FlightPlan ResearchPhase 2 Summary Results

Jim McGee

Global Mapping International

IAMA Conference

May 2006

2

Global Mapping International– Part of and committed to the mission community– Unaffiliated with the mission aviation community– Focus and commitment to research

GMI’s Mission:

Produce and present world-class research that fuels emerging mission movements and leaders.

Background

3

Key Elements of the Project

Collaboration and involvement sought from all stakeholders

A visible, open process Compilation of valuable information for distribution

throughout the mission aviation community Funding provided from several sources Third-party analysis and reporting

4

Phases

Phase 1: Document the status, dynamics and trends

Phase 2: Explore perceptions, needs, challenges, opportunities

Phase 3: Envision and analyze possible & preferable futures

Phase 1: Status & Trends

6

Phase 1 CD Contents

Research Report: Status of Mission Aviation– History– Global Trends– Missiology– Finance– Training– Technology– Strategy/Practice

7

Phase 1 CD Contents

Directory of mission aviation service providers Web directory of mission aviation web sites Library of 300 mission aviation documents Key documents

– Dave Bochman– Ed Robinson– Scott Zibell

Key measures

8

Sample of Phase 1 InfoU.S. Aviation Training Trends

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Cou

nt

Student Pilots Flight Instructors

National and global trends

Number of student pilots has dropped 41% in past 20 years

9

Sample of Phase 1 InfoGlobal Jet Fuel Prices

$-

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Date

Pri

ce p

er G

allo

n (

US

$)

Asia (Singapore)

Europe (Rotterdam)

N. America (New York)

10

Sample of Phase 1 Info15 Large Aviation Service Providers

(Change from 1988-2002)

428

253

616

294

107 103

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Technical Staff Aircraft Flight Hours (thousands)

Year

Co

un

t

1988 2002

Technical m.a. staff is up by 44% since 1988

Flight hours are roughly unchanged

(Chart does not show all known orgs)

11

More Phase 1 Learning (plus)

Roadless population growing: 1 billion by 2030 Among poorest peoples, mobility not expected

to increase substantially Building roads often doesn’t give poorest

access to services they need Economic-valuation models say the value of

time saved is multiplied by a factor of (significant given rapid population increase)

12

More Phase 1 Learning (plus)

Fuel savings from diesel/autofuel aircraft expected to recoup cost in 4 years of service

Staff attrition at MAF (6.5% annually) is similar to that of all U.S.-based missions (6.0%)

Projected supply of pilot trainees runs fairly close to expressed agency need (but do they reach the field?)

Projected supply of maintenance specialists runs somewhat short

Phase 2: Perceptions, Needs, Opportunities, Challenges

14

Methodology

Objectives: Gather internal (stakeholder) and external perspectives

Internal: Interview leaders/representatives within stakeholder groups to explore key issues, questions– Depth interviews– Online focus groups

External: Survey current and potential users of mission aviation to explore needs, perceptions

What Stakeholders See

16

Depth Interviews

40 depth interviews (phone, email) – 15 service providers (10 agencies; senior leaders,

field leaders, pilots, recruiters)– 8 trainers/equippers (5 schools, 3 bridge programs) – 6 support specialists (4 agencies) – 5 donors– 4 service users (representing Guatemala, Ecuador,

Cameroon, South Africa, China and PNG)– 2 current/former students

17

Online Discussions

Discussion Boards– 75 mission-aviation stakeholders– Topical: focusing on questions outlined in Phase 1– Situational: getting reactions to ideas that could

have application for mission aviation, e.g…. …corporate-NGO partnership for global logistics …federal giving initiative to give $200 million to faith-based

organizations working in AIDS-ravaged countries ...Islamic competition in community air service …small-scale tribal tourism operations …2-year field internship for prospective missionaries

18

Values

In relative frequency of mention– Cooperate with other agencies– Be a missionary first, a pilot second– Empower indigenous peoples by increasing their

access to health/education services– Partner closely with national believers/churches– Leave when appropriate; establish exit parameters– Select appropriate technology for situation – Emphasize safety and safety standards– Seek sustainability, financially and otherwise

