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Lahore University of Management Sciences
FINN 32X ‐ Financial Econometrics I Fall Semester 2015
Instructor Syed Zahid Ali
Room No. 247 Economics Wing First Floor
Office Hours TBA
Email [email protected]
Telephone Ext. 8074
Secretary/TA Khalid Pervaiz
TA Office Hours TBA
Course URL (if any) Suraj.lums.edu.pk
COURSE BASICS Credit Hours 4
Lecture(s) 2 Lec (s) Per Week Duration 110 minutes
Recitation/Lab (per week) Nbr of Lec(s) Per Week Duration
Tutorial (per week) Nbr of Lec(s) Per Week TBA Duration
COURSE DISTRIBUTION Core
Elective Yes
Open for Student Category 3rd and 4th year students
Close for Student Category
COURSE DESCRIPTION
The course is designed for 3rd and fourth year students who have already taken a basic econometrics course and has done at least one course in finance. MBA students are also allowed to take this course. The course mostly revolve around the techniques which are required to make use of financial data. The main focus is on the empirical techniques which are commonly used in the analysis of financial markets and how they are applied to actual data. The course starts with the overview of the basic econometrics techniques such as OLS estimation and testing of hypothesis. In the second module we will discuss models such as AR MA and ARMA which are quite popular for time series analysis etc. In the third module we will focus on techniques required to make prediction. In this context we will learn model such as ARCH and GARCH models etc. In the fourth module we will extend our analysis for more than one asset and estimate models such as VAR and VEC. In the fifth module we will discuss switching models to take into account the seasonalities in financial markets.
COURSE PREREQUISITE(S)
Principles of Finance (FINN 100)
Probability & Statistics (DISC 203)
Lahore University of Management Sciences
COURSE LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Upon successful completion of the course, students should be able to:
1. Develop an understanding of basic techniques to do empirical investigation of financial data.
2. Understand the properties of financial returns 3. Enable students to test various theories of finance such as standard asset pricing models
4. Understand the principles of autoregressive time series models and evaluate their ability to forecast
financial variables
5. Understand ARCH and GARCH models and be able to apply them to financial time series
6. Estimate Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models and interpret the results
7. Estimate models involving seasonalities
LEARNING OUTCOMES
Moreover, students should also learn to:
Work independently and in teams (for group assignments) Evaluate critically and apply financial models to solve real world problems
UNDERGRADUATE PROGRAM LEARNING GOALS & OBJECTIVES
General Learning Goals & Objectives Goal 1 –Effective Written and Oral Communication Objective: Students will demonstrate effective writing and oral communication skills Goal 2 –Ethical Understanding and Reasoning Objective: Students will demonstrate that they are able to identify and address ethical issues in an organizational context. Goal 3 – Analytical Thinking and Problem Solving Skills Objective: Students will demonstrate that they are able to identify key problems and generate viable solutions. Goal 4 – Application of Information Technology Objective: Students will demonstrate that they are able to use current technologies in business and management context. Goal 5 – Teamwork in Diverse and Multicultural Environments Objective: Students will demonstrate that they are able to work effectively in diverse environments. Goal 6 – Understanding Organizational Ecosystems Objective: Students will demonstrate that they have an understanding of Economic, Political, Regulatory, Legal, Technological, and Social environment of organizations. Major Specific Learning Goals & Objectives Goal 7 (a) – Discipline Specific Knowledge and Understanding Objective: Students will demonstrate knowledge of key business disciplines and how they interact including application to real world situations (including subject knowledge). Goal 7 (b) – Understanding the “science” behind the decision‐making process (for MGS Majors) Objective: Students will demonstrate ability to analyze a business problem, design and apply appropriate decision‐support tools, interpret results and make meaningful recommendations to support the decision‐maker
Lahore University of Management Sciences
Indicate below how the course learning objectives specifically relate to any program learning goals and objectives.
PROGRAM LEARNING GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
COURSE LEARNING OBJECTIVES COURSE ASSESSMENT ITEM
Goal 1 –Effective Written and Oral Communication
e.g.(Provide student opportunity to demonstrate effective communication) CLO #
Quizzes and homework
Goal 2 –Ethical Understanding and Reasoning
Goal 3 – Analytical Thinking and Problem Solving Skills
Class participation
Goal 4 – Application of Information Technology
Home work will be based on EViews + STATA + RATS Programming
Goal 5 – Teamwork in Diverse and Multicultural Environments
Goal 6 – Understanding Organizational Ecosystems
Goal 7 (a) – Discipline Specific Knowledge and Understanding
Exams Quizzes + Mid + Final
Goal 7 (b) – Understanding the “science” behind the decision‐making process
Exams Quizzes + Mid + Final
GRADING BREAKUP AND POLICY Assignment(s): Home Work: 20% Quiz(s): 20% Midterm Examination: 25% Final Examination: 35%
EXAMINATION DETAIL
Midterm Exam
Yes/No: YES Combine Separate: Combine Duration: 120 minutes Preferred Date: Exam Specifications: closed books and closed notes
Final Exam
Yes/No: YES Combine Separate: Combine Duration: 120 minutes Exam Specifications: closed books closed notes
Lahore University of Management Sciences
COURSE OVERVIEW
WEEK/ LECTURE/ MODULE
TOPICS RECOMMENDED
READINGS SESSION OBJECTIVE(S)
1
Overview of Basic Econometrics
Deriving the OLS estimates
Algebraic properties
Deriving statistical properties:
mean and variance
Testing of hypothesis
Multiple regression and testing
of hypothesis
Application to CAPM model
Chapter 2&3 (HGL), and chapter 3&4(CB) Chapter
Understanding the framework of basic econometrics and testing of hypothesis
2,3
Regression with Time‐Series Data
MA process
AR process
ARMA process
stationary and non‐stationary variables
Testing for unit roots (Dickey‐Fuller Test)
Testing asset pricing models
Chapter 12 (HGL), and chapter 5&7 (CB)
Learning Time series analysis
4,5
Modelling Volatility
ARCH
GARCH
EGARCH and other variations
Recent advances in volatility estimation using high frequency data ‐ realized volatility
Chapter 14 (HGL), and chapter 8 (CB)
Measurement of Time Varying Volatility
6
Predicting risk and returns for multiple assets
Vector error correction models (VEC)
Vector autoregressive models (VAR)
Time varying variance covariance matrices.
Estimating impulse response functions
Chapter 13 (HGL), and chapter 6 (CB)
Analysis for more than one Asset
7
Switching Model
Seasonalities in financial markets
Modelling seasonality in financial data
Estimating simple piecewise linear functions
Chapter 7 (HGL) and Chapter 9 (CB)
Introduction of Qualitative variables
Lahore University of Management Sciences
Markow switching models
Applications of Markow switching models
Textbook(s)/Supplementary Readings
1. Chris Brooks 2002. Introductory Econometrics for Finance (CB)
2. Hill, Griffith, and Lim 2011. Principles of Econometrics. 4rh edition (HGL)
3. Walter Enders (2003). Applied econometric time series, Wiley.