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FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Luohan Academy Webinar Jun Pan Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance (SAIF) Shanghai Jiao Tong University January 12, 2021 Based on joint work with Claire Yurong Hong and Xiaomeng Lu from SAIF Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 1 / 33

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  • FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-TakingLuohan Academy Webinar

    Jun Pan

    Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance (SAIF)Shanghai Jiao Tong University

    January 12, 2021

    Based on joint work with Claire Yurong Hong and Xiaomeng Lu from SAIF

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 1 / 33

  • Household Finance in the Age of FinTech

    The current wave of “Fin + Tech” development is unique in that▶ FinTech Platforms: created by tech not finance firms.

    ⋆ Giant user bases, low operational costs, and a culture of “winner-take-all.”▶ Super Apps: financial services delivered directly to households via super apps.

    ⋆ Free of traditional financial advisors.⋆ All-in-one ecosystems with a wide range of products.

    In China, activities central to household finance are taking place on FinTechplatforms via super apps:

    ▶ Consumption: online consumption accounts for 25% of the total.▶ Investments: 30% of mutual fund purchases takes place on FinTech platforms.▶ Payments: digital payments everywhere.

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 2 / 33

  • FinTech in China

    Consumption, Investments, and Paymentsaggregated over a random sample of 50,000 individuals

    2017 Mar 2017 Sep 2018 Mar 2018 Sep 2019 Mar0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    Mill

    ion

    Yua

    n

    AlipayTaobaoRisky FundsMoney Market Funds

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 3 / 33

  • Super Apps

    Taobao from Alibaba Group Alipay from Ant Group

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 4 / 33

  • FinTech in China

    Consumption, Investments, and Paymentsaggregated over a random sample of 50,000 individuals

    2017 Mar 2017 Sep 2018 Mar 2018 Sep 2019 Mar0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    Mill

    ion

    Yua

    n

    AlipayTaobaoRisky FundsMoney Market Funds

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 5 / 33

  • Alipay as a One-Stop FinTech App

    Imagine if1 Main-street banks2 Wall Street’s brokers3 Boston’s asset managers4 Connecticut’s insurers

    all shrunk to fit into1 a single app designed in

    Silicon Valleythat almost everyone used.

    – The Economist, Oct 8th 2020

    Online Shopping Investment

    Offline Consumption

    Utility/Phone Bill Payment

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 6 / 33

  • Motivations

    Campbell (2006), AFA presidential address, on the key challenges of the study ofhousehold finance:

    ▶ household behavior is difficult to measure.▶ households face constraints not captured by textbook models.

    With the arrival of FinTech over the past decade:▶ More data from FinTech platforms have been made available to researchers.▶ Compared with other super-cool data (Swedish, Finnish, Charles Schwab, etc),the FinTech household data are unique – account-level data generated byindividuals on FinTech platforms, most likely via super apps.

    ▶ Some of the constraints faced by households might be dissipating.

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 7 / 33

  • Our Research Questions

    Can FinTech lower investment barrier and improve household risk-taking?▶ Under risk-taking: access costs, lack of familiarity, trust, financial education.▶ FinTech platforms: easy access, low costs, brand recognition, repeated usage.▶ FinTech convenience reduces physical costs, increasing participation.▶ Repeated usage of Alipay builds familiarity and trust, increasing risk-taking.

    Who benefits the most from FinTech Advancements?▶ The otherwise more constrained investors prior to the arrival of FinTech:

    ⋆ Individuals who are more risk-tolerant.⋆ Individuals living in areas under-served by financial institutions.

    ▶ Individual heterogeneity: risk tolerance inferred from consumption volatility.▶ Geographical variation in financial inclusion: areas under-served by financialinstitutions, using the number of local bank branches as a proxy.

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 8 / 33

  • Financial Theory on Household Finance

    Optimal portfolio choice and consumption:▶ Mean-variance: Markowitz (1952) and Tobin (1958).▶ Dynamic continuous-time models: Merton (1969, 1971).

