Fiscal rules in Lithuania - Valstybės kontrolė · 2016-06-07 · Fiscal rules in Lithuania 3 June, 2016 Algimantas Rimkūnas. Vice Minister, Ministry of Finance of Lithuania

Fiscal rules in Lithuania

3 June, 2016

Algimantas RimkūnasVice Minister, Ministry of Finance of

Lithuania

Law on the Budget Structure

Financial Indicators of the State budget and Municipal Budgets

Law on Fiscal Discipline

Constitutional Law on the Implementation of the Fiscal Treaty

2

Evolution of National and EU Fiscal Regulations

Stability and Growth Pact (SGP)

SGP Reform

Six-Pack

Fiscal Compact

Two-Pack

EC Comm. on SGP Flexibility

19972005

2011

20122013 2015

20142007

1990

1991

Maastricht Treaty 1992

3

Comparison of Fiscal Aggregates Limited byNational and EU Legislation

Fiscal aggregate Regulated by EU legislation

Regulated by national legislation

General Government structural balance General Government nominal balance General Government expenditure growth

General Government debt

Subsector debt, guaranteed debt and change in debt liabilities

Subsector nominal and (or) structuralbalances

4Source: IMF report on EU fiscal rules

Although Set of Fiscal Rules Appears Complex ….

If to add-up national government‘ssubsectors rules– complexityincreases

5Source: Eurostat. EU average – based on number of EU members at a particular year. EU average debt for up to 1999 – the Euro zone figures due to absent data for the whole EU.

…the EU Fiscal Reforms Have Positive Impact on Fiscal Outcomes

0102030405060708090

100

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

-8,0-7,0-6,0-5,0-4,0-3,0-2,0-1,00,0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Six Pack

Two Pack

General Government balance, EU, % GDP

General Government debt, EU, % GDP

Stability and Growth Pact

SGP reform

6

Challenges of Fiscal Rules Application (I)

Structural balance

Output gap

One-offs

Expenditure growth: two rules (National and

EU)Methodological differences

Differences in scope

Expenditure growth

Exceptions for application

Dependence on past results

Valuation of investments, discretionary revenue measures, etc.

Potential GDP Calculation and Respective Disputesof Calculations – Both at the Core of Fiscal Rules

2,1

2,52,7

3,0 3,13,1

2,0

2,32,5

2,8

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

per c

ent

Potential output growth rate according to the MoF economic development scenario

(March 2016) using different length of time series

Potential output, calculated according to longer time seriesof the economic development scenarioPotential output, calculated according to shorter time seriesof the economic development scenario

1,0

0,2

-0,1

0,1 0,1 0,1

1,1

0,3 0,3

0,7

-0,2

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

% o

fpot

entia

lout

put

Output gap according to the MoF economic development scenario (March 2016) using

different length of time series

Output gap, calculated according to longer time seriesof the economic development scenarioOutput gap, calculated according to shorter time seriesof the economic development scenario

Shorter forecast horizon determines slower potential output g rowth

7

8

Challenges of Fiscal Rules Application (II)

Structural balance

Output gap

One-offs

Expenditure growth: two rules (National

and EU)Methodological differences

Differences in scope

Expenditure growth limit size

Exceptions for application

Dependence on past results

Valuation of investments, discretionary revenue measures,

etc.

More Space for Expenditure Growth If Structural Reforms Are Being Implemented

In 2016 Lithuania used an exception for pension reform

Stability program of Lithuania for 2016 addresses EC to approve the New Social Model as a structural reform exception within SGP rules

9

EU

regu

latio

n The EC evaluates the structural reform correspondence with EU SGP requirementsStructural reforms must meet these criteria:

Effect on public finance sustainability growthEffect on economic potential growth

Independent valuation analysis on effectsRegulations have to be adopted

Expenditure on structural reforms cannot exceed 0.5 % GDP

Source: Eurostat, Ministry of Finance calculations

Factual Deficit in 2015 in Lithuania was the Lowest Since Restoration of the Independence

Structural General Government balance, % GDP

MTO for 2016-2018 is set at 1 % GDP structural general government deficit

Based on assessment of the Stability Programme and taking into account the Commission 2016 spring forecast Lithuania is expected to comply with the provisions of the Stability and Growth Pact

-0,3-0,8

-3,1

-9,1

-6,9

-8,9

-3,1-2,6

-0,7-0,2

-0,8 0,0

-10,0-9,0-8,0-7,0-6,0-5,0-4,0-3,0-2,0-1,00,0

General Government balance, %GDP

-0,5

-0,7

0

-1,2

-1

-0,8

-0,6

-0,4

-0,2

02015* 2016** 2017**

Structural GGbalance, %GDP

MTO

10

Fiscal Outcomes in EU 2015

General Government balance 2015, % GDP Change in General Government expenditure 2015, p.p. GDP

