 2.7 2.4

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 127.5 130.4 130.3 127.2 123.5 120.5percent change (%) 1.3 2.3 -0.1 -2.3 -3.0 -2.4

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.2change from previous year 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2percent change (%) 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8

Households 8.3 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 9.0change from previous year 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1percent change (%) 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.5

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties 19

Long-term forecast for Bay County1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 62.2 62.8 63.0 63.8 64.4 66.0change from previous year 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.8 0.7 1.5percent change (%) 1.9 0.9 0.4 1.2 1.0 2.4

Unemployment rate (%) 6.6 6.1 5.8 6.0 6.8 6.8

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 3,274 3,345 3,483 3,708 3,897 4,153change from previous year (millions of dollars) 149 70 138 226 189 256percent change (%) 4.8 2.1 4.1 6.5 5.1 6.6

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 3,173 3,196 3,254 3,391 3,518 3,679change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 107 23 58 138 127 160percent change (%) 3.5 0.7 1.8 4.2 3.8 4.6

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 21,936 21,737 21,875 22,495 23,072 23,837change from previous year (97 dollars) 321 -199 138 620 577 765percent change (%) 1.5 -0.9 0.6 2.8 2.6 3.3

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 2,021 2,164 2,231 2,267 2,288 2,398change from previous year (millions of dollars) 176 143 67 35 22 110percent change (%) 9.5 7.1 3.1 1.6 1.0 4.8

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 2,018 2,143 2,162 2,175 2,214 2,285change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 186 125 19 13 39 72percent change (%) 10.1 6.2 0.9 0.6 1.8 3.2

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.9 1.3Single-family 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.1Multifamily 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2

Total housing stock 76.3 77.5 78.8 79.9 81.0 82.1Single-family and multifamily 62.8 64.2 65.6 66.5 67.4 68.3Mobile homes 13.6 13.3 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.8

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 96.5 135.8 130.4 134.2 152.7 121.2percent change (%) -4.9 40.7 -4.0 2.9 13.8 -20.6

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 221.5 413.1 273.1 467.9 286.2 264.6percent change (%) -18.7 86.5 -33.9 71.4 -38.8 -7.6

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 81.8 139.9 125.4 110.7 112.3 102.6percent change (%) 23.3 70.9 -10.4 -11.7 1.4 -8.6

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 83.4 87.1 109.1 90.6 151.7 107.0percent change (%) -8.9 4.5 25.2 -16.9 67.4 -29.5

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 144.6 147.0 148.7 150.8 152.5 154.3change from previous year 2.8 2.4 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.8percent change (%) 2.0 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.2

Households 57.6 58.8 59.8 60.9 61.9 62.7change from previous year 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8percent change (%) 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.3

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

20 Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida

Long-term forecast for Bay County (continued)2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 67.8 69.4 70.7 72.0 73.3 74.7change from previous year 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4percent change (%) 2.8 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9

Unemployment rate (%) 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.3

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 4,427 4,681 4,948 5,223 5,516 5,839change from previous year (millions of dollars) 273 254 267 275 293 323percent change (%) 6.6 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.9

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 3,839 3,975 4,118 4,258 4,406 4,568change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 161 136 142 140 148 163percent change (%) 4.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.7

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 24,569 25,125 25,712 26,276 26,870 27,537change from previous year (97 dollars) 732 556 587 564 594 667percent change (%) 3.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.5

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 2,531 2,659 2,786 2,916 3,057 3,214change from previous year (millions of dollars) 132 128 127 130 142 157percent change (%) 5.5 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.9 5.1

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 2,376 2,461 2,544 2,627 2,718 2,818change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 91 84 84 83 90 100percent change (%) 4.0 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.7

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1Single-family 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9Multifamily 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Total housing stock 83.2 84.3 85.5 86.6 87.7 88.9Single-family and multifamily 69.2 70.1 71.0 72.0 72.9 73.8Mobile homes 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.1

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 112.5 110.9 109.3 111.4 115.5 121.1percent change (%) -7.2 -1.4 -1.5 1.9 3.7 4.8

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 254.1 249.4 245.2 244.9 246.6 249.2percent change (%) -4.0 -1.9 -1.7 -0.1 0.7 1.1

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 100.1 101.2 102.7 106.6 112.3 119.0percent change (%) -2.4 1.0 1.5 3.8 5.3 6.0

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 95.3 92.8 90.0 91.5 95.3 100.7percent change (%) -10.9 -2.6 -3.1 1.7 4.1 5.7

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 156.3 158.2 160.1 162.1 164.0 165.9change from previous year 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9percent change (%) 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

Households 63.7 64.5 65.5 66.5 67.3 68.5change from previous year 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.2percent change (%) 1.7 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.7

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties 21

Long-term forecast for Bay County (continued)2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 76.2 77.5 78.6 79.8 81.1 82.3change from previous year 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3percent change (%) 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6

Unemployment rate (%) 6.1 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 6,191 6,607 7,009 7,442 7,916 8,430change from previous year (millions of dollars) 352 416 403 432 474 514percent change (%) 6.0 6.7 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.5

