Flight International - April 19, 2016.pdf

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FLIGHTINTERNATIONAL

CHINA CRISIS

Shanghai show lackshigh-profile buys, butbusiness aviation firmswaiting for recovery 20

GENERATION GAME

US Air Force delays F-Xfighter plan as air warfarereview supports researchinto family of systems 17

HIGH HOPES

NASA FLOATS ITS

STRATOSPHERIC

AIRSHIP AMBITION

REPORT P8

19-25 APRIL 2016

50TH ANNIVERSARY

A GIANTGAMBLEHow Boeing and Pan Am bettheir businesses on the 747

9 7 7 0 0 1 5 3 7 1 2 8 0

1 6

£3.60


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19-25 April 2016 | Flight International | 3flightglobal.com

FLIGHTINTERNATIONAL

19-25 APRIL 2016

FLIGHTINTERNATIONAL

CHINACRISISShanghaishowlackshigh-profilebuys,but businessaviationfirmswaitingforrecovery 20

GENERATIONGAMEUSAirForcedelaysF-Xfighterplanas airwarfarereviewsupportsresearchintofamilyof systems17

HIGHHOPES

NASAFLOATSITS

STRATOSPHERICAIRSHIPAMBITION

REPORTP8

19-25APRIL2016

50THANNIVER SARY

A GIANTGAMBLEHowBoeingandPanAmbet theirbusinessesonthe747

9 7 7 0 0 1 5 3 7 1 2 8 0

1 6

£3.60

FIN_ 0 4 6 _ 0 .i n d d 4 /0 4/0 6 0 :5

VOLUME 189 NUMBER 5534

A l a m y

COVER IMAGE

Our retrospective feature

about the 747’s launch half

a century ago is illustrated

with this 1971 shot of a

Pan Am example taking offfrom London Heathrow P32

BEHIND THE HEADLINES Greg Waldron (pictured) gotwith the jet set in Shanghai,during the business aviation

sector’s ABACE gathering(P20). Stephen Trimble wasin Boston, to see QatarAirways chief executive AkbarAl Baker detail the carrier’sinvestment plans (P13)

NEXT WEEK UAVSIn advance of next month’sXponential show, we look atemerging unmanned systemsthat could change our lives B i l

l y P i x ,

U S A i r F o r c e

Diamond Aircraft to raise production of DA62 P22. USAF says no single fighter will offer future air superiority P17

L o c k h e e d M a r t i n

NASA returns to its stratospheric airship concepts P8

COVER STORY 32

Big vision big jet Half a century ago, Boeing and

Pan Am took a risky gamble when they agreed tocreate the world’s largest airliner – and the betpaid off by redefining air transport

FEATURES25 ENGINES Thrusting for sales Pratt & Whitney

has finally got its geared turbofan into commercialservice and CFM’s Leap is close behind, soattention is turning to real-world performance andorder books as the two strive for domination of thenascent narrowbody power revolution. Meanwhile,these two engines underpin a string of importantnew aircraft programmes from Canada, China,Japan and Russia

REGULARS5 Comment

36 Straight & Level

38 Classified

40 Jobs

43 Working Week

NEWS

THIS WEEK

6 Bombardier clear on public funding

7 Comac advances C919 avionics work.Qatar threatens P&W with cancellation in Neo row

8 NASA signals new interest in airships.Milestone for SpaceX on road to rocket recovery

9 Push input caused 737 dive.Airbus to speed up Panther deliveries

NEWS FOCUS

10

US military exports not waning yet

11 The ramp-up risks of booming industry

AIR TRANSPORT

12 Hi Fly A340 offering zero- g experience.US legal challenge to aircraft emissions

13 Qatar stakes 777s on investment plan.GE9X powerplant starts full-scale test campaign

14 Tyre burst led to gear failure.

Rebranded Rossiya takes first 74715 Emirates steps in for cancelled A380s

DEFENCE

16 Ottawa to review defence priorities.PC-21 switch confirmed for Jordan

17 USAF looks beyond generational shift

19 GAO questions Pegasus delivery plan.Dutch KDC-10 approval key to F-35 deployment

SHOW REPORT

20 Boeing bullish on BBJ Max demand.

Globetrotting Falcon 8X makes Shanghai debut

21 Caravan sees success in Shijiazhuang.

NetJets China bolstered by BAA’s 25% stake buy

BUSINESS AVIATION

22 DA62 is off to a flying start.First G600 takes shape in Savannah

23 Cessna shaping Hemisphere.Much-delayed Outback gets airborne in Kunovice.Bombardier and Gulfstream lead Asia-Pacific fleet

F l i r t e y

Download the Military SimulatorCensus online now.

www.fightglobal.com/milisimCAE offers training centres, training services, and simulation products for helicopters.


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flightglobal.com4 | Flight International | 19-25 April 2016

CONTENTS

flightglobal.com/flight-international

Flightglobal’s premium news and data service delivers breaking air transport stories with

profiles, schedules, and fleet, financial and traffic information flightglobal.com/dashboard

QUESTION OF THE WEEK

This week, we ask: Future of the jumbo jet?

❑ Still Queen of the Skies

❑ Freighter specialist ❑ Eclipsed by A380

Vote at flightglobal.com

Last week, we asked: Foreign ownershipof airlines? You said:

Growth in US aerospace and defence exports since 2010,reaching $143.3bn in 2015; civil exports gained 65.2%

58.9%

6bn

$210m

THE WEEK IN NUMBERS

Gallons (22.7bn litres) of jet fuel saved to date by use of

Aviation Partners winglets on 7,000 aircraft of 20 types

Harris Corp has divested its $77m-revenue Salt LakeCity-based aerostructures unit to Albany International

Deloitte

Aviation Partners Boeing

Harris Corp

IMAGE OFTHE WEEK Avianca and Etihad Airwayshave signed a codeshareagreement to offer theirpassengers direct links toAbu Dhabi and Bogota, viahubs at London Heathrow andMadrid. Flightglobal’s FleetsAnalyzer database shows theColombian carrier as using 85aircraft, including 61 AirbusA320-family narrowbodies

View more great aviation shotsonline and in our weekly tabletedition:

A v i a n c a

34% 34%

32%Should be afree market

Somerestrictionsneeded

Protectstrategicassets

TOTALVOTES:

769

IN ASSOCIATION WITH

Keep track of the latest developments in

in-flight connectivity

www.flightglobal.com/connectivity


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COMMENT


Now the US Air Force is having second thoughtsabout developing such a fighter. In unusually candidremarks, the service’s lead requirements setter, Lt Gen James Holmes, says no new technology on the horizonis likely to make a sixth-generation fighter survivableagainst advanced ground-based air defences.

It has been known for some time that a modern-day,close-in dogfight is essentially a mutual suicide pact forthe opposing pilots, due to advances in high off- boresight targeting and missile agility. But it isastonishing that the USAF should now acknowledgethe fighter aircraft’s fundamental vulnerability to at-

tacks from terra firma.■

Are fighter jets still of any use in modern air warfare?A quick glance at the Stockholm International

Peace Research Institute’s annual tabulation of weap-ons exports would certainly suggest so. From Asia tothe Middle East, demand for machines designed main-ly for air superiority continues to be strong.

Despite anaemic sales growth, the defence industrysomehow sustains 11 different fighter types in activeproduction, with more in early development. Yet the fu-ture of the fighter’s core mission has never been moreuncertain. Fifth-generation designs were supposed togive way by 2030 to a sixth, which would leverage ad-

vances in tailless flight controls, advanced stealth, effi-cient supersonic propulsion and new weapons. See News Analysis P10, Defence P17

Old before their time

The big pay-off Boeing’s iconic jumbo jet is celebrating the 50th anniversary of its launch this year, but despite

its eventual triumph as an airliner, no-one – least of all its manufacturer – was sure of success

fort considerations, determined its very wide cabin.“I think the SST programme did a lot of good for the

747, although at the time it wasn’t obvious,” recalledthe programme’s engineering legend Joe Sutter in aFlight International interview in 1989. “They had theengineers, they had the development money, and theyhad the glamour.”

In the end it was the 747 that took the glamour, assoon any airline worth its salt wanted a jumbo. Its suc-cess played a big part in making Boeing what it is today.

And it defined its competitor’s behaviour too. During itsformative years, Airbus could only look on as even itsmost loyal customers called a Seattle salesman whenthey wanted a very big jet. And many did.

Boeing was able to play that market monopoly to itsadvantage across other size sectors too, so it became al-most an obsession in Toulouse to create a “superjumbo”. But by the time it did, the market dynamics hadchanged again, this time in favour of big twins. Andguess who already had that market sown up?■

Boeing celebrates its centenary in 2016, and the 747has been a big part of its life for half of the compa-

ny’s existence. The risks that Boeing took with the orig-inal decision to build the 747, and the investment itcommitted to the production programme, set the benchmark by which all future commercial aircraftprogrammes have been judged.

It is remarkable how the 747’s success beat all projec-tions in an era when the industry appeared hell-benton speed rather than size. The spectre of sleek super-sonic transports (SSTs) quickly rendering the 747 obso-

lete was in fact the secret of the jumbo’s eventual suc-cess. And as Airbus discovered with its self-styled 747successor, the A380, assumptions around markettrends can be fraught with danger.