19

Values

– Focus on learning/research/using information – Define and measure effectiveness – Speed the path to the field; show agility on the field – Consider God-honoring business applications – Smaller aircraft have a place– Internships must meet objectives (not just exposure) – Users pay portion of costs – Variety in the enterprise is good

20

Concerns

In relative frequency of mention– Cost of aviation for nationals (and expats)– Government resistance/regulation– Rising operational costs (and currency devaluation) – Students failing to get to field due to cost, debt and

distractions – Supply of students – Insurance costs

21

Concerns

– Service providers staying too long – Changing technology (training, certification) – Declining funding sources/trends – Avgas supply – Agencies less likely to place missionaries in

isolated locations

22

Opportunities

In relative frequency of mention– Internship opportunities for trainees – Low-tech/simple tech (Steve Saint) – Mission-Business ventures and models – Partnership/consultation with governments on

infrastructure – Cargo capacity – more stuff, fewer trips (Kodiak) – Second-career people/volunteers – Secular schools supplying students

23

Opportunities

– Humanitarian opportunities in closed places – Airstrip construction in areas where governments

are committed to providing services – Pilots returning from the field (training, promoting)– Tentmaking opportunities for trainees – Need of nationals to learn English – Use of commercial pilots for short-term needs– Navigation technology – Community air service

24

Opportunities

– Group insurance– Microaviation – small-scale do-it-alls– FBOs lying dormant– Running national training institutions

25

Needs

Relative frequency of mention– Intentionally reduce dependence on expats– Speed the transition to new aircraft– Recruit more people– Help trainees get field ready (skill & finances)– Measure opportunity/effectiveness– Evaluate viability of new tech applications– Market the benefits to users, churches

26

Needs

– Intentionally seek national administrators (not just technicians)

– Adopt standards across organizations as appropriate (unity without uniformity)

– Understand total cost/investment– Train pilots and trainees on diesel/turbine– Communicate better across agencies– Recruit people with business acumen

What Others See

28

Internet Survey of Potential Users

Internet survey of field leaders whose agencies work among remote peoples

Offline version made available Languages: English, Spanish, Portuguese Recruiting sources emphasized global South

– WEA Mission Commission Associates (global)– Ethne 2006 email list (primarily Asia)– Comibam email list (Latin America)– MANI network regional leaders

29

Internet Survey of Potential Users

Survey billed as “Remote Peoples and Mission Transportation Survey” to avoid potential response bias

40+ data points, including attitude/behavior ratings, 2 open-ended questions, demographics

Respondents asked to identify themselves by name and mission organization

119 valid responses from approximately 800 invitations (approx. 15% response)

30

Involvement with Remote PeoplesMissionaries from our organization...

Do not often work with remote peoples

(intentional)6%

Do not represent sending agency

9%

Often live full time in remote areas

30%

Often travel to remote areas, live elsewhere

29%

Often train people from remote areas (elsewhere)

10%

Do not often work with remote peoples (unintentional)

16%

Respondents asked about relationship with remote peoples

Those not directly engaged with remote peoples were filtered out, as were aviation service providers

Reporting based on 82 responses

31

DemographicsRegion of Residence

Latin America51%

Africa12%

Asia/Pacific (Developing)

20%

Developed World (OECD Nations)

17%

83% of responses from people living in the majority world

Half of respondents live in Latin America

For most measures, no bias based on region of residence

32

DemographicsRegions of Ministry Engagement

23%

11%

48%45%

54%

33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Latin America Africa Asia/Pacific(Developing)

Europe Asia/Pacific(Developed)

North America

Most respondents represent missions active in multiple regions

33

DemographicsPercentage of Missionaries in Agency Originating from the Developing World

36%

27%

8%

12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

10% or Less 11%-50% 51%-90% More than 90%

Mix of national-oriented and expat-oriented missions

Relatively few missions have a balance of missionaries from both types of countries