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 4,741 4,945 5,121 5,304 5,495 5,693change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 173 204 176 183 191 199percent change (%) 3.8 4.3 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 28,246 29,116 29,813 30,535 31,279 32,047change from previous year (97 dollars) 709 870 697 722 744 768percent change (%) 2.6 3.1 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 3,396 3,593 3,785 3,992 4,219 4,458change from previous year (millions of dollars) 182 197 192 207 227 239percent change (%) 5.6 5.8 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.7

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 2,933 3,052 3,162 3,275 3,392 3,509change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 115 119 110 113 117 118percent change (%) 4.1 4.1 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2Single-family 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9Multifamily 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3

Total housing stock 90.1 91.4 92.7 93.9 95.1 96.4Single-family and multifamily 74.7 75.7 76.8 77.8 78.8 79.8Mobile homes 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.7

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 129.6 138.9 142.3 145.7 151.8 160.6percent change (%) 7.0 7.2 2.4 2.4 4.2 5.8

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 253.7 259.8 265.5 270.2 276.7 284.8percent change (%) 1.8 2.4 2.2 1.8 2.4 2.9

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 127.5 137.2 145.7 152.3 159.8 168.6percent change (%) 7.1 7.6 6.2 4.6 4.9 5.5

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 109.9 119.5 119.7 121.2 126.5 135.5percent change (%) 9.2 8.7 0.2 1.2 4.4 7.1

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 167.9 169.8 171.8 173.7 175.7 177.7change from previous year 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0percent change (%) 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

Households 69.7 70.8 71.9 72.8 74.0 75.2change from previous year 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.2percent change (%) 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.7

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

22 Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida

Long-term forecast for Bradford County1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 6.4 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7change from previous year -0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1percent change (%) -3.7 3.0 -0.4 0.7 0.3 1.2

Unemployment rate (%) 4.4 3.3 2.6 3.2 4.1 4.0

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 436 443 459 480 501 530change from previous year (millions of dollars) 31 7 16 21 21 29percent change (%) 7.7 1.5 3.7 4.5 4.4 5.9

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 422 423 429 439 452 470change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 26 1 6 10 14 17percent change (%) 6.4 0.1 1.4 2.3 3.1 3.9

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 16,555 16,422 16,442 16,765 17,039 17,452change from previous year (97 dollars) 910 -133 20 323 274 413percent change (%) 5.8 -0.8 0.1 2.0 1.6 2.4

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 160 159 163 164 165 176change from previous year (millions of dollars) 16 -1 3 1 2 11percent change (%) 10.9 -0.7 2.2 0.7 0.9 6.6

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 160 158 158 157 160 168change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 17 -2 -0 -0 3 8percent change (%) 11.5 -1.5 0.0 -0.3 1.8 5.0

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Single-family 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Multifamily 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total housing stock 9.2 9.4 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0Single-family and multifamily 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5Mobile homes 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 167.0 47.6 84.0 34.0 81.2 97.8percent change (%) 74.2 -71.5 76.6 -59.5 138.4 20.5

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 1,355.4 58.3 82.7 24.4 171.1 227.8percent change (%) 455.5 -95.7 41.9 -70.6 602.3 33.1

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 50.5 41.5 210.7 8.3 127.3 174.7percent change (%) -71.3 -17.9 407.8 -96.1 1,430.3 37.3

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 43.6 48.0 44.4 43.4 54.6 56.1percent change (%) -14.2 10.2 -7.6 -2.2 25.7 2.8

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 25.5 25.8 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.9change from previous year 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4percent change (%) 0.6 1.0 1.3 0.3 1.4 1.4

Households 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.8 8.9change from previous year 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1percent change (%) 0.9 2.1 1.3 2.6 1.2 1.0

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties 23

Long-term forecast for Bradford County (continued)2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.2change from previous year 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1percent change (%) 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

Unemployment rate (%) 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 561 589 619 651 685 722change from previous year (millions of dollars) 30 28 30 32 34 38percent change (%) 5.7 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.5

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 486 500 515 531 547 565change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 16 14 15 15 16 18percent change (%) 3.5 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 17,815 18,102 18,471 18,844 19,250 19,711change from previous year (97 dollars) 363 287 369 373 406 461percent change (%) 2.1 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.4

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 188 198 207 216 225 235change from previous year (millions of dollars) 12 10 9 9 9 10percent change (%) 6.8 5.2 4.6 4.2 4.2 4.5

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 177 183 189 194 200 206change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 9 7 6 5 5 6percent change (%) 5.2 3.7 3.2 2.8 2.8 3.1

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Single-family 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Multifamily 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total housing stock 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.9Single-family and multifamily 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.9Mobile homes 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 106.3 112.9 118.9 124.0 128.8 133.1percent change (%) 8.7 6.2 5.3 4.3 3.9 3.3

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 269.3 307.4 337.1 360.1 377.9 391.8percent change (%) 18.3 14.2 9.7 6.8 4.9 3.7

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 178.5 181.9 186.1 190.8 196.6 203.1percent change (%) 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.5 3.0 3.3

