Flash Flood Forecasting in

Israel

Alissa Razy, Forecaster

Israel Meteorological Service

WGCEF, Dublin Ireland, Sept. 2019

Three main climate zones

small catchments in the Dead Sea region

Israel Water Authority (2012) The Natural Water Resources Between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River. The Hydrological Service, Jerusalem.

Flash Flood Forecasts

Occasional showers and isolated TS in most

regions

Risk of flash floods in the eastern and southern

wadis (river bed)

forecast issued

forecast valid

forecast issued Isolated showers and TS in most regions

Risk of flash floods in the eastern and southern

wadis (river bed)

forecast valid

High risk of flash floods in the eastern and

southern wadis 25/04 00:00-27/04 16:00

Flash Flood Watch/Warning

watch issued

warning issued (update) Risk of flash floods in the eastern and

southern wadis 26/04 09:00-26/04 19:00

nakeb.co.il (bizmen)

Nahal Tzafit

What Went Wrong?

• Official authority (warnings)

• Laws and regulations

• No hydrometeorologists or hydrology experts

• Low-resolution warnings

Flash Flood Forecasts

Flash Flood Warnings

Risk of flash floods in the eastern and

southern wadis 26/04 09:00-26/04 19:00

Israel Water Authority (2012) The Natural Water Resources Between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River. The Hydrological Service, Jerusalem.

Flash Flood Event

Flash Flood Event

Precipitation Forecasts

Precipitation Forecasts

• The Hydrological Service model

– Meteorology (QPF)

– Flow rate (river beds)

Hydrometeorology

floods.online

Hydrometeorology

• The Hydrological Service model

– Meteorology (QPF)

– Flow rate (river beds)

• Flood forecasts produced “automatically”

– confusion!

Hydrometeorology

• National flood prediction centre

– National Emergency Management Authority

(NEMA)

– National Security Council

– Location: IMS

– Organization: the Israel Water Authority & IMS

– 3-5 hydrometeorologists (one hired so far)

The Future of Flash Flood Forecasts

• develop new high-res model + verification

• establish collaboration & division of labour

– collaborate on general forecast

– flood forecast

– watches & warnings

– forecast disagreement – course of action?

– no hydrometeorologist (nights, weekends, holidays)

(Future) National Flood Prediction Centre

Ayala Tours

Forecast process

Analysis and objective numerical forecasts

Hydrological

forecasters

Website

Dashboard system

Hydrological models

Emergency response

clients Forecasting and monitoring rain

General public

Rain forecast

Decision making

operational forecasters

• training to begin 2019-2020

rainy season

• 2020-2021 operational?

(Future) National Flood Prediction Centre

ekeidar Creative Commons Licence

Thank you for your attention!