    Insights from Merton’s portfolio problem:▶ The link between the optimal portfolio weight w∗ and risk-aversion γ

    w∗ =1

    γ

    µ− rσ2R

    ▶ The link between the optimal consumption volatility σc and risk-aversion γ

    σc = σw = w∗ σR =

    1

    γ

    µ− rσR

    Beyond Merton: alternative specifications of household utility, stochastic interestrates, and time-varying risk premiums.Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 9 / 33

  • Key Findings: Can FinTech Improve Household Risk-Taking?

    Increased risk-taking with FinTech adoption: moving the FinTech adoptionmeasure from zero to one corresponds to an increase of

    ▶ 13.6% in risky participation (average=37.5% among 50,000 individuals)▶ 14.0% in risky share (average=45% among 28,393 individuals)▶ 0.52% in portfolio volatility (average=1.77% among 28,393 individuals)

    Individual-level increase in risk-taking occurs with individual-level increasein FinTech adoption: tracking the same individual’s FinTech savviness from 2017to 2018, a change from 0 to 1 corresponds to changes of

    ▶ 1.4% in risky participation▶ 8.7% in risky share

    Controlling for risk tolerance: findings remain robust.

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 10 / 33

  • Key Findings: Risk-Taking and Consumption Volatility

    Higher risk-taking by individuals with higher consumption volatility:▶ Individual consumption volatility as a proxy for risk tolerance.

    Components of consumption:▶ Informative: basic consumption and personal development.▶ Non-informative: consumption for enjoyment.

    Risk-taking by asset classes:▶ Equity, mixed, index, and QDII funds: positive and significant.▶ Bond fund: positive and insignificant.▶ Gold fund: negative and insignificant.

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 11 / 33

  • Key Findings: Who Benefits the Most from FinTech Advancements?

    Risk-taking improvement stronger for more risk-tolerant individuals.▶ Individuals with more risk tolerance were otherwise more constrained prior tothe advent of FinTech.

    Quantify the FinTech improvement relative the optimal risk-taking.▶ Among investors with high FinTech adoption, the alignment of their σw and σcis substantially closer to the optimal solution of Merton.

    Cities under-served by banks benefit more from FinTech penetration.▶ Positive and significant effect of city-level FinTech penetration on risk-taking,controlling for city GDP, population, income, and bank accessibility.

    ▶ The effect of FinTech penetration on risk-taking is stronger for cities with lowfinancial-service coverage, using the number of local bank branches as a proxy.

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 12 / 33

  • Related Literature

    Theory: Markowitz (1952), Tobin (1958), and Merton (1969, 1971).Household Finance: Campbell (2006).Risk-Taking and

    ▶ Consumption Volatility: Mankiw and Zeldes (1991).▶ Familiarity: Hong, Kubic and Stein (2004).▶ Trust: Guiso, Sapienza, and Zingales (2008).

    Technology and Investor Behavior:▶ Internet and stock trading: Barber and Odean (2002).▶ FinTech platforms and mutual fund flows: Hong, Lu, and Pan (2020).

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 13 / 33

  • Summary Statistics

    28,393 Active Users (> 100 RMB Fund Purchases)Consumption FinTech Adoption Risk-Taking

    Female

    Age

    Consum

    ption

    σC AliFrac

    log(A

    liCnt)

    ∆AliFrac

    ∆log

    (AliC

    nt)

    Particip

    ate

    RiskySh

    are

    σW

    (%)

    Mean 0.61 31.1 2,292 1.21 0.55 3.05 0.08 0.62 0.66 0.45 1.77Median 1.00 30.0 1,396 1.16 0.57 3.12 0.07 0.54 1.00 0.15 0.18Std 0.49 7.8 4,732 0.40 0.22 0.83 0.17 0.76 0.47 0.47 2.97

    All 50,000 UsersMean 0.61 30.4 2,155 1.21 0.54 3.01 0.08 0.59 0.38Median 1.00 29.0 1,259 1.16 0.56 3.08 0.07 0.53 0.00Std 0.49 7.8 17,063 0.40 0.22 0.84 0.22 0.67 0.48

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 14 / 33

  • Measuring FinTech Adoption

    Using individual i’s month-t consumption on Alipay and Taobao:

