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NORD/LB Fixed Income Research Page 1 of 14 Current market environment Issues and market volume in Q1 2016 Analyst: Jörg N. Kuypers Good start to 2016 Average number of tranches rises further up to six maturity bands Based on the issuance volume observed on our database, following on from a record year in 2015, the primary market for German Schuldschein Darlehen (Corporate Schuldschein Darlehen - CSSD) has already recorded another successful first quarter in Q1 2016. According to the information on our database, the issuance volume generated from CSSD comes to EUR 5.7bn (Q1 2015: EUR 5.0bn) as at 31 March 2016, which equates to an increase of 13.9%. The volume is spread across 20 transactions in total. By way of comparison, there were 22 deals contributing to a total volume of EUR 5.0bn in the first quarter of 2015. The level is down by almost 26% on the last quarter of 2015; however, with 36 transactions or a placed nominal of EUR 7.2bn, the fourth quarter of the past year was the strongest issuance period and also made the biggest contribution to the success of the previous calendar year. The final quarter of the year is traditionally regarded as very strong in terms of new issues. Looking back, it is clear that Q4 2015 was also the strongest period in the primary market since Q2 2008 with an issuance volume of EUR 6.6bn. The average number of tranches rose to 4.6 in Q1 2016 (Q1 2015: 3.7), which is also attributable to a relatively large number of transactions with up to six different maturity bands as well as alternative coupons. Notably, an average issuance volume of EUR 283m per transaction was achieved in the last three months, which is another considerable rise on the figure in the previous quarter of EUR 211m, which itself clearly exceeded the historical average of a little over EUR 150m. In relation to the average issuance amount per CSSD, this is the highest volume on record by far, with the exception of the first quarter of 2008 (the top year for these averages) when the figure reached EUR 333m. Standardised to a single tranche, we estimate the issuance volume to be virtually unchanged on the first quarter of the previous year at EUR 62m (Q1 2015: EUR 61m). Fixed Income Research Newsletter Schuldscheindarlehen 1st Quarter 2016 26. April 2016

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Page 1: Fixed Income Research Newsletter SchuldscheindarlehenNewsletter Schuldscheindarlehen 26. April 2016 1st Quarter NORD/LB Fixed Income Research Page 1 of 14 Current market environment

Newsletter Schuldscheindarlehen 26. April 2016

NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

Page 1 of 14

Current market environment

Issues and market volume in Q1 2016

Analyst:

Jörg N. Kuypers

Good start to 2016

Average number of tranches

rises further – up to six

maturity bands

Based on the issuance volume observed on our database, following on

from a record year in 2015, the primary market for German Schuldschein

Darlehen (Corporate Schuldschein Darlehen - CSSD) has already

recorded another successful first quarter in Q1 2016. According to the

information on our database, the issuance volume generated from CSSD

comes to EUR 5.7bn (Q1 2015: EUR 5.0bn) as at 31 March 2016, which

equates to an increase of 13.9%. The volume is spread across 20

transactions in total. By way of comparison, there were 22 deals

contributing to a total volume of EUR 5.0bn in the first quarter of 2015. The

level is down by almost 26% on the last quarter of 2015; however, with 36

transactions or a placed nominal of EUR 7.2bn, the fourth quarter of the

past year was the strongest issuance period and also made the biggest

contribution to the success of the previous calendar year. The final quarter

of the year is traditionally regarded as very strong in terms of new issues.

Looking back, it is clear that Q4 2015 was also the strongest period in the

primary market since Q2 2008 with an issuance volume of EUR 6.6bn.

The average number of tranches rose to 4.6 in Q1 2016 (Q1 2015: 3.7),

which is also attributable to a relatively large number of transactions with

up to six different maturity bands as well as alternative coupons. Notably,

an average issuance volume of EUR 283m per transaction was achieved

in the last three months, which is another considerable rise on the figure in

the previous quarter of EUR 211m, which itself clearly exceeded the

historical average of a little over EUR 150m. In relation to the average

issuance amount per CSSD, this is the highest volume on record by far,

with the exception of the first quarter of 2008 (the top year for these

averages) when the figure reached EUR 333m. Standardised to a single

tranche, we estimate the issuance volume to be virtually unchanged on the

first quarter of the previous year at EUR 62m (Q1 2015: EUR 61m).

Fixed Income Research

Newsletter Schuldscheindarlehen 1st Quarter 2016 • 26. April 2016

Page 2: Fixed Income Research Newsletter SchuldscheindarlehenNewsletter Schuldscheindarlehen 26. April 2016 1st Quarter NORD/LB Fixed Income Research Page 1 of 14 Current market environment

Newsletter Schuldscheindarlehen 26. April 2016

NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

Page 2 of 14

Issuance volumes and number of transactions since 2008

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

Nu

mb

er

of

iss

ue

s

Iss

ua

nc

e V

olu

me

(in

EU

R m

)

Source: NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

Q1 2016 - market sentiment

Although there was no substantial improvement in (macro) economic

conditions in the first quarter of 2016, there were some tangible signs from

China at least of a recovery trend with the highest export figures for a year.

Whether this can halt the economic slowdown in emerging countries

remains to be seen. This will not essentially change anything regarding the

notable recession in Russia and there has been no let up in the political

risks in the Eurozone. A potential Brexit and its repercussions, in

particular, are increasingly being perceived as a sword of Damocles,

posing risks not just for Europe, but also for the global economy. There

had already been profit revisions by companies in the last quarter and

these risks are certainly not having a positive influence on the first

revisions of earning figures this year, or on market sentiment in general.

