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FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-TakingLuohan Academy Webinar
Jun Pan
Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance (SAIF)Shanghai Jiao Tong University
January 12, 2021
Based on joint work with Claire Yurong Hong and Xiaomeng Lu from SAIF
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 1 / 33
Household Finance in the Age of FinTech
The current wave of “Fin + Tech” development is unique in that▶ FinTech Platforms: created by tech not finance firms.
⋆ Giant user bases, low operational costs, and a culture of “winner-take-all.”▶ Super Apps: financial services delivered directly to households via super apps.
⋆ Free of traditional financial advisors.⋆ All-in-one ecosystems with a wide range of products.
In China, activities central to household finance are taking place on FinTechplatforms via super apps:
▶ Consumption: online consumption accounts for 25% of the total.▶ Investments: 30% of mutual fund purchases takes place on FinTech platforms.▶ Payments: digital payments everywhere.
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 2 / 33
FinTech in China
Consumption, Investments, and Paymentsaggregated over a random sample of 50,000 individuals
2017 Mar 2017 Sep 2018 Mar 2018 Sep 2019 Mar0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Mill
ion
Yua
n
AlipayTaobaoRisky FundsMoney Market Funds
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 3 / 33
Super Apps
Taobao from Alibaba Group Alipay from Ant Group
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 4 / 33
FinTech in China
Consumption, Investments, and Paymentsaggregated over a random sample of 50,000 individuals
2017 Mar 2017 Sep 2018 Mar 2018 Sep 2019 Mar0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Mill
ion
Yua
n
AlipayTaobaoRisky FundsMoney Market Funds
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 5 / 33
Alipay as a One-Stop FinTech App
Imagine if1 Main-street banks2 Wall Street’s brokers3 Boston’s asset managers4 Connecticut’s insurers
all shrunk to fit into1 a single app designed in
Silicon Valleythat almost everyone used.
– The Economist, Oct 8th 2020
Online Shopping Investment
Offline Consumption
Utility/Phone Bill Payment
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 6 / 33
Motivations
Campbell (2006), AFA presidential address, on the key challenges of the study ofhousehold finance:
▶ household behavior is difficult to measure.▶ households face constraints not captured by textbook models.
With the arrival of FinTech over the past decade:▶ More data from FinTech platforms have been made available to researchers.▶ Compared with other super-cool data (Swedish, Finnish, Charles Schwab, etc),the FinTech household data are unique – account-level data generated byindividuals on FinTech platforms, most likely via super apps.
▶ Some of the constraints faced by households might be dissipating.
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 7 / 33
Our Research Questions
Can FinTech lower investment barrier and improve household risk-taking?▶ Under risk-taking: access costs, lack of familiarity, trust, financial education.▶ FinTech platforms: easy access, low costs, brand recognition, repeated usage.▶ FinTech convenience reduces physical costs, increasing participation.▶ Repeated usage of Alipay builds familiarity and trust, increasing risk-taking.
Who benefits the most from FinTech Advancements?▶ The otherwise more constrained investors prior to the arrival of FinTech:
⋆ Individuals who are more risk-tolerant.⋆ Individuals living in areas under-served by financial institutions.
▶ Individual heterogeneity: risk tolerance inferred from consumption volatility.▶ Geographical variation in financial inclusion: areas under-served by financialinstitutions, using the number of local bank branches as a proxy.
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 8 / 33
Financial Theory on Household Finance
Optimal portfolio choice and consumption:▶ Mean-variance: Markowitz (1952) and Tobin (1958).▶ Dynamic continuous-time models: Merton (1969, 1971).
Insights from Merton’s portfolio problem:▶ The link between the optimal portfolio weight w∗ and risk-aversion γ
w∗ =1
γ
µ− rσ2R
▶ The link between the optimal consumption volatility σc and risk-aversion γ
σc = σw = w∗ σR =
1
γ
µ− rσR
Beyond Merton: alternative specifications of household utility, stochastic interestrates, and time-varying risk premiums.Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 9 / 33
Key Findings: Can FinTech Improve Household Risk-Taking?