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 61.6 65.0 68.5 71.3 74.0 76.2percent change (%) 9.8 5.5 5.3 4.1 3.8 3.0

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.7change from previous year 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3percent change (%) 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

Households 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.6change from previous year 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1percent change (%) 1.3 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.5

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

24 Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida

Long-term forecast for Bradford County (continued)2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.7change from previous year 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1percent change (%) 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2

Unemployment rate (%) 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 763 810 858 909 965 1,026change from previous year (millions of dollars) 41 47 48 51 56 61percent change (%) 5.7 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.3

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 585 606 627 648 670 693change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 19 22 21 21 22 23percent change (%) 3.4 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 20,207 20,767 21,289 21,816 22,361 22,930change from previous year (97 dollars) 496 560 522 527 545 569percent change (%) 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 247 259 272 287 304 322change from previous year (millions of dollars) 12 13 13 15 17 18percent change (%) 5.0 5.1 4.9 5.6 5.8 5.9

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 213 220 227 236 244 253change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 7 7 7 8 9 9percent change (%) 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.7 3.7 3.7

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Single-family 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Multifamily 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total housing stock 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.8Single-family and multifamily 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3Mobile homes 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 137.9 141.8 143.4 145.4 147.1 149.6percent change (%) 3.6 2.9 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.7

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 403.3 412.2 422.8 436.2 449.1 463.1percent change (%) 2.9 2.2 2.6 3.2 3.0 3.1

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 209.8 216.9 223.7 230.3 236.4 242.2percent change (%) 3.3 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.4

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 79.5 81.9 80.6 79.7 78.5 78.4percent change (%) 4.3 3.0 -1.6 -1.1 -1.5 -0.1

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.2change from previous year 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3percent change (%) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

Households 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.5change from previous year 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2percent change (%) 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.5

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties 25

Long-term forecast for Brevard County1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 180.2 182.7 191.5 194.0 194.5 195.9change from previous year 3.6 2.4 8.8 2.5 0.5 1.4percent change (%) 2.0 1.3 4.8 1.3 0.2 0.7

Unemployment rate (%) 4.3 3.9 3.4 4.3 5.4 5.6

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 11,116 11,374 12,261 12,799 13,278 14,005change from previous year (millions of dollars) 536 257 887 537 479 727percent change (%) 5.1 2.3 7.8 4.4 3.7 5.5

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 10,771 10,868 11,455 11,704 11,986 12,404change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 393 97 587 249 282 418percent change (%) 3.8 0.9 5.4 2.2 2.4 3.5

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 23,333 23,143 23,942 24,038 24,260 24,768change from previous year (97 dollars) 508 -190 799 96 222 508percent change (%) 2.2 -0.8 3.5 0.4 0.9 2.1

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 4,518 4,869 5,230 5,502 5,577 5,741change from previous year (millions of dollars) 300 351 361 271 76 163percent change (%) 7.1 7.8 7.4 5.2 1.4 2.9

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 4,510 4,821 5,068 5,279 5,395 5,470change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 323 311 246 211 117 75percent change (%) 7.7 6.9 5.1 4.2 2.2 1.4

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 3.7 4.3 4.4 4.7 5.4 3.7Single-family 3.3 3.3 3.5 4.0 4.8 3.3Multifamily 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.3

Total housing stock 214.8 218.9 223.1 226.7 230.4 234.2Single-family and multifamily 189.8 193.7 197.8 201.5 205.3 209.0Mobile homes 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.2

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 83.9 102.5 119.5 121.0 120.5 90.4percent change (%) -0.8 22.3 16.5 1.2 -0.4 -25.0

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 82.0 85.7 124.9 302.2 137.1 127.8percent change (%) -18.6 4.5 45.8 141.9 -54.6 -6.8

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 86.8 86.0 120.7 60.6 101.5 92.6percent change (%) 14.3 -1.0 40.4 -49.8 67.6 -8.8

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 83.0 111.7 118.1 113.8 125.0 83.3percent change (%) -2.5 34.6 5.7 -3.6 9.8 -33.4

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 461.6 469.6 478.5 486.9 494.1 500.8change from previous year 6.9 8.0 8.9 8.4 7.2 6.7percent change (%) 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.4

Households 190.9 194.9 199.1 203.1 207.1 209.8change from previous year 3.3 3.9 4.2 4.0 4.0 2.8percent change (%) 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.3

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

26 Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida

Long-term forecast for Brevard County (continued)2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 199.2 202.1 204.9 207.7 210.8 213.8change from previous year 3.4 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0percent change (%) 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4

Unemployment rate (%) 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.6

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 14,926 15,762 16,634 17,534 18,501 19,547change from previous year (millions of dollars) 920 837 872 900 967 1,046percent change (%) 6.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.7

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 12,946 13,387 13,844 14,296 14,777 15,293change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 541 442 456 452 482 516percent change (%) 4.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.5

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 25,420 25,788 26,170 26,541 27,023 27,578change from previous year (97 dollars) 652 368 382 371 482 555percent change (%) 2.6 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.8 2.1

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 6,035 6,271 6,495 6,704 6,969 7,281change from previous year (millions of dollars) 295 235 224 209 265 312percent change (%) 5.1 3.9 3.6 3.2 3.9 4.5

