Fire Cover Review (FCR)

Blaenau Gwent

Briefing for Scrutiny Committee

What is a FCR?

• A FCR is a review of fire cover across an area to ensure that the Service has an appropriate level of fire cover in the right areas to meet the current risks facing its communities

• In simple terms, ensuring our assets are matched against risk; right people, right place at the right time and still being able to respond to 6 simultaneous major incidents

• Nature of business – cannot plan for every single risk that may occur – will always be the “what if this happened” question - this is why we invest in education, prevention and risk reduction; 71% less fires in 13 years, 50% less fire deaths and injuries in 10 years. Applauded by the Williams Commission and leading the way in understanding demand management

Why do we need to do a FCR?• Not completed since mid 80’s or formation of SWFRS in 1996 when 3 services amalgamated• Change in road networks and demographics• Change in Industry• New Census information available• Ensure assets are matched against risk• Vehicles can respond more quickly• Notified of incidents at earlier stage and improved mobilising systems (nearest appliance)• Incident numbers have fallen drastically• 2002/03 to 2011/12 reduced all fires attended from 20,275 to 8,760 reduction of nearly 57%• 2002/03 to 2011/12 accidental fire fatalities in dwellings 33% reduction.• In 2002/03 attended 1523 RTC’s and in 2011/12 1083, reduction of nearly 29%.• Financial context is a side factor –reducing budgets so need to ensure efficient use of resources

but not the driver of a FCR – NB phase 1 Cardiff proposals• Service subject to continuous improvement – if assets not properly aligned to current risks,

current data and available information, not serving the best needs of our 1.4m population we serve

How do we do a FCR?

•Historic number of fire, road traffic and other emergency calls in the area

•The location of other appliances in the area

•Road networks and travel times

•Average response times

•Housing and other developments

•Flood plains

•Proposed developments

•Supporting call profiles where stations attended outside of their station area

•Turn in times

•Site specific information

•Demographics – both current and projected through consensus data

•Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation

•MOSAIC risk information

•National and local proposals

•Local and professional knowledge

•Service demands both within South Wales and nationally (eg flooding)

•Cross border impacts

•Fire Service Emergency Cover (FESC) Model

•Professional judgement – Maesteg, Hirwaun etc

What is FSEC?• Toolkit provided in 2004 by central government and acknowledged tool of Welsh

Government in early versions of framework

• Used for variety of fire specific functions:

≈ Support targeting of HFSC & other risk reduction initiatives≈ Provide baseline PI calculations≈ Identify resilience cover≈ Identify catchment areas for retained firefighters≈ Confirm best response and special appliance cover

• Enables Service to measure risk in robust and consistent manner

• Predicts impact of community safety measures on risk

• Predicts impact of fire service response on risk

• Enables analysis of data to effectively match resources against risk

• NB: Not only tool – eg Bridgend proposals to reduce cover in Maesteg in Phase 1

Why is the FCR phased?

• Considers impact across the whole of South Wales as well as unitary area

• Impact of one area’s proposals on modelling does NOT mean if in later phases is likely to take more of a hit

• Phase 1 – Vale of Glamorgan, Bridgend & Cardiff

• Phase 2 – Blaenau Gwent, Newport, Torfaen & Monmouthshire

• Phase 3 – Rhondda Cynon Taf, Caerphilly & Merthyr

What can the outcomes of a FCR be?

• Retain the status quo

• Changes to appliance crewing arrangements

• Changes of duty system

• Removal of appliances

• Removal of stations

• Amalgamation of stations

• Relocation of stations

• Additional stations

What are the Blaenau Gwent Proposals?

The review has identified it would be possible to close Blaina

Fire & Rescue Station with no increase in the level of risk

Why were the Blaenau Gwent Proposals generated?

This graph represents the

number of incidents that occurred within the station administrative border for Blaina Fire Station and does not represent the total number of incidents attended by Blaina Station.