With SSTs all the rage in the 1960s, Boeing designedthe 747 to be as capable a freighter as it was a passengerjet. The SST was expected to hoover up a large chunk

of the transatlantic passenger business, to the extentthat Boeing projected only half of the first 200 747s it built would carry people rather than boxes. In fact, thevast majority of those aircraft were passenger versions– and all entered service within three years.

The failure of the SST meant Boeing’s early concernsabout a limited passenger market were unfounded – ofthe 1,520 747s delivered, 80% started life in the passen-ger role. But the legacy of that freighter design decision– and the need for the 747 to accommodate containerson the main deck – meant that cargo, rather than com- See Feature P32

In the end it was the 747 that

had the glamour and any airline

worth its salt wanted a jumbo

Style, redefined

B o e i n g

Stay on top of the latest news

and analysis on the defence

aerospace industry at:

flightglobal.com/defence


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THIS WEEK


For more coverage of the burgeoning

unmanned air system sector log on to

flightglobal.com/UAV

ALASKA SUBSIDIARY SIGNS $2.8BN EMBRAER ORDERAIRLINE Horizon Air has ordered 30 Embraer 175 regional jets, in a

widely anticipated move. The deal is worth $2.8 billion at list prices,including 33 options. Deliveries are scheduled from 2017 until

2020, with the aircraft to have 76 seats in a three-class layout.

Portland, Oregon-based Horizon says half the E175s are earmarked

for growth, while the remainder will replace 15 leased turboprops.

BOOST FOR CS300 AS AIR BALTIC FIRMS OPTIONSTWINJET Air Baltic has exercised its remaining seven options for the

Bombardier CSeries, taking its total firm order for the CS300 to 20.

The new deal is worth $506 million, based on list prices. The Riga-

based carrier is the launch customer for the larger variant of the

CSeries, having placed an original order for 10, plus 10 options, in

December 2012. It then converted three options to firm orders in

February 2014. Air Baltic’s first CS300 is being assembled at

Bombardier’s facility in Mirabel, Quebec, and is expected to enterservice during the third quarter of this year.

PRESIDENT-S TO PROTECT RUSSIAN HELICOPTERSROTORCRAFT Russian Helicopters will integrate a defensive aids

suite onto the Mil Mi-17V-5, Mi-171Sh and Mi-26T2 transports and

from 2017 the Mi-28NE and Kamov Ka-52 attack helicopters also, to

protect them from attack by air-to-air and surface-to-air missiles. It

plans to deliver 12 rotorcraft with the President-S system – provided

by Rostec sister company Kret – to export customers this year.

DC-3 DESTROYED AFTER COLOMBIAN ACCIDENTINCIDENT One of the few Douglas DC-3s still flown by a commercial

carrier has been destroyed in Colombia. The country’s air transport

regulator Aerocivil identifies the aircraft as being registeredHK-2663, part of the fleet of operator ARALL Aerolineas Llaneras. It

came down “minutes after take-off” on 7 April, says Aerocivil, while

operating a flight from Puerto Gaitan to Villavicencio. The vintage

aircraft’s entire forward fuselage was destroyed in a blaze.

MALAYSIAN CARRIERS TO FORM ASSOCIATIONCO-OPERATION Seven airlines have joined forces to create the

Association of Malaysian Air Carriers. AirAsia, AirAsia X, Berjaya Air,

Firefly, Malaysia Airlines, Malindo Air and MASWings will use this to

discuss issues such as safety, security and air traffic control. The

proposed association will be open to all carriers in the country.

HNA ADDS TO PORTFOLIO WITH GATEGROUP DEAL

ACQUISITION Hainan Airlines’ parent company, HNA Group, is setto take over airline catering and passenger services operation

GateGroup Holding. HNA has offered Swfr53 ($55.60) per share for

the Swiss-based company – whose divisions include catering arm

GateGourmet and lounge design firm Performa – valuing GateGroup

at around Swfr1.4 billion. The GateGroup board is “unanimously”

recommending the offer to shareholders. HNA in February complet-

ed a $2.8 billion acquisition of ground handling firm Swissport.

RAFAEL UNVEILS ITS ‘DRONE DOME’DEVELOPMENT Rafael has announced details of a “Drone Dome”

product to counter the malicious or hostile use of unmanned air vehi-

cles. With 360° coverage, the system uses an electro-optical/infra-

red sensor and radar to detect potential threats, before using a radio

frequency inhibitor/jammer to interfere with operations.

BRIEFING

UNMANNED SYSTEMS

Heron flocks to Super Hornet swarm

C o m m o n w e a l t h o f A u s t r a l i a

The Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) is flying its Israel Aerospace

Industries Heron unmanned air vehicle at RAAF Amberley in

Queensland, marking the first time the aircraft has operated along-

side manned military aircraft at one of the service’s home bases.

The Heron is typically based at the Woomera test range, where it

carries out training sorties, but for a short period it is operating from

Amberley alongside the 24 Boeing F/A-18F Super Hornets from the

RAAF’s 1 and 6 Sqns.

In 2015, the RAAF and Airservices Australia signed an agreement

to fly the Heron in civilian airspace for the first time, with the mile-

stone taking place on 24 June at Rockhampton airport.

As the debate intensifies inCanada over ploughing more

public funds into the BombardierCSeries programme, the Montrealmanufacturer has published an“opinion letter” aimed at settingthe record straight on the extent ofgovernment financial aid the com-pany has received.

“Too much misinformation has

been injected into the conversa-tion,” writes Sylvain Lévesque,Bombardier’s vice-president ofcorporate strategy.

The open letter, posted onBombardier’s website on 12 April,comes as the country’s prime min-ister, Justin Trudeau, weighs a billion-dollar investment in a newCSeries joint venture established between Bombardier and the pro-vincial government of Quebec.

Canadian taxpayers haveinvested $1.05 billion in the com-

pany since 1992, mostly through

repayable loans, helping pro-grammes such as the Q400, CRJregional jets, Global Express busi-ness jet, and the CSeries throughdevelopment, Lévesque says.

In return, Bombardier hasrepaid $733 million to the govern-ment so far, he adds. The repay-ments do not yet include returnson $467 million of funding from

the Canadian and UK govern-ments for the CSeries programme.Those will begin later this yearafter the first CS100 enters service,Lévesque says.

In addition, Bombardier hascontributed more than $16 billionin taxes since acquiring Canadairin 1986, he adds.

“In this case, the facts speak forthemselves,” Lévesque says.“Over the past three decades,Bombardier has proven to be asound partner for governments

and taxpayers alike.”■

FINANCIAL STEPHEN TRIMBLE WASHINGTON DC

Bombardier clearon public funding Canadian airframer attempts to set out how much state aidit has received, as government debates CSeries assistance


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THIS WEEK


NASA signals newinterest in airships

THIS WEEK P8

Comac is engaged in thesecond stage of software in-tegration testing for its C919narrowbody, while the firstflight-test aircraft awaits theinstallation of wiring.

The software integration workis taking place at the company’scampus on the outskirts ofShanghai, where an avionics testlab is located adjacent to theC919 “iron bird” test rig.

During a tour by Flight Interna-tional , a company official said that

the initial stage of the process has been completed. This saw avion-ics integrated with aircraft sys-tems in the lab, with the softwarethen loaded onto the iron bird.

A 21-strong avionics team, withassistance from foreign suppliers,is now engaged in a second step,which will fix bugs and issuesidentified in the earlier phase.

The current stage includes workon all internal functions such asdisplays, navigation, communi-cations, and the flight manage-ment system.

This second software load willthen be installed in the iron birdfor further tests, ahead of a thirdintegration round. The complet-ed software will then be loadedonto both the iron bird and thefirst flight-test aircraft, which isexpected to make its maidensortie by the end of 2016.

AIRCRAFT 101

A tour of the final assembly facil-ity at Shanghai Pudong Interna-tional airport also revealed thataircraft 101, the first flying proto-type, has had a number of signifi-cant components removed sinceits roll-out in November 2015.

Its two CFM InternationalLeap-1C engines are no longer inplace, and all the control surfaceson the trailing edge of the winghave been uninstalled. There are

also no leading edge slats mount-ed. The aircraft’s elevators,however, are fitted to the horizon-tal stabilisers.

While the landing gear is in-stalled, the gear doors have beenremoved. The aircraft is also sup-ported on pneumatic jacks.

In its interior, no wiring is ap-parent and a temporary woodenfloor is underfoot. All cabin doorsand emergency exits have beentaken out and the cockpit is de-void of instruments. Officials say

that the next step will be to installthe narrowbody’s wiring.

Comac has also revealed thefirst C919 ground-test article,

which will shortly be transferredfrom the final assembly centre toa newly-built strength test facilitylocated nearby.

Images provided by Comacshow an airframe with wingsattached, but it appears to bewithout its horizontal andvertical stabilisers.

Comac says the aircraft will

need to undergo 13 test modulesto verify its structural strength.■Additional reporting by Mavis

Toh in Singapore

Ameeting with Pratt &Whitney executives earlier

this month has left QatarAirways chief executive Akbar

Al Baker confident his list ofcomplaints about the engineselected to power 50 AirbusA320neos will be at least partlyresolved by mid-year.