Increased risk-taking with FinTech adoption: moving the FinTech adoptionmeasure from zero to one corresponds to an increase of
▶ 13.6% in risky participation (average=37.5% among 50,000 individuals)▶ 14.0% in risky share (average=45% among 28,393 individuals)▶ 0.52% in portfolio volatility (average=1.77% among 28,393 individuals)
Individual-level increase in risk-taking occurs with individual-level increasein FinTech adoption: tracking the same individual’s FinTech savviness from 2017to 2018, a change from 0 to 1 corresponds to changes of
▶ 1.4% in risky participation▶ 8.7% in risky share
Controlling for risk tolerance: findings remain robust.
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 10 / 33
Key Findings: Risk-Taking and Consumption Volatility
Higher risk-taking by individuals with higher consumption volatility:▶ Individual consumption volatility as a proxy for risk tolerance.
Components of consumption:▶ Informative: basic consumption and personal development.▶ Non-informative: consumption for enjoyment.
Risk-taking by asset classes:▶ Equity, mixed, index, and QDII funds: positive and significant.▶ Bond fund: positive and insignificant.▶ Gold fund: negative and insignificant.
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 11 / 33
Key Findings: Who Benefits the Most from FinTech Advancements?
Risk-taking improvement stronger for more risk-tolerant individuals.▶ Individuals with more risk tolerance were otherwise more constrained prior tothe advent of FinTech.
Quantify the FinTech improvement relative the optimal risk-taking.▶ Among investors with high FinTech adoption, the alignment of their σw and σcis substantially closer to the optimal solution of Merton.
Cities under-served by banks benefit more from FinTech penetration.▶ Positive and significant effect of city-level FinTech penetration on risk-taking,controlling for city GDP, population, income, and bank accessibility.
▶ The effect of FinTech penetration on risk-taking is stronger for cities with lowfinancial-service coverage, using the number of local bank branches as a proxy.
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 12 / 33
Related Literature
Theory: Markowitz (1952), Tobin (1958), and Merton (1969, 1971).Household Finance: Campbell (2006).Risk-Taking and
▶ Consumption Volatility: Mankiw and Zeldes (1991).▶ Familiarity: Hong, Kubic and Stein (2004).▶ Trust: Guiso, Sapienza, and Zingales (2008).
Technology and Investor Behavior:▶ Internet and stock trading: Barber and Odean (2002).▶ FinTech platforms and mutual fund flows: Hong, Lu, and Pan (2020).
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 13 / 33
Summary Statistics
28,393 Active Users (> 100 RMB Fund Purchases)Consumption FinTech Adoption Risk-Taking
Female
Age
Consum
ption
σC AliFrac
log(A
liCnt)
∆AliFrac
∆log
(AliC
nt)
Particip
ate
RiskySh
are
σW
(%)
Mean 0.61 31.1 2,292 1.21 0.55 3.05 0.08 0.62 0.66 0.45 1.77Median 1.00 30.0 1,396 1.16 0.57 3.12 0.07 0.54 1.00 0.15 0.18Std 0.49 7.8 4,732 0.40 0.22 0.83 0.17 0.76 0.47 0.47 2.97
All 50,000 UsersMean 0.61 30.4 2,155 1.21 0.54 3.01 0.08 0.59 0.38Median 1.00 29.0 1,259 1.16 0.56 3.08 0.07 0.53 0.00Std 0.49 7.8 17,063 0.40 0.22 0.84 0.22 0.67 0.48
