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FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATERisk Management
Slobodan P. SimonovićProfessor
Civil and Environmental EngineeringThe University of Western Ontario
London, Canada
FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATEConclusions5|
• Risk management as adaptation to climate change
• Use of systems approach• Flood risk management as a social
system management problem
• Systems tools • Probabilistic approach
(Monte Carlo simulation, Evolutionary optimization, Probabilistic MO goal programming)
• Fuzzy set approach(Fuzzy rule-based simulation, Fuzzy linear programming, Fuzzy Compromise MO programming)
• An illustrative example
FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATEOutline6|
Introduction Global change Climate change Floods in a changing climate
Risk management as adaptation Systems approach An example
Calgary, Canada, June 2013
Toronto, Canada, July 2013
INTRODUCTIONGlobal change7|
Global change Population growth Alterations in climate Changes in land use Changes in oceans or other water resources Changes in ecological systems
They are all directly related to flooding
INTRODUCTIONGlobal change8|
FLOOD RISKManagement – Principle 111|
Risk of flooding Uncertainties Subjective-objective risk confusion Move from risk to resilience
Flood risk management ≡ Adaptation to global change
FLOOD RISKManagement – Principle 212|
The system in focus is a social system of: Individuals Organizations Societies and Environment.
Flows connecting the subsystems: Resource, and Information.
Information is used to determine resource use by subsystems.
Values provide meaning to information flows.
information
resources
AN EXAMPLECity of London13|
Vulnerability of Municipal Infrastructure to Climate Change-Caused Flooding Risk – City of London
Fuzzy risk measure Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability Two climate change scenarios Two regulatory floods (100-year and 250-year)
Critical municipal infrastructure Buildings Transportation Flood protection Emergency management Water
AN EXAMPLEMethodology14|
Input Climate Scenarios Weather Generator
Temperature, Precipitation
Rainfall-runoff transformationHydrologic Model
Floodplain mappingHydraulic Model
Analysis of Change in Climate VariablesTemperature, Timing, Duration, Shifts, Precipitation
Infrastructure Risk
Assessment due to
Change in Climate
Variables
Infrastructure Flood
Risk due to Climate
Change
Risk Assessment
AN EXAMPLEInfrastructure data15|
Buildings Transportation
Roadways Bridges
Critical Infrastructure Schools Hospitals and Emergency
Services
Barriers Dams, Dikes, Other flood
control infrastructure Sewer Infrastructure
Wastewater Treatment Plants Outlets Sanitary and Storm Systems
AN EXAMPLEClimate modelling16|
InputClimate Scenarios
Weather Generator
Temperature, Precipitation
Rainfall-runoff transformationHydrologic Model
Floodplain mappingHydraulic Model
Analysis of Change in Climate VariablesTemperature, Timing, Duration, Shifts, Precipitation
Infrastructure Risk
Assessment due to
Change in Climate
Variables
Infrastructure Flood
Risk due to Climate
Change
Risk Assessment
AN EXAMPLEClimate modelling24|
AN EXAMPLEDownscalling25|
AN EXAMPLEHydrologic modelling26|
InputClimate Scenarios
Weather Generator
Temperature, Precipitation
Rainfall-runoff transformationHydrologic Model
Floodplain mappingHydraulic Model
Analysis of Change in Climate VariablesTemperature, Timing, Duration, Shifts, Precipitation
Infrastructure Risk
Assessment due to
Change in Climate
Variables
Infrastructure Flood
Risk due to Climate
Change
Risk Assessment
AN EXAMPLEHydrologic modelling27|
Modification of HEC-HMS
Nesting of sub-basins
Medway (5 sub-basins)
Stoney (6 sub-basins)
Pottersburg (4 sub-basins)
Dingman (16 sub-basins)
AN EXAMPLEHydrologic modelling28|
More frequent floodingMore severe floods
Two hydrologic scenarios100-year and 250-year
AN EXAMPLEHydraulic modelling29|
InputClimate Scenarios
Weather Generator
Temperature, Precipitation
Rainfall-runoff transformationHydrologic Model
Floodplain mappingHydraulic Model
Analysis of Change in Climate VariablesTemperature, Timing, Duration, Shifts, Precipitation