But Al Baker is notwithdrawing a threat to cancelQatar’s PW1100G order if theengine manufacturer misses thedeadline and instead move tothe rival CFM InternationalLeap-1A powerplant.

“They have assured me thatmost of the issues will be solved

by mid-year and by the end of theyear all the issues will be solved,”

Ground-test article will shortly be moved to strength test facility

The first flight-test

aircraft is expected

to make its maidensortie by the end

of 2016

C o m a c

Qatar threatens P&W with cancellation in Neo rowPROPULSION STEPHEN TRIMBLE BOSTON

Lufthansa has operated the A320neo’s first international flight

PROGRAMME GREG WALDRONSHANGHAI

Comac advances C919 avionics work Tour of company facility reveals integration work in progress on narrowbody’s software and a stripped-down flying prototype

Al Baker told a Boston media briefing. “They are already on no-tice by me that if they don’t gettheir act together we will walk

away from their engines and wewill have to go to the alternative.”

Qatar Airways was due to bethe launch operator for the

A320neo last December, but thecarrier declined to take delivery,citing an extended cool-downcycle – more than three times the

industry average – for the gearedturbofan engine.

In early February, P&W pub-licly outlined plans to for a soft-

ware fix to be available for en-gines being delivered by Airbusin April. A hardware change is tofollow several weeks later.

Meanwhile, Lufthansa, whichtook over the mantle of launchcustomer, has operated the re-engined variant’s first revenueflight outside Germany. On 12April, the carrier deployed thesecond of its PW1100G-poweredA320neos (D-AINB) for a servicefrom Frankfurt to London’sHeathrow airport.

Lufthansa says the flight was aone-off intended to familiarise theairport operator with the aircraft.■Additional reporting by Michael

Gubisch in London

See Air Transport P13

J a m

e s M e l l o n / F l i g h t g l o b a l


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THIS WEEK


For up-to-the-minute air transport news,

network and fleet information sign up at:

flightglobal.com/dashboard

NASA is again consideringwhether to launch a public

competition to develop largestratospheric airships, a capabili-ty that has eluded the US militarydespite several costly attempts.

The agency is currently gaug-ing interest in such a challengeand seeking feedback on a list ofrules for the potentially three-

year competition.The proposed list calls for

interested teams to first develop a“tier 1” airship that can lift a 20kg(44lb) payload to 65,000ft, holdwithin a 20km radius whileunder control for at least 20h andsuccessfully return the payloadto the ground. The rules note thatthe airship itself is not required toreturn, allowing designers to useexpendable vehicles with recov-erable payloads.

Successful designs are eligible

to claim up to $1 million in prizemoney during the first phase. Butthe ultimate goal is to scale up thetechnology for the tier 2 competi-tion. Instead of a 20kg payload,NASA wants a designer to loft a

200kg payload into the strato-sphere for 200h, or more thaneight days.

If a team succeeds at the tier 1requirement, NASA’s challengewould have achieved a techno-logical breakthrough. Weather bal-loons are able to ascend to strato-spheric altitude, but they lackpowered controls to remain on

station. In the last decade, the USmilitary funded development oftwo stratospheric airship projects– Lockheed Martin’s high altitudeairship and its ISIS project – butneither proved successful.

NASA first floated the idea of astratospheric airship challenge in2014. The agency had commis-sioned a study by the Keck Insti-tute, which showed strong inter-est from the academic communityin using the vehicles for scientificexperiments and astronomical ob-

servation.The agency also sees commer-

cial interest in the technology,with Google a potential customeras a part of a regional telecommu-nitcations initiative. ■

Hybrid Air Vehicles (HAV) has

received the necessary approvals to

return its Airlander 10 airship – now

officially renamed – to flight.

Both European Aviation Safety

Agency and UK Civil Aviation Authority

have issued the required permis-

sions, meaning the hybrid airship is

ready to get airborne once ground

testing is complete.

“This clearly demonstrates the

regulators’ confidence in Airlander,

and the development team’s ability

to safely flight test the aircraft,” saysCarl Thomas, Airlander’s airworthi-

ness and certification officer.

On 12 April, the Airlander 10 vehi-

cle which is to be flown, was re-

named “Martha Gwyn” by HRH

Prince Edward, after the wife of

HAV’s chairman, Philip Gwyn.

An equity crowdfunding campaign

has taken place in recent weeks to

help bankroll the programme, so far

raising over £1 million ($1.43 mil-

lion) – well above the original target

of £500,000, which was reached

within the first 10h of the campaign

opening, the company says.

The Crowdcube campaign ends

on 15 April, with investment capped

at £1.25 million, HAV says. It follows

a similar crowdfunding effort in2015 that raised £2.1 million.

Hybrid Air Vehicles has been

working to return the Airlander to

flight since re-acquiring the vehicle

from Northrop Grumman in 2013.■

SpaceX on 8 April successfullyrecovered the first stage of a

Falcon 9 rocket on the landingpad of an unmanned ship posi-tioned in the Atlantic Ocean.

Coupled with the similar recov-ery of a Dragon 9 booster stage onland on 21 December 2015,SpaceX has now demonstratedthe basic feasibility of recoveringthe first stage of any rocket launch,whether the payload is intendedto be lofted to low-earth or geosta-tionary orbit, or to proceed to theMoon or another planet.

“I think it’s a good milestone

for the future of spaceflight andanother step towards the stars,”

said SpaceX founder Elon Musk,addressing a press conference at

NASA’s launch complex in CapeCanaveral, Florida.

Musk’s mood was celebratory, but measured. He spoke on thechallenges and failures that maycome before recovery of orbitalspace launchers becomes routine.

Although the first ocean recov-ery marked an historic achieve-ment, the rocket’s payload – anexpendable habitat designed byBigelow Aerospace – is headingto a rendezvous with theInternational Space Station (ISS).

But the ISS target means therecovered Falcon 9 booster was

launched on a low-earth orbit tra-jectory. It was only the second

such recovery in history, butneeded to overcome far less veloc-ity and heat than required for atrajectory to a geo-stationary orbit.

Although intended to be a sim-pler test of the four-engined recov-ery system, SpaceX engineers stillconsidered the odds of failure to be about one in three, Musk says.

The next two launches on theFalcon 9 manifest involve pay-loads heading to geostationaryorbit, says Musk. “It will still takeus a few years to make [recovery]

smooth and make it efficient. ButI think it’s proven it can work.”■

REGULATIONBETH STEVENSON LONDON

Airlander gains approval – and new title

L o c k h e e d M a r t i n

Lockheed Martin had performed trials with high-altitude concept

DIRIGIBLES STEPHEN TRIMBLE WASHINGTON DC

NASA signals new

interest in airshipsAgency to offer funding of up to $1m for teams to developcontrollable stratospheric aircraft with initial 20kg payload

Milestone for SpaceX on long road to rocket recovery SPACEFLIGHTSTEPHEN TRIMBLE WASHINGTON DC

S p a

c e X

Stage landed on unmanned ship


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THIS WEEK


US military exports

not waning yet

NEWS FOCUS P10

Russian investigators have dis-closed that a nose-down shiftin the horizontal stabiliser on theill-fated Flydubai Boeing 737-800occurred as a push input was re-corded on the crew control yoke.

The Interstate Aviation Com-mittee confirms a previous dis-closure, by the federal air trans-port regulator, that the stabilisershift occurred at a height of 900m(2,950ft), as the aircraft climbedaway from Rostov-on-Don duringa night-time go-around.

It states that “simultaneously”with the yoke being pushed inthe direction away from the crew,the stabiliser deflected to a 5°nose-down position. The aircraftrapidly pitched down and divedwith a pitch exceeding 50°.

“Subsequent actions of thecrew could not prevent collisionwith the ground,” says the in-quiry. It says the aircraft impact-ed at a speed of more than 320kt(592km/h). The jet disintegratedwith the loss of all 62 occupants.

Investigators have not reachedconclusions over the reasons for

Marshall Aerospace andDefence has been contract-

ed by special mission systemprovider Aerodata to convert twoATR 72-500s into maritimesurveillance aircraft (MSA) for anundisclosed navy.

Marshall will design, manufac-ture and certify the specialmission equipment on board theaircraft, which are expected toenter service with the customerin 2018 and 2019.

A radar, camera, self-protectionequipment and stores pylons will be installed on the twin-enginedturboprops at Marshall’s Cam-

bridge, UK site and a team of engi-neers will travel to Aerodata’s base in Braunschweig, Germanythroughout the installation. Mar-shall says there could be a later re-quirement to convert two moreATR 72s into the MSA configura-tion for the same customer.

Flightglobal’s Fleets Analyzerdatabase shows the Pakistan navyas having two ATR 72s in storage.These are undergoing conversion

to maritime surveillance aircraft,having previously been operated by Air Botswana and Binter Ca-narias. The Turkish navy has alsooperated an ATR 72-600 in theMSA role before converting it intoa utility configuration in 2013,Fleets Analyzer shows.