Some prices on international commodity markets have experienced a

rebound, as can be seen for instance in the recent strong demand for iron

ore, copper and oil, which hit a 12-year low in January, but then rose by

30% within 2 months near to its high for the year. Nevertheless,

commodity indices remain low in parts, which means that primarily

companies from the "basic resources" sector in addition to other cyclical

sectors remain under heavy pressure.

In addition to these developments, the leverages at various European

corporates (large and mid-caps) have risen because of M&A activities,

albeit not to the same extent as at their US counterparts. On the iTraxx

Europe, spreads on 5Y-CDS, just like those on cash bonds had widened

significantly in such an increasingly risk averse market sentiment, are

meanwhile once again exactly in line with those at the start of 2016. The

same is true of the Crossover, which has tightened by a third in the space

of a month. With this positive momentum, due in part to the continuing

expansionary monetary policy of leading central banks, it remains to be

seen how the CSPP, which starts in June 2016, will affect credit spreads.

However, the market for CSSD will at most only be indirectly affected by

this programme through second round effects. Presently, we are of the

opinion that spread tightening for the cash bonds eligible for the CSPP will

be more pronounced than on synthetic credits.

Page 3: Fixed Income Research Newsletter SchuldscheindarlehenNewsletter Schuldscheindarlehen 26. April 2016 1st Quarter NORD/LB Fixed Income Research Page 1 of 14 Current market environment

Newsletter Schuldscheindarlehen 26. April 2016

NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

Page 3 of 14

Size distribution of CSSD in Q1/2016 (number-weighted by tranche)

Maturity distribution of CSSD in Q1/2016 (number-weighted by tranche)

Source: NORD/LB Fixed Income Research Source: NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

More than 4/5 of CSSD have

volumes over EUR 200m;

maturity bands between 6 and 8

years as well as 4 and 5 years

were most in demand

Trend towards longer maturities

confirmed

In number-weighted terms, at 42.4% the vast majority of transactions in Q1

2016 were above the EUR 200m threshold and around 27% were

attributable to the EUR 40m to 80m range, while approximately one sixth of

the issues were between EUR 80m and 200m, with the final seventh below

EUR 40m. Following the Schuldschein issue by Württemberg-based

automotive supplier Mann+Hummel in October 2015 and the preceding

issue from ZF Friedrichshafen (also automotive) in January 2015, the billion

threshold for a transaction was exceeded once again in Q1 2016 with a

Schuldschein from Hofer Financial Services GmbH in the amount of EUR

1.6bn and a EUR 1.1bn CSSD from Porsche AG. The CSSD from Porsche

was the largest the company has placed to date and is intended to serve as

funding for a bond that matured in February this year as well as an

investment plans, relating to e-mobility for instance. Often the funding of

acquisitions, as in the case of Mann+Hummel for example, is one of the key

factors behind the rapid growth in the CSSD market.

The other large issues in the first three months of the year are as follows:

Heidelberg Cement AG: EUR 625m for the part funding of the

acquisition of Italcementi,

Otto Bock Holding GmbH & Co. KG: EUR 600m,

freenet AG: EUR 560m to service a corporate bond that matures

this month and to create financial leeway for further growth.

Looking at maturities (comparative figures for Q4 2015 in brackets), the

statistical consolidation at maturity bands between 4 and 8 years is

strengthening. Among the CSSD issued, in number-weighted terms, a good

third (46%) of tranches fall into the 4 to 5 years maturity band and as much

as over 40% (30%) into the 6 to 8 years and 9.8% (6%) into the up to 3

years maturity band, with 12% (15%) in the 9 to 10 years band and finally

42,4%

27,2%

16,3%

14,1%

above € 200 mln € 40 - 80 mln

€ 80 - 200 mln up to € 40 mln

9,8%

35,9%

40,2%

12,0%

2,2%

up to 3 years 4 to 5 years 6 to 8 years

9 to 10 years longer than 10 years

Page 4: Fixed Income Research Newsletter SchuldscheindarlehenNewsletter Schuldscheindarlehen 26. April 2016 1st Quarter NORD/LB Fixed Income Research Page 1 of 14 Current market environment

Newsletter Schuldscheindarlehen 26. April 2016

NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

Page 4 of 14

2.2% (3%) into the longer than 10 years band. In our opinion, the trend

towards longer maturities is partly due to issuers' expectations that capital

market interest rates will rise in the medium term (when ECB's QE ends in

March 2017), as well as to rising credit spreads in the short term in light of

the volatile market environment (and thus higher funding costs overall). The

search for yield is also driving institutional investors in particular into longer

residual maturities.

Motives from issuers' and

investors' perspectives

Issuers' excellent credit quality

High sector granularity

For investors who pursue a buy-and-hold strategy, the CSSD has become a

useful, complementary asset class. Financial accounting rules envisage

measurement at amortised cost (i.e. no mark-to-market measurement) for

plain vanilla CSSD. Investors' income statements therefore remain

unaffected by interim price falls, which reduces the range of fluctuation in

the income statement. However, the CSSD market as a whole has reached

a volume whereby its low transparency is beneficial yet the lack of liquidity

on the secondary market can also be viewed critically. However, at present

we cannot establish whether investors demand a premium priced above the

credit risk in return for accepting a higher liquidity risk. The pressure to

reinvest from institutional investors could also be boosting demand in the

direction of HY issuers (both externally rated and because of indicative

spread levels). As before, the persistently high credit quality in the CSSD

market, which corresponds to the low number of credit events, is striking in

this context. We attribute this primarily to the fact that many SMEs in

Germany and core Europe are market leaders in their niche sectors and

that generally speaking, high sales do not go hand in hand with impeccable

credit ratings.