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 14 / 33
Measuring FinTech Adoption
Using individual i’s month-t consumption on Alipay and Taobao:
AliFracit =Alipayit
Alipayit + Taobaoit
2017Q2 2017Q4 2018Q2 2018Q4
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 15 / 33
Digital Payments via QR-Code Scan
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 16 / 33
City-Level FinTech Penetration
Average Level of FinTech Penetration 2018 minus 2017
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 17 / 33
Determinants of FinTech AdoptionAliFrac Log(AliCnt)
All Users Active Users All Users Active UsersσC 0.032*** 0.034*** 0.033*** 0.035*** 0.044*** 0.054*** 0.042*** 0.052***
(11.13) (12.31) (9.47) (10.52) (4.85) (6.31) (3.31) (4.37)Log(C) -0.104*** -0.107*** -0.107*** -0.109*** 0.133*** 0.124*** 0.130*** 0.121***
(-81.59) (-94.95) (-72.19) (-80.70) (19.60) (25.10) (17.15) (20.31)Female -0.054*** -0.050*** -0.055*** -0.051*** -0.170*** -0.160*** -0.190*** -0.180***
(-16.95) (-16.18) (-16.00) (-15.21) (-14.94) (-13.70) (-16.04) (-14.74)Log(Age) 0.000 -0.002 -0.015 -0.017* -0.816*** -0.818*** -0.861*** -0.863***
(0.03) (-0.27) (-1.61) (-1.86) (-23.04) (-28.26) (-23.49) (-26.97)Log(GDP) 0.023** 0.022** 0.123** 0.129**
(2.50) (2.18) (2.17) (2.07)Log(Income) 0.029*** 0.029*** 0.117*** 0.126***
(4.32) (4.45) (3.28) (3.39)Log(Population) 0.006 0.005 0.0138 0.0233
(0.90) (0.71) (0.35) (0.59)Log(#Branch) -0.003 -0.004 0.0194 -0.0077
(-0.35) (-0.34) (0.40) (-0.13)Citylevel=1 -0.059** -0.059** -0.2612** -0.267**
(-2.50) (-2.65) (-2.20) (-2.22)City FE N Y N Y N Y N YR2 0.210 0.208 0.230 0.230 0.0857 0.086 0.096 0.095N 49,087 50,000 27,886 28,393 49,087 50,000 27,886 28,393
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 18 / 33
Determinants of Change in FinTech Adoption, from 2017 to 2018∆AliFrac ∆Log(AliCnt)
All Users Active Users All Users Active Usersσc -0.010*** -0.010*** -0.008*** -0.009*** -0.054*** -0.053*** -0.056*** -0.054***
(-3.87) (-3.77) (-2.43) (-2.55) (-6.78) (-6.60) (-5.13) (-4.99)Log(C) -0.026*** -0.026*** -0.023*** -0.022*** -0.098*** -0.093*** -0.094*** -0.091***
(-18.29) (-18.19) (-12.74) (-12.57) (-22.82) (-21.56) (-17.18) (-16.45)Female -0.016*** -0.016*** -0.017*** -0.017*** -0.002 -0.002 -0.017** -0.017**
(-6.79) (-6.86) (-5.41) (-5.61) (-0.27) (-0.35) (-2.02) (-2.01)Log(Age) 0.102*** 0.101*** 0.103*** 0.102*** 0.500*** 0.493*** 0.532*** 0.527***
(16.32) (16.26) (14.90) (14.78) (20.46) (20.16) (17.50) (17.28)Log(GDP) -0.004 -0.009** -0.0302** -0.0485***
(-1.61) (-2.54) (-2.44) (-3.06)Log(Income) -0.005*** -0.005** -0.041*** -0.041***
(-3.24) (-2.55) (-5.37) (-4.86)Log(Population) 0.002 0.001 0.0023 0.009
(1.10) (0.61) (0.33) (1.11)Log(#Branch) -0.006** 0.002 0.0076 0.0221
(-2.10) (0.45) (0.49) (1.15)Citylevel=1 0.005 0.003 0.079*** 0.080***
(1.31) (0.68) (3.01) (2.89)City FE N Y N Y N Y N YR2 0.021 0.021 0.019 0.019 0.0403 0.040 0.046 0.046N 49,087 50,000 27,886 28,393 49,087 50,000 27,886 28,393
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 19 / 33
Mutual Funds in China
Mutual Funds in China
Yu'ebao 2013/6/13
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Mut