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 5,667 5,804 5,932 6,041 6,195 6,383change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 196 137 128 110 153 188percent change (%) 3.6 2.4 2.2 1.8 2.5 3.0

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 3.9 4.4 4.7 4.2 4.3 4.4Single-family 3.4 3.9 4.2 3.8 3.8 3.9Multifamily 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Total housing stock 238.0 241.8 246.3 250.9 255.4 259.9Single-family and multifamily 212.7 216.5 220.9 225.3 229.7 234.1Mobile homes 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.8

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 94.1 104.5 111.5 105.0 108.2 114.5percent change (%) 4.1 11.0 6.8 -5.9 3.1 5.8

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 130.1 134.7 137.7 137.2 140.0 143.6percent change (%) 1.8 3.5 2.3 -0.4 2.0 2.6

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 94.5 101.7 108.0 107.6 112.0 119.2percent change (%) 2.0 7.5 6.2 -0.4 4.1 6.4

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 88.0 100.5 108.5 98.5 101.5 107.8percent change (%) 5.6 14.2 8.0 -9.2 3.0 6.3

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 509.3 519.1 529.0 538.6 546.8 554.6change from previous year 8.4 9.9 9.9 9.6 8.2 7.7percent change (%) 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.4

Households 214.1 218.0 222.8 227.8 231.4 236.0change from previous year 4.3 3.9 4.8 4.9 3.7 4.5percent change (%) 2.0 1.8 2.2 2.2 1.6 2.0

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties 27

Long-term forecast for Brevard County (continued)2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 217.1 220.1 222.4 224.7 227.4 230.0change from previous year 3.3 3.0 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.6percent change (%) 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1

Unemployment rate (%) 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 20,682 22,011 23,368 24,751 26,264 27,907change from previous year (millions of dollars) 1,135 1,330 1,357 1,383 1,513 1,642percent change (%) 5.8 6.4 6.2 5.9 6.1 6.3

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 15,840 16,476 17,072 17,639 18,231 18,847change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 547 635 596 568 591 617percent change (%) 3.6 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.4

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 28,171 28,896 29,555 30,171 30,802 31,441change from previous year (97 dollars) 593 725 659 616 631 639percent change (%) 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 7,647 8,034 8,438 8,889 9,393 9,939change from previous year (millions of dollars) 366 388 403 451 504 545percent change (%) 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.8

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 6,605 6,826 7,049 7,292 7,552 7,824change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 222 221 223 243 260 272percent change (%) 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.6

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.4Single-family 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6Multifamily 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8

Total housing stock 264.4 269.2 274.0 278.8 283.5 288.3Single-family and multifamily 238.5 243.2 247.9 252.6 257.3 262.0Mobile homes 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.3

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 122.6 128.3 130.8 130.3 132.4 137.0percent change (%) 7.0 4.6 2.0 -0.3 1.6 3.5

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 147.9 151.9 155.8 157.5 160.2 164.0percent change (%) 3.0 2.7 2.6 1.1 1.7 2.3

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 128.1 136.6 143.8 147.7 152.5 159.0percent change (%) 7.5 6.6 5.3 2.7 3.2 4.3

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 116.2 121.1 121.6 119.1 120.1 124.1percent change (%) 7.7 4.2 0.4 -2.0 0.8 3.3

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 562.3 570.2 577.6 584.6 591.9 599.4change from previous year 7.8 7.9 7.5 7.0 7.2 7.6percent change (%) 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3

Households 240.7 245.7 250.7 254.7 259.8 265.3change from previous year 4.8 5.0 5.0 3.9 5.1 5.5percent change (%) 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.6 2.0 2.1

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

28 Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida

Long-term forecast for Broward County1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 639.5 652.7 680.6 701.9 714.5 728.9change from previous year 13.2 13.2 27.9 21.3 12.6 14.4percent change (%) 2.1 2.1 4.3 3.1 1.8 2.0

Unemployment rate (%) 4.5 4.1 3.7 4.9 6.1 5.9

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 43,721 44,556 47,997 50,356 52,613 55,875change from previous year (millions of dollars) 3,047 835 3,441 2,358 2,257 3,262percent change (%) 7.5 1.9 7.7 4.9 4.5 6.2

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 42,364 42,575 44,842 46,049 47,496 49,487change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 2,467 211 2,267 1,207 1,446 1,992percent change (%) 6.2 0.5 5.3 2.7 3.1 4.2

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 27,303 26,772 27,515 27,780 28,149 28,777change from previous year (97 dollars) 975 -531 743 265 369 628percent change (%) 3.7 -1.9 2.8 1.0 1.3 2.2

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 20,787 22,487 24,440 24,879 25,154 26,347change from previous year (millions of dollars) 1,171 1,700 1,953 439 275 1,193percent change (%) 6.0 8.2 8.7 1.8 1.1 4.7

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 20,753 22,267 23,679 23,871 24,333 25,105change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 1,278 1,514 1,412 192 462 772percent change (%) 6.6 7.3 6.3 0.8 1.9 3.2