Diversification in Q1 2016 was high overall. We also continue to expect

debut issues from some sectors, which will help broaden the market.

Naturally the CSSD market remains dominated by traditional SMEs from

German-speaking countries. 34.8% of CSSDs (32 tranches) are allocated to

the "Industrials" sector. The remaining 60 tranches are spread across six

sectors. The other tranches are distributed across the following sectors:

"Consumer, Non-cyclical" (23 tranches), "Consumer, Cyclical" (22),

"Financial" (6), "Communications" (5) and "Basic Materials" (2) as well as

"Government" (2). With Hofer Financial Services GmbH and Heidelberg

Cement AG, the largest and third largest transactions in the first quarter

stem from the Industrial sector, while the second largest transaction,

Porsche, is in the Consumer, Cyclical sector. The fourth largest transaction

was issued by freenet, which is in the Communications sector.

Page 5: Fixed Income Research Newsletter SchuldscheindarlehenNewsletter Schuldscheindarlehen 26. April 2016 1st Quarter NORD/LB Fixed Income Research Page 1 of 14 Current market environment

Newsletter Schuldscheindarlehen 26. April 2016

NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

Page 5 of 14

Sector allocation of CSSD transactions in Q1/2016 Origin of issuers of CSSD transaction in Q1/2016

Source: NORD/LB Fixed Income Research Source: NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

German-speaking issuers

dominate the market

Market becoming more

international

CSSD grants independence

from the traditional credit

market

Since the beginning of the financial crisis, SMEs in Germany have

benefited from a marked increase in demand for bonded loans, and the

same applies to the rest of Europe. This is true of both financial investors

and companies and banks, which are searching for new sources of income

because of the increasing regulatory pressure in the finance industry

(Basel III capital requirements).

In Q1 2016, of 92 tranches, 69 tranches came "directly" from Germany and

a further 4 were from German-speaking countries, which means the DACH

region accounted for over 79% of the tranches. The remaining 19 tranches

were from Finland (9), France (6), and the USA (4). We believe that the

growing internationalisation of the CSSD market can mainly be attributed to

the following reasons. The PP market in Germany is by far the most

professionally organised in its development across Europe, meaning that

foreign issuers also have an incentive to issue a CSSD under German law.

The only alternative fixed income markets in Europe that are anywhere

near comparable are the Euro PP, which is used predominantly by French

issuers and in some cases by Italian or Belgium corporates, and the MARF

in Spain. Yet neither counterpart comes close to the issuance volume and

frequency of the German PP market. Furthermore, foreign investors are

specifically looking for European credit substitution business with

companies that do not have any (public) corporate bonds or syndicated

credits.

Our experience shows that SMEs are increasingly realising that by issuing

a bonded loan, their dependence on their own bank decreases and new

investors can be accessed while longstanding business relationships with

their own bank do not suffer. At the same time, many banks have reduced

their credit exposure or cut their balance sheet totals as a consequence of

the global regulatory regime (Basel III) and the more stringent capital

requirements associated therewith.

2,2% 5,4%

23,9%

25,0%6,5%

2,2%

34,8%

Basic Materials Communications Consumer, Cyclical

Consumer, Non-cyclical Financial Government

Industrial

6,5%2,2%

2,2%

75,0%

9,8%

4,3%

FR AT CH DE FI US

Page 6: Fixed Income Research Newsletter SchuldscheindarlehenNewsletter Schuldscheindarlehen 26. April 2016 1st Quarter NORD/LB Fixed Income Research Page 1 of 14 Current market environment

Newsletter Schuldscheindarlehen 26. April 2016

NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

Page 6 of 14

Topical issues Secured CSSD – a brief overview

Analyst: Christopher Kief

Real Estate is a key sector

At first glance, it seems only logical that the issuers with large asset

portfolios on their balance sheets (preferably property or infrastructure) are

considering issuing secured CSSD. In the following, we look at the options

available for collateralisation, with the focus here set to lie firmly on CSSD

secured by mortgages.

While in the past, issuers in the property sector were able to place larger

financing volumes in the market as CMBS or RMBS (e.g. Gagfah and

Vitus), CSSD are becoming increasingly popular with property companies

as well due to their significantly smaller volume requirements compared

with bonds or securitisation.

Collateralisation by way of

charges over property

Mortgage lending value as

sustainable property value

The key points for a CSSD issue secured by a mortgage are described

below. The fair value of the property for purchase (individual building or

portfolio) is determined on the basis of an internal (property valuation by

the bank acting as lead arranger) or external valuation. In light of potential

conflicts of interest, fair value property valuations carried out by the owner

and subsequent borrower are not used. The fair value of the future

collateral for the loan established in the valuation is used as the basis for

calculating the mortgage lending value. This is defined in Section 16 (2) of

the German Pfandbrief Act (PfandBG) as follows (extract): "The mortgage

lending value must not exceed the value resulting from a prudent

assessment of the future marketability of a property by taking into account

the long-term sustainable aspects of the property, the normal regional

market conditions as well as the current and possible alternative uses...".