ual F
und
AU
M (
RM
B tr
illio
n)
Equity+Mixed Bond Money Market
08Q1
08Q3
09Q1
09Q3
10Q1
10Q3
11Q1
11Q3
12Q1
12Q3
13Q1
13Q3
14Q1
14Q3
15Q1
15Q3
16Q1
16Q3
17Q1
17Q3
18Q1
18Q3
19Q1
19Q3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Frac
tion
of F
unds
(%)
←Ant entersPlatforms
Yu'ebao→
Brokers
Banks
Platform Coverage of Actively-Managed Mutual FundsShumi+AntTiantianHowbuyTong Huashun
Source: “FinTech Platforms and Mutual Fund Distribution” by Hong, Lu, and Pan (2020)
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 20 / 33
Mutual Fund Purchases
Our Sample Market-Wide
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 21 / 33
Household Consumption
2016 2017 2018 2019 20204
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24Monthly Consumption Growth Volatility (%)
Feb
Taobao (our sample)Alipay (our sample)Online (economy wide)Offline (economy wide)
Fraction of Taobao Consumption (%)
2017 Mar 2017 Sep 2018 Mar 2018 Sep 2019 Mar5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
BasicEnjoyDevelopment
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 22 / 33
FinTech Adoption and Risk-Taking
Participate
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Tech-Savviness
20
25
30
35
40
45
Ris
ky P
artic
ipat
ion
(%)
Participation i = 29.27 + 15.32 Tech-Savviness i ; R2 = 79%.[13.54]
Tech-Savviness sorted groups
Risky Share
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Tech-Savviness
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
Ris
ky S
hare
(%
)
Risky Share i = 38.24 + 12.9 Tech-Savviness i ; R2 = 71%.[11.00]
Tech-Savviness sorted groups
Portfolio Volatility σW
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Tech-Savviness
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
2.1
2.2
Por
tfolio
Vol
atili
ty
W (
%)
Wi = 1.53 + 0.43 Tech-Savviness i ; R2 = 38%.
[5.52]
Tech-Savviness sorted groups
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 23 / 33
FinTech Adoption and Risk-Taking
Individual Risk-Taking on Individual FinTech SavvinessParticipate Risky Share Portfolio Volatility (σw)
Tech-Savviness 0.127*** 0.239*** 0.131*** 0.146*** 0.431*** 0.446***(10.47) (17.94) (7.65) (7.80) (4.76) (4.59)
σc 0.037*** 0.019*** 0.052*** 0.018*** 0.345*** 0.163***(7.37) (3.69) (7.87) (2.72) (8.43) (4.07)
Log(C) 0.076*** 0.031*** 0.128***(30.06) (9.03) (5.46)
Female -0.067*** -0.102*** -0.542***(-12.24) (-15.12) (-15.52)
Log(Age) 0.007 -0.171*** -0.861***(0.57) (-11.11) (-10.50)
City FE Y Y Y Y Y YAdjusted R2 0.004 0.024 0.006 0.025 0.004 0.016N 50,000 50,000 28,393 28,393 28,393 28,393
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 24 / 33
FinTech Adoption and Risk-Taking
Individual Risk-Taking on Individual FinTech SavvinessParticipate Risky Share Portfolio Volatility (σw)
Tech-Savviness 0.127*** 0.239*** 0.131*** 0.146*** 0.431*** 0.446***(10.47) (17.94) (7.65) (7.80) (4.76) (4.59)
σc 0.037*** 0.019*** 0.052*** 0.018*** 0.345*** 0.163***(7.37) (3.69) (7.87) (2.72) (8.43) (4.07)
Log(C) 0.076*** 0.031*** 0.128***(30.06) (9.03) (5.46)
Female -0.067*** -0.102*** -0.542***(-12.24) (-15.12) (-15.52)
Log(Age) 0.007 -0.171*** -0.861***(0.57) (-11.11) (-10.50)
