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Fischer Checklist

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Fischer Checklist for investing

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Spirit -1. Strategy1Continuously AdaptiveBe like waterEvolution - slaying of beautiful hypotheis by ugly fact (chess game)Key metrics (external/internal) to gauge the environment2Business modelSet of assumptions about how value is created for allStory with characters, plausible motivations, and plot driven by economic logicBack up and redundancy in the structure of the systemTemplates of great modelsToll BridgeTwo sided platformHbr - get the side with the weakest need - Sugar and antsNetwork economies - connecting users with positive feedback3Competitive Advantage / MoatWhat would Croesus do?Invert - what can go wrong (make sure it never happens)Pricing power as indicator of moatStrengthening of Moat not always correlated with revenuesAny Cumulative Advantage? - like a relationship4Making Trade - offsMarginal costs & marginal benefits5Outliers/ LollapalozaN number of factors aligningExtremely good at one or two key thingsFurther break down those two key things into sub parameters62 by 2 matrix4 kinds of businesses(ROIC and Incremental capital needed)7Decision making criterionShould come before evaluating the choicesTranslate the problem - into yes or no decision with few key success factorsUnique every time - no cook book approach8Externalities (positive and negative)Outside your locus of control9Leap of faith into executionAnimal Spirits of Capitalism (spontaneous urge for action, joy of doing something - Prakriti)Role of Bravado in businessSerendipityExpose yourself to chance happeningsPrepare and be aware for all worst case scenariosMost people are scared of losing jobs, houses, spouses, relatives, careers, reputation etcObjects of attachment are like pieces in chess gameCombine the matter wealth to create a new combination - it will be destroyed - eventually

Spirit -2. Innovation1Two brains (Left & Right)Rationally discriminating (excel cells)Intuitively connecting the dots (shades in the cells)2Engaging Both the brainsEngage left brainDevelop checklistsAnalyse and prioritise key elements to focus onFrugality matters in fast decision makingReason through it (give yourself time, delay decision making, say let me process the information)Engaging right brainLearn to pick all cues (itellectual, emotional, sense cues) intuitivelyConnect cues to old knowledgeValidity of environment, feedback and practice of intuition3Left Brain (Convergent Thinking, Apollonian)Right Brain (Divergent Thinking, Dionysian)Fundamental attribution (who created the knowledge, on whose authority)ConnectednessOrganizing etho of science- newtonian reductionismJEE Maths (Recognizing the web from small part on display - Euler)Reductionism related to simplicity (ultimate sophistication)Synthesis - sketching a face by combining the elementsYou see an animal, I see the DNASystemic thinking - tying up fundamentals across domainsJEE PhysicsThought experimentNoise and SignalRelativity -best exampleScale (mattra) may be different - fundamentals are sameReconstruction (Inversion) - I do not understand what I cannot create (munger on coke)Plug and Chug (Systems thinking - AuthBridge)Inductive logicJEE ChemistryFaulty inductive logic - blanket generalizationReductio ad absurdum (Invert)DialecticWhat if this happened - would it lead to something absurd?Hypoethesis - Antithesis - SynthesisDeductive LogicException proves that the rule is wrong (Pooper's falsifability)Fact or inference or judgement or assumption (check the premises)when would the assumption failDecision trees - Bayesian thinking (updating odds with new info)See all worst case scenarios - till nuclear explosion - power of negative thinkingEliminate risk but embrace uncertaintyLike a punter, constantly shifting odds with every roll of dice (show of info)Talk in probabilistic terms in everyday life (how can my house be attacked)Sequential thinking (Structured problem solving)Management Consulting SlidesTimelineOccams razorSimplest explanation is usually the bestNo brainer questions firstI doubt therefore I amWhat about the anomaly?NumeracyBe numerate - expressing thinking in Excel4Combine the matter wealth to create a new combination - it will be destroyed - eventuallyKnowledge / Expertise / SkillsLand / NetworkCapitalLabour