Funding register an instrument

for transferring loan collateral

Cost and time savings vs. new

entry in the land register

We now look at the approaches available for transferring mortgages. The

funding register is an instrument that provides insolvency-proof security for

rights of transfer relating to credit claims and collateral held in trust. The

latter is especially important in the case of CSSD secured by mortgages,

since the borrower (issuer) generally only provides one (single) property

charge for the benefit of a collateral trustee (usually the bank acting as lead

arranger). In the event of insolvency, the collateral trustee initiates

foreclosure proceedings and distributes the enforcement proceeds to the

lenders on a pro rata basis. While the assignment of loan claims can in

principle be carried out easily by means of a simple assignment

agreement, transferring mortgages is more complicated. In legal relations,

registered land charges have become established which can only be

transferred by means of notarisation and an entry in the land register.

Taking the time and effort involved into account, as well as the costs

incurred (notary and land register costs) in particular, this process cannot

be seen as useful from either an economic or practicability standpoint.

Collateral trustee keeps funding

register

This problem was solved in 2005 with the introduction of the funding

register. The collateral trustee keeps a funding register which lists in detail

the property charge as such and the individual lenders. The entry in the

funding register (Section 22 j (1) sentence 1 German Banking Act/KWG)

gives the lenders or investors respectively what is known as a right to

segregation with regard to all duly registered assets and therefore also to

the property charge entered in the land register, in relation to which the

issuing bank holds the legal position of (property charge) creditor. The

Page 7: Fixed Income Research Newsletter SchuldscheindarlehenNewsletter Schuldscheindarlehen 26. April 2016 1st Quarter NORD/LB Fixed Income Research Page 1 of 14 Current market environment

Newsletter Schuldscheindarlehen 26. April 2016

NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

Page 7 of 14

Deviation from established

standard contracts

design and structure of the funding register are based closely on that of the

cover register for Pfandbrief funding. On 1 January 2014, the Federal

Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) also "opened up" the funding

register to insurance companies (Section 33d (3) German Banking

Act/KWG). However, allocation to the tied assets of insurance companies

requires certain special features to be taken into account in the contract

documentation, which necessitates a deviation from the usual standard

contracts.

Pricing a property-secured

CSSD

Property companies likely to

prefer long and fixed tranches

Unlike an unsecured CSSD, the pricing of its counterpart secured by a

mortgage is primarily influenced by the recoverable amount of the loan

collateral. Based on Section 14 PfandBG, a loan to value limit of 60% is

specified for property lending. As a CSSD with a maximum issue volume

equivalent to the amount of the property loan is eligible for inclusion in the

cover pool, the issuer can achieve the corresponding funding advantages.

Mixed variants are also possible however, where the issuer wants to fund

more than the 60% LTV via a CSSD. In this instance, the amount in excess

of the property loan is deemed for regulatory purposes to be a personal

loan or unsecured loan. The pricing of the personal loan is in turn carried

out exclusively on the basis of the issuer's creditworthiness. It is then

conceivable that the property loan and personal loan are issued in a joint

tranche at a corresponding "mixed spread" or as two separate tranches

with different spreads. With regard to the repayment characteristics of

secured CSSD, both annuity and bullet loans are possible. As is generally

the case with CSSD, we believe tranches with maturities of a maximum of

ten years will predominate. Given the ordinary termination rights (Section

489 German Civil Code/BGB) relating to CSSD, longer maturity bands are

covered by registered bonds. Furthermore, we anticipate that issuers in the

property sector will particularly prefer long-term and fixed tranches in order

to achieve matching funding for their assets (in line with fiscal depreciation)

and to manage interest rate risks. Even on the investor side, conservative

stress tests are carried out for cash flows in order to exclude potential

liquidity effects in the event of an expected turnaround in interest rates.

Tapping into new investor

groups wanting to invest

specifically in (commercial)

property finance

Unlike a bilateral loan, the issuer of a secured CSSD is specifically tapping

into new investor groups that want to, or indeed have to, invest in new

assets classes because of low interest rates. For institutional investors,

subscribing to a secured CSSD (real estate) offers the opportunity of

investing in commercial property finance without having to set up

comprehensive infrastructure and personnel. This investment is contingent

on the issue having an external rating and the issuer being the debtor in a

property financing transaction secured directly by a mortgage. Typically,

covenants are included in the contractual definitions of CSSD secured by

mortgages, which are based firstly on the debt ratio in relation to the fair

value of the collateral (LTV ratio) and secondly reflect a quantification for

the ratio of interest expenses to project-related cash flow (interest coverage

ratio or debt service coverage ratio). The transaction does not affect the

original credit lines of the issuer with its own bank (up to max. amount of

property loan) which are available for other financing and hedging

transactions; generally speaking, the issue of a secured CSSD does not

increase exposure to the participating banks. For corporates with sound

assets on their balance sheets that are not presently encumbered by

Page 8: Fixed Income Research Newsletter SchuldscheindarlehenNewsletter Schuldscheindarlehen 26. April 2016 1st Quarter NORD/LB Fixed Income Research Page 1 of 14 Current market environment

Newsletter Schuldscheindarlehen 26. April 2016

NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

Page 8 of 14

Increased complexity can lead

to need for an NPP

mortgages ("leeway in the land register"), a secured CSSD can also be a

useful alternative in the funding mix. The increased level of complexity

versus a plain vanilla CSSD can lead to investors launching a new product

process (NPP) in accordance with the Minimum Requirements for Risk

Management (MaRisk). With regard to existing IT systems in particular, we

see potential restrictions for recording secured CSSD in these systems.