City FE Y Y Y Y Y YAdjusted R2 0.004 0.024 0.006 0.025 0.004 0.016N 50,000 50,000 28,393 28,393 28,393 28,393
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 24 / 33
FinTech Adoption and Risk-Taking
Risk-Taking on FinTech Savviness, Change on Change∆Participate ∆Risky Share ∆Trade Propensity
∆Tech Savviness 0.014** 0.087*** 0.025***(2.08) (5.30) (6.60)
σc 0.009** -0.010 0.000(2.23) (-1.32) (0.09)
Log(C) 0.013*** 0.000 -0.002**(8.25) (0.10) (-2.13)
Female -0.025*** -0.004 0.000(-8.31) (-0.68) (-0.076)
Log(Age) -0.041*** 0.012 -0.005**(-5.98) (0.98) (-2.05)
City FE Y Y YAdjusted R2 0.004 0.154 0.001N 50,000 28,393 50,000
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 25 / 33
FinTech Adoption and Risk-TakingRisk-Taking on FinTech Savviness, Conditioning on Individual Heterogeneity
Participate Risky Share Portfolio Volatility σwTech-Savviness×σc 0.061** 0.047* 0.029 0.015 0.434** 0.381**
(2.45) (1.86) (1.01) (0.51) (2.32) (2.01)Tech-Savviness×Log(C) 0.037*** 0.004 0.048
(3.40) (0.27) (0.55)Tech-Savviness×Female -0.063*** -0.036 -0.130
(-2.84) (-1.27) (-0.69)Tech-Savviness×Log(Age) -0.113** -0.106* -0.679**
(-2.52) (-1.91) (-2.19)Tech-Savviness 0.165*** 0.341** 0.111*** 0.486** -0.077 2.054
(5.08) (1.96) (2.58) (2.12) (-0.30) (1.55)σc -0.013 -0.005 0.002 0.010 -0.074 -0.043
(-1.04) (-0.41) (0.13) (0.55) (-0.66) (-0.38)Controls & City FE Y Y Y Y Y YAdjusted R2 0.024 0.024 0.025 0.036 0.016 0.016N 50,000 50,000 28,393 28,393 28,393 28,393
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 26 / 33
Optimal Alignment of Consumption and Investment
All Active Users
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Normalized Consumption Volatility C
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Nor
mal
ized
Por
tfolio
Vol
atili
ty
W
Wi = 6.54 + 0.79
Ci ; R2 = 62%.
[9.02]
C sorted groups
High and Low FinTech Adoption
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Normalized Consumption Volatility C
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Nor
mal
ized
Por
tfolio
Vol
atili
ty
W High FinTech: Wi = 6.23 + 0.91
Ci ; R2 = 77%.
[8.86]
Low FinTech: Wi = 6.65 + 0.58
Ci ; R2 = 45%.
[4.42]
High FinTech AdoptionLow FinTech Adoption
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 27 / 33
Which Component of Consumption is More Informative?
Dependent Variable: Portfolio Volatility σwBasic Development Enjoy
Tech-Savviness 0.438*** 0.143 0.467*** -0.103 0.464*** 0.151(4.43) (0.78) (4.80) (-0.31) (4.76) (0.45)
σc 0.049** -0.032 0.052** -0.053 0.025 -0.034(2.50) (-0.60) (2.37) (-0.87) (1.25) (-0.56)
Tech-Savviness×σc 0.147* 0.193* 0.112(1.72) (1.85) (1.00)
Log(C) -0.555*** -0.554*** -0.569*** -0.568*** -0.578*** -0.578***(-15.23) (-15.24) (-16.53) (-16.54) (-16.61) (-16.62)
Female -0.855*** -0.856*** -0.860*** -0.861*** -0.882*** -0.881***(-10.51) (-10.54) (-10.59) (-10.60) (-10.61) (-10.59)
Log(Age) 0.127*** 0.128*** 0.110*** 0.108*** 0.125*** 0.123***(5.46) (5.46) (4.63) (4.52) (5.32) (5.30)
City FE Y Y Y Y Y YAdjusted R2 0.0156 0.0157 0.0155 0.0157 0.0154 0.0155N 28,393 28,393 28,393 28,393 28,393 28,393
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 28 / 33
Improved Risk-Taking in Which Asset Classes?