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 11.7 11.5 11.6 10.7 10.4 11.4Single-family 8.7 8.4 9.3 8.2 7.3 8.3Multifamily 3.0 3.1 2.3 2.5 3.1 3.1

Total housing stock 716.3 734.4 743.2 755.0 767.5 779.9Single-family and multifamily 687.1 705.9 715.5 728.2 741.0 753.7Mobile homes 29.2 28.5 27.7 26.7 26.5 26.2

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 117.0 107.3 101.8 95.3 90.6 97.1percent change (%) 29.0 -8.2 -5.1 -6.4 -4.8 7.2

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 66.7 56.3 50.5 45.4 47.8 54.6percent change (%) -7.5 -15.5 -10.4 -10.0 5.2 14.2

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 145.4 138.8 144.7 123.6 117.0 118.9percent change (%) 64.7 -4.5 4.2 -14.6 -5.3 1.6

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 117.5 106.3 93.9 95.7 89.8 99.1percent change (%) 19.1 -9.5 -11.6 1.9 -6.2 10.3

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 1,551.6 1,590.3 1,629.7 1,657.6 1,687.3 1,719.7change from previous year 36.3 38.6 39.5 27.9 29.7 32.4percent change (%) 2.4 2.5 2.5 1.7 1.8 1.9

Households 631.0 643.9 657.2 668.3 683.4 695.6change from previous year 12.1 13.0 13.2 11.2 15.1 12.2percent change (%) 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.7 2.3 1.8

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties 29

Long-term forecast for Broward County (continued)2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 745.0 760.9 775.1 786.9 799.2 812.8change from previous year 16.1 15.9 14.3 11.8 12.3 13.6percent change (%) 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.7

Unemployment rate (%) 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.0 4.8

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 59,672 63,112 66,950 70,716 74,745 79,373change from previous year (millions of dollars) 3,798 3,439 3,838 3,766 4,030 4,627percent change (%) 6.8 5.8 6.1 5.6 5.7 6.2

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 51,756 53,602 55,719 57,654 59,701 62,100change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 2,269 1,846 2,116 1,935 2,047 2,399percent change (%) 4.6 3.6 3.9 3.5 3.6 4.0

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 29,470 29,887 30,460 30,953 31,519 32,261change from previous year (97 dollars) 693 417 573 493 566 742percent change (%) 2.4 1.4 1.9 1.6 1.8 2.4

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 27,989 29,300 30,633 31,867 33,166 34,752change from previous year (millions of dollars) 1,642 1,311 1,332 1,234 1,299 1,587percent change (%) 6.2 4.7 4.5 4.0 4.1 4.8

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 26,279 27,119 27,979 28,718 29,482 30,467change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 1,174 840 859 739 764 984percent change (%) 4.7 3.2 3.2 2.6 2.7 3.3

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 13.8 15.2 15.2 15.4 15.7 16.0Single-family 9.6 10.5 10.7 10.7 10.9 11.0Multifamily 4.2 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.1

Total housing stock 792.4 804.9 820.9 837.0 853.1 869.1Single-family and multifamily 766.4 779.1 795.4 811.7 828.0 844.3Mobile homes 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.3 25.0 24.8

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 111.2 120.5 123.6 128.1 134.3 140.9percent change (%) 14.5 8.3 2.6 3.6 4.8 4.9

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 62.0 67.4 70.8 74.5 78.2 81.6percent change (%) 13.5 8.8 5.0 5.2 4.9 4.3

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 124.8 130.5 135.0 141.1 148.9 157.4percent change (%) 5.0 4.6 3.4 4.6 5.5 5.7

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 120.6 133.3 135.5 139.3 145.4 152.1percent change (%) 21.7 10.6 1.6 2.8 4.4 4.6

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 1,756.2 1,793.5 1,829.2 1,862.6 1,894.1 1,925.0change from previous year 36.5 37.3 35.8 33.4 31.5 30.8percent change (%) 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6

Households 711.9 725.3 741.7 757.7 770.6 786.9change from previous year 16.3 13.4 16.5 16.0 12.9 16.3percent change (%) 2.3 1.9 2.3 2.2 1.7 2.1

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

30 Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida

Long-term forecast for Broward County (continued)2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 829.2 844.1 851.3 861.7 874.3 885.1change from previous year 16.5 14.9 7.2 10.4 12.5 10.9percent change (%) 2.0 1.8 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.2

Unemployment rate (%) 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.6

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 84,601 91,197 97,194 103,698 110,902 118,637change from previous year (millions of dollars) 5,228 6,596 5,997 6,503 7,204 7,735percent change (%) 6.6 7.8 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.0

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 64,798 68,262 71,006 73,903 76,979 80,123change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 2,697 3,464 2,745 2,896 3,077 3,144percent change (%) 4.3 5.3 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.1

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 33,115 34,314 35,163 36,092 37,080 38,071change from previous year (97 dollars) 854 1,199 849 929 988 991percent change (%) 2.6 3.6 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 36,666 39,059 40,923 43,174 45,720 48,421change from previous year (millions of dollars) 1,914 2,393 1,864 2,251 2,546 2,702percent change (%) 5.5 6.5 4.8 5.5 5.9 5.9

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 31,671 33,184 34,188 35,417 36,757 38,119change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 1,204 1,513 1,004 1,229 1,340 1,362percent change (%) 4.0 4.8 3.0 3.6 3.8 3.7

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 17.1 17.7 15.5 14.4 14.1 14.2Single-family 11.5 11.8 10.2 9.1 8.6 8.6Multifamily 5.7 5.9 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.6

Total housing stock 885.2 900.7 916.3 931.8 947.4 962.9Single-family and multifamily 860.6 876.4 892.1 907.9 923.7 939.5Mobile homes 24.6 24.3 24.1 23.9 23.7 23.4

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 152.6 163.1 158.3 157.5 161.5 168.1percent change (%) 8.3 6.9 -2.9 -0.5 2.6 4.0

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 85.9 90.2 91.9 93.2 95.5 98.4percent change (%) 5.3 5.0 1.9 1.5 2.5 3.0

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 167.9 179.7 190.3 198.5 207.1 216.5percent change (%) 6.7 7.1 5.9 4.3 4.4 4.5

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 167.1 179.0 162.5 155.4 157.3 163.4percent change (%) 9.9 7.2 -9.2 -4.4 1.2 3.9

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 1,956.8 1,989.3 2,019.4 2,047.6 2,076.1 2,104.6change from previous year 31.8 32.5 30.1 28.2 28.5 28.5percent change (%) 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4

Households 804.3 821.5 838.3 851.3 868.0 885.2change from previous year 17.4 17.2 16.8 13.0 16.7 17.2percent change (%) 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.6 2.0 2.0

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties 31

Long-term forecast for Calhoun County1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.4change from previous year 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0percent change (%) 7.4 2.4 -2.1 -4.5 0.5 1.0

Unemployment rate (%) 5.5 6.6 5.1 5.1 6.3 6.1

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 186 203 204 207 222 238change from previous year (millions of dollars) 3 18 1 3 15 16percent change (%) 1.5 9.4 0.4 1.6 7.0 7.3

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 180 194 190 189 200 211change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 0 14 -4 -1 11 11percent change (%) 0.2 7.9 -1.9 -0.5 5.6 5.3

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 14,240 15,105 14,618 14,449 14,972 15,639change from previous year (97 dollars) -74 865 -487 -169 523 667percent change (%) -0.5 6.1 -3.2 -1.2 3.6 4.5

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 57 55 52 50 50 53change from previous year (millions of dollars) 2 -2 -3 -2 0 3percent change (%) 2.9 -3.5 -5.3 -4.4 0.3 6.0

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 57 55 51 48 48 51change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 2 -2 -4 -3 1 2percent change (%) 3.5 -4.2 -7.4 -5.3 1.1 4.4

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Single-family 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Multifamily 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total housing stock 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.5Single-family and multifamily 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3Mobile homes 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 20.7 23.9 68.1 83.9 92.2 96.6percent change (%) -60.2 15.3 185.2 23.3 9.9 4.7

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 2.7 11.2 93.5 249.4 217.3 188.1percent change (%) -97.8 322.2 732.3 166.7 -12.9 -13.4

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 3.1 10.3 79.5 6.3 42.9 48.6percent change (%) -68.3 229.2 668.7 -92.1 586.4 13.2

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 56.9 50.8 34.4 63.3 64.4 91.7percent change (%) -1.1 -10.7 -32.2 83.9 1.8 42.4

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 12.6 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.4 13.5change from previous year 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1percent change (%) 0.7 1.7 1.4 0.6 1.9 0.8

Households 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7change from previous year 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0percent change (%) 1.8 1.0 0.8 2.5 2.0 0.4

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

32 Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida

Long-term forecast for Calhoun County (continued)2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6change from previous year 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0percent change (%) 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3

Unemployment rate (%) 5.6 5.6 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.3

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 254 271 288 305 323 342change from previous year (millions of dollars) 16 16 17 17 18 20percent change (%) 6.9 6.5 6.3 5.9 5.9 6.1

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 221 230 239 248 258 268change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 10 9 9 9 9 10percent change (%) 4.7 4.3 4.1 3.7 3.8 3.9

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 16,240 16,683 17,171 17,689 18,243 18,787change from previous year (97 dollars) 601 443 488 518 554 544percent change (%) 3.8 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.0

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 56 58 61 63 66 68change from previous year (millions of dollars) 3 2 2 2 3 3percent change (%) 5.3 4.3 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 52 54 55 57 58 60change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 2 1 1 1 2 2percent change (%) 3.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Single-family 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Multifamily 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total housing stock 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9Single-family and multifamily 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4Mobile homes 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 97.5 99.5 100.1 100.9 101.9 103.2percent change (%) 1.0 2.0 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.2

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 189.2 191.8 194.2 195.7 197.1 199.1percent change (%) 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.7 1.0

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 50.0 51.2 52.6 53.7 55.1 57.0percent change (%) 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.7 3.3