Other alternatives to security

by way of mortgages

Pledging of shareholdings can

mean subordinate ranking

Finally, we would like to briefly mention two other potential forms of

collateralisation for CSSD. We consider the pledging of shareholdings as

well as the assignment of (rental) claims as other possible forms of loan

collateral for a CSSD issue. For instance, shareholdings in a management

company, which in turn holds stakes in various operating subsidiaries,

could be pledged in favour of the investors. However, where property

charges have already been entered in relation to the assets (real estate) of

the subsidiaries, CSSD investors will have a lower ranking claim

(regardless of whether the management company or one of the

subsidiaries is the issuer of the loan). But it should be taken into account

here that loans at subsidiary level are continually being repaid. Although in

legal terms the property charge is an abstract loan collateral, i.e. its

existence and amount is not dependent on the underlying claim, a

connection between the collateral and the loan is generated by means of a

security agreement. In the example described, through the pledge, the

CSSD investors therefore benefit from the repaid loans secured by

mortgages, or more generally, the more the repayment of the loans has

progressed, the more valuable the pledge becomes. Moreover, a second

property charge would also be conceivable for CSSD investors, although

this would entail the creation of a new property charge and the associated

land register and notary costs. In this regard, we consider the pledging of

shareholdings as useful loan collateral and ultimately a legal vehicle for

avoiding a second property charge.

External rating sometimes

required for pledge or

assignment as collaterl

Given the often lower fair value of the above loan collateral (pledging and

assignment) as compared with mortgages, as well as the possible

subordinate ranking, we see a requirement for an external issuer or

transaction rating (FERI, Creditreform or Euler Hermes) particularly with

regard to issuers in the SME segment wanting to choose such a form of

collateralisation.

Conclusion

Secured CSSD a niche product

for select investors

In our opinion, secured CSSD will remain a niche product. The nature of

CSSD as a simple capital market product with straightforward contractual

requirements is partly counteracted by collateralisation. Moreover,

investors can find themselves in a subordinate position, whereas plain

vanilla CSSD are typically structured on a senior unsecured basis.

Consequently, some investor groups that cannot model the product

category for regulatory reasons (NPP requirement) or as a result of internal

rules, will be excluded from investing in secured CSSD. Ultimately, this

variant of a Schuldschein represents an attractive and potential high

yielding investment option that can lucratively supplement an investor's

portfolio mix, possibly on a low risk basis.

Page 9: Fixed Income Research Newsletter SchuldscheindarlehenNewsletter Schuldscheindarlehen 26. April 2016 1st Quarter NORD/LB Fixed Income Research Page 1 of 14 Current market environment

Newsletter Schuldscheindarlehen 26. April 2016

NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

Page 9 of 14

Interested in secured CSSD?

Take part in one of our future secured CSSD transactions

.

Please send us your comments so we can address your specific requirements and answer any additional questions you may have.

Contact: [email protected]; or your NORD/LB Sales contact

Page 10: Fixed Income Research Newsletter SchuldscheindarlehenNewsletter Schuldscheindarlehen 26. April 2016 1st Quarter NORD/LB Fixed Income Research Page 1 of 14 Current market environment

Newsletter Schuldscheindarlehen 26. April 2016

NORD/LB Fixed Income Research

Page 10 of 14

Conclusion & outlook Good start to 2016 following record previous year

SME bonds increasingly

unattractive

For many years, small and medium-sized enterprises were faced with the

choice of funding their activities via a Mittelstandsbond or a CSSD or

diversifying their existing funding. We estimate that since the end of 2014 at

the latest (from this date, the Stuttgart stock exchange stopped actively

soliciting new issuers for the "BondM" segment for Mittelstandsbonds), the

SME bond has suffered from the negative connotations it has gained as a

consequence of increased corporate insolvencies, meaning that the choice

is more and more frequently in favour of CSSD. In January 2016, for

instance, German Pellets had to inform its investors that it was unable to

repay its EUR 80m Mittelstandbond which originally matured this month

because of a liquidity shortfall of EUR 52m. The management attempted to

prevent the looming payment default with a restructuring in the form of a

two year extension in the maturity (their Mittelstandsbonds had previously

fallen sharply in the secondary market). German Pellets finally had to file for

insolvency in February 2016.

New record volume in 2016 still

looks ambitious

(Global) economic risks remain

CSPP leads to positive

sentiment

In the newsletter for FY 2015, we assumed that the issuance volume in the

CSSD market in 2016 would not reach last year's record level, since large-

volume transactions such as ZF Friedrichshafen and Mann+Hummel are

not to be expected with such frequency every year. Even though there have

been several large-volume deals already in the first quarter of this year, we

should not lose sight of the prevailing adverse factors, such as the general

market sentiment and expected persistent high levels of volatility in the

capital markets (due particularly to economic and (geo)political risks). Given

the very positive start to the year with Schuldscheine from Hofer Financial

Services GmbH (EUR 1.6bn) and Porsche AG (EUR 1.1bn), a volume in the

region of EUR 18-20bn now seems realistic on the basis of our data. As

before, there are signs that the growth trend will be sustained, which are

also underlined by the first large mandates in Q1 2016. Accordingly,

HeidelbergCement benefited from sustained strong demand from investors

and placed EUR 625m instead of the originally planned EUR 400m. In this

case too, the issuer was motivated by an acquisition. The proceeds of the

issue will reduce a bridge financing to acquire its Italian competitor

Italcementi to EUR 2.7bn. At the same time, the transaction shows that in

the meantime, a large number of corporates, which are already active on

the capital market via benchmark bonds, are making use of CSSD as a

means of funding. From our perspective, it is primarily the reduced volatility

compared with the corporate bond market which comes into play here.