“During our 90-plus-year aero-space history we have worked onmore than 30 different plat-forms… making us an extremelyexperienced special mission part-ner,” says Steve Fitz-Gerald, chief

executive of Marshall Aerospaceand Defence.■

Manufacturer Airbus Helicop-ters will accelerate deliveries

of its AS565 MBe Panther anti-submarine warfare rotorcraft fol-lowing requests from the Indone-sian and Mexican navies – its sole

customers for the new variant.Initial examples were due to be

handed over to the services in

CONTRACTBETH STEVENSON LONDON

Marshall set toconvert ATR 72s

for MSA mission

“We have worked

on more than 30

different platforms…

making us extremely

experienced”STEVE FITZ-GERALDCEO, Marshall Aerospace and Defence

Airbus to speed up Panther deliveriesROTORCRAFTDOMINIC PERRY LONDON

INQUIRYDAVID KAMINSKI-MORROW LONDON

Push input caused 737 diveNose-down shift in fatal Flydubai crash was commanded from control yoke, say investigators

Narrowbody impacted the ground at a speed of more than 320kt

P A

Airframer will deliver 21 examples of MBe variant to two customers

A i r b u s

H e l i c o p t e r s

mid-2017, but this has now ad-vanced to late-2016. Airbus sayschanges to production processeshave cut lead times by 30% forfinal assembly and flight-line op-erations. This saved “several

months” on the first serial air-craft, which conducted its maid-en flight last November.

the findings into the 19 Marchcrash involving flight FZ981.

The jet had been climbing awaywith its engines at take-off settingafter aborting its second approachto runway 22, at a height of 220m.Investigators confirmed that thisoccurred some 4km (2.2nm) fromthe runway threshold. The aircraftaborted its initial approach at340m two hours earlier, after awindshear warning from the on- board systems.

Both approaches were con-

ducted manually with the autopi-lot disengaged, the inquiry states.

The Interstate Aviation Com-mittee has received a number ofspecific components from the de- bris on which it will carry outfurther research.

Investigators have confirmedthat the cloud base lay at 630m,indicating that the aircraft had en-tered cloud before the transition toa dive, but the inquiry has notstated whether the crew wouldhave had any visual references.

Transcription of the cockpit-voice recording is complete, says

the Interstate Aviation Commit-tee, and work is continuing.■

Final assembly has shiftedfrom a static production line to atakt flow line and Airbus Heli-copters says it has implementedan integrated team to tackle is-sues earlier in the build process.

The first production aircraft isundergoing testing in Marignane,France, with qualification expect-ed during the summer.

Airbus Helicopters has 21 Pan-ther MBes on order – 11 for Indo-nesia and 10 for Mexico.

The latest variant of the long-running platform, the MBe gainsuprated 1,129shp (842kW)Turbomeca Arriel 2N engines,which offer a 15% powerincrease over the 2C models theyreplace and lift maximum

take-off weight by 200kg (441lb),to 4.5t.■


10/44

NEWS FOCUS


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subscribe to our fortnightly newsletter:

flightglobal.com/defencenewsletter

Despite trouble securing combat jet sales in 2015, con-cerns about an erosion in USmilitary exports due to its gov-ernment’s burdensome andoften sluggish approvals processmight be overstated.

That is according to AudeFleurant, director of theStockholm International PeaceResearch Institute’s (SIPRI) armsand military expenditure pro-gramme, who says the quality ofUS equipment and the diversity

of its customer base comparesfavourably against those of Rus-sia and China.

New SIPRI data shows globalmilitary spending trendingupward, with a 1% increase in2015 to $1.68 trillion – 2.3% ofglobal gross domestic product.

The US government processed$35 billion-worth of government-to-government foreign militarysales transactions in 2015 andanother $11.7 billion in arms asmilitary aid, according to the US

Defense Security CooperationAgency. That is higher than the$30 billion historical average,when excluding the $69.1 billionrecorded in 2012 on the back ofSaudi Arabia’s commitment for84 Boeing F-15SAs.

Big-ticket deals in 2015 includ-ed Japan’s decision to buy theNorthrop Grumman E-2DAdvanced Hawkeye, RQ-4 GlobalHawk and Bell Boeing V-22, andthe final Boeing C-17 sales toAustralia, Qatar and the United

Arab Emirates, SIPRI’s updated da-tabase shows. Saudi Arabia bought10 Sikorsky MH-60Rs and Spainfour General Atomics AeronauticalSystems MQ-9 Reapers.

However, US contractors andpotential recipient nations alikehave raised concerns about thetime it takes for fighter sales togain approval.

“I think there’s been an exag-geration of the erosion of the USdomination of the arms trade,”says Fleurant, speaking at the

Stimson Centre in WashingtonDC on 5 April. “Not only do I

think it is overstated, the US is byfar the largest exporter – and thecountry that receives most of itsexports [accounts for] only 10%.

“Russia is dependent on Indiafor its arms exports, by about30%. If India decides it doesn’twant to buy Russian weapons

anymore, Russian industry is invery big trouble. China is alsovery highly dependent on Africafor exports.”

However, in the competition forinternational fighter orders, par-ticularly in the Middle East, the

USA has more to worry aboutfrom European manufacturers,since lower procurementdomestically is forcing govern-ments to sweeten deals – typicallywith greater amounts of technolo-gy transfer – for the Dassault Ra-fale, Eurofighter Typhoon or SaabGripen, to maintain production

levels. Sweden finalised a con-tract for the Gripen NG with Brazil

in 2015, having offered to financethe deal and co-develop a twin-seat variant locally. Dassaultsealed export deals with Egyptand Qatar last year for the Rafale.

“The national procurement budgets are so tight right now;there’s not enough money,” says

Fleurant, “so their offset packagesare much bigger than what theUS is ready to offer, which is whythey’ve been met with a lot moresuccess recently.”

CONCERN

Kuwait recently reached anagreement with Italy for 28Typhoons. It had also signalledinterest in the Boeing F/A-18E/FSuper Hornet, but a deal is yet tomaterialise. Boeing expressedconcern last year that Kuwait

might back out unless the USgovernment’s approvals processmoves faster.

Lockheed Martin also findsitself in limbo as it attempts toprogress pending F-16 deals withPakistan and the UAE throughregulatory hoops. The F-16 pro-duction line in Fort Worth, Texas,has no more jets to build after thelast for Iraq in 2017.

Outsiders trying to enter themarket include South Koreawith its T-50 Golden Eagle, and

the Korea Aerospace IndustriesKF-X multirole fighter it has

begun developing in partner-ship with Indonesia and the as-sistance of Lockheed. Turkey isdeveloping the TFX air superi-ority fighter, and Japan is pursu-ing its first domestically pro-duced stealth aircraft based onthe Mitsubishi X-2 Shinshin

prototype. “I wouldn’t underes-timate what’s been going on inthese countries,” says Fleurant.

Despite economic troubles in itsdomestic market, Embraer’s SuperTucano continues to be an exportsuccess, having notched up sales toGhana, Honduras, Lebanon andMali in the last 12 months.

India, meanwhile, has notmade much progress on itsplanned fifth-generation fighterprogramme and has been strug-gling with military industrialisa-

tion since its independence.Fleurant notes China is strug-

gling with aircraft enginedevelopment and nuclear propul-sion for surface ships and subma-rines. “Propulsion seems to be anissue overall for the defenceindustry in China, but as long asthey keep funnelling money intoit, at some point they’re going tomanage it,” she says, adding thatthe quality of Chinese equipmentis getting better. “What they’retransferring now is not the crap-

py stuff they used to transfer inthe ’70s. Not any more.”■

SPENDING JAMES DREW WASHINGTON DC

US military exports not waning yetData from research institute SIPRI shows $35bn arms sales in 2015, although competition is heating up on the fighter front

C o m m o n w e a l t h o f A u

s t r a l i a

Significant overseas deals in 2015 included additional C-17s for the Royal Australian Air Force

“I think there’s been

an exaggeration of

the erosion of the US

domination of the

arms trade”AUDE FLEURANTDirector, SIPRI


11/44

NEWS FOCUS


Hi Fly A340 offeringzero- g experience AIR TRANSPORT P12

The big original equipmentmanufacturers are busier than

ever and the supply chain – in-cluding interiors companies – isstraining to keep up.

Earlier this year, Airbus chief

executive Fabrice Brégier took theunusual step of publicly namingand shaming a supplier – France’sZodiac – for being behind the air-framer’s failure to meet its 2015delivery target for the A350. Othertier one and two suppliers, whichmet shipping deadlines by awhisker, might have felt there butfor providence.

The fact that Airbus and Boe-ing plan to increase productioneven further between now andthe turn of the decade is good

news for the industry. But such arapid ramp-up brings challenges.Do suppliers invest heavily incapital equipment and hiring andtraining staff to ensure they re-main on programmes – taking ahit on short-term profits – or dothey hold back and reduce the

risk of being left with too muchcapacity if demand stutters?

As history has shown, it onlytakes a shock – a war, oil crisis,collapse in the Chinese economyor a credit crunch – for a previ-

ously buoyant market to fall.While no one has a mastery ofmacroeconomic future-proofing,Flightglobal’s Ascend consultan-cy has a record of drawing onwider economic patterns and in-dustry data to predict likely sce-narios. At a Flightglobal-hostedworkshop session at the AircraftInteriors Expo in Hamburg on 5April, the group’s head of marketanalysis, Chris Seymour, attempt-ed to do just that.