    AliFracit =Alipayit

    Alipayit + Taobaoit

    2017Q2 2017Q4 2018Q2 2018Q4

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 15 / 33

  • Digital Payments via QR-Code Scan

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 16 / 33

  • City-Level FinTech Penetration

    Average Level of FinTech Penetration 2018 minus 2017

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 17 / 33

  • Determinants of FinTech AdoptionAliFrac Log(AliCnt)

    All Users Active Users All Users Active UsersσC 0.032*** 0.034*** 0.033*** 0.035*** 0.044*** 0.054*** 0.042*** 0.052***

    (11.13) (12.31) (9.47) (10.52) (4.85) (6.31) (3.31) (4.37)Log(C) -0.104*** -0.107*** -0.107*** -0.109*** 0.133*** 0.124*** 0.130*** 0.121***

    (-81.59) (-94.95) (-72.19) (-80.70) (19.60) (25.10) (17.15) (20.31)Female -0.054*** -0.050*** -0.055*** -0.051*** -0.170*** -0.160*** -0.190*** -0.180***

    (-16.95) (-16.18) (-16.00) (-15.21) (-14.94) (-13.70) (-16.04) (-14.74)Log(Age) 0.000 -0.002 -0.015 -0.017* -0.816*** -0.818*** -0.861*** -0.863***

    (0.03) (-0.27) (-1.61) (-1.86) (-23.04) (-28.26) (-23.49) (-26.97)Log(GDP) 0.023** 0.022** 0.123** 0.129**

    (2.50) (2.18) (2.17) (2.07)Log(Income) 0.029*** 0.029*** 0.117*** 0.126***

    (4.32) (4.45) (3.28) (3.39)Log(Population) 0.006 0.005 0.0138 0.0233

    (0.90) (0.71) (0.35) (0.59)Log(#Branch) -0.003 -0.004 0.0194 -0.0077

    (-0.35) (-0.34) (0.40) (-0.13)Citylevel=1 -0.059** -0.059** -0.2612** -0.267**

    (-2.50) (-2.65) (-2.20) (-2.22)City FE N Y N Y N Y N YR2 0.210 0.208 0.230 0.230 0.0857 0.086 0.096 0.095N 49,087 50,000 27,886 28,393 49,087 50,000 27,886 28,393

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 18 / 33

  • Determinants of Change in FinTech Adoption, from 2017 to 2018∆AliFrac ∆Log(AliCnt)

    All Users Active Users All Users Active Usersσc -0.010*** -0.010*** -0.008*** -0.009*** -0.054*** -0.053*** -0.056*** -0.054***

    (-3.87) (-3.77) (-2.43) (-2.55) (-6.78) (-6.60) (-5.13) (-4.99)Log(C) -0.026*** -0.026*** -0.023*** -0.022*** -0.098*** -0.093*** -0.094*** -0.091***

    (-18.29) (-18.19) (-12.74) (-12.57) (-22.82) (-21.56) (-17.18) (-16.45)Female -0.016*** -0.016*** -0.017*** -0.017*** -0.002 -0.002 -0.017** -0.017**

    (-6.79) (-6.86) (-5.41) (-5.61) (-0.27) (-0.35) (-2.02) (-2.01)Log(Age) 0.102*** 0.101*** 0.103*** 0.102*** 0.500*** 0.493*** 0.532*** 0.527***

    (16.32) (16.26) (14.90) (14.78) (20.46) (20.16) (17.50) (17.28)Log(GDP) -0.004 -0.009** -0.0302** -0.0485***

    (-1.61) (-2.54) (-2.44) (-3.06)Log(Income) -0.005*** -0.005** -0.041*** -0.041***

    (-3.24) (-2.55) (-5.37) (-4.86)Log(Population) 0.002 0.001 0.0023 0.009

    (1.10) (0.61) (0.33) (1.11)Log(#Branch) -0.006** 0.002 0.0076 0.0221

    (-2.10) (0.45) (0.49) (1.15)Citylevel=1 0.005 0.003 0.079*** 0.080***

    (1.31) (0.68) (3.01) (2.89)City FE N Y N Y N Y N YR2 0.021 0.021 0.019 0.019 0.0403 0.040 0.046 0.046N 49,087 50,000 27,886 28,393 49,087 50,000 27,886 28,393

