First Fire Theory Analysis

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    Thefirst fire theory.Lets explore he possibilityof the first fire theory.The TRC transcript of the first couple of hoursas describedby the forensicexpert svery nteresting.My takewould be asfollows.All timesUTC as his s the official imeused or flight operations.If the flt haddirectclearancerom positionELATO (Al)- ISBAN (R214) hen he following is feasible:JEPPFE 4/3 {Hn-\ used as referenceCRP: compulsory eportingpoint480 TAS used or purposeof exercise.Routing TIA-A I -ELAT O DCT- SBAN-R2 14-SIIKAR-R2 03TIA-ELATO 281/480*60:35 minCRPRCTP/VHHHFIRELATO-ISBAN 2661460*60:33 min CRPISBAN-BAOSH 1351480*60:17 minCRPBAOSH-DIINAR 1971480*60:25 minCRPVHHFWVTS FIRDLTNAR-SUKAR113i480*60 14min CRP VHHH AOtuWTS ACCThis hen establishes here he acft would be about2 hrs nto the flisht.SUKAR-KIBAG 1151480*60 14 minCRPKIBAG-AROGU 106/480*60: 13min CRPThis hen s the positionof the flight 2:31HelderbergATD |423UTC (TRC transcript)ELATO 1458 SBAN BAOSH 1548DUNAR 1613SUKAR I627KIBAG 164I AROGU 1654A CVR transcript hat hasa position eportat anyone of the abovepositionswould confirm the CVR burnt out dueto thefirst fire and would alsoconfirm that dinnera described n the TRC transcript s being served.Note the closeproximity ofthe CRPsalong the airways R214 and R203. The lengthof a dinner servicedependson the classbeingserved.Thecockpit crew would havebeen servedout of the Upper Deck galleyand could havebeenserved anytime after level flighthadbeenachieved.Take DUNAR as the 2-hr point-DIINAR to Hong Kong 530 nmDLINAR tO MANIL A 420 NMDTINARto Bangkok550 nmDUNAR to Singapore 80 nmAll via airwavs.

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    DLTNAR o Mumbai (Bombay)2256 un GCDLTNAR o Diego Garcia 2677 GCDUNAR to Mauritius 3808 nm GC

    SAA had alreadydiverted nto BKK with an engineproblembefore 1987 HKG was/isa normal destination or SAA.Manila, there s Clark Airforce Base(the CIA/US theory). According to the TRC transcript, SAA would be embarrassedby inspectionof the cargo n a hostileairport should he flt havediverted.Yet no embarrassment hould he Mauritius authorities nspect his aircraftwhich is showing fire damage.At this point,2hrs out of TPE, according o the TRC transcript, he fire now undercontrol and he crew of SA295receive nstructionsoproceedon to MRU andnot to divert. Unless he passengers nd crew on landingat MRU,are all going to be bought oflnobody s evergoing to talk abouthow they survived anonboard ire. So much for theforeign airport theory.

    This is now an aircraft without any further fire fighting equipment eft. Therewas alargedry chemical ire extinguisher n themain deck cargohold along with various smallerH2AlDry chemicalbottles ocated hroughout he passengerabin.Onemust assume hat all of the fire fighting equipmenthasbeenused up and here arenoreserves. hiscrew facesanother8hours n a smoke illed aircraft with no more 02 (according o the TRC transcript).Whateveryou want to think, I do not believe hat faced with the above,CaptainUys and his crew would have continuedon to MRU hada fire broken out about 2 hrs after take offfrom TPE.2) TheCIA/US theory s alsoa figmentof.... Examine t. Clark Airforce Baseat ManilaandDiego Garcia, wo en routeairportscontrolledby the US do not even eature n the CIA/US theory. f the CIA/USwere involved what better waythan to get the aircraft into an airport where the pax can be looked after by the bestmedicalaid possibleand at the sametimeget rid of the offendingcargo.This option s not usedbecauset did not exist.For the record SAA also diverted ntoDiego Garcia with a 8707 with engine roubles.The SAA B7O7 leet was replacedearlyn the seventies.n thosedays heroute o HKG was via SEY with theB707.

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    3) The dinner heory needsa bit more clarification. Crews eat at all hours. However,therewas a practice n SAA at thattime of servinga snack o pax and crew prior to landingat an ntermediatestopover.MRU being the intermediatestopover, his is what is being servedas his was normally servedshortly beforeTODdependingon the pax load andwhenthe cockpit crew wanted theirs.This snack or the cockpit crew was supplementedwith the fruit basketand thecheese ray from the previousdinner service.

    This was a tragedy or all concerned.Let there be no doubt that everyonewould like the truth about he causeof thisaccident o be revealed.Some undamentalcorrections or the TRC forensicexpert.TPE UTC plus8 therefore1423UTC:2223LTJNB UTC plus2 therefore1423UTC: l623LT