RISING CONFIDENCE Seymour noted that, on the sur-face, global passenger trafficgrowth remains robust, withIATA predicting a 6.9% increasethis year over 2015. After years offinancial turbulence, airlines gen-erally are in the black, with netprofits heading for a new recordin 2016. In addition, almost allother indicators, such as yieldsand load factors, are positive –with the exception of freight traf-fic growth, which has slowed.

This confidence has led tostrong orders. Although 2015 saw

a slight decline, 13,000 jets have been committed to over five years.

The airframers are workinghard to meet this demand, and jetdeliveries hit an all-time high in2015, at more than 1,100 aircraft.

Their combined backlogs are alsoat a record high, at more than14,000 units; representing morethan 60% of the installed fleet.Almost three in four aircraft onorder is a narrowbody.

Led by Airbus and Boeing, theindustry plans to raise output overthe next decade, with Ascendanalysis of announced productionrates indicating an increase tomore than 2,400 aircraft per year,from around 1,650 in 2016.

That works out at more than

700 additional aircraft per year by 2020 compared with today.Looked at from the supply chainpoint of view, Ascend reckons4,770 installed engines will beneeded by the turn of the decade,and 443,000 seats: 42% morethan in 2016.

However, Ascend’s medium-term delivery forecast for single-aisle aircraft – and those of manu-facturers – shows a gap beginningto widen from 2020 betweenplanned production and de-

mand. A similar pattern can bewitnessed for widebody aircraft.

Catch up with all the news and

analysis from Aircraft Interiors:

flightglobal.com/aix

Regional jet8%

Single-aisle

74% Twin-aisle

18%

JET AIRLINER BACKLOG*

*As of 1 March 2016

SOURCE: Flightglobal’s Fleets Analyzer

Total backlog: 14,200

ANALYSIS MURDO MORRISONHAMBURG

The ramp-up risks of booming industryUnprecedented backlogs – particularly for single-aisles – are driving production rates higher, but there could be a downside

Ascend reckons 4,770

installed engines will

be needed by 2021,

and 443,000 seats:

42% more than in 2016

A i r b u s

Airbus intends to raise monthly output of A320-family narrowbodies to 60 aircraft by 2019 across four different final assembly lines

While much can change be-tween now and the 2020s,Seymour points out that withouta higher than forecast rise intraffic to sustain increased pro-duction rates, something will

have to give.

RETIREMENT RATE

Lower aircraft productivity is onepossibility, but this would nothelp, as it would simply erodeairline profitability and their abil-ity to fund equipment. More like-ly is a rise in the rate of retire-ments as airlines use more oftheir new aircraft to replace –rather than complement – theirexisting inventory.■


12/44

AIR TRANSPORT


“Commercial operation ofzero-g flights under the status ofan airline company will be aworld premiere,” says theZurich-based business.

Hi Fly chief executive PauloMirpuri says the carrier brings“innovation, quality and safety”to the venture.

The jet involved is Maltese-reg-istered, having been transferred toa Hi Fly subsidiary. Under its pre-vious Portuguese registration, itsuffered a heavy landing at Dar-

win after a microburst encounterin February 2012.

In its new role it will be re-painted in a black livery.

For the industry’s most trusted and timely

aircraft reporting and forecasting, visit

flightglobal.com/fleetsanalyzer

Portuguese carrier Hi Fly is toprovide an Airbus A340-300for zero-gravity flights under aco-operation agreement withcommercial space firm Swiss

Space Systems.The aircraft (9H-TQM) is a

21-year-old airframe, powered byCFM International CFM56 en-gines, originally delivered to Sin-gapore Airlines.

Swiss Space Systems is pre-paring to conduct commercialzero-g flights in 2016-2017.Flights will typically involve 15parabolic cycles, each giving 20-25s periods of weightlessness,over a 90min duration.

Hi Fly will provide operational

and regulatory support to SwissSpace Systems.

TAP Portugal has been searchedas part of an investigation intoits acquisition of Brazilian mainte-nance company VEM.

The Portuguese flag carrier tookover the firm – known as Varig En-gineering and Maintenance –around 2006-2007, while the for-mer Brazilian operator Varig wasunder bankruptcy protection.

Portugal’s Ministerio Publico,part of the judiciary, says the attor-

ney general confirmed the search-es of TAP’s offices under a crimi-nal investigation procedure intothe acquisition of VEM. The com-pany was rebranded as TAP Main-tenance & Engineering Brazil.

The Ministerio Publico saysthe investigating authorities sus-pect corruption, laundering andfraud, as well as other criminalactivity. It has not given details.

TAP, which was privatised lastyear, has yet to respond to thePortuguese judiciary’s actions.■

Environmental advocacygroups are suing the USgovernment in an effort to forceregulators to set standards ongreenhouse gas emissions fromaircraft engines.

In a lawsuit dated 12 April, theCenter for Biological Diversityand Friends of the Earth asked aDistrict Court to direct theEnvironmental Protection Agen-cy (EPA) to determine whether ornot aircraft engine emissions con-tribute to pollution.

If the court rules in the groups’favour, they will argue that thiswould then require the agency toregulate the emissions under theUS Clean Air Act.

The US government has “daw-dled” for more than a decade inits efforts to regulate aircraft en-gine emissions, which accountfor 3% of the country’s total do-mestic greenhouse gas output,the groups say in their lawsuit.

In 2015, the EPA issued a pro-posed finding that linked aircraft

LEGAL

DAVID KAMINSKI-MORROW LONDON

TAP Portugal israided over its

VEM purchase

LAWSUIT JON HEMMERDINGER WASHINGTON DC

US environmental challenge to targetgreenhouse gas emissions by aircraft

CONTRACT DAVID KAMINSKI-MORROW LONDON

Hi Fly A340 offering zero- g experienceSwiss Space Systems pairs with Portuguese carrier to operate commercial flights with 20-25s periods of weightlessness

Aviation accounts

for 3% of nation’s

total emissions

engines with pollution, but thegroups say that the agency has es-timated a rule regulating aircraftengine emissions will not be fi-nalised until 2018 at the earliest.

The lawsuit follows the Febru-ary announcement from the In-ternational Civil Aviation Organi-zation that its Committee onAviation Environmental Protec-tion had recommended new air-craft emission standards.

But the claimants say ICAO’sproposals “would barely alter theindustry’s steeply-rising pollu-tion curve”.

Separately, a study publishedin the May 2016 issue of Trans-

portation Research concludesthat emission-curbing technolo-gies, such as blended-wing de-signs and cleaner fuels, have re-ceived lots of media attention buthave largely been abandoned.■

A i r T e a m I m a g e s

Former Singapore Airlines jet will be repainted with black livery


Swiss Space Systems is aimingto offer the flights at “the most af-fordable price” and claims theA340’s flight-control systems willgenerate “unprecedented accura-

cy” in the parabolic flight profiles.Previously released plans

show that Swiss Space Systemsintends to divide the jet into threezones accommodating around70-80 passengers. Prices rangefrom €2,000 ($2,260) in the “af-fordable” 40-person “Party Zone”located in the aft section of thefuselage, rising to €50,000 in the12-person “VIP Room”.

French company Novespaceoperates a similar programme ofzero-g flights with an A310, hav-

ing switched from its previousA300.■


13/44

AIR TRANSPORT


Tyre burst led togear failure AIR TRANSPORT P14

FLEET

Doha’s delight as carrier confirms launch status on -8 model

Qatar Airways has confirmed its

status as launch operator for the

Boeing 777-8, the re-engined

widebody expected to be deliveredafter 2020.

“We will be the launch customer

and the first recipient of those

airplanes,” Qatar chief executive

Akbar Al Baker said, speaking on 11

April at a route inauguration ceremo-

ny in Boston.

Last June, Al Baker said only thathe “hoped” to be the first customer

to take delivery of the type.

Qatar has ordered 10 777-8s and

50 -9s and it has also signed

options to potentially buy 40 more of

the series, according to information

from Flightglobal’s Fleets Analyzer

database.The 777X family is powered by GE

Aviation GE9X engines. The aircraft

will also feature longer, composite

wings with folding tips.■

GE Aviation has begun testingthe first full-scale GE9Xengine destined to power theBoeing 777-9, inaugurating atwo-year sequence of groundand flight tests required to obtainengine certification.

The first engine to testmilestone follows a five-yearseries of component- and rig-level evaluations on the biggestcommercial turbofan in history,featuring the largest inlet diame-ter, and bypass and compressor

pressure ratios.GE9X general manager Bill

Millhaem says “countlesshours” have been devoted toachieving the eventual transitionfrom rig tests to the full-scaletesting of the 100,000lb-thrust-class (445kN) engine.

GE has promised to deliverthe GE9X with a 10% fuel burnadvantage over the GE90, theeven more powerful, 115,000lb-thrust engine powering the777-300ER and 777 freighter.