Finally however, economic risks regarding the frequency and level of new

issues remain for growth in the market for CSSD, which may have a

negative impact on willingness to invest and companies' M&A activity.

The primary market for corporate bonds has become considerably more

attractive again as a result of the monetary policy measures under the

CSPP which starts in June 2016. We now expect that large caps in

particular, which had turned to the CSSD market because of the general

rise in volatility and widening credit spreads at the start of this year

especially, will make increased use of the bond market again. The latest

deals in corporate bonds show very high bid-to-cover ratios in some cases.

BMW, for example, went to the market with two tranches (maturities: four

and eight years) each amounting to EUR 750m which were placed at 28bp

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Investor crowding out

through CSPP

and 43bp over mid swaps respectively. This was from an order book of

around EUR 4bn, which was more than two times oversubscribed. Investor

demand is therefore not a limiting factor. As well as the restructuring of

(maturing) funding, demand for liquidity is determined by planned M&A

activities in particular. Overall, new issues in the corporate bond market

already totalled around EUR 20bn by the middle of this month, and a

substantial share of this volume was in benchmark format. After the very

high level of over EUR 40bn in March, we expect sustained activity here.

However, with demand from investors remaining strong and pick-ups at

times extremely low, this will only put a strain on the – not very liquid –

secondary market to a limited extent. However, with regard to the CSPP,

we consider it feasible that the ECB will increasingly crowd out institutional

investors from corporate bonds (primary and secondary market). In such a

context, we see an opportunity for institutional investors to turn to CSSD,

which we do not currently consider to be qualifying assets for the CSPP.

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Anhang Ansprechpartner in der NORD/LB

Fixed Income Research

Michael Schulz Leitung +49 511 361-5309 [email protected]

Kai Niklas Ebeling Covered Bonds +49 511 361-9713 [email protected]

Mario Gruppe Public Issuers +49 511 361-9787 [email protected]

Michaela Hessmert Banks +49 511 361-6915 [email protected]

Christopher Kief Corporates / Retail Products +49 511 361-4710 [email protected]

Melanie Kiene Banks +49 511 361-4108 [email protected]

Jörg Kuypers Corporates / Retail Products +49 511 361-9552 [email protected]

Matthias Melms Covered Bonds +49 511 361-5427 [email protected]

Sascha Remus Corporates / Retail Products +49 511 361-2722 [email protected]

Norman Rudschuck Public Issuers +49 511 361-6627 [email protected]

Martin Strohmeier Corporates / Retail Products +49 511 361-4712 [email protected]

Kai Witt Corporates / Retail Products +49 511 361-4639 [email protected]

Markets Sales

Carsten Demmler Leitung +49 511 361-5587 [email protected]

Institutional Sales (+49 511 9818-9440)

Julia Bleser [email protected] Gabriele Schneider [email protected]

Thorsten Bock [email protected] Dirk Scholden [email protected]

Uwe Kollster [email protected] Uwe Tacke [email protected]

Daniel Novotny-Farkas [email protected]

Sales Sparkassen & Regionalbanken (+49 511 9818-9400)

Christian Schneider

(Leitung) [email protected] Stefan Krilcic [email protected]

Oliver Bickel [email protected] Martin Koch [email protected]

Tobias Bohr [email protected] Bernd Lehmann [email protected]

Kai-Ulrich Dörries [email protected] Jörn Meißner [email protected]

Marc Ehle [email protected] Lutz Schimanski [email protected]

Sascha Goetz [email protected] Brian Zander [email protected]

Fixed Income / Structured Products Sales Europe (+352 452211-515)

René Rindert (Leitung) [email protected] Patricia Lamas [email protected]

Morgan Kermel [email protected] Laurence Payet [email protected]

Corporate Sales

Schiffe / Flugzeuge +49 511 9818-8150 Firmenkunden +49 511 9818-4003

Immobilien / Strukturierte Finanzierung

+49 511 9818-8150 FX/MM +49 511 9818-4006

Syndicate / DCM (+49 511 9818-6600)

Thomas Cohrs (Leitung) [email protected] Andreas Raimchen [email protected]

Axel Hinzmann [email protected] Udo A. Schacht [email protected]

Thomas Höfermann [email protected] Marco da Silva [email protected]

Alexander Malitsky [email protected] Lutz Ulbrich [email protected]

Julien Marchand [email protected]

Corporate Finance – Origination Corporates

Tobias Müssig (Leitung) [email protected] Christian Müller [email protected]

Roland Arndt [email protected] Sandro Pittalis [email protected]

Sebastian Dahlhaus [email protected] Sabine Stenschke [email protected]

Birgit Determann [email protected] Karsten Wernecke [email protected]

Davina Haut [email protected]