Source: Eurostat

1,20,7

0,40

-0,2-0,4

-0,7-1

-1,2-1,3

-1,5-1,8-2

-2,1-2,1

-2,3-2,6-2,6-2,6-2,7

-2,9-3

-3,2-3,5

-4,4-4,4

-5,1-7,2

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2

LuxembourgGermany

EstoniaSweden

LithuaniaCzech Republic

RomaniaCyprusAustriaLatviaMalta

NetherlandsHungaryBulgaria

DenmarkIreland

BelgiumItaly

PolandFinland

SloveniaSlovakiaCroatiaFrance

PortugalUnited Kingdom

SpainGreece

-8,6-3,5-3,4

-1,9-1,9

-1,3-1,3-1,2-1,2-1,2-0,9-0,9-0,7-0,7-0,7-0,5-0,4-0,3-0,3-0,2

0,10,20,3

0,91,21,5

3,74,6

-10 -5 0 5 10

CyprusIreland

PortugalBulgariaSlovenia

NetherlandsSwedenBelgium

SpainCroatia

LuxembourgAustria

United KingdomItaly

PolandFrance

GermanyDenmark

LatviaCzech Republic

MaltaFinland

LithuaniaHungaryRomaniaEstoniaSlovakiaGreece

General Government Debt, % of GDP

12

Government Debt at the Manageable Level

Source: Ministry of Finance

40 39.9

35.7

42.7

41.1

43.3

38.139

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Debt without prefunding Debt including prefunding

Responsible Fiscal Policy Results in Higher Credit Ratings and Lower Interest Expenditure

13Source: Ministry of Finance

General Government interest expenditure % GDP

1,8

1,61,5

1,41,3

1,00,9

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

2013 2014 2015 2016 p. 2017 p. 2018 p. 2019 p.

Diagrama1

40084

42131

42132

42461

A3/A-

Baa1/BBB+

Baa2/BBB

A2/A

Baa3/BBB-

Moody's

9

9

10

10

Data

Reitingai

Moody'sMoody'sStandard & Poor'sFitch RatingsAaaAAA16

4/23/09A3102/24/09BBB+94/8/09BBB81/1/1240909Aa1AA+15

2012 m.2013 m.2014 m.2015 m.2016 m. prognozė2017 m. prognozė2018 m. prognozė9/28/09Baa193/24/09BBB84/4/13BBB84/1/1642461Aa2AA14

Valdžios sektoriaus skola % BVP39.838.840.742.540.842.335.95/7/15Baa198/17/09BBB84/5/13BBB+9Aa3AA-13

Valdžios sektoriaus skola neįtraukiant išankstinio lėšų kaupimo didelės apimties euroobligacijų emisijoms išpirkti, % BVP38.338.837.939.840.838.935.95/8/15A3104/10/14BBB86/24/14BBB+9A1A+12

Skolos valstybės vardu valdymo programos išlaidos, mln. Eur596.6780583874596.6974629286622.125231696583.9583.74/1/16A3104/11/14A-106/25/14A-10A2A11

Valstybės mokamos palūkanos už valstybės vardu pasiskolintas lėšas, mln. Eur591.702386469591.9103336423618.6574.3576.24/1/16A-104/1/16A-10A3A-10

Baa1BBB+9

Baa2BBB8

Baa3BBB-7

Ba1BB+6

Ba2BB5

Ba3BB-4

B1B+3

B2B2

B3B-1

Caa1CCC+

Caa2CCC

Caa3CCC-

CaCC

CC

WRD

NR

Pastaba: 2015 metais valdžios sektoriaus skolos padidėjimą nulėmė Europos Sąjungos paramos 2007-2013 ir 2014-2020 m. programų lėšų disbalansas.

Valdžios sektoriaus palūkanų norma

2012 m.5.231059178693.913265

2013 m.4.847907934661.113636.81013

2014 m.4.383759771649.914825.17369

2015 m.3.9792725463215882.29994

2016 m.3.94709727562615859.75608

CountryMoody’sStandard & Poor’sFitch

LithuaniaA3A-A-LietuvaA3A-A-

LatviaA3A-A-LatvijaA3A-A-

EstoniaA1AA-A+EstijaA1AA-A+

HungaryBa1*BB+BB+*ČekijaA1AA-A+

Czech RepublicA1AA-A+SlovakijaA2A+A+

SlovakiaA2A+A+LenkijaA2BBB+A-

PolandA2BBB+**A-

Data

Valdžios sektoriaus skola % BVP

Valdžios sektoriaus skola neįtraukiant išankstinio lėšų kaupimo didelės apimties euroobligacijų emisijoms išpirkti, % BVP