Spirit-3. LD1Three Dominant Thought Streams (see the Simulation and test)Satvik (Silver)Rajsik (Bronze)Tamsik (Iron)LogicalEmotionalAppetitiveImagination & Real KnowledgeChauffeur KnowledgeIgnorant, Cynical & NegativeThinkersExecution (Getting it done)& OrganizingFollowing OrdersWhyHowWhat1.1Orientation towards material objectsGenerous & Democratic (Win-Win)Feudal & Selfish (Win-Lose or Race)Distructive (Lose-Lose), Hostile & Head OnAttitute towards human resource:Mindset of AbundanceMindset of OpportunityMindset of ScarcityAttitude towards other material resources:Broad & Long termShort term & NarrowTunnelled (based on habit)1.2Range of Perspective (Gaze)Harmony of Thoughts - speech - actions:Truth SeekingRationalizing & Tossing up-downFalsehoodAwareness of consequences of actions:Consequence for othersConsequence for selfConsequence of neither1.3Task (Process) Orientation V/s Outcome (Goal) OrientationTask FocusedOutcome FocusedUnfocusedDisciplined (delay of gratification long term good)Action (quick results long term discontent)Slothful (instant gratification)2Three Dominate SubConscious TendenciesNarcissm (versus Humility)2.1Pragmatic reason for humility - merit itself is offensiveConfident person does not react to negative feedback, need not wear his ability/virtues on his sleeveUse of Maya - Truth is killed, for doing good also you need a maskKeep your happiness hidden from othersSatyam Shivam Sundaram - but not in a world of gangsters (96% of human DNA Animals)All moving on the same level - been there - all bubbles burst including yoursAll specks of dust in large scheme of things - even the king of world2.2Obsessiveness (versus Detachment and Letting Go)Whole life is an act of leaving behind - ultimately your bodyReady to resign from the workplace every morning2.3Eroticism (versus Inner Validation)Love (Human Need) to Sefless CompassionLove - Dissolving of ego boundaries (but soul selects its own society)Pure emotion can transfor into compassionControl versus Letting go (final stage of love)3Two Energies in Meditation3.1Judging (Shiva) - like evolution breaking of beautiful hypothesis by ugly factsFirst half of Clockwork OrangeActive Tapas - an hour like chess match/JEE/CAT - see the ouput/evidence to improveWicked Messanger - but people dont want the bad newsThe awareness of Death (Shiva) - all matter will be destroyed- knowledge will grow bigger than youTerribly rational - to thine own self be true -mockingly burst your own bubbles (Shiva)Poopers FalsifiabilityCogito ergo sum - I doubt therefore I amConfirmation gives pleasure while disconformation feels painful (neti neti neti)Extreme & Sudden Tight Corners reveals a persons character (like mugging)3.2Flowing (Shankar)- this too shall passSecond half of Clockwork Orange -but love is theuniversal energy that binds allPassive FlowEmpathasing with the path of othersPeople have egos since they are scared (they overcome fear in different stages)Veil of IgnoranceGentle accpetance of desires (tamsik) - 96% of human DNA is of animalSeeds of evil in goodness and vice versa (joined at hip) - whore story from Siva PuranaMost of logic is a negative exerciseSensitive people can be sense indulgingTraffic Driving as test of toleranceAll roads lead to hospital (death bed) - all are happiness seeking missilesAll will bear the consequence of the choices they make (but unfair cruel blows are part of life)Conflict and Chaos will always be there

Structure-4. CF Manac1Asset = Liability + Equity (For every Transaction)Debit Increase Credit Increse (DICI)Beginning + Addition - Subtractions = Ending (BASE)Buyer+Target+/- Deal Changes = Consolidation (BTDC)2Valuation - Project cash flow and discount themPast record value- if future same as pastPresent value - if assumptions holdInvestment value & speculative value3Margin of Safety4Compounding & Cumuative AdvantageTime value of money5Investment versus SpeculationGrahams definition of investment operation tht promises return of principal and possibiilty of returnInvestment - cash flow it will give; Speculation - how much can I pass it off for6Fixed Income SecurityTrue Economic Yield- interest payment received /outstanding principal balance7Mr Market - manic depressive creature that will propose prices to you