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DemographicsNumber of Field Missionaries Affiliated with Mission

6%

14%

30%

6%

26%

18%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

10 or Fewer 11 to 50 51 to 100 101-250 251-500 More than 500

More than half of respondents from smaller missions;

Nearly 4 in 10 from missions with more than 100 field staff

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Attitudes: Challenges in MinistryChallenges in Working Among Remote Peoples

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Access Difficult

Health/SecurityConcerns

GovernmentResistant

ExpatsReluctant to Go

RemotePeoples

Resistant

NationalsReluctant to

Return

Top Challenge Second Challenge

48%

43%

33% 31%30%

15%

Top challenges:– Access– Health/Security Concerns

36

Attitudes: Use of Big GrantHow a US$60,000 Grant Would Be Invested

(from open-ended responses)

15%

17%

27%

30%

6%

9%

5%

12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Aircraft

Broadcasting

Computer/Internet

Transport Services

Two-wheeled Vehicles

Boats

Telecom

Trucks/Cars

Aviation is complex, so no surprise to see it low on priority list

Other responses related to aviation:

– Telecommunications– Transport Services

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Attitudes: Transport Problems% Saying Issue is a "Big Problem" for Mission Work in Remote Areas

31%

49%

14%

17%

14%

19%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Insufficient Options forTravel

Unreliable/unpredictableTravel

Safety/security Problems

Slow Travel

Difficulty TransportingCargo

Expense of Travel

Expense is top problem; a challenge for aviation

Cargo transport is an opportunity for aviation

Also, to a lesser degree, speed, safety & reliability

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Air travel used moderately, as is boat and foot travel

Boat use much higher in Latin America than Africa or Asia

Behaviors: Travel ModesFrequency of Travel Modes to Remote Areas

(mean rating on 5-point scale)

2.4

2.0

3.22.9

3.7

2.9

1

2

3

4

5

MotorizedVehicle

Boat Airplane Foot Bicycle Train

Never

Always

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Behaviors: Aviation UsageUsage of Mission Aviation Service

Often4%

Sometimes20%

Do Not Know9%

Cannot (unavailable)

51%

Used To0%

Have Not16%

Second half of survey specific to aviation

Mission aviation not seen as available in many areas

– Unavailable?– Unaware?

1 in 4 missions note use of aviation at some level

40

Barriers to Using Mission Aviation(mean rating on 5-point scale)

4.3

2.8

2.9

2.3

3.2

1 2 3 4 5

Image - sends the wrongimpression

Alternative modes oftransport are reliable and

affordable

Lack of fit with missionstrategy

Schedule/destinationsare inconvenient or

unavailable

Cost

No Barrier Great Barrier

Attitudes: Barriers to Aviation Use

Confirms cost issue and perception of unavailability

Few have problem with use of planes generally

41

Scenario: If Given an Airplane and Resources to Fly

Keep the plane, but let another ministry operate

it for us43%

Sell the plane and use the money for other

needs12%

Keep the plane and develop our own air

ministry23%

Give or trade the plane to another organization

22%

Anticipated Behavior: If Given Aircraft

2 of 3 missions would keep a plane if given one

Only 1 in 8 would sell it outright rather than work to keep it in mission service

42

Attitudes About Mission Aviation(mean rating on 5-point scale)

3.6

4.0

3.5

1.9

3.2

2.4

1 2 3 4 5

Small airplanes are a reminder of colonialism and asign of elite, privileged foreigners.

Mission aviation is useful in a few out-of-the-wayplaces but is mostly irrelevant to the future of

mission.

All peoples will not be reached without the continuinguse of small aircraft.

Mission aviation is much safer and more secure thanother transportation options.

National missionaries would like to be able to useairplanes more frequently.

Aviation enables ministry that would not otherwise bepossible.