Infrastructure Risk
Assessment due to
Change in Climate
Variables
Infrastructure Flood
Risk due to Climate
Change
Risk Assessment
AN EXAMPLEHydraulic modelling30|
Input: Streamflow from hydrologic model
HEC-RAS and HEC-GeoRAS
Output: floodplains to represent flood extent and depth for use in risk analysis
AN EXAMPLEHydraulic modelling31|
100 yr 250 yr
AN EXAMPLERisk assessment32|
InputClimate Scenarios
Weather Generator
Temperature, Precipitation
Rainfall-runoff transformationHydrologic Model
Floodplain mappingHydraulic Model
Analysis of Change in Climate VariablesTemperature, Timing, Duration, Shifts, Precipitation
Infrastructure Risk
Assessment due to
Change in Climate
Variables
Infrastructure Flood
Risk due to Climate
Change
Risk Assessment
AN EXAMPLERisk assessment33|
Risk Indices
Consequences-Loss of Function -Loss of Equipment-Loss of Structure
Infrastructure Flood
Risk Assessment due
to Climate Change
Risk Tables
Risk Assessment
Output
Risk Maps
Monetary Value
Probability
Risk = Probability of hazard x Σ[Monetary damage value x Consequence ]
AN EXAMPLERisk assessment34|
Floodplain
Aerial photo
Infrastructure
Identify inundated infrastructure
Stage-Damage Curves
AN EXAMPLERisk assessment36|
Probability - The likelihood that a particular flood event will occur in a given year
100yr RP 100yr RP 250yr RP 250yr RP
CC_LB CC_UB CC_LB CC_UB
AN EXAMPLERisk assessment39|
Risk Indices
Consequences-Loss of Function -Loss of Equipment-Loss of Structure
Infrastructure Flood
Risk Assessment due
to Climate Change
Risk Tables
Risk Assessment
Output
Risk Maps
Monetary Value
Probability
3
1
)(i
ikeikeke IMDPR
Rke =risk index ; P = probability; D = monetary value; IMike =impact multiplierk = infrastructure type; e = infrastructure element; i = impact category
AN EXAMPLERisk assessment40|
FUTUREFrom risk to resilience41|
FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATEConclusions42|
• Risk management as adaptation to climate change
• Use of systems approach• Flood risk management as a social
system management problem
• Systems tools • Probabilistic approach
(Monte Carlo simulation, Evolutionary optimization, Probabilistic MO goal programming)
• Fuzzy set approach(Fuzzy rule-based simulation, Fuzzy linear programming, Fuzzy Compromise MO programming)
• An illustrative example
FLOODS IN A CHANGING CLIMATEResources – www.slobodansimonovic.com43|
Standardization of climate change impact assessment process Gaur, A., and S.P. Simonovic, (2015) “Discussion towards framing a uniform climate change impact
analysis process”, Environmental Processes Jou Downscaling
King, L., A. I. McLeod and S. P. Simonovic, (2015) “Improved weather generator algorithm for multisite simulation of precipitation and temperature”, Jou of the American Water Resources Association
Srivastav, R. and S.P. Simonovic, (2014) “Multi-site, multivariate weather generator using maximum entropy bootstrap”, Climate Dynamics
Srivastav, R.K., A. Schardong and S.P. Simonovic, (2014) “Equidistance Quantile Matching Method for Updating IDF Curves Under Climate Change”, Water Resources Management: An International Jou
Mandal, S., R. K. Srivastav, and S.P. Simonovic, (2016) “Use of Beta Regression for Statistical Downscaling of Precipitation in the Campbell River Basin, British Columbia, Canada”, Jouof Hydrology, 538:49-62.
Gaur, A., and S. P. Simonovic, (2016) “Extension of Physical Scaling method and its application towards downscaling climate model based near surface air temperature”, International Jou of Climatology.
London case study Eum, H-I., D. Sredojevic, S. P. Simonovic, (2011) “Engineering Input for the Assessment of Flood Risk
due to the Climate Change in the Upper Thames River Basin”, ASCE Jou of Hydrologic Engineering, 16(7):608-612.
Bowering, E., A. M. Peck, and S.P. Simonovic, (2013) “A flood risk assessment to municipal infrastructure due to changing climate part I:Methodology”,Urban Water Jou, 11(1):20-30.
Peck, A., E. Bowering, and S.P. Simonovic, (2013) “A flood risk assessment to municipal infrastructure due to changing climate part II: case study”, Urban Water Jou, 11(7):519-531.