Bonds

Lapas3

A3/A-

Baa1/BBB+

Baa2/BBB

A2/A

Baa3/BBB-

Moody's

Standard & Poor's

Fitch Ratings

A3/A-

Baa1/BBB+

Baa2/BBB

A2/A

Baa3/BBB-

Moody's

A3/A-

Baa1/BBB+

Baa2/BBB

A2/A

Baa3/BBB-

Standard & Poor's

A3/A-

Baa1/BBB+

Baa2/BBB

A2/A

Baa3/BBB-

Fitch Ratings

LITHUN 3.375 01/22/2024 Govt3/21/164/1/164/19/1312/18/12

DateYLD_YTM_BID3 mėn.0.02958904110.02958904110.3450.38

1899.12.310.2616 mėn.0.02958904110.02958904110.50.475

4/1/160.2621 m.0.03560547950.03175890410.6950.595

3/31/160.2692 m.0.05962566840.05462566841.471.1

3/30/160.2813 m.0.16260.12381.7851.605

3/29/160.2814 m.0.29506976740.24630232562.3252.08

3/24/160.2965 m.0.41677811550.36691489362.672.465

3/23/160.2976 m.0.59345419850.54454198472.83752.7575

3/22/160.2967 m.0.73816855750.69884927073.0053.05

3/21/160.2978 m.0.8805348460.85307941653.27166666673.37

3/18/160.2959 m.1.02251215561.00688816863.8053.69

3/17/160.29610 m.1.16448946521.16069692063.8054.01

3/16/160.345

3/15/160.352

3/14/160.382

3/11/160.406

3/10/160.411

3/9/160.425

3/8/160.426

3/7/160.439

3/4/160.421

3/3/160.421

3/2/160.426

3/1/160.425

2/29/160.447

2/26/160.472

2/25/160.476

2/24/160.49

2/23/160.509

2/22/160.525

2/19/160.529

2/18/160.538

2/17/160.546

2/16/160.558

2/15/160.558

2/12/160.559

2/11/160.56

2/10/160.59

2/9/160.592

2/8/160.603

2/5/160.63

2/4/160.626

2/3/160.629

2/2/160.652

2/1/160.652

1/29/160.658

1/28/160.683

1/27/160.689

1/26/160.707

1/25/160.719

1/22/160.722

1/21/160.72

1/20/160.746

1/19/160.758

1/18/160.759

1/15/160.759

1/14/160.779

1/13/160.756

1/12/160.77

1/11/160.764

1/8/160.775

1/7/160.766

1/6/160.778

1/5/160.809

1/4/160.839

12/31/150.839

12/30/150.84

12/29/150.831

12/28/150.847

12/24/150.825

12/23/150.831

12/22/150.834

12/21/150.834

12/18/150.833

12/17/150.853

12/16/150.854

12/15/150.853

12/14/150.863

12/11/150.854

12/10/150.854

12/9/150.864

12/8/150.872

12/7/150.874

12/4/150.889

12/3/150.864

12/2/150.807

12/1/150.852

11/30/150.882

11/27/150.907

11/26/150.941

11/25/150.956

11/24/150.998

11/23/150.998

11/20/150.989

11/19/150.991

11/18/151.008

11/17/151.021

11/16/151.036

11/13/151.036

11/12/151.046

11/11/151.068

11/10/151.064

11/9/151.063

11/6/151.054

11/5/151.026

11/4/151.029

11/3/151.029

11/2/151.034

10/30/151.028

10/29/151.04

10/28/151.028

10/27/151.029

10/26/151.056

10/23/151.06

10/22/151.048

10/21/151.079

10/20/151.06

10/19/151.052

10/16/151.041

10/15/151.04

10/14/151.018

10/13/151.015

10/12/150.992

10/9/150.988

10/8/150.941

10/7/150.943

10/6/150.942

10/5/150.942

10/2/150.957

10/1/150.97

9/30/150.974

9/29/150.983

9/28/150.979

9/25/150.978

9/24/150.937

9/23/150.939

9/22/150.945

9/21/150.949

9/18/150.953

9/17/151.034

9/16/151.034

9/15/151.001

9/14/150.938

9/11/150.936

9/10/150.948

9/9/150.941

9/8/150.963

9/7/150.964

9/4/150.966

9/3/150.969

9/2/151.019

9/1/150.978

8/31/150.944

8/28/150.969

8/27/150.947

8/26/150.933

8/25/150.92

8/24/150.909

8/21/150.908

8/20/150.899

8/19/150.913

8/18/150.906

8/17/150.913

8/14/150.982

8/13/150.97

8/12/150.99

8/11/151.035

8/10/151.067

8/7/151.061

8/6/151.09

8/5/151.081

8/4/151.08

8/3/151.106

7/31/151.112

7/30/151.164

7/29/151.186

7/28/151.214

7/27/151.231

7/24/151.252

7/23/151.28

7/22/151.318

7/21/151.339

7/20/151.332

7/17/151.345

7/16/151.367

7/15/151.379

7/14/151.409

7/13/151.413

7/10/151.416

7/9/151.407

7/8/151.401

7/7/151.401

7/6/151.435

7/3/151.444

7/2/151.449

7/1/151.444

6/30/151.466

6/29/151.454

6/26/151.412

6/25/151.408

6/24/151.405

6/23/151.41

6/22/151.41

6/19/151.431

6/18/151.437

6/17/151.439