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 19 / 33

  • Mutual Funds in China

    Mutual Funds in China

    Yu'ebao 2013/6/13

    2000

    2002

    2004

    2006

    2008

    2010

    2012

    2014

    2016

    2018

    2020

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    Mut

    ual F

    und

    AU

    M (

    RM

    B tr

    illio

    n)

    Equity+Mixed Bond Money Market

    08Q1

    08Q3

    09Q1

    09Q3

    10Q1

    10Q3

    11Q1

    11Q3

    12Q1

    12Q3

    13Q1

    13Q3

    14Q1

    14Q3

    15Q1

    15Q3

    16Q1

    16Q3

    17Q1

    17Q3

    18Q1

    18Q3

    19Q1

    19Q3

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    Frac

    tion

    of F

    unds

    (%)

    ←Ant entersPlatforms

    Yu'ebao→

    Brokers

    Banks

    Platform Coverage of Actively-Managed Mutual FundsShumi+AntTiantianHowbuyTong Huashun

    Source: “FinTech Platforms and Mutual Fund Distribution” by Hong, Lu, and Pan (2020)

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 20 / 33

  • Mutual Fund Purchases

    Our Sample Market-Wide

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 21 / 33

  • Household Consumption

    2016 2017 2018 2019 20204

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    20

    22

    24Monthly Consumption Growth Volatility (%)

    Feb

    Taobao (our sample)Alipay (our sample)Online (economy wide)Offline (economy wide)

    Fraction of Taobao Consumption (%)

    2017 Mar 2017 Sep 2018 Mar 2018 Sep 2019 Mar5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    BasicEnjoyDevelopment

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 22 / 33

  • FinTech Adoption and Risk-Taking

    Participate

    0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

    Tech-Savviness

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    Ris

    ky P

    artic

    ipat

    ion

    (%)

    Participation i = 29.27 + 15.32 Tech-Savviness i ; R2 = 79%.[13.54]

    Tech-Savviness sorted groups

    Risky Share

    0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

    Tech-Savviness

    36

    38

    40

    42

    44

    46

    48

    50

    52

    54

    Ris

    ky S

    hare

    (%

    )

    Risky Share i = 38.24 + 12.9 Tech-Savviness i ; R2 = 71%.[11.00]

    Tech-Savviness sorted groups

    Portfolio Volatility σW

    0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

    Tech-Savviness

    1.4

    1.5

    1.6

    1.7

    1.8

    1.9

    2

    2.1

    2.2

    Por

    tfolio

    Vol

    atili

    ty

    W (

    %)

    Wi = 1.53 + 0.43 Tech-Savviness i ; R2 = 38%.

    [5.52]

    Tech-Savviness sorted groups

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 23 / 33

  • FinTech Adoption and Risk-Taking

    Individual Risk-Taking on Individual FinTech SavvinessParticipate Risky Share Portfolio Volatility (σw)

    Tech-Savviness 0.127*** 0.239*** 0.131*** 0.146*** 0.431*** 0.446***(10.47) (17.94) (7.65) (7.80) (4.76) (4.59)

    σc 0.037*** 0.019*** 0.052*** 0.018*** 0.345*** 0.163***(7.37) (3.69) (7.87) (2.72) (8.43) (4.07)

    Log(C) 0.076*** 0.031*** 0.128***(30.06) (9.03) (5.46)

    Female -0.067*** -0.102*** -0.542***(-12.24) (-15.12) (-15.52)

    Log(Age) 0.007 -0.171*** -0.861***(0.57) (-11.11) (-10.50)

    City FE Y Y Y Y Y YAdjusted R2 0.004 0.024 0.006 0.025 0.004 0.016N 50,000 50,000 28,393 28,393 28,393 28,393

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 24 / 33

  • FinTech Adoption and Risk-Taking

    Individual Risk-Taking on Individual FinTech SavvinessParticipate Risky Share Portfolio Volatility (σw)