Financial Markets Trading

Corporates +49 511 9818-9690 Collat. Mgmt / Repos +49 511 9818-9200

Covereds / SSAs +49 511 9818-8040 Cust. Exec. & Trading +49 511 9818-9480

Financials +49 511 9818-9490 Frequent Issuers +49 511 9818-9640

Governments +49 511 9818-9660 Structured Products +49 511 9818-9670

Länder & Regionen +49 511 9818-9550

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Wichtige Hinweise

Diese Studie (nachfolgend als „Information“ bezeichnet) ist von der NORDDEUTSCHEN LANDESBANK

GIROZENTRALE („NORD/LB“) erstellt worden. Die für die NORD/LB zuständigen Aufsichtsbehörden sind die

Europäische Zentralbank („EZB“), Sonnemannstraße 20, D-60314 Frankfurt am Main, und die Bundesanstalt für

Finanzdienstleitungsaufsicht („BaFin“), Graurheindorfer Str. 108, D-53117 Bonn und Marie-Curie-Str. 24-28, D-60439

Frankfurt am Main. Sofern Ihnen diese Information durch Ihre Sparkasse überreicht worden ist, unterliegt auch diese

Sparkasse der Aufsicht der BaFin und ggf. auch der EZB. Eine Überprüfung oder Billigung dieser Präsentation oder der

hierin beschriebenen Produkte oder Dienstleistungen durch die zuständige Aufsichtsbehörde ist grundsätzlich nicht

erfolgt.

Diese Information richtet sich ausschließlich an Empfänger in Deutschland (nachfolgend als „relevante Personen“ oder

„Empfänger“ bezeichnet). Die Inhalte dieser Information werden den Empfängern auf streng vertraulicher Basis gewährt

und die Empfänger erklären mit der Entgegennahme dieser Information ihr Einverständnis, diese nicht ohne die

vorherige schriftliche Zustimmung der NORD/LB an Dritte weiterzugeben, zu kopieren und/oder zu reproduzieren. Diese

Information ist nur an die relevanten Personen gerichtet und andere Personen als die relevanten Personen dürfen nicht

auf die Angaben in dieser Information vertrauen. Insbesondere darf weder diese Information noch eine Kopie hiervon

nach Japan, Kanada oder in die Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika oder in ihre Territorien oder Besitztümer gebracht

oder übertragen oder an Mitarbeiter oder an verbundene Gesellschaften in diesen Rechtsordnungen ansässiger

Empfänger verteilt werden.

Bei dieser Information handelt es sich nicht um eine Finanzanalyse, sondern um eine lediglich Ihrer allgemeinen

Information dienende Werbemitteilung. Aus diesem Grund ist diese Information nicht unter Berücksichtigung aller

besonderen gesetzlichen Anforderungen an die Gewährleistung der Unvoreingenommenheit von Finanzanalysen

erstellt worden. Ebenso wenig unterliegt diese Information dem Verbot des Handels vor der Veröffentlichung, wie dies

für Finanzanalysen gilt.

Die hierin enthaltenen Informationen wurden ausschließlich zu Informationszwecken erstellt und werden ausschließlich

zu Informationszwecken bereitgestellt. Es ist nicht beabsichtigt, dass diese Information einen Anreiz für

Investitionstätigkeiten darstellt. Sie wird für die persönliche Information des Empfängers mit dem ausdrücklichen, durch

den Empfänger anerkannten Verständnis bereitgestellt, dass sie kein direktes oder indirektes Angebot, keine

Empfehlung, keine Aufforderung zum Kauf, Halten oder Verkauf sowie keine Aufforderung zur Zeichnung oder zum

Erwerb von Wertpapieren oder anderen Finanzinstrumenten und keine Maßnahme, durch die Finanzinstrumente

angeboten oder verkauft werden könnten, darstellt.

Alle hierin enthaltenen tatsächlichen Angaben, Informationen und getroffenen Aussagen sind Quellen entnommen, die

von der NORD/LB für zuverlässig erachtet wurden. Da insoweit allerdings keine neutrale Überprüfung dieser Quellen

vorgenommen wird, kann die NORD/LB keine Gewähr oder Verantwortung für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit der

hierin enthaltenen Informationen übernehmen. Die aufgrund dieser Quellen in der vorstehenden Information geäußerten

Meinungen und Prognosen stellen unverbindliche Werturteile dar. Veränderungen der Prämissen können einen

erheblichen Einfluss auf die dargestellten Entwicklungen haben. Weder die NORD/LB, noch ihre Organe oder

Mitarbeiter können für die Richtigkeit, Angemessenheit und Vollständigkeit der Informationen oder für einen

Renditeverlust, indirekte Schäden, Folge- oder sonstige Schäden, die Personen entstehen, die auf die Informationen,

Aussagen oder Meinungen in dieser Information vertrauen (unabhängig davon, ob diese Verluste durch Fahrlässigkeit

dieser Personen oder auf andere Weise entstanden sind), die Gewähr, Verantwortung oder Haftung übernehmen.

Frühere Wertentwicklungen sind kein verlässlicher Indikator für künftige Wertentwicklungen. Währungskurse,

Kursschwankungen der Finanzinstrumente und ähnliche Faktoren können den Wert, Preis und die Rendite der in dieser

Information in Bezug genommenen Finanzinstrumente oder darauf bezogener Instrumente negativ beeinflussen. Die

Bewertung aufgrund der historischen Wertentwicklung eines Wertpapiers oder Finanzinstruments lässt sich nicht

zwingend auf dessen zukünftige Entwicklung übertragen.