Completely Disagree Completely Agree

Attitudes: Mission Aviation

In general, strong support for use of aviation in mission

Analysis/Ideas

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Analysis / Ideas

Marketing/Communications– Movement from reactive to proactive, especially

among agencies that have few North Americans– Awareness: Potential users should be aware of the

opportunities to use mission aviation service– Benefits of mission aviation should be more

intentionally communicated to potential users (transportation consulting)

– Grants for marketing could be tied to follow-up funding based on increases in requests for service

45

Analysis / Ideas

Failure to Get to the Field– With partner approach (schools/bridge/agency), no

one accompanies student through the whole process– Students aren’t sure what they want to do; they need

an advocate/counselor– Potential role for IAMA or others: membership-based

career service for Christian aviation students– Could include internship clearinghouse– Should include commercial options, especially

given expanding nature of “mission”

46

Analysis / Ideas

Failure to Remain on the Field– Missionaries less likely to stay for a full career;

especially an issue for aviation due to initial cost– Lots of roles at home for former field staff, but…– …they can’t be publicized, because the staff are so

needed on the field– Require a portion of support placed in a deferred

fund, with substantial bonuses for extended service– Allow home assignments to be made public and

given honor

47

Analysis / Ideas

The Struggle to Integrate Nationals– Agencies committed to development of national

leaders, but training is a challenge & funding difficult – Meanwhile, agencies note that most people give to

individual aviators, not agencies– Consider expat-national counterpart program

Expat raises support for self and for counterpart Churches more likely to provide support w/link to national

48

Analysis / Ideas

What to Do With Second-Career Pilots?– Do something! – Research shows that pilots over 60 are no more

of a risk than those under 35 (though they may not be able to fly into 15o-slope jungle strips)

– Increasing opportunities for short-term or contract relief work, international flight training, mentoring

– As likely to get a decade or more of service from them as from many younger pilots

Phase 3: Future Scenarios

50

Process

Identify and prioritize evaluation criteria Identify and describe models/scenarios Evaluate scenarios

– Underlying assumptions– Anticipated/required conditions – Preferability based on criteria

51

Evaluation Criteria

Initial set of criteria, based on Phase 2 input:– Consistency with agency’s mission, vision, calling– Effective use of technology and information– Effective use of staff gifts and talents– Effective partnership with national churches– Effective cooperation/unity with other agencies and senders– Ability to reach/impact many people– Ability to impact areas traditionally closed to Christian work– Ability to address needs that cannot be met otherwise– Long-term viability of strategy– Ability to mobilize human and financial resources

How would you or your agency prioritize these? What additional criteria would you add?

52

Potential Models/Scenarios

The following slides outline a series of potential models/scenarios for the future of mission aviation

Most of these have been inspired by suggestions from mission-aviation stakeholders

Other models/scenarios may be added; suggestions are welcomed

53

Agile Provider

Summary: Servant of All, using efficiencies of scale to conduct a wide variety of aviation services, rapidly deploying and redeploying to maximize existing and emerging opportunities in a dynamic environment

Core Activities– Monitoring/evaluating opportunities– Logistics – managing resources for efficiency & effectiveness– Funding likely to come from many sources– Partnership with ministry and secular entities

54

Agile Provider

Extension/Partnership ActivitiesAbility to establish alternative/subsidiary corporate structures, as needed

– Coordination with alternative travel modes– Coordination with rural-development initiatives

Credit: Dave Bochman, MAF

55

Vertically Integrated Agency

Summary: Servant of the Sending Church, providing an efficient, integrated path for missionaries focused on learning and serving within a particular context.