    Tech-Savviness 0.127*** 0.239*** 0.131*** 0.146*** 0.431*** 0.446***(10.47) (17.94) (7.65) (7.80) (4.76) (4.59)

    σc 0.037*** 0.019*** 0.052*** 0.018*** 0.345*** 0.163***(7.37) (3.69) (7.87) (2.72) (8.43) (4.07)

    Log(C) 0.076*** 0.031*** 0.128***(30.06) (9.03) (5.46)

    Female -0.067*** -0.102*** -0.542***(-12.24) (-15.12) (-15.52)

    Log(Age) 0.007 -0.171*** -0.861***(0.57) (-11.11) (-10.50)

    City FE Y Y Y Y Y YAdjusted R2 0.004 0.024 0.006 0.025 0.004 0.016N 50,000 50,000 28,393 28,393 28,393 28,393

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 24 / 33

  • FinTech Adoption and Risk-Taking

    Risk-Taking on FinTech Savviness, Change on Change∆Participate ∆Risky Share ∆Trade Propensity

    ∆Tech Savviness 0.014** 0.087*** 0.025***(2.08) (5.30) (6.60)

    σc 0.009** -0.010 0.000(2.23) (-1.32) (0.09)

    Log(C) 0.013*** 0.000 -0.002**(8.25) (0.10) (-2.13)

    Female -0.025*** -0.004 0.000(-8.31) (-0.68) (-0.076)

    Log(Age) -0.041*** 0.012 -0.005**(-5.98) (0.98) (-2.05)

    City FE Y Y YAdjusted R2 0.004 0.154 0.001N 50,000 28,393 50,000

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 25 / 33

  • FinTech Adoption and Risk-TakingRisk-Taking on FinTech Savviness, Conditioning on Individual Heterogeneity

    Participate Risky Share Portfolio Volatility σwTech-Savviness×σc 0.061** 0.047* 0.029 0.015 0.434** 0.381**

    (2.45) (1.86) (1.01) (0.51) (2.32) (2.01)Tech-Savviness×Log(C) 0.037*** 0.004 0.048

    (3.40) (0.27) (0.55)Tech-Savviness×Female -0.063*** -0.036 -0.130

    (-2.84) (-1.27) (-0.69)Tech-Savviness×Log(Age) -0.113** -0.106* -0.679**

    (-2.52) (-1.91) (-2.19)Tech-Savviness 0.165*** 0.341** 0.111*** 0.486** -0.077 2.054

    (5.08) (1.96) (2.58) (2.12) (-0.30) (1.55)σc -0.013 -0.005 0.002 0.010 -0.074 -0.043

    (-1.04) (-0.41) (0.13) (0.55) (-0.66) (-0.38)Controls & City FE Y Y Y Y Y YAdjusted R2 0.024 0.024 0.025 0.036 0.016 0.016N 50,000 50,000 28,393 28,393 28,393 28,393

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 26 / 33

  • Optimal Alignment of Consumption and Investment

    All Active Users

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7

    Normalized Consumption Volatility C

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    11

    12

    13

    Nor

    mal

    ized

    Por

    tfolio

    Vol

    atili

    ty

    W

    Wi = 6.54 + 0.79

    Ci ; R2 = 62%.

    [9.02]

    C sorted groups

    High and Low FinTech Adoption

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7

    Normalized Consumption Volatility C

    7

    8

    9

    10

    11

    12

    13

    Nor

    mal

    ized

    Por

    tfolio

    Vol

    atili

    ty

    W High FinTech: Wi = 6.23 + 0.91

    Ci ; R2 = 77%.

    [8.86]

    Low FinTech: Wi = 6.65 + 0.58

    Ci ; R2 = 45%.

    [4.42]

    High FinTech AdoptionLow FinTech Adoption

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 27 / 33

  • Which Component of Consumption is More Informative?