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 92.0 94.6 92.7 92.7 92.8 92.8percent change (%) 0.4 2.7 -1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.3change from previous year 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1percent change (%) 0.8 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.9

Households 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0change from previous year 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1percent change (%) 0.9 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.5 1.3

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties 33

Long-term forecast for Calhoun County (continued)2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9change from previous year 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0percent change (%) 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.0

Unemployment rate (%) 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.9

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 364 386 409 433 460 488change from previous year (millions of dollars) 21 23 23 24 27 28percent change (%) 6.2 6.2 5.8 5.9 6.2 6.2

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 279 289 299 309 319 330change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 11 11 10 10 11 11percent change (%) 4.0 3.8 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.3

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 19,353 19,937 20,449 20,960 21,491 22,025change from previous year (97 dollars) 566 584 512 511 531 534percent change (%) 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 71 74 78 81 85 88change from previous year (millions of dollars) 3 3 3 3 4 4percent change (%) 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.2 4.5 4.5

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 62 63 65 66 68 70change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 2 2 2 2 2 2percent change (%) 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.3

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Single-family 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Multifamily 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total housing stock 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.3Single-family and multifamily 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4Mobile homes 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 104.5 105.7 106.9 108.1 109.3 110.4percent change (%) 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 201.3 203.0 204.6 206.5 208.4 210.3percent change (%) 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 58.9 60.7 62.5 64.3 66.0 67.5percent change (%) 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.3

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 92.8 92.8 92.8 92.8 92.8 92.8percent change (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.0change from previous year 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1percent change (%) 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8

Households 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4change from previous year 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1percent change (%) 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.4

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

34 Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida

Long-term forecast for Charlotte County1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 34.4 36.3 38.3 39.0 40.4 41.6change from previous year 1.1 1.9 2.0 0.7 1.3 1.2percent change (%) 3.2 5.4 5.6 1.8 3.4 3.1

Unemployment rate (%) 3.5 3.1 2.7 3.4 5.1 4.7

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 3,253 3,331 3,511 3,657 3,799 4,034change from previous year (millions of dollars) 191 78 180 146 143 234percent change (%) 6.2 2.4 5.4 4.1 3.9 6.2

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 3,152 3,183 3,280 3,344 3,430 3,573change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 149 31 98 64 86 143percent change (%) 5.0 1.0 3.1 1.9 2.6 4.2

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 23,221 22,897 23,042 23,021 23,245 23,752change from previous year (97 dollars) 705 -324 145 -21 224 507percent change (%) 3.1 -1.4 0.6 -0.1 1.0 2.2

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 1,343 1,461 1,605 1,691 1,728 1,834change from previous year (millions of dollars) 72 118 144 86 38 106percent change (%) 5.7 8.8 9.8 5.4 2.2 6.1

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 1,341 1,447 1,555 1,622 1,672 1,747change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 79 106 108 67 50 75percent change (%) 6.3 7.9 7.5 4.3 3.1 4.5

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 1.4 1.3 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.5Single-family 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4Multifamily 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.2

Total housing stock 77.3 78.6 80.1 81.8 83.5 85.2Single-family and multifamily 65.5 66.6 67.9 69.6 71.2 72.9Mobile homes 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.3

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 61.7 52.8 73.6 102.0 79.1 69.9percent change (%) 5.1 -14.4 39.5 38.5 -22.4 -11.6

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 158.4 79.3 301.8 397.9 224.3 220.6percent change (%) 92.4 -49.9 280.6 31.8 -43.6 -1.6

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 45.3 66.1 52.9 58.4 65.4 64.5percent change (%) -47.9 46.0 -19.9 10.3 12.1 -1.3

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 59.0 47.0 62.4 92.2 72.1 60.1percent change (%) 21.0 -20.4 32.7 47.8 -21.8 -16.6

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 135.7 139.0 142.4 145.3 147.6 150.4change from previous year 2.4 3.3 3.4 2.9 2.3 2.9percent change (%) 1.8 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.9

Households 60.9 62.3 64.2 65.7 66.8 68.1change from previous year 1.3 1.4 1.9 1.5 1.1 1.2percent change (%) 2.2 2.3 3.0 2.3 1.7 1.8

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties 35

Long-term forecast for Charlotte County (continued)2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 43.0 44.1 45.0 46.0 47.0 48.0change from previous year 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0percent change (%) 3.3 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.1

Unemployment rate (%) 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.5

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 4,330 4,575 4,830 5,084 5,354 5,656change from previous year (millions of dollars) 296 245 256 254 271 302percent change (%) 7.3 5.7 5.6 5.2 5.3 5.6

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 3,755 3,885 4,020 4,145 4,277 4,425change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 183 130 135 125 132 149percent change (%) 5.1 3.5 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.5

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 24,464 24,795 25,188 25,557 25,983 26,498change from previous year (97 dollars) 712 331 393 369 426 515percent change (%) 3.0 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.7 2.0

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 1,971 2,059 2,148 2,247 2,361 2,486change from previous year (millions of dollars) 137 89 88 99 114 125percent change (%) 7.5 4.5 4.3 4.6 5.1 5.3