6/16/151.412

6/15/151.353

6/12/151.352

6/11/151.324

6/10/151.308

6/9/151.213

6/8/151.146

6/5/151.143

6/4/151.133

6/3/151.073

6/2/151.001

6/1/150.978

5/29/150.968

5/28/150.973

5/27/150.98

5/26/150.972

5/25/150.957

5/22/150.948

5/21/150.974

5/20/150.949

5/19/150.938

5/18/150.969

5/15/150.957

5/14/150.975

5/13/150.96

5/12/150.969

5/11/150.875

5/8/150.875

5/7/150.898

5/6/150.83

5/5/150.737

5/4/150.662

5/1/150.607

4/30/150.582

4/29/150.524

4/28/150.503

4/27/150.496

4/24/150.495

4/23/150.497

4/22/150.487

4/21/150.484

4/20/150.471

4/17/150.468

4/16/150.468

4/15/150.477

4/14/150.478

4/13/150.471

4/10/150.47

4/9/150.467

4/8/150.465

4/7/150.465

4/3/150.447

4/2/150.468

4/1/150.461

3/31/150.464

3/30/150.448

3/27/150.441

3/26/150.442

3/25/150.443

3/24/150.461

3/23/150.459

3/20/150.447

3/19/150.479

3/18/150.491

3/17/150.53

3/16/150.529

3/13/150.532

3/12/150.541

3/11/150.567

3/10/150.593

3/9/150.642

3/6/150.665

3/5/150.667

3/4/150.668

3/3/150.673

3/2/150.67

2/27/150.659

2/26/150.67

2/25/150.682

2/24/150.702

2/23/150.708

2/20/150.691

2/19/150.701

2/18/150.7

2/17/150.695

2/16/150.684

2/13/150.684

2/12/150.7

2/11/150.737

2/10/150.874

2/9/150.91

2/6/150.901

2/5/150.901

2/4/150.916

2/3/150.903

2/2/150.917

1/30/150.924

1/29/150.931

1/28/150.936

1/27/150.952

1/26/150.947

1/23/150.931

1/22/151

1/21/151.007

1/20/151.008

1/19/151.066

1/16/151.088

1/15/151.108

1/14/151.128

1/13/151.173

1/12/151.193

1/9/151.199

1/8/151.204

1/7/151.226

1/6/151.305

1/5/151.415

1/2/151.566

12/31/141.572

12/30/141.555

12/29/141.572

12/24/141.599

12/23/141.59

12/22/141.617

12/19/141.605

12/18/141.622

12/17/141.664

12/16/141.691

12/15/141.644

12/12/141.64

12/11/141.627

12/10/141.632

12/9/141.631

12/8/141.635

12/5/141.671

12/4/141.67

12/3/141.683

12/2/141.693

12/1/141.684

11/28/141.687

11/27/141.695

11/26/141.711

11/25/141.719

11/24/141.73

11/21/141.73

11/20/141.745

11/19/141.763

11/18/141.75

11/17/141.759

11/14/141.768

11/13/141.773

11/12/141.789

11/11/141.796

11/10/141.805

11/7/141.821

11/6/141.831

11/5/141.847

11/4/141.855

11/3/141.858

10/31/141.861

10/30/141.864

10/29/141.865

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10/24/141.865

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10/22/141.834

10/21/141.783

10/20/141.779

10/17/141.792

10/16/141.777

10/15/141.715

10/14/141.803

10/13/141.841

10/10/141.823

10/9/141.824

10/8/141.857

10/7/141.884

10/6/141.894

10/3/141.896

10/2/141.914

10/1/141.925

9/30/141.967

9/29/141.97

9/26/141.971

9/25/141.946

9/24/141.963

9/23/141.968

9/22/141.998

9/19/142.034

9/18/142.048

9/17/142.031

9/16/142.028

9/15/142.016

9/12/142.01

9/11/141.996

9/10/141.997

9/9/141.987

9/8/141.97

9/5/141.983

9/4/141.992

9/3/142.021

9/2/142.025

9/1/142.013

8/29/141.999

8/28/142.01

8/27/142.044

8/26/142.106

8/25/142.13

8/22/142.163

8/21/142.188

8/20/142.194

8/19/142.196

8/18/142.221

8/15/142.216

8/14/142.227

8/13/142.265

8/12/142.277

8/11/142.288

8/8/142.308

8/7/142.306

8/6/142.308

8/5/142.27

8/4/142.263

8/1/142.248

7/31/142.236

7/30/142.182

7/29/142.189

7/28/142.239

7/25/142.261

7/24/142.313

7/23/142.334

7/22/142.384

7/21/142.383

7/18/142.383

7/17/142.38

7/16/142.382

7/15/142.389

7/14/142.402

7/11/142.395

7/10/142.401

7/9/142.392

7/8/142.394

7/7/142.422

7/4/142.42

7/3/142.42

7/2/142.394

7/1/142.372

6/30/142.351

6/27/142.344

6/26/142.325

6/25/142.335

6/24/142.347

6/23/142.356

6/20/142.371

6/19/142.343

6/18/142.389

6/17/142.38

6/16/142.371

6/13/142.368

6/12/142.369

6/11/142.412