The fuel efficiency is achievedpartly by increasing the ratio

bypassing the engine core from9:1 on the GE90 to 10:1 on the

GE9X and an overall pressureratio that rises by 50% over the

GE90, to 61:1.Flight tests of the GE9X are

due to begin next year, with cer-tification in 2018, supporting

service entry aboard the 777-9shortly before 2020.■

G E A v i a t i o n

GE Aviation completed assembly of the first engine during March

Qatar Airways’ fleet strategycould play a key role in aneffort by the Oneworld carrier tomake investments in twoairlines by the end of this year.

The airline’s chief executiveAkbar Al Baker has outlinedplans to expand the company’sownership interests in other air-lines beyond its existing 10%stake in BA and Iberia parentIAG and a prospective invest-ment in Italy’s Meridiana.

Since November, Al Baker has

reportedly expressed an interestin placing significant stakes inIndian low-cost carrier IndiGo aswell as Royal Air Maroc, alongwith expanding its existing stakein IAG.

Speaking on 11 April inBoston, Al Baker declined todiscuss specifics, but he didacknowledge a keen interest infurther acquisitions.

“We are in detailed negotia-tions with two airlines in whichwe plan to invest,” he says.

Al Baker also revealed that thefate of the Qatar operator’sBoeing 777-300ER fleet is part ofthe overarching investmentstrategy.

From 2020, Qatar plans to begin replacing those long-haultwinjets with the successor 777Xfamily, with firm orders for 50777-9s and 10 777-8s.

PROPULSION STEPHEN TRIMBLE WASHINGTON DC

GE9X powerplant startsfull-scale test campaign

“A lot of those [777Xs] will bereplacement airplanes,” he says.“They will not be growth.”

Qatar’s business strategyemphasises a youthful fleet, so

mid-life 777-300ERs will beremoved as new aircraft arrive.

Although sale on the openmarket could represent onemeans of disposal for thosewidebodies, Qatar appears tohave other plans.

“We will be retiring [those air-planes] or we will be puttingthem into companies we investin,” Al Baker says.

IAG subsidiary BritishAirways already owns a substan-tial 777-300ER fleet, but has

expressed interest in adding newmodels. Meridiana and RoyalAir Maroc also own all-Boeingfleets, but not yet any from the777 series. IndiGo, meanwhile,is an Airbus A320 operator.■

STRATEGYSTEPHEN TRIMBLE BOSTON

Qatar stakes 777s on investment planGulf carrier suggests proposed holdings in other airlines could offer avenue to dispose of older Boeing widebodies in fleet


Mid-life widebodies could be dispersed among partner companies


14/44

AIR TRANSPORT


Canadian investigators believe

vibration from a JazzAviation-operated BombardierQ400’s spinning tyre initiated amechanical sequence which ledto the starboard main gear col-lapsing on landing at Edmonton.

This in turn caused the propel-ler of the turboprop’s right-handengine to strike the runway,shearing all the blades, with frag-ments penetrating the cabin andinjuring three passengers.

The Transportation SafetyBoard of Canada says a starboard

gear tyre burst after hitting a hardobject during take-off fromCalgary on 6 November 2014.

The crew diverted toEdmonton and the inquiry saysaircraft C-GGBF touched down“very lightly” on runway 02.

But the contact of the wheelcaused the tyre to spin at arotational frequency that coin-cided with a natural harmonic ofthe main gear. The failure of thetyre had created an “unexpected

high rotational imbalance”, saysthe inquiry.

Tests showed that the vibrationcould affect signals to the main-gear’s proximity sensor, which ispart of the logic sequence fordeployment and retraction.

This misreading of the gear sta-tus on the aircraft was exacerbat-ed by the effects of the vibrationon the gear’s mechanical systems.The combination resulted in thestarboard main-gear’s collapsingwhile the Q400’s nose-gear wasstill off the ground.

Investigators state that, while

the fuselage adjacent to the pro-pellers is reinforced, this is toprotect against impact from iceshedding from the blades.

“It is not designed to stop por-tions of failed propeller compo-nents from entering the cabin,”the inquiry says.

Jazz took safety measures afterthe accident including discontin-uing the practice of using retread-ed main-gear tyres on its Q400s.It also amended procedures toreduce stresses on these tyres,

through avoidance of tyre-pivot,and changes to taxi techniques.

Investigators also point outthat vibration testing require-ments and criteria are relativelylimited. “If there are no specificrequirements for dynamic vibra-tion testing of components orcompleted airframes, there is arisk that similar or other aircraftsystems could fail during high-vibration conditions,” theinquiry says.■

SAFETYDAVID KAMINSKI-MORROW LONDON

Tyre burst led to gear failureJazz Q400 incident at Edmonton was initiated by subsequent vibration, investigators believe


Despite the damage, the turboprop was repaired and eventually returned to service last year

T r a n s p o r t a t i o n S a f e t y B o a r d o f C a n a d a

Mishap resulted in three injuries

For up-to-the-minute air transport news,

network and fleet information sign up at:

flightglobal.com/dashboard

Indonesian Aerospace haspushed back the first flight of itsN219 commuter aircraft by threemonths, to 10 August.

Programme manager BudiSampurno says components needto pass laboratory and system testsand be certificated safe for flight by June to meet the new schedule.

It is vital to meet that Augustdeadline for first flight if the man-ufacturer is to retain any hope ofachieving Indonesian type certifi-

cation by May 2017.Sampurno identifies three po-

tential challenges: failures duringtests, delays in component deliv-eries, and components not meet-ing certification standards.

Should there be a need to rede-sign components and conductnew tests, first flight will probably bedelayed to October, he says.

The N219 will be capable offulfilling commercial, military,and parapublic roles. Missionsinclude scheduled and chartered

airline operations, troop transport,search and rescue, cargo, and mar-itime surveillance.

Powered by two Pratt &Whitney Canada PT6A-42engines, it can operate up to480nm (889km) with 19 passen-gers; ferry range is 840nm. At itsmaximum take-off weight of7,030kg (15,500lb), it can departfrom a runway as short as 393m(1,290ft). Maximum speed is list-ed as 210kt (389km/h).■

DEVELOPMENT

FIRDAUS HASHIMSINGAPORE

Parts tests delaymaiden sortie of

N219 commuter

Aeroflot Group carrier Rossiyahas taken delivery of a Boeing747-400 bearing the revised andmodernised livery of the newly-consolidated airline.

Rossiya’s aircraft arrived fromrepainting in Dublin. The airlineis expanding its fleet with aircraftformerly operated by Transaero

before its collapse last year.The airline says, as part of the

Rebranded Rossiya takes first 747DELIVERY

revamp, aircraft will be namedafter Russian cities – the first 747will “naturally” be named afterthe carrier’s St Petersburg base.

Flightglobal’s Fleets Analyzerdatabase shows the aircraft(EI-XLE) is a GE Aviation CF6-powered airframe, produced in1999, which was originally deliv-

ered to Japan Airlines before beingtransferred to Transaero.

Rossiya’s operation is beingreinforced with the integration of

Aeroflot Group carriers Orenairand Donavia.

Repainting of the rest of thefleet will be carried out in

accordance with plannedmaintenance schedules.■

R o s s i y a

Former Transaero jumbo is powered by GE Aviation CF6 engines


15/44

AIR TRANSPORT


Ottawa to reviewdefence priorities

DEFENCE P16

NARROWBODIES

Avianca conversion bolsters A319neo’s modest orderbook

Colombian flag-carrier Avianca has

lifted the backlog for the re-engined

Airbus A319neo through a partial

conversion of last year’s order.

Avianca had ordered 17 of the

type in 2012 and added another pair

as part of a deal for 100 A320neo-

family jets in April 2015.

But the latest backlog data from

the airframer, covering the first quar-

ter, shows that the airline has

switched nine A320neos to the

smaller variant.

The change gives Avianca 28

A319neos and confirms the Latin

American operator as the largest

single customer for the type.

Airbus has sold only 60

A319neos out of a total of 4,510

orders for the A320neo family; 1.3%

of the total.

Aside from Avianca, the aircraft

has been selected by Frontier

Airlines, as well as an undisclosed

customer, plus private operators.

Elsewhere, the backlog figures

show that Taiwanese carrier

TransAsia Airways has halved its

order for A321neos. TransAsia had

ordered six of the type, powered by

Pratt & Whitney PW1100G engines,

and subsequently exercised options

on another six to give it a total of 12.

But Airbus’s first-quarter backlog

data includes a reduction of six

A321neos and shows that the num-

ber of aircraft for TransAsia has

fallen from 12 back to six.

Orders for the A321neo at the

end of March stood at 1,108 air-

craft: almost a quarter of all firm

A320neo-family jets.■

Reunion’s Air Austral has can-celled the pair of AirbusA380s it had on order, with theairframer maintaining its backlogfor the type through a deal fromEmirates Airline for two aircraft.

Air Austral had ordered thejets, powered by Engine Alliance

GP7200 powerplants, inNovember 2009.

It had conceived a high-densi-ty layout for the type with capac-ity exceeding 800 seats. The air-craft were supposed to have beendelivered two years ago.

But Air Austral had recentlysignalled that it was revising itsfleet plan and indicated that theorder would be abandoned infavour of other aircraft types.And Airbus’s backlog figures forthe first quarter of 2016, released

in early April, no longer includedthe Air Austral A380s.

But they featured an undis-closed order for two A380s,

signed on 31 March and subse-quently attributed to Emirates.The net effect is to maintain over-all A380 orders at 319, with anend-March backlog of 135.

