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First Half of 2012
Performance Roadshow
Warsaw, September 2012
Automotive Market Performance (1)
Source: LMC Automotive
In June year-to-date sales were 7,2% below 2011 level. However, production which is the
main driver of company sales, dropped by 7,5% in the same period. The market shows
much higher stability since 2009.
Automotive Market Performance (2)
(in thousands of units)
First half of 2012 First half of 2011 Change in %
Cars sold (W. Europe) 6 474 6 975 -7,2%
Cars manufactured (W. Europe) 6 218 6 725 -7,5%
Difference 256 250
ACE Auto parts 16 754 15 850 +5,7%
Year-to-date production of cars in Western Europe was some lower than sales
-256 thousand cars and this difference was maintained in comparison with H1
2011 (250 thousand cars).
5,7% increase in number of units produced by the Group automotive
companies significantly contrasts with 7,5% decline of new cars production in
Western Europe.
The main drivers of ACE volume sales are: the new product range in the alu
segment and high demand for nodular iron products due to our strong market
position and also due to direct export of alu and iron brake system products
outside Europe to ease current capacity and quality shortages there.
Source: LMC Automotive, ACE
Company Sales Volume (1)
Our company sales, driven by high demand for nodular iron products, new alu projects and export were again above the market.
Source: ACE data and
LMC Automotive for Western
European market
Company Sales Volume (2)
• Total ACE volume increased by 4,3%
• 5,8% volume increase allocated in nodular iron (Spain) mainly due to
increasing demand in the supply chain, and 5,6% volume growth in
aluminium (Poland). But new projects (TMC, front caliper and iron machining)
grew by over 30% and their share in total volume sales will be further
increasing in 2012 and following years.
• Grey iron – the non automotive business - showed nearly 17% decline in
volume sales. However in weight volumes were some lower by 15%.
Sales volumes in million pieces First half of 2012 First half of 2011
Nodular iron castings 12,8 12,1
Grey iron castings 0,8 1,0
Aluminium castings
New family products
2,8
1,2
2,9
0,9
Total products sold 17,6 16,9
Company Sales Value (1)
Over 1% increase of turnover for the corresponding periods. There is a small difference between value and volume growth on average basis.
First half of 2012 % First half of 2011 %
Sales of products 51 388 96% 50 980 97%
Sales of goods and materials 1 837 4% 1 694 3%
Total sales revenues 53 225 100% 52 674 100%
Company Sales Value (2)
First half of
2012
% First half of
2011
%
Sales of nodular iron castings 27 556 53,6% 24 983 49,0%
Sales of grey iron castings 6 672 13,0% 7 814 15,3%
Sales of aluminium castings
New family products
12 500
4 659
24,3%
9,1%
14 425
3 759
28,3%
7,4%
Total sales of products 51 388 100% 50 980 100%
•However, breakdown by segments: year-on-year basis sales increased significantly only
in one automotive plant – in Spain – while sales in Poland and Czech declined.
•The growth of 10,3% was recorded in the nodular iron segment while the
aluminium segment sales declined by 5,6%. In the nodular iron segment revenues
growth was driven by higher volumes, stable raw material prices and higher energy
surcharged to the customers.
While the aluminium segment was impacted by significantly lower mix, including % of
machined parts but also by significantly lower prices of alu. Turnover from new family
products grew by over 23,9%.
•In Feramo the revenues value declined by over 14% as a result of lower volumes.
Iron Scrap Market
Steel scrap prices were on average around 20 EURO/t lower in H1 2012 than in
2011 (4,5% decline) adversly impacting sales value but having positive impact
on profits. In the following months scrap prices should remain stable or slightly
decline.
Source: CAEF
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Scrap prices & CAEF Index
Scrap prices CAEF Index
Aluminium Market
Aluminium prices in H1 were on average on a declining path comparing to the
end of 2011. And y-on-y aluminium prices declined even stronger by some
20% also impacting negatively revenues value.
ACE Consolidated Performance (1)
First half of 2012 First half of 2011 Change in %
Revenues from Sales 53 225 52 674 1,0%
Gross Profit 9 385 10 321 -9,1%
Operating Profit 2 094 2 750 -23,9%
EBITDA 4 633 5 699 -18,7%
Net Profit 1 130 1 752 -35,5%
Comparison of consolidated performance on y-to-y basis shows slight improvement on sales level and deterioration of operating margins due to three main reasons: 13% decline of machined parts, drop of grey iron sales by 17% and restart of the third line in Spain producing temporary inefficiencies.
The impact of the financial items in H1 2012 was negative mostly due to weakening of PLN and CZK versus euro, deteriorating bottom line performance. Revaluation of outstanding balances reflects only a fair valuation and not necessarily cash flow management. Revaluation of future contracts had no impact on P&L and was done through the Equity.
ACE Consolidated Performance (2)
Comparing with the previous quarter, sales value decreased by 4.3% following 5.4% decrease of volumes q-on-q (5.9% decrease of volumes for automotive companies). This is a direct consequence of lower car production in Q2 vs. Q1 2012 (8.1% decrease in Western Europe).
But thanks to improvements of operational performance (mainly in Feramo and Spain) Q2 showed better profitability on all levels except the bottom line due to previously described negative financial impact of exchange rates.
Q2 of 2012 Q1 of 2012 Change in %
Q2 ’12/Q1 ‘12
Revenues from Sales 26 023 _____ 27 202 _____ -4.3%
Gross Profit 5 104 19.6% 4 281 15.7% 19.2%
Operating Profit 1 304 5.0% 790 2.9% 65.1%
EBITDA 2 518 9.7% 2 115 7.8% 19.1%
Net Profit 345 1.3% 785 2.9% -56.1%
ACE Consolidated Performance (3) Profit Drivers for automotive companies
• Higher Volumes comparing with H1 2011. The growth results from growing demand
stimulated by export of cars, recovery of inventories and a strong market position.