Dependent Variable: Participation in Asset ClassBond Mixed Equity Index QDII Gold
Tech-Savviness 0.040*** 0.015 0.149*** 0.115*** 0.045*** 0.021 0.072*** 0.046*** 0.024*** 0.002 0.140*** 0.115***(7.37) (0.96) (14.03) (4.67) (7.96) (1.56) (9.85) (2.75) (6.93) (0.17) (18.11) (6.23)
Tech-Savviness×σc 0.021* 0.028 0.019** 0.021 0.019** 0.021(1.79) (1.38) (1.89) (1.57) (2.21) (1.43)
σc 0.003 -0.008 0.020*** 0.006 0.011*** 0.001 0.016*** 0.004 0.004** -0.006 -0.004 -0.016*(0.95) (-1.24) (4.60) (0.53) (3.68) (0.11) (4.75) (0.57) (2.15) (-1.34) (-1.09) (-1.75)
Log(C) 0.016*** 0.016*** 0.054*** 0.054*** 0.017*** 0.017*** 0.030*** 0.030*** 0.010*** 0.010*** 0.030*** 0.030***(12.66) (12.65) (25.71) (25.72) (13.18) (13.21) (13.66) (13.64) (11.16) (11.16) (15.32) (15.33)
Female -0.003 -0.003 -0.048*** -0.048*** -0.020*** -0.020*** -0.039*** -0.039*** -0.012*** -0.012*** -0.045*** -0.045***(-1.12) (-1.08) (-10.68) (-10.58) (-8.14) (-8.11) (-12.77) (-12.76) (-6.81) (-6.74) (-14.77) (-14.76)
Log(Age) 0.022*** 0.022*** 0.039*** 0.039*** 0.001 0.001 -0.013 -0.013 0.001 0.001 -0.034*** -0.034***(4.98) (4.97) (3.65) (3.65) (0.22) (0.21) (-1.55) (-1.56) (0.39) (0.37) (-5.08) (-5.10)
City FE Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y YR2 0.0036 0.0037 0.0186 0.0187 0.0058 0.0059 0.0107 0.0107 0.0048 0.0049 0.0153 0.0154N 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 29 / 33
Which Cities Benefit More from FinTech Advancements?
Level
0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7City Tech-Penetration
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Risk
y Sh
are
(%)
Low Coverage: Risky Share=0.28+0.57 Tech-Penetration [2.62]; R2 =5%
High Coverage: Risky Share=0.55+0.01 Tech-Penetration [0.07]; R2 =0%
Low Bank CoverageHigh Bank Coverage
Change
0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10Change in City Tech Penetration
-50
-35
-20
-5
10
25
40
55
70
Chan
ge in
Risk
y Sh
are
(%)
Low Coverage: ∆ Risky Share=-0.11+2.33∆ Tech Penetration[2.82]; R2 =8%
High Coverage: ∆ Risky Share=-0.01-0.74∆ Tech Penetration [1.90]; R2 =3%
Low Bank CoverageHigh Bank Coverage
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 30 / 33
Which Cities Benefit More from FinTech Advancements?