6/10/142.445

6/9/142.544

6/6/142.553

6/5/142.665

6/4/142.699

6/3/142.706

6/2/142.736

5/30/142.74

5/29/142.738

5/28/142.744

5/27/142.771

5/26/142.778

5/23/142.793

5/22/142.793

5/21/142.79

5/20/142.763

5/19/142.756

5/16/142.754

5/15/142.719

5/14/142.754

5/13/142.772

5/12/142.78

5/9/142.782

5/8/142.794

5/7/142.87

5/6/142.926

5/5/142.924

5/2/142.932

5/1/142.938

4/30/142.938

4/29/142.943

4/28/142.948

4/25/142.941

4/24/142.942

4/23/142.938

4/22/142.952

4/21/142.956

4/18/142.961

4/17/142.941

4/16/142.934

4/15/142.924

4/14/142.935

4/11/142.92

4/10/143.015

4/9/143.064

4/8/143.07

4/7/143.1

4/4/143.088

4/3/143.126

4/2/143.119

4/1/143.088

3/31/143.088

3/28/143.084

3/27/143.083

3/26/143.088

3/25/143.097

3/24/143.096

3/21/143.1

3/20/143.098

3/19/143.049

3/18/143.056

3/17/143.051

3/14/143.054

3/13/143.01

3/12/143.014

3/11/143.009

3/10/143.009

3/7/143.007

3/6/142.983

3/5/142.991

3/4/142.975

3/3/143.011

2/28/143.012

2/27/142.982

2/26/143.012

2/25/143.048

2/24/143.049

2/21/143.063

2/20/143.039

2/19/143.046

2/18/143.057

2/17/143.1

2/14/143.117

2/13/143.111

2/12/143.136

2/11/143.134

2/10/143.19

2/7/143.194

2/6/143.228

2/5/143.272

2/4/143.322

2/3/143.39

1/31/143.4

1/30/143.432

1/29/143.405

1/28/143.397

1/27/143.402

1/24/143.363

1/23/143.367

1/22/143.37

1/21/143.403

1/20/143.408

2016-04-01

2012-12-18

Diagrama1

39896

40042

41739

41740

42461

A3/A-

Baa1/BBB+

Baa2/BBB

A2/A

Baa3/BBB-

Standard & Poor's

8

8

8

10

10

Data

Reitingai


4/23/09A3102/24/09BBB+94/8/09BBB81/1/1240909Aa1AA+15






Baa1BBB+9

Baa2BBB8

Baa3BBB-7

Ba1BB+6

Ba2BB5

Ba3BB-4

B1B+3

B2B2

B3B-1

Caa1CCC+

Caa2CCC

Caa3CCC-

CaCC

CC

WRD

NR



2012 m.5.231059178693.913265

2013 m.4.847907934661.113636.81013

2014 m.4.383759771649.914825.17369

2015 m.3.9792725463215882.29994

2016 m.3.94709727562615859.75608








PolandA2BBB+**A-

Data



Bonds

Lapas3

A3/A-

Baa1/BBB+

Baa2/BBB

A2/A

Baa3/BBB-

Moody's

Standard & Poor's

Fitch Ratings

A3/A-

Baa1/BBB+

Baa2/BBB

A2/A

Baa3/BBB-

Moody's

A3/A-

Baa1/BBB+

Baa2/BBB

A2/A

Baa3/BBB-

Standard & Poor's

A3/A-

Baa1/BBB+

Baa2/BBB

A2/A

Baa3/BBB-

Fitch Ratings

LITHUN 3.375 01/22/2024 Govt3/21/164/1/164/19/1312/18/12


1899.12.310.2616 mėn.0.02958904110.02958904110.50.475

4/1/160.2621 m.0.03560547950.03175890410.6950.595

3/31/160.2692 m.0.05962566840.05462566841.471.1

3/30/160.2813 m.0.16260.12381.7851.605

3/29/160.2814 m.0.29506976740.24630232562.3252.08

3/24/160.2965 m.0.41677811550.36691489362.672.465

3/23/160.2976 m.0.59345419850.54454198472.83752.7575

3/22/160.2967 m.0.73816855750.69884927073.0053.05

3/21/160.2978 m.0.8805348460.85307941653.27166666673.37

3/18/160.2959 m.1.02251215561.00688816863.8053.69

3/17/160.29610 m.1.16448946521.16069692063.8054.01

3/16/160.345

3/15/160.352

3/14/160.382

3/11/160.406

3/10/160.411

3/9/160.425

3/8/160.426

3/7/160.439

3/4/160.421

3/3/160.421

3/2/160.426

3/1/160.425

2/29/160.447

2/26/160.472

2/25/160.476

2/24/160.49

2/23/160.509

2/22/160.525

2/19/160.529

2/18/160.538

2/17/160.546

2/16/160.558

2/15/160.558

2/12/160.559

2/11/160.56

2/10/160.59

2/9/160.592

2/8/160.603

2/5/160.63

2/4/160.626

2/3/160.629

2/2/160.652

2/1/160.652

1/29/160.658

1/28/160.683

1/27/160.689

1/26/160.707

1/25/160.719

1/22/160.722

1/21/160.72

1/20/160.746

1/19/160.758

1/18/160.759

1/15/160.759

1/14/160.779

1/13/160.756

1/12/160.77

1/11/160.764

1/8/160.775

1/7/160.766

1/6/160.778

1/5/160.809

1/4/160.839

12/31/150.839

12/30/150.84

12/29/150.831

12/28/150.847

12/24/150.825

12/23/150.831

12/22/150.834

12/21/150.834