The growth was allocated mainly in the nodular iron business and the new family of
aluminium products.
• Sales mix in aluminium, declined in 2012 versus 2011 with machining declining by
13% in volume terms. New growing projects mostly do not include machining.
• Adversely, y-on-y depreciation of Polish zloty in 2012 had a positive impact on
profitability - on operating levels + EUR 0.5m.
• On top of this, PLN also slightly depreciated since December 2011 affecting
negatively our P&L. Negative value of all hedging contracts in the Balance Sheet as
of the end of June 2012 was EUR 423k.
ACE Consolidated Performance (4) Impact of non automotive company (Feramo)
• Operating result: with above 6.7m euro of H1 2012 sales is a significant revenues generator in the Group (13% of consolidated sales). Around 17% decline in terms of volume units and 15% decline in weight versus the same period of 2011. Despite visible improvement of the sales level in Q2 the company in full H1 was operating below a break-even level mainly due to a very weak results of Q1 2012.
• There is no explanation of such a drop of sales other than lower seasonal demand. Starting from Q2 demand improves and in the following months the plant should not generate similar losses.
• Feramo is in a great deal protected against increases of raw material prices and has a CAEF index based surcharge agreements in place.
ACE Consolidated Performance (5)
The operating generation of cash in H1 2012 was slightly positive at around EUR 192k mainly as a result of growing working capital driven by higher volumes and production activity after winter holidays.
An impact of investing activities of EUR 3.3m reflected CEE capex. Financial activities took out EUR 3.2m of cash mainly due to repayment of the bank loan.
The cash position at the end of the period was still very positive, and debt structure very safe. In the end of June 2012 cash position reached EUR 14.2m. Net debt at the end of the period was EUR 4.1m.
in € mln
Source: ACE data
Outlook 2012 (1)
In the end of June 2012 the full year sales forecast went down to -6,2%. In July 2012 LMC Automotive downgradedits full year 2012 sales forecast to -7,3%
In the left chart below we can see the trend of this forecast month by month
The latest PwC Autofacts estimates for 2012 production of new cars to show 5.3% decline (-3.3% including CEE) in comparison with the previous year, alsodowngrading previous forecast.
Source: LMC Automotive
-7,00%
-6,00%
-5,00%
-4,00%
-3,00%
-2,00%
-1,00%
0,00%Aug '11 Sep '11 Oct '11 Nov 11 Dec '11 Jan '12 Feb '12 Mar '12 Apr '12 May '12 Jun '12
2011 2012
Outlook 2012 (2)
Source: PwC Autofacts, July 2012
PwC Autofacts in its latest report from July 2012 forecasts a decline of production
in the EU countries but still growth in the CEE region.
ACE now produces parts also for its customers operating on markets outside
Europe potentially offseting a gap in local demand.
Sharp rebound of the European market is expected since 2013 and following
years.
Outlook 2012 (3)
The main driver of the current year results will be volume, highly depending on European automotive market performance:
• SALES: Despite lowering of the automotive market our prospects show some volume growth of customer’s orders in 2012 with some potential impact on ACE’s operations:
– Higher volumes in exchange for lower margins (-)
– Stronger market performance in the first half of 2012 than in the second (+)
– Declining % and volumes of machining with a profitable machining margin (-)
– Search for new projects to fulfill current capacity in grey iron and machining (+)
– Potential for volume and market share growth in future (+)
– Growing exports to markets outside Europe (including also components) (+)
– Higher capacity of the alu casting division since the beginning of 2010 (front caliper) (+)
Expectations for full 2012 stated in the Strategy 2012-2015 assume ACE Group sales volume growth outperforming the market.
• COSTS: Short term profitability depends on iron scrap prices movements but since improvements of some contracts were achieved the impact is somehow limited. PLN /Euro exchange rate has still impact on FX.
• FINANCIAL ITEMS The impact of valuation of active forward contracts is not longer visible in the P&L account but in the BS. Financial items might be impacted (positively or negatively) by FX effect linked with revaluation of some balance sheet items especially visible on the bottom line.
• CASH POSITION Higher sales should result in further cash generation. However some decrease of the cash in expected due to the CEE investment program and upgrade of Fuchosa efficiency.
Near Future Plans
• FERAMO GROWTH: Investment programme to increase nodular iron capacity by over 50%. Revised capex of up to EUR 9 m allowing to increase volume from 15k to 35k tones and triple revenues from sales in 4 years.
The advancement of the project is mostly in line with the schedule and some delays which accrued in April should not have impact on the final deadline.
• Nodular Iron : Full capacity of two lines in 2011. From beginning of 2012 the third line had been in operation to meet the demand but was creating some inefficieces. Modernisation of the second line was sheduled and successfully completed in August. The upgraded line will be operational starting from the second week of September.
• Aluminium GROWTH: Front calipers and iron machining already started in 2009 with a massive production commenced in January 2010 and jointly with TMC are gaining important share in the alu segment. Important commercial challenges from the customer side to be decided.
• New iron products – to utilise a new capacity at Feramo the company already signed some commercial agreements with new customers to start production in Jan 2013. Fuchosa transfers nodular iron technology to Feramo and will support the company at R&D level
• Grey Iron: Saturate current capacity and decrease technical losses.
• Acquisitions – Some new targets under consideration. There is a good chance for its completion in 2012.