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A. S. Chen, M. J. Hammond, S. Djordjević, D. Butler
Flood damage assessment for urban growth scenarios
Outline
• Introduction
• Methodology
• Assessment tool
• Conclusions
International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
Introduction
Drivers and pressures
Flood hazard assessment
Vulnerability / impact assessment
Responses and resilience strategies
International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
Introduction
International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
Introduction
Tangible Intangible
Direct
Physical damage to assets •Buildings •Contents •Infrastructure
Loss of life Injuries Diseases Loss of ecological goods
Indirect
Loss of industrial production Traffic disruption Emergency costs
Inconvenience of post-flood recovery Increased vulnerability of survivors
International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
Introduction
Image source: Google map
International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
Flood damage assessment
Damage
Depth
Depth-Damage Curves (DDC)
Land uses
International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
Depth-damage curves (DDC)
The Benefits of Flood and Coastal Risk Management: A Handbook of Assessment Techniques-2010 (Multi-Coloured Manual), Middlesex University, UK
International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
Hazard-vulnerability function
Damage Hazard information Vulnerability
Building content/
construction damage
Flood depth
(and duration) Financial loss
Building construction
damage
Flood velocity
(and duration) Building resistance
Pedestrian safety Flood depth Human physical resistance
Pedestrian safety Flood velocity Human physical resistance
Driving safety Flood depth Vehicle resistance
Driving safety Flood velocity Vehicle resistance
Human body health Contamination concentration
(and duration) Human body resistance
International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
Health-impact assessment
Health Impact
Contamination
Contamination-Health Impact
Curves
Demographic data
Mortality
Depth
Depth-Mortality
Curves (DDC)
Demographic data
International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
Urban growth prediction
2004 baseline
Dhaka urban growth model (UGM) prediction
2050 BAU high
Reality vs. UGM prediction
Legend
Others
Commercial Activity
Education & Research
Governmental Services
Mixed Use
Manufacturing & Processing Activity
Residential
Reality vs. UGM prediction
0 180 36090m
±
Legend
Others
Commercial Activity
Education & Research
Governmental Services
Mixed Use
Manufacturing & Processing Activity
Residential
International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
Development environment
• Standard GIS data format adopted
• Integrated with DHI MIKE software
• Python scripts and Geoprocessing functions within ESRI ArcGIS software
• Minimum manual input to calculate the flood damage
• Transportable to other GIS software packages/platforms
• Separate executable programs for additional functions
International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
Reality – UGM correlation
International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
Reality vs. UGM prediction
Land
cover
class
Building use
Comm.
Activity
Edu. &
Resear.
Gove.
Services
Mixed
Use
Manuf. &
Proc.
Activity
Residenti
al
1 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7%
2 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 10.3%
3 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 16.6%
4 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 21.4%
5 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 2.0% 1.4% 26.5%
6 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 2.7% 2.7% 31.5%
7 4.1% 0.8% 0.2% 3.6% 4.5% 33.9%
8 6.3% 0.8% 0.3% 5.9% 7.4% 30.8%
9 9.8% 0.9% 0.5% 12.6% 8.4% 21.4%
10 11.0% 1.2% 0.5% 36.4% 2.8% 12.6%
International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
Flood damage per building
International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
Flood damage per unit area
International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
Local comparison
International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
Citywide comparison
Building use type Damage (USD)
Comm. Activity 154,361
Edu. & Resear. 54,519
Gove. Services 27,274
Mixed Use 652,138
Manuf. & Proc.
Activity 275,122
Residential 3,514,702
Total 4,678,115
Land cover class Damage (USD)
1 208,660
2 399,085
3 461,626
4 576,391
5 860,895
6 1,027,854
7 1,239,475
8 737,415
9 348,880
10 193,718
Total 6,053,999
International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
UGM prediction
2004 baseline 2050 BAU high
International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
Future damage
International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
Conclusions
• GIS-based tool for flood damage assessment
• Capable utilising the hydraulic modelling results directly
• Evaluate the flood damage efficiently
• Associate the land cover classes to the current reality, correlation to be improved
• Applied to assess flooding damage for future urban growth
• Possible applications for different hazard-vulnerability analyses and other future scenarios
International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
Acknowledgements
• Research on the CORFU (Collaborative research on flood resilience in urban areas) project was funded by the European Commission through Framework Programme 7, Grant Number 244047.
• The authors appreciate the Institute of Water Modelling (IWM) for the provision of case study data and William Veerbeek for the UGM modelling results.
International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK