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FLOOD PROPAGATION UNCERTAINTY. J. Mulet – F. Alcrudo Area de Mecánica de Fluidos, CPS-Universidad de Zaragoza. BASIC UNCERTAINTY APPROACH. Run models on the three (upper, mid, lower) hydrographs provided in breach analysis Fixed bathymetry (1982) Added comparison with 1998 bathymetry - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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FLOOD PROPAGATIONFLOOD PROPAGATIONUNCERTAINTYUNCERTAINTY
J. Mulet – F. AlcrudoArea de Mecánica de Fluidos, CPS-Universidad de Zaragoza
BASIC UNCERTAINTY APPROACH
• Run models on the three (upper, mid, lower) hydrographs provided in breach analysis
• Fixed bathymetry (1982)– Added comparison with 1998 bathymetry
• Different models/modellers
UNCERTAINTY SIMULATIONS.UNCERTAINTY SIMULATIONS.
SIMULATION NUMBER OF CELLS CITY MODEL
CEMAGREF COURSE MESH 2611 VERTICAL WALLS*
UCL R-7 60911 VERTICAL WALLS
UDZ-1 (Mulet) ~ 20000 VERTICAL WALLS
SIMULATION NUMBER OF CELLS CITY MODEL
UDZ-2 (Murillo) ~ 40000 BOTTOM ELEVATION
1982 BATHYMETRY
1998 BATHYMETRY
REQUESTED RESULTS:
- WATER DEPTH HISTORY AT GAUGE/POINTS LOCATIONS
- DISCHARGE HYDROGRAPH THROUGH SECTIONS
- WATER DEPTH ENVELOPE OF 0.5 m AND 2 m
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES.DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES.
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES.DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES.
EXPERIMENTAL SPIKE LIKE PEAK BETTER REPRODUCED
PLATEAU LIKE EMPTYING
NOT BIG DIFFERENCES IN WATER SURFACE ELEVATION BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 1.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 1.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (4.77m)1982 MAX - MIN
DIFFERENCES ATTRIBUTABLE TO INTERPOLATION IN STEEP SLOPE AREA
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 2.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 2.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (2.67m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREOLD CINEMA
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 4.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 4.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (0.71m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTURECONDES DE ORGAZ STREET
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 6.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 6.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (1.24m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREPROYECTO C STREET
- DIFFERENCES BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES STRESSED
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 7.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 7.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (~0m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREOLD CITY HALL
- SPIKE LIKE PEAK BETTER REPRODUCED
- SIMILAR WATER ELEVATION FOR BOTH BATHYMETRIES
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 8.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 8.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (1.29m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTURECLOCK´S SITE
RISE RATES ARE BETTER REPRODUCED WITH THE UPPER HYDROGRAPH
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 10.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 10.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (0.41m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREJÚCAR STREET
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 13.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. GAUGE 13.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (-1.12m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREVALENCIA STREET
IMPORTANT BATHYMETRY EFFECT
(EVEN IF DIFFERENCES IN BOTOTM ELEVATION AT GAUGE ARE SMALL)GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE
1 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT A.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT A.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (-1.17m)1982 BATHYMETRY
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 1.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 1.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE1 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM
IMPORTANT DISCHARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 2 BATHYMETRIES
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT B.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT B.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (3.45m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREAZUD
STRONG SCATTERING BETWEEN MODELS/MODELERS
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 2.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 2.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREAZUD
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT C.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT C.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (4.4m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE3 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 3.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 3.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE3 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT D.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT D.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (1.7m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREBEFORE HILL UPSTREAM SUMACÁRCEL
NEARLY NO DISPERSION AT ALL
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT E.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT E.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (5.9m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTURERIVER BANK OPPOSITE SUMACÁRCEL
NEARLY NO DISPERSION IN WATER ELEVATION BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT F.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT F.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY (4.1m)1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREDOWNSTREAM SUMACÁRCEL
NEARLY NO DISPERSION IN WATER ELEVATION BETWEEN BATHYMETRIES
ADDED RUNS
HID NUMBER OF CELLS
VALLEY FRICTION ZONES FRICTION CITY MODEL
UPPER- U ~ 20000 0.045 0.1 NONE
BASIC ~ 20000 0.025 0.1 VERTICAL WALLS
LOW-L ~ 20000 0.025 0.025 NONE
1982 BATHYMETRY
UNCERTAINTY 0.5m ISOLINES.UNCERTAINTY 0.5m ISOLINES.
UDZ-1 UPPER
UDZ-1 LOWER
CESI
UNCERTAINTY 0.5m ISOLINES.UNCERTAINTY 0.5m ISOLINES.
UDZ-1 UPPER
UDZ-1 LOWER
CESI
UNCERTAINTY 0.5m ISOLINES.UNCERTAINTY 0.5m ISOLINES.
UDZ-1 UPPERUDZ-1 LOWER
CESI
UNCERTAINTY 2m ISOLINES.UNCERTAINTY 2m ISOLINES.
UDZ-1 UPPERUDZ-1 LOWER
CESI
UNCERTAINTY 2m ISOLINES.UNCERTAINTY 2m ISOLINES.
CEM UPPER
UDZ-1 UPPER
CESI
NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECT INFLUENCE OF ADDED UNCERTAINTY EFFECTS
GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE1 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT A.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT A.
UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 1.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 1.
UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS
GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE1 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT B.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT B.
UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREAZUD
EXTRA FRICTION EFFECTS ARE INCREASED DOWNSTREAM
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 2.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 2.
1982-1998 BATHYMETRY1982 BATHYMETRY
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREAZUD
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT C.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT C.
UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS
GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE3 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM
FURTHER INCREASE DOWNSTREAM MAINLY DUE TO THE FRICTION ZONING (NO SIGNIFICANT EFFECT OF BASELINE FRICTION)
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 3.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. SECTION 3.
UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS
GAUGE LOCATION PICTURE3 KM DOWNSTREAM TOUS DAM
- SAME WATER FLOW RATE FOR BOTH BATHYMETRIES THROUGH SECTION 3 DESPITE THE DIFFERENCE IN WATER LEVEL
- SAME PEAK AS IN THE OUTFLOW TOUS DAM HYDROGRAPH
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT D.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT D.
UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREBEFORE HILL UPSTREAM SUMACÁRCEL
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT E.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT E.
UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS
GAUGE LOCATION PICTURERIVER BANK OPPOSITE SUMACÁRCEL
UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT F.UNCERTAINTY RESULTS. POINT F.
UDZ-1BETWEEN MODELLERS
GAUGE LOCATION PICTUREDOWNSTREAM SUMACÁRCEL
NO FURTHER INCREASE IN THE EFFECT
CONCLUSIONS (Preliminary)
• Uncertainty sources considered (and proved relevant)– Model / Modeler– Bathymetry– Friction levels
• Specifically friction distribution/zoning• Baseline friction level not significant
• Uncertainty in urban area– Overall 2m (either water depth / water elevation)
• Uncertainty in valley– Considerably higher with strong differences– No clear indications as to comparative influence of considered
parameters/effects