12/18/150.833

12/17/150.853

12/16/150.854

12/15/150.853

12/14/150.863

12/11/150.854

12/10/150.854

12/9/150.864

12/8/150.872

12/7/150.874

12/4/150.889

12/3/150.864

12/2/150.807

12/1/150.852

11/30/150.882

11/27/150.907

11/26/150.941

11/25/150.956

11/24/150.998

11/23/150.998

11/20/150.989

11/19/150.991

11/18/151.008

11/17/151.021

11/16/151.036

11/13/151.036

11/12/151.046

11/11/151.068

11/10/151.064

11/9/151.063

11/6/151.054

11/5/151.026

11/4/151.029

11/3/151.029

11/2/151.034

10/30/151.028

10/29/151.04

10/28/151.028

10/27/151.029

10/26/151.056

10/23/151.06

10/22/151.048

10/21/151.079

10/20/151.06

10/19/151.052

10/16/151.041

10/15/151.04

10/14/151.018

10/13/151.015

10/12/150.992

10/9/150.988

10/8/150.941

10/7/150.943

10/6/150.942

10/5/150.942

10/2/150.957

10/1/150.97

9/30/150.974

9/29/150.983

9/28/150.979

9/25/150.978

9/24/150.937

9/23/150.939

9/22/150.945

9/21/150.949

9/18/150.953

9/17/151.034

9/16/151.034

9/15/151.001

9/14/150.938

9/11/150.936

9/10/150.948

9/9/150.941

9/8/150.963

9/7/150.964

9/4/150.966

9/3/150.969

9/2/151.019

9/1/150.978

8/31/150.944

8/28/150.969

8/27/150.947

8/26/150.933

8/25/150.92

8/24/150.909

8/21/150.908

8/20/150.899

8/19/150.913

8/18/150.906

8/17/150.913

8/14/150.982

8/13/150.97

8/12/150.99

8/11/151.035

8/10/151.067

8/7/151.061

8/6/151.09

8/5/151.081

8/4/151.08

8/3/151.106

7/31/151.112

7/30/151.164

7/29/151.186

7/28/151.214

7/27/151.231

7/24/151.252

7/23/151.28

7/22/151.318

7/21/151.339

7/20/151.332

7/17/151.345

7/16/151.367

7/15/151.379

7/14/151.409

7/13/151.413

7/10/151.416

7/9/151.407

7/8/151.401

7/7/151.401

7/6/151.435

7/3/151.444

7/2/151.449

7/1/151.444

6/30/151.466

6/29/151.454

6/26/151.412

6/25/151.408

6/24/151.405

6/23/151.41

6/22/151.41

6/19/151.431

6/18/151.437

6/17/151.439

6/16/151.412

6/15/151.353

6/12/151.352

6/11/151.324

6/10/151.308

6/9/151.213

6/8/151.146

6/5/151.143

6/4/151.133

6/3/151.073

6/2/151.001

6/1/150.978

5/29/150.968

5/28/150.973

5/27/150.98

5/26/150.972

5/25/150.957

5/22/150.948

5/21/150.974

5/20/150.949

5/19/150.938

5/18/150.969

5/15/150.957

5/14/150.975

5/13/150.96

5/12/150.969

5/11/150.875

5/8/150.875

5/7/150.898

5/6/150.83

5/5/150.737

5/4/150.662

5/1/150.607

4/30/150.582

4/29/150.524

4/28/150.503

4/27/150.496

4/24/150.495

4/23/150.497

4/22/150.487

4/21/150.484

4/20/150.471

4/17/150.468

4/16/150.468

4/15/150.477

4/14/150.478

4/13/150.471

4/10/150.47

4/9/150.467

4/8/150.465

4/7/150.465

4/3/150.447

4/2/150.468

4/1/150.461

3/31/150.464

3/30/150.448

3/27/150.441

3/26/150.442

3/25/150.443

3/24/150.461

3/23/150.459

3/20/150.447

3/19/150.479

3/18/150.491

3/17/150.53

3/16/150.529

3/13/150.532

3/12/150.541

3/11/150.567

3/10/150.593

3/9/150.642

3/6/150.665

3/5/150.667

3/4/150.668

3/3/150.673

3/2/150.67

2/27/150.659

2/26/150.67

2/25/150.682

2/24/150.702

2/23/150.708

2/20/150.691

2/19/150.701

2/18/150.7

2/17/150.695

2/16/150.684

2/13/150.684

2/12/150.7

2/11/150.737

2/10/150.874

2/9/150.91

2/6/150.901

2/5/150.901

2/4/150.916

2/3/150.903

2/2/150.917

1/30/150.924

1/29/150.931

1/28/150.936

1/27/150.952

1/26/150.947

1/23/150.931

1/22/151

1/21/151.007

1/20/151.008

1/19/151.066

1/16/151.088

1/15/151.108

1/14/151.128

1/13/151.173

1/12/151.193

1/9/151.199

1/8/151.204

1/7/151.226

1/6/151.305

1/5/151.415

1/2/151.566

12/31/141.572

12/30/141.555

12/29/141.572

12/24/141.599

12/23/141.59

12/22/141.617

12/19/141.605

12/18/141.622

12/17/141.664

12/16/141.691

12/15/141.644

12/12/141.64

12/11/141.627

12/10/141.632