    Dependent Variable: Portfolio Volatility σwBasic Development Enjoy

    Tech-Savviness 0.438*** 0.143 0.467*** -0.103 0.464*** 0.151(4.43) (0.78) (4.80) (-0.31) (4.76) (0.45)

    σc 0.049** -0.032 0.052** -0.053 0.025 -0.034(2.50) (-0.60) (2.37) (-0.87) (1.25) (-0.56)

    Tech-Savviness×σc 0.147* 0.193* 0.112(1.72) (1.85) (1.00)

    Log(C) -0.555*** -0.554*** -0.569*** -0.568*** -0.578*** -0.578***(-15.23) (-15.24) (-16.53) (-16.54) (-16.61) (-16.62)

    Female -0.855*** -0.856*** -0.860*** -0.861*** -0.882*** -0.881***(-10.51) (-10.54) (-10.59) (-10.60) (-10.61) (-10.59)

    Log(Age) 0.127*** 0.128*** 0.110*** 0.108*** 0.125*** 0.123***(5.46) (5.46) (4.63) (4.52) (5.32) (5.30)

    City FE Y Y Y Y Y YAdjusted R2 0.0156 0.0157 0.0155 0.0157 0.0154 0.0155N 28,393 28,393 28,393 28,393 28,393 28,393

    Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 28 / 33

  • Improved Risk-Taking in Which Asset Classes?

    Dependent Variable: Participation in Asset ClassBond Mixed Equity Index QDII Gold

    Tech-Savviness 0.040*** 0.015 0.149*** 0.115*** 0.045*** 0.021 0.072*** 0.046*** 0.024*** 0.002 0.140*** 0.115***(7.37) (0.96) (14.03) (4.67) (7.96) (1.56) (9.85) (2.75) (6.93) (0.17) (18.11) (6.23)

    Tech-Savviness×σc 0.021* 0.028 0.019** 0.021 0.019** 0.021(1.79) (1.38) (1.89) (1.57) (2.21) (1.43)

    σc 0.003 -0.008 0.020*** 0.006 0.011*** 0.001 0.016*** 0.004 0.004** -0.006 -0.004 -0.016*(0.95) (-1.24) (4.60) (0.53) (3.68) (0.11) (4.75) (0.57) (2.15) (-1.34) (-1.09) (-1.75)

    Log(C) 0.016*** 0.016*** 0.054*** 0.054*** 0.017*** 0.017*** 0.030*** 0.030*** 0.010*** 0.010*** 0.030*** 0.030***(12.66) (12.65) (25.71) (25.72) (13.18) (13.21) (13.66) (13.64) (11.16) (11.16) (15.32) (15.33)

    Female -0.003 -0.003 -0.048*** -0.048*** -0.020*** -0.020*** -0.039*** -0.039*** -0.012*** -0.012*** -0.045*** -0.045***(-1.12) (-1.08) (-10.68) (-10.58) (-8.14) (-8.11) (-12.77) (-12.76) (-6.81) (-6.74) (-14.77) (-14.76)

    Log(Age) 0.022*** 0.022*** 0.039*** 0.039*** 0.001 0.001 -0.013 -0.013 0.001 0.001 -0.034*** -0.034***(4.98) (4.97) (3.65) (3.65) (0.22) (0.21) (-1.55) (-1.56) (0.39) (0.37) (-5.08) (-5.10)

    City FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y YR2 0.0036 0.0037 0.0186 0.0187 0.0058 0.0059 0.0107 0.0107 0.0048 0.0049 0.0153 0.0154N 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000

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  • Which Cities Benefit More from FinTech Advancements?

    Level

    0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7City Tech-Penetration

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    Risk

    y Sh

    are

    (%)

    Low Coverage: Risky Share=0.28+0.57 Tech-Penetration [2.62]; R2 =5%

    High Coverage: Risky Share=0.55+0.01 Tech-Penetration [0.07]; R2 =0%

    Low Bank CoverageHigh Bank Coverage

    Change

    0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10Change in City Tech Penetration

    -50

    -35

    -20

    -5

    10

    25

    40

    55

    70

    Chan

    ge in

    Risk

    y Sh

    are

    (%)

    Low Coverage: ∆ Risky Share=-0.11+2.33∆ Tech Penetration[2.82]; R2 =8%

    High Coverage: ∆ Risky Share=-0.01-0.74∆ Tech Penetration [1.90]; R2 =3%

    Low Bank CoverageHigh Bank Coverage

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  • Which Cities Benefit More from FinTech Advancements?