Individual Risk-Taking on City-Level Tech-PenetrationParticipate Risky Share Portfolio Volatility σw
Tech-Penetration 0.272*** 0.212*** 0.207*** 0.304*** 0.310** 0.254* 0.759** 0.676 0.594(3.51) (2.92) (2.84) (2.64) (2.25) (1.89) (2.17) (1.60) (1.41)
Tech-Penetration*Log(#Branch) -0.048 -0.546*** -0.803**(-0.69) (-4.26) (-2.00)
Log(#Branch) -0.002 0.02 -0.018 0.229*** -0.033 0.331*(-0.26) (0.62) (-1.52) (3.88) (-0.89) (1.78)
Log(GDP) 0.01 0.011 -0.018 -0.006 0.007 0.024(1.04) (1.13) (-0.99) (-0.33) (0.12) (0.44)
Log(Population) -0.009 -0.009 0.033*** 0.034*** 0.01 0.01(-1.36) (-1.35) (2.73) (2.84) (0.26) (0.28)
Log(Income) 0.010* 0.011** 0.013 0.024** 0.047 0.063*(1.87) (1.98) (1.30) (2.36) (1.48) (1.94)
CityLevel=1 0.037 0.042 -0.011 0.042 0.009 0.088(0.95) (1.05) (-0.15) (0.58) (0.04) (0.38)
Constant 0.206*** 0.234*** 0.238*** 0.398*** 0.395*** 0.437*** 0.847*** 0.887*** 0.948***(5.21) (6.66) (6.69) (7.10) (5.91) (6.65) (4.98) (4.32) (4.59)
Observations 287 287 287 287 287 287 287 287 287R-squared 0.065 0.113 0.115 0.024 0.058 0.116 0.016 0.03 0.044
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 31 / 33
Which Cities Benefit More from FinTech Advancements?
Individual Risk-Taking on City-Level Tech-Penetration, Change on Change∆Participate ∆Risky Share ∆Trade Propensity
∆Tech-Penetration 0.149* 0.090 1.469** 0.400 0.084** 0.056(1.76) (1.07) (2.44) (0.99) (2.03) (1.40)
Log(#Branch) -0.002 0.005 -0.019 0.103*** 0.000 0.003(-1.53) (1.25) (-1.19) (3.63) (-0.40) (1.27)
∆Tech-Penetration*Log(#Branch) -0.150* -2.714*** -0.071*(-1.81) (-4.79) (-1.68)
Log(GDP) 0.004* 0.003 -0.018 -0.034* -0.001 -0.001(1.66) (1.39) (-0.92) (-1.78) (-0.69) (-1.02)
Log(Population) -0.002 -0.002 0.019* 0.017* 0.000 0.000(-1.10) (-1.13) (1.77) (1.67) (0.14) (0.08)
Log(Income) 0.001 0.001 0.022* 0.015 0.000 0.000(0.91) (0.60) (1.84) (1.53) (0.15) (-0.06)
CityLevel=1 0.004 0.001 -0.001 -0.053** 0.004** 0.002(1.08) (0.30) (-0.04) (-2.25) (1.97) (1.32)
Constant 0.052*** 0.054*** -0.079*** -0.046*** -0.002 -0.001(15.04) (16.00) (-3.86) (-3.16) (-0.94) (-0.42)
Observations 287 287 287 287 287 287R-squared 0.034 0.042 0.105 0.207 0.036 0.045
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 32 / 33
Conclusions
We study how FinTech can help households move toward optimal risk-taking:▶ FinTech adoption improves risk-taking, more for risk-tolerant individuals.▶ FinTech can help improve the alignment of risk-taking and consumption.▶ Cities with low banking coverage benefit more from FinTech penetration.
Interpretations of our findings:▶ FinTech convenience reduces physical costs, increasing participation.▶ Repeated usage of Alipay builds familiarity and trust, increasing risk-taking.
Future of FinTech:▶ Brighter for emerging economies lacking financial infrastructures.▶ From Tech to Fin, more content building.
Luohan Academy Webinar FinTech Adoption and Household Risk-Taking Jun Pan 33 / 33