12/9/141.631

12/8/141.635

12/5/141.671

12/4/141.67

12/3/141.683

12/2/141.693

12/1/141.684

11/28/141.687

11/27/141.695

11/26/141.711

11/25/141.719

11/24/141.73

11/21/141.73

11/20/141.745

11/19/141.763

11/18/141.75

11/17/141.759

11/14/141.768

11/13/141.773

11/12/141.789

11/11/141.796

11/10/141.805

11/7/141.821

11/6/141.831

11/5/141.847

11/4/141.855

11/3/141.858

10/31/141.861

10/30/141.864

10/29/141.865

10/28/141.862

10/27/141.861

10/24/141.865

10/23/141.864

10/22/141.834

10/21/141.783

10/20/141.779

10/17/141.792

10/16/141.777

10/15/141.715

10/14/141.803

10/13/141.841

10/10/141.823

10/9/141.824

10/8/141.857

10/7/141.884

10/6/141.894

10/3/141.896

10/2/141.914

10/1/141.925

9/30/141.967

9/29/141.97

9/26/141.971

9/25/141.946

9/24/141.963

9/23/141.968

9/22/141.998

9/19/142.034

9/18/142.048

9/17/142.031

9/16/142.028

9/15/142.016

9/12/142.01

9/11/141.996

9/10/141.997

9/9/141.987

9/8/141.97

9/5/141.983

9/4/141.992

9/3/142.021

9/2/142.025

9/1/142.013

8/29/141.999

8/28/142.01

8/27/142.044

8/26/142.106

8/25/142.13

8/22/142.163

8/21/142.188

8/20/142.194

8/19/142.196

8/18/142.221

8/15/142.216

8/14/142.227

8/13/142.265

8/12/142.277

8/11/142.288

8/8/142.308

8/7/142.306

8/6/142.308

8/5/142.27

8/4/142.263

8/1/142.248

7/31/142.236

7/30/142.182

7/29/142.189

7/28/142.239

7/25/142.261

7/24/142.313

7/23/142.334

7/22/142.384

7/21/142.383

7/18/142.383

7/17/142.38

7/16/142.382

7/15/142.389

7/14/142.402

7/11/142.395

7/10/142.401

7/9/142.392

7/8/142.394

7/7/142.422

7/4/142.42

7/3/142.42

7/2/142.394

7/1/142.372

6/30/142.351

6/27/142.344

6/26/142.325

6/25/142.335

6/24/142.347

6/23/142.356

6/20/142.371

6/19/142.343

6/18/142.389

6/17/142.38

6/16/142.371

6/13/142.368

6/12/142.369

6/11/142.412

6/10/142.445

6/9/142.544

6/6/142.553

6/5/142.665

6/4/142.699

6/3/142.706

6/2/142.736

5/30/142.74

5/29/142.738

5/28/142.744

5/27/142.771

5/26/142.778

5/23/142.793

5/22/142.793

5/21/142.79

5/20/142.763

5/19/142.756

5/16/142.754

5/15/142.719

5/14/142.754

5/13/142.772

5/12/142.78

5/9/142.782

5/8/142.794

5/7/142.87

5/6/142.926

5/5/142.924

5/2/142.932

5/1/142.938

4/30/142.938

4/29/142.943

4/28/142.948

4/25/142.941

4/24/142.942

4/23/142.938

4/22/142.952

4/21/142.956

4/18/142.961

4/17/142.941

4/16/142.934

4/15/142.924

4/14/142.935

4/11/142.92

4/10/143.015

4/9/143.064

4/8/143.07

4/7/143.1

4/4/143.088

4/3/143.126

4/2/143.119

4/1/143.088

3/31/143.088

3/28/143.084

3/27/143.083

3/26/143.088

3/25/143.097

3/24/143.096

3/21/143.1

3/20/143.098

3/19/143.049

3/18/143.056

3/17/143.051

3/14/143.054

3/13/143.01

3/12/143.014

3/11/143.009

3/10/143.009

3/7/143.007

3/6/142.983

3/5/142.991

3/4/142.975

3/3/143.011

2/28/143.012

2/27/142.982

2/26/143.012

2/25/143.048

2/24/143.049

2/21/143.063

2/20/143.039

2/19/143.046

2/18/143.057

2/17/143.1

2/14/143.117

2/13/143.111

2/12/143.136

2/11/143.134

2/10/143.19

2/7/143.194

2/6/143.228

2/5/143.272

2/4/143.322

2/3/143.39

1/31/143.4

1/30/143.432

1/29/143.405

1/28/143.397

1/27/143.402

1/24/143.363

1/23/143.367

1/22/143.37

1/21/143.403

1/20/143.408

2016-04-01

2012-12-18

Diagrama1

39911

41368

41369

41814

41815

42461

A3/A-

Baa1/BBB+

Baa2/BBB

A2/A

Baa3/BBB-

Fitch Ratings

8

8

9

9

10

10

Data

Reitingai


4/23/09A3102/24/09BBB+94/8/09BBB81/1/1240909Aa1AA+15






Baa1BBB+9

Baa2BBB8

Baa3BBB-7

Ba1BB+6

Ba2BB5

Ba3BB-4

B1B+3

B2B2

B3B-1

Caa1CCC+

Caa2CCC

Caa3CCC-

CaCC

CC

WRD

NR



2012 m.5.231059178693.913265

2013 m.4.847907934661.113636.81013

2014 m.4.383759771649.914825.17369