Airbus’s March activityincluded four A330s for itsdefence division, plus Czech

Airlines’ switch of its A320 orderto A320neos.

But business over the quarterhas been much quieter than lastyear, when the airframer bookedmore than 100 net aircraft in thefirst three months.

Airbus lists net orders for just

10 aircraft for the January-March2016 period, as changes and can-cellations wiped out most of the32 gross orders.

It also lagged behind last year’sdelivery figures, handing over125 aircraft compared with theprevious level of 134.■

BACKLOGDAVID KAMINSKI-MORROW

LONDON

Emirates steps in for cancelled A380sGulf carrier adds to already sizeable commitment for double-deck type as Air Austral culls its order for high-density model

A i r b u s

Airbus has maintained its backlog for the superjumbo at 135, with a total of 319 orders; Dubai-based airline accounts for the majority

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16/44

DEFENCE


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SAFETY

Modification flaws behind fire on Canadian Hercules tanker

Jordan has amended a produc-tion order with Pilatus for a

new fleet of turboprop trainers,switching its commitment fromthe PC-9M to the PC-21.

In August 2015, Pilatusreceived a contract to delivernine PC-9Ms to the Royal Jordanian Air Force, but recently

signed an agreement to insteadprovide eight of the more capable

P i l a t u s

Nation will become seventh operator of turboprop-powered trainer

PC-21, chief executive OscarSchwenk told the Swiss newspa-per Neue Luzerner Zeitung .Deliveries were originally due tostart in January 2017.

The PC-21 is currentlyoperated by the air forces ofQatar, Saudi Arabia, Singapore,Switzerland and the United Arab

Emirates, and the trainer is alsoon order for Australia.■

Excessive chafing and arcing

between an auxiliary hydraulic line

and a power cable led to a fire which

caused irreperable damage to a

Royal Canadian Air Force Lockheed

Martin C-130H at NAS Key West in

Florida on 21 February 2012, a flight

safety report has confirmed.

Configured for in-flight refuelling,

the Hercules was carrying 6,800kg

(15,000lb) of fuel in a cargo bay tank

when the incident occurred during a

touch-and-go exercise. A “jet-like

flame” shot across the cargo ramp

floor and erupted into a fireball.

The transport had reached only

10ft, and its pilot was able to land

immediately. The crew escaped with

one minor injury, but the rear of the

aircraft was badly damaged in the

3min it took for fire crews to respond.

The chafed stainless steel outer

braid of a hydraulic flex hose had con-

tacted electrical wires powering an

active hydraulic pump motor, leading

to arcing and ignition, the report says.

In 2002, an update had added two

ground-test connections to the

C-130’s auxiliary hydraulic system.

“Deficiencies in the modification

and its approval process, as well as

its installation and in-service mainte-

nance practices, were directly causal

to the fire,” the report adds.

Work to fix the flaw on additional

aircraft will be completed this year.■

Canada’s government haslaunched the nation’s largest

defence policy review in “over 20years”, as it considers if andwhen to withdraw from theLockheed Martin F-35 JointStrike Fighter programme.

Defence minister Harjit Sajjanhas appointed a four-memberadvisory panel to oversee the

review, which will seek inputfrom citizens, experts, parliamen-tarians, allies and the nation’ssecurity partner, the USA.

When released in early 2017,the new policy will influenceeverything from the role of theCanadian armed forces in opera-tions at home and abroad, toresourcing and capabilityrequirements. Sajjan will launch

POLICY JAMES DREW WASHINGTON DC

Ottawa to reviewdefence prioritiesTrudeau government will commence cross-country processto discuss military balance, and potential F-35 withdrawal

PC-21 switch confirmed for JordanFLEETCRAIG HOYLE LONDON

the process in Vancouver on 27April, followed by “cross-countryroundtable meetings” in Toronto,Vancouver, Yellowknife, Edmon-ton, Montreal and Halifax, “end-ing in July”.

The review is, however, inde-pendent from the government’splan to hold a competition toreplace the Royal Canadian Air

Force’s Boeing CF-18s.In the run-up to its election

victory late last year, the Liberalgovernment led by primeminister Justin Trudeau said itwould ditch a planned acquisi-tion of 65 F-35As – a commit-ment estimated at $45.8 billionover a 42-year life cycle – and“immediately” launch an openfighter competition.

“The process to replace theCF-18s is just beginning,” Sajjan’soffice says. “We have only beenin government for a few months,and are making good progress onthis file.”

That process, led by the minis-ter of public services and pro-curement in partnership with the

Department of National Defence,will design a procurement pro-cess “for an aircraft that matchesCanada’s defence needs”.

“We are committed to ensuringthat manufacturing contracts forwhichever aircraft is chosen willgo to Canadian companies,” thedefence minister’s office says.“Industrial benefits to Canadiancompanies will be part of thedecision-making process.” It has

not specified whether it wantsthe winning fighter to be assembled in the country.

“The government is commit-ted to keeping its campaignpromises,” Sajjan’s office says,adding: “there will be an openand transparent process.”

Canada’s interest in the F-35dates back to 1997. It formallyjoined the development pro-gramme in 2002, before its gov-ernment of the day selected theF-35A in 2009.■

R o y a l C a n a d i a n

A i r F o r c e

Competition plan to replace air force’s CF-18s remains in place


17/44

DEFENCE


Dutch KDC-10approval key toF-35 deployment

DEFENCE P19

REQUIREMENT

Warthog successor plan could form part of 2018-2022 budget

A draft requirement document that

articulates the US Air Force’s need

for a new attack aircraft optimised

for close air support (CAS) missions

is being circulated within the

Department of Defense, ahead of a

review “this spring”.

Lt Gen James Holmes, deputy

chief of staff for strategic plans and

requirements says, if approved by

the USAF chief of staff, a future CAS

platform that could replace the

Fairchild Republic A-10 Warthog will

be considered by a planning choices

panel this year. This could lead to

inclusion in its five-year budget plan

for fiscal years 2018-2022.

Lockheed Martin’s F-35 will be

trialled in the CAS role to identify

potential shortcomings, with a “fly-

off” between it and the A-10 in

FY2018 or FY2019. Under current

plans, the USAF will draw down the

latter between 2018 and 2021.

Holmes points to potential alter-

natives like the Embraer/Sierra

Nevada A-29 Super Tucano or

Beechcraft AT-6 Wolverine turbo-

props, the industry-funded Textron

AirLand Scorpion, or light attack

versions of candidates for the

USAF’s T-X trainer contest.

Some funding has been

apportioned for “AT-X studies”, while

a new “A-X” aircraft is also believed

to be under consideration.■

U S A

i r F o r c e

Competitors are vying to replace the Fairchild Republic A-10 in delivering close air support mission

The US Air Force will begin aprototyping and experimenta-tion campaign related to new airsuperiority technologies, afterconcluding there is no next-gener-ation fighter able to single-hand-edly evade and counter the sur-face-to-air, air-to-air and otherthreats springing up worldwide.

Lt Gen James Holmes, USAFdeputy chief of staff for strategicplans and requirements, says histeam is moving away from termslike “fighter” and “next-genera-

tion” and will look at differentways of conducting air warfare.

This will involve parallel tech-nology developments, such as onnew propulsion systems, air-frames, directed energy weaponsand hypersonic missiles, to devel-op a “family of systems”, includ-ing longer-range, higher-payloadplatforms to launch volleys of

STRATEGY JAMES DREW WASHINGTON DC

USAF looks beyond generational shiftAir superiority study concludes that future combat will require family of systems, rather than lengthy wait for F-X fighter

weapons at targets from stand-offdistances, and others to performdirect attacks.

Holmes wants an “operational-ly-representative configuration” ofthis future air superiority network by 2025, and notes the service hasdelayed its F-X – or Next-Generation Air Dominance – anal-ysis of alternatives by a year, toavoid ending up with require-ments for another fighter.

“F-X would have been mostlikely a sixth-generation fighter

and would have had a 20- or 30-year development programme,”Holmes told an Air ForceAssociation forum in WashingtonDC on 7 April. “What we want totry to do is solve the problem fast-er than that, by looking across theoptions and building what we’recapable of building, instead ofwaiting for the next generation.”

For the past year, an air force“enterprise capability collabora-tion team” has processed over1,500 submissions from 14 organi-sations on 220 initiatives relatedto achieving air superiority in2030. Of those, almost half pro-posed new equipment, while oth-ers pushed the modernisation ofhardware or new battle concepts.

The USAF has concluded onlya highly networked collection ofweapon systems will be capableof tackling future threats: ratherthan one or two new platformswith long development cycles.

Holmes notes the LockheedMartin F-35 is not outdated butthat technology demands are socomplex “it took longer than wehoped to achieve”.

“‘Exquisite’ capabilities endedup being late-to-need,” adds chiefof strategic planning and integra-

tion Col Alex Grynkewich, wholed the service’s Air Superiority2030 effort.

Grynkewich says range andpayload are critical, but somestudies show speed, manoeuvra- bility and some level of low-observable shaping or stealth havea place, along with automationand human-machine teaming.