1179

714

573 577

459

780

431490

375

276

516

344

466

331

226

1 8 2 3 10

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Ebbw Vale Brynmawr Abertillery Tredegar Blaina

Total incidents Attended By Blaenau Gwent Pumping Appliances April 2010 to March 2012

Total Incidents Attended by Pumping Appliances

Incidents in South Wales Area where Appliance was 1st in Attendance

Incidents in Own Station Area Where Appliance was 1st in Attendance

Standby's Carried Out

Dwelling Fire False AlarmOther Primary

Fire Other SSCs RTCs Secondary Fire Standby

2010-11 18 74 34 21 8 100

2011-12 13 71 33 12 9 66 1

18

74

34

21

8

100

13

71

33

12 9

66

10

20

40

60

80

100

120

Nu

mb

er

Of

Inci

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nts

Total Incidents Attended By 36P1 By Incident Type (April 2010 to March 2012)

% of Incidents

Secondary Fires 36.1%

False Alarms 31.5%

Primary Fires (inc. dwelling fires) 21.3%

SSC's (including RTC's) 10.9%

% of Incidents

False Alarms 46.8%

Primary Fires (inc. dwelling fires) 21.2%

Secondary Fires 18.2%

SSC's (Including RTC's) 13.8%

Blaenau Gwent FSEC Scenarios

FSEC Scenario's - Compared to Base Case Dwellings Predicted Fatalities

Other Buildings Predicted Fatalities

Road Traffic Collisions Predicted Fatalities

Scenario 1 Close Blaina 0 0 0 Scenario 2 Close Brynmawr +0.01 0 0 Scenario 3 Close Ebbw Vale +0.06 +0.01 +0.41 Scenario 4 Close Tredegar +0.01 0 0 Scenario 5 Close Abertillery +0.02 0 +0.05 Scenario 6 Ebbw Vale to RDS +0.02 0 +0.27 Scenario 7 Abergavenny to 1 X WT -0.01 0 -0.10 Scenario 8 Abergavenny to 1 X WT - Close Blaina 0 0 -0.09 Scenario 9 Abergavenny to 1 X WT - Close Brynmawr 0 +0.01 -0.10 Scenario 10 Abergavenny to 1 X WT - Close Blaina + Brynmawr +0.02 +0.01 -0.08

Detailed View of Brynmawr and Abertillery 10 minute (turn-in and travel) times

Predicted Dwelling Fatality Rates (risk of death) per Output Area ( Covering the East of Blaina which is outside the 10 minute attendance time of Brynmawr and Abertillery (Blaina Closed).

The majority of this area is classed as ‘Well Below Average’ risk (green), although the yellow shading represents an ‘Average’ risk area.

With the station closure the majority of this area remains ‘Well Below Average’ risk. However the Average Risk area rises to Above Average Risk. The ‘Well Above Average’ risk area on the map (red) can be attended in under 10 minutes by the Brynmawr appliance.

Blaina Station open Blaina Station closed

Post Code Average Travel Times and Lag Times

Average Response Times and Lag Times To 187 Post Code Points

(Where Blaina Currently The Closest Station)

Average Time

(Blaina Open)

Average Time

(Blaina Closed)

Average Attendance

Time Variance

Lag Time Between 1st and 2nd and 2nd and 3rd Appliances

(Blaina Closed)

1st Appliance 00:06:41 00:09:16 00:02:35 2nd Appliance 00:09:16 00:10:07 00:00:51 00:00:51 3rd Appliance 00:10:07 00:11:24 00:01:17 00:01:17

This area in green represents the road junctions that are within a 5 minute travel time of Brynmawr and Abertillery stations. The crosses represent the nearest postcode address of Blaina personnel. As you will see there are now only 3 postcodes that are outside the 5 minute zone but they can be reached within 6 minutes.

Fire Authority Resolution to consult on proposal

Next meeting:

•What the consultation responses said

•What the Fire Authority considered & their decision

•Was that decision reasonable in the light of the data, evidence and information

available in the report?

Any Questions?