2015 m.3.9792725463215882.29994

2016 m.3.94709727562615859.75608








PolandA2BBB+**A-

Data



Bonds

Lapas3

A3/A-

Baa1/BBB+

Baa2/BBB

A2/A

Baa3/BBB-

Moody's

Standard & Poor's

Fitch Ratings

A3/A-

Baa1/BBB+

Baa2/BBB

A2/A

Baa3/BBB-

Moody's

A3/A-

Baa1/BBB+

Baa2/BBB

A2/A

Baa3/BBB-

Standard & Poor's

A3/A-

Baa1/BBB+

Baa2/BBB

A2/A

Baa3/BBB-

Fitch Ratings

LITHUN 3.375 01/22/2024 Govt3/21/164/1/164/19/1312/18/12


1899.12.310.2616 mėn.0.02958904110.02958904110.50.475

4/1/160.2621 m.0.03560547950.03175890410.6950.595

3/31/160.2692 m.0.05962566840.05462566841.471.1

3/30/160.2813 m.0.16260.12381.7851.605

3/29/160.2814 m.0.29506976740.24630232562.3252.08

3/24/160.2965 m.0.41677811550.36691489362.672.465

3/23/160.2976 m.0.59345419850.54454198472.83752.7575

3/22/160.2967 m.0.73816855750.69884927073.0053.05

3/21/160.2978 m.0.8805348460.85307941653.27166666673.37

3/18/160.2959 m.1.02251215561.00688816863.8053.69

3/17/160.29610 m.1.16448946521.16069692063.8054.01

3/16/160.345

3/15/160.352

3/14/160.382

3/11/160.406

3/10/160.411

3/9/160.425

3/8/160.426

3/7/160.439

3/4/160.421

3/3/160.421

3/2/160.426

3/1/160.425

2/29/160.447

2/26/160.472

2/25/160.476

2/24/160.49

2/23/160.509

2/22/160.525

2/19/160.529

2/18/160.538

2/17/160.546

2/16/160.558

2/15/160.558

2/12/160.559

2/11/160.56

2/10/160.59

2/9/160.592

2/8/160.603

2/5/160.63

2/4/160.626

2/3/160.629

2/2/160.652

2/1/160.652

1/29/160.658

1/28/160.683

1/27/160.689

1/26/160.707

1/25/160.719

1/22/160.722

1/21/160.72

1/20/160.746

1/19/160.758

1/18/160.759

1/15/160.759

1/14/160.779

1/13/160.756

1/12/160.77

1/11/160.764

1/8/160.775

1/7/160.766

1/6/160.778

1/5/160.809

1/4/160.839

12/31/150.839

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1/22/151

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4/7/143.1

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2/20/143.039

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2/18/143.057

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2/14/143.117

2/13/143.111

2/12/143.136

2/11/143.134

2/10/143.19

2/7/143.194

2/6/143.228

2/5/143.272

2/4/143.322

2/3/143.39

1/31/143.4

1/30/143.432

1/29/143.405

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1/24/143.363

1/23/143.367

1/22/143.37

1/21/143.403

1/20/143.408

2016-04-01

2012-12-18

Pending National Challenges: Public Finance Quality Enhancement

14Source: Eurostat, preliminary data for 2015 by Statistics Lithuania

Tax Revenue to GDP Ratio, % of GDP

38,7 39,039,3 39,3 39,2 38,5 38,5 38,9

39,6 39,940,0

39,2 39,4 39,9 40,0 39,6 39,3 39,2 39,740,7

41,2 41,5

29,3 29,5 30,4 30,430,9 30,6 28,7

27,6 27,3 27,428,0

29,5*

27,8 28,128,9 28,4 28,1 27,5 28,0

27,9 28,7 28,729,2

31,330,1 30,7

31,4 31,6

35,1

33,531,7 31,7 31,7

32,5

25,0

27,0

29,0

31,0

33,0

35,0

37,0

39,0

41,0

43,0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU-28EA - 19LithuaniaLatviaEstonia

• Better tax revenue administration• More effective and efficient public expenditure• More communication to society on where tax revenue is spent

Thank you for your attention

Fiscal rules in LithuaniaSlide Number 2Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8More Space for Expenditure Growth If Structural Reforms Are Being Implemented Slide Number 10Slide Number 11General Government Debt, % of GDPSlide Number 13Pending National Challenges: Public Finance Quality Enhancement��Thank you for �your attention

Documents

Fiscal rules in Lithuania - Valstybės kontrolė · 2016-06-07 · Fiscal rules in Lithuania 3 June, 2016 Algimantas Rimkūnas. Vice Minister, Ministry of Finance of Lithuania