Core Activities– Recruiting/Training/Certifying/Deploying– Internship Programs– Scholarship/Debt Management– FBO Management

56

Vertically Integrated Agency

Extension/Partnership Activities– Partnership with Local Churches (short-term

transport, interships, etc.)– FBO investment-opportunity evaluation– Consultant to other agencies

Credit: Don Starlin, Adventist World Aviation

57

Tribal Mobility Advocate

Summary: Servant to Indigenous Peoples, assisting in implementation of aviation and other mobility efforts at the initiative of local leadership using appropriate technologies

Core Activities – Evaluating/monitoring tribal mobility needs and interests– Connecting needs with appropriate technology– Identifying creative, appropriate financing– Training– Monitoring & Evaluating Effectiveness– Developing Models

58

Tribal Mobility Advocate

Extension/Partnership Activities – Public Advocacy/Awareness– Micro-enterprise Development– Identifying/Opening Markets for Tribal Produce/Goods

Credit: Steve Saint, I-TEC

Secular parallel: Survival International

59

Airdrop/Airlink Services

Summary: Air-based Servant of Isolated Rural Peoples, focusing on providing broad access to services with limited ground-based infrastructure

Core Activities – Identifying and communicating opportunities/needs  – Manned and unmanned air drop of community development

resources (health, education)– Air-based communication network – Collaborating with national/international entities

60

Airdrop/Airlink Services

Extension/Partnership Activities – Literacy training– Medical missions– Microenterprise development (UAV delivery service) – Telecommunications partnerships – Christian broadcast/content providers

Credit: Robert Nicholls, Airdrop

61

Volunteer-driven Cost Leader

Summary: Servant to National Church Initiatives by providing restored aircraft and human resources, relying primarily on volunteer and contract labor

Core Activities:– Evaluating national needs and initiatives – Acquiring/restoring aircraft– Recruiting experienced volunteer and short-term laborers

62

Volunteer-driven Cost Leader

Extension/Partnership Activities: – Remote maintenance– Short-term trips– Partnership with corporate goodwill programs of

aviation suppliers

Credit: Doug Clements, Wings of Hope

63

Infrastructure Specialist

Summary: Servant to community development, sacrificing overt ministry opportunities to be an effective partner with national governments and the international development community.

Core Activities– Providing Community Air Service– Providing Consulting Services (to help establish standards &

regulation, criteria for service/evaluation)– Providing Education (training, value of air travel) – Collaborating with National/International Entities

64

Infrastructure Specialist

Extension/Partnership Activities– Community Health– Hospitality Development– Tourism Development– Medical Services Development– Transportation Systems Integration

Credit: Jon Lewis, Partners International

65

Provider Cooperative

Summary: Servant of Service Providers, enabling small and not-so-small operators to gain the advantages of standardization, collective bargaining, shared communication, etc.

Core Activities:– Developing cooperative membership (recruiting, serving,

informing)– Developing standards and cooperative initiatives – Negotiating with suppliers– Coordinating grant-seeking efforts (shared and independent)– Monitoring activities to limit duplication of effort

66

Provider Cooperative

Extension/Partnership Activities:– Partnering with training institutes to develop aviator-

development efficiencies– Potential partnership with a commercial counterpart

Credit: Jon Egeler, MSI & John Armstrong, IAMANon-aviation Parallel: Parable Christian Stores

67

Pioneer Specialist

Summary: Servant of Pioneer Missions, opening access to locations where ministry is not yet occurring

Core Activities: – Surveying Needs/Opportunities/Sustainability – Assisting in developing initial relationships in coordination with

pioneer mission agencies– Helipad/Airstrip Construction– Efficient Entry/Exit Strategies– Multi-modal transportation logistics

68

Pioneer Specialist

Extension/Partnership Activities:– Network of aviation partners to sustain service– Disaster Assistance (access reconstruction)

Inspirations: Helimission, JAARS

69

Global Training Specialist

Summary: Servant of Students, providing varied, extensive training on a globally distributed basis

Core Activities:– Establishing Distributed Training Centers

(or network of training-center partners)– Recruiting/Qualifying Students– Monitoring Mission Aviator Demand/Supply– Developing Incentives for Mission Service

70

Global Training Specialist

Extension/Partnership Activities:– Aviator Student Fellowships– ESL Language Training– Cultural-exchange Programs– Strategic Relationships with Commercial Airlines– Business-development

Jim McGee

Global Mapping International

jim@gmi.org