First Steps in Predictive Modeling & Analytics Presented By: Mark Mathyer, Greater Chicago Food...
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First Steps in Predictive Modeling & Analytics Presented By: Mark Mathyer, Greater Chicago Food Depository Tré Geoghegan, Museum of Science and Industry
First Steps in Predictive Modeling & Analytics Presented
By: Mark Mathyer, Greater Chicago Food Depository Tr Geoghegan,
Museum of Science and Industry Pamela Jenkins, Museum of Science
and Industry
Slide 2
Defining Predictive Analytics Predictive analytics uses various
techniques, including data mining, statistics and modeling, to make
predictions about future actions. The model will identify patterns
and relationships that influence actions. GOAL: Maximize
fundraising results Source:
http://www.predictiveanalyticstoday.com/what-is-predictive-analytics/http://www.predictiveanalyticstoday.com/what-is-predictive-analytics/
Slide 3
Do I Need to Be an Expert? Prospect research experience?
Statistics experience? Data mining, querying experience? Software
expert? Visualization, reporting export? In-depth knowledge of your
data?
Slide 4
Basic Steps Define your project Collect data (two or more
resources) Data analysis (cleanse, transform and model) Statistics
(validate and test hypotheses) Deploy the model (make business
decisions) Source:
http://www.predictiveanalyticstoday.com/what-is-predictive-analytics/http://www.predictiveanalyticstoday.com/what-is-predictive-analytics/
Slide 5
Figuring Out Your Goal Build a model to predict a constituents
behavior Which prospects are likely to give a 6-figure gift? Which
alumni are likely to respond to telemarketing or email? Which
prospects are likely to attend our fundraising event? Design an
analysis to describe our donors What are our donor demographics,
giving patterns, capacities, affinity, etc.? How can we target more
prospects like them? Evaluate a program, mailing, campaign or
project Is our annual fund mail campaign effective gaining and
retaining donors, increasing gift amounts, etc.?
Slide 6
What Data Do I Have and Need? Assess your current data
warehouse(s) Are the records accurate? i.e. home address field
contains the business address Are the records consistent? data
entry rules, historical info, etc. Are the records complete?
marital status, gender, age, address, giving, event attendance,
graduation info, student activities, membership status,
relationships, employment, etc. How do I get the information I dont
have? Do my colleagues have separate databases or spreadsheets?
Purchase data: ages, wealth indicators, interests, ethnicities,
households with children, etc.
Slide 7
Resources and Tools Who can assist, mentor or work with me?
Data team/IT team? Annual Giving team? Prospect Research team? What
tools do I need? Analytics software in-house modeling Unrestricted
access to data Plenty of time Easy to Read Books Fundraising
Analytics: Using Data to Guide Strategy, Joshua M. Birkholz (AFP,
2008) Data Mining for Fund Raisers: How to Use Simple Statistics to
Find Gold in Your Donor DatabaseEven if You Hate Statistics, Peter
B. Wylie (CASE, 2004)
Slide 8
What We Did and What We Learned 2013 AF Predictive Model
Slide 9
Slide 10
Cost Savings If following the predictive model, the savings for
the mail campaign would be roughly 50%!!! Sample mailing production
and postage costs: $10,000 expense reduced to $5,000 to capture
roughly the same fundraising total l
Slide 11
Analysis Profile DifferencesAF DonorGiving Society RE DataGift
Funds - Capital/ExhibitsGift Funds - Education & Collections
Census DataPopulation More FemalesPopulation More Males Avg House
Value $500,000 - $749,999Home Property Value $1 Million and Up
Purchasing Power $100,000Purchasing power $500,000 Affected One
More than the OtherColumbian Ball GiftFirst Gift NOT AF/MB Member
Events GiftDistance from MSI Fundraising Events GiftAge Event
Response FlagAction Flag Days Since Last GiftMembership Standing,
Active Gender, Male Years Between Gifts (negative) Ethnicity,
Unknown Ethnicity, IndianEthnicity, Arab Ethnicity, Jewish
Ethnicity, Scottish Ethnicity, African American Ethnicity
Lithuanian Ethnicity, Swedish
Slide 12
Slide 13
Realistic Plan Allot enough time: how does this affect my
workload? Build a budget Leadership support when do I ask for the
green light Ooops I started and now Im struggling now what?
Slide 14
Next Steps at MSI Expand the number of analytics users Use
predictive modeling and analytics for our membership program Apply
predictive modeling and analytics for corporate fundraising (in
addition to individuals)
Slide 15
Follow Up Mark Mathyer Director of Donor Services, Greater
Chicago Food Depository [email protected] Tr Geoghegan Prospect
Research Analyst, Museum of Science and Industry
[email protected]; 773-947-3737 Pamela Jenkins Stewardship and
Database Coordinator, Museum of Science and Industry
[email protected]; 773-753-2762