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 1,850 1,906 1,962 2,025 2,099 2,179change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 103 56 55 63 74 80percent change (%) 5.9 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.7 3.8

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2Single-family 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1Multifamily 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Total housing stock 86.9 88.6 90.2 91.7 93.3 94.8Single-family and multifamily 74.5 76.2 77.7 79.2 80.7 82.2Mobile homes 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.6

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 74.0 68.6 65.1 64.4 65.1 66.9percent change (%) 5.9 -7.3 -5.0 -1.1 1.0 2.8

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 225.1 224.6 224.2 226.5 229.9 233.8percent change (%) 2.0 -0.2 -0.2 1.0 1.5 1.7

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 67.3 67.1 67.2 68.8 71.7 75.2percent change (%) 4.2 -0.2 0.0 2.5 4.2 5.0

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 64.6 57.3 52.6 50.9 50.8 51.9percent change (%) 7.4 -11.3 -8.2 -3.1 -0.3 2.2

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 153.5 156.7 159.6 162.2 164.6 167.0change from previous year 3.1 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.4percent change (%) 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.5

Households 69.6 71.0 72.5 74.0 75.1 76.6change from previous year 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.5percent change (%) 2.3 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.6 2.0

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

36 Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida

Long-term forecast for Charlotte County (continued)2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 49.1 50.0 50.6 51.1 51.7 52.1change from previous year 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5percent change (%) 2.3 1.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.9

Unemployment rate (%) 3.1 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 5,983 6,396 6,779 7,162 7,569 8,000change from previous year (millions of dollars) 327 413 383 383 407 431percent change (%) 5.8 6.9 6.0 5.6 5.7 5.7

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 4,583 4,787 4,952 5,104 5,254 5,403change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 157 205 165 152 150 149percent change (%) 3.6 4.5 3.5 3.1 2.9 2.8

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 27,056 27,861 28,427 28,969 29,539 30,109change from previous year (97 dollars) 558 805 566 542 570 570percent change (%) 2.1 3.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.9

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 2,638 2,794 2,932 3,085 3,251 3,422change from previous year (millions of dollars) 152 156 138 153 166 171percent change (%) 6.1 5.9 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.3

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 2,279 2,374 2,449 2,531 2,614 2,694change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 100 95 75 81 83 80percent change (%) 4.6 4.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.1

Housing and real construction contracts (thousands of units, except as noted)

Total housing starts 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5Single-family 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2Multifamily 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3

Total housing stock 96.3 97.7 99.0 100.4 101.7 103.1Single-family and multifamily 83.7 85.0 86.3 87.6 89.0 90.3Mobile homes 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.8 12.8

Total construction contracts (index, 1986-88=100) 73.6 80.9 80.0 83.4 87.8 92.7percent change (%) 10.1 9.8 -1.0 4.2 5.3 5.6

Nonbuilding (index, 1986-88=100) 241.0 249.0 252.7 258.3 265.4 273.0percent change (%) 3.1 3.3 1.5 2.2 2.7 2.9

Nonresidential building (index, 1986-88=100) 81.0 87.8 92.3 96.7 101.4 106.4percent change (%) 7.7 8.4 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.9

Residential building (index, 1986-88=100) 58.9 66.2 63.5 66.5 70.5 75.2percent change (%) 13.5 12.4 -4.1 4.6 6.2 6.6

July 1 demographics (thousands, except as noted)

Permanent residents 169.4 171.8 174.2 176.2 177.9 179.4change from previous year 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.6percent change (%) 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.9

Households 78.2 79.5 80.8 81.8 82.8 83.7change from previous year 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.9percent change (%) 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.1

See data appendix for earlier years and additional detail.

Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida Florida Long-term Economic Forecast 2002: Counties 37

Long-term forecast for Citrus County1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Labor market (thousands, except as noted)

Nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 26.6 27.7 28.7 28.9 29.7 30.7change from previous year 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.8 1.0percent change (%) 3.6 4.2 3.7 0.8 2.7 3.2

Unemployment rate (%) 5.8 4.6 4.7 6.0 7.5 7.1

Personal income

Personal income (millions of dollars) 2,308 2,405 2,551 2,651 2,756 2,958change from previous year (millions of dollars) 138 97 147 100 105 203percent change (%) 6.3 4.2 6.1 3.9 3.9 7.4

Real personal income (millions of 97 dollars) 2,236 2,298 2,384 2,424 2,488 2,620change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 108 62 86 41 63 132percent change (%) 5.1 2.8 3.7 1.7 2.6 5.3

Real per capita income (97 dollars) 19,629 19,770 20,084 20,032 20,194 20,822change from previous year (97 dollars) 563 141 314 -52 162 628percent change (%) 3.0 0.7 1.6 -0.3 0.8 3.1

Sales

Taxable sales (millions of dollars) 859 918 987 1,033 1,056 1,104change from previous year (millions of dollars) 74 60 68 46 23 49percent change (%) 9.4 6.9 7.4 4.7 2.2 4.6

Real taxable sales (millions of 97 dollars) 857 909 956 991 1,021 1,052change from previous year (millions of 97 dollars) 78 52 46 35 31 31percent change (%) 10.0