Structure-5. HR1Mind of a RecruiterWe are both on the same level (but giver versus fake humilit in practice)An hour is a rare opportunity to meet a person (200,000 hours of life)Act compassionately judge rationallyThinking progresses by negation - social exhchange happens by affirmationPeople are what they do, not what they say (sudden tight corner test)Pick all cues Inellectual, Emotional, Senses- eye moments, sound bytes etcIs he hedgehog or fox?People are sum total of choices or groups they are part ofWho are your role models?How would your father, mother, wife, friend describe you in a sentence?People cannot handle freedom (rich kids, towards maid)How would you handle this problem if I was to give you the following resources?2Knowledge / Expertise / SkillsLand / NetworkCapitalLabourSelf Worth or Drivers or Objects of Attachment (See the simulation and test)Knowledge & Creativity & FameHonor, PowerMoneyFear & ControlSelf expression & Problem SolvingPrestigeAffiliationTemptationsMotivationAppeal to ReasonAppeal to InterestAppeal to InterestScare & DemoralizeIncentive of learningIncentive of networkInentive of moneyIncentive of good time3Mind of a Coach / Emotional HealerLet them try it out (Visnus way)Managing extreme emotions like Phobia, Rage, Depression is the acid testBreaking the feedback loop of negative emotionsAsk gentle questions and make them say what you can seeMake a statement and step backTo give feedback - set proper place,pace, context and listenAttachment - Desire - Anger - Hate - SufferingEnchantment by an object (makes you run after it)Ultimately the patient must minister himself (Free Will & Choice of Actions)Negative emotions encoded in the DNA of some professions4Preferred Modes of learning - but be open to all modes ( how would u learn a new thing)Put knowledge to test ( Cogito ergo sum)Test it by execution (every start-up a university course)Test it by measuring it against other bodies of knowledgeFour stages of learning (to make competence intuitive and sahaj)Unknown and known, competence & incompetenceWelcome the anomaly that bugs (tapas inside)Conflict needed for progress of knowledge (change is the only constant)Nietszhe eternal recurrenceMagic of compounding and cumulative advantageFind your swing and keep swinging (identify your domains)Thinking /Generic problem solving and/or Skills/Know-How /Expertise/Domain Knowledge5Multiple IntelligencesAnalyticalVerbalVisualKinestheticInterpersonalExistentialMusical6OPTM by Mark Effron

Structure-6. Operations1Job of an administrator - a series of meetings with different stakeholders2Effect of effects - and then what?All human systems are gamed3Locus of Control (can only truly control yourself)2*2 - Important & KnowableUncertainty tolerance - ability to admit "I dont know"4Fake Urgency while being calm yourself5Working with VendorsTrust but VerifyTalk to multipe vendors before hiring one- they will end up education youMake them do the dance before the selection- or be prepared to dance laterMaker and Checker should be different in the process6OverconfidencePlanning fallacyStart from base rate and adjustKeep margin for unknowable unknownsPre-mortem analysis

Structure-7. Technology123

Layer-8. Sales1Mind of a SalesmanTemporary but mindfull & earnest engagement - (make them feel special)Prospecting - where to invest time?Influencing by asking questions - what, when, where, how and why?By asking questions take them through stagesJudging rationally but acting emotionally / compassionatelyDifferent combinations of think - feel - doYou can oversell in the movement of positive feelingPeople are gullible when they are tiredAttention - Interest - Desire - ActionHolding the agendaInspiring Trust - Openness, Truthfulness, Integrity (familiar seems true - common ground)Everything is connectedKeeping everyone at ease during social exchangeFirst mover disadvantage - let the other side open his cardStorytelling problem - simple, coherent, consistent (rather than completeness)Network of atmost 150Knowledge / Expertise / SkillsLand / NetworkCapitalLabour2Self serving bias/ Fool yourself tendencyRationalizing (lies to yourself- to reduce cognitive dissonance)Altering perception of aestheiticslove my boss (but I hate him)Mental accountingAttribution errorNever actually resolves the conflict2 ways to resolve conflict - unprepared for end sem3Effect of expectations (Associative coherence -sequencing in pitch)Priming for actionAnchor of learningAnchor of networkAnchor of moneyAnchor of securityAvailability and Vividness - WYSIATI - Halo effectWhile selling a product - first mention drawbacks and then benefitsBenefits of knowledgeBenefits of networkBenefits of capitalBenefits of security4InfluenceSimilar OthersAuthority FigureReciprocitySocial Proof4Reason respecting tendency - just say because in the sales pitch (single, simple reason will be best)5Sealing the deal (due to associative coherence seeking mind)Contrast effect (small request followed by big)Commitments are powerful when public, active, effortful and apparently uncoerced - IITMake the customer say a series of yes in the sales pitchEndowment effect -Make the person choose his product, write down his goal sheet, to do list, application formsBest way to steer a horse - go in the direction he is going - and then maneouvreCustomize the client offering to remind him of himself6NegotiationAll Negotiation based on deceptionEach party makes other believe - I dont need yaSubtle AnchorsBrinkmanshipBATNAKeyword is alternative - deception plays a roleActual interest versus stated interest12Scarcity Mindset - Root of suffering - basis of econmicsDSRS, Loss Aversion (fear of small certain losses), Near missesNewly scarce resources heightened in value, more scarce if others are competing for itYou will lose something if you dont buy it13Business Development - Final Frontier of SalesMapping the organizations (all 9 functions)Organization structure:muliple power centres , politics , key success stories / failuresWhere is the decision maker in organization and what is he accountable forInfluencers and your connectsGroupthink - No such thing as collective decision making14Mind of a Relationship Guy