Holmes says a meeting will beconvened with US Air ForceMateriel Command leadershipnext month to examine ways of

moving faster through acquisition,with the service also to involverapid acquisition organisations.

Money has been included inthe USAF’s fiscal year 2017 budg-et to begin advanced prototypingefforts, while some members ofthe family of systems are alreadyunder development or beingmatured. Planning chiefs have notruled out building derivatives ofexisting or in-development air-craft, while modest investmentswill be made to upgrade legacy

fighters, and to modernise theLockheed F-22.■

U S A

i r F o r c e

“Exquisite” technology demands have delayed readiness of F-35


18/44

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DEFENCE


GlobetrottingFalcon 8X makesShanghai debut

SHOW REPORT P20

Boeing’s plan to deliver 16,rather than 14, operational

KC-46 Pegasus tankers within asix-month period has beenlabelled “optimistic” in a state-

ment by the US GovernmentAccountability Office (GAO).

Setbacks encountered duringtesting in 2014 and 2015 havealready delayed the US govern-ment’s low-rate initial production(LRIP) decision by nine months,to May, but the GAO reports that afive-month operational testingphase previously due to begin thismonth will now not start untilMay 2017.

“Boeing will not be able to com-plete development activities until

June 2018; five months later thanrequired,” the watchdog says in itsannual appraisal of the US AirForce tanker programme.

The GAO quotes governmenttest officials as saying thatBoeing’s drive toward having 18aircraft ready to meet a contractu-al “required assets available”

milestone is “optimistic”, andcarries four months of “schedulerisk”. That does not account forrecently acknowledged troubleswith boom refuelling of theBoeing C-17 transport.

“If the air force exercises itsoptions for production lots oneand two, any future delays mayaffect Boeing’s ability to deliver all18 operational aircraft by August2017,” the GAO says. However, itadds: “that risk is being measuredin months, rather than years.”

The 18-unit total had beenexpected to include the pro-gramme’s four development air-craft, brought up to an operational

standard, plus 14 LRIP examples.However, it will now compriseonly two of the test aircraft. Withdeliveries to occur before the endof operational testing, Boeing will

be financially responsible for anylate design changes or fixes.

COST RISK

Boeing’s fixed-price developmentcontract caps the US govern-ment’s liability at $4.9 billion. Asof December 2015, the manufac-turer and the USAF programmeoffice “estimated that Boeingwould incur additional costs tocomplete development of the air-craft of about $769 million and$1.4 billion, respectively,” the

GAO says.The manufacturer is also self-

funding construction of the first batch of operational tankers in

anticipation of a contract signa-ture, and opening a second com-pletions centre to modify 767-2Cfreighters to the military standard.

According to the GAO, Boeing

has resolved most of the issuesencountered to date, and it reportsthat the expected cost of KC-46development, production andassociated military constructionwork has come down by 7%; from$51.7 billion to $48.2 billion.

There are still problems, how-ever, with certifying the aircraft’scenterline drogue system andwing aerial refueling pods. Theseshould have been ready for USFederal Aviation Administrationcertification in 2014, but are now

not expected to secure approvaluntil July 2017, because the sup-plier did not follow FAA process-es during construction.■

The Royal Netherlands AirForce’s McDonnell DouglasKDC-10 tankers have been cer-tificated to refuel the LockheedMartin F-35, following flight tri-als conducted from EdwardsAFB in California. One of theservice’s two tankers – tail number 264 – refuelled the fifth-generation Lightning II for thefirst time on 31 March.

On 7 April, the Dutchdefence ministry announcedthat one of its two 323 Sqn-

U S A

i r F o r c e

Combination is planned to cross the Atlantic in late May or June

PROGRAMME JAMES DREW WASHINGTON DC

GAO questions Pegasus delivery planWatchdog calls Boeing’s schedule ‘optimistic’, citing testing hitches that will extend its development activities into 2018

operated F-35As – based atEdwards AFB in support of ini-tial operational test and evalua-tion of the type – will visit theNetherlands in late May or June,probably accompanied by aKDC-10. Demonstration flightsare planned at its Leeuwardenand Volkel air bases during thethree-week deployment.

The Netherlands plans toacquire an operational fleet of 37F-35s, with the first eight due toarrive in-country by 2019.■

TESTING

Dutch KDC-10 approvalkey to F-35 deployment

Downlo ad t he 2016Wor ld A i r Forces Repor t

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IN ASSOCIATION WITH


20/44


SHOWREPORT

Although the annual Asia Business Aviation Conference& Exhibition (ABACE) event in Shanghai is ostensiblyabout the whole region, the only country one hears

discussed is China. This year’s show featured a numberof modest announcements around charter operatorsand maintenance organisations, but no high-profileorders. Nonetheless, despite the recent doldrumsexperienced by the Chinese business jet market – ow-ing to a slowing economy and an anti-corruption drive– the big OEMs were out in force. They are not happywith the current state of affairs, but patiently awaitrenewed growth in what could one day be the sector’slargest single market. Greg Waldron reports

ABACE 2016

R E X / S h u t t e r s t o c k

Keep up to date with the latest news and

analysis from the business aviation sector:

flightglobal.com/bizav

Boeing is confident of sellingone to three BBJ Max aircraft

in China every year, following agood year for orders for the airlin-

er-derived jets in the country.“We’ve sold three BBJ Maxes

into China,” says DavidLongridge, president of BoeingBusiness Jets. “That’s under athird of the total number ofMaxes we’ve sold, which is 10. Iwould say interest in China ishigh. We would be happy to sellone to three airplanes a year – Idon’t think that’s unreasonable.”

Longridge, who spoke to FlightInternational at Boeing’s ABACEchalet, says the range of the BBJ

Max 8 is around 6,500nm(12,000km) – suitable for mis-sions from major Chinese cities toCalifornia or the US West Coast,with the aircraft carrying 10-12passengers.

Boeing borrowed a Chinesecustomer’s current-generationBBJ1 to display at the show’s staticpark. Because range is the fore-most consideration for this par-ticular aircraft, it has a basic cabin,saving weight and boosting range.

Longridge also took a swipe at

what he feels is a questionablesales tactic in the industry.

“We have a good reputation de-livering the range we promise inour brochures,” he says. “Wedon’t want people to be disap-

pointed. We get some customerswho have been disappointed byother manufacturers because theaircraft did not do what waspromised. There is nothing moreirritating than spending a largesum of money and not being ableto fly non-stop between the twocities you need to fly between.”

Longridge adds that Boeing hasnot received much interest in its2015 proposal for a passenger/combi version of the BBJ 737-700C, similar to the US Navy’s

C-40 Clipper. Announced atABACE last year, the proposedvariant would have had a largecargo door just behind the left-side forward door.

“We’re not seeing great de-mand for it,” says Longridge.“We’re seeing more demand for astraight BBJ Max 8. We wanted tomake it clear that we could dothings with our aircraft and werewilling to look at different vari-ants for what we thought would be a demand specifically in the

Chinese market. It didn’t materi-alise, no harm done.”■

OUTLOOK

Boeing bullish onBBJ Max demandAirframer confident that China will become strong market forits corporate airliners after three sales into country last year

Dassault’s developmental Fal-con 8X made its debut ap-

pearance at the show.The aircraft on display, bearing

the registration F-WWQC, is thethird 8X produced. It has a fullcabin installed and was in Shang-hai as part of a world tour, prior

to service entry later in 2016.So far, the ultra-long-range tri-

jet has just one buyer in China,

but Dassault Falcon senior vice-president international sales Jean-Michel Jacob says Chinesecustomers prefer to see a jet be-fore buying, which is why it brought the 8X to the show, de-spite the ongoing certificationcampaign. “It was hard to get the

aircraft from testing, but we havevery high expectations for the 8Xin China,” he says.■

Third test

aircraft has

full cabin

installed

D a s s a u l t A v i a t i o n

Chinese business jet brokerCbajet is seeing strong growth

for pre-owned aircraft in China, as buyers become more sophisticat-ed about selecting aircraft.

“When business jets started toappear in China, buyers wouldopt for the business jet version ofa brand-new Mercedes-Benz or

BMW,” says Jason Liao, chief ex-ecutive and founder of Cbajet.

Now Liao observes a maturingin the market, with users becom-ing more sophisticated.

He adds that Chinese ownerswant customised cabins – invari-ably installed overseas becausethe Civil Aviation Administrationof China (CAAC) lacks experi-ence certificating private jets.

“This will restrict China’s com-pletions business,” he says.■

SALES

Maturing market buoys Cbajet

PROMOTION

Globetrotting Falcon 8Xmakes Shanghai debut


21/44


DA62 is off to aflying startBUSINESS AVIATION P22

ABACE 2016SHOW REPORT

Textron Aviation is enjoyingsuccess with its Shijiazhuangfactory for the Cessna Caravan208 single-engined turboprop,with the type attaining accept-ance in the Chinese market.

Bill Schultz, manager of Tex-tron Aviation in China, says thereare about 77 Caravans operatingin the country, of which 30 wereproduced in Shijiazhuang.

The factory is run as a jointventure between Textron andAVIC. Schultz says working with

the state-owned airframer has al-lowed for far greater access to themarket, owing to its deep connec-tions across China.

Documents

Flight International - April 19, 2016.pdf