Diese Information stellt keine Anlage-, Rechts-, Bilanzierungs- oder Steuerberatung sowie keine Zusicherung dar, dass

ein Investment oder eine Strategie für die individuellen Verhältnisse des Empfängers geeignet oder angemessen ist,

und kein Teil dieser Information stellt eine persönliche Empfehlung an einen Empfänger der Information dar. Auf die in

dieser Information Bezug genommenen Wertpapiere oder sonstigen Finanzinstrumente sind möglicherweise nicht für

die persönlichen Anlagestrategien und -ziele, die finanzielle Situation oder individuellen Bedürfnisse des Empfängers

geeignet.

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Ebenso wenig handelt es sich bei dieser Information im Ganzen oder in Teilen um einen Verkaufs- oder anderweitigen

Prospekt. Dementsprechend stellen die in dieser Information enthaltenen Informationen lediglich eine Übersicht dar und

dienen nicht als Grundlage einer möglichen Kauf- oder Verkaufsentscheidung eines Investors. Eine vollständige

Beschreibung der Einzelheiten von Finanzinstrumenten oder Geschäften, die im Zusammenhang mit dem Gegenstand

dieser Information stehen könnten, ist der jeweiligen (Finanzierungs-) Dokumentation zu entnehmen. Soweit es sich bei

den in dieser Information dargestellten Finanzinstrumenten um prospektpflichtige eigene Emissionen der NORD/LB

handelt, sind allein verbindlich die für das konkrete Finanzinstrument geltenden Anleihebedingungen sowie der jeweilig

veröffentlichte Prospekt und das jeweilige Registrierungsformular der NORD/LB, die insgesamt unter www.nordlb.de

heruntergeladen werden können und die bei der NORD/LB, Georgsplatz 1, 30159 Hannover kostenlos erhältl ich sind.

Eine eventuelle Anlageentscheidung sollte in jedem Fall nur auf Grundlage dieser (Finanzierungs-) Dokumentation

getroffen werden. Diese Information ersetzt nicht die persönliche Beratung. Jeder Empfänger sollte, bevor er eine

Anlageentscheidung trifft, im Hinblick auf die Angemessenheit von Investitionen in Finanzinstrumente oder

Anlagestrategien, die Gegenstand dieser Information sind, sowie für weitere und aktuellere Informationen im Hinblick

auf bestimmte Anlagemöglichkeiten sowie für eine individuelle Anlageberatung einen unabhängigen Anlageberater

konsultieren.

Jedes in dieser Information in Bezug genommene Finanzinstrument kann ein hohes Risiko einschließlich des Kapital-,

Zins-, Index-, Währungs- und Kreditrisikos, politischer Risiken, Zeitwert-, Rohstoff- und Marktrisiken aufweisen. Die

Finanzinstrumente können einen plötzlichen und großen Wertverlust bis hin zum Totalverlust des Investments erfahren.

Jede Transaktion sollte nur aufgrund einer eigenen Beurteilung der individuellen finanziellen Situation, der

Angemessenheit und der Risiken des Investments erfolgen.

Die NORD/LB und mit ihr verbundene Unternehmen können an Geschäften mit den in dieser Information dargestellten

Finanzinstrumenten oder deren Basiswerte für eigene oder fremde Rechnung beteiligt sein, weitere Finanzinstrumente

ausgeben, die gleiche oder ähnliche Ausgestaltungsmerkmale wie die der in dieser Information dargestellten

Finanzinstrumente haben sowie Absicherungsgeschäfte zur Absicherung von Positionen vornehmen. Diese

Maßnahmen können den Preis der in dieser Information dargestellten Finanzinstrumente beeinflussen.

Soweit es sich bei den in dieser Information dargestellten Finanzinstrumenten um Derivate handelt, können diese je

nach Ausgestaltung zum Zeitpunkt des Geschäftsabschlusses einen aus Kundensicht anfänglichen negativen Marktwert

beinhalten. Die NORD/LB behält sich weiterhin vor, ihr wirtschaftliches Risiko aus einem mit ihr abgeschlossenen

Derivat mittels eines spiegelbildlichen Gegengeschäfts an Dritte in den Markt abzugeben.

Nähere Informationen zu etwaigen Provisionszahlungen, die im Verkaufspreis enthalten sein können, finden Sie in der

Broschüre „Kundeninformation zum Wertpapiergeschäft“, die unter www.nordlb.de abrufbar ist.

Die in dieser Information enthaltenen Informationen ersetzen alle vorherigen Versionen einer entsprechenden

Information und beziehen sich ausschließlich auf den Zeitpunkt der Erstellung der Information. Zukünftige Versionen

dieser Information ersetzen die vorliegende Fassung. Eine Verpflichtung der NORD/LB, die Informationen in dieser

Information zu aktualisieren und/oder in regelmäßigen Abständen zu überprüfen, besteht nicht. Eine Garantie für die

Aktualität und fortgeltende Richtigkeit kann daher nicht gegeben werden.

Mit der Verwendung dieser Information erkennt der Empfänger die obigen Bedingungen an.

Die NORD/LB gehört dem Sicherungssystem der Deutschen Sparkassen-Finanzgruppe an. Weitere Informationen

erhält der Empfänger unter Nr. 28 der Allgemeinen Geschäftsbedingungen der NORD/LB oder unter

www.dsgv.de/sicherungssystem.

Redaktionsschluss

26.04.2016