Layer-9. Marketing1Product (Customer)1.1Customers dont buy products but uses of productWhich product attribute to be highlited in advertisingLinking product attributes and consumer attitude in communicationHighlighting relevant points in the resumeNeeds (Cognitive) and Wants (Emotional and Appetitive) - Reasons and ExcusesFundamentals and the frills, bells and whistles1.2STPSegmentation is not always neededChoice of targeting has implications - message, media etcDemonstrating a claim works wondersWell entrenched position has its own limitations - it should be malleablePositioning is your space in consumers mind and has to be monitored1.3Product lIfe cycle (Diffusion of Innovation or Tipping Point)Some see value first and then others see itExtending the PLC - Soap Opera trickRelated concepts- Salesman life cycle, Brand loyalist life cycleCustomer Lifetime Value / Consumption equationProfitibality customer will give over lifetime of productCross sellingLoss leader proposition1.4Product Brand Continumm / Are you buying product or brandBrand as a dope - numbs your sensibilitiesAssociations in the head - associative memory - pavlovian conditioning (subconscious)Creatures of habit & status quo bias1.5Customer funnel/ Consumer decision journey / PyramidSimilar Concept: Sales funnel , BD Sales FunnelsIdentify the most critical stage in the funnel2Place (Convenience)Website - Inbound marketingCustomer finds you rather than you finding the customerMultiple touch points with consumersMake the product available (WYSIATI)Optimum number of choicesContrast effect and anchoring3Price (Cost)Cost of creating value < price < perceived valueMarketer can change the perception in perceived value4Promotion (Communication)Slow down to the pace and path of your audienceConnectors, Mavens and SalesmanCommunication depends on perception more than emotion or logicPerception is based on experience & habit (tamas) and can be illogicalPerception has rangeDisagreement is a result of incongruence in perception not in realityContent of messsage - Reason, Interest & Emotion, Sense GratificationFirst decide organization strategy, then STP, objective of message, then contentObjective of message varies - eg communicate product benefits or invoke feelingsIf fear is the key emotion - then give the audience clear specific remedies (else paralysis)Continuity is imp - repositioning is badAn epic that will run over the lifetime of the consumer- not a short term thingCode of the medium - TV, paper, NetNewspaper test for written and oral communicationAccept the feedback, process and then deal or discardSmokescreen answers - everybody lies- read between the linesImpute the values of the companyStructure and Sequence of Presentation

Ether-10.Economics1Consume the surplus resources as much as you canThere are always some resources that are free2Indexes of Market SentimentPeriodic boom in closed end mutual fund

Ether-11.Design1Fundamental Elements- Colours, Notes and WordsHarmony of fundamental elements2Building Blocks - Lines & Shapes, Phrases and Sentences,3Shapes4Texture5Proportion & BalanceLight & ShadeTone6CoherenceEditing - the key to movie makingFluidity of writing7Empty or Negative SpacePauses in music or speaking8StructureParallelism in painting9Repetition & Patterns10Composition