    Individual Risk-Taking on City-Level Tech-PenetrationParticipate Risky Share Portfolio Volatility σw

    Tech-Penetration 0.272*** 0.212*** 0.207*** 0.304*** 0.310** 0.254* 0.759** 0.676 0.594(3.51) (2.92) (2.84) (2.64) (2.25) (1.89) (2.17) (1.60) (1.41)

    Tech-Penetration*Log(#Branch) -0.048 -0.546*** -0.803**(-0.69) (-4.26) (-2.00)

    Log(#Branch) -0.002 0.02 -0.018 0.229*** -0.033 0.331*(-0.26) (0.62) (-1.52) (3.88) (-0.89) (1.78)

    Log(GDP) 0.01 0.011 -0.018 -0.006 0.007 0.024(1.04) (1.13) (-0.99) (-0.33) (0.12) (0.44)

    Log(Population) -0.009 -0.009 0.033*** 0.034*** 0.01 0.01(-1.36) (-1.35) (2.73) (2.84) (0.26) (0.28)

    Log(Income) 0.010* 0.011** 0.013 0.024** 0.047 0.063*(1.87) (1.98) (1.30) (2.36) (1.48) (1.94)

    CityLevel=1 0.037 0.042 -0.011 0.042 0.009 0.088(0.95) (1.05) (-0.15) (0.58) (0.04) (0.38)

    Constant 0.206*** 0.234*** 0.238*** 0.398*** 0.395*** 0.437*** 0.847*** 0.887*** 0.948***(5.21) (6.66) (6.69) (7.10) (5.91) (6.65) (4.98) (4.32) (4.59)

    Observations 287 287 287 287 287 287 287 287 287R-squared 0.065 0.113 0.115 0.024 0.058 0.116 0.016 0.03 0.044

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  • Which Cities Benefit More from FinTech Advancements?

    Individual Risk-Taking on City-Level Tech-Penetration, Change on Change∆Participate ∆Risky Share ∆Trade Propensity

    ∆Tech-Penetration 0.149* 0.090 1.469** 0.400 0.084** 0.056(1.76) (1.07) (2.44) (0.99) (2.03) (1.40)

    Log(#Branch) -0.002 0.005 -0.019 0.103*** 0.000 0.003(-1.53) (1.25) (-1.19) (3.63) (-0.40) (1.27)

    ∆Tech-Penetration*Log(#Branch) -0.150* -2.714*** -0.071*(-1.81) (-4.79) (-1.68)

    Log(GDP) 0.004* 0.003 -0.018 -0.034* -0.001 -0.001(1.66) (1.39) (-0.92) (-1.78) (-0.69) (-1.02)

    Log(Population) -0.002 -0.002 0.019* 0.017* 0.000 0.000(-1.10) (-1.13) (1.77) (1.67) (0.14) (0.08)

    Log(Income) 0.001 0.001 0.022* 0.015 0.000 0.000(0.91) (0.60) (1.84) (1.53) (0.15) (-0.06)

    CityLevel=1 0.004 0.001 -0.001 -0.053** 0.004** 0.002(1.08) (0.30) (-0.04) (-2.25) (1.97) (1.32)

    Constant 0.052*** 0.054*** -0.079*** -0.046*** -0.002 -0.001(15.04) (16.00) (-3.86) (-3.16) (-0.94) (-0.42)

    Observations 287 287 287 287 287 287R-squared 0.034 0.042 0.105 0.207 0.036 0.045

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  • Conclusions

    We study how FinTech can help households move toward optimal risk-taking:▶ FinTech adoption improves risk-taking, more for risk-tolerant individuals.▶ FinTech can help improve the alignment of risk-taking and consumption.▶ Cities with low banking coverage benefit more from FinTech penetration.

    Interpretations of our findings:▶ FinTech convenience reduces physical costs, increasing participation.▶ Repeated usage of Alipay builds familiarity and trust, increasing risk-taking.

    Future of FinTech:▶ Brighter for emerging economies lacking financial infrastructures.▶ From Tech